Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over BYU at 9:30 pm et on Friday. BYU remains undefeated on the season but after laying two touchdowns or more in three consecutive layups against inferior opposition, it will face a tough test on the road against Houston on Friday. With Houston having played just once it's not easy to for the oddsmakers to set an accurate line for this one and I feel they've missed the mark. QB Clayton Tune wasn't at his best in last week's rout of Tulane, but still managed to throw a pair of touchdown passes and run for another while amassing over 300 yards through the air. BYU certainly looked flat in last week's narrow 27-20 win over Texas-San Antonio. The Cougars will be taking a considerable step up in class here and I look for them to fall short of the mark in terms of the pointspread. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Game 5 on Friday night had very much the look of a 'last stand' of sorts from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Left exhausted at the end of that thrilling affair, I'm not convinced the Heat can keep pace with the Lakers for four quarters on Sunday night. Lebron James' critics have once again come out of the woodwork following that missed opportunity to close this series out in Game 5 - despite his 40-point, 13-rebound performance. I certainly expect another positive response from Lebron (and perhaps more importantly, his supporting cast) here. The Lakers have essentially controlled this series from the jump and I'm not going to knock them for slipping up in their first shot at closing out the series on Friday. Miami has shown plenty of resiliency throughout these playoffs and has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out'. However, now we're dealing with a very reasonable price to back what is sure to be a determined Lakers squad eager to bring an end to 'bubble life' and deliver the Larry O'Brien trophy back to Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs -11 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Chiefs, even as they play on a short week following Monday's sleepy win over the undermanned Patriots. Las Vegas has fallen on hard times following a hot start, and it's had everything to do with its schedule - which certainly doesn't get any easier here. I don't like the look of the Raiders offense right now at all, with RB Josh Jacobs stuck running behind a weak offensive line, and QB Derek Carr once again struggling to generate any productive plays down the field. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should feast on a Raiders defense that can't stop the run (they're giving up over five yards per rush this season) and are average against the pass. TE Travis Kelce should go off in this contest as he has traditionally owned the Raiders defense. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for the Cardinals, who have largely been a disappointment to this point. With the Jets getting torched for over 4.5 yards per rush look for the Cards to go back to basics offensively and lean on their ground attack here. That should serve to open things up for QB Kyler Murray, whose best days almost certainly lie ahead of him following a tough start to the season. The Jets have literally zero upside at this point and this could very well be Adam Gase's final game as head coach. If they weren't able to keep up with the Brett Rypien-led Broncos last Thursday night, they're unlikely to stick with Kliff Kingsbury's Cards here. With veteran statue QB Joe Flacco taking over under center, Arizona will have no excuses for not containing a below average Jets offense. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
10-10-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International -5.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Saturday. Middle Tennessee State has proven to be one of the weakest teams in the nation this season, opening with four straight ugly losses. Things don't figure to get much easier against an FIU squad that will be looking for its first victory as well on Saturday afternoon. The difference is, the Panthers have played just one game. They came close in that contest, falling in a wild 36-34 contest against favored Liberty. That was back on September 26th. They've had an extra week off to prepare and should be ready for whatever MTSU throws at them on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers will certainly have revenge on their minds after falling by a 50-17 score against the Blue Raiders a year ago. This should prove to be a much different matchup. Take Florida International (10*). | |||||||
10-10-20 | Tennessee v. Georgia -12 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Tennessee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon as they aim to remain undefeated in SEC play. While Tennessee checks in with an identical 2-0 record to that of Georgia, the Vols wins have come against the likes of South Carolina and Missouri. They'll be taking a major step up in class in this one. Georgia hasn't allowed a touchdown since the first five minutes of its season-opener against Arkansas two weeks ago. After struggling to get going in that contest, we saw the Bulldogs offense show signs of cohesion in last Saturday's 27-6 rout of Auburn. While there's certainly a look-ahead involved here as Georgia will travel to face Alabama next week, I believe that has been more than factored into this line. Look for the 'Dawgs defense to set the tone early and for their offense to ultimately come up with enough big play to put the game away late. Take Georgia (10*). | |||||||
10-10-20 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -3 | 45-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. This line has come down into our play range as the Tar Heels host the Hokies on Saturday afternoon. North Carolina is off to a 2-0 start but didn't look at that impressive in its most recent victory over Boston College. This is an opportunity for the Tar Heels to make a real statement in ACC play against undefeated Virginia Tech. The Hokies are coming off an unimpressive single touchdown win over what had previously been a lifeless Duke squad. I'm just not convinced the Virginia Tech offense can keep up for four quarters against a North Carolina team that is underrated on both sides of the football in my opinion. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We know what we're getting with Tulane. The Green Wave are off to a 2-1 start with their lone loss coming in a stunning blown 24-0 halftime lead against Navy. Tulane successfully bounced back from that disappointing loss, delivering a 66-24 win over Southern Miss. Now the Green Wave come in well rested having not played since posting that blowout victory on September 26th. Meanwhile, we don't really know what we're going to get from Houston. The Cougars will be playing their first game of the season and I'm willing to bet that they might not be as good as advertised, or as the betting marketplace believes anyway. I'll grab all the points I can get in this Thursday night matchup. Take Tulane (10*). | |||||||
10-04-20 | Ravens -13 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Ravens, who obviously have a bad taste in their mouths following Monday's dismantling at the hands of the Chiefs. Washington has been competitive in two of its three games this season, even winning one of them (we cashed with Washington in its Week 1 win over Philadelphia), but there have been some major red flags raised over the last two weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins is looking less and less like the answer for this offense, although he hasn't had much help from his supporting cast outside of WR Terry McLaurin. Here, he faces an elite Baltimore defense that is far better than it showed against Kansas City's 'next-level' offense on Monday night. The Ravens offense is in position to roll against a suddenly injury-plagued Washington defense that lost Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young last Sunday. Note that Washington has allowed nearly 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns through three games this season. Its secondary is arguably its weakest point and I'm confident Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will take full advantage of that leaky back-end in this one. With their next game coming at home against the winless Bengals next week, there's no reason for the Ravens to look past Washington. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida -21 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This game has blowout written all over it as Central Florida looks to move to 3-0 on the season. The Knights haven't been particularly sharp, or not as sharp as they'd like to be, on the defensive side of the football but they draw a terrific 'get right' matchup here. Tulsa has played just one game so far this season, falling in a very low-scoring affair against Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Credit the Golden Hurricane for keeping the Cowboys offense at bay in that contest but if their offensive performance (minus RB Shamari Brooks) was any indication, they could be in for a long year. Tulsa actually upset Central Florida by a 34-31 last season so revenge will be on the minds of the Knights here. UCF already appears to be in midseason form offensively after routing East Carolina last Saturday. QB Dillon Gabriel has been extremely efficient and consistent through two games, passing for 825 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. I don't need to tell you that the Knights offense is absolutely loaded and should run wild against a very beatable Tulsa defense here. Without Brooks in the backfield I just don't see how the Golden Hurricane keep within arm's reach for four quarters on Saturday. Take Central Florida (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | LSU -21 v. Vanderbilt | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 54 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on LSU minus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the big number with LSU in a strong bounce-back spot on the road against Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Tigers fell short in a stunning 44-34 loss to Mississippi State last Saturday. They draw a far more favorable matchup here against the Commodores. Vandy held its own in a narrow 17-12 setback on the road against a good Texas A&M squad so there's reason to believe it will be full of confidence heading into this one. However, I'm not convinced the Commodores can stay competitive with another poor offensive showing in this one. Note that A&M was driving to potentially go up 21-5 in the third quarter of last week's game before fumbling the football and giving Vandy good field position in what led to the Commodores only touchdown of the game. I'm not sure that contest was quite as close as the final score indicated. LSU shook off the cobwebs last Saturday and I'm confident we'll see a far better performance on both sides of the football this week. Take LSU (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Virginia Tech -11.5 v. Duke | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday. I had Duke pegged as one of the ACC's worst teams at the onset of the season and we've already successfully faded the Blue Devils once, cashing with Boston College in a blowout two weeks ago. Here, I'll go back to the well and fade Duke again as it hosts Virginia Tech. The Hokies made their long-awaited season debut last Saturday, rolling to a 45-24 win over N.C. State. I like the fact that Virginia Tech has room for improvement here, however, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Duke shouldn't pose much of a threat offensively, noting that it has scored a grand total of just 39 points through three games - all losses - this season. While they did put up a season-high 20 points in last week's loss at Virginia, there were extended scoring droughts once again as they managed a touchdown on a defensive breakdown with one minute remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until over midway through the third quarter - their last score of the game. Take Virginia Tech (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Memphis -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
CFB AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over SMU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Since Memphis last played back on September 5th, SMU has played a pair of games, winning in blowout fashion against North Texas and Stephen F. Austin (scoring a whopping 115 points in the process). Most bettors have short memories so it's easy to understand why the idle Tigers are laying only a couple of points in this matchup. I certainly consider Memphis to be the superior team. Note that the Tigers season-opening win came over an Arkansas State squad that went on to defeat Kansas State on the road the very next week. That win looks a lot better now than it did in early September. I'm confident the Tigers will be able to shake off the rust and I believe they'll benefit from facing a familiar opponent in SMU here. Note that Memphis recorded a wild 54-48 win over SMU in the most recent meeting between the schools last November. I'm concerned about the SMU defense in this one after it allowed 59 points in its two previous games against FBS opponents this season. An experienced Memphis offense is capable of scoring at will in this game and I expect the Tigers defense to be flying all over the field after nearly a month off. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
10-03-20 | Baylor -2.5 v. West Virginia | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday. Bettors seem to be a little low on Baylor in the early going this season. Last week they were laying a reasonable 17 points against a still-pitiful Kansas squad and went on to win the game by 34 points (we won with Baylor in that contest). Here, the Bears draw another favorable matchup against a rebuilding West Virginia squad. The Mountaineers dropped a 27-13 decision against Oklahoma State last Saturday. The fact that the Cowboys are still sleepwalking through their early season schedule played a factor in that game as far as I'm concerned. I'm not convinced West Virginia has the offense to keep pace with Baylor in this one. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets +1 | 37-28 | Loss | -113 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll plug my nose and back the Jets in this Thursday night stinker. The Broncos carried some optimism into training camp back in August but let's face it, injuries have completely derailed their season. While this is a winnable game, I'm not convinced Denver has the personnel to do it. Note that Broncos quarterbacks have gotten absolutely crushed through three games - sacked a combined 13 times. Now they turn to inexperienced Brett Rypien, who doesn't figure to fare much better behind a leaky offensive line. Meanwhile, the Broncos injury-ravaged defense has done little to slow opposing quarterbacks, allowing a 68% completion percentage and forcing just one interception compared to seven touchdowns. With WR Jamison Crowder expected back on the field, I do look for Jets QB Sam Darnold to make a last stand, so to speak, and perhaps save his head coach Adam Gase's job (for one week anyway). Take New York (10*). | |||||||
09-30-20 | Reds +1.5 v. Braves | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 12:08 pm et on Wednesday. The Reds closed out the regular season on a red hot 11-3 run and I look for them to keep it going in the opener of their Wild Card series against the Braves in Atlanta. I'll grab the insurance run with Cincinnati here as the price warrants such a decision. Trevor Bauer will take the ball for the Reds. He has enjoyed a career year, even if we are talking about a relatively small sample size. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings were up and his walks were down compared to his previous best season in 2018 in which he was an All-Star and finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young voting and 22nd in A.L. MVP voting. No other starter gave up fewer hits per nine innings this season. Braves starter Max Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP this season but worked beyond the fifth inning just twice in his final seven starts. It's easy to forget that Fried went 17-6 last season. This year he struck out fewer batters per nine innings compared to last year while walking more. Note that he gave up just 0.3 home runs per nine innings, by far a career low number. However, in his final outing he gave up a pair of home runs in just a single inning. Take Cincinnati +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Credit the Broncos for making things interesting against the Steelers last Sunday. In fact, Denver checks into this one sporting a perfect 2-0 ATS record. I don't expect the Broncos to make it three straight ATS victories here, however, as this is a nightmarish matchup, even at home. The Bucs got on track with a sloppy but generally lopsided win over the Panthers last Sunday. I do expect them to sharpen things up on both sides of the football, but particularly on offense as the season progresses. This is a true smash spot for their offense against a Broncos defense that has simply been decimated by injuries. Offensively, Denver is forced to turn to Jeff Driskel in a starting role after Drew Lock went down last week. Not only that but Driskel won't have elite WR Courtland Sutton to work with as he's injured as well. There's just little reason to have any optimism that the Broncos can sustain drives or consistently put points on the board, particularly against an underrated Bucs defense that has done a nice job of handling the Saints and Panthers through two games. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-27-20 | Jets v. Colts -11 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Colts on Sunday as they welcome the hapless Jets to Indy. Despite facing an injury-decimated 49ers squad, the Jets still went out and embarrassed themselves last Sunday, thankfully without their fans in the stadium. Now they draw a more unfavorable matchup as they travel to face a Colts squad that 'got right' in last week's rout of the Vikings. The Indy defense should absolutely feast on an undermanned Jets offense here. The Colts enter this game ranking third in the NFL in sacks with seven and should take advantage of a Jets o-line that is missing its anchor, C Connor McGovern. With the Jets giving up five yards per rush this season they're unlikely to slow the quickly-ascending rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers isn't much more than a game-manager at this stage of his career, although I will point out that his numbers would look a little better were it not for a key T.Y. Hilton drop that would have resulted in a long touchdown last week. Here, look for the Colts to take care of the football on offense, capitalize on a number of short fields afforded by their defense and win in convincing fashion. Take Indianapolis (10*). | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles -4.5 | 23-23 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bengals in each of the last two weeks but were certainly fortunate to do so last week as Joe Burrow led his team on a late backdoor-clinching touchdown drive in Cleveland. There are obviously going to be some growing pains in Cincy, despite all of Burrow's upside. Here, I look for the Bengals to get blown out by what will be an extremely motivated 0-2 Eagles squad. Philadelphia has drawn a pair of tough matchups to open the campaign considering its injury-ravaged offensive line. Not surprisingly, QB Carson Wentz has taken a beating. The good news here is that the Bengals don't have much of a pass rush, having recorded just two sacks through their first two games. Look for Wentz to enjoy a solid 'get right' performance here while RB Miles Sanders takes care of the rest after shaking off the rust last Sunday. I'll gladly take the discount being offered to back the superior team in this matchup. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the only reason we're dealing with a somewhat reasonable pointspread here is due to the fact that Baylor hasn't played a game yet. The Bears are obviously eager to get going and get a cupcake matchup to open things up with Kansas coming off a lopsided loss to Coastal Carolina in its season opener two weeks ago. Baylor's defense shouldn't have much trouble gameplanning for a Kansas offense that can run the football but do little else. It should only be a matter of time before this one gets away from the Jayhawks. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati -13 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Army at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Bearcats as they host an Army squad that has come roaring out of the gates, but against inferior opposition. Let's keep things in perspective. The Black Knights are a perfect 2-0 and have blown out each of their first two opponents but their schedule has afforded them very winnable matchups against Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe. Things get an awful lot tougher this week as they hit the road for the first time to face an underrated Cincinnati squad that might be the second-best team in the AAC (behind UCF). Army has a national top-25 ranking entering this contest which may lead some bettors to back it with the generous helping of points but I expect this one to get away from the Black Knights. Their offense has been humming but there will be some bumps in the road and this is a tough matchup against an experienced and talented Cincinnati defense. The real key in this contest should be the Bearcats offense which has the tools to dominate a good but not great Army defense. Behind a big performance from QB Desmond Ridder as well as a loaded backfield, look for the Bearcats to roll. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
09-24-20 | UAB -6.5 v. South Alabama | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on UAB minus the points over South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I had South Alabama pegged as one of the nation's worst teams prior to the Jaguars surprising season-opening win at Southern Miss (we won with the 'under' in that game). USA followed up that performance with a hard-fought loss at home against Tulane and then had last week off. I look for the Jaguars to fall short of the mark as they host UAB here. The Blazers looked rather unimpressive offensively in their most recent game - a 31-14 loss at Miami. Keep in mind, that loss doesn't look so bad now as the Canes are off to a strong start, fresh off an impressive road win over Louisville. I expect to see the UAB defense rise up and contain the Jaguars aerial attack in this one while the offense does enough to secure the win and cover. Both teams are without their starting QB's but as I mentioned, this is more about the Blazers stepping up and taking over the game. Take UAB (10*). | |||||||
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the nature of that Game 2 loss may have broken most teams, I don't expect the Nuggets to fold the tent. Denver has shown plenty of resiliency throughout the playoffs and should bounce back here as it has a lot of positives to build on following Game 2. While I also lean to the 'under' in this matchup, I'll stick with the side and back the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Ravens -7 v. Texans | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Ravens last Sunday as they annihilated the overmatched Browns. After Cleveland showed some life on Thursday night, that win looks all the more impressive. Now Baltimore heads to Houston to face a Texans squad that I feel could turn out to be a punching bag this season. It's only a matter of time before Bill O'Brien's time is up in H-Town and this game should accelerate that clock. The Ravens run-oriented attack should absolutely feast on a Texans defense that was torched for 168 yards by the Chiefs backfield last week. Meanwhile, the Houston secondary is in shambles and should have no answers for the Ravens capable wide receiving corps. QB Deshaun Watson has to be wondering what his future holds in Houston following the departure of WR DeAndre Hopkins. While Will Fuller can serve as a Hopkins clone in some ways, he's obviously injury-prone and can't carry the passing game all on his own. The Ravens are positively loaded on the defensive side of the football and already proved they could contain Watson in last year's meeting. There's little reason to expect anything different this time around as it should only be a matter of time before Baltimore stretches out the margin. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 51 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. First off, it's worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 18-1-1 ATS in the Chiefs last 20 regular season games. Here, I certainly expect to see the Chiefs prevail and with that being said, I'm confident they can cover the somewhat lofty number. While the Chargers have shown the ability to contain Patrick Mahomes in previous meetings, I'm not sure they're going to have any answers for the Chiefs ground game led by super rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I'm also not convinced Los Angeles will be able to finish enough drives with 7's on the board against a still-underrated Chiefs defense that's strength lies in its pass rush. Keep in mind, the Chargers will be without their o-line anchor in center Mike Pouncey for this one. That opens the door for the Chiefs front seven to get into the backfield with consistency in this one. The Chargers are in a state of change offensively going from immobile QB Phillip Rivers to the agile Tyrod Taylor. As we saw last Sunday, this is a unit that will likely go through some growing pains in the early going and I don't see this as an ideal matchup for them to move to 2-0 on the campaign. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -8 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers blew an excellent opportunity to earn a much-needed opening week win last Sunday against the Raiders (given their tough early season schedule they could be staring down an awful start). Here, I look for them to get blown out at the hands of a hungry Bucs squad. Tampa Bay fell short in last week's showdown with the Saints, largely due to the inept play of its offense. More on that in a moment. First, let's talk about the Bucs underrated defense, which held the Saints to just 6.4 yards per play last Sunday, picking up right where it left off following a red hot finish to last season. The Panthers offense obviously revolves around RB Christian McCaffrey but there's reason to believe he could be held in check here after Tampa Bay completely shut him down in both meetings last season. The Bucs offense looked out of sync in Tom Brady's debut last Sunday. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot, however, as the Panthers own one of the league's weakest defenses. The Raiders torched the Panthers for 34 points last Sunday. You know your defense has a problem when you're giving up nearly double-digit yards per play against QB Derek Carr. While Bucs WR Chris Godwin could miss this game after entering concussion protocol mid-week, this is very much a receiving corps by committee and I expect Tampa's wealth of pass-catchers to pick up the slack in his possible absence. I don't need to tell you that Tom Brady's motivation level will be sky-high (it always is) after getting somewhat called out by head coach Bruce Arians. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. We successfully faded New York in Monday's blowout loss to the Steelers but this is a fine bounce-back spot. Look for RB Saquon Barkley in particular to feast on what appears to be a bottom-tier Bears run defense. Chicago gave up 150+ total yards against the Lions below average stable of running backs last Sunday. After turning in the worst performance of his career to date, Barkley should be the focal point of the G-Men offense here. Credit Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears for rallying from a big fourth quarter deficit in Detroit last week but that had more to do with the Lions ineptitude than anything else. I look for Trubisky to struggle, even in a favorable matchup against a very average Giants defense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's nothing all that imposing about the Bears offense. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Bills -5.5 v. Dolphins | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Dolphins certainly have bright days ahead, it's going to continue to be a slog here in the early going this season. Miami made a new-look Patriots squad look awfully good last Sunday. I expect more of the same against a superior Bills team this week. Buffalo should absolutely have its way with a very beatable Dolphins defense. QB Josh Allen should absolutely be able to replicate Pats QB Cam Newton's performance against Miami as he possesses similar tools. Note that Miami gave up a whopping 217 rushing yards in last week's loss. It's only a matter of time before the Fins turn to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, with the whispers getting a whole lot louder following vet Ryan Fitzpatrick's three-interception performance last Sunday. Buffalo boasts a truly elite defense and should have little trouble containing a banged-up Dolphins offense here. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1 | 37-19 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. We successfully faded the Eagles in last Sunday's loss in Washington but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they return home to host the Rams this week. Philadelphia is expected to get some key cogs back on the field this week in the form of pass rush specialists Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham and right tackle Lane Johnson. If all three can play, that would be a huge boost to a team that is desperate for a strong bounce-back performance. RB Miles Sanders' absence was certainly felt in last Sunday's loss as well and all indications are he'll be back to full strength and on the field this week. I don't have a lot of faith in Rams QB Jared Goff, even after last week's strong showing against the Cowboys. This is a tougher matchup as Goff has traditionally struggled away from home. Despite their myriad of injuries, the Eagles still managed to hold the Washington Football Team to just north of two yards per rush in last week's loss. If the Rams can't get their ground game going here, I expect Goff to have a long afternoon. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 55 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Miami was fortunate to face a disjointed UAB squad in its season-opener last week, ultimately winning and covering the spread in the process. Here, the Canes will face a much tougher challenge as they hit the road to take on the Louisville Cardinals. The Cards got their season off to a resounding start with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That game wasn't as close as the final score indicated as Louisville jumped ahead 28-7 before halftime and never looked back. While the Miami offense promises to be much better with QB D'Eriq King at the helm this season, it certainly didn't look completely in sync last week. I have Louisville pegged as one of the best teams in the entire nation in this unique 2020 college football campaign and will gladly back it as a short favorite here. Take Louisville (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Appalachian State -4 v. Marshall | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Marshall at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Mountaineers as it's early and they remain undervalued in this unique 2020 college football season. Appalachian State actually has a good shot at reaching a New Year's Day Bowl game this year thanks to so many teams sitting on the sidelines. That's not a knock on the Mountaineers, as they're the real deal. Last week Appalachian State came up with a 35-20 win over Charlotte, completely manhandling the 49ers in the trenches. The Mountaineers running game appeared to be in midseason form which spells trouble for Marshall this week. I also liked what I saw from a new-look Appalachian State defense as it came up big on a number of occasions, including a pair of interceptions. Here, the Mountaineers face a much tougher challenge but I like they fact they'll be going up against a freshman quarterback. Keep in mind, Marshall turned in a near-flawless performance in its season debut two weeks ago. Unfortunately that means there's nowhere to go but down in this one. Look for the Thundering Herd to get a wake-up call. Take Appalachian State (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +17 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia State plus the points over UL-Lafayette at 12 noon et on Saturday. The Ragin' Cajuns of UL-Lafayette are coming off a big upset win over Iowa State last Saturday so it's not surprising that they're laying such a big number in their Sun Belt opener this week. I believe the number will prove too high. Georgia State is no pushover. The Panthers reached a Bowl game with a 7-6 overall record last season, making significant progress relatively early in their FBS career. Georgia State returns plenty of talent on both sides of the football - particularly when it comes to defense, where it will obviously need to be stout against an experienced and explosive Ragin' Cajuns offense. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has a terrific stable of wide receivers to stretch the field against a beatable Lafayette defense. Look for Georgia State to stay within arm's reach all afternoon long. Take Georgia State (10*). | |||||||
09-19-20 | Boston College +6.5 v. Duke | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Duke at 12 noon et on Saturday. The case can be made that Boston College is the better team in this matchup but I think the fact that Duke played in a national tv game last week on the road against Notre Dame, and hung relatively tough, plays into the line. The Eagles return a lot of experience on both sides of the football and will be eager to get on the field and face some actual competition here. I don't believe there's any intimidation factor at play with this edition of the Blue Devils. Look for the Eagles to hang tough for four quarters. Take Boston College (10*). | |||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I can understand why the Browns are being favored by nearly a touchdown in this game - after all, this is a huge motivational spot for them coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Ravens (we won with Baltimore in that game) in the national spotlight against a division opponent they 'should' handle. I simply feel they're being asked to lay too many points in this spot as the Bengals showed me enough in a difficult matchup to support them for a second consecutive week. Give Bengals QB Joe Burrow a lot of credit for hanging in there against a very tough Chargers defense last Sunday. Highlights obviously included his touchdown run and his near game-tying (or winning) drive at the end of the fourth quarter. There was plenty to build off of following that performance and I'm confident we'll see him find more success against the Browns here. I also look for a big bounce-back performance from RB Joe Mixon who was relatively ineffective and even lost a fumble (his first since 2016). The Browns are a mess, and have been since the start of last season. While I do like their ground attack and feel they can have considerable success running the football against the Bengals non-existent run defense, I'm not sure QB Baker Mayfield has the composure to avoid a couple of costly mistakes that ultimately keeps this game within arm's reach for the Bengals. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers clearly got caught looking ahead to a date with the rival Lakers at halftime of Game 6, ultimately blowing a 16-point lead en route to an eventual double-digit loss. L.A. really couldn't have played much worse. It only serves to make bouncing back that much easier on Tuesday as I'm confident the Clips motivation level will be sky-high and I expect their play to match it. Give Denver all the credit in the world, first battling its way through a tough series against the Jazz and now giving the favored Clips all they can handle in another seven-game series. We have, however, seen L.A.'s ability to reach another gear in this series and there's simply too much on the line as a franchise to lay another egg on Tuesday night. All of that has certainly been factored into the line, but I still look for the Clips to cover the number. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
09-15-20 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I don't expect the Islanders to go away quietly in this series. They were badly outplayed for much of Game 4 but should bounce back facing the prospect of elimination on Tuesday night. The Lightning most definitely have an eye on the Stanley Cup Final at this point, and rightfully so. While I do expect them to get there, I don't believe a victory in Game 5 is a foregone conclusion. Barry Trotz will have his Isles ready and I'll grab the insurance goal but wouldn't be shocked by an outright win. Take New York +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-14-20 | Titans -3 v. Broncos | 16-14 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Denver at 10:10 pm et on Monday. This game has blowout potential with the Broncos ill-equipped to handle the Titans underrated offense or claw their way back into contention should they fall behind early. Of course, Denver suffered a major blow with the season-ending ankle injury to Von Miller last week. The Broncos were already going to be undermanned defensively before Miller went down due to a number of defections on that side of the football during the offseason. Expect RB Derrick Henry to have a field day against the Broncos once-vaunted 'D'. Offensively, the Broncos have a new coordinator, not to mention an inexperienced quarterback who will be making just his sixth career NFL start - and he'll be doing so potentially without his top target in WR Courtland Sutton. While I do like the upside of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, Hamler is dealing with an injury and Jeudy didn't exactly receive rave reviews during training camp. Maybe the Broncos will elect to go run-heavy but I suspect they'll only be banging their heads against the wall versus a stout Titans defense. Tennessee should be able to pin back its ears and get after QB Drew Lock all night long. Take Tennessee (10*). | |||||||
09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New York at 7:15 pm et on Monday. This really is a tough opening week matchup for the Giants as they try to turn the page on what has been a tough era of G-Men football. The Steelers are reloaded for another run with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. All indications are that his arm is back at full strength as he looks to get the Pittsburgh offense back on track following a tumultuous 2019 campaign. Roethlisberger should feast on a Giants pass defense that was absolutely horrendous last season and doesn't figure to improve here in 2020. Even if Big Ben doesn't dominate, the Steelers should enjoy plenty of success on the ground against a New York defense that gave up just shy of 150 rush yards per game last season. There were signs of life in the Giants offense with rookie Daniel Jones at the helm last season. Of course, it helps that he has RB Saquon Barkley in the backfield but I question how much running room he'll find against the teeth of the Steelers defense. Meanwhile, the G-Men boast a below average group of wide receivers that won't instill much fear at all in the Steelers secondary. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Chargers v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm more than happy to grab the points with an underrated Bengals team hosting an overrated Chargers squad on Sunday afternoon. I'm not sure the Tyrod Taylor-led Chargers have any business traveling across the country and being favored in this matchup. With issues on their offensive line and an unproven ground attack (Austin Ekeler is a terrific RB but more of a pass-catcher than runner), I believe they'll have trouble chewing up clock and ultimately putting this game to bed. It remains to be seen how effective Bengals QB Joe Burrow can be in his NFL debut against a tough defense but I'm confident he can do just enough (and not make the critical game-changing mistakes) to lead the Bengals to victory. I don't believe the Chargers bring any sort of intimidation factor to the table here, especially after losing one of their best defensive players in SS Derwin James to injury. The Chargers are still absolutely loaded with talent on defense but in today's NFL, that's rarely enough. Take Cincinnati (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think it's a pretty good bet that few recreational players will want any part of the Washington Football Team on Sunday afternoon. After all, it was a truly tumultuous offseason in the nation's capital. With that being said, I believe this game is far closer to a pk'em than the oddsmakers are suggesting. Philadelphia isn't exactly on solid ground entering the new season. QB Carson Wentz was banged up throughout training camp and has major pass protection issues with two key cogs on the offensive line (Andre Dillard and Brandon Brooks) lost to injuries. It sets up a bit of a nightmarish situation against Washington's vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, I'm higher on Washington QB Dwayne Haskins than some. I believe he and last year's breakout star WR Terry McLaurin can do plenty of damage right out of the gate this season, particularly against the Eagles beatable secondary. Philadelphia's defense isn't nearly as fearsome with the likes of Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham out of the mix. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure the Ravens are getting quite enough credit for their regular season performance a year ago, or hype entering the new season (thanks in large part to the love-in for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs). Baltimore has the potential to be even better this year after shoring up its run defense and making some savvy additions on offense during the offseason. The Browns underwent a coaching overhaul following a disappointing 2019 campaign but I'm not sure it's going to result in immediate positive returns. This is quite simply an awful opening week matchup against a loaded Super Bowl contender that carries a big chip on its shoulder following last January's early playoff exit. The Browns are dealing with a number of injuries and absences on the defensive side of the football which should have QB Lamar Jackson licking his chops entering this contest. Take Baltimore (10*). | |||||||
09-12-20 | Tulane -10 v. South Alabama | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane minus the points over South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Alabama pulled off a stunning upset win at Southern Miss last week (we won with the 'under') so don't expect Tulane to get caught off guard in its season debut. The Jaguars were able to orchestrate the upset thanks to a number of big plays in the passing game, taking full advantage of a very weak Southern Miss secondary. Here, the Jags won't be so fortunate. Tulane's defense let it down at times last season but should be stronger here in 2020, with its pass defense serving as a strength. There are a number of changes on offense but I do think the Green Wave can hit the ground running with a week of game film to work with when it comes to the South Alabama defense. I had the Jaguars pegged as one of the weakest teams in FBS entering this unique 2020 season and I won't stray from that thinking, even after last week's strong performance. Tulane has become a perennial Bowl team while South Alabama is still trying to find its way as an FBS program. While I'd like to be dealing with a lower number, I still see value with the Green Wave here. Take Tulane (10*). | |||||||
09-12-20 | UL-Monroe +21.5 v. Army | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Louisiana-Monroe plus the points over Army at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with Louisiana-Monroe at it heads to West Point to take on Army on Saturday afternoon. The Black Knights have the benefit of having already worked out the early season kinks in a stunning 42-0 blowout win over Middle Tennessee last week. Keep in mind, the Black Knights were favored by just north of a field goal in that game. They overachieved in that contest as the Blue Raiders had absolutely no answer to Army's triple-option offense. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Don't count on the Black Knights running roughshod against a Warhawks defense that has plenty of talent and experience in the second level. On the flip side, the Army defense was never really tested in last week's game as it jumped ahead early and never looked back. The Black Knights were able to force three turnovers in that victory but I look for Louisiana-Monroe to do a better job of taking care of the football here. Look for the Warhawks to play smart with an inexperienced quarterback but serviceable ground attack against an Army defense that shouldn't generate much pressure in the backfield. Army should get the win here, but I simply feel it is being asked to lay too many points. Take Louisiana-Monroe (10*). | |||||||
09-10-20 | Golden Knights v. Stars +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas +1.5 goals over Vegas at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night and while I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday, I'm not ready to pay the tariff with the 'under' again. Instead I'll grab the insurance goal with what is sure to be an extremely hungry Stars squad coming off Tuesday night's egg. Dallas has been answering its doubters all playoffs long and I expect it to do so again in this spot. We did see some push back from the Stars in the third period of Game 2 and I'm expecting some carry-over from that here. While Vegas ultimately dominated two nights ago, I still believe we're in for a long series. Take Dallas +1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
09-04-20 | Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Rockies plus the insurance run on Friday night in Los Angeles. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for Colorado. He has quietly gotten off to a fine start this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his walks are way down, all the way to 1.5 per nine innings compared to 4.1 a year ago. His home runs and hits allowed have also dropped. Dodgers starter Dustin May has posted a solid ERA and WHIP but a deeper look shows that he has regressed slightly. His strikeouts per nine innings are down from 8.3 a year ago to 5.9 this season. His walks have jumped from 1.3 to 2.3. He's also allowing 1.0 home runs per nine innings compared to 0.5 last season. Entering last night's action the Rockies had crept into T10th in runs per game and T7th in team batting average. I look for them to hang around in this one. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-03-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This is an awfully tough matchup for the D'Backs as they run into a red hot Clayton Kershaw while sending a struggling Luke Weaver to the mound. Weaver made his big league debut in 2016 but has pitched just one full season since, that coming in 2018 when he went 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up this season but so are his walks, hits and home runs allowed. The fact is, Weaver has struggled here in 2020 and there's little reason to expect him to turn things around against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is quietly off to a terrific start this season with a 1.80 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season while his walks are down. Keep in mind he was an All-Star once again last year and finished eighth in N.L. Cy Young voting so the fact that he has improved on his numbers says something. I'll lay the extra run to get a more reasonably price with the Dodgers here. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really think this is a blowout in the making as the weary Nuggets take on the Clippers just one day removed from outlasting the Jazz in what was an opening round war of attrition. Los Angeles is well-rested, and likely to keep rolling after rounding into form in the latter stages of the first round. The Clips didn't exactly come roaring out of the gates here in the "bubble" but they didn't have to. Here, I look for them to get off to a blazing start to the second round as they do a far better job of containing Jokic and Murray than the Jazz did in the Nuggets last series. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | 112-94 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I look for the Raptors to get an early jump on the Celtics in this series as they return from an extended layoff on Sunday afternoon. Boston looked a little disjointed at times early in its series against the 76ers but got stronger as it went on, ultimately prevailing against an undermanned Philadelphia squad. This should be a different story as it faces the challenge of a full-strength Raptors squad that is playing some of its best basketball here in the "bubble". All indications are that Kyle Lowry's ankle should be good to go for Game 1, with a few extra days off helping him get ready for the opener. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
08-28-20 | Pirates +1.5 v. Brewers | 1-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Pirates with an insurance run on Friday night in Milwaukee. Pirates starter Derek Holland is obviously on the down side of his career but it is worth noting that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down compared to last year. He is giving up a considerably higher home run rate but that should diminish with a larger sample size. Brewers starter Corbin Burnes is averaging over 12 strikeouts per nine innings but his walks have crept up to 5.5 per nine innings compared to 3.7 a year ago. Note that the Brewers rank a miserable 29th in the majors in runs per game and an identical 29th in team batting average. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers on Tuesday night as they bounce-back from a very disappointing overtime loss on Sunday afternoon. Luka Doncic simply took over that game on Sunday, turning in a performance for the ages with his running mate Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Now I look for a big response from Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers as they look to take back control of the series and silence some of their doubters in the process. A big early lead may have been the worst thing that could have happened to the Clippers on Sunday as they let down their guard against the undermanned Mavs and ultimately paid the price with an 'L'. Look for a sharper, more focused effort from the Clips on Tuesday. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
08-20-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-5 | Loss | -141 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. It's not easy to go against the A's these days but in this spot, I'm willing to take a flyer on the D'Backs with an insurance run. Alex Young will get the nod for Arizona. He has made eight appearances this season but only one start after 15 of his 17 appearances last year were starts. Note that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down considerably. Last season, Young recorded a solid 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, allowing north of 12 hits per nine innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up compared to his injury-shortened 2019 season. While the D'Backs aren't known as a prolific offensive club they did enter last night's action ranked tied for ninth in runs per game and tied for seventh in batting average (MLB ranks). Take Arizona +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-20-20 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 1 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 1 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 2 on Thursday afternoon. This is a mismatch as far as I'm concerned, even if it didn't look that way in the early stages of the series-opener. Once the Heat settled in they were able to essentially do whatever they wanted and ultimately stretch out the margin against the Pacers in Game 1. There's little reason to expect anything different on Thursday. The 'zig-zag theory' produced a 3-1 ATS record in yesterday's playoff contests, but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 4 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat as they open their first round playoff series with the Pacers on Tuesday afternoon. This will actually be the third meeting in just over a week between these two teams with each side winning one of those matchups. Both games were ultimately blowouts but we can put a lot more stock in Miami's 114-92 win back on August 10th as the second matchup saw most key cogs sit. The Pacers have enjoyed a nice run here in the "bubble" but I'm much higher on the Heat and had this line pegged 1.5 points higher than we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Clippers in the opener of their series with the Mavericks on Monday night. After getting off to a rocky start here at Disney dropping two of their first three contests, the Clippers turned it around winning four of their last five. That included a 15-point rout of the Mavericks on August 6th. Dallas has been marred by inconsistent play, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, here in the "bubble" and I simply don't see it getting off to a roaring start to the playoffs against a Clippers squad that will be looking to make a statement right out of the gates. All things considered, I believe we're being asked to lay a very reasonable number with the vastly superior team on Monday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 6:30 pm et on Monday. The Celtics were red hot near the tail-end of regular season play in the "bubble", reeling off four straight wins before falling with most of their key cogs resting in their finale against the Wizards. Here, they draw a tough opening round matchup against a 76ers squad they struggled against during the regular season, dropping three of four meetings. Of course, Philadelphia is a different team without Ben Simmons. That being said, the Sixers have held up well in "bubble" action to this point, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. They've learned to play without their star guard and I believe they enter the playoffs with a big chip on their shoulder against the favored Celtics. Look for a tightly-contested affair in Game 1 on Monday. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | Nets +10 v. Raptors | 110-134 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Nets on Monday as they aim to take their first step in dethroning the defending NBA champion Raptors. While that will be a tall task indeed, here we're only looking for Brooklyn to give Toronto a run. The Raptors are generally slow starters in playoff series' having gone an absolutely dreadful 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 series openers. The Nets have been one of the most undervalued commodities in the "bubble". While they have a ton of absences, there's no question they've come together and played their best basketball of the season here at Disney. The Raps win Game 1 but it should be close. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
08-15-20 | A's v. Giants +1.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:07 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: Manaea starting for Montas for Oakland. The play remains on the Giants +1.5 at a slightly less favorable price. I'll take a shot with the Giants plus the insurance run as they try to bounce back from last night's highly disappointing extra innings loss to the A's. Oakland staged a five-run ninth inning rally in that contest, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat as they say. Here, they'll hand the ball to Frankie Montas and I feel he's become a little overvalued. Note that Montas' walks per nine innings are up this season while his strikeouts are down slightly. Meanwhile, he's yet to allow a single home run, which as we obviously know is certainly not sustainable even if he has had a penchant for keeping the ball in the yard over the course of his young career. Veteran Kevin Gausman has actually pitched reasonably well for the Giants. In fact, he's put together a solid run since joining the Reds late last season, bumping up his strikeouts per nine innings while doing a good job of keeping his walks down (he's issuing just 0.9 walks per nine innings this season). Keep in mind, the A's check in ranked T24 in hits per game and 27th in batting average. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-11-20 | Marlins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Toronto at 6:37 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a flyer with the Marlins here as the Blue Jays face some considerable distraction as they play their first "home" game here at renovated Sahlen Field in Buffalo. Toronto continues to struggle out of the gates this season, never really recovering from an early layoff as a result of a postponed series with the Phillies. The Jays will have ace Hyun-Jin Ryu on the hill for this one but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued, especially with Ryu coming off a strong bounce-back performance against the Braves last week. Elieser Hernandez looked good in his season debut for the Marlins and I believe he'll be good enough to keep the Marlins in this game as well. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
08-06-20 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Phoenix at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the red hot Suns as they come off a thrilling buzzer-beating win over the Clippers two days ago. Phoenix has gone a perfect 3-0 since the NBA restart to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Here it faces a less talked about but equally hot opponent in the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have also gone a perfect 3-0 since the restart but the difference is Indiana has been a quality team all season long. The Suns will certainly draw the Pacers attention here after that huge upset victory over the NBA title contending Clippers. I believe we're being asked to lay a relatively short number with the much better all-around team. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic +6.5 | 109-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors have impressed through two games since the restart, notching wins over the Lakers and Heat. I believe there's a chance we see them overlook the Magic on Wednesday, however, as they have a date with the Celtics looming on Friday. Orlando has gone 2-1 here in the 'bubble' but is coming off a double-digit loss against the Pacers last time out. While Toronto will be looking to sweep the 'season series' with the Magic I expect it to be in tough. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
08-05-20 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Utah at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have struggled since the restart, going 0-3 but they've been competitive in all three games. They're coming off their worst effort though against the Pelicans last time out so I look for them to come out strong in this winnable game against the Jazz on Wednesday. Utah will certainly be motivated coming off back-to-back losses but I simply feel they're being asked to lay too many points in this spot. Note that this will be the first of a three game in four days stretch for the Jazz. Look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
07-25-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have been getting it from all angles ever since the news of their cheating scandal broke so you have to think they're happy to just get back to playing baseball. They certainly have a point to prove here in the early going of this shortened MLB campaign and got off to a solid start with a victory over Seattle last night. I expect them to rack up another lopsided win on Saturday afternoon. I'm actually pretty high on the Mariners in the long-term picture but given their very difficult schedule and the amount of youth on their roster, 2020 is likely to be a struggle. They'll send Taijuan Walker to the hill on Saturday as he makes his return to the M's after a stint in the National League with the D'Backs. He should find the going a little tougher back in the Junior Circuit and draws an especially tough matchup here against a loaded Astros lineup. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. is back on the mound after missing all of last season due to injury. He looked outstanding during Summer Camp and by all accounts is good to go as he makes his long-awaited season debut here in 2020. Going back to Spring Training, he allowed two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out six and most encouragingly walking only one. If McCullers can keep his command in check he has the potential to be one of the most dominant starters in the American League as far as I'm concerned. Look for him to help guide the Astros to a convincing win here as we'll lay the extra run to get a better price with the home side. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-21-20 | Manchester City -1.5 v. Watford | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Manchester City -1.5 goals over Watford at 1 pm et on Tuesday. This is an incredible bounce-back spot for City coming off a highly disappointing 2-0 loss to Arsenal in FA Cup play on Saturday. Watford should offer little resistance, with its lone two victories since the restart coming against Norwich City and Newcastle earlier this month. I'll lay the extra goal here as City looks to 'get right' in a 'name your score' type of affair. Take Manchester City -1.5 goals (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |