Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-27-24 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +14 | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt. No outright here, but much closer than expected in my opinion. Tennessee is 14-4 and clearly the better team, but it's just 2-2 in true road games. Vanderbilt is 5-13, but a more respectable 5-6 at home. Tennesseee is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but note that the Vols are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. With a home game vs. 16-3 South Carolina up next, the visitors are going to get caught looking ahead here and take the foot off the gas down the stretch. The Vols won this game 66-65 as ten-point dogs last year, and while I'm not calling for the oturight upset this time around, everything is definitely set up to be another tight and competitive battle this time around as well. Off five straight SU losses, I think the Commodores are now undervalued here at home. Grab the points, thep lay is VANDERBILT. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-27-24 | Wizards +3 v. Pistons | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Wizards. With nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side, we're going contrarian with this play. Both teams are terrible. Both are evenly matched. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll gladly grab the points. Washington is off six straight losses, while Detroit just snapped a three-game slide with a win over Charlotte here in its most recent action. With a much more high-profile game here at home vs. the Thunder tomorrow night though, I believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here. Washington plays with revenge after a 129-117 home loss as a six-point favorite to the Pistons in mid January, and note that the Wizards are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. While I do think an outright is possible, let's grab the points here with WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors +7.5 | Top | 127-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the Raptors. With nearly 75% of early public money on the Clippers, we're going contrarian with this one boys. LA is just 9-10 on the road. It's off three straight SU/ATS home wins, but note that the Clippers are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after three or more straight SU/ATS wins in a row. And with a much tougher and more high-profile game at Boston tomorrow night, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also "lookahead." Add those two factors together and you get TRAP GAME! The Raptors play with revenge here as well after a 126-120 loss at LA at the start of the month. The Raptors have now lost seven of their last eight, including three in a row both SU/ATS, but note that Toronto is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row. Toronto has had three nights off to prepare fo this one and I expect it to make the most of it. Despite who is on the court tonight, this is a great situational play for the home side. Grab the points, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-26-24 | Marist +2.5 v. Niagara | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends make the visiting side the correct call here in my opinion and while I do think an outright victory is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Marist is 9-7 and Niagara is 9-9. The Red Foxes are 4-5 on the road, while the Purple Eagles are 3-5 at home. Marist has been trading wins/losses over its last four games. It beat Niagara 61-52 as a two-point dog in this game at home last year. Niagara has won two straight on the road as an underdog, but now back here at home, I think the Purple Eagles are the ones overvalued here. The bottom line here is that these evenly matched teams will take this one right down to the wire and whichever side has its hands on the ball last is likely going to be the victor. Because of that, I'm grabbing the points with MARIST. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-25-24 | Pacific +27.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 28-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST COAST GOY on Pacific. I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything obviously, but I do think this is WAY too many points for the home side to be giving up. Pacific is 6-14, including just 1-8 on the road, while Saint Mary's is 14-6, including 8-3 at home. The Gaels have hit a favorable part of their schedule as well. Winning though at times, has a way of leading to complacency, while losing can lead to motivation. Pacific has lost five straight, but note that the Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU losses in a row. Pacific has lost four straight conference matchups, but did play the Dons to OT in their first conference matchup. But look for the home side to take the foot off the gas in a big way as the game comes down the stretch and for the the visiting side to keep it respectable with a decent effort down the stretch. As stated off the top, I'm not predicting an outright victory, but I do think this is a huge spread. So grab the points, the play is indeed on PACIFIC. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-21-24 | Celtics v. Rockets +11.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the Rockets. Boston is just 12-9 on the road this year. It's also now just 20-1 at home after falling 102-100 to the Nuggets last time out. With a much more high-profile and difficult game tomorrow in Dallas though, I think this sets up as a trap for the visitors here now in Houston, as they suffer the letdown from the first home defeat, while also getting caught looking ahead to tomorrow's contest. Normally I wouldn't be playing on Houston after a 127-126 OT loss here to Utah just last night. But the Rockets were competitive in defeat. They're 20-21 overall, but 16-6 at home. It was a disappointment last night, but I still say that the home side comes to play here in this favorable spot. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do believe for sure that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-21-24 | Chiefs +3 v. Bills | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 125 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* DIVISIONAL RND. GOY on Kansas City. They say that revenge is a dish best served cold. However the saying goes, we like the Chiefs to use their experience and to avenge the 20-17 home loss to the Bills back on December 10th. Note that KC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Buffalo got the better of a sub-par Pittsburgh team, but the Chiefs are an entirely different animal at this time of year. KC's defense just held the league's highest scoring offense to only 26 points, and we have a hard time seeing the Bills matching what they did last week. Give me Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with the points in this revenge scenario. The play is indeed on KANSAS CITY. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -8.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Ravens. I had a play on Houston last week, but now the Texans and CJ Stroud are going to have to deal with another super tough defense, but this time on the road. The Texans have already exceeded expectations to this point and I think they're going to classically stumble here, now satisfied. But for LaMar Jackson and the Ravens, this year has an almost "now or never" type of feel to it. Teams that have a bye in the first week have a tremendous advantage, and that's going to be the case here for Baltimore in my estimation. The Houston defense looked poor in the win over the Browns. Overall it allowed Cleveland to go 7 of 15 on third down. The Ravens only concede 16.5 PPG, and I think Houston will now struggle to even reach that amount here on the road. Jackson has thrown three or more TD's in each of his last two games as home favorites and all signs point to another blowout. Lay the points, the play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-19-24 | UNLV v. Colorado State -6.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Colorado State. UNLV is 9-7 overall, including 2-1 on the road, while Colorado State is 14-3, including 9-1 at home. The Runnin Rebels are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three after a 68-68 upset road win at Boise State last time out. Note though that UNLV is in fact just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more ATS victories in a row. Colorado State snapped a two-game slide with a tighter-than-expected 78-69 OT win over Air Force in their most recent action. The Rams have now lost three straight ATS, but note that CSU is in fact a wallet-expanding 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more ATS losses in a row. Look for CSU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the point with confidence. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-18-24 | Eastern Washington v. Weber State -4.5 | Top | 80-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY GOY on Weber State. I'm expecting the home side to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Eastern Washington is 9-7 overall, but ust 4-7 on the road. Weber State is 11-6 overall, including 7-0 at home. The Wildcats won't be taking anything for granted here though after back-to-back upset losses as favorites on the road. They also play with revenge after falling to EWU 89-82 as 1-point favs in this contest last year. Eastern Washington has been on a role of late, winning five straight SU and nine straight ATS, but note that the Eagles are in fact just 3-6 ATS in their last nine after five or more SU victories in a row. The general betting public is all over the visitors here as well with nearly 70% of the early money on Eastern Washington. We're going contrarian here with this great "situational" play. The play is WEBER STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-17-24 | Heat v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Raptors. I love the way this one sets up for the home side and while I clearly believe that the Raptors can win this one outright, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Miami is 12-9 on the road, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, and with a game at home vs. Atlanta after this, I say this sets up as minor letdown spot for the visitors. No such luxury for the Raptors, who are 15-25 overall and off four straight SU losses and three straight ATS losses. Toronto does indeed play with revenge here though after a 112-103 loss here to Miami as a 3.5-point favorite back in early December, and note that the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. As mentioned above, I absolutely believe the outright win is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with TORONTO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-15-24 | Thunder v. Lakers -1 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Lakers. OKC is 27-11 and 11-6 on the road, while LA is 20-21 overall, but 14-7 at home. The Thunder have won four straight SU and three straight ATS, but note that OKC is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS victories in a row. And with another very difficult game tomorrow night here vs. the Clippers, this is also a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. The Lakers are just 1-2 SU in their last three, and 0-3 ATS. Note though that LA is 7-4 ATS still in its last 11 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. Look for the desperate home side to risk life and limb to get back into the winner's circle here this evening. Lay the short points, the play is LA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-15-24 | Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -120 | 172 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* WC GOY on the Eagles. The Eagles stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but they still finished 11-6. Tampa Bay qualified for the playoffs in Week 18 after holding on for a 9-0 win at Carolina (lost 23-13 here to New Orleans the week before.) Yes, there should be some concern for Eagles fans for their Super Bowl hopes, but no, I don't think at all here that they have anything to worry about vs. the Bucs. Baker Mayfield made the playoffs and a bonus and now I feel that a predictable letdown is imminent. Experience does count at this point and we can expect Jalen Hurts and company to be the ones to step up and deliver the goods. Lay the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-14-24 | Rams +3.5 v. Lions | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 149 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rams. While I do think the Rams have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Detroit finished 12-5, while LA was 10-7. The Rams were 5-4 SU on the road, including 5-3-1 ATS. These teams offensive and defensive numbers are really similar and of course we have the "Matt Stafford" factor returning to Detroit, and Jared Goff facing his former team as well. Stafford and Goff were traded and Stafford would go on to win the Super Bowl with the Rams. Last year Stafford was injured and while he started slowly this year, he finished strong down the stretch and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is LA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-14-24 | Packers +7.5 v. Cowboys | 48-32 | Win | 100 | 145 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Packers. Green Bay defied the odds and made the wildcard with 9-8 record, and it's on the road to take the 12-5 Cowboys, who are famous for their playoff futility. Jordan Love improved dramatically over the second half of the season and I think the Packers actually have a legitimate shot at this one outright. Dallas lost to Buffalo and Miami, but then bounced back to beat Detroit (20-19 as a 4.5-point fav), and then blew out Washington in Week 18, 38-10. But this improved PACKERS team comes in well "under the radar" in my opinion and while I'm not calling for the outright, all signs point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. So grab the points. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-13-24 | USC v. Colorado -9.5 | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Colorado. USC is 8-8, including just 1-3 on the road, while Colorado is 11-5, including 9-0 at home. USC is off a 72-64 loss to Washington State as a six-point favorite, and I think it'll struggle to keep pace with the Buffs down the stretch. Colorado has now lost three straight SU/ATS conference road contests, but note that the Buffs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Lay the number and expect a rout. The play is COLORADO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-13-24 | UC San Diego v. Cal Poly +10.5 | Top | 86-61 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG WEST GOY on Cal Poly Slo. This one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side. UC San Diego 10-6, including 3-3 on the road, while Cal Poly Slo is 4-13, including 3-4 at home. After four SU victories and five straight ATS wins though, I think the visiting side is now overvalued here. Especially with a road game at No. 1 UCI this coming week. This is a classic letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME. The Mustangs have lost five straight after a 71-56 setback at UCRV, but note that Cal Poly Slo is in fact a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in its last five after five or more SU losses in a row. I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do expect the home side to go down fighting until the final horn. Grab the points, the play is CAL POLY SLO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans +3 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 123 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Texans. Houston won its first division title since 2019 and I think it'll carry that momentum over here at home. This is a rematch for Houston after it fell 36-22 at home to the Browns on X-Mas Eve. While Joe Flacco caught the Texans off-guard in that one, I don't think the "old dog" has anymore "tricks" up his sleeve. CJ Stroud will be playing this time and I think he'll easily match his now overrated counterpart. Flacco's story has been great to this point, but he's still on the tail end of his career. Stroud returned in last week's crucial contest and looked superb, going 20 of 26 for 264 yards and two TD's. Flacco was 5-0 as a starter in the Wildcard Round, so he's no stranger to these types of games, but that was then, and this is now. Look for Stroud to be the one to put the pressure on today and while the outright win is obviously possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-10-24 | Washington State +6.5 v. USC | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 GOY on Washington State. While I do think an outright win is a possibility, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Washington State is 10-5 and USC is 8-7. The Cougars though have now lost four straight ATS after their most recent 89-84 loss to Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite. That's now back-to-back conference losses as a favorite and despite the last setback though, note that WSU is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. USC is coming off back-to-back conference home wins over Cal and Stanford. The Trojans were big favorites in each and covered, but now I feel they're getting a little TOO much respect here. Honestly the way these teams matchup, I feel that the visitors have a legitimate shot at bouncing back and winning this one outright, while at the same time, everything now points to a classic letdown in opinion for the home side. Grab the points, the play is indeed on WASHINGTON STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-09-24 | Air Force +15.5 v. Nevada | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW GOY on Air Force. With over 75% of the early public money on the 14-1 home side, me and my clients are going to go the other way and grab the 7-6 Air Force Falcons, who are 3-1 on the road. Yes, Nevada is 8-0 at home, but I still think this is WAY too many points for the Wolfpack to have to cover here. With 10-4 Boise State coming to town this weekend, will Nevada get caught "looking ahead?!" It very well could. The possibility is there for sure anyways. No such luxury for Air Force though, which has lost four straight SU/ATS. That however is significant to note here as despite falling 88-60 to Utah State last time out, the Falcons are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row. The conditions are all correct here for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is AIR FORCE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 127 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on Michigan. With nearly 65% of the early public money on Washington, I'm going the other way here and laying the points and expecting Michigan to find a way to get the job done before the end of the night. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, and as the old saying goes: "Defense Wins Championships!" This is the first time in the CFP era that two undefeated teams have met in the Final game. The Wolverines, behind star RB Blake Corum, have finally made it to the big game and I'm expecting them to make the most of it. I really respect Washington. I think Michael Penix Jr. is a phenomenal player. But Penix Jr. has yet to face a defense as nasty and opportunistic as this Wolverines' unit. The Wolverines also got some big-time play from QB JJ McCarthy in the 27-20 OT win over Alabama and I just don't see much difference between these two starting pivots. The Huskies' defense bent, didn't break this year, but here in the "Big Game," that's simply NOT going to be good enough. While the majority go one way, me and my growing list of satisfied clients are going the other. Go Blue! The play is MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-07-24 | Clippers v. Lakers +4.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOOD-BATH on the Lakers. The Lakers already beat the Clippers this year 130-125 in OT here on November 1st. The Lakers would go on shortly after to win the In-Season Tournament, but they've since come back down to Earth and enter having lost three straight SU and ATS. That's important to note though, as the Lakers are in fact 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. I don't usually play against teams that are playing with revenge, but after five straight SU/ATS victories in a row, I believe the Clippers are now getting a little TOO much respect here from the oddsmakers (and public, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the Clippers!), as the Clippers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after five or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. The Clippers welcome Phoenix here tomorrow, so this is a "look ahead" position as well. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bucs v. Panthers +4.5 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC SOUTH GOM on the Panthers. With nearly 75% of the early public money on the Bucs, me and my clients are definitely going the other way here and looking for Carolina to pull off the epic spoiler on its home field here in Week 18. These Panthers' players and coaches are playing for their jobs next year. A big performance here will go a long way in helping that cause. Carolina plays with revenge here after falling 21-18 at Tampa Bay in early December, earning the cover with the 3.5-point spread. The Bucs are off a heart-breaking 23-13 loss to the Saints last week. Tampa is an unrealistic 7-1 ATS on the road this year, but note that the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS in their last five as favorites. Bryce Young was 19 of 32 in last week's 26-0 loss to Jacksonville. The Panthers will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the outright upset and to rebound from last week's terrible effort. I just don't trust Baker Mayfield in this important position whatsoever. Look for Young to settle down and to match his counterpart and look for the home side to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover once it's all said and done. Grab the points, the play is CAROLINA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-06-24 | Cincinnati +9 v. BYU | Top | 71-60 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Cincinnati. While I'm not calling for the outright win, I definitely think this is too many points for the home side to be covering here. Cincinnati is 10-2 and BYU is 12-1. The Bearcats are off the 76-68 win over Evansville, but despite not covering the spread for a fourth straight time, note that the Bearcats are still 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. BYU is 4-1 SU in its last five and 3-0 ATS in its last three, but that's also significant to note here as the Cougars are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS victories in a row. These teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is suggesting. So grab the points, as the play is indeed on CINCINNATI. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks +2 | Top | 138-141 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Hawks. The Hawks do indeed play with revenge here after a SU/ATS loss in OKC back in October, and note that ATL is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Atlanta just broke a four-game slide with a win, but it's had a few nights off to rest. OKC is red hot, winner of five straight, but after an upset win over Boston at home just last night, and when taking into account the revenge factor, everything points to this being a trap/letdown for the visiting side. And while I clearly believe the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-03-24 | Rutgers +9 v. Ohio State | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Rutgers. I'm not calling for an outright win. I'm not trying to pretend that Rutgers is a great team that's just had some bad breaks to open the year. Ohio State is the better team in this fight, but situationally this one sets up great for Rutgers to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample amount of points that they've been afforded in this one. The Scarlet Knights are 8-4 and the Buckeyes are 11-2. The Scarlet Knights are 1-1 on the road this year. The Buckeyes enter on a three-game win streak after beating WVU in OT in the Legends of Basketbal Showcase. Despite being 7-1 at home this year, I suspect a bit of a mental letdown here finally from Ohio State after that big victory. Rutgers may be 0-3 ATS in its last three, but it's a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS losses in a row. This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the SCARLET KNIGHTS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-02-24 | Magic v. Warriors -3 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Warriors. Typically I don't side with the public, but that's not always the case. I think the 15-16 Warriors (9-8 at home) are going to take advantage of this spot. The Magic are 19-13, but just 7-9 on the road. Orlando is going to get caught "looking ahead" here to its game at Sacramento tomorrow, followed by a contest at Denver. The Warriors come in desperate to snap a three game slide, but note that Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight SU losses in a row. With the Nuggets coming to town next, this becomes a very important "must win" game for the home side. Lay the points, the play is GOLDEN STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
01-01-24 | Texas -4 v. Washington | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 512 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GOY on Texas. Texas is 12-1 and Washington is 13-0. The Longhorns have played the tougher competition though and I'm expecting them to pull away down the stretch of this one for the comfortable win and cover once it's all said and done. The Longhorns hammered Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 Championship Game. QB Quinn Ewers finished with 3,161 passing yards and a 21:6 TD:INT. Defensively Texas concedes just 17.5 PPG. Washington barely got by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game by a score of 34-31. QB Michael Penix Jr. finished with 4,218 passing yards and a 33:9 TD:INT. The Huskies have been vulnerable at times defensively, entering conceding 23.6 PPG. Look for Ewers to match Penix Jr and for the Longhorns superior defense to be the difference-maker. Look for TEXAS to get some revenge here from last season. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-31-23 | Oakland +4 v. Youngstown State | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GOM on Oakland. While I feel the outright win is possible, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Golden Grizzlies are 6-8 overall and 3-5 on the road, while the Youngstown State Penguins are 10-3 overall, including 7-0 at home. This is a classic over-reaction though by the general betting public, with the majority of the money on the home side here. Oakland has played some tough teams and while it's 0-3 SU/ATS in its last three, note that the Grizzlies have performend well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Look for the hungrier visiting side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the points. Grab the points, the play is indeed on OAKLAND. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-30-23 | Blue Jackets v. Sabres -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCKLINE DESTRUCTION on the Sabres. This is a great "situational" play. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. Both teams need victories, but after Columbus beat Toronto 6-5 in OT last night, all signs point to a predictable letdown here in my opinion. Buffalo can't afford to look past this opportunity after B2B losses and with a tough upcoming three-game road trip starting tomorrow in Canada's capital. Everything points to Buffalo not only winning this game, but doing so in blowout fashion. Lay the 1.5 goals, the play is the SABRES on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-30-23 | CS Sacramento +11.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY GOM on Sacramento State. Sacramento State is 3-9, including 0-1 in Big Sky action, while Eastern Washington is 5-7, and 1-0 in league play. These teams are very even defensively, with Sacramento State conceding 72.7 PPG so far, and Eastern Washington allowing 72.9. The Eagles' stellar home numbers have the general betting public rushing to the window, but in my estimation this spread is now just a little TOO big for the home side to cover. So grab the points, the play is SACRAMENTO STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-30-23 | Toledo +3 v. Wyoming | Top | 15-16 | Win | 100 | 458 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GOM on Toledo. In this evenly matched contest, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Toledo finished 11-1, while Wyoming was 8-4. Toldeo fell 23-14 to Miami Ohio in its final outing. DeQuan Finn was a standout though with 273 passing yards and a TD. Overall Toldeo averages 33.6 PPG, while allowing 20.6. Wyoming is off the 42-6 win over Nevada in its final outing, with Andrew Peasley finishing with 165 passing yards. Overall the Cowboys average 26.1 PPG, while allowing 22.9. Whoever gets the start here, we're expecting Toledo's superior defensive play to be the differnce here. Grab the points, the play is indeed on the ROCKETS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-29-23 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Clippers. Normally I stay away from "public" plays, but despite the majority of the money on the Clippers tonight, I do really love the way this one sets up for the home side, so much so in fact that I've stamped this one with top-rated BOOKIEKILLER status. This is just a great situational play. LA does play with revenge here after a 105-101 loss here as an eight-point favorite in early November. Things have changed since then though. LA is 12-4 at home, while Memphis is just 8-9 on the road. Note as well the the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. LA broke a two-game slide with a win over Charlotte last time out, but it's lost three straight ATS, which is important to take note of as well as the Clippers are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. Memphis comes in off a humbling 142-105 loss at Denver just last night, snapping a four-game win streak. With a couple nights off before a home date on New Year's Eve vs. the Kings, this definitely sets up as a "trap" for the visitors as well in my opinion. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The play is indeed on LA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-29-23 | Clemson -4 v. Kentucky | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Clemson. Clemson will be missing five defensive starters, but the defense won't have to work too hard here facing Kentucky's offense that averages 28.6 PPG. The Tigers were still one of the stingiest defenses in allowing just 20.2 PPG. Clemson though will Cade Klubnik under center, and he had 2,580 passing yards and an 19:8 TD:INT and I think he'll get the better of his counterpart Devin Leary, who finished 2,440 yards and a 23:10 TD:INT. The weak point of the Wildcats was on the defensive side where they allowed 25.5 PPG. Clemson has something to prove here after a "down" year and I think Klubnik will deliver the goods. Lay the points, the play is indeed on the Tigers! Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-28-23 | Long Beach State v. CS-Fullerton +2.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG WEST GOM on Cal State Fullerton. While I clearly feel the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Big West Conference action here and I just can't understate how important I feel that the home-court advantage really will prove to be for the Titans. Cal State Fullerton comes in playing its best basketball of the season in winning five of its last six. With a tough upcoming road trip at Hawaii and UC Irvine, this contest takes on added importance for the Titans. LBSU is off five straight SU wins and three straight ATS victories, but that's significant to note here as Long Beach State is in fact just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS victories in a row. Grab the points, the play is CAL STATE FULLERTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-28-23 | Jets +8 v. Browns | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on the Jets. Everyone and their dog is all over the Browns right now, except for me and my clients this week. New York is 6-9 and coming off a season-saving 30-28 win over Washington X-Mas Eve and I see no reason not to believe that the visiting side can't carry that momentum over here. The Browns are 7-1 SU/ATS at home this year. They're 10-5 overall and they've defied the odds with Joe Flacco under center. But after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, I say for sure that it's now Cleveland that's VASTLY over-rated. The book is out on Flacco now for sure and I think New York's defense is going to throw a lot at Cleveland's aging pivot (also note that Cleveland is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Don't get me wrong, I like Flacco, and I like the Browns as a team this year. But I don't bet with my heart, I bet with my head and in my opinion, the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe here on Thursday night. Grab the points, the play is NEW YORK Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on NC State. I've had a lot of success so far this Bowl season betting against teams with several key players that happen to be out for the conrtest for varying reasons, and that's the case here once again in going against K-State. The Wolfpack have a few starters missing as well, but they do have their starting QB Brennan Armstrong under center, while the Wildcats will be without their starting QB Will Howard and most of their starting recieving corps. K-State will also be without offensive coordinator Collin Klein, who took the same job at Texas A&M. NC STATE'S defense will be more than up for the task of slowing down this toothless Wildcats' offense and while clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-27-23 | Virginia Tech -10 v. Tulane | Top | 41-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Virginia Tech. I've had a lot of success so far this Bowl Season playing against teams that have had a lot of transfers or missing players, and so I'm keeping true to that pattern here. With their head coach, starting quarterback, several offensive and defensive starters out for this game, I'm expecting the 11-2 Tulane Green Wave to get overwhelmed here. Virginia Tech is 6-6 and coach Brent Pry will be coaching his first for bowl game for this team. The Hokies won two of their final three games, beating Boston College 48-22 and Virginia 55-17, with a 35-28 competitive loss to NC State. QB Kyron Drones has nearly 2,000 yards passing and a great 15:3 TD:INT. The defense has been sharp as well in conceding only 24.3 PPG. I don't see Kai Horton, who was 31 of 62 for 485 yards, three TD's and two picks, doing much of anything against this well-prepared Hokies' defensive unit. Lay the points, the play is VIRGINIA TECH. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ROUT on Bowling Green. I've had a lot of success so far in the Bowls this year playing against teams that have a lot of transfers or players out for whatever reason. And that's going to be the case here, as Minnesota finished the year 5-7 and is even lucky to be here in the first place, combined with the fact that it's starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis has transferred already, meaning that Cole Kramer, who has played six total snaps this year, will get the call. Bowling Green finished 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS. It's 12.3 yardds per point is ranked 13th in the nation. QB Connor Bazelak has thrown just one INT in his last five games. The Green Falcons only concede 330.3 YPG as well, which ranks 25th. While the outright win is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with BOWLING GREEN. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-25-23 | Raiders v. Chiefs -10 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC WEST GOY on the Chiefs. The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-17 as 9.5-point favorites back in Week 12. They won and covered in that contest, but since then the Chiefs have gone 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. That's significant for us to note here though as the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. The Raiders are holding on by a thread at 6-8. They snapped a three-game slide with a 63-21 win over the Chargers, but let's take that victory with a "Grain of Salt." I had a play on the Chargers on Saturday and they easily covered the spread and they had a huge rebound on the defensive end like I predicted as well. The moral of the story was to not "overreact" to the loss the week before. And that's the case for Las Vegas's victory as well. Let's not read anything into that, as I'm instead expecting a major letdown here in this difficult road venue. KC still has a chance to finish 12-5 this year with upcoming games vs. Bengals and Chargers. I say the CHIEFS lay the hammer down in this one from start to finish. No mercy on Christmas Day. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-24-23 | Colts v. Falcons -2 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Falcons. It's a big game for both teams, but I'll argue a lot more so for the 6-8 Falcons than the 8-6 Colts. With nearly 75% of the public money on the visiting side, we're going full on contrarian here and going the other way. Off a 34-14 loss at Cincinnati, the Colts bounced back with an important victory at home over Pittsburgh last week. It's do or die essentially for the Falcons though after back-to-back divisional losses as a slight favorite. Of course, Atlanta benefits from being in a weak division, but it's "now or never" this weekend. ATL has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a SU/ATS divisional loss. Look for the hungry home side to pull away down the stretch, the play is on ATLANTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-23-23 | Lakers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Lakers have sucked since winning the Play In Tournament, but after four straight losses, I think LA will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread. The Lakers play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after a 133-110 loss to OKC on November 30th, and note that the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. LA has a game vs. the Celtics on X-Mas Day, but it won't be looking past this bounce-back revenge opportunity. The Thunder have won and covered in three straight against the best teams in the West, but with three nights off after this before another home game, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here. Grab the points, the play is LA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-23-23 | Bills v. Chargers +13 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRIME-TIME ROUT on the Chargers. The Bills are 8-6 and seem to be back on track after destroying the Cowboys last weekend. With a home game vs. New England next week, followed by a season finale at the Dolphins, will the visitors get caught "looking ahead?!" I think this is a classic "trap" game. "Letdown" spot + "look-ahead" spot = "trap game!" The Chargers got destroyed 63-21 by Las Vegas last week, which prompted the firing of its headcoach immediately after. Backup QB Easton Stick was in fact decent, finishing 23 of 32 for 257 yards, three TD's and one INT. Giff Smith will be the interim head coach, and I think the defense will bounce back here and that the "new coach" factor is something that can't be overlooked for the home side here. Look for Buffalo to go up early, but to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing Stick to repeat his performance from last week in garbage time when he was so efficient. Grab the points, the play is SAN DIEGO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-23-23 | Utah v. Northwestern +6 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Northwestern. So far I've had a lot of success playing against teams that have a lot of players out due to the transfer portal (or other reasons.) And that's going to be the main basis behind this particular pick as well, as 8-4 Utah will be missing several key players in this one, giving the Wildcats the distinct advantage in my opinion. Northwestern is led by senior QB Ben Bryant who finished with an 11:6 TD:INT. The offense averages 22.8 PPG, while the defense allows 24.2. Utes main QB Cam Rising tore his ACL and his back up Bryson Barnes will be in for this one. Barnes will enter the transfer portal after this contest. Utah finished averaging 24.5 PPG, while allowing 20.9. But as mentioned off the top, the Utes have plenty of other players opting out and leaving, including captain Cole Bishop (safety) and many other key players on both sides of the ball. Northwestern really came together over the final part of the season and averaged 30 or more points over its final three. While I do think the WILDCATS can win this one outright, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-23-23 | Vanderbilt +16.5 v. Memphis | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Vanderbilt. I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the home side will take the No. 23 ranked home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead to the X-Mas Break. Memphis has now won four straight. Vanderbilt on the other hand has dropped three straight, both SU and ATS. That however is significant for us to take note of as the Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Vanderbilt won't be happy with its 63-62 loss to Western Carolina. The Tigers are clearly the better team here, but I say everything points to a second half "lapse." No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is VANDY. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -6.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Troy. Troy finished 11-2, while Duke was 7-5. This one sets up really well for the Trojans, who I expect will have "no mercy" on their undermanned opponent today. This play is based 100% entirely on the fact that Duke has seven starters out for this one, including QB Riley Leonard and its top two RB's in Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore. They're also missing five defensive starters. This is essentially a "home game" for the Trojans as well, which clearly works in their favor as well. Troy has scored at least 30 points in four straight games and clearly have the superior QB under center in Gunnar Watson, who has a 27:5 TD:INT. The Blue Devils' weakness on defense is against the pass as well. I'm predicting a blowout. Lay the points, the play is TROY. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-22-23 | Suns +3.5 v. Kings | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Suns. Phoenix has struggled this year because of injury issues. It's main line-up has barely played together. I base my picks on many things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by a strong ATS trend and that's the reason why I'm taking the points here. Phoenix 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent, and the Suns just fell 114-106to the Kings on December 8th. With the Wolves coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" as well. Grab the points, the play is PHOENIX. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL PLAY on Georgia Tech. Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams finished strong down the stretch. Both teams have weak defenses, and strong offenses. The difference though is that Georgia Tech played some really stiff competition down the stretch, and UCF was barely holding on by a thread to several weaker teams. The Yellow Jackets are going to have success running the ball today as well. Finally, note that the Golden Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five as a single-digit favorite and just 2-3 SU in those contest (and three of those five games finished within a FG.) In an evenly matched contest that I could see going either way, I'm grabbing the points. The play is GEORGIA TECH. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-21-23 | Kent State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER SHOCKER on Kent State. Both teams enter 7-3. One enters "under the radar" though, and it's not Oregon. The Golden Flashes average 84.3 PPG, while allowing 72.5. Oregon averages 78.5 PPG, while allowing 71. I just can't see Oregon pulling away in this one. I'll stop short in calling for the outright victory, but everything points to a much tighter contest than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion. So grab the points, the play is indeed on KENT STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-21-23 | Syracuse v. South Florida +3 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on USF. This is a great situational play. Both teams ended with 6-6 records, but since the regular season ended, the Orange have gone through some significant changes, while not much at all has changed for the Bulls. Because of this fact, I'm going to grab the points, but will obviously not be shocked by the outright upset. USF finished the regular season with a 48-14 win over Charlotte to punch eligibility. QB Byrum Brown finished with 3,078 passing yards and a 23:11 TD:INT. The USF defense catches a break here facing the Orange, who fired their former coach Dino Babers and replaced him with Nunzio Campanile, who will turn to Braden Davis at QB. Garrett Shrader underwent shoulder surgery after winning against Wake Forest. Davis attempted one pass and rushed the ball twice this season. Look for the Bulls' offense be just too much for this patchwork Orange offense to keep up to down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is USF! Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-20-23 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Jets | 2-5 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK PUCK-LINE BEATDOWN on the Wings. The Wings play with revenge here after a 4-1 loss at home to the Jets in October, and they're 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. They've lost three straight and will be desperate to break the slide here. The Jets are a great team, but with the Bruins coming to town before X-Mas, I say this sets up as a "trap" for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The play is DETROIT on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-19-23 | CS-Northridge v. UCLA -17 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on UCLA. Cal State Northridge is 7-3, while UCLA is 5-4. The Matadors are 3-2 on the road, while UCLA is 4-0 at home. CSUN held on for an 80-75 win over Utah Tech last time out, but I think it'll struggle to keep pace here with the home side. UCLA has had its up and downs to start the season, but the bottom line is that it's faced some really stiff competition, like Gonzaga, Villanova and Ohio State. With upcoming games vs. Maryland and then the conference schedule getting underway, this is a final "tune-up" for UCLA and I expect it to make the most of it. Lay the points with confidence, the play is indeed on UCLA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-19-23 | UTSA -12 v. Marshall | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE WINNER on UTSA. The starting QB for Marshall is out, so that means that Cole Pennington will be a "game manager" in this one for the Herd. They do have 1,000 yard rusher Rasheed Ali though. And the Herd features a strong group of WR, but UTSA is strong against the run, and I think Marshall will be just too one-dimensional and predictable on offense ultimately. UTSA Frank Harris will play the final game of his College career here and UTSA is seeking its first bowl win in its last five tries. Look for Harris to be a difference-maker in this one and lay the points with confidence. The play is UTSA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-18-23 | Tenn-Martin +6.5 v. Evansville | Top | 91-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Tennessee Martin. This one sets up really well for the Skyhawks from a situational stand point and in a game that I see "coming down to the wire," I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Tennessee Martin is 6-5 and comes in "under the radar" a bit here in my estimation facing the 8-2 Evansville Purple Aces. The Skyhawks are off a competitive 81-67 loss to NC State, easily covering the 19 points and I think they're not getting enough respect here either. Evansville has faced some stiff competition this year as well, but the Skyhawks balance on both ends of the court makes them a possibility for an outright upset here. In this evenly matched contest, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with TENNESSEE MARTIN. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-18-23 | Western Kentucky +5 v. Old Dominion | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on WKU. WKU finished 7-5 and ODU finished 6-6. WKU is led by Austin Reed who puts up 331.7 yards per game passing. Defensively they allow 338.3 YPG. ODU will be without All-American linebacker Jason Henderson and over their last three games the Monarchs have averaged just 313 total yards per game led by Grant Wilson. WKU comes in more balanced at the moment and while I do think an outright is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with WESTERN KENTUCKY. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-17-23 | Commanders +7 v. Rams | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR on the Commanders. Outright victory?! While anything is possible, my official call here will be to grab as many points as you can. This is a great "situational" play. Washington is 4-9, including 3-4 on the road. It's 5-2 ATS away from friendly confines though. The Rams are 6-7 SU, 3-3 at home, and 3-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd as well. The Commanders have fallen apart, but haven't quite thrown in the white towel yet. Off four straight SU losses, and three straight ATS setbacks, note that Washington is in fact 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS setbacks in a row. Grab the points, the play is WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-16-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 118-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Thunder. This one sets up really well for the Thunder in my opinion. OKC is 15-8, including 7-4 on the road. Its two game win streak came to an end last time out in Sacramento, falling 128-123. The Thunder play with revenge after a 128-95 loss at home to the Nuggets back in October, but that's significant to note here as OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Denver is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but I say it comes in a bit complacent here and gets caught looking ahead to the Mavericks coming to town next. Grab the points, the play is OKC. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-16-23 | New Mexico State v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL WINNER on Fresno State. New Mexico State finished 10-4, while Fresno State finished 8-4. The Aggies played the Liberty Flames in their last game and their starting QB Diego Pavia went 11 of 16 for 188 yards and three TD's, while also leading the rushing attack with 45 yards and a TD. Pavia actually left that game early with injury and Blaze Berlowitz went for 134 yards a TD and an INT. The question mark surrounding Pavia though throws a monkey wrench into the Aggies bowl plans though ultimatley in my estimation. Whether he plays or not, he won't be at 100% health. Frenso State's Mikey Keene leads an offense that 29.9 PPG and I think he's the correct call here for sure. While the outright is possible, let's grab the points with FRESNO STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-16-23 | North Carolina -1.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 83-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on UNC. This is a big game, but one that favors UNC in my opinion. Both teams are 7-2 as they enter this CBS Sports Classic contest. UNC's two losses have come against Villanova (83-81) and UConn (87-67.) In between those losses are three quality wins. One of the Wildcats' losses cam against lowly UNC Wilmington (80-73.) UNC has more talent on the floor here today though (Armando Bacot), and I believe it's already more "battle-tested." Lay the short points, the play is NORTH CAROLINA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-16-23 | Vikings +3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF. GOW on the Vikings. Both teams are 7-6. The Vikes are 5-2 SU on the road and 5-0-2 ATS. Cincinnati 4-3 SU at home and 3-3-1 ATS. Nick Mullens replaced Josh Dobbs in the fourth quarter in last week's 3-0 win over the Raiders and he had 83 yards on 9 of 13 passing. I just think he's going to be able to match pace with Benagls' backup Jake Browning, wh granted has been great so far in place of Joe Burrow. But let's be really clear about this, Browning is no Burrow. And now with two games out on this guy to get some good footage on him, I expect this Minnesota defense, which concedes only 18.6 PPG (5th), to give Browning a hell of a time today. The bottom line is that this QB "mismatch" is in fact a lot more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This is a great situational play and while I do think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-16-23 | Crystal Palace v. Manchester City -2 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Manchester City on the spread option. This is a case of David vs. Goliath, but in this version I'm predicting that the Giant will stomp its overmatched opponent through the pitch. Manchester City returns to EPL action on top form after a Champions League victory in Belgrade and while it has some injury issues, so to does Crystal Palace. Manchester City has not been at its best in EPL play of late, as last week's 2-1 win over Luton snapped a three-game winless streak. But they're unbeaten their last 18 here at the Etihad. I expect a beatdown of lop-sided propotions. Lay the goals on MANCHESTER CITY on the SPREAD OPTION. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-13-23 | Creighton v. UNLV +13.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER SHOCKER on UNLV. As primarily a "situational" capper, these are the types of games I keep my eyes open for. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the stage is now set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This is part of the Jack Jones Classic. I think 8-1 Creighton takes the foot off the gas here and allows 3-4 UNLV to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Creighton is great on both sides of the ball, but everything points to a letdown in my opinion as it looks to close out non-conference play. The Rebels have fallen WAY short of expectations this year, as they already have three losses as favorites. Winning can lead to complacency and losing leads to desperation. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is indeed on UNLV. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-13-23 | Penguins v. Canadiens +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the Canadiens PUCKLINE. I'm going to lay the price here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset or anything either though, as this is a great spot for the Habs. Pittsburgh is a public team by nature, but the Pens are off the 4-2 home win over the Coyotes just last night. Prevoius to that they lost three straight on the road. They also have a much more high-profile game at Toronto after this, setting this up as a "trap" for the visitors. Montreal has been trading/wins losses over its last five games and off a 3-1 loss here two nights ago to Nashville, this pattern may well continue here. Either way, in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm laying the price for MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-11-23 | Packers v. Giants +6 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Giants. Of course this one "means more" to Green Bay. It's 6-6 and it's won three straight, including a big 27-19 victory over KC last week as a six-point dog. The Packers though are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Now they're a big favorite on the road on Monday night facing a down and out 4-8 Giants team. But New York won't be rolling over here in my estimation. Quite the opposite in fact. The Giants have won two straight. Last week they beat New England 10-7. The Packers are now the "flavor of the week" it seems after their recent surge, but I'm going contrarian here and expecting the Giants to relish trying to play the role of spoiler here vs. their young counterpart in Jordan Love. In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-11-23 | Delaware v. Robert Morris +5 | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG BOB on Robert Morris. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. The Blue Hens are 6-3 SU, including 3-1 on the road. They're 4-0 ATS. I say this string of ATS success away from friendly confines comes to an end here finally vs. 2-7 Robert Morris. I say Delaware is primed for a letdown here after its 87-80 upset win over Xavier. The Colonials are 4-4 ATS. They're competing hard despite their win/loss record, most recently falling 87-80 to Canisius. I think this is a good matchup for the home side. The Blue Hens are getting a little TOO much repsect here now after their most recent upset and while I do think the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ROBERT MORRIS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 55 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST GOM on the Cowboys. These two teams are really evenly matched. In all honesty, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these sides to win on "any given Sunday." But Dallas plays with revenge from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the start of November, it plays at home and it's playing the better overall "football" right now (Dallas off four straight wins, including a 41-35 victory over Seattle last time out. Philadelphia is off the humbling 42-19 home loss to the 49ers.) And when you add on the fact that over 60% of the early public money is on the visitors, then all of these situational factors add up to indeed make the COWBOYS my No. 1 NFC EAST TOP SIDE play for December. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-10-23 | Grambling State +22.5 v. Washington State | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Grambling State. I'm a situational handicapper for the most part. I always look for what I feel to be undervalued, or overvalued teams based upon where the early money goes, and then I look at trends and other factor based criteria to make my decision. In this case, I think that 7-1 Washington State will get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today, to back-to-back neutral site games before the bulk of the conference schedule begins. Grambling State is just 2-6 SU, and 0-6 ATS. It's coming off five straight SU/ATS losses in a row, but that's significant to note here as the Tigers are in fact 8-2 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. Grambling State has been a big underdog in most of its games and it's faced some stiff competion, including back-to-back road games at Troy and Dayton. This is a few too many points to be giving up now, the play is indeed on GRAMBLING STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-10-23 | Bucs +2 v. Falcons | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC SOUTH GOY on the Bucs. It's a big game, because this division is viewed as being pretty terrible, with each team still having a shot at winning it. I guess the Panthers have no chance, but certainly the 5-7 Bucs and the 6-6 Falcons are neck-and-neck right now. Tampa though plays with revenge after a 16-13 loss at home to the Falcons in October, but note that the Bucs are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Atlanta's off B2B wins, but I'm not convinced about Desmond Ridder whatsoever. The Falcons' defense has been great, but I still think Baker Mayfield will be able to move the ball today. Tampa's defensive numbers are completely comparable here and with nearly 75% of the early money on the home side, I'm definitely going contrarian. Grab the points, the play is TAMPA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-09-23 | Rangers v. Capitals +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PUCKLINE BLOOD-BATH on the Capitals. New York has been unbelievable. It's 18-5-0-1 overall, including 10-3-0-1 on the road. One area that bettors will be quick to point out that the Rangers have struggled in though is in the PUCKLINE department, going just 9-14 so far. The Capitals are only 8-14 on the PL. They're 12-8-2-1 overall though, including 7-4-1-1 at home. The Rangers get caught looking ahead to their home game vs. the red hot Kings as well tomorrow night. Great situational play here that leads to great value with WASHINGTON on the PUCKLINE option in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-09-23 | St. Mary's +5.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Saint Mary's. While I feel the outright win is a distinct possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can here with the visiting side. The Gaels are 4-5 SU while the Rams are 9-0. CSU is ranked 13th and has already beaten Washington, Colorado, Creighton and BC. Saint Mary's snapped a two-game slide with a 70-57 win over Cleveland State last time out. The Gaels lost this game 62-60 last year as 12-point favorites. That humbling setback won't be forgotten at this point. The Rams have hit a favorable part of their schedule, but it's now Colorado State which I feel is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers. This one has "trap" written all over it. As stated off the top, I love the way this one sets up situationally for the hungry visiting side and while I do feel that the outright upset is a very real possibility, let's grab the points and expect a battle until the end. The play is SAINT MARY'S. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-09-23 | Army v. Navy +2.5 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -104 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH on Navy. This year's annual battle mean's a little bit more, as each side enters at 5-6. The winner will become "eligible." In this evenly matched contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. These teams have five wins each over the last ten in the series, but this one will mean a lot to the Midshipmen after Army won 20-17 in OT last year as a 2.5-point dog. Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline did not play in last week's blowout loss to SMU for Navy, but each is expected to be available for this one. Army last played back on November 18th, and I think the Black Knights come out flat here. In their 28-21 win over Coastal Carolina, they only attempted two passes. Navy has been pretty stout against the run, allowing 121.91 YPG. With their two senior QB's available and playing with revenge from last season, I do indeed like the MIDSHIPMEN to cover in 2023. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-07-23 | Kings v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Habs on the PUCKLINE. I think Montreal on the puckline is the correct call here. The outright is of course possible, but great value here at this price in getting the extra goal-and-a-half. LA is 15-4-1-2 overall, and a very unrealistic 10-0-0-0 on the road. Hats off to the Kings, I simply don't feel this streak is sustainable much longer. LA is off the 4-3 OT win at Columbus, but with much more high-profile back-to-back games at the Isles and Rangers this weekend, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot, but also a "look ahead." When you add those two factors together you invariably get "trap game!" The Habs snapped a two-game slide with a 4-2 win over Seattle here last time out and they do indeed play with revenge after a 4-0 loss at LA at the end of November (and note that Montreal is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent.) All of these situational factors collide and work in favor of MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE option this evening. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-06-23 | Massachusetts v. Towson +3 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* MASTERPIECE on Towson. Here's a great early season "situational" play. Massachusetts is 4-1 this year, but now finally hits the road for its first true road game here. Towson is 3-5 so far, but 2-0 at home. I think the home floor advantage really will matter here. The Tigers have played the tougher competition to this point as well. While I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with TOWSON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-03-23 | Eastern Kentucky +4.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BATTLE on Eastern Kentucky. Here at the Diddle Arena, I'm expecting a battle until the end. EKU is 3-2 and WKU is 5-3. EKU is off the 77-76 win over Troy. It averages 91.2 PPG, while allowing 75.8. WKU is averaging 81.1 PPG, while allowing 74.4. This really is a case of this being a bad matchup for the Hilltoppers. Look for EKU's faster-pace and high-scoring ways to keep it competitive in this contest late. Grab the points, the play is EKU. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV GOM on the Texans. Houston is now 6-5 after a tough 24-21 home loss here to Jacksonville last weekend. Previous to that the Texans had won three in a row. I think the home side gets back on track here this weekend in another tough matchup. At one point this year the Broncos lost 70-20 to Miami, but now the Broncos enter on a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS.) It's Denver that's now the over-rated team here. Completely overlooked by the oddsmakers and most of the public to this point, they majority of the early public money sees them backing the "flavor of the week" and grabbing the points. But Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last nine after five or more SU victories in a row. Look for Houston rookie CJ Stroud to put the pressure on Russell Wilson and for the home side to eventually pull away for the comfortable win and cover. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-02-23 | Michigan -23 v. Iowa | Top | 26-0 | Win | 100 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Michigan. With a spread and a total like this, what are the oddsmakers trying to tell us? If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly know the storylines for each team heading into this one, the cast of characters on each side, and their strengths and weaknesses. And if you don't know, then just go quickly read an ESPN article on this game, and then come back to my succinct opinion on why I believe that the Wolverines are going to trash the Hawkeyes today. With a spread like this, clearly, no one is giving Iowa a chance. However, early money has nearly 70% of the action on the underdog here. They also don't think this is going to be a very high-scoring game with an O/U like this. So they don't think Iowa will put many, if ANY points on the board in this one. The Hawkeyes are no joke. Their defense is fantastic. But I just don't see the Wolverines slipping up here. In fact, I'm expecting them to put on a show. JJ McCarthy has only thrown four INTs this season, and he didn't have any in last week's win over Ohio State. This Michigan team looks after the football and is just damn efficient in all phases. Iowa doesn't stand a chance here, so lay the points with confidence. The play is MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-02-23 | CS-Northridge v. Northern Colorado -3.5 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on Northern Colorado. I like the way this one sets up for the home side. CSU Northridge is 5-3, while Northern Colorado is 3-4. The Bears are 2-1 at home. They're off a tight 74-72 loss as 4.5-point dogs at San Diego last time out. They've faced some stiff competition, including Colorado State and New Mexico State. The same can't be said for the Matadors, who somehow pulled off the 80-69 upset road win at Pacific last time out (but note that they're just 3-6 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS road win as a dog vs. an opponent.) These teams played last year and Northern Colorado won 70-63 on the road. Now at home here in 2023, I think we'll see an even bigger blowout this time around. Lay the points, the play is NORTHERN COLORADO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-02-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -12.5 | Top | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 143 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Texas. The Big 12 Championship game features two really good teams, but one's a lot better than the other. And that's why we have a really big spread here. There are a lot of implications for each side here, but the biggest one is that if Texas wins this game, then it'll be on the short-list for a CFP spot. If you're wagering on this game, you likely already know the cast of characters on each team and the strengths and weaknesses from each side. Texas probably doesn't deserve a spot in the CFP, but I do think it can get the job done here. I just can't see the Cowboys keeping pace down the stretch. The Longhorns lost to OKST last year by a score of 41-34 as 6.5-point favorites, and that fact also leads me to believe that they'll keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish. In my opinion, this will turn out to be a rout once it's all said and done. Lay the points, the play is TEXAS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
12-01-23 | Liberty v. College of Charleston +5.5 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on Charleston. The 6-1 Liberty Flames are getting a little TOO much respect from the oddsmakers now in my opinion. The Cougars though come in off a momentum-building 84-78 win over Kent State. So far Charleston averages 71.8 PPG, while allowing 74.8. Liberty is off its first loss of the season, falling 83-58 at FAU as a 7.5-point underdog. And with nearly 85% of the early public money backing the home side, we're going to definitely go contrarian with this wager. I think the hungry COUGARS keep it super tight until the final moments, so grab the points. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-30-23 | Creighton v. Oklahoma State +8 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBB UNDERDOG TOP SIDE on Oklahoma State. Creighton is 4-1. While they've played two neutral site tournament games, the Blue Jays have yet to play a true road game this year. This is the first. Oklahoma State is 3-3 this year, including 3-1 at home. The Cowboys are coming off B2B blowout wins, posting 188 points in the process. Look for Oklahoma State's offense to be a difference-maker here at home. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is OKLAHOMA STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-30-23 | Seahawks +9.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on the Hawks. This game means a lot for both teams, but more so for Seattle, which is 6-5 and barely holding on to the sixth playoff spot. Dallas is 8-3 and sitting one spot ahead of the Hawks for fifth spot. Seattle lost a key game 31-13 to the 49ers last week, and with a date vs. San Francisco after this, this almost becomes a "must win," "do-or-die" type of game for the Hawks. Seattle is so far averaging 20.8 PPG, while allowing 22.6. The Cowboys rolled to a 45-10 win over Washington last week. The Cowboys are averaging 31.5 PPG, while allowing 16.8. Seattle is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-30-23 | Hornets +8.5 v. Nets | Top | 129-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on Charlotte. I think Charlotte catches the Nets at the right time here. Brooklyn comes in off three straight victories, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off three SU wins in a row. And with red hot Orlando coming to town next, the chances of the home side "looking ahead" are high as well. Charlotte does indeed play with revenge after the 133-121 setback as a two-point home dog on October 30th. Note though that the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Off three straight ATS losses in a row, I think the hungry visiting side will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded. Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-29-23 | CS-Northridge v. Pacific -2.5 | Top | 80-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Pacific. CSU Northridge is 4-2, but after two straight road victories, I'm expecting it to take a step back here finally. Pacific is 4-1 overall, but 0-4 ATS in its last four. Expect that lop-sided number to change here though in this favorable home matchup. The Matadors are off the 84-48 blowout win over Mississippi Valley State and so far average 80.2 PPG, while allowing 70. Pacific avoided a near-disaster by holding on for a 68-65 OT win over Mississippi Valley State. The Tigers are averaging 67.4 PPG, while allowing 73.7. Look for the Matadors to finally take a step back here and for PACIFIC to play a full four-quarters. Lay the points. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-27-23 | Northern Illinois v. Northwestern -11.5 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE CBB GOW on Northwestern. NIU is 5-1 and Northwestern is 4-1. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS after dispatching DePaul 89-79 as a 3.5-point dog last time out. NIU has quickly become a fan favorite, but now I think it's getting too much respect here. Northwestern has faced some stiff competition. Last time out it was a 3.5-point dog and it lost 66-57 to Mississippi State in a tourney game. With Purdue coming to town next, the Wildcats can't afford to look past this opportunity. Look for NIU's perfect ATS run to finally come to an end here, as Northwestern's superior play on both ends of the court will prove to be too much for the visiting side to keep up to. Lay the points, the play is Northwestern. (additional analysis available.) Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-27-23 | Troy State v. Eastern Kentucky -5 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Eastern Kentucky. Troy is 3-3 adn EKU is 2-2. The Trojans are off the 80-67 win over Grambling State. Overall Troy averages 86.5 PPG. EKU is going to be the "hungrier" team here though after back-to-back losses. Most recently it was a 76-64 loss to Prairie View A&M last time out. Despite the losses though, note that the Colonels are still averaging 94.8 PPG this year. These are two .500 teams, but EKU has a major advantage at home. Look for the Colonels pace to be too much for the Trojans to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is EKU. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-26-23 | Bulls +4 v. Nets | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Bulls. As primarily a situational handicapper, this is one of the types of "situations" that I'm always keeping my eyes out for. I love the way this one sets up for struggling and revenge-minded Chicago. With 80% of the public money on Brooklyn, of course, as a contrarian as well, I instantly gravitate towards Chicago in that situation. But Brooklyn is also off a highly satisfying 112-97 win here just last night over Miami and I think it'll now come out flat-footed here in the second game of the B2B. No such luxury for Chicago, which has lost three in a row SU/ATS after a 121-108 loss at Toronto last time out. Note though that the Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They fell 109-107 at home to Brooklyn back at the start of the month as 4.5-point favorites, but note that Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. A great "situational" play makes the BULLS my 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-25-23 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCKLINE BLOWOUT on the Canadiens. Montreal has won two straight on the road, including a 3-2 shootout victory last night in San Jose. I think the surging Habs catch the Kings at the right time here. LA is no doubt the early surprise team, entering off four straight wins and 12-3 overall, including a 5-2 victory at Anaheim last night. LA has three whole nights off after this though before another home game, and I think it gets caught "looking ahead" here. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the CANADIENS on the PUCKLINE option. (additional analysis available) Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-25-23 | Evansville v. SE Missouri State +6.5 | Top | 93-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Southeast Missouri State. Evansville is 5-0 SU/ATS, but off an 85-77 OT win over Chattanooga last night, I think the Purple Aces will have a difficult time covering this spread vs. Southeast Missouri State, which plays with revenge after a 76-57 loss at home to Evansville two weeks ago. The Redhawks snapped their three-game slide to open the season with a 70-68 win over Central Arkansas last time out, and they're 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Round 2 is going to be a lot closer, so grab the points with Southeast Missouri State. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-24-23 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nuggets. Houston is 7-6, while Denver is 10-5. The Rockets snapped a three-game slide with a 111-91 win at Memphis last time out. But after ten straight ATS covers in a row, I think the home side is getting too much respect here vs. the defending champs, who do indeed play with revenge here after falling 107-104 as five-point favorites in mid-November (but note that Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Denver is just 1-3 on this road trip. It won't be taking anything for granted tonight. I foresee a blowout of epic proportions. Lay the points, the play is DENVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-24-23 | TCU +10 v. Oklahoma | Top | 45-69 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOW on TCU. I'm a "situational" handicapper at hear, and this one falls right into my wheelhouse. There are a lot of external things going on in this contest, and when you take into account all of the different factors, I do definitely feel we're getting great value here by grabbing the points. First off, TCU is 5-6. This is it. The odds are against it here facing the 9-2 Sooners, but clearly the Horned Frogs won't be rolling over. And for Oklahoma, it barely held on for the 31-24 win at BYU last week as a 24-point favorite. I had BYU in that one. The Sooners though could easily be distracted here, as they'll need either Texas or Oklhoma State to falter this week to get a chance at the conference championship game. And they're both double-digit home favorites. It's not going to happen, and so I absolutely wonder where the energy levels for the home side will be at in this one, despite it being Seniors night. Regardless, in a contest that I see being much more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I'm grabbing the points with TCU. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC WEST GOY on the Hawks. Seattle is 6-4 and second the AFC West, trailing the 49ers. Seattle is off the 17-16 loss to the Rams. The Hawks though have been trading good outings with bad ones over their last four games and I say that pattern continues here at home on the short week and the national stage. San Fran snapped a three-game slide with back-to-back wins now, but with a game at Philadelphia up next, followed be a home rematch vs. the Hawks, will the 49ers get caught a little unprepared here on the short week, on the road and with so much to look forward to?! The possibility is definitely there. They say that divisional contests always mean the most and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. Look for the hungry HAWKS to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door here at home with the healthy spread that they've been afforded on Thanksgiving night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-23-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Boise State. This is the final game of the opening day of play at the ESPN Events Invitational. Virginia Tech is 3-1 after a 98-76 win over Wofford at home. Boise State is 2-1 SU after falling 85-68 to Clemson in its most recent action. So far in the early going the Hokies are averaging 83.8 PPG, while allowing 63.5. The Broncos are averaging 73.3 PPG, while allowing 66. Virginia Tech's wins have come over nobodies. In the one game they lost to South Carolina (at a neutral court), they were favored by 6.5. Boise State has already faced two tough teams in San Francisco and Clemson and I say it's the Broncos who should in fact be favored here. Grab the points, the play is indeed on BOISE STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +10 | Top | 17-7 | Push | 0 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC GOM on Mississippi State. I'm banking on the 5-6 Bulldogs digging deep and, at the very least, keeping this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Ole Miss is 9-2 and in second place in the SEC West Division. Ole Miss hammered Louisiana-Monroe 35-3 last week, after getting smashed 52-17 to Georgia the week before. Ole Miss averages 36.5 PPG, while allowing 23.7. While the Rebels are 6-4-1 ATS overall this year, they're 0-2-1 ATS over their last three. Mississippi State is 1-6 in SEC games. The oddsare are against the Bulldogs here, but they won't be rolling over. After losing three straight they bounced back in fine form last week with a 41-20 win over Southern Miss. Overall Ole Miss has averaged 23.2 PPG, while allowing 27.5. The Egg Bowl has been decided by ten points or less in five of the last six in the series, and in my opinion all signs point to this pattern continuing. Grab the points, the play is MISSISSIPPI STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-22-23 | Clippers v. Spurs +9 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BOOKIEKILLER on the Spurs. The Clippers are 5-7 and 1-6 on the road, while the Spurs are 3-11, including 1-7 at home. Two bad teams collide here, but I think San Antonio will put up a good fight and cover easily with the large spread that it's been afforded. San Antonio though does in fact play with double revenge here after losing 124-99 here to the Clippers two nights ago, as well as a 123-83 setback in LA back on October 29th. The Clippers return home after this for three straight, and I think they get caught looking ahead. Look for the revenge-minded home side to post, at the very least, the comfortable ATS cover. The play is SAN ANTONIO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-22-23 | Ole Miss -3 v. Temple | 77-76 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Ole Miss. Ole Miss is 4-0 and Temple is 3-1. The Rebels survived a scare last time out by holding off Sam Houston 70-67, but now I expect them to be "on point" here after that near disaster. The Owls are 1-1 at home, losing 78-73 to Columbia last time out. As soon as Temple played someone half decent, it completely crumbled. It was a 12.5-point favorite over Columbia, but it got crushed. Ole Miss hasn't faced anyone difficult yet either, but it'll have its opportunities here from range finally, and I expect it to dominate in the paint as well. Lay the points, the play is OLE MISS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 24-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC GOW on EMU. The big storyline here is that EMU is 5-6 and can become bowl eligibile with one more victory. The Eagles kept their hopes alive with a 30-27 win at home over Akron last weekend, setting up this pivotal contest. The 3-8 Bulls can only play spoiler here, despite being the ones that are in fact favored in this game. They're off three straight SU/ATS losses and I expect EMU QB Austin Smith to take advantage of this weak home side defense. While I do believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab the points with EMU. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-21-23 | Syracuse +12.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 57-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOURNEY PLAY on Syracuse. The Orange are 3-1 and the Bulldogs are 2-1. Syracuse though is 0-4 ATS, while Gonzaga is 1-1. This is the consolation part of the bracket for the Maui Invitational. Syracuse suffered its first SU loss of the season last time out by falling 73-56 to Tennessee, but note that the Orange are 3-1 ATS in their last four after a SU/ATS loss as an underdog. Gonzaga also lost its first game of the year in a 73-63 setback to Purdue. Syracuse has the personel to stretch this Zags defense and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I do see the backdoor being left open for the hungry underdogs to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is SYRACUSE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-20-23 | Eagles +3 v. Chiefs | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE ROUT on the Eagles. KC won the Super Bowl last year vs. the Eagles, but Philadelphia has had this one circled on its calendar since then. Both teams have looked great this year, but Philadelphia overall has looked like it has played with a lot more chemistry to this point. Revenge plays a big part in me taking this pick. It's not the Super Bowl. It's not the Playoffs. It's a BIG game, but it's one which I see coming "right down to the wire." I'm grabbing the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-20-23 | Bucks v. Wizards +9.5 | 142-129 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE DESTRUCTION on the Wizards. This is a great situational play. Milwaukee is clearly the better team at 9-4. The Wizards just 2-10, including only 1-4 at home. But the Bucks are just a mediocre 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. The Bucks are coming off four straight SU wins and three straight ATS victories, but with a much more high-profile game at East-leading Boston on Wednesday, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look-ahead," which when you add those two factors together you invariable get a "trap game." Look for the hungry home side to hang around late and to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover. Grab the points, the play is WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
11-20-23 | NC-Wilmington v. Murray State +6 | 83-81 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT SUPER WINNER on Murray State. Murray State is 2-1 and UNC Wilmington is 3-0. These early season Tournament games are always interesting. With nearly 80% of the money on the Seahawks though, I definitely feel that we're getting great value here on the Raers, who enter off the 86-81 loss to WKU. While I do feel an outright win is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MURRAY STATE. Good luck, NP |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $995 |
Ray Monohan | $822 |
Jim Feist | $505 |
ProSportsPicks | $276 |
Marc Lawrence | $253 |
Jack Jones | $175 |
Kyle Hunter | $80 |
Big Al McMordie | $66 |
Ross Benjamin | $55 |
Rocky Atkinson | $43 |