Sean Murphy - Betting Expert

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Diamondbacks as they look to take the opener of this divisional series against the Giants. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb on Monday. He's enjoying another terrific season and comes off a terrific month of June. With that being said, I think it's worth noting that four of his five outings in June came in the friendly confines of Oracle Park in San Francisco. The Giants are just 1-4 in his last five road starts. Ryne Nelson starts for Arizona and has pitched well lately, allowing just two earned runs in his last three starts, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. The D'Backs won each of those three games despite the last two coming on the road. Finally, we'll note that the Giants bullpen has been a mess lately, sporting a 6.53 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last week. While the D'Backs 'pen hasn't been much better, Arizona isn't the team being asked to lay 1.5 runs in this spot. Take Arizona +1.5 runs.

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

Athletics starter Jacob Lopez hasn't gotten enough credit for his recent stretch. He's faced the Royals, Astros and Tigers in succession and has given up just one earned run in 19 innings of work and that's with two of those starts coming on the road. Given the way he's settled in, I look for the A's to hang tough at Steinbrenner Field on Monday. Drew Rasmussen has admittedly pitched well for the Rays this season. With that being said, he hasn't lasted beyond 5 1/3 innings in any of his last three starts and the Rays are just 2-2 over his last four outings when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Note that Tampa Bay's bullpen has imploded lately, sporting a 9.33 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last week - leaving the back door wide open should we need it with the insurance run in our back pocket. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

The Blue Jays return home off a successful series in Boston but I look for them to get tripped up in the opener of their four-game set against the Yankees on Monday. New York will send left-hander Carlos Rodon to the hill. He bounced back from a bit of a rough stretch by silencing the Reds over six innings last time out. On the season, Rodon has posted a 3.50 FIP and 0.97 WHIP while going 9-5. I like the way he matches up against the Blue Jays lineup. Max Scherzer will counter for Toronto. He didn't look good in his first start back after a long stint on the I.L. last week in Cleveland. He's been tagged for five earned runs in just eight big league innings this season and draws a tough matchup here. Neither bullpen has been particularly effective lately so we'll give the nod to the visiting Yankees with a decisive starting pitching advantage. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh over St. Louis at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

Is it time to start believing in the Pirates? They're playing some of their best baseball of the season right now and check in off a series sweep of the Mets at home. I like their chances of keeping it going on Monday as they send left-hander Andrew Heaney to the hill against Erick Fedde of the Cardinals. Heaney has gotten rocked in his last two starts but both of those came on the road. I think he can find success back at PNC Park, where he owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in seven starts this season. Heaney will be facing a Cardinals lineup that has had a tough time against southpaw pitching recently and doesn't travel particularly well. Fedde got lit up last time out and while he's been serviceable for the Cards this season, his 4.49 FIP and 1.36 WHIP still leave a lot to be desired. Both bullpens have been terrific lately but the Buccos' relief corps has certainly been better at home than the Cards' bullpen has been on the road. Take Pittsburgh (8*).