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10* OVER Xavier/Villanova (BIG EAST TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring contests of late, but in our opinion everything finally points to more of a wide-open offensive battle between these Big East rivals. Xaiver is 7-6 overall, while Villanova is 9-4. The Musketeers have gone 3-1 in their last four and they've seen the total go "under" in three straight after their most recent 74-54 win over Seton Hall, but note that the Musketeers have in fact seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Villanova is 3-2 SU in its last five, but it's seen the total go "under" in five straight after its most recent 84-48 win at DePaul, but that's significant to note for a couple of reasons, as the Wildcats have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS road conference road win in which they held their opponent to 49 or fewer points in and also in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. We base our picks on many different things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by very strong trends in our opinion; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER North Alabama/Texas Tech.

Here's a great "situational" play. We're fully expecting Texas Tech to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas as it plays its final "tune-up" game before the conference schedule. The Red Raiders are 10-2 overall and 7-0 at home. Texas Tech enters on a five game unbeaten streak, but that is in fact significant to note here, as the Red Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after five or more straight SU victories in a row. North Alabama is 6-7, including a terrible 1-6 on the road. It's coming off back-to-back losses, failing to top 68 points in either game. We have a hard time seeing the offensively-challenged Lions even reaching 60 in this one though vs. this difficult Red Raiders' defense; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Washington/Utah (PAC TOY)

Washington enters 8-4 overall and 0-1 in Pac 12 action, while Utah is 10-2 and 1-0. Washington lost its conference opener by a score of 73-69, and clearly it won't be happy about that sub-par offensive performance. Note though that the Huskies do have a notable 78-73 win over Gonzaga this year already. Utah destroyed Washington State by 22 points in its conference opener and we're expecting it to push the pace here as well in this potentially difficult matchup. The bottom line here though is that each team really likes to push the ball, as each ranks in the Top 100 in adjusted tempo. Each also has multiple double-digit scoring forwards. For all the reasons listed above, look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Kent/Saint Mary's (NON-CONF TOY)

We're anticipating a much more defensive battle between these two teams than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Kent is a big underdog here, but it won't be rolling over. The Golden Flashes are 7-4 overall, including 1-1 in true road games, while the Gaels are 8-6 overall, including 6-3 at home. Kent has seen the total go "over" in five straight now, but that's important for us to take note of as the Golden Flashes have in fact seen the total go "under" in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Saint Mary's five-game win streak came to an end in a 69-64 loss to Missouri State as a 13.5-point favorite, and that's also significant to note as the Gaels have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. This number is a little high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Oakland/Cleveland State (Horizon League TOM)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games coming into this conference contest, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair, as the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this total ultimately staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done in our opinion. Oakland is 6-7 and Cleveland State is 8-5. The Grizzlies are just 3-4 on the road, while the Vikings are 7-0 at home. Oakland has seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that the Grizzlies have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Cleveland State has also seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that the Vikings have seen the total go "under" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports 

10* UNDER Iowa/Purdue (BIG TEN TOM)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but we're expecting a much more defensive affair here on Monday. Iowa is 5-2 and Purdue is 7-1. Purdue is coming off its first loss of the year in a 92-88 loss in OT vs. Northwestern on Friday and we're expecting it to be a bit fatigued here, and to double down defensively. The Hawkeyes are off the high-scoring 103-78 win over North Florida, but with the home side looking to control the pace of this one after the loss last time out, everything points to this being much more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe with this large total; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Utah Valley/UAB (OVER).

This is the semi-finals of the NIT. Utah Valley got by Cincinnati 74-68 on Wednesday to advance. Utah Valley's strength is its depth, as it has four players averaging double figures in scoring. Overall it averages 76.9 PPG. The Blazers reached this point by beating Vanderbilt. UAB plays at an even faster pace though and averages 81.4 PPG. These teams have been playing to lower-scoring games throughout the playoffs, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points lower than it normally would/should be; they play is indeed on the OVER.

AAA Sports

10* OVER Creighton/SDSU (TOP TOTAL)

I am going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. SDSUN is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS so far in the postseason this year. With the big upset win over Alabama, the Aztecs have also seen the total go "under" in six straight. This fact though has only helped in pushing this Elite 8 total a few points lower than it should be in my opinion. Creighton exploded for an 86-75 win and cover over Princeton in its last outing, and the Bluejays have now posted 171 combined points over their last two games. I expect a faster-paced affair here finally; this number is low, the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER UConn/Gonzaga (ELITE 8 TOY)

I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring affairs, but I believe this Elite 8 game finally sets up as more of a defensive one. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. In fact, this is the highest total that has been attached to a UConn game since January 25th at Xavier. UConn doesn't play at a fast pace either, ranked 211st in tempo. Both teams have plenty of big men and I'm expecting plenty of "half-court sets" while on offense. When you take all of these factors into account, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER FAU/Tennessee (SWEET 16 TOY)

Two really good defensive teams here that play at methodical paces, but I still think this O/U line is way too low. FAU is 33-3 this year, including 11-3 on the road. After playing to four straight post-season "unders," the Owls finally played to an "over" in their Round of 32 win over FDU by a score of 78-70. I think FAU keeps the offensive momentum rolling here. The 70 points allowed though is a concern if you're an Owls bettor though. Tennessee has seen the first two games of its tournament go "under" the number, including in its 65-52 victory over Duke last time out, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. With a few days off to rest between rounds, expect these offenses to benefit; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Fairleigh Dickinson/FAU (ULTIMATE)

FAU is now 32-3, and it's a 13.5-point favorite in this one. Fairleigh Dickinson finished 21-15. Over its past ten games FAU has averaged 2.3 points more per game than its season average. Note that together these two teams combined for 156 points per game, which is at least five points higher than this total. I'm finally expecting a faster-paced game and because of that, the play is the "over"!  

AAA Sports 

10* OVER MSU/Marquette (ASSASSIN)

I am going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the College Basketball Tournaments. Michigan State averages 70.6 PPG, while allowing 67.4. Marquette averages 81 PPG, while allowing 71.3. Expect fatigue to play a key part in breaking down the defensive play for each side, and expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Furman/SDSU (2ND ROUND TOY)

I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis during the NCAA tournament. Furman I think rides its thrilling upset of No. 4 seed Virginia here. SDSU enters off the 63-57 win over COC. Furman's offense is ranked 88th overall and 32nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Aztecs strength is their defense (ranked 16th overall), but that fact has only helped in driving this particular total a few points lower than it normally would/should be, as note that SDSU has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in nine straight dating back to the regular season. That's just too many "unders" here, and the value has firmly swung the other way here in the second round of the NCAA Tournament; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER South Carolina Upstate/Indiana State.

South Carolina Upstate is 16-15, while Indiana State is 22-12. The Sycamores average 79.4 PPG, but the Spartans are allowing just 69.6. The Spartans average only 68.9 PPG, while the Sycamores concede just 69.3. These teams are evenly matched, but I expect this contest to have a "feeling out" period at the start, and because of that, I think this O/U line is too high; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

9* UNDER SE Missouri State/Texas A&M CC (POWER TOTAL)

These teams meet at the UD Arena. SE Missouri State is lucky to be here. It finished 19-16 this year. It beat Lindenwood, Tennessee State and Morehead State in the conference tourney, and then on March 4th it beat Tennessee Tech in the championship game by a score of 89-82 in OT. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? Texas A&M CC finished a more respectable 21-10 in the regular season. The Islanders secured the 75-71 win over Northwestern State in the Southland Tourney Title game. Previous to that they held McNeese State to just 63 points. I think the Redhawks come back down to Earth here in the "bright lights." Look for this game to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports 

10* OVER Texas A&M/Alabama (SEC TOURNEY TOY)

The Aggies are coming off an 87-75 win over Vanderbilt to advance to the SEC Tournament Championship Game. Overall Texas A&M averages 73.1 PPG, while allowing 65.4. Alabama has seen the first two games of its tournament run go "under" the number, including in its most recent 72-61 victory over Missouri. The Tide gave up just 29 first half points. They average 82.8 PPG< while allowing 69.5. We have two really good defenses here, but with Alabama pushing the pace from the start, I'm expecting this faster-pace to result in a higher-scoring affair, especially if the Aggies are forced to play from behind early. Either way, I expect the Championship game to sail "over" the posted number as the game comes down the stretch!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Texas/Kansas (BIG 12 TOURNEY TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in their Tournament games to reach this point, but that fact has only helped in driving this total a few points higher that it normally would/should be. Texas has now seen the total go "under" in five straight after wins over Oklahoma State and TCU to advance. Note though that Texas has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Texas beat Kansas 75-59 in the final regular season game of the year, and that's also important to take note of here, as the Jayhawks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponet. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Fordham/Dayton (A-10 TOM)

For a number of different reasons, I look for this one to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Fordham advanced by beating La Salle 69-61 on Thursday. The total went "under" the number in that one, but I'm expecting a shootout here. The Rams actually play with revenge after falling 82-58 to Dayton on January 10th at home as a 7.5 point underdog, and that's significant to note here, because the Rams have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss against an opponent. The Flyers have now seen the total go "under" the number in three straight aftre their 60-54 first round win over St. Joe's. Note though that Dayton has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The stage is set for an efficient, higher-scoring "over" in the rematch!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Ohio/Toledo (MAC TOURNEY TOY)

No need to overthink this one for me. I love the way this one sets up to be a bit more of a defensive affair. Ohio is coming of a 90-70 win over Ball State to advance to the second round of the MAC Tournament and while the total went "over" the number, we can expect more of a defensive affair here. Ohio does play with revenge after falling 90-75 to Toledo on January 17th, but I don't see the Bobcats getting that many points again here. Toledo crushed Miami Ohio 91-75 yesterday and its now seen the total go "over" the number in five straight. That's significant for us to take note of though, as Toledo has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Expect fatigue to also play a factor here; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Temple/Cincinnati (AAC TOURNEY TOY)

It's the opener of the AAC Tournament, and while these teams played to a higher-scoring "over" in their most recent matchup, I believe that everything points to a much more defensive affair here now that the Conference Tournament is here. Temple finished l6-15, while Cincinnati was 20-11. The Owls fell 88-83 in OT to the Bearcats as nine-point dogs on the road in February. That's significant to note here because Temple has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU conference loss vs. an opponent. Cincinnati saw eight of its final nine regular season games go "over" the number, but that fact has only helped in driving this tournament total a few points higher than it normally would/should be. With the Owls looking to slow the tempo of this one down throughout, I believe the rematch here definitely points to a more defensive battle this time around; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER CSU/SDSU (MW TOURNEY TOY)

No need to overthink this one. This is a great situational play. Colorado State is just 14-17. It's coming off a hard-fouth 67-65 win over Fresno State last night to advance here to the second round, the total went "under" the number in that one. SDSU was 24-6 in the regular season and received a first round bye. It comes in having seen the total go "under" the number in five straight. Note though that the Aztecs have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. CSU plays with revenge after a 77-58 loss to SDSU on the road in ate February and while that total went "under" the number as well, everything finally points to a more of a wide-open "shootout" here now that the conference tournament is here; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Minnesota/Nebraska (BIG TEN TOURNEY TOY)

Both teams have played to several higher-scoring games to close out the regular season, but that fact has only helped in driving this Tournament total a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Minnesota stumbled down the stretch, finishing 8-21 overal. It saw the total go "over" the number in seven straight games to close out the regular season. It lost both games to Nebraska this season, and each contest went "over" the number as well. Note though that the Gophers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge two straight losses against a conference opponent. Nebraska finished 16-15. It won five of its last six games. It also saw the total go "over" the number in seven straight games to close out the year. With a couple days off to prepare for the conference tournament, I expect each team to focus a bit more on the defensive end this evening; this total is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Wake/Syracuse (ACC TOURNEY TOY) 

These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect a more wide-open and faster-paced affair here on Wednesday afternoon, and because of that I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Wake stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, losing four of its last five. The Demon Deacons lost 72-63 at Syracuse as a one-point favorite on March 4th, the final game of the year. Wake has seen the total go "under" the number in three straight, but note that the Demon Deacons have seen the total go "over" in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The Deacons have also seen the total go "over" the number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponet. Syracuse broke a four-game slide in the win over Wake Forest. Previous to that the Orange had seen the total go "over" the number in four straight. While that last game went "under" between these teams, expect a more efficient, faster-paced contest here in the Conference Tournament to lead to a higher-scoring final combined score; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Marist/Manhattan (MAAC TOURNEY TOY)

I love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. Marist comes into the Tournament off B2B losses to end the year. It also saw the total go "over" the number in three straight to end the season, which is significant to note, as the Red Foxes have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after seeing the total go "over" in three or more straight contests. Manhattan though plays with revenge after an 81-58 setback to Marist at home as a four point dog on February 24th. The total in that one snuck "over" the number, but I'm expecting a much more defensive battle here, as note that the Jaspers have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. Two teams that underachieved in the regular season are out for redemption in the Conference Tournament and all signs (in my opinion), point to a defensive battle; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* Under Loyola Chicago/St. Joe's (A-10 TOURNEY TOY)

These two teams ended the regular season playing to several higher-scoring games, and they also played to a high-scoring one between each other over that span, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive affair here now that the Conference Tournament is here. Loyola Chicago finished 10-20. It won its finaly game of the regular eason, 76-73 over La Salle. The Ramblers saw the total go "over" the number in three straight to end the season, and that's significant to note, as Loyola Chicago has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Ramblers play with revenge as well after falling 83-71 to ST. Joe's as a 3.5-point favorite at home on February 8th. But once again, that's important for us to note as the Ramblers have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Saint Joseph's finished 14-16. It saw the total go "over" the number in five straight to end the regular season, which is noteworthy as well, as the Hawks have seen the total go "under" in six of their last eight after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. The situation and the numbers all point to the "under" as the correct call in this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER San Fran/Gonzaga (WEST-COAST TOURNEY TOY)

Everyone is just hammering the over for the most part here, but I'm going the other way, as I see tremendous value on this being more of a lower-scoring defensive battle. San Fran has already had to get through two rounds to get to this point, beating Pacific 80-63 and then Santa Clara 93-87 in OT. The Dons play with revenge after falling 99-81 to the Bulldogs back in February. And as for Gonzaga, will rest lead to rust here after getting a "double bye?" I think it will. After having seen the total go "over" the number in eight straight games to end the season, I believe this Tournament total is now a few points higher than it normally would/should be; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Chattanooga/Wofford (SOUTHERN TOY)

Chattanooga has won the first two rounds to advance here to face Wofford in the Southern Tournament. While the Mocs both won and covered in each, both of those contests went well "over" the number. Now with tthe stiff competition here, I'm expecting a much more defensive affair finally. Wofford got by UNCG 67-66 yesterday in a lower-scoring defensive battle, and that's what Im predicting here as well. While their last game against each other in the regular season went "over" the number, expect the rematch here in the conference tournament to be tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER North Dakota/Denver (SUMMIT TOURNEY TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late and the last time these teams got together the total flew "over" the posted number, but now finally here in the conference Tournament, I expect a more defensive battle. North Dakota comes into the Tournament at 12-19. It went 2-1 in its final three games, but it's seen the total go "over" in three straight. That's significant to note here though for us because the Fighting Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. North Dakota beat Denver by a score of 86-63 as a three-point favorite on February 9th and the total went "over" the number of 146. The Pioneers finished 15-16. Note that they've seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponent. Look for this neutral site contest to finally produce more of a defensive affair as well; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Wagner/Sacred Heart.

These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but now that the conference tournament is here, I'm expecting each to push the pace, as I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Wagner has seen the total go "under" in four straight. It's coming in off B2B victories. It plays with revenge though after a 65-56 loss to Sacred Heart on Feburay 2nd, and that's important for us to take note of here, as the Seahawks have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a conference loss against an opponent in which they were held to 59 or less points in. The Pioneers enter the tourney having seen the total go "under" in three straight, and that's significant to note here as wel, as Sacred Heart has seen the total go "over" in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is now too low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Belmont/Northern Iowa (MISSOURI VALLEY TOW)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in one against each other earlier in the year, but I expect those trends to finally end here this evening. Belmont is 20-10, but just 6-7 on the road, while Northern Iowa is 13-16 overall, but 8-7 at home. The Bruins beat the Panthers by a score of 76-72 in mid-January, and thats significant to note here, because Northern Iowa has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss against an opponent. Look for a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring battle in this one; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Xavier/Seton Hall (BIG EAST TOY)

I love the way this end of season matchup sets up to be more of a competitive defensive affair, rather than a high-scoring "shootout." Xavier is 20-8, but just a pedestrian 5-4 on the road, while Seton Hall is 16-12, but a much more respectable 10-4 in front of the home town crowd. The Pirates play with revenge after a 73-70 loss at Xavier as eight-point underdogs on December 20th, which is significant to note, as Seton Hall has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU road loss against an opponent. Xavier is No. 15 in the country, but it'll be desperate to turn things around before the start of the conference tournament, having lost three of its last four, including a tight 64-63 setback to Villanova as a 4.5-point favorite last time out. I have every reason to believe that this will be a faster-paced "shootout," rather than a "clamp-down" defensive affair; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* Mississippi Valley State/Prairie View A&M UNDER (SWAC TOY)

The last time these teams played against each other, it ended up being a lower-scoring defensive affair, and for a number of different reasons, that's exactly what I'm expecting in the rematch in this one as well. Prairie View has now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight ater an 82-71 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff in its last outing. Note though that the Panthers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Mississippi Valley State has seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight now after its 80-62 loss at Texas Southern in its last outing. The Delta Devils also play with revenge here after the 67-60 loss to Prairie View A&M back on January 7th. However, note that the Delta Devils have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a conference home loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Niagara/Marist (MAAC TOY)

These teams played to a higher-scoring game earlier in the season, but I expect the rematch to be a tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring contest. Marist won by a score of 66-64 as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 15th. The total snuck "over" the number of 123.5 in that one. Note though that Niagara has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Purple Eagles only average 65 PPG, while conceding just 58. Marist averages only 62.3 PPG, while allowing 66.7. I don't expect either team to reach its seasonal offensive average in the re-match today, so the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Lafayette/Army (PATRIOT LEAGUE TOY)

This one checks all the boxes to be a lower-scoring "under" in the end. Lafayette and Army have already played once this year, and the Lafayette Leopards got killed 82-65 back on January 2nd as a one-point favorite. The total went "over" the number of 133.5 in that one, but note that Lafayette has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite against an opponent. Lafayette is just 9-19 overall, including only 4-13 on the road though. The Army Black Knights are coming in off back-to-back losses. They've been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over their last six outings, and I expect this pattern to continue here after a 93-86 loss at Colgate in their last outing. I look for the home side to slow this one down, and as a result, everything points to this one staying "under" the number!

AAA Sports

10* Florida/Arkansas UNDER (SEC TOY)

The regular season is amazingly winding down. FLorida is 14-12 overall this season, including just 3-5 on the road. Arkansas is ranked No. 25 in the country at 17-9 overall and 11-2 at home. Florida only averages 71.8 PPG, while allowing just 66.9. Arkansas isn't the highest scoring team either, averaging 73.8 PPG, while alloiwng just 65.6. Arkansas is of B2B SU/ATS losses. It beat Florida 82-74 last season, but while I'm anticipating another highly competitive battle this time, I'm definitely expecting a much lower-scoring final outcome. Florida has seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, but we can expect this end of season conference battle to go well under the number; and that's the play, play on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER EMU/Kent (MAC TOW)

This one sets up really well to be higher-scoring game from a few different situational stand points. Eastern Michigan is just 6-20, including l2-10 on the road. It has no chance here whatsoever. The Eagles actually average a healthy 73.5 points per game, but they've been downright terrible on the defensive end in conceding 81.7 PPG. Kent averages 75.2 and I look for the 21-5 Golden Flashes to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Kent only allows 63.9 points per game, but in what I expect to be a really wide-open and faster-paced affair, I am or sure looking for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. And that's how I envision this game unfolding. Look for Kent to have zero mercy here as it runs up the score, taking advantage of home court as the season starts to wind down; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* FAU/MTSU UNDER (CONF. USA TOY)

I base my picks on many different things, but I don't follow any single handicapping methodology and ultimately I feel that being flexible with my approach is the best way to secure profits over the short, mid and long-term. With that in mind, this particular play really sets up well from two different angles, from a situtational angle, but it also has some key ATS trends backing it. FAU is 24-2 and rolling towards the conference tournament. The Owls average 78 PPG, while allowing just 65.5. MTSU has now seen the total go "over" the number in six straight, and that's important to note here, as the Blue Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in ten of their last 13 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. MTSU also plays with revenge here after an 85-67 loss at FAU in January, which is also important to note, as the Blue Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss against an opponent. Expect MTSU to keep the pressure on FAU, but for that to ultimately translate into a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Wichita State/Temple (AAC TOM)

This one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle from a situational stand point. These are two teams in dire need of a victory here. Wichita State is 13-12, including 5-3 on the road, while Temple is 14-12, including 7-6 at home. The Shockers have played to ten straight "overs," and I believe that fact has now pushed tonight's Over/Under line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Off a tight 91-89 OT win over SMU, I'm expecting a much slower-pace finally here from the Shockers. Temple has seen the total go "over" in five straight, while also losing three in a row, but SU and ATS. Note though that the Owls have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 afte rplaying to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Each team has taken a step back this year, but look for this highly competitive affair to finally produce a lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* UNDER UC Irvine/UC Santa Barbara (BIG WEST TOM)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. When these teams played in January, the total also went "over" the number in the Gauchos 73-65 victory at the Anteaters. Note though that UC Irvine has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite to an opponent. UC Santa Barbara has now seen the total go "over" the number in six straight games, but that's also significant for us to note, as the Gauchos have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. UC Irvine has actually been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones over its last six games, and coming off an 83-64 win over UC Riverside, I expect this pattern to continue here. Two really good teams, but expect this competitive atmosphere to produce a very tight, and ultimately lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* UNDER SIU/Valpo (BLOOD-BATH)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. SIU has seen the total go "over" in three straight (note though that the Salukis have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row.) iThe last was an 82-59 loss at Drake. SIU is 19-8, but it only averages 66.4 PPG, ranked among the best on the defensive end in many statistical categories. SIU beat Valpo 77-55 at home back on January 30th and the total went "over" the number of 123.5 in that one. However, today's total is much higher, and it's now a little too high in my opinion. Valpo has also seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER WVU/Baylor (TOW)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here in what I anticpate will be a competitive, but ultimlately lower-scoring defensive battle. WVU is just 2-6 on the road. It's coming off a 94-60 loss at Texas. I think the Mountaineers will struggle to score here on the road as well in this difficult venue. Note as well that WVU has seen the total to "over" the number in five straight, which is indeed signifciant to note, as the Mountaineers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Baylor is 12-2 a thome. It comes in off three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. They're coming off a 72-68 win at TCU and I expect another strong defensive performance here as well at home; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Washington/Washington State (PAC 12 TOY)

This one sets up really well to be a very defensive affair. Washington is 13-12 overall this year, but just 1-7 on the road. Washington State is only 10-15 this season, but it's 7-3 at home. An interesting matchup, but one that screams defensive battle to me. Washington has lost three straight, and that's important to note here, because the Huskies have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after three or more straight losses in a row. Washington State has lost two straight on the road. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, and that's also significant for us to note here, as the Cougars have seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Washington State averages 67.4 PPG, while Washington averages only 69.7. Expect a tight, lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Kent/Buffalo (MAC TOM)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here on Friday. Kent is 19-5, but is just 6-5 on the road. Buffalo is only 12-12, but it's a much more respectable 9-3 at home. Kent averages 75.1 PPG, while Buffalo averages 80.2. The last time these teams played though, Kent controlled the action in the 74-68 victory in late January, the total staying well "under" the posted number of 151.5. Expect a similar, lower-scoring defensive battle here as well; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Texas Tech/Oklahoma State.

I like the way this one sets up to be a defensive battle. Texas Tech is 2-1 in its last three, but it's coming off an 89-62 loss at Baylor. The Red Raiders have seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, but note that they've seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Oklahoma State has won three straight, but SU and ATS. Most recently it was a 79-73 victory over TCU. The Cowboys have now seen the total go "over" in four straight. This is the first meeting of the year between these schools, but last March when they faced off, Oklahoma State won by a score of 52-51. The overall situation, combined with the above listed trends make the "under" the correct call in this one!

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10* OVER JMU/ODU (SUN BELT TOM)

James Madison is 15-8, while ODU is 13-9. These are two teams in need of a victory here, and I expect this competitive like atmosphere to produce a much higher final combined score than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. James Madison actually averages 82.9 PPG, and it has seven players averaging between 7.9 and 13 PPG. ODU averages 67.5, but after playing to seven straight "unders," I feel this O/U line is now just a bit too low for the home side, as note that the Monarchs have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Illinois Chicago/Illinois State.

A couple of 9-14 bottom feeders collide here in the Missouri Valley Conference on Wednesday night and in my opinion, I expect points to be at a premium. Each side has played to several higher-scoring games of late, but we can expect those trends to end here. The Flames only average 67 PPG, while allowing 70.7. They catch a break here today on the defensive end facing Illinois State, which averages just 66.2 PPG, while allowing 68.6. When these teams faced off back on December 28th, it was UIC which came away with the 55-51 win as a one-point favorite. Look for these hungry and evenly matched teams to play to a similar, lower-scoring "under" here as well!

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10* UNDER Northwestern/Iowa (BIG TEN TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much more defensive affair this evening. Both teams have done decently to this point. Northwestern is 15-5, while Iowa is 13-8. The Wildcats enter on a three-game win skein. Most recently they beat Minnesota by a score of 81-61. I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well, as Northwestern only averages 69.8 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.8 percent, ranked 45th. So expect the visitors to slow this one down at all costs. Iowa averages 81.3 PPG, but it's been trading high-scoring "overs" with low-scoring "unders" over its last six games, and off a 93-82 home win over Rutgers last time out, all signs point to this pattern continuing. Expect a more methodical pace here; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER IUPUI/Cleveland State (HORIZON LEAGUE TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. IUPUI is just 3-19 after its latest 81-75 loss at Purdue Fort Wayne. It only averages 63.1 PPG, but somehow it's seen the total go "over" in four straight. Note though that IUPUI has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. It plays with revenge here after an 89-54 loss at home to Cleveland State two weeks ago. The Vikings are 13-9 after a 79-74 win over Purdue Fort Wayne. Despite that victory, note though that Cleveland State still only averages just 70 PPG. I'm expecting a much more defensive affair here in the rematch; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER CSU Bakersfield/Hawaii (BIG WEST TOY)

Two teams on different ends of the spectrum. CSU Bakersfield is 6-13, and Hawaii is 15-6. The Roadrunners are off a 79-58 home loss to UC Davis, and I think they'll struggle to reach that many points here on the road. Note that they average 58.3 PPG. Hawaii only averages 68. The Warriors are coming off a tight 65-64 home loss to UC Santa Barbara. These two teams play at a couple of the slowest paces in the nation. The fact of the matter is that the Roadrunners haven't posted more than 58 points in six straight games. Expect a slower-paced defensive affair, one that falls well "under" the number once the final buzzer sounds!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Manhattan/Niagara (ASSASSIN)

I like the way this one sets up to be an offensive contest. Each team has been playing to several "unders" of late, but that's only now helped in contributing to this O/U line being a few points lower than it normally would/should be. When these teams played on January 8th, Manhattan upset Niagara by a score of 64-59 as a 3.5-point underdog. The total in that contest stayed "under" the postd number of 128, but note that Niagara has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite against an opponent. Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, and then expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Arkansas State/USM (SUN BELT TOY)

All signs point to this being a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arkansas State is coming off seven straight SU losses. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, including in its 87-78 OT home loss to Marshall. Note though that Arkansas State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Southern Miss has played to four straight "overs," but it still only averages 75.9 PPG, ranked 80th. Look for the conference leader to clamp down defensively and control the tempo of this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Wichita State/SMU (AAC TOY)

The bottom line here for this one, is that both teams are struggling to score right now, and their defensive metrics far outweigh their offensive numbers. Wichita State's top player only averages 12 PPG. But the Shockers like to play at a slow pace, ranked 304th in pace out of 363 teams in the country. SMU's tempo is only ranked 143rd. SMU will look to utilize its size on offense. That means running the offense through the big men, and that means setting up a lot of "half court sets" while on offense. When you add it all up, this number is indeed high; the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Toledo/Buffalo (MAC TOW)

Toledo is 12-6, while Buffalo is 9-9. That includes though going a near-perfect 8-1 at home. The Rockets are coming off a 90-75 win over Ohio in their latest contest, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here on the road. The Rockets weakness comes on defense where they're allowing an average of 78.6 PPG. But that defense catches a break here facing a Bulls' offense that averages 79.9 PPG. The Bulls are coming off a blowout win as well, smashing Bowling Green 100-71. Both teams play at incredibly fast paces, but the school that plays the best defense is going to be the one that comes out on top here. These are two really good offenses, and poor defenses, and this is also a really high total. I see enough things "going wrong" to keep this total well "under" the number; and that's the play!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Portland State/Weber State (BIG SKY TOY)

For a number of different reasons, I think this total is low. Both teams enter hungry for a win here at 8-10. Portland State will be particularly eager to return to action after a tight 69-67 home loss to Northern Colorado as a five-point favorite (note though that Portland State has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was the favorite and in which it was held to 69 or fewer points in.) Portland State does average 77.7 PPG though. Weber State will have to match pace here, as it comes in averaging 66.1 PPG. It's seen the total go "under" in four straight, but that's only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points lower than it normally would/should be. When these teams played last year, Portland State won by a score of 81-75. I predict a similar final combined score here as well; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Oregon/Cal (PAC 12 TOM)

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this evening in what I anticipate will be a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring defensive affair. Oregon is 10-8, but just 1-2 on the road. Cla is only 3-15 and just 3-8 at home. Oregon has seen the total go "over" in two straight games, including an 87-68 home victory over Arizona as a four-point underdog. Despite that though, the Ducks still only average 69.6 PPG. After that emotional upset victory, I predict some regression here. Cal averages only 61.8 PPG. It's now lost two straight, falling 66-51 at WSU, and 81-78 in OT at Washington last time out. I have a hard time seeing either side reaching its seasonal offensive average; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Saint Louis/Loyola Chicago (TOTAL BOB)

The Saint Louis Billikens are 12-6 and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are 6-11 and I'm expecting a very defensive affair. The Billikens come to town injured, with several key players sidelined. They'are also just 2-3 on the road. Saint Louis averages 76.6 PPG, while the the Ramblers average only 67.6. Loyola Chicago is coming off an 86-55 loss at Saint Joseph's, and I expect an even smaller final combined score in this contest. Look for a much tigher, and ultimatley lower-scoring battle here, the play is indeed on the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* Houston/Tulane UNDER (AAC TOW)

The Cougars are 17-1, but I still think they'll want to body up on Tulane here and turn it into more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Most recently they're coming off an 83-77 win over USF at home. The Green Wave are 12-5, and they're off a 77-69 home win over UCF. Houston is very average offensively with 75.9 PPG, ranked 96th, but their defense is ranked No. 1 overall, conceding just 52.9 PPG. Tulane is averaging 81.9 PPG, while allowing 73.8. Suffice it to say, the Wave have yet to face a defense like Houston's. With the visiting side playing full and half court pressure throughout this contest, I'm expecting the total to say "under" the number!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Marist/Niagara (MAAC TOM)

For a number of different reasons, I think this will be a very defensive affair. Marist is just 6-9 this year, iincluding 2-4 on the road. The Foxes are off B2B wins though, most recently winning 76-58 at Canisius as 3.5-point underdogs. I say a predictable letdown is in order here; note that they still only average 63.3 PPG. The Purple Aces average slightly more at 65 PPG. I think they'll struggle to hit that average here today though. They've lost their last two games, falling 64-59 to Manhattan and 70-64 to Siena. They failed to reach their seasonal average in either of those contests either. Look for these two hungry teams to battle tough, and expect this total to stay well "under" the number once the final horn blares!

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VCU/Dayton UNDER (A-10 TOY)

This total isn't the largest one obviously, but it's still much too high in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number. VCU is 12-5, but just 1-3 on the road. The Rams average 71.1 PPG, while the Flyers average 68.5. Dayton is 12-5, including 9-0 at home so far. These teams are two of the best in the conference in most defensive categories. They matchup well against each other. This is a difficult spread to get a read on, but as far as the total is concerned, I'm expecting an absolute war from start to finish, with plenty of half and full court pressures throughout. Look for this highly-competitive affair to produce a lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* WMU/Toledo UNDER (MAC TOY)

WMU is 4-10, while Toledo is 9-5. The Rockets have won the MAC regular season title in each of the last two seasons, but this year's version seems a step behind. Note that both teams are still looking for its first conference win of the season. The Broncos only average 68.6 PPG, so the last thing they can do here is turn this into a "shootout" and expect to hang with the Rockets. WMU is terrible on the road, 0-7 so far. The Rockets come in somewhat complacent after winning 11 straight in this series. Toledo is averaging 84.9 PPG this year, but it won't need to run up the score here to win and control this contest from the ouset. The Rockets are actually off a poor 90-83 loss to Ball State here at home, so I expect them to double down defensively. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Washington/Gonzaga (NON-CONF TOW)

When these teams battled in 2019, Gonzaga walked away with the 83-76 victory. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Washington is 7-2 after a 73-63 win over Colorado in its last outing. Overall the Huskies are averaging 70.1 PPG, while allowing 63.9. Keion Brooks leads the nightly charge with an average of 16.6 PPG. The Huskies will have to bring their "A" game to face the 6-3 Bulldogs. Gonzaga is averaging a whopping 80.2 PPG this year, but its defense has taken a step back, as it's conceding 74.1. Finally note, the "over" is 5-1 in Washington's last six games following a straight-up win. I expect a faster-paced affair here, one that flies well "over" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER (TOM)

Villanova is going to have to hit some three-balls today if it wants to beat the Jayhawks. Miami struggled from range in the second half of its Elite 8 matchup vs. Kansas, and the Jayhawks would then pull away for the 76-50 victory (Hurricanes finished just 3 of 21 from range.) The Wildcats can shoot threes and they're one of the best free throw shooting team's in the country as well. Villanova did lose the services of Justin Moore to a torn Achilles tendon in the win over Houston. Villanova can't afford to get into a half-court battle with this efficient Kansas team. I'm expecting this one to be a bit more "wide open" and faster-paced than what this O/U line is suggesting; the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (BOB)

Two really good defensive teams battle for the NIT Championship tonight, but I think that public perception has helped driving this total a few points lower than it should be. The Musketeers enter off an 84-77 win over St. Bonaventure to advance, while Texas A&M beat Washington State by a score of 72-56. Xavier is going to have to push the pace from start to finish here to try and take the Aggies out of their comfort zone. The Musketeers average 74.1 PPG. A&M averages 72.7 PPG. I believe each team will exceed its offensive seasonal average today. Yes, this is a big game, but I believe that'll translate into an efficent, wide-open contest, rather than a suffocating defensive one; this number is a little low, the play is the over!

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10* OVER (NIT SEMI-FINAL TOY)

Washington State is 22-14 after beating BYU by a score of 77-58 to advance to the semi-finals of the NIT. Michael Flowers led the way in the win with 27 points, 5 assists and 3 steals. Texas A&M advanced to this point by beating Wake Forest by a score of 67-52. Wade Taylor was a standout in that victory with 12 points. Both teams enter on top form. If they had just gotten hot like this a couple of weeks earlier in the regular season, each could have been playing in The Big Dance instead of the NIT. Either way, I expect a faster pace here and I look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER (SWEET 16 TOY)

I think that public perception has driven this O/U line a few points lower than it normally would be. And that's because Iowa State has seen the total go "under" the number in its last five Tournament Games (conference and NCAA), while Miami Florida has also seen the total go "under" in both of its NCAA Tournament games. Yes, these team's successes are based around their tough-nosed defensive play, but here's a case where each will be pushing the pace on the offensive end. Look for each side to exceed it's seasonal offensive average; the play is the over!

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10* UNDER (1st RND TOY)

With these larger 5-game reports, I'll keep my analysis much more "succinct" than I normally do. In what I predict will be a very tight battle, the correct call as far as the total is concered is definitely the "under" in my opinion. Davidson is the No. 10 seed and Michigan State is No. 7. These teams have plenty of experience on both sides of the ball and each is coached extremely well. Davidson averages 75.8 PPG, while MSU averages 72.1. Suffice it to say, I don't expect either to hit their seasonal offensive average here. Expect this evenly matched contest to turn into a very low-scoring defensive battle; the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (ASSASSIN)

This is going to be an interesting battle, but it's one that I anticipate will fly well "over" the number before the final buzzer sounds! Texas Southern is a good rebounding team, but it's turnover prone. Texas A&M CC forces a TON of steals, so the Tigers are going to be forced to push the pace here to keep up. Texas A&M CC ranks 65th in the country at 75% from the free throw line, so the underdog could in fact have an edge if Texas Southern isn't careful. The best way for the Tigers to avoid this scenario though will be to take an early lead and keep the pressure on; in what I expect to a fast-paced affair, the play is the "over" as far as the total is concerned in my opinion!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

Two really good teams collide here, and I expect this competitive affair to produce a very defensive contest, rather than a high-scoring offensive one. USC beat Washington by a score of 65-61 to advance to this game, while UCLA beat Washington State by a score of 75-65. The Bruins have seen the total fly "over" in three straight, but that does in fact work in our favor here as UCLA has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last ten after playing to 3 or more straight "overs" in a row. When these teams met in the final regular season game, UCLA won 75-68 and the total snuck "over" the posted number, but we can expect this conference tournament game to be much more intense defensively; the play is the under!

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10* UNDER (SPECIAL)

Two really good teams collide here. Offensive or defensive affair? In my opinion, everything is pointing towards this being a very tight, and lower-scoring game. NKU is 19-11, while Purdue Fort Wayne is 21-10. The Norse though aren't blowing teams out of the water to win games, as they average only 70.1 PPG. Instead its a suffocating defense that will be taksed to slow down the Mastadons, who enter averaging just 74.6 PPG. The Norse won 59-49 on January 28th, and I believe we'll see a similar lower-scoring defesive war here as well; this number is high, the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (ASSASSIN)

This is the final regular season game for both teams. MTSU is 22-8, but only 5-8 on the road, while ODU is only 12-17 overall, but a very respectable 9-4 at home. The Monarchs play with revenge after falling 63-48 to MTSU on February 10th. And that's significant to note for us here for sure, as ODU has seen the total so "over" the number in 9 of its last 12 in trying to revenge a conference road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 55 or less points in. MTSU has seen the total go under in 3 straight, but it's seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 10 after playing to 3 or more straight "unders" in a row. Considering all of the above information, I say the total in the "rematch" this afternoon is now just a little bit TOO low; the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (ASSASSIN)

The A-10 Conference still has two games to go before its Tournament starts. Saint Louis is 19-10 overall, but just 4-6 on the road. It's coming off a tight 68-66 loss to Richmond. It does average 77.7 PPG though, which ranks 36th in the country. It beat URI 67-60 last year, but I expect a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Rhode Island snapped a 3-game slide with a 70-54 win over Duquesne last time out. It's seen the total go "under" in 4 straight (but note, the Rams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 7 of their last 10 after playing to 3 or more straight "unders" in a row.) It's a big game at the end of the season and I expect a faster-paced affair; this number is low, the play is the over!

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10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

Bethune-Cookman and Grambling State are stumbling towards the finish line. With little to play for here, I expect another sloppy overall affair, one that falls "under" the number. The Wildcats enter on a 3-game losing streak. They're off an 87-84 OT loss to Southern. Off that heart-wrenching setback, I can't see how the visiting side will muster much energy for tonight's game vs. 11-16 Grambling State. The Tigers are off a 79-73 defeat to Florida A&M on Saturday. The main issue for both teams this year though has been because of their poor offenses, as Bethune-Cookman averages 62.8 PPG, while Grambling State averages 65.8. Both team's strength lies on the defensive end. Look for a this one to fall well "under" before the final seconds tick off the clock!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (SWAC TOY)

Two really poor teams here. I can't see at all where the motivation will come from. Alabama State is just 6-20 overall, including only 2-14 on the road, while Bethune-Cookman is 7-19 overall and 4-5 at home this season. The Hornets only average 67.7 PPG, while the Wildcats average just 61.3. The Wildcats play with revenge here after falling 79-73 at Alabama State in mid-January. While that game went well "over" the posted number of 133, we can expect a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring contest this time around, between two teams just playing out the tail ends of their disastrous seasons. Finally, note that Alabama A&M has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in 8 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home conference home loss against an opponent as the favorite. This number is high, the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

These are two teams in dire need of a win, and because of that I anticipate a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Terps are just 11-14 and they've lost 5 straight. The Huskers are just 7-18 this year, with just 1 conference victory. Maryland is coming off a heart-breaking 62-61 loss to No. 3 Purdue as well, so I have a hard time seeing where this team will find its focus or energy on the road. Thankfully, the Terps don't have to worry about Nebraska's pathetic offense. Both teams average in the low 70's and I don't expect either to hit their offensive seasonal averages. This one will be a sloppy, and ultimately lower-scoring defensive war; the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (SUN BELT TOM)

When I bet on "overs," I like betting on motivated teams. The Georgia Southern Eagles fall under that category, as they're now just 11-12 this season, including 4-8 in league play after 3 straight losses. Georgia Southern will host this exact game on Saturday. Georgia State enters on the other end of the spectrum, as it's won 3 in a row. The Eagles are out to snap their slide, and the Panthers will aim to kick their opponent while its down. Why is this total SO incredibly low? Because both teams struggle offensively. Georgia Southern though has seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 after 3 or more SU losses in a row. I say Georgia State keeps the pressure on from start to finish, forcing the visitors to match pace; in what I expect to be a faster-paced game, look for this one to fly well over the number before the final horn sounds!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (SEC TOM)

Two teams in need of a victory collide in this one, and I'm expecting a very defensive battle. South Carolina is 14-10 this season (3-5 on the road), while Ole Miss is 12-13 (10-5 at home.)

The Gamecocks though average only 71.4 PPG. Ole Miss averages even less at 67.9. These teams pride themselves on their aggressive defensive play. This is the only matchup of the year between the schools. In their last matchup on March 11th, Ole Miss won 76-59 as a 7-point fav. That total stayed under the posted number of 140.5. I expect an even tigther, and ultimately lower-scoring game this time though; the official call is on the under!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (EXPRESS)

UVA may be 16-9 overall, but it's just 4-5 on the road. VT is only 15-10 this season, but it's 9-3 at home. Neither team scores a lot of points, and each is among the best in the nation on the defensive side. That's why this total is so low. VT plays with revenge here though after a 54-52 setback at UVA back in mid January. The total in that contest was set 116.5, and it still stayed well below the number. VT though averages 70.9 PPG and it's seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a conference road loss to an opponent in which it was held to 55 or less points in; with the home side pushing the pace in its revenge bid, I believe the visitors, who average 63.4 PPG, will finally be forced out of their comfort zone defensively; expect this total to fly "over" the number before the final buzzer blares!

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10* OVER (OVC TOY)

Southeast Missouri State is 11-14 overall. It's 6-6 in conference action. It'll have its hands full today with uptempo Belmont. The Bruins are 21-5 and 11-2 in league play. Belmont is the only team that Southeast Missouri State has never beaten in the conference, going 0-11 all-time in this series. BU has won 10 of the 11 matchups by double digits. That includes all 5 games at the Show Me Center. The Redhawks though enter on top form for this season, as they've won 5 of their last 8. Most recently it was a 76-47 win over SIU Edwardsville. That's significant to note as the Redhawks have seen the total go "over" in 7 of their last 9 off a SU/ATS win in which they held their opponent to 50 points or less in. Expect this faster-paced "shootout" to fly over the number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over!

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10* OVER WSU/Cal (TOW)

The 9-14 Cal Bears will look for a win here against the visiting 13-7 Washington State Cougars. These teams don't score a lot of points most nights, but I think this particular contest will be much more wide open than what this O/U line is suggesting. Tonight's total is extra low because when these two met in mid-January, the Cougars defeated the Bears by a score of 65-57. Note that Cal has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 7 of its last 8 in trying to revenge a conference road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 59 or fewer points in. Expect these two opponents to open things up and look for this total to fly well OVER the number!

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10* OVER (MAULING)

Providence is 8-1 in Big East action. Most recently it's coming off a 65-63 win over No. 22 Marquette on January 30th. Previous to that the Friars beat Xavier 65-62. Keep your eyes on Justin Minaya, who played all 80 minutes in those 2 victories. St. John's though has won 9 straight at home, where it averages 88.0 PPG on 58 percent shooting. Posh Alexander led the way last time out with 19 points. The over hit the last time these teams played in January and I expect another high-scoring shootout as well here. The over has hit in 7 of the last 9 in this series on this floor; expect that trend to continue tonight!

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10* OVER (MAAC TOY)

The 6-6 Saint Peters' Peacocks enter on top form, having won 3 straight. Most recently it was a 65-57 win over Canisius. Isiah Dasher led the Peacocks with 17 points and 2 rebounds. The Niagara Purple Eagles are 8-8, but they've been playing well as well, with 5 straight wins. Most recently it was a 72-63 win over Manhattan. Noah Thomasson led the way with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. Both teams have been playing to lots of low-scoring games, but I expect this competitive contest to be a shootout. Each team has been great of late, so expect that to translate into offensive production today; the play is the over!

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10* UNDER (SUNBELT TOY)

I think this one sets up really nicely from a situational standpoint. Most of my Over/Under releases I base upon strong "situations," and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Arkansas Little Rock struggles to score at the best of times, but after nearly a two-week COVID hiatus, I firmly believe the Trojans will have a very slow start to this game offensively. Instead, I expect the home side to double down on the defensive end here against the Texas State Bobcats. To say this is a revenge game for the Bobcats would be an understatement, as ALRU has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, including all 4 games last year. Texas State rallied to beat UL Lafayette 72-68 last time out, but it's seen the total go under the number in 7 of its last 11 after an ATS home loss to a conference opponent. For all the reasons listed here, my official call on the total is definitely on the under!

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10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF MONTH Under Indiana/Nebraska

The Hoosiers will be eager to return to their winning ways today after an 83-74 loss to Iowa last time out. Indiana has just one win on the road though. If Indiana is going to win this game, it won't be because of its offense. The Hoosiers average only 74.9 points per game, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 62.2. That defense catches a break here today as well, as Nebraska is only averaging 73.4 PPG, while allowing 79.2. Off a loss and on the road, we can expect Indiana to double down on its efforts on the defensive end; a great situational play on the under! 

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10* UNDER (SEC TOY)

I'm expecting a defensive affair in this one. Mississippi State is 10-4, while Georgia is 5-10. The Bulldogs though are looking to rebound here after an 82-72 loss at rival Mississippi this past weekend. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Georgia has lost five of it slast six and it's coming off a 15-point loss at Kentucky. Georgia plays at a slow pace, ranked 121st in the nation by KenPom. Mississippi State though plays to an even slower pace, ranked 316th. Mississippi State's strength is on the offensive side, but it's not going to have to keep the foot on the gas against this offensively challenged Georgia team. The last thing Georgia can do is turn this into a "track-meet," so I'm expecting a slower-pace overall. This number is a tad high, the play is the under!

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10* UNDER (BE TOM)

DePaul is off a 79-64 home loss to Villanova and I think it'll have difficulty on the offensive end again today. Marquette comes in off a 92-64 victory over Georgetown. DePaul has now dropped eight straight ranked games. Marquette is now 2-3 in league action after its latest victory. Note that the 28-point victory that the Golden Eagles had over the Hoyas was their largest-ever winning margin on the road in BIG EAST regular season play. Suffice it to say, I expect a bit of regression here. The under has gone 7-1 in the Blue Demons last eight games following a double-digit loss as well. Expect a slower-pace, and ultimately a lower-scoring contest.

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10* SUMMIT TOTAL OF YEAR on the under Nebraska Omaha/Oral Roberts.

The 2-11 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks are on the road to take on the 8-6 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and in my opinion, we're going to witness a much more defensive affair than what this line is suggesting. The Mavericks snapped their 11-game slide with an 84-78 win over the Western Illinois Leathernecks last time out. Omaha averages just 64.9 PPG this year, while allowing 80.3. Oral Roberts is averaging 80.9 PPG, while conceding just 68.1. The Eagles are off an 83-66 win over Denver in their last game. I think the Mavericks though will have a predictable letdown here after their win in their last game. Oral Roberts doesn't need to run up the score here to win this game, just control it. When the smoke clears, expect this total to say under the number.

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This is an 8* on OVER

St. Bonaventure and Virginia Tech take the floor Friday for an afternoon tipoff in the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. The Bonnies are 8-2 while Va Tech is 7-4. But despite the superior won-loss record, St. Bonaventure is the underdog in this game. They are just 3-6 ATS, including 0-5 L5 games. While perhaps not all that trustworthy plus the points, the Bonnies have been doing plenty of scoring of late. They’ve averaged 77.8 points in those last five contests, even after being held to just 64 in a loss to UConn last Saturday. That loss to UConn saw them shoot a season-low 38.7% from the field. That was after shooting a season-high 60% in a win over Loyola MD in the previous game. Kyle Lofton, the Bonnies’ leading scorer and part of an all-senior starting lineup, has missed the last three games. But he returned to practice on Monday. Va Tech, like St. Bonaventure, rates in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency. The Hokies have also had their struggles recently, dropping four of their last six games. They too shot it poorly last time out. We’re quite confident that St. Bonaventure, who is 9-2-1 Over off their previous 12 losses, will score a solid number of points today. The total is low and Va Tech is 7-3-1 Over L11 neutral site games. We see this going Over. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Xavier comes into tonight ranked #25 in the country and has a 9-1 SU record. Their only loss was to an Iowa State team that’s still undefeated. Since that loss, the Musketeers have not just won - but also covered - five straight games. The most impressive win took place on Saturday when they smoked rival Cincinnati 83-63. We had the Over in that game and will play this game the same way. This time the Musketeers are hosting Morehead State. The Eagles are 6-4 on the year after losing 82-75 at East Tenn State on Saturday. While they may rank first among Ohio Valley Conference teams in scoring defense, slowing down Xavier should be a tougher challenge. The Musketeers have averaged 83.5 points their last four games. Assuming Xavier, at the very least, hits its season average of 75.8 points per game, then all we would need from Morehead State is 62 points, which is below their season average. Asking two teams to hit their season average in points per game doesn’t seem like asking for “too much.” If it happens, then we’ve easily got our Over, a bet which has hit 11 of the previous 16 games where Xavier has been off an ATS win.

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This is a 10* on OVER

We’ve got what looks to be a heck of a showdown in College Basketball on Sunday as #2 Baylor takes on #6 Villanova in the headliner of the Big 12-Big East Battle. Baylor, last year’s National Champs, is still undefeated at 9-0. They average 84 points/game. The schedule hasn’t all been all that challenging up to this point, but the Bears have scored at least 75 in every game except the one vs. Virginia Commonwealth. They put up a season-high 99 last time out. Villanova happens to be off its season-low point total as they could only manage 67 in a win over Syracuse earlier in the week. But the Wildcats, who are 7-2 on the season, are averaging 78.2 per game. Look for these two national powers to play a high-scoring game on Sunday, much higher scoring than their meeting in the Sweet 16 last March when they combined to go 6 of 36 from three-point range. The Over is 14-4 in Baylor’s last 18 games in Waco. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

City rivals Cincinnati and Xavier renew acquaintances on Saturday evening. Cincinnati is 7-2 with their losses coming to Arkansas and Monmouth. There’s no reason for the Bearcats to hang their heads over losing to Arkansas, the #12 ranked team in the country, on a neutral court. The loss to Monmouth was a little more embarrassing, though it came by only two points and Monmouth has the best ATS record in the country right now. But what matters most to fans of Cincy basketball is their recent futility against Xavier. They’ve lost seven of the last ten matchups and are 0-5 ATS here at Xavier. The Musketeers bring an 8-1 SU record into Saturday. Their only loss was to undefeated Iowa State. Expect bad blood and lots of scoring Saturday night. Xavier just went for 96 points in its last game, a total beatdown of Ball State. The Over is 4-0 the previous four times the Musketeers have been off a win that was by more than 20 points. This total seems low for two teams that average more than 70 points/game. Part of that is the last six Cincinnati games have all stayed Under. But the last five all had totals higher than this one. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

This is the second tough game in a row for Iowa as they begin the Big 10 portion of the schedule. They lost to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now, 77-70 on Friday. But the Hawkeyes managed to keep it close despite not having leading scorer Keegan Murray (24.6 points/game), who sat because of a bad ankle. Murray, the nation’s second leading scorer, is expected to be back in the lineup tonight as the Hawkeyes host Illinois. Having Murray back and getting this game in Iowa City should result in Iowa scoring at a rate similar to what we saw from them in their first six games of the season. Even after facing Virginia and Purdue on the road, the Hawkeyes are still averaging 91.0 points/game. That’s third most in the country. At home, they average 97.2 points/game! We can’t say they’ll score that many tonight, but they will score enough to get this one Over the total. Defensively, the Hawkeyes aren’t great, which is a problem facing Illinois when Kofi Cockburn is in the lineup. Cockburn is right behind Murray, averaging 24.0 point/game. He’s missed some games, but the Fighting Illini still are averaging 76.7 points/game and have topped that number in each of their last three games, scoring 94, 82 and 86. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

It’s a battle of 7-0 teams in the Big 10 Friday. Iowa and Purdue both handled their business in the Big 10/ACC Championship Game earlier this week. Iowa beat Virginia 75-74 while Purdue crushed Florida State 93-65. What may make this a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes is they are just 98th in defensive efficiency. Purdue, who is the home team here, ranks 1st in the country in offensive efficiency. But not far behind them is tonight’s visitor, who is 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency (a measure of how many points a team scores per possession). So expect this to be a high-scoring affair Friday night in West Lafayette. The 75 points that Iowa scored in the last game was a season-low, if you can believe it. With the team they beat (Virginia) playing at the slowest tempo in the country, it makes sense that the Hawkeyes scored a season-low. But they average 94.0 points/game and Purdue plays at a much more reasonable tempo. The Boilermakers also average 92.4 points/game. The oddsmakers can’t make this total high enough, in our eyes. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on UNDER

The Big Ten drew first blood last night against the ACC, taking both games in this annual “Challenge.” The event really kicks into “high gear” on Tuesday with six games, including one featuring the Big Ten’s “best,” that being #2 ranked Purdue. The Boilermakers are 6-0 and host a Florida State team that is 5-1 with a couple of close wins. One of those close wins took place last Wednesday when the Seminoles needed overtime to scrape by Boston U 81-80 as 17.5 point favorites. Purdue has covered the number four straight times, including neutral court wins over North Carolina and Villanova. So this looks to be a challenge for FSU. We don’t like the idea of laying points though. What we do like is the Under. Florida State is going to be without three players, two of them starters - PG Evans and C Ngom. The Boilermakers are holding opponents to 56.5 points on 34.3% shooting here in West Lafayette. But the Seminoles also are holding teams to 38.5% shooting and 63 points/game. That last score (the one vs. Boston U) is misleading because the game went into OT. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is today’s first tip in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, which takes place down in the Bahamas. We’ve got two programs accustomed to success. After going 26-5 last season and making it to the Sweet 16, Loyola Chicago is off to a 4-0 start. The Ramblers have won all four of those games by double digits, but it’s a step up in competition today as they face Michigan State, who has posted three straight double digit wins for Tom Izzo (following a season opening loss to Kansas). While former coach Porter Moser is now in Oklahoma, Loyola has most of its key players back from last year’s run to the Sweet 16 - save for Cameron Krutwig - and remains an elite defensive team. What we are expecting here though is for the Ramblers to cool off from three-point range. So far, they have shot 45.2% from behind the arc. That’s simply not going to continue. Michigan State is a top three defensive team in the country right now, allowing just 35.2% shooting overall. The Spartans' size is likely to cause problems for the Loyola shooters. After four straight Overs to start the year, the Ramblers are going to stay Under in this one in what should be a tight, defensive-minded affair. The Under is 5-1 in MSU’s last six games as a dog. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Taking the Over the last time UCLA faced Gonzaga worked out pretty well. Now we obviously remember that game went to overtime. But the Over was already “in the bag” by the end of regulation with the game tied 81-81. Despite losing three starters from a team that went 31-1 (only loss in the National Championship Game), Gonzaga is averaging 93.2 points/game so far this year and just hit triple digits (107) last night against Central Michigan. The fewest points scored by the Bulldogs in any game this season is 84. UCLA is averaging 90.8 points through its first five games. Last night against Bellarmine they scored a season-low 75 as they were 8 of 27 on three-pointers and made just one free throw the entire game. Not only are these the two top teams in the country, both rank in the top ten in scoring nationally (Gonzaga #2, UCLA #8). It should be another high scoring game from these two as the Over is 23-8 when Gonzaga is off a straight up win by more than 20 points (they won by 53 on Monday). Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Robert Morris is still looking for its first win of the season. The Colonials are 0-2 with the losses coming to UCF and Kentucky. It’s definitely not a surprise that they are winless. RMU was getting 16 against UCF (covered) and then 23 against Kentucky. They’ve only scored 59.5 points/game, but did just give up 100 to UK on Thursday. Ohio is 2-0 with wins over Belmont and Cleveland State. The Bobcats put up 92 in the opener before turning in a solid effort at the defensive end vs. CSU, holding the Vikings to 56 points on 38% shooting. Opening the season with three straight road games where you’re a double digit underdog is tough. That’s the situation RMU faces here. We are unsure if they can get the cash like they did vs. UCF, but do expect this to be the Colonials' highest scoring game of the season so far. They’ve shot poorly in each of the first two games, particularly from three-point range where they are at just 24.4 percent. You’ve got to think that number will improve. Ohio shouldn’t have any issues scoring in this game either as they face a team that just gave up 100 points. The Over is 20-8 in RMU’s last 28 games and 10-3 in Ohio’s last 13 home games. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

Georgia State opened its season with a very easy 97-37 victory over a non-DI school (Brewton Parker). Northeastern wasn’t as fortunate on Tuesday as they lost 65-58 to Colgate. The Huskies also just missed out on covering the spread as they were 6.5-point underdogs. It was not a solid night at the offensive end as they made only 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 14 from three. Northeastern did earn a share of the CAA regular season title last season. But they lost their top player to the transfer portal. The good news is that on the defensive end, the Huskies held Colgate to 39.3% shooting. It was a game they could have won as they were up by two at half. Georgia State is not going to score 97 again on Friday as they are facing a “real” opponent for the first time. The Panthers will also give up more than the 37 they allowed in the first game. But don’t expect this game to go Over the total. The Under is 11-4 the last 15 times N’eastern has been a road underdog. In the second game of the year, both teams will struggle to make shots. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

There’s nothing quite like opening the College Basketball season at 12:30 local time on a Thursday. But that’s the case here in Vermillion as South Dakota hosts Air Force. Expect a low scoring affair in this afternoon's tilt. Air Force was bottom five in the country last year in scoring as they averaged only 58.7 points/game. The fact that the service academy has a height restriction makes sense for flying planes but not for playing basketball. There was a really “learning curve” for the Falcons last season as new coach Joe Scott brough the “Princeton offense” to Colorado Springs. The team really didn’t have the personnel to run the offense effectively. Don’t expect a ton of improvement this year. South Dakota lost its two top players from last season’s squad, so they’ll be scrambling at the offensive end as well. Key to the Coyotes’ success last year was shooting 38.9% from three-point range. They aren’t likely to be that prolific again in 2021-22, at least in the early portion of the campaign. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on the OVER

Gonzaga looks unstoppable as they go for the 1st National Championship in program history. They are massive favorites against UCLA Saturday as you just don’t see a double digit spread in the Final Four very often. But it’s the total that has our attention in this National Semifinal. While both teams are 3-1 Under their last four games, this has the potential to be a pretty high-scoring affair. We need not remind you that Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 91.6 points/game. They have scored at least 83 in all four Tournament games. This number will likely end up closing as the third lowest total for any Gonzaga game this season. UCLA being off such a low-scoring game (they beat Michigan 51-49 in the Elite Eight) is a big reason for that. But the Bruins scored plenty in the first four Tourney games (remember they were in the First Four). Yes, two of those games went to OT. But they still hit 65 in regulation in all of them and twice hit 73. Those kinds of numbers are reasonable for tonight and should they get there, this game will easily go Over. Gonzaga likes to play fast and UCLA is 5-1 Over this season when the total is 140 to 149.5. Gonzaga is shooting almost 55% from the field and only one of their last 11 games saw a fewer number of total points than this total. Their games average 160.1 total points. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Much has been made of USC’s defense in this Tournament. The Trojans have allowed 58.3 points per game and none of the three teams they’ve faced have been able to shoot better than 37.7 percent. But none of those teams were Gonzaga. The Bulldogs lead the country in scoring at 91.8 points per game and have scored 98, 87 and 83 in their three Tournament games. They shot almost 60 percent from the field against Creighton in the Sweet 16 win. The only concern here for Gonzaga is that they better shoot well again because USC has also been scoring at a high rate. The last two games have seen the Trojans make 57% of their shots and that includes 21 of 35 on three-pointers! So this should be quite the high scoring game in the Elite 8 as both teams should score at least 80. The Over is 39-17 in Gonzaga’s last 56 games and they are an astronomical 55% overall this year! USC is 6-3 Over after a game where they scored 80 or more points. Gonzaga likes to play fast and as a result, this one goes Over. Play on OVER

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