Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-17-19 | Georgia State v. Georgetown OVER 151.5 | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My owns projections make this Totals closer to 155 thus giving us value with a over wager. GEORGETOWN is 12-3 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 165.9 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GEORGIA ST) - after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more are 174-106 OVER L/23 seasons for a long term 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER | |||||||
11-17-19 | Yale v. Oklahoma State UNDER 143.5 | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State in their usual methodical ways will pound the glass with their big bodies in what Im betting they will force into a a very physical affair. OKLAHOMA ST is 18-8 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 UNDER versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA ST is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA ST is 13-2 UNDER after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.OKLAHOMA ST is 23-6 UNDER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
YALE is 10-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-15-19 | Cleveland State v. South Carolina UNDER 137.5 | 63-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
South Carolina improved to 2-0 on the young season when it posted a 66-32 victory over Wyoming at Colonial Life Arena on Sunday behind a top tier D, which Im betting will once again play a smothering style of basketball. The Gamecock defense is holding opponents to just 24.0 percent from the field thus far, which leads the SEC and ranks third nationally. Needless to say, I expect Cleveland will not do much offensive damage here and only put up 50 points vs Minnesota on the road in their opener and just 53 points on the board vs Missouri state as visitors. Clevelands output and Carolina D and pace make this an under wager. Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 non-conference games. Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 overall.Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-0 in Gamecocks last 6 home games.Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 7-1 in Gamecocks last 8 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Gamecocks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 9-3 in Gamecocks last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 14-5 in Gamecocks last 19 Friday games. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-14-19 | Michigan State v. Seton Hall UNDER 140.5 | 76-73 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Seton Hall will play without star guard Myles Powell and that will adversely effect their offensive flow of a team that is defensive minded in nature. Meanwhile, Michigan State is expected play without senior guard Joshua Langford which will also effect the Spartans offence as he compliments star guard Cassius Winston. With that said, Im taking the under here in a game that should be grinding and physical in nature. MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 UNDER after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 2 seasons which was the case in a 100-47 beatdown of Binghamton last time out. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-08-19 | Harvard v. Northeastern UNDER 142 | 79-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Northeastern won their opener by a 72-67 count vs Boston U while Harvard won their opening tilt by a 84-27 count vs MIT. Both teams modus operandi is based on a solid D, and a methodical pace, which Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt tonight that remains on the low side of the total. Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 overall.Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-0 in Huskies last 7 home games. Amaker is 20-9 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better as the coach of HARVARD with a combined average of 133.6 ppg going on the board.HARVARD is 24-11 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997 with a combined average of 131.1 ppg going on the board.HARVARD iin their L/15 after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 133.1 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-08-19 | Davidson v. Auburn OVER 145.5 | 66-76 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
VETERANS CLASSIC - Alumni Hall - Annapolis, MD The Wildcats return all five starters from a 24-10 club that finished second in the Atlantic 10 with a 14-4 conference record last season. This team can really light it up in cohesive fashion, and tonight their going to play to Auburns speed and possibly beat them at their own game in a tilt I have pegged to go over the total. Davidson will be playing its season opener after running past Glenville State 102-94 in an exhibition. Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 overall.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 neutral site games.Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games. Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 non-conference games.Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 Friday games.AUBURN is 15-5 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.2 ppg scored. Play on the OVER | |||||||
11-07-19 | UAB v. Troy State UNDER 140.5 | 76-75 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Early season action will have defences in better from than shooters. This is strong instate rivalry that should be hard fought, which will dictate a slower, more physical affair that stays on the low side of the total. Under is 9-1 in Blazers last 10 vs. Sun Belt.Under is 17-7-1 in Blazers last 25 Thursday games.Under is 51-25-2 in Blazers last 78 non-conference games. Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 overall. Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings. UAB is 50-30 UNDER as a road favorite or pick since 1997 with a combined average `of 137.1 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-05-19 | Michigan State v. Kentucky UNDER 138.5 | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
CHAMPIONS CLASSIC - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY Tonight’s No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Kentucky has a bit of a tainted public leaning totals number attached to it. ( The public loves to bang the over on marquee games) My number on this total is closer to 134 to 136, thus according to my projections we have value to the under. Note: Both teams have been hit with the injury bug, and because of personnel improvisations Im betting a more muted flow and pace which directly effect this total to the under. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - good rebounding team from last season - outrebounded opponents by 4+ per game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
04-04-19 | Green Bay v. Marshall UNDER 169 | 70-90 | Win | 100 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
This game is being projected to be high scoring, but Im betting the number is just to high despite of how the public views these teams and what kind of scoring output should be expected. It must be noted that MARSHALL is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 157.8 ppg scored.MARSHALL is 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.9 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 9-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is 160 or more this season. WI-GREEN BAY is 22-9 UNDER off a home win over the last 3 seasons with combined average of 151.1 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Thundering Herd last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 home games.Under is 7-1 in Thundering Herd last 8 non-conference games.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 overall.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 5-0 in Phoenix last 5 Thursday games.Under is 4-0 in Phoenix last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Phoenix last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Phoenix last 5 non-conference games. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky UNDER 142 | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Elite 8 games have been historically played at a slower pace than the rest of the NCAA tourney. Auburns proven all season long that their offense is a strength but with key cog Okeke out or less than 100% their flow will be effected as well as their output. Meanwhile, Kentucky is now basing their successes and failures on a top tier brand of hoops and are playing at a distinctly slower pace than the pundits are expecting going under in 17 of their L/22 overall and 3 straight tourney games. Today against a Tigers side that shoots alot of 3s , Im betting the. Wildcats will be at their best as has been evident during the tournament holding opponents to 32.5% conversion rates from beyond the arc. Look for a much more stringent game than expected and a score that does not eclipse the total. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia UNDER 126.5 | 75-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
Im betting on Virginia implementing a physical battle as they prepare to take advantage of their rebound efficiency advantage (51st-highest defensive rebounding rate) . Im also betting they will be prepared to really slow this game down behind the slowest pace in College Hoops and control the flow because as we know the Cavs prefer not to take part in run and gun affairs if possible. We all know Virginias key to success or failure is based on D, and is evident by holding their forst 3 opponents in this tourney to 56, 51 and 49 points respectively. Meanwhile, Purdues key to success has been their downtown shooting, and against the nations 2nd rank perimeter D that allows opponents to shoot 28.2% from beyond the arc, the Boilermakers offensive output would and could easily be thwarted. This above combination will result in a combined score that remains on the low side if the Total. Note: Bennett is 21-9 UNDER in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 122.5 ppg scored. PURDUE is 11-2 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons.VIRGINIA is 22-8 UNDER on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 121 ppg scored. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-30-19 | Texas Tech v. Gonzaga OVER 139.5 | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 0 h 30 m | Show | |
TexasTech has a strong defence, but they are no slouches on offence and should be pushed a bit here by the highest scoring team in the nation Gonzaga. The Raiders when forced to score can light it up as was the case against Iowa State, Kansas , Baylor, West Virginia and TCU scoring more than 80 points in those games, and prior to their game against Michigan in the Sweet 16 averaged almost 8- points per game over a 10 game conference span. With that said, look for a much higher scoring game then the lines-makers might expect. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 OVER after a game committing 8 or less turnovers this season with a combined average for a 149.1 ppg. Play OVER | |||||||
03-29-19 | Auburn v. North Carolina OVER 162 | 97-80 | Win | 100 | 84 h 56 m | Show | |
NCAA - Midwest Regional Semifinals - Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO We all know North Carolina runs their offence at a very fast pace, and Im betting Auburn will feed into this energy and that we will have a back forth pro style game played with plenty of points going on the board. Auburn averages just under 80 ppg on the season and N.Carolina averages 86 ppg. AUBURN is 20-7 L/27 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game after 15+ games . Play OVER | |||||||
03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State UNDER 149.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 129 h 48 m | Show | |
NCAA - East Regional Semifinals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC Michigan State an extremely capable team will be prepared to play lock down defence against a explosive LSU offence here today. Im sure Tom Izzos game plan will be to take the flow away for the Tigers, which will result in much lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers expect. Michigan State in their L/4 games have allowed, 55,60, 65,50 points respectively. LSU is 9-1 UNDER when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament since 1997. MICHIGAN ST is 6-0 UNDER after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less this season. MICHIGAN ST is 11-1 UNDER in road games after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games this season. MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 UNDER vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
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03-29-19 | CS Bakersfield v. Green Bay UNDER 156 | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
College Insider Tournament - Quarterfinals My own projections make this total closer to 152 which gives us value on a least a 2 possession number. WI-GREEN BAY is 9-0 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. WI-GREEN BAY is 11-2 UNDER in home games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since 1997 CS-BAKERSFIELD is 7-1 UNDER after playing a game as a road underdog this season. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (WI-GREEN BAY) - poor defensive team - allowing 77+ points/game on the season, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 211-138 UNDER L/22 for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Home teams against the total (WI-GREEN BAY) - team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are . 34-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia UNDER 120 | 49-53 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
NCAA - South Regional Semifinals - KFC Yum Center - Louisville, KY These teams run two the slowest most deliberate paces in all of College Hoops, and in a game as important as this Im betting on a combined score that fails to eclipse the total as physical grinding action should be key. Virginia allows just 55 points per game, and Oregon just 62.5 ppg. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more defence. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 119.5 or less (OREGON/VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or better ) after 15+ games are 34-10 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-28-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan UNDER 126.5 | 63-44 | Win | 100 | 62 h 5 m | Show | |
NCAA - West Regional Semifinals - Honda Center - Anaheim, CA Texas TEch and Michigan both play at a methodical pace, and both base their entire success or failures on playing a top tier brand of defence. The Red Raiders have allowed an average of 59.2 ppg while Michigan has allowed 58.2 ppg. Look for this matchup to be a grinding physical affair that stays on the low side of the total. MICHIGAN is 15-8 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. TEXAS TECH is 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (MICHIGAN) - after allowing 50 points or less against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 75-35 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 147.5 | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Gonzaga is often looked at for their explosive offence, but they are ranked 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have held their opposition to 43% FG which ranks them 6th in the nation. Meanwhile athletic Florida State owns the 10th best adjusted defensive efficiency and have the ability to put alot of pressure on the Bulldogs attack . Im betting on this game staying under the total. When these teams met last year (March 22) the Seminoles took a 75-60 win, and Im betting on a similar combined output in the rematch. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GONZAGA) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or more ) are 68-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-27-19 | Colorado v. Texas OVER 138.5 | 55-68 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
NIT - Quarterfinals Texas outside their conference in their recent NIT games have looked alot more offensively cohesive, scoring 79 and 78 points in back to back games thanks in part to the emergence of Courtney Ramey a young man that shows alot of talent and leadership abilities . Tonight the the Longhorns will go against a Colorado team, that can light it up when need be, as was evident in a recent battle with UCLA popping 93 points on the board. When I look at both teams weaknesses and strengths it becomes obvious to me that their will be alot more scoring here than the lines-makers anticipate. Boyle is 16-7 OVER after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less as the coach of COLORADO with a combined average of 144.5 ppg scored. Boyle is 6-0 OVER in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half as the coach of COLORADO with a combined average of 160 ppg scored. Play OVER | |||||||
03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul OVER 162.5 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
DePaul averages 80.4 ppg in offence at home this season, while Coastal Carolina allows just under 80 ppg on D overall . Meanwhile,Coastal Carolina is off of scoring more than 100 points against West Virginia in their last game and are flowing with the basketball as they enter this game, and will be up to the task of running and gunning with their exploisve opponents tonight in what Im betting will be a back and forth event. DEPAUL is 7-1 OVER in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 168 ppg going on the board.DEPAUL is 6-0 OVER in March games this season with a combined average of 173.6 ppg going on the board. Play on the OVER | |||||||
03-26-19 | Wichita State v. Indiana UNDER 138 | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals India star Langford has missed Indiana’s first two NIT games after experiencing a back issue at the Big Ten Tournament and if he plays he will be limited, which in turn will continue to hinder the Hoosiers flow which is a thick a oil anyway. Indiana’s struggles from outside as three-pointers, which ranks No. 299 in the try in three-point rate, and the Hoosiers make just 31.2 percent of them, the No. 314 mark in the country, so rounding up points in bunches is not an option. Indiana has been able to compete because of a defense that ranks No. 29 on KenPom , and in their two NIT victories, the Hoosiers D kept both St. Francis (0.98) and Arkansas (0.90) under one point per possession and Im betting on more of the same here vs Wichita State. Meanwhile, WSU’s defense, which has done well limiting shots at the rim (33 percent, No. 93 nationally) and also defending shots at the rim (55.4 percent, No. 42 nationally) will be behemouth keeping a Indiana team that scores most of its points in close to struggle which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 129.5 ppg scored. INDIANA is 9-2 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined 128.9 ppg scored. CBB Home teams against the total (INDIANA) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are 109-66 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. | |||||||
03-25-19 | Brown v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 139 | 63-81 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals Its never easy for a team like Brown travelling for East to West, and their internal clocks should be effected , which should effect their offensive flow. This Brown team bases its successes and failures on their ability to play strong D, so that wont be effected here, but will directly make for a much slower paced conservative game plan, which in turn Im betting will see a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. BROWN is 11-1 UNDER as a road underdog or pick this season.BROWN is 13-1 UNDER in road lined games this season. It must also be noted that Loyola Marymount is also playing some strong defence, and is 7-0 UNDER after allowing 55 points or less this season whichwas the case last time out. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-25-19 | CS Bakersfield v. Southern Utah OVER 146.5 | 70-67 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Southern Utah average almost 80 ppg at home this season, and Im betting they hit that plateau here again, while CS Bakersfield does all they can to keep pace behind a offence tha taverages 71.2 ppg this season. CS Bakersfield averages 37.5 rebounds a game with Southern Utah averaging 36.8 rebound per game. Note: SOUTHERN UTAH is 14-4 OVER when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.2 ppg. SOUTHERN UTAH is 7-0 OVER in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons something they have just achieved with a combine average of 161.5 ppg going on the board. Play OVER | |||||||
03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia UNDER 127 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC Teams like Oklahoma and Virginia that play at a pace of 65 or less have gone under the total 61%+ of the time since the 2005 season. OKLAHOMA is 12-4 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. Neutral court teams against the total (OKLAHOMA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after a combined score of 165 points or more are 73-34 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-24-19 | Liberty v. Virginia Tech UNDER 125.5 | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA These teams played each other earlier this season with VTEch winning and both know what to expect. HC McKay of Liberty is a former Virginia assistant, and implements UVa’s Pack Line defense. Also heres a hint at what I expect as quoted from a Liberty players: QUOTE: “We’ll just try to play our style of basketball and not get lured into playing their style, … try not to get into more of an uptempo game,” END QUOTE: Flames guard Lovell Cabbil Jr. said. The Hokies focus defensively on keeping teams out of the paint and forcing foes to beat them from 3-point range and thats not easy, thus I can see this game staying on the lower side of the number. My projections based on both teams systems suggests a score that fails to eclipse this total. LIBERTY is 7-1 UNDER after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season. VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons VIRGINIA TECH is 83-59 UNDER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game since 1997. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-24-19 | UCF v. Duke OVER 143 | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC We all know the elite transition offence that Duke has lead by Zion Williamson. Also Duke has been a power house all season long from inside the arc, accumulating the 21st highest 2 point scoring conversion rate in the nation at 55.7% , and even with 7 "6 Taco Fall in the paint Im betting will still do a fair amount of damage offensively. On the flip side, the Blue Devils have have struggled in a 2 point defensive conversion rates allowing the 14th highest 2 [point scoring rate in the nation at 55.1%. Both these teams can play D, and both have similar length, but Im betting that the line is still just a tad to low and offers value to the over at up to 145. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UCF) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or less), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 50-23 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER | |||||||
03-24-19 | Washington v. North Carolina OVER 148 | 59-81 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH Alot of the public perceives the Washington Huskies as a slower paced defensive team, but when pushed as was the case against Utah State last time out, they can really rev up their pace. TodayIm expecting North Carolina to have a lot of offensive possessions thanks to their superior offensive rebounding ( Huskies rank 345th in the nation in O rebounding) .With that said look for the Huskies to have to run and gun to keep up here in a game the linesmakers expect will be a white wash favouring N.Carolina. WASHINGTON is 10-2 L/12 OVER in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season after 15+games with a combined average score of 158.4 ppg scored. Play OVER | |||||||
03-23-19 | Florida v. Michigan OVER 120 | 49-64 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 46 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Wells Fargo Arena - Des Moines, IA I know these teams play stringent defensive ball, but Im betting on them eclipsing this total based on my projections which estimate both will hit the 60 point plateau in a back and forth affair. Beilein is 90-59 OVER after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers as the coach of MICHIGAN. MICHIGAN is 12-4 OVER (after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half over the last 2 season. CBB teams where the total is 119.5 or less (MICHIGAN/FLORIDA) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%) are 60-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER | |||||||
03-23-19 | Maryland v. LSU UNDER 146.5 | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL Tigers can score, but their a below average team from beyond the arc. LSU shoots just 32.1 percent from downtown, which ranks No. 286 out of 353 Division I teams. With that said, Im betting Maryland slows down the explosive Tigers by derailing their transition game , and holding down their opponents from beyond the arc, which will translate into a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are expecting. MARYLAND is 11-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season with a combined average of 129.9 ppg scored. MARYLAND is 7-1 UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season with a combined average of 127.7 ppg going on the board. MARYLAND is 8-2 UNDER as an underdog this season with a combined average of 128.7 ppg scored. Turgeon is 7-0 UNDER after a game forcing opponent to commit 5 or less turnovers as the coach of MARYLAND with a combined average of 127.3 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (MARYLAND) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 237-161 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-22-19 | UCF v. VCU OVER 126.5 | 73-58 | Win | 100 | 60 h 24 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC UCF finished sixth in the conference in scoring (72.1 points) but were first in field-goal percentage (46.3) on 75.4 shooting from the floor behind college hoops super star Tacko Fall. I know VCU is a strong defensive side, but UCF can force anyone into a faster paced game then they like because of their ability to consistently convert and hold a lead. Score and chase is the call here and a combined score that goes over the set total. Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. UCF is 9-1 OVER off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.3 ppg. UCF HC Rhoades is 27-9 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (VA COMMONWEALTH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), on Friday nights are 32-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
03-22-19 | Drake v. Southern Utah OVER 150 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
College Insider Tournament - First Round Southern Utah average just under 80 points at home this season, while Drake has averaged 75.5 ppg. Im betting on those averages getting upheld here tonight and for this score to eclipse the total. SOUTHERN UTAH is 9-1 OVER in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Simon is 22-7 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5 in all games he has coached since 1997 833 Southern Utah .Drake OVER | |||||||
03-22-19 | Oregon v. Wisconsin UNDER 118 | 72-54 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 43 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA Wisconsin has been a defence first team all season long, but have been even more staunch defensively of late, allowing 59.6 ppg in their L/5 while scoring just 64 ppg on average. Im betting they once again force their pace on the Ducks and will drag their opponent into a ugly affair that will stay on the low side of the total. Oregon has allowed just 64.2 ppg on the road this season, and will have no problem elbowing their way through this tilt. WISCONSIN is 6-0 UNDER in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 114 ppg scored. Neutral court teams where the total is 119.5 or less (OREGON) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 31-7 UNDER L22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-22-19 | Gardner-Webb v. Virginia OVER 129 | 56-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Virginia were upset by Florida State by a 69-59 count in last week's ACC tournament semifinals. Now with a full week to rest and prepare and very healthy Im betting they come out like their hair is on fire and pound away with all guns blazing, which all by themselves will help this combined score go over the set total. Gardner Webb in turn will do just enough damage to get us to the promised land. Note:GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 OVER in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing a shooting pct defense of 42% or less this season with a combined average of 162.8 ppg scored . CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (GARDNER WEBB) - after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 23-4 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134,1 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (VIRGINIA) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, on Friday nights are 38-7 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play OVER | |||||||
03-22-19 | Colgate v. Tennessee UNDER 150 | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 93 h 48 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH Colgate score just 57 points in a DD loss to Syracuse in their non conferenc schedule, and Im betting they will have issues scoring here vs Tennessee. My projections estimate a total combined score in the mid 140 range, this giving us value on the under. COLGATE is 9-1 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 135 ppg scored.Langel is 8-0 UNDER in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or better as the coach of COLGATE with a combined average of 132.2 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 10-2 UNDER in the first round of the NCAA tournament with a combined average of 138.5 ppg. TENNESSEE is 6-0 UNDER after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 137 ppg. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (COLGATE) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in March games are 66-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State OVER 118 | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Kansas State can play a top tier of hoops but they will be tested by a UC Irvine team that can put points up in a hurry. In 3 of their L/5 fames thye had outputs of 110, 86, 92 points and could easily force Kansas State out of their comfort zone and into a faster paced game they would like, KANSAS ST is 6-0 OVER as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 155.3 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (KANSAS ST) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Friday are 26-4 OVER L/25 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova OVER 129.5 | 57-61 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Round - XL Center - Hartford, CT St.Marys might of shutdown Gonzaga last time out , for a huge 60-47 win, but Im betting they wont be able to the same thing to Villanova. Its one thing to play a tough defensive game in their own conference, against a team they were built to compete against, but limiting this Wildcats group will be more challenging and Im betting the Gaels will be forced to have to open up or get completely blown off the floor. I know the Gaels are a trendy pick here by public bettors after the above mentioned upset of Gonzaga, and that their defensive play is a key to this total being this low, but all of that will go out the window, vs a Villanova side that can knock treys down at a 35%+ clip against much stiffer competition in the Big East and that brain bang you with multiple looks. VILLANOVA is 11-4 OVER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 146.1 ppg. VILLANOVA is 13-4 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 154.5 ppg scored. Play on the OVER | |||||||
03-21-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Charleston Southern OVER 141.5 | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
College Insider Tournament - First Round These teams are trending under on a base line total that does not project properly according to a team system vs system matchup power rankings system that I use. The lines-makers know how the public perceives these types of team Totals trends and plays to public sentiment. 'Ill take a contrarian view based on my own estimations which lean to this Total being eclipsed. FLA ATLANTIC is 10-2 OVER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 143.9 ppg scored. Play on the OVER | |||||||
03-20-19 | Norfolk State v. Alabama OVER 143 | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
NIT - First Round Alabama is a team that averages nearly 72 points per game , and against this level of opponent Im projecting they will breach that total number in around the 77+ range. Meanwhile the Norfolk State Spartans are one of the top three points teams in the country from a conversion rate perspective, shooting 39.3 percent from 3-point range over the L/22 games (184-of-468). Another important factor for a over wager here is 551 free throws and 771 attempts are the second most in the D-I era and Im projecting them to score in the mid to upper 60s which translates to a total according to my estimations of a 145.5 or more giving us value with a over wager. Play on the OVER | |||||||
03-20-19 | North Carolina Central v. North Dakota State UNDER 135 | 74-78 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 39 m | Show | |
NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH These teams play a controlled type of game, and if they were boxers they would be considered counter punchers. Im expecting a medium paced game especially in transition which will equate to a total combined score that remains on the low side of the total. NC CENTRAL is 17-6 UNDER in all neutral court games with a combined average of 125.6 ppg scored. NC CENTRAL in their L/25 in all tournament games have seen a combined average of 128.1 ppg scored.Moton is 8-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games as the coach of NC CENTRAL. with a combined average of 126.3 ppg scored.Moton is 16-4 UNDER off a win against a conference rival as the coach of NC CENTRAL with a combined average of 128.3 ppg. N DAKOTA ST is 8-0 UNDER L/8as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points with a combined average of 121.5 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (N DAKOTA ST) - off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 24-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple UNDER 155.5 | 81-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Buy in games with a total of 130 or over have gone under 72% of the time in th history of the NCAA tournament. Its a do or die-situation so teams have a tendency of being conservative and this one sets up for a closely contested lower scoring affair. BELMONT is 13-4 UNDER in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.8 ppg scored.BELMONT is 9-1 UNDER after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season with a combined average of 146.3 ppg scored. TEMPLE is 8-1 UNDER after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 127.5 ppg scored. ( They lost their reg season finale 74-80) Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-19-19 | Campbell v. NC-Greensboro OVER 143.5 | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
NIT - First Round Campbell has seen 4 of their L/5 games entering the NIT go over the total, with the combined score of those tilts ringing in at 149.2 ppg. UNC Greensboro has been explosive offensively at home this season averaging 78.6 ppg and from a matchup systems power rankings system I use for totals projections should be ready to pour down points again, with Campbell capably chasing which Im betting results in a higher scoring game then the lines makers are expecting. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CAMPBELL) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games are 69-34 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. OVER | |||||||
03-17-19 | Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State UNDER 137.5 | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Sunbelt Conference Tournament - Championship Game - New Orleans, LA According to my projections this tilt sets up to be a real battle in the trenches which Im betting directly effects the offensive output of this tilt. GEORGIA ST is 7-0 UNDER as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 12-3 UNDER in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. TX-ARLINGTON is 14-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season. GEORGIA ST is 15-4 UNDER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or better of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. CBBNeutral court teams against the total (TX-ARLINGTON) - excellent FT shooting team (73% or better ) against an average FT shooting team (65-69%) after 15+ game are 107-52 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-17-19 | Auburn v. Tennessee UNDER 147 | 84-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Im betting this SEC championship game will be alot more physical and defensively conservative than what the lines-makers total is projecting, because both sides are on tired legs with this now being their 3rd game in 5 days . The public expects two explosive offensive teams to go head to head in a high octane event, but Im betting on chess like match that results in a combined score in the 142-144 range, thus giving us value on a slightly bloated line. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-16-19 | St. Louis v. Davidson UNDER 129 | 67-44 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
The last time these teams played this season Davidson came away with a 54-53 win. Now in attempt to duplicate that last effort I expect St.Louis to try to slow this game down to a grind, as they try to take away Davidsons offensive flow, much like thye did vs St.Joes last time out allowing just 55 points .Im betting Davidson behind a solid defence of their own will comply with a physical stance in what will be a game of attrition with very little scoring. Davidson has kept 3 of their L/4 opponents to under 60 points or less. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-15-19 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin UNDER 127 | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Big Ten Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Chicago, IL Im expecting a very physical Big 10 affair that stays on the low side of the Total. WISCONSIN is 9-2 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average odf123 pig scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (WISCONSIN) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, on Friday games are 32-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Wisconsin/ Nebraska UNDER | |||||||
03-14-19 | La Salle v. Rhode Island UNDER 137.5 | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Brooklyn, NY Both these teams have averaged under 70 points in offensive output this season, and both exhibit long stretches of below average FG conversion rates. With that being an early start game, Im betting those outputs will be exasperated and exaggerated in a physical low energy environment that will see this game stay under the set total. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (RHODE ISLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential) are 30-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 129.1 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-13-19 | California v. Colorado UNDER 139 | 51-56 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
California enters this game playing possibly their best hoops of the season, and have held their last two opponents 69, and 59 point outputs. In a surprising road victory vs the Buffs back in January the former Bad News Bears sprung the 68-59 upset and now have a success-full defensive blue print that should see this game played similarly to the first one and a total score that is also similar. COLORADO is 8-0 UNDER after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite this season with a combined average of 135 ppg scored. CALIFORNIA is 12-1 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 season with a combined average of 131.8 ppg going on the board.
642 Colorado/ California UNDER | |||||||
03-12-19 | Northeastern v. Hofstra OVER 145 | 82-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
Colonial Conference Tournament - Championship Game - Charleston, SC Hofstra is a prolific offensive teams averaging more than 83 ppg and wont be stopped here as Northeastern will have to open up something they are capable of doing as they average 78.3 ppg in conference action this season. HOFSTRA 8 games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season a combined average of 152.1 ppg scored.HOFSTRA is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 165.5 ppg scored . Play OVER | |||||||
03-12-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech OVER 126.5 | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
ACC Conference Tournament - First Round - Charlotte, NC Georgia Tech enters todays game against Notre Dame off two consecutive wins vs Boston College (81-78 in overtime at home) and NC State (63-61 on the road) . In an attempt to make of offense more productive, Georgia Tech returned to a one-post starting alignment for its last seven games, with James Banks III starting in the middle with four perimeter players. It has invigorated and buoyed the Yellow Jackets’ to their four highest point totals since Jan. 12 and three of its best shooting efforts since Jan. 22. Tech has averaged 64.0 points, hit 43.7 percent of hits field goals and 34.3 percent of its three-point shots in its last seven games, compared to 53.9 points, 38.2 percent from the floor and 23.8 percent on threes in the previous eight games and I expect them to push the pace again and make Notre Dame come out of their shell and put points on the board as well. Over is 4-1 in Yellow Jackets last 5 neutral site games. GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 142.7 ppg. GEORGIA TECH L/19 games when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons . as seen a combined average score of 133.6 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (NOTRE DAME) - cold team - having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 40-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. CBBNeutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (GEORGIA TECH) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a for 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
03-07-19 | Fairfield v. Manhattan UNDER 121 | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
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03-07-19 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 126.5 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
These teams have. along history of playing low scoring defensive affairs with 10 of the L/11 games going under the set total with the L/5 here in Central Florida all going under the set Total. Considering both teams have shut down defences there is no reason to believe that this game will also be fairly low scoring and stay under the number. UCF is 8-1 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 111.3 ppg scored.UCF is 15-4 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 124.1 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 120.3 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CINCINNATI) - after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 34-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 610 Central Florida /Cincinnati UNDER | |||||||
03-04-19 | Kennesaw State v. Lipscomb UNDER 147.5 | 71-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and overall head to head team system and player vs player analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. The Owls are last in the ASUN averaging 63.2 PPG, with my projections estimating a near 10 point drop off vs Lipscomb. The Owls dont have any chance here of competing against this explosive opponent unless they slow this tilt down to a crawl which Im betting effects the combined score to the low side of he offered number. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
02-27-19 | Louisville v. Boston College OVER 140 | 59-66 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Louisville has been struggling to score of late, but this is a good opportunity to get some posiitve offensive production as Boston is a team that has allowed 72.1 ppg at home this season. The Cardinal beat the Eagles 80-70 back on the Jan 16 this of this season, and now Im expecting a similar offensive output in the rematch. BOSTON COLLEGE is 16-3 OVER revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons and is 11-1 OVER revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON COLLEGE is 17-4 OVER as a home underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons. LOUISVILLE is 6-0 OVER in road games after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. CBB home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 104-61 OVER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER | |||||||
02-24-19 | Michigan State v. Michigan UNDER 130.5 | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
This is going to be a behemoth and very physical conference battle involving two stop tier defensive teams that dont like each other very much. The Spartans love the run and gun out of transition , but Michigan is a team built to slow the most explosive sides in the nation down. With all the Spartans injuries, I doubt they will be is fluid as usual and instead be hell bent on delivering heavy elbows in the paint and trying to find a way to win by making life difficult for Teske and drawing him into foul trouble. This Im betting will see a much lower scoring tilt than then the linesmakers and public expect. MICHIGAN ST is 9-0 UNDER off 2 straight wins against conference rivals this seasonMICHIGAN is 9-1 UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games this season. CBB Road teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or more) are 55-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
02-24-19 | Villanova v. Xavier OVER 136 | 54-66 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
This is the second and final regular-season meeting between the teams. Villanova won 85-75 on its home court Jan. 18 and Im expecting a out put of at least 142 points here according to my projections , which is a full 6 points higher than this offered Total which makes for a strong value call here to the OVER. Note: Four of the L/5 meetings here at Xavier have gone OVER. The OVER is 5-1 in Musketeers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 39-18 in Musketeers last 57 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. XAVIER is 18-5 OVER L/23 in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games with a combined average score of 153.3 ppg scored. Play on the OVER | |||||||
02-23-19 | VMI v. Western Carolina OVER 156.5 | 83-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
When these teams met back on Jan 19, they took part in a high scoring affair, that resulted in a 91-83 output of 174 points. Im betting on a similar back forth high scoring affair here today that eclipses this Total. W CAROLINA is 9-1 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games with a combined average of 169.5 pig scored with a combined average of 162.9 ppp going on the board. VMI is 13-3 OVER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. VMI is 8-0 OVER after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog this season with a combined average of 166.6 ppg scored. CBB Road teams against the total (VMI) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games are 100-62 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
02-21-19 | College of Charleston v. William & Mary OVER 145.5 | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My projections have made this total closer to 149.5 -150 this according to my estimates we have value on this offered totals number. Both these teams are lighting it up offensively of late, and nothing Im betting will change tonight. Coll of Charleston has scored 83 or more points in 4 straight games. William Mary has scored 84 or more points in 3 of their L/4 overall. WM & MARY is 8-0 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 180.1 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 9-0 OVER in home games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 173.3 ppg scored. WM & MARY is 12-0 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with. combined average of 175 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 14-2 OVER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 172.5 ppg scored. COLL OF CHARLESTON is 12-3 OVER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157.6 ppg going on the score board. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games are 68-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
02-20-19 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech UNDER 128.5 | 65-73 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Gtech plays basketball at a methodical pace, behind a offence that can't produce with any consistency, and thus their games consistently go under as is evident by 9 of the L/10 staying below the offered totals number. Meanwhile, Pittsburghs strength is their ability to play decent defence, and have allowed just 67.2 ppg on the road this season while their offence has converted for under 67 ppg on the road while shooting a lowly 39.4 % from the Field. These teams most recent meetings have all stayed below this offered Total with a combined average of 118.6 ppg scored, and Im betting a similar output tonight. PITTSBURGH is 20-6 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 20-8 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 10-1 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season with a combined average of 122.9 ppg scored. Pastner is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of GEORGIA TECH with a combined average of 121 ppg scored. 818 Georgia Tech / Pitt UNDER | |||||||
02-20-19 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 128 | 49-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Northwestern is ranked first in the Big Ten and 12th nationally in three-point field goal defense, holding teams to 29.6 percent, with Ohio State sporting two top 15 down town shooters in their lineup this will be a pivotal factor in muting a lot of the Buckeyes scoreboard out put, which in turn will directly contribute to this being a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. Note: Northwestern D has allowed 59 points exact in 3 of their L/4 games and should once again be hard to score on here behind top tier rebounding work. Ohio Stats D, is also in top form having allowed 52,63-62 respectively in their L/3 tips to the hardwood. with all three going under the set total. Tonight Im betting this will be a hardcore physical defensive battle that stays under the set total. NORTHWESTERN is 16-4 UNDER after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 126.2 ppg scored and s 6-0 UNDER after playing a game as a road underdog this season with a combined average 121 ppg scored. NORTHWESTERN is 8-0 UNDER after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 125.4 ppg going on the board. CBB Home teams against the total (OHIO ST) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 38-17 UNDER L22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 814 Ohio State /Northwestern UNDER | |||||||
02-19-19 | St. Peter's v. Siena OVER 116 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
When these teams played back on January 3rd they combined for 125 points. Im betting on a similar output here today. It must also be noted that Siena is off a 107-100 offensive slugfest last time out, and could easily still be a run and gun mood here vs a St.Peters team allowing more than 70 ppg on the road this season. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (SIENA) - off a home loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (20-40%) are 35-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road teams where the total is 119.5 or less (ST PETERS) - after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
02-17-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 140 | 85-50 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
In its most recent action, Tulane (4-19) dropped an 80-57 decision against Tulsa in New Orleans on Thursday. there D, was atrocious in that game, and Im betting Houston(24-1) will light them up here today, and Tulane will chase , which in turn will make for a high scoring affair that eclipses this total. The last two meetings in this series went over the total, and 7 of the L/9 meetings overall. TULANE is 11-2 OVER after 2 straight losses by 15 points or more and is 8-1 OVER in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 152 pp scored.HOUSTON is 21-9 OVER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (HOUSTON) - off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 45-11 OVER L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play OVER | |||||||
02-16-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 131 | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Both these teams can play hardcore defense , as is evident by the Cats ranking 36th in the nation allowing 64.8 PPG, and 18th vs the downtown 3-ball at 29.7%.On offence Northwestern ranks 300th ranked scoring offense and will once again struggle to score here vs a Huskers side that are ranked 18th in the nation allowing teams to score only 63.4 PPG, and rank 29th in the nation allowing the opposition to make just 40.2% of their FGs. Everything points to this being a fairly low scoring affair base don my own totals projections. NEBRASKA is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. NEBRASKA is 9-1 UNDER vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.NEBRASKA is 9-1 UNDER after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. NORTHWESTERN is 23-12 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 season.NORTHWESTERN is 7-0 UNDER after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 10-3 UNDER against conference opponents this season.NORTHWESTERN is 20-9 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons. 740 Nebraska/ Northwestern UNDER | |||||||
02-14-19 | Northern Arizona v. Portland State UNDER 151 | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Portland State has revenge on board for a 82-75 loss back in January to Northern Arizona . In the past PORTLAND ST is 7-1 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average score of with a combined average of 145.5 ppg. PORTLAND ST is 11-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is 150 to 154.5. Under is 5-1 in Lumberjacks last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 Thursday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 vs. Big Sky.Under is 19-7 in Vikings last 26 overall.Under is 8-3 in Vikings last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 9-4 in Vikings last 13 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Portland St..Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Play UNDER | |||||||
02-13-19 | St. Louis v. George Washington UNDER 130 | 73-58 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
St. Louis was blown out last time out vs St.Jospehs 91-61 and now Im betting they get back to playing a more solid brand of defence here this Wednesday night vs a George Washington side that averages 64.2 ppg in offence this season. SAINT LOUIS is 6-0 UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 114.4 ppg. SAINT LOUIS is 8-1 UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 3 seasons . 784 George Washington /St. Louis UNDER | |||||||
02-08-19 | Princeton v. Yale UNDER 139.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Yale hosts first-place Princeton on Friday in a game I have projected as staying under this offered total. Yale ranks high in the nation in field goal percentage defense (35th, 40.4 percent). Meanwhile, Princetons key to success this season, has been by playing physical defence and conservative type of transition basketball, that has resulted in most ly low scoring offensive outputs by themselves and their opponents. Princeton has really stepped up their defensive play of late , as is evident by allowing an average of 58.3 ppg in their L/6 games with all of them staying under the total. Today against a viable offensive threat in theBulldogs, Im expecting the visitors to be even more vigilant and will make a concerted effort to turn this into a mud wrestling affair in the trenches. This Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers might expect. PRINCETON is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season . YALE is 9-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons. PRINCETON is 11-2 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons. Yale/ Princeton UNDER | |||||||
02-07-19 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Grand Canyon UNDER 136 | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
GCU (14-7, 7-1 WAC) enters the game against UTRGV (12-12, 4-4 WAC) on its best roll of the season. The Lopes have won five games in a row, posted four consecutive double-digit victories and return to an arena where they have a 16-game regular-season home winning streak.GCU is 7-1 in WAC play because of its defense, ranking first in the conference for points allowed per game (60.9) and opponent field goal percentage (40.8) to easily have the top scoring margin (plus-14.9) after playing each team once.I expect they will once again play lock down defence, which will effect the total score to the down side here this evening in a game that I have projected to stay under the set total. Grand Canyon /UT Rio Grande Valley UNDER | |||||||
02-07-19 | Monmouth v. St. Peter's UNDER 125 | 53-51 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
When these teams met earlier this season they took part in a very low scoring defensive affair, with a combined 105 points going on the board. Behind the rim protection of Samuel Idowu, KC Ndefo, and Derrick Woods, Saint Peter's leads the MAAC in blocked shots, rejecting 4.6 shots per game and play a defence first style of basketball that is slow in transition. Through the first five MAAC games, Saint Peter's did not allow an opponent to score more than 63 points in a game (Siena – 60, Monmouth – 61, Fairfield – 60, Marist – 63, Manhattan – 58) and more of th same action is on board for tonight vs a Monmouth side that averages just 63.3 ppg in offence on the road. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE is my call here and a total combined score that fails to eclipse this total. MONMOUTH is 7-1 UNDER versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season.ST PETERS is 6-0 UNDER off 3 straight losses against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons with. combined average of115 ppg scored.
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02-05-19 | Valparaiso v. Illinois State UNDER 132 | 69-53 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Both these teams play defence first basketball systems and both do a minimal amount of damage offensively. Valpo won the most recent meeting 58-56 win at the ARC for Valpo on January 2 and Im betting on another low scoring hard fought affair here in the rematch. VALPARAISO is 9-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average score of 126 ppg scored.ILLINOIS ST is 16-5 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 126.5 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
02-03-19 | Georgetown v. Villanova OVER 155 | 65-77 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
The last three meetings in this series, has seen Villanova eclipse the 80 point plateau in point production , and they scored 97 and 88 points in the two most recent meetings vs Gtown. Currently Villanova has scored 80 points for more in 5 straight while Georgetown has scored 83.2 ppg on a average this season, and has allowed 78.1 ppg in a uptempo take no prisoners style of play. The Hoyas have eclipsed the 80 point plateau in 9 of their L/11 and have a couple 100+ outputs. The Wildcats have dropped in 32 from beyond the arc in their last two games and their hitting on all cylinders and will come at Georgetown on all cylinders here, and Gtown will have no choice but to reciprocate with some fireworks of their own or be blown off the court in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. VILLANOVA is 11-1 OVER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or better of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 167.7 ppg scored. GEORGETOWN is 6-0 OVER after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season with a combined average of 163 ppg. CBB Home teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (VILLANOVA) - a top-level team (80% or better) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 93-60 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER | |||||||
02-02-19 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 158.5 | 64-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Sometimes when handicapping games we put to much into the current form of both defences and offences, rather than certain matchup situations, such as system vs system analysis and the need by individual teams to be more offensively or defensively aggressive. This matchup features a Central Michigan team the that struggles at both ends of the court, vs a home team that lies to run and gun. these two alternative systems, have proven in the past to be good under wager opportunities using certain criteria. Note: CBB Home teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (C MICHIGAN) - a very good team (+8 or more PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after a win by 6 points or less are 28-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.( Central Michigan is off a hard fought 86-82 win vs E.Michigan last time out, and will be in an a natural letdown situation vs a side that I sure their not inspired by which Im betting results in a tilt with a lot less offensive fireworks the some might expect). W MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER in road games vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 138.2 ppg scored. Hawkins is 10-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games as the coach of W MICHIGAN with a combined average of 132.4 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
02-02-19 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 128.5 | 46-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
These teams systems will make for a game that Im betting sees this combined score stay on the low side of the Total. I also expect Virginia after allowing 16 steals vs nC State last time out in OT win to get back to basics and what makes them great ( DEFENCE). HC Bennet was not happy with their performance and with North Carolina and Duke on board in the next 10 days this will be a perfect time to practice some shut down D. Miami has problems scoring, and today that situation will be exacerbated . Meanwhile,Miami will Im betting be ultra conservative here in an effort to be competitive which will also contribute to what Im betting will be a successful under wager in this spot. VIRGINIA is 17-4 UNDER off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 117.7 ppg scored.( Virginia beat NC State in OT last time out) CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (VIRGINIA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 131-75 L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER | |||||||
02-01-19 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 133 | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
The Badgers have won three straight games thanks to playing some top tier D, and on the season are yielding just 61.5 points per game . Note:WISCONSIN is 8-1 UNDER in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of 129 ppg going on the board. Im betting more hardcore conservative defensive action will be on the Badgers agenda again tonight against a dangerous Maryland side, that is off allowing just 52 points in a win vs Northwestern last time out. Maryland took a 64-60 win when these teams met earlier this season, and Im betting on more of the same type of action here and a total combined score that will resemble the last altercation between these Big 10 sides. WISCONSIN is 8-2 UNDER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 126.4 ppg scored. WISCONSIN is 26-5 UNDER off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. WISCONSIN is 10-1 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 124.1 ppg scored.WISCONSIN is 7-0 UNDER vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 125.8 ppg scored. MARYLAND is 10-2 UNDER versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 130.3 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MARYLAND) - off a home win against a conference rival against opponent after allowing 55 points or less in a win against a conference rival. are 81-41 UNDER L/22 seasons for a67% conversion rate for bettors. Wisconsin/Maryland UNDER | |||||||
01-30-19 | Air Force v. San Diego State UNDER 140 | 51-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate this total to be closer to 134, thus giving us value according to those estimates on a under wager. These teams/programs have played 5 times over the 3 seasons with non of the tilts combined scores eclipsing this number. The combined average score of those games clicks in at 114 ppg, with the lowest combined score at 89 points and the highest scoring game at 131. Both schools hoops programs run essentially the same system options as they did in the above mentioned previous matchups, and when going head to head these kinds of results have a high frequency of repeating themselves within these totals perimeters. AIR FORCE is 25-6 UNDER L/31 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with a combined average of 117.5 ppg scored.SAN DIEGO ST is 23-7 L/30 UNDER in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 with a combined average of 130.6 ppg scored.
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01-29-19 | Pittsburgh v. Clemson UNDER 138.5 | 69-82 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh plays a real tough brand of man to man defence, and on offence they're not a team that shoots 3s constantly, so putting points on the board in bunches is not their current modus operandi. Clemson does not defend the trey well, which will be a blessing for them here tonight. Meanwhile, Clemson is a side that is struggling to score consistently, and have only breached the 70 point plateau once in their L/6 games and Im betting will struggle to put points on the board again, in a tilt that I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. My own projections set this total at 132. Thus giving us value according to my estimates on a under wager. PITTSBURGH is 9-0 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 127.5 ppg going on the scoreboard and is 6-0 UNDER versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 127 ppg scored and is 19-4 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 131.8 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 13-0 UNDER after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 131 ppg scored in those tilts. Clemson HC Brownell is 16-5 UNDER L/21 after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog in all games with a combined average of 117.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
01-26-19 | Illinois v. Maryland UNDER 145.5 | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a Terrapins team that averages 75.6 points per game but is coming off a game in which it tied its lowest offensive output of the season and lost and Im betting their struggles stretch into this game vs a team that will look to down and dirty here in an effort to be competitive.MARYLAND is 9-2 UNDER off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 135.6 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER | |||||||
01-24-19 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati OVER 134 | 64-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Cincinnati defeated Tulsa 70-65 on the road last time out, and will Im betting score north of 75+ points today while, Tulsa chases in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this Total. CINCINNATI is 11-1 OVER in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 145.4 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 12-1 OVER in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons and s 6-0 OVER in home games after allowing 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of 143.7 ppg scored.(Cinn beat Wichita State 64-55 last time out) Prior to that last game the Bcats averaged 80 ppg during a 7 game span. CBB teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (TULSA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a close road loss by 3 points or less are 44-14 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
01-19-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Charlotte OVER 129.5 | 40-55 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Both these teams play defence first basketball, but according to my numbers the Total is off by close to 5 points on the low side as the linebackers over adjust according to public perceptions and trends. My Totals data suggests this tilt should be closer to 134 to 135. Thus giving us value according to my projections. Konkol in his L/18 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days as the coach of LOUISIANA TECH has seen combined average of 146 ppg scored.LOUISIANA TECH in their L/9 after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 140.9 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE in their L/45 games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 149.4 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two love average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games are 58-25 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
01-18-19 | St. Joe's v. St. Louis UNDER 134.5 | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
St.Louis plays a methodical conservative type of hoops especially at home , where they are 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite or pick this season with a combined average score of 129.4 ppg and is 6-0 UNDER in home games after playing a game as favorite this season, with a combined average of just 122.8 ppg scored. When St.Louis played St.Jospehs last season both games were well below this set total with 119 and 121 points outputs and Im betting on a similar outcome here tonight. Note: St.Jospehs offensive flow in transition is being tested in a big way as injuries to Pierfrancesco Oliva and Lamarr Kimble test the team in a big way . Defence becomes highly important if the Hawks want to be competitive here which adds credence to this being a lower scoring game between jesuit rivals. Saint Louis is 17th in the NCAA in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. The Billikens lead the A-10 in scoring defense, yielding 62.5 ppg. CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ST JOSEPHS) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 24-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 126 ppg. Play UNDER | |||||||
01-17-19 | Arkansas State v. Texas-Arlington OVER 139.5 | 59-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My Totals estimates for this game are closer to 142.5 to143 this according to those projections give us value with an over wager . Arkansas State plays a much more wide open style of hoops then Texas Arlington scoring average 75.2 ppg on offence and have allowed north of 83 ppg in 10 road games . Arlington when pushed can light up the board and had 82 points vs App State recently and Im betting they will be pushed tonight and will do significant offensive damage in a tit that Im betting eclipses this Total. ARKANSAS ST is 26-12 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 since 1997 with a combined average score of 144.2 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ARKANSAS ST) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more are 63-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER | |||||||
01-15-19 | St. Louis v. Fordham OVER 120.5 | 63-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Both these teams are methodical defence first teams, but according to my projections the number has been chiseled down by almost 5 points by the lines-makers in accordance with public perceptions . Im not betting that we wont see a physical grinding game, Im just estimating the combined score will eclipse this offer. Line value resides with an OVER wager. St.Louis and their opponents in their 15 games this season have seen a combined average of 130.1 ppg scored. Fordham has seen a combined average of 131.6 ppg scored in their games this season. FORDHAM in their L/11 games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 127 ppg scored. FORDHAM is 13-2 OVER after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games with a combined average of 141.2 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (SAINT LOUIS) - good defensive team (40-42.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 140.6 ppg scored. Play OVER | |||||||
01-13-19 | Rider v. Niagara OVER 159.5 | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
These teams play fast paced hoops. Rider can score efficiently averaging 77 ppg on average but their defence is atrocious allowing 82+ ppg. Meanwhile, Niagara averages 78.3 ppg at home, while allowing 75.9 ppg in slightly elevated action. When these types of teams meet they usually feed off the others energy which Im this afternoon results in a fairly high scoring game that eclipses the total. NIAGARA is 10-2 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combine average of 168.9 ppg scored. NIAGARA is 13-2 OVER when the total is 159.5 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 176.2 ppg scored.NIAGARA is 9-0 OVER in a home game where the total is 160 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combine average of 181. 9 ppg. Home teams against the total (NIAGARA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 4 straight games are 24-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 164.9 ppg scored. Play OVER | |||||||
01-13-19 | Marist v. St. Peter's OVER 126 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total should be closer 131, thus giving us value on this line. Marist has gone over in 3 straight games, and have upped their pace from earlier in the season. Today vs a methodical St.Peters team Im betting they continue to speed things up, which will force their opponent into a opening up a bit themselves. This Im betting results in a combined score that eclipses this beatable total. MARIST is 12-3 OVER after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (MARIST) - off a home loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a struggling team (20-40%) are 30-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 135.4 ppg scored. Play OVER | |||||||
01-10-19 | Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic OVER 124 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
After watching this get bet down from 128 Im betting we have alot of value here according to 133 total combined point projections. FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 OVER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 150 ppg scored OLD DOMINION is 6-0 OVER in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 158.9 ppg and is 13-3 OVER in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 140.1 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (FLA ATLANTIC) - poor shooting team - shooting 42% or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse are 54-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
01-09-19 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142.5 | 53-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate that these teams will combined for 146+ points here tonight thus giving value on this totals line. It must be noted Nevada got steamrolled by New Mexico 85-58 last time out, and will be very ready here to get back some lost respect and with that I expect they will mercilessly come at San Jose State and just keep pouring the points down, which will result in a much faster paced higher scoring game than the lines makers expect. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (NEVADA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 60 points or less 2 straight games are 24-4 OVER with a combined average of 154.3 ppg scored. CBBRoad teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (SAN JOSE ST) - after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 29-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |