Sean Murphy - Betting Expert

My selection is on the 'over' between Campbell and East Carolina at 7 pm et on Friday.

East Carolina checks into this game off back-to-back losses, held under 70 points in both contests after opening the season by scoring 75+ points in six straight games. Pirates opponents have been 'filling it up' so far this season, with six of eight foes having made good on 26 or more field goals, six of eight opponents have also scored more than 70 points. We will give the Pirates due respect in this bounce-back spot, however, confident that they can at least keep up with the Campbell Tigers in the role of short home favorite. Campbell successfully rebounded from its worst offensive showing of the season by exploding for 87 points last time out against Stetson. While Stetson's break-neck pace had a lot to do with that high-scoring result, it's not as if East Carolina will be looking to slow it down either. The problem is, the Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down the same number of field goals per game (24) as ECU despite six fewer attempts while making good on just one less three-pointer per contest, also on eight fewer attempts. Both of these teams get to the free throw line with consistency as Campbell averages 22 FT attempts per contest and ECU checks in averaging 23. The last time these two squads met in 2019 they combined to score 146 points. While the personnel has obviously changed, I'm anticipating a similar result here. Take the over (8*).

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on South Korea +0.5 goals over Portugal at 10 am et on Friday.

Portugal has impressed through two matches in this tournament, securing all six points in victories over Ghana and Uruguay. I do think it faces a more cagey affair here against a desperate South Korea squad that currently sits last-place in Group H, needing a win and help to advance in the tournament. It's not as if Portugal's success has been long-lived. It has won just three matches in a row going back prior to the start of the World Cup. I like the fact that South Korea's back line rates out exceptionally well in this tournament, despite the fact that it yielded three goals last time out against Ghana. Remember, the South Koreans opened the tournament with a clean sheet in a nil-nil draw against Uruguay. I do think it's only a matter of time (and time is clearly running out) before South Korea shows some creativity in attack and ultimately pushes Portugal in that regard here. There's simply too much talent up front for the South Koreans to go away with a whimper. Take South Korea +0.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Ghana and Uruguay at 10 am et on Friday.

Ghana's two games so far in this tournament have been thrillers with each contest totalling five goals. I'll admit that I expected Ghana to be far more organized and stout defensively in this tournament but that simply hasn't been the case. Here, with Uruguay needing to push to secure advancement in this tournament (currently sitting in last place, two points behind second-place Ghana, I'm confident we'll see another relatively high-scoring affair. With Ghana having scored first in six of its last eight contests across all competitions, there's reason to believe the Uruguayans will be forced to go on the offensive early. Both sides have been vulnerable defensively in the World Cup so far, even if Uruguay has only yielded two goals through two contests. The two back lines rate out near the bottom of any defensive units in this tournament according to the numbers I use. The same goes for the keepers. Expect some fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*).

Friday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Friday.

While this game may be an afterthought for most, it certainly means something to Buffalo as it looks to gain Bowl eligibility with a sixth win. It should be able to control proceedings from start to finish against an Akron squad that is almost certainly in for a letdown off a stunning 44-12 win over Northern Illinois last week. Note that the Bulls have been able to stamp out opposing passing attacks, allowing 17 or fewer pass completions in seven of their last 10 contests. If they can do that against Akron's lukewarm offense they'll be well on their way to a convincing victory as the Zips haven't been able to run the football with any consistency, gaining just 3.0 yards per rush this season. On the flip side, Akron comes off consecutive 'over' results but has held five straight and seven of its last eight foes to 18 or fewer pass completions and will certainly get up for this opportunity to play 'spoiler' in its final game of the season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 with Buffalo coming off four or five wins in its last six games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 49.1 points in that situation. Take the under.

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Friday.

USC has every reason to be the more 'motivated' team ahead of this one. After all, it currently resides in the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff picture and will be looking to avenge its lone previous loss this season. Motivation only takes you so far, however, and I'm a believer that it shouldn't really play a role in handicapping as it's rarely lost on the betting marketplace. I'll grab the points with Utah here as it looks to defend its Pac-12 Championship and play as spoiler to USC's national title hopes at the same time. The Utes should be nice and warmed up for this contest after shredding through Colorado by a 63-21 score last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Trojans are coming off a win (and cover) in their annual showdown with Notre Dame - their third consecutive ATS victory. We'll back the better defense while also fading the Heisman Trophy candidate in USC QB Caleb Williams. Here, we'll note that USC is just 37-58 ATS in its last 95 games played away from home off consecutive victories and a woeful 7-18 ATS in its last 25 December games. Take Utah (10*).