Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-21-22 | Northern Kentucky v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 133.5 | Top | 61-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is the Gulf Coast Showcase, a tournament that takes place in Estero, FL, which is just about 10 minutes from Florida Gulf Coast’s campus. The Eagles face a Northern Kentucky team that is tricky defensively and this should lead to a pretty low-scoring game on Monday night. Northern Kentucky likes to play a matchup zone, which is difficult to break down and often leads to long possessions and bad shots by the opponent. FGCU is already not a particularly great shooting team (37.6 FG% in three games away from home), so they’re likely to struggle offensively in this one. Few teams in the country play slower than Northern Kentucky. The Norse are 341st (out of 363 D-I teams) in pace. Again, that’s conducive to an Under play. NKU is coming off a 64-51 win over Cincinnati. That was a game the Norse came in as 6.5-point underdogs. They held the Bearcats to 33.9% shooting. FGCU could only manage 50 points against Tennessee in its last game, which it lost by 31 (they were 20.5-point underdogs). I just don’t see any way both teams score more than 65 points in this one and neither should “go off” either. 10* | |||||||
11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Utah takes on Georgia Tech here as part of the Fort Myers Tipoff. These teams are in the event’s “Beach Division.” Every team from the “Beach Division” was successful in games vs. teams from the “Palms Division” with one exception, that being Utah, who lost 65-55 to Sam Houston State as a 10-point favorite. As a result of that embarrassing defeat, expect the Utes to come out motivated tonight. First off, SHSU had previously beaten Oklahoma before beating the Utes. The other big takeaway from that game is how SHSU, a team that was making only 50% of its free throws, went 12 of 14 from the line against Utah. Utah is usually pretty sound defensively. They’re allowing a FG% of just 34.0 and 53.7 points/game. I don’t think it will be very difficult to guard a Georgia Tech team that is only averaging five made three-pointers per game thus far. The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 following an 18-point win over Northern Illinois last week. But this is easily their toughest test yet and being so limited offensively, I expect the underdog to struggle. One of the tallest teams in the entire country, look for Utah to dominate the boards in this matchup. We’re getting a cheap price on the Utes because of the previous result. Take advantage. 10* | |||||||
11-20-22 | Virginia v. Illinois -1 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
This is the Final of the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. #16 Virginia upset #5 Baylor to get here while #19 Illinois rallied back to beat #8 UCLA. Whoever wins this thing is going to have a nice mark on their resume.
I like Illinois to win. Here’s the thing. Virginia just can’t possibly hope to shoot the ball as well here as they did vs. Baylor.
The Cavaliers made 55.6% of their overall field goal attempts on Friday and were 9 of 14 from downtown. They also attempted 35 free throws and made 27.
Illinois, I believe, has the edge here both on the inside and from behind the arc. Terrance Shannon Jr, a transfer from Texas Tech, is the player to watch. He scored 29 points against UCLA and was 8 of 9 from three. Virginia has been uncharacteristically bad at defending the three-point line so far. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt% allowed. Illinois scored 51 pts in the second half vs. UCLA after going for 103 against Monmouth and 86.5 PPG in the two contests before that. 10* | |||||||
11-18-22 | Indiana -2.5 v. Xavier | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble.
Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here.
Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession).
Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three. First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10* | |||||||
11-18-22 | Buffalo v. Drake -12.5 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
I’m expecting this first game in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam to be a blowout. All signs point the favorite (Drake) winning very big.
About the only positive thing I can say about Buffalo right now is they are playing fast. The Bulls are listed at #1 in adjusted tempo over at KenPom. However, being that they are so inexperienced, the fast pace has led to a lot of turnovers and poor defense. Through three games, UB is 313th in turnovers while allowing 58% shooting from inside the arc (311th) and they are sending opponents to the free throw line at a very high rate as well.
The result is a 1-2 start with nearly 90 points/game allowed. After beating Colgate by a single point, the Bulls have lost by 35 to James Madison (at home) and by 20 to UConn.
Drake is a team that can take advantage of Buffalo’s deficiencies. The Bulldogs should have beaten Wofford by more than they did on Monday. They won by only eight because Wofford made six more threes. It was a pretty woeful 5 of 24 for Drake from behind the arc. But they shot 68% on two-point attempts. Remember what I said earlier about Buffalo’s poor interior defense. Drake doesn’t turn the ball over much either. They’ve scored 80 points against two teams that like to play slow. Here, against a sloppy, inexperienced team, the Bulldogs should put a ton of points on the board and cover the number rather easily. 10* | |||||||
11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's OVER 158 | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This figures to be a fast-paced, up-tempo game with a ton of scoring from both teams. St. John’s has played very fast in its first three games, all of which have gone Over. Led by some key transfers, the Red Storm are currently playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country per KenPom.
Nebraska isn’t playing quite as fast, but the Cornhuskers are 69th in tempo. They have shot 55% from inside the three-point arc in two games, which were wins over Maine and Omaha. They averaged 77 points/game.
Tonight is a clear step up in competition for the ‘Huskers. I do worry about them defensively in this matchup. They allowed those first two opponents to shoot 37% from three-point range and I don’t see them having much of an answer for St. John’s big man Joel Soriano, especially if Derrick Walker remains out.
St. John’s has shot almost 55 percent from the field in their first three games and 41% from three. But they too have defensive issues as more than 40% of the points they allow are coming from behind the arc. The Red Storm going Over the total is not new. They are 24-8 Over the last 32 times they’ve been favored. 10* | |||||||
11-15-22 | San Diego State -4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016. San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific. A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State | |||||||
11-15-22 | Chattanooga v. Ole Miss OVER 139 | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Chattanooga lost its season opener at Charleston 75-68, but that loss certainly doesn’t look so bad now after Charleston gave #1 North Carolina a game. Chattanooga also quickly bounced back with a 93-49 win over Oakland City last Thursday.
Ole Miss is a not surprising 2-0 as they’ve defeated Alcorn State 73-58 and Florida Atlantic 80-67. The Rebels came out more aggressive in the second game and ended up shooting 50% overall and 40% from three against FAU.
There was a defensive lapse in that FAU game as Ole Miss let a 17-point second half lead dwindle down to six. But give the Rebels’ credit for then immediately bouncing back with a 12-5 run of their own. This team is getting outstanding production from its bench so far. Rebels’ reserves have combined to score 69 points in the two games.
Ole Miss will be tested defensively here as Chattanooga likes to push pace a lot more than either Alcorn State or FAU. But the flip side of that is the Rebels should see more scoring opportunities. This is likely to be their highest scoring game yet, so that means more than 80 points from them. Therefore, we won’t need a ton from Chattanooga to send this game Over the total. Being that the Mocs have averaged 85.5 points the first two games, they should give us more than enough. 10* | |||||||
11-14-22 | Wofford v. Drake -10 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.
Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48.
For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen.
Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half. Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10* | |||||||
11-14-22 | Oral Roberts v. Houston UNDER 144.5 | Top | 45-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Houston hosts Oral Roberts Monday night. The third-ranked Cougars have played twice thus far and as you’d expect, based on the opponents, won big both times. It was a 47-point win over Northern Colorado followed by a 26-point win over St. Joe’s. The latter was played at a neutral court (Annapolis).
In their season opener, Oral Roberts had a tough time early on with what looks like a very good St. Mary’s team. The Eagles were down big at the half before rallying late to get inside the number. Their second game was a 95-62 win over John Brown, a non-board team.
The key to handicapping this matchup is that Houston is going to try and slow ORU down. Oral Roberts would like to play fast, but that is easier said than done against this tough Cougars’ squad.
Houston has been gifting opposing teams too many free throw attempts thus far, so that’s probably going to be a point of emphasis for coach Kelvin Sampson. As long as the issue does not persist, Oral Roberts just isn’t going to score very many points here. Houston is 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343th in tempo. This is a higher total than what we saw for Oral Roberts-St. Mary’s and it should not be. Take the Under. 10* | |||||||
11-11-22 | Kansas State -6 v. California | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.
There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.
On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.
Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10* | |||||||
11-10-22 | Central Michigan v. Marquette -17.5 | Top | 73-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.
This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.
Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team?
The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10* | |||||||
11-09-22 | Monmouth v. Seton Hall UNDER 135.5 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
On Saturday Seton Hall will face St. Peters, which is where head coach Shaheen Holloway previously served. But first they’ll play Monmouth, who was also in the MAAC - until this year.
The Hawks have moved to the Colonial for 2022-23. They make the transition to a new conference having lost all five starters from last season’s team. No transfers were brought in to soften the blow. There are some recruits. But expect a slow start to the season from Monmouth. Monmouth is 19-8 Under its last 27 road games.
Seton Hall is 28-12 the last 40 times it has been favored. Seton Hall also likes to play slow, which lends itself to the Under. The Pirates were also a great defensive team last season, ranking Top 25 nationally in efficiency. 10* | |||||||
11-08-22 | Montana +4 v. Duquesne | Top | 63-91 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back. There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State. After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10* | |||||||
11-07-22 | Memphis -2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide.
Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points.
Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.
Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10* | |||||||
04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
For the second half of the Miami game and first half against Villanova, Kansas pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country. They outscored those two opponents 87-44 over that 40 minute span. Now you may consider that to be “cherry picking” the best of the Jayhawks. But at no point in this NCAA Tournament have I ever believed they were in real danger of being eliminated. North Carolina trailed at the half in the Sweet 16 and Final Four. They also were taken to overtime by Baylor after blowing a 25-point lead. The Tar Heels were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament, so few expected them to get this far. This is the fourth time in six games where the Heels are underdogs. I think their run ends Monday. Let’s start with an update on the ankle injury to UNC’s Armando Bacot. Coach Hubert Davis has dubbed him “ready to play,” but having your leading scorer and rebounder injured going into the biggest game of the season is not ideal. Bacot also leads the Tar Heels in blocks and field goal percentage. I expect David McCormack of Kansas to take advantage of Bacot being less than 100 percent. McCormack went for a season-high 25 against Villanova. Also, don’t forget about Ochai Agbaji, who leads the Jayhawks in scoring. Kansas is more experienced on the bench as Bill Self has been here forever and won a National Championship. North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is a rookie coach. The Jayhawks’ top eight scorers have played in a combined 973 games. They were built for this. Lay the points. | |||||||
04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -3.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 55 m | Show |
UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. To say the Blue Devils will be highly motivated to avenge that last loss UNC is putting it mildly. Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC this year. North Carolina has had a nice run, but it is worth mentioning that they were an 8-seed coming into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, they are better than how they were seeded, but being an 8-seed shows they are far from the most consistent team. The Blue Devils are just the better team here. North Carolina could have lost to either Baylor or UCLA, before they got lucky and faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8. I’ve never sensed Duke being in any danger in their tourney run. While most teams have struggled to find their shot in the NCAA Tournament, Duke hasn’t. The Blue Devils have made over 50% of their field goal attempts and scored at least 78 points in every game. | |||||||
04-02-22 | Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. Don’t see that happening against Villanova. There’s a major edge at the charity stripe for ‘Nova as they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in College Basketball history. Kansas shoots it at just 72% from the FT line. Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is just 7-5 ATS. Villanova is also 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 10 seasons. They have the best overall ATS record in the country during that time. The last five head to head meetings between Villanova and Kansas have seen ‘Nova cover all five times. They also won four of the games outright, including a National Semifinal in 2018 by a score of 95-78. These teams seem pretty even to me, and even with the Moore injury, I will be taking the points. | |||||||
04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
I like Coastal Carolina to at least cover, and probably win, The Basketball Classic. They get this game at home where they’ve already won twice in the tournament - by 24 and 16 points. Things were a lot closer when the Chanticleers had to travel to face South Alabama on Monday. But they still came out ahead 69-68 in overtime and that is not an easy place to win at (South Alabama had just two home losses previously). Fresno State has played all of its games at home for The Basketball Classic and I can’t see them replicating Monday when they waxed Southern Utah by 19 points. That game saw the Bulldogs make more than 50% of their threes while the opponent shot terribly (31.1% overall, 20% from three). Coastal Carolina is averaging 76.7 points per game at home. They outscore teams by 14.5 PPG here. Fresno State averages only 63.1 points per game on the road. Their last road win came on February 22nd. It was against a terrible Air Force team. The Bulldogs are the favorites here and I’m not exactly sure why! Coastal Carolina is at home, will obviously be motivated and getting points. What’s not to like? FSU is 1-4 ATS its last five tries as a favorite. | |||||||
03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
We’re also down to the “Final Four” in the NIT this week as tonight the two semi finals take place, followed by the Final on Thursday. St. Bonaventure has pulled off three consecutive upsets to get to this point. The Bonnies have beaten Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia, a list of victories made all the more impressive by the fact they all came on the road. Over their last five games, the Bonnies have held opponents to an average of 61.5 points. Xavier’s three NIT wins were all at home and two of them were by a total of six points. Of course, St. Bonaventure’s last two wins have been by a combined three points. The winner here is probably going to be an underdog to the winner of Washington State-Texas A&M. This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. Worth talking about is how St. Bonaventure only averages 62.7 points per game, away from home, for the year. They were above that against Colorado and Oklahoma, but only scored 52 vs. Virginia in what was a very low-scoring contest. The Bonnies are 4-0 Under the last four times they’ve been favored. Xavier is on a 10-4-1 Under run its last 15 neutral site games as an underdog. Play the Under. | |||||||
03-28-22 | Coastal Carolina +3 v. South Alabama | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
We’re down to the semifinals of “The Basketball Classic” with Coastal Carolina taking on South Alabama. Winner here will meet the winner of Southern Utah vs. Fresno State (also played tonight). I’m taking the dog. This game is taking place in Mobile, but the home court advantage hasn’t been a big boost to South Alabama so far in this tournament. The previous two games were at home and the Jaguars are 0-2 ATS. They obviously won both, but by a total of only six points. Will USA shoot 58.8% again like they did last week vs. USC Upstate? Unlikely. Coastal Carolina has held its opponents to 38.4% shooting overall for the season. The Chanticleers have been far more dominant than South Alabama has in this tournament. CC’s first two wins have been by 24 and 16 points. Going back to the end of the regular season, this is a team that has won five of its last six games. These teams are conference rivals, both hailing from the Sun Belt. It is a huge revenge opportunity for the underdog, who lost the only regular season matchup - by three points at home. Coastal has lost three in a row to USA, but all three losses were by six points or less. They will be amped for this opportunity to exact revenge. | |||||||
03-27-22 | St. Peter's +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
St. Peter’s has stunned the College Basketball world by becoming the first 15 seed to make the Elite 8. In addition to upsets over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, the Peacocks have covered the spread in 10 straight games. They have not lost a game since Feb 20th at Siena. Somewhat lost in the Peacocks’ miracle run is the team they’re facing in the Regional Final is an 8-seed. No one expected North Carolina to get here either, even though the Tar Heels have now won 13 of their last 15 games. With Duke advancing to the Final Four yesterday, EVERYONE is going to be anticipating a Duke-UNC rematch next weekend (UNC handed Duke a humbling loss in Coach K’s final home game). But St. Peter’s has the better defensive efficiency rating in this matchup. They are top 25 nationally in that regard, which tells me that this run is not all smoke and mirrors. This is a team that just held Purdue, who had the country’s most efficient offense, to 64 points. The Peacocks may not win, but I’m taking the points. Remember that North Carolina trailed most of the game against UCLA. I don’t see the favorite scoring a ton of points in this matchup. | |||||||
03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas OVER 147 | Top | 50-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Kansas is the only 1-seed still standing in this NCAA Tournament. They’ll take on a 10-seed, Miami, in the Elite 8. It’s seemingly a favorable matchup for the Jayhawks, but I’m not confident in laying the points. I played against Kansas in the Sweet 16, making my Providence my 10* Game of the Month. The Jayhawks shot only 39.3 percent from the floor, but relied on their defense, holding the Friars to 33.8 percent for a 66-61 win. The underdog did cover and that’s all I was looking for. Expect the shooting to improve - from both Kansas and the opponent - today. Miami is a much bigger offensive threat than anyone that the Jayhawks have faced so far in this tournament. The Hurricanes are in the Top 20 in offensive efficiency, just like Kansas, nationally. The ‘Canes also relied on outstanding three-point defense in the Sweet 16. They held Iowa State, a poor offensive team to begin with, to 4 of 23. Probably can’t count on doing that to Kansas. Kansas is coming off its second lowest-scoring game since January. So they are due for a bounce back offensively. Miami is 7-3 Over its last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Take the Over here. | |||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Duke was involved in the lone Sweet 16 game to go Over the total, a 78-73 win over a Texas Tech that rated #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Coach K’s career is still alive and kicking as his Blue Devils put up an impressive 49 points in the second half of that game. Save for St. Peter’s winning last night, the biggest shocker from the Sweet 16 was Arkansas beating Gonzaga. The Razorbacks went out and beat the #1 team in the country by a score of 74-68 despite being 9.5 point underdogs. The Hogs have now stayed Under in two straight games after their previous seven all went Over. Their second round game was very low-scoring (beat NMSU 53-48) and featured poor shooting from both teams. Arkansas is not a good three-point shooting team, making only 30.5% of its attempts for the year. We know Duke can score and eight of the Blue Devils’ last nine games have gone Over. But can they continue this red-hot shooting we’ve seen from them in this tournament? All three games have seen Coach K’s team make at least 51% of their field goal attempts. Arkansas holds teams to around 40%. Duke shot 70% percent from the field against Texas Tech in the second half and made its last eight shots. No way that carries over to tonight. There were only 62 points scored in the first half of that game. Arkansas is shooting only 39.4% overall its last five games and none of those contests have seen more than 146 points scored. | |||||||
03-26-22 | Houston -2 v. Villanova | Top | 44-50 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Houston is the favorite in this Regional Final, despite being the lower seed, as they have covered six in a row and just dispatched top seeded Arizona. The Cougars appear to be as strong as any team left in the field. They are top ten in offensive AND defensive efficiency. No other team still standing can say that. Villanova, like Houston, is 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve beaten Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan, none of whom were seeded higher than seventh (and the 7-seed Ohio State was basically a pick ‘em vs. 10-seed Loyola Chicago in the first round). ‘Nova’s shooting percentages - both overall and from three - have gone down each game. This will be only the sixth time where the Wildcats are underdogs this year. They are 1-4 (straight up) previously in the role. Houston is one of the top pointspread teams in the entire country at 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 on a neutral court. The way Houston dominated Arizona, an elite team, from start to finish cannot be overlooked. All three Houston wins in this tournament have been by double digits. They’ve actually won six straight by double digits. Defensively, the Cougars are #1 in the country in FG% defense and I think they are going to do an excellent job at limiting Villanova’s threes. Also, look for Houston to continue to clean up on the offensive glass. They’ve collected 10+ offensive rebounds in five straight games. Villanova has allowed 11+ offensive rebounds in five of the last six games, the lone exception coming against Delaware. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL -145 | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 97 h 35 m | Show |
analysis coming | |||||||
03-25-22 | Providence +8 v. Kansas | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 128 h 30 m | Show |
So Providence has proven a lot of its detractors wrong thus far by turning in two strong efforts here in the NCAA Tournament. First they defeated high-flying South Dakota State 66-57. That one was impressive because they held the second highest scoring team in the nation to almost 30 points less than its season average. Then, in the second round, the Friars really put the clamps down in a 79-51 blowout of Richmond. Now that was a 13 and a 12 seed that Providence faced. Now they face top seeded Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten Texas Southern (a 16-seed) and Creighton (who finished several games back of Providence in the Big East). So this is also their stiffest test so far in the Big Dance. Providence has lost only five games this season and only three times by more than five points. That’s a fewer number of overall losses than Kansas. As an underdog, the Friars are 8-1 against the spread. Creighton shot well against Kansas, at least from three, where it made 43%. I think Providence is capable of replicating that kind of long-range success. The Friars are 22-1 this season when making at least 30% or better from beyond the arc. Perfect trend alert: Providence is 8-0 ATS against teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Kansas averages 78.7. I think the Friars will hold the Jayhawks well below their season total, just as they did to South Dakota State and Richmond, both of whom shot under 36 percent. Take the points. | |||||||
03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
For the second year in a row, we’ve got ourselves a 15-seed in the Sweet 16. Last year was Oral Roberts. This year’s “Cinderella” is St. Peter’s, a team that finished the regular season second in the MAAC (behind Iona). Prior to last year, there had been just one 15-seed ever to make it to a regional semifinal. That was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013. The Peacocks have won and covered nine in a row. Their next test is a big one as they face Purdue on Friday. The third-seeded Boilermakers own wins over Yale and Texas so far. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country, ranking second in the country in efficiency and averaging 79.8 points per game. St. Peter’s is pretty good defensively, but they will have their chances offensively in this game as well. Purdue owns the second lowest defensive efficiency rating of the Sweet 16. For those reasons, I am on the Over in this one. St. Peter’s first two games went Over. The Over is 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog. Purdue games average 148.3 points. This is a low total for them. The last game was lower, but they were up against a Texas team that was among the nation’s leaders in scoring defense. That game went Over as the Boilermakers scored 81. | |||||||
03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 17 m | Show |
I think we’re about to see the end of a legendary coaching career as this should end up being Coach K’s final time on the bench when Duke faces Texas Tech. Even though they shot 57.1 percent from the field, the Blue Devils’ 85-76 win over Michigan State in the second round was a little misleading, at least when judged on the final score. Duke trailed with under three minutes to go before closing the game on a 13-2 run. The final four points all came at the free throw line, in the last 16 seconds, giving the Blue Devils the cover. Duke will not be shooting 57% against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are arguably the best defensive team in the country. They just held Duke’s ACC rival Notre Dame to 32.7% shooting in a 59-53 Round 2 victory. Texas Tech failed to cover that game as they were laying eight at the betting window. Here we do not need to really be concerned with the pointspread. By the way, the Red Raiders are 18-9 ATS this season when faced with a team that has a winning record. Duke’s defense has been lousy for about the last two months. Over the last six games, the only team that failed to hit 76 against them was first round opponent Cal State Fullerton. Texas Tech scored 97 in its first round game, so they are more than capable of making the Blue Devils pay at the defensive end. | |||||||
03-24-22 | Arkansas v. Gonzaga OVER 154.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 28 m | Show |
The first Sweet 16 game - which is between Arkansas and Gonzaga - should be a high scoring affair. These teams are a combined 0-4 ATS in this Tournament, though I’m sure neither cares about it. Gonzaga has actually had to come from behind to defeat both Georgia State and Memphis. Arkansas was in control most of the time vs. Vermont and New Mexico State, but won by a combined nine points. The last Arkansas game saw some truly woeful shooting - from both teams. The Razorbacks and NMSU combined to make only nine threes and shot roughly 30% for the game. With Gonzaga involved here, you know there’s going to be a sizable increase in offensive productivity. The Zags lead the country in scoring at 87.8 points per game. They’ve scored 93 and 82 in the two tournament wins thus far. Routinely, this team will shoot better than 50 percent from the floor. Arkansas had seen seven straight games go Over the total before facing New Mexico State. During that run, they scored 74 or more points six times. With the underdog Razorbacks due for an uptick an offense (after such a poor shooting night vs. NMSU) and favored Gonzaga being its usual self, expect this game to go Over the total. | |||||||
03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
Washington State and BYU meet in the NIT Quarterfinals on Wednesday, at Provo. BYU has advanced to this point with consecutive 90+ point performances over Long Beach State (93-72) and Northern Iowa (90-72). Both wins came here at home. Wazzu has gotten to this point mostly with defense, downing Santa Clara (another WCC team) 63-50 and then winning at SMU (which is not easy to do) 75-63. The Cougars were three-point underdogs for that second game. BYU has lost only two home games this season. One was obviously to Gonzaga, the other was to San Francisco, another NCAA Tournament team. Earlier I talked about BYU’s recent offensive output. Well, they also are allowing only 63.9 points per game at home. Washington State has played pretty well recently, but is 0-8 against NCAA Tournament teams. BYU is obviously not a NCAA Tournament team, but they were pretty close to being one; I’d say they were one of the top teams that did not get in. I like them as small home favorites. As for the Cougars, they are just 2-6 ATS off their last eight straight up wins. That was 1-6 ATS off their last seven before upsetting SMU three days ago. BYU has had one more day to get ready for this game. | |||||||
03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama OVER 141.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
So this is a second round matchup in the “The Basketball Classic.” USC Upstate won its first round game in upset fashion, defeating Appalachian State on the road, as a 10.5 point underdog. The final score was 80-74. South Alabama beat SE Louisiana 70-68, but could not cover the nine-point spread. South Alabama has some pretty solid defensive numbers, but I expect this to be a pretty high-scoring game. The Jaguars are overdue for a solid showing at the offensive end. After all, they do average 75.4 points at home. USC Upstate is not any kind of defensive force. But the underdog Spartans have scored 70 or more in five of their last six games, including each of the last four. It’s going to take plenty of points to outlast them. South Alabama ranks 140th in defensive efficiency, USC Upstate ranks 303rd. USC Upstate also likes to play pretty fast, which means there will be plenty of possessions in this game. They are also 12-4 Over on the road this year as well as 16-5 Over as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue Monday. | |||||||
03-20-22 | TCU v. Arizona OVER 143 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
Two teams coming off blowout wins meet in the second round with top seed Arizona facing off with 9-seed TCU. Of the two, TCU actually won by a larger margin. The Horned Frogs impressively defeated Seton Hall 69-42 as a 1.5 point underdog. Arizona didn’t even cover, despite winning by 17, as they were 21.5 point favorites over Wright State, who was in the “First Four.” The last six TCU games have all stayed Under the total. However, here they are up against an Arizona team that is not only 6-1 to the Over in its last seven games, but is also third in the country in scoring at 84.6 points per game. TCU will not hold Arizona to 28.8% shooting like it did to Seton Hall. The Wildcats are shooting 53.5% over their most recent five games. But the top seed probably can’t count on holding the underdog Horned Frogs to 34.8% like it did to Wright State on Friday. The Over has hit each of the previous six times Arizona has been off an ATS loss (which they are here). TCU is 5-0 Over the previous five times it has been off a game in which it allowed fewer than 50 points. Go with the Over in the final second round matchup of the weekend. | |||||||
03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Notre Dame has already had to win twice to get here and may very well be on fumes going into this second round matchup against Texas Tech. That’s problematic as this Red Raiders team is legit, as we saw in their complete dismantling of Montana State on Friday. I had TT in that one. They won 97-62 as a 15-point favorite. The result was never in doubt with the Red Raiders jumping out to a 18-4 lead less than five minutes in. They wound up shooting 66.7% for the game, the fourth highest percentage ever in the first round, and made 12 of 20 threes. Notre Dame is one of the weaker teams left in the field. Let’s not forget that it took TWO overtimes to get by Rutgers in the “First Four.” Then the Irish got hot themselves against Alabama, shooting 10 of 16 from three-point land. But Texas Tech is perhaps the top defensive team in the country. They are 1st in the defensive efficiency rankings over at KenPom. Look for them to shut down Notre Dame in this one. Don’t be concerned about the Red Raiders being unable to follow up an impressive offensive display. They are 4-0 ATS off the previous four games where they scored 90 or more points. | |||||||
03-20-22 | Houston -4.5 v. Illinois | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Illinois barely survived Chattanooga in the first round, not taking the lead until the final minute. But that’s when you want to have the lead and the Illini prevailed 54-53. It was certainly not an impressive performance and I think the Fighting Illini are in trouble here against 5-seed Houston. Houston made it to the Final Four last season. The Cougars began this year’s tourney run with a dominant 82-68 win over UAB. It’s now eight covers in the last nine games for Kelvin Sampson’s team, who is 30-5 on the year. Illinois was outrebounded by Chattanooga. That’s a terrible sign. So are the Illini’s offensive numbers from the L4 games, a stretch in which they’ve gone 0-4 against the spread. Three of those games have seen the team score 63 points or less and shoot worse than 40 percent from the field. They made only 3 of 17 three-point attempts against Chattanooga. Houston averages 76 points per game while giving up an average of just 59.1. They are one of only five teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is a championship contender. Illinois has failed to cover each of the last six times they’ve been off a straight up win. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-19-22 | Memphis +10.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
So, after a sluggish start, Gonzaga was finally able to pull away from 16-seed Georgia State in the first round. The Zags used a 24-1 second half run to put the game away, but still ended up not covering the large 22.5-point spread. (They won 93-72). Once again, in the second round vs. Memphis, I think the spread will prove to be too large. Memphis has been on a real roll down the stretch. They beat Boise State in the first round 64-53 and covered the three-point spread. The Tigers took control of that game pretty early and never were really threatened after that. They have now won 13 of their last 15 games. I don’t think Gonzaga can count on the wide shooting discrepancy that they enjoyed vs. Georgia State. They shot 50.7%, which isn’t that atypical, but Georgia State shot just 32.9%. Memphis actually did a better job defensively against Boise State, holding the Broncos to 31.5%. The defensive improvement we’ve seen from the Tigers, since Penny Hardaway’s infamous press conference in late January, has been substantial. The most points they’ve given up in a game since February is 74. Only three times have they allowed more than 70. The Tigers are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 tries as an underdog. Grab the points here. | |||||||
03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee OVER 135.5 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
Michigan won by double digits on Thursday, but it was by no means easy against Colorado State. The Wolverines got off to a poor start and trailed in the first half by as many as 12 points. But a stunning turnaround after halftime resulted in a 75-63 win for the Maize and Blue. The Wolverines probably can’t count on their second round opponent shooting 35.4% from the field. That’s what Colorado State did and it was even worse in the second half when the Rams scored just 27 points. Tennessee shot 60% and scored 88 points in its first round matchup with Longwood. Now Michigan won’t be as overmatched as Longwood was, but the Wolverines usually aren’t that great defensively either. They are in fact just 77th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Volunteers streak of holding teams under 40% shooting probably comes to an end here, however. Nine of their last ten opponents have shot 39.6% or less. Michigan shoots well, is 19th in offensive efficiency, and will make more threes here than they did in the first round game (4). The Over has cashed the previous four times that Michigan has been an underdog. Make it five straight. | |||||||
03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova -15 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 90 h 36 m | Show |
Villanova should really smash Delaware here. The Blue Hens made a surprise run through the Colonial Tournament as the 5-seed. Now they are facing the Big East Tournament Champs and one of the best teams in the country. This isn’t exactly a Saturday vs. Northeastern. ‘Nova is 10-1 its last 11 games and that one loss was by two points. They are probably going to make a deep run in this Tournament. Late in the game, when it comes to covering this spread, it is nice that the Wildcats are the #1 team in the country when it comes to making free throws. Delaware has never won an NCAA Tournament in five previous tries. They are also 0-15 all-time against Villanova. They had lost three straight games entering the CAA Tournament. Since 2014, Jay Wright’s Wildcats have five wins by 20 or more points as a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament. On offense, ‘Nova will overwhelm the Delaware. Defensively, the Wildcats allow just 63.1 points per game. | |||||||
03-18-22 | Montana State v. Texas Tech -15 | Top | 62-97 | Win | 100 | 89 h 31 m | Show |
Look for Texas Tech to have no trouble beating Montana State on Friday. This 3 vs. 14 matchup is a total mismatch. Texas Tech is #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency. This will serve them well. Montana State normally shoots well, but there’s a big difference in going from facing your typical team out of the Big Sky to the one the Bobcats will face here. Though Montana State was regular season and conference tournament champs out of the Big Sky, this is their first NCAA Tourney appearance since 1996. Texas Tech, who made the Big 12 Final against Kansas, is a regular in this event. They played for the National Championship, under Chris Beard, in 2019. The Red Raiders beat every single Big 12 team at least once this year and had two wins over Baylor, a 1-seed. They are also 8-1 ATS off their last nine straight up losses. Montana State simply will not be able to shoot the three as well as they normally do here. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-18-22 | Jacksonville State v. Auburn OVER 137.5 | Top | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Second seeded Auburn looks to avoid the same fate that befell its SEC brethren Kentucky (a fellow 2-seed) on Friday. The Tigers should certainly avoid the upset against Jacksonville State here as the Gamecocks did not even win their Conference Tournament! Instead, they got the Atlantic Sun’s automatic berth because they were regular season champs and the conference tourney champs (Bellarmine) were ineligible for the Big Dance! But I don’t think I can trust Auburn minus all these points here. The Tigers have failed to cover five of the last six games, and despite bagging their first regular season SEC title since 1999, they were “one and done” in the conference tourney, losing to a Texas A&M team that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. So let’s look at the total. Auburn averages 78.7 points per game and should have no problems getting to the basket in this matchup. Jacksonville State shoots 47.2% overall as a team and made 40% of its threes in conference play. Am I confident they’ll hit those percentages today? Not really. But they’ll score enough! Auburn is 9-2 Over its last 11 neutral court games where the total is 135 to 139.5. That’s the way I think this one is headed. | |||||||
03-17-22 | Creighton v. San Diego State UNDER 120 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
A low total here, but rightly so. San Diego State has the second most efficient defense in the country and allows 57.7 points per game. Not to be outdone, their opponents for Thursday, Creighton, give up only 65.9 points per game. Creighton made a run all the way to the Big East Tournament Final, solidifying its place in the field of 68. Along the way, they held top seed Providence to only 58 points. The Bluejays may have lost the final, but that was a 54-48 game vs. Villanova, precisely the kind of score we’re looking for today. San Diego State’s last three games have seen 99, 121 and 105 total points scored. All three went Under. The Aztecs don’t score a ton. We’re talking about only a 61.3 point average when playing away from home. The Under hit in all five SDSU games on a neutral court during the regular season. Two teams holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year should lead to a “rock fight.” Take the Under | |||||||
03-17-22 | New Mexico State +6.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
There have been only five years where a 12-seed has never beaten a 5 in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen in this Tournament, so why not take the points here with New Mexico State, a team that is 26-6 on the year? The Aggies have been to the NCAA Tournament before. They made it three straight years from 2017-19. Incredibly, they have lost 11 consecutive first round games, going back to the mid-90s. Eventually, a team is due. This team is better than most previous editions. UConn has not been good at covering games. They are only 3-11 ATS in their previous 14. During that time, they have only four wins by more than seven points. The Huskies have also not won a NCAA Tourney game since 2016. New Mexico State has wins over Davidson, Washington State, Cal Irvine and UTEP. So I don’t expect them to be intimidated at all. Their record as an underdog is a perfect 4-0 against the spread. I have to take the points here in what should be a close matchup throughout. | |||||||
03-17-22 | South Dakota State v. Providence -2 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 63 h 27 m | Show |
Providence is much maligned as a four seed as they won a lot of close games and thus probably are not as good as their overall record. But the Friars are being WAY undervalued for their first round matchup vs. 13-seed South Dakota State, a team that plays little in the way of defense. The underdog Jackrabbits rank 223rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That is second worst among ALL tournament teams. Not that a team needs any added motivation to win in March Madness, but the way Providence exited the Big East Tournament - an 85-58 loss to Creighton - should have them ready to go here. This is tied for the shortest spread ever in a 4 vs. 13 matchup. The Friars will take it as a sign of disrespect. While South Dakota State has not lost a game since Dec 15, the conference that they play in (Summit) is weak. The Jackrabbits live and die by the three, so thankfully Providence can hang its hat on the fact they are allowing just 31.2 percent shooting from long range. Lay the short number. | |||||||
03-16-22 | Bryant v. Wright State OVER 154.5 | Top | 82-93 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
Neither of these two 16-seeds in the First Four are very good defensively. In fact, in terms of points allowed per possession, they are two of the three worst in the tournament. Throw in the fact that one of them (Bryant) plays at the seventh fastest tempo in the country and you’ve got the recipe for an Over. Wright State has three players averaging at least 14.3 points per game - Holden, Basile and Calvin. As a team, the Raiders put up 75.5 points per game. Six of their last eight games have gone Over, including both wins in the Horizon League Tournament. Bryant has the nation’s top scorer, Peter Kiss, who averages 25.1 points per game. As a team, the Bulldogs put up 77.9. They’ve won 16 of 17 overall and are a hot team. The problem for Bryant is that when they leave home, they give up an average of 79.2 points. They allowed 111 at Houston! In the eight games where they were a ‘dog, the Bulldogs allowed 81.3 points per game. Seven of the last eight games where Wright State was up against a team that came in averaging at least 77 points, the game went Over. Batten down the hatches for a high-scoring game Wednesday. | |||||||
03-15-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Texas Southern UNDER 136.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
So our first 16 vs 16 seed in the “First Four” pits Texas Southern, tournament champions from the SWAC, against Texas A&M-CC, tournament champions of the Southland. I expect this to be a pretty low-scoring game. Start with the neutral court setting. Texas A&M-CC played eight such games during the regular season and those averaged 138 total PPG, well below what the Islanders averaged home or away. All three Southland Tourney games stayed Under. Texas Southern played just three neutral court games this season, all in the SWAC Tourney, and two of those stayed Under. The one that didn’t was the Final, an 87-62 win over Alcorn State where the Tigers shot 55.7%. They won’t shoot that well on Tuesday. Count on the Tigers playing sound defense. For the year, they are allowing a FG% of only 39.6. That’s top 22 in the country. They need to play that kind of defense because no one on the team averaged double figures in scoring during the regular season. This is just the second all-time NCAA Tourney appearance for Texas A&M-CC and first since 2006-07. I expect them to struggle to make shots. Texas Southern has been in the “First Four” two times previously with those games averaging just 111 PPG. Go with the Under in this one. | |||||||
03-13-22 | Richmond v. Davidson -3.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Davidson, win or lose today, is probably safe when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. However, that doesn’t mean the A-10 regular season champs and top seed won’t be motivated to defeat Richmond on Sunday. I’m laying the points as fatigue is probably going to be a factor for the underdog here. Richmond will be playing its fourth game in as many days. Going back to Thursday, the Spiders rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to get past Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve upset the #3 (VCU) and #2 (Dayton) in this tournament. It’s a big ask for them to now take out Davidson, who has been the best team in the conference this season. Davidson has only had to win two games to get here and wasn’t really challenged in either. The Wildcats were 18-point winners over Fordham in the quarterfinal round, then 15-point winners over St. Louis in the semis. In both games, they jumped out to big leads by halftime and never looked back. Richmond was again down at the half in yesterday’s game vs. Dayton. In fact, they were down as many as 14 in the second half, with just over 13 minutes remaining. The Spiders did not take the lead for good until less than two minutes remained. Davidson is the better team and has had the easier path to get here. They won at Richmond, 87-84, in the only regular season matchup. I believe Richmond’s defense will crack here against a Davidson offense that is Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency. | |||||||
03-12-22 | Creighton v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 48-54 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Creighton turned in an incredible performance yesterday in its semifinal win over Providence. They won 85-58. It was the largest loss for a #1 seed in Big East Tournament history. Providence couldn’t make anything, going 3 of 24 from three and shooting just 30% overall. I think it’s important to note that Providence seemed to be overrated and to remember that - with no starters back from last year’s Sweet 16 team - Creighton was picked to finish eighth in the Big East this year. Thanks to yesterday, their 9th win in the last 11 games, the Bluejays are all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament. Thus, the motivation may not be there on Saturday against Villanova, a supremely talented team that is the best in the Big East. ‘Nova beat UConn Friday, 63-60, avenging its last loss. Speaking of avenging losses, that’s precisely what the Wildcats did against Creighton the last time the teams met. After Creighton took the first meeting, ‘Nova bounced back with a 34-point win on January 5th. Villanova is simply the much better team at the offensive end, where it ranks 8th nationally in efficiency. Creighton is 0-3 all-time in Big East Tournament Finals. They can’t possibly play any better than they did yesterday nor can they count on Villanova shooting as poorly as Providence did. As for the Wildcats, they managed to still win last night despite not making a single field goal in the final five minutes. The favorite doesn’t turn it over and is one of the best free throw shooting teams in NCAA history. | |||||||
03-12-22 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
The big shocker in the SEC yesterday was Texas A&M upsetting top seed Auburn, 67-62. The Aggies, as 9-point underdogs, led most of the way and were up by as many as 20! That win greatly improved their NCAA Tournament chances, though another win today may be needed. Arkansas is in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, but winning the SEC Championship would be nice. It was an impressive 79-67 win for the Hogs over LSU on Friday, improving their record to 15-2 SU since Jan 8. They have also gone 14-2-1 ATS in that same stretch. Both regular season meetings between A&M and Arkansas were closely contested. Each team won at home, A&M by five and Arkansas by three. I just don’t think A&M is capable of playing any better than it did yesterday when it made 50% from three at the same time Auburn shot just 30% overall. The Razorbacks are pretty clearly the better team here and A&M is playing its third game in three days. One of those games saw the Aggies go to overtime. So their tank could be close to empty by the second half today. Arkansas built itself a nice double digit lead in the second half yesterday and thus fatigue should not be a factor at all for them. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -2 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
I don’t think you can undersell the importance of the rest advantage here for Wisconsin, in a tough tournament like the Big 10. Michigan State played last night and was taken down to the wire by Maryland, grinding out a 76-72 win. It shouldn’t have ended up that close for Sparty, who had a 20-point lead over the Terps. Don’t look for MSU to shoot as well here as they did last night when they made 50% overall and 47.4% from three. Wisconsin should be very eager to take the court tonight after they shockingly lost the home finale, to Nebraska, as 13-point favorites. The Badgers basically trailed the entire way in that game against the last place team in the Big 10. But at no point this season have the Badgers lost two in a row. They have won a lot of close games. But looking at the number, the possibility of a SU win/ATS loss here is very minimal. Michigan State has lost 7 of its last 11 games. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Nicholls State -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Nicholls State is the top seed here in the Southland Tournament and received a double-bye into today’s semifinals. They face Texas A&M-CC, who defeated Houston Baptist by a score of 75-60 yesterday. Texas A&M-CC covered the 5.5-point spot in that game. Texas A&M-CC has won five of its last six games. But the one loss did come to Nicholls, 86-75 at home. They were swept in the season series, also losing at Nicholls by three. Nicholls has now won the last four head to head meetings and six of the last seven. Going back to January 27th, Nicholls has lost only two games, both to SE Louisiana, who they very well could end up seeing in tomorrow’s final. The Colonels come in averaging 79.6 points per game, tied for 15th in the country, and have exceeded 80 points in seven consecutive games. In the two regular season games vs. Texas A&M-CC, Nicholls scored 83 and 86 points. The Colonels are the best team in the Southland and I just can’t see them being upset here. Not with a rest advantage. Lay the short number. | |||||||
03-11-22 | LSU v. Arkansas OVER 138.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
The second SEC quarterfinal pits LSU (the 5-seed) against #16 Arkansas (the 4-seed). LSU won yesterday, 76-68 as an 11-point favorite over Missouri. Arkansas had a bye. The Razorbacks won’t be too upset to see the Tigers in this quarterfinal matchup. They swept the season series, winning 65-58 at Baton Rouge in January and then 77-76 in Fayetteville last week. In terms of the number of points scored, I look for this “rubber match” to be more in line with that more recent meeting. LSU has scored 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Arkansas has scored 74 or more in five of its last six. The thing about that last meeting ending up so high scoring is that neither team shot well from three. They combined to miss 38 of 49 attempts from behind the arc. Expect a lot better long-distance shooting on Thursday afternoon. LSU didn’t cover yesterday. They are 7-1 Over off an ATS loss. | |||||||
03-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Northern Colorado -2 | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Northern Colorado faces Eastern Washington in the 3-6 matchup of the Big Sky Tournament. Eastern Washington played yesterday, beating Northern Arizona 78-75. Northern Colorado had a bye, so they have a distinct advantage that is seemingly not being accounted for (enough) by the oddsmakers. Eastern Washington has won its last three games, but two of those were against Northern Arizona, who finished last in the Big Sky. Last night’s first round matchup saw the need for a late 9-0 run to take the lead. I just don’t think the Eagles will have much left in the tank for tonight. Northern Colorado has been off since Saturday’s two point loss at Montana State. A sour taste in their mouth (from losing the last regular season game) will have the Bears highly motivated coming into this one. Each team won on the other’s court this year, so it was a split of the two regular season meetings. Northern Colorado was a two-point favorite on the road and six point favorite at home, so I feel we are getting a discount (for whatever reason) here. Northern Colorado has not dropped back to back games in over a month, a stretch of 11 games. I’ll roll with them. | |||||||
03-10-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Long Beach State won the Big West this year with a 12-3 conference record. They finished 18-11 overall. Despite this, the Beach is just a short favorite for its quarterfinal game against a Cal State Bakersfield team that won just two conference games all season! What? CS-Bakersfield also had to win a game to get here. They advanced out of the first round by defeating Cal State Northridge on Tuesday, 58-45 as a six-point favorite. Even with the day in between games, I don’t see the Roadrunners having much of a chance today. They lost by nine at LBSU in the lone regular season matchup. LBSU has lost only two games in the previous two months. While they are a bit of a shaky #1 seed, they are clearly better than the #9 seed in this tournament. Coming into the Big West Tournament, CS-Bakersfield had just one win in its last 13 games! They are 6-16 ATS in lined games this season! Just can’t make sense of this number from the oddsmakers; the top seed is being “disrespected” and I’ll play accordingly. | |||||||
03-10-22 | TCU v. Texas OVER 125.5 | Top | 65-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Texas has one of the top scoring defenses in the entire country (just 59.6 PPG allowed), but I expect this game with TCU to be higher scoring than expected. The Longhorns give up a lot more points when they’re outside of Austin. For the record, the Big 12 Tournament takes place in Kansas City. Just to illustrate, when they’re at home, Texas gives up only 52.8 points per game. When they are outside of Austin, they give up 69.9 PPG. That is a big difference! Both times Texas and TCU played in the regular season, the game went Over the total. The second time, there were 141 total points scored. TCU shot abnormally well in that one, but Texas also missed 13 of 14 three-pointers. Whatever shot regression we see here from the Horned Frogs will be made up by the Longhorns being better from behind the arc. Seven of Texas’ last eight games would have gone Over today’s total. The last five have averaged 136.4 PPG. TCU is 3-0 Over in neutral court games this season. They are also 8-2 to the Over when the total is 120 to 129.5. | |||||||
03-09-22 | Navy v. Colgate -6.5 | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Only one NCAA Tournament berth will be handed out today and it goes to the winner of the Patriot League Final between Navy and Colgate. These are the top two seeds, but Colgate has pretty clearly been the class of the league throughout the season. On their home floor, I expect the Raiders to win comfortably and move on. The respective paths these teams took to get to this Final illustrates the gap that exists between them. Colgate has rolled over Bucknell (96-68) and Lehigh (91-61) while Navy squeaked by American U (71-64) and needed overtime to beat Boston U (85-80). This game is being played in Colgate’s gym where they are 14-1 SU this season and 38-4 SU the last three seasons. So it’s a really big deal. When at home, the Raiders are outscoring their opponents by almost 17 points per game. Colgate swept the two regular season meetings vs. Navy. At home, they won by only five. But they won the game in Annapolis by 19. It’s 14 straight wins for Colgate coming into tonight. Only one has been by less than seven points. | |||||||
03-09-22 | Binghamton v. Vermont UNDER 136 | Top | 42-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Vermont is the clear class of the America East. That’s why they are 20+ point favorites in the semifinals of the tournament. While I expect the Catamounts to win here, that price is too high. Expect it to be a low-scoring game against Binghamton Wednesday night. The ol’ Binghamton Bearcats were not even expected to get this far, but they upset the 3-seed, New Hampshire, in the first round of the tourney. They were 7.5-point underdogs and won 72-69. But it has been a LONG time since Binghamton beat Vermont. The most points they’ve scored in any of the L10 meetings is 63. In two losses to Vermont this year, Binghamton averaged just 50 points. Both games stayed Under. Binghamton shot around 35% overall in the two games and was a combined 9 of 45 from three. Though Vermont put up 98 in its first round win over NJIT, that’s not a number you should expect here. In six of the previous seven games, the Catamounts did not top 76. They are averaging 74.7 PPG this year. But the key for Vermont is that they’ve held the last six opponents all to 61 points or less. I already talked about what they did to Binghamton in the two regular season meetings. The underdog just isn’t going to score many points here, so the favorite won’t have to go all out offensively either. Take the Under | |||||||
03-09-22 | St. Joe's -2 v. La Salle | Top | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
It’s going to be a “tough mountain” to climb for LaSalle and St. Joe’s, who have to play in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tourney. Both face the prospect of having to win five times in five days just to make the NCAA Tournament. That’s not going to happen, but one team will win today and I think that’s going to be the short favorite. Consider that St. Joe’s is playing with double revenge. Yes, they lost twice to LaSalle in the regular season. The more recent loss came exactly a week ago, on the road and by a single point. At the time, that was the Hawks’ seventh straight defeat, but five of them were by six points or less and three by two points or less. Thankfully, the regular season ended on a positive note with St. Joe’s defeating Rhode Island 70-60. With the losing streak now over, they can concentrate on exacting some revenge. LaSalle has won three in a row, which is very rare as it is tied for their longest win streak of the year. Two of those three wins have been by two points or less. The Explorers were just 2-13 in A-10 games. I think this is a wonderful time to fade them, especially at this price. St. Joe’s is the better team here and I find it hard to believe anybody could lose to LaSalle three times in the same season. | |||||||
03-08-22 | Southern Miss v. Texas-San Antonio -3 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
UTSA and Southern Miss face a tough path in the Conference USA Tournament. Both face the task of having to win five times this week. That’s not going to happen for either team. But I do really like UTSA to win this first round game. The Roadrunners aren’t particularly great, but they did win their last game (82-71 over Rice) and are facing an opponent that hasn’t won in nearly two months. The last time Southern Miss did win (1/19), it was against a non-DI foe. The last time the Golden Eagles defeated a Division I opponent was Jan 6 - UTSA. It was a one-point victory, 74-73. UTSA avenged that loss with a 19-point win at Hattiesburg one month later. They are now 4-1 SU/ATS vs. Southern Miss the previous three seasons. Southern Miss is very bad. They are 6-25 overall and 1-17 in conference play. The average loss came by nearly 15 PPG when facing a team from C-USA. During their current 12-game losing streak, 10 losses have come by double digits. This is a steal having to lay so few points against Southern Miss. UTSA has already proven that they can blow this team out. They will again. | |||||||
03-08-22 | Georgia Tech +1.5 v. Louisville | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The bottom six take part in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Here, it’s the #11 seed Louisville taking on #14 Georgia Tech. The teams met once in the regular season. Louisville won 67-64 as a three-point favorite. Since that win, the bottom dropped out of Louisville's season. They fired head coach Chris Mack and ended the regular season on a poor 4-13 ATS run. They won just two of those games straight up. So I’m siding with the Yellow Jackets here. They’ve got a bit more momentum, having covered five of the last six games and beating Boston College in the regular season finale. Playing for a lame-duck interim coach is no way to enter a conference tournament. That’s the reality for Louisville right now. The Cardinals shoot just 28% from three away from home and average 63.9 points. They’ve also turned the ball over 54 times in the last four games and allowed opponents to shoot a ridiculous percentage from three in the last three games. | |||||||
03-07-22 | Wright State v. Cleveland State | Top | 82-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Despite being regular season champs in the Horizon League, Cleveland State isn’t getting much respect in this semifinal matchup with 4-seed Wright State. The quarterfinals of this tournament saw all top four seeds win in the quarterfinals after they each received a first round bye. The top-seeded Vikings are 20-9 on the year. They ousted Robert Morris 83-67 in the quarterfinals, a game in which they had the home court advantage. Tonight’s game takes place in Indianapolis, a neutral setting. The Vikings actually haven’t played a neutral court game all season. Thursday’s win against Robert Morris was marred by issues with the scoreboard, but CSU got 25 points from Torrey Patton, which matched a season-high. The Vikings shot well (54.2%) and defended the three-point line better than RMU. They forced 20 turnovers. Wright State found itself down eight at the half against Oakland in its quarterfinal matchup. They too got to play at home. It was a 20-0 run that turned the tide. The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in neutral site games this year though and are unlikely to go on a run like that against a better team like Cleveland State. Cleveland State won both regular season meetings, 85-75 at home and 71-67 away. They are the better team here and won the Horizon League Tourney last season. I see no reason why they won’t defeat Wright State again. | |||||||
03-06-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra OVER 159 | Top | 92-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Five straight Charleston games have gone Over the total. The last one was against Hofstra, who they’ll face again here in the quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. I expect the Over trend to continue. Last Monday it was an 89-84 Hofstra win. The teams entered that game knowing they would be facing each other again in the Tournament, The key for Hofstra is always forcing turnovers. They forced 28 on Monday, a season-high. While they may not force that many again today, Charleston does tend to be rather careless with the basketball on a regular basis, ranking 295th in turnover rate. Charleston also plays at the fastest tempo in the country, so this game will have plenty of possessions. Over their previous five games, Charleston is averaging 84.4 points on 54.1% shooting. Save for a head-scratcher against Elon, Hofstra has been scoring plenty themselves. They’ve topped 75 in six of their last seven games. This should be a really high scoring game. The Over is 17-4 in Charleston’s last 21 games as an underdog. Take the OVER | |||||||
03-06-22 | Houston v. Memphis +2.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
This is an important game for Memphis, despite having won three in a row. The Tigers are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and can still earn the second seed for next week’s American Conference Tournament. They are also looking to make it a season sweep over Houston. That would be quite the accomplishment. Back on February 12th, the Tigers ended the Cougars’ 37-game home win streak with a 69-59 victory. That was a season-low in points for Houston and they committed a season-high 19 turnovers. Memphis has won 9 of its last 10 overall, the one loss coming at SMU. They’ve also covered five straight times against Houston. I really like the spot for the short home underdog here. Houston is playing its fourth game in eight days (“tough” says coach Kelvin Sampson) and is lacking depth because of injuries. Considering that the Cougars have already locked up the regular season title, they may not be treating this game all that seriously. Memphis has covered 11 of the past 13 times it has been an underdog. Grab the points. | |||||||
03-05-22 | UNLV -3.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
UNLV played New Mexico in January and won 85-56. The Runnin’ Rebels don’t need to win by even half that margin tonight in Albuquerque. I’ll lay the points. UNLV already knows it will be 5th in the Conference Tournament. That means they avoid playing in the first round. But they will face Wyoming in the quarterfinals. They just beat the Cowboys by seven on Wednesday. New Mexico will be the nine seed, so they are in the first round and matched up with Nevada. The Lobos have lost four of five and just fell at Fresno State earlier in the week. They did at least cover the spread as 10-point underdogs. UNLV has won the last seven head to head meetings. I say you can make it eight after tonight. The Rebels have lost only one game that they have been favored in all season. This number is short. Lay it. | |||||||
03-05-22 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Bryant -6 | Top | 69-70 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Bryant is the #1 seed in the NEC Tournament, having earned that distinction by defeating Wagner in the final regular season game. They won their quarterfinal game pretty handily, though not by as much as the oddsmakers expected. It was a 73-59 win over Central Connecticut State on Wednesday. Mount St. Mary’s is the 4-seed and beat St. Francis 78-48 to get here. That was a very impressive win for last year’s NEC Tourney champs as they were only seven-point favorites. Still, with Bryant having homecourt advantage for this one, the line looks low. Mount St. Mary’s has a 14-15 straight up record on the year and is 0-2 against Bryant, although one of the games was decided by just a single point. The key though is Bryant’s 12-1 home record. This is a team that has lost just one time since Jan 6th. The Bulldogs are averaging 82.4 points in conference play while giving up just 73.3. MSM played a great game Wednesday, but had lost five of seven before that and only averages 61.7 PPG on the road. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-05-22 | Middle Tennessee +2.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion wrap up their regular seasons in Norfolk this afternoon. Both know where they’ll be seeded in the Conference USA Tournament. MTSU won the East Division and thus will get a bye into the quarterfinals. ODU finished fifth in the East and will be playing UTEP in a second round matchup. With nothing really on the line here, you may be wondering why we’re playing this matchup. Well, Middle Tennessee has quietly had a VERY good year. The Blue Raiders are not just 22-8 straight up, but 21-6 against the spread. They are clearly the top threat to West Division Champ North Texas, who is the favorite heading into the C-USA Tournament. The Blue Raiders beat Old Dominion by 15 when they hosted in Murfreesboro last month. It wasn’t a good shooting night for them, but they played great defense and limited the Monarchs to just 48 points and two made three-pointers. MTSU is also coming off a rare loss, which is why I’m on them here. They fell 60-56 in Charlotte on Wednesday. Before that, the Blue Raiders had won eight in a row straight up and covered seven straight games. ODU is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games and is pretty outclassed here. Not sure why they’re favored. | |||||||
03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU OVER 152 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
These are two teams desperate for a win. Alabama is only 3-13 ATS in SEC play and just lost outright, by 16, as a 10-point home favorite to Texas A&M. That same night, LSU came up a point short against Arkansas. They at least covered, which was their third straight win at the pay window. Both teams are considered safe for the NCAA Tournament. Neither can earn a top four spot in the SEC Tournament, but today’s result will affect seeding. Expect a high-scoring game with Alabama involved. Despite shooting only 31.3% from three, the Crimson Tide is averaging 80.2 points/game this year. The problem is - when they get out on the road - they give up 80.5 points per game. LSU has scored 75 or more in four of its last five contests. The Tigers lost the first meeting with Alabama, 70-67 in Tuscaloosa, but attempted only 15 free throws and made just nine. At home, they’ll get more chances from the charity stripe here. Alabama is a perfect 6-0 Over as an underdog this season. | |||||||
03-04-22 | Bradley v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 130.5 | Top | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Incredibly, Loyola Chicago slipped to the 4-seed for the Missouri Valley Tournament. The Ramblers had a chance to win the conference outright, but lost on the final day of the regular season, 102-96 to Northern Iowa in overtime, then fell victim to tiebreakers. I think they should still be considered the favorite to win this particular tourney. In the quarterfinals, they’ll face Bradley, who is the 5-seed. Neither team had to win to get here. Bradley finished the regular season at 17-13 SU overall, 11-7 in conference play. Loyola was 22-7 SU overall, 13-5 in conference play. The two regular season meetings were both won by the home team. Loyola won 78-71 in its gym, only for Bradley to return the favor in a much lower-scoring game, 68-61. It will be interesting to see how things play out here in St. Louis. This seems like a low total. Not saying that just because of how high-scoring Loyola’s last game was (and it was 85-85 at the end of regulation). But both of these squads’ games have averaged just over 136 points over the course of the whole season. Loyola shoots nearly 39% from three and is 13-4 Over this year when the total falls between 130 and 139.5. They have topped 80 in regulation each of the last two games. Bradley should score enough here as well; they’ve gone Over six of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog. | |||||||
03-03-22 | California v. Arizona State UNDER 126 | Top | 44-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Two of the more downtrodden teams in the Pac 12 meet here with California and Arizona State both trying to create some momentum before the conference tournament. The Golden Bears enter off an ugly 53-39 win over Stanford, which improved their record to 12-17 overall and 5-13 in conference play. The Sun Devils have won two in a row, beating Colorado and Utah on the road. Going back a bit more, ASU has won five of its last six. They are now 12-16 overall, but 8-10 in Pac 12 play, so they are still in the mix for a decent seed. That’s unlike Cal, who will be a bottom three seed in the tournament. This promises to be a very low-scoring game. Just look at the score from Cal’s last game. They only allowed 39 points! Problem is, they’ve scored less than 60 themselves in back to back contests. Well, that’s not a problem when you’re taking the Under! Over it’s last six games, Arizona State has allowed an average of only 59.5 points per game. The Under is 6-0 when ASU is a favorite this year and 10-3 in all of their home games. | |||||||
03-03-22 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. South Alabama -12 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
South Alabama is seeded fifth, but the Jaguars just might be the best team in the Sun Belt. They absolutely could make a run in this tournament. It starts on Thursday when they play a first round matchup against last place Little Rock. Expect this one to be a blowout. Little Rock obviously did not have a good year. The Trojans finished 8-18 overall and 3-13 in conference play. They were even worse than the oddsmakers though, evident by a lousy 5-16 ATS record as an underdog. On the road, they were beaten by an average of 16.3 points per game. The regular season ended very poorly for Little Rock. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 10. Eight of those nine losses were by double digits. Six were by at least 15 points. These teams met once in the regular season. South Alabama won 77-46 as a 14.5 point favorite. Down 17 at halftime, Little Rock was never competitive. USA won its regular season finale, beating UT Arlington 62-52 last Friday. Look for them to make a statement in the opening game of this tourney. | |||||||
03-02-22 | Miami-FL -4 v. Boston College | Top | 81-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Miami is currently on the right side of the bubble, but they need a strong final week of the regular season. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games, both losses at home, to fall into fourth place in the ACC. Tonight looks like a great chance to get back on track as the Canes travel to face Boston College. Note that they have won three in a row on the road. The last road win was by 21 at Pittsburgh, a team who has a comparable record to BC. Miami has too much offense for their hosts today. The visitors are 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh best in turnover rate. They average 74.7 points per game. BC has lost six of eight and just went down by 10 to Clemson here at home on Saturday. It was the Eagles’ seventh loss by double digits since Jan 19th. Miami has been good on the road. They are 8-2 straight up and against the spread. So lay the small number. | |||||||
03-02-22 | North Carolina A&T v. Radford UNDER 131 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
The first of four first round games in the Big South Tournament today pits North Carolina A&T against Radford. These teams are seeded 8th (Radford) and 9th (NC A&T). The winner will move on to face top seed Longwood in the quarterfinals on Friday. This entire tournament is played in Charlotte. There was no home court advantage when these teams met twice in the regular season as the road team won both games. NC A&T and Radford are no strangers to one another as they just played in the regular season finale on Saturday, with Radford winning 63-52. The teams combined to shoot 7 of 36 on three-pointers. They were 40 of 108 overall, which is very bad. It was a far cry from the first meeting when the teams combined to make 15 of 37 three-pointers and NC A&T shot 56% overall. It was an easy Under on Saturday as the total was roughly the same as it is here. Radford is 6-1 to the Under in its last seven games against sub-.500 teams. NC A&T is 4-0 Under this season following a game where they failed to score more than 60 points. The Highlanders are also 4-0 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 11. Take the Under this morning. | |||||||
03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | Top | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Arizona and USC are set to tangle here in a battle of Top 25 teams out of the Pac 12. Arizona stayed ranked #2 (in the country) despite losing Saturday. It was only their third loss of the season and most of the teams in the Top 10 also lost. USC is up to #16 after winning its last six games, the last three being decided by a total of just SIX points. You should expect this game to see a lot of scoring. Arizona plays at the sixth fastest tempo in the country and also averages 84.4 points per game, third most in the country. USC is averaging 76.6 points per game here at home. With Arizona having just scored only 63 points (on 39.2% shooting) in the loss to Colorado on Saturday, it’s quite reasonable to expect them to have a bounce back game at the offensive end. They are looking to clinch the Pac 12 regular season title. The 63 points in the last game represented their low benchmark for February. USC did not shoot well the first time they faced Arizona, making just 34.3% of their shots. They were really bad from three. But they’ll shoot better at home. They should also look to go inside as Arizona just gave up 54 points in the paint to Colorado. Like Arizona, USC is one of the taller teams in the country. Take the Over in this one. | |||||||
03-01-22 | American v. Holy Cross -2 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a first round matchup in the Patriot League Tournament where all games are played at campus sites (higher seed always gets to host). Both American U and Holy Cross finished with the same overall record (9-21 SU), but the latter did better in conference play, finishing 7-11 as opposed to 5-13 for the former. Playing at home is key here for Holy Cross, even though they last won here on February 9th. It’s just a small number we have to lay and the Crusaders have double revenge. That’s right. Two of American’s five league wins came against HC. I just can’t see the underdog sweeping the season series. Holy Cross averaged just 51.5 points per game in the two regular season losses. I expect much better from them offensively here tonight. American U won its final regular season game, beating Loyola MD 65-55. However, the Eagles have failed to win back to back games going all the way back to mid-December. I just think the odds are against them winning here. For what it’s worth, Holy Cross has covered the spread in 14 of its last 17 games played on Tuesday. | |||||||
03-01-22 | Providence +10 v. Villanova | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Providence has already wrapped up the Big East, the first time it has EVER won the conference outright. But there is still a sense of motivation for this one as they look to avoid a season sweep against Villanova. I think that most would agree that ‘Nova is in fact the better team here. The “analytics” don’t love Providence, mostly because of all the close wins the Friars have. But that has led to them getting a lot of points tonight. It’s too many. We’ll take a close loss! To be clear, Providence is 24-3 this year. They lost the first meeting with Villanova by just five points. They are not just 7-1 ATS as an underdog, but also 7-1 straight up! This is a lot of points for the #8 ranked team in the country to be getting. Though it’s their final home game and they haven’t played in a week, ‘Nova doesn’t have much motivation here. At least not to win by a double digit margin. They lost to UConn by two last Tuesday. Three of the previous four meetings have been decided by five points or less. So take the points. | |||||||
02-28-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Hofstra seems locked into third place in the CAA and very well could be taking on tonight’s opponent, Charleston, in the first round of the Conference Tournament. So there’s really nothing on the line in this Monday matchup. But, in their final home game, I look for the Pride to turn in a solid effort to end the regular season. Charleston has been competitive of late, covering the number in four straight games. But they lost Saturday, 80-79 at Drexel, to fall a game below .500 this year in conference play. Tonight will mark the Cougars’ fourth consecutive game on the road. That’s a tough way to end the regular season and the team may very well be “out of gas.” As for Hofstra, this is their fourth straight time playing at home. They had no problem dispatching William & Mary on Saturday, winning that game 83-67. That followed a shocking 81-55 loss to Elon. The Pride have failed to cover the number three straight times, but were also double digit favorites in all those games. This is a solid value, I believe, on Hofstra at home. They are 11-2 SU in home games this season. Also, they defeated Charleston on the road, back in late January. Key to this one is that Charleston is a poor defensive team that has given up an average of 82 points over its last four games. Hofstra has scored 76 or more in five of its last six. Lay the points. | |||||||
02-27-22 | St. John's v. DePaul +2 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
DePaul and St. John’s both find themselves in the bottom half of the Big East standings. Both are also coming off a game that was decided by three points. The difference is that St. John’s lost on Wednesday, 81-78 to Creighton, while DePaul was a 68-65 winner over Georgetown on Thursday. The win for DePaul was their first since February 9th, also against Georgetown. In between the two wins over the Hoyas, the Blue Demons dropped four straight. But three of those losses were by three points or less, so they easily could have had a better record this month. They were up 19 in the second half against Providence and lost that game in overtime. St. John’s blew a seven-point halftime lead to Creighton and lost for the third time in the last five games. The biggest problem facing the Red Storm is that they don’t play much defense, especially on the road where they are giving up 78.5 points/game. The Johnnies did beat DePaul 89-84 at home last month. But they’ve been far too inconsistent to expect a season sweep. DePaul averages 76.5 points at home and is 3-0 ATS this season off a Big East win. | |||||||
02-27-22 | Illinois v. Michigan | Top | 93-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Illinois (19-8 overall, 12-5 Big 10) is coming off an 86-83 home loss to Ohio State on Thursday, which knocked the Fighting Illini a game back of conference leaders Wisconsin and Purdue. I like them to bounce back here on Sunday, We know that Michigan is without coach Juwan Howard, who is suspended for five games due to the post-game fight with Wisconsin. The Wolverines did show some resolve by going out and beating Rutgers 71-62 on Wednesday, here in Ann Arbor. Michigan is now 8-4 in its last 12 games and their NCAA Tournament prospects are looking a lot better. But I simply think that the Illini are the better team here. They won the season’s first meeting, 68-53 as a 9.5-point favorite. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the last four games against Michigan. Michigan has been far more inconsistent this year. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. They are just 15-11 straight up this year and rate lower than Illinois in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Illinois is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in its last four games as a road favorite of three points or less. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Southern Miss v. Rice -13 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Rice has a wonderful opportunity to win big in its last home game of the season. The Owls are hosting Southern Miss, who is Conference USA’s worst team. The visitors are 6-22 overall this season, 1-14 in conference play. Their last win over a Division I opponent was back on January 6th, by a single point. Two of Southern Miss’ four wins over DI teams this year have been by a single point. So it’s been a bleak year in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles have lost 11 in a row and 10 of those losses have been by double digits. Rice has lost four straight and five of six, but the last two games were decided by a total of six points. There should be ample motivation to give the seniors one final big win at home tonight. Back on January 29th, the Owls beat Southern Miss by 14 on the road. Rice scored 52 points in the second half Thursday. They are averaging 77.9 points at home. Southern Miss averages just over 60 PPG on the road. Lastly, Rice is a perfect 6-0 against the spread the last three seasons when playing at home and the total is between 145 and 149.5. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Cleveland State v. Oakland -1.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Oakland has faded a bit in the Horizon League title chance, losing three straight to fall to 11-7 in conference play and 18-11 overall. That’s three games back of current leader Cleveland State, whom the Golden Grizzlies will play host to this afternoon. I like them to get the job done here. Going back to January 20th, Oakland is just 1-10 against the spread. They have been the favorite for all of those games, except one, a 75-64 loss at Wright State. Their three straight losses have all been here at home, which is shocking as the Golden Grizzlies had previously not lost a home game all season. Cleveland State is also coming off a loss, 74-67 at Detroit. This will be the Vikings’ fifth consecutive road game to end the regular season. Meanwhile, it’s the final home game (Senior Night) for Oakland. While Cleveland State is looking to wrap up the regular season championship, Oakland is desperate to build some momentum for the upcoming Conference Tournament. They defeated Cleveland State, 70-65, as a 1-point road underdog earlier in the season. I can’t see Oakland losing again at home as CSU should be pretty spent, having played so many road games in a row. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -3.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
There are four ranked teams in the Big 12 (Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas) that are the class of the conference. After that, there’s a bit of a drop. Neither Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have had much reason to celebrate lately, as the former is 3-7 its last 10 games and the latter is 2-11 its last 13 games. But someone will have to prevail in “Bedlam” on Saturday. When these teams met on ⅖, the Cowboys prevailed 64-55 in Stillwater. But now the Sooners get the game in Norman with a shot at revenge. OU is off back to back 20+ point losses as well. So they are really desperate here. OSU lost by two at home to Baylor on Monday. The game went to overtime. I had the Cowboys, plus the points, so at the end of the day, I was happy. But OSU has to be a bit deflated, especially with that being their fifth OT game this season. The Cowboys are also banned from postseason play, so you’ve got to question their level of motivation down the stretch. Off an ATS win, they are 2-7 ATS this season. They last covered two straight games in November. The revenge angle and home court advantage should propel Oklahoma to a win Saturday. They’ve lost four in a row to their rivals. They won’t lose again. Lay the short number. | |||||||
02-25-22 | Manhattan +5.5 v. Marist | Top | 56-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Elsewhere, I’ve got a play on the top MAAC team against the bottom MAAC team. Here, we venture to the middle of the conference standings for a game between Manhattan and Marist. I think the value resides with the dog in this one as they won the first meeting. It was 72-66 in favor of Manhattan, back on Jan 30th, when these teams first met. The Jaspers proceeded to lose their next four games, but now have won three straight and can pass Marist for fifth place in the conference. Why is that important? Because the top five teams get first round byes in the conference tournament. After losing five in a row, Marist has now won five in a row. Two of those wins were by just a point though and they were against Qunnipiac and Canisius, who are at the bottom of the league. In another recent win (last Friday vs. Siena), the Red Foxes were down seven at the half. Not only is Marist just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine tries as a favorite, but the team that has been the underdog has covered four of the last five meetings in this MAAC rivalry. Take the points. | |||||||
02-25-22 | Canisius v. Iona -15 | Top | 65-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a mismatch, an even bigger one than what the line suggests. Iona leads the MAAC with a 14-2 conference record. They are 11-0 at home, winning by 12.5 points per game. Tonight they can wrap up the regular season title simply by defeating last place Canisius. Look for this to be a blowout. Iona won the first meeting by eight. But the 70-62 final was a little misleading in the sense that the Gaels were up 19 at the half. It was 35-12 just 15 minutes into the game. Canisius hasn’t won on the road all year. They are 0-14 away from home as they are shooting just 38.2 percent from the field. In their last game, the Golden Griffins scored just 54 points in a home loss to Niagara. That was their seventh loss in the last eight games. Iona ran out to an 18-point victory over Fairfield their last time on the court. That was here at home on Sunday. They used a big second half to cover the 11-point spread. I just can’t see this being a close game. Lay the points. | |||||||
02-25-22 | Northwestern +1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
I like Northwestern here in a battle of two of the five Big 10 teams that aren’t projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats picked up a win earlier this week, at home, 77-65 over Nebraska. Now they look to avenge a four-point home loss where they were eight-point favorites. That first meeting was a little odd. Penn State won because they controlled the glass (40-28 edge in rebounds) and made more free throws (15) than Northwestern even attempted (nine). The Nittany Lions are 308th in the country in points per game, so unless they can replicate those edges in rebounding and free throw shooting, I don’t see them outscoring Northwestern tonight. PSU lost on Monday, 67-61 at Maryland, and you may remember that I took the Terps in that game. The Nittany Lions lost even though Maryland did not make a basket over the game’s final 6:20. Bad sign. Northwestern has covered all four times this season when matched up against an opponent with a losing record. | |||||||
02-24-22 | Belmont v. Murray State OVER 144.5 | Top | 43-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This sets up as the Game of the Year in the Ohio Valley Conference with #19 Murray State hosting its top challenger Belmont. The teams are separated by two games, meaning Belmont cannot win the OVC regular season title outright. Murray State is a perfect 16-0 in the league, South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the only other teams in the country that haven’t lost a single conference game. I look for the teams to get off to a fast start in this one. The first time they played, it was a 48-35 game at halftime and Murray State ended up winning 82-60. Belmont shot very poorly that day, connecting on only 40.7% of their shots and going 5 of 23 from three-point range. Expect the Bruins to shoot a lot better tonight. They have not lost since January 20th and come in averaging 79.1 points per game. They are shooting almost 50% overall for the season. Murray State averages 79.7 points per game this season and at home they are averaging almost 90 points per game! The Racers shoot 51.4% in home games where they have not lost in 2021-22. Murray State got off to a slow start in its last game (eventually beat UT Martin 62-60), which is why I’m anticipating a fast start here. Belmont only made 6 of 26 threes against SIU Edwardsville and left some points at the free throw line. Take the OVER. | |||||||
02-23-22 | Chattanooga -3 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The race for the regular season title in the SoCon (Southern Conference) is down to two teams: Chattanooga and Furman. Chattanooga is seemingly in the driver's seat, not just with a one-game lead, but they also swept the season series against Furman. But, after beating Furman for a second time this year, the Mocs have lost two straight: 73-70 to UNC Greensboro and 80-75 to VMI. Even more embarrassing is that both losses came at home. Tonight though, the Mocs can clinch the regular season title, simply by winning at East Tennessee State. When these in-state rivals met on New Year’s Eve, it was all Chattanooga in an 82-52 beatdown. East Tennessee State has not had a good season as they come into the rematch having lost seven of their last nine games. Many of those losses were close, but I just can’t see them winning here against a hungry and better opponent. Chattanooga is a very impressive 21-5-1 ATS its last 27 games against teams that have a losing record. East Tennessee State is 14-15 overall on the year (straight up). This is only the second time this season that Chattanooga has lost back to back games. The first instance saw them rebound with a double digit victory. That is what I expect here. Lay the points. | |||||||
02-23-22 | Bucknell v. Army OVER 145 | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Bucknell and Army meet for the second time in 2022 and if the first meeting, or even more recent results (from both teams) are any indication, then this Patriot League matchup should be pretty high-scoring on Wednesday. The first time these teams played, Army won 96-89. Both sides shot the lights out. Army made 60 percent of its field goal attempts while Bucknell wasn’t too far behind at 55.7 percent (also made 45.8% from three). Since that first meeting, we’ve seen numerous high scoring games from each team. Bucknell is coming off a 92-89 win over Lafayette. That game did go to overtime, but the Bison have now shot better than 50 percent in three of their last four contests. The fact they also are giving up almost 80 points per game is another reason to like the Over here. Army has allowed a total of 183 points in its last two games with the opponents shooting 57 percent! What if I told you that Bucknell has the third worst defensive efficiency rating in the country? Or that the Over has hit in five of their last six games? I’m quite shocked that the total is not higher here than it was for the first matchup between the teams. | |||||||
02-22-22 | UNLV v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 62-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Two rivals trying to break from the middle of the Mountain West pack meet Tuesday night in Reno as Nevada hosts UNLV. The home side has won three in a row, though two of those wins came against last place San Jose State. The visiting team has won three of four and five of its last seven, which includes a win over Nevada , 69-58 down in Sin City. The Runnin’ Rebels are 4-0 ATS in the last four games and coming off wins over Fresno State and Colorado State. Beating Colorado State by 21 on Saturday was very impressive. The Rebels have gotten 10 straight games of 17+ points from leading scorer Hamilton and the only time they’ve been beaten in the last four games, it came down to the final minute in Bose. But Nevada is out for revenge Tuesday night and should benefit from the fact they have not played a game since Thursday (when they obliterated San Jose State by 30). The Wolf Pack have won and covered the last three times they’ve hosted UNLV. They shot very poorly in the game at Vegas earlier this year, including 3 of 17 from three. They come into this game shooting 53.7% overall over the last five games. I mentioned earlier that UNLV is off a 21-point over Colorado State. Fortunately for us, the Rebels are just 1-5 ATS the previous six times they have been off a straight up win by 20 or more points. | |||||||
02-22-22 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 85-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Heading into February, Miami was viewed as a legit contender in the ACC. But they’re just 3-3 overall this month and thus falling back to the rest of the pack. Looking at their remaining games, the Hurricanes do have a pretty “easy” schedule and still trail Duke by just two games. Winning tonight at Pittsburgh is a must and I think they get the job done. Pitt had won three in a row, but then lost to Ga Tech 68-62 on Saturday. They were two-point favorites. Even with the recent surge, the Panthers are just 6-11 in ACC games and closer to the bottom then they are to the middle of the pack. Miami is 7-2 on the road this year, straight up and against the spread, so I am not worried about laying a short number here. Pittsburgh is averaging only 62.5 points per game, which is 343rd in the country. I think most would be looking at the Hurricanes a lot more favorably here, had they not wilted in the second half against Virginia on Saturday. The Canes were up by eight at the half in that game, but surrendered a 23-4 second half run and never really recovered. The final score was 74-71. The last five games Miami has allowed a shooting percentage of 50.6. I just don’t see Pitt coming anywhere close to that. | |||||||
02-21-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +4.5 | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
#7 Baylor heads to Stillwater tonight to face Oklahoma State. This is Ok State’s second straight week playing on “Big Monday” (ESPN). The Cowboys certainly are hoping this week goes better than last when they lost to Kansas 76-62 as a 10.5-point dog. I believe it will! The obvious difference between this week and last is that OSU is playing at home. They have a much better record in Stillwater (9-5 SU), which is where they just defeated Kansas State on Saturday, 82-79. Though it ended up going into overtime, the Cowboys led most of that game. Now Baylor is clearly much better than Kansas State. But the Bears have struggled a bit on their travels recently, dropping three of their last four road games. You could argue that all three teams Baylor lost to on the road are better than Ok State. I won’t disagree with you on that. But Ok State also already holds a win over Baylor this year, having gone to Waco and come out ahead 61-54 as 14-point road underdogs. They held the Bears to 31% shooting for the game. It was Baylor’s second straight loss at the time. Baylor is just 2-5 ATS its last seven games overall. They are playing short-handed right now with a couple of players injured. A lack of depth will catch up with them on the road. Take the points. | |||||||
02-21-22 | Penn State v. Maryland -145 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
I used Maryland back on Friday and they got the ‘W’, easily defeating last place Nebraska by a score of 90-74. The Terrapins were just a two-point favorite, on the road, in that one. The win snapped a five-game losing streak (two losses were by a total of three points) and now the Terps look to make it back to back Big 10 wins for just the second time all season. Just to be safe here, I’m playing the money line. Needing just a straight up win is a lot less to worry about as opposed to laying the points, even if it is a small number. Six Maryland players finished in double figures against Nebraska and the team shot 73 percent from the field during the opening 10 minutes of the second half. I don’t think they’ll play that well again. But, at home, the Terrapins should have no problem beating Penn State. PSU has won back to back games for the first time since the start of the new year. The wins, both at home, were against Michigan State and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions are now 10-3 ATS in 2022. But they have a 1-7 straight up record in true road games. Maryland is looking for revenge tonight as they lost both meetings with PSU last season. I think they’ll get it. Play them on the MONEY LINE | |||||||
02-20-22 | Lehigh v. Loyola Maryland -4.5 | Top | 42-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Loyola MD has lost four straight and six of seven. But most of those losses have been close. Three of them were by four points or less. So the recent record could be alot better for the Greyhounds. I like them today, at home, as they look to sweep the season series from Lehigh. A win today would pull Loyola even with Lehigh for fourth place in the Patriot League. Obviously, based on head to head results, they’d have the tiebreak. A loss would drop the Greyhounds and have them in danger of having to play a first round game in the Conference Tournament. They obviously want to avoid that. Lehigh is off a win, 86-77 over Bucknell, but before that had lost four of five. The road has been unkind this year to the Mountain Hawks as they are 3-10 SU away. The last road win for them was just over a month ago. Loyola won the first meeting 69-57 and was a two-point favorite. Looking at the line here and comparing it to the first meeting, it seems like we’re getting a pretty great value. This is a huge game for the home team. I really like them in this spot. | |||||||
02-20-22 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 138.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan and Wisconsin are both looking to follow up impressive wins on the road. The Wolverines, who are 14-10, need this game more as Wisconsin is 20-5 and well positioned to get a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan scored 84 points Thursday at Iowa on 50% shooting. They won’t need nearly that many to win Sunday, though it should be pointed out that the Wolverines have topped 80 in three of their last six games. The Over is 6-3 in Michigan’s last nine games and two of the games that stayed Under had higher totals than what we’ve got for today’s matchup. Wisconsin scored 74 points in its win over Indiana on Tuesday. They rallied in the second half for the victory. The Over is 6-0 the last six times the Badgers have been off an ATS win. The Over is also 4-0 the previous four times Michigan has been a road underdog. Looking at what both teams are averaging this season and the total for this game, I think it’s very reasonable to expect an Over. | |||||||
02-19-22 | Oregon +13.5 v. Arizona | Top | 81-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is the ultimate buy low spot on Oregon, who just suffered a terrible loss at Arizona State on Thursday. Despite being favored by five points, the Ducks ended up losing the game 81-57. It was their worst loss of the season and a costly one for their NCAA Tournament prospects. Few will give Oregon a shot tonight playing at Arizona. It’s not just the bad loss on Thursday. Arizona is ranked #3 in the country. But, like I said, it’s time to buy low on Oregon. Expect them to come out with a flurry. Last Saturday, Arizona found itself down 14 early to Washington before being able to come back. It was another slow start in Thursday’s win over Oregon State. The Wildcats, talented as they are, can’t just keep starting slow and blowing teams out in the second half. It’s unsustainable. Oregon was the #13 team in the country in the preseason poll and has beaten Arizona seven consecutive times. This is the first time they’ve been a double digit dog this season. The most points they’ve gotten previously, in any game, was +9.5 at UCLA. The Ducks ended up winning that game 84-81. This is a great time to take the points. | |||||||
02-19-22 | Murray State -15.5 v. Tenn-Martin | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
I’ve been VERY impressed with what Murray State is doing. The Racers have gotten themselves into the Top 25 by winning 15 in a row and can now probably count on being an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament if they fail to win the Ohio Valley Tournament next month. Only two other teams in America, besides Murray State, don’t have a conference loss. They are Gonzaga and South Dakota State. In their last game, the Racers blew past Austin Peay for a 91-56 win and cover. From the opening tip, there was little doubt they’d cover the 18.5-point spread. I expect a similar win here today against Tenn-Martin. This is a tough one for Tenn-Martin, who just hosted Morehead State, who is another of the Ohio Valley’s better teams. The Skyhawks did cover that game, as nine-point dogs, but barely - they lost 68-60 and that was despite having the halftime lead. Tenn-Martin has now dropped four straight games. The first meeting between these teams was actually rather close. Murray State won by only eight, despite being 22 point favorites at home. But that was early enough in the season that Tenn-Martin still had hope. At this point, they know they cannot compete with a nationally ranked team and I expect that to show Saturday afternoon. | |||||||
02-19-22 | Auburn -3.5 v. Florida | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
#2 Auburn is back in action Saturday, looking to continue its outstanding form in the SEC this season. The Tigers are 12-1 in conference play so far and winning by an average of 10.4 points per game. Very impressive. After double digit wins at home over Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, the Tigers will now head to Gainesville to face Florida. The Gators are not in peak form right now. Not only have they failed to cover the spread in five straight games, they’ve lost the last two on the scoreboard as well. Those losses were both on the road, one by a single point (to Texas A&M) and the other to Kentucky. But if you’re expecting this team to step up as a home dog, better think again. Florida is 0-6 ATS the past six times it has been a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Gators also have just one “Quad 1” win on the year. They lost the first meeting, at Auburn, by a score of 85-73. They didn’t cover as 7.5 point underdogs. The bottom line is that I just don’t think the home team is good enough to “hang around” the #2 ranked team in the country for 40 minutes. Lay the points | |||||||
02-19-22 | Boston College v. Syracuse -8.5 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
It is very clear that Syracuse is an entirely different team when playing at the Carrier Dome. The Orange are 9-3 here and averaging 86.3 points. That scoring average is up from their overall average of 77.3 for the season. They are shooting 51.4% from the field in home games, which includes an incredible 42.5% from three. So I have zero hesitation in laying the points here against BC, who is 1-10 away from home. The Eagles have won just four ACC games this season and come into today on a four-game losing streak. One of those four losses came at home to Syracuse, 73-64. Given the ‘Cuse shot just 39.3% that day and how they shoot at home, this figures to be a long afternoon for Boston College at the defensive end. I like the way the schedule breaks for Syracuse as well. They’d won four in a row before running into Va Tech last Saturday. The Orange have had a week to recover from their 71-59 loss in Blacksburg. Meanwhile, BC just played at Notre Dame on Wednesday and lost in overtime. Lay the points | |||||||
02-18-22 | Maryland -2 v. Nebraska | Top | 90-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
It’s been a disappointing season for Maryland (they were once ranked!), but the Terps ought to be favored by more against the worst team in the Big 10. The Big 10 is obviously a tough league as it could be putting nine teams in the NCAA Tournament. Of the five unlikely Big Dance participants, four (Penn State, N’western, Maryland, Minnesota) are pretty evenly matched. But then there’s a huge drop with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are dead last with a 1-13 Big 10 record. The one win came last week at home vs. Minnesota. But then they got smashed by Iowa on Super Bowl Sunday. That was the fifth time this season that the team suffered a loss by more than 20 points against a conference foe. Also on Sunday, Maryland had a 12 point lead at Purdue in the second half with 11 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately, they blew all of it and lost 62-61. That was the Terrapins’ second one-possession loss to a ranked team in the last four games. I just think the Terps are simply the better team, even if Eric Ayala is out again. They are 16-3 ATS when on a losing streak of three or more games. | |||||||
02-18-22 | Columbia v. Harvard -15 | Top | 54-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Harvard has lost three straight games and finds itself in the bottom half of the Ivy League standings. But tonight is a get well game against Columbia, who as you can tell (from the line) is not good at all. Columbia is in fact last in the Ivy with a 1-9 conference record. They are 4-18 overall on the year. The Lions’ lone conference win was by four points (over Penn!), all the way back on January 8th. In the last game, they got destroyed, losing to Yale by 25 at home. The Lions’ current eight-game losing streak actually began with a 91-82 setback at Harvard. The spread for that game was 10 points so Columbia covered. But they also shot a season-high 55% overall from the floor and 48% from three. Those numbers won’t be repeated tonight. Three of Harvard’s last four defeats have been by four points or less and two were to conference leader Yale. It was an eight-point loss at second place Penn last Saturday. So the Crimson have been facing the Ivy League’s elite recently and coming up short. This drop in class should guarantee a favorable result. I mentioned earlier that Columbia scored just 59 points in its last game. Well, the last nine times after a game where they scored 60 or less, they are 1-8 ATS. Lay the points. | |||||||
02-17-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Cal-Riverside OVER 124 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
This is a pretty low total, surprising because the last five Cal State Bakersfield games have all gone Over. There’s been a remarkable consistency with the last three, which have all seen exactly 136 total points scored. Now, the low total probably has something to do with UC Riverside, who has seen the Under hit in five of its last six games. But the one Over did come in their last game, last Saturday, as the Highlanders gave up 85 points in a loss to UC San Diego. The first time these Big West rivals met, the game went Over. The final score was 65-64, in favor of Riverside. Neither team even shot all that well in the first meeting. UC Riverside made only 6 of its 27 three-point tries. CS Bakersfield was just 40.4% overall from the field. I expect better all-around shooting tonight. Yes, I know the Under is a perfect 8-0 in Riverside home games this season. It’s time for one to go the other way. Take the OVER | |||||||
02-16-22 | Chicago State v. Stephen F Austin -19 | Top | 71-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Chicago State is one of the very worst teams in the country and I don’t think SF Austin will have any problem handling them in this Wednesday night WAC matchup. Look no further than what happened last week, in SF Austin’s last game. They crushed Chicago State, on the road, 81-61 as a 12-point favorite. That was the Lumberjacks’ fourth consecutive win and cover. Chicago State has lost six in a row and they’ve played another game since the 20-point loss to SF Austin. It was a 13-point loss, also at home, to Sam Houston State. The Cougars are now 2-10 in conference play this season. Even worse, they are 2-12 overall on the road. SF Austin is two games off the lead in the WAC, so there’s no reason to expect there to be any kind of “letdown” tonight. If anything, it should be a focused effort as the team looks to make its move up the WAC standings. The remaining schedule looks advantageous. Meanwhile, Chicago State has had less time to get ready for this rematch and they know anything short of a miracle run in the WAC Tournament means their season is over. For all intents and purposes, it already is over. The Cougars are averaging less than 60 points/game on the road. Lay the points. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |