Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-11-19 | Iona +105 v. Niagara | 90-95 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Iona + The Gaels should have no problem here secure a win on the road against the Purple Eagles. While Iona is 4-9 overall, they are 2-0 in league play. Niagara has a much more respectable 7-8 record, but are 0-2 in league play. It just so happens that both have played a common opponent early in conference action. That would be Fairfield. The Gaels beat the Stags 94-87, while the Purple Eagles got annihilated by 18-points (77-59). I know that Iona has a mere 1-8 record in road games, but that's because the road slate was brutal in non-conference play. Niagara is just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record and the road team has covered 6 straight in the series. Take Iona! | |||||||
01-10-19 | Eastern Illinois +13 v. Jacksonville State | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Illinois + Easy play here on the Panthers as a big road dog against the Gamecocks of Jacksonville State. Eastern Illinois is way undervalued right now. The Panthers come in having won 3 straight and and 6 of their last 7 overall. A stretch where they have covered 5 of 7, including outright wins as road dogs of 7.5 and 13 at Western Illinois and Bradley. Jacksonville State is a quality team and have gone 9-2 in their last 11, but they are simply being asked to lay too many points in this one. The Gamecocks are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games off a conference win and 0-6 ATS last 6 off back-to-back conference wins. Take Eastern Illinois! | |||||||
01-10-19 | St. Peter's +5.5 v. Fairfield | 57-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Small Conference PLAY OF THE WEEK on St Peters The Peacocks are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Stags. While St. Peter's comes winless away from home at 0-8, I'm confident they get their first road win of the season and at worst keep it within the number. A big reason for that is Fairfield has little to no home court edge here, as they are 1-4 at home this season. The Stags like to shoot it from deep, as they average 26 3-pointers a game. They area also a poor rebounding team, as they are getting beat on by an average of 5 boards/game. The Peacocks are 33-14 ATS last 47 road games (at least 15 games into the season) when facing a team that averages 21 or more 3-point attempts. They are also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games (at least 15 games into the season) against teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards/game. Take St. Peter's! | |||||||
01-09-19 | CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside | 84-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Money Line SMASH on Northridge I like the Matadors to go into UC Riverside and get a win tonight. CS-Northridge has been a great team to back on the road once conference play rolls around. The Matadors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games in the month of January. On the flip side of this, UC Riverside is just 1-9 ATS last 10 with a line of +3 to -3 and 0-8 in this spot at home. The Highlanders are also a mere 2-15 on the money line in their last 17 vs a team with a losing record. Take CS Northridge! | |||||||
01-08-19 | North Carolina v. NC State -105 | 90-82 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State - This is just too good a price to pass up on the Wolfpack at home. Not a lot of people expected much out of this NC State team, but here we are in January and they are 13-1. They went on the road in their ACC opener and knocked off Miami as a slim 2.5-point favorite. The books have simply not made the proper adjustments on this team and it's resulted in them going an incredible 11-3 ATS. They are a perfect 10-0 at home and the only reason this line isn't bigger is because of how big a public play UNC is. I think this is a much more even matchup in terms of talent than people think and the home court edge is massive here. NC State is a perfect 10-0 at home, while we have already seen the Tar Heels slip up on the road to the likes of Michigan and Kentucky. Wolfpack are 15-6 ATS last 21 home games and 10-2 ATS last 12 at home when playing on their 2nd game in 8 days. UNC just 5-14 ATS last 19 road games after winning 3 of their previous 4 games. Take NC State! | |||||||
01-08-19 | Manhattan +6.5 v. Marist | 63-78 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan + I like the value here with the Jaspers as a decently priced road dog against the Red Foxes. Manhattan snapped a 8-game losing streak with a 90-80 upset win at home over Niagara last time out and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Marist just lost at home to Canisius as a favorite and are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Adding to this is a great system in play that suggest a fade of the Red Foxes. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset loss at home to a conference opponent are a mere 32-65 (33%) ATS since 1997 when it's a match of two bad teams (win percent between 20% and 40%). Take Manhattan! | |||||||
01-07-19 | Niagara +3 v. Fairfield | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara + Love the value here with the Purple Eagles as a dog against the Stags. Fairfield is getting way too much credit on their home floor. The Stags are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their 4 home games this season. Niagara is simply the better team and my numbers say they should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Purple Eagles have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Niagara is also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS last 6 after two or more losses. On top of all that, we find a great long-term system backing the away team. Road teams of +3 to -3 that have allowed 75 or more points in 2 straight games are 66-34 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a team that just allowed 85 or more. Take Niagara! | |||||||
01-06-19 | Nebraska v. Iowa +2.5 | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iowa + Easy play here for me on the Hawkeyes as a home dog against Nebraska. Iowa comes in off an ugly 16-point loss at Purdue, but this is a team that will likely struggle to win a lot of games on the road in conference play. Keep in mind Iowa lost by 22 at Michigan State earlier this season and 3 days later whooped in-state rival ISU 98-84 at home. The Hawkeyes are simply a different team at home and it doesn't get much bigger for this for Iowa this early in the season. The Hawkeyes have started 0-3 in Big Ten play. They have to have this game. I like the Cornhuskers, but they have lost each of their first two Big Ten road games and playing their second straight away from home, as they were at Maryland on Wednesday. Take Iowa! | |||||||
01-06-19 | Temple v. Wichita State | Top | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Wichita I love the value here with the Shockers at a pick'em on their home floor. I think we are going to get a huge effort here from Wichita State coming off a couple of road losses to VCU and Memphis. Shockers didn't play up to their potential in either game. Temple is a quality team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now and this is not an easy spot for the Owls. Temple just played at UCF on Wednesday and have played a mere 1 home game since Nov. 16. Shockers are 5-1 at home this season and their defense has been outstanding at home. Wichita State is holding teams to 63.8 ppg and 40.1% shooting at home. I like the Shockers to not just win, but win comfortably. Take Wichita State! | |||||||
01-05-19 | Kansas v. Iowa State -1.5 | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State - All you need to know is the No. 5 team in the country is a dog against a team that's not even ranked in the Top 25. The books don't make mistakes and while it's not a full proof system, these types of plays where the line looks way off cash the majority of the time. A closer look at Kansas' resume definitely suggests the Jayhawks could be overrated right now. They have been very fortunate in close games. Their only loss of the season also came in their only true road game. There's not many places tougher to play on the road than Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum. Cyclones are a perfect 7-0 at home and their only two losses are to Arizona and Iowa. They just won at Oklahoma St, despite shooting 36.4% from the field. They also had a bunch of guys out early, which is why they are flying under the radar right now. Take Iowa State! | |||||||
01-05-19 | Kentucky v. Alabama +5 | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Alabama + Big time value here with the Crimson Tide as a decently priced home dog against the Wildcats. No surprise here that Kentucky is being way overvalued by the books off a couple of impressive wins over North Carolina and Louisville. If anything, that has the Wildcats primed for a letdown. Every SEC teams lays it on the line when Kentucky comes to town and the Crimson Tide roll into this one playing their best basketball of the season. Alabama has won 4 straight with impressive wins over both Arizona and Penn State. Crimson Tide are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record. I see this one coming right down to the wire with a decent chance the home team pulls off the upset. Take Alabama! | |||||||
01-05-19 | Fairfield +4.5 v. Iona | 87-94 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Fairfield + Easy play here on the Stags as a road dog here against the Gaels. Iona is just 3-9 on the season and have been as bad as it gets with a 1-10 ATS mark. That was with them covering in their last game. Fairfield has covered 4 straight and are a strong 6-3 ATS in their 9 road games so far this season. Stags have covered 7 of their last 8 road games vs a team with a losing home record, while the Gaels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-7 ATS last 8 off a SU win. Take Fairfield! | |||||||
01-03-19 | Loyola Marymount -2.5 v. Pepperdine | 62-77 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Loyola - No need to overthink this one. The Lions are the better team and this is simply too good a price to pass up. Loyola-Marymount comes in at 12-2 with upset wins over UNLV, Georgetown and CS-Fullerton. The Waves had lost 5 of 6 before a cupcake win at home over Alabama A&M. Pepperdine is projected by many to be the worst team in the WCC. The Waves are getting way too much respect because of this game being on their home court. Pepperdine is a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and the Lions are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with the Waves. Take Loyola-Marymount! | |||||||
01-03-19 | San Diego -5.5 v. Santa Clara | 56-68 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB West Coast Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego - The Toreros should have zero problem cashing in a cover here as a short road favorite against the Broncos. San Diego was expected to be one of the top teams in the WCC and so far they look the part. The Toreros have opened up 11-4. Santa Clara is just 8-6, despite playing a weaker schedule. This is also a big let down spot for the Broncos, who just beat Washington State as a 8-point dog. Santa Clara is just 4-10-1 ATS 15 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Toreros have covered 11 of their last 14 trips to Santa Clara and the road team has gone a remarkable 23-4-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Take San Diego! | |||||||
01-03-19 | Canisius +3 v. Marist | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* MAAC College Hoops GAME OF THE MONTH on Canisius + The books have completely missed the mark here. My ratings say the Golden Griffens, despite their 3-8 record, should be favored in this matchup against 5-7 Marist. Canisius has played a brutal schedule to this point and it simply has them way undervalued here. We just saw this team win outright as a dog at Elon and cover as a 7-point dog at Holy Cross a few days later. These two have a common opponent in Buffalo and while both loss, the Griffens lost by just 15, where the Red Foxes lost by 27 and managed just 49 points. Last year Canisus won both meetings and have won 4 of the last 5. Golden Griffins are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs the MAAC. Take Canisius! | |||||||
01-02-19 | Seton Hall v. Xavier -3.5 | 80-70 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Xavier - The Musketeers came into this season way overvalued by the books, but I think the public has caught on and the value is now back with Xavier. This is definitely a favorable price to be getting the Musketeers on their home floor, where they have gone 7-1 to start the season and the lone loss was to a really good Wisconsin team early on. Seton Hall comes in riding a 6-game winning streak, which is definitely keeping this line lower than it should be. What gets overlooked is 4 of the 6 wins came by 6-points or less and while they have won 6 straight they are just 2-4 ATS during this stretch. Pirates most recently won 76-74 at home over St. John's and that's worth noting, as Seton Hall is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 off a conference win by 3-points or less. Musketeers enter off a 74-65 win at DePaul as a 2-point dog and are a dominant 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off an upset win as a conference dog. Take Xavier! | |||||||
01-02-19 | Nebraska v. Maryland | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland I really like what I have seen from this young Terps team. Maryland is led by junior Anthony Cowan, but the rest of the key contributors are sophomores and freshmen. The Terps are 10-3 and will be a tough place for any team in the Big Ten to get a win. Nebraska comes in at 11-2 and ranked No. 24 in the country, but I don't think they are any better than this Maryland squad. Cornhuskers have some nice wins, but they also lost by 18 to Texas Tech on a neutral site and by 7 as 4-point road favorite at Minnesota. Terps come into this game having covered 5 of their last 6 and are a dominant 11-2 ATS in home games under Mark Turgeon when they enter the contest having covered 4 of their last 5. Take Maryland! | |||||||
01-01-19 | Marquette v. St. John's +100 | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John's The Red Storm should have no problem securing a win on their home floor. Marquette is a good team and are sitting No. 16 in the country, but winning on the road in conference play is no easy task. I also think people are sleeping on this St. John's team, who started the season 12-0 before a controversial call cost them in a 76-74 loss at Seton Hall. One of the reasons Marquette has started out so strong, is they have only played 1 true road game and all but 3 of their games at home. That one true road game was a 96-73 loss at Indiana. Golden Eagles are just 1-4 ATS last 5 away from home and 1-8 ATS last 9 road games after covering the spread in 2 or more games. Take St. John's! | |||||||
12-30-18 | Drexel +14 v. Hofstra | 75-89 | Push | 0 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Drexel + I love the value here with the Dragons as a double-digit dog against the Pride. I just think because Hofstra has the better record at 11-3, are 8-0 at home, and come in riding a 8-game winning streak, we are seeing them way overvalued in this matchup. Drexel is just 6-8, but they have played the tougher schedule and while they aren't as talented as the Pride, they are more than capable of keeping this close. This has also been a good time to fade Hoftra. They are are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home off a conference win by 10 or more and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home after making 10 or more 3-pointers in back-to-back games. Take Drexel! | |||||||
12-29-18 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech -5 | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on La Tech - This is too good a price to pass up on the Bulldogs at home in their conference opener against the Golden Eagles. Louisiana Tech comes in having won 6 straight and are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. The Bulldogs have absolutely dominated teams at home, as they are averaging an impressive 84.0 ppg, while only giving up 69.9 ppg. I just see no way Southern Miss can keep pace offensively. The Golden Eagles are a good defensive team, but they are only scoring 64.0 ppg away from home. Last 34 times Southern Miss has been a dog of 3.5 to 6 points they have only covered 10. Eagles are also 0-6 ATS last 6 road games vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Take Louisiana Tech! | |||||||
12-28-18 | Towson -2.5 v. Elon | 77-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Towson - The Tigers are showing big time value here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Phoenix. Both teams have just 4-wins on the season, but Towson is playing the better basketball and have also played the tougher schedule. The Tigers won't be looking past Elon this time, as they were upset last year at home as a 9-point favorite by the Phoenix. Towson has covered 5 of their last 7 and are use to playing away from home, as 9 of their first 12 have been on the road. This one should come down to defense and the Tigers being able to get stops. Elon is giving up 82.3 ppg on their home floor. Phoenix are also just 7-16 ATS last 23 as a dog and 4-12 ATS last 16 with a line of +3 to -3. Take Towson! | |||||||
12-28-18 | Drexel +11.5 v. Northeastern | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Drexel + I absolutely love the value here with the Dragons as a double-digit dog against the Huskies. Northeastern has been way overvalued by the books in 2018 and that's evident by the fact that they are just 4-7 ATS overall, including a 1-3 ATS mark at home. They come in just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9. Dragons can light up the scoreboard, as they come in averaging 79.5 ppg. That's worth noting, as that should allow them to keep it close and we see that Northeastern is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs teams who average 77 or more points/game. There's also a big time system in play. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points, who are coming off a game where they allowed 80+ points and facing an opponent that has scored 30 or less in the 1st half of their last two are 65-29 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Drexel! | |||||||
12-28-18 | James Madison +8 v. William & Mary | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison + The Dukes should have zero problem here covering on the road against the Tribe. James Madison comes in off an ugly 75-48 loss at Fordham as a mere 3.5-point dog and that's definitely playing into this inflated number on William & Mary. It's been a wise move to jump on the Dukes in this spot, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 20 points or more. We are also talking about a William & Mary team that has only won 4 games all season. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents. The Dukes are 1-2 vs those teams and the Tribe are 0-3. William & Mary is also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning straight up record and the Dukes are a rock solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs a team from the CAA. Take James Madison! | |||||||
12-22-18 | St. Mary's -2 v. Western Kentucky | 68-71 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St. Mary's - St. Mary's should have no problem here leaving with a win at Western Kentucky on Saturday. The Gaels have won 5 of their last 6 and are fres off a 85-56 thrashing of Bucknell, which is worth noting, as St Mary's has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. The Hilltoppers have lost 5 of their last 7. Last time they were at home we saw them lose outright 87-81 to Troy as a 9.5-point favorite. WKU is a bad defensive team. They are allowing 77.3 ppg and 47.7% shooting at home this season. The Gaels average 78.2 ppg and are shooting 50% from the field and 40% from deep on the year. I just don't see the Hilltoppers being able to keep pace and with this number all we really need is for the Gaels to win outright. Take St. Mary's! | |||||||
12-22-18 | Georgia +5.5 v. Georgia Tech | 70-59 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia + The Yellow Jackets are getting way too much respect here at home against their in-state rivals. Georgia Tech comes in off an impressive 69-65 win as a 9-point dog at Arkansas, but are still just 2-3 in their last 5, including a 10-point home loss to Gardner Webb. Georgia has won 3 of their last 4 and covered all 4 during this stretch. The only loss coming by a mere 2-points to a really strong Arizona State team. I know both teams are down from last year, but keep in mind that Georgia has owned this series the last two years. The Bulldogs won 60-43 in 2016 and 80-59 a year ago. We don't even need them to win, just keep it close. Bulldogs are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 as an underdog, while the Yellow Jackets are a mere 1-8 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week span. Take Georgia! | |||||||
12-21-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Mercer -6.5 | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Mercer - The Bears should have zero problem covering this short number at home against the Seahawks. These two teams have a common opponent, as both have played on the road against Georgia State. Mercer lost by 2, while NC-Wilmington lost by 15. I think the line here is closer to what it should be if these two were playing on a neutral court and even then it's a little low. The big key here is only one of these teams plays defense. Mercer is only giving up 67.4 ppg and that number drops down to 61.6 ppg at home. The Seahawks are allowing 82.3 ppg on the season, as opposing teams are shooting 47% against them. They are losing on average by 10 ppg away from home and this one should be no different. Take Mercer! | |||||||
12-21-18 | St Bonaventure +6.5 v. Northeastern | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS NO-BRAINER on St. Bonny + The Huskies are a mere 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games, as the books continue to give them way too much respect. St Bonaventure comes in with a mere 4-7 record and haven't won a game away from home, but this is a team they can easily come away with a win against. The Bonnies have covered 4 of their last 5 and are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Both of these teams last played on the road against Vermont. St Bonaventure lost 83-76 and Northeastern fell 75-70. Two very similar scores, which is no surprise, as these are two very evenly matched teams. Keep in mind these two teams played last year about this same time and the Bonnies won 84-65, easily covering as a 8.5-point favorite. Take St. Bonaventure! | |||||||
12-20-18 | Pepperdine +5.5 v. Long Beach State | 66-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE WEEK on Pepperdine + My projections have Pepperdine winning the game outright, so this is an easy play for me on the Waves as a decently priced dog. Pepperdine comes in at 6-6, but are undervalued due to losing 4 of their last 5 and failing to cover each of their last 4. Long Beach State is just 3-9 on the season and have no business being this big of a favorite. The 49ers are just 1-6 in their last 7. The play little to no defense, as Long Beach is allowing 79.2 ppg and that's a problem against a Waves team that is scoring 79.2 ppg. Take Pepperdine! | |||||||
12-19-18 | UCLA +8 v. Cincinnati | 64-93 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on UCLA + I really like the value here with the Bruins here. While Cincinnati comes in off a loss at Mississippi State, they are still 9-2 on the season and 6-2 ATS in their last 8. They are still overvalued, as this is too many points for UCLA to be catching. The Bearcats were only a 2.5-point dog to Mississippi State and lost by 11, shooting just 37.3% from the field. Their other loss this year is a 8-point home defeat to Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite and they shot a mere 27.4% in that game. I just don't think this team is as good as people think, but they went 31-5 last year, so they are getting some love. Take UCLA! | |||||||
12-19-18 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Nebraska-Omaha +3.5 | 74-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Omaha + The books have the wrong team favored in this one. Nebraska-Omaha enters with a mere 4-7 record, but they have only played 3 games on their home floor leading up to this contest. They have also played nearly half (5) of their games against Power 5 opponents. They were able to snap a 4-game skid with a 89-80 win at Idaho as a mere 1-point favorite in their last game and I expect a big time effort here from the Mavericks in their first home game since they hosted and annihilated Montana State 89-65 as a 8-point favorite back on Nov. 24th. This is a long way from home for the Gauchos and I just think it's a really tough spot for them to play well. I think given that they have won 7 of 8, they might not give the Mavs their full attention, especially given the books made them the favorite. Take Nebraska-Omaha! | |||||||
12-18-18 | Xavier +1.5 v. Missouri | 56-71 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Xavier + I like the value here with the Musketeers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. Xavier was way overvalued to start the year and that was evident by their 0-4-1 ATS start. While the Musketeers have won 5 of their last 6 and are a respectable 4-2 ATS during this run, they are still flying under the radar from their slow start. It's not as bad as it looks. They are 7-4, but the 4 losses have come against Wisconsin, Auburn, San Diego State and Cincinnati. I don't think Missouri is on the same level as those teams. WE have already seen the Tigers lose at home to Temple. They also lost by 15 to Kansas State and by 17 to ISU. Missouri is just 4-11-1 ATS last 16 non-conference games and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Xavier! | |||||||
12-18-18 | Appalachian State v. Georgetown -10 | 73-83 | Push | 0 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Georgetown - I got no problem laying double-digits here with the Hoyas at home against the Mountaineers. We can bank on a big effort here from Georgetown after losing their last two, including an upset loss last time out at home against SMU. They should have no problem bouncing back with a big win. Appalachian State has played 6 road games and lost all 6. The Mountaineers are giving up 85 ppg on the road and the Hoyas are averaging 82.8 ppg at home. Georgetowns defense will be able to limit App St and that's where they will create the separation needed to cover. Mountaineers are 7-20-2 ATS last 29 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a mere 2-10 ATS last 12 road games after winning 2 of their last 3. Take Georgetown! | |||||||
12-17-18 | SIU-Edwardsville +13.5 v. Drake | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville + The Bulldogs are getting way too much respect here from the books. Drake should be able to win this game, but it's asking a lot for them to win by 14 or more. This line is simply inflated due to the fact that the Bulldogs come in having covered 6 straight and SIU Edwardsville a mere 2-5 overall. The Cougars only lost by 5 at Valpo as an almost identical 14.5-point dog. They are 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. There's also a huge system in play favoring a fade of Drake. Home favorites that have won between 60% to 80% of their games and enter having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 are a mere 19-47 (29%) ATS when facing a bad team that's won between 20% to 40% of their games. Take SIU Edwardsville! | |||||||
12-15-18 | Denver v. Cal-Irvine -12 | 52-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cal-Irvine - The Anteaters should have zero problem beating the Pioneers by the number here. UC-Irvine is sitting at 9-2 on the season with an outright win on the road against Texas A&m. Denver is 4-9 an and are simply outclassed here. These two team played about this time last year and the Anteaters won by 14 on the road, easily covering as a a 5-point dog. Irvine has covered 8 of their last 10 against a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team from the Summit. Pioneers are 5-16 ATS last 21 in non-conference play. Take UC-Irvine! | |||||||
12-15-18 | Washington v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Virginia Tech - The Hokies should have zero problem here covering the spread at home against the Huskies. Virginia Tech's only loss on the season is a mere 1-point defeat at Penn State. No surprise, as this is what many thought to be the 4th best team in the ACC behind Duke, UNC and Virginia. There was some hype with Washington, but the Huskies have struggled to come away with wins when they take a step up in competition. They have lost at Auburn and Gonzaga, as well as a neutral site game against Minnesota. Note that these two played on a neutral court last year and it wasn't close. The Hokies won 103-79 as a 7-point favorite. They are simply the much better team and what is normally a strong homeport advantage gets even stronger when you factor in how far the Huskies have had to travel for this one. Washington is 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team that's won 60% or more of their games and 4-13 ATS last 17 vs top caliber teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game. Hokies are 13-5 ATS last 18 non-conference and 9-2 ATS last 11 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite. Take Virginia Tech! | |||||||
12-15-18 | SMU +5.5 v. Georgetown | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on SMU + The Hoyas simply are a great team to fade at home, especially as a favorite in non-conference play. Georgetown is 6-17 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite and 4-13 ATS last 17 at home in non-conference play. Last time out the Hoyas suffered a crushing 72-71 loss at Syracuse and are 0-5 ATS last 5 off a loss. SMU on the other hand is an impressive 56-32 ATS L88 road games and have gone 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games played on a Saturday. While the Mustangs are just 6-4, they have played the tougher schedule to this point. I see no reason they can't make a game of this and I think worst case they lose by 5 or less, with a really good shot they win the game outright. Take SMU! | |||||||
12-13-18 | Morehead State +7.5 v. Samford | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Small Conference HIDDEN ATS GEM on Morehead State + The records here would suggest that Samford is the far superior team, as the Bulldogs enter with an 8-2 record and Morehead State is limping in at 3-6. That's definitely playing into this line and creating big time value here with the Eagles. The reason the Bulldogs are 8-2 is they haven't played anybody outside of one road game against Ohio State. Morehead State's already played 3 true road games against UConn, Syracuse and Marshall and it's worth noting they were competitive in all 3, losing by just 10 the Huskies, 14 to the Orange and 8 to the Thundering Herd. I not only think they are are capable of covering the spread, but I like them to win outright. Eagles are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games and 8-3 in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Morehead State! | |||||||
12-12-18 | Columbia +14 v. Boston College | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Columbia + I love the value here with the Lions as a big road dog against the Eagles. Columbia comes in with a mere 3-6 record, but it's a very misleading mark. The Lions largest margin of defeat is a mere 11-points and 3 of the 6 losses have come by 2-points or less. I think they are more than capable of keeping this within the number. Columbia is a great 3-point shooting team. They come in averaging 11 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting 39% as a team from long distance. BC hasn't exactly faired well against teams that can shoot from deep, as they are a mere 12-28 ATS in their last 40 home games against teams who average 8 or more 3-pointers a game. The Eagles are also a bit overvalued because of their hot start. they are 6-2 overall and have won 4 of their last 5. BC is 15-31 in their last 46 home games when they come in having gone 4-1 in their previous 5 games. Take Columbia! | |||||||
12-11-18 | Villanova v. Pennsylvania +7.5 | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn + I like the Quakers here to at least keep this within the number. This is not the same caliber a Villanova team that we have seen the past few years. While they are 8-2 to start the year, we have seen them lose by 27 to Michigan at home as well as by 8 as a 16-point home favorite to Furman. Penn has had this one circled since the schedule was released and are coming in playing with a ton of confidence. They have won 4 straight with the last two being a 14-point win at home over Miami and a 18-point win on the road over LaSalle. The Quakers were embarrassed last year by the Wildcats, losing 90-62 at Villanova, so that's even more incentive for them to lay it all on the line in this one. Quakers are 6-1 ATS last 7 off a SU win, 5-1 ATS last 6 at home and 7-2 ATS last 9 non-conference games. Take Penn! | |||||||
12-09-18 | Purdue v. Texas +2 | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Texas + This is the ideal spot to jump on the Longhorns. Since upsetting North Carolina to improve to 5-0, Texas has lost 3 straight, including back-to-back home losses to VCU and Radford as double-digit favorites. If that doesn't humble the Longhorns nothing will. I expect a extremely motivated and locked in Texas team to take the floor here at home against the Boilermakers. Purdue is a one-man show. Carsen Edwards averages 23.9 ppg. The only other player in double-figures is Ryan Cline at 14 ppg. I think that's a tough way to win against good teams, especially on the road and Purude has lost both of their true road games, as well as a neutral site game to Va Tech. Longhorns are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home underdog with a very profitable 15-5 ATS mark as a home dog of 3 points or less. Take Texas! | |||||||
12-09-18 | Tennessee +4 v. Gonzaga | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Tennessee + The public is coming in on the #1 ranked Bulldogs at close to a 80% clip and I'm putting my trust in the books that they have set this line to where they are confident the Vols will cash. I'm on board, as I like Tennessee to win this game outright. The Vols are no pushover. They are 6-1 and their only loss is a mere 6-point defeat to Kansas on a neutral field. They only lost by 6 to the Jayhawks, despite shooting just 41% from the field and Kansas was a red-hot 50%. Gonzaga has a bunch of big wins on their resume, including that upset of Duke, but they are due for a loss and they were lucky to get by Washington 81-79 at home as a 16-point favorite in their last game. Vols are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games when the previous two were against non-conference opponents. They are also 210-8-2 ATS in their last 30 off a SU win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS in their last 90 after holding their previous opponent to 25 or less 1st half points. Take Tennessee! | |||||||
12-08-18 | UNLV +8.5 v. Illinois | 74-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on UNLV + There's no reason for Illinois to be laying close to double-digits at home against the Rebels. I get the Illini have played a pretty tough schedule, but they are just 2-7 and have been way overvalued by the books in their slow start. Illinois is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. UNLV is 4-3 and off back-to-back losses to Valparaiso and Cincinnati, but they played both of them close and didn't shoot well in either game. Illinois has let opponents shoot 49% from the field, so good chance the Rebels get going offensively in this one. Rebels are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs a struggling defensive team that is giving up 77 or more points/game and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs a team from the Big Ten. Illinois is 0-4 ATS last 4 at home and 1-4 ATS last 5 off a double-digit loss at home. Take UNLV! | |||||||
12-08-18 | Kentucky v. Seton Hall +8 | 83-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall + I really like the value here with the Pirates catching a big number on a neutral court against the Wildcats, as these two get ready to face off at Madison Square Garden. Kentucky is 7-1 with the only setback being that ugly 118-84 loss to Duke in their season opener, but I'm still not quite sold on this team. The Wildcats have played absolutely no one since that game against Duke and are just 3-5 ATS on the season. Set Hall has one bad loss at Nebraska and a couple of close calls against St Louis and Louisville. No question the Pirates are going to put everything they have into pulling off the upset here and this is a tough spot for Kentucky. Wildcats last played on Dec. 1 and won't play again after this one until Dec. 15. Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Kentucky is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after scoring 75+ in 4 straight. Take Seton Hall! | |||||||
12-08-18 | Michigan State v. Florida +3.5 | Top | 63-59 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida + I cashed in on the Gators in their 10-point win over West Virginia and I'll gladly back them as a home dog here against the Spartans. Florida beat the Mountaineers by double-digits, despite shooting a mere 33.3% from the field. Note that game was played on a neutral court. This has been a much different Florida offense at home, where they are averaging 85.3 ppg and shooting 53.1% from the field. It's not so much the offense, as it is the defense that has me liking the Gators here. Michigan State took won't have the same advantages against Florida as they did in their 22-point blowout win at home against Iowa, where they shot 52%. Spartans are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 or more wins and are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take Florida! | |||||||
12-07-18 | Idaho State v. Santa Clara -3.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Santa Clara - I got no problem laying the short number here with the Broncos, as I look for them to easily cover the small spread at home against the Bengals. Santa Clara got off to a brutal 0-4 start, but have rebounded to win 3 of their last 4 with the only loss during this stretch coming in a true road game at Cal. Idaho State is 3-3 and 2 of those wins have come against the likes of Bethesda-CA and Montana Western. Bengals are expected to finish near the bottom of the Big Sky and are simply outclassed here. Idaho State has failed to cover 4 of their last 5 vs teams from the West Coast and are 2-8 ATS last 10 off a SU win. They are also a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after playing their previous game as a road dog. Take Santa Clara! | |||||||
12-06-18 | Iowa State -1 v. Iowa | 84-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State - Iowa State should have no problem going on the road and taking down in-state rival Iowa. The line really tells you all you need to know for this one, as the Hawkeyes are ranked No. 18 and getting points at home against a Cyclones team that isn't currently in the Top 25. The books are telling you who is the better team, as the public will be on the ranked team getting points at home. I really like what I have seen from Iowa State in their 7-1 start. They haven't even had their full compliment of players and yet still have wins over Missouri, Illinois and San Diego State. Their lone loss being by just 5-points on a neutral court. Iowa looked impressive in back-to-back wins over Oregon and UConn, but they have went ice-cold from the field since those two victories. They were lucky to escape with a 69-68 win at home over Pitt, as they shot just 36.5%. They shot 39% in a 6-point loss to Wisconsin at home and 32.8% in a 22-point loss at Michigan State. Cyclones on the other hand come in having scored 80 or more in 4 straight games and are an impressive 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 80+ in 2 straight games. Hawkeyes are also a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team that's won more than 80% of their games. Take Iowa State! | |||||||
12-05-18 | San Francisco v. California +6.5 | 79-60 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Cal + While the Golden Bears are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12, this is too many points for them to be catching at home against a team from the West Coast Conference. I get San Francisco is a quality team and have started out 7-1, but not a single one of those wins have come against a Power 5 opponents. Cal already has one win against a team from the WCC, as they defeated Santa Clara at home as a 7.5-point favorite. Now they are a 6.5-point dog against SF? I just think this number has been inflated a ton and there's just too much value to pass up. Note that while Cal is just 2-4 overall, they have only played 2 games at home and are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS at home. It's also worth noting they come in off a 84-71 loss at St-Mary's, where they gave up 45 in the 1st half. Golden Bears are 24-8 ATS last 32 after giving up 45 or more in the 1st half. Dons are also 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take California! | |||||||
12-05-18 | Southern Utah v. Long Beach State -4 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Long Beach State - This line really tells you everything you need to know. Long Beach State comes in at 2-7 and riding a 4-game losing streak, yet are laying points against a Southern Utah team that is 4-1. The 49ers have played the much tougher schedule and that's easy to see as they have already logged 5 games against Power 5 opponents and have only played 2 of their 9 games at home. To give you an idea of how easy the schedule has been for Thunderbirds, the opponents they have faced give up on average 82.3 ppg, so don't be fooled by the 86 ppg that Southern Utah is averaging. Thunderbirds are just 4-10 ATS last 14 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and the 49ers are a perfect 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Long Beach State! | |||||||
12-04-18 | Indiana v. Penn State -2.5 | 64-62 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State - A lot of people wrote-off the Nittany Lions this year because they lost their star in Tony Carr. While that was a huge loss, there's plenty of talent still on board, including junior Lamar Stevens, who was the NIT's most outstanding player. Stevens has been sensational, averaging 22.4 ppg and 8.6 rpg. He's got 3 guys around him who can all hit from deep and this team is holding opponents nearly 12 points below their season average on the defensive side. Indiana is a well-known program and there's a lot of hype with this year's team, but I haven't been all that impressed. They have lost both their true road games and barely held on to beat Northwestern at home, despite shooting 55.1% from the field. That's a major cause for concern, especially on the road, where it's a lot harder to score. Take Penn State! | |||||||
12-04-18 | Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -3 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma - This is a no-brainer for me. I think Oklahoma is the better team and it's not even close. While both teams come into this game with a 6-1 record, the Sooners' 6-1 record has been a lot more impressive. Oklahoma's only loss is to a Wisconsin team that figures to finish near the top of the Big Ten. They have impressive wins over Florida and Dayton and have only played 2 true home games so far this season. Notre Dame has a 2-point win over Illinois on it's resume, but also a loss at home to Radford. Irish have also played all 7 of their games at home. Both teams lost a lot from last year, but I think a lot more people wrote off Oklahoma because they lost a superstar in Trae Young. While Young was the talk of CBB, the Sooners went just 4-12 down the stretch. A lot of that was it was a one-man show. This year they are playing much better team basketball and a lot better defense. I look for them to win this one going away. Take Oklahoma! | |||||||
12-03-18 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Wisconsin | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers + Really like the value here with the Scarlet Knights as a huge underdog against the Badgers. Wisconsin comes in over a big road win against undefeated and No. 14 ranked Iowa. The Badgers were No. 22 in their win over the Hawkeyes and are now the No. 12 team in the country. I think it has them getting way too much respect here against a quality Rutgers team. While the Scarlet Knights failed to cover as a 8-point home dog in a 78-67 loss to Michigan State, that was a 1-point game in the 2nd half. Prior to that loss, Rutgers went on the road and beat Miami, FL 57-54 as a 11-point dog. Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 ATS last 4 games on the road. Take Rutgers! | |||||||
12-02-18 | Minnesota v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 59-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State - I got no problem laying this number here at home with the Buckeyes against the Gophers. Minnesota is going to be a trendy pick here by the pubic, as this will look like too many points for them to be catching, as they are 6-1 with wins over Utah, Texas A&M, Washington and most recently Oklahoma State. However, their lone loss came in their only true road game against Boston College and they got rolled by 12-points and shot a miserable 29.2% from the field. Ohio State can really lock teams down defensively and were playing extremely well (won true road games at Cincinnati and Creighton) before a setback at home against a quality Syracuse team. Buckeyes lost to the Orange by a final score of 72-62 and that's worth noting, as they are a prefect 5-0 ATS last 5 times they have come off a double-digit home loss. Gophers on the other hand are 0-4 ATS last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 1-9 ATS last 10 off a cover. Home team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and Gophers are 1-10 ATS last 11 trips to Columbus. Take Ohio State! | |||||||
12-02-18 | Arizona -1.5 v. Connecticut | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ANNIHILATOR on Arizona I really like the Wildcats to go on the road and take down UConn. This might not be your Final 4 caliber Arizona team, but I think because they aren't quite what they have been the last couple of years they are flying under the radar. Arizona's only two losses this season have come against Gonzaga and Auburn and the loss to the Tigers came the day after they laid it all on the line against the Bulldogs. They had an impressive win over Iowa State and their two losses are a lot better than UConn's loss to Iowa, who I think is a bit overrated right now. Wildcats are 13-4 ATS last 17 road games off a home win and the Huskies are 0-7 ATS last 7 after 2 straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Huskies. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 and are coming in off 4 straight high-scoring games where 155 or more points were scored are a mere 19-45 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Wildcats covering. Take Arizona! | |||||||
12-01-18 | Temple +3.5 v. St. Joe's | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Temple + The Owls only loss this season is a mere 6-point defeat against VCU, where they shot a dreadful 32.3% from the field. I think another one of those awful shooting performances is the only thing that will keep Temple from not just covering but winning this game outright. Since losing to VCU, the Owls have destroyed Cal 76-59, shooting 54.4% from the field and most recently won 79-77 at Missouri on 51.6% shooting. One of the big reasons I don't think the Owls will struggle with their shot, is St. Joe's has allowed 3 of their last 4 opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Temple is 7-2 ATS last 9 off a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons in road games after a game with a combined score of 155 or more. Take Temple! | |||||||
12-01-18 | San Diego State v. Illinois State | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Monday Line ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State I'll take my chances here that the Aztecs leave Illinois State with a victory. This is a really good San Diego State team, but are off to a bit of a slow start with a 4-2 record early on. However, the two losses have both come away from home against the likes of Duke and Iowa State. While they struggled against those two Power 5 teams, they did knock off Xavier. Illinois State has won 4 straight, but I just think this is a big step up in class for the Redbirds, who lost by double-digits to Georgia and Belmont earlier this season. Illinois State is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team from the MWC. Aztecs are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs a team with a winning record and 7-2 ATS last 9 off a SU win. Take San Diego State! | |||||||
12-01-18 | St. John's v. Georgia Tech +4.5 | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia Tech + The Yellow Jackets are showing tremendous value here as a 4.5-point dog against the Red Storm. St John's is simply getting way too much respect from their 6-0 start to the season. While it's a nice way to start the year, the schedule has been very favorable. Georgia Tech is 4-2, but their only two losses have both come in true road games against Power 5 opponents in Tennessee and Northwestern. The big key here will the Yellow Jacket's defense, which is only giving up 59 ppg and holding opponents to 36% shooting. I look for them to slow the Storm way down, while the offense does more than enough against a St John's defense that gives up 76.7 ppg on the road. Red Storm are a mere 3-11 ATS last 14 neutral site games and are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Yellow Jackets are 14-5 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and a perfect 10-0 ATS last 10 off a cover where they lost outright as a dog. Take Georgia Tech! | |||||||
11-30-18 | Mississippi State v. Dayton +4 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Dayton + The public is going to be all over the ranked Bulldogs, but I don't think Mississippi State should be favored. I wasn't all that impressed with the Bulldogs showing in Las Vegas. They lost outright to Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite and barely held on for a 4-point win against St. Mary's. Dayton on the other hand is a team I think is flying under the radar. The Flyers struggled in the first year under head coach Anthony Grant, but return 4 starters and outside of an awful 10 minutes stretch against Oklahoma, I've liked what I have seen. Dayton only lost by 7 on a neutral court to Virginia and shot 54.3% from the field, which is outstanding against that Cavaliers' defense. They were up decent on Oklahoma in the 2nd half, but went ice cold and scored 2 points in a 10-minute stretch. With the Bulldogs not quite as good as people think and this being Mississippi State's first true road game, I like Dayton to win this matchup. Flyers are 13-5 ATS L18 vs a team from the SEC, while Bulldogs are 1-11 ATS last 12 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat Alcorn St by 23 last time out). Take Dayton! | |||||||
11-29-18 | Austin Peay v. Troy State -4 | 79-74 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Troy State No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-28-18 | Virginia v. Maryland +4 | 76-71 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Maryland + The betting public is going to be all over No. 4 ranked Virginia, as the books are begging for action on the Cavaliers as a short road favorite against the Terps. While Maryland comes into this game with an identical 6-0 record and are now ranked No. 24 in the country, I think people are sleeping on this team. While they are starting to get some respect, I don't think people realize just how talented and how well Maryland is playing right now. They got two experienced playmakers who can both score in bunches in Cowan and Fernando and a trio of freshmen that are playing at a high level. We know Virginia is going to be tough to score on, but the offense can be dreadful at times. Maryland is has shot 50% or better in each of their last 3 games and we saw the Cavaliers allow Dayton to shoot 54.3% a couple games back. Terps aren't just all offense, as they are only giving up 66 ppg, while holding teams to 39% from the field and 29% from deep. Take Maryland! | |||||||
11-28-18 | VCU v. Old Dominion -3.5 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas Line MISTAKE on Old Dominion - I like the value here with Old Dominion as a short home favorite against the Rams. Jeff Jones has really turned the Monarchs into a consistent threat in C-USA and it's because of the emphasis that is put on the defensive side of the ball. ODU is once again locking down opposing teams, as they enter this game allowing just 58.3 ppg and 37.2% from the field. They get even more stingy at home, where they allow just 54.5 ppg and 32.7% shooting. VCU is a quality team and while Shaka Smart is no longer with he Rams, they are still a household name. I think that's playing into the number here, as I think this is a really tough spot for VCU against this caliber a defense in their first true road game of the season. Note they don't exactly come in shooting it well, as they have hit a mere 42% in each of their last 2 games. Rams are just 4-9 ATS last 13 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog. Clearly when the books make VCU a dog it's for good reason. Take Old Dominion. | |||||||
11-27-18 | Temple +2.5 v. Missouri | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Temple + I really like the Owls to go into Mizzou Arena and take down the Tigers. I've just not been impressed at all with Missouri, as they can't score the basketball. Tigers come into this game averaging a mere 63.6 ppg. I get they have played Iowa State, Oregon St and Kansas St, but they only had 68 points vs Central Arkansas and a mere 55 in a 3-point win over Kennesaw State. Temple is a very strong defensive team, which is bad news for the Tigers. Owls had one bad offensive game against VCU where they shot 32% and scored 51 points (only loss this year). Every other game they have scored 75 or more, including 81 against the likes of Georgia. I just don't see Mizzu being able to keep pace. Take Temple! | |||||||
11-27-18 | Nevada v. Loyola-Chicago +6.5 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Loyola-Chicago + Expectations were sky-high for Loyola-Chicago coming into this year after that Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament a year ago. I think a lot of people are off this team though after their 4-2 start, which includes a double-digit loss to Boston College last time out. I still think the Ramblers are a very dangerous team, especially on their home floor and Nevada is simply getting too much respect. The Wolf Pack come in with a perfect 6-0 record and averaging 92 ppg. They aren't a bad team, but they have played a soft schedule and will get knocked off at some point. I think there's a good chance it happens tonight, as this will be their first true road game of the 2018 season. Ramblers are 15-6 ATS last 21 as an underdog and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a loss by 10 or more points. Take Loyola-Chicago! | |||||||
11-26-18 | Minnesota v. Boston College -1 | 56-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Boston College - It's been quite the impressive start to the season for Minnesota, who has started out 5-0 and just took home the Vancouver Showcase title with a win over Washington in the finale. They also have early victories against the likes of Utah and Texas A&M. I believe all that has the Gophers getting a little to much respect here on the road against a talented BC team that off to a strong 4-1 start of their one. They too are coming off an impressive win, as they took down Loyola-Chicago 78-66 as a 4-point dog. I also don't love the spot for Minnesota, who has to be a bit jet-lagged from their recent trip to Vancouver, plus all the distractions with Thanksgiving. Now back on the road in what figures to be a hostile environment for the ACC/Big Ten showdown. Simply put, there's just too much value with the Eagles at basically a pick'em at home. Take Boston College! | |||||||
11-25-18 | Villanova v. Florida State -2 | 66-60 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Florida State No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-23-18 | Florida -1 v. Butler | 54-61 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Florida No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-22-18 | Oklahoma State v. Memphis +2.5 | 84-64 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Memphis + I'lll gladly take the points here with Memphis in this neutral site showdown with Oklahoma State. There's a buzz around this Tigers team with Penny Hardaway the new head coach. He's going to turn Memphis into a powerhouse with his ability to recruit and I think they will be showing a lot of value this year. They already went on the road and covered against a very good LSU team, losing by just 9 as a 11.5-point dog. They did so despite a red-hot shooting night for LSU, who hit on 54% of their shots. I think they are the better team here. Oklahoma State also has a road loss, but there's was at Charlotte as a 13-point favorite. This team is going to struggle this year, as they only returned 3 scholarship players. Take Memphis! | |||||||
11-21-18 | Loyola-Chicago -4.5 v. Boston College | 66-78 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Loyola-Chicago - I'll gladly back the Ramblers at this price. Loyola-Chicago should have zero problem here covering the number against the Eagles in this neutral site showdown in Fort Myers, Florida. Ramblers laid an egg out of the gates and lost at home to Furman, but have rolled off 3 straight wins, including a 82-66 victory over Richmond as a 7-point neutral site favorite. The Eagles are headed in the right direction and will surprise some teams in ACC play, but still got a ways to go. We already seen them lose at home to IUPUI as a 16-point favorite. Ramblers are 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games when playing on 1 or less days of rest. Take Loyola-Chicago! | |||||||
11-21-18 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Stanford | 62-46 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin - I got no problem laying this number with the Badgers against the Cardinal. Wisconsin is a team that I think was highly undervalued coming into the year. While they are starting to get some love (ranked #25), I still think there's a lot of value backing them. Big reason Wisconsin is undervalued is they are coming off a season in which they went just 7-11 in the Big Ten and failed to make the NCAA Tournament fro the first time in 20 years. A big reason for their struggles was injuries. They got all 5 starters back and have already won on the road over Xavier by 9-points. Stanford just lost at UNC by 18 and was lucky to keep it that close. Should be an easy double-digit win here for the Badgers. Take Wisconsin! | |||||||
11-20-18 | Bradley +3 v. SMU | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bradley + I'll take the points with the Braves in this neutral site showdown with the Mustangs. Bradley is a dangerous team in the MVC, as they bring back 4 starters from a 20-win team. They are 3-1 to start the year with the only loss coming to Illinois-Chicago by a mere 1-point. SMU is off a miserable 2017-18 campaign, where injuries derailed what could have been a special season. A lot of people will expect the Mustangs to bounce back, but I'm not so sure that will be the case. They lost another NBA talent in Shake Milton, their third pro in the last two years. Two of their key guys back this year are both questionable to play in Everertt Ray and Jarrey Foster. SMU has already lost by 10 as a 9.5-point home favorite to Southern Miss and by 6 as a 10-point home favorite to Lipscomb. The Braves are better than both of those teams. Take Bradley! | |||||||
11-19-18 | Arizona -1 v. Iowa State | 71-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arizona - Iowa State is getting way too much love here against the Wildcats. This might not be your typically Arizona team that has the talent to be a serious national title contender, but this is still one of the most talented teams in the country. I like that they are flying under the radar coming into the year, as they should be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Iowa State is going to be a dangerous team come March if they can get healthy, but they are playing without preseason All-Big 12 guard Lindell Wigginton, who is out with a foot injury. On top of that, returning starters Cameron Lard (suspension) and Solomon Young (Groin) are also not playing. I get the Cyclones have looked great so far without those key pieces, but all 3 games for them have come at home, where they have quite the home court edge. This one is being played in Hawaii at the Maui Invitational. Take Arizona! | |||||||
11-19-18 | Akron +14 v. Clemson | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Akron No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-19-18 | South Dakota State v. Tulane +8 | 80-84 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Tulane No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-18-18 | CS-Fullerton v. Monmouth +7.5 | 87-63 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Monmouth No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-18-18 | South Florida +412 v. Georgetown | 73-76 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on South Florida No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-17-18 | SE Missouri State v. Chattanooga +1 | 63-42 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Chattanooga No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-17-18 | William & Mary +13 v. Notre Dame | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary + Big time value here with the Tribe as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has really shot the ball poorly to start the season. They are shooting just 38.7% from the field thru three games. Last time out they went 22 of 61 (36.1%) in a 63-60 loss at home to Radford. Irish are a mere 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a bad team that's won between 20%-40% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Tribe are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games after allowing previous two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games after a game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take William & Mary! | |||||||
11-16-18 | Niagara +6.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 72-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara + It's been quite the impressive start for the Purple Eagles. They opened the year with a 80-72 win at home as a dog against St. Bonaventure, then proved it was no fluke with a competitive loss and cover at Loyola-Chicago. I go ahead and take the points for insurance, but I like Niagara to win this game outright. Wyoming has been overvalued in each of their first three, as they haven't covered a spread yet and I think the books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team. Cowboys are a mere 5-13 ATS last two seasons as a favorite. It's also worth noting that in that closer than expect loss to the Ramblers, the Purple Eagles shot a dreadful 29.2% from the field. Under head coach Chris Casey they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they shot 33% or worse. Take Niagara! | |||||||
11-16-18 | St. John's -2 v. Rutgers | 84-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on St. John’s - The Red Storm should have no problem securing a win on the road against Rutgers. St. John's is a team to watch out for. This is now year three under head coach Chris Mullin and the team showed some promise late last year. They get back arguably the best player in the Big East in junior guard Shamorie Ponds and got a huge boost when Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron was cleared to play. Both are averaging 20+ ppg early on. I like the direction Rutgers is going and they won't go down without a fight a home, but I just think the Red Storm are the far superior team in this one. Rutgers just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to compete with the likes of Ponds and Heron. Take St. John's! | |||||||
11-16-18 | Ball State v. Alabama -3 | 61-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Alabama No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in information we receive close to game time. This might be injuries, starting lineups, or weather. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers. | |||||||
11-15-18 | Ohio State -2 v. Creighton | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt Vegas ATS BLOWOUT on Ohio State - The value here is with Ohio State as a short favorite against the Bluejays. The Buckeyes surprised a lot of people last year and I think they are going to do it again, as a lot of people are expecting a step back after they lost their star duo of Keita Bates-Diop and Jae-Sean Tate. Not me. Last year's surprise run came in the first year under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann, who is known for getting the most out of the talent he has to work with. He had to work extra hard with the talent he was able to get at Butler. Not so much at Ohio State, where they get big time recruits. This year's freshman class, mixed with some talented veterans will be tough to beat. We already seen them go on the road and beat Cincinnati by 8 as a 4.5-point dog and then absolutely annihilate Purdue-Ft Wayne by 46 as a 18.5-point favorite. Creighton is in a very similar spot, having lost their top two scorers and only returning 2 starters, but they don't have the talent that the Buckeyes do. Take Ohio State! | |||||||
11-14-18 | Niagara +14 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Niagara + I really like the value here with the Purple Eagles as a big dog against everyone's favorite Cinderella story from last year in Loyola-Chicago. Last year the Ramblers surprised everyone all the way to the Final Four. With that success comes expectations, as well as a pretty big target on your back. We have already seen them stumble, as they lost their second game of the season to Furman at home as a 8.5-point favorite. Loyola shot just 37% from the field. All Niagara did in their first game is upset a St Bonaventure team at home 80-72 as a 4.5-point dog. A team that you might recall won 26 games last year. The biggest thing for me with the Ramblers is last year's success came in year 7 under head coach Porter Moser, so it's not like he just arrived and flip the script. It tells me last year's success was about the talent on hand and while they got some nice pieces back they lost three seniors who played big roles. I'm not saying they won't win this one, I just don't seem them winning by double-digits. Take Niagara! | |||||||
11-13-18 | Georgetown v. Illinois -6 | Top | 88-80 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois - I love the Illini at this price against the Hoyas. I think this Illinois team might be one of the biggest sleepers in the country. Brad Underwood had a great track record of improving teams in his first year on the job, but Illinois actually got worst in his first go of things last season. Underwood could have had basically the same team back, but instead got rid of the players that didn't fit his system and added in a bunch of talent (6 freshmen, 2 transfers). One of those freshman is 5-star point guard Ayo Dosunmu, who now gives them 3 playmakers in the backcourt with the return of senior Aaron Jordan and sophomore Big Ten All-Freshman guard Trent Frazier. Georgetown had similar struggles in the first year under head coach Patrick Ewing. I don't see the same upside with the Hoyas in year-two. Georgetown is 2-0, but only beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite then had to hold on for a 7-point win at home against Central Connecticut. Illinois put up 99 in a 36-point win over Evansville as a mere 16-point favorite and that same Evansville team only lost by 6-points the next time out at Xavier. I just don't see Georgetown being able to keep pace offensively with this Illini team, especially on the road. Take Illinois! | |||||||
11-13-18 | Harvard v. Massachusetts -3.5 | 74-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on UMASS - Really like the value here with the Minutemen laying a short number at home against the Crimson. I like the direction this UMass team is headed under Matt McCall. They got a legit scorer in junior Luwane Pipkins (21.2 ppg last year) and a sharp-shooting sophomore guard in Carl Pierre (47% from 3's) to lead the way. They also got a big who can dominate in Rashaan Holloway and a couple of transfers in Curtis Cobb and Jonathan Laurent who are starting. Harvard is a team that has high expectations this year of making the the NCAA Tournament, but we just saw them lose 81-71 at home to Northeastern. Until they get back their two studs from injury in Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns, this team will struggle to win games. Take UMass! | |||||||
11-13-18 | Wisconsin v. Xavier +2 | 77-68 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational Vegas Insider on Xavier + I'm not buying the Badgers being a road favorite over the Musketeers. Xavier was a No. 1 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, but lost head coach Chris Mack and a trio of playmakers in Trevon Blueitt, J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter. I just think the assumption here is that the Musketeers will take a big step back this year. I don't think that's the case at all. Mack's assistant Travis Steele is taking over a team that not only returns a lot of talent, but added in some experienced grad transfers and solid freshmen. I get Wisconsin gets everyone back from a team that was decimated by injuries last year, but these are Bo Ryan's Badgers any more. I'm not saying Wisconsin won't be a strong team, I just think they are getting a little too much respect on the road against a Big East power. Take Xavier! | |||||||
11-12-18 | Troy State +6 v. Pittsburgh | 75-84 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Troy + I look for the Trojans to go into Pittsburgh and give the Panthers all they can handle. Pitt has started out 2-0, but there's nothing to be excited about wins over Youngstown State and VMI. There's still a long way for these Panthers to go before they can be taken seriously. Pitt won just 8 games all of last year, going winless (0-18) in ACC play. They fired head coach Kevin Stallings and several key players either graduated or transferred out of the program. The future figures to be bright under Jeff Capel, but this figures to be a long rebuilding season. Troy is one of the top teams out of the Sun Belt and showcased some of their potential in a mere 4-point loss at St Louis as a 12-point dog last time out. Trojans nearly won on the road as a double-digit dog, despite shooting just 38.9% from the field. If they can hit some shots tonight, I definitely could see them winning this outright. Take Troy! | |||||||
11-12-18 | Bowling Green +8.5 v. VCU | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green + I like the value here with the Falcons as a near double-digit dog against the Rams. Bowling Green comes in at 1-1, but the lone loss is nothing to be ashamed of. The Falcons lost 84-80 at St. John's as a 18.5-point underdog. Bowling Green shot 50% against the Red Storm and if they are hitting their shots they are a very difficult team to beat. VCU is a program that still gets respect nationally from their success under Shaka Smart and last year the Rams missed out on the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. While VCU has opened up 2-0, neither win has been all that impressive. They have beat Gardner-Webb and Hampton, each by a final score of 69-57. They failed to cover as a 14-point favorite against Garder Webb and there wasn't even a line against Hampton. Falcons are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in their last game. Take Bowling Green! | |||||||
11-11-18 | Southern Miss +11 v. SMU | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Southern Miss + I love the value here with the Golden Eagles as a double-digit dog against the Mustangs. Southern Miss is a team you want to look out for early on this season. They are now a few years removed from the NCAA sanctions and will have basically their entire roster back from last year's 16-win team. They are a legit sleeper in C-USA and will be out to make a statement here against a quality program like SMU. The Mustangs won their opener at home against Northwestern State, but it wasn't pretty. SMU only won by 11-points as a massive 25.5-point favorite. They shot just 39% from the field, which is a bit concerning given the level of competition they were playing. SMU did lose their go-to-guy in Shake Milton, who led the team with 18.0 ppg). They will also be without projected starting guard Jarrey Foster. Look for Golden Eagles to hang around and maybe win this game outright. Take Southern Miss! | |||||||
11-10-18 | Northern Iowa -4 v. Texas-Arlington | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Northern Iowa - Really like the value here with UNI as a short favorite against UT Arlington. Both teams come in off wins against teams they were all but guarantee to beat. I just think this is a complete mismatch in terms of talent. The Mavericks went 21-13 last year, but fired head coach Scott Cross because the AD was upset about not making any NCAA Tournament appears. Cross had won 72 the past 3 seasons. Arlington not only will be adjusting to a new coach (Chris Ogden), but they have to replace all 5 starters, including two of the best players to ever play at the program. UNI went just 16-16 last year and 7-11 in the Missouri Valley. First time since 2002 that they were under .500 in conference play. They were better than their record (KenPom had them rated 3rd best team in the MWC). I like head coach Ben Jacobson and he's got the Panthers flying under the radar in 2018. Take Northern Iowa! | |||||||
11-10-18 | Columbia +4 v. Marist | 76-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Columbia + I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one. Marist might be one of the better teams in the MAAC, but that's not saying much. The Red Foxes went on the road and lost at Army in their opener, doing so despite shooting 51.9% from the field. Columbia is a team that could surprise in the Ivy League this year. They have 4 starters back, as well as several of their top reserves. Last year a young team struggled to win away from home (1-14), but now they should start beating these teams on the road where they have the edge. Look for the Lions to pull off the minor upset. Take Columbia! | |||||||
11-09-18 | Cal-Irvine +6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal-Irvine + I fully expect UC Irvine to a be a team people are talking about as a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. The Anteaters are absolutely loaded in terms of experience and talent for a team of their size. Irvine gets back all 5 starters, their top 3 reserves and talented redshirt freshman Collin Welp. It's why the Anteaters are as short a dog as they are against a Power 5 program in Texas A&M, who has two starters back from last year's Sweet 16 team. The thing with the Aggies is they figure to be down a few notches after losing one of the best frontcourts in the country with Tyler Davis, D.J. Hogg and Robert Williams all gone. In total they lost 4 guys 6-9 or taller who averaged at least 6.7 ppg and 4.4 rpg. I not only think the Anteaters will keep this thing close enough to cover, but I like them to win this one outright. They already won and covered as a 15-point favorite in their season opener (shot 54% from the field). Aggies on the other hand won by just 15 as a 29-point favorite. Take UC-Irvine! | |||||||
11-09-18 | NC-Greensboro v. LSU -10.5 | 91-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on LSU - I got a lot of respect for the UNC-Greensboro program. I know they got 3 starters back from a team that gave Gonzaga a scare in the NCAA Tournament, but I just don't see them being able to keep this within 15 points against a very talented LSU team on the Tigers home floor. LSU cruised to a 94-63 win at home over SE Louisiana, easily covering as a 20.5-point favorite. it could have been even worse if the Tigers wanted. They called off the dogs on defense after taking a 45-18 lead at the half. As for the Spartans, they had to rally from a 1st half deficit to beat North Carolina A&T. Winning by a final score of 74-66 as a 16-point favorite. They shot 50% from the field and barely won against an inferior team. That's a bad sign, as they aren't going to be shooting anywhere close to 50% on the road vs LSU. Look for the Tigers to have the cover in the bag early. Take LSU! | |||||||
11-08-18 | Siena v. George Washington -6.5 | 69-61 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on George Washington - I like the value here with the Colonials. George Washington was upset in their season opener at home by Stoney Brook. That's not as bad a loss as you might think. As for Siena, they went on the road and lost by just 10 as a 19.5-point dog to Providence. Those results would have most tempted to take the points with the Saints in this one, but I look for the Colonials to bounce back in a big way at home. Georgia Washington really beat themselves in their game against Stoney Brook. They shot 47.3% from the field to Stony Brook's 38.6%. What killed the Colonials is that they went 16 of 34 (47.1%) from the free throw line and turned it over 17 times. Both areas I expect to see major improvement in tonight. Take George Washington! | |||||||
11-07-18 | Marshall v. Eastern Kentucky +9 | 105-77 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* CBB No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Kentucky + I like the value here with Eastern Kentucky as a near double-digit dog at home to Marshall. Many will recall the Thundering Herd upsetting No. 4 seed Wichita State in the opening round of last year's NCAA Tournament. Head coach Dan D'Antoni runs a similar run-and-gun offense to that of the Houston Rockets, where his younger brother coaches. This will be a very public team and I don't think the books will hesitate to inflate the number on them. The Colonels decided it was time for a change and fired head coach Dan McHale. They replaced him with A. W. Hamilton, who actually played at Marshall. This is one of those special games, where you put a little more into getting a win, especially with it being the season opener. Eastern Kentucky will need to find some new guys to compliment their star in Nick Mayo, who might be the best player in the Ohio Valley. I believe they will and this could be a surprise team in the OVC. I think they keep it closer than expected and got a legit shot at winning the game outright. Take Eastern Kentucky! | |||||||
11-06-18 | San Francisco +3 v. UC-Davis | Top | 76-42 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Fran + I'm shocked the Dons are a dog in this fight, but I'll gladly take some insurance points in a game I see San Francisco winning rather easily. The Dons have won 42 games in the first two seasons under head coach Kyle Smith and made it all the way to the CBI Finals last March. This year's team looks even stronger than the one that went 22-17 and finished 4th in the WCC behind the likes of Gonzaga, St Mary's and BYU. They probably can't challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I could definitely see them surprising and finishing higher in the standings. UC Davis is also off a strong season and et back Big West Player of the Year T.J. Shorts, but lost two key starters, including China Moneke, who nearly averaged a double-double (18.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg). I just don't see them keeping pace with the Dons in this one. Take San Francisco! | |||||||
11-06-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. UCLA -12.5 | 71-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on UCLA - The Bruins should have no problem here covering this short humber at home against Purdue Fort Wayne. The Mastadons posted a winning record last year and get back 3x All-Summit 1st Team guard John Konchar, while UCLA never reached their full potential and were knocked out in Dayton in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. This year there are no distractions and the Bruins are loaded with talent that's ready to make a run at a Pac-12 title. I fully expect them to win here by 20+ and have this line covered by halftime. Take UCLA! | |||||||
11-06-18 | North Carolina v. Wofford +11 | 78-67 | Push | 0 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Wofford + A lot of people are going to think this line is a mistake. The No. 8 ranked Tar Heels are barely a double-digit favorite on the road against Wofford from the Southern Conference. Those that have done their homework will understand this line and the value that comes with the Terriers. Wofford brings back all 5 starters from last year's team that went 21-13, including a 79-75 win at North Carolina last year. I get the Tar Heels will be out for revenge, but it means every bit as much to the Terriors to win again. UNC has the chance to be good, but must work in a lot of new pieces and replace one of the ACC's best point guard is in Joel Berry, as well as one of their best all-around players in Theo Pinson. I expect this one to go right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Terrior did in fact pull off the upset. Take Wofford! | |||||||
04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAA Championship Game VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan/Villanova UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Monday's National Championship Game between Villanova and Michigan. The Wildcats just put up 95 in a convincing win over Kansas that flew over the total of 155 and to no surprise the public is pounding the OVER in the title game tonight. Those who have watched Villanova, know this is a team that loves to shoot the 3-pointer and they couldn't have been hotter from deep to start their Final Four game against the Jayhawks. The Wildcats hit 13 of 26 3-pointers in the 1st half, as they exposed Kansas big man Azubuike and his inability to guard the 3-pointer. Michigan is a much better defense team than the Jayhawks and are much better equipped to defend the 3-pointer. I expect the Wolverines to try and slow down the game, as the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with Villanova. The problem here for Michigan is they aren't a great offensive team and the Wildcats are a much better defensive team than people think. This matchup reminds me a lot of Villanova's Elite 8 matchup with Texas Tech, which finished with just 130 points. Take the UNDER! | |||||||
03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | 57-69 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'Final Four' VEGAS INSIDER on Loyola-Chicago + I like the value here with the Ramblers in their Final Four showdown with Michigan. I think the perception is that Loyola-Chicag's Cinderella run will come to an end against the Wolverines, but I not only think the Ramblers can keep it close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. By now it's no secret that Loyola has gotten to this point because of their defense. I just don't know that people realize how good the Ramblers are on that side of the ball. They have held all 4 of their opponents to this point under 70 points, holding 3 of the 4 to exactly 62 points. It's not just effort, the coaching staff of Loyola has done a tremendous job gameplanning for their opponent. Michigan had one great offensive game against Texas A&M, where they shot 62% from the field. The other 3 weren't all that good. They shot just 35.6% in their last-second win over Houston and a mere 38.8% in their 4-point victory over Florida State. What gets over looked with the Ramblers and that elite defense, is how efficient they are on the offensive side of the ball. Loyola-Chicago's worst shooting performance in the tournament came in their first game against Miami, where they shot just 47.3%. They hit 50% against the Vols, 56% against Nevada and 57.4% vs the Wildcats. Ramblers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a dog and 8-1 ATS in their 9 tournament games played this season. Take Loyola! | |||||||
03-30-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -3.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'CBI' Champ Game VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas - I like the value here with the Mean Green in Friday's CBI Championship Game. Unlike the other postseason tournaments, where it's win or go home, the CBI plays a best of 3 series for the title. These two teams have split the first two games of the series with the home team dominating in each matchup. San Francisco won Game 1 at home 72-62. North Texas responded with a 69-55 win in game 2. The Mean Green were a similar 3.5-point home favorite in Game 2 and I just don't see any reason not to back North Texas in the rubber match at home. San Fran is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games, while the Mean Green are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Take North Texas! | |||||||
03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah +4.5 | 82-66 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'NIT' Championship Game NO-BRAINER on Utah + I like the value here with the Utes as a decently priced dog in Thursday's NIT Championship Game against Penn State. Utah hasn't just caught fire in the NIT, this is a team that really turned a corner in the final month and a half of the regular-season. The Utes went 99-3 over their final 12 games. They would lose their only game in the Pac-12 Tournament, but it could have easily went their way, as they fell 66-68 to Oregon. They picked right up where they left off and have been a force in the NIT. They won by 9 at St Mary's to get to New York and won by 5 as a 2-point dog in the semifinals Tuesday against WKU. Penn State has won 5 of 6, but I just don't see a big enough gap that the Nittany Lions should be favored by nearly 5-points. If anything, this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me. Take Utah! |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
ProSportsPicks | $832 |
Tom Macrina | $664 |
Jack Jones | $601 |
Ricky Tran | $546 |
Joseph D'Amico | $518 |
Nick Parsons | $498 |
Joey Tron | $436 |
Sean Higgs | $427 |
Dan Kaiser | $200 |
Sean Murphy | $184 |