Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 52 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 220 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Oregon UNDER the total. These are two of the top defenses in the country. Wisconsin ranks 10th with 16.1 points allowed per game. Oregon ranks 8th, allowing just 15.7 ppg. Last time out, the Ducks limited Utah to only 15. In terms of total yards, the Badgers rank 8th, allowing just 293.5 ypg. The Ducks aren't too far behind; they allow 329.6 ypg. The Badgers have seen the UNDER go 10-6 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that span, the Ducks have seen three of five stay below the total, when playing a game with an O/U line in that range. With the Ducks listed as small underdogs, its also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-4 the past dozen times that they were getting points. Look for points to prove hard to come by, the UNDER improving to 6-1 the past seven times that Wisonsin was off two or more consecutive ATS wins. | |||||||
12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 54 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wyoming/Georgia State OVER the total. While the Cowboys enter on an 'under' streak, they're facing a defensively-challenged Georgia State team. On the season, the Panthers allow a whopping 36.1 ppg, second worst in the Sun Belt. Indeed, this will be one of the weakest defenses which Wyoming has faced. The Cowboys will have a big day on offense. However, the Panthers can score themselves. They average 32.4 ppg and aren't going to go down quietly. Note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Panthers were of a conference road loss. This season, the OVER was 3-0 when they were off a road loss overall. Expect the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that Wyoming played with two or more week's of rest in between games. | |||||||
12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida UNDER 56 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UVA/Florida UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed a bit from its opener. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Cavs come in on an 'over' streak, which has helped in terms of line value. They haven't faced a team like this one lately though. In their final three games, the Gators allowed 0, 6 and 17 points, an average of less than eight per game. Those three teams averaged a mere 211 ypg. For the season, the Gators are allowing an average of just 14.4 ppg and 299.6 ypg. The UNDER is 3-1 the past four times that Florida scored 37 or more in its previous game. Note that the UNDER is also 2-0 when the Gators played on a neutral field. After getting crushed by Clemson, the Cavs will be focused on avoiding a similar fate. Expect the UNDER to improve to 5-2 the past seven times that they were off a bye. | |||||||
12-29-19 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 153 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/Jacksonville UNDER the total. I won with the Colts' under in last week's game. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "While they're favored by nearly a touchdown, the Colts offense isn't very good. That means they'll need to win this one with their defense. Indianapolis managed only seven points last game and has scored 17 or less in three of its last four. Going back a bit further and the Colts have scored 17 or less in five of their last eight games. Last week's 30-24 Carolina/Seattle score was a bit deceiving as 21 points came quickly towards the end. The score had been 23-10 still nearing the mid-way point of the fourth ... " Indy did indeed win with its defense, limiting Carolina to six points. Once again, the Colts are favored against an offensively-challenged opponent. Once again, I feel that means that they're going to need to win it with defense. Note that the Colts score against Carolina actually could have easily been lower-scoring than it was; the Colts scored punt return TD's of 71 and 84 yards. On the season, the Jags rank 27th in scoring with 17.9 ppg. They've been even worse lately though. The Jags scored 12 points last time out. Prior to that, they scored 20, 10, 11, 20, 13 and 3. (The 13 came against these same Colts.) The Colts rank just 24th in the league in total yards. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. | |||||||
12-29-19 | Jets v. Bills OVER 36.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY/Buffalo OVER the total. This is a very low number and I believe it'll prove to be too low. With nothing really to play for, there's little reason to be conservative. The Jets will be playing their final game while the Bills are locked into the #5 seed. Sure, Allen and some of the Buffalo starters may not be around too long. That doesn't mean the second stringers won't be hungry to score though. Remember, the Jets allow more than 28 ppg on the road and they gave up 42 in their last road game. Look for the OVER to move to 3-0 the past three times that the Jets played a game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 38 range. | |||||||
12-28-19 | Memphis v. Penn State OVER 59.5 | 39-53 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Memphis/PSU OVER the total. While I certainly respect the Nittany Lions' defense, the offense is pretty good too. The Lions averaged 34.3 ppg this season. They know they're going to need to score a lot in this one as the Tigers average 40.5 ppg. When playing away from home, Memphis averages a whopping 43 ppg and 524.3 ypg. The OVER is 5-2 the past seven times that Memphis was an underdog and 4-1 the past five times that the Tigers played with two or more week's rest in between games. Likewise, Penn State has also seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that it played with two or more week's rest in between games. Expect those stats to improve as this afternoon's final combined score proves higher than many will be expecting. | |||||||
12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force UNDER 69 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on AF/WSU UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Obviously, the Cougars are a high-scoring team. The Huskies held them to 13 points in the Apple Cup though and I believe that Air Force will also have some success in slowing them down. The Falcons held Wyoming to six points last time out. They've limited three of their past five opponents to 13 or fewer points and none of those five teams scored more than 22. Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of times that Air Force played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. The UNDER is also 3-0 when AF was off b2b double-digit conference wins. The Cougs were underdogs three times this season and two of those games stayed below the number. This one will too. | |||||||
12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida UNDER 61.5 | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF/Marshall UNDER in the Gasparilla Bowl. These teams have a history as they faced each other 11 times as members of CUSA, from 2002-2012. Seven of those 11 games finished below the total. Working with generously high number and with both defenses in fine form, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Keep in mind that Marshall games averaged 48.9 points this season. The Herd will try and run and keep the clock moving and to keep the UCF offense on the sidelines as much as possible. It won't be easy though as the Knights are playing stingy defense right now. In fact, the Knights allowed a mere seven points in their last game, their fourth straight 'under.' Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times they were off a home win, 9-4 when that win came by 17 or more. While Marshall allowed 27, it has still allowed an average of only 17 points its past four games. Go with the Under. | |||||||
12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 51.5 | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Seattle/Arizona UNDER the total (BLUE CHIP). This is a very high total and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Neither team has been facing O/U lines this high recently. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 49 and finished with just 37. Including that result, the Cards are averaging just 17 points against fellow NFC West teams. Seattle divisional games average 46.7, less than their games against non-divisional opponents. Arizona has scored 17 or less in two of its last three while Seattle has scored 17 or less in two of its last four. The last five meetings between the teams have all finished with 51 or less. I say this one does too. | |||||||
12-22-19 | Panthers v. Colts UNDER 47.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Carolina/Indy UNDER the total. While they're favored by nearly a touchdown, the Colts offense isn't very good. That means they'll need to win this one with their defense. Indianapolis managed only seven points last game and has scored 17 or less in three of its last four. Going back a bit further and the Colts have scored 17 or less in five of their last eight games. Last week's 30-24 Carolina/Seattle score was a bit deceiving as 21 points came quickly towards the end. The score had been 23-10 still nearing the mid-way point of the fourth. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair, the UNDER improving to 4-1 the past five times that the Colts were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. | |||||||
12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans UNDER 50.5 | 38-28 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NO/Tennessee UNDER the total. This is a very high total and I believe it'll prove to be too high. I expect a heavy dose of the run from the Titans in this one, as they look to keep the Saints offense on the sideline. Yards won't come easily though as the Saints are stingy against the run. Allowing 90.9 rypg, they rank 4th in the NFL in terms of rushing yards allowed. The Saints have seen the UNDER go 8-3 the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. During the same stretch, factoring in last week's game vs. Houston, the UNDER is 3-0 when the Titans have played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. Expect those stats to improve here. | |||||||
12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 127 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. With both teams off high-scoring games, we're getting a generously high O/U number to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Prior to getting lit up at Dallas last week, LA has allowed just 12 and seven points, in its previous two games. The Rams have still allowed 17 or fewer points in six of their last eight. The last time that they allowed more than 40, they bounced back and allowed just seven last time out. As for the 49ers, if you had the 'under' in their game last week, you suffered a very bad beat. What happened? The Falcons scored 12 points in the final two seconds. The final play was a bizarre one; I'll leave it at that. Anyway, the point is that the 49ers game did not play out to be high-scoring. When these teams met earlier, the score was 7-7 at halftime and finished at 20-7, after regulation. While we have to go back quite some time, we find the UNDER at a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Rams were off a loss of 21 or more, when they'd been favored. Expect those stats to improve here. | |||||||
12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State OVER 41 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/SDSU OVER the total. The Aztecs were an 'under' team this season which has led to a very low O/U line for Saturday's game, currently the lowest of the bowls, in fact. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While SDSU may have played low-scoring games, the Chippewas saw their games average a healthy 58.7 points on the season. The Chippewas personally scored 45 or more in three of their last four and 38 or more in five of their last seven. (They got at least 20 in all seven.) Over the years, the OVER is 2-0 when the Aztecs have been neutral field favorites of seven or fewer points. Also, the Chippewas have seen the OVER go 2-0 over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line of 42 or less. Looking at recent New Mexico Bowl scores and we find the last four have all produced a minimum of 43 points. They had scores of 52-13, 31-28, 23-20 and 45-37. This one also proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 171 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/New Orleans UNDER the total. Both teams are off high-scoring games which has helped in giving us a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. While the numbers took a bit of a hit last week, both these defenses are still in the top half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. Both offenses are going to run the ball a alot, particularly the Colts, who rank #5 in the league, entering the weekend, in terms of rushing attempts per game. They run the ball 30.4 times per game. Of course, that'll help to keep the clock moving while hopefully keeping the more potent Saints offense on the sidelines. With the Colts off three consecutive losses, its worth noting that the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that they'd lost their previous three. The UNDER is 18-7 the past 25 times (6-1 L7) that the Saints had scored 30 or more in their previous game. When they'd scored 35 or more their previous game, the UNDER is 7-2. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. | |||||||
12-15-19 | Bears v. Packers OVER 41 | 13-21 | Loss | -107 | 120 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago/GB OVER the total. This is a low O/U number (it was 46.5 for the first meeting this season) and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Bears have quietly been scoring more points of late. Three weeks ago, they scored a modest 19 against the Giants. Two weeks ago, they improved on that by scoring 24, at Detroit. Last Thursday, they were better still, dropping 31 on Dallas. While the Packers managed only 20 last time out, they scored 31 in their previous game. They average a healthy 26.3 ppg (399 ypg) here at Lambeau. Visiting teams have averaged 20.4 ppg here. Both teams won at home in their last game. The OVER is 2-1 when the Bears were off a home win and 4-1 when the Packers were off a home win. Expect those stats to improve as this one finds its way above the low number. | |||||||
12-15-19 | Patriots v. Bengals OVER 40.5 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 97 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on New England/Cincinnati OVER the total. This is a low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. After several fairly low-scoring games, I believe Brady and the Pats' offense will be looking to "get healthy" with a big offensive game. Facing a Bengal team which allows an average of 27.5 ppg and 422.5 ypg, here at home, should help. As for the Bengals, with Dalton back behind center, they've scored 22 and 19 points the past two weeks. Look for the OVER to move to 4-2-1 in Bengal home games. | |||||||
12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/Carolina UNDER the total. Admittedly, the Carolina defense was pretty lousy at Atlanta last week. This unit still has pride though and I expect a visit from the Seahawks to bring out their best. The Rams cooled off Seattle last week. The Hawks managed only 12 points. Thats the second straight road game where Seattle has scored 17 or less. They've scored 27 or less in four straight on the road. The Hawks have seen the UNDER go 7-1 the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites, a 3-0 UNDER mark in that role this season. The UNDER is 2-0 the last couple of timeds that they were off a double-digit loss and 3-0 the last few times that they'd given up 25 or more in b2b games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final score staying beneath the generously high number. | |||||||
12-14-19 | Army v. Navy OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 119 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This O/U number fell when it came out and we're now working with a nice low total. While I'm aware these teams have been involved in low-scoring games of late, I believe that it'll prove to be far too low. Navy scored 56 all by itself last time out. That was the second time in four game that the Midshipmen reached that number. They've scored 35 or more in six of their past seven (averaging 39.3 on the season) and could realistically score enough by themselves to send this one OVER the number. They won't need to though; the Knights have been scoring even more points than them lately. In its last three games, Army has scored 63, 47 and 31, while averaging 575 yards of offense in those games. Last time out, the Knights allowed 52 against Hawaii. All things considered, this number is too low. | |||||||
12-08-19 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 43 | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/Jacksonville UNDER the total. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 40.5 and finished with just 37 points. We're working with a higher number here, which I feel is offering plenty of value. While LA saw Sunday's game finish above the total, it was no thanks to its offense, nor was it due to poor defense. The Chargers managed 20 points, in a 23-20 loss at Denver. Really, the defense played better than the score indicated as the Broncos had just 84 yards on the ground and only 134 through the air. As for the Jags, they scored only 11 points against Tampa, the third time in four games they've been held to less than 14. The UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that the Chargers were off a road loss and that includes a 3-0 UNDER mark when that road loss came against a division rival. The last time that the Chargers played their second straight away from LA, the game finished with 33 points. Expect another low-scoring affair. | |||||||
12-08-19 | Colts v. Bucs UNDER 47.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 144 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Tampa/Indianapolis UNDER the total. The Bucs' saw their 'over' streak finally come to an end. Facing the offensively challenged Colts, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. Banged-up on offense, the Colts have scored 17 points in each of their last two games and 17 or less in four of their past six. Note that the UNDER is 5-2 the past seven times that the Colts played a road game with an O/U line in between 45.5 and 49 points. The Bucs' defense was very stingy last time out. They kept the Jags scoreless much of the way and only ended up allowing 11 points. Expect them to build off that performance, leading to the UNDER improving to 8-4 the past 12 times that Tampa was a home favorite of seven or less. | |||||||
12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 101 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/LSU UNDER the total. When these teams met last year, the O/U line was 50 and they combined for 52. We're working with a little higher number here, which I feel is providing excellent value. With all due respect to Alabama, this is the best defense that LSU will have seen. Indeed, the Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the entire nation. They allow 10.4 ppg (#2 in the country) and 257.1 ypg, #4 in the country. Seven of the Bulldogs' eight SEC games stayed below the number. LSU can also be pretty stingy. Just ask the Aggies. Last week, the Tigers held Texas A&M to seven points and a measly 169 total yards. Speaking of that blowout, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 9-3 when off a double-digit conference win and they've got a 4-1 UNDER mark when off b2b double-digit conf. wins. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon, as points prove hard to come by the entire way. | |||||||
12-07-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis OVER 57.5 | 24-29 | Loss | -109 | 100 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Cincy/Memphis OVER the total. These teams just faced each other. The O/U line was 60 and they combined for 58. That was a tough loss for 'over' bettors though, as they already had 37 by halftime. This one should see the scoring continue the entire way. Prior to scoring "only" 34 in last week's game, Memphis had scored 47, 42, 54, 45 and 49 points in its previous five games. The Bearcats scored 46 and 48 in their first two November games. So, they can put up big numbers, too. They know they'll need to here. Memphis conference games are averaging 69.2 ppg on the season. Look for both teams to trade points, the OVER improving to 5-1 when the Tigers were off a home win. | |||||||
12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 48 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon/Utah UNDER the total. The days of the Pac-12 featuring wide open high-scoring games are largely gone. Remember the Ducks of a few years back? It seemed like they always getting involved in high-scoring games. Times have changed. The Ducks check in off a 24-10 win. They've held four of their last eight opponents to 10 or fewer points. On the season, they're allowing an average of 15.7 ppg. The Utes? They're even stingier. They allow a mere 11.2 ppg. Thats the third best mark in the country behind Clemson (10.1) and Georgia (10.4). The 241.6 yards allowed per game ranks #3, behind Ohio State and Clemson. They've allowed seven or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The UNDER is 8-3 when the Ducks have been underdogs the past 2+ seasons, a 2-0 UNDER mark when they've been underdogs on a neutral field. With points proving hard to come by, expect those stats to improve Friday night. | |||||||
12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Chicago OVER the total. This is a low O/U number and I believe it'll prove to be low. While I respect both defenses, neither is unbeatable. Last game, the Bears gave up 20 to Detroit with the Lions using their third string QB. They'll face a far more dangerous offense here. The Cowboys, meanwhile, gave up 26 later in the same day. They've given up 26 or more in three of their past four. Having lost that game against the Bills, note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Cowboys were off a loss as a home favorite. During that span, the Bears, who failed to cover the closing line on Thanksgiving, have seen the OVER go 3-0 when off a SU victory in which they failed to cover. With Dallas games against fellow NFC opponents averaging 50 points this season, look for the final combined score to find its way above the relatively low number. | |||||||
12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Jacksonville/Tampa UNDER the total. Tampa has been an 'over' team for quite a few weeks which has led to a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that Jags' "home" games are averaging only 38.9 points this season. Both these "instate rivals" will view this as a winnable game; they should be playing to win, rather than throwing caution to the wind due to the fact that they're both 4-7. The Jags' offense has really struggled, they've scored an average of only 12 points the past three games. Look for the UNDER to improve to 10-5-1 the past couple of seasons, when the Jags played a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. | |||||||
12-01-19 | 49ers v. Ravens UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/SF UNDER the total. When playing on an 'under,' I look for strong defenses and/or teams which are going to run the ball a lot. We've got both for this game. These teams rank #1 and #2 in the entire NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. A heavy dose of the run will keep the clock moving. Obviously, Lamar Jackson is having a special season. He's up against a special SF defense here though. The 49ers are #1 in the NFL in yards allowed per game and second, behind only New England, in terms of points allowed per game. Also, the Ravens defense has quietly flown under the radar, Jackson stealing all the spotlight. They rank 5th in the NFL, in terms of points allowed per game. The 49ers are going to want to run the ball but the Ravens allow the third fewest rushing yards per game. The 49ers held the Packers to eight points last game while Ravens limited the Rams to six. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. | |||||||
12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tennessee/Indianapolis UNDER the total. When playing on an 'under,' I look for strong defenses and/or teams which are going to run the ball a lot. The Colts rank #3 in the entire NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. That hasn't helped them much though, as they've scored 17 or fewer points in three of their past five games. Still, with a banged up offense, they don't have much choice. While the Titans are only #13 in rushing attempts per game, they featured an extra heavy dose of the run last week. With that having worked out so well for them, I expect them to really emphasize running the ball. Both teams rank in the top 12 in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. However, they're only #16 and #17 in terms of points scored per game. The earlier meeting was low-scoring, having produced just 36 points. The Colts have seen the UNDER go 10-3 off a road loss, 0-3 when off a road loss within the division. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. | |||||||
11-29-19 | Washington State v. Washington UNDER 64 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Washington State UNDER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 50 and produced only 43 points. The previous year, these teams combined for 55 points. That O/U line was also 50. Here, however, we're working with an extra couple of touchdowns, as this is a significantly higher O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Huskies' last two games had scores of 19-7 and 20-14. Of course, the Cougars' last couple of games were much higher-scoring. However, the UNDER is 3-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off b2b games where they scored 42 or more points and 4-1 when they were off a game where they both scored and allowed 30 or more. With the UNDER also a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Huskies had failed to cover three of their previous four, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
11-28-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 58 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Mississippi State / Ole Miss OVER the total. Ole Miss gave up 58 points last game, scoring 37. In their previous game, the Rebels scored 45 points. In their last two games against teams that weren't Alabama, the Bulldogs have scored 54 and 45 points. The last meeting between these teams here produced 59 points but the O/U line was in the mid 60s. We're working with a much lower number here, which is providing excellent value. The Rebels have seen the OVER go 7-1 the past eight times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. That includes a 2-0 OVER mark when playing on the road with an O/U line in that range. With both teams successfully moving the ball, expect those stats to improve Thursday night. | |||||||
11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions OVER 38.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago/Detroit OVER the total. Though its true both teams have had issues scoring, I believe that this total will prove to be too low. Note that Chicago's last couple of visits here had O/U lines of 43 and 44. The Lions have quietly seen the OVER go 4-1 at home this season. The Bears beat the Giants last week but didn't quite beat the closing line. Thats a situation (Bears winning but not covering as a favorite) which has happened twice the past couple of seasons. In both cases, their next game finished above the number. After they eked out a 2-point win at Denver, a game where they closed as -3 point favorites, the Bears' next game produced 46 points. Last season, after winning but not covering against Arizona, the Bears' next game produced 58 points. Interesting, in both cases, the game they won but didn't cover had identical 16-14 scores. Last week's (19-14) wasn't far off. Look for that pattern to continue, as Thursday's early game proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total. The 49ers allow just 15.5 ppg and 253.8 ypg. Only the Patriots have been stingier. The Pack haven't been quite that dominant defensively. However, their 20.5 ppg allowed still ranks in the top half of the NFL. Nobody has scored more than 26 against them since September and last time out, they allowed just 16. The Packers' last two games have produced 40 and 37 points. With a heavy dose of run helping to chew up the clock, look for the UNDER to improve to 6-2 when the 49ers were off a 2-game homestand. | |||||||
11-23-19 | San Diego State v. Hawaii OVER 48 | Top | 11-14 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU/Hawaii OVER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 53 but produced 61 points. This year's O/U line is even lower, providing additional value; I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. Games here at Hawaii have been extremely high-scoring, to say the least. On the season, the Warriors average 36.2 ppg (507.7 ypg) here while allowing an average of 36.5 ppg and 473.2 ypg. Thats roughly 73 points and 1000 yards of offense per game. The last three games here have had combined scores of 82, 79 and 82. While the Aztecs did allow just seven points last time out, the OVER is 2-1 the past couple of seasons, when they were off a game where they allowed nine or less. Look for plenty of points from both teams in this one, another shootout in Hawaii. | |||||||
11-22-19 | Colorado State v. Wyoming OVER 50.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wyoming/CSU OVER the total. Last season's game produced 55 points but I expect an even higher-scoring game here. The Rams average 33 ppg (while allowing 38.6) on the road. The Cowboys average 33 ppg at home. While three of the Ram's last four games did indeed finish below the total, ALL four of those games still produced at least 54. This one will too. Go with the Over. | |||||||
11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 54.5 | Top | 30-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing Toledo/Buffalo UNDER the total. These teams saw last year's game stay below the number by double-digits. The Rockets managed a mere eight first downs for the game. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Bulls lost their last game and that typically results in them playing a lower-scoring game next time out. The UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that they were off a conference loss, 1-3 ATS the past four times that they were off a conference ATS loss. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 22-11, excluding pushes, when the Bulls were off a road loss in MAC play. With Buffalo allowing an average of only 292.8 yards per game, ninth best in the entire country, I expect Toledo to again have trouble moving the ball, the final score again staying below the total. | |||||||
11-19-19 | Ohio v. Bowling Green OVER 56 | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing the OVER in the Bowling Green/Ohio game. The last time these teams met here, they combined for 78 points, Ohio winning 48-30. A similar score tonight won't surprise. The Falcons are not good defensively. Their last three opponents, not named Akron, have scored 38, 49 and 44 points against them. They allow an average of 34.3 ppg in MAC play, to go along with 465.7 yards. Consider that the Bobcats have scored 34 or more points in four of their last five games. While they won't be able to stop Ohio, playing at home, the Falcons should at least be able to score some points. They've scored 20 or more in each of their last three here, 35 in their most recent. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the Falcons were off a loss of six or fewer points, 3-0 the last three. Expect offensive fireworks. | |||||||
11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams OVER 40 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/LA OVER the total. Due to some recent low-scoring results, we're working with a very low O/U number here. In fact, its below the important number of 41. Consider that when these teams met less than a year ago, the O/U line was 50.5. With all due respect to the defenses, I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Rams rarely see totals this low, naturally. Over the past 2+ seasons, they've also seen four O/U lines fall in the 35.5 to 42 range. ALL four of those finished above the total. With the Bears averaging 20.5 ppg on the road and the Rams averaging 24.7 ppg (and allowing 28!) at home, I expect those stats to improve here. | |||||||
11-17-19 | Cowboys v. Lions UNDER 48.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Detroit. UNDER the total. It took a few highlight reel catches to send the Cowboys' last game over the total. With Stafford out for the Lions, it'll take more than that to get this one over. The Cowboys are going to want to get back to running the ball. The Lions are going to have to. That'll keep the clock moving. While Driskel was respectable, the Lions still managed only 13 points with him behind center last week. While the Cowboy offense has indeed played well, Dallas road games are still averaging less than 44 (43.7) points on the season. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss UNDER 65.5 | Top | 58-37 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on LSU/OLE Miss UNDER the total. With LSU's high-scoring game against Alabama fresh in everyone's memories, we're working with a low O/U number here. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that the last two meetings both finished above the total but that was because those O/U lines were lower. Both would have stayed beneath this year's higher number. Prior to the Alabama game, LSU had seen its two previous games finish below the number. Obviously, we all saw that LSU has a big time QB. However, a banged-up offensive line should lead to a somewhat more conservative gameplan. As for the Rebels, they've seen the UNDER go 3-0 their last three overall and 4-1 in their home lined games this season. Last game, they allowed just three points. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times they were listed as home underdogs. Expect those stats to improve here. | |||||||
11-15-19 | Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 42.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Fresno State/SDSU OVER the total. I lost my big total on the Aztecs' "over" last week. However, that won't stop me from making the same play here. The Aztecs allowed 17 points to Nevada, UNLV and San Jose State in their last three. They're going to allow more than than against a Fresno team which scores a lot more than either of those three teams. The Bulldogs have scored 56, 31, 41 and 35 their last four games. In other words, the Aztecs are going to need to score a lot more if they want to keep up. Every single Fresno game has produced a minimum of 47 points. Overall, Bulldog games are averaging 66.7 points on the season. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in Bulldog conference games. With such a low number, expect those stats to improve Friday night. | |||||||
11-13-19 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-44 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Bowling Green/Miami Ohio OVER the total. When these teams met at Bowling Green last year, the O/U line was 55. They combined for 61. When they met here at Miami, the previous year, the O/U line was 51. They combined for 66. Tonight, thanks to some recent 'unders,' we're working with a lower O/U number. Once again, I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Redhawks scored 24 and 23 their last two games. Both were on the road. In their last three home games, they've scored 27, 34 and 48. Thats an average of 36.3 ppg. The Falcons have played at some tough venues, which has led to their road scoring average being very low. However, they scored 35 points last time out. That'll provide confidence and I feel that they'll have more success this evening against a Miami defense which gave up 76 in a game this season. The OVER is 3-0 in Miami Ohio home games, every one of them exceeding tonight's line. Expect those stats to improve. | |||||||
11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 47 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/SF UNDER the total. When choosing a game to finish 'under' the total, I typically look for games where I expect both teams to feature a heavy dose of the run, as that tends to keep the clock moving. I absolutely expect that to be the case here. The 49ers lead the league in rushing attempts per game. They run the ball a whopping 37.9 times per game. The Seahawks aren't that far behind. Including Wilson's carries, the Hawks run the ball 30.3 times per game, fifth most in the league. On defense, the 49ers allow just 12.7 ppg, second only to the Patriots. Their 242 yards allowed per game is the stingiest in the NFL. As for the Hawks, they'll be out to prove that their defense is better than it showed last week. They've seen the UNDER go 5-2 the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. They've also seen the UNDER Go 2-0 as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. | |||||||
11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Dallas UNDER the total. I lost a tough one with the Cowboys 'under' the total on Monday. A defensive TD in the final seconds sent the game over the number. (I did win with Dallas in the same game.) That loss won't prevent me from coming back with the Cowboys 'under' on Sunday night though. The Cowboys' defense was again extremely stingy. They were put in tough (short field) situations repeatedly and responded nearly every time. Barkley was frustrated while Jones had three turnovers and a 74.2 QB rating. The Vikings defense wasn't happy with its performance against KC last week but had allowed just nine points the previous game. When choosing a game to finish 'under' the total, I typically look for games where I expect both teams to feature a heavy dose of the run, as that tends to keep the clock moving. I absolutely expect that to be the case here. Minnesota ranks #3 in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. Dallas ranks #7. They're #3 and #4, respectively, in terms of rushing yards per game. With both teams doing a lot of chewing up the clock on the ground, I expect a relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday night. | |||||||
11-09-19 | Nevada v. San Diego State OVER 39.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -106 | 109 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Nevada/SDSU OVER the total. With all due respect to the Aztec defense, which has admittedly been pretty stingy, I feel that this O/U number, which is among the lowest on the entire board, will prove to be too low. Note that the line has even come down from its already low opener, providing even further value. When these teams met at Nevada, last season, the O/U line was 46.5. Yet, they combined for 52. When these teams met here at SDSU the previous season, the O/U line was 56.5. Yet, they combined for 65. Note that the weather, as per usual in sunny San Diego, is expected to be pretty much perfect for playing football. (5-day forecast for SD calls for a high of 82 on Saturday, a low of 58, mostly sunny with very little wind.) None of the issues that one can encounter at this time of the year in other parts of the country. While the Aztec defense has been good, it hasn't been unbeatable. The Aztecs have allowed at least 17 in each of their last three games. They've allowed 22 or more in each of their past two home games. Nevada, which averages 19.3 ppg, allowed 31 and 36 its last two road games. Opposing teams are averaging 449.5 yards per game when the Wolfpack play on the road. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the OVER improving to 4-1 the past five times that Nevada was off a double-digit conf. win. | |||||||
11-05-19 | Ball State v. Western Michigan OVER 63 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ball State / Western Michigan OVER the total. When these teams met last season, they combined for 83 points. While 13 of those did come in OT, they still combined for 70 in regulation. The teams combined for 897 total yards, the Broncos putting up 548 of them. This should be another very high-scoring affair. Western Michigan scored 49 in its last game. Thats the third time already that the Broncos have scored 48 or more in a game. Ball State allowed 34 last time out, after scoring 52 in its previous game. While the OVER is 7-3 the past 10 times that the Cardinals are off a double-digit conference loss, the Broncos have seen the OVER go 5-1 the last six times that they were off a win of 28 or more points. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball, the final combined score again finishing above the number. | |||||||
11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 48.5 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS/NY UNDER the total. This season's first meeting had an O/U line of 44. We're working with a higher number here, which I feel is providing us with excellent value. When choosing a game to finish 'under' the total, I typically look for games where I expect both teams to feature a heavy dose of the run, as that tends to keep the clock moving. I absolutely expect that to be the case here. The Giants have Barkley back and want to feed him as much as they can. On the other side, Elliott comes in hot and looking to prove he's the better running back in this matchup. Expect both to see plenty of touches. The Cowboys held the Eagles to just 10 points in their last game, a 37-10 blowout, prior to their bye. That's three times in five games that they've allowed 12 points or less. Note that the UNDER is 8-3 the past couple of seasons, when the Cowboys were off a divisional win. During that span, the UNDER is also a perfect 3-0 when Dallas was off a win of 21 or more points. The Giants have already seen the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 at home; the UNDER is now 13-7 the last 20 games here. Expect those stats to improve tonight. | |||||||
11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 170 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on Balt/NE OVER the total. While the Pats have seen the majority of their games fall below the total, they know that they're going to need to score points if they want to keep up with the Ravens. Baltimore put up 30 points, at Seattle last week. The Ravens have scored 23 or more every game, averaging 30.6. In their three home games, they're averaging 444 yards. Overall, they average 434.9 yards per game. Thats more than the Pats, who average 370.1 yards per game, 340.1 on the road. However, the Pats have a slight edge in scoring, at 31.2 ppg. Either way, thats two teams averaging more than 30. We're going to see some fireworks. The last time these teams met the O/U line was 46 and they combined for 53. Look for this one to also prove higher scoring than expected. | |||||||
11-03-19 | Jets v. Dolphins OVER 42 | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Miami OVER the total. Both these teams are playing out the string. That said, there's little reason to be conservative. The Dolphins have seen the OVER go 7-2 their last nine as home underdogs of seven or fewer points. Note that the Dolphins have now allowed 27 or more points in every game but one. The Jets are off b2b losses and have now dropped three of their last four, both SU and against the number. Thats noteworthy as the OVER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Jets had failed to cover the spread in three of their previous four games. Expect more of the same Sunday afternoon. | |||||||
11-03-19 | Texans v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Jacksonville UNDER the total. These teams combined for 25 points when they faced each other earlier, a 13-12 win for the Texans. That makes it three straight meetings which have produced 27 or fewer combined points. Last season's games finished with scores of 20-3 and 20-7. While the Jags' offense remains without Foles, the defense is dialing it up. The Jags have now allowed 17 or fewer points in three straight games. Last week, the Jags had eight sacks and forced three turnovers. Here, they'll be up against a banged-up Houston offensive line. The Texans have seen the UNDER go 8-3 their last 11, when off a home win. Going back further finds the UNDER at 11-2 the last 13 times that the Texans were off a home win of three or less. While this game will very likely prove higher-scoring than the first matchup, it won't be enough to send the final score above this big number. Look for the UNDER to move to 8-3 the last 11 times that the Jags attempted to avenge a road loss. | |||||||
11-02-19 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 65 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/UCLA UNDER the total. These teams combined for 50 and 54 points the last two seasons. This evening, we're working with an O/U line in the 60s. I feel that line is generous and that it'll prove to be too high. The Buffaloes have scored just 13 (10 +3) points their last two road games. While the offense has gotten going of late, this is still a UCLA team which has scored 17 or less four different times. As for the high O/U line, note that the UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that Colorado played a game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, a perfect 3-0 to the UNDER when the Buffaloes played a road game with an O/U line in the 63.5 to 70 range. With the UNDER also 5-2 the past seven times that UCLA played a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Pittsburgh OVER the total. We've seen a lot of low-scoring primetime games so far this season. I don't expect this to be one of them. With an 0-6 record, the Dolphins have little reason for caution. They'll be going all out to score. I expect them to have some success in that area. Last time out, the Dolphins score 21, at Buffalo. Of course, stopping the Steelers from doing so is an entirely different matter. The Steelers average more than 25 ppg at home and they should be able to exceed that against this porous defense. The Dolphins have given up 30 or more points in five of six games. Overall, they give up an average of 35.5 ppg and 417.7 ypg. Ugly. Look for the OVER to improve to 5-1 the last six times that the Steelers were coming off an upset (SU win as an underdog) in their last game. | |||||||
10-27-19 | Giants v. Lions UNDER 50 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Detroit UNDER the total. These teams have met twice over the past few seasons. Those games had scores of 17-6 and 24-10. Those games both had O/U lines in the low 40s. We're working with a much higher number here; I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Note that the UNDER is 9-4 the last 13 times that the Giants played a road game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. True, the Lions got lit up by the Vikings last week. However, the Vikes have a more potent attack than the Giants. Also, note that the UNDER is 7-2 the past nine times that the Lions were coming off a game where they'd allowed 30 or more points. I expect a heavy dose of the ground game from both teams. We know the Giants want to run the ball. They fell behind last week. So, they were forced to throw more than they'd like. That led to sacks and turnovers. They're going to be anxious to avoid a similar fate here and will be highly motivated to establish, and stick with, the run. Meanwhile, the Lions saw Arizona run all over the Giants last week and they'll be looking to do the same. Look for that to help keep the clock moving and ultimately for the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high total. | |||||||
10-26-19 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 49 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/OSU UNDER the total. The last time that these teams met, the O/U line was 51 and they combined for 48 points. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. I played against the Badgers last week. So, I was happy to see them lose outright to Illinois. Before that, however, they'd recorded b2b shutouts and four shutouts in six games overall. While they obviously won't blank the Buckeyes, they should do a better job of slowing them down than other teams have been able to. On the other side, Ohio State has now allowed 10 or fewer points in six straigth games. This is indeed a dominant defense. Look for the UNDER to improve to 4-1 last five times that Ohio State was favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. | |||||||
10-25-19 | USC v. Colorado OVER 60.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 99 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC/Colorado OVER the total. The Buffalos are a poor defensive team. They've given up at least 30 points in all seven of their games. So, its likely that the Trojans, who scored 41 last time out, will exceed that mark. When playing at home, Colorado has been able to score. So, while the Trojans will score, the Buffalos will trade points with them. They've scored 34, 23 and 30 in their three games here. The OVER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons when Colorado was off a 2-game road trip. Going back further finds the OVER at 8-4 when the Buffalos were off b2b road losses. Bottom line: I expect both teams to have success moving the ball and feel that the number is too low. Go OVER. | |||||||
10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 51 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/NY UNDER the total. With a heavy dose of the run helping to chew up the clock, I believe that this O/U number is generously high. Indeed, both teams are going to be running with regularity. The Giants have seen all three of their road games finish above the total, each finishing with a minimum of 49 combined points. However, the opposite has been true here at home. Their three home games have all fallen below the number, none producing more than 42 points. Going back further finds the UNDER at 12-7 in their games here the past 2+ seasons. Meanwhile, Arizona has seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 against NFC East teams the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 9-3 when the Cards had allowed 30 or more points in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. | |||||||
10-18-19 | Ohio State v. Northwestern UNDER 50 | Top | 52-3 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Northwestern UNDER the total. With the Buckeyes having scored 76 themselves in a game this season, this number may initially appear a little low. However, a closer look reveals that its likely not low enough. Note that the UNDER is already 2-0 when the Buckeyes played a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. While people immediately think of its offense, Ohio State has now quietly allowed 10 points or less in five straight games. Meanwhile, Northwestern has seen all five of its games produce 44 or fewer combined points. Those games had scores of 17-7, 30-14, 31-10, 24-15 and 13-10. Not surprisingly, four of those five games stayed below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
10-17-19 | UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 50.5 | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA/Stanford UNDER the total. These teams have been involved in some very high-scoring games the past couple of seasons. After the 2017 game at Stanford finished with 92 points, last year's game at UCLA produced 91. This is an entirely new season though and I don't expect even half that many tonight. The Cardinal are going to run the ball. A lot. With Cameron Scarlett chewing up the clock, the Cardinal average more than 35 mins of possession time per game, among the most in the nation. They did it with defense last time out, holding Washington to a mere 13 points and less than 300 total yards. Pretty good considering that Washington had previously been averaging 45 ppg on the road along with 477 ypg, on the road. The Bruins have already seen the UNDER go 3-1 as underdogs this season, 2-0 as road underdogs of seven or fewer points. Stanford has seen alll three road games finish above the total but all three at home stay below the number. The three games here finished with scores of 17-7, 21-6 and 23-13. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
10-16-19 | South Alabama v. Troy OVER 55 | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Alamba / Troy OVER the total. Since 2015, this "rivalry" has been known as "The Battle Of The Belt." South Alabama senior Roy Albritton had this to say: "It's probably one of the more 'odd' rivalries in the nation. The away team has always won, and also, no team has kept the belt more than one year. So that’s a big thing we're riding on as well. We know what's ahead of us and we know what we need to do to get it done." As for the total, this is a low number. In fact, Troy could potentially exceed it on its own. The Trojans, who scored 38 at South Alabama last season, have already topped the 40 mark in all three home games. Their most recent game here produced 93 combined points. South Alabama will also contribute though. The Jaguars haven't been blanked this season and you just read about the away team having success in this matchup. The Jags scored 17 each of their last two games and 21, when playing at Nebraska. Look for the OVER to improve to 6-1 the last seven times Troy was off a bye. | |||||||
10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Detroit/GB UNDER the total. The last meeting between these teams produced just 31 points, all scored by Detroit. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. While this is Detroit's first divisional game this season, Greey Bay has already faced a pair of NFC North opponents. Both games (Chicago and Minnesota) fell comfortably below the number, the first by double-digits. It should be noted that the Packers are without Adams, their top receiver. True, the Lions gave up 34 points last time out. However, the UNDER is 6-2 the past eight times that they had allowed 30 or more in their previous game. Note that the Lions have seen the UNDER go 12-7 on Monday night over the years. With the UNDER also a perfect 3-0 the past three times that the Pack were off an "upset" win, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
10-13-19 | Redskins v. Dolphins OVER 41 | 17-16 | Loss | -101 | 71 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Washington/Miami OVER the total. A pair of winless teams from opposite conferences have little reason to play cautiously. The Skins have allowed more than 30 points in four of their five games. The Dolphins have allowed 30 or more points in every game, an average of 40.7 ppg allowed, by far the worst in the NFL. In three home games, that average increases to 44 ppg. The Dolphins are also allowing a whopping 472.5 ypg. Thats more than 60 extra yards per game than the second worst team. With the OVER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Dolphins were home underdogs of seven or fewer points, look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number. | |||||||
10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 147 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/Jacksonville UNDER the total. Both teams saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have helped in keeping this O/U line a little higher than it otherwise could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Both defenses have shown, at times, that they can get it done. The Jags held Houston to 13 points and 253 total yards. They also limited the Titans to a mere seven points. The Saints, meanwhile, delivered a dominant defensive performance against Dallas, limiting the Cowboys to 10 points and 45 yards on the ground. While both backups have proven capable, its still worth mentioning that both teams are without their starting QBs. While the Saints may have scored 31 for me last week against Tampa, the UNDER is 13-7 the past 20 times that they'd scored 30 or more points in their previous game. During that span, the UNDER is also 4-2 when the Saints were road underdogs of three or fewer points. As for the Jags, the UNDER is 5-2 the past seven times that they'd allowed 30 or more points in their previous game and a lucrative 9-1 the past 10 times that they were off a road loss. Look for those stats to imorove Sunday afternoon, as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
10-12-19 | Florida v. LSU UNDER 55.5 | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Florida/LSU UNDER the total. The last three meetings have produced 26, 33 and 46 points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday. The Gators have seen all six of their games, even a non-lined game, produce 50 or fewer combined points. They've had two outright shutouts and have allowed 21 or less in every game. Last time out, they limited Auburn to 13 points. Auburn had previously been averaging 38 ppg. The (LSU) Tigers also showed they're capable of dominating defensively last time out, as they held Utah State to just six points. Thats pretty good when considering that the Aggies entered that game averaging 38.5 points. Look for this one to again prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Virginia/Miami UNDER the total. These teams combined for just 29 points when they faced each other last season, a 16-13 Virginia win. I'm expecting another defensive affair this evening. Including last year's game, the Cavs have seen the UNDER go 5-2 in October the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-1 when they're off a bye. As for the Canes, they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 in October the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-0 when they've been listed as home favorites of seven or less. I think both defenses are better than they showed in their last game. Miami had allowed just 12 points combined its previous two games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev/SF OVER the total. The 49ers entered the week ranked third in the NFL in terms of points per game. They're averaging 32 ppg. Their 421 yards per game ranked fourth. The Browns exploded for 40 points last time out. Not only did they throw for 337 yards but they also ran for another 193. The Browns have seen the OVER go 4-2 the past six times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. During the same span, the OVER is 2-1 when the 49ers played a home game with an O/U line in the same range. With the OVER at 4-1 the past five times that the 49ers were listed as home favorites, look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
10-06-19 | Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 101 | 167 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/KC UNDER the total. These teams last met in January. The O/U line was 55 but they combined for just 44 points. I believe that this one will also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Mahomes and the Chiefs obviously have a very capable offense. Its not quite as potent or explosive without Tyreke Hill though. The Chiefs' defense gave up some points vs. Detroit last week. However, KC did previously limit Oakland to 10 points. So, the D is absolutely capable of stepping up. The Colts have yet to score more than 27 points and they've scored 24 or less in three of their four games. While they may both play, Mack and Hilton, key parts to the offense, remain banged-up. Note that the UNDER is 13-6 the last 19 times that the Colts were off a loss. You might be surprised to learn that the Chiefs have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. Expect those stats to improve Sunday night. | |||||||
10-05-19 | Oregon State v. UCLA UNDER 66.5 | Top | 48-31 | Loss | -119 | 98 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon State/UCLA UNDER the total. Its true that the Bruins put up 67 points at Washington State. However, its also true that they've scored 17 or less in all four of their other games. They're likely to exceed 17 against the Beavers but I don't expect them to come anywhere close to the number they put up against the Cougars. Oregon State has allowed 31 or fewer points in three straight games. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 48.5. That was here in 2016. Here, we're working with a considerably higher number. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Bruins played a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. Both this season's games here finished below the number. Even the game against Oklahoma, a very high-scoring team, didn't reach this O/U number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, once again. | |||||||
10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 49 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Temple/ECU OVER the total. The Pirates have seen the "under" go 5-0 this season. Those results have helped keep this O/U line a little lower than it could have otherwise been. Note that the last two games in this series had O/U lines of 53.5 last season and 58.5, here at ECU two seasons ago. A closer look reveals that three of the Pirates' five "unders" were within a couple of points of the number. They had a game which finished with 57 when the O/U line was 58.5, a game which finished with 52 when the O/U line was 53 and one which finished with 45 when the O/U line was 47. Really, only one of their games finished with less than 40 and only two with less than 45. The Pirates scored a minor upset of ODU in their last game. Thats worth noting as the OVER is 6-2 their last eight off an ATS win and 3-1 their last four, when off a SU win as an underdog. Temple's lone road game finished above the total with 60 points. With that result, the OVER is 8-5 in Owl road games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finding its way above the relatively low number. | |||||||
09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 51 | Top | 55-40 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tampa/LA UNDER the total. While the Bucs are off a high-scoring game at Tampa, their lone road game had a final score of just 20-14. Likewise, the Rams' lone home game was also low-scoring, a 27-9 win over New Orleans. Last week, the Rams were again dominant defensively, traveling to Cleveland and limiting the Browns to 13 points and 270 total yards. The Rams rank #3 in the NFL with 285.7 yards allowed per game. Thats particularly impressive given that they haven't faced any teams like Miami or the Jets yet either. The Bucs have seen the UNDER go 5-3 their last eight, off a home loss. During the same span, the Rams have seen the UNDER go 10-5, when off a road win. All things considered, this number is generously high. | |||||||
09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants UNDER 49 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Washington/NY UNDER the total. There's a lot of excitement with Jones having won his first start and with the home fans getting to see him for the first time. That excitement has helped lead to a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. While Barkley is out, the Giants will still want to run the ball. Likewise, the Skins want/need to start getting their ground game going. Last season's games had O/U lines of 40 and 44. The game here, the one with the 44 total, finished with a score of 20-13. It was just 7-3 at halftime. Washington's previous visit here finished with a score of 18-10. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
09-28-19 | Cincinnati v. Marshall OVER 44.5 | 52-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Cincy/Marshall OVER the total. The Bearcats have seen their first three games fall below the total, the most recent game (35-13) doing so by just a point. However, I expect that to change Saturday. The Herd gave up 31 points last week, scoring 33 themselves. In its first game, Marshall put up 56 points and more than 600 yards of offense. Note that the Bearcats have seen the OVER go 4-0 off a win by 17 or more points. They've also seen the OVER go 4-0 when off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, the OVER is also a perfect 5-0 the last five, when Marshall was off a bye. These teams met in 2017. The O/U line was 53.5 and they combined for 59. While we're working with a considerably lower number here, I look for the final score to again prove higher than most will be expecting. | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers UNDER 48 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/GB UNDER the total. The Packer defense has been very stingy all season. They've held all three opponents to fewer than 17 points. All three GB games have produced fewer than 44 combined points. They've averaged just 31 combined points. While the Eagles will be looking to run the ball with regularity, on the other side of the ball, they've also been tough against the run. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 47 but produced just 40 points. With the UNDER 6-1 the last seven times that the Eagles had dropped two of their previous three, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 54 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Navy/Memphis OVER the total. When these teams met last season, the O/U line was 67. When they met the previous season, the O/U line was 73. We're working with a much lower number tonight. Yet, a look at the numbers reveals that it could easily be higher. Navy has scored 45 and 42 points, while averaging 499 yards per game. Memphis is averaging 37.3 ppg, on the strength of 490 yards per game. In their last two games, the Tigers have scored 55 and 42 points. Memphis has seen the OVER go 8-1 its last nine Thursday games, 2-0 the past couple of seasons. During that time, Navy also saw both its Thursday games finish above the number. The Tigers have seen the OVER go 10-4 as home favorites the past couple of seasons. That includes a 3-0 OVER mark when listed as a home favorite in the -7.5 to -14 range. Expect those stats to improve this evening. | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 42.5 | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 193 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Washington OVER the total. These teams last met in 2016. The O/U line was 49.5 and they combined for 62 points. We're working with a much lower O/U line this time. While most of the faces are, of course, different, I look for this one to again prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. Though the Bears have admittedly been playing good defense, the Skins have not. They gave up 32 points in Week 1 and 31 points in Week 2. The 31.5 ppg allowed average is tied for the worts in the NFC. They're allowing an average of 455 yards per game. Only Arizona and Miami have been worse. Over the past couple of seasons, the OVER is 3-1-1 when the Bears were off b2b games where they scored 17 or fewer points. Facing the porous Washington defense, look for the Chicago offense to get healthy, the teams combining for enough to send the final score above the low number. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Dolphins v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Dallas UNDER the total. Over the years, the UNDER is 21-7 when the Fish have faced NFC East teams. Those stats will improve Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins didn't manage a single point last week. The Cowboys defense will be looking to "get healthy" and to also have a huge game. While the Dolphins may not get completely blanked again, they likely won't score many either. Once the Cowboys get ahead - even before then - they'll be employing a very heavy dose of the run. That'll keep the clock moving. The UNDER is 4-1 the past five Dallas home games with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. During that span, the UNDER is also a perfect 3-0/100% when the Cowboys were off b2b double-digit wins. Expect those stats to improve here. | |||||||
09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia OVER 57 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND/Georgia OVER the total. While I do respect these defenses, I also feel that the offenses are a little better than many are seeming to believe. The Irish scored 35 points their first game. Then, in their second game, they nearly doubled that, scoring 66. Meanwhile, Georgia has scored 30, 60 and 53. The Irish have seen the OVER go 6-4 their last 10 on the road, 2-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. Yes, the Bulldogs are off a shutout last time out. However, the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off a shutout. Yes, that marked the third straight time that Georgia had allowed 17 or fewer points. However, thats a situation (when the Bulldogs had allowed 17 or less in 3 straight) where the OVER is a perfect 5-0 the past couple of seasons. Look for those stats to improve Saturday evening, as this one proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
09-20-19 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-43 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU/LA Tech OVER the total. When these teams met in 2016, the O/U line was 64.5. The teams combined for 68. Needless to say, we've got all new players tonight; the O/U line is significantly lower. Once again, however, I expect it to prove to be too low. The FIU offense gained some confidence last week, rushing for over 300 yards and scoring 30 points. The defense gave up 42, at Tulane, in its lone road game. Likewise, the LA Tech offense gained some confidence in putting up 35 last week, throwing for more than 300 yards. Likewise, the defense has also had a game where it allowed more than 40. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball in this one, the OVER improving to 8-4 in FIU's last 12 on the road. | |||||||
09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing Arizona/Baltimore UNDER the total. I believe that this number is generously high. The Ravens, admittedly, looked impressive in destroying Miami last week. Note that the UNDER is 9-3-1 the past 13 times that Baltimore was off a win by 21 or more points. That includes a 2-0 UNDER mark when the Ravens have been in that situation the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-0 when the Ravens played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Cards offense managed only three points in the first half last week. Expect the Cards to struggle scoring this week, the Ravens featuring a heavy dose of the run, keeping the clock moving and the final combined score below the number. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Buffalo v. Liberty OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Liberty OVER the total. After struggling in the opener, the Liberty offense made some strides last week. I expect the Flames to break through with a much better offensive performance this week. They're back home and the Bulls are a team they'll be able to move the ball against. The Liberty offense has been pretty explosive the past couple of seasons under now senior QB Buckshot Calvert. Keep in mind that coach Hugh Freeze had a reputation as an offensive genius. The Liberty defense is far from dominant, however, and Buffalo will also be able to move the ball. Remember, this team gave up 777 yards in a game to UMass last season. Look for the OVER to improve to 7-1 the past eight times that Buffalo was a favorite in the -3.5 to -10 point range. | |||||||
09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston OVER 73 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington State/Houston OVER the total. While the O/U line may look high, it could easily be much higher. Washington State has scored 58 and 59 points so far this season. Houston, meanwhile, has scored 31 and 37 points, also giving up 49 in its lone game against a quality opponent. In fact, even Prairie View scored 17 against Houston. Note that the OVER is 8-5 the past couple of seasons when WSU was off a home win. Expect both Cougar teams to put up a big number, leading to the final combined score finishing above the total. | |||||||
09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints UNDER 53 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/NO UNDER the total. With all due respect to these offenses, I feel that this O/U number is generously high. While the Texans aren't recently familiar with O/U lines this high, note that the UNDER is 15-9 the past couple of seasons when the Saints played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-4, during that span, when the Texans were listed as road underdogs. The Texans are going to be doing their best to keep Brees and the Saints off the field. Look for them to keep the clock moving, leading to the final score being lower than many will be expecting. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Lions v. Cardinals UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Det/Arizona UNDER the total. These teams met here last season. The O/U line was 40.5 and they only combined for 20 points. The score was only 3-0 at halftime. Including that low-scoring affair, the UNDER is 11-5 in games here the past two seasons. While its a "new era" in Arizona, I don't expect any immediate change. Sure, there's a lot of excitement - but this is still a rookie QB with a rookie head coach and a brand new offensive system. Look for them to be a little more conservative than many may expect. Look for the final score to again finish below the number. | |||||||
09-07-19 | California v. Washington OVER 42.5 | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cal/Washington OVER the total. This is an extremely low O/U number. While I do respect both defenses, I feel that it'll prove to be too low. True, last season's game at Berkeley was low-scoring. However, the previous two meetings produced 138 combined points. While the Huskies have seen more 'unders' than 'overs' overall the past couple of seasons, its the OVER which is 2-0 when they've been listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. Also, note that the OVER is 7-2 the past nine times that Washington played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range. Expect the Huskies, playing with revenge from last year's game, to put up a relatively big number, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way. Meanwhile, the Bears Will chip in enough to send the final combined score above the low number. | |||||||
09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 57 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/Boise UNDER the total. Both teams saw their opening game finish above the total which has led to a generously high number Friday night. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Marshall's QB Isaiah Green looked good last week against inferior opposition but he's going to be facing a lot of pressure in this one; Boise recorded four sacks in last week's win over Florida State. Don't expect the Broncos to give Green much time. On the other side, look for a very heavy dose of running back Robert Mahone when the Broncos have the ball. The frequent run plays will help keep the clock moving. The Broncos have seen the UNDER go 10-4 at home the past couple of seasons. That includes a 4-1 UNDER mark when listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -14 range. Expect those stats to improve here. | |||||||
09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 633 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/GB OVER the total. Rodgers has a new coach and a new "new age" offense. He's got capable backs along with weapons at receiver Adams and Valdes-Scantling. Jimmy Graham is back. While the Packers' offense is in good hands, slowing down the Bears is another matter. The Packers defense ranked just 22nd in terms of points allowed last season. The Bears scored 24 points the last meeting between the teams and 23 in the one before that. They should get even more than that tonight; Trubisky and the offense got better last season and is healthy and ready to go. The OVER is 13-7 the past 20 times that the Pack played a game where the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 49. During that span, the OVER is also 8-4 when they were road underdogs. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on ND/Louisville OVER the total. The OVER is 9-4 the past 13 times that the Irish played a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range, 4-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in that range. During that span, Louisville has seen the OVER go 9-2 when listed as an underdog, 4-1 when a home underdog. The Cardinals do return a lot of starters on defense. However, thats not as hopeful as it sounds as their defense wasn't very good last year. Indeed, they ranked in the bottom 5 of the country at stopping the run. They'll have serious trouble slowing down an Irish team determined to start the season with a blowout win. While the Irish will put up a healthy number, the Cardinals will also be able to score enough to send the final combined score above the relatively low number. | |||||||
08-31-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis UNDER 65.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ole Miss/Memphis UNDER the total. These were two of the top offenses in the country last season. Naturally, as a result, we're working with a fairly generous O/U number. However, keep in mind that both these teams, particularly the Rebels, returned considerably more defensive starters than they did offensive ones. While the Tigers have indeed played more overs than unders overall the past couple of seasons, that hasn't been the case when they've been home favorites of this size. In fact, the UNDER is 2-0 the past two seasons when Memphis was a home favorite of a touchdown or less. While the 'over' has been profitable overall for Ole Miss the past couple of seasons, that hasn't been the case when the Rebels have been underdogs, the UNDER cashing seven of 12. Look for the UNDER to improve to 11-3 the past 14 times that Ole Miss played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. | |||||||
08-30-19 | Wisconsin v. South Florida OVER 57 | Top | 49-0 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on USF/Wisconsin OVER the total. The Bulls brought back plenty of offensive starters from a team which averaged 28.5 ppg and 438 yards per game. Defense was another matter. The Bulls fell apart in the second half and the collapse was thanks to the porous defense. They're going to have serious problems with stopping the Badger ground attack. The OVER has been money when the Badgers were road favorites in this range and is also 9-2 in Wisconsin's last 11 road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63 points. With both teams moving the ball effectively, expect those stats to improve this evening. | |||||||
08-29-19 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson UNDER 61 | Top | 14-52 | Loss | -113 | 33 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/GT UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Clemson's most recent time on the field. The Tigers scored 44 against an extremely good defense (Alabama) in that one. So, I certainly have respect for their offense. They're pretty talented defensively too though and they're going to be out to - and able to - prove that on Thursday. In this one, the Tigers will eventually build a comfortable lead. At that point, they should be happy to slow things down and help their young defense build some confidence by running the ball and putting it on cruise control. Note that the UNDER is 12-6 in Clemson's conference games the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 9-4 when they were listed as home favorites. The last time that G-Tech visited here, the score was 24-10. That one stayed below the total by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 57 | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 200 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/NE UNDER the total. The two games in championship rd averaged 63.5 points. That makes it seem as if both games were very high-scoring. That wasn't the case though; those games were far more defensive in nature than that average indicates. The Saints game produced 49 points, 46 in regulation. Though relatively high-scoring to a "regular" NFL game, that was still enough to stay well below the total. Meanwhile, the Pats combined with the Chiefs for a whopping 68 points. That was a very misleading final though as the score was 14-0 into the second half and 17-7 into the fourth quarter. In other words, both defenses were arguably better than they're being given credit for. The UNDER is 1-0 when the Rams were underdogs and 11-6 when the Pats were favored. With the UNDER also at 4-1 when the Pats were off a game in which they allowed 30 or more points, look for the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number. W/ BONUS FIRST HALF PLAY: I’m playing on LA for the first half. While I successfully played against them in the first half of the Saints game, I like the Rams to get off to a quick start in this one. Admittedly, they're a bit fortunate to be here. That doesn't mean that they're not the better team though. Much has changed since Brady and Goff met two years ago, a 26-10 win for the Patriots. Both QBs have gotten older, a good thing for Goff's development but not necessarily for Brady. Goff had Gurley back then. However, he also had Jeff Fisher (tied for most reg. season losses in NFL history) coaching him and nearly everything else has changed, too. The Rams are stronger across the board then they were. The same cannot necessarily be said of the Pats. The Rams averaged 32.4 ppg this season, the Pats averaged 28.6. While not many will make mention of it, I believe that the environment (stadium) helps LA and I like that the Rams are coming off a game in New Orleans as compared to the Patriots coming off a very cold game at Arrowhead. The Aaron Donald factor on defense needs to be mentioned; he can and does change games. It also needs to be noted that the Rams were a perfect 4-0 against the AFC this season, including wins against the Chiefs and Chargers, the two teams that N.E. beat to get here. Look for the Rams to jump off to a quick start Sunday. | |||||||
01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -109 | 130 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on New England/KC UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). When you think of a Brady/Mahomes matchup, most will immediately think of an offensive shootout. Not so fast. The Chiefs are off an absolutely dominant defensive effort. The Colts could do nothing against them until late. While the Pats game against SD was high-scoring, they'd previously allowed 3, 12 and 17 points in their previous three games, all of which finished below the total. The UNDER is 17-7 the Pats' last 24 road games and that includes a 7-2 UNDER mark in road games when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Expect frigid temperatures to help in keeping this one lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 50.5 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -100 | 131 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philly/NO OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). While I won with the Eagles 'under' last round, that was at Chicago, against a defensive-minded Bears team. A showdown with Sean Payton's Saints, at New Orleans, is an entirely different matter; I'm expect a considerably higher-scoring affair. When these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 55 points, a 48-7 destruction in favor of the Saints. Even with the 55 points scored, the final score stayed below the total, as the O/U line for that game was a high 56.5. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower number here. I feel thats providing outstanding value. Even factoring in last week's result, the OVER remains a healthy 8-3 the last 11 times that the Eagles were listed as road underdogs, 15-7 their last 22 on the road overall. The Eagles know that they're going to need to score a lot more points to keep up with the Saints, who average more then 34 ppg here, than they needed to beat Chicago. It hasn't happened often through the years but is worth mentioning the OVER is 2-0 the past two times that the Eagles attempted to avenge a road loss of 28 or more points. The OVER is also 6-2 the past eight times that the Eagles were off a SU win as an underdog. Even with the earlier 55-point game staying below the total, the Saints have seen the OVER go 16-9 their last 25 here. The Saints have also seen the OVER go 15-8 their past 23 in the month of January, a 3-0 OVER mark in January the past couple of years. The Saints will put up a fairly big number, as per usual. This time, however, expect the Eagles to also be far more effective on offense than they were here earlier meeting, leading to the combined final scoring finishing above the number. | |||||||
01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 49.5 | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/LA UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Given how well both defenses are playing right now, I believe that this total is generously high. The Cowboys rank in the top 10 of nearly all the main defensive categories. Meanwhile, the Rams held three of their final five opponents to less than 17 points. On offense, its no secret that both teams are going to lean heavily on their ground game. These are to of the best backs in the business and both teams rank in the top 10 in the league, in terms of total rush attempts per game. As you know, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. The Cowboys have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 17-7 on the road the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 12-5 when Dallas was coming off a home win. The UNDER is also 13-6 over that time, when the Cowboys were off two or more consecutive wins. That includes a 2-0 UNDER mark when Dallas was off two or more consecutive wins of six or fewer points. Look for those stats to improve, the final combined score again proving lower than most will be expecting. | |||||||
01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson OVER 59 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 150 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/Alabama OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the OVER. Prior to last season's 30-point affair, the games the two previous years had produced 85 and 66 combined points, respectively. Yet, despite both teams coming off an 'under' last week and despite last season's 'defensive battle,' this is the highest O/U line of any of the four meetings. There's a good reason for that. While the defenses remain stout, these offenses are both extremely capable of putting up big numbers. The Tigers average 44.3 ppg. The Tide average 47.7. Speaking of the O/U line being the highest of any of the Clemson games; the Tide have seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0 this season, when playing a game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect some offensive fireworks. | |||||||
01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 41 | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 144 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philly/Chicago UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Strong all season, the Bears' defense is peaking at the right time. The last four games Chicago allowed 10, 9, 17 and 6 points. Opponents included the Vikings, Packers and Rams; teams normally capable of scoring. The Bears' 17.7 ppg allowed ranked #1 in the NFL. The Eagles held the Bears to three points last season and they're also counting on their defense to lead them to an upset. Last time out, they didn't allow a single point, a 24-0 win over Washington. While both teams are going to want to run, both these teams are very capable at stropping the run. Only seven teams allow less than 100 rushing yards per game and these are two of them. The Bears rank #1 at 79.9 ypg, the Eagles rank #7 at 96.9 rushing yards allowed per game. The UNDER was 2-0 this season when the Bears played a home game with an O/U line ranging from 38.5 to 42. Expect those stats to improve Sunday evening. | |||||||
01-01-19 | Texas v. Georgia UNDER 59 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas/Georgia UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that Georgia was involved in a few high-scoring games to close out the season. However, the opposite was true of Texas. The Longhorns enter this game off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. In fact, all three stayed below the number by double-digits. Even with one of those opponents being Oklahoma, those three games averaged 47 combined points. The UNDER is now 25-13 in all Texas games the past few seasons, 10-4 when the Longhorns were listed as underdogs. Obviously, the Bulldogs are an elite team with a talented offense and QB. They're still primarily a running based attack though, which leads to them running fewer plays per game than the majority of the opponents that Texas is used to facing. (Georgia ranks 101st nationally with 67.9 plays per game.) On the other side, the Longhorns know that they need to get their own ground game going to help churn up the clock and keep the Bulldogs on the sideline. Sure, Georgia will be without star defensive back Deandre Baker. However, this is still the best secondary that Texas will have gone up against. The last two Sugar Bowls produced an average of just 42 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
12-31-18 | Missouri v. Oklahoma State UNDER 75 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 213 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Missouri and Oklahoma State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The mere mention of these teams has many immediately thinking shootout. I'm not one of them. Sure, we'll see some points but ultimately I believe that the O/U number will prove to be too high. The Missouri defense comes in full of confidence. The Tigers allowed ZERO points in their last game, a 38-0 win. They allowed 28 or fewer points in their final five games, 17 or less in four of those. Overall, they allowed an average of less than 16 ppg in those five. The Cowboys returned seven starters on the defensive side of the ball and were projected to have their best defense since 2013. Of course, when playing against the likes of Oklahoma and WVU, you're going to give up some points. The Cowboys' last game came against TCU; that one produced 'only' 55 combined points. Note that the Cowboys offense, which returned five starters from last year's team, will be without Justice Hill, a very key loss. Mike Gundy tends to get the most from his defense in the bowls. The Cowboys' last five bowl games have produced 72, 52, 68, 46 and 51 combined points. In the last two of those, the Cowboy defense allowed just eight and 21 points. With the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Cowboys were listed as neutral field underdogs, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 45 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 176 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver/Oakland UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While the Raiders have seen four of their past five games finish above the total, the Broncos have been going the other way. In fact, they've now seen their last seven games stay below the number. They snuck below a high number against the Chiefs back in late October. Since then, all six of their games have finished with 45 or fewer points. The last three of those all produced 34 or less. That said, I believe this number is generously high. The Broncos are going to want to get their ground game going, which will help to chew up the clock. However, the Raiders shut down the Steeler ground game, holding Pitt. to 40 rushing yards and 21 points overall, their last game here. Including the Steeler game, the Raiders have seen the UNDER go 6-3 their last nine as home underdogs. During the same span, the Broncos have seen the UNDER go 7-3 as road favorites. The last four meetings have all produced less than 40 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
12-22-18 | Houston v. Army OVER 59 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Army OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). With Houston's starting QB out for this game, the O/U line dropped considerably. I expect both teams to score plenty of points and feel that the lower O/U line is providing excellent value. To say that these offenses are opposite of each other would be accurate. Army leads the nation in time of possession. Houston is last in the country in that category. That hasn't prevented the Cougars from averaging 46.4 ppg though, fourth best in the country. The Cougars also rank high in numerous other offensive categories. QB Clayton Tune got a game under his belt, throwing for three TDs and has had plenty of time to prepare. On the other side, Army will put up a big number against a porous Houston defense, one which will be missing All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver, which gave up 36 or more points in five of its final six games, more than 50 in two of its last three. Expect some fireworks. | |||||||
12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida UNDER 51.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/USF UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Marshall hasn't scored more than 30 points since managing 31 back in October. The Herd can play quality defense though, as they held three of their last six opponents to fewer than 14 points. Off a blowout loss against V-Tech in a makeup game, I expect the Herd to show us that quality defense tonight. Note that the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight times that they had allowed 37 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at 16-7 when the Herd were off a road loss of 21 or more points. 24-11 when off a loss of 17 or more overall. In other words, off the type of effort they gave vs. V-Tech, the Herd historically bounce back with a much better defensive effort. Facing a USF team which managed only 10 points last time and which has now scored 23 or less in four straight, 17 or less in three of those, will help. The UNDER is 15-4 over the years, when the Bulls find themselves having lost five, or six, of their previous seven. With the UNDER also at 8-2 the last 10 times that the Bulls were off three or more consec. conference losses, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. | |||||||
12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB OVER 42.5 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 33 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UAB/NIU to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). While I respect both defenses, I believe this number will prove to be too low. As NIU fans know, this bowl has historically been high-scoring. The Huskies also represented the MAC in 2014, the inaugural game of the Boca Raton Bowl. That year, they combined with Marshall, the CUSA champ that year, for 85 points. The 2015 game appeared destined to be low-scoring, as there were only 15 points at halftime. However, things opened up in the second half and the final combined score was 49. In 2016, a whopping 82 points were scored. Last season, 53 points were scored, FAU scoring 50 of those themselves. In other words, in the history of this bowl, they've never scored fewer than 49 points. Of course, thats all 'ancient history.' However, these are also more than capable of exceeding tonight's low number. NIU's last game produced 59 points and that was on the heels of a 49-point game. UAB's last game produced 52 combined points; four of the Blazers last five games produced a minimum of 49 combined points. While UAB had trouble finishing above the higher numbers, the OVER is when the Blazers played a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Expect those stats to improve, tonight's final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting. | |||||||
12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/NY UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Off last week's loss to the Colts, expect the Texans to get back to their "defensive roots" this week. Coach O'Brien said: "It's probably not going to be great weather. But our guys are going to be ready to go." His top defenders are all on board and I expect them to be at their best. J.J. Watt had this to say: "Now we have to get back to work." Cornerback Jonathan Joseph commented: "But I'm definitely sure the type of team we are. We responded from 0 and 3, so we're definitely going to respond after this loss here with bigger things at stake going forward." Meanwhile safety Tyrann Mathieu added: "We just gotta do a great job of showing up..." Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Texans were off a divisional home loss. During the same span the UNDE Ris 3-0 after the Texans shad covered in five or six of their last seven. (They're now 5-2 ATS their L7.) Add to that combined perfect 5-0 mark a 9-2 UNDER mark for the Texans in December and you've got a combined 14-2 UNDER angle. On the other side, the UNDER is 5-2 during the same period, when the Jets were off an upset win as an underdog. Expect a low-scoring affair. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |