Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-18-21 | Pelicans +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the New York Knicks. It's often said that "all good things must come to an end," and that's the case today with the Knicks ATS win streak. Dating back to April 3, New York has covered its last eight games. But New York is a horrid 0-12 ATS if it was on a 7-game (or better) ATS win streak, and wasn't getting 6+ points in its current game. This is also a rematch of a game won by the Knicks, 116-106, in New Orleans this past Wednesday. But New York is a wallet-breaking 34.6% ATS over the last 31 years as a favorite of more than 2 points against a non-conference foe it upset in the previous meeting earlier in the season. Finally, New Orleans comes into this game off back to back upset defeats. However, the Pelicans are 8-1 ATS their last 9 off two straight upset losses. Take the points with New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. This will be Miami's final game in its 4-game road trip. And, after losing back to back games against Phoenix and Denver, Miami will no doubt be happy to play the NBA's worst team tonight. Minnesota has won just 14 of its 56 games this season. And, since 1990, losing teams are a poor 43% ATS as home dogs in non-division games vs. rested, winning teams off back to back losses. Additionally, Miami is 25-6 ATS away from home off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the Heat. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-15-21 | Bucks -4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 120-109 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks. Giannis Antetokounmpo has just been upgraded to 'probable,' so we'll put the trigger on the Bucks. Both teams do come into this game on win streaks. The Bucks routed the Magic by 37, and the Timberwolves by 25. Meanwhile, Atlanta's won its last three in a row, including back to back upset wins over Charlotte and Toronto in their last two. Generally speaking, I like to go against teams off back to back upset wins, and especially if they're matched up against foes also in good form, off back to back wins, themselves. Dating back to 1990, our teams off back to back upset wins are a poor 166-228 ATS. That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight. Nor does the fact that the Hawks have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings, straight-up, vs. Milwaukee. And Atlanta's only win was by a single point, 136-135, in overtime. Finally, Atlanta's a poor 20-39 ATS as home dogs off a win, if they're matched up against a non-division foe. Lay the points with Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-14-21 | Mavs -1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavs come into tonight's game off back to back home losses, including an 18-point blowout at the hands of the Philly 76ers. I love Dallas to rebound off those defeats, and get the W tonight at Memphis. Indeed, the Mavs are 24-6 straight-up, and 23-6-1 ATS their last 30 as road favorites of less than 7 points, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off back to back losses. Even better: Dallas is a terrific 77-39-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points. And it's 116-71 ATS off a loss, if its opponent was off a straight-up win. Take the Mavericks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Hawks v. Raptors -1 | Top | 108-103 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors. It has just been announced that Trae Young will not play for Atlanta, so that's enough for us to pull the trigger on the Raptors. Take Toronto tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie | |||||||
04-12-21 | Rockets +13 v. Suns | Top | 120-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns. We played on Houston last Monday vs. these Suns, and got the cash when the Rockets lost by just three points, 133-130, as a 14-point home underdog. And we also played on the Suns in their last game, which was an easy win for us vs. the Wizards (134-106). Tonight, we'll once again take Houston as a double-digit underdog, as it comes into this game off back to back blowout losses, at the Clippers, and at the Warriors. But Houston is a solid 91-59 ATS on the road as an underdog off back to back ATS losses, including 39-17 ATS when playing with revenge. And Phoenix is a horrid 9-29 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points, if it was off a win, in which it covered by 9+ points. And the Suns are also 0-7 ATS their last seven vs. Houston, if the Suns were off a double-digit win. Take the Rockets + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-11-21 | Bucks -8.5 v. Magic | Top | 124-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Orlando Magic. Milwaukee's banged-up right now, as many key players (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton) missed its last game -- a 127-119 loss to Charlotte. The good news tonight is that Milwaukee should still have its way with the Magic, regardless of which Bucks players suit up for this game. Orlando's lost four straight, and 17 of 21. And it's an awful 16-33 ATS its last 49 vs. .595 (or better) foes. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 34-17 ATS vs. sub-.650 foes, if Milwaukee lost its previous game. Finally, over the last 31 years, road favorites with a win percentage greater than .600, have covered 65% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a non-division foe. Lay the points with Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-11-21 | Hawks -2 v. Hornets | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte. These two teams are surprisingly having strong seasons, as they sit in the 4th (Charlotte) and 5th (Atlanta) spots in the Eastern conference. So, this game is critical for playoff positioning. We'll take the Hawks, as they fall into a 145-66 ATS revenge system of mine, after losing, 113-105, to the Hornets in the last meeting. Additionally, the Hawks are 11-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a road loss. And, since 1990, they've cashed 67% as road favorites vs. winning teams, if Atlanta was playing with revenge from an upset loss. Lay the points with Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-10-21 | Wizards v. Suns -11.5 | Top | 106-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Washington Wizards. Yesterday, the Wizards upset Golden State, 110-107, as a 4.5-point road underdog. But off that upset win, we'll fade Washington in the Valley of the Sun tonight, as Phoenix is playing with revenge from a 128-107 upset loss to Washington earlier this season. The Suns are 33-18 ATS this season -- an NBA best -- and they're doing their best work at home, where they've covered the spread by 3.37 points per game. The Suns are 15-5 ATS their last 20 at home, and they also fall into a 58-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .673 (or better) teams playing with revenge from losses by more than 20 points. Finally, since 1997, Phoenix has covered 63% at home off a loss vs. foes off upset road wins. Take Phoenix to blow out Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-07-21 | Grizzlies v. Hawks -2 | Top | 131-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies and Hawks both played last night. Memphis went into Miami, and upset the Heat, 124-112, for its 3rd straight win (and 5th straight cover). Meanwhile, Atlanta defeated New Orleans here, at home, 123-107, for its fourth straight win and cover. We'll go against Memphis tonight, as this will be its 3rd road game in four nights. And NBA teams that were playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, have covered just 37% over the past 31 seasons if they were off two wins, and matched up against an opponent with a better W/L record, which was off back to back SU/ATS wins. The Hawks are a super 105-56-4 ATS at home in the regular season vs. foes off 3+ wins, including 31-8-2 ATS its last 41 if its opponent was unrested. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-06-21 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia. These two teams met earlier this season in Philadelphia for a back-to-back set. And the 76ers won each of those two games, by 8 and 12 points, respectively. But this game is in Boston, and we'll take the homestanding Celtics to avenge those defeats. Boston comes into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Houston (118-102) and Charlotte (116-86), and has gone 5-2 ATS its last seven. That bodes well for Brad Stevens men tonight, as they're 56-23 ATS off a home blowout win by more than 20 points. And they're 32-12 ATS at home when not favored by 3+ points, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last five to the point spread. And the 76ers are a poor 8-22-1 ATS as road favorites vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, including 0-7-1 ATS if their foe was playing with revenge. Take the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-05-21 | Suns v. Rockets +11 | Top | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Rockets are 2-25 straight-up, and 5-22 ATS over their last 27 games. Their problems started when forward Christian Wood sustained an injury in the February 4 game at Memphis, and the Rockets lost their next 20 games. But Wood returned to action on March 17. And, then, over the next week, Houston made roster moves to bring in Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, D.J. Augustin, and D.J. Wilson. And it is now playing better basketball, as it's 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS its last seven, and has "only" been outscored by an average of 4.42 ppg over this stretch. Tonight, Houston has been installed as a huge home underdog against the Western conference's #2 seed, the Phoenix Suns, who are on a 5-game winning streak. This is a letdown spot, as the Suns blew out Oklahoma City by 37 points on Friday, and have games against the two teams (Jazz, Clippers) that sit above and below them in the standings, on Wednesday and Thursday. We'll take Houston tonight, as double-digit home underdogs, with a win percentage less than .285, off a straight-up loss, have gone 140-73 ATS vs. .630 (or better) foes that are off a straight-up win. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-04-21 | Warriors -2 v. Hawks | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Atlanta. The Warriors were blasted, 130-77, by the Toronto Raptors on Friday. But off that loss, we'll take Golden State to rebound this evening against the Hawks. The good news for Steve Kerr's troops is that superstar Steph Curry will be back on the court tonight. Curry has missed six of the Warriors' last eight games, due to a tailbone contusion, but was upgraded to 'probable' on Saturday afternoon. As faithful followers know, I love to play on teams off big losses. And they don't get much worse than 53 points. Indeed, NBA favorites (or PK) off losses by more than 40 points have cashed 68.1% over the last 31 seasons! That bodes well for Golden State on Sunday night. As does the fact that the Warriors will be playing this game with revenge from a 124-108 loss earlier this season in San Francisco. And Golden State is a super 51-25 ATS on the road when playing with revenge. Meanwhile, the Hawks have covered just 34 of 95 as underdogs against rested, revenge-minded foes that they beat by more than 10 points earlier in the season (and just 14 of 55 if their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss). Take the Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Bucks v. Kings +3 | Top | 129-128 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. Last night, the Kings were blown out here, at home, by the injury riddled Los Angeles Lakers. Los Angeles played without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and newly-signed Andre Drummond, which made Sacramento a 5-point home favorite. No matter. The Lakers won without their stars, 115-94. Perhaps Sacramento thought it was going to have it easy, and lost focus? But, as luck would have it, tonight they will face Milwaukee without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, with last night's result fresh in the minds of the Kings, I fully expect them to NOT take the Bucks lightly tonight. Instead, I look for Sacramento to be focused, with an eye toward redeeming itself off its 21-point home loss last night. The Bucks come into this game off back to back road wins. But, since 1999, Milwaukee's covered just 38% on the road off back to back road wins. Take Sacramento. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Magic v. Jazz -15 | Top | 91-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Orlando. Will this finally be the year that Utah wins an NBA title? The Jazz certainly are playing like it. They're 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency; 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency; and #1 (by a mile) in Net adjusted efficiency. Indeed, the only other teams that rank among the top 10 in both adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency are the Suns and Bucks. But they're 3.75 and 4.24 points, respectively, behind Utah in Net adjusted efficiency. Not surprisingly, the Jazz are also doing great "in Vegas," as they're #2 in the NBA with a .625 ATS win percentage (30-18 ATS), trailing only the Phoenix Suns (32-16 ATS). Utah did, however, fail to cover the point spread in each of its two previous games. But in the 2nd half of the NBA season (Game 42 forward), NBA teams with a .625 (or better) ATS win percentage, off back to back ATS losses, have rebounded to cover the spread 72.4% over the last 31 years when they were playing at home. Even better: Utah's 17-4 ATS its last 21 at home; 8-2 ATS its last 10 at home when playing without rest; and 151-109 ATS at home off back to back ATS losses. Lay the points with the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-03-21 | UCLA +14.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Gonzaga. I think it's safe to say that we should throw out UCLA's last four Pac-12 games (all losses) to end its conference season. And that's because Mick Cronin's men have been a completely different animal in this tourney. They've defeated Michigan State (86-80), BYU (73-62), Abilene Christian (67-47), Alabama (88-78) and Michigan (51-49). But look more closely at their wins over Michigan State and Alabama, and you'll notice that both went into overtime. In regulation, UCLA held Michigan State to 77 and Alabama to 65. Thus, in this tournament, the Bruins have given up an average of 60 points per game in regulation. That's impressive, in and of itself. But then consider the teams that UCLA has faced. Their opponents included Michigan, which ranks 9th in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency rankings; BYU, which ranks 20th; and Alabama, which ranks 29th. Yet through regulation time, UCLA held Michigan to its lowest offensive output of the season, BYU and Abilene Christian to their 2nd-lowest, and Alabama to its 5th-lowest. Certainly, Gonzaga is another animal, altogether. The Bulldogs rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and have yet to lose a game. Indeed, Gonzaga has only played one team which came within single-digits (West Virginia, 87-82). Still, I believe the points will be valuable today. And, for technical support, consider that NCAA Tourney favorites of more than 10 points, off back to back double-digit SU/ATS wins, are a horrible 8-32 ATS against foes seeded #15 (or better). Finally, in the NCAA's Final Four, favorites of more than eight points have gone 1-7 ATS since 1991, with only North Carolina (-10, 83-66) covering against Syracuse in 2016. Take the points with the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Houston +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over the Baylor Bears. The Cougars were an ATM Machine in Vegas during the regular season, as they went 18-8 ATS (.692 ATS pct.), and covered the point spread by an average of 5.32 ppg. Those two marks ranked #8 and #4 of the 68 teams that qualified for the NCAA tournament (in contrast, Baylor ranked #25 and #35 in those metrics). It took a last-second three-point shot by Oregon State to hand the Cougars a point spread defeat in their previous game. But Houston is 8-0 ATS its last eight, and 28-8 ATS its last 36 off a point spread defeat! The Cougars are also 13-2 ATS their last 15 as an underdog of less than 7 points, while Baylor is a wallet-busting 10-19 ATS vs. .866 (or better) teams off an ATS loss. Finally, Houston gives up just 57.5 points per game, and ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency in Ken Pomeroy's NCAA basketball ratings (in contrast, Baylor ranks 28th). And the Cougars also prefer to play at a much slower pace than Baylor, as Houston's games average just 134.1 ppg -- much less than the Bears' 148.5 ppg. That bodes well for the underdog, as in the semi-final round of the NCAA Tourney, teams with defenses that give up 63 or less points have covered 73.6% if they weren't favored by 4+ points! Moreover, underdogs seeded #5 (or better), that average 134.5 (or less) points per game, have covered 61.9%, including 8-2 ATS in the semi-final round. We'll take the points with the defensive-minded underdog in this game. Take Houston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
04-01-21 | 76ers -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Cleveland. The Sixers will once again play without center Joel Embiid tonight. But Cleveland's injury problems are even worse. We'll lay the points with Philly tonight, as it's playing with double-revenge from two losses to Cleveland earlier this season, including a 112-109 defeat as an 11.5-point favorite in the last meeting. The good news for Philadelphia in this game is that winning NBA teams are 93-65 ATS when laying more than 6 points against a losing team, if our winning team was playing with double revenge. Even better: if our revenger was favored by 8+ points in the previous meeting, then our 93-65 stat zooms to 28-10 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven. It's true that Cleveland does come into this game off an embarrassing 39-point loss at Utah. But the Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS their last 11, and 74-125-4 ATS their last 203 off a 17-point (or worse) defeat. Take Philadelphia minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-31-21 | Kings v. Spurs -2 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento. These two teams met on Monday, here in the Alamo City. And the Kings blew out the Spurs, 132-115. We'll lay the points with the Spurs in this rematch, as the Spurs are 29-12 ATS in the regular season at home, when playing with revenge. Even better: the Spurs are 64-27 ATS off a loss by 15+ points, if they weren't an underdog of more than 2 points in their current game, and their opponent wasn't off a SU/ATS loss. And, finally, when the Spurs have played an opponent who the Spurs lost to in their previous game, they've gone 48-24-3 ATS if they were favored (or PK'em) in that next game. Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-30-21 | USC +9 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans + the points over Gonzaga. This season, I've largely avoided playing on or against Gonzaga. I only played on them once -- and won when they blew out Norfolk State in the opening round of this Tournament. And I also only played against them once this season (and lost), as I didn't think there were many teams that had the right mix of players to compete with Gonzaga. But USC is one of the teams that CAN compete with the Bulldogs. So, we'll grab the points with the Trojans tonight. For technical support, consider that, over the last 22 seasons, in the ELITE EIGHT round of the tournament, .700 (or better) teams seeded #4 (or worse) are a perfect 16-0-1 ATS vs. .800 (or better) opponents! And, even better, USC comes into this game off 3 dominant wins over Drake (72-56), Kansas (85-51) and Oregon (82-68). And their last two games were quite impressive, as they covered the point spread in each by double digits (Kansas +32.5; Oregon +11.5). And that leads us to our second angle, which is 20-0-1 ATS, which plays on underdogs off 2 Tourney wins, in which they covered the spread by 28+ points combined, provided their opponent was off an ATS win, but didn't also cover its two previous games by 28+ points combined. Take USC + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-30-21 | Hornets -2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Washington. The Wizards pulled off an upset, 132-124, last night, as a 7-point home underdog vs. Indiana. Unfortunately, unrested teams off an upset home win, in which they scored 130+ points, have covered just 28% over the past 31 seasons. That doesn't bode well for Washington tonight. Nor does the fact that Charlotte blew it out by a 119-97 score when these two Southeast division rivals met last month. And Washington is a poor 16-36 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat when it wasn't getting 4+ points in the current game. Take Charlotte. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas +8 v. Baylor | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Baylor. We played on the 'under' in Arkansas' previous game (a 72-70 win over Oral Roberts), which was our Sweet 16 Total of the Year. That game easily stayed under the total of 156.5, but Arkansas failed to cover the 11.5-point spread. Baylor did cover the spread in its win over Villanova, but it took a furious rush in the 2nd half for the Bears to surpass the 7.5-point spread. Off those two results, we'll take the points with the underdog Razorbacks tonight. Indeed, in the NCAA tournament, it's been very profitable to back teams off ATS losses in the Tourney, if their opponent wasn't off an ATS defeat in its previous game, provided our team wasn't laying more than 1 points. Dating back 24 years, this angle has cashed 67.2% of the time. That bodes well for Arkansas tonight. As does the fact that #1 seeds, off a double-digit win, and ATS win, have covered just 8 of 31 Elite Eight round games. Take Arkansas + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-29-21 | Grizzlies -5 v. Rockets | Top | 120-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Houston. The Rockets won for just the 2nd time over their last 24 games when the upset Minnesota, 129-107, on Saturday. But off that upset win, we'll fade Houston tonight vs. Memphis, as sub-.300 home underdogs have covered just 28% over the last 31 years off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a division opponent off a SU/ATS road loss. Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-28-21 | UCLA v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 88-78 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over UCLA. Last Monday, we played on each of these two teams, and got the $$$ with UCLA vs. Abilene Christian, and Alabama vs. Maryland. At the start of this tournament, our projected final four was Baylor, Gonzaga, Alabama and West Virginia (with Baylor defeating Gonzaga in the final). We now have three teams remaining after WVU was knocked out by Syracuse last weekend. We'll look for Alabama to continue its strong play on this Sunday, as it comes into this Sweet 16 match-up on an 8-game win streak. In its last game, it scored 96 points, which rated as the highest amount registered by an NCAA Tourney in the 2nd round over the last 10 seasons. And NCAA Tourney teams are 96-68-2 ATS as a favorite of -6 (or more) points after scoring 88 or more in their previous game. That bodes well for the Crimson Tide on Sunday. As does the fact that teams seeded #11 (or worse) have covered just 3 of 16 Tourney games from the Sweet 16 round forward, if they were priced from +2 to +7.5 points. Finally, UCLA is a wallet-busting 1-10 ATS its last 11 games in the Sweet 16. Take Alabama to blow out the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-28-21 | Florida State +2 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Michigan. Both of these teams come into this game off impressive wins. Michigan fought off a game LSU team to win, 86-78, as a 4-point favorite, while Florida State blew out Colorado, 71-53, as a 1-point favorite. The Wolverines are a #1 seed, but they're only favored by a bucket today against the #4-seeded Seminoles. And this "short line" spells trouble for Juwan Howard's men, as #1 seeds are a poor 32% ATS in the Tourney's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds since 2000, if they weren't favored by more than 4 points, including 2-10 ATS if their opponent won their game by more than 12 points. Florida State is 4-1-1 ATS its last 6 as an NCAA Tourney underdog. And, three years ago, as a #9-seed, it gave then-No. 3-seeded Michigan everything it could handle in a 4-point loss in the Elite 8 round. I look for FSU to pull the upset today. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Sunday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Yesterday we played on both Memphis (over Colorado State) and Mississippi State (over Louisiana Tech), and got the $$$ with each of them to move our mark this NIT season to 3-0-1 (or possibly 4-0). In this championship game, we'll lay the points with the Tigers, as they fall into two of my better NIT Tourney systems, with records of 58-33, 24-11; and also a general post-season Tourney system which is 161-96-4 ATS since 1990. Additionally, as I mentioned yesterday, Memphis is (now) 14-2 ATS its last 16 games, and 22-12 its last 34 post-season games. Meanwhile, Miss State is an awful 7-23 ATS off an upset win, if it wasn't getting more than 5 points in its current game (including 1-11 ATS if it won its previous game by double-digits). Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -10 | Top | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis. These two teams met here in Salt Lake City last night, and the Jazz won, 117-114, as a 10-point home favorite, but failed to cover the spread. But that game was an outlier for this Memphis team, as it had been 0-12 ATS its previous 12 road games when getting more than 4 points. I look for a reversion to form tonight, and for Utah to blow out Memphis. The Jazz are 12-1 ATS at home off back to back wins, and they're also 196-142-7 ATS at home vs. unrested foes when priced from -2 to -15 points. Take the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Rockets +5 v. Wolves | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Minnesota. These two teams met last night here in the Twin Cities, and Minnesota emerged victorious with a 107-101 victory as a 4.5-point home favorite. We'll take the Rockets in the rematch, as .400 (or worse) teams have only covered the spread 33% of the time in back to back meetings since 1990, if they won the first meeting. And Houston's 79-38 ATS as a road underdog off back to back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up. Take the Rockets. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Mississippi State -1.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 84-62 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Louisiana Tech. Mississippi State won a thriller in the semi-final round on Thursday, when it hit a 3-pointer to garner a 68-67 victory against Richmond (though it failed to cover the 4.5-point spread). Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, knocked out fellow Conference USA member Western Kentucky, 72-65, as a 1-point favorite. These two teams actually met last season, and Louisiana Tech went into Starkville and upset Miss State, 74-67, as a 7.5-point road dog. But that sets up our play on this Saturday, as Mississippi State falls into 37-20 and 76-32 ATS revenge systems of mine. Additionally, Mississippi State is an awesome 73-30 ATS when playing with revenge if it is not off a SU/ATS win, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season. Finally, Miss State falls into 24-5, 9-1, 129-91, 28-7, and 83-55 ATS post-season systems of mine. Lay the points with Mississippi State. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Memphis -4 v. Colorado State | Top | 90-67 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Colorado State. These two teams were both given #1 seeds by the NIT Tournament committee. The Tigers earned their berth into this semi-final round with a 69-66 triumph over Boise State, while Colorado State dispatched North Carolina State with a 4-point upset win, 65-61, as a 2-point underdog. Unfortunately for Boise, in the post-season, teams seeded #3 (or better) are a soft 100-138 ATS off an upset win, if installed as an underdog of +1.5 (or more) points. Memphis also is 13-2 ATS its last 15 games, and 21-12 ATS its last 33 post-season games, while Boise is 4-10 ATS in the post-season vs. non-conference foes. Take the Tigers minus the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-26-21 | Suns -4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Toronto. The Suns pulled a clunker on Wednesday night, as they were upset by the Magic, 112-111, as a 9.5-point road favorite. But we'll look for Phoenix to rebound tonight, as it's 12-1 ATS its last 13, and 44-13 ATS its last 57, off an upset road loss, including 8-0 ATS vs. an opponent off an upset win. With Toronto, indeed, off an upset of Denver in its last game, we'll fade the Raptors tonight. Take Phoenix minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-25-21 | Clippers v. Spurs +6.5 | Top | 98-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles. The Clippers led wire-to-wire last night, and blew out San Antonio, 134-101. Off that blowout defeat, we'll back San Antonio tonight in the rematch. For technical support, consider that San Antonio is 29-11 ATS its last 40 at home in the regular season when playing with revenge. Likewise, the Clippers are an awful 15-38 ATS off a SU/ATS win, when favored by 4+ points against a revenge-minded foe. And, league-wide, NBA home dogs of +6 (or more) points, that lost by 19+ points the previous day at home, have cashed 61.1% over the past 31 seasons. Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -7 | Top | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Brooklyn. This is a huge revenge game for the Jazz, who suffered their worst loss of this season earlier this year against the Nets. Brooklyn won that game by 34 points. But tonight's game is a great set-up for the homestanding Jazz. Brooklyn had to play Portland last night in a game which went down to the wire. The Nets did win that game (their second straight), but teams off back-to-back wins are a wallet-busting 31-54 ATS when playing without rest on the road against a rested Jazz team, and not getting more than 10 points. And rested Northwest division teams, with a .600 (or better) record, are 91-54 ATS in the regular season off a win, if they were playing with revenge. Take Utah to blow out Brooklyn. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-24-21 | Clippers v. Spurs +6 | Top | 134-101 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Los Angeles. The Spurs already defeated the Clippers once this season. And they'll get two more tries at it this week, as this is the first of a 2-game home series vs. ex-Spur Kawhi Leonard's Clippers. The Spurs come into this game off back to back losses to Milwaukee + Charlotte. But San Antone is 86-50 ATS at home off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite. Take the Spurs as a home underdog. | |||||||
03-24-21 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Thunder finished off their four-game road trip with back to back upset wins over the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves. But those two teams have a combined record of 22-63. Memphis, on the other hand, is a .500 ball club. It's true that OKC recently upset Memphis, 128-122, as a 9.5-point home underdog, on March 14. But the Grizz are an awesome 27-5 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, when Memphis not getting more than 7 points. And losing teams are a poor 61-100 ATS as underdogs when playing a revenge-minded team they upset as 9-point (or greater) underdogs in the previous meeting. Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Pepperdine. We succesfully played on the underdog Stetson Hatters not once, but twice, in the first two rounds of this CBI Tournament. Yesterday's ATS win by Stetson came at the expense of this Coastal Carolina team, though Coastal was able to survive in overtime to win by 5, as a 7.5-point favorite. And Stetson's ATS success continued a long-term trend in this CBI Tournament which has favored taking the points, as underdogs are now 110-93 ATS, including 55-38 ATS off a point spread defeat. That bodes well for Coastal Carolina tonight. As does the fact that Pepperdine is a horrible 34-57-1 ATS as a favorite vs. non-conference foes, while Coastal Carolina is 19-7 ATS as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, if the Chanticleers won their previous game. Take Coastal Carolina + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-24-21 | Nuggets v. Raptors +1.5 | Top | 111-135 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors over the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets won at Orlando lat night, 110-99. But off that win, we will fade Nikola Jokic & Co. this evening. Indeed, Denver is a dreadful 3-19 ATS as a road favorite off a win by more than 8 points. Meanwhile, Toronto is 95-62 ATS off back to back losses. I look for Nick Nurse's men to snap their losing streak tonight. Take Toronto. | |||||||
03-23-21 | Nets v. Blazers -1.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Brooklyn. We played against Portland on Sunday, and got the $$$ when Dallas blew them out by 40 points, 132-92. We'll take the Trail Blazers to bounce back on Tuesday, as rested home teams have gone 61% ATS off a blowout home loss by 25+ points, if they were matched up against a winning opponent which won its previous game. Take the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-23-21 | Stetson +7.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Coastal Carolina. We played on Stetson yesterday as a huge underdog (opened +9.5, closed +6.5) vs. Bowling Green, and the Hatters won outright, 53-52. We'll come right back with Stetson today as an underdog vs. Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are a poor 6-13 ATS as a favorite priced from -6.5 to -20 points, including 1-6 ATS off a win by more than 5 points, and 0-9 ATS if they didn't have a losing record against the spread. Likewise, favorites of 6+ points have burned money in the CBI Tournament, including 16-35 ATS their last 51. Finally, Atlantic Sun Conference teams have gone 49-33 in the post-season vs. non-conference foes, including 34-20 ATS as an underdog of 5+ points, and 16-7 ATS if they covered the spread by 6+ points in their previous game. Grab the points with the Hatters. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-22-21 | USC v. Kansas | Top | 85-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans over Kansas. Going into this tournament, the Big 10 Conference was the nation's best. But we're 45 games in, and just Michigan and Maryland remain. Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue have all been sent packing. Not surprisingly, the Big 10 has gone a collective 5-8 ATS. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 conference has been perfect. And not just on the scoreboard, but also "in Vegas," as the conference from the Left Coast is 7-0 SU/ATS. UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado and USC have done the Pac-12 proud, although three of the teams are still left to play today. One is USC, which will take on Big 12-member Kansas tonight (the Big 12 teams will be 5-7 ATS if Oklahoma can't come back on Gonzaga (they're down 17, as of this writing)). We'll take the Trojans in this game, as they fall into a 69-30 ATS 2nd Round system of mine, which goes against Kansas off its 93-84 win over Eastern Washington. Additionally, the Jayhawks failed to cover the spread against Eastern Washington, and are just 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes this season (and 0-6 ATS when not favored by 20+ points). Meanwhile, the Trojans are 5-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when priced from +2 to -13 points. Take USC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-22-21 | Maryland v. Alabama -5.5 | Top | 77-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Maryland. The Crimson Tide won the SEC Conference Tournament, and then defeated Iona in the opening round. They'll now take on the Maryland Terrapins, who upset UConn in its first game. Unfortunately for the Terrapins, underdogs off upset wins in the first round of the Tournament, priced from +4.5 to +10 points, have covered just 13 of 41 vs. foes that won their conference tournament. Lay the points with Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-22-21 | LSU v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over LSU. The #1-seeded Wolverines enter this game on their first 2-game point spread losing streak of the season. I like Michigan to bounce back tonight, as #1 seeds off back to back ATS losses have gone 30-3 SU and 22-10-1 ATS. And Michigan is 8-1 ATS its last 9, and 18-6 ATS its last 24 post-season games off a point spread defeat. Lay the points with the Wolverines. | |||||||
03-22-21 | Ohio v. Creighton -5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Ohio. The Bobcats shocked the defending National Champion Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, as they won 62-58, as a 7-point underdog. And that was Ohio's 4th straight win and cover. But off that big upset win, we will fade the #13 seed this evening. Indeed, teams seeded 12th (or worse) have covered just 20% in the 2nd Round of the Tournament when installed as an underdog of 7 or less points, if they were off 2 SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was not. And Mid-American Conference teams off a SU/ATS win are a soft 9-19 ATS in the Tourneys against non-conference foes not off an ATS win. Finally, Creighton has covered 86% over the last 31 seasons off back to back ATS losses, if its opponent was off 3 SU/ATS wins. Lay the points with the Bluejays today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Abilene Christian. The Bruins drew a short straw and was forced to play a "First Four" game in order to qualify for the first round of the tournament. The Bruins won that game against Michigan State, and then used it as a springboard to upset BYU on Thursday. I won't step in front of the Bruins today, as teams seeded 5th (or worse) off a Tourney win, have gone 16-0-1 ATS when favored by more than 4 points against a .715 (or better) foe. Take UCLA. | |||||||
03-22-21 | Stetson +9.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
At 11:30 am, on Monday, in the CBI Tournament, our selection is on the Stetson Hatters + the points over Bowling Green. The Falcons find themselves installed as a big favorite in this game, even though it comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Miami and Akron. Unfortunately, Bowling Green has been dreadful when laying points, as its 9-27-3 ATS its last 39, including 0-15-3 ATS off a point spread loss. We'll grab the points with Stetson, as it also falls into a 33-7 ATS Tourney system of mine. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Mavs -1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Portland Trail Blazers. Dallas lost by 6 points here to the Blazers on Friday. But the Mavs are 100-50 ATS off a road loss, when playing a non-division foe off a win. Take Dallas to avenge that defeat. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Oregon State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Oregon State. The Beavers won their fourth straight game as an underdog when they stunned Tennessee, 70-56, on Friday. Unfortunately, teams off 4+ upset wins have covered just 33% in the NCAA Tournament over the last 31 years, including just 11% in the Tourney's first two rounds. Moreover, the Beavers are a poor 7-20-1 ATS off 4+ wins. Take the Cowboys on Sunday night. Good luck, always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | North Texas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over North Texas. The #13-seeded Mean Green shocked Purdue, in Overtime, on Friday, while Villanova sent Winthrop packing with a 73-63 win. That was Winthrop's second straight win, which doesn't bode well for it today, as NCAA teams have cashed just 29% in the tourney's 2nd round off back to back upset wins. Take the Wildcats minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -8.5 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Oral Roberts. The Eagles advanced to this round with a huge upset win, in overtime, against Ohio State, as a #15 seed. But #15 seeds have not fared well in the Tournament when they were getting 16 or less points, as they've covered just nine of 29. Even worse for ORU tonight is the fact that underdogs, seeded #12 or worse, are a horrid 0-14 SU and 1-12-1 ATS off an overtime victory in the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points with Florida. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Raptors -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland. Toronto finally is getting its full team back on the hardwood. So, it will have to quickly get back into the win column, if it is to make a run at the post season. Tonight, it will attempt to snap its 7-game losing streak, and we'll lay the points, as Cleveland is a poor 6-18 ATS off a point spread loss. Meanwhile, NBA favorites of more than 6 points, have cashed 62% off 6+ losses over the past 31 years. Take Toronto. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Wizards v. Nets -8 | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Washington. The Nets lost a rare ballgame on Friday, as they fell to Orlando, 121-113, as an 11-point road favorite. But off that loss, we'll lay the points with Brooklyn tonight, as home teams have cashed 79.1% over the last 31 years off an outright loss as a road favorite of more than 10 points, if their opponent was off a win. With the Wizards, indeed, off a win over Utah, we'll take Brooklyn to blowout Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Rutgers +8 v. Houston | Top | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Houston. The Cougars have won their last two games by 37 and 31 points, which has caused this line -- according to my numbers -- to be a tad inflated. And we'll take advantage, as NCAA Tourney teams have gone 0-10 ATS in the 2nd round if they won their two previous games by 50+ points, combined. Even better: Rutgers has cashed 68.1% over the last 30 years when getting 5+ points against a non-conference foe off an ATS win. And Big 10 teams have cashed 60.8% in the Tourney against non-conference foes when getting 8+ points. Finally, AAC Conference teams have covered just 28% as favorites vs. non-conference foes in the post-season. Take Rutgers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Arkansas. The #6-seeded Red Raiders are favored today vs. the #3-seeded Razorbacks. And, over the last 31 years, when a team seeded #4 (or better) has been an underdog in the Tourney's 2nd round, it's cashed just 18% of the time. Likewise, when a team seeded #5 (or worse) has been favored in the 2nd round, it's gone 41-15-2 ATS. Finally, Arkansas is a wallet-busting 117-180 ATS away from home when not favored by more than 3 points. Take Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Syracuse v. West Virginia -4 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Syracuse. We played on WVU on Friday, and got the $$$ when they covered against Morehead State. And that moved WVU's record in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys to 35-16-2 ATS its last 53, including 22-9 ATS in the NCAA. We'll come right back with the Mountaineers on this Sunday, as they fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 131-64 ATS since 1990. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Wisconsin v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Wisconsin. The Bears have seemingly hit the skids, as they've covered just one of their last eight games (and 0-3 ATS their last three). But the Bears are 34-17 ATS off back to back ATS losses. And #1-seeded teams have cashed 63% in the NCAA Tourney's 2nd round, if they were off back-to-back ATS losses. Take Baylor. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Pacers v. Heat -5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana. The Heat were blown out here, at home, by Indiana, 137-110, on Friday. We'll take the Heat in this rematch, as winning NBA teams, playing with revenge against an opponent which upset it in the previous game by 25+ points, have gone 67% ATS since 1990. Take Miami. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Abilene Christian. The Wildcats defeated Nicholls St., 79-45, to win the Southland Conference championship. And that was Abilene's third straight win by more than 21 points. But Southland teams are a horrid 0-16 SU and 4-11-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +25 points in the NCAA Tourney. Meanwhile, Texas is 36-1 SU and 26-11 ATS when favored by more than 7 points against a non-conference foe off a win. Finally, NCAA underdogs (or PK) off three straight wins by more than 15 points are a poor 31% ATS over the last 31 post-seasons. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Norfolk State v. Gonzaga -33 | Top | 55-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Norfolk State. We played on the Spartans on Thursday, and got the $$$ when it upset Appalachian State. That was the Spartan's 7th straight win, overall. But they will be overwhelmed tonight by a Gonzaga offense which ranks #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. Gonzaga's 19-6 ATS when laying more than 25 points, if it wasn't off a SU/ATS win. And when matched up against #1-seeded teams, .695 (or worse) clubs are a soft 14-29 ATS, if they were off an upset NCAA Tourney win. Take the Bulldogs minus the points. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over San Antonio. The Bucks have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 11. Tonight, they'll welcome San Antonio to Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks are 15-5 this season. San Antonio had to play last night and, although it won, it is a poor 4-9 ATS on the road if it won the previous night. The Spurs have also covered just 30.4% since 1990 when getting 2+ points at a rested Eastern Conference opponent, if the Spurs were playing without rest. Take Milwaukee to blow out San Antone. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Sacramento. The Kings won on the road last night, when they upset the Boston Bruins. That was also the Kings' 2nd straight upset win. We'll go against them tonight, as they're playing without rest, while Philly had the last two nights off. And unrested teams off back to back upset road wins have covered just 32% since 1991 vs. foes that had the previous two nights off. Take Philly. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Warriors v. Grizzlies -6 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Golden State. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. That will be the attitude of Memphis tonight, as it gets a second chance to defeat Golden State. Last night, the Warriors won their second straight, when they upset Memphis by 13 points, even though Steph Curry was sidelined. He will once again be in street clothes, but after losing last night, you can rest assured Memphis won't take the Warriors lightly. The Warriors are a poor 1-10 ATS their last 11, and 8-24-1 ATS their last 33, off back-to-back wins. Take Memphis minus the points. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Ohio v. Virginia -7 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Ohio. The Bobcats won the Mid-American Conference tourney with an 84-69 upset of Buffalo, while Virginia was knocked out of the ACC Tournament by COVID-19. Prior to losing its bout with the COVID-19 protocols, Virginia won, but failed to cover, in a 72-69 win against Syracuse. The good news for the Cavaliers is that they'll get an opportunity to defend their 2019 championship. And we'll lay the points with Virginia tonight, as it's 28-12 ATS off an ATS loss in its previous game. Take Virginia. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Maryland +3.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over UConn. Both of these teams lost in their respective tournaments. Maryland fell to #1-seeded Michigan by 13 points, while UConn lost by 3 to Creighton. The line on this game opened at UConn -2/Maryland +2, but has ticked higher -- and enough so that we will step in and take the points with the Terrapins. It's true that Maryland was just 10-12 in Big 10 play this season. But it played in (by far) the best conference in the country, so we will take its losing Big 10 record with a boulder of salt. Based on my numbers, I believe Maryland is undervalued. Also, one of the last things you want to do is give a Big 10 Conference team points in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Indeed, Big 10 teams are 17-6-1 ATS when getting +2 (or more) points in Round 1. But that's not the best part. If our Big 10 team was blown out by double-digits in its previous game, then our 17-6 record zooms to 9-0-1 ATS. Finally, in match-ups between Big East and Big 10 Conference teams in the NCAA Tournament, underdogs of less than 6 points have gone 20-10 ATS. Grab the points with Maryland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Grand Canyon v. Iowa -14 | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
At 6:25 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Grand Canyon. The Hawkeyes were 21-8 SU and 15-13 ATS this season. But it played a rugged schedule, which included games against #1-seeded Gonzaga, #1-seeded Michigan, #1-seeded Illinois (two games), and #2-seeded Ohio State (two games). Against that 'murderer's row,' Iowa was 1-5 SU/ATS. Against the rest of its schedule, the Hawkeyes were 20-3 SU and 14-8 ATS. The good news for Iowa today is that nobody would mistake the Antelopes for a #1 or #2-seeded team. Iowa has been installed as a double-digit favorite, which bodes well for it this evening, as Iowa was 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in games it was laying more than 10 points. And, even better, it's 29-10-1 ATS when laying double-digits vs. non-conference foes, and 9-1 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off a win. The Hawkeyes also fall into several of my favorite systems, including one with a 118-70 ATS record (which was 3-1 yesterday), and another with a 151-65 ATS record (which was 1-0 yesterday). Lay the points with Iowa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Iona v. Alabama -16.5 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Iona. Our picks for this year's Final Four are Baylor, Gonzaga, West Virginia and this Crimson Tide team. Of all the 68 teams that qualified for this NCAA Tournament, the Crimson Tide have the nation's best defense, per Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency numbers, as they give up just 86.9 points per 100 possessions. Defensive efficiency has long been one of my favorite basketball metrics. So, it's noteworthy that, of the other 13 teams that rank among the Top 15 in this category, that played yesterday, such defensive juggernauts went 5-1 ATS (provided they didn't play another team ranked in the Top 15). This is a huge step-up in class for Iona, which has been installed as a double-digit underdog for just the 2nd time this season. In its other game as a double-digit dog, it was blown out by 22 by Seton Hall. Alabama is 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when laying double digits, while Iona is 0-16 SU and 5-11 ATS when getting double-digits, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Even worse for Iona: Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference champs have gone 2-13 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when priced from +7 to +21 points. Finally, the Gaels fall into a negative Tourney system of mine which is 61-160 ATS since 1990. Take the Crimson Tide minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-20-21 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Creighton -6.5 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara. The Gauchos won the Big West tournament last week, and have earned a 12 seed in this NCAA Tourney. But Big West teams have under-performed in the NCAA Tournament, including 4-13 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than four points. Creighton was seeded fifth by the committee, and probably hoped to get a Top 4 seed. But that likely went out the window last weekend. To say the Bluejays had a bad game last Saturday would be a massive understatement. Creighton was favored by eight points in the Big East title game vs. Georgetown, yet lost by 25 points, 73-48. In that game, the normally reliable Bluejays' offense (77.0 ppg; 47.6% FG) converted just 28.8% of its shots. Meanwhile, Georgetown canned 46.6%. And that game was a complete reversal of the previous meeting between the two teams (won by Creighton, 63-48) where the Bluejays hit 44.1%, while Georgetown only made 27.6%. I love Creighton to bounce back on Saturday afternoon, as teams off blowout losses by more than 17 points have covered 68% in the NCAA Tournament since 1991 if they were seeded among the Top 2 in their conference tourney. And if they're matched up against a .700 (or better) foe in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tourney, then our angle zooms to 78% ATS over the last 30 years. Creighton is an awesome 32-13 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 15-3 ATS its last 18 off a 15-point (or worse) defeat. Lay the points with the Bluejays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25.5 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Texas Southern. The Tigers earned this date with Michigan by defeating Mount St. Mary's in a 'play-in' game on Thursday. That moved their record to 17-8 SU and 13-10 ATS. Unfortunately, #16-seeded teams, with good W/L percentages above .630, have been awful in the tournament when getting 21+ points, as they've gone 7-23 ATS. Michigan rolled to a 20-4 record this season. And three of its four losses were to a revenge-minded opponent it defeated earlier in the year. But the Tigers won't have the benefit of previous game experience or motivation from revenge this afternoon. On the other hand, Michigan lost its previous game to the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the Wolves typically bounce back strong off losses, as they're 84-47-2 ATS off a loss, including 10-0-1 ATS their last 11, and 16-1-1 ATS their last 18 when laying 5+ points. Lay the points with Juwan Howard's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure v. LSU -2 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 102 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 Tourney with a 74-65 victory over VCU, while LSU fell one point short in the SEC Championship game against Alabama. Unfortunately for St. Bonaventure, it has not fared well against non-conference foes off a loss, and especially not when priced from +7 to -15 points, as it's covered just 18 of 56 (and 0-9 ATS if its foe was off an upset loss). Take LSU minus the points. | |||||||
03-20-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Florida State -10.5 | Top | 54-64 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
At 12:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over NC Greensboro. Florida State lost in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech, 80-75, as a 4.5-point favorite. But off that upset loss, I love FSU to rebound this afternoon against the Spartans. Indeed, ACC Conference favorites of 8+ points have gone 36-9 ATS against .714 (or better) opponents, if our ACC team was off an upset loss, and failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in its previous game. Lay the points with the Seminoles. | |||||||
03-20-21 | Georgetown v. Colorado -5.5 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
At 12:15 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Georgetown. The Hoyas surprised many with their run to the Big East title last weekend. Among Georgetown's victims were Villanova and Creighton, who both made this NCAA Tournament. But off its string of four straight upset wins, we will fade the Hoyas this afternoon, as teams off 4 straight upset wins have covered 0 of their last 7, and just four of their last 19 games. And in the last 31 years of this NCAA Tournament, teams off upset wins in their previous four games have covered just 35.7%. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-19-21 | Wolves v. Suns -10.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Minnesota. These two teams met here last night, and the Suns blew a 15-point, 3rd quarter lead to lose, 123-119. We'll take Phoenix in the rematch, as NBA teams have gone 27-9 ATS when playing the 2nd of back-to-back games against a foe which upset it as a 9.5-point (or bigger) underdog, provided that foe's W/L percentage was .600 (or less). Additionally, the Suns are 11-3 ATS off a loss, while the Timberwolves are 0-23 SU and 6-17 ATS as an unrested underdog off an upset win. Take the Suns minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-19-21 | Winthrop v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Winthrop. The Wildcats will look to bounce back from their upset loss to Georgetown, as a 6-point favorite last week. Here, they'll battle Winthrop, the Big South Conference champion. Just two points separated the Eagles from an undefeated season, as their only loss was against NC-Asheville, on Jan. 29. The Bulldogs won that game, 57-55, as a 12.5-point underdog. Today, the 23-1 Eagles have been installed as a mid-sized underdog vs. Villanova. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with a team which hasn't lost by 3+ points all season, especially given that Winthrop was 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog (and 13-11 ATS, overall). But be careful. In fact, NCAA teams with a win percentage > .883 are a soft 35.7% ATS in the Tourney when installed as an underdog, including 0-6-1 ATS over the last three Tourneys. Even worse: Villanova is a spectacular 44-14-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 4+ points in its previous game, if it was matched up against a foe with an ATS win percentage greater than 45.5% (and 17-0-1 ATS if priced from -6.5 to -12 points). Take the Wildcats to blow out Winthrop. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-19-21 | Morehead State v. West Virginia -13 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Morehead State. So, a quick trivia question: name the team which came the closest to defeating 26-0 Gonzaga this season. Answer: West Virginia. Indeed, the Mountaineers are the ONLY team which Gonzaga didn't beat by 10+ points this season, as the score in the game was 87-82. Likewise, the Mountaineers only lost to the 2nd best team, Baylor, by five points, 94-89. So, this is a team which has the talent to win against ANY team in the country. And WVU is one of my picks to make the Final Four (along with Gonzaga, Baylor and Alabama). It's true that WVU was upset by Oklahoma State not once, but twice, to end its season. But NCAA Tourney teams favored by 7+ points are 90% ATS the past 15 years off back to back losses. We'll lay the points in this NCAA Tourney opener, as the Mountaineers are also 34-16-2 in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys, including 21-9 ATS in the NCAA. Take WVU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-19-21 | North Texas v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over North Texas. The Boilers had won and covered five straight before falling, 87-78, to Ohio State in the Big 10 Tourney. But I love them to bounce back from that 9-point loss today, as they generally do just that under coach Matt Painter. Indeed, dating back to his first season as head coach, Purdue is an awesome 60-23 ATS off a SU/ATS loss by 7+ points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season! Take Purdue minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-19-21 | Cleveland State +20 v. Houston | Top | 56-87 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings + the points over Houston. We played on the Cougars last Sunday against Cincinnati, and it was over early, as Houston coasted to a 91-54 victory, as a 13.5-point favorite. Unfortunately for the Cougars, teams generally have letdowns after such dominant wins in their Conference Championship game. Indeed, favorites (or PK) have gone 8-22 ATS in the NCAA tourney after a SU/ATS win by 15+ points in their conference title game, including 0-6 ATS when priced from -15.5 to -21.5 points. Take Cleveland State + the points. | |||||||
03-19-21 | Hartford v. Baylor -25.5 | Top | 55-79 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Hartford. In the last NCAA Tournament, our selection in the preseason was Virginia (at 22-1 odds) to win the National Title (and it did). This year, our preseason pick was on Baylor (at 12-1 odds). So, it's probably not a surprise that we will play on the Bears minus the points over the Hawks to open this tournament. Baylor has been dominant against non-conference foes, going 54-11 straight-up, and 29-15 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced as a big favorite of -19 to -43.5 points. Even better: #1-seeded teams are 23-7 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when laying 21+ points against foes with a won/loss percentage greater than .625. Take Baylor. | |||||||
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders made it all the way to the last NCAA Tournament championship game, but lost to Virginia in overtime. This year's Texas Tech team won't be getting Elite Eight, much less the title game, as it's underwhelmed the entire season. Indeed, if you toss out all its games against teams from the Southland Conference, SWAC, Sun Belt, etc., and only look at Texas Tech's record against foes from the larger conferences, its record was just 10-10 this season. Even worse: it was 6-14 ATS in those 20 games, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread at least 42% of the time (Utah State has covered 59.2% this season). Finally, the clincher is that Texas Tech is an awful 63-107-2 ATS away from home off a loss, including 6-17 ATS when favored by 4 or more points. Take the Aggies as the underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-19-21 | Colgate v. Arkansas -8.5 | Top | 68-85 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
At 12:45 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Colgate. The Patriot League champion Raiders are seeded #14, and have drawn #3-seeded Arkansas from the SEC as their first round foe. Colgate has been installed as a single-digit underdog. But tourney teams seeded #13 (or worse) have gone just 60-91 ATS as single-digit underdogs (or PK) since 1991. That doesn't bode well for the Raiders on Friday. Nor does the fact that Arkansas is 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 when priced as a favorite of 14 or less points. And Arkansas is also 10-0 ATS in non-conference games with single-digit point spreads, if Arkansas was off an upset loss. Take the Razorbacks. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-18-21 | SMU v. Boise State | Top | 84-85 | Win | 100 | 38 h 48 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Thursday, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos over SMU. The Broncos were bounced out of the Mountain West Conference tournament a week ago when it was upset by Nevada, 89-82, as a 4-point favorite. And that was Boise's 3rd straight loss, overall. But off that upset loss, I love Boise to bounce back against SMU. Indeed, the Broncos are a powerful 48-25 ATS off a loss when matched up against a non-conference foe, including 8-1 ATS off an upset loss when not playing on an opponent's home floor. Even worse for SMU: this game is priced near Pk'em, and SMU has covered just 27 of 78 when priced from -1.5 to +9 points! And, finally, NCAA teams off 3+ losses have covered 69.4% of post-season games when installed as a favorite against a non-conference foe also off a SU/ATS loss. Take Boise State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-18-21 | Norfolk State +3.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, in the NCAA Tournament "First Four" play-in round, our selection is on the Norfolk State Spartans + the points over Appalachian State. The Mountaineers come into this game off an upset win over Georgia State in the Sun Belt championship game. But Sun Belt teams have not fared well in the NCAA Tourney when they weren't getting more than 8 points, as they've covered just four of 16 games. And the Mountaineers are also a wallet-busting 8-19-1 ATS away from home off an upset win. Meanwhile, the Spartans have won their last six games, while going 5-0 ATS with one game off the board. And they're 24-15 ATS as an underdog away from home. Grab the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-17-21 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 112-116 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. Toronto comes into tonight's game off a 118-95 loss at Chicago on Monday. The Raptors are also currently mired in a 5-game losing streak, including a 129-105 home loss to these Pistons just 14 days ago. But that upset defeat sets up Toronto in a very good revenge situation tonight. What we want to do is play on any .633 (or worse) NBA team which is favored, and playing with revenge from an upset loss by more than 18 points. These revengers have cashed to the tune of 64.4% in the regular season, including 4-1-1 ATS already this season. Indeed, we had one of these plays come up just two days ago when the Clippers avenged a 51-point defeat to the Mavericks. Even better: Toronto is 94-59 ATS off back to back losses, and 13-5 ATS its last 18 off a loss by more than 11 points. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-17-21 | Toledo v. Richmond +2.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Wednesday, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders + the points over Toledo. The Rockets went 15-4 this season in the MAC Conference, but were defeated by Ohio, 87-80, in the semi-finals. That relegated the Rockets to the NIT Tournament, and they've been installed as a small favorite against the Atlantic 10's Spiders. We'll fade Toledo tonight, as Mid-American conference teams have covered just one of 12 NIT Tourney games when not getting more than 5 points, including 0-8 ATS as a favorite. That doesn't bode well for Toledo tonight. Nor does the fact that it's an awful 0-8 itself in the post-season the past four years. Or that it's covered just nine of 36 post-season games when priced from -3 to +12 points. Take Richmond + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-15-21 | Clippers -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Dallas Mavericks. When these two teams met in December, the Clippers were annihilated by the Mavs, 124-73. We had one of our two strongest plays of the season-to-date on the Mavericks in that game, but we will go against Dallas tonight. Our key factor, of course, is the magnitude of the loss by Los Angeles. Indeed, teams that lose by 50+ points have covered the spread in the next regular season match-up 75% (12-4 ATS) of the time. And, if we relax our margin of victory from 50 points to 30 points, and then add a couple of other factors: our opponent is off a SU/ATS win, while our revenge-minded team failed to cover the spread in its previous game (against a different opponent) by 7+ points, then our team playing with 30-point revenge is 19-0 ATS since 1991 if it was also installed as the favorite. Moreover, before losing by 51 to Dallas, the Clippers had actually dominated this series, with a 7-3 SU/ATS record over the previous 10 meetings. I look for the Clippers to get the win tonight. Lay the small number. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-14-21 | Cincinnati v. Houston -13 | Top | 54-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Cincinnati. The Cougars were favored by 7 points yesterday against Memphis, and won that semi-final game, 76-74, to oust the #3-seeded Tigers from the AAC Tournament. But Houston failed to cover the spread in that game. However, that ATS loss sets up the Cougars in an NCAA Tournament system which has cashed 14 straight. What we want to do is play on a team favored by more than 7 points in its Conference championship game, if it didn't cover the spread in its previous game. Lay the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-14-21 | LSU v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 79-80 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over LSU. These two SEC rivals met twice earlier this season. And the Tigers were blown out in each game by Alabama. LSU first lost at home by 30 points, 105-75. And then it fell by 18 in the rematch, at Tuscaloosa, in February. Those two defeats have continued LSU's general failures when it comes to playing 'Bama. Dating back to 2001, LSU has covered just 14 of 41 games vs. the Crimson Tide. We'll lay the points with Alabama today, as NCAA teams, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 points in their conference's championship game, have covered 69.7% since 1997, if they won both regular season meetings by double-digits. And SEC revenge-minded teams (like LSU) have covered just 35.7% in the SEC Championship game, including 2-8 ATS if they lost the previous meeting by more than 10 points. Lay the points with Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-13-21 | Pacers +7 v. Suns | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Phoenix Suns. The Pacers led most of last night's game at the Los Angeles Lakers, but only scored 14 of the game's final 45 points, and lost, 105-100. The Pacers will try to bounce back tonight in the Valley of the Sun. And we'll grab the points with the road underdog. After losing ATS last night, the Pacers' point spread losing streak has now been stretched to seven games. However, NBA road underdogs, off a SU/ATS road loss, and 7+ ATS losses, overall, are a solid 57-29-2 ATS. Grab the points with the Pacers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-13-21 | Blazers -4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Minnesota. The Timberwolves snapped their nine-game losing streak with a 30-point blowout win over the New Orleans Pelicans. But Minnesota is still a god-awful team. And I love going against bad teams off wins because -- one of the reasons they are bad -- is that they don't often put two good games together, back-to-back. This year, for example, Minnesota is 2-5 ATS off a win. And it's 12-21 ATS its last 33 off a straight-up win, including 2-11 ATS when priced from +4.5 to +14.5 points. The Trail Blazers lost their first game after the All-Star Break, 127-121, to the Phoenix Suns. But NBA teams that lose SU/ATS in their first game after the All-Star Break generally rebound in their next game, and have gone 92-68-3 ATS since 1990. Finally, the Blazers are 10-1 ATS off a loss, if the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 6 points or less. I look for Portland to rout the Timberwolves on Saturday. Lay the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -8 | Top | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays minus the points over the Georgetown Hoyas. The Hoyas are a surprising entrant in the Big East Conference Tourney championship game. But they will be hard-pressed to defeat the Blue Jays this evening. Even with their three Tourney victories thus far, the Hoyas still don't have a winning record on the season. And underdogs without a winning record are 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS their last 11 Conference Tourney title games! That doesn't bode well for the Hoyas today. Nor does the fact that Georgetown's covered just four of the last 13 meetings vs. the Blue Jays. Finally, Big East tourney underdogs of +7 (or more) points have lost their last 18 games, straight-up, and have covered just 35 of 91 games. Take Creighton to blow Georgetown out. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-13-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -1.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Oklahoma State. Yesterday, the Cowboys ousted Baylor (my preseason pick, at 12-1 odds, to win this year's National Championship) from the Big 12 Tourney. But off that huge upset, we will go against the Cowboys today in the Big 12 Conference title game. Indeed, NCAA teams that defeated their conference's #1 seed in the semi-final round, if that #1 seed's W/L percentage was .890 (or better), have generally suffered letdowns in the title game, and have only covered the spread 23% of the time since 2000. Like Oklahoma State, the Texas Longhorns are also playing terrific basketball. Shaka Smart's men have won and covered four straight after they upset Texas Tech yesterday. And they also play this game with revenge from a loss to the Cowboys in the previous meeting this season. Texas is 13-4 ATS its last 17 games when playing with revenge, and also a perfect 5-0 ATS its last five post-season games when playing with revenge. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-13-21 | Iona -8.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 60-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Fairfield. Both of these Metro Atlantic teams enter this championship game on a roll. The Gaels have won five straight (4-0-1 ATS) after yesterday's 70-64 triumph against Niagara, as a six-point favorite. And Fairfield is riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak after its upset win over St. Peter's last night. Off that upset win, we will fade the Stags this afternoon, as they're a wallet-busting 6-28 ATS off an upset win, if their foe wasn't off an ATS loss, as well as 0-16 SU and 1-15 ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a .666 (or better) foe. Meanwhile, Iona is 7-0-1 ATS its last eight post-season games, and 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 Metro Atlantic tourney games. Lay the points with the Gaels. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Rockets +18.5 v. Jazz | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Utah Jazz. Right now, the Rockets are as bad as an NBA team can be. They've lost 14 straight, and have covered just one of those 14 games. But the oddsmakers have adjusted, so the Rockets are now getting 18.5 points. And that's enough for me to pull the trigger on Houston tonight. For technical support, consider that NBA teams on 7-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks are a solid 131-91-5 ATS on the road, including 26-12 ATS when getting more than 11 points. That bodes well for the Rockets today. As does the fact that NBA teams are just 12-28 ATS when laying more than 11 points in their first game after the All-Star Break. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Nevada. The Wolf Pack upset the Boise State Broncos yesterday, 89-82, as a 4-point underdog. And that was Nevada's 2nd straight win, overall. Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, they're a wallet-busting 14-26 ATS in the post-season off back to back wins, including 0-9 ATS if they covered the spread by 10+ points in their previous game. San Diego St. is 39-24 ATS as a favorite vs. foes off an upset win, including 24-9 ATS if the Aztecs were off an ATS loss. Take San Diego State tonight minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-12-21 | UC-Davis v. UC-Santa Barbara -10 | Top | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal-Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points over Cal Davis. The Gauchos have won each of their last three games, but they've not covered the point spread in any of them. That ATS losing streak should end tonight, as NCAA teams on 3-Game win streaks, that have gone 0-3 ATS in those games, have covered the spread 61.8% in the post-season vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Lay the points with the Gauchos. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Connecticut v. Creighton | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays over Connecticut. The Huskies won their fifth straight game, and stretched their ATS win streak to seven games yesterday when they blew out DePaul, 94-60, as a 12.5-point favorite. Creighton also won a blowout, as it ousted Butler, 87-56, as a 10.5-point favorite. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Huskies, especially since they also play this game with revenge from two losses to Creighton this season. But double-revenging NCAA teams have covered just 36% since 1991 if they were on 5-game SU/ATS win streaks. Take Creighton to bounce UConn from the Big East Tournament. | |||||||
03-12-21 | North Carolina v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over North Carolina. The Seminoles were upset by Notre Dame in their last regular season game. And they also were upset by the Tar Heels when these two teams last met. That combination of upset defeats should serve as motivation for Florida State tonight. Indeed, NCAA teams off an upset loss to end the regular season, and playing with revenge from an upset loss, have covered 60% over the last 31 seasons vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Florida State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Rutgers v. Illinois -7.5 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Rutgers. The Illini have impressed over the past 15 days, as they've won (and covered) four straight, including upset wins over Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State. I won't step in front of this freight train this evening, as they're playing with revenge from a loss in Piscataway earlier this season. Rutgers was a 4.5-point home underdog in that game, and won, 91-88. But revenge-minded teams, with a .769 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 60% in the conference tourneys against .625 (or worse) opponents, if our revenger was upset on the road in the previous meeting. Even better: if our team is off back to back SU/ATS wins, then our 60% system zooms to 74%. Take Illinois minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Cincinnati v. SMU -5.5 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Cincinnati. This is a revenge game for the Mustangs, who lost, 76-69, as a 5.5-point home favorite to the Bearcats when these teams met in Dallas earlier this season. The Mustangs come into this AAC Tournament off back to back road wins against Tulsa and East Carolina. And that bodes well for them this afternoon, as AAC Conference teams have gone 62-34 ATS off a win, if they were favored by 3+ points against a conference foe which it lost to in the previous meeting. Even better: the Bearcats won their last regular season game, 82-69, vs. East Carolina. Unfortunately for SMU, it is 1-13 its last 14, and 6-30 ATS its last 36 off a win. Take SMU minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Ohio State v. Purdue | Top | 87-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Purdue. The Buckeyes were ranked among the top four teams in the country going into their game vs. the Wolverines. But Ohio State lost that game, and then proceeded to lose three more to fall to 18-8 on the season. Yesterday, the Buckeyes finally won, but they didn't cover the point spread, which was their fifth straight ATS loss. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Boilermakers, who have won (and covered) five straight. But NCAA teams (like Ohio State), off 5+ ATS losses, with a win percentage > .700, have covered 61% over the last 31 years vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. I expect the Buckeyes to get back into the win column "in Vegas" this afternoon, blow out Purdue, and make a serious run at the Big 10 Title. We'll lay the small number. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan -8.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
At 11:30 AM, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland. The #3-ranked Wolverines were upset by their rival, Michigan State, in their final regular season game. But that loss wasn't surprising, given that Michigan had just blown out the Spartans by 19 points three days before. So, Michigan State was out for revenge in the rematch, and got it. But off that upset loss, we'll play on U-M against Maryland, as single-digit favorites have covered 69% in the conference tourneys off an upset loss, if they owned a win percentage greater than .800. Take Michigan to blow out Maryland. | |||||||
03-11-21 | Montana +7 v. Weber State | Top | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies + the points over Weber St., as the Grizzlies fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 162-83 ATS. Yesterday, the Grizzlies won their opening tournament game, 69-64, as a 13.5-point favorite vs. Idaho. Montana's now a mid-priced underdog vs. Weber State, and we'll grab the points with Travis DeCuire's men. For technical support, consider that underdogs have cashed 58% in conference tourneys over the past 31 years if they won their previous conference tourney game by 5 points or less, while being favored by 10+ points in that game. Additionally, Montana's 9-2 ATS vs. Weber St if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game. And Weber is a poor 14-23-1 ATS its last 38 post-season games, including 7-15-1 ATS vs. conference foes off a win. Grab the points with the Grizzlies. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |