Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-21-23 | Braves -122 v. Brewers | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Atlanta is 52-22 (70.3%) when favored by -120 or more this season. - Braves offense has the best slugging percentage (.495) and ranks first in home runs hit (182) in all of MLB. They have a collective .269 batting average, and are fourth in the league with 875 total hits and second in MLB play scoring 537 runs. - Braves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI) | |||||||
07-20-23 | Padres -112 v. Blue Jays | 0-4 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Bassitt has against the Padres, going 0-2 in three starts against them. - Padres have won seven of their last 11 games. - Snell has a 2.80 ERA and 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .198 to opposing hitters. - Blue Jays have lost four of their last seven home games. | |||||||
07-20-23 | Giants v. Reds -102 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Alex Cobb has a 2.82 ERA overall for SF but over 4.00 away and in day games. - Reds rookie lefty Andrew Abbott has an ERA near 2.00 at home and in day games. - Abbott has had three appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs. - The Reds are 6-2 in Andrew Abbott's starts with both losses coming to the Brewers. | |||||||
07-19-23 | Padres v. Blue Jays -113 | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Diego Padres remain an inconsistent squad. They were looking good before the break but lost the last three games in Philly this past weekend. The Blue Jays are hot, winning eight out of their last ten games including a sweep of the Diamondbacks. Furthermore, Padres’ starter Yu Darvish has not been a good pitcher to back. The veteran has squandered 18 runs in his last 27.1 innings pitched. Darvish especially has issues on the road where he has an ugly 5.52 ERA. Blue Jays’ starter Jose Berrios is delivering, allowing just one run in his 12.1 innings pitched on the month. The Jays have won in eight of his last ten starts. | |||||||
07-19-23 | Guardians -130 v. Pirates | 5-7 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates, who are going with a lineup heavy with rookies as the season has gone sideways, have lost five games in a row and nine of their past 10. Pittsburgh batters have managed a total of nine hits in the first two games against Cleveland while striking out 23 times. In the series finale, Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.65 ERA) is scheduled to start opposite Pittsburgh left-hander Rich Hill (7-9, 4.76). Civale has been brilliant in three July starts with a 1.50 ERA and two walks and 10 hits allowed over 18 innings. Hill has lost four of his past five decisions. The 43-year-old lefty owns a 6.43 ERA over his last four starts, with 26 hits and 10 walks yielded in 21 innings. Pittsburgh is 2-12 this month and has scored an MLB-low 235 runs since April 30. | |||||||
07-18-23 | Rays v. Rangers -130 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have won four of their last six games and three of their last four home games and have scored 20 runs in their last three home games. They’ve crushed right-handed pitching this season and Bradley has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 16 runs in his last three starts. He gave up five runs in his lone start against the Rangers last month and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Rays have won three of their last four games, but they’ve lost three of their last five road games. Even though they’ve done a good job batting against right-handers this season, they will struggle offensively in this game because Eovaldi has done a good job on the mound for Texas, especially at home where he hasn’t given up a run in two of his last three starts. | |||||||
07-18-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles -117 | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Baltimore Orioles in game 2 of their series on Tuesday night. Pitching for the Dodgers is Michael Grove, who has a 1-2 record with a 6.89 ERA. His percentiles are not exactly appealing, as he ranks in the lower end for most categories. He currently sits in the 15th percentile for xBA, 15th percentile for xSLG, 34th percentile for K% and 45th percentile for hard-hit rate. In games that he pitched for more than 3.0 innings, he has allowed 4+ runs on 6 of 9 occasions. There shouldn’t really be much of a reason to doubt the talented Orioles offense in this particular matchup. Pitching for Baltimore is Tyler Wells, who has a 7-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Unlike Grove, Wells has solid statistics regarding his percentiles. He ranks in the 78th percentile for xBA, 64th percentile for K% and 86th percentile for BB%. Through his last 8 starts, he hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any. The Dodgers have been hot lately, but Wells may just be the answer to slow down their bats. Simply based on the pitching discrepancy that could be at hand in this matchup | |||||||
07-17-23 | Tigers -123 v. Royals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers haven't been all that bad lately, winning 15 of their last 29 games and 4 of 6 against the Royals this season. The Royals are a horrible 14-33 at home and average the second fewest runs per game. Jordan Lyles is on the mound for KC today. Lyles comes in with a sky high 6.42 ERA as the Royals are 1-16 in his starts. He will be opposed by Matt Manning who sports a respectable 3.72 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. The Tigers should limit a Royals lineup that averages only 3.66 runs per game with Matt Manning pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a lead. | |||||||
07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs -133 | 7-5 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (7-6, 4.31 ERA) will look for the offense to be more consistent when he makes his 19th start of the season today. In his most recent outing, Smyly allowed four runs on six hits in four innings against the New York Yankees on July 8. He walked four and struck out three in a 6-3 loss. Smyly is 2-0 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) against the Nationals. He earned a win at Washington on May 1 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball. Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore (4-7, 4.42 ERA) will oppose Smyly after going just 1 1/3 innings against the Cincinnati Reds on July 6. He surrendered no runs and one hit and struck out one before a rain delay cut his outing short. In his previous start, Gore was shelled for seven runs and six hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 1. Gore is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts versus the Cubs. He lost to Smyly and Chicago on May 1, when he yielded four runs on seven hits in four-plus innings. The Nationals have lost seven of their past 10 games, including an 8-4 loss on Sunday in the rubber game of a three-game road series against the St. Louis Cardinals. | |||||||
07-17-23 | Marlins +105 v. Cardinals | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins’ southpaw has been incredible this season with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.53 xERA in 19 starts while limiting hitters to just a .225 xBA. He went into the break throwing a shutout in 3 of the 4 outings, and that included against this Cardinals team. Luzardo went 6 innings and allowed only 5 hits while striking out 8 St. Louis hitters. The Cardinals sent Matthew Liberatore back to Triple-A earlier this week so Mikolas getting the start here on short rest thanks to the suspension of Friday’s game could put pressure on an already struggling bullpen. Miles Mikolas is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the game. He was absolutely terrible in the first month of the season, bounced back with a 1.89 ERA in 6 starts in May, and then went back to his old self in June. | |||||||
07-16-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs -139 | 11-5 | Loss | -139 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justin Steele is one of the most underappreciated and undervalued pitchers in the game. In 16 starts in the first half of the season, Steele accumulated a 2.56 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. He allowed more than 3 runs in only 2 of his 16 starts which is absolutely insane to think about. In 9 of his 16 starts, Steele has surrendered 1 run or less. But perhaps the most dangerous part of Steele in this matchup is that he has not thrown more than 1 inning in more than 10 days. His last start of the first half of the season was on July 5 against the Brewers, and then he appeared in 1 inning during the All-Star Game. That means Steele is very well-rested and ready to give 100 pitches if needed. | |||||||
07-15-23 | Astros -133 v. Angels | 12-13 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has dominated the Los Angeles Angels in his two previous starts this season. He's scheduled to face them again tonight in the middle contest of a three-game series in Anaheim, Calif., and he'll be coming off six days of rest this time around. Valdez (7-6, 2.51 ERA) hasn't pitched since allowing two runs and five hits in six innings of 3-2 win against the Seattle Mariners last Saturday. Like many of the Angels, Detmers was sharp in the month of June, going 1-1 in five starts with a 2.05 ERA. Detmers (2-6, 4.31) was also solid in his first start of July, limiting the Arizona Diamondbacks to two runs in six innings. He took a step back in his most recent outing last Saturday, however, surrendering seven runs and six hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has made five career starts against the Astros and owns a 1-2 mark and 4.62 ERA. The Angels had a few positives come out of their 7-5 loss to the Astros in the series opener on Friday night, their season-high sixth straight defeat. | |||||||
07-15-23 | Red Sox -104 v. Cubs | 4-10 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Left-hander James Paxton (5-1, 2.73 ERA) goes to the hill today when he makes his 11th start of the season. Paxton has been stellar over his past seven outings, going 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. In his most recent start, Paxton allowed two runs on six hits in six innings during a victory against the Oakland Athletics on July 8. He walked one and struck out three. Paxton has never faced the Cubs. Right-hander Marcus Stroman (9-6, 2.96 ERA) will get the nod for Chicago as he attempts to get back on track. Through his first 16 starts this season, Stroman went 9-4 with a 2.28 ERA. In three outings since then, he is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA, most recently surrendering four runs on four hits in five innings against the Milwaukee Brewers on July 6. The Red Sox hit righties well, and they are hitting from 1 through 9 and all up and down their order. | |||||||
07-14-23 | Brewers -114 v. Reds | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee ace and All-Star pitcher Corbin Burnes (7-5, 3.94 ERA) will start the series opener Friday against Cincinnati. Burnes has a pair of quality starts against Cincinnati in his previous two outings, including on July 7 when he held the Reds to three runs on two hits over six innings in a 7-3 Milwaukee win. Burnes is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances against Cincinnati, including six starts. Burnes became just the fifth player in Brewers history to be named to three straight All-Star games, joining Don Money, Dan Plesac, Ryan Braun and Josh Hader. But the last-minute replacement for Spencer Strider did not pitch in Tuesday's game in Seattle. The Reds counter with another right-hander in Graham Ashcraft (4-6, 6.28), making his team-leading 17th start of 2023. In his last start on July 5 in Washington, Ashcraft snapped a personal three-game skid and won for the first time since May 28, scattering seven hits and one run over six innings in Cincinnati's 9-2 win. Ashcraft is winless in four career starts against Milwaukee, going 0-3 with 10.13 ERA. He was tagged for a career-worst 10 runs -- all earned -- on nine hits over four innings in a 10-8 Milwaukee win on June 3 in Cincinnati. | |||||||
07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies +105 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres will turn to right-hander Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.87 ERA) today against Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 2.84). Darvish, 36, admitted to feeling "close to 100 percent now" after he returned to the lineup last Friday following a bout with a viral illness that kept him sidelined since June 21. He saw his winless stretch extend to three games, however, despite allowing three runs in five innings of a no-decision against the New York Mets. Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia however this season has a 6.16 road ERA. Like Darvish, Sanchez followed two straight losses with a no-decision in his last trip to the mound. Sanchez permitted one run on four hits in six innings at Tampa Bay. Sanchez, 26, has yet to face the Padres in his career. | |||||||
07-09-23 | Cardinals v. White Sox -125 | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giolito (6-5, 3.50 ERA) is pitching effectively as he gets set to face the St. Louis Cardinals, and with a contract that expires after the season, he could be attractive trade bait as the White Sox sink in the American League Central standings. St. Louis will start an enigma of its own in left-hander Steven Matz (0-7, 5.02). Sent to the bullpen in late May after season-opening struggles in the starting rotation, Matz takes the rotation spot of Adam Wainwright (shoulder), who recently landed on the injured list. While Matz stumbled Wednesday in Miami, allowing two runs and three hits in 2 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 1.98 ERA over his first seven relief appearances, and he hasn't surrendered a home run since May 24. Overall, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Additionally, he has a 7.14 ERA on the road | |||||||
07-09-23 | Braves +103 v. Rays | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves and Rays play the final game of their 3-game series on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta has won the first 2 games and has the best record in the majors going into the All-Star break. The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball and have won 12 of their last 13 games. Tampa Bay started the season hot but has fallen off and is 0-7 in the last 7 games. The Rays will try to get a win by bringing out Zach Eflin. He has a 3.24 ERA through 16 starts with a 9-4 record. He is a strikeout pitcher who has a 26.1 K percentage, and only a 3.9 BB percentage, which is in the top 3% in the league. He will be opposed by Bryce Elder for the Braves, who has an incredible 2.45 ERA through 17 starts with a 7-1 record. The Braves are 6-2 as an underdog this year. Atlanta is the hottest team in baseball, so it is very hard to bet against them. They are 12-1 in their last 13, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-2 in their last 7 against Tampa Bay. | |||||||
07-08-23 | Braves -141 v. Rays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta is going with All-Star Spencer Strider (10-2, 3.66 ERA), who leads the majors with 155 strikeouts. Tampa Bay is turning to rookie Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27), who has 76 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. Neither starter has yet to face the opposition. Strider is one of a franchise-high eight players to be selected to the All-Star Game. The 24-year-old has won each of his past four starts, fanning 34 in 24 2/3 innings in that span. He gave up three runs (two earned) with nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings against the Miami Marlins on Sunday. For the Rays, Bradley has been going through some growing pains. He surrendered one run on three hits in six innings of a 7-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on June 21. But in his past two starts, the 22-year-old rookie has struggled. Bradley allowed seven earned runs in four innings in a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 27, and five runs in 3 1/3 innings in a no-decision at the Seattle Mariners on Sunday. | |||||||
07-08-23 | Rangers -168 v. Nationals | 3-8 | Loss | -168 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Texas Rangers took the series opener over the Washington Nationals in a comfortable 7-2 win last night, extending the Nationals losing streak to 5 games. Considering Washington has lost 7 straight home games with Jake Irvin starting on the mound, no way that this streak to end today. Irvin is below-average in several categories with a 1.45 WHIP and 5.15 ERA at home this year. He posts a low strikeout rate (6.71 K/9) and high walk rate (4.36 BB/9). If Irvin has a short outing, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in the MLB with a 4.67 ERA. Against the #1 scoring offense in the league, that’s a recipe for disaster. Washington has lost 15 of 16 at Nationals Park since June 3. The Nationals, who are in last place in the National League East, are an NL-worst 13-32 at home. Texas, which is in first in the American League West, is 25-19 on the road this season. | |||||||
07-07-23 | Reds +110 v. Brewers | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cincinnati starter, Andrew Abbott dominated the Milwaukee Brewers last month in his major league debut for the Cincinnati Reds. He hasn't cooled off since. Tonight, Abbott will look to help the Reds post a sixth straight win and pad their National League Central lead over the second-place Brewers in Milwaukee. The 24-year-old Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) has been a marvel while allowing five runs, including four on four homers, 20 hits and striking out 42 over 37 1/3 innings in six starts since debuting June 5. The left-hander set personal bests with 7 2/3 innings and 12 strikeouts while giving up a solo homer and three other hits during Sunday's 4-3 win over San Diego. Cincinnati is 6-0 in games pitched by Abbott, who has the second-lowest ERA among any Reds pitcher through his first six career starts. Tom Browning had an 0.95 ERA spanning the 1984 and 1985 seasons. The Brewers have been terrible against southpaws this season (.209/.304/.311 against lefty starters and .223/.304/.357 overall), too. They are favored here by virtue of Corbin Burnes, the 2021 Cy Young winner, being on the mound, but he has a 4.00 ERA and 4.22 FIP this season. | |||||||
07-07-23 | Braves +105 v. Rays | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves come in at 25-5 in their last 30 games while scoring nearly seven runs per game in that span. They are first in home runs per game, second in runs scored, eighth in fewest strikeouts per game, and seventh in steals. Simply put, the Braves put the ball in play, they drive the ball when they do, and they can kill you with speed also. Braves' starter Morton is 3-0 in his last three starts and has seen his K/9 rate rise over 11 in that span. Morton struggled through 2022 mainly due to his inability to get swings and misses. This season, he has raised his K/9 rate back up to elite levels and the results have shown in wins and his ERA. The Rays come in looking extremely vulnerable for the first time all season. They've lost five games in a row, are 4-7 in their last eleven games, and are hitting just .228 in that time. | |||||||
07-07-23 | Phillies -121 v. Marlins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies, who have won a dozen straight road games, will visit the Miami Marlins today to start a weekend series. Philadelphia's road winning streak - which includes a 3-1 win over host Tampa Bay on Thursday -- is tied for the second-longest in franchise history, trailing only a 13-game run in 1976. Today, Miami will start reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.93 ERA). The right-hander is 6-8 with a 3.79 ERA in 17 career starts against the Phillies. Alcantara has struggled all year in his encore to his Cy Young performance, posting ERAs of 5.04 in April, 4.85 in May, 4.59 in June and 7.20 so far in July. Philadelphia will start right-hander Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.03 ERA). Wheeler, who finished second in the NL Cy Young voting in 2021, has been dominant in his career against the Marlins, going 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 20 starts. | |||||||
07-06-23 | Phillies +120 v. Rays | 3-1 | Win | 120 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies have won 11 straight road games, and they have extended the Rays' losing streak to a season-high four games. The Rays have been the most dominant team in the American League, but they have leveled off of late, dropping six of their last 10. Rays will go with right-hander Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 1.15 ERA) as an opener. He is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in four career appearances vs. Philadelphia, all in relief. The Phillies will start left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-2, 3.26). In his latest start, a 2-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals on Friday, the 26-year-old gave up two runs, one earned, in six innings. Sanchez has done a good job on the mound for the Phillies, giving up eight runs in four starts. He didn’t give up a run in his only road start of the season and Philadelphia’s bullpen is playing well in recent games. | |||||||
07-06-23 | Blue Jays -120 v. White Sox | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto will aim to stay perfect against Chicago this season while Guerrero, the Jays' All-Star first baseman, tries to stay hot. He keyed Tuesday's 4-3 win in the season opener with a go-ahead, two-run home run to the opposite field in the eighth inning. Toronto has outscored Chicago 24-5 while winning each of the first four meetings between the teams. White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn, who was slated to oppose fellow righty Jose Berrios on Wednesday night, instead will face him in the opener of today's twin bill. Lynn (5-8, 6.47 ERA) will try to avoid a second loss to the Blue Jays this season. He took the loss in an April 24 game at Rogers Centre in Toronto, spacing four runs and five hits in five innings with three walks and four strikeouts. In 11 career appearances against Toronto, including 10 starts, Lynn is 2-4 with a 4.58 ERA. Berrios (8-6, 3.74) defeated Chicago the day after his teammates roughed up Lynn. Berrios pitched seven shutout innings on April 25 while allowing four hits with one walk and nine strikeouts. Berrios is 13-6 with a 3.26 ERA in 23 career starts against Chicago, with 145 strikeouts in 140 2/3 innings. Additionally, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA during the day. Lynn is 2-4 with a 7.22 ERA at home. | |||||||
07-06-23 | Reds +112 v. Nationals | 5-4 | Win | 112 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cincinnati is 13-1 over its past 14 road games, while the Nationals are 1-13 in their past 14 home games. This afternoon, rookie Brandon Williamson (1-2, 5.56 ERA) will make his 10th major league start for the Reds. The left-hander was solid his last time out, allowing two runs on three hits in five innings during a loss to the San Diego Padres on Saturday. He struck out five and walked one while throwing 86 pitches. Washington will counter with left-hander MacKenzie Gore (4-7, 4.48 ERA), who will be looking to rebound from his worst outing of the season. Gore, who revealed that he was dealing with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand, allowed seven runs on six hits and three walks, lasting just 2 2/3 innings in what ended up as a 19-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. De La Cruz, Steer, India, Matt McLain and others have jumpstarted this run by the Reds and they find themselves poised to be a buyer at the trade deadline, likely kicking the tires on some starting pitching. | |||||||
07-05-23 | Braves -158 v. Guardians | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta can do no wrong right now, with excellent pitching, hitting, defense, and complimentary baseball when one of those things falters. Mike Soroka hasn't been sharp on the mound, but the Braves offense should tee off on Cal Quantrill, who has been worse with a larger sample size. These bullpens can match up, eliminating an edge Cleveland has over almost everyone. In a slugfest, the Braves beat Cleveland 95% of the time this year. That's what should tonight. | |||||||
07-04-23 | Mariners -108 v. Giants | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In today's rematch, Seattle will hand the ball to Logan Gilbert (5-5, 4.19 ERA) with an eye on the break-even mark. The 26-year-old right-hander is coming off a 4-1 home loss to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, charged with all four runs in six innings. However, Gilbert is 4-1 on the road this season with a solid WHIP and a K/9 rate of over nine per contest. San Francisco plans a holiday parade of relievers on a bullpen day. Keaton Winn (0-1, 3.50 ERA) likely will serve as the opener. Yastrzemski's left-handed bat will be missed against the hard-throwing Gilbert in this spot. In addition, the Giants have four starters all questionable for this matchup with the most significant being Estrada and Conforto. | |||||||
07-04-23 | Phillies v. Rays -107 | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia has not played well on astroturf, losing each of their last seven on that surface and struggles against interleague opponents that have a winning record, losing 42 of the last 62 in that situation. Tampa Bay has won each of the last five games versus Philadelphia played at home and the Rays have won each of the last seven overall against the Phillies. Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola has been hit hard in three of the last four starts, allowing a grand total of 14 runs in 24 innings, giving up four runs or more in three of the four starts. Tampa Bay starting pitcher Zach Eflin has had three consecutive solid outings allowing seven runs in 19 innings with Tampa Bay winning two of the three. Tampa Bay combines the 5th best ERA, with the third-best team batting average. The Rays have scored the second most runs. | |||||||
07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves will try to run their winning streak to nine games when they open a three-game series at the Cleveland Guardians tonight. Atlanta also has won 16 of its past 17 games and 23 of 26 to take a nine-game lead in the National League East. Atlanta will put its winning streak in the hands of right-hander Bryce Elder (6-1, 2.44 ERA), who enters the series opener with the second-lowest ERA in the majors. Elder is 2-0 in his past three starts with a 1.42 ERA. Atlanta's offense is one of the best in baseball and their experience will allow them to take advantage of the youthfulness on the other side. Additionally, the Guardians are 1-6 in their last seven games against NL East opponents. | |||||||
07-03-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins -126 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St Louis has struggled against teams with a winning record, losing 11 of the last 14 and the Cardinals have lost five of the last six on the road against a team with a winning record. Miami has won 14 of its last 12 at home against the team with a losing record and overall at home, Miami has won 10 of its last 13. St Louis starting pitcher Miles Mikolas has been hit hard in each of the last four starts allowing 30 hits and 18 runs in only 24 ⅔ innings with St Louis losing each of those four games. In contrast, Miami starting pitcher Braxton Garrett has had four consecutive strong outings allowing three runs in 23 ⅓ innings with Miami winning each of the four games. Miami has won 8 of Garrett's last nine starts. | |||||||
07-03-23 | Reds -121 v. Nationals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington will start rookie Jake Irvin (1-4, 4.72 ERA) in the opener. Since having his turn skipped in the rotation, Irvin is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. He allowed three runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a no-decision at Seattle in his last outing. Cincinnati, meanwhile, looks to continue an unlikely winning streak. Luke Weaver (1-2, 6.96) will get the nod for the Reds, who have won six straight Weaver starts. The right-hander has been very inconsistent over that span -- allowing seven runs once and five twice -- but each time the Reds have done enough to come out on top. Weaver hasn't picked up any of those wins, as his last decision -- a win -- came on May 9 when he beat the New York Mets.The Reds have won four of their last five, including a series-clinching 4-3 victory over the San Diego Padres on Sunday. | |||||||
07-02-23 | Yankees -110 v. Cardinals | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units St. Louis starter, Montgomery has done a good job on the mound in recent weeks but hasn’t been as sharp at home where he gave up five runs in his last two starts. The Yankees will counter Sunday with ace Gerrit Cole, who originally was slated to start Saturday. Yankees manager Aaron Boone pushed Cole's start back after Friday's game was rained out. Cole (8-1, 2.78 ERA) will look to rebound from his shortest outing of the season. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cardinals. | |||||||
07-02-23 | Twins -110 v. Orioles | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twins right-hander Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.67 ERA) looks to continue the stinginess evidenced by Minnesota starters in the series thus far. Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober combined to limit the Orioles to one run and five hits over 13 innings in the first two games. The Orioles have lost four straight and 16 of their last 31 and will try to avoid being swept for the first time this season today. It might not be so easy for Baltimore to get back on track, though. Gray has the fourth-best ERA in the American League and has allowed no more than three runs in each of his 16 starts this season, though the Twins have only managed an 8-8 record in those contests. Last time out, Gray allowed three runs on seven hits over 6 2/3 innings of a loss to the Atlanta Braves. He struck out five and walked one. Gray is 6-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 12 career starts versus Baltimore. Left-hander Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.18) gets the nod for the Orioles. Irvin will be making his seventh start and ninth appearance of the season on Sunday. He is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA in his past four appearances. | |||||||
07-01-23 | Twins v. Orioles -133 | 1-0 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore starter, Bradish (4-3, 3.75 ERA) is aiming to win a third consecutive start. The right-hander is 2-1 with 2.37 ERA over his past three starts, striking out 16 and walking four in 19 innings. On Sunday, he held the Seattle Mariners to two runs on two hits over seven innings. He struck out seven and walked two while throwing a season-high 103 pitches. Bradish retired 13 of the last 14 batters he faced in a 3-2 win. Minnesota will start Bailey Ober (4-4, 2.97 ERA) on Saturday. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 3.89 ERA over his past seven starts, with 38 strikeouts and eight walks in 39 1/3 innings. In his latest outing, Ober allowed three runs on five hits over six innings of a no-decision against the Detroit Tigers on Sunday. Minnesota is just 18-23 on the road while the Orioles are nine games over .500. | |||||||
07-01-23 | Astros +123 v. Rangers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas starter, Eovaldi (9-3, 2.82 ERA) is attempting to become just the second Texas pitcher since 2013 with double-digit wins prior to the All-Star Game. Lance Lynn accomplished the feat last in 2019, going 11-4 before the break. Eovaldi had a no-decision in his last start at the New York Yankees on Sunday, allowing two runs on four hits with two walks and five strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings. Against the Astros, Eovaldi is 2-3 with a 4.43 ERA in eight starts over his career. He earned a win in his previous start against them on Aug. 1, 2022, allowing two unearned runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings as a member of the Boston Red Sox. For the Astros, Brown (6-4, 3.62) is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the Rangers. He has dominated, allowing just two unearned runs on eight hits with two walks and 10 strikeouts over a combined 13 innings. Brown faced the Rangers earlier this season on April 15, allowing two unearned runs on five hits with one walk and five strikeouts over seven innings in an 8-2 win. | |||||||
06-30-23 | Rays -130 v. Mariners | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays are 5-1 in their last six meetings with the Mariners. They're 5-0 in their last five Friday games and 4-1 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 7-21 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.The Mariners hit poorly, even at home (.228 BA/.309 OBP/.383 SLG/.692 OPS). The Rays hit .260/.328/.439/.768 on the road and .268/.335/.478/.813 in night games. To cap it off, the Rays are 13-2 in games McClanahan has started. | |||||||
06-30-23 | Twins v. Orioles -108 | 8-1 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has struggled to put runs on the board of late with just 11 runs in their last five games. Lopez has struggled after a strong start to the season, posting just one win in his last 10 starts entering this contest. Minnesota is just 17-23 on the road this season and stands two games below .500 on the season while dropping out of first place in the weak AL Central. Baltimore sputtered against the Reds but they are a good team at home, posting a 25-16 mark at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are good offensively, which is something that the Twins, despite their collection of talent, have failed to put together consistently. | |||||||
06-30-23 | Giants -120 v. Mets | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Mets have struggled of late losing six of the last eight overall and when playing at home, New York has lost four of the last five. San Francisco has played very well over the last 3 weeks, winning 13 of the last 16. On the road, San Francisco has been victorious in 10 of its last 11 and during June the Giants are 7-3 over the last 10 played. New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has a 6.19 ERA and has struggled throughout the first half of the season. Carrasco has allowed four runs or more in his 10 starts this season. In his 10 starts, Carrasco has allowed 11 home runs and has issued 23 walks in a total of 48 innings pitched. The Mets have struggled on the mound as New York's team ERA is 4.59 and opposing hitters average .250 against New York pitching which is 20th. | |||||||
06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs +107 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies are facing off against the Chicago Cubs in game 3 of their series on Thursday night. The Phillies are listing Taijuan Walker as their starting pitcher who currently has a 4.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Walker’s percentiles are quite concerning, as he ranks in the lower end for a majority. On the mound for the Cubs will be the right handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has an impressive 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. While his percentiles show that he is not exactly a big strikeout pitcher, they do show that he limits hard hit balls and keeps them in the park (1 home run allowed through 6 starts). He also doesn’t give up many free bases as he is in the 74th percentile for BB%. Hendricks has the ability to control a game and go deep into the game as well, which is something many others cannot do. | |||||||
06-29-23 | Astros -110 v. Cardinals | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Adam Wainwright's farewell tour with the St. Louis Cardinals has not gone as hoped. He has given up a ton of hits per start, has lost the ability to put batters away, and has coughed up five home runs in his last three starts. Wainwright has been even worse at home this season, without a quality start in five starts and an ERA over seven. Houston starter France has been very consistent for the Astros with five quality starts in his nine starts overall. On the road, he's been even better with three quality starts in five this year and an ERA that dips under two and a half this season. France has done a much better job than Wainwright in keeping runners off base this season with fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. The Astros power bats should have a field day with Wainwright on the mound. | |||||||
06-28-23 | Rays -145 v. Diamondbacks | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tampa Bay Rays are in Arizona to face the Diamondbacks in game 2 of their series on tonight. Pitching for the Rays will be Zach Eflin, who has notable numbers through this point of the season. He currently has a 3.35 ERA and an impressive 1.03 WHIP. His percentiles back up these numbers too, as he sits in the higher end of most categories such as xBA (74th percentile), xSLG (69th percentile), K% (63rd percentile) & BB% (95th percentile). The Diamondbacks are definitely talented, but Eflin has the tools needed to potentially slow them down. On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be Zach Davies. He has struggled thus far, having a 1-4 record with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. His percentiles are the near opposite of Eflin as he sits near the bottom of the league in most categories. Additionally, the Rays are 8-2 in their last ten vs. a team with a winning record while the D-Backs are 21-53 in their last 74 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. | |||||||
06-28-23 | Astros +103 v. Cardinals | 10-7 | Win | 103 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Houston has struggled in their last ten games, going just 3-7, they have been more consistent on the road overall this season. The Astros are hitting .250 on the road this season but have shown off their power away from home, hitting 113 extra-base hits away from home this year in 37 games. They have hit 22 home runs in their last 15 road games and should be able to do some damage against Cardinals' starter Mikolas who has had trouble putting hitters away via the strikeout this season. The Cardinals are just 23rd in runs allowed per game this year and are allowing nearly a run more per game at home this season than on the road. The Cardinals are also just 4-7 in their last eleven home games after last nights win. The Cardinals have also lost each of Mikolas' last four appearances. | |||||||
06-27-23 | Astros -110 v. Cardinals | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Through the first three months of the season, Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez has ranked among the top contenders for the American League Cy Young Award. Valdez (7-5, 2.27 ERA) will try to further his case Tuesday when he faces the Cardinals on Tuesday to open a three-game series in St. Louis. He has the second-best earned-run average among the league's qualified pitchers, trailing only Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan (2.23 ERA). Valdez is coming off a 4-2 victory over the New York Mets on June 20, which snapped Houston's five-game losing streak. He allowed the two runs on four hits over eight innings while striking out nine batters and walking just one. Valdez is 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his past six starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 15 starts overall. The Astros have a little momentum after winning Sunday night, while the Cardinals are jet-lagged after playing in London. | |||||||
06-27-23 | Twins v. Braves -137 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ryan is an excellent pitcher, but he's been defeated more often than not recently, losing three of his last five outings. In two of those starts, he gave up five-plus runs and two long balls. If he's anything like that on Tuesday, the Braves will jump on him early, putting the Twins in a deficit they're unlikely to recover from. Minnesota hits .221/.300/.374/.674 on the road (37 GP) and .226/.303/.399/.702 in its night games (41 GP). Its' June splits (.229/.293/.401/.694) fall short of the mark, too. Elder has held eight of his last ten opponents to two or fewer runs, and six of those foes were held to one or no runs. | |||||||
06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels -128 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have to fly in to kick off this series, which eliminates any rest advantage to speak of here. Cease goes on an extra day of rest for the White Sox as they chose to send Tanner Banks to the hill in Sunday’s finale against Boston. With that said, he hasn’t been great with extra rest in his career, posting a 10-8 mark with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.363 WHIP, 104 walks and 219 strikeouts over 186.1 innings in 36 starts on five days rest. Detmers has been sharp his last few turns through the rotation and the Angels have been more consistent offensively this season. Playing at home with a lineup brimming with confidence is enough to give the Angels the advantage in this contest. | |||||||
06-24-23 | Red Sox -107 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Paxton has been excellent since returning from the IL and has given the Red Sox arguably a #1 starter to replace the injured Chris Sale. He has been slightly less effective on the road but has still consistently gone into the sixth inning at least on the road. Lynn, despite his last start, has been hit hard this season with an ERA over six and allowed more hits than innings pitched. He has been even less effective at home with a reduced K/9 rate and a higher ERA. The Red Sox have the superior lineup of the two teams and should be able to take advantage of Lynn and his inconsistent stuff. Also, it will be interesting to see how veteran Lynn bounces back after throwing over 110 pitches in his last start and going deep into the game. I like the Sox to take advantage of Lynn in this one and take game two of this series. | |||||||
06-24-23 | Rangers -127 v. Yankees | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers picked up a 4-2 victory in 10 innings in Friday’s series opener, handing the Yankees their second consecutive setback against an American League West team. Texas, meanwhile, has posted wins in 5 of its past 6 outings, including 3 straight wins against American League East Division foes. The Rangers hand the ball to RHP Jon Gray, who was pounded for 6 runs and 6 hits with 3 walks in just 2 1/3 innings in a no-decision on Sunday against Toronto. Texas still managed to win that game. Despite the ugly outing, he is still has a respectable 3.44 ERA in 18 1/3 innings in 3 June outings, including a complete-game loss in his prior outing against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 7. The Yankees counter with RHP Luis Severino, who has been extremely erratic in June. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of his 4 outings, and he hasn’t had a quality start while going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA in June. He has allowed 7 home runs in the ugly 18 2/3-inning span, while allowing 9 walks and 29 hits in the 4 outings. | |||||||
06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dodgers will send right-hander Emmet Sheehan (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound Friday for his second career start. The 23-year-old rookie had a dynamic debut last Friday when he did not allow a hit over six innings against the San Francisco Giants. Sheehan had a 0.89 WHIP at Double-A before being called up. The Astros will counter with their own rookie in right-hander J.P. France (2-2, 3.42), who has never faced the Dodgers. France pitched well in his most recent start last Friday against the Cincinnati Reds when he gave up two runs on four hits over 6 2/3 innings but took the loss anyway against the red-hot Reds. In France's eight career starts, the Houston offense has averaged just 2.9 runs per game. The Dodgers come into this one with a 22-14 record at home. Houston has struggled since June 6, going 5-10 over a stretch played mostly without slugger Yordan Alvarez (oblique). | |||||||
06-23-23 | Mariners v. Orioles -104 | 13-1 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners have been weak offensively all season long, ranking tied for 28th in team batting average (.226), 24th in on-base percentage (.307) and 25th in slugging percentage (.378) as a team entering Thursday’s action. Their offensive numbers could be worse if they weren’t hitting .250 as a team with runners in scoring position on the year. Gilbert has had his issues of late and we know how prolific the Orioles lineup is when it comes to putting runs on the board. Gibson has pitched well this season and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his past six starts, including when he held the Cubs to three runs on three hits with seven strikeouts and two walks over six innings in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. He knows that he can get decent run support from the lineup behind him. That’s something the Mariners, who are 15-20 on the road, haven’t been able to reliably provide for any of their pitchers. Baltimore rebounds after their tough trip to take the opening game of this series. | |||||||
06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees -115 | 10-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle has been disappointing offensively as one expected more from Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez this season after what we saw in 2022. The Mariners struggled to get anything going against Cole in the opening game of the series and have had their problems against German, including back on May 29 at home. Sure, they got to German for four runs on seven hits with three walks and four strikeouts but still ended up on the wrong side of a 10-4 blowout. Woo has shown good control in his three starts but those are his first outings above Double-A, which means there are growing pains that come with pitching at the big league level. The Yankees have had their own offensive woes with Aaron Judge on the IL but they should do enough against Woo to earn the win here, clinching the series. | |||||||
06-22-23 | Pirates v. Marlins -134 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units During their losing streak, the Pirates have recorded a 112 wRC+ against the southpaws and 37 wRC+ against the righties. Even if the Bucs get to Braxton Garrett, who’ll have to slow down a bit, the Marlins have a few quality righties in their bullpen. Miami’s bullpen has been terrific in the last ten days, notching a 2.83 ERA and 3.35 FIP through 28.2 innings of work. On the other side, the Pirates’ relievers have thrown 25.2 frames in that span while posting a disastrous 9.82 ERA and 5.85 FIP. The Marlins’ offense will have a tall task to hit well against Mitch Keller despite his recent struggles, but I don’t trust Pittsburgh’s bullpen to get the job done. | |||||||
06-22-23 | Diamondbacks -148 v. Nationals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10 games above .500 on the road this season after securing a series win against the Brewers this week. The rebuilding Washington Nationals are playing with no confidence and have dropped seven of their last ten games. They aren't any better at home where they have lost nine of ten. The D-Backs have already played the Nationals five times this season, winning four of the meetings. D-Backs’ starter Tommy Henry just limited the Guardians to two runs in six innings in his latest effort. Arizona has won in each of his last four starts. It’s been a struggle for Nationals starter Jake Irvin, especially at Nationals Park where he has a horrible 6.20 ERA in 24.2 innings. | |||||||
06-21-23 | Dodgers v. Angels -144 | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We believe that the Angels will win mostly because of the Dodgers’ struggles on the mound. The Dodgers’ relievers have been awful lately, sporting a 5.01 ERA, and better only than Oakland's (5.51) in the majors. Additionally, the Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t impressed in the last few weeks, whereas the Angels’ offense has done an excellent job. Only four guys from this Dodgers team have seen Shohei Ohtani before, combining for six hits and three RBI in 15 at-bats. Ohtani has had ups and downs since terrific April, but I’m expecting to see a strong performance in this game. The Dodgers have recorded an 86 wRC+ against the righties in the last two weeks. | |||||||
06-21-23 | Blue Jays -129 v. Marlins | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alcantara's struggles this season are a bit concerning. He dominated last season with his changeup but this season, he has had difficulty getting hitters out with that pitch. Alcantara appears to be one pitcher that has struggled with the shift changes this season with a higher batting average against him and difficulty putting hitters away. After dominating the Nationals over the last two seasons, Alcantara gave up 10 hits against the Nationals in his last start and was only able to strike out one batter. Gausman, meanwhile, has thrived with his splitter this season and has a K/9 rate up over 11. While his ERA raises slightly on the road, it is still under four and generally keeps the ball out of play with a high strikeout rate. I like Gausman to win what may not be as much of a pitchers' duel as it appears on paper. | |||||||
06-20-23 | Cubs -121 v. Pirates | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chicago Cubs have found their stride, and they have been doing so at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chicago is 8-2 in its past 10 games, including a three-game sweep of the Pirates last week at home and Monday's 8-0 win in the opener of a three-game set in Pittsburgh. The Pirates, conversely, have lost seven in a row and are struggling to score. Chicago right-hander Marcus Stroman (8-4, 2.45 ERA) is scheduled to start against Pittsburgh right-hander Johan Oviedo (3-6, 4.40). Oviedo struck out eight but gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings to take the loss in that meeting, while Stroman allowed two runs on four hits in six innings and got the win. It was also Stroman's sixth consecutive win. He has a 1.51 ERA during that stretch, which spans 41 2/3 innings. Oviedo, on the other hand, has lost his past three decisions. He is 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against the Cubs. | |||||||
06-20-23 | Royals v. Tigers -138 | 1-0 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers have won three of their last four games and have scored 18 runs in their last three home games. They have also hit the ball well against left-handers and Kansas City starter, Lynch has struggled on the mound, giving up 17 runs in four starts this season. He gave up 12 runs in his last three starts against the Tigers and with Kansas City having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Tigers in this game. The Royals have lost nine of their last 10 games and seven of their last eight road games and have struggled offensively on the road scoring only eight runs in their last five road games. They have struggled against right-handers and Detroit starter Lorenzen has done better on the mound at home, giving up 15 runs in five home starts. | |||||||
06-19-23 | Cubs -118 v. Pirates | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at two teams heading in opposite directions over the last 10 days or so entering Sunday. Chicago had won five straight and seven of eight while the Pirates had lost five straight and eight of their previous 10. In the series opener, Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (6-4, 3.59 ERA) is expected to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Osvaldo Bido (0-0, 2.25). This is a rematch of Wednesday's game, when Smyly came away with the win and Bido, in his major league debut, did not get a decision despite a good outing. Smyly gave up five runs and nine hits in six innings, with four strikeouts and one walk, but got plenty of offensive support in Chicago's 10-6 win. Smyly has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 outings this year. | |||||||
06-19-23 | Royals v. Tigers -142 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City has lost 14 of its last 16 games after the Los Angeles Angels defeated it 5-2 on Sunday. The Tigers won twice in a three-game series at Kansas City last month. It's been a rough season for the Royals, and right-hander Jordan Lyles, today's expected starter, epitomizes those struggles. Lyles has an 0-11 record and a 6.89 ERA. He's been charged with the loss in six of his past seven outings, including his last start on Tuesday. Lyles, who has made 14 starts, gave up five runs and five hits in six innings against Cincinnati. The Tigers hit much better at home (.246 BA/.320 OBP/.396 SLG/.716 OPS in 33 games) than they do away from Comerica Park (.212/.284/.329/.613 in 36 games) and are also better at the dish at night (.237/.321/.384/.705 in 34 games) than in day games (.219/.281/.338/.619 in 35 games). | |||||||
06-19-23 | Blue Jays -152 v. Marlins | 0-11 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good opportunity for the Blue Jays to get back into the win column on Monday night. The Marlins are turning to an opener in this game which will lead to an extended bullpen effort for Miami. The Blue Jays have hit the ball well despite their inconsistency over the past week. In their last six games, the Jays are hitting .270, have hit eight home runs, and are slugging .428. The Jays will send Berrios to the mound, who is coming off his best performance of the season with 7.2 innings of three-hit ball against the Orioles on the road. Berrios has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last month and a half. He has gone 4-0 in his last five starts with an ERA of just 1.11. Expect Berrios to keep the Marlins at bay as the Blue Jays' offense takes advantage of a bullpen game from Miami. | |||||||
06-18-23 | Giants +115 v. Dodgers | 7-3 | Win | 115 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Something has to give in this matchup with Webb coming in undefeated in his career at Dodger Stadium and Gonsolin with an ERA under 2.00 at home this season. I'm leaning to the Giants in this game for two reasons; they are playing better baseball now, and I trust that Webb will go deeper in this game than Gonsolin. The Dodgers lineup is hitting just .234 in their last ten games with a record of just 4-6 heading into Saturday night's game. The loss of Muncy is also damaging to the Dodgers' middle of the order. which should boost Webb's chances of going deeper in this game. The Dodgers are also hitting just .224 during the day this season while the Giants are hitting .253 during the day. | |||||||
06-18-23 | Angels -121 v. Royals | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are 0-6 in Greinke's last six starts, and the Angels are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. The Angels are one of the hottest teams today, and I don't expect that to change tomorrow. Los Angeles scored four runs on seven hits against Zack Greinke earlier this season, launching two homers. I predict another solid day at the plate for LA. Anderson wasn't sharp in his previous outing against KC on April 22 (five earned runs on seven hits), but I don't expect the Royals to have similar success on Sunday. Kansas City is 1-12 straight-up this month, which isn't surprising when you consider its' June splits (.227/.288/.343/.631) at the plate and performance on the mound (5.63 ERA). KC has slightly better splits vs. left-handed pitchers than vs. righties, but it's not consistent enough to warrant a moneyline bet, even at home. | |||||||
06-17-23 | Rays +102 v. Padres | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This should be a good spot for the Padres, but I'd rather take my chances with the Rays. San Diego has struggled to win in favorable spots throughout the season, which is why they are the fifth worst-money team in MLB according to covers.com (-$1,085). On the other side, the Rays are the third-best money team (+$1,122) and 22-6 in their last 28 games against left-handed pitchers. Blake Snell has been pitching better for the Padres as of late, yet still, the club has lost five of his last seven starts. Overall the Rays are 10-2 when Eflin starts this season, and the Padres are just 3-10 when Snell takes the hill. I have to back baseball's best team here. | |||||||
06-17-23 | Cardinals v. Mets -148 | 5-3 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have won six of their last 10 home games and have scored 14 runs in their last three home games. It’s been a long season for St. Louis starter, Adam Wainwright – and he’s only made 7 starts. Wainwright has a 5.79 ERA paired with a 6.21 xERA in 37.1 innings, and he’s allowed at least 3 runs in every outing so far. His sinker is sitting mid-80s and his curveball isn’t spinning as much as it used to. That has added up to Wainwright becoming a batting practice pitcher this season, and that shouldn’t stop anytime soon. He’s yet to show that he can limit an offense, so until that happens, fade the longtime Cardinal and take New York’s money line. | |||||||
06-17-23 | Orioles +111 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steele (6-2, 2.65 ERA) takes the ball for the first time since exiting his start against Tampa Bay on May 31 with a left forearm strain. Though the Cubs are winless in Steele's past four starts, the left-hander is one inning shy of ranking among the major league leaders in ERA, opponents' batting average (.228) and WHIP (1.06). He has eight quality starts. Steele, who could be on a pitch count, faced Baltimore at home last July and allowed four runs, three earned, and six hits over six innings of a 7-1 Chicago loss. he Orioles will hand the ball to Kyle Gibson, who is a completely unexciting pitcher, but has managed to be serviceable all season. He has pitched to a 3.90 ERA, he hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in his last 5 starts, and the Orioles have won 4 of those starts. He keeps his team in the game so that his offense can work, and they seem overdue after a slow Friday. The Orioles are the better team in every phase of the game, and we don’t love backing a pitcher in his first game back from the IL. | |||||||
06-16-23 | Guardians v. Diamondbacks -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Can't bet against Gallen pitching at home at this point. He's yet to lose a game at home and has an ERA under one. Additionally, his strikeout numbers rise at home and his WHIP lowers. Add to that his matchup on Friday night, a Guardians' team that is just 27th in runs scored per game this season. While Gallen will get the Diamondbacks deep into this game, Mackenzie is still not quite stretched out yet and will likely give the Guardians just five innings in this game. Arizona is hitting .270 at home this season and is fifth in baseball in runs per game as well so they should give Gallen plenty of support in this game. Keep riding Gallen as long as he stays perfect. | |||||||
06-16-23 | Pirates v. Brewers -115 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rich Hill takes the mound for the Pirates. The veteran is usually a fade for me, especially with all the slow-breaking pitches he is flipping up to the plate these days. The Brewers are the worst team in the league against lefties, so he might get away with it on Friday, but we think they will have a better-than-normal day against Hill. The Brewers are starting Julio Teheran, who has had a career resurgence in Milwaukee. He has made 4 starts so far, and his worst was 6.1 innings with 2 runs allowed. If he repeats that performance, it’s going to be hard for Milwaukee to lose. Teheran will certainly not maintain 1.48/0.95 splits all season, but We’ll ride it as long as it lasts. With struggling teams duking it out, I am going to trust the pitcher riding a hot streak and take the Brewers to win the first game of this series. | |||||||
06-14-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -133 | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies have not been a reliable squad to back on the road where they have lost six of their last ten games. The Diamondbacks remain one of the hottest squads, posting a 7-4 record in their last eleven games. They have also won seven of their last eleven home games propelled by the hot offense. Phillies’ starter Ranger Suarez pitched against Arizona late last month and was clobbered, surrendering five runs. D-Backs’ starter Merrill Kelly is dominant, conceding two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. Arizona continues to deliver victories with Kelly on the hill, going 6-1 in his last seven outings. | |||||||
06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texas has pounded left-handed pitching this season. The Rangers are hitting .289 vs. lefties this season with a .825 OBPS and 66 extra-base hits. Detmers has an ERA of nearly six on the road this season and should be fodder for the Rangers' right-handed hitting lineup featuring the likes of Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, and Adolis Garcia. Even left-handed hitting Corey Seager is batting .367 vs. lefties this season. The Angels will be able to put up some numbers as well with one of the top run-scoring teams in baseball but will be battling a Rangers team that is tops in run differential this season and has the second-best home record in the American League. This should be an entertaining, high-scoring game that will likely be decided by the bullpens late. | |||||||
06-13-23 | Pirates +130 v. Cubs | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have won eight of their last 11 games and two of their last three road games. They have scored 15 runs in their last three road games. They’ve hit the ball well against right-handers and Taillon has struggled on the mound for the Cubs, especially at home where he has given up 16 runs in four starts. He gave up five runs in his only start against the Pirates, and with Chicago having the seventh-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Pirates in this game. The Cubs have lost four of their last seven games and five of their last seven home games. They have scored only eight runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Ortiz has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up six runs in his last three starts. He gave up one run in his only start against the Cubs. | |||||||
06-13-23 | Reds +100 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds are playing the better baseball of the two teams in recent weeks and should be able to keep Lyles winless on Tuesday night. Lyles' propensity for giving up the long ball should favor a Reds' team that has hit nine home runs in its last ten games. Lyles (0-10, 6.84 ERA) will be making his 14th start of the season. He yielded five runs over seven-plus innings in a 6-1 loss to the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. Lyles, 32, is 0-5 with a 5.23 ERA at home. Additionally, the Reds have won four of the five games started by Williamson, who should pitch well against a Royals' lineup that is hitting just .240 against lefties this season. KC is scoring just 1.6 runs per game in their last five games heading into Monday night's series opener. The Royals have also won just nine games at home this season while the Reds have won three straight and six of their last eight games. They have also won eight of their last 10 road games. | |||||||
06-13-23 | Yankees v. Mets -145 | 7-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have lost four of the last five when playing the first game of a new series and seven of the last eight following a day off. When playing head-to-head against the Yankees, the Mets have won five of the last six played at home. Both the Yankees and the Mets are playing without their best power hitters as the Yankees are without Aaron Judge and the Mets are without Pete Alonso, but the advantage here goes to the Mets, who will be playing at home in front of their raucous crowd and have talented right-handed Max Scherzer on the mound. Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino has struggled in each of the last two starts allowing 15 hits and 11 runs in just 9 Innings with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers and White Sox. Mets starting pitcher Scherzer had a tough outing last Wednesday but prior to that had four strong performances in a row allowing four runs in 25 innings with the New York Mets winning each of the four. | |||||||
06-12-23 | Reds +106 v. Royals | 5-4 | Win | 106 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Zack Greinke will start for the Royals, and he hasn’t been great either. Greinke is 1-6 this year with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Greinke gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings in his last start and hasn’t lasted deep into any game this season. That’s an issue when the Kansas City bullpen has the 2nd-highest ERA in the league. The Reds have looked good recently and have scored at a higher rate than they typically have this season within the past week, and the recent call-up of Elly De La Cruz has been beneficial for the Reds. De La Cruz is hitting .316 with a home run and multiple stolen bases. He also flashed his speed in scoring the go-ahead run in yesterday’s game against the Cardinals. De La Cruz has given the Reds a spark and has resulted in an offensive burst for them. The Reds’ offense has been great recently while the Royals have really struggled to score runs. Neither team is sending a great starter to the mound, but the Reds should benefit when both teams get to the bullpen. I’m taking the Reds at plus-money. | |||||||
06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers -150 | 9-6 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has lost six of the last eight when playing against a team from the American League West, while Texas has won 37 of its last 55 overall and the Rangers have won seven of the last nine when facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles starting pitcher Tyler Anderson was hit hard last time out allowing five hits and four runs in five innings while striking out five but walking three. Over the last two starts, Anderson has allowed 10 runs in just nine innings. Texas has won three of starting pitcher Dane Dunning's last five starts and over that span the right-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in 28 ⅓ innings. Texas leads baseball in runs scored, on-base percentage and team batting average and is fourth in slugging percentage while on the mound the Rangers are fifth best in team ERA and 5th best in batting average allowed. The Rangers might have lost two of three to the Rays but have still won 15 of their last 21 and are 21-9 at home. | |||||||
06-12-23 | Giants -127 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The San Francisco Giants are playing solid baseball, winning four out of their last six games. They have been reliable on the road, sporting a 6-1 record in their last seven road bouts. The Cardinals have struggled to find a groove most of the season and have now dropped seven of their last ten games after a series loss against the Reds. This is an ideal pitching matchup for the Giants. Logan Webb is having an excellent season,and was outstanding in his start against the Cardinals in late April, limiting them to only two runs in 6.2 innings. The Giants have won in three of Webb's last four road starts. Cards’ starter Matthew Liberatore is struggling, allowing eight runs in his last two outings spanning only nine innings. | |||||||
06-11-23 | Mets v. Pirates -126 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have won seven of their last nine games and five of their last seven home games, scoring 21 runs in their last three home games. They have hit the ball well against right-handers and Mets starter Carrasco has struggled on the mound this season, especially on the road where he has given up 12 runs in four starts. With New York’s bullpen also struggling at the moment, they will have a hard time slowing down the Pirates in this game. The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games and six of their last seven road games. With the exception of his last start, Keller has done a great job on the mound at home, giving up only eight runs in his previous five home starts. He didn’t give up a run in his last home start against the Mets and with Pittsburgh having the 10th-best bullpen in the league, the team won’t have trouble keeping New York’s offense in check. | |||||||
06-10-23 | Rangers +105 v. Rays | 8-4 | Win | 105 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays will look to take the series today behind 22-year-old rookie Taj Bradley (4-2, 3.60 ERA). The right-hander allowed two runs on six hits with six strikeouts and three walks over five innings to pick up a 6-2 win against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. Bradley has allowed more than three runs just once in seven starts this season. Bradley will have a tough assignment when he faces the Rangers for the first time in his brief career. Texas has scored a major-league-high 389 runs this season (Tampa Bay is second with 380), and the Rangers have scored at least six runs in 12 of their past 25 games. The Rangers will send ace right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (8-2, 2.24) to the mound today. Eovaldi allowed one hit and no walks over six shutout innings while striking out seven in a 12-3 win over the visiting Seattle Mariners on Sunday. Eovaldi, has given up more than one earned run in just one of his past seven starts. | |||||||
06-10-23 | Marlins v. White Sox +108 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox have won five of their last six games and four of their last five home games. They have done well against right-handers and Alcantara has still been unable to regain his form from last season, giving up 11 runs in his last three starts. He gave up eight runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the White Sox in this game. The Marlins have won six of their last seven games, but they split their last eight road games. White Sox starter, Kopech has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four starts. He gave up nine runs in his last five home starts and will keep Miami’s offense in check. | |||||||
06-10-23 | Diamondbacks -116 v. Tigers | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona and Detroit return to action this afternoon following an 11-6 Arizona victory on Friday night. The game was 2-2 after 6 innings, and then the Diamondbacks blew the doors open with 7 runs in the 7th. The Diamondbacks are leading the NL West as we are only a couple weeks away from the halfway point in the season. The pitching matchup is Ryne Nelson versus Matthew Boyd. Boyd may be the slightly better pitcher, but Arizona is also good against lefties. Both pitchers have been inconsistent over the past month, and both have ERAs above 5.00. I do not expect either one to be lights out. The difference is going to be the hot Arizona offense. They have been hitting the ball very well lately. | |||||||
06-09-23 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Tigers | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers for a quick 3-game series. These teams are on opposite tracks lately as the Tigers have lost 6 in a row while the Diamondbacks have won 8 of their last 10 and lead the NL West. Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks and he’s having another great season as he’s 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He’s tasked with shutting down a Tigers’ lineup that has been cold recently. The Tigers have scored only 8 runs over their 6-game losing streak and were nearly no-hit yesterday. The Tigers are dead last in the MLB in batting average and have 18 fewer runs than the next-worst team in that department. Michael Lorenzen will start for the Tigers, and he has also had a great season to this point. Lorenzen is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Lorenzen allowed just 1 run in his last start but couldn’t get any run support as the Tigers were unable to win. Arizona ranks 6th in the league in runs scored and is dangerous from any part of their lineup. Lorenzen could pitch great and allow only a couple of runs, but Detroit has a weak bullpen and just a couple of runs could easily be enough for Kelly against the Tigers’ lineup. | |||||||
06-09-23 | Rangers +147 v. Rays | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two teams have jumped out to the front of the league in almost every offensive category, including ranking 1st and 2nd in runs per game. While the Rangers have been surging in the last few weeks, the Rays have steadily remained one of the best teams in the game since Opening Day. Regardless of the outcome of the series, baseball fans are in for a treat with these two lineups facing off. On the mound for the visitors is Andrew Heaney, a lefty that has come into his own in the last few weeks. He was added to be a 4th arm behind Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray, and little did we know that they would turn into one of the best rotations in baseball. Heaney finished May with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP which included several impressive outings against the Orioles, Mariners and Rockies. And to little surprise, he’s been better away from Globe Life Field, which has seen a lot of high-scoring games, as he’s posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 4 starts on the road. It’s truly impressive how the Rays have been able to remain unfazed despite the numerous injuries to their starting rotation. At the moment, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Josh Fleming and Shane Baz are all sidelined with injuries, so Tyler Glasnow’s return couldn’t have come at a better time. The right-hander has made 2 starts this season and has allowed 4 runs and 9 hits along with 14 strikeouts against the Dodgers and Red Sox. However, it’s concerning that Glasnow doesn’t completely seem like himself yet. His fastball velocity is down nearly 2 MPH from his average and his slider’s RPM are down a bit too. | |||||||
06-08-23 | White Sox v. Yankees -128 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox turn to veteran RHP Mike Clevinger for Game 2 of today's doubleheader after Wednesday’s game was postponed due to poor air quality as a result of the Eastern Canada wildfires. The right-hander Clevinger has a dismal 2-2 road record with a 5.60 ERA across 27 1/3 innings in 5 starts away from home, and he has a shaky 1.51 WHIP. Clevinger has allowed 17 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings in his last 4 road outings, too. The Yankees counter with RHP Randy Vasquez, who allowed 2 earned runs, 4 hits and 3 walks with 6 strikeouts across 4 2/3 innings in a loss against the San Diego Padres May 26 in his only previous outing. The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Giolito held them hitless for 6 innings on Tuesday night, but expect the offense to break out in a big way after being held down, especially after getting a full day of unexpected rest. | |||||||
06-08-23 | Orioles -104 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles are 5-1 in their last six Thursday games and the Brewers are 1-5 in their last six Thursday games. The Orioles are 5-1 in their last six during game three of a series, 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 7-3 in their last ten road games. The Brewers slash .224 .304/.399/.703 at home and did not perform as a first-place team should in May (.219/.291/.369/.660). Their June splits aren't any good, either (.205/.303/.327/.630). While they have managed to win five of their previous six, I don't anticipate them going on a much longer winning streak. The Orioles boast the second-best winning percentage on the road (64.5%). Thursday's starter Bradish has been a reliable arm in the O's rotation, holding half his opponents to one or no runs scored. Against a Milwaukee team that's 25th in scoring, 26th in OPS, and 27th in batting average, I'm confident he will have a quality start. | |||||||
06-07-23 | Cubs v. Angels -136 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only four guys from this Chicago team have seen Jaime Barria, combining for four hits (one double) in 11 at-bats. On the other side, the current Angels are only 9-for-50 against Jameson Taillon, but four of those nine hits went yard. Shohei Ohtani is 2-for-8 with a couple of dingers, Hunter Renfroe is 4-for-12 with a homer, and Jared Walsh is 2-for-8 with a round-tripper and 3 RBI against Taillon. Jaime Barria has pitched very well so far this season. It’s hard to trust the Angels’ bullpen, but the Cubs’ relievers haven’t been at their best either, notching a 2-10 record with a 5.19 ERA in May and a 4.60 ERA and 5.94 FIP in the last ten days and 29.1 innings of work. Hereof, I’m going with the Angels, looking for their offense to make a difference. | |||||||
06-07-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -134 | 1-0 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers have won six of their last seven games and eight of their last 10 home games. They have the highest-scoring offense in the league and they’ve been on a roll in recent games, scoring 32 runs in their last three home games. Expect them to continue playing well offensively in this game because they’ve done a great job against right-handers this season and Flaherty has been shaky on the mound on the road, giving up 13 runs in his last three road starts. He gave up two runs in his lone start against the Rangers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games and six of their last eight road games. They aren’t playing well offensively and scored only seven runs in their last three road games. Things won’t get easier for them in this game because Gray has done a great job on the mound for the Rangers and has won five of his last six starts while giving up only three runs. He gave up one run in his last two home starts. | |||||||
06-06-23 | Orioles +114 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Baltimore Orioles will be out to continue their road success behind Kyle Gibson when they face the Milwaukee Brewers today in the opener of a three-game series. Gibson (7-3, 3.89 ERA) will be opposed by Freddy Peralta (5-5, 4.62) in a matchup of right-handers. The Brewers lost 2-0 at Cincinnati on Monday after winning the first three games of the series. Milwaukee managed just one hit in six innings against Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott, who was making his major league debut. Milwaukee is 28-4 this season when scoring four runs or more, 4-24 when generating three runs or fewer. Gibson has won his past three starts, allowing four runs in 19 2/3 innings for a 1.83 ERA over that stretch. He has not given up a home run in his past four starts and has served up just six all season. Peralta has been inconsistent, losing three of his past four starts. He lasted six innings in his latest outing despite giving up three runs on a pair of first-inning homers in a 3-1 loss at Toronto on Thursday. | |||||||
06-06-23 | Royals v. Marlins -150 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is a much better-hitting team at home this season, hitting .267 in front of the home crowd including 76 extra-base hits. Starter Luzardo is also much better in front of the home crowd, despite his rough outing in his last start in Miami. His ERA is nearly a run lower at home while his K/9 rate jumps up by a strikeout per game. He faces a Royals' lineup that is hitting just .226 on the road this season and .248 vs. left-handed pitching. Greinke is winless on the road this season and his ERA jumps up by nearly a run and a half away from Kauffman Stadium. The Marlins’ offense is hot, and that is a big deal for a team that was expected to have to scratch for runs and rely on its pitching staff all season. | |||||||
06-05-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers -129 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units St. Louis has struggled of late after seemingly righting the ship during the early part of May. The Cardinals stand 10 games under the .500 mark and one has to seriously wonder if John Mozeliak will be a seller at the trade deadline. Wainwright has sputtered in his limited action this season, posting an ERA north of six while averaging just over five innings a start. Texas is a dangerous team as they can win low-scoring games, as we saw in Friday’s opener with the Mariners, and slugfests. Perez has played with fire at times this season, giving up 74 hits in his 61 innings of work, but with the Rangers sporting a run differential of +143 entering Sunday, it’s clear that the bats can make up for any shortcomings on the mound. Give Texas the upper hand here as they prevail at home. | |||||||
06-05-23 | Brewers +112 v. Reds | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Brewers are playing better in recent games and this pitching matchup favors them. Brewers’ starter Julio Teheran is making a comeback and so far he looks great, limiting the Giants to one run and the Blue Jays to one run (zero earned) in his two outings spanning 11 innings this season. The Reds have Andrew Abbott making his MLB debut in this game. I usually stay away from pitchers making their debut, especially considering the strength of the Milwaukee bats in this series. They have accumulated 20 runs in the first three games of this series, winning all three decisions. The Reds have hit a bump and are struggling at home where they are 1-5 in their last six games. | |||||||
06-05-23 | Astros +110 v. Blue Jays | 11-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros are scheduled to start right-hander Brandon Bielak (2-2, 3.19 ERA). It will be his first career appearance against Toronto. Bielak has won two of his past three starts, including a 5-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. He gave up one run on three hits over 5 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays are scheduled to start right-hander Alek Manoah (1-6, 5.46). In his one previous start against the Astros, which came on April 23, 2022, Manoah tossed six innings of two-run ball and picked up the win. Manoah, whose only win this season came on April 5, has lost his last two starts, allowing seven runs, six earned, over a combined seven innings. The Astros are 18-6 in their last 24 games since starting the season 17-18. They are also 8-3 in their last 11 road games. | |||||||
06-04-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -145 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miller has pitched pretty well in his first handful of starts in the majors but he was lit up by the Yankees in his last outing. Facing a team with a prolific lineup with plenty of power bats may be a lot to ask of a young guy that hadn’t pitched above Double-A prior to being called up to the majors. Eovaldi has been rolling this season and went 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA with nine walks and 31 strikeouts over 37.2 innings in five starts in the month of May. Opposing hitters posted a measly .178/.232/.264 slash line in those outings. After seeing how Seattle sputtered against an equally hot pitcher in Gray on Friday night, you have to give the advantage to the hosts here as the Rangers earn the win to take the series. | |||||||
06-04-23 | Angels v. Astros -144 | 2-1 | Loss | -144 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels have been roughed up in Houston this weekend, as the Astros have won the first three games of this American League West Division series, while outscoring the Halos by a 20-10 margin. Even RHP Shohei Ohtani was unable to pitch them to victory on Friday night. Now, the Halos turn to RHP Griffin Canning to try and salvage something in this series. He is 4-2 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across eight starts. However, he also has a dismal 7.90 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in three daytime starts across 13 2/3 innings, while teams are hitting .291 against him. The Astros are starting to round into championship form after a slow start. Houston is 18-5 in the past 23 games dating back to May 9, and the hot streak started when the team visited the Angels in Anaheim from May 8-10. The Astros are 5-1 in the past six games during Game 4 of a series, while Houston is 38-14 in the past 52 games inside the AL West. In addition, the Astros have been stacking wins, going 11-3 in the past 14 games following a win, while cashing in 11 of the past 16 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. | |||||||
06-04-23 | Rays v. Red Sox +112 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tampa Bay Rays aren’t nearly as dangerous on the road where they are only two games above the .500 mark. They lost two of three to the Cubs prior to this series and lost game one of Saturday's DH. The Red Sox are three games above .500 at home. Rays’ starter Taj Bradley is an inexperienced rookie. The right-hander does not go deep into games, last 5.1 or fewer innings in all but one start this season, and the Rays bullpen is actually a bit of a weakness, ranking 22nd in the big leagues with a 4.32 ERA to go with a 1.34 WHIP. Tampa Bay has lost in each of Bradley's last three starts while Boston has won in four of Houck's five home starts this season. | |||||||
06-03-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers +115 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both Yankees and Dodgers have hit the righties well in the last couple of weeks (New York 110 wRC+, Los Angeles 116 wRC+). On paper, the Yankees have a huge advantage on the mound, but I’m backing the Dodgers to come out on top and eventually hand Gerrit Cole his first loss in 2023. Cole has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 11 runs, including four home runs, over 11 innings. He also has been more hittable on the road this season. Some of the Dodgers own a strong record against Cole. Mookie Betts is 7-for-14, Freddie Freeman is 6-for-17 with three doubles, and David Peralta is 5-for-12 with three doubles. JD Martinez is only 8-for-40 but has slugged three doubles and a couple of home runs off Cole, who struggled a lot in his last two outings. | |||||||
06-03-23 | Tigers v. White Sox -153 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With one big swing of the bat, the Detroit Tigers finally solved Dylan Cease last weekend. They'll have to face their nemesis once again in the middle game of a three-game series in Chicago on Saturday afternoon. The White Sox right-hander is 10-1 with a 2.09 ERA in 14 career starts against the Tigers. He has also recorded 96 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings in those outings. Cease had three straight quality starts prior to his rough outing on Sunday and has been a better pitcher at home this season than on the road. The White Sox have hit the ball better at home this season and have improved overall as a lineup in the month of May after struggling throughout April at the plate. The return of Elroy Jimenez will further help the White Sox cause and Cease should thrive back at home against a Tigers' team that is still among the worst overall hitting clubs in baseball. | |||||||
05-29-23 | Rays -124 v. Cubs | 0-1 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are more than capable of putting up runs but the Rays have been the better team when it comes to holding the opposition in check. Bradley has pitched well in his first taste of the majors as he is up as a matter of necessity with Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen on the shelf. Stroman turned in his best start of the year against the Mets in his last start but has been spotty against Tampa Bay in his career going 5-8 with a 5.04 ERA in 16 career starts against them. He yielded eight runs (seven earned) on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-2 home loss to Tampa Bay last season. This Rays team is loaded with talent and confidence, which is something that can’t be overlooked by any stretch of the imagination. Look for Tampa Bay to come into the Windy City and take the opening game of this series thanks to their ability to come up with clutch hits, something the Cubs have lacked in all season. | |||||||
05-29-23 | Guardians v. Orioles -135 | 5-0 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles had a rough weekend against a powerful Rangers lineup but things should quickly turn around for the Orioles facing the light-hitting Guardians. Orioles starter Wells has thrived at home this season with an ERA of just 2.64 and faces a Guardians team that is last in baseball in runs per game and just 28th in batting average. The Orioles, meanwhile, are hitting .260 vs. left-handed pitching this season and .264 during the day. The Orioles love to run, ranking third in baseball in stolen bases, and Cleveland is just 20th in the league in throwing out runners. Expect the Orioles to grind out at-bats and run early and often against the Guardians on Monday afternoon to generate runs. | |||||||
05-28-23 | Giants -122 v. Brewers | 5-7 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers' struggling offense doesn't get any favors today against Giants starter Alex Cobb, who is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA, fourth best in all of baseball. Cobb has started 10 games, totaling 58 innings and striking out 52 while walking just 14. He started against Milwaukee on May 6 and dominated, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing five hits and striking out five to pick up the victory. He's 2-1 with an 0.64 ERA in four starts against the Brewers. Cobb will oppose against Brewers starter Colin Rea, who is 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA, but picked up his first win as a starter since 2016 in his last outing against Houston. The right-hander entered the rotation when Brandon Woodruff went down with injury in April and will make his eighth start and ninth appearance. His last start was arguably his best, pitching 5 1/3 shutout innings against the reigning World Series champions while striking out four. The Giants have had the Brewers' number this season, currently 5-1 against the NL Central leaders after winning two of three in the first week of May in San Francisco. | |||||||
05-28-23 | Nationals -102 v. Royals | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Nationals franchise, it's a fortuitous matchup as they have won 15 of 20 previous games against the Royals, including a 5-1 mark as the Montreal Expos from 2002 to 2004. Kansas City has never won a series against Nationals. The Nationals won 12-10 on Friday and 4-2 on Saturday, and they're looking for their first three-game series sweep since June 14-16, 2021, against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore (3-3, 3.88 ERA) has never faced the Royals nor any of their current hitters. The Royals starter will be lefty Daniel Lynch in his first start of the season after a left shoulder strain sent him to the injured list in March. Over the last three games the Nationals have rallied from deficits to score 20 runs in the sixth inning or later. Royals relievers have allowed 31 runs over 50 1/3 innings pitched in 11 losses during the past 14 games, and have also allowed 12 runners inherited from starters to score. In their last five losses, the Kansas City bullpen has given up 22 runs in 18 1/3 innings. | |||||||
05-27-23 | Phillies v. Braves -129 | 2-1 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia Phillies are stumbling, winning only four out of their last ten games. The squad was swept in their previous road series by the Giants and was dealt a series loss by the Diamondbacks this week. They have only won 10 of their 27 road games on the season. The Atlanta Braves have won two of their last three series. Phillies starter Zack Wheeler hasn’t been nearly as strong as last season. The veteran has posted a subpar 4.44 ERA in his four outings this month and the Phillies have lost in three of his last four starts. While Braves’ starter Charlie Morton struggled last time out, the right-hander has been solid, conceding two or fewer runs in two of his last three starts. | |||||||
05-27-23 | Giants +104 v. Brewers | 3-1 | Win | 104 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams figure to need all hands on deck for a pitchers' duel Saturday between right-handed staff aces Corbin Burnes (4-4, 3.97 ERA) of the Brewers and Logan Webb (3-5, 2.91) of the Giants. The All-Star hopefuls will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. Both pitched brilliantly in their first encounter when the Giants won 2-1 in 10 innings in Milwaukee in August 2021. Burnes limited the visitors to one run and four hits in seven innings, while Webb was nearly a mirror image, allowing one run and three hits in six innings. Burnes not only will be facing a hot club today, but will take the mound riding a two-game losing streak in which he was roughed up for eight runs and 15 hits over 11 innings by the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros.The 28-year-old began May with a 6-4 loss at San Francisco in which he served up a first-inning home run to J.D. Davis among five runs allowed in six innings. Webb has been one of the best pitchers in the National League in May, going 2-0 with a 1.30 ERA over four starts. He has nothing to show for brilliant outings his last two times out, limiting the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins to a total of one run in 13 innings in 2-1 and 1-0 defeats. Webb has never lost to the Brewers, going 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $529 |
Jim Feist | $502 |
Matt Fargo | $451 |
Rocky Atkinson | $438 |
ProSportsPicks | $435 |
Marc Lawrence | $368 |
Tim Michael | $206 |
Dan Kaiser | $205 |
William Burns | $175 |
Kyle Hunter | $70 |