Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-06-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I’m expecting plenty of offense as the Mets look to build on last night‘s victory which pushed them over the .500 mark for the first time since May. Note the pitching change for the Marlins with Noesi starting in place of Yamomoto. I’ll still play the over following the change as the Mets are playing with plenty of confidence at the dish and should have little trouble getting to the journeyman Hector Noesi, who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since he was a member of the White Sox back in 2015. Zack Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings for the Mets in his last start but prior to that had been tagged for nine earned runs over two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings. The Marlins are reeling right now but have still managed to score at least four runs in four of their last six contests and we don’t need a slugfest to cash this ticket given the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oakland and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We settled for a push with the under as the Cubs completed a sweep of the Brewers yesterday but I’ll go the other way and back the over as they open a series with the A’s on Monday. It was a relatively low scoring series between the Cubs and Brewers but I believe the conditions are right for a slugfest here. Note that A’s starter Chris Bassitt has been far better at home than on the road lately where he has been tagged for 12 earned runs in his last 16 2/3 innings. Kyle Hendricks is enjoying a tremendous campaign for the Cubs but faces a tough challenge against an A’s club that has plated 17 runs during its current three-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both the Brewers and Pirates enter this series struggling which would lead many to believe we‘re In for a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Jordan Lyles will face his former club in the series opener. Lyles hasn’t pitched particularly well here at PNC Park this season, allowing 23 earned runs in his last 23 innings pitched here. Dario Agrazal will counter for the Buccos. His last start totaled just five runs against the Reds but don’t be fooled by that result as Agrazal didn’t get out of the fourth inning in that game. After steady performance in his first handful of big league starts, Agrazal has now given up eight earned runs in just nine frames over his last two outings. Take the over. | |||||||
08-04-19 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I'll stick with the trends and call for another relatively low-scoring affair between the Brewers and Cubs on Sunday afternoon. Chicago has scored more than four runs just twice over its last 12 games. Likewise, the Brewers have topped out at five runs over their last nine games and haven't scored more than four runs in any of their last six contests. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has gotten better as the season has gone on, allowing just one earned run on three hits over five innings last time out against Oakland. Yu Darvish has worked at least six innings in five straight starts for the Cubs, allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-02-19 | Reds v. Braves OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The opener of this series was low-scoring as Atlanta cruised to a 4-1 victory. I expect to see a different story unfold on Friday night, however. Alex Wood will take the ball for the Reds. He labored a bit in his first start back from injury, needing 80 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings against the Rockies. Note that he'll be facing a Braves club that averages 5.5 runs per game at home this season. Kevin Gausman will counter for Atlanta. He's been rocked in two previous starts against the Reds, giving up 13 earned runs on 16 hits over eight innings of work. Gausman has never looked all that comfortable pitching for the Braves this season, posting an ERA just shy of six to go along with a 1.45 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-02-19 | White Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The White Sox offense has been dormant lately but I do like them to bounce back against Jason Vargas and the Phillies on Friday night. Vargas will of course be making his first start with his new club. While he had pitched better than expected for the Mets this season I'm not sure he's going to be the savior in the Phils rotation. He's become comfortable pitching in the National League but here will have to face an American League club in his debut with Philadelphia. Ivan Nova will counter for Chicago. He's coming off back-to-back solid outings but prior to that had been lit up for 10 earned runs over a two-start stretch. I'm not expecting Nova to find much success against a Phillies lineup that has produced at least seven runs in three of their last five games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-31-19 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Tampa Bay and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The over has now cashed in five straight games involving the Red Sox and I expect more of the same on another hot and humid night at Fenway Park on Wednesday. There’s no reason to downgrade either offense with Andrew Kittredge starting for the Rays and Rick Porcello going for the Sox. Porcello is coming off a fine outing but has been largely inconsistent this season, posting a 5.55 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’ll have his work cut out against a Rays offense that has racked up 25 runs over their last three contests. Meanwhile Boston is averaging 10 runs per game over its last five. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-30-19 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 10 | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on another hot and humid evening in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Tyler Beede will take the ball for the Giants. He has labored through the season to be sure, with an ERA approaching five overall and closer to six on the road. His road starts have averaged a total of nearly 11 runs. Journeyman lefty Drew Smyly will counter for Philadelphia. He was sharp in his first start with Philadelphia, but that came against the struggling Pirates. Before coming over he had given up 12 earned runs on 14 hits over 6 1/3 innings of work in his last two starts with the Rangers. The 'under' went 5-2 in seven meetings between these two clubs last season but as the relatively high total indicates, I believe we'll see a different story unfold on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers didn't exactly take care of business to open this homestand, dropping two of three games against the Reds. They did, however, salvage the finale of that series and I look for them to notch another victory on Friday night against the Cubs. Chicago travels from San Francisco, where it dropped two of three games as well. The Cubs are a miserable 19-29 on the road this season. Kyle Hendricks is a losing pitcher on a winning team, having gone 7-8 with a 3.41 ERA this season. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Note that Chicago is giving Hendricks just north of two runs per game when he takes the ball on the road this season. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Milwaukee. He returned from a 'dead arm' to throw four somewhat effective innings against Arizona last time out. In 10 1/3 innings pitched at Miller Park this season he has recorded a terrific 0.87 WHIP. Also note that Gonzalez turned in one of his best outings of the season against the Cubs, pitching 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball back in May. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. After a wild, high-scoring series against the Yankees which was almost certainly aided by the hot and humid weather in Minnesota, I fully expect the scoring to settle down as the Twins head to Chicago to take on the White Sox. You would have to go all the way back to May 18th to find the last time Twins starter Jose Berrios gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Since then, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of 10 outings. He has also given up three earned runs or less in five straight starts against Chicago, allowing exactly one earned run in three of those outings. Lucas Giolito is quietly putting together a tremendous campaign for the White Sox. His starts are averaging just over 7.3 total runs. Giolito's three career home starts against Minnesota have totaled 5, 3 and 7 runs. With four of the White Sox last five contests totaling six runs or less, I'm looking for another low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday afternoon as the Cards and Pirates close out their four-game series. While St. Louis did bust out offensively last night, it's worth noting that they had scored a grand total of 15 runs over their previous four contests. The Pirates remain in an offensive lull. Entering last night's game they hadn't plated more than five runs in a game since July 7th. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He owns miserable numbers on the road this season, with an ERA north of seven. However, he has actually pitched well in two of his last three outings away from home and has posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He has allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings of work against the Pirates this season. Mikolas has given up two earned runs or less in six of eight career starts against the Buccos. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has posted a solid 1.08 WHIP over his last three outings and a 1.13 WHIP at home this season. He tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the hot-hitting Phillies last time out. Musgrove hasn't fared well against the Cardinals over the course of his career but in his lone home start against them he tossed seven shutout innings. Conditions should favor the pitchers on Thursday with relatively low humidity in the ballpark. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this series, with their pitching really letting them down, allowing 20 runs in those two losses. I believe the price is reasonable to back the Brewers to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin started the season a perfect 2-0 but has gone a miserable 1-10 since. He got rocked in his last start in Arizona but has actually pitched well here at home recently, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts at Miller Park, covering a span of 10 innings. Lucas Sims will counter for the Reds. He has posted solid numbers this season but we're talking about a very small sample size as he has worked just 9 2/3 innings. The Brewers do continue to perform well offensively, having plated 54 runs over their last eight games, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
07-24-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. Motivation will be high for the Rays to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Red Sox at home on Wednesday afternoon. I like their chances to do just that with Charlie Morton on the hill. Morton has quietly put together an 11-3 record and ever since his ERA dipped below 3.00 back on April 27th against these same Red Sox, it has never surpassed that number again, currently standing at 2.61. Red Sox starter David Price has been solid as well, although his numbers don't match those of Morton. I do get the sense that Price is going through a bit of a lull, failing to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts. Last time out he gave up six earned runs in a loss in Baltimore. The Rays entered this game with a two-game edge over the Red Sox but that has disappeared. Look for them to salvage the final game of the series on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
07-23-19 | Cubs v. Giants +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem paying the tariff to back the Giants plus an insurance run as they continue their series with the Cubs on Tuesday night. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the Giants are now 13-1 over their last 14 games and 24-5 over their last 29 games going back to June 20th. We have a terrific pitching matchup on tap tonight with Yu Darvish going for the Cubs against Madison Bumgarner of the Giants. I do feel that Bumgarner has a bit of a motivational edge here as he tries to help the Giants into the Wild Card hunt while also potentially auditioning for other teams prior to the trade deadline. Behind Bumgarner is one of the best bullpens in the league. With San Francisco suddenly heating up at the dish as well, I'm willing to back them even off a win in the opener of this series last night. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -132 | 14-6 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're laying a reasonable number with the Brewers here, largely due to the solid numbers Tanner Roark has posted for the Reds this season. With that being said, we faded Roark in his last start and were rewarded with a 7-4 Cardinals win, even though he did hold his own for five innings before the bullpen coughed it up. Roark has now been tagged for at least one home run in each of his last five starts, giving up a grand total of nine dingers over that stretch. Kyle Davies will counter for Milwaukee. He brings excellent form to the table, having allowed just two earned runs on 17 hits over 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts. Davies didn't fare well the last time he faced the Reds back in May but did keep them at bay in his first start against them, and the Brew Crew have still managed to win both of this starts versus Cincinnati this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
07-22-19 | Marlins v. White Sox -110 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The White Sox aren't being given much respect by the oddsmakers here and it's largely due to the presence of Ivan Nova on the mound. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. With that being said, despite his ERA north of seven, the Sox have still managed to go an even 4-4 when he takes the ball at home this season. It's also worth noting that Nova has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last nine outings. Trevor Richards is an 11-game loser for the Marlins and you would have to go back five starts to find the last time he worked into the sixth inning. The Marlins last victory with Richards on the hill came way back on June 2nd in San Diego. Chicago did lose yesterday's series finale against the Rays, but still managed to win that series. Meanwhile, the Marlins have to travel all the way from Los Angeles where they were swept by the Dodgers. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins +112 | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Twins as they look to build off the momentum from yesterday's win, which salvaged a four-game split against the A's. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He has shown a pretty strong home-road dichotomy, posting an ERA well north of five on the road. The Twins are one of the best teams in baseball and can obviously score with anyone, even the Yankees. Fresh off yesterday's eight-run outburst I do look for them to get to Sabathia here. Martin Perez has cooled somewhat following his red hot start to the season but he checks in having worked at least six innings in three straight starts and will be looking to earn his ninth victory of the season. It's worth noting that the Twins actually lead the league in slugging, OPS and home runs and sit second in team batting average. The Yankees rank no higher than fourth in any of those categories. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
07-21-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the Brewers and D'Backs wrap up their four-game series on Sunday afternoon. Brandon Woodruff will take the ball for Milwaukee. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last seven starts. Woodruff has allowed only three earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. He actually pitched here once last season, giving up just one hit and two earned runs over five innings. Alex Young counters for the D'Backs. He has been extremely efficient, needing fewer than 80 pitches while working at least five innings in each of his first three starts. Young has allowed just six hits and two earned runs over those three outings, covering a span of 16 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a wild, high-scoring slugfest last night but I look for a different story to play out on Saturday. While the first two games in this series have gone 'over' the total, the Cards and Reds have actually both trended to the 'under' this season. Miles Mikolas owns some awful road numbers this season but he has actually held his own in two career starts here in Cincinnati, allowing four earned runs over 12 innings. Luis Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and has been particularly sharp here at home, where he has posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The 'under' is 7-3 in his 10 home starts, with those games averaging just over seven total runs. He has allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings in his last three outings against St. Louis. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-19-19 | Marlins +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I can't ignore the value being offered with the underdog Marlins here as they catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot. While Miami is 22 games under .500 on the season, it has actually gone a respectable 26-27 over its last 53 games. The Marlins are coming off a series with over the Padres while the Dodgers return home after a roller-coaster series in Philadelphia that saw a total of 57 runs scored. Marlins starter Zac Gallen has had an up and down start to his big league career but comes in off five days' rest and has fared alright in two previous road starts, allowing three earned runs while posting an 8:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over seven innings of work (the Marlins split those two games winning in St. Louis but losing in Washington). Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter for Los Angeles. He has obviously been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and checks in sporting a perfect 9-0 team record here at Dodger Stadium. Ryu owns a 2-1 team record in three career starts against the Marlins, however he hasn't faced them since 2017 and prior to that his other two outings against them came way back in 2013. I simply feel the Dodgers could be in for a bit of a letdown off back-to-back series' three time zones away in Boston and Philadelphia and the price doesn't properly reflect probability in this particular situation. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
07-19-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 7-10 | Win | 120 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Milwaukee at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Brewers took the opening game of this series last night, cooling off the D'Backs previously red hot bats in the process. I do look for Arizona to bounce back on Friday, however, as they look to tee off on Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin. The Brewers have won just five times in 17 games with Chacin on the hill this season. He has posted a 6.38 ERA on the road and to make matters worse, the Brew Crew have given him just over two runs per start to work with on the highway. D'Backs starter Taylor Clarke hasn't impressed by any means. In fact, he also owns an ERA north of six at home. With that being said, Arizona has managed to go just one game under .500 in his nine starts this season and the Snakes are giving him an incredible seven runs of support to work with per start. Milwaukee has won three games in a row but remains five games under .500 on the road this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
Service | Profit |
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William Burns | $599 |
Matt Fargo | $421 |
Ray Monohan | $400 |
Rocky Atkinson | $333 |
Jim Feist | $292 |
Kyle Hunter | $280 |
Ross Benjamin | $265 |
Marc Lawrence | $253 |
ProSportsPicks | $211 |
AAA Sports | $78 |