Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-04-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* UNDER Yanks/Dodgers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. The Yanks have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six after last night's 6-3 victory. Some would have "pushed" on that total last night, but it did close at 8.5, so so far both games here in LA have gone "over" in this series. We're expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. Note that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Domingo German is battle-tested for the Yanks, now 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA and tiny 0.98 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Bobby Miller, who is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and even more impressive 0.91 WHIP. Look for these two "studs" to battle deep and for this total to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done! AAA Sports | |||||||
06-03-23 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Cards/Pirates (PITCHERS DUEL) Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs recently, but we expect those trends to end this afternoon. Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five games. That includes in yesterday's series-opening 7-5 victory here over the Cards. Note though that St. Louis has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Two decent starters going head-to-head here, and we're expecting a "duel:" Jordan Montgomery is 2-6 with a 4.48 ERA for the Cards, while Luis Ortiz 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA for Pittsburgh. Note that despite just a 1-2 record vs. Pittsburgh lifetime, Montgomery does own the sharp 2.95 ERA in that span. The overall situation points to this total staying below this super high number; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
06-02-23 | Guardians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
10* UNDER Guardians/Twins (AL CENTRAL DIV. TOY) Both teams have been playing to higher-scroing games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Cleveland has now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight after falling 7-6 in last night's series opener here. That's significant to note though as Cleveland has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straigth "overs" in a row. Minnesota has seen the total go "over" in three of its last four. The bottom line here though is we really like these starting pitchers and we ultimatley believe they'll be throwing deep into this one: Cleveland goes with Aaaron Civale, who is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA, while Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober, who is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA. The overall situation combined with the above listed ATS O/U stat does indeed make the "under" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion! AAA Sports | |||||||
06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox -153 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
8* Red Sox (BLOOD-BATH) After losing the first two games of this series, we like Chris Sale to outduel his counterpart and for the Red Sox to finally bounce-back in the finale. Note that Boston is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Reds are finally primed for a letdown after five straight victories, as note that Cincinnati is just 2-6 in its last eight after five or more straight wins in a row. Hunter Greene is an unremarkable 1-4 with a 4.18 ERA for the Reds. Sale is 5-2 with a 4.72 ERA for the Red Sox. After a brutal start to the season, Sale has been "on fire" and we expect that progression to continue; lay the price, the play is Boston! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER Yanks/Mariners (BLOOD-BATH) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but we're finally expecting a more defensive "duel" here in the finale. Note that Seattle has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Clarke Scmidt is 2-5 with a 5.58 ERA for the Yanks, while George Kirby is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA for Seattle. We're expecting these starters to battle deep, and as a result, we look for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-30-23 | Guardians v. Orioles -146 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* play on the Orioles. Off yesterday's series opening 5-0 loss, we think that Kyle Gibson and the home side offer great value at this price to "bounce back." Note that Baltimore is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a shutout home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Cleveland is still just 12-14 on the road this year, which doesn't bode well for starter Cal Quantrill, who is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA this season. Gibson is 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA. All things considered, we feel this line could/should in fact be a lot larger; lay the price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-30-23 | Padres v. Marlins -119 | 9-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on the Marlins. The Padres are regressing, and the Marlins are surging and we expect these trends to continue here on Tuesday night. The Marlins swept their series at the Angels and they enter having won four of their last five, while the Padres lost two of three in the Bronx over the weekend. Ryan Weathers is 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA for the Friars, while Sandy Alcantara is 2-5 with a 4.86 ERA for the Fish. Alcantara is 2-1 with a 0.96 ERA in three career starts vs. the Padres, while Weathers is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two career starts vs. the Marlins; lay the price, the play is indeed on Miami! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-30-23 | Rangers v. Tigers +1.5 | 10-6 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
8* play on Tigers runline. We like the Tigers to bounce back off yesterday's series opening 5-0 loss. Note that Detroit is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a loss at home as a dog vs. an opponent. Martin Perez is 6-1 with a 3.83 ERA for the Rangers, while Alex Faedo is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA for the Tigers. Faedo is coming in with a ton of momentum here though off his best start of his career, striking out ten and allowing just two runs with no walks over six innings in the eventual 7-2 win over the White Sox. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Detroit on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-29-23 | Guardians v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
10* OVER Guardians/Orioles (ULTRA TOTAL) These AL foes need wins. Cleveland more so. The Guardians are 23-29, including just 11-14 on the road. They took two off three at home from St. Louis over the weekend. Cleveland though has seen the total go "under" in seven straight games. Baltimore is 34-19 overall and 16-10 at home. The Orioles lost two of three at home to Texas over the weekend, but bounced back in yesterday's 3-2 victory. Baltimore has seen the total go "under" in three of its last four. Tyler Wells is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA for the Orioles, but is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, getting shelled for five runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Yanks. Logan Allen is 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA for the Guardians. He took a loss in his last outing as well, allowing four runs off seven hits vs. the White Sox on Tuesday. We expect these starters to get chased early and we then look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-28-23 | Padres v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 105 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
10* OVER Padres/Yankees (IL TOW) We have two really good starters going head-to-head here, but we feel that this is a case of each being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." The total has gone "under" the number in the first two games of this series, but we're expecting more of a "slug-fest" finally here in the finale. The Yanks have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, which is important to note here as over thes short-term New York has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Yu Darvish is 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA this year for the Padres, while Gerrit Cole is 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA for the Yanks. Each has actually had tremendous success against his opponent today in the past, but as the old saying goes, that was then and this is now. The overall situation points to this one eclipsing the posted number as it comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-27-23 | Giants v. Brewers -110 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (VALUE-PLAY) After back-to-back losses to open this three-game series, we're on the side of the public today, rolling with the Brewers to bounce back in the finale, as ultimatley we feel we're getting supreme line value in this one. Note that despite their two wins here, the Giants are still just 11-14 on the road, and despite two losses here, the Brewers are still 15-11 at home. Note as well that Milwaukee is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. For arguments sakes, we're going to call these starters a "wash." Logan Webb is 3-5 with a 2.91 ERA for the Giants, while Corbin Burnes is 4-4 with a 3.97 ERA for the Brewers. The overall situation, combined with the above listed/relevant trend does indeed make MILWUAKEE the correct call in this one! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-26-23 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* OVER Astros/A's (ASSASSIN) Both of these AL sides have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Houston had won eight straight, before dropping the final two at Milwaukee, losing 6-0 and 4-0. Note though that the Astros have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five off a road shutout loss. The A's have lost eight straight, and they've seen the total go "under" in all eight of those setbacks. That fact though has only helped in driving this series Opening total a little lower than it normally would be in our opinion. Hunter Brown has been decent for the Astros, going 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA. His counterpart though James Kapriellian has been a complete "gas can" this year, going 0-4 with a ballooned 8.68 ERA for the A's; the overall situation, combined with the above strong/relevant O/U trends does indeed make the "under" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-25-23 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
10* UNDER Jays/Rays (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trents to end this afternoon. Toronto has seen the total go "over" in five straight after yesterday's 7-3 beatdown loss. Note though that the Jays have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Tampa Bay has also now played to five straight "overs," which is also significant for us to take note of, as the Rays have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. We call these starters a "wash," and we expect them to battle deep into this one. Alek Manoah is 1-4 with a 5.15 ERA for the Jays, while Zach Eflin is 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA for the Rays; the overall situation, combined with the above strong O/U trends make the "under" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-24-23 | Giants v. Twins -154 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
8* Twins (BLOWOUT) We like the Twins to bounce back after losing the first two games of this series. In fact, Minnesota has lost three straight, which is definitely significant to note as the Twins are 4-1 in their last five after three or more straight losses in a row. As good as Anthony DeSclafani has been for the Giants (3-3, 3.09 ERA), we give the big nod to Joe Ryan (6-1, 2.25 ERA.) All things considered, we believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-23-23 | Red Sox v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* OVER Red Sox/Angels (TOW) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, including in the Angels 2-1 series opening win last night. LA has now seen the total go "under" the number in three straight, which is significant to note, as the Angels have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Boston enters hungry for a win here after seeing the total go "under" in four straight. Simply put, we have no faith in these starting pitchers: Byan Bello is 3-1 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for the Red Sox, while Griffin Canning is 2-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for the Angels. Look for these starters to get chased early and expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-22-23 | Red Sox v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* OVER Red Sox/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Boston has seen the total go "under" in three straight after winning two of three in San Diego over the weekend. Note though that Boston has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The Angels won two of three vs. the Twins at home over the weekend, and the final two games also went "under" the number. Tanner Houck is an unimpressive 3-3 with a 5.48 ERA for the Red Sox. Jamie Barria is 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA for the home side. Houck has been a "gas can" thus far. The sample size is still too small for Barria, who we believe is in the wrong place, at the wrong time; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-21-23 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +1.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
8* Pirates runline (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) While we do feel an outright win is possible, our official call will be to grab the home side on the "runline" option. Great value here paying a mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extra time. Pittsburgh won the opener 13-3, but then fell 4-3 yesterday. Note thought that the Pirates are 3-1 in their last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs an opponent. Merril Kelly is 4-3 with a 2.92 ERA for the D-Backs, but we're calling him a "wash" on the road here with Pirates' starer Roansy Contreras, who is 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA. Each has had success against his opponent in the past, but all signs point to this one being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is Pittsburgh on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -142 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -142 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
10* Jays (BLOOD-BATH) We like Alek Manoah to settle down here finally after a shaky start to the 2023 season and to take full advantage of this favorable starting pitching opponent. Manoah was unbelievable last year, but he's been inconsisent so far to this point, going 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA. Last year he was 7-4 with a 2.43 ERA at home and he's had plenty of success vs. the Orioles in the past. Look for the Jays' ace to finally put together a solid effort here. The Orioles counter with the erratic Grayson Rodriguez, who is 2-1 with a 6.57 ERA after allowing eight runs off nine hits over three innings in a loss to the Angels in his last outing. We're giving a big nod to Manoah, who we feel could/should in fact be a much larger fav; lay the price with confidence, the play is Toronto! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-19-23 | Red Sox v. Padres -135 | 6-1 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
8* Padres (PITCHING MISMATCH) We like Blake Snell and the home side to dig deep here in the opener of this interleague series. San Diego looks to snap a string of poor play which has seen it go just 3-7 in its last ten. That includes two straight one-run losses to the lowly Royals here most recently. Note though that SD is 7-2 in its last nine off a home loss as a -200 favorite or greater. After losing six of its previous seven, the Red Sox come to town off a 2-1 series win at Seattle. James Paxton is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA for the Red Sox, while Blake Snell is 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA for the Friars. This is just Paxton's second start since TJ surgery and we think he'll struggle here. Despite the Padres being just 1-7 in Snell's stars, he has a very respectable 3.54 ERA over his past five starts and he's 7-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 12 career outings vs. Boston. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but we like Snell here in this matchup; the play is San Diego! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-18-23 | Rays v. Mets UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
10* UNDER Rays/Mets (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end here this afternoon. The Mets have now seen the total go "over" the number in four straight after yesterday's 8-7 victory, while the Rays have now seen the total go "over" the posted number in six straight games. Note though that Tampa has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last seven in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Taj Bradley is 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA for the Rays, while Tyler Megill is 4-2 with a 4.02 ERA for the Mets. Look for these two capable starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay "under" the number before it's all said and done! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-17-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Jays RUNLINE (ULTIMATE BLOOD-BATH) We had a play on the Jays yesterday and while that big pick unfortunatley came up short, we're confident that Toronto can bounce back here and avenge the opening two losses of this four-game series. Two really good starters here. Is almost impossible to say anything negative about Yanks' starter Gerritt Cole, who is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. We just feel he's finally in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. He'll be opposed by Chris Bassitt, who is 5-2 with a 3.49 ERA. These guys are a "wash," but note that the Jays are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. We're laying the price here though and grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Toronto on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-17-23 | Pirates +1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
10* Pirates RUNLINE (BLOWOUT) The Pirates were the talk of the league over the first month, but they've come back down to Earth over the last three weeks. Pittsburgh is now just 2-14 in its last 15 after yesterday's 4-0 series opening loss. Note though that Pittsburgh is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a shutout loss against an opponent. Detroit is 19-21, but we expect Eduardo Rodriguez to have his hands full today. The Detroit starter is 4-2 with a 1.57 ERA, while Rich Hill is 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA for Pittsburgh. We don't trust Detroit as such a large favorite, despite it being at home. Look for Hil to match Rodriguez inning for inning and in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the desperate visiting side on the "runline" option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-16-23 | Royals v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* OVER Royals/Padres (ASSASSIN) We had a play on the "over" yesterday, and that unfortunately came up short in the Padres 4-0 victory. The Friars have now seen the total go "under" the number in 12 straight games. That fact though has only helped in driving today's O/U line lower than it normally would be though in our opinion. Note as well that KC has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent. Brady Singer is just 2-4 with a ballooned 7.71 ERA for the Royals. He'll be opposed by Seth Lugo, who is 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA for the Padres. The overall situation, combined with the above strong O/U ATS stat finally make the "over" the correct call here in this Padres game! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-16-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -162 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -162 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
10* Blue Jays (AL EAST GOY) This is the second game of a four-game series North of the border, and it's definitely one that favors the home side in our opinion. The Yankees come into this series 23-19 overall, but a sub-par 7-9 on the road. The Jays are 24-16 overall, and 12-3 at home. Domingo German is 2-3 with a 4.00 ERA after allowing two runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Rays in his last outing. German is only 1-3 at home, but he sports a 3.19 ERA in friendly confines. He's 1-0 on the road, but with a ballooned 5.79 ERA. Kevin Gausman is 2-3 with a 3.38 ERA after scattering three hits over six scoreless innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Phillies in his last outing. Gausman is 2-3 with a 4.09 ERA on the road, but 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two games at home this year. Look for Gausman to be the difference-maker in this one; lay the price, the play is Toronto! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-15-23 | Phillies v. Giants -109 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
10* Giants (BLOOD-BATH) The Phillies had won five in a rw to move to 20-20 and second in the NL East before yesterday's 4-0 loss at Colorado. Now I think Philadelphia will suffer another letdown in the opener of this series in San Fran, vs. a Giants team now desperate for a victory. The Giants have lost three in a row and six of their last eight. San Fran though is 3-1 in its last four after three or more straight losses in a row. The Giants are just 17-23, but we're giving a big nod to Alex Wood (0-0, 2.45 ERA) over his counterpart Bailey Falter (0-6, 5.75.) Look for the "hungrier" home side to deliver and as Bob Barker used to say: "The Price Is Right" for sure as well; the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-15-23 | Royals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* OVER Royals/Padres (IL TOY) The Padres have played to 11 straight "unders", but we're expecting that trend to finally end here in the opener of this IL series. KC has seen the total go "under" in three of its last four. The Royals are coming off a three-game sweep at Milwaukee, but note that KC has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight losses in a row. San Diego comes in desperate as well after five straight losses, but note that SD has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after five or more straight losses in a row. Brad Keller is 3-3 with a 4.31 ERA for the Royals, while Michael Wacha is 3-1 with a 4.82 ERA. Both have benefitted from run support in the early going, as their ERA's are pedestrian at best. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats all add up to make the "over" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-14-23 | Pirates v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
10* OVER Pirates/Orioles (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this afternoon. Pittsburgh has gone just 1-11 in its last 12 games. It's coming off the 2-0 loss yesterday. Note though that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent (and also in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent.) Baltimore has seen the total go "under" in six straight after taking the first two in this series. That fact though has only helped in driving today's total a point or so lower than it normally would/should be in our opinion. Mitch Kller is 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA and has been a lone bright spot for the Bucs during their slide back into mediocrity over the last couple of weeks. But we expect regression here finally. The home side counters with Kyle Gibson, who is 4-2 despite a pedestrian 4.40 ERA. The overall situation, combined with the above strong O/U stats make the "over" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-13-23 | Astros v. White Sox -113 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* White Sox (BLOOD-BATH) Neither team has gotten out to a great start. The Astros are 19-18, while the White Sox are just 13-26. After three straight losses though, including yesterday's series opening 5-1 loss here to Houston last night. we're expecting Dylan Cease and the home side to dig deep here and find a way to post a victory (note that the CWS are 7-2 in their last nine after three or more straight losses in a row.) This is a pitching matchup that favors the home side. Brando Bielak is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA. The sample size is still just too small to drawn any firm conclusions. Cease is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA. Look for Cease to settle down here at home and for Chicago to avenge yesterday's setback; lay the price, the play is the ChiSox! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-13-23 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 8-9 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Rays/Yanks (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this afternoon. New York has now seen the total go "over" the number in five staright after yesterday's 6-5 win. Note though that the Yanks have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. The Rays won the first game by a score of 8-2, but they've seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Shane McClanahan is 7-0 with a 1.76 ERA for the Rays, while Nestor Cortes Jr. is 3-2 with a 4.74 ERA for the Yanks. Look for these two quality starters to battle deep, as all signs point to this total staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-12-23 | Pirates v. Orioles -144 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) The Pirates are a terrible team. They somehow jumped out to an early great start, but that momentum is FAR in the rear-view mirror, as Pittsburgh comes to Baltimore with its tail between its legs after going just 1-9 in its last ten. The Orioles are 24-13 overall and 11-5 at home. They're in the toughest division in MLB. Or at the least the most competitive. Neither Johan Oviedo (2-3, 5.59 ERA) of the Pirates, not Kyle Bradish (1-1, 5.95) of the Orioles has gotten out to a great start, but the home field advantage is definitely working in Bradish's favor here. Recent form plays a big part here, as in his last start Oviedo was shelled for seven runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Jays, while Bradish allowed three runs over five innings in a tough loss to the Braves. This line could/should in fact be a lot larger in our opinion; la the price, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-11-23 | White Sox +102 v. Royals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
10* White Sox (WINNER) The White Sox have been trading wins and losses for eight straight games after yesterday's 9-1 defeat here, and we're expecting this strong patten to continue here in the finale of this four-game set. Note that Chicago is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Despite only being 2-3 with a 4.84 ERA, I give Chicago starter Mike Clevinger a big nod over counterpart Brady Singer, who enters a terrible 2-4 with a ballooned 8.82 ERA. We like Clevinger and the White Sox in this revenge/rebound situation; the play is Chicago! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-10-23 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
10* OVER Rangers/Mariners (BLOOD-BATH) These two starters have been great to open the season, and the first two games of this series have gone "under" the number. But those facts have only helped in driving this particular total now a couple runs lower than it normally would be in our opinion. As previously stated, these starters have been great, but perhaps a little TOO great. Dane Dunning is an unrealistic 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA for the Rangers, while Luis Castillo is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA for the Mariners. However, note that Texas has seen the total go "over" the number in a near-perfect five of its last six in trying to avenge a road shutout loss vs. an opponent; his number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-09-23 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -124 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Phillies (IL GOW) The Jays are playing a lot better these days, but off a 3-0 sweep at Pittsburgh, we think they'll stumble here in the opener of their second straight IL series. The Phillies just broke a six-game slide with a 6-1 win over Boston in their last game, so they won't be lacking motivation here as they start to try and make up ground now after a slow start to the season. Toronto's "ace" Alek Manoah is just 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA, while Aaron Nola is 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA for the Phillies. Look for the hungry home side to keep the foot on the gas here and for Toronto to finally take a small step back; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-08-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -150 | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
8* Mariners (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) We like the surging Mariners to keep surging here on Monday night. Texas just took two of three from the Angels, but we expect the visiting side to have its hands full tonight. The Mariners enter having won six of their last seven, including just taking two of three here at home over the Astros over the weekend. Jon Gray is 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA for the Rangers, while Logan Gilbert is 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA for the Mariners. Note that Gray though is just 1-2 with a 5.53 ERA in five career starts vs. Seattle, while Gilbert is 2-0 with a 2.85 ERA in seven lifetime starts vs. the Rangers; lay the price, the play is Seattle! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-08-23 | Rockies +1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Rockies RUNLINE (NL GOY) At 20-15, Pittsburgh is still No. 1 in the NL Central. The Pirates "quick start" was the talk of the league, but the Pirates are now dealing with injuries to a few key players and they enter the new week and this new series having lost seven in a row. We think this slide of futility is going to continue, at least for another night. The Rockies are just 14-21 and only fifth in the NL West, but they enter playing their best ball of the season thus far, having won six of their last seven, including two of three at the Mets over the week (13-6 win on Sunday.) We feel these starting pitchers are a "wash." Kyle Freeland is 3-3 with a 3.76 ERA for the Rockies, while Mitch Keller is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA for the Pirates. Momentum swings in favor of the Rockies here. Outright win is obviously possible, but the value here lies in laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Colorado on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* OVER Dodgers/Padres (NL WEST TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. LA has seen the total go "under" in the first two games of this series, falling 5-2 in the opener, before yesterday's 2-1 bounce back. SD has now seen the total go "under" in four straight. The Padres though have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to one or fewer runs in. Julio Urias is 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA for the Dodgers, while Joe Musgrove is 1-0 with a 10.80 ERA. Two decent starting pitchers here, both of who are in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. The overall situation, coupled with the strong O/U trend listed above make the "over" the correct call and it represents our NL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-07-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Red Sox/Phillies (TOP TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. The Red Sox have seen the total go "over" the number in six straight. Boston has also won eight straight games. Philadelphia has seen the total go "over" in five straight and the Phillies enter having lost six in a row. Note though that Philly has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Tanner Houck is 3-1 with a 5.34 ERA for Boston, while Taijuan Walker is 2-2 with a 6.91 ERA for the Phillies. Neither will be lacking motivation today. Look for these teams to play to a lower-scoring outcome here today; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-06-23 | Blue Jays -128 v. Pirates | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Jays (BLOOD-BATH) Toronto broke a five-game slide with a 4-0 win yesterday and we expect the Jays now build off that victory with another one here. The Pirates got off to an unbelievable start to the season, but perhaps a little TOO unbelievable. Expect their transition back down to mediocrity to be a swift one. Toronto hands the ball to Jose Berrios, who is 2-3 with a 5.29 ERA, while the home side counters with Johan Oviedo, who is 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA. Pittsburgh has a few key players on the injured list as well now. Berrios is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in two career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Oviedo has faced the Jays once and he held them scoreless over three innings last year, but the Pirates still lost the game 4-0. We think Berrios is the correct call here; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-06-23 | Marlins v. Cubs -167 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
8* Cubs (ROUT) I had a FREE PLAY on Chicago yesterday and I believe that the Cubs can keep the foot on the gas here on Saturday and find a way to deliver in what is another great situational starting pitcher matchup for it. The Marlins go with Brian Hoeing, who is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA, while the Cubs counter with Drew Smyly, who is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA. Smyly has now gone five straight starts allowing two or fewer earned runs and he owns a 2.37 ERA in six lifetime appearances vs. the Fish. This is a big starting pitching mismatch, one SO big, that it makes this a price in which we have no worries in laying; so lay the price, the play is indeed on Chicago! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-05-23 | A's v. Royals -142 | 12-8 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
8* Royals (MISMATCH) Two of the absolute worst teams in the league go head to head here, but this is one that the Royals are going to win in our estimation. The A's have been downright terrible in every facet. Their starting pitcher today Kirk Muller is 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA. The A's have allowed 244 runs, by far the most in baseball. The Royals have only been slightly better, but we're giving a big nod to their starter Brad Keller, who is 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA. Note that the A's bullpen has blown nine of 12 save chances while posting a 6.78 ERA in the process. Look for Keller to take advantage here; lay the price, the play is Kansas City! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Red Sox/Phillies (TOP TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. The Red Sox have won six straight and they've seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six, including four straight. Note though that Boston has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Phillies have lost four straight and they'll be eager to stop the slide obviously. They've also seen the total go "over" the number in three straight. We have plenty of experience on the hill here as Boston hands the ball to Chris Sale, who is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA, while the Phillies counter with Zach Wheeler, who is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA. Wheeler is coming off a gem, going six scoreless and striking out seven in a win over Houston. Sale also turned the corner with his last performance, allowing one run over seven innings in a win over Cleveland. Look for these two to battle deep and as such, look for this total to indeed stay "under" the number! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-04-23 | Brewers -143 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (BLOOD-BATH) At this price, despite being on the road, Wade Miley and the Brewers will be a popular wager today. Typically we are a contrarian service, but enough is enough for the Brewers here today who have lost three straight, including the first two here at Coors. Note though that Milwaukee is 8-2 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. I think the Rockies take a step back here today facing Brewers' ace Wade Miley, who is 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA. He'll be opposed b Connor Seabold, who is 0-0 with a 5.27 ERA. Better hurry to get down on this one before the line moves any higher; the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-04-23 | Mets v. Tigers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNDER Mets/Tigers (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs, but we expect those trends to end this afternoon with two solid starting pitchers going head-to-head in Detroit. The Mets have lost four of their last five, including the first two in this series, as they dropped both games of yesterday's double-header. Both games went "over" the number. Note that the Mets have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Detroit is 3-2 in its last five, and it's seen the total go "over" in four of those contests. Justin Verlander makes his season debut for the Mets after sitting out the first month with a minor injury. He tossed five innings of no-run ball in Double A on Friday as a tune-up. He's ready to go. He'll be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 2-2 with a 2.21 ERA. Look for these starter to be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-03-23 | Cubs -182 v. Nationals | 1-2 | Loss | -182 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
8* Cubs (SPECIAL) Jake Irvin will be making his major league debut tonight for the Nationals: "He's stretched out to about 90 pitches," Nationals manager Davey Martinez said. "So we're going to give him an opportunity to come out here and start for us and see what he does and see where he goes." We say this one favors Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.29 ERA) and the hungry visiting side. Chicago has lost three of his last four starts, so he's a golden opportunity for the Cubs to provide their "ace" with some support finally. Considering the starting pitching talent discrepancy, this line could/should in fact be larger in our opinion; the value here does indeed swing to Chicago! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-03-23 | Mets -152 v. Tigers | 5-6 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Mets (BLOWOUT) Just a complete mismatch on the mound here between these starters in the first game of the double-header. The Mets have had a day off, while the Tigers have had two days off. New York is 16-13 overall and 10-7 on the road, while Detroit is 10-17 overall, including just 5-7 at home. The Mets hand the bal to Joey Lucchesi, who is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA, while the home side counters with Joey Wentz, who is 0-3 with a ballooned 6.45 ERA. Look for New York and Lucchesi to take advantage and set the early tone in this first game; lay the price, the play is indeed on New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-02-23 | Orioles -145 v. Royals | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) We don't mind laying chalk on a road favorite when we believe our "play on" side should/could in fact be a much larger one. And that's the case here for sure. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Wells, who is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA, and he'll be going up against Ryan Yarbrough, who is 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA. At 19-9, the Orioles are out to their best start since 1997. Wells does actually lead the league with a minuscule 0.724 WHIP. He's made two career starts vs. the Royals and won both. The Royals' 7-22 record matches a franchise-worst start of all time. Yarbrough has had success vs. the Orioles in the past, but that was then and this is now. The current form of these starters plays a huge role in the outcome of this contest; the play is on Baltimore! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Dodgers (NL TOW) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. The Phillies come to town having their four-game win streak come to an end last night in a 4-3 setback at Houston. The Phillies are starting to play a lot better, despite having some key sluggers out still. They've seen the total go "under" in four straight though. LA has seen the total go "under" in two straight. The Dodgers lost two of three to the Pirates, before then bouncing back with a three-game home sweep of the Cardinals over the weekend. LA has seen the total go "under" in two straight. Tony Gonsolin is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Dodgers. He sprained his ankle in spring training. He worked his first 3 1/3 innings, holding the Pirates scoreless last week. Clearly a much tougher task here today though. Taijuan Walker is a big dog here on the road, he's 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA so far for the Phillies. Overall he's 3-3 with a 4.32 ERA in 11 career starts vs. LA. Regardless, we don't trust either starter to go deep. Everything finally points to a higher-scoring affair; the play is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-30-23 | Phillies v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Astros (INTERLEAGUE TOW) Both teams have played to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. Philly has seen teh total go "under" in three straight. The Phillies have now won four in a row. Note though that Philadelphia has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Houston has now seen the total go "under" in four straight after the back-to-back losses to open this series. However, note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent. Bailey Falter is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA for the Phillies, while Jose Urquidy is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA for the Astros. Pretty pedestrian numbers so far. All signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-29-23 | Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10* UNDER Cards/Dodgers (NL TOY) We're expecting a lower-scoring "duel" here in the second game of this three-game series. Last night the Dodgers won the opener by a score of 7-3. LA has now seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight. Despite still having several key injuries, LA is starting to resemble the team that won 111 games last year finally. That said, note that the Dodgers have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. We have two experienced starters going head-to-head here, and all signs point to a classic "duel" as we eluded to off the top, as the Cardinals' Jordan Montgomery is 2-3 with a 3.81 ERA, while the DOdgers' Clayton Kershaw is 4-1 with a 2.32 ERA. Everything points to this total now staying well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-28-23 | Yankees v. Rangers -176 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
10* Rangers (AL GOY) This is the second game of a four-game set between the Yankees and the Rangers. Thursday sees Gerrit Cole go up against Andrew Heaney, and we're releasing this selection before that game has even started. MLB is one of the only sports where each and every game has to be looked at individually, mainly because of the starting pitching aspect. This particular play is based almost entirely on the starting pitching matchup. The Rangers enter this series eager to bounce back after getting swept in three games by the Reds: "There's nothing to be concerned about," Rangers' coach Bruce Bochy said. "I mean, we've got a lot of baseball left. These guys will bounce back. We have a tough team ahead of us, so we will have to play our best ball, but no, no one is concerned, and we will continue to get better." But as stated off the top, this one is based upon the starting pitchers. Clarke Schmidt is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA for the Yankees, while Jacob deGrom is 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA for the Rangers. Look for the Rangers' new super-star starter to rise to the occassion here and get the better of his old cross-town rival; lay the price, the play is Texas! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-27-23 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
10* UNDER Dodgers/Pirates (EARLY) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end here this afternoon. The Dodgers have seen the total go "over" in five straight after yesterday's 8-1 loss. Note though that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Previous to this series with the Dodgers, the surging Pirates, who have now won eight of their last nine, had seen the total go "under" in four straight. Julio Urias is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA for LA, while Mitch Keller is 2-0 with a 3.64 ERA for Pittsburgh. Look for these competent starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay "under" the posted number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-26-23 | Marlins v. Braves -153 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Braves (NL BOB) Atlanta has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 11-0 and 7-4. We can expect the defending champs to keep the foot on the gas here in the third game of this four game set. Despite this being the Marlins ace in Sandy Alcantara, who was lights out last year, but who hasn't quite lived up to those expectations this season yet, I think we're getting great value on the defending champs here at home. They hand the ball to Bryce Elder, who is 2-0 with a minuscule 1.14 ERA and a sharp 23 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio. He had a hard luck no-decision last time outm, going six innings and allowing one run with six strikeouts vs. the hard-hitting Astros. Alcantara though as eluded to earlier hasn't been in the same form this season as he was last year, as so far he's 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA. In his last outing he went six innings and allowed five runs in a 5-0 loss at home to the Diamondbacks (Previous to that he was shelled for nine runs over four innings in a 15-3 loss at Philadelphia. At this time of the year, "current form" is crucial and as Bob Barker used to say as well, the Price Is Right on this one for sure; lay the price with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-25-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -167 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Brewers (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After losing two of their last three, including two in a row, including yesterday's series opener here vs. the lowly Tigers, we like the Brewers with their ace on the mound, to bounce back tonight. Spencer Turnbull is just 1-3 with a 7.85 ERA for the Tigers, and he's severely overmatched here by Eric Lauer, who is 3-1 with a 4.30 ERA. Note that the Brewers are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; lay the price with confidence, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-24-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Astros runline (BEST OF BEST) Two really good teams. Two really good pitchers. The Rays are 19-3 this season, including 13-0 at home. The defending champs are starting to play better after a slow start though, now 12-10 overall, including 6-3 on the road. The fact that the Rays have yet to suffer a home loss will be a big motivating factor for Houston here obviously. Jose Urquidy is 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA for the visitors, while Taj Bradley is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA for the home side. I say these starters are a "wash." In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extra innings, we're laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Houston on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-23-23 | Marlins v. Guardians OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
10* Marlins/Guardians OVER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this eveing. Miami has seen the total go "under" in nine straight games, while Cleveland has seen the total go "under" in six straight. Cleveland has lost the first two games of this contest by scores of 6-1 and 3-2. Note though that the Guardians have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The fact that these teams have played to so many "unders" of late has also helped in driving this particular total here today a couple points lower than it normally would/should be; because of that, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
8* Yankees (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After yesterday's series opening 6-1 loss yesterday, we're expecting Gerrit Cole and company to bounce back here and set the tone early in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Alek Manoah, who is coming off an incredible season, but who is just 1-1 with a 6.98 ERA this year. Cole is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA. Cole is back on track showing his elite form, while regression seems imminent for Manoah this season. Also note that the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in; lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-21-23 | Tigers v. Orioles -170 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) The discrepancy in talent and form between these starting pitchers absolutely justifies in laying this larger price in my opinion. Tyler Wells is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA for the Orioles. In his most recent outing he gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting White Sox. Detroit is just 3-6 on the road and it counters with Michael Lorenzen, who is 0-0 with a 13.50 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off eight hits over four innings vs. the Giants in his season debut on Saturday. We don't love Wells or anything overall as a starter, but we sure do love him here in this matchup; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Orioles! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10* D-Backs RUNLINE (NL WEST GOY) We feel that that home side has a very real shot of winning this game outright, but at this price, we're getting fantastic value on the runline option here. Guess who leads the NL West rigth now? It's not the Padres, the Giants or the Dodgers. It's the D-Backs at 11-8. San Diego is 9-11. Earlier in the year these teams split a two-game series in San Diego. Arizona though is tied for sixth in the league in steals with 19. That's bad news for a Padres team that allows a lot of steals. Michael Wacha gets the nod for SD and he's 2-1 with a 6.06 ERA, while the home side counter with Ryne Nelson, who is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA. Half of Nelson's six career starts have come against the Friars, so this is a team that he knows well (1-1, 3.12 ERA.) Wacha is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA lifetime vs. the D-Backs. Wacha had a bounce-back season last year, but regression seems imminent, epsecially after a slow start in 2023. Tatis returns finally for the Padres, but we expect him to come out slow here in his very first game back. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Arizona on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-20-23 | Angels v. Yankees -155 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
8* Yankees (MISMATCH) We have a couple of really good starters going head-to-head here, but we say that the "home field advantage" will prove to be the difference-maker in the end. LA won the opener by a score of 5-2, before dropping yesterday's contest 3-2. Note that Shohei Ohtani has looked human vs. the Yanks, going just 13 of 67 lifetime at the plate, which translates to a .194 average. He's also hitting just .140 (6 for 43) at Yankee Stadium. Sandoval is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA for the Angels, while Cortes Jr. is 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA for the Yanks. Cortes Jr. though is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels. Look for the Yanks to build off yesterday's victory and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-19-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros -109 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Astros (ASSASSIN) The Jays go with Jose Berrios, who is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA after three games. Berrios was crushed on the road over his first two starts by allowing 14 runs and 15 hits, but he did look better in his last start at home against the Rays by allowing one run over five innings to earn his first victory. Last year Berrios was just 5-5 with a 6.40 ERA on the road so I think he's going to struggle again here in this difficult road venue. Houston counters with Luis Garcia, who is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA afer three starts. The slow start is surprising considering Garcia was 11-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. So the bottom line here is we think Garcia is going to finally settle down, as we're not overreacting to the early results. We also really do think that the Jays continue to be overvalued early on in the season here, especially on the road. Great value on the hungrier home side; lay the short price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -176 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (MISMATCH) The Cards have lost the first two games of this series, but we're expecting them to salvage the finale with what we believe is the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them today. Arizona returns home for a four-game set with San Diego tomorrow. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA, while the home side counters with Jake Woodford, who is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA. Bumgarner is 5-7 with a 5.46 ERA in 15 career starts vs. St. Louis, while Woodford is coming off a gem, allowing seven hits and no runs and striking out three in a no-decision to the Pirates. Expect Woodford to get the better of his veteran counterpart and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-18-23 | Cubs -170 v. A's | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
6* BLOOD-BATH on the Cubs. The A's have yet to see one of their starting pitchers win this year, and I don't think it's happening today either. The home side hands the ball to Ken Waldichuk, who is 0-2 with a 10.20 ERA, while the visitors counter with Marcus Stroman, who is 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA. Oakland has lost five straight, including yesterday's contest 10-1. Stroman is 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in six career starts vs. Oakland and we expect him to easily deliver the goods in this spot; lay the price with confidence, the play is Chicago! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -160 | 8-7 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) Two decent starting pitchers here, but after yesterday's loss, I like the Cardinals to bounce back here at home on Tuesday. The D-Backs start Drey Jameson, who is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA, who has earned both of his wins coming out of the bullpen this year. Now starting, regression is imminent in my opinion. Jordan Montogmery is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA for St. Louis. So far he has 17 K's and five walks over 18 1/3's frames of work: "I'm going to go out there and try to eat up as many innings (as I can), save our bullpen, throw a hundred and whatever pitches," Montgomery said. "It's a little early now, but I want to be a horse going out there, give them 110, 115, every game." Lay the price, the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -144 | 6-3 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here, but it's a matchup that favors the home side in my opinion. The D-Backs hand the ball to Merril Kelly, who is 0-2 with a 2.93 ERA, while the home side counters with Jack Flaherty, who is 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA. Flaherty allowed one run over six innings in a victory at Colorado last time out. He's 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts vs. Arizona. Kelly has struggled with control over his last two starts, walking eight batters over his last 11 innings. While 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA lifetime vs. the Cards, "recent performance" is the big indicator of regression for Kelly in this instance. Look for the hungry Cards to keep the foot on the gas in this favorable matchup and lay the price with confidence; the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-16-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (CENTRAL DIVISION GOM) St. Louis had a three-game win streak going until yesterday's 6-3 upset loss as a -183 favorite. I like the Cards to bounce back here in the finale of this four game series though on Sunday. The Pirates hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA so far. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas, who is 0-1 with a 10.05 ERA after alowing six runs over five innings at Coors Field in his last outing: "In some odd parallel universe, I'm not super upset with today," said Mikolas afterwards. "The team won. The offense really picked me up. We made some great defensive plays. This is a team game. I didn't pitch as well as I would have liked to or anyone would have liked me to, but some days you have bad games. I don't get the win, the team does. The way we've been scuffling out of the gate, that's just the most important thing." St. Louis was an uncharacteristic 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position in Saturday's loss and it left nine runners on base. Don't expect that to happen again here. Look for Mikolas to settle down at home and for the Cardinals to salvage the finale of this four-game set; lay the price, the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-16-23 | Twins v. Yankees -154 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* Yankees (ASSASSIN) Minnesota took the first two games of this four-game series, but the Yanks bounced back with a 6-1 win yesterday. I expect another blowout victory here in the finale now, as the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this mid-sized price. Gerrit Cole is 3-0 with a tiny 1.40 ERA for New York and he has to be feeling confident here in this matchup, as he's 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in five career starts vs. Minnesota. Pablo Lopez is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA for the Twins. He's looked solid in the early going, but the sample size is just too small. Look for Cole to take advantage; this price should/could in fact be much larger, which swings the value in favor of New York in this one! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (ASSASSIN) I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, who is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to Texas in his last outing. So far Taillon has been a disaster this year and I think he's going to struggle here in this difficult road venue. The home side counter with Michael Grove, who is 0-1 with a 14.73 ERA after allowing nine runs over three innings after coming in in relief vs. Arizona last time out. This will be a bullpen game here for Grove and the home side, which is also an advantage that LA enjoys over Chicago. There is no starting pitching advantage here, and that swings the value to the hard-hitting and much deeper home side; lay the price with confidence, the play is LA! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Guardians -144 v. Nationals | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10* Guardians (IL BOB) Ultimately I believe that Zach Plesac and the visiting side could/shoud in fact be much bigger favorites in this spot. Plesac has so far gotten out to a slower start, going 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA after allowing two runs over seevn innings along with six K's in an unfortunate setback to the Mariners in his last outing (note that Plesac owned a 5.29 ERA in all night games last year, compared to just 3.28 ERA in all day games. The Nationals counter with the erratic Chad Kuhl, who is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to Colorado last time out. Kuhl was a pedestrian 2-4 with a 5.05 ERA at home last year and I believe he'll struggle in this difficult matchup; lay the price, the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Mets -175 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Mets (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) The talent discrepancy between these starting pitchers absolutely makes the visiting side worth the price of admission in this one. Carlos Carrasco is coming off a big bounce-back season for the Mets, but he'll be looking to bounce back this year now after starting 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA. He most recently allowed six runs over five innings in a loss to the Fish. Carrasco finished 6-4 with a 4.57 ERA on the road last year and he couldn't have asked for a better opponent to face here the anemic A's. The home side counters with the erratic Shintaro Fujinami, who is 0-2 with a 17.55 ERA after allowing five runs over four innings in a loss to Tampa Ba last time out. Look for Carrasco to be the one to finally settle down here and lay this price with confidence; the play is the Mets! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Jays RUNLINE (ULTIMATE) I had a play on the Rays yesterday in their 9-3 win over the Red Sox. Tampa is now 13-0 and the longer this winning streak continues to open the season for the Rays, the more unrealistic and unsustainable it becomes. Tampa is also clearly being overvalued now at this point by the bookmakers, as the majority of the public, along with seasoned pros are now essentially "blind betting" the Rays, without any real thought put into it at all. These starting pitchers are a "wash." I can make a good argument for either of these talented sides to win, but this comes down to the fact that the public and the oddsmakers have overvalued Tampa now at this point because of the unreal start. Regression is imminent Tampa fans. Regardless, at this price and with the extra 1.5 rums of insurance, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Toronto on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -150 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
8* Marlins (SPECIAL) Miami lost the opener of it three game series in Philadelphia by a score of 15-3, but then it won the next two games. Now back home, I like the Fish to keep the momentum rolling here. The D-Backs are 8-5, but they hand the ball to erratic veteran Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA, most recently going four innings and getting shelled for five runs in a loss to the Dodgers. Miami's offense has hit Bumgarner hard as well (Luis Arraez is 2-3, Stallings is hitting .429 in 7 ABs, Garcia is 2-6, and Hampson is hitting .222 in 27 ABs.) Miami goes with Trevor Rogers, wh is 0-2 with a 6.0) ERA, most recently allowing three runs over five innings to the Mets. Both starters now catch a break facing inferior lineups for the first time. Miami has been better offensivel though and it's always crushed Mad-Bum. Good value here on Rogers bouncing back at home; lay the price, the play is Miami! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Phillies -141 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I like the Phillies to bounce back here after three straight losses. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 in its last eight after three or more straight losses in a row. The Phillies go with Taijuan Walker (0-1, 6.00 ERA), while the home side counters with Connor Overton (0-0, 10.13.) The Reds have somehow managed to win both of Overton's starts despite allowing nine runs over 14 innings of work. Walker on the other hand is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA vs. the Reds, while Overton is fortunate to have two no-decisions vs. the Phillies, as he's posted a combied 10.80 ERA in those contests. Look for Philadelphia to "dig deep" here with the superior starter on the hill; la the price, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -175 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
10* Rays (AL EAST GOY) I bet underdogs. I bet totals. I also bet favorites. I'm never afraid to "lay chalk," especially when I believe that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the case here. Boston hands the ball to the erratic Corey Kluber, who is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA after allowing one run over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh. Note that Kluber was just 3-7 with a 5.08 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with the red hot Jeffrey Springs who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Rays after going seven innings and scattering three hits with seven K's in an 11-0 win over Oakland. "Recent performance" is HUGE here in my break down of this contest. I look for Springs to keep the good times rolling here, as Tampa punishes Kluber early and often; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Rays! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-12-23 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Off three straight victories, the Rangers will look to keep things rolling here against the Royals. Texas has seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, which is significant to note as the Rangers have in fact seen the total "under" the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. KC enters off three straight losses, which is also important to take note of here, as the Royals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Brad Keller is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA for the Royals, while Nate Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA for the Rangers. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-12-23 | White Sox v. Twins -158 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. In the early going in baseball, a good place to start to break down a matchup is with the starting pitching, nd in this case, not only is it the starting point for me, but it's also the ending point. I'm basing this pick on recent form and feel that Sonny Gray and the home side could or should in fact be larger favorites in this spot. The White Sox opened with a slim 4-3 series win, before the Twins responded with a 4-3 win yesterday. So far White Sox' starter Lucas Gioltio has struggled. He's 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA after two starts, most recently he lasted just four innings and allowed 12 hits and seven earned runs in a 13-9 loss to the lowly Pirates on the road. Last year Giolito was good on the road, but this season after two starts he's been terrible. Gray though is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA after two starts to go along with a 14 to 5 strikeout to walk ratio. Most recently he went seven innings and allowed one run here at home over the Astros. That's saying something for sure in my books. Gray is locked in and on top form and at this price, I think he's well worth the price of admission; lay the price, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Dodgers -141 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -141 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (END OF NIGHT BLOWOUT) I think that Dustin May and the Dodgers are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Ma is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA after his second straight strong start, going six innings and allowing one run with five K's in a victory over Arizona. May looks to return to his 2021 form after an injury shortened 2022, in which he finished 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Alex Wood, who is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA after going three innings and allowing three runs in a fortunate no-decision vs. the White Sox in his season debut. Wood was pedestrian last year, including just 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA at home. These divisional contests are always exciting, but most lop-sided. In all honesty, I feel that this line should/could in fact be much larger. Great value here on the undervalued visiting side; the play is LA! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -149 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -149 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BOB) I think that Aaron Nola and the Phillies are well worth the price of admission in this one. Nola is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA after back-to-back shaky starts. In his last one he did go six innings and struck out five, while allowing three runs though in a no-decision vs. the Yanks. Nola now returns home for the first time this year, and I expect the veteran to be at his best in this one (note that he was 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA at home last season.) The visitors counter with Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA after back-to-back strong outings, ost recently going seven innings and allowing one run in a win over Minnesota. I expect Luzardo to come back down to Earth here finally, while at the same time, all signs point to Nola now stepping up and taking advantage here; lay the price, the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Astros -171 v. Pirates | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -171 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
10* Astros (IL GOM) I think that Christian Javier and the Astros are well worth the price of admission on Tuesday. Javier is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA after going six innings and allowing one run and striking out five in a victory over Detroit. Javier was great on the road last year, finishing 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by Mitch Keller, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA after going seven innings and allowing one run in a victory over Boston. Keller was just 1-7 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. After B2B decent road showings, I think Keller regresses here. Houston's pen is superior and so is Javier, so lay the price with confidence, the play is indeed on the Astros! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-10-23 | Royals v. Rangers -165 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rangers (ASSASSIN) I think that Andrew Heaney and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. The Royals hand the ball to veteran Zack Greinke, who is 0-2 with a 2.38 ERA. Heaney is 0-1 with a 23.63 ERA. Suffice it to say, I look for Heaney's second start of the season to be much better. This is a matchup that the doctor ordered for Heaney, as the KC offense has been inconsistent at best. Note that KC is just 15-37 in its last 52 meeting here. The Rangers are also 4-0 i their last four games vs. a starter with a WHIP over 1.30, and Greinke's is currently 1.41. Look for Texas to improve to 5-2 at home this season; the play is the Rangers! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles -165 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (PITCHING MISMATCH) I think that Kyle Gibson and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. JP Sears is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA for the A's, while Kyle Gibson is already 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA for the Orioles. Gibson allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings in a win over the hard-hitting Rangers in his last outing, and I expect him to make short work of this pathetic A's line-up as well. Sears should be in the bullpen, but he's being pressed into a starters role out of necessity; lay the price with confidence, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-10-23 | Yankees v. Guardians -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Guardians (AL GOW) I like the way this one sets up for the Guardians. The Yanks go with Domingo German, who is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Shane Bieber, who enters 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He gave up three runs and struck out seven in a no-decision vs. the A's in his opener. Bieber has had success vs. the Yanks at past, and at this price on his own field, I feel we are indeed getting tremendous value from the home side; lay the price, the play is CLEVELAND. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-09-23 | Royals v. Giants -153 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
8* Giants (SPECIAL) I think the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this particular instance. The Royals hand the ball to Kyle Bubic, who is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA after allowing two runs over five innings in his season debut vs. the Jays (note that Bubic was just 2-7 with a 5.39 ERA On the road last season.) The home side counters with Anthon DeSclafani, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits over six innings in a 12-3 win over the White Sox in his season debut. He looks to return to his 2021 form, after an injury-shortened 2022. Look for the Giants' bullpen to be a difference in this one as well; lay the price with confidence, the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-09-23 | Yankees -145 v. Orioles | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors Nestor Cortes Jr. and the Yankees. Cortes Jr. is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA this year after going five innings in a win over Philadelphia in his season debut. Cortes Jr. was sharp both at home and on the road last year, finishing 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Tyler Wells, hos is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going five innings and striking out two vs. the Rangers. Last year Wells was just 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA at home. Look for Cortes Jr. and the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage; lay the price, the play is New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-09-23 | Reds v. Phillies -171 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -171 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I feel that Philadelphia is well worth the price of admission in this one. I play dogs, totals, and I'm also not afraid to lay chalk, especially when I feel that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the definitely the case in this one. Connor Overton gets the nod for the Reds, and he's 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA over five runs off eight hits over four innnings. He'll be opposed by vetrean Taijuan Walker, who enters 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings vs. the Yanks in his season debut. Walker has the experience and pedigree to make an immediate return to the winner's circle here and I have no problem laying this larger price on what I expect to be a lop-sided destruction from start to finish. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Nationals v. Rockies -130 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
10* Rockies (NL BOB) I think that Austin Gomber and the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this one. The visitors go with Trevor Williams, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA after allowing four runs over five innings in a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay in his opener. Note that Williams was 0-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the road last season. The Rockies' Gomber is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA after allowing three runs over six innings in a tight 3-1 loss to San Diego. Considering how weak this Nationals' bullpen is, I feel Gomber for sure should be favored by more at home here; great value on Colorado! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Padres v. Braves -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Braves (BLOOD-BATH) We have an excitig NL matchup here, but it's one that favors Charlie Morton and the home side in my opinion. In fact, I don't think you can underestimate how important the home field advantage will be in this particular matchup. Michael Wacha is 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA for the Padres after allowing four runs over six innings with two K's in a fortunate win over the Rockies in his opener. Charlie Morton gets the call for the home side and he's 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA after allowing three runs over five innings in an 8-4 victory over the Cardinals in his season opener. A battle of veterans here, but as stated off the top, hom field advantage will prove to be the difference for Morton today; lay the price with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Marlins v. Mets -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
8* Mets (MOUND MISMATCH) The talent discrepancy between these starters makes the home side well worth the price of admission in my opinion. Trevor Rogers is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA for the Marlins after going four innings and allowing four runs in a setback to the Mets in his opener. Rogers was just 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA on the road last season and I think he'll struggle in this difficult away venue. The home side counters with the underrated Kodai Senga, who enters 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing one run to go along with eight K's in a victory over Miami. Now back at home, I think Senga could/should in fact be a much bigger fav in this one; lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Reds v. Phillies -137 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
8* Phillies (ROUT) I think Bailey Falter and the home side are worth the price of admission in this one. Falter is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing two runs to go along with three K's in a tight 2-1 setback with the Rangers. Now at home, I like Falter to settle down and take advantage. Nick Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA after going five innings in and allowing two runs with nine K's in a 6-2 victory over Pittsburgh. Lodolo was just 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA on the road though and I think he'll struggle here in this difficult road venue; all things considered, I believe we're getting great line value here on the Phillies! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -153 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) I think Brandon Woodruff and the home side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Woodruff is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA, while his counterpart Jack Flaherty is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Cardinals. The Brewers have won five straight, including 10-0 and 9-0 destructions of the Mets earlier this week. The Cards enter off three straight losses in Atlanta. That's bad news for St. Louis, as dating back to last year finds Woodruff having gone 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA over his last 19 starts (he was 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA in three starts vs. the Cards last year.) Flaherty hasn't fared as well vs. the Brewers, going 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 16 appearances vs. them (he's also just 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA in eight starts at Milwaukee.) All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; lay the price, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-07-23 | Marlins v. Mets -145 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
10* Mets (ASSASSIN) At this time of year, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, Tyler Megill and the home side should/could in fact be much larger favorites in this home matchup. Megill (1-0, 3.60 ERA) will face off against Edward Cabrera (0-0, 4.50.) This is the second time they've faced each other, with Megill having already beaten the Fish in Miami to kick off the 2023 campaign. The rain-out/delay from Thursday only works in the Mets favor here in my opinion. Megill is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in three games vs. the Marlins, while Cabrera is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA in five starts vs. the Mets; look for New York to take advantage early here and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves -171 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
10* Braves (NL GOM) We're going to have an exciting series here in Atlanta, and we have a good pitching matchup to open things up between the Padres' Blake Snell, and the Braves' Spencer Strider. That said, I feel this is a contest that favors the home side. Snell enters 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, lasing only four innings and allowing six hits and three runs in a 7-2 loss to the Rockies. Strider is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits and no runs over six innings in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. Strider was 6-1 with a 2.18 ERA at home last yera, and in my professional opinion, he could/should in fact be a much larger fav in this spot. I don't trust Snell on the road; lay the price, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-06-23 | Blue Jays -173 v. Royals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
8* Jays (BLOWOUT SPECIAL) Because it's still so early in the season, I'm looking for value with starting pitching most of the time. And in my opinion, Kevin Gausman and the Jays could/should in fact be much larger favs here in this matchup on the road in KC vs. veteran Jordan Lyles. Guasman enters 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA after going six innings and allowing three runs and striking out seven vs. the Cardinals. Gausman excels on the road, last year he was 8-3 with a tiny 2.30 ERA away from friendly confines. Lyles is 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA after going five innings and allowing two runs with two K's in a 2-0 loss to the Twins on April 1st. Look for Gausman's road dominance to continue to open up 2023 and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-06-23 | Red Sox -134 v. Tigers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
8* Red Sox (MOUND MISMATCH) At this point of the season, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, I think Chris Sale and the visiting side offer great value here. Both starters got crushed in their respective openers, but I believe Sale has everything in place for a bounce back effort. Spencer Turnbull gets the nod for the Tigers, and he was rocked for seven runs off eight hits over two innings in a loss to Tampa in his opener. Sale gave up seven runs over three innings to the Orioles. Sale though is 10-8 with a 2.96 ERA in 33 career appearances vs. Detroit. Look for Sale to get the better of his counterpart and lay the price with confidence; the play is Boston! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-05-23 | Angels -148 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Angels (DESTRUCTION) Two really good starters here, but I like the way this one sets up for Shohei Ohtani and the visiting side. Ohtani is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Angels, while Chris Flexen is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Mariners. Flexen is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Angels, but Ohtani is 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA in six career starts vs. the Mariners. He received a no-decision in his opening start, despite striking out ten. The Angels line-up is healthy and I expect them to take advantage here; lay the price, the play is the Angels! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-05-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -156 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) The Phillies got off the schneid to move to 1-4 with a victory here yesterday, but I like the home side to bounce back and take this three-game interleague series. Gerrit Cole is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Yanks after allowing three hits over six innings, striking out 11 in a victory over the Giants. He's 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Phillies. Who are still missing many key pieces in their lineup. Aaron Nola is 0-0 with a 12.27 ERA after struggling in his opener vs. the Rangers, allowing five runs over three innings. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts vs. New York, but I say he's in over his head here in this difficult road venue. Up until last year, Nola's kryptonite has been his play on the road. I think regression is in order for Nola this season and overall we're getting great value on New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Royals +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
8* Royals runline (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams are 1-3. Both really need a win here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Both teams have struggled at the plate so far. I give the slight nod to Kris Bubic in this starting pitching matchup though. He was 3-13 with a 5.58 ERA last season, but he looked great in the Spring, going 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA spannning 11 innings, with 15 K's over five appearances. Yusei Kikuchi was just 6-7 with a 5.19 ERA last year. In five career starts vs. the Royals he's a pitiful 0-2 with an 8.69 ERA. The outright is possible, but the value here lies with the runline; and that's indeed the play here, KC on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -137 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Padres (ASSASSIN) The Padres are rolling with three straight victories now. I say they keep the foot on the gas here with the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Zac Gallen had a great year last year for the D-Backs, but he got rocked on Opening Day, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks over just 4 2/3's innings. Gallen was terrible in Spring, posting a ballooned 8.27 ERA over four starts. Darvish was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA last year. He always starts strong and I expect that to again be the case this season; all things considered, I feel we're getting unreal line value here on Darvish and the home side! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Astros | 7-6 | Win | 103 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
8* play Tigers runline. Detroit is another team that's started 0-3. The Astros looked great at times in their opening series, and pretty pedestrian in others. They're 2-2. Both starters saw limited action in 2022. Boyd was 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, and Brown was 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA. The Tigers went down hard in that series opener, but it wasn't for a lack of trying, striking out 30 times over three games. Boyd faced the Astros once back in 2021 and he conceded just one run off six hits with one walk and four K's over seven innings in the victory. The Astros looked pedestrian at the plate in their first series collectively (.227), so that leaves the door open here for the desperate visting side. Brown is young and his sample size is still too small to properly assess. I say regression is imminent; in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance with Detroit! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Yankees | 1-8 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
8* play Phillies runline. After starting the season 0-3, I think that Taijuan Walker can, at the very least, match his counterpart Nick Cortes Jr. inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, I feel the value swings to the desperate underdog visiting side. The Phillies are still missing key pieces in their hitting line-up. Taijuan Walker though is going to be the difference-maker in my opinion, as the veteran was 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA for the Mets last year. He faced the Yanks twice last season, going 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA over 11 innings. The Yanks are 2-1 after beating the Giants in their Opening series. Cortes Jr. went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA last year. The 0-3 sweep won't be sitting well with anyone in Philadelphia and I expect a much more concerted effort here. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | Cubs -117 v. Reds | 6-7 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
8* play on the Cubs. After one series, the Cubs bullpen looks pretty good. Combined with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, I think the visitors offer good value here. Connor Overton was 1-0 with a 2.73 ERA in 2022 for the Reds, but he missed 110 games with injury. He was 0-2 with a 15.34 ERA over 11 2/3's innings this spring. Drew Smyly was 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 2022. He was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in five Spring starts, but note that he closed last season by conceding two or fewer runs in eight of his final nine starts to go along with a 2.28 ERA. He's also 5-0 with a 2.92 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Reds. Look for Chicago and Smyly to step up and take advantage here; the play is the Cubs! AAA Sports |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $759 |
Joey Tron | $580 |
William Burns | $483 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Tom Macrina | $468 |
Jesse Schule | $466 |
Matt Fargo | $398 |
Big Al McMordie | $324 |
Ricky Tran | $258 |
AAA Sports | $229 |