Matt Fargo Premium Picks

This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BILLIKENS for our Thursday Free Play. St. Louis has won three straight games, all at home where it improved to 5-0 but has dropped both of its games when taking to the road. Both of those games were on a neutral floor however and this is the first true road game of the season which is typically a play against but the Billikens have a new arsenal. They went 2-2 prior to the three-game winning streak but those four games were played without Indiana St. transfer Robbie Aliva. He made his debut at the start of that homestand and his presence is being felt as he is averaging 17 ppg, 5.8 rpg and 4.2 apg while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor with everything at the same pace from his season with the Sycamores last year. San Francisco is off to a 6-2 start with the two losses being quality ones against Memphis and Clemson and the Dons remain home following a blowout win over Mercyhurst. They are coming off a third straight 20-win season and will be alive for another postseason berth after going to the NIT last season but we feel they are overpriced here against a full Billikens roster that is the favorite to win the Atlantic Ten Conference. 10* (779) St. Louis Billikens

NFL 43-33-3 Run. Over the last 2+ NFL Regular Seasons, Fargo is 168-134-4 (+$24,240). Divisional Game of the Month goes Thursday. 10-5 Hoops Run. THREE CBB Winners Thursday plus NBA action. CFB Game of the Year posted for Saturday

This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Cleveland has shaken off a home and home sweep against Atlanta with a big home win over Boston followed up by a 31-point win over Washington on Tuesday. The Cavaliers remain home where they are 12-1 while covering 10 of those games and while the schedule has been favorable, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. They are narrowly behind New York and Boston in Offensive Efficiency and coupled with their top ten defense, they are No. 2 in Net Efficiency. Denver is coming off a controversial win over Golden St. where it was able to sneak by thanks to a no call technical foul after calling a timeout it did not have to move to 11-8. That was just the Nuggets fifth win over a team with a winning record and of the 15 NBA teams with a positive differential in Net Efficiency, they are No. 13. The defense has struggled of late with a No. 25 ranking in Defensive Efficiency over their last five games. Here, we play on favorites with a +10 ppg scoring differential and coming off a win by 30 points or more going up against teams with a scoring differential of +/- 3 ppg. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1997 with a scoring differential of +14.6 ppg. 10* (538) Cleveland Cavaliers

This is a play on the UC IRVINE ANTEATERS for our CBB Conference Game of the Month. Typically, we do not see value in a big favorite but we have it here with the Anteaters. UC Irvine has ruled the Big West Conference the last two seasons and is expected to once again with the deepest and most experienced team with four returning starters while having to add only three new players to the roster. They are off to an 8-0 start which includes only two home games and they are back at SRC Arena for the first time since November 16 and a conference opener makes it even more of an edge. They have played an average schedule ranked No. 147 yet are No. 7 in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency partly due to a 61.1 percent Assist Rate and on top of that, they are hitting 85.2 percent of their free throws, tied for first in the country. CS Bakersfield comes in 4-4 with an also very veteran team but until the Roadrunners can win on the road, they are a fade. They are average on both ends of the floor and following a three-game winning streak at home, they have dropped three of their last four games, all away from home with the only win being an eight-point victory over Northeastern on a neutral floor in Fort Myers on a Sunday afternoon in front of an official attendance of 123 fans. Welcome to Irvine. 10* (774) UC Irvine Anteaters

This is a play on the XAVIER MUSKETEERS for our CBB Thursday Star Attraction. This is another situation we usually steer clear from and that is playing a team in its first true road game a month or more into the season but we make the exception with Xavier which is in a fantastic spot. The Musketeers opened the season 6-0 including solid wins against Wake Forest and South Carolina before getting run out of the gym against Michigan in Fort Myers. They were then challenged by South Carolina St. before sneaking out a three-point win and now hit the road for the first time in a not so daunting environment. Xavier is going to contend in the Big East Conference after finishing with just 16 wins last season, their fewest in four years. TCU made it to its third straight NCAA Tournament last season but is projected as a bottom half team in the Big 12 Conference this season and off to a 4-3 start. This is another spot we typically play on with the Horned Frogs having dropped six straight against the number but they cannot be trusted in this spot in this matchup. They are 4-0 at home but have been favored by at least 15 points in all of those with the best visitor being Texas St., resulting in just a five-point win. Xavier has huge edges in two big intangibles, free throw shooting and Assist Rate. 10* (763) Xavier Musketeers

This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CBB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. We are not usually a proponent of taking a road team in a conference opener but we did it with Bradley the other night and are doing it here with a team out to prove something. It was obviously a special season for the Boilermakers last year as they made it to the NCAA Championship game before falling to Connecticut by 15 points. They are off to a 7-1 start and their only loss came at Marquette which is a very solid team that suffered just their first loss last night. They are a rare team based on the normal standard of the rest of the country as the Boilermakers did not bring in a single player in the transfer portal instead keeping it a home grown roster which takes time. Penn St. is also 7-1 but has played a schedule ranked No. 338 compared to the Purdue schedule which is ranked No. 37. The Nittany Lions only loss came in Daytona Beach against Clemson which is certainly a quality team but the best win was against Virginia Tech in Baltimore. They are doing it right in the up tempo system of head coach Mike Rhoades as they are top five in scoring and shooting but again, that is against no one, and they were shut down against Clemson and now face a similar defense ranked No. 52 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. 10* (759) Purdue Boilermakers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Detroit continues to roll along as it is now 11-1 following a Thanksgiving win over Chicago and the Lions remain home to face another divisional foe. Detroit is now No. 4 in Offensive EPA and No. 1 in Defensive EPA and along with Philadelphia, Buffalo and Green Bay, they are the only teams ranked in the top ten on both sides of the ball. In terms of DVOA, Detroit is No. 1 in Net DVOA and the public will be lining up on their side come Thursday night with the short price. While they are solid all around, they have been a fortunate team as they are tied for No. 4 in the Luck Ratings. Green Bay came through last week in a no sweat win over Miami and the challenge gets tougher. The Packers at 9-3 are in third place in the NFC North which shows how strong this division has been and having already lost to the Lions, a win here gets them right back in it. As mentioned, the Packers are one of only four teams in the top ten on each side of EPA and they come in at No. 5 in Net DVOA. Along with the Eagles, they are the one team that can take down Detroit and despite a 10-point loss in the first meeting, they outgained the Lions 411-261 with a pick six being the difference. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 6.0 or more yppl, after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. 10* (101) Green Bay Packers