Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-31-20 | Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys are favored because they are at home and because have the higher ranking. However, I don't believe that they're the better team. Indeed, the Cowboys haven't faced a team with the talent that Texas has. If the Longhorns want any hope of keeping open a chance at the Big 12 title, they absolutely need to win this game. The Longhorns, though loaded with talent, had to learn new systems this year. They've had a chance to do so now though and I really liked the way that they put the early struggles behind them and took care of business against Baylor. Coach Herman had this to say after the Baylor win: "... I'm really proud of our guys for accomplishing a lot of the things that we had set out to accomplish. Heading into the bye week and to go out there and execute them in a game was important for us and our growth and in our development ... and really happy and proud that we got a opportunity to win at home and thank our fans, both here in the stadium and all across the world. And, you know, stayed relatively healthy....we made a lot of strides in that bye week leading up to Baylor. And, you know, I expect to to continue on our trajectory north of improvement and development and hopefully give Oklahoma State our best shot. And if we give them our best shot and we don't beat ourselves much like we did not beat ourselves on Saturday against Baylor, then we'll have a chance to get a big time win..." While the Cowboys eked out a 3-point win last week, they're just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times that they were favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 point range. Speaking of close games, Texas won by six when these teams met last season after the Cowboys and the previous two meetings had both been decided by a field goal. Grab the points. | |||||||
10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +4 | 51-0 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA STATE. While the Chanticleers have gotten off to a great start, I expect them to have their hands full on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers are an opponent which can absolutely trade points with them. While Coastal Carolina averages 38 ppg, Georgia State averages 42. With the exception of a 49-29 blowout win over ECU, all Georgia State's games have been close. I like the way that the Panthers found a way to win (39-37) against Troy last week. The Panthers are going to be absolutely fired up. This is a chance to defeat a ranked opponent. The Panthers have seen the video of Coastal Carolina, which has been going viral, celebrating after last week's win - and they do NOT intend to be another victim. Georgia State brought back a lot of starters from the team which won 31-21, at Coastal Carolina, last season. The previous season, the game here was decided by just three. Expect AT LEAST a cover from the upset-minded home underdog. | |||||||
10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 60 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Hawaii/Wyoming UNDER the total. These teams combined for just 30 points in their last meeting. Their previous game also produced less than 50. Not surprisingly, both those games stayed below the number. On a chilly night in Laramie, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. In winning its opener, Hawaii played stingy defense and ran the ball frequently. Senior defensive back Eugene Ford, who had two INTs, noted: "All the credit goes to my defensive) line. Them boys were getting after that quarterback... all the credit goes to them, but it felt good." Overall, the Hawaii D had four takeaways. On the other side, dealing with the conditions and having missed some practice time, Hawaii figures to keep it fairly. Likewise with Wyoming, which lost its starting QB to a broken leg last week. While the final numbers didn't look good (37-34 OT loss) the Wyoming defense did have eight tackles for a loss (3 sacks) last week. All things considered, I feel this number is generously high and I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Panthers won when these teams played earlier. In what figures to be a close game, I like getting points with revenge-minded Atlanta in Thursday's rematch. While the Falcons may not be winning, they're sure not quitting. They lost their last game by a single point, after beating Minnesota by a 40-23 score the previous week. Five of their six losses came by a TD or less, three of those came by just six combined points. Likewise, Carolina has also been playing close games. The Panthers lost by three last week. That marked their third straight game decided by seven or fewer points. Five of their seven games overall have been decided by a TD or less. While all the talk will be about whether or not McCaffrey will come back, Carolina's problems are on the other side of the ball. The Panthers' defense was young and thin to begin with and has now suffered several key injuries. I absolutely expect the Atlanta offense to take advantage. The Falcons won 29-3 here last season and 24-10 the season before that. I'll take the points but I expect another outright win for the visitors. | |||||||
10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern OVER 50.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Georgia Southern OVER the total. The Eagles are favored in this matchup. However, if they're going to win, they're going to need to score. That's because the Jaguars have scored 30 or more in back-to-back games. Last week, they put up 38 against LA-Monroe. While the offense struggled to score on the road, at ranked Coastal Carolina, the Eagles scored 41 the last time they played at home. They've got a strong rushing attack which should help them move the ball with relative ease against a porous South Alabama run defense. The last meeting between these teams, here at Georgia Southern, had an O/U line of 55 and finished with 61. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 170 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. I successfully played against the Rams last week. However, that wasn't due to lack of respect for the Rams. I just really expected to see a desperate SF team and we did. The Rams are at home now and they didn't have to travel far to get here. Off a loss, they're going to be angry. The Bears, on the other hand, are playing their second straight on the road. Off b2b wins, they may be slightly complacent. Regardless, this is not an easy place to play. The Rams have won both their games here this season and are 15-4 (SU) their last 19 here. Eight of their last nine victories here have come by a minimum of seven points. Having just been embarrassed on National TV, this is an immediate opportunity for them to make amends and show the world that they're better than that. I believe that they are. The Rams are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS their last five, as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect them to make a statement, in improving on those numbers on Monday night. | |||||||
10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 55 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing Seattle/Arizona OVER the total. I won with the 'under' when Arizona last played. Yes, the Cardinal defense played well. However, that was against a Cowboy team playing its first game without Prescott. Now, the Cards face Russell Wilson and the high-flying Seahawks, a team which will score far more points against them than Dallas did. The Seahawks managed "only" 27 points last game. It was the first time that they hadn't cracked the 30 mark. They average a whopping 33.8 ppg, the #1 mark in the NFL. However, the 27 ppg which the Hawks allow ranks them just 19th. While the Arizona defense is good, the New England defense is considered pretty good, too. Yet, Seattle put 35 up against the Pats. Unable to stop Wilson and co, the Cards will need Murray and the offense to make things happen, in order to keep pace. Given that Arizona scored 38 last week and the fact that Seattle has allowed a minimum of 23 in every game, I believe that'll happen. Expect a high-scoring affair. | |||||||
10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots -2 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. I backed the 49'ers in their win last week, vs. LA. They played an inspired game and knocked off a strong Rams team. Still, lets not forget that their previous game resulted in a 43-17 loss against Miami. While the 49'ers have some key pieces back, this is still a team which is decimated by injuries. Traveling across the country to take on a hostile Patriots team, those injuries will catch up with them. The Pats weren't able to practice properly due to Covid-related issues and that was clearly one of the factors that led to their loss against Denver. Their previous game had resulted in a loss to KC. So, off b2b losses, don't expect them to show their banged-up guests any sympathy. Note that New England is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, off b2b losses. Even with this season's setbacks, the Pats are also still 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS their last 10 October games. This is typically been their time of year and they aren't about to lose three in a row. Not with their former QB (Brady) coming off such a huge game and not with another former QB (Jimmy G) coming to town. Indeed, Belichick is going to be extremely motivated to win this one and he'll make sure that his team feels the same way. While I respect the 49ers, they're at the wrong place, at the wrong time. | |||||||
10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 48 | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 122 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Washington UNDER the total. You may have seen the Cowboy offense struggle against Arizona. Everyone expect a bit of a drop-off from Prescott to Dalton, but the Dallas offense dropped off a cliff. The reality is that Dalton isn't as bad as he looked. His team surely didn't help him. However, he's also not going to immediatley play the way that Prescott was, as he was playing at an elite level. With the offense having struggled so badly and the offensive line in shambles, I expect a more conservative approach then normal for this big divisional battle. By that, I mean lots of running plays and very short passes. Washington will be bringing pressure and Dalton was vulnerable to that against Arizona. Remember, the NFC East is still there for the taking. Yes, the Dallas secondary has proven vulnerable. However, Washington ranks 28th in the NFL in terms of passing yards, 30th in passing yards per attempt. In other words, Washington isn't built to take advantage of the Cowboys' weakness. Of course, the Cowboys haven't been too good at stopping the run either. However, that is an area which the Football Team will try and exploit. I expect them to employ a heavy dose of the run. Washington comes off a 20-19 game, the fifth game in a row it scored 20 or fewer points. With both teams employing a heavy dose of the run, expect another relatively low-scoring affair. | |||||||
10-24-20 | UNLV v. San Diego State UNDER 51 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SDSU UNDER the total. This number came up a bit from where it was earlier in the week; I believe we're getting excellent value. UNLV is learning a new offense and is likely going to have trouble scoring. The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: "I'm just going to be a distributor this year ..." The UNDER is 7-2 the last nine meetings between these teams, a perfect 4-0 the past four seasons. Last year's game had an O/U line of 44.5 but finished with a score of 20-17. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. | |||||||
10-24-20 | Maryland v. Northwestern -10.5 | Top | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHWESTERN. Maryland has a recent history of winning its season opener. That changes in a big way on Saturday. Indeed, there's a significant difference in experience between these teams. Northwestern brought most of its team back. Maryland did not. As if things weren't bad enough for the Terps, QB Josh Jackson opted out, along with a handful of others. Jackson was one of six players who chose not to play due to pandemic-related issues. Not good for a team which was already lacking depth and experience. The Wildcats are stingy defensively and their veteran defensive unit is going to be tough to score on. Last year, this unit ranked 25th in the country in total defense. On the other side of the ball, new coordinator Mike Bajakian will have the offense playing with more pace and we should see an improvement on that side of the ball. These teams last met in 2017. The Wildcats won by 16. Expect another double-digit victory for the more experienced Wilcats Saturday. | |||||||
10-24-20 | Tulane v. Central Florida -19.5 | 34-51 | Loss | -103 | 56 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. I won with the Green Wave in their last game, a cover vs. SMU. However, this week, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Knights come off b2b losses, something they aren't used to. They're going to be in an angry mood and they'll be looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. That's going to result in a long day for Tulane's porous defense. Indeed, UCF throws for an average of 439 yards per game, the most passing yards in the entire country. Tulane, meanwhile, allows 307.8 passing yards per game, the 123rd (out of 131) worst mark in the country. UCF won 37-6 the last time that Tulane visited here. While this one figures to have more points, it will result in another one-sided affair. | |||||||
10-24-20 | Nebraska v. Ohio State UNDER 68.5 | 17-52 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Nebraska/OSU UNDER the total. This total has climbed from its opener. I feel that the number is generously high. Yes, the Huskers have a fairly experienced offense. However, that same offense couldn't move the ball against OSU Last year's game between these teams saw the Buckeyes win 48-7. That was at Nebraska, a game which had been highly anticipated as a possible test for the Big Ten champs. Instead, it marked the third time in four meetings that Nebraska scored 14 or fewer points. The Buckeyes pounded the ball on the ground (368 rushing yards) while playing great defense. They'll be looking to employ a similar strategy here. With both teams playing their first game, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. | |||||||
10-24-20 | Florida State v. Louisville -179 | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing LOUISVILLE on the money-line. The Cardinals badly need a victory and I believe that the Seminoles are the right opponent for them to get one against. Yes, Louisville has dropped four straight. However, the last three of those came on the road. The Cardinals are finally back home and they'll be facing an FSU team which has really struggled on the road. In two road games, the Seminoles have allowed 94 points, losing by an average score of 47-18. The Noles are now just 2-10 their last 12 road games. While I do like the Cardinals to cover, I absolutely expect the outright victory. Lousville is 8-2 SU the past 10 times it was favored. During that span, FSU is 3-11 SU as an underdog. That includes an 0-3 SU mark as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. While the Noles won last week, they're just 2-5 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, off a conf. win. The Cards just held ND to 12 points, the same Irish team which dropped 42 on FSU the previous week. Louisville wins. | |||||||
10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida +11 | 42-13 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USF. Tulsa hasn't played in a few weeks. The extra long layoff may bring some rust. The Bulls haven't been winning but they've continued to fight. They gave Temple everything that the Owls could handle last week. While the Bulls ultimately suffered a 39-37 defeat, they showed a lot. South Florida coach Jeff Scott agreed, noting the following: "I was so proud of our guys and how they played at Temple. We came in 1-3, we're on the road and a 13-point underdog and we had put everything into it all week long, and then before you even look up you're behind 10-0 with eight minutes to go in the first quarter. If you pause that and you let that play at a lot of different places, it's a 45-3 game at the end. But our guys continued to play all game long and even after our three turnovers, which really put us in a bad, bad spot, the same offense that put the ball on the ground three times drove it all the way down the field to give us a chance to tie at the end of the game ..." Scott continued with: "The easy thing to do is say 'Here we go again' and all that, but I haven't really seen that from our guys. They're a good group that made some huge strides Saturday..." While Tulsa seems to have UCF's number, the Golden Hurricane are still just 8-18 overall the past few seasons. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a single point. In fact, all three meetings since 2014 were decided by eight or fewer points, USF winning all three. Grab the generous points. | |||||||
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. While they had trouble slowing down Baltimore, I expect the Eagles to have considerably more success in doing so against the offensively challenged Giants. Given the state of the NFC East, this is a big game. The Giants won with defense last week, beating Washington by a 20-17 score. It marked the fifth time, through six games, that they scored 20 or fewer points. In fact, their 101 total points scored is the lowest in the NFC and second lowest (Jets are worse) in the entire NFL, among teams which have played six games. (Broncos have scored 100 in five games.) The last two meetings between these teams, here at Philadelphia, have both stayed below the total. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 45 and finished with 40, a 23-17 win for the Eagles. That one went to OT; just 34 points were scored in regulation. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. | |||||||
10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. I won with the Red Wolves last week. However, Appalachian State is in a much different class than Georgia State. The Mountaineers were shut down due to contact tracing for awhile but they're back and good to go. Playing their first conference game, doing so on National TV and in front of some (2100 tickets allowed) fans, they're going to be absolutely fired up to return to the field. Indeed, they'll be looking to make a statement that just because they haven't been playing, they're not to be forgotten about. While they did manage the win last week, the Red Wolves defense was dismal. The Mountaineers will absolutely put up a big number. While the Red Wolves may be able to trade points for awhile, ultimately they won't be able to keep up. Note that the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) when off a bye. Also, note that App. State won last year's game 35-9 and that was at Arkansas State. Expect the superior team to pull away for a double-digit win. | |||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on DALLAS. Prescott was playing at a very high level. His injury does hurt the Cowboys. That said, the Cowboy offense will still be good with Dalton running the show. The veteran is very capable and has much to work with. Remember, if Prescott was playing, the Cowboys would have been laying points. So, the injury has been worked into the line. Yes, the Murray/Hopkins combo will present some problems. However, I'm of the opinion that the Dallas defense is a bit better than most would have you believe. I like the way that the Cowboys took care of business against the Giants last game and I expect them to dig deep and find a way to earn another "W" tonight. | |||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 54 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 179 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Dallas UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Cowboy games have flown over the total. However, Dallas is now without its starting QB and its facing an Arizona team which has been seeing its games stay below the number. Yes, the Cardinals have some dangerous offensive weapons. However, Arizona has still seen all five of its games produce 52 or fewer combined points, the UNDER going 4-0-1. While I respect Dalton, Prescott was playing at a very high level. Yes, the Cowboy offense will still be good. But, a small step back would only be natural. That means that the Cowboys will need to be better defensively. I believe that they can be. Also, a tough Arizona secondary should lead Dallas to run the ball more regularly. It all adds up to this one proving lower-scoring than the shootout which many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO for the first half. Both these teams started the season with perfect 4-0 records. Both stumbled in Week 5. Most have grown so accustomed to seeing the Chiefs win that they think that they can't possibly lose twice in a row. They can, particularly against a dangerous and highly motivated Buffalo team. The perception that the Chiefs can't possibly lose two in a row has helped create plenty of value, particularly in my opinion, for the first half. This is a huge game for the Bills. They're going to be extremely fired up and I expect them to come out flying. Grab the points for the first half and don't be surprised when Buffalo takes a lead into the locker room. | |||||||
10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +148 | 16-24 | Win | 148 | 155 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing SF on the ML. While they've certainly had to deal with their share of adversity, I expect the defending NFC Champs to be at their best on Sunday night. While it was an otherwise ugly effort, the 49ers got their running game going in last week's loss to Miami. Averaging 6.9 yards per carry, the 49ers racked up 131 yards on the ground. The return of Mostert was key. That'll serve them well against a Rams team which, prior to the Washington game, has had serious issues stopping the run. The 49ers should have the edge in the kicking department, which could be key in what figures to be a close one. Rookie Sloman has struggled and his confidence appears shaken. Remember, the 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year. They're gradually getting their pieces back together. With a number of difficult games on deck, they know they need to bounce back here. While they're back in California, its worth noting that the Rams are playing their fourth road game in the past five weeks. In the previous instance, when they were playing the second of b2b road games, they lost. I say the 49ers bounce back | |||||||
10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 148 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on TAMPA. I successfully played against the Bucs in their last game, a loss at Chicago. However, I like how this one sets up much better. Last game, the Bucs were playing on the road, on a short week. They were also laying more than a field goal. This game sets up much differently. This time, the Bucs are getting points. This time, they're at home. This time, they're playing with extra rest. I also like that Brady was embarrassed in losing. He's going to be determined to bounce back with a big effort and I expect him to do exactly that. (Obviously, both QBs want to beat the other. They're 1-1 in h2h matchups, each winning on his homefield.) Both teams want it, too. Still, this game arguably means more to Brady, Arians and the Bucs. Off their only previous loss, the Bucs responded with a double-digit win. I expect them to bounce back once again, handing the Pack their first loss of the season. | |||||||
10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. All the talk is and will be about Saban. I'm more interested in the game being played on the field. We've come to know Alabama as an elite defensive team, over the years. The Tide are more known for their offense these days though, as they've got some elite players on that side of the ball. Georgia, on the other hand, has one of the best defenses in the entire country. Alabama still has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Tide defense is going to be very motivated, too. Both to show that Georgia isn't the only elite defense in this game and to show that they're much better than we saw last week. The Alabama offense hasn't faced a defense like this one though. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said this of his defense: "The atmosphere that's been credited on defense here is we're not letting them score." Last week, they limited Tennessee to less than one yard (-1) on the ground and 0 points, in the second half. The Bulldogs will be doing everything they can to chew up the clock when they're on offense. The last time that these teams met in October, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 48. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-17-20 | Marshall v. Louisiana Tech +14 | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA TECH. The Herd have gotten off to a great start. While they're clearly playing well, this is a very big number and I don't believe that they're good enough to be laying this many points here. Note that the Herd, who are playing their second straight road game, are just 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they were favored. Entering the season, some might of thought this would be a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. However, this is a well-coached team which is always competitive. Coming into this season, LA Tech has recorded six consecutive winning records and has earned a bowl trip each year in that span. This season, the Bulldogs are already 3-1 including a win at Southern Miss. The lone loss came at BYU. Nobody is talking about rebuilding any more. I say this one proves close. Grab the points. | |||||||
10-17-20 | Texas A&M -195 v. Mississippi State | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing TEXAS A&M on the money-line. The Aggies upset Florida last week, scoring 41 points in the process. Mississippi State, on the other hand, managed only two points, in losing agianst Kentucky. The previous week, listed as -16.5 point favorites, the Bulldogs managed only 14 points, losing outright. Why the moneyline? Though I also expect them to cover, when the Aggies are favored, they win. Period. They won (but didn't cover) in this season's only previous time as a favorite. They've been listed as favorites 17 times in recent seasons and they won 16 of those games. This price could easily be higher and they'll improve on those stats this afternoon. | |||||||
10-17-20 | Virginia -2.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. There are some early similarities between the Demon Deacons and the Cavs. Both have 1-2 SU records. Both are 2-1 ATS. These teams already have a couple of common opponents. Both have played Clemson. Both have played NC State. Each team went 0-2 in those games. Virginia's win was arugably more impressive though. The Cavs hammered Duke. Wake Forest's victory, though lopsided, was against lowly Campbell. (The Deacons were -34.5 point favorites.) So, the Deacons have yet to defeat a "real" team. While the Cavs may be without QB Brennan Armstrong, backup Lindell Stone completed 30 passes and threw three TDs last week. Coach Bronco Mendenhall noted: "Lindell did not have many practice reps at all with our offense. He was really working with our defense and helping us in that regard, and just that he came in and was effective and moved the football team, I was encouraged by that." Regardless of who is behind center, he'll be working behind an experienced offensive line and I expect the Cavs to get off to a faster start, something Mendenhall has been emphasizing. Mendehall also has an experienced and capable defense. Look for his team to emerge victorious, covering the small number along the way. | |||||||
10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee UNDER 47.5 | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Kentucky/Tennessee UNDER the total. Entering the season, some ranked Kentucky's defense as third best in the SEC. Considering the number of strong defenses in the conference, that was saying something. While the experienced defense took a couple of weeks to get going, the Wildcats come off an outstanding defensive effort. In fact, they held Mississippi State to just two points. The Bulldogs only points came on a safety. Pretty good given that the Bulldogs entered that game with the SEC's top passing attack (468 yards per game) and the No. 2 offense (516.0). On the other side of the ball, despite the score, the Kentucky offense was pretty dismal. In fact, Kentucky managed a mere 157 yards of offense. While they struggled at Georgia, the Vols limited Missouri to a mere 12 points in their lone home game. Last year's meeting produced 30 combined points. The year before saw just 31 points scored. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. | |||||||
10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston UNDER 62.5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Houston UNDER the total. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe this number will prove to be too high. While the BYU Cougars have been putting up a lot of points, they've also been very stingy defensively. In fact, they're only allowing an average of 11 points per game. None of their opponents have scored more than 20. The Cougars have only played one game. Though they did give up a lot of points, they actually only allowed 211 total yards. Indeed, Tulane scored two early defensive TD's which changed the outcome of the game and made Houston's points allowed look worse. The last meeting between these schools had an O/U line of 62.5 but finished with 57. I believe both defenses are better than they're being given credit for and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +7 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULANE. I like how this one sets up for the Green Wave. Note that Tulane is 8-4 ATS its last 12 home lined games. Also, off its loss against Houston, note that the Green Wave are 6-3 ATS their last nine, when off a conference loss. SMU is just 2-5 ATS the past seven times it was a road favorite. Also, off their 30-27 win against Memphis, note that the Mustangs are just 2-8 ATS their last 10, when off a conference victory. Speaking of 3-point games, three of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by four point or less. Also, Tulane has already seen two of its games, including its lone home game, decided by just a field goal. Expect another close one and grab the points. | |||||||
10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -149 | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE on the money-line. Both the pointspread and the money-line have dropped since they came out. I like the value that the reduced money-line price offers. The home team has enjoyed success in this series of late. Last October, the Panthers won 52-38 on their home field. The previous October, it was the Red Wolves winning 51-35 here at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. This will mark the Panthers' first road game of the season. So, they've had to experience some of the new travel challenges for the first time. Remember, this is a team which is just 2-10 SU in road lined games the past couple of years. During the same span, Arkansas State was 10-3 SU in home games. While both teams have shown that they can put points on the board, I feel that the Red Wolves' QB Bonner will have the bigger day. His favorite target, Jonathan Adams Jr. already has five TD catches (26 receptions, 342 yards) and ranks among the most dangerous in the conference. The Red Wolves started the season with three straight on the road. Playing at Memphis and Kansas State right out of the gate was tough but they managed to go 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) in those games, winning outright at K-State. They had to deal with some cancelled games after that and a reduced roster for the loss at Coastal Carolina. However, they got most back for last week's home opener, a 50-27 thrashing of Central Arkansas. Expect homefield to again prove significant. | |||||||
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -6.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -124 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UL-LAFAYETTE. This game got postponed and these teams had agreed to play in Conway, SC, if the game couldn't be played here at Cajun Field, due to damage caused by Hurricane Delta. They're finally good to go here though, which I expect to benefit the now #21 ranked Ragin' Cajuns. They'll 5000+ fans and this will be the first game at this stadium in which they'll be selling alchohol. While both teams are 3-0, the Cajuns' record included a 31-14 win at Iowa State, a far more impressive feat than anything accomplished by the Chanticleers. Last year's game wasn't even close. The Cajuns won 48-7. Levi Lewis, who became the first Cajun to throw for more than 3000 yards last season, threw three TD passes and ran one in for another. Overall, he'd finish the seaon with 26 TD's against just four INTs, completing more than 64% of his passes. He's off to another great start this season, too. While Lewis isn't a big QB, expect him to have another big game, en route to a win and cover. | |||||||
10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Titans are getting points here, in part due to the fact that they're down some players and practice time, having been dealing with being shutdown from the virus. Obviously, that's not ideal. That said, I believe that the Titans to be able to overcome it and I expect them to be good to go. Buffalo has gotten off to a great start but I believe that this will prove to be a tough spot. The Bills started the season with b2b divisional games. Next, they played a game against the Rams, when both teams were undefeated at the time. Last time out, they played in the new stadium, at Vegas. Next up, they host the world champion Chiefs, on Monday night. If that's not a reason to "look ahead," there isn't one. Having played all those "big" games and with the champs on deck, even though the Titans are 3-0 themselves, I believe it's going to be a little hard for the Bills to "get up" for a Tuesday game, at Tennessee. Note that the Bills are dealing with some key injuries themselves and that they're giving up 25 ppg. The Titans are going to be extremely fired up to get back on the field, as this is absolutely a "big game" for them. Note that they're 8-4 ATS their last 12, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. Tennessee safety Byard had this to say: "At the end of the day, we’re not going to make any excuses man. We're going to come in here and focus on what we need to focus on, and that's winning the ballgame." I expect that to be the case and I'm grabbing the points. | |||||||
10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Saints have a lot going for them, in my opinion. In addition to being very tough to beat at home, they're arguably better on both sides of the ball. Sean Payton gives them an edge in the coaching department. They're still very much alive in the playoff race. The Chargers are not. Of course, there's also a little score to settle. This will likely be the last time that Brees gets to face the Chargers. It may seem like he's been a Saint forever but it was the Chargers who drafted him and then essentially let him go. Brees recently noted: "When I was drafted by the Chargers back in ’01, it was my hope, my plan, to be the franchise quarterback there for my whole career." Note that Brees and the Saints are a perfect 3-0 against the Chargers. While he won't have Thomas to throw to, I say that Brees continues to haunt his old team one final time, the Saints picking up the cover along the way. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 57 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Seattle UNDER the total for the 1st Half. With all due respect to the Seattle offense, I feel that this number is a little high. While the Vikings have struggled defensively, they were better on that side of the ball last game. With the league's leading rusher (Cook) heading their offense, they'll be doing everything they can to sustain long drives and keep Wilson and the Seahawks offense on the sidelines. Yes, these teams did play a high-scoring game (37-30) against each other last December. However, a closer look shows that "only" 27 of those points came in the first half, 40 in the second. They'd also played a few times in recent previous seasons and those games had final scores of 21-7, 10-9 and 38-7. Look for this one to start a little more slowly than many will be expecting, the final combined halftime score staying beneath the generous number. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons -130 | 23-16 | Loss | -130 | 102 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. (ML) I believe that a date with Carolina will be just what the doctor ordered for the desperate winless Falcons. Off b2b wins, the Panthers have proven that they aren't to be taken lightly. Even without McCaffrey. Still, they represent the weakest team which the Falcons have faced, a significant step down in class. Previous games have come against the Bears, who were undefeated at the time, the Seahawks and Packers, who are still undefeated and the Cowboys. Thats a very tough first four games. Yet, the Falcons easily could have been 3-1, or at least 2-2. True, the Falcons are off a Monday night game. However, I like that they're at home and they've fared well (1-0 SU/ATS last couple of years and 15-10 SU / 16-7-2 ATS L25) when off a Monday night game. This is a team they can handle and they will. Expect them to find a way to pick up that elusive first "W." | |||||||
10-11-20 | Raiders +13 v. Chiefs | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LAS VEGAS. Obviously, the Chiefs are really good. They've had their way with the Raiders and the rest of the AFC West, too. That said, I like how this one sets up for the Raiders. The Raiders know that the Chiefs are 4-0. The other teams in the division are both 1-3. Sitting at 2-2 themselves, the Raiders know that they need a win here, or the Chiefs are going to leave them in their dust. While the Chargers and Broncos have only scored 82 and 83 points, respectively, the Raiders have scored 111. Thats not far at all behind Kansas City's 117. Indeed, the Raiders are one of the few teams in the league which may be able to trade points with the champs. They've scored at least 20 in every game, averaging 27.8. The Chiefs are off b2b Monday Night games and they've got a Thursday game on deck. Grab the generous points and don't be surprised when they have their hands full against what is going to be a very determined Raider team. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 29-38 | Loss | -118 | 123 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Eagles earned a hard-fought win at SF, their first victory of the season. While the Steelers represent a different type of challenge, monkey off their back, I expect the Eagles to carry the positive momentum forward. Just like that, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. Really, they're a better team than their record indicates. Due to that record, the Eagles find themselves as a similar sized underdog as last week, a role they thrived in. Its also a lot of points to ask the Steelers to win by. Consider that Philadelphia's last two games have been decided by a combined five points and that Pittsburgh's last two games were both decided by seven points or less. The Steelers have been nothing special (16-22 ATS) over the years, when coming off a bye. While they haven't met since 2016, the Eagles have won two of the last three meetings between these instate rivals and the lone loss (16-14 in 2012) was by just two points. Grab the points and expect another close one. | |||||||
10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14.5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 123 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers have won by "only" 24, 49 and 18 points. Thats led to a poor start at the betting window and some to question how good this year's team is. I expect a visit from Miami to "get them going." The Canes are their toughest test yet, which is why the Tigers aren't favored by quite as much as they were in previous games. Note that they're 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 point range. During that span, they've gone 6-1 ATS in October, 14-4 ATS against winning teams and 15-5 ATS in conference play overall. The Canes are off a bye but that hasn't too helpful in recent seasons. They're 0-5 SU/ATS the past five times that they were in that situation. During that span, Miami was 4-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. While the Canes have indeed looked good, Clemson is the first winning team which Miami has faced this season. While Miami does have some great athletes, Clemson is still better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Tigers to silence their critics while providing Miami with a rude reality check. | |||||||
10-10-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International OVER 56.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MTSU/FIU OVER the total. Both teams are coming in hungry for their first win. Both believe that they can get it and both are going to keep fighting the entire way. Last season's game had an O/U line of 57.5 and saw 67 points scored. The Blue Raiders scored 50 of those. Including that result, since 2014, five of six meetings in the series have finished above the total. Middle Tennessee State QB Asher O'hara has enjoyed success against the Panthers in the past, particularly burning them with his legs. Two years ago, he came in to replace an injured Brett Stockstill. He rushed for 85 yards and a TD. Then, in last season's romp, he rushed for 159 yards and two TDs. He shold be poised for another fairly big game against an FIU team which allowed 36 points and more than 500 yards in its lone game. Note that the Liberty QB did whatever he wanted to them, both through the air and on the ground. Yet, the Panthers are favored for a reason. They scored 34 in their lone game and are coming in hungry to avenge last year's embarrassing loss. Expect both teams to move the ball and score plenty of points in this one, the final combined score finishing above the total for the sixth time in the past seven seasons. | |||||||
10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia UNDER 63.5 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC State/UVA UNDER the total. I believe that this number is generously high. True, the Wolfpack have been involved in some shootouts, which has led to this high number. A game against Virginia figures to be different; I expect a heavy dose of the run from the Cavs, who are averaging a healthy 167.5 yards on the ground, to help keep the clock moving. These teams have met five times since 2006, most recently in 2018. Those five games had combined scores of 56, 39, 42, 53 and 21. None of the O/U lines were anywhere close to as high as this one. The Cavs saw last week's game finish with 64 points. However, that was against a powerful Clemson team which put up 41. The Wolfpack saw last week's game finish over the total. However, that was with a much lower O/U line. That one still finished with less than 60 points and would have fallen below this higher number. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. | |||||||
10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both teams will be anxious to get back on track here. The Cardinals are more talented on both sides of the ball; I expect them to be the team which does so. In addition to giving up fewer points per game, the Cardinals average 29.7 ppg on offense, while GT averages just 19.3. After back-to-back games in the underdog role, Louisville finds itself favored again. The only previous time that the Cardinals were favored, they took care of business agianst Western Kentucky, a 35-21 win on 9/12. Meanwhile, this isn't a good look for the Yellow-Jackets. They're 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, most recently losing by 28 (49-21 on 9/19) in that role earlier this season. Before slowing down at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had racked up more than 500 yards against Miami. I expect them to have a big day against this defense and don't feel that the Jackets will be able to keep up. | |||||||
10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +6 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I succesfully played against the Bears on Sunday, I like their chances of bouncing back Thursday night. Last week, the Bears were dealing with a Colts defense which ranks #1 in the league in points allowed and #1 in the league in terms of yards allowed. The Bucs haven't been as stingy. While the Colts allow 14 ppg, the Bucs allow 23. The Bears, themselves, allow just 20.3. I like that the Bears are playing at home for the second straight week. Even if the distance isn't that great, traveling while playing on a short week, in 2020, is less than ideal. Prior to Sunday's loss, the Bears had seen all three of their games decided by less than five points. Don't be surprised when this one also comes down to the wire, the Bears with an excellent shot at the outright win. | |||||||
10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 60 | 31-49 | Loss | -114 | 30 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Tulane UNDER the total. Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to last year's game: "The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening..." Tulane ended up rallying for a 38-31 win. That was enough to send that game over the posted total. This year, we're working with a slightly higher O/U number but I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Yes, Tulane has shown an ability to score. The Green Wave have a couple of future NFL players on defense though and figure to be improved on that side of the ball. Likewise for the Cougars. Dana Holgorsen brought in transfers on defense that will make them better on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, having not played a real game yet, the Cougar offense could be a little rusty out of the gate. Look for it to all add up to a much lower-scoring game than we saw last season. | |||||||
10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/GB UNDER the total. With all due respect to Rodgers and co, I believe this number is simply too high. Yes, GB has put up some very big numbers. Yes, the Falcons have been on the wrong side of some crazy comebacks, which has led to some high scores. Thats not going to keep happening though; they may never have a lead to blow in this one in the first place. Either way, those high scores and the high scores in the league in general, have worked in our favor, driving this O/U line up higher than it would have been, if these teams had met a few weeks ago. (The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 54.) Obviously, the Packer offense has been functioning at a high level. GB is going to be anxious to get the defense performing better though and I believe that's going to be a priority this week. Kingsley Keke has emerged in his absence but the Pack hope to get Kenny Clark back this week and he's huge for their defense. Either way, I see the Packers defense improving this week. Of course, the Falcons will be doing everything in their power to keep Rodgers and co. on the sidelines. They'll get some points. Just not enough to finish above this generously high number. Go Under. | |||||||
10-05-20 | Patriots +11.5 v. Chiefs | 10-26 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. With Cam Newton out, we're getting a handful of extra points with the Pats. While I obviously respect the champs, I feel thats providing us with excellent value on the visitors. Hoyer is expected to go instead of Newton. While the veteran can't do all the things that Newton can do, he arguably knows the Patriots system better than Newton does; he served as Brady's backup for a number of years, in separate stints. While I'm aware his recent record as a starter isn't pretty, Belichick wouldn't have kept him around if he wasn't still capable. The Pats are playing well; they're 2-1 with the lone loss coming by five, at Seattle. They haven't lost a game by more than seven points since last November. Speaking of close games, the last three meetings between these teams have all been decided by seven or less. Don't be surprised when this one also proves closer than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Eagles +7 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 128 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. As you may have heard, the 49ers have been hit extremely hard by injuries. They were able to overcome those injury issues against the Giants and Jets. However, now they're facing a winless and desperate Eagle team, one which comes in badly in need of a victory. Yes, Philadelphia is also dealing with some injuries. However, those injuries aren't as bad or as numerous as SF's injuries. Keep in mind that the 49ers played without 10 starters last week. While they may have other areas of concern, the Eagles' defensive line is excellent. They were all over Burrow (8 sacks, 18 QB hits) last week and will be all over the QB again here. On the other side of the ball, turnovers have hurt. I expect them to clean that up here. The 49ers were fortunate to face the two NY teams when they did. Expect them to have their hands full Sunday night. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Colts -155 v. Bears | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing INDIANAPOLIS on the ML. A lot of people are excited about Foles starting for the Bears. He may indeed prove to be an upgrade over Trubisky, however the Colts still figure to have the advantage in this one. In case you haven't been paying attention, the Colts quietly boast the best defense in the league through three games. They've been tough against both the run and the pass and are allowing only 15 ppg and a mere 225.3 ypg. Both rank #1 in the league. While I do also like the Colts to cover the spread, its worth noting that every Chicago game has been close, which has led me to the ML. The Colts are 32-9 SU over the years, when listed as road favorites of three or less. I expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Washington UNDER the total. After getting lit up by Mahomes and the defending champs, the Ravens are going to be anxious to get back to playing some stingy defense. Remember, they held their first two opponents to a total of just 22 points. Of course, Washington doesn't have the type of offense that KC does and should be much easier to slow down. On the other side, Washington will be happy to return home; Washington allowed only 17 points in its only home game. While facing the Ravens can be scary for a defense, note that Jackson was just 15 for 28 for 97 yards and was sacked four times last week. These teams combined for just 26 points (16-10 in 2016) the last time they met. With both defenses looking to get healthy and both offenses mixing in a healthy dose of the run, I say this "instate rivalry" also proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. | |||||||
10-03-20 | Virginia v. Clemson -28 | 23-41 | Loss | -115 | 133 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. This is obviously a mismatch. While the line may appear steep, I feel that it could easily be even higher. Keep in mind that the Tigers handed the Cavs a 62-17 loss in the ACC Championship Game last season.The Tigers had last week off. That works in their favor as they had a number of bumps and bruises and the extra time should allow a number of players time to get healthy. Also, note that Clemson is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS its last five, when coming off a bye. While the Tigers may have failed to cover vs. Wake Forest, they're still a dominant 15-4 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Clemson had more than 600 yards of offense in the ACC Championship Game last season, Virginia had less than 400. Lawrence threw for more than 300 yards and four TDs. Etienne ran for 114 yards and a score. Expect another big day for the offense with the Cavs, ulimately, being unable to keep up. | |||||||
10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 71 | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tulsa/UCF UNDER the total. The Knights come in determined to get some payback from last season's 34-31 loss. While they'll probably get their revenge, I feel that it'll come in the form of an improved defensive effort. Last season, the Golden Hurricane dropped 34 points on them. I don't expect the Knights to allow that to happen again. Consider that Tulsa has only been able to play one game and that it managed only seven points, while allowing just 16, in that one. As for the Knights, yes, they do indeed have a potent offense. They've scored 49 and 51 in their two games. I believe that Tulsa's defense is somewhat better than the two they have faced though. The Hurricane moved to a 3-3-5 scheme a couple of years ago and are much better defensively since doing so. Last season, they allowed less than 400 yards per game for the first time since 2012. This year's defense didn't return a ton of 'starters' but did return a lot of players with experience. As defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie pointed out: "I don’t know that we're quite as green as what on paper it would look like. We've got a lot of guys who got not just a little bit of playing time, but a great deal of experience on the football field." Look for the Tulsa defense to slow down the Knights just enough to keep the combined final score beneath the generously high number. | |||||||
10-03-20 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State -121 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on K-STATE. (ML) This line came down from its opener and I believe we're now getting very fair value with the Wildcats. Importantly, I like how this game sets up for them. K-State comes off an improbable win vs. the Sooners. Many will expect a letdown, off that upset. However, thats exactly the type of a win that a college team can build positive momentum from. As K-State coach Clieman commented: "It has to be sustained. 'We need to do this for the long haul; that's the challenge we made to our guyss .... " The opposite is true of the Red Raiders. While they did earn a nice 'cover' for their backers last week, they also lost a heart-breaker to rival Texas, the type of loss which can have a deflating effect on a college team. Indeed, they were up 15 in the closing minutes but lost in OT. I say K-State carries the positive momentum into this afternoon's game and comes away with the "W." | |||||||
10-03-20 | TCU v. Texas -13 | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 114 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. After rallying to beat the Red Raiders last week, scoring 63 points in the process, the Longhorns bring both momentum and confidence into Saturday's showdown with TCU. The Longhorns were down 56-41 late in the fourth last week. Texas coach Tom Herman said: 'Our quarterback looked at me and said, `They left us too much time. We're going to tie this thing up and win in overtime,'' ''And I believed him.'' Off that comeback, Texas believes it can do anything and with Oklahoma having lost last week, the Longhorns are thinking big. Indeed, this team is loaded. This is a game that the Longhorns have had circled. The Frogs beat them by 10 (at TCU) last season and have had their way with the Longhorns in recent years. Its time for some payback. Note that Texas won by 15 the last time that it was the home team in this rivalry. I expect an even bigger margin of victory here. Texas rolls. | |||||||
10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU -23.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU. This figures to be a one-sided blowout. The Cougars have crushed both opponents which they have faced. They beat Navy 55-3 and they beat Troy 48-7. They should be able to do the same to an LA Tech team which is essentially in rebuilding mode on defense. Yes, the Bulldogs are 2-0. However, they've given up 30 or more points in both games. Last game, Houston Baptist scored 38 against them. Indeed, BYU will have no trouble scoring. This hasn't been a kind role for the Bulldogs over the years; they're 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU) the past 20 times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31.5 point range. I say the Cougars, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against CUSA opponents, put up a big number with the overmatched Bulldogs being unable to keep up. | |||||||
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets +3 | 37-28 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY. After the last two primetime games featured Brees/Rodgers and Jackson/Mahomes, Thursday features a pair of winless teams in the Broncos and Jets. Obviously, both will be hungry for their first win. While the Jets have indeed been pretty bad, I feel that they're catching the Broncos at the right time. As Denver coach Vic Fangio noted: ''We have sustained a lot of injuries, there's no denying that ..." The short week doesn't figure to help a banged-up Bronco team which didn't even announcing its starting QB until Tuesday. (*Rypien eneded up getting named the starter, as expected.) Feeling the heat from their poor start, more so than their guests, Gase and the Jets are going to be desperate. Look for the injuries to take a toll on Denver, as the Jets dig deep and find a way to come away with the "W." | |||||||
09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints UNDER 53 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/NO UNDER the total. Brees and Rodgers get all the headlines and the presence of the two future Hall-Of-Famers has helped lead to a very high O/U number, second highest on the Sunday board. However, I'm not anticpating the type of shootout envisioned by many. Brees is without his top receiving weapon in Thomas. It appears that Rodgers may also be without his top receiver; Adams is doubtful as of this writing. He wasn't able to practice this week, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reporting that Adams ' chances to suit up against the Saints "doesn't look great." Either way, the Saints defense is very likely better than either of the previous two defenses GB has faced and that unit will be looking to show its better than we saw against the Raiders. Both teams figure to run the ball fairly frequently, possibly more than ever due to the absence of Thomas and hopefully Adams. Look for that to help chew up the clock, keeping the final combined score beneath the generously high total. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -155 | 37-30 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing NEW ORLEANS on the ML. NFL fans are fickle. At the beginning of last week's game, everyone was referring to Brees as one of the greatest of all-time and saying that he was still at the top of his game. By the end of the night, they were calling him old and past his prime. Yes, he's getting up in years but Brees, like Rodgers, is indeed among the best of all-time. I still believe that he's got plenty of great games ahead of him. A visit from Rodgers figures to be just what the doctor ordered to "get him going." The Packers got a huge game from Jones last week. I'd still prefer Kamara though. Its on the other side of the ball where I believe that the Saints really have the advantage though. Indeed, this Saints defense is loaded with talent, arguably more so than the Green Bay defense. Throw in the fact that the game is at New Orleans and that I believe Payton to be the superior coach and I say the Saints finish on top. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles -5 | Top | 23-23 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both teams are 0-2. Both will be hungry for a win. I expect the Eagles to be a little more desperate though and I believe that they bring more to the table. Obviously, Burrow and the Bengals want their first win. Expectations are pretty low in Cincinnati though. Nobody will be too upset if it takes a couple of years for Burrow and the new look team to start winning. Thats not the case for the Eagles though; this is a team which expects to win now. They're going to come in angry and I expect Burrow and co. to suffer the consequences. While they're highly motivated, the Eagles aren't pushing the panic button. Wentz had this to say: "We're not panicking. The sky is not falling. We have the potential with the pieces we have on this offense to be elite, to be great and we're excited to come out (next week) and start showing it.'' The Eagles are a resilient team, having dealt with a lot in recent seasons. Sanders noted: "...it's a long season and we're going to have opportunities. It takes resiliency and that's the type of team we have.'' Expect the resilient Eagles to bounce back, securing their first win and picking up the cover along the way. | |||||||
09-26-20 | UTEP v. UL-Monroe -9 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win. | |||||||
09-26-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -6.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. While there are still some questions about the OSU QB (Gundy noted this Monday: “We’ve got three guys available and we’ll have to make that decision based on practice reps.”) situation, there's no question about their ground game. Expect Chuba Howard (2093 yards, 21 TDs LY) to do his thing. Meanwhile, the Cowboy defense also comes in on a high. Last time out, they allowed just 278 yards on 59 plays and limited Tulsa to 0-for-12 on third down conversions. As Gundy mentioned: "The defense was fabulous. Zero-for-12 on third down and one-for-four on fourth down is really the story of the game.” Expect that defense to give the WVU offense trouble on Saturday afternoon. Remember, WVU had the worst offense in the Big-12 last year. While they failed to cover in the win over Tulsa, Gundy's Cowboy's typically thrive in September. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win. | |||||||
09-26-20 | Georgia Tech v. Syracuse OVER 52.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 113 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on G-Tech/Syracuse OVER the total. The Yellow Jackets gave up 49 points themselves last week, that game hitting the 70 mark. Syracuse, obviously, isn't UCF. However, I still think that this number will prove to be too low. The reality is that these are probably the two worst tams in the conference. Or, at least, two of the worst. When facing stiffer competition, they're both likely to have trouble scoring at times. However, a game against a fellow "lightweight" provides an opportunity for both offenses to get healthy. These teams have only played twice since 2004. In both cases, G-Tech scored more than 50 points. I say they combine for more than 50 on Saturday afternoon, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. | |||||||
09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. | |||||||
09-24-20 | UAB -6 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 81 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers lost QB Tyler Johnston to injury. That's not ideal. However, its been factored into the line and we're getting UAB at a bit better price as a result. Importantly, backup Bryson Lucero has played in both games and with the Blazers off last weekend, he's had plenty of time to prepare for the starting role. I believe that the Blazers, who started the season a 10-point win before losing at Miami, have a talent advantage in this one. Keep in mind that this is an extremely experienced UAB team, one which feels capable of winning the rest of its games. Indeed, UAB returned 18 starters. The Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in recent seasons when laying points and they're 4-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Look for the Blazers, who rarely lose in their home state, to improve on those stats, delivering a statement win over their "instate rival." |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |