Updated NCAA Title Odds – Where Is The Value?
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the undisputed #1 ranked team in the country, boasting a 24-0 record, but they aren’t the favorite to win the title. The updated odds from the Westgate Casino in Las Vegas show that it’s Kentucky as the favorite, paying out just 6-1. UCLA, Duke, Kansas and Villanova are all paying less than 10-1 odds to win the tournament. Gonzaga might seem like a better bet paying out at 10-1, but anyone who’s watched the tournament in recent seasons knows that there’s a good reason why they call it “March Madness”.
When I look for value in the NCAA futures market, I start with the teams paying out at least 20-1. Anything less than that is simply not worth the risk in my opinion. Roughly half the teams in the Top 25 are paying out 20-1 or better, leaving us with plenty to look at. I have one team in mind that I believe has a far better chance than the rest. To find out who I’m picking to win this year’s tournament, simply signup to my newsletter at www.JesseSchule.com
| TEAM | OPENING ODDS | UPDATED ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 9-2 | 8-1 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 6-1 | 6 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 10-1 | 8 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 8-1 | 8 |
| Oregon Ducks | 20-1 | 12 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 15-1 | 12 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 12-1 | 50 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 10-1 | 15 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 20-1 | 25 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 20-1 | 12 |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 20-1 | 60 |
| Xavier Musketeers | 20-1 | 200 |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 30-1 | 15 |
| Syracuse Orange | 80-1 | 100 |
| UCLA Bruins | 80-1 | 7 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 40-1 | 40 |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 30-1 | 25 |
| Maryland Terrapins | 40-1 | 100 |
| Connecticut Huskies | 40-1 | 2000 |
| Texas Longhorns | 60-1 | 1000 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | 80-1 | 10 |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 50-1 | 100 |
| Miami Hurricanes | 50-1 | 300 |
| California Golden Bears | 200-1 | 300 |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 80-1 | 300 |
| Baylor Bears | 80-1 | 25 |
| Utah Utes | 80-1 | 300 |
| Butler Bulldogs | 80-1 | 50 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 100-1 | 200 |
| Wichita State Shockers | 100-1 | 100 |
| Florida Gators | 100-1 | 30 |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 100-1 | 100 |
| Creighton Bluejays | 200-1 | 60 |
| USC Trojans | 200-1 | 200 |
| Florida State Seminoles | 200-1 | 30 |
| St. Mary’s Gaels | 200-1 | 80 |
| Rhode Island Rams | 300-1 | 300 |
| NC State Wolfpack | 300-1 | 2000 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 100-1 | 2000 |
| Seton Hall Pirates | 50-1 | 300 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 80-1 | 5000 |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 100-1 | 2000 |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 100-1 | 1000 |
| VCU Rams | 200-1 | 300 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 200-1 | 50 |
| Georgetown Hoyas | 200-1 | 1000 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 200-1 | 1000 |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 200-1 | 1000 |
| Dayton Flyers | 200-1 | 200 |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 200-1 | 1000 |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 200-1 | 100 |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 200-1 | 500 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 200-1 | 1000 |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 300-1 | 500 |
| Harvard Crimson | 200-1 | 1000 |
| SMU Mustangs | 100-1 | 100 |
| Auburn Tigers | 300-1 | 2000 |
| Oregon State Beavers | 300-1 | 9999 |
| BYU Cougars | 300-1 | 1000 |
| Clemson Tigers | 300-1 | 300 |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 300-1 | 300 |
| Providence Friars | 300-1 | 2000 |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 300-1 | 1000 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 300-1 | 9999 |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 300-1 | 100 |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 300-1 | 2000 |
| Colorado State Rams | 300-1 | 9999 |
| LSU Tigers | 300-1 | 9999 |
| Ole Miss Rebels | 300-1 | 9999 |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 300-1 | 500 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 300-1 | 500 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 300-1 | 500 |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 300-1 | 5000 |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 300-1 | 2000 |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 300-1 | 500 |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 300-1 | 2000 |
| Memphis Tigers | 300-1 | 1000 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | 300-1 | 300 |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 300-1 | 300 |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | 300-1 | 200 |
| Princeton Tigers | 300-1 | 500 |
| Boise State Broncos | 300-1 | 500 |
| Houston Cougars | 300-1 | 5000 |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 300-1 | 9999 |
| Davidson Wildcats | 300-1 | 1000 |
| Oakland Golden Grizzlies | 500-1 | 2000 |
| Washington Huskies | 500-1 | 2000 |
| Temple Owls | 500-1 | 9999 |
| St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 500-1 | 9999 |
| DePaul Blue Demons | 500-1 | 9999 |
| St. John’s Red Storm | 500-1 | 5000 |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 500-1 | 2000 |
| New Mexico Lobos | 500-1 | 2000 |
| Missouri Tigers | 500-1 | 9999 |
| Stanford Cardinal | 500-1 | 9999 |
| Field | 500-1 | 500 |
| UNLV Runnin’ Rebels | 300-1 | 9999 |
| Valparaiso Crusaders | 1000-1 | 500 |
| George Washington Colonials | 1000-1 | 5000 |
| Richmond Spiders | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| St. Joseph’s Hawks | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| U Mass Minutemen | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Yale Bulldogs | 1000-1 | 2000 |
| Monmouth Hawks | 1000-1 | 1000 |
| Iona Gaels | 1000-1 | 2000 |
| Northern Iowa Panthers | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Utah State Aggies | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders | 1000-1 | 500 |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Old Dominion Monarchs | 1000-1 | 2000 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 1000-1 | 2000 |
| Evansville Purple Aces | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Illinois State Redbirds | 1000-1 | 1000 |
| Akron Zips | 1000-1 | 1000 |
| Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Chattanooga Mocs | 1000-1 | 1000 |
| South Dakota State Jackrabbits | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| North Dakota State Bison | 1000-1 | 5000 |
| UT Arlington Mavericks | 1000-1 | 1000 |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 1000-1 | 1000 |
| Ohio Bobcats | 1000-1 | 1000 |
| Buffalo Bulls | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Toledo Rockets | 1000-1 | 9999 |
| Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns | 2000-1 | 2000 |
| Georgia State Panthers | 2000-1 | 5000 |
| Pepperdine Waves | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 2000-1 | 1000 |
| UAB Blazers | 2000-1 | 2000 |
| Weber State Wildcats | 2000-1 | 5000 |
| Montana Grizzlies | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Boston College Eagles | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| UTEP Miners | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Charlotte 49ers | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| UC Irvine Anteaters | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Long Beach State 49ers | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 2000-1 | 500 |
| Wyoming Cowboys | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Belmont Bruins | 2000-1 | 1000 |
| Washington State Cougars | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| IPFW Mastodons | 2000-1 | 2000 |
| Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 2000-1 | 1000 |
| Morehead State Eagles | 2000-1 | 9999 |
| Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | 2000-1 | 9999 |
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This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go under the total.
The Warriors haven't been as dominant this season as they have been in recent years, and they come into Denver trailing the Nuggets by a half game for top spot in the West. Denver has been successful thanks to their 4th best defense that allows just 105.5 points per game. History tells us that these teams have played strong defense in past meetings. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone under the total. Given that the winner of this game will take over first place in the Western Conference Standings, we could see a game with a playoff atmosphere. The under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 home games versus teams with a winning road record. I think tonight's total looks a little high.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on Over 139.5.
The Boilermakers are coming off an 84-80 win over Wisconsin, and high scoring games have been the norm for Purdue this year. They have gone over in six of their last eight overall, and the over is 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. They have scored 79.4 points per game in their last five overall, but they have also conceded more than 70 points per game during that span. They scored exactly 82 points in each of their last two home games against Rutgers. The over is 6-1 in the Scarlet Knights last seven versus the Big Ten. Purdue won the last meeting 82-75, and I expect a similar score tonight.
Take Over.
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Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total.
The Anaheim Ducks have lost 11 straight overall, and they come into the Motor City as a desperate hockey club. They are still in the hunt, just two points out of a playoff spot, so there's no reason to expect them to give up on the season just yet. Offense has been hard to come by for the Ducks, ranking 30th in the NHL in scoring. Goals have been hard to come by for Detroit as well, and that's especially true in previous meetings with the Ducks. Anaheim is 3-1 in the last four meetings, and Detroit has only scored six goals in those games. Three of the four games went under the total. The under is 8-3-2 in the Ducks last 13 overall, and 34-15-2 in their last 51 road games.
Take Under.
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Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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