USC vs. Penn State Betting Preview 01/02/17 – Rose Bowl Odds

December 28th, 2016

USC Trojans (9-3) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions 11-2) Betting Preview

Line/Odds: USC -6.5 (5dimes)
Total: 60
Time: 5:00 pm ET
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena CA.
Television Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Preview

These might be the two best teams that aren’t playing in the CFP. Both teams turned their seasons completely around after slow starts and both teams have victories over teams that are in the CFP.

The Trojans got off to a 1-3 start and made the decision to switch quarterbacks. In came freshman Sam Darnold and everything changed as he passed for over 2600 yards and threw 26 touchdown passes. The Trojans never looked back as they ran the table and won their last eight games including handing the Huskies their only loss of the year 26-13. Their defense also stepped up and held six of their last eight opponents to 20 points or less.

Penn State got off to a 2-2 start and then quarterback Trace McSorely led the Nittany Lions on a run that saw them win their last 9 games of the season including handing Ohio State their only loss. In the last two games he passed for a total of 760 yards and threw eight touchdowns without an interception in wins over Michigan State and then Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game. They have a great running back in Saquone Barkley who ran for over 1300 yards and scored 19 touchdowns. Their defense played very well during their streak as they held seven of the eight opponents to 24 points or less.

The oddsmakers opened up with USC as a 7.5 point favorite but it has been bet down to 6.5 while the total is set at 60 after being bet down from the opening 63. According to Covers.com Consensus Analysis 54% of the public like the idea of Penn State as a dog and are backing the Nittany Lions while 59% are impressed with both teams offenses and are behind the over.

The total has gone under in seven of USC’s last eight games overall and over in five of Penn State’s last six games overall.

Previous Meetings

01/01/09: Nittany Lions 24 @ Trojans 38
08/27/00: Trojans 29 @ Nittany Lions 5
08/25/96: Trojans 7 @ Nittany Lions 24

Trends

The Nittany Lions have covered the spread in their last eight games overall
The Trojans have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games overall.
The under is 5-2 in their last seven meetings.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
#Padres vs #Blue Jays	#Blue Jays +121	Premium	0-0	Push	0	Show
8*
Phillies vs Brewers	Brewers -162	Premium	1-9	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Miwaukee Brewers. The Brewers will look to avoid the sweep at home today in Game 3 versus Philly, and I like their chances with Brandon Woodruff on the hill. Woodruff (6-1, 3.51 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits, striking out six in eight innings in a 3-2 win at Atlanta his last time out. The Phillies are batting a combined .088 over 34 at bats against Woodruff. The Phillies hand the ball to Zack Eflin, who was roughed up by the Brewers earlier this season. He allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks in five innings in an 11-3 home loss to the Brewers just 10 days ago. Mike Moustakas was 3-for-5 with a home run in that game, and he's hit two home runs in the last three days. Take MIL. GL, Jesse Schule
Red Sox vs Astros	Astros -164	Premium	4-1	Loss	-164	Show
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros. The Astros look to break out the brooms today in Game 3 against Boston, and I like their chances with Justin Verlander on the mound. Verlander (8-1, 2.24 ERA) allowed a run on just one hit while striking out a dozen in eight innings in a home win over the White Sox his last time out. He's 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four home starts. The Bosox hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, who was hammered in a loss to the Blue Jays his last time out. He gave up six runs on six hits, including three home runs and three walks all in just five innings at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Astros own Rodriguez, batting a combined .333 over 48 at bats versus the left-hander. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
Reds vs Cubs	Cubs -156	Premium	10-2	Loss	-156	Show
This is an 8* play on the Cubs. After splitting a home series versus Philly, the Cubs are still 18-9 at Wrigley this season. They host the Reds in Game 3 of a new series Sunday, and Cincinnati is 11-17 on the road. Tanner Roark will toe the rubber for the Reds, and he's coming off a loss to the Dodgers. Prior to that he allowed three runs on eight hits in five innings in a 3-1 home loss to the Cubs. The Cubs hand the ball to Jose Quintana, who is normally pretty sharp at home. Quintana (4-3, 3.30 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings, allowing just two hits in a home win over Philly his last time out. He's 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA in five home starts this season. Take CHC. GL, Jesse Schule

SERVICE BIO

WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

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Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

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