Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-30-24 | Clemson +3 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Clemson will try to accomplish what another ACC squad was unable to do two nights ago and that's topple Alabama on its way to a Final Four appearance on Saturday night. The ACC has exceeded expectations in this tournament, even if the Tar Heels did fall short against the Crimson Tide on Thursday. Clemson enters riding a red hot 21-11 ATS tear in an underdog role including a 9-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Note that Alabama falls into a rather poor situation here as it has gone 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests after scoring 85 points or more in its previous game, as is the case here, including an 11-11 ATS record in that situation this season. Clemson has climbed all the way inside KenPom's top-20 rankings nationally, closing the gap on 14th-ranked Alabama as this tournament has gone on. Clearly the Tigers were underrated entering this tournament but they come off their best offensive showing (29-of-59 shooting against Arizona) and have held four straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals (Alabama has held just one of its last six foes to fewer than 29). Take Clemson (10*). | |||||||
03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | Top | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over San Diego State at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of last year's championship game that Connecticut won in a rout, 76-59. I don't expect this game to be any closer - in fact, I think the Huskies hold an even greater advantage in this year's matchup. San Diego State checks in off wins over UAB and Yale with the latter victory coming in blowout fashion. Keep in mind, the Aztecs haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since February 13th and 16th. Connecticut on the other hand is on an ATS tear, grabbing the cash in three straight and 11 of its last 13 games. The Huskies rank inside the country's top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that San Diego State is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Aztecs are also just 26-29 ATS in their last 55 contests following consecutive wins including a 4-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, UConn is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games as a favorite including 24-11 ATS this season. The Huskies are quite simply built for postseason basketball, riding a long-term 36-23 ATS run in NCAA Tournament action including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine contests in the Big Dance. Take Connecticut (10*). | |||||||
03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over Alabama at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I think most are still sleeping on Grand Canyon, even after its upset win over St. Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. The Antelopes aren't some upstart - they actually check in 50th in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. They do everything reasonably well and play at a fast enough pace to not get overwhelmed by Alabama in this particular matchup. The Crimson Tide prevailed by double-digits against Charleston in the opening round. They continue to thrive offensively but can be had defensively, ranking just 117th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Note that Grand Canyon is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog including a 3-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. Alabama did cover the spread in its tournament opener but remains just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 NCAA Tournament contests including a 2-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. Take Grand Canyon (10*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | UAB +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on UAB plus the points over San Diego State at 1:45 pm et on Friday. I don't think UAB is getting enough respect after beating three quality opponents in three days on its way to an AAC Tournament title last week. The Blazers have quietly put together a 20-12 ATS record in lined games this season. While few were paying attention back in November, they opened the campaign with an extremely tough three-game slate, at home against Bradley followed by neutral site contests against Clemson and Maryland. UAB went 2-1 ATS in those three contests with the lone defeat coming by two points against Bradley. Going back to January 14th the Blazers have rattled off an incredible 15 ATS victories in 19 games. San Diego State certainly took the Mountain West Conference Tournament seriously, reaching the final against New Mexico (it lost that game 68-61). I see this as a tough opening round draw for the Aztecs as the Blazers figure to push the pace and make them uncomfortable. UAB is efficient enough to back it up, ranking inside the country's top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). A big reason why San Diego State has only managed to go 13-19 ATS this season is that it is good enough to be favored in most contests but doesn't generate enough scoring opportunities to cover those spreads. The Aztecs rank 266th in the country in adjusted tempo. UAB has connected on 30 or more field goals in five of its last eight games while San Diego State has reached that number just once since the end of January and six times all season. The Blazers have been a solid positive momentum play in recent years going 28-26 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win including a 13-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State is just 22-27 ATS in its last 49 contests following an ATS loss including a 7-11 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UAB (10*). | |||||||
03-19-24 | Cal-Irvine +7.5 v. Utah | Top | 75-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Utah at 11 pm et on Tuesday. Utah probably feels like it deserved a better fate but the wins and losses simply didn't add up for the Utes to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here they are in the NIT and while Cal-Irvine won't catch a lot of attention by name recognition only, the Anteaters have the pedigree and the personnel to give Utah all it can handle on Tuesday night. Cal-Irvine enters the NIT on an offensive tear. The Anteaters have knocked down 30, 30, 31, 31, 28 and 32 field goals over their last six contests. That's to go along with a defense that ranks 40th in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) - one spot above tonight's opponent, Utah. The Utes have quite simply been an unreliable bet since New Year's Eve, going 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. While the Anteaters failed to deliver the cash in their most recent game against NCAA Tournament-bound Long Beach State, they've never lost more than two games in a row ATS this season and that happened only three times previously. In fact, the Anteaters are 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah, meanwhile, has gone 57-69 ATS in its last 126 tournament games (in-season or postseason) including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons. I simply feel the Utes are laying too many points on Tuesday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Duquesne +2 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over VCU at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Duquesne on Sunday as I think the Dukes might just be the better team in this matchup. It's not as if VCU is having all that memorable of a campaign. The Rams have gone 22-12 and their current three-game winning streak is their longest since a four-gamer from February 3rd to 16th. Duquesne checks in 23-11 on the season and riding a seven-game winning streak. The Dukes have turned incredibly stingy at the defensive end of the floor, rising all the way to 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). They've won consecutive matchups with VCU including a double-digit road win just 12 days ago. The Rams have the pedigree but the Dukes have the better team in my opinion. Take Duquesne (8*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over N.C. State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. N.C. State has gone on an incredible run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive this week in D.C. but I expect its run to end here. There's obviously no love lost between these in-state rivals. The last meeting between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels was decided by only nine points but North Carolina was the better team by perhaps an even wider margin as it absolutely dominated the second half. Here, the Tar Heels come off a scare against Pittsburgh yesterday as they once again needed a big second half to pull away for a seven-point win. I expect a sharper performance from North Carolina here and it catches N.C. State off a late rally that saw it force overtime before prevailing against Virginia last night. Now the Wolfpack will play their fifth game in as many days and while they're hungry to earn that NCAA Tourney berth, I expect talent to win out on this occasion. North Carolina hasn't lost a game since February 13th at Syracuse and while it will be playing its third game in three days, the first of those contests was a glorified scrimmage in a 92-67 rout of Florida State on Thursday. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
03-12-24 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -13.5 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Vermont minus the points over New Hampshire at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Vermont escaped with a four-point win the last time these two teams squared off in New Hampshire just last week, failing to sniff out a cover as a nine-point favorite. I don't expect the Catamounts to face nearly as much resistance in this quick rematch in America East Tournament semi-final action on Tuesday. Note that New Hampshire is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit victory in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Wildcats are also just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, Vermont is 24-19 ATS in its last 43 contests following consecutive ATS losses including a 12-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons. Better still, the Catamounts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off consecutive straight-up wins but ATS defeats, which is the situation here. Take Vermont (10*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's -9.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over Santa Clara at 9 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's nearly let Santa Clara off the hook the last time these two teams met in late January. In that game, the Gaels built a seemingly insurmountable 22-point halftime lead before escaping with an 82-77 home victory. Keep in mind, the first matchup this season was no contest as St. Mary's rolled to a 73-49 road win. The Broncos will have the Gaels full attention for this WCC Tournament semi-final matchup on Monday. The last time we saw St. Mary's it fell by a 70-57 score in its regular season finale against Gonzaga. It has had over a week to chew on that double-digit defeat and as a result I expect to see a bit of a sling-shot effect from the Gaels on Monday. While St. Mary's does play at an extremely slow pace (it ranks 358th out of 362 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom), it is also very efficient, ranking inside the nation's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). For its part, Santa Clara ranks 114th in the same category. The Broncos play fast but I think it works against them in this semi-final showdown. Take St. Mary's (10*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Weber State minus the points over Montana State at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The door is wide open for the likes of Weber State and Montana after Sacramento State and Idaho State pulled off stunning upsets in Big Sky Tournament action over the weekend. I like Weber State in particular as it draws a quick revenge matchup against Montana State on Monday. Just one week ago, Montana State delivered a 76-64 win over Weber State as it quite simply shot the lights out on its home floor (29 made field goals including 13 from three-point range on just 55 field goal attempts). Keep in mind, earlier in the season the Wildcats rolled to an 86-64 win over the Bobcats. That victory over Weber State last week marked just a third win over its last nine contests for Montana State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats suffered just their second defeat in their last 10 games. KenPom has Weber State ranked a respectable 144th in the country while Montana State checks in 241st (out of 362 Division I teams). The Bobcats play at a reasonably fast pace but aren't generally all that efficient offensively - their last game notwithstanding - and I think that will play into this one getting away from them in short order. Weber State appeared in nine postseason tournaments in 11 years from 06-07 to 16-17 including three NCAA Tournaments but has gone through a dry spell since. With two of the Wildcats biggest roadblocks going down, the opportunity presents itself to go dancing this year and I look for them to take a step in that direction on Monday. Take Weber State (10*). | |||||||
03-10-24 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -4.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Arkansas State at 6 pm et on Sunday. Arkansas State just missed my card on Sunday and it was a mistake leaving the Red Wolves off as they rolled to a 27-point rout of Louisiana-Lafayette to advance to the semi-final round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday, however, as the Red Wolves are likely to be overmatched by the Mountaineers. Appalachian State needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern yesterday. The Mountaineers got a little ahead of themselves in that game thinking the Eagles were going to roll over down by double-digits at halftime. That wasn't the case and Appalachian State needed a late push in overtime to secure the victory. After that scare, I expect the Mountaineers to turn in a complete effort on Sunday. They're a much better defensive team than they showed in the second half of yesterday's game, checking in ranked 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas State does boast the 67th ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings) but I question whether it used up everything it had in the tank yesterday, knocking down 34-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns didn't pose any sort of offensive threat in that contest, notably making good on just 3-of-15 three-point attempts. Appalachian State elected not to involve the three-point game yesterday, attempting just 10 shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers made good on 8-of-17 three-point attempts in an 80-57 rout of the Red Wolves just last week. Take Appalachian State (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Georgia Tech +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is quite simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as Georgia Tech comes in having won four of its last five games SU and five of its last six ATS while Virginia has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests, winning outright only twice over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets faced the Cavaliers at their best back in mid-January as Virginia was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. Meanwhile, that loss against Virginia marked the first of three straight defeats and part of a 2-12 stretch overall. Note that Georgia Tech is 52-47 ATS in its last 99 games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Yellow Jackets are also a long-term 97-80 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Virginia is a woeful 8-25 ATS in its last 33 contests following a loss by 20 points or more in-conference. Take Georgia Tech (10*). | |||||||
03-08-24 | Western Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas-Little Rock minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Friday. Western Illinois enters this game on the heels of four straight wins but I think it's going to be in tough against Little Rock, which has reeled off nine straight victories and checks in 9-1 ATS over its last 10 contests. The problem Western Illinois is facing here is that it has allowed five straight opponents to get off at least 63 field goal attempts. Little Rock couldn't be any hotter offensively having connected on 28 or more field goals in five straight games and should welcome the up-tempo nature of this contest, ranking inside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Defensively, Little Rock has been locked in lately, holding four of its last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Trojans have limited an incredible 13 of their last 14 opponents to 25 or fewer successful field goal attempts. The Bulldogs are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by three points or less over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Take Arkansas-Little Rock (10*). | |||||||
03-07-24 | Niagara -7 v. Siena | Top | 66-59 | Push | 0 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game Niagara has had circled on its calendar since dropping a wild 93-88 decision at home against Siena back on January 15th. That was about as strange of a game as they come as the Saints connected on just four three-pointers but shot 62.5% from the field and knocked down a whopping 31 free throws. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here, or anything close. Note that Siena has been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Saints have allowed four straight opponents to connect on at least 27 field goals. Niagara has been struggling, dropping three straight games all in a favorite role. Note that the Purple Eagles are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 35-24 ATS in their last 59 contests following three straight ATS losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Siena is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games following consecutive ATS victories including an 0-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games following a road defeat in which they scored fewer than 60 points. Take Niagara (10*). | |||||||
03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Monday. Baylor continues to fly under the radar as a true national title contender perhaps overshadowed in a year where an expanded Big 12 boasts so many elite teams. The Bears enter this game off a dominant victory over Kansas on Saturday. They check in ranked 14th in the country according to KenPom with a unique mix of efficient but slow offense, ranking top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency but 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that mix to frustrate Texas on Monday as the Bears look to avenge an earlier 75-73 loss against the Longhorns. Texas is in a log-jam in the middle of the Big 12 standings but it comes in satisfied following consecutive blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Note that the Longhorns are just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They're 6-10 ATS in their last 16 contests following a double-digit win in-conference including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Additionally, Texas is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 contests following consecutive victories including a 1-8 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Bears are a solid positive momentum play having gone 20-16 ATS in their last 36 contests after scoring 80 points or more and 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS victory (15-12 ATS in their last 27 after consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here). Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
03-02-24 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -15 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm et on Saturday. To illustrate just how tough the Mountain West Conference is this season look no further than the fact that a team as good as Colorado State (ranked 33rd in the country according to KenPom) sits in seventh place with an even 8-8 record. The Rams enter this contest on the heels of three straight losses but I look for them to 'get right' against the Cowboys. This is a revenge game for Colorado State after it dropped a 79-76 decision on the road back on January 27th. That game saw a wide disparity at the free throw line in favor of Wyoming as it knocked down twice as many free throws as Colorado State (20-10). The script should flip in Saturday's rematch, noting that the Rams have permitted an average of just 15 trips to the charity stripe at home this season. Colorado State ranks 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and checks in having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, limiting half of those foes to 22 or less. Offensively, the Rams haven't been setting the world on fire and part of that is by design as they sit 271st in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). With that said, I see this as a breakout spot against a bad Wyoming defense that has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Cowboys rank 248th in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys are just 18-27 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss including a 5-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Rams are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 5-2 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Colorado State (10*). | |||||||
03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). | |||||||
02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Miami has now lost six straight games to fall all the way to 12th in the ACC standings. With games left against Boston College and Florida State, the Hurricanes can still move up two or three spots in advance of the ACC Tournament but they need to turn things around now. This is undoubtedly a game the Canes have had circled on their schedule as they let the Tar Heels off the hook in a narrow three-point loss against them back on February 10th. Miami connected on just six three-point attempts in that game and got to the free throw line only 13 times (making good on 10 of those attempts) in the loss. Since then it's been all downhill but I do think we'll see Miami rise to the occasion here. North Carolina checks in off a 54-44 victory over Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers quite simply couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities in that game, making good on only 16-of-58 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the Tar Heels had allowed at least 27 made field goals in five straight games prior to that contest. While North Carolina has yielded 30 or more made field goals twice in its last six games, Miami has done so just once in its last 12 contests (that happened on Saturday against Georgia Tech). Currently pacing the ACC by a game, the Tar Heels undoubtedly have their sights set on their regular season finale - a showdown with Duke on March 9th that might just decide who goes into the ACC Tournament as the number one seed. Note that the underdog has won four straight games ATS in this series. Despite their struggles this season, the Canes remain a long-term 123-79 ATS as a road underdog including a 12-9 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Tar Heels are also just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite including a 3-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. UNLV is flashing in this revenge spot against Air Force. The Runnin' Rebels turned in their worst performance of the entire season in a 90-58 home loss against the Falcons back in January. Note that UNLV is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss by 20 points or more against an opponent going all the way back to 1997 (only once over that stretch have they sought revenge for a home loss by 30 points or more). The Rebels enter this game locked-in defensively having held five straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Air Force has connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games. In fact, the Falcons have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting 52 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. While Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace and effectively shortening proceedings it has still allowed six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to connect on at least 24 field goals despite six straight foes only managing to get off 51 or fewer field goal attempts. The problem here is that UNLV is comfortable playing at that slow pace as it ranks 299th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels were held to just 22 made field goals in a narrow three-point loss to Nevada last time out but they have proven consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 contests, despite playing at that slow tempo. Note that UNLV is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 6-1 ATS in its last seven contests following an upset loss at home, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Air Force is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after losing six straight contests ATS and 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games off a road loss against a conference foe. Take UNLV (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | St. John's -10 v. Georgetown | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Georgetown at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we'll see St. John's go off on Wednesday as it looks to snap its three-game losing streak with a road date against Georgetown. The Red Storm continue to afford themselves plenty of scoring opportunities as they've hoisted up 69, 71, 69 and 68 field goal attempts over their last four games. Sunday's loss against Seton Hall snapped a streak of three straight games in which they connected on at least 28 field goals. Note that St. John's will be facing a Georgetown squad that ranks 307th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) on Wednesday. The Hoyas have allowed eight straight opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals with five of those foes connecting on 32 or more. On the flip side, the Red Storm have held four of their last five opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that Georgetown has made good on 27 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and that's despite getting off more than 60 field goal attempts in five of those contests. St. John's checks in 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five contests following three straight losses against conference foes. Meanwhile, Georgetown is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog and 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests following consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a true 'get right' game for Bowling Green after it was blasted by Louisiana and Eastern Michigan in its last two contests. Here, the Falcons will have revenge on their minds after suffering a 77-76 home loss against Central Michigan earlier this month. The Chippewas have benefited from some good fortune this season as they rank second in the country in luck rating according to KenPom's metrics. It shows as the Chips have held six of their last eight opponents to 24 made field goals or less despite six of those foes getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. In fact, Central Michigan has allowed its last five opponents to hoist up 66, 73, 70, 60 and 69 field goal attempts. It also checks in 324th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive rating. Bowling Green prefers to play at a fast pace - it simply hasn't been able to cash in on its opportunities over the last couple of games. I'm confident it can flip the script in this matchup. There's a fairly well-defined offensive ceiling in play when it comes to CMU as it has connected on 26 or fewer field goals in eight of its last nine games. The lone outlier over that stretch actually came against Bowling Green as the Chips made good on 31-of-61 field goal attempts in that game. I don't think there's any question the Falcons got caught looking past CMU on that occasion as they were fresh off an upset road win over Ball State. Note that Bowling Green is 3-1 ATS when coming off a loss in-conference this season and a perfect 2-0 ATS when that loss came on the road. Central Michigan is a long-term 67-84 ATS in its last 151 games after consecutive ATS wins including an 8-11 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Bowling Green (10*). | |||||||
02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Hokies have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 65-57 loss against the Cavaliers back on January 17th. Virginia Tech turned the basketball over 15 times in that game, allowing Virginia to play its game and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in 16 straight matchups between these in-state rivals. The Cavaliers have expended plenty of energy during their 9-1 run to climb to third place in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Hokies have a lot of work to do as they sit 6-8 in conference play with six games left on the schedule. The good news is the schedule is fairly forgiving down the stretch but the Hokies need to turn it around here following Saturday's blowout loss at North Carolina. Note that Virginia is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 23-30 ATS in its last 53 contests following a win by three points or less against a conference opponent. Virginia Tech checks in 25-17 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite and 5-1 ATS in its last six contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less. Take Virginia Tech (10*). | |||||||
02-12-24 | Kansas +2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas plus the points over Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Monday. I think the knee-jerk reaction is to fade Kansas here after it was stunned in overtime on the road against in-state rival Kansas State in front of a national audience one week ago tonight. We'll go the other way and back the Jayhawks as they look to snap a three-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. Note that you would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Red Raiders defeated the Jayhawks and that marks their only victory in the last nine meetings in this series going back to the start of 2020. While Texas Tech did snap a three-game losing streak with a 66-59 win over Central Florida last time out it still failed to cover the spread for a fourth straight game. The Red Raiders continue to play too loose defensively for my liking, allowing five of their last seven opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Give a team as talented as the Jayhawks enough scoring opportunities and they're going to break through, noting Kansas has connected on more than 30 field goals in four of its last eight contests. The Jayhawks have certainly shown signs of life defensively in recent games, holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and that includes last Monday's overtime game at Kansas State. Kansas ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and should be able to contend with a Texas Tech squad that sits 273rd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Note that Kansas is 15-11 ATS in its last 26 games following consecutive ATS losses and 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests following a home win by three points or less, as is the case here. Texas Tech is 11-19 ATS in its last 30 games after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less and 15-21 ATS in its last 36 contests as a home favorite of three points or less. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
02-10-24 | UCLA +1.5 v. California | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over California at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bruins have had circled on their calendar since a stunning 66-57 home loss against the Bears back on January 6th. UCLA has certainly turned things around since that loss, going 6-2 over its last eight games. It holds the rest advantage here having not played since Wednesday’s win at Stanford. Cal was involved in an overtime barn-burner - a game that it won on Thursday against USC. The Bears continue to give up too many scoring opportunities for my liking, even if aided by overtime last time out. They’ve allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up at least 62 field goal attempts. While the Bears have knocked down at least 25 field goals themselves in eight straight contests they’ve needed more than 60 field goal attempts to get there in six of those games. UCLA figures to put the clamps on the Cal offense, noting that the Bruins have limited seven straight opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that UCLA is 18-12 ATS in its last 30 road games and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored 60 points or less. Meanwhile, Cal is 10-15 ATS in its last 25 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six contests after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take UCLA (10*). | |||||||
02-08-24 | Iona -2 v. Niagara | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Iona minus the points over Niagara at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is a rematch of a game played between these two teams back on January 7th in which Niagara staged a 75-73 upset victory as a 9.5-point underdog. Since then, Iona has gone on a tear, winning five of its last six games while playing as well offensively as any team in the MAAC. I look for the Gaels to answer back against the Purple Eagles in this spot. Note that Iona has hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in each of its last seven games, putting a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. The Gaels haven't just been chucking it up though, they've also made good on 29 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. Here, they draw a mouth-watering matchup against a Niagara team that ranks 320th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). The Purple Eagles did hold up reasonably well defensively in their last two games but those came against a slow-paced St. Peter's team on the road and a struggling Canisius squad at home. Note that Niagara is just two games removed from allowing a miserable Manhattan team to knock down 32-of-71 field goal attempts here at home. While the Purple Eagles did take the most recent meeting in this series, they haven't won consecutive matchups against the Gaels since 2020. Iona is a long-term 34-27 ATS in its last 61 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent. The Gaels are also 21-18 ATS in their last 39 contests following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Niagara is 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games following consecutive wins in-conference and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 contests after holding its last two opponents to 65 points or less. Take Iona (10*). | |||||||
02-07-24 | Portland v. Gonzaga -26 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Portland at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Portland used up everything it had in the tank in Saturday's 93-89 upset win over Pepperdine - its second straight victory. This has still been a trying campaign for the Pilots as they check in 9-15 including 2-11 on the road. They're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday as Gonzaga comes off a tough 64-62 loss at home against St. Mary's. The Bulldogs were held down by a good Gaels defense in that game but that isn't like to be the case on Wednesday. Portland has allowed seven of its last eight opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts with five of those foes knocking down at least 34. In fact, KenPom rates Portland 335th out of 362 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga has made good on 32 or more field goals in six of its last nine contests and ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have been steady if not spectacular defensively, limiting six consecutive opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that Portland is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points and 26-44 ATS in its last 70 contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Gonzaga is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
02-06-24 | DePaul v. St. John's -21.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over DePaul at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are mired in a miserable season and they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Tuesday as they take on St. John's at UBS Arena. The Red Storm are coming off consecutive losses but those came on the road against Xavier and at home against Connecticut. They draw a smash spot here as the Blue Demons are as bad as they've been in quite some time and enter on the heels of 10 straight losses. DePaul has managed to knock down just 30 field goals over its last two games combined. The Blue Demons check in 289th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They haven't been much better defensively, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to make good on at least 30 field goals. St. John's figures to punish the DePaul defense here, noting the Red Storm rank 44th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 94th in adjusted tempo. Keep in mind, St. John's has knocked down 32, 33, 37, 37 and 33 field goals in the last five meetings in this series and those came against much tougher Blue Demon squads. DePaul is just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a double-digit underdog and 4-6 in its last 10 contests following a loss by 20 or more points in-conference. Meanwhile, St. John's is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games after losing consecutive games in-conference and a long-term 24-18 ATS when those two losses came by double-digit margins, as is the case here. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
02-03-24 | Kansas State -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State has fallen on hard times over its last three games and in particular in its last two contests, scoring only 52 and 53 points in losses against Houston and Oklahoma, respectively. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Saturday as they draw a manageable matchup at Oklahoma State. Kansas State still boasts a terrific defense. It has held eight of its last nine opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. It should thrive in this matchup, noting that Oklahoma State has knocked down 22 or fewer field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, the Cowboys have sagged defensively, allowing nine of their last 11 opponents to connect on at least 25 field goals. In fact, five of their last eight foes have connected on 30 or more field goals. Note that Kansas State is 16-11 ATS in its last 27 lined road games. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following an upset loss, as is the case here. Oklahoma State is a miserable 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog and 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take Kansas State (10*). | |||||||
02-01-24 | Oregon v. USC +2 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on USC plus the points over Oregon at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. This will be the second meeting between these Pac-12 opponents this season after Oregon posted an 82-74 win in Eugene back on December 28th. Note that the Ducks held a major advantage at the free throw line in that contest, getting there 32 times compared to the Trojans' 15. Oregon outscored USC 26-10 from the charity stripe, making up more than the difference in the game. The Trojans enter this contest riding a five-game losing streak. They connected on just 17 field goals in a dismal showing at home against UCLA last time out. Note that the only previous time they were held to fewer than 20 made field goals this season they rebounded with a double-digit win in their next contest (albeit against Brown). I like USC's chances of rebounding offensively here as well, noting that Oregon has allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Ducks have been ultra-consistent offensively but they're in uncharted territory right now having scored 70+ points in a season-high seven straight games. Oregon has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over USC since owning the series from 2010-17. Note that Oregon is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite including an 0-1 ATS mark this season. USC checks in 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Take USC (10*). | |||||||
01-26-24 | Ohio +3.5 v. Kent State | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Kent State at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Bobcats as they look to bounce back following a home loss to Akron last time out. Kent State is fresh off a minor upset win at Bowling Green earlier this week but checks in having lost consecutive games at home. Note that the Golden Flashes have won four straight meetings in this series. That's worth mentioning as they haven't won five in a row against the Bobcats since 2009-11. The last time they managed to win four straight games in this series was back in 2014-16 and they went on to lose the next two meetings. While Ohio doesn't rate out all that highly in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season it has played better in that regard lately. The Bobcats have held four straight and nine of their last 11 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Kent State on the other hand has given up 28 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests. Offensively, the two teams have been almost mirror images however you could argue that Ohio has been the more consistent team lately in that regard, connecting on 26 or more field goals in six of its last seven games (Kent State made good on 21, 32, 21 and 31 field goals over its last four contests). Ohio is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games following a road loss against a conference opponent. The Bobcats are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests after being held to 60 points or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, Kent State is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games following a road win in which it scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. The Golden Flashes are also just 1-5 ATS following an ATS victory this season. Take Ohio (10*). | |||||||
01-24-24 | Mississippi State +4 v. Florida | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Florida at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Mississippi State checks in 0-2-1 ATS over its last three games but I look for it to break out of that slump as it travels to Gainesville to face the Gators on Wednesday. The Bulldogs are an underdog we like to back as they have the ability to consistently erase opponents' possessions and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that they've limited the opposition to 22-of-56 shooting on average on the road this season. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and that's notable as Florida is just 1-5 ATS when knocking down 27 or fewer field goals this season. The Gators check in off a double-digit win at Missouri last time out, successfully rebounding from a blowout loss in Tennessee four nights earlier. Florida has been as Jekyll-and-Hyde as it gets, particularly on defense as it has given up more than 30 made field goals in three of its last five contests. It has had no desire to slow the pace, certainly not at home where it has yielded an average of 65 field goal attempts per game to the opposition. Noting the Bulldogs have knocked down 25 or more field goals in six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall, I look for them to take full advantage here. The underdog has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Bulldogs are 20-15 ATS in their last 35 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Meanwhile, the Gators are just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following a double-digit victory. Take Mississippi State (10*). | |||||||
01-23-24 | Boston College +5.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Like clockwork, Boston College has delivered five straight outright victories as an underdog in this series, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. While I'm not calling for an outright win on Tuesday, I do expect the Eagles to once again hang tough against the Hokies in Blacksburg. Note that Boston College has dropped the cash in four straight games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is fresh off an 84-78 upset win at N.C. State on Saturday. We have seen the Hokies offense sag at times since the beginning of ACC play, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Also note that Virginia Tech plays at a rather methodical pace, hoisting up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of its last 11 and 16 of 18 games overall this season. That leaves little margin for error when you're laying a considerable number of points as the Hokies are on Tuesday. On the flip side, we've seen Virginia Tech's opposition get some good looks, connecting on 30, 28, 28, 27, 25 and 26 field goals in its last six contests. Boston College has run into a bit of a shooting slump, knocking down only 21 and 19 field goals in its last two games. Note that prior to that, the Eagles had made good on an impressive 30 or more field goals in six of their previous eight contests. Defensively, we've actually seen some improvement from Boston College lately as it has limited three of its last four opponents to 25 of fewer made field goals. Note that the Eagles are 17-12 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss against a conference opponent. They're also 13-7 ATS in their last 20 contests after losing four games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 15-23 ATS in its last 38 games following an upset win away from home and 23-26 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Boston College (10*). | |||||||
01-22-24 | Cincinnati v. Kansas -7 | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Cincinnati at 9 pm et on Monday. Kansas was stunned as a double-digit road favorite against West Virginia on Saturday but I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back on as they return home to face Cincinnati on Monday. That loss to the Mountaineers doesn't change the fact that Kansas is an offensive juggernaut having knocked down 31, 32, 24, 29, 36 and 32 field goals over its last six games. The Jayhawks have held four straight opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. West Virginia quite simply shot the lights out against them on Saturday. It happens. Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 about as difficult as expected having dropped three of its last four games. Since the start of conference play, the Bearcats have been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in three of five games. Note that Cincinnati is just 33-40 ATS in its last 73 games following an upset loss in-conference, as is the case here. Kansas checks in a long-term 41-29 ATS off a road loss in Big 12 play. It's easy to think the sky is falling in Lawrence following a loss like the Jayhawks suffered on Saturday. That's simply not the case, however, as Kansas is 15-3 on the campaign despite facing the 26th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
01-21-24 | Fairfield v. Manhattan +7.5 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Manhattan plus the points over Fairfield at 2 pm et on Sunday. While Fairfield is coming off a hard-fought nine-point home win over St. Peter's on Friday, Manhattan has been idle since last Sunday, when it suffered its eighth straight defeat. I look for the Jaspers to give the Stags all they can handle in this spot, noting Manhattan has gone 30-24 ATS in its last 54 games as an underdog and 25-22 ATS in its last 47 contests following a double-digit home loss. While Fairfield's offense has been humming it has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 30, 28, 26, 23, 34, 26 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Manhattan has employed a similar matador-like defense but it isn't the team laying all the points in this spot. Fairfield is 9-13 ATS in its last 22 games played on one day or less of rest and 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Additionally, the Stags are a long-term 22-29 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games. Also note that the underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take Manhattan (10*). | |||||||
01-17-24 | Mississippi State +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off narrow defeats in conference play with Mississippi State dropping an 82-74 decision at home against Alabama and Kentucky falling by a 97-92 score at Texas A&M. I don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as the line would seem to indicate. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, currently ranked inside the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Incredibly, they've held all 16 opponents they've faced to 28 or fewer made field goals this season with 12 of those knocking down 24 or less. Kentucky does play at a considerably faster pace than Mississippi State but there's no denying its opponents have been 'filling it up' as it has allowed 26 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. On the flip side, the Wildcats have regularly been connecting on 30+ field goals but they've also gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. Only six of Mississippi State's 16 opponents have hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts this season with a high water mark of only 64. This is a game the Bulldogs have undoubtedly had circled on their calendar having lost two straight meetings in this series. Note that while Kentucky has controlled this series for the most part, the games have been close with six straight matchups having been decided by eight points or less. Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when coming off an upset loss as a favorite in-conference, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Kentucky is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests after winning two of its last three games ATS. Take Mississippi State (10*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | California v. Oregon -8 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but think California is walking into a hornet's nest in Eugene on Saturday. The Golden Bears trailed big early but staged a furious rally in the second half to upset Colorado two nights ago in Berkeley. Now they have to hit the road to face a red hot Oregon squad that has won five straight and eight of its last nine games, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. The Ducks have been idle since last Saturday's five-point win as an underdog at Washington State. Cal has been thriving offensively but here it runs into an Oregon squad that has held seven of its last eight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or less. Note that Cal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Oregon is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 80 points or more in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Michigan v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these Big Ten squads enter on a downturn with the Wolverines having dropped four in a row SU and five straight games ATS and the Terrapins fresh off three straight losses, including two in a row ATS. I think it's Maryland that's much better-positioned to rebound on Thursday. The Wolverines matador-like defense just isn't cutting it. Michigan has allowed a boatload of scoring opportunities on a seemingly every game basis and its opposition has made the most of those opportunities, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. The Terps offense went cold over the last couple of games but that was to be expected against the likes of Purdue and Minnesota. Here, taking a step down in class should benefit the Terps. Maryland does possess a defense as well, having held five straight opponents to fewer than 26 made field goals and an impressive eight straight foes to 26 or less. The home team has owned this series lately, taking five straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Maryland (10*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | Oregon State v. Washington -12.5 | Top | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Huskies are surprisingly at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings sporting an 0-3 record in early conference action. Keep in mind, this is a team that upset Gonzaga earlier this season and ranks just outside the top-50 in the country according to KenPom. Not only that but the Huskies are battle-tested having faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (also according to KenPom). They let Oregon off the hook two nights ago, jumping out in front by a wide margin early before settling for a halftime lead but then folding in the final 20 minutes. Of course, Oregon is no pushover. Here, Washington should benefit from facing an Oregon State squad that figures to eventually reside near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. The Beavers currently rank 159th in KenPom's national rankings and have only faced the 146th toughest slate of opponents. The home team has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Note that Oregon State is just 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Washington is an exceptional 18-5 ATS in its last 23 contests following a loss against a conference foe. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
01-05-24 | Niagara -1 v. Manhattan | Top | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. The Purple Eagles are off to an 0-2 start in MAAC play but they draw a favorable matchup on the road against Manhattan on Friday. Note that Niagara is coming off an upset win at Buffalo last time out. It should be able to take advantage of a Jaspers squad that has seen the opposition 'fill it up' this season and particularly of late. Manhattan has given up 36, 34, 31, 25, 28, 29 and 26 made field goals over its last seven games. Even in the game where it allowed just 25 made field goals it still suffered a double-digit loss on the road against MAAC foe Marist. Niagara is 21-18 ATS in its last 39 road games as a favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Manhattan is just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 lined home contests. Take Niagara (10*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | USC v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over USC at 9 pm et on Thursday. USC snapped a three-game losing streak with a 20-point rout of Alabama State last time out but it should find the going much tougher on Thursday as it opens Pac-12 play with a showdown against Oregon in Eugene. The Ducks rebounded from a 20-point beatdown at the hands of Syracuse by defeating Kent State 84-70 prior to the break. Oregon is now 4-1 SU and ATS over its last five contests. I like the Ducks chances of going off offensively in this one as USC's opponents have been stuffing the boxscores, knocking down 24 or more field goals in nine of 11 games to date. Oregon doesn't mind pushing the pace having hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in eight of its 11 contests so far this season. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
12-15-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga +5.5 | Top | 76-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga plus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Friday. Needless to say, Gonzaga has had this rematch circled on its calendar after falling by an 82-54 score against Connecticut last March. The Bulldogs get this game in their own backyard at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and with an upset loss against in-state rival Washington last Saturday fresh in their minds, I look for them to make a statement here. While Connecticut does rank an impressive fourth in the country according to KenPom, it has also faced only the 321st most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). Gonzaga ranks 11th in the country, taking a hit following last week's defeat against Washington. Note that the Bulldogs have gone up against the 86th toughest slate of opponents this season. Gonzaga is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a home win but non-cover, as is the case here. UConn on the other hand is just 30-34 ATS in its last 64 contests following a victory by 30 or more points, which is also the situation on Friday. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
12-05-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -7 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Indiana is probably feeling pretty good about itself following three straight wins, including an impressive double-digit win and cover at home against Maryland last Friday. I think the Hoosiers will get caught in a letdown on Tuesday, however, as they run into a Michigan squad desperate for a win off back-to-back losses against Texas Tech and Oregon. While the Wolverines are 1-4 over their last five games, only the loss to Long Beach State (a good team in its own right) was truly disappointing. The other four games over that stretch all saw closing lines of fewer than three points - in other words, they all could have gone either way. Looking at the positives, Michigan did score a whopping 83 points on the road against a good Oregon team last time out. KenPom still has the Wolverines ranked 20 spots higher than the Hoosiers at 49th in the country. With a tough road game against Iowa on deck, this is the spot for the Wolverines to turn it around. Note that Indiana is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 lined road games and a long-term 41-66 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Michigan, meanwhile, is a long-term 55-35 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less, which is also the situation here. Take Michigan (10*). | |||||||
12-03-23 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -1 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Clemson at 2 pm et on Sunday. Clemson is ripe for a letdown on Sunday following its big upset win on the road against Alabama back on Tuesday. The Tigers took advantage of a struggling Crimson Tide defense in that contest but shouldn't be so fortunate on Sunday as they stay on the road to face a Pitt defense that ranks 46th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Panthers offense was a no-show against Missouri last time out, perhaps dealing with a letdown of their own following a blowout win over Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Pitt bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | VMI +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on VMI plus the points over Navy at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the underdog Keydets as they face Navy on Wednesday. VMI checks in just 2-5 on the season but it has faced a fairly difficult schedule - the 110th toughest in the nation according to KenPom. Navy is 0-4 yet has faced only the 250th most difficult schedule by the same metrics. Note that the Keydets are averaging a whopping 10 more made field goals per game than the Midshipmen, despite getting off just six additional field goal attempts. From three-point range, VMI is knocking down two more shots while attempting just one more than Navy. It's a similar story defensively. VMI has held opponents to just 25 made field goals per game - just one more than Navy despite allowing nine additional field goal attempts per contest. VMI took this matchup by eight points as an 11-point home favorite last season. That 'revenge' angle is a big reason why Navy is installed as a considerable favorite at home on Wednesday. I believe the Midshipmen are laying too many points. Take VMI (10*). | |||||||
04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Tuesday. As high as I've been on Oregon at times this season, I think the time has come to fade the Ducks on Tuesday as they check in as considerable favorites against Wisconsin in NIT quarter-final action. First, it's certainly worth noting that Oregon is dealing with a cluster of injuries at the moment with no fewer than three key contributors questionable to return to the court for Tuesday's game. That's notable especially at this time of year when energy and depth tends to be depleted. The Ducks absences didn't cost them against the likes of Cal-Irvine and UCF but likely will here. Note that Oregon was fortunate that UCF had an off shooting night on Sunday as it made good on just 19-of-62 field goal attempts. The Ducks are playing with fire right now at the defensive end of the floor, having yielded 60, 80 and 62 FG attempts over their last three contests. Wisconsin figures to take advantage, noting that it is playing some of its best offensive basketball of the season now that it's out of the Big Ten. In fact, going back to February 22nd, the Badgers have made good on 25, 30, 23, 27, 21, 25 and 27 field goals and that's despite getting off 58 or fewer FG attempts in five of those seven contests. Defensively, it's been a bit more challenging but the good news is, the Badgers have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities for the most part, allowing 55 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. I do think they can effectively shorten this game with their methodical tempo, which is what you generally want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Only 15 teams have faced a tougher schedule than Wisconsin this season (according to KenPom), noting that the Badgers faced the likes of Dayton, Kansas, USC and Marquette in non-conference action this season, going 3-1 in those four games in particular with the lone loss coming by a single point against Kansas. Oregon, on the other hand, stepped up in class and lost by 10 points against Houston, 24 at the hands of Connecticut and four against Michigan State. Take Wisconsin (10*). | |||||||
03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. I have no problem with laying the lofty number of points with Florida Atlantic here, even after Fairleigh Dickinson shocked number-one seed Purdue in its tournament opener on Friday. FDU still checks in ranked 274th in the country according to KenPom - most glaring is the fact that the Knights are 353rd (out of 364 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having faced the 362 most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' offensive efficiency. It's obviously extremely rare for a 16-seed to prevail over a one-seed, even moreso when it shoots worse than 39% from the field as FDU did against Purdue. That upset had everything to do with the Big Ten champs looking right past the Knights, and paying the price for it. I don't expect Florida Atlantic to take anything for granted here - after all, it is coming off an 'upset' win of its own over highly-touted Memphis in the opening round. While the Owls didn't necessarily have their shooting legs under them, they still afforded themselves plenty of scoring opportunities - 65 field goal attempts to be exact. They've knocked down at least 25 field goals in an incredible 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Owls are certainly no strangers to blowout victories, with five wins by 20+ points to their credit over their last eight games alone. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). | |||||||
03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over VCU at 2 pm et on Friday. I think VCU carries a certain reputation when it comes to postseason basketball, due in large part to past success. I don't think this is a good matchup at all for the Rams as they take on a St. Mary's Gaels squad that many consider an afterthought after getting brushed aside by Gonzaga twice in its last three games. Entering the tournament, the Gaels rank 12th overall according to KenPom, displaying tremendous efficiency at both ends of the floor. It's a case of 'anything you can do, I can do better' by my estimation. While VCU ranks an impressive 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, St. Mary's checks in ninth. The Rams sit just 138th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency - a far cry from the Gaels 39th ranking. Did St. Mary's do it against a weaker schedule? Not even close as the Gaels have faced the 74th toughest slate of opponents this season (also according to KenPom) and the 56th most difficult non-conference schedule. VCU checks in 134th and 215th in those two categories, respectively. Note that St. Mary's has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins when coming off an in-conference loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. In fact, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests following a straight-up loss. While St. Mary's has gone a profitable 18-13 ATS in lined contests this season, you have to wonder if that record might be a shade better were it not for its opponents shooting an above-average 75.2% from the free throw line. Note that VCU has knocked down just 69.7% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season. Take St. Mary's (10*). | |||||||
03-11-23 | Grand Canyon v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Utah over Grand Canyon at 11:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams pulled off minor upsets in the semi-final round of the WAC Tournament yesterday. I'll back the revenge-minded Thunderbirds of Southern Utah on Saturday as they look to get back at the Antelopes after dropping an 83-78 decision in the two teams' last matchup just over a week ago. This game features a true contrast in styles as Southern Utah looks to push the pace at every opportunity, ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. By the same metric, Grand Canyon sits 291st. While that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Antelopes, they haven't really been able to impose their will on any of their opponents this month, save for perhaps lowly Utah Tech in a double-digit win on March 3rd. Since that defeat at the hands of Grand Canyon, we've seen Southern Utah knock down 29, 27 and 30 field goals in notching three straight victories. Interestingly, it's not the Thunderbirds that have been more vulnerable defensively, despite playing at such a fast pace. The Antelopes actually rank a disappointing 210th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Southern Utah checks in 149th despite facing a marginally tougher schedule. I simply feel that last week's result between these two teams is weighing far too heavily given how little most have paid attention to the WAC in general this season. Take Southern Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-08-23 | Oregon State +10 v. Arizona State | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona State at 11:30 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with Oregon State on Saturday as the Beavers won but failed to cover the spread against lowly California. While that was a rather uninspiring performance from OSU I do think it's well positioned to get back in the win column from an ATS perspective as it catches a generous helping of points against Arizona State in the first round Pac-12 Tournament action. Note that this will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. The Sun Devils took the first two but neither game was a blowout as they won by five and 11 points. Arizona State actually got off only 49 and 47 field goal attempts in those two contests, making good on a combined 46 of them. The difference was that ASU set up shop at the free throw line, getting there 27 and 26 times. I certainly don't expect a repeat of that here, noting that the Sun Devils average only 18 trips to the charity stripe per game this season. We know Oregon State is capable of slowing this game to a crawl, effectively shortening proceedings which is what we want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Note that the Beavers have held seven straight opponents to 58 or fewer FG attempts, allowing more than 25 made field goals just twice over that stretch. While Arizona State does rate well defensively, I do think Oregon State can find some success offensively, noting that the Sun Devils have allowed an incredible 21 straight opponents to knock down at least 20 field goals (that's not a lofty number by any means but can work as a reasonable floor for the Beavers here). In stark contrast, Oregon State has held three of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals. Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
03-04-23 | Kansas v. Texas -2 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. Kansas is red hot having won seven straight games. It hasn't looked particularly impressive in its last two victories, however, failing to cover the spread on both occasions. Here, I expect the Jayhawks to have their win streak stopped by a Texas team determined to end its two-game skid to close out the regular season at home. This is a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well after they dropped a spirited 88-80 affair in Lawrence back on February 6th. Note that Texas has lost just once at home this season, that coming in a wild 116-103 setback against Kansas State in January. The Longhorns current two-game slide is their longest such streak of the season. I don't like the fact that Kansas has given up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games entering this contest, opening the door for a Texas offense that has knocked down 25 or more field goals in four straight games and figures to bounce back after making good on only 25-of-64 FG attempts in a narrow two-point loss at TCU last time out. Take Texas (10*). | |||||||
03-02-23 | Stanford v. Oregon State +5 | Top | 83-60 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with Stanford in its double-digit victory over Washington last Sunday - a true 'get right' spot for the Cardinal after they had lost three games in a row. Now I feel the shoe is on the other foot as Stanford heads out on the road to face Oregon State on Thursday. The Beavers enter this contest having dropped three games in a row, including a tough two-point setback against rival Oregon last Saturday. I do think Oregon State can be a thorn in Stanford's side here, noting that the Beavers rank 109th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and 338th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom), perhaps offering a bit of a 'shock to the system' to the Cardinal after they faced Washington (which ranks 78th in adjusted tempo) last time out. For Stanford, it might be easy to overlook to the Beavers with a tougher (on paper) road tilt against the Oregon Ducks on tap on Saturday. That wouldn't be wise, however, as Oregon State has staged recent home upsets against the likes of Colorado and USC (both since the start of February). Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
02-27-23 | West Virginia v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw West Virginia rout Oklahoma State but I think the shoe is on the other foot this week as the Mountaineers stay on the road for a second game in three days. WVU is coming off a narrow two-point defeat at mighty Kansas on Saturday. The Mountaineers have now hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games but I think they're in for a 'shock to the system' against a revenge-minded Cyclones squad on Monday. That's because Iowa State ranks eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 325th in adjusted tempo this season, not to mention the fact that it has faced the sixth most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). The Cyclones are coming off three straight losses, both SU and ATS, going cold offensively at the wrong time. I do think the door is open for a breakout performance offensively here, however, noting that West Virginia has allowed 30, 26, 29, 20 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. The outlier over that stretch came against a fast-fading Oklahoma State squad last Monday. There really wasn't much separating these two teams in their earlier meeting this season - a game West Virginia won by a 76-71 score. The difference ended up being the Mountaineers making good on seven more free throws, getting to the charity stripe 31 times in that contest. The Cyclones have been a more disciplined team in that regard here at home this season, where they've yielded just 17 free throw attempts per contest. Take Iowa State (10*). | |||||||
02-26-23 | Washington v. Stanford -5.5 | Top | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 6 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Stanford's home loss against Washington State on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cardinal as they look to take their frustrations out on Washington, and snap their three-game skid in the process, on Sunday. Washington has been fortunate to run into a very manageable schedule lately, reeling off three straight victories over Oregon, Oregon State and California. The Huskies have been fortunate that their last two opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities as punchless Beavers and Golden Bears squads made good on just 20 field goals apiece despite both getting off well north of 60 field goal attempts. Should the Cardinal reach that level of shot-volume here they have the potential to go off offensively. Stanford has been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 23 or more field goals in eight straight games and 28 or more in half of those contests. A tough slate of opponents let to a defensive lull from Stanford earlier this month but I did like what I saw on Thursday as the Cardinal limited Washington State to only 48 field goal attempts in the narrow defeat. Washington doesn't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as the Huskies have managed to get off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games, making good on 23 or less in four of those contests. This is a big revenge spot for the Cardinal after they dropped an 86-69 stunner in Washington back in January. Stanford quite simply had an off shooting night and ended up chasing for much of the game, ultimately getting off a whopping 70 FG attempts but connecting on only 24 of them. I look for a much sharper performance from the revenge-minded Cardinal here. Take Stanford (10*). | |||||||
02-22-23 | Arkansas State v. UL - Lafayette -14 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Arkansas State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season saw Louisiana-Lafayette prevail by an 80-71 score on the road but that final tally doesn't tell the whole story. Arkansas State shot the lights out from beyond the arc to keep pace in that contest, knocking down 11-of-22 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves average just 6-of-18 shooting from three-point range this season. In fact, Arkansas State is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country, ranking 308th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced only the 256th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Not only that but the Red Wolves rank 342nd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom) so the scoring opportunities are rarely there to keep pace with superior opponents. That didn't stop them from securing a 75-70 win over Georgia State last time out. Of course, the Panthers have their own issues, ranking 320th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but that's another story. Louisiana-Lafayette has hit a bit of a lull having dropped three of its last four games including a 74-68 decision on the road against a good James Madison squad last time out. I'm confident we'll see the Ragin' Cajuns take their frustrations out on the Red Wolves here, however. Note that Louisiana ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 139th toughest slate of opponents. The Ragin' Cajuns have been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 24 or more field goals in eight straight and 27 of 28 games overall this season. That's in stark contrast to Arkansas State, which has made good on 24 or more field goals just once in its last eight contests. The Red Wolves had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games entering tonight's clash. On the flip side, while it may seem impressive that Arkansas State has held its last five opponents to just 21, 21, 25, 21 and 25 made field goals, that's had everything to do with the fact that those five foes all got off 57 or fewer FG attempts. Louisiana-Lafayette has hoisted up 58 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and figures to push the pace here, noting that it shot 29-of-56 in its previous road tilt against Arkansas State this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). | |||||||
02-17-23 | Dayton v. Loyola-Chicago +7.5 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Friday. Most completely wrote off Loyola-Chicago from a betting perspective in mid-January and perhaps for good reason as the Ramblers had started the 22-23 campaign with a miserable 3-15 ATS record through 18 games. Since then, however, Loyola-Chicago has gone a respectable 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and while it sits in last-place in the Atlantic-10 standings, all is not lose given all 15 teams will take part in the conference tournament in March. Here, the Ramblers will have revenge on their minds after dropping a tough 85-81 decision at Dayton back on January 31st, in a game where the Flyers owned a 31-13 disparity in terms of free throw attempts (keeping in mind Dayton only averages three more trips to the charity stripe than Loyola-Chicago this season). That game kicked off a 4-1 ATS run for the Ramblers and I look for them to improve on that mark here. Note that Loyola-Chicago has really turned things around defensively. After a stretch that saw it allow 28 or more made field goals in five of seven games from December 22nd to January 18th, they've yielded 26 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven contests. The outlier came in a game where they allowed St. Joseph's to knock down 28 of a whopping 68 field goal attempts. Dayton is highly unlikely to approach that level of shot volume here, noting that it ranks 339th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Offensively, we've seen more consistency from the Ramblers during their recent uptick as they've knocked down 23 or more field goals in six of their last seven games with the low-water mark coming earlier this week when they made good on only 21 field goals but still pulled out a 64-62 win at UMass. As I mentioned, Dayton plays at a very slow pace. The Flyers have hoisted up 56 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games overall. While they are a terrific defensive team, it's not as if they've been completely shutting down opposing offenses. Dayton has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 12 straight contests, including that game against Loyola-Chicago in which the Ramblers connected on 29-of-59 FG attempts. These two teams have faced almost identical schedules in terms of difficulty this season (according to KenPom) and while Dayton has proven to be the superior squad to be sure, Loyola-Chicago has at least narrowed the gap in recent weeks. I'm still not convinced the betting marketplace has caught up with the Ramblers improved play so I'll grab all the points I can get here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). | |||||||
02-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +8 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a previous big ticket on Georgia Tech in its upset home win over Miami in early January but have left the Yellow Jackets alone since and probably for good reason as they followed up that victory with a 1-7 ATS slide. However, we have seen signs of life once again from Georgia Tech lately as it enters Wednesday's matchup with Virginia Tech off three straight ATS victories. Last time out it suffered a narrow one-point loss as a 13-point underdog at Wake Forest. While few are paying attention to them, I believe the Yellow Jackets are in good position to at the very least take the Hokies down to the wire on Wednesday. We haven't necessarily seen the payoff just yet but the Jackets are doing a nice job of pushing the pace, having gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four and seven of their last 10 games overall. Here, they'll face a Hokies squad that has been terrific offensively in recent weeks but it has seemingly come at the expense of their defensive play. Virginia Tech checks in having allowed 29, 23, 35, 25, 29 and 34 made field goals over its last six contests. Of those six opponents only two got off more than 60 field goal attempts so it's not as if the opposition has found success only by volume-shooting. As I mentioned, Virginia Tech is on a tear offensively, however Georgia Tech does figure to offer some resistance. The Yellow Jackets check in a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 66th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). They've held their last four opponents to just 21, 26, 23 and 23 made field goals and that's despite three of those games coming on the road. Also note that Georgia Tech has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and ranks 220th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. There's a path for the revenge-minded Yellow Jackets (they dropped both meetings in this series last season) to effectively shorten this game and stay inside the generous pointspread. Take Georgia Tech (10*). | |||||||
02-14-23 | Buffalo +5.5 v. Ohio | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Buffalo in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to back the Bulls again in Tuesday's rematch in Ohio. While Buffalo has been involved in its share of track meets this season, I believe it is a better defensive team than most give it credit for. The Bulls got off to a terrible start at that end of the floor in non-conference play but have certainly turned things around over the last month or so, limiting eight of their last 12 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. That's despite 10 of those 12 foes hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Of course, the Buffalo offense is going to be there. The Bulls rank 163rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). They've faced the 118th most difficult schedule in the country while Ohio has gone against the 190th toughest slate of opponents (also according to KenPom). I mentioned that Buffalo has been tougher defensively than most give it credit for - I feel the opposite is true for Ohio. The Bobcats have allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down at least 28 field goals. They've been consistently allowing opponents to get well into the 20's in terms of made field goals despite holding seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Offensively, the Bobcats have admittedly been red hot lately, making good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last seven games. Of course three of those 30+ field goal performances came against three of the MAC's worst teams in Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
02-12-23 | Marist +10 v. Siena | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Marist plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Red Foxes in this Sunday MAAC matchup. Siena took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 15 points back on January 29th. Marist had an absolutely dreadful game from beyond the arc, knocking down only 2-of-18 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, it averages seven made threes per game on the season. In that previous meeting, Siena also got to the free throw line 13 more times, making good on 10 of those attempts. These are disparities I just don't see repeating themselves in Sunday's rematch. Marist has held five of its last six opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts, giving it a path to effectively shorten this contest as a large underdog on Sunday. The only occasion where it allowed more than that number, it won by eight points against Canisius. Offensively, the Red Foxes managed to get off 61 FG attempts against St. Peter's on Friday, but simply couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 19. Prior to that they had made good on 20 or more field goals in five straight games. Here, they'll face a Siena squad that has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 18 consecutive games, despite each of its last 11 opponents getting off fewer than 60 FG attempts. Offensively, the Saints have been limited to 52 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 22 or fewer field goals in all four of those contests. Take Marist (10*). | |||||||
02-11-23 | BYU +12 v. Gonzaga | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over Gonzaga at 10 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted in these two teams' most recent games earlier this week. BYU suffered a stunning double-digit loss at Pepperdine while Gonzaga rolled to a blowout win over San Francisco. That sets the Bulldogs up as a big double-digit favorite against the Cougars here. Note that BYU nearly staged the upset against the mighty Zags at home earlier this season, dropping a 75-74 decision as a +6.5-point underdog. Despite the loss on Thursday, BYU does enter this game playing well offensively - better than it was the last time it faced the Zags. The Cougars have made good on 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, they've held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Gonzaga shot the lights out against San Francisco last time out, knocking down a whopping 34 field goals. The Bulldogs haven't made good on 30 or more field goals in consecutive games over their last six contests. Defensively, Gonzaga has allowed 27 or more made field goals in four of its last six games with four of its last five foes hoisting up at least 60 FG attempts. In other words, the scoring opportunities should be there for the underdog Cougars on Saturday. Take BYU (10*). | |||||||
02-05-23 | Mt. St. Mary's +12 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mount St. Mary's plus the points over Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. With Mount St. Mary's coming off a 30-point rout at Iona and Quinnipiac winning by 15 points against Fairfield on Friday, most will likely be looking to lay the points with the Bobcats at home on Sunday. I'll go the other way, however, noting that Quinnipiac checks in a long-term 10-24 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. Mount St. Mary's has held four straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts (which just happens to be the average number of FG attempts it has allowed per game this season) and can effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday and ultimately keep the Bobcats within arm's reach. Quinnipiac has allowed four straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. While Mount St. Mary's is no offensive juggernaut, it does have a fairly solid floor when it comes to offensive production, knocking down 20 or more field goals in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest (that's notable given the slow pace it plays at). Take Mount St. Mary's (10*). | |||||||
02-02-23 | California v. Colorado -15.5 | Top | 46-59 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Thursday. This is a big revenge spot for Colorado after it was stunned by an 80-76 score against California in the teams' first meeting this season. The Buffaloes enter this contest on the heels of back-to-back losses and defeats in five of their last six games overall, both SU and ATS. I think we'll see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Colorado offense here after it got off 65 and 60 field goal attempts but could only muster a combined 45 made field goals in a pair of games at Oregon and Oregon State last week. Here, the Buffaloes figure to 'get right' against a putrid Cal defense (it ranks 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom) that has allowed 27, 31, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games - despite holding three of those four opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Colorado ranks top-20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, not to mention the fact it rates out 55th in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). I'm not convinced there will be enough scoring opportunities for the Bears to keep this one within reach. They rank a miserable 356th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Colorado has smothered opposing offenses, holding those opponents to 50, 51, 53 and 47 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
01-31-23 | Kansas State v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Kansas State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas State outlasted Kansas in a thriller in Manhattan back on January 17th - an upset that wasn't really an upset. Here, I look for the Jayhawks to exact their revenge as they look to build off a solid 77-68 win over Kentucky. Getting out of the Big 12 for a game was probably a welcome relief for Kansas after it had dropped three straight games SU and five in a row ATS. The Jayhawks got back to a winning formula in that contest, holding the Wildcats to just 51 field goal attempts. I look for them to frustrate the Kansas State offense on Tuesday as well, noting that the Wildcats have touched 25 made field goals just once in three games since reaching that mark in that January 17th win over the Jayhawks. On the occasion where they did they still fell by four points on the road against Iowa State. The Wildcats are coming off a 14-point win over Florida on Saturday. They were fortunate that the Gators couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down only 18 field goals in the defeat. Kansas State isn't likely to be so fortunate here, noting that Kansas connected on an impressive 31 field goals in Saturday's win and averages 29-of-61 shooting here at home this season. While Kansas State has been the far better bet this season - one of the best in the nation in that regard in fact - it has also faced the 39th toughest schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Kansas - no team has faced a more difficult slate of opponents than the Jayhawks based on the same metrics. The last time these two in-state rivals met on this floor, the Jayhawks won by 19. In fact, you would have to go back to 2018 to find the last time the Wildcats kept it to a single-digit losing margin on the road against Kansas. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
01-30-23 | Virginia v. Syracuse +5.5 | Top | 67-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Syracuse on Monday as it hosts Virginia - which has suddenly vaulted itself into the national title conversation on the heels of six straight wins. Here, I can't help but feel the Cavaliers are in for a letdown after matching a season-high with 30 made field goals in Saturday's rout of Boston College. Of note, Virginia also matched a season-low in ACC play by limiting the Eagles to only 20 made field goals. It figures to face a tougher test on Monday as Syracuse looks to bounce back from consecutive losses. The Orange had impressively knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29 and 23 field goals over its previous six games before shooting just 23-of-49 from the field against Virginia Tech on Saturday. Syracuse allowed the Hokies to make good on 32 field goals in that contest - a season-high allowed from the Orange. Here, we'll note that Virginia is 12-23 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that situation. The Cavaliers are also a miserable 3-11 ATS after winning their previous contest by 15 points or more, outscored by an average of 1.1 points in that spot. The Orange were right there with the Cavaliers for 40 minutes in their first meeting this season. I'm confident this one will go down to the wire at the very least. Take Syracuse (10*). | |||||||
01-24-23 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State checks in off its first ATS defeat in seven games on Saturday as it dropped a narrow two-point decision on the road against Oklahoma State. I'm confident we'll see the Cyclones bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they return home to host Kansas State. The Wildcats enter off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I still think this is a team playing with fire as it consistently gives up a ton of scoring opportunities, having allowed all seven opponents in Big 12 play to get off at least 63 field goal attempts and six of those to hoist up 63+. They were fortunate that Texas Tech was unable to make good on its opportunities on Saturday as the Red Raiders knocked down only 23-of-71 field goal attempts in a 68-58 Kansas State victory. We saw a glimpse of what to expect from the Kansas State offense against a smothering defense as it could only muster 20 made field goals on a season-low 47 attempts. Here, it will face an Iowa State squad that has held nine straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Only one of the Cyclones last six opponents has managed to get off 50+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Iowa State is coming off a poor shooting performance against Oklahoma State last time out. With that being said, you only have to go back four games to find the last time it made good on more than 30 field goals (34 in a win over Texas Tech). Noting that these two teams have enjoyed similar success this season but Iowa State has faced the 15th most difficult schedule in the country while Kansas State has gone against the 53rd toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom), we'll lay the points with the Cyclones here. Take Iowa State (10*). | |||||||
01-20-23 | St. Peter's +4 v. Marist | Top | 61-57 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Peter's plus the points over Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this spot sets up for a down-trodden St. Peter's squad that has lost five games in a row, going 1-4 ATS along the way. Marist is at the opposite end of the spectrum right now, having won three straight contests both SU and ATS. Still, I'm anticipating a reversal of those trends on Friday night. St. Peter's continues to play exceptional defensive basketball. The Peacocks always seem to have a terrific defensive system in place and they've stayed true to it this season, holding opponents to an average of just 20 made field goals on 48 attempts per game. Their last three opponents have knocked down just 18, 18 and 19 field goals. I'm confident we'll see St. Peter's frustrate the Marist offense here after it shot exceptionally well over the last few games. Keep in mind, the Red Foxes have actually gotten off 55 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight contests so it's not as if they've had a wealth of scoring opportunities. In stark contrast, St. Peter's has hoisted up 62 or more field goal attempts in three of its last six games. The difference here is, I expect some of those Peacocks shots to start falling, noting that Marist has consistently allowed in the mid-to-high 20's in terms of opponents' made field goals per game this season. Finally, I'll point out that St. Peter's is 68-41 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games going all the way back to 1997, as is the case here. Take St. Peter's (10*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. CS Bakersfield +9 | Top | 60-48 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Big West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cal State-Bakersfield plus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara at 10 pm et on Wednesday. In what projects as a low-scoring battle between these two Big West Conference foes, I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog home side. Bakersfield checks in off a blowout road loss at Cal-Davis but has managed to cover the spread in each of its last two home contests. Santa Barbara rides an eight-game winning streak into this one but failed to cover for the first time in its last six lined games in a five-point victory at Cal-Poly last time out. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Bakersfield allowed an opponent to get off more than 52 field goal attempts. You would have to go back the same number of games to find the last time one of its opponents knocked down more than 22 field goals. It all adds up to a lot of tightly-contested affairs. The argument can certainly be made that Bakersfield is the better defensive team in this matchup, especially when you consider it has faced the 203rd most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom, compared to Santa Barbara which has gone against the 319th toughest slate of opponents by the same metric. Bakersfield has dropped the last two meetings in this series by 12 and 19 points but that's after the first four were each decided by seven points or less. Take Cal State-Bakersfield (10*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | New Hampshire v. Maine -3 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Maine minus the points over New Hampshire at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Maine has lost five games in row entering this conference clash, yet two perhaps three of those five losses just as easily could have gone the Black Bears way. Maine has faced the 231st most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom - certainly not something to get too excited about. However, tonight's opponent, New Hampshire, has gone against the 329th toughest slate of opponents. The Wildcats are off a big outright underdog home win over Vermont as nine-point underdogs last time out. They've recorded back-to-back ATS wins just once this season, back in early December. Note that UNH is a miserable 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a win over an America East opponent, outscored by 5.3 points on average in that situation. Take Maine (10*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | Furman v. Mercer +7 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Mercer plus the points over Furman at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for underdog Mercer, a team that's not all that accustomed to being in that role here at home. The Bears have lost four games in a row both SU and ATS but I fully expect them to bounce back here as they catch Furman off consecutive wins and covers, with the most recent coming on the road against East Tennessee State. Note that while Furman is 8-1 SU at home this season, it has only managed to split its eight road contests to date. Mercer is 4-3 on its home floor compared to 3-7 on the road. I'll also point out that Furman has faced the 313th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom - in other words, the Palladins have been padding their 12-5 record with a rather weak slate of opponents. I like the fact that despite facing the tougher schedule, the Bears have actually posted the better defensive numbers, allowing three fewer made field goals per game despite allowing just one less attempt per contest in comparison with the Palladins. You can be sure this is a game the Bears have had circled all season after dropping all three meetings with Furman last season. Take Mercer (10*). | |||||||
01-10-23 | Oklahoma State +5 v. Kansas State | Top | 57-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma State plus the points over Kansas State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Oklahoma State in an underdog role in Manhattan on Tuesday. The Cowboys check in just 9-6 on the season - a far cry from Kansas State's sterling 14-1 mark. However, Oklahoma State has faced the 24th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Kansas State ranks 87th in that department. In spite of that, the Cowboys have been the superior defensive team in my opinion, allowing two fewer made field goals on two more attempts per game compared to the Wildcats. It's rare that we see Kansas State win a game in this series by margin. You would have to go back seven meetings to find the the last time the Wildcats won by more than three points - all the way to February of 2019. On the heels of eight straight victories, the last three coming in ATS fashion as well including back-to-back upset wins at Texas and Baylor, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Wildcats here. Take Oklahoma State (10*). | |||||||
01-08-23 | Rider +6.5 v. Siena | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Rider plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Broncs here as they look to snap their brief two-game skid (they've lost three in a row ATS) on the road against Siena on Sunday afternoon. The Saints have reeled off five consecutive victories both SU and ATS, including four outright wins as short underdogs (+3.5 points or less). I simply like the way Rider has limited its opponents scoring opportunities, even in losing efforts over the last two games, with its last two foes getting off just 49 and 55 field goal attempts. Siena has allowed two of its last three opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. On the flip side, the Saints have topped out at 53 or less FG attempts in five of their last six contests, making them difficult to trust laying a considerable number of points here. Take Rider (10*). | |||||||
01-05-23 | Portland State +6.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland State plus the points over Eastern Washington at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for Portland State and perhaps more so as a fade of Eastern Washington, which rolls in on the heels of seven consecutive ATS wins. Portland State has won just once in its last five games although it was the underdog in all five contests so perhaps that was to be expected. The Vikings have faced the 54th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Eastern Washington has gone against the 131rd toughest slate of opponents. I like the consistency the Vikings have shown offensively, knocking down 29, 24, 26 and 23 field goals over their last four games while also limiting nine straight opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a different story for Eastern Washington, particularly at the defensive end of the floor as it has allowed three straight and four of its last five opponents to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. Portland State has lost five straight meetings in this series but three of those games were decided by five points or less and the other two were settled by eight points. I expect the Vikings to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Portland State (10*). | |||||||
01-05-23 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -1.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 8 pm et on Thursday. Color me unimpressed by Southern Miss' 13-2 record this season as it has faced the 316th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. The Golden Eagles ride into this game off consecutive victories while Louisiana has dropped each of its last three contests and four in a row ATS. Note that the Ragin' Cajuns have gone against the 175th toughest slate of opponents by the same strength of schedule metric. Louisiana owns a perfect 5-0 record at home this season where it has outscored opponents by just shy of 30.0 points per contest. This is obviously a tougher matchup although it's worth noting that Louisiana handled Southern Miss by 21 points in last season's lone meeting. Southern Miss started the season hot on the road but has now dropped two of its last three away from home, with the lone win coming as a -13.5-point favorite against Lamar. Take Louisiana (10*). | |||||||
01-04-23 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech +6.5 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for Georgia Tech as it looks to snap Miami's nine-game winning streak on Wednesday night. The Hurricanes roll in red hot off consecutive ATS wins, including an outright underdog win over Virginia and most recently a double-digit road victory against Notre Dame. Still, we'll note that the Canes have faced just the 132nd most difficult schedule in the country this season while Georgia Tech has gone against the 70th toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom). The Yellow Jackets will obviously be amped up for this matchup as they check in off consecutive blowout home losses against Clemson and Virginia. Things won't get any easier after this game with road tilts against Florida State and Notre Dame on deck. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Jackets have had circled after dropping both matchups against the Canes last season. Of note, they were listed a just three-point underdogs in last year's home meeting with Miami. Georgia Tech is a long-term 79-53 ATS when coming off a game in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, and also 81-52 ATS when following consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Georgia Tech (10*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Buffalo as it looks to rebound after suffering losses in three of its last four games. There's really no shame in that slide as the three losses came against Tulane, West Virginia and Michigan State with none of those contests coming at home. Even against Tulane the Bulls were seven-point underdogs. All told, Buffalo has faced the 23rd most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Ohio has gone against the 196th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Ohio is just 2-5 on the road while Buffalo checks in 4-1 on its home floor. This is undoubtedly a game the Bulls have had circled since dropping last year's matchup against the Bobcats by an ugly 74-53 score as a 2.5-point home favorite. In fact, Ohio has taken the last two meetings between these MAC schools but that's its longest win streak in this series since winning seven in a row over the Bulls from 2011 to 2014. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on St. John's plus the points over Marquette at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Storm got off to a hot start this season but check into this matchup on the heels of three straight losses both SU and ATS. Shooting woes have cost them lately but I look for them to get that straightened out against Marquette on Tuesday. While the Golden Eagles have been terrific this season and check in off consecutive victories, including an outright underdog win at Villanova last time out, it's worth noting that they're still just an even 3-3 on the road (they've suffered only four losses the entire season so that's notable). Meanwhile, St. John's is 8-1 at home and will be eager to erase the memory of an 84-79 loss to Xavier the last time it took the floor here on December 28th. Note that the Red Storm are 20-8 ATS when playing at home after losing six or seven of their last eight games ATS going all the way back to 1997, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points in that spot. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
01-02-23 | Rutgers v. Purdue -7 | Top | 65-64 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Rutgers at 7 pm et on Monday. The Boilermakers have been absolutely burning bettors for over a month now, going 0-6-1 ATS over their last seven contests going all the way back to November 30th. I expect that slump to end here, however, as they host seemingly red hot Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS but streaks aren't all created equal. Note that Rutgers has faced the 249th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. That's in stark contrast to Purdue, which has gone against the 128th most difficult slate of opponents. Both teams are coming off consecutive glorified scrimmages against overmatched opponents. Here, I can't help but feel Rutgers is in for a 'shock to its system' after getting off 67 and 75 field goal attempts in its last two games and now facing a Purdue squad that allows just 56 FG attempts per contest here at home this season. Take Purdue (10*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | New Mexico v. Wyoming +3.5 | Top | 76-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over New Mexico at 4 pm et on Saturday. Wyoming has more than just held its own against New Mexico in recent years, taking three of four meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2020-21 season. Here, the Cowboys will look to hand the Lobos their first loss of the season, and I'm confident they'll do just that on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Note that Wyoming enters this game off three consecutive losses both SU and ATS. None of those games were played at home, where the Cowboys have reeled off consecutive wins (both SU and ATS), scoring more than 90 points on each occasion. New Mexico is a perfect 13-0 SU on the campaign and rides a three-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. However, the Lobos have only faced the 264th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. For comparison's sake, Wyoming has faced the 185th toughest slate of opponents. Take Wyoming (10*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | UCLA v. Washington State +8.5 | Top | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over UCLA at 11 pm et on Friday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Washington State in this Pac-12 matchup as the Cougars look to snap their two-game skid - which represents their longest losing streak of the season. Washington State has fallen out of favor with bettors on the heels of three consecutive ATS losses, but I simply feel they're catching too many points here. UCLA has won eight straight games, including three in a row ATS heading in. The Bruins current three-game ATS win streak includes victories over Maryland and Kentucky but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued here. Note that while UCLA has faced a tough schedule - 69th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom - Washington State has gone against the 38th toughest. Take Washington State (10*). | |||||||
12-29-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota +1.5 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on South Dakota plus the points over St. Thomas at 8 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for South Dakota as it enters off a stunningly-poor offensive effort against UMKC. USD has now dropped four games in a row both SU and ATS after opening the campaign with five victories in its first eight contests. St. Thomas on the other hand rolls in riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. It won its most recent road game by a 76-70 score at Idaho State. Here, we'll note that St. Thomas has yet to register consecutive road victories this season. Meanwhile, South Dakota has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in its last nine home games when coming off an upset loss, as is the case here. Take South Dakota (10*). | |||||||
12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Southern Illinois v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Southern Illinois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Off a 94-63 dismantling of Arkansas-Little Rock, Southern Illinois is getting some support at the current number against Oklahoma State on Thursday. I'm not convinced that support is warranted, however. The Salukis quite simply shot the lights out in their season-opener, knocking down 32-of-55 field goal attempts. My concern is they gave Little Rock 18 extra possessions thanks to turnovers, affording them a whopping 64 field goal attempts. Little Rock just couldn't take advantage. Oklahoma State returns four starters from last year's team and while it was also careless with the basketball in its opener, turning it over 17 times, it also forced 19 turnovers. That was the Cowboys M.O. last season and I believe it will be true again in 2022-23. In stark contrast to Southern Illinois, Oklahoma State made good on just 26-of-60 FG attempts in its opener against Texas-Arlington, never sniffing out an ATS cover as a -20.5-point favorite. On a positive note, it limited Arlington to only 59 FG attempts (making good on only 21 of them). I look for the Cowboys to find their shooting legs here and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Oklahoma State (10*). | |||||||
04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been on the sidelines for Kansas' tournament run but I'll step in confidently and back the Jayhawks here as they clash with North Carolina in the National Title Game on Monday night. North Carolina has afforded its opponents far too many scoring opportunities for my liking. Even in its thrilling win over Duke on Saturday, it yielded a whopping 72 field goal attempts. Over their last five contests, the Tar Heels have allowed 73, 81 (aided by overtime against Baylor), 62, 60 and 72 FG attempts. While they've done a nice job defensively as a whole, they've still allowed 25, 26, 28, 28, 18 and 30 made field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch was a game against an overmatched St. Peter's squad in the Elite Eight. In stark contrast, Kansas has allowed its last five opponents to knock down just 19, 21, 23, 19 and 22 field goals. Again, some of that has to do with the opposition simply not making their shots. However, Kansas has been doing it all season, allowing just 25 made field goals including only six from beyond the arc per game on average away from home. What I really like about the Jayhawks is the way they've tightened the screws defensively lately, giving up fewer than 60 FG attempt in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests overall. On the flip side, the Jayhawks have made good on 33, 30, 22, 34, 27, 22. 29 and 29 field goals over their last eight games - you get the picture, they've been ultra-consistent. The two outliers (22 made field goals) came in relatively low-scoring affairs against Texas Tech and Providence, two excellent teams in their own right. They still won both of those games by five or more points. North Carolina has actually knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in five of its last seven games. It has had plenty of success getting to the free throw line but faces a Kansas squad that affords its opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season. While we can't project the Jayhawks to go off from beyond the arc the way they did against Villanova in the Final Four, we also can't expect North Carolina to get off 64 FG attempts or get to the line 24 times the way it did against Duke on Saturday. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU minus the points over Washington State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe BYU is getting enough respect given how well it has played over the last month. The Cougars check in 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests with their only two losses over that stretch coming against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in St. Mary's and San Francisco. While Washington State has been playing well also, having won six of its last seven overall, it has also caught some good fortune along the way, particularly here in the NIT as its last two opponents have combined to shoot a woeful 40-of-118 from the field. Some of that can obviously be chalked up to good defense, but I'm of the belief that sometimes the shots just don't fall (note that prior to its last two contests, Washington State had allowed 25+ made field goals in five of its last seven games). Note that the Cougars of Washington State have actually afforded their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 64, 61, 60 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four games. Give BYU that many chances and it will take advantage, noting that the Cougars are scorching hot right now, having made good on 32+ field goals in four of their last six games and and incredible 72-for-134 from the field over their last two contests alone. Meanwhile, the BYU defense has done a good job of limiting its opponents opportunities, allowing 58 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. Keep in mind, Washington State has struggled to knock down its shots all season, particularly away from home where it averages only 24-of-61 shooting. By contrast, BYU has averaged four more field goals per game on one fewer attempt here at home (28-of-60). Take BYU (10*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CBI Game of the Year. My selection is on UNC-Asheville plus the points over Northern Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams staged upset victories in their respective opening round CBI matchups. I look for UNC-Asheville to be the team playing on following Monday's clash at Daytona Beach. Asheville has been nothing if not consistent offensively, making good on 25+ field goals in eight of its last nine games. While it has proven vulnerable defensively it hasn't shown a tendency to let opponents get out and run recently, limiting five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to Northern Colorado, which has given up 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and 70+ in two of its last three contests. Northern Colorado relies heavily on the three-ball to support its offense and that's notable as UNC-Asheville checks in allowing just five made threes per game away from home this season. We've certainly seen some inconsistency from the Bears lately as they're just one game removed from making good on only 19 field goals in an 88-67 loss to Montana State. They've been held to 57 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think Asheville won't be able to 'fill it up' here, with the Bears yielding 25+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games and 28+ in half of those contests. You could certainly argue that Northern Colorado is fortunate to still be playing, surviving against Florida Atlantic last time out despite the Owls getting off 14 more FG attempts in a game that went right down to the wire. Asheville is'nt likely to beat itself here, noting that it has been quite disciplined away from home this season, sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per contest while getting there 20 times per game itself. Take UNC-Asheville (10*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Auburn at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. At 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes have been one of the best bets in the country over the last month-plus. I certainly don't expect them to back down against the Auburn Tigers - one of the favorites to win the National Championship - on Sunday. Miami has been doing a terrific job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities and that continued against USC in the opening round. The Canes have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. While a number of their recent opponents have made the most of their opportunities, I'm not convinced we'll see Auburn do that here. Note that the Tigers have made good on 28 or fewer field goals in seven straight games, despite getting off 61 or more attempts in all but two of those contests. On the flip side, Auburn's relatively fast-pace does afford opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, as it checks in having yielded 61, 67, 64, 57 and 61 field goal attempts over its last five contests. Miami figures to take advantage, noting that the Canes have knocked down 28+ field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. I actually see this one playing out similarly to the Canes recent ACC Tournament matchup with Duke - a game in which they scored 76 points and lost by only four points. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Chattanooga plus the points over Illinonis at 6:50 pm et on Friday. I'm confident Chattanooga will be afforded more than enough opportunities to ultimately make life difficult on Illinois and ultimately take this one down to the wire. The Mocs are one of the more underrated teams entering this tournament in my opinion. They caught fire down the stretch and come in playing extremely consistent basketball at both ends of the floor. The Mocs knocked down 25+ field goals in each of their last eight games. You would have to go all the way back to January 12th to find the last time they failed to reach at least 21 made field goals in a game - in fact that was the only time that happened all season. While I'm well aware that Chattanooga plays in a lower-tier conference than Illinois but let's face it, upsets happen in March. The Mocs are capable of hanging with the Illini here, noting that they've done a terrific job of limiting their opponents opportunities, especially when the chips were down, allowing just 54, 57, 48 and 52 field goal attempts over their last four games. No surprise they yielded 66 points or fewer in all four of those contests. They only allowed 60+ FG attempts in four of their last 17 games. The argument could be made that Illinois peaked in late February, when they delivered consecutive wins over Ohio State and Michigan. From there the Illini went 0-3 ATS over their last three games. In one of those contests they outlasted Penn State 60-55 in a game where they knocked down just 18 field goals. While Chattanooga has done a tremendous job of controlling its opponents' tempo, Illinois checks in having yielded 60+ FG attempts in seven of their last 16 games. Again, I realize the gap between the two conferences but I still feel the discrepancy is worth noting. The Illini allowed 27+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as seems to be indicated by the pointspread. Take Chattanooga (10*). | |||||||
03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Vermont plus the points over Arkansas at 9:20 pm et on Thursday. There's obviously a lot of mental gymnastics that need to take place to figure out where teams from completely different conferences (and in turn level of opposition) stand as we head into the opening round matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Here, I do like Vermont's chances against what I consider to be an overrated Arkansas squad. The Catamounts absolutely laid waste to the opposition in the America East Conference down the stretch. Over their last eight games they've allowed more than 20 field goals in a game only three times (23 was the high-water mark over that stretch), limiting four of those opponents to 19 or less. I'm not sure their offense gets enough credit. They head into the NCAA Tournament having knocked down 28, 37, 26 and 37 field goals over their last four games, topping out at 63 attempts over that stretch. In other words, they're comfortable playing at a fast pace while also severely limiting their opponents scoring opportunities. Arkansas might just have peaked from mid-February into early-March, culminating with two near-perfect performances in victories over Kentucky and LSU. In three games since, we've seen the Razorbacks make good on just 23, 24 and 23 field goals. Meanwhile, they've been uneven defensively, allowing 30, 26, 23, 18 and 31 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't really shown all that much interest in controlling their opponents' tempo, yielding 61+ FG attempts in three of their last five games. While Arkansas will undoubtedly be a popular sleeper pick, I expect it to get all it can handle against an experienced and talented Vermont squad on Thursday. Take Vermont (9*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Iona plus the points over Florida at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Iona is more accustomed to playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT in recent years but here it is, drawing Florida in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday. I like the Gaels chances of not only staying inside the pointspread but potentially staging the upset here. Iona checks in having knocked down 31, 27, 23, 29, 29 and 25 field goals over its last six games, falling just a point short against Rider an upset loss as an 11.5-point favorite in the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels may have overlooked Rider in that contest as they simply didn't show up defensively, allowing the Broncs to shoot 29-of-57 from the field. Prior to that they had held six of their last eight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals, going 6-2 SU over that stretch. We saw Florida get drawn into some up-tempo affairs down the stretch, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games. That's obviously the pace Iona prefers and given where this total sits, that's the type of affair we can anticipate here. Concerning is the fact that the Gators allowed their last five opponents to knock down 29, 27, 30, 28 and 24 field goals, despite the fact that only one of those opponents got off more than 58 FG attempts. Take Iona (10*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Boise State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Aztecs are hoping it will be 'third time's a charm' against Boise State after dropping both regular season meetings by a combined six points. I like their chances of exacting revenge at the best possible time in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday. San Diego State is absolutely locked-in defensively right now, having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games heading into this one. While saying that the Aztecs have made good on 20+ field goals in 12 straight games doesn't sound like much, it is a major positive when you consider the low pace they play at (they attempted fewer than 50 field goals in half of those contests). Boise State isn't playing at the same level defensively as San Diego State, having yielded 26, 26, 28, 26 and 23 made field goals over its last five games. After shooting 50% or better from the field in four straight games, the Broncos cooled off to knock down just 23-of-49 shots in their semi-final victory over Wyoming. Note that in the two regular season matchups between the Aztecs and Broncos it was San Diego State that held a 38-31 edge in terms of field goals made. Boise State, however, got to the free throw line 21 more times across the two games, which ultimately proved to be the difference on both occasions. It's difficult to project that happening again here, noting that Boise State averages just two more FT attempts per game than San Diego State this season. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on VCU minus the points over Richmond at 8:30 pm et on Friday. VCU will be trying to accomplish the difficult task of defeating the same team three times in one season as it takes on Richmond in A-10 quarter-final action on Friday. I like the Rams chances. Richmond comes off a narrow 64-59 win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Spiders have picked a bad time to go into a bit of a shooting slump. They've knocked down 23, 20, 25 and 18 field goals over their last four contests, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS over that stretch. They had a tough enough time just getting shots off last night, attempting just 47 field goals in their victory over RI. Here, things won't get any easier against a VCU squad that has absolutely locked down the opposition defensively this season and particularly down the stretch. The Rams enter this contest having yielded 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their final three regular season games they gave up only 21, 18 and 21 made field goals. Meanwhile, the VCU offense has been humming along, making good on 24+ field goals in nine straight games including 26+ in seven of those contests. That's not all that impressive on the face of it but when you consider that most of those games were played at a relatively slow pace (with FG attempts in the 50-55 range for the most part) you get a better sense of how efficient the Rams offense has been. Here, I'm expecting a slightly faster pace, noting that the Rams got off 55 and 61 FG attempts in two regular season meetings with the Spiders, knocking down 28 of of those attempts in both games. Richmond shot just 42-of-117 from the field in those two regular season matchups. Richmond only managed to stay close in their home meeting and that was thanks to a wide 21-7 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, something that's unlikely to happen here. Take VCU (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Quinnipiac at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for St. Peter's as it takes on Quinnipiac in MAAC Tournament semi-final action on Friday. The Peacocks are as locked-in defensively as any team in the conference and perhaps the entire country right now (relatively speaking, of course). Going back to a February 4th matchup against the same Quinnipiac squad they'll face tonight, they've allowed 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Over their last four contests they've yielded just 13, 17, 15 and 19 made field goals. All the while they've been absolutely frustrating opposing offenses by slowing the pace. While Quinnipiac has knocked down 26+ field goals in three of its last four games, that's had a lot to do with playing at a reasonably fast pace, something we're not likely to see in this particular matchup. Note that the Bobcats shot a miserable 42-of-121 in two regular season matchups between these two teams - both went St. Peter's way by at least nine points. On the flip side, Quinnipiac has done little to slow opposing offenses lately, allowing 28, 27, 28, 29, 23 and 26 made field goals over its last six games. St. Peter's - despite playing at a snail's pace - has made good on 20+ field goals in eight straight games and 25+ in six of those eight contests. While the Peacocks are by no means a perimeter-based team offensively, they did knock down 17 three-pointers in two regular season meetings with the Bobcats. That's not all that surprising considering Quinnipiac yields nine made threes per game this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). | |||||||
03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over UCF at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed badly with South Florida in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 75-47 decision at Temple to close out the regular season last Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Bulls here, however, as I do feel they're well-positioned to give Central Florida all it can handle on Thursday. Lost in that blowout defeat against Temple was the fact that the Bulls did once again hold up alright defensively (given the circumstances - with their offense unable to hit a shot), allowing just 22 made field goals on 56 attempts. USF has now yielded only 20, 22, 16, 19, 24 and 22 made field goals over its last six games. When a team plays like that, it makes it tough on the opponent to cover a lofty pointspread, as we're dealing with here. Keep in mind, prior to Sunday's game, the Bulls had shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 20+ field goals in nine straight games and hitting 25, 23 and 25 in their last there - all ATS victories. I do think the Bulls can frustrate an average UCF offense here. The Knights are used to getting up into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. The last two times they were held to fewer than 60 attempts they eked out a three-point win at home against East Carolina (as a nine-point favorite) and lost by one point at Tulsa (as a one-point favorite). The Knights have regularly been allowing opponents to get loose offensively, allowing 23 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games (no fewer than 22 over that period) after a stretch in late January-early February that saw them hold consecutive opponents to 22, 21 and 18. USF took the first meeting in this series this season in blowout fashion at home before a revenge-minded Knights squad returned the favor on their home floor. In the Bulls 19-point road loss to UCF on February 3rd, they knocked down only 18 field goals including only 2-of-13 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCF poured in 14 threes. The fact that the margin was 'only' 19 points was actually encouraging heading into this one as far as I'm concerned, as the Bulls really can't play any worse than they did on that occasion. Take South Florida (10*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Georgetown at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It's been an absolutely disastrous season for Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. They do, however, enter the Big East Tournament having gone 4-2 ATS over their last six games. That's little consolation, of course, and only serves to give us the opportunity to back Seton Hall at a discount here, noting that the Pirates closed as 13.5-point favorites against the Hoyas just last week. The Pirates only won that game by five points as they turned in a poor 4-of-20 shooting effort from beyond the arc. I certainly anticipate improvement in that regard here, noting that the Pirates average seven made threes per game away from home this season while Georgetown gives up an average of nine. While the Hoyas did enjoy some late season pointspread success, the fact is they check in having given up 30, 30, 28, 30, 24, 23, 30, 28 and 35 made field goals over their last nine games. In other words, they were consistently awful at the defensive end of the floor. That's to go along with an offense that last knocked down more than 27 field goals in a game way back on December 18th - before the start of Big East play. On the flip side, Seton Hall had to learn to run their offense without PG Bryce Aiken down the stretch and did so nicely, securing five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) leading up to this tournament. The Pirates made good on 25, 29, 28 and 27 field goals in their last four regular season games and while that's steady performance, I look for them to show some improvement in this mouth-watering matchup. It's defensively where Seton Hall has really shone. Opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone hitting them, with the Pirates yielding just 59, 54, 50, 57 and 54 field goal attempts during their five-game winning streak. The high-water mark was 59 and in that contest Seton Hall allowed DePaul to make only 19 of those attempts. Take Seton Hall (10*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
America East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland-Baltimore County minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Beating a team three times in one season is no simply task but I expect Maryland-Baltimore County to accomplish that feat and book its spot in the America East Championship Game with a convincing victory over Hartford on Wednesday. Both regular season meetings were relatively close but the Retrievers ultimately prevailed by four and seven-point margins. Hartford actually got off 61 and 65 field goal attempts in those two contests while UMBC attempted just 52 and 50 field goals yet the Hawks still fell short on both occasions. Given Hartford's current form, having knocked down just 21, 27 and 16 field goals in its last three games, I'm not convinced it will be able to stay within arm's reach this time around. Note that UMBC will give up plenty of opportunities, yielding 60+ FG attempts in six straight games entering this matchup. But the Hawks aren't really adept at pushing the pace, shooting just 25-of-55 on the road this season, and have attempted fewer than 50 field goals in three of their last six games. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable environment for Hartford on Wednesday. UMBC checks in having made good on 33, 23, 25, 29, 28 and 29 field goals over its last six contests, scoring 90+ points in four of those games. In other words, the Retrievers have been very consistent in what they do on offense. While they do allow opponents to get out and run, they've only given up an average of 27 made field goals per game (on an average of 61 attempts per contest) here at home this season. As an added bonus, the Retrievers check in as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, knocking down just shy of 80% of their attempts. I don't need to tell you how much that matters at this time of year especially. Take Maryland-Baltimore County (10*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this ACC Tournament opener sets up for Boston College. The Eagles do limp into the tourney off three consecutive SU and ATS losses but none of those defeats were for lack of trying. The Eagles actually missed the cover by just a bucket last time out at Georgia Tech, putting forth a valiant effort in an 82-78 loss as a three-point underdog. I like the consistency Boston College has shown offensively down the stretch, knocking down 26 or more field goals in four of its last five games, despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all five of those contests. While the Eagles defense did lag in their final two games allowing 31 and 30 made field goals, they did continue to do a good job of controlling tempo, yielding no more than 56 field goal attempts in any of their last five games (in that game where they gave up 56, Florida State knocked down only 19 of them). Pitt has dropped each of its last four games both SU and ATS. It reached a high-water mark of only 25 made field goals over that stretch. Away from its home floor this season, the Panthers averaged a woeful 20 made field goals per game, having a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting just 50 field goals per contest in 'away' games. While Boston College at least showed some signs of life defensively in the final few weeks of the season, Pitt got torched for 26, 32, 32 and 27 made field goals over its final four games. The 27 allowed against Notre Dame in its regular season finale came on just 48 attempts. In fact, the Panthers last three opponents all shot better than 55% from the field. While Pitt did manage to split the regular season series against Boston College that was only thanks to getting to the free throw line 28 times in its home matchup (a game the Panthers won by just two points, failing to cover as three-point favorites). BC took the return match in Chestnut Hill by 13 points as a 3.5-point favorite on January 30th. Take Boston College (10*). | |||||||
03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |