Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | Arsenal v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of low-scoring contests in Champions League action yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold, at least in this match on Wednesday. Note that Arsenal has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, FC Porto has scored first in seven of its last nine matches (Arsenal has found the back of the net first in five straight contests). I'm confident that both sides will come into this round knowing that they'll need to push rather than sit back and defend. We're talking about two of the youngest teams remaining in the Champions League this year. Porto in particular can be exposed at the back end, particularly on the outside. It's a similar story for Arsenal even if the Gunners are a little stronger between the sticks with goalkeeper David Raya in fine form. I consider both sides to be underrated up front and I'm confident we'll see at least three total goals on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-19-24 | Stars v. Bruins UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring overtime losses on home ice on Saturday. I look for a different story to unfold as the Stars and Bruins match up in a matinee affair in Boston on Monday. Dallas actually held the high-powered Oilers offense off the scoreboard for the entire first and third periods on Saturday but gave up three goals in the second frame and another in overtime in a 4-3 defeat. Note that the Stars check in allowing just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. The Bruins have a fairly well-established ceiling offensively in this particular series having scored three goals or less in the last 12 meetings, reaching four goals just once over that stretch. Boston desperately needs to button things up defensively after allowing five goals in an overtime loss against the Kings on Saturday - its fourth consecutive loss on home ice. Still, the Bruins have allowed only 2.6 goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 14-10 in the Stars last 24 games following a one-goal loss at home. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 12-6 in the Bruins last 18 contests in the identical situation. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-18-24 | Western v. Eastern OVER 362 | 186-211 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Eastern Conference and Western Conference at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen some lower scoring results in the NBA All-Star Game in recent years but that's really only been due to the Elam Ending rules that were enforced, implementing a target score that would end the game. It's back to the regular rules this year, along with the conference format meaning we'll see four 12-minute quarters. Keep in mind, the last two times the East and West squared off we saw 369 and 374 points in 2016 and 2017, respectively. I don't expect to see any defense played in Sunday's showcase as the offensive talent is as good as it's ever been in today's NBA, while defense has become optional with the exception of a few select teams. Simply put, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-18-24 | Rangers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the Rangers and Islanders at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the last two meetings between these two teams but this is the first matchup this season. Note that we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this rivalry since 2016-17. The 'under' is 19-12 in the Rangers last 31 games following a home win by three goals or more, as is the case here. The Blueshirts have also seen the 'under' go 19-11 in their last 30 contests following consecutive wins by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 12-6 in the Islanders last 18 games played on three or more days' rest and 20-17 in their last 37 contests after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday. Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-17-24 | BYU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 151.5 | 83-93 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. BYU left it all on the floor in a 90-88 home win over UCF on Tuesday while Oklahoma State has been idle since last Saturday's narrow 66-62 loss on the road against in-state rival Oklahoma. The Cougars have now been held to just 23, 27 and 21 made field goals over their last three games. I don't think we'll see the Cowboys get walked all over here, noting they do rank a respectable 86th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, not to mention 194th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't likely to get dragged into a track meet either. They've connected on 22 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine contests. Last Saturday's game marked the first time in 13 contests they hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 11-7 in BYU's last 18 games following a home win in which it scored 85 or more points and 26-20 in its last 46 contests after suffering three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Oklahoma State's last 41 games as an underdog and 35-28 in its last 63 games after winning three straight contests ATS. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-17-24 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Stetson OVER 142.5 | 60-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida-Gulf Coast and Stetson at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are hovering around the 300-mark in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) with Florida-Gulf Coast just north of that level and Stetson considerably south of it. While neither team has played at all that quick of a pace - certainly nothing compared to what we saw from them in recent years - we have seen signs of them picking it up lately. FGCU has hoisted up 57 or more field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games, reaching at least 60 four times over that stretch. Stetson doesn't figure to do much to slow the Eagles as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Stetson has 60 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, connecting on 29 or more of those shots in four of its last five contests. FGCU has continued to slow its opponents' tempo but has still allowed 25 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 15-10 in the Eagles last 25 games as a road underdog including a 6-4 mark this season. The 'over 'is also 17-13 in their last 30 games following a double-digit win over a conference foe. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-5 in the Hatters last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 1-0 record in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 10-2 in their last 12 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-16-24 | Yale v. Pennsylvania OVER 137.5 | Top | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Yale's campus on February 3rd with the Bulldogs prevailing by a 74-58 score in a game that stayed 'under' the total. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair in Friday's rematch in Pennsylvania. Note that Penn connected on just 20 field goals in that previous matchup. The Quakers have proven to be a much better offensive team at home this season where they average 29 made field goals per contest. Yale has been fairly solid defensively but does check in having allowed 23 or more made field goals in six of its last eight games to at least leave the door cracked for the Penn offense, which is objectively better than its defense this season (the Quakers rank 154th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). Note that Penn has connected on more than 20 field goals in 19 of 22 games this season so I'm willing to chalk up that ugly performance against Yale as an outlier. Defensively, the Quakers have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals with half of those foes making good on at least 29. Yale enters this game on a serious tear offensively having connected on 33, 31, 34, 31, 27, 25, 28 and 28 field goals over its last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last seven games following three straight home wins and 12-7 in their last 19 contests played on five or six days' rest, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-29 in Penn's last 69 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored less than 60 points and 22-19 in its last 41 contests off an ATS win but SU loss. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Grizzlies were involved in a high-scoring victory over the Rockets last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Memphis actually got off just 79 field goal attempts (making good on 39 of them) in that win. In fact, the Grizzlies have been held to 81 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last five games. Incredibly, Memphis has connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 27 straight and 34 of its last 35 contests representing an iron ceiling when it comes to its scoring potential. On the flip side, the Grizzlies have limited three of their last four opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals and last night marked the first time in five games they allowed an opponent to get off more than 86 field goal attempts (that was largely game-script dependent as Houston fell behind by 15 points after the first quarter). Milwaukee continues to struggle under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six straight games and continue to play without an excellent complimentary piece in Khris Middleton. The good news is, Milwaukee continues to play tough defense having held six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and eight of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-7 in the Bucks last 17 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Grizzlies last 12 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points and 8-6 in their last 14 contests following an upset victory at home. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-15-24 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Avalanche are coming off a 6-3 victory in Washington two nights ago - the second time they scored six goals against the Caps over the last three weeks. Still, Colorado has produced just 12 goals in six games going back to the All-Star break. It will be facing a Lightning team that has been fairly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per contest. Tampa Bay persevered and notched a 3-2 shootout win in Boston on Tuesday. Like the Avs, the Bolts have struggled for the most part offensively since the All-Star break, scoring only nine goals in regulation time over their last four contests. Despite all the offensive firepower on these two teams, the 'under' has actually gone 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series. Note that the 'under' is 14-6 in the Avs last 20 games after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 161-133 with Colorado coming off a road win in which it scored four goals or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-9 in the Lightning's last 24 games following an overtime win and 12-9 in their last 21 contests after a road win over a division opponent. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-14-24 | Kings v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a wild, high-scoring 130-125 loss in Phoenix last night extending their o/u record to 6-0-1 over their last seven games. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as these two teams play their final game prior to the All-Star break. Sacramento has actually held five straight and eight of its last nine opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Nuggets aren't exactly lighting it up offensively right now as they've connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 10 of their last 12 games including 42 or fewer in four of their last six contests. On the flip side, Denver continues to hold up well defensively, limiting 10 straight and 16 of their last 18 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, Denver has held an incredible 15 of its last 18 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 19-16 in the Kings last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 19-11 in their last 30 contests following six consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-20 in Denver's last 46 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-13 in its last 28 contests following an upset loss on the road, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-14-24 | Panthers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Panthers may be known for their offensive prowess but they've flipped the script this season and check into Wednesday's matchup in Pittsburgh as one of the best 'under' bets in hockey. Florida is coming off a 4-0 victory over Colorado on Saturday and you would have to go back six games to find the last time it posted an 'over' result. In fact, the 'under' is 18-5-2 in the Panthers last 25 contests. Similarly, Pittsburgh enters riding a five-game 'under' streak and has posted a 2-10 o/u mark over its last 12 games. These two teams just met here in Pittsburgh on January 26th and the result was a 3-2 Panthers victory. Note that Florida has allowed just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while Pittsburgh has given up an identical 2.3 goals per contest at home. The 'under' is 12-8 in the Panthers last 20 games played on three days' rest and 17-12 in their last 29 games following a win by four goals or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-16 in the Penguins last 36 games played with double-revenge, as is the case here, and 9-2 in their last 11 contests following consecutive road losses. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-14-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Notre Dame is coming off a stunning 74-66 upset win over Virginia Tech on Saturday marking the first time it scored more than 61 points since a 75-68 victory at Georgia Tech on January 9th. I'm not convinced the Irish will enjoy similar offensive success here, noting they still rank 336th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and just inside the top-300 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday's contest Notre Dame had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in 10 straight games. Georgia Tech is by no means an elite defensive team but despite allowing six of its last 10 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts it yielded 30 or more made field goals just once over that stretch. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight games. The Irish can play some defensive having limited eight straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season did reach 143 total points but both teams played at a faster pace than expected and shot better than their season average from beyond the arc in that contest. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 in Georgia Tech's last 17 games when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored 75 points or more and 8-1 in its last nine contests following consecutive double-digit losses. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-21 in Notre Dame's last 46 home games and 9-3 in its last 12 contests following an upset victory. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-13-24 | Red Wings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' is 12-1 in the Oilers last 13 games and that's affording us a total of 6.5 in a game where I believe it should be set at 7.0 on Tuesday. Note that the last two meetings between these teams in Edmonton have produced a total of 21 goals. Detroit checks in off a 4-3 overtime victory over Vancouver on Saturday. The 'over' is 52-29 in the Red Wings last 83 games against Western Conference opponents. The Wings have also seen the 'over' go 13-4 in their last 17 contests following a one-goal victory at home. The Oilers were shut out on Saturday in Los Angeles, dropping a 4-0 decision. The 'over' is 5-2 in their last seven games after getting shut out and 21-15 in their last 36 contests following a game that totalled four goals or less. Note that the 'over' is also 8-3 in Edmonton's last 11 games following a road loss against a division opponent. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State UNDER 140 | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I think the fact that these two teams combined to score 150 points in their first meeting this season (on January 30th) is weighing heavily on this total. This is a matchup of two terrific defensive teams, not to mention two relatively slow-paced offenses. You wouldn't know it from the first matchup but I look for a more tightly-contested affair in Tuesday's rematch. Colorado State has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games and is coming off a 66-47 rout of San Jose State on Friday. The Rams are locked-in defensively right now having held each of their last three opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. While they do rank an impressive 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, they also sit 281st in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Colorado State has hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games entering Tuesday's contest. San Diego State is coming off an overtime loss at Nevada on Friday. The Aztecs rank 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They check in having held an incredible 17 of their last 19 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited 16 of their last 18 foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. While San Diego State does rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, it is just 231st in adjusted tempo. The Aztecs have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games. Even in their previous matchup with the Rams they got off an uncharacteristic 60 field goal attempts but still topped out at 27 made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 7-2 in Colorado State's last nine games following three straight wins over conference opponents and 19-13 in its last 32 contests after a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-24 in San Diego State's last 56 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 75 points or more and 21-18 in its last 39 games as a home favorite. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-12-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Devils OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Monday. These two teams were both involved in relatively low-scoring affairs on Saturday as Seattle dropped a 3-2 decision in Philadelphia and New Jersey fell by a 1-0 score (in overtime) in Carolina. I look for a different story to unfold on Monday as they match up in Newark. The Kraken have scored a grand total of just two goals over their last two games and appeared rather lifeless in Saturday's loss against the Flyers, firing only 19 shots on goal. I'm willing to blame rust on that poor performance as they hadn't played a game since January 30th. Prior to its last two games, Seattle had scored 13 goals over a three-game stretch so we know what it is capable of. The Kraken draw a favorable matchup here as the Devils have had a tough time keeping the puck out of their own net at home this season, allowing 3.9 goals per game. New Jersey was shut out on Saturday but had potted eight goals in its previous two games following the All-Star break. Keep in mind, the Devils recently welcomed back superstar Jack Hughes from injury. Note that the 'over' is 28-22 with the Kraken seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 15-11 when they come off a road loss by one goal. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-12 in the Devils last 33 contests after holding their previous opponent to one goal or less and 12-9 in their last 21 games following a contest that totalled three goals or less. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-12-24 | Wake Forest v. Duke OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Duke at 7 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw an absolute stinker of an ACC matchup as Virginia throttled Miami in an extremely low-scoring game. I expect a much different story to unfold this week as Wake Forest travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium to challenge Duke. The Demon Deacons have quietly reeled off three straight wins. They're on a tear offensively right now having connected on 28, 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last four games. Duke has caught a couple of favorable matchups at home against Notre Dame and Boston College over the last week but will have to contend with an up-tempo Wake Forest squad here. Note that the Blue Devils have by no means played lockdown defense, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Wake Forest sits just outside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Defensively, the Demon Deacons can be exposed. They've shown no consistent ability to slow the opposition, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts and six in a row to get off at least 57. I mentioned the Deacs are on an offensive tear but so are the Blue Devils. They've knocked down 30 or more field goals in three of their last four games and 26 or more in nine of their last 12 contests. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in Wake Forest's last 21 games as a road underdog and 23-10 in its last 33 contests following three straight wins over conference opponents. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 in Duke's last 22 games following consecutive 'under' results and 21-17 in its last 38 contests following a game in which it scored 80 or more points, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-11-24 | Bowling Green v. UL - Lafayette OVER 151 | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Louisiana-Lafayette at 3 pm et on Sunday. It's a rare non-conference matchup in February as Bowling Green travels to face Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons have quietly reeled off 11 straight 'over' results. While getting out of the MAC for a game may serve as a 'catalyst for change' on most occasions, I'm not convinced that's the case here. Louisiana is coming off consecutive 'under' results but hasn't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total all season. The Ragin' Cajuns don't mind getting out and running and they'll certainly get their opportunity to do so here as the Falcons have allowed four of their last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Worse still, Bowling Green has allowed 11 of its last 14 foes to connect on at least 28 field goals. Louisiana has gotten bogged down at times against slow-paced Sun Belt Conference teams but still checks in having made good on 26 or more field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Of course we'll need Bowling Green to hold up its end of the bargain offensively to help this total along as well. The Falcons have hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 games. They enter on a tear having knocked down at least 29 field goals in three of their last four contests. Note that the 'over' is 24-11 in Bowling Green's last 35 games following a win. The 'over' is also 21-13 ATS in Louisiana's last 34 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-11-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are coming off a wild, high-scoring game against the Wizards on Friday. Interestingly, they haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since January 8th and 10th. While Boston continues to give up too many scoring opportunities (that's been somewhat game-script dependent lately), it has held four straight and 12 of its last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's not all that stingy of a number by any means but considering the Celtics have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 10 straight games, it's worth noting. It's never easy to bait the Heat into a track meet. Miami has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 15 games and averages only 86 per game at home this season. The Heat are once again locked-in defensively, limiting five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals entering Sunday's contest. Note that the 'under' is 31-22 in Boston's last 53 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 26-13 in its last 39 contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in Miami's last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 11-9 in its last 20 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-10-24 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams just faced each other earlier this week with the Penguins skating to a 3-0 victory on home ice. Winnipeg has been held to a grand total of four goals during its current five-game losing streak so it is obviously desperate for a breakout performance here. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has scored three goals or less in a season-high nine straight games following last night's 3-2 defeat in Minnesota. The Pens are still averaging 3.2 goals per contest on the road this season while the Jets average 3.3 goals per game on home ice. Note that the 'over' is 14-7 in Pittsburgh's last 21 road games with the total set at 5.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is also 16-9 in Pittsburgh's last 25 games following a one-goal loss on the road. Winnipeg in is uncharted territory in a sense as it comes off eight straight 'under' results (excluding pushes). That situation has come up only six times since the Jets returned to the league in 2011 with the 'over' going 4-2. The 'over' is also 11-8 in their last 19 games when seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-10-24 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State enters this game off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as the Cowboys travel to Stillwater for a showdown with the rival Sooners on Saturday. The Cowboys have been positively dreadful offensively for the most part over the last month or so, connecting on 22 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games. They'll run into the 16th ranked defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) according to KenPom on Saturday. The Sooners have limited three straight and five of their last seven foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. While Oklahoma's defense has been stout, it hasn't been quite as consistent offensively, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its last eight contests. While the Oklahoma State defense is not elite by any means, I do think it is better than it has shown lately, most recently getting lit up by Houston in a 'wrong place at the wrong time situation' after the Cougars dropped a tough one on the road against Kansas three days earlier. The Cowboys have held 15 of 23 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Oklahoma State's last seven games as a double-digit road underdog and 18-16 in its last 34 games following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 22 games as a double-digit home favorite and 14-12 in its last 26 contests following a double-digit home victory, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-09-24 | Penguins v. Wild OVER 6 | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games last time out with the Penguins skating to a 3-0 victory over the Jets and the Wild prevailing 2-1 over the Blackhawks. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday. Pittsburgh has now been held to three goals or less in a season-high eight straight games. I think there's a good chance it snaps that streak here. Note that the Pens have been a higher-scoring team on the road than at home this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game. They'll be facing a Wild squad that allows 3.3 goals per contest on home ice. Minnesota will give the start to former Pen Marc-Andre Fleury after he didn't get the nod in the previous matchup between these two teams in Pittsburgh. Fleury owns a less than impressive .889 save percentage in 12 appearances at home this season. The Pens lit him up for four goals on 31 shots in their lone matchup with him last season. The question becomes whether Minnesota can contribute enough offensively to help this total along. I believe it can. The Wild average 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. They've been held to two goals or less in three straight games. That's happened only once previously this season (a four-game streak). Note that the 'over' is 13-10 in Pittsburgh's last 23 games following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Pens last 27 games following a contest that totalled three goals or less. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-18 in Minnesota's last 50 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 19-14 in its last 33 games following a win over a division opponent. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-08-24 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | 129-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Neither of these teams are playing their best basketball right now. The Timberwolves check in 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games while the Bucks have lost four of their last five contests both SU and ATS. Minnesota did give up 129 points in an overtime defeat in Chicago two nights ago but remains locked-in defensively having held five straight and nine of its last 11 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. It might be catching Milwaukee at the right time as Khris Middleton is among those sidelined while Damian Lillard is questionable to play on Thursday after missing Tuesday's contest in Phoenix. Offensively, it's been a bit of a slog for the T'Wolves as they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll run into a Bucks squad that should have one of their key stoppers back on the floor in Brook Lopez after he missed a few games due to personal reasons. While Milwaukee certainly hasn't been dominant defensively during its recent slide, it has still limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 22-15 in the T'Wolves last 37 games following an upset loss including 7-2 this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-6 in the Bucks last 16 home games with the line set between +3 and -3. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-07-24 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 225.5 | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total while the Hornets are coming off a high-scoring affair against the Lakers as well. I expect more of the same as these two struggling teams match up on Wednesday. The Raptors look like a tired team right now, certainly disinterested in playing much defense having allowed 47 or more made field goals in regulation time in six of their last nine contests and 44 or more in eight of those games. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest in) slowing their opponents' pace, allowing seven of their last eight foes to hoist up at least 93 field goal attempts. The Hornets have been pushing the pace a little more lately, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. Similar to Toronto, Charlotte has been getting lashed defensively, allowing seven straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-15 in the Raptors last 32 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last six contests after giving up 135 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 59-50 in the Hornets last 109 games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points. The 'under' cashed in the most recent matchup between these two teams on December 18th but we haven't seen consecutive 'under' results in this series over the last six meetings. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-06-24 | Avalanche v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Avalanche were involved in a low-scoring affair in Manhattan last night but I look for a different story to unfold as they make the short trip to Newark to face the Devils on Tuesday. New Jersey checks in allowing 3.9 goals per game on home ice this season. The Devils are in need of help between the pipes noting they don't have a goaltender on their roster that has recorded a save percentage higher than .895 this season. I do expect New Jersey to hang tough here, however, noting that it comes off consecutive road losses prior to the All-Star break. The Devils certainly haven't forgotten a 6-3 loss they suffered in Colorado in the lone previous meeting between these teams this season. Note that the 'over' is 29-23 in the Devils last 52 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. The Avalanche are likely to give backup goaltender Justus Annunen just his second start of the season after Alexandar Georgiev faced his former team last night. Annunen allowed four goals in a 7-4 victory in Ottawa in his lone previous start this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-136 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-05-24 | Islanders v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The All-Star break probably came at the right time for the Islanders and new head coach Patrick Roy as they had lost three straight games heading in. When we last saw them take the ice they dropped a 3-2 home decision against the Panthers. Note that the 'over' is 12-6 with New York coming off an 'under' result this season. The Isles have been a disappointment defensively, allowing 3.4 goals per game with that number rising to 3.5 on the road. The Maple Leafs are in a similar boat in that department having allowed 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Of course, Toronto also boasts one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 3.7 goals per contest here at home. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 in the Leafs last 16 games after allowing two goals or less in three straight games, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 24-12 in their last 36 contests following three straight victories. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have been on a bit of a tear (relatively speaking) offensively in recent weeks but I look for Monday's matchup to take on more of a defensive flavor. Miami delivered an 82-74 home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday. While the Hurricanes have connected on 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, they haven't knocked down 30 or more field goals since back on January 6th against Wake Forest. They obviously draw a tough challenge here as Virginia ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Cavaliers have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Virginia has made good on more than 27 field goals just once in its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is 12-6 in Miami's last 18 games as a road underdog and 11-7 in its last 18 games following a home win in-conference. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-6 in Virginia's last 17 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 in the Cavaliers last seven games following a win by three points or less in-conference. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-04-24 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 162 | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Arizona at 8 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings between these teams and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. Stanford took the first matchup of the season in stunning fashion, cruising to a 100-82 home win on New Year's Eve. Arizona remains one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They're also just one spot outside the top-10 in adjusted tempo. Stanford has shown no ability to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing 60 or more field goal attempts in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. They did hold Arizona State down in a revenge game two nights ago but now the shoe is on the other foot. Note that Arizona has knocked down 28 or more field goals in 13 of its last 15 games and 18 of 21 contests overall this season. The question is whether Stanford can contribute enough to help this total along. While Arizona is tough defensively, the simple fact that it plays at such a fast pace tends to give the opposition plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that the Wildcats have allowed the opposition to connect on 26 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. The 'over' is 8-6 in Stanford's last 14 games following consecutive 'under' results and 23-17 in its last 40 contests following a win. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-16 in Arizona's last 37 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent and 14-9 in its last 23 contests following a home win by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-04-24 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Kawhi Leonard called out his team for its poor defensive play in Friday's 136-125 win in Detroit. In that contest, the Clippers allowed 45 made field goals for a second straight game. While the Clips haven't exactly been locked-in defensively on their current road trip, it's not as if they've been getting lit up either. Note that Los Angeles has held 10 straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. The Heat have rebounded following a seven-game losing streak to deliver consecutive wins over the Kings and Wizards. In those two contests they allowed the opposition to knock down just 41 and 37 field goals. Terry Rozier in particular has shown a renewed commitment to defense, even if it has come at the expense of his offensive production. Offensively, the Heat remain capped by a relatively low ceiling, noting they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in an incredible 18 straight games. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they got off more than 88 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 16-6 in the Clippers last 22 games following a win but non-cover and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after scoring 125 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Heat's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins as favorites and 12-9 in their last 21 contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-03-24 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 246.5 | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Bucks will certainly be in a foul mood entering this game after they dropped consecutive matchups in Denver and Portland to open their current road trip. I believe this contest has track meet potential as the Mavericks also look to bounce back following a drubbing at the hands of the Timberwolves last time out. Milwaukee continues to push the pace having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 12 of its last 16 games. While it hasn't been as consistent shooting-wise as we've become accustomed to it has still managed to connect on 45 or more field goals in three of its last five games and seven of its last 11 contests. Dallas is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS over its last seven contests. The Mavs rested a number of players in their most recent game in Minnesota on Wednesday and struggled mightily as a result. Note that prior to that game, the Mavs had connected on 43 or more field goals in four of their last five games. They continue to have a tough time slowing the opposition, allowing four of their last five foes to knock down at least 45 field goals. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams was a high-scoring one as they combined to score 257 points. Note that the 'over' is 26-21 in the Bucks last 47 games following an upset loss and 12-10 in their last 22 contests following consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the 'over' go 24-17 in their lat 41 games following a double-digit loss and 23-18 in their last 41 contests after scoring 100 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-03-24 | California v. Arizona State OVER 144.5 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between California and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. California ran into a buzz saw in Arizona on Thursday, dropping a 91-65 decision. That game still managed to stay 'under' the total - the Bears second straight 'under' result. Meanwhile, Arizona State checks in off a relatively low-scoring home defeat at the hands of Stanford on Thursday. The Sun Devils have struggled to find their shooting legs in recent games but should be afforded plenty of opportunities against a very forgiving Cal defense on Saturday. Note that the Bears have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. They've also yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Cal has at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Saturday's action. The Sun Devils rank an impressive 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that's largely based on early season returns. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 25 or more field goals. Note that the pace was there in the first meeting between these two teams this season (both hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts) but we saw just 48 combined made field goals in a game that cruised 'under' the total with 140 points. Note that the 'over' is 14-9 in Cal's last 23 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 13-11 in the Bears last 24 contests following a road loss. Arizona State has seen the 'over' go 6-4 in its last 10 games following a home loss in-conference and 7-4 in its last 11 home contests with the total set between 140 and 149.5 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose State and Nevada at 11 pm et on Friday. San Jose State sits tied for last place in the Mountain West Conference with just one win in eight games this season. Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-4 and staring up at seven other teams in the conference. Needless to say, I don't expect either team to play lock-down defense on Friday night in Reno. Note that San Jose State is on an incredible run of defensive futility as it has allowed five straight opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field with its last four foes knocking down 33, 34, 30 and 30 field goals. Nevada should be in a foul mood after connecting on just 19 field goals in a blowout loss at New Mexico last time out. Note that the Wolf Pack had made good on 35 and 39 field goals in their two previous contests. They've gotten bogged down by the better teams they've faced in conference play but San Jose State certainly doesn't fall into that category. The question is whether the Spartans can produce enough offense to help this total along. I'm confident they can, noting they've actually been reasonably consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. In fact, they rank a respectable 128th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. San Jose state played quite slow early in the season but has picked up the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last 12 games. Note that the 'over' is 10-6 in the Spartans last 16 games as a double-digit road underdog and 8-3 in their last 11 contests following consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in Nevada's last 22 games following a loss in-conference and a long-term 21-8 in its last 29 contests after scoring 55 points or less in its previous game. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-02-24 | Magic v. Wolves UNDER 212 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This game figures to have a bit of an old-school feel as the Magic and Timberwolves have proven to be two of the more slow-paced teams in the league while also proving elite defensively. Orlando has held five of its last six opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts. Going back further, nine of its last 12 opponents have gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a similar story with the T'Wolves as they've limited four of their last five foes to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. In fact, of Minnesota's last 18 opponents, only five have managed to connect on 40 or more field goals. As I mentioned, both teams are also playing at a slow pace themselves. Orlando has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 contests. Minnesota has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 205 points back in early January. Note that the 'under' is 19-14 in Orlando's last 33 games following a road win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-8 in Minnesota's last 25 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points and 6-1 in its last seven contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite (including a perfect 3-0 this season). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-02-24 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 247 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This projects as a track meet between the Suns and Hawks in Atlanta on Friday. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Suns right now as they've knocked down more than 40 field goals in 11 straight games, connecting on at least 46 field goals in eight of those contests. They draw a smash spot on Friday as the Hawks have been matador-like defensively, allowing their last six opponents to make good on 43, 43, 51, 51, 41 and 48 field goals. Note that three of the Hawks last five foes have gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Atlanta is quietly thriving offensively, knocking down 51, 44 and 53 field goals over its last three games. It was only a matter of time before the shots started falling and the Hawks preferred pace is fast, noting they've hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 17 contests. Once stingy, the Suns have been far more forgiving defensively of late, allowing seven of their last nine foes to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in the Suns last 33 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 in their last eight contests following a win by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-12 in the Hawks last 27 games as a home underdog and 20-11 in their last 31 contests after scoring 136 points or more in their previous game. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-02-24 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 237.5 | Top | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-31-24 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 227.5 | 108-98 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic offense is flashing right now, showing steady improvement in each of its last three games. It draws a mouth-watering matchup on Wednesday as the Spurs have been matador-like defensively allowing 47, 49, 48, 54, 38, 45 and 46 made field goals over their last seven contests. Orlando tweaked its starting five last time out and scored a whopping 77 first half points in an eventual 131-129 loss in Dallas. I do think the Magic are vulnerable defensively right now as they've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 45, 42, 41 and 43 field goals. That's not bad on the face of it but is concerning when you consider three of those opponents hoisted up 80 or fewer field goal attempts. The Spurs have been reasonably matchup-proof when it comes to pace, attempting more than 90 field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Offensively, San Antonio has quietly been on a roll, connecting on 42 or more field goals in seven straight games. Note that the 'over' is 23-17 in Orlando's last 40 games as a favorite and 35-20 in its last 55 contests following consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 29-14 in the Spurs last 43 games as a home underdog of six points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-30-24 | Blue Jackets v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 1-0 | Win | 102 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has cashed in the last five meetings in this series. That matches the longest such streak in the history of this series. It's happened twice previously and on both occasions the next meeting stayed 'under' the total. I expect a similar story to unfold here. Note that the 'under' is 13-11 in the Blue Jackets last 24 games following consecutive road losses. The 'under' is also 11-8 in the Blues last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Finally, the 'under' is 6-4 in the Blues last 10 games following four consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-30-24 | Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' is an incredible 13-2 in the Knicks last 15 games and I look for that trend to continue as they return home to host the Jazz on Tuesday. Utah got stomped by the Nets in Brooklyn last night. The Jazz are by no means playing good defensive basketball right now but I do think they get a bit of a reprieve in this back-to-back spot. Note that New York, while red hot off seven straight wins, has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in 16 of its last 18 games. It doesn't generally look to push the pace having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 15 straight games entering Tuesday's contest. On the flip side, the Knicks are as locked-in defensively as any team right now having held nine straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Jazz's last 14 games following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-1 in Utah's last seven contests after consecutive games totalling 245 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-19 in the Knicks last 45 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after a road win by 20 points or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-30-24 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Tennessee at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. South Carolina enters this game having scored more than 70 points in three straight games - all victories in SEC play. It will be hard-pressed to reach that number on Tuesday, however, as it travels to Rocky Top to challenge Tennessee and it's elite defense. The Volunteers check in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Gamecocks will need to effectively shorten this game by relying on their methodical pace, noting they rank 348th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). South Carolina can hold its own defensively as well as it has limited four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Gamecocks had a brief two-game outburst but that was against two poor SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Last time out they knocked down just 23 field goals in a win over Missouri and they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of their last seven contests. I mentioned Tennessee's elite defense, it has held 12 straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals and nine of its last 11 foes to 23 or less. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 in the Gamecocks last 12 games following three straight ATS victories, including 3-1 in that situation this season. The 'under' is 22-17 in the Vols last 39 games following an ATS loss and 6-3 in their last nine contests after posting three straight wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday. While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-28-24 | Marist v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 | Top | 80-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. While Marist rides a three-game 'under' streak into this matchup on Sunday, Canisius snapped a two-game 'under' streak with an 'over' result on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these two MAAC squads on Sunday afternoon. Marist has dropped the cash in six of its last seven games and that's been more to do with its punchless offense than anything else. The Red Foxes check in ranked 337th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 321st in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. They've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight contests. While Canisius is certainly no defensive juggernaut, it has held three straight and four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Marist actually sits just outside the top-100 (106th) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Red Foxes' opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down. Marist has limited five straight and nine of its last 10 foes to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Marist allowed more than 24 made field goals. In fact, it has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 24 or less made field goals. The Golden Griffins offense did get loose on Friday but that was against one of the worst defensive teams not just in the MAAC but in the entire country in Manhattan. Prior to that contest, Canisius had been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 29-18 in Marist's last 47 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The 'under' is also 18-15 in Canisius' last 33 contests following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-27-24 | Kentucky v. Arkansas OVER 164 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kentucky and Arkansas at 6 pm et on Saturday. Arkansas has fallen into a serious shooting slump, connecting on 24 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games entering Saturday's matchup with Kentucky. The good news is, the Wildcats are an NBA team disguised in college basketball uniforms and can drag any opponent into a track meet on any given day. Kentucky has allowed 33, 31, 31 and 29 made field goals over its last four games. The problem for the Razorbacks here isn't likely whether they can score on the Wildcats but whether they can stop them. Kentucky will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after dropping a 79-62 decision at South Carolina earlier this week. Note that the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals in 14 of 18 games this season. It's worth noting that the Hogs had knocked down at least 26 field goals in 10 of their first 13 games before falling into their recent funk. The 'over' is 22-11 in Kentucky's last 33 games following an 'under' result, as is the case here. The Wildcats have also posted a perfect 9-0 'over' mark in their last nine games following a road loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following consecutive defeats in-conference. The 'over' is also 6-1 in their last seven contests following a loss by 15 points or more including 2-0 the last two times they've come off a 20+ point setback. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-27-24 | Kansas State v. Houston UNDER 128.5 | Top | 52-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected against Iowa State on Wednesday. It had little to do with the pace of that contest, however, as the Wildcats hoisted up only 49 field goal attempts while the Cyclones countered with 51. Both teams knocked down an identical 22 field goals. That's about par for the course when it comes to Kansas State. It has limited six of its last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While Houston boasts its share of offensive talent, the Cougars are still at team that hangs their hat on their defense. Houston checks in having held 18 of 19 opponents to 22 made field goals or fewer. In fact, the Cougars are just one game removed from limiting Central Florida to a ridiculous seven made field goals. Also note that Houston ranks 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Cougars will take what the opposition gives them on offense but in this case that's not likely to be much against a Wildcats squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following Wednesday's loss. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 59-49 with Kansas State coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-15 in the Cougars last 38 games following an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-26-24 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 213 | 106-107 | Push | 0 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams have played some old school basketball lately with the Magic having scored fewer than 90 points in four of their last eight games (they also held three opponents to less than 100) and the Grizzlies failing to eclipse the century mark in two of their last six contests (they gave up only 96 points last time out). Orlando has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 78 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last three games. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they connected on 40 or more field goals. The Grizzlies have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six contests. Like the Magic, they've also been playing at a slow pace, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Given just how many key contributors the Grizzlies are missing right now, slow-playing it has been their best strategy and they've limited eight of their last 12 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 17-8 in the Magic's last 25 games following a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' go 4-1 in their last five contests following consecutive upset victories, which is also the situation they're in on Friday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 234.5 | 127-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Raptors have seen each of their last five games stay 'under' the total and I'm banking on that trend continuing for at least one more contest as they host the red hot Clippers on Friday. The Clippers will take the floor for the first time since Tuesday's 127-116 win over the Lakers. Note that the 'under' is 22-7 in their last 29 games played on at least two days' rest. Los Angeles enters this game on a scoring tear having produced 125 points or more in three straight games. That's happened only once previously this season and on that occasion its next game cruised 'under' the total, reaching just 214 points in Minnesota. The 'under' is 8-5 in the Clips last 13 games after scoring 125+ points in three straight contests. For their part, the Raptors have seen the 'under' go 14-6 in their last 20 contests following three straight ATS losses. The 'under' is also 14-11 in their last 25 games after an upset loss at home, as is the case here. While the 'over' did cash in the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season (in January), we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since 2016-17. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-25-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 152 | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mount St. Mary's and Quinnipiac at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday. Mount St. Mary's ran into a red hot Niagara squad on Sunday, falling by a score of 82-71. Note that the Mountaineers have seen the 'under' go 10-2 in their last 12 games following an upset loss. Mount St. Mary's has allowed just one of its 18 opponents to knock down more than 30 field goals this season. While that's a reasonably high number of field goals to use as a benchmark, it works in the context of this game with the total set in the low-150's at the time of writing. Quinnipiac has reeled off five straight victories going 4-0-1 ATS over that stretch. It actually doesn't run all that efficient of an offense but thrives on pushing the pace, something I'm not sure it will be able to do as much as it would like on Thursday (Mount St. Mary's has held opponents to just 57 field goal attempts per game on the road this season). Much of the Bobcats success has come as a result of a rather soft schedule, noting they've faced only the 358th most difficult schedule (out of 362 Division-I teams) in the country according to KenPom. The 'under' is 9-4 in Quinnipiac's last 13 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the Bobcats last eight contests when coming off a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-25-24 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 224 | Top | 143-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of relatively low-scoring contests. Boston enters riding a five-game 'under' streak while Miami has seen each of its last seven contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Heat continue to limit opposing offenses although part of that has been as a result of the opposition playing with a considerable lead and controlling the tempo. Boston has been fairly matchup-proof in that regard. The Celtics prefer to push the pace, having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 17 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, Boston's opponents have certainly gotten their fair share of scoring opportunities as the C's have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 15 games. Only twice over the last three seasons has Boston produced five straight 'under' results and on both previous occasions, the 'over' cashed in the next game. Also note that the 'over' is 39-34 in the Celtics last 73 games following a road win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-32 in the Heat's last 72 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Miami's last four games after four straight losses. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-24-24 | Capitals v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've become accustomed to seeing high-scoring games involving the Avalanche lately. In fact, each of their last five and nine of their last 10 games overall have totalled at least seven goals which is north of the number we're working with on Wednesday. I do think there's a 'catalyst for change' at work here, however, as the Avs return home from a long road trip to host the Capitals, who played in Minnesota last night. Note that Washington is allowing a respectable 3.1 goals per game on the road this season. The problem has been its offense, or lack thereof, as it has produced just 2.3 goals per contest away from home. Colorado, while known for its offensive prowess, has been stout defensively here at home, yielding just 2.9 goals per game this season. Note that this series has produced three straight 'under' results and a 1-4 o/u mark in the last five meetings. The 'under' is 10-5 with the Caps playing on the road with the total set at 6.0 or higher this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Avs last 12 games after allowing four goals or more in three straight contests, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 161-132 with Colorado coming off a road win in which it scored four goals or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-24-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 134.5 | 67-78 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Iowa State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Wednesday. Kansas State ranks 261st in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, while also checking in sporting the 21st best defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency). The Wildcats have held an incredible five of their last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. The Cyclones are a good but certainly not great offensive team. They did knock down 29-of-62 field goal attempts in an upset win at TCU last time out but that represented a high-water mark over their last five contests. They've connected on 27 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. On the flip side, Iowa State has been even better than Kansas State defensively, ranking an impressive third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. It has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the opposition has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down against the Cylones, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in six of the last eight games against them. Kansas State doesn't figure to push all that hard in that department, attempting 54 or fewer field goals in four straight and six of its last seven games heading in. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in the Wildcats last 12 games following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is an identical 8-4 in Iowa State's last 12 contests following consecutive 'over' results and 12-7 in its last 19 games following an upset victory. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 229.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Lebron James is expected to miss Tuesday's game for the Lakers as they try to secure a third straight win over the rival Clippers this season. While the Lakers have found recent success it hasn't been on the strength of their defensive play. They've allowed eight straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes connecting on at least 42 field goals. The Clippers figure to push them here, noting Los Angeles has knocked down 47 or more field goals in four of its last six contests. On the flip side, despite generally limiting the tempo of their opposition, the Clippers have allowed four of their last five opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. This will undoubtedly be a game the Clips have circled on their calendar not only due to the fact that they've dropped both previous meetings this season but also after they felt they let the Lakers off the hook in the most recent matchup on January 7th. In that contest, the Clips hoisted up 91 field goal attempts but connected on only 36 of them. Incredibly, that's one of only two times they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in their last 25 contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-22-24 | Bulls v. Suns OVER 229 | 113-115 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Suns have delivered three straight 'under' results following last night's 117-110 win over the Pacers. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however, as they host the Bulls. Chicago is playing as well offensively as it has all season, knocking down 46 or more field goals in four of its last five games. Also note that Chicago has been pushing the pace a little more than we're accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in five of its last seven contests. While it has also been playing well defensively it will face a tough test on Monday as Phoenix has connected on 46 or more field goals in five of its last seven contests and has made good on 49, 47 and 46 field goals in the last three meetings in this series here in the desert. Defensively, the Suns have been good but not great lately, yielding 40+ made field goals to the opposition in seven straight and 13 of their last 15 contests. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 49-24 in the Bulls last 73 games against Western Conference opponents. The 'over' is also 20-16 in their last 36 contests after giving up 100 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 11-7 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result this season and 37-26 in their last 63 contests at home with the total set between 220 and 229.5, which is the situation at the time of writing. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-21-24 | Lightning v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Lightning are coming off a relatively low-scoring victory in Buffalo yesterday afternoon. I expect a much different story to unfold as they make the short trip to the Motor City to face the Red Wings on Sunday. Note that this will be the second matchup between these two teams this season with Detroit having skated to a 6-4 win on home ice back in October. The 'over' is 27-19 in Tampa Bay's last 46 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-25 in the Red Wings last 74 contests following a loss by two goals or more, as is the case here. The 'over' is also a long-term 52-37 with Detroit coming off an 'under' result, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-21-24 | Heat v. Magic UNDER 215.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. If the Magic are going to shake out of their extended funk it's likely going to have to come on the strength of their defense. They've clearly lost their mojo offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time they connected on more than 44 field goals. The good news is, Orlando continues to play tough defense having held seven straight opponents to 43 or fewer field goals. Miami is in a similar situation as it has connected on 41 or fewer field goals in an incredible 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Also in a similar vein to the Magic, the Heat have held four of their last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 21-11 in Orlando's last 32 games following a double-digit home loss, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 in the Magic's last 15 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has seen the 'under' go 6-2 in its last eight games following an upset loss against a divisional opponent. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not buying the high posted total in this matchup as the Suns and Pelicans both come in rested in advance of Friday's matchup in New Orleans. Note that the Suns have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in each of their last 10 games. On the flip side, they've limited 14 of their last 15 opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. Of course, that's a reasonably high number of field goals to knock down in a game but not when we're dealing with a total approaching 240 points. The Pelicans have proven to be elite defensively this season. They enter Friday's contest having held an incredible 12 of their last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. That's no fluke. You would have to go back six games to find the last time a New Orleans opponent managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. That's the longest streak since 2019-20. That previous 'over' streak ended at five games as the next meeting totalled just 197 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday. Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-18-24 | Rangers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series, all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time we saw an 'over' result. I expect goals to come at a premium on Thursday as well. New York checks in off consecutive wins, rebounding from its recent four-game losing streak. Note that the Rangers have gone 13-9 on the road this season, where they've allowed just 2.8 goals per game. The 'under' is 32-26 in their last 58 contests following a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. While the Golden Knights have struggled to find the win column lately they have continued to play tough defensive hockey. Note that Vegas has held the opposition to just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. The Knights will need to continue to lean on that defense with a number of key contributors sidelined, including Jack Eichel. Note that the 'under' is 27-19 in Vegas' last 46 games following a home win in which it scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-17-24 | Canadiens v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Canadiens aren't rolling over for anyone right now, noting they've gone just 2-3 over their last five games but none of those losses came by more than a single goal. They should be feeling pretty good about themselves entering Wednesday's matchup in Newark as they're fresh off a 4-3 win over the Avalanche on Monday. The Devils will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following Monday's 3-0 shutout loss in Boston. Scoring hasn't really been an issue for the Devils lately, even without Jack Hughes among others. New Jersey had scored 21 goals over its previous five games prior to Monday's setback. The problem for the Devils here at home this season has been their inability to keep the puck out of their own net as they've allowed 3.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in the Canadiens last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-13 in the Devils last 34 contests following a road loss by three goals or more and 10-7 in their last 17 games following a loss of any sort. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Coyotes v. Flames UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met in Arizona less than a week ago with the Flames skating to a 6-2 victory. The Coyotes rebounded nicely from that loss, opening their current road trip with a 6-0 rout of the Wild in Minnesota on Saturday. The Flames are locked-in defensively right now having held eight of their last nine opponents to three goals or less. Calgary has held opponents to just 2.9 goals per game at home this season and interestingly, Arizona has limited the opposition to an identical 2.9 goals per contest on the road. Note that the 'under' is 14-9 in the Coyotes last 23 games when seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-9 in Calgary's last 28 contests after scoring three goals or more in four consecutive games, as is the case here. Additionally, the 'under' is 10-6 in the Flames last 16 games following consecutive road wins. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers OVER 227.5 | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup features two of the league's better defensive teams to be sure but it hasn't necessarily looked like that lately. Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While the 76ers have had their issues offensively over the last couple of weeks, we have seen them start to push the pace a little, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in six of their last 10 games. Denver has had no such issues offensively, connecting on 48, 48, 47, 37, 50 and 46 field goals over its last six contests. The scoring opportunities should be there on Tuesday, noting that Philadelphia, while generally stout defensively, has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 88 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Nuggets last 63 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 53-39 in Philadelphia's last 92 contests as a favorite. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-15-24 | Canucks v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Columbus at 1:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jackets have predictably struggled this season while the Canucks have been the talk of the league, in the conversation for the best team in hockey. This is admittedly a difficult spot for Vancouver as it wraps up a long seven-game road trip having already won five of the first six contests. The Canucks are coming off a 1-0 victory in Buffalo on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 when Vancouver comes off a game in which it scored one goal or less this season. The 'over' is also 13-9 in the Canucks last 22 contests following a game that totalled three goals or less. The Blue Jackets limp into this matchup having lost three games in a row. They've giving up 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 31-16 in their last 47 games following three straight losses. Columbus has been downright sieve-like defensively over the last three weeks, allowing four goals or more in three straight and seven of its last nine games overall. The 'over' is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Columbus. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do think the Maple Leafs have the offense to keep pace with the Avalanche, I question whether their defense and goaltending can hang in this matchup. The Leafs let the Islanders off the hook two nights ago on Long Island and that's been a common theme this season. Toronto returns home on Saturday but has given up an average of 3.5 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena. The good news is, the Leafs have averaged 3.9 goals per contest at home. Colorado's offense has lagged at times this season, particularly on the road where it averages only 3.0 goals per game. It should be feeling pretty good about itself here, however, noting that it has scored 40 goals over its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 113-125 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. Few are paying nearly enough attention but the Pelicans continue to dominate defensively having held an incredible nine straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 13 consecutive foes to 41 or less. Yes, the Pelicans have gone off offensively in their last two games, knocking down 50 and 54 field goals in wins over the Kings and Warriors but they'll face a more difficult challenge against the defending champion Nuggets in Denver on Friday. The Nuggets will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after getting blasted by the Jazz in Utah two nights ago. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that contest. Denver has still held 10 of its last 11 opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. At home, the Nuggets have limited the opposition to an average of 41-of-88 shooting. Note that the 'under' is 40-25 in the Pelicans last 65 games off a double-digit victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in the Nuggets last 22 contests following an upset loss by double-digits. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 139.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 237 | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers may have scored 132 points in Tuesday's controversial win over the Raptors but they actually got off just 81 field goal attempts in that contest, continuing a recent trend. Los Angeles has hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The 44 field goals they knocked down on Tuesday marked a high point over their last six contests. The Suns have had two full days to digest an ugly defensive showing in a 138-111 loss to the Clippers on Monday. They've still limited four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Given the pieces they have in place you would think that Phoenix would be lighting up the scoreboard this season but that simply hasn't been the case. They enter this game having connected on 44 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. On the road this season they're averaging only 40 made field goals per game while the Lakers are giving up an average of just 41 at home. Note that the 'under' is 31-26 in Phoenix's last 57 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 14-7 in its last 21 contests after losing its previous game by 15 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-24 in the Lakers last 69 home games with a total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 33-26 in their last 59 contests after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. Vegas skated to a stunning 7-0 home win over Colorado in the first meeting between these two teams this season. I expect a game played much closer to the vest in Wednesday's rematch. Note that you would have to go back six meetings here in Colorado to find the last time a game went 'over' the total. The Avalanche are coming off a string of high-scoring games but we'll note that the 'under' is 7-1 in their last eight home games after scoring three goals or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 13-4 in the Avs last 17 contests after allowing three goals or more in four straight games. The Golden Knights have posted an all-time 110-124 o/u mark when coming off a game that totalled seven goals or more, which is the situation here. The 'under' is also 42-34 all-time with the Knights off a home win by three goals or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-132 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Canisius v. Rider OVER 147 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. While a track meet between two struggling MAAC squads is probably the last thing on the mind of most bettors on a busy Sunday of sports action, I think we have an excellent spot to play the 'over' in this matchup. The Golden Griffins opposition has been stuffing the boxscore lately, knocking down 33, 31, 28 and 30 field goals in their last four games and Rider figures to take full advantage. The Broncs have lost three games in a row and are desperate for their first victory in conference play following another loss - by an 88-84 score - on the road against Quinnipiac on Friday. Like Canisius, Rider has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 28, 29, 27, 30 and 30 made field goals in its last five contests. Both teams are capable offensively. Rider knocked down 33 field goals in Friday's defeat while Canisius had an off shooting night but still got off a whopping 68 field goal attempts. The last time these two teams met last February they combined to score 159 points. Note that the 'over' is 17-6 in Rider's last 23 home games following three straight losses. The 'over' is also a long-term 116-84 with Canisius playing in a road underdog role. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-05-24 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 229.5 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Heat are coming off a lopsided win in upset fashion over the Lakers two nights ago. In that contest, they scored 100 or more points for the 12th straight game, extending their season long streak. Note that their previous longest such streak lasted just nine games. Of course, in today's NBA perhaps that's not such an accomplishment but for a team like the Heat, which I consider to be rather limited offensively, not to mention one that doesn't play at an incredibly fast pace, it's worth noting. The Suns do figure to test the Heat offense here, noting that Phoenix has held five straight and 13 of its last 15 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Also of note, the Suns have limited five of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, most expected the Suns to be one of the league's most explosive offensive teams with the additions of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Both have dealt with injuries, however, and have been in and out of the lineup. As a result, the Suns have been lukewarm offensively. They've knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in back-to-back and 16 of their last 20 games overall. In fact, Phoenix has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making good on them, hoisting up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 7-3 in the Heat's last 10 games following a road win and 9-5 in their last 14 contests after an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Suns last 12 games after giving up 130 or more points in their previous contest, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 42-34 in Phoenix's last 76 games following a loss. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting already this season between these two teams and we're inexplicably working with the highest total of the bunch. It is worth noting the 'over' has cashed in all three previous matchups this season. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were already one of the slowest paced teams in the league this season but they've taken it to another level lately, hoisting up an unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 76 field goal attempts or fewer in each of their last four games. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Pelicans have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. On the flip side they've held the opposition to just 35, 39, 36, 39 and 35 made field goals over their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 45-28 with the Pelicans checking in as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 35-21 in the Timberwolves last 56 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Washington State v. Colorado OVER 144.5 | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado at 2 pm et on Sunday. As long as Washington State keeps playing at the pace it has, the points will come. The Cougars have hoisted up 64 or more field goals attempts in five of their last nine games and figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against Colorado on Sunday as well. The Buffaloes allowed Washington to get off 65 field goal attempts in Friday's narrow victory - the Huskies simply had an off shooting night. In that vein, the Buffaloes didn't shoot particularly well either but should rebound here. Washington State has gotten progressively worse defensively, most recently allowing Utah to connect on 29-of-61 field goal opportunities in Friday's 80-58 loss. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 234.5 | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. It sounds like Bradley Beal will take the floor for the Suns on Friday and that has given this total a bump. It generally takes two teams to topple a total this high, however, and this is a miserable spot for the road-weary Hornets. Charlotte got drummed again last night, allowing 130+ points in a game where the Lakers simply couldn't miss (they shot 52-of-97 from the field). Note that the Hornets have now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Meanwhile, Phoenix has allowed 44 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 of its last 17 contests. On the flip side, the Suns went off two nights ago in Houston, connecting on 47-of-82 field goal attempts. While I'm not saying that performance is necessarily a one-off, I also don't think it's sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 44-32 in the Suns last 76 home games with a total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 47-41 in Phoenix's last 88 home games as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Washington v. Colorado OVER 155 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back to January of 2021 to find the last time these two teams eclipsed the total we're working with on Friday night. I think that changes here. Washington doesn't figure to pose much of a defensive threat against the high-flying Buffaloes. The Huskies have allowed opponents to hoist up an average of 64 field goal attempts per game this season with that number rising to 67 on the road. There is reason to believe Washington can keep pace to a certain extent. The Huskies didn't turn in their best performance last time out against Eastern Washington but still scored 73 points on just 23 made field goals. They're averaging 30 made field goals per contest this season. Colorado plays at a faster tempo at home, where it has yielded an average of 61 field goal attempts per game to the opposition this season. Both teams rank inside the top-90 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat saw their most recent game on Christmas Night sneak 'over' the total as they outlasted the 76ers on their home floor. Note that Miami has still held nine of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Heat connected on more than 41 field goals. The 'under' is 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 home games when playing on two of more days' rest, as is the case here. They covered but lost 120-114 in Denver on Christmas. Golden State has held seven of its last eight opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals and its last two foes to just 38 and 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 129-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets were involved in a relatively high-scoring game last night but what else would you expect against the Pacers. Houston ended up hoisting up an uncharacteristic 97 field goal attempts in that game, largely due to the fact it was playing from behind much of the way. I expect a different game script to unfold against the struggling Suns on Wednesday. While Phoenix has had a tough time winning games it has continued to limit its opponents' opportunities, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last six and nine of its last 14 games. On the flip side, the Suns have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 14 of their last 15 contests. Houston limited Indiana to only 82 field goal attempts last night but the Pacers quite simply shot the lights out, as it often does. The Rockets have been incredibly stingy at home this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 36-of-86 shooting from the field. Houston has seen the 'under' cash in 17 of its last 23 games as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-27-23 | Penguins v. Islanders UNDER 6 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off wild, high-scoring 5-4 affairs with the Penguins losing in Ottawa and the Islanders winning in Carolina. Keep in mind, the Pens are just one game removed from a 2-1 win over the Hurricanes and the Isles just lost 3-2 in Washington two games back. Note that the 'under' is 32-12 in Pittsburgh's last 44 road games after giving up four goals or more in its previous contest. Similarly, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Isles last 14 home games after allowing four goals or more in their previous game. We haven't seen the 'under' cash in any of the last six matchups in this series. That marks the longest 'over' streak in this series since 2003-04. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-26-23 | Hornets v. Clippers UNDER 228.5 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers are coming off back-to-back dreadful defensive efforts against the Thunder and Celtics but this looks like an ideal 'get right' matchup against the Hornets on Tuesday. Note that Charlotte has made good on fewer than 40 field goals in three of its last four games. The last time these two teams squared off was just over a year ago and on that night, the Clips held the Hornets to 37-of-92 from the field. Los Angeles will look to get going again offensively against a Charlotte squad that has at least been able to slow its opponents' pace. The Hornets have allowed 88 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 13 games. With the Clips averaging only 87 FG attempts per contest at home this season, I'm not convinced the pace will get this one to the posted total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-25-23 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat's four-game 'over' streak came to an end last time out against Atlanta while Philadelphia enters Monday's contest riding a two-game 'over' streak. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most in this Christmas Night matchup. Note that the 76ers remain an elite defensive team. They've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals - that's an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. Miami can also hold its own defensively having allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in four straight and eight of its last nine games. Add in the fact that the Heat have been scuffing their heels offensively, knocking down just 41, 40 and 40 field goals over their last three contests but check into this one in a near pk'em range and you can understand why I'm favoring the 'under' in Miami on Monday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-24-23 | Seahawks v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. With the Seahawks low-scoring victory over the Eagles on Monday Night Football still fresh in the minds of most bettors, we're working with a relatively low total in Sunday's matchup in Tennessee. The Seahawks will turn back to Geno Smith at quarterback for this contest. There's reason to believe Seattle's offense can thrive with a run-first mindset against a Titans defense that quite simply has no answers against the run right now, allowing 158 and 148 rushing yards in their last two games. Keeping the Titans defense honest with Kenneth Walker at the ground attack should serve to open things up for a red hot D.K. Metcalf and the Seahawks passing game. Speaking of turning back to veteran quarterbacks, the Titans will go back to Ryan Tannehill under center on Sunday. Much like the Seahawks against the Titans defense, Tennessee's ground game should roll against a very beatable Seattle run defense. Tennessee also catches a break with Seattle missing standout rookie CB Devon Witherspoon. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Titans last 63 home games after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 21-10 in Seattle's last 31 games following an upset win at home. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-22-23 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 244.5 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Friday. On paper, this sets up as a track meet as both teams are brimming with offensive talent. However, a closer look leads me to believe we're in for a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Note that Phoenix generally plays at a fairly methodical pace (by today's NBA standards). Last time out, the Suns did hoist up 94 field goal attempts as they were trying to rally against the Blazers in an eventual defeat. Prior to that, Phoenix had gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in eight straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to play well defensively despite having little to show for it in the win column. Phoenix has held seven of its last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Kings obviously pose a stiff challenge but the Suns did hold them to 114 points on 42-of-92 shooting in their most recent meeting on December 8th. Sacramento clearly got caught looking past an undermanned Celtics team that was playing the second of back-to-backs two nights ago, allowing Boston to knock down a whopping 51 field goals in the blowout loss. Prior to that, the Kings had held six straight foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. The fact that Sacramento took the first matchup between these teams this season is notable as the 'under' is 26-14 in the Suns last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-22-23 | Bruins v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I expect goals to come at a premium as both the Bruins and Jets enter Friday's clash in Winnipeg rested. Boston hasn't played since a disappointing 4-3 loss at home against the Wild on Tuesday, marking its second straight loss. Note that the 'under' is 33-20 in the Bruins last 53 road games following an 'over' result. The Jets check in off a 5-2 win over the Red Wings on Wednesday. The 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 in Winnipeg's last seven games following a home victory by two goals or more. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season but last season's two matchups produced just five and three total goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-20-23 | Red Wings v. Jets OVER 6.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Winnipeg at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Wings got off to a slow start against the Ducks on Monday and it ultimately cost them as their rally fell just short in a 4-3 loss. Perhaps Detroit was caught looking past Anaheim as the Ducks were in a difficult back-to-back spot away from home. The Wings have held their own on the road this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game. Winnipeg is coming off a disappointing loss as well as it dropped a 3-2 overtime decision against Montreal on Monday. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 118-79 with the Jets coming off a home loss and 52-29 when that loss came by a single goal. Better still, the 'over' is 12-4 in Winnipeg's last 16 games following an overtime loss. The Jets took the first meeting between these two teams by a 4-1 score in Detroit back in late October. The Wings fired 36 shots on goal in that loss, unable to solve Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. The good news is, they're expected to face Jets backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit on Wednesday. Detroit could certainly take that decision as a sign of disrespect with the Jets saving Hellebuyck for a presumably tougher matchup against Boston on Friday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-19-23 | Spurs v. Bucks OVER 249.5 | 119-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs enter this game riding a three-game 'over' streak while the 'over' has cashed in each of the Bucks last four contests. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. San Antonio had an off shooting night at home against New Orleans on Sunday, connecting on just 40-of-94 field goal attempts. It still scored 110 points. While facing the Bucks may appear to be a difficult challenge, Milwaukee hasn't exactly been an elite defensive team - far from it, in fact. The Bucks check in having allowed nine straight and 13 of their last 14 opponents to knock down at least 43 field goals. Of course, that's mattered little as the Bucks offense is on a torrid pace having connected on 44 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games. The Spurs have risen up defensively on occasion this season but are giving up an average of 44 made field goals per game on the road, despite the opposition attempting an average of only 88. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 210-156 with the Spurs coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here. The Bucks have seen the 'over' go 10-1 in their last 11 December home games with those contests totalling an average of 250.3 points. Milwaukee will continue its homestand with a game against the Magic on Thursday so there's no reason to think it will keep anything in reserve here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-18-23 | Panthers v. Flames UNDER 6.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Monday. While the Panthers are known for their offense, it's been their defense that has really shone on the road this season. Florida enters Monday's contest in Calgary having allowed just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. While the Cats did produce five goals in Saturday's win in Edmonton, the 'under' has cashed on five of eight occasions when they've come off a 5+ goal performance this season. The Flames snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Lightning on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 57-36 in Calgary's last 93 home games after losing six or seven of its last eight contests, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $759 |
Joey Tron | $580 |
William Burns | $483 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Tom Macrina | $468 |
Jesse Schule | $466 |
Matt Fargo | $398 |
Big Al McMordie | $324 |
Ricky Tran | $258 |
AAA Sports | $229 |