Sean Murphy - Betting Expert

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

I'm expecting some offense as the Twins and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis on Saturday night.

Bailey Ober will get another turn in the rotation for the Twins. He checks in sporting a 4.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with the 'over' having cashed in three of his four road starts this season. Given he averages just over four innings per start on the road we should see plenty of a Twins bullpen that has posted a collective 5.62 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 11 saves converted and eight blown in night games this season.

Jake Woodford will counter for the Cards. He's failed to make it through six innings in his first two starts, allowing 13 hits and four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings of work. Should he fail to work deep into the game again on Saturday we'll see plenty of a Cards 'pen that owns a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in night games this season. Take the over (7*).

MLB Daytime Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen consecutive low-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Anaheim on Saturday.

Left-hander Cole Irvin will take the ball for Oakland. The Angels will be getting their fourth look at him already this season. They enjoyed plenty of success in their first two tries against him before getting shut out over seven innings against him a couple of weeks ago (we actually won with the A's in that game). Note that the Angels have been a better offensive team both at home and against left-handed starting pitching this season. Prior to getting shut out the last two nights, the Halos had scored 23 runs in their previous four contests. Irvin has generally been weaker in day games this season, recording a 4.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts.

Behind Irvin is an uneven A's bullpen that has posted a collective 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road this season with 12 saves converted and 10 blown.

Jaime Barria will counter for Los Angeles. He pitched well in his first start of the season last time out but going back further has generally struggled at the big league level. The A's didn't do much against him back in 2018 but then in 2019 scored five runs, four of them earned, in just four innings. Note that the A's have actually been a better offensive team on the road than at home this season.

The real key to the A's success here could be the way they match up against the Angels bullpen. Los Angeles hasn't had a day off since July 21st and its 'pen has struggled all season, particularly in day games where it owns a collective 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with nine saves converted and five blown. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on San Diego over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

We're dealing with a fairly high price to back the Padres in this bounce-back spot on Saturday but I feel the line could be even higher.

German Marquez will take the ball for Colorado. He has generally struggled against the Padres over the course of his career, with a 4.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, however he did toss seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory here at Petco Park the last time he faced them on July 10th. With that being said, he brings poor form into this start, having allowed seven earned runs on 15 hits over just 12 1/3 innings in his last two outings and now will have to pitch on just four days' rest. The Rockies have won just two of his eight road starts this season. There's no question he could be carrying some disappointment as well having not been traded to a contending team prior to the trade deadline.

Marquez averages six innings per start on the road this season and behind him is a Rockies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with just seven saves converted and eight blown away from home. Colorado hasn't enjoyed an off day since July 22nd.

Yu Darvish will counter for San Diego. He hasn't been pitching well but has also made three of his last four starts on the road. Here at home he owns a 2.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts this season with the Padres winning 10 of those. The last time he faced the Rockies at home he tossed seven shutout innings, striking out 10 along the way. Note that Darvish will be pitching on a full five days' rest.

The Padres bullpen has been overworked this season but did enjoy an off day earlier this week and has still held up well, recording a collective 2.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 23 saves converted and only seven blown at home this season. Take San Diego (5*).

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams to open this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon, at least in the early going.

Zack Greinke will take the ball for Houston. He's always seemed to have the Giants number, most recently holding them to one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last August. Greinke owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in nine road starts this season and makes Saturday's start on a full five days' rest. Also note that he has recorded a 3.03 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five daytime outings this season.

By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid an Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 4.35 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 12 saves converted and 11 blown (entering last night's action).

Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. He helped the Giants avoid a sweep at the hands of the Pirates in his most recent start and has recorded a 3.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. In daytime starts he has posted an even better 2.79 ERA, albeit to go along with a less than impressive 1.40 WHIP. Take the first five innings under.

Sean's 85-57 (+$1.2K) MLB run continues with a BIG TICKET o/u winner on Saturday afternoon - his 10* Daytime Total of the Month for July! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!