Sean Murphy - Betting Expert

Friday CFB Free play. My selection is on UTEP over Louisiana Tech at 9 pm et on Friday.

The Miners have been one of the biggest disappointments in college football so far this season, dropping four of their first five games including an ugly 45-28 defeat against UNLV in front of the home faithful last Saturday. I do think UTEP is considerably better than it has shown and this sets up as a 'get right' spot at home against a mediocre Louisiana Tech squad. QB Gavin Hardison is questionable for the Miners on Friday but I think this is a game where they can let their backfield go to work behind an offensive line that has too much talent and experience to struggle the way it has. Louisiana Tech has been ripped for 5.2 yards per rush this season. The Bulldogs generally have a built-in advantage playing at home in Ruston but take them on the road and they tend to struggle. Note that Louisiana Tech has lost eight straight games ATS on the road against conference foes. Meanwhile, UTEP has had a tendency to bounce back following poor defensive showings, outscoring foes by an average margin of 2.8 points and allowing just 19.3 points per contest after giving up 37 points or more in its previous game, as is the case here, over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up six times). Take UTEP.

My selection is on Chicago over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Cubs margin for error is razor-thin at this point after they were swept in a three-game series in Atlanta. The good news is, they're heading to Milwaukee to face a Brewers club that wrapped up the N.L. Central title earlier this week and will be looking to give some of their regular starters some rest during this series. I do think Chicago has the right guy on the mound to end its losing skid on Friday as it hands the ball to veteran Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs are a perfect 4-0 in his last four outings against the Brewers. Current Milwaukee hitters have gone a woeful 34-for-152 (.224) with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks against Hendricks. He deserved better than the loss he received in his most recent outing as he gave up three earned runs, only one of them earned, over six innings against the Pirates. The fact that Hendricks hasn't allowed a home run in seven of his last eight starts is a good indicator that he's in solid form down the stretch. Colin Rea will counter for Milwaukee. He was demoted to the bullpen following his last start. Rea pitched reasonably well earlier in the season but has seen his FIP rise to 5.07 thanks to a rough stretch this month. He lasted fewer than five innings in each of his four September starts. It's difficult to get a sense for how Cubs hitters will fare against Rea as only Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario have seen him previously (a combined three at-bats). The Brewers bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Cubs this season but I question how Milwaukee will handle its key relief arms (likely very carefully) in this series with the playoffs on the horizon. Take Chicago (8*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday.

The Reds pitching has let them down during a 2-5 skid, essentially taking them out of serious contention for a Wild Card spot. Over that stretch they've allowed 7, 5, 7, 13, 2, 7 and 4 runs. While the Cardinals are simply playing out the string at this point and scored just two runs in consecutive losses to the Brewers over the last two days, I do think they get a bit of a lift returning home for their final series of the season. Neither starter is likely to pitch the lights out on Friday. Brandon Williamson has had a fine rookie season for the Reds but his 4.57 FIP and 1.29 WHIP, not to mention a strikeout rate of just 7.8 per nine innings, leave a lot to be desired. Current Cardinals hitters have a collective seven-at-bats against Williamson with two hits, three walks and no strikeouts. Jake Woodford will counter for St. Louis. He owns a 5.82 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 46 innings at the big league level this year. Current Reds hitters are 7-for-26 off of Woodford with just four strikeouts to go along with three walks. Both bullpens enter in poor form and have combined to blow a whopping 50 saves this season. Take the over.

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Friday.

This is a massive revenge game for Oregon State after it dropped a lopsided 42-16 decision on the road against Utah last October. Not only that but the Beavers will be looking to bounce back from last week's debacle on the road against Washington State, in which they gave up a whopping 38 points and lost by a field goal. I do think Oregon State is a much better defensive team than it showed in that contest. Meanwhile, Utah was bailed out by its defense in last week's 14-7 snoozefest victory over UCLA. The Utes offense managed just north of 2.0 yards per rush and 117 yards through the air in that game. Clearly, Utah is missing QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe. Their injury situations remain veiled in a cloud of mystery on a weekly basis. This is a game where I expect the Beavers to go to work with their ground attack and rely on their defense to come up with just enough splash plays to secure the victory by margin. Note that Oregon State is on a perfect 9-0 ATS run at home against Pac-12 opponents and those games haven't been particularly close as the Beavers have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.6 points along the way. The last time these two teams met in Corvallis two years ago the Beavers rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to win by a score of 42-34. I expect this one to be a little more straight-forward. Take Oregon State (10*).