Sean Murphy - Betting Expert

My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

We successfully faded the Flames in their 3-2 loss to the Golden Knights on Thursday and we'll do so again here, albeit on the puck-line with the underdog Sharks. San Jose comes off a 7-2 beatdown in Vancouver two nights ago. Keep in mind, it is just one-game removed from an overtime loss against the red hot Oilers in Edmonton so it's not as if the Sharks have completely folded at this late stage of the season. Here, San Jose will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak in this series. Note that the Flames hadn't won three consecutive meetings with the Sharks since 2015 prior to their current streak. To find the last time Calgary took four straight games against San Jose you would have to go all the way back to 2008. That's not to mention the fact that the Flames last three victories over the Sharks have all come by at least two goals. Note that San Jose is a respectable 17-15 when playing on the road after allowing three or more goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals in that spot. As bad as things have gone for them this season, they're 9-4 when playing on the road after allowing four or more goals in back-to-back games, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by 0.6 goals on average along the way. We can even take it one step farther, noting that San Jose has won all four games when playing away from home after giving up five or more goals in each of its last two contests this season, as is the case here. The Sharks have outscored opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Flames season is quickly circling the drain at this point and we'll note that they're just 8-15 when coming off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that spot. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*).

Saturday NBA Free play. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday.

The Clippers managed to split their two-game set against the Thunder earlier this week after losing Paul George to injury. Kawhi Leonard went off on Thursday against Oklahoma City, knocking down 13-of-15 field goal attempts in the lopsided victory. Here, I expect the Clips to be in tough against a Pelicans squad that has quietly clawed its way almost all the way back to .500. New Orleans checks in having held nine of its last 12 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Los Angeles knocked down 47 field goals in Thursday's win but that was its highest total since March 3rd against Sacramento. I'm anticipating some regression in that department here. Interestingly, the Clippers haven't shown any ability (or interest) in slowing their opponents' tempo in recent weeks and months, allowing nine of their last 13 foes to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. While Los Angeles will be looking to avenge an earlier loss to the Pelicans (back in October), it's worth noting that it has gone just 4-13 ATS this season when that previous defeat came by double-digits, as is the case here, and it is just 19-31 ATS seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Take New Orleans.

Sean has WON in 7 of the L8 days after a 3-1 card on Friday! His RED HOT 8-1 NBA run and 11-4 NCAA Tournament record will be tested on Saturday; make sure you're on board!

My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Nets 'over' in the front half of their two-game set with the Cavs earlier this week (the second matchup went 'over' the total as well). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Brooklyn heads to Miami to face the surging Heat on Saturday, however. Note that the Nets squeezed about as much as they could out of their offense last time out but still produced 'only' 114 points in a narrow loss to Cleveland. Brooklyn has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of its last five games. On a positive note, the Nets have topped out at 42 made field goals allowed over their last four contests, limiting all four of those opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Heat have settled back into their preferred style and that involves a methodical pace as they've hoisted up 82 or fewer FG attempts in five straight games. Only twice over that stretch did they manage to knock down more than 38 field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off more than 82 FG attempts. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

We got the result we wanted from the Bucks last night, winning with them in Utah and also getting a lopsided final score that sets us up nicely for a play on the Nuggets on Saturday. Sweeping a back-to-back set in altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is never easy and I don't expect that to be any different for the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is rolling offensively right now but almost certainly in for some regression after knocking down 51 and 55 field goals in its last two games. Note that it got off 98 and 99 field goal attempts in those two contests but Denver has held four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The Nuggets have yielded just 39, 41, 38 and 44 made field goals in their last four contests with the high-water mark coming in a 118-104 win over the Wizards last time out. Offensively, Denver is well-positioned to go off in this game. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in each of its last seven games, finally fully healthy. The Bucks have yielded at least 93 FG attempts in an incredible 11 straight games with six of their opponents getting off at least 100. The Nuggets did drop the first meeting between these two teams this season but that came in Milwaukee, without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and it came by just eight points as a 10-point underdog. Take Denver (8*).