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This is a 1% TOP on the Mariners.

Seattle is 5.5 games back in the Wildcard, while Texas is 1.5 games back. 

An important series, and an important game. 

I think Gilbert will match deGrom inning for inning, though.

And note that Texas is 33-42 on the road this year, while Seattle is 39-35 at home.

I like SEATTLE to find a way to get the job done in this early afternoon game.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% FIRST-FIVE SUPER BLOWOUT on the Padres.

The Padres are now a 0.5 game back of the final Wild Card spot in the NL after taking the first two games of this series.

I don't foresee any upsets here, as I look for Buehler to come out and establish himself here early at home over struggling counterpart Kent.

The play is SAN DIEGO FIRST FIVE INNINGS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Astros.

This is the finale of a four-game series and I like the home side to win it and move to 3-1 over that span.

Luis Castillo has been a complete "gas can" since coming over to the White Sox and I don't see the struggling pitcher just "throwing a switch" here and solving all his issues in under a week.

Hunter Brown at home at this price is the correct call in my opinion; remember, the White Sox are now 32-39 on the road, while the Astros have improved to 35-36 at home.

I'm banking on HOUSTON coming in prepared and for Brown to get the better of his clearly struggling counterpart; lay the price with confidence.

Good luck, NP 

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the New York Yankees.

These teams have been pretty evenly matched this season. Boston did sweep New York in four games in their last series, though.

I like Cam Schlittler here, he's 11-6 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He's faced Boston three times, as well, and posted a 0.96 ERA. 

Boston has the slightly better offense on paper, but the Yanks' are still a much bigger power-hitting team, with 183 home runs, compared to just 136 for the Red Sox.

Patrick Sandoval is just 1-2 with a 4.54 ERA for Boston, and he's 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA on the road.

I think NEW YORK finds a way to get the job done, despite not having a couple "big bats" in the line-up tonight.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER BLOWOUT on the Cubs.

The Mariners inconsistencies, especially in their bullpen of late, will continue here facing Boyd and the hungry Cubs in my opinion.

All things considered, I feel this to be the very definition of "great line value."

The play is on CHICAGO. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER SPECIAL on the Chicago Cubs.

St. Louis took two of three from Philadelphia this week, but I think it'll struggle in the opener of this divisional series on the road vs. Cubs' starter Clay Holmes, who is 4-5 with a 2.86 ERA.  

The visitors counter with the volatile Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15 ERA), who was shelled for five runs over five innings in a loss to the lowly Rockies on Saturday.

All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger; lay the price with confidence on the CUBS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the Chicago White Sox.

Look for the WHITE SOX to bounce back here after last night's series opening loss.

Castillo at home is the correct call in this matchup over Lowder; lay the price with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the Orioles.

A major mismatch on the mound leads to a series sweep for BALTIMORE this afternoon.

Lay the price with confidence. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL WINNER on the Mariners.

Both teams come in hot, but look for Emerson Hancock to get the better of his counterpart at home.

The play is on SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BOOKIEKILLER on the Dodgers.

Look for Sheehan and the DODGERS to dig deep here and to avoid the series sweep, as Boston finally gets caught looking ahead to a night off before a series vs. the White Sox.

The play is on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOWOUT on the Boston Red Sox.

Look for Boston's big winning run to continue here in the opener of this favorable four-game series.

Perkins has struggled for the A's, so I believe that Tolle and the Red Sox are well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The play is on BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NL CENTRAL BEST OF THE BEST on the Cardinals.

Look for Pallante and the CARDS to answer after last night's 4-2 series-opening loss.

The Reds take a step back here finally after three straight road wins.

A great situational play and overall price in my opinion on ST. LOUIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL BOOKIEKILLER on the San Francisco Giants.

Both teams have struggled this season, but Webb has a clear advantage at home.

The Giants are also now desperate to snap a five-game slide.

Look for a little "home cooking" to be the difference-maker finally for SAN FRANCISCO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SUPER SHOCKER on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Bieber is a mess, and so are the Jays.

I look for Tampa to complete the sweep.

Lay the price on the hot hand, the play is the RAYS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL BEARDOWN on the Mariners.

Both teams have a night off following this game on the road vs. division rivals, but after last night's loss, look for the MARINERS to respond in the finale of this three-game interleague series.

The play is on SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the Rangers.

The bottom line here, I think deGrom is well worth the price of admission here at home in this matchup vs. Fedde.

Lay the price with confidence on TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% IL BOB on the Seattle Mariners.

Look for the MARINERS to bounce back after last night's series-opening loss in this favorable matchup.

Give me Woo at home over Webb on the road.

The play is on the MARINERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the White Sox.

I don't trust Lopez in this spot whatsoever.

Burke is in good form and I think the WHITE SOX take care of business in this favorable matchup.

Lay the price with confidence on CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% INTERLEAGUE BEATDOWN on the Mariners.

I like Miller over Junk in this one.

Look for the MARINERS to rally following back-to-back losses to open this three-game series.

The play is on Seattle.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the Seattle Mariners.

Cease is off a poor outing and walks have been an issue since he returned from the DL.

Castillo is coming off one of his best outings of the season and I like the veteran here at home in this matchup.

Great value on a good home team. Toronto hasn't been playing great and I think will struggle in the opener of this daunting road trip.

Great line on SEATTLE on Friday night is the bottom line in my opinion. 

Good luck, NP

This is a FREE PLAY on the Blue Jays.

The Jays finally broke a six-game slide with a 2-1 win over the Mets in yesterday's series opener and I look for them to build off that victory.

The Mets fall to just 16-26 on the road this year.

The visitors hand the ball to Nolan McLean (4-5, 4.03 ERA), who got shelled for six runs off even hits over six innings in a loss to the Cubs in his most recent outing.

The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (4-6, 4.36), who is coming off a rough outing as well, but who has been much better at home this year by going 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA.

Expect Gausman to outduel his shaky counterpart at home and for the Jays to carry over yesterday's momentum.

Consider TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BIG-CHALK CRUSHER on the Jays.

After back-to-back one run losses to open this four-game series at home vs. the Rangers, I look for the Jays to dig deep and respond as they desperately fight to avoid an overall fifth straight loss.

Kumar Rocker is 2-6 with a 4.14 ERA for Texas, while Dylan Cease is 4-3 with a 2.75 ERA for Toronto.

Look for Cease and TORONTO to find a way to get the job done at home and lay the price with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Astros.

Hunter Brown has been sharp in his limited time, entering 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA.

I think he's the correct call over Framber Valdez, who is 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA for the Tigers.

After yesterday's 9-3 series-opening loss, I like HOUSTON to respond here on Tuesday in the revenge spot.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cubs.

Chicago will look to respond here after two straight losses to open this series.

With game at division-rival Houston tomorrow, I think the visitors get caught "looking ahead." 

Lay the price with confidence on CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% ASSASSIN on the Rays.

After back-to-back losses to open this series, I like Martinez to get the better of Melton.

Looking back actually finds the Rays 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. 

Lay the price with confidence on TAMPA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% IL GOW on the Mariners.

Both teams have been playing a lot better of late, but I trust Emerson Hancock (4-2, 2.78 ERA) here at home over the Mets' Austin Warren (1-1, 1.40 ERA), who will make his first career start on Monday, before the shaky Sean Manaea (0-1, 5.56 ERA) enters as a bulk reliever.

Look for the surging Mariners to rally behind Hancock and for the MARINERS to find a way to keep the good times rolling in the opener of their second straight home IL series; lay the price with confidence. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Mariners.

I look for the surging Mariners to complete the sweep of this interleague series.

A big starting pitching mismatch swings the pendulum in favor of Seattle, with Kelly struggling for the D-Backs and Miller setting personal bests up to this point.

This line could/should in fact be a lot larger, in my opinion, so the value swings to SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Mariners.

The Mariners are missing a couple of pieces, including Cal Raleigh, but off a sweep of the A's and now back on top in the AL West, I like Kirby in this spot over Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks.

Arizona's recent run is a bit deceptive I believe, with all of their victories coming over the struggling Giants and Rockies during that stretch.

Look for Kirby and the home side MARINERS to deliver a solid victory in the opener of this interleague series.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Rangers.

I'm giving a big nod to Leiter here at home over Alexander on the road, as far as the starting pitching matchup is concerned.

After four straight losses, look for the RANGERS to dig deep and to respond to last night's humbling 9-0 series-opening loss.

The play is on TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Diamondbacks.

Lorenzen has been a disaster for the Rockies and just gave up seven runs. He's lost four straight and conceded 20 runs in the process.

Gallen has been significantly better at home already in the early going and I expect that trend to continue here. 

Divisional battles are always the most important, and they almost always mean the most to the home side; look for that to again be the case tonight and lay the price with confidence.

The play is on ARIZONA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% IL BOB on the Mariners.

I like Gilbert and the Mariners to answer back after last night's 2-0 series-opening loss, and I definitely don't trust Buehler on the road right now.

Considering the circumstances, I believe that SEATTLE could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot.

The play is on the home side.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% AL EAST BEST OF THE BEST on the Jays.

The Rays moved into first place in the AL East, but the Jays took two of three from the Angels over the weekend and the play with revenge, following an 0-3 sweep at Tampa two weeks ago.

Look for Gausman to lead TORONTO to a solid bounce-back victory in this revenge spot at home and for the Rays to finally suffer a letdown

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP PLAY on the Mariners.

I don't trust Ragans on the road.

Woo should or could be a much larger favorite in this matchup.

Look for SEATTLE to find a way to get the job done in the opener of this series in what is expected to be a perfect night in the PNW for baseball and lay the price with confidence/

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% STUNNER on the Phillies.

Bryce Elder was not great last year, so regression feels imminent for the Braves' starter tonight in my opinion.

Zach Wheeler returns from the IL after a decent five-game re-hab. He should be excited to help his team snap a 10-game losing streak.

Look for the hungry visiting side to find a way to get the job done tonight.

The play is on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% TOP DOG on the Brewers.

I believe that Skenes and Woodruff are a "wash."

First series of the year against each other, but I believe that the "home field" advantage will prove critical for Woodruff and the BREWERS tonight.

Live dog action on MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Texas Rangers.

I like Texas to bounce back after yesterday's 8-4 setback.

The Pirates turn to Bubba Chandler (1-1, 3.15 ERA), while the home side counters with ace Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.29).

Give me deGrom at home in this revenge spot at this price.

The play is on TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOOD-BATH on the Mets.

Connor Prielipp has looked great in Triple A in his limited action, throwing six scoreless innings, but I think he's been thrown to the Wolves here in his MLB debut for the Twins.

The Mets are BEYOND desperate now to snap their nightmare 12-game losing streak.

I'm giving a huge nod to Clay Holmes at a home, as he's 2-2 with a 1.96 ERA.

Look for the revenge-minded home side to finally "get off the schneid" with a solid victory.

The play is on NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% IL TOP VALUE PLAY on the Rays.

The Reds are 9-2 on the road, but regression feels imminent for their young hurler Burns tonight.

Stephen Matz has turned back the clock and he's looking great in his role as fifth starter for the Rays.

After last night's 6-1 series-opening loss, and looking to avoid a third straight loss, I think the RAYS offer tremendous value to bounce back tonight.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Mariners.

The Mariners have won two in a row after losing five straight and I look for them to keep the momentum rolling here in this favorable matchup. 

The A's, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four.

Give me Hancock at home at this price over the inexperienced Ginn, who has to deal with this difficult home venue as well.

Lay the price with confidence on the MARINERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Mariners.

I had the Mariners last night and they came out flat in the 5-0 series-opening setback. However, I look for Seattle to finally bounce back here and avoid a fifth straight loss overall.

The bottom line comes down to the current form of these starting pitchers.

Nate Eovaldi is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for the Rangers, while George Kirby is 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP for the Mariners.

Look for the revenge-minded MARINERS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and lay the price with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% BK on the Mariners.

Obviously, DeGrom is a very good pitcher and he's opened up 2026 on fire.

Gilbert, though, is coming off a gem and is now back on track for the Mariners, so I believe he can match his counterpart inning for inning.

The reason I like this play so much, though, is not the starting pitching matchup, but because of the fact that the Mariners were swept in three games in Texas two weeks, and the M's return home after an 0-3 showing in San Diego.

I think the Rangers take a step back here and the revenge-minded home side gets the job done with a solid victory.

The play is on SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BK on the Mariners.

Look for Seattle, behind Luis Castillo, to salvage the finale here vs. Walker Buehler and the Padres.

San Diego gets caught looking ahead to its series in LA tomorrow, while the desperate MARINERS find a way to get the job done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% MLB TOP DOG on the Brewers.

The Brewers will be desperate now to snap a six-game slide. 

Cease and Patrick are essentially a "wash," but I give Patrick the small nod for being at home.

Look for that and a determined MILWAUKEE side to deliver as a small home dog on Thursday night. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WINNER on the Royals.

Anthony Kay has been decent for the Sox, but I like Seth Lugo here at home.

Lugo is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, compared to 0-0 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP for Kay.

The Royals ride Lugo and their home field advantage for a solid win on Thursday night.

Lay the price with confidence on KANSAS CITY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BOOKIEKILLER on the Marlins.

Miami is looking to bounce back after dropping the first two in this series.

Singer and Perez are essentially a "wash," but Perez gets the small nod in this matchup at home.

Cincinnati is 5-0 on the road, but I don't see it winning a third straight here in Miami vs. the revenge-minded home side.

Lay the price with confidence, the play is on MIAMI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOOD-BATH on the Padres.

I like the Padres to respond after yesterday's series opening loss.

Lay the price with confidence on SAN DIEGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% WINNER on the Marlins.

Another favorable series for Miami to open the season after sweeping the Rockies.

Chris Paddack makes his Marlins debut, and I think he'll get the better of Davis Martin.

Look for MIAMI's superior bullpen to play a part in this matchup as well.

Great line value is the bottom line in my opinion. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros.

After dropping the first two games of this series, I believe Houston is the correct call here to bounce back in the finale with Javier.

The play is on HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% IL TOP TOP on the Braves.

Ragans is working his way back from an injury-plagued 2025.

Sale looked dominant last year and is making his second straight Season Opener. He is coming off a great Spring.

Lay the price with confidence on ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% LONG-BALL on the Mariners.

Bibee is coming off a terrible Spring.

Gilbert has put together back-to-back stellar campaigns and closed 2025 with a subpar 3.00 ERA over the final two months.

Lay the price with confidence on SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% HOME-RUN BLASTER on the Phillies.

Sanchez is coming off a career campaign and just signed a huge contract in the offseason.

The Rangers were pedestrian on the road last year, while the Phillies excelled.

Lay the price with confidence on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a SITUATIONAL ROUT on the Red Sox.

Toronto is still in a fight for top spot in the American League, but Boston is in a dog-fight with Detroit, Houston and Cleveland for a wildcard spot with five games remaining in the regular season.

Boston won by a score here of 4-1 yesterday as an underdog, and now its the favorite on Wednesday due to the starting pitching matchup.

Boston hands the ball to the steady Garrett Crochet (17-5, 2.69 ERA), who gave up three runs with nine K's over six innings in a win over the Rays in his last outing.

He'll be opposed by the volatile Max Scherzer (5-4, 5.06 ERA), who has struggled with consistency from one game to the next all season.

I don't trust Scherzer at all. Crochet is locked in and in this pressure-packed situation, I have no issues at all laying the price on what I believe to be the far superior starter.

The play is on BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PUNISHER on the New York Yankees.

I like the Yanks to bounce back from last night's humbling 12-2 series opening loss here to Detroit last night. 

The Tigers hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (7-13, 4.85 ERA), while the home side counters with Carlos Rodon (16-7, 3.12 ERA). 

Rodon has been particularly effective of late, going 6-1 with a 3.23 ERA since the All-Star break and he's also 9-3 with a 2.88 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I like NEW YORK to bounce back on Wednesday.

Good luck, NP

This is a 0.25% BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the Giants.

I like the Giants here. San Fran sits four games back of the final wildcard, and Arizona is 4.5 games back. This is a big series between these clubs with just three weeks to go in the regular season.

I don't think that the home-field advantage can be overlooked as a key factor for us with this wager.

Also, while Arizona D-Backs starter Nabil Crismatt has been good in a starter's role, his sample size of just four games is too small to draw any firm conclusions. Regression feels imminent.

I'm going with Logan Webb to dominate this matchup on the mound between starters, as he's 6-3 with a 2.86 ERA at home this season.

I see a lop-sided blowout as the final outcome here. The play is on SAN FRANCISCO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PUNISHER on the Red Sox.

Both teams are pushing for the playoffs. The D-Backs are 5.5 games back of the final spot, while Boston holds down the No. 2 spot in the AL.

Tolle is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA. He gave up two runs over six innings in his debut for the Red Sox.

Rodriguez is 6-8 with a 5.40 ERA for the D-Backs. He's been a lot better over the last month, but his bullpen has struggled this season and I think that'll be a difference-maker for Boston tonight.

Rodriguez has an ERA above 8.00 as well vs. his former team over three starts.

Great value on the hungry and hard-hitting visiting side, the play is on BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ULTIMATE SIDE on the Reds.

The Reds are four games back of the final NL Wildcard spot and have won two straight. 

Toronto is first in the division, with both New York and Boston in the first and second Wildcard spot in the AL.

The Jays weakness, though, has been their play on the road where they're just 34-35. The Reds are now 38-31 at home. 

Two really good pitchers squaring off to start, with Jose Berrios going for the visitors, and Nick Lodolo going for the home side.

They're pretty much a "wash" overall, but the slight nod goes to Lodolo at home.

Look for the hungrier and surging home side to keep the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done here once again in this important interleague series.

The play is on CINCINNATI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PUNISHER on the Cubs.

I like the Cubs to bounce back here with Imanaga on the hill after dropping the first two.

Note that Chicago is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. 

I expect Logan Webb and the Giants to stumble here in the finale against the revenge-minded visiting side.

Lay the price, the play is on CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BEATDOWN on the Red Sox.

"Momentum," at this time of year, is a very real and tangible factor for teams. 

Boston has won five of its last six after taking the first two in this series. After their 5-0 win here yesterday, the Red Sox' bullpen is rested and ready to support Brayan Bello (10-6, 3.07 ERA), who already has an advante on the hill here vs. his scheduled counterpart Dietrich Enns (1-2, 4.97 ERA), who is has been given an opportunity to open the game and pitch for an inning or two before making way for reliever Roansy Contreras by the third inning at the latest.

Either way, I feel BOSTON could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot, so the value swings to the visitors.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BEST BET on the Yanks.

Boston has won the first three games of this four game series in blowout fashion, but I like the Yankees to finally step up here and avoid the 0-4 sweep.

The bottom line here is that this is a big time starting pitching matchup working in favor New York, with the shaky Dustin May (6-7, 4.85 ERA) getting the call for Boston and the steady Carlos Rodon (13-7, 3.24 ERA) countering for the home side.

I predict that many of the sharps will be riding Boston on the runline here, but I'm expecting NEW YORK to finally step up here in this crucial game and favorable matchup.

Lay the price on the YANKEES.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% MLB ROUT on the Jays.

I like the Jays to complete the sweep here Miami. Vlad Guerrero is expected to return to the line-pup today as well for Toronto.

Kevin Gausman has had a back-and-forth season, switching good months with bad all year, but now that we've hit "crunch time," I think he's the correct call in this matchup.

Gausman has dominated the Fish throughout his career as well by going 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA in eight career appearances against them. 

With Boston and New York fighting it out for second spot in the division today, the Jays have a golden opportunity to continue to separate themselves. 

Lay the price on TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PUNISHER on the Dodgers.

Just a complete pitching mismatch here with Blake Snell (1.80 ERA) getting the starting nod for the Dodgers, and the struggling Yu Darvish (6.08 ERA) countering for the home side.

LA just took all three from San Diego last week. The Padres then recovered to win three of four over San Francisco, but this is just a very bad matchup for the home side.

Great line value here on Snell and the DODGERS in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% POWER-SMASH on the Rays.

I like the Rays to bounce back here after dropping their series-opener to the Cards.

The bottom line is that this is a favorable starting pitching matchup working in favor of Tampa and I like the Rays to take advantage.

The Cards turn to Miles Mikolas (6-9, 4.99 ERA), while the home side counters with Adrian Houser (6-2, 2.10 ERA). 

Both teams need victories here at the end of the season as they try to catch a wildcard spot, but at this pirc, the home side is just way too good to turn down considering all of the circumstances here.

Great line value on TAMPA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PUNISHER on the Detroit Tigers.

With both teams leading their respective divisions, this should be a pretty good series.

That said, I think that Jack Flaherty (6-12, 4.76 ERA) has the advantage here at home over his counterpart  Spencer Arrighetti (1-3, 6.38 ERA). 

Both teams are off losses, but look for DETROIT to bounce back here and ride the wave of emotion in front of the hometown crowd.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% PUNISHER on the Jays.

The Cubs are 10-11 since the All Star break, averaging just 4.1 runs over that span.

The Jays return home looking to take advantage after a 4-2 road trip.

The Jays go with Jose Berrios (8-4, 3.89 ERA), while the visitors counter with the volatile Ben Brown (6-7, 6.04 ERA). 

I like Berrios to take advantage of this struggling Chicago offense.

Great line value here on TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on the Rangers.

Texas has lost two straight at home, including yesterday's series-opener to Philly by a score of 9-1.

The Rangers are now 1.5 games behind in the AL Wildcard race. Despite that though, they're still 36-22 at home, while Philadelphia is still just 29-28 on the road.

Jesus Luzardo is 10-5 with a 4.32 ERA for the visitors, but Texas now turns to its ace Jacob deGrom, who is 10-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. 

deGrom has found his old form and lives for these types of games/situations/pressure etc.

All things considered, I believe we're getting excellent line value here on the hungry RANGERS in this revenge spot.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% BLOWOUT SIDE on the LA Dodgers.

In an attempt to get this pick posted as fast as possible, I'm going to be succinct with my analysis. When time permits, I'll always do my best to have more detailed analysis.

After their big series in Colorado this week, there's more money on the underdog Jays right now in this opener.

But I think Toronto takes a step back here. I like Kershaw at home over Scherzer.

The Dodgers haven't been playing great, but they're going to get up for the challenge here.

Lay the price, the play is on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% SITUATIONAL ROUT on the Yanks.

Expect New York to step up here and to snap the five-game slide.

I like Carlos Rodon here over his counterpart, Jack Leiter, as well.

Look for a desperate YANKEES team to figure out a way to salvage the finale this afternoon.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% POWER PLAY on the Angels.

I like the Angels to bounce back after two straight losses, including in yesterday's 6-3 series-opening loss here to the Chi-Sox.

Chicago is poised for a letdown here after back-to-back victories.

The starters are a "wash," essentially, but Angels' starter Hendricks owns a 3.53 ERA since the All-Star game and his ERA lowers to 4.08 when he's at home this season.

All things considered, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion.

The play is on the ANGELS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% POWER PLAY on the LA Dodgers.

LA comes to Tampa looking to rebound from a 5-2 loss at Cincinnati on Wednesday, although the Dodgers did win two of three in the series.

LA is 28-25 on the road, while Tampa is 31-28 at home. The Rays return home after losing three of four at the Yankees this week, including a 7-4 loss there yesterday. 

Clayton Kershaw is now 4-2 with a 3.62 ERA after taking a loss in his last outing. But note, while he's 2-0 at home and only 2-2 on the road, he has a 4.35 ERA at home this season, and a 2.87 ERA away from friendly confines. He's also 2-0 with a 4.44 ERA lifetime against the Rays.  Kershaw has also posted a win in seven of his last eight road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

He'll be opposed by Shane Baz, who is 8-7 with a 4.61 ERA. He's coming off a loss against the Reds and he's now lost four straight starts, posting a 5.90 ERA in that span. 

Baz is 3-4 with a 2.99 ERA on the road, and 5-3 with a ballooned 6.35 ERA at home this season.

Tampa enters having lost seven of its last eight, and with the Yanks and Jays now distancing themselves from the rest of the pack, the Rays are being left behind.

Tampa's bullpen was worked hard in New York this week, and I'm expecting the big bats of the Dodgers to take advantage tonight. 

LA's been underperforming over the last month compared to its lofty standards, but off a series win at the Reds, I say it carries that momentum over here in Tampa this weekend.

Lay the short price, the play is on the DODGERS.

Good luck, NP

This a 4% NL CENTRAL GOM on the Brewers.

This is an important series for both divisional opponents. I think the value here though for sure lies on the home side at this price.

Milwaukee won yesterday's opener by a score of 8-4 and a similar outcome awaits on Tuesday as well in my opinion.

The Cubs are 29-25 on the road, but the Brewers are 35-19 at home.

Colin Rea (8-4, 4.06 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with Quinn Priester (9-2, 3.28 ERA). 

Rea owns a 5.40 ERA since the All Star Game, while Priester has posted a 1.38 ERA.

All things considered, I feel this to be the very definition of "great line value."

The play is on MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% AL DOG OF THE MONTH on the Rays.

The Rays are back to .500 (53-53) after losing four in a row, including all three at Cincinnati over the weekend. With the Jays now leading the league overall, it's almost "now or never" for Tampa as far as making a move.

This series in New York is a pivotal one for Tampa.

Good thing the Rays hand the ball to ace Drew Rasmussen (7-5, 2.93 ERA), who most recently allowed two runs over four innings in a no-decision to the White Sox. Rasmussen has been working his way back from injury, but should now be able to handle a full work-load moving forward. 

And note that Rasmussen has been at his best on the road this year, going 3-0 with a 3.30 ERA in seven outings.

The Yanks are now 57-48 after salvaging the finale of a four-game series with Philadelphia and they'll have to navigate the next stretch of games without slugger Aaron Judge, who was recently injured.

The Yanks turn to rookie Cam Schlittler (4.50 ERA), who is 1-0 in two starts this season and who has allowed 11 hits in 10.1 innings of work, including two home runs. 

With their backs against the proverbial wall, I look for the desperate Rays to respond with a decisive win in the opener of this AL East series from the Bronx on Monday night.

The play is on TAMPA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% TOP SHOCKER on the Tigers.

Quite unreal the downfall of the Tigers, and the rising of the Jays over the last month.

That said, I do now think that the Jays are getting much too-much respect here and that Tigers' starter Jack Flaherty (5-10, 4.77 ERA), over his counterpart Max Scherzer (1-0, 5.14 ERA).

Note that Flaherty owns a 3.74 ERA at home compared to a 6.28 ERA on the road.

Great line value and an overall fantastic situational play on the TIGERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% AL EAST GOM on the Yanks.

The Yanks lost all four games here over Canada Day weekend, and they now sit three games back of the Jays for the division lead.

Toronto has done decently against lefties, and also done well against New York's scheduled starter, Carlos Rodon, in the past. But for me, that was then, and this is NOW.

Rodon (10-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), picked up a win in his most recent start against the Cubs, going eight scoreless and striking out eight. He also generated 17 whiffs in the process.

It was a great way to close out the first half, and there's no reason not to think he can't carry that confidence and momentum over into this important divisional matchup.

Rodon is 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA in eight games lifetime against the Jays, while Toronto starter Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) is 10-10 with a 3.87 ERA in 37 games against the Yankees.

Gausman went into the break moving in the opposite direction of his counterpart, though, getting shelled for four runs off five hits with three walks over five frames of work. 

Since early June, Gausman has been scuffling, posting a ballooned 4.95 ERA and 1.49 WHIP and pedestrian 43:22 K:BB over 43.2 innings of work.

New York closed out its interleague series against the Braves with back-to-back wins, scoring 16 points in the process.

Look for Aaron Judge and the visitors to post a win here in this divisional revenge spot. The play is on NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BLOWOUT on the Dodgers.

The Brewers have been unbelievable of late, but after winning the first two games of this series, I'm finally expect a letdown here. 

Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw are essentially a "wash," here, but the Dodgers have the line-up to do some serious damage in a spot like this.

LA could/should in fact be a much larger fav in this spot in my opinion.

Lay the price with confidence on LA

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% TOP DOG PLAY on the Rangers.

Detroit was 59-38 over the first half, including 27-20 on the road.

Texas was 48-49 overall, but 26-19 at home. 

The Rangers played a three-game series in Detroit in early May and went 2-1. 

The bottom line here though is that I think that Rangers' scheduled starter Patrick Corbin can match Tigers' scheduled starter Reese Olson inning for inning.

In the final month before the 2025 All-Star break, Corbin delivered a solid performance, showcasing his value as a reliable veteran. 

Over this period, he maintained a 4.26 ERA, with 65 strikeouts across his starts. 

Corbin's ability to eat innings was crucial, providing stability to an injury-plagued rotation (Notably, on July 10, he pitched five innings, allowing two earned runs and striking out six).

His improved command, with 47% of pitches at the zone's edge, contributed to his effectiveness, helping the Rangers stay competitive in the AL West.

Olson was great, but while he was 2-1 with a 2.71 ERA at home, he was just 1-2 with a more pedestrian 3.58 ERA on the road. 

I think Detroit has the potential to suffer regression over the second half, and I believe Texas has an opportunity to have a much better performance than it had over the first half.

The value here lies with the hungrier home side in my opinion.

The play is on TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% SUPER BLASTER on the Phillies.

I like the Phillies to bounce back here after yesterday's defeat with their ace on the mound.

Wheeler owns a 2.17 ERA, while Padres starter Darvish has struggled this season with a 6.00 ERA.

Lay the price with confidence, the play is on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% TOP PLAY on the Reds.

Miami took the opener of this four-game series by a score of 5-1. I'm jumping on this pick early on Tuesday afternoon, so I don't currently know the result of Tuesday's game. But whatever the result is, I really like the Reds on Wednesday night.

And while I don't always base my MLB picks primarily on the starting pitchers, I am for this one!

I'm employing the KISS method for this one. The Keep It Simple Stupid approach.

Miami has actually been better on the road than at home, coming into Tuesday at 21-21 away from friendly confines.

Despite the loss in Game 1 of this four-game series, though, the Reds enter Tuesday with a respectable 24-20 home record. 

But for me, this one starts and ends with the starters.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Sandy Alcantra (4-8, 7.01 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), who was fortunate to receive a no-decision in his last outing by allowing five runs over six innings to the Brewers.

Alcantara was shaky all around, posting a balk and hitting a batter. Unfortunately for Alcantara and the Marlins, a date on the road is NOT what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he's a shocking 1-4 with a 10.10 ERA as the away pitcher this season. 

It's a huge disappointment for Alcantara, who was expected to be traded this season.

So while it's all doom and gloom for Alcantara, it's all good for Andrew Abbott (7-1, 2.15 ERA) and the Reds on Wednesday in my opinion.

Abbott is also coming off a no-decision, allowing four runs over 3.1 innings vs. the Phillies last Friday.

It was his shortest outing of the season. No need to hit the panic button obviously, for the Reds, as Abbott still sports a spectacular 78:22 K:BB this season.

And he's also 3-1 with a tiny 2.14 ERA at home this year.

These teams are both fighting for wins right now, but the talent discrepancy and current form of these starters make CINCINNATI the correct call in my opinion. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% MLB BEATDOWN on the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Marlins are arguably the hottest team in all of baseball right now, going 9-1 in their last ten, including two of three from Minnesota this week.

But it certainly hasn't been because of their ace Sandy Alcantara, who continues to struggle through the worst season of his career.

Alcantara enters this one 4-8 with a ballooned 6.98 ERA and was lucky to earn a no-decision in his last outing after getting shelled for seven runs off ten hits over six innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Saturday.

Poor timing for Alcantara, as coming into this season, he was rumoured to be on the trading block, and this poor first-half performance couldn't have come at a worse time for him.

Milwaukee counters with the betting "in form" starter, and I think Quinn Priester (6-2, 3.35 ERA) will indeed be the difference-maker in this contest for the Brewers.

Priester is coming off perhaps his best outing of his career, going seven scoreless against the Rockies, striking out 11.

Priester enters this game red-hot and ready to cool off the Marlins, as he posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 27.1 June innings of work. 

I think that June momentum carries over into July for Priester. 

Considering these guys' recent form, I think we're getting fantastic line value on MILWAUKEE on Friday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% AL EAST GOW on the Yankees.

After dropping the first three games of this divisional series, I like the Yanks to find a way to get the job done in the finale.

Toronto has won four straight divisional matchups now after also winning its finale against the Red Sox previously, but regardless, I think this one favors Clarke Schmidt and the revenge-minded visiting side. 

New York is 4-1 in its last five looking back when trying to avenge three or more straight losses against an opponent.

Lay the price, the play is on NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% PARSONS BEST BET on the Kansas City Royals.

I think we're getting great value here on the "better" starting pitcher.

I don't primarily base my picks on just the starting pitching, but I am for this one.

Kansas City is just 19-21 on the road, but Seattle is only 21-19 at home (interestingly the Royals are 27-13 on the runline away from friendly confines, so even in defeat, they've been competitive as the visitor).

But as I said, this one comes down to the starters for me.

The Royals hand the ball to Michael Wacha (4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), while the home side counters with George Kirby (1-4, 5.40 ERA).

Wacha is off a loss to the Rays, allowing three runs over six innings. He struck out nine. He pitched well enough to win, but didn't. It was his eighth quality start of the year. 

Kirby is also coming off a loss despite a strong outing, allowing one run over six innings, while striking out three against Minnesota.

It was in fact Kirby's best outing of the year. Note though that Kirby is a terrible 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA at home this season.

"Home field" has not been a huge advantage for the Mariners this year, and it certainly hasn't been for Kirby.

Look for the hungry visiting side with the superior starting pitcher in better current form to find a way to get the job done as a LIVE DOG on Monday night (PARSONS BEST BET.) 

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins.

Enough is enough! After five straight losses, I look for the Twins to finally bounce back here with their "ace" on the mound and salvage the finale of this three-game series, after losing all three against the Brewers in their previous one.

George Kirby (1-3, 6.76 ERA) has struggled with consistency for the Mariners all season, while Joe Ryan (7-3, 3.06 ERA), has been a consistent bright spot for the Twins.

Lay the price with confidence, the play is on Ryan and the TWINS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* DOG OF THE DAY on the Phillies.

Both teams are playing really well, but the Astros are doing so despite having a few key injuries.

The Phillies go with Ranger Suarez (6-1, 2.20 ERA), while the home side counters with Framber Valdez (8-4, 3.09).

I think the overachieving home side takes a step back here.

Great value on Suarez and the PHILLIES.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Cubs.

I like Chicago to bounce back after yesterday's 9-4 series-opening loss to the Mariners.

Seattle is 18-17 on the road now, but the Cubs are still 24-14 at home.

Emerson Hancock (3-2, 4.48 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he's opposed by Cade Horton (3-1, 3.47 ERA).

Look for the revenge-minded home side to find a way to get the job done here in what I feel is a favorable starting pitching matchup for CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NL WEST GAME OF THE WEEK on the D-Backs.

I like the home side to figure out a way to get the job done in the opener of this divisional battle.

The Padres are just 17-17 on the road, while Arizona is 18-17 at home.

Stephen Kolek (3-1, 3.00 ERA) gets the call for the Padres and while he's been decent in his limited time, he's only in the rotation right now out of necessity. Regression looks imminent. 

The home side counters with Ryne Nelson (2-2, 4.60 ERA), who is looking to rebound off a crummy start to the Reds. It was his worst start of the season.

Note, though, that while Nelson is a sub-par 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA on the road, he's 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA at home.

Lay the short price with confidence, the play is ARIZONA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOUNCE-BACK BLOWOUT on the Cardinals.

The Jays have won six of seven, including the first two in this series, but I expect regression here finally before a night off and a new series in Philadelphia on Friday.

St. Louis now comes in desperate to snap the three-game slide.

Evenly matched starters here in the Jays Eric Lauer (2-1, 2.08 ERA), and the Cards' Matthew Liberatore (3-5, 3.82). That said, Liberatore gets the nod here in this matchup at home.

Look for the CARDINALS to salvage the finale.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NL GOW on the Cards.

No need to overanalyze this one, as this is a complete starting pitching mismatch, and I believe this factor will be the difference-maker in the outcome.

In fact, considering the form of each starter right now, I feel we're getting great line value on the home side.

LA goes with Justin Wrobleski (1-1, 8.00 ERA), while the home side counters with Sonny Gray (6-1, 3.65). 

This is the very definition of "great line value," in my opinion.

The play is on ST. LOUIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% PUNISHER on the Blue Jays.

I had a play on Philadelphia yesterday, as the Phillies were desperate to snap a four-game slide. 

But I expect the Jays to bounce back here with what I believe to be a favorable starting pitching matchup.

The visitors go with Mick Abel (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who is being called up from Triple A to make this start. His stay in the big leagues won't be long this time either and while he looked good in his win against the Pirates back on May 18th, regression feels imminent to me here.

The home side counters with veteran Jose Berrios (2-2, 3.86 ERA), who at this price here at home is the correct call in my opinion.

Look for TORONTO to bounce back and answer after yesterday's defeat.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% PUNISHER on the Phillies.

Philly is desperate to snap a four-game slide, while Toronto is poised for a letdown after five straight wins. 

The Jays looked good against a pitching-starved A's team, but previous to that their offense was stalling.

This is a massive starting pitching mismatch. 

The Phillies' Cristopher Sanchez (4-1, 3.32 ERA) is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two career outings vs. the Jays, while Toronto starter Bowden Francis (2-6, 5.04), is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in two career games against Philadelphia. 

I like the desperate visiting side to find a way to get the job done here in this favorable spot and for the suddenly overachieving Jays to have a letdown.

Lay the price, the play is on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* IL GOM on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

There are many important factors to consider when betting on baseball, but arguably the most important is the starting pitching matchup.

I base my MLB picks on many things, but often I'll base my selections 100% around the starters.

And that's the case here on Tuesday afternoon, with the Houston Astros travelling to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates in an Interleague series in the first of three.

Pittsburgh is only 22-38 this year, including 13-16 at home. Houston is 32-27 this season, but just 10-15 on the road.

But as mentioned, the difference in this pick for me comes with the starting pitchers, with Lance McCullers (0-1, 5.89 ERA) getting the call for the Astros and Paul Skenes (4-5, 2.15 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)

McCullers 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA this year, and he most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the A's. McCullers is slowly improving, but I think he'll have his hands full here trying to keep pace with Skiens, who is 4-5 with a 2.15 ERA and who is coming off a gem against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks last time out, striking out seven over seven scoreless frames.

One player that McCullers will have to be careful about is Pittsburgh veteran Andrew McCutchen, who is on a three-game hitting streak and who, over his last five games, has a .300 batting average with a double, two home runs, two walks, and four RBIs. 

The Astros struggled in Tampa in their last series, and everything points to that being the case here as well in Pittsburgh. At least in this first game.

Lay the price with confidence, the play is on PITTSBURGH.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NL CENTRAL GOY on the Reds.

I base my picks on many different things, but this particular one is based upon the fact that I believe the home side has a significant advantage as far as the starting pitching matchup is concerned, and that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger.

Because of that, the value swings to the undervalued home side.

This is the second series of the year between the division rivals and the first one didn't go so well for Cincinnati on the road, going just 1-3 in Milwaukee back at the start of April.

The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Civale (0-1, 6.00 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision against the Red Sox, allowing one run over five innings. Previous to that he'd allowed seven runs and four home runs over seven innings of work. Suffice it to say, I feel that it's the VISITORS that are in fact overvalued here.

The home side counters with Brady Singer (6-3, 4.60 ERA), who is coming off a win against the Royals, allowing two runs over seven innings. It was a second consecutive outing without allowing a home run as well. Singer has been shaky with his performance this year, but he's quietly been turning the corner over his last few starts and there's no reason not to believe that that progression won't continue here at home in this important but favorable divisional matchup on Monday night. 

Finally, note that Singer has also been at his best in front of the home town crowd this season, going 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA in Cincinnati this season.

Great line value, the play is the REDS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on the Padres.

San Diego won the opener by a score of 3-2, but then Pittsburgh bounced back with a 5-0 win last night.

The Pirates have a night off before three straight home series and I expect them to have a predictable letdown here.

Conversely, off the shutout loss as a massive favorite, look for the Padres to bounce back.

Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.41 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.58). 

These guys are a "wash" essentially, but I don't trust the Pirates' bullpen on the road.

The Pirates are still only 9-21 as the away side, while the Padres are still 19-10 at home.

I like Heaney, but he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today.

Lay the reasonable mid-sized price with confidence, the play is on SAN DIEGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL DOG OF THE MONTH on the Twins.

Minnesota is only 11-15 on the road, but note that Tampa is still just 16-18 at home this season, despite entering on a five-game win streak.

Chris Paddack (2-4, 3.98 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he is coming off a loss despite allowing just two runs over six innings to the hard-hitting Guardians. 

He'll be opposed by Zack Littell (3-5, 4.25 ERA), who earned a no-decision in his last outing after allowing two runs over five innings vs. the Astros.

After five straight wins, I think Tampa takes a step back here. Great value on Paddack as a live dog.

The play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* AL EAST GOW on the Red Sox.

Batlimore is still only 9-19 on the road this year despite yesterday's 2-1 victory.

I think Boston bounces back here to move to 3-1 in this important early divisional series and before hitting the road to Milwaukee on Monday.

Dean Kremer is just 3-5 with a 5.50 ERA for the Orioles. Walker Buehler is 4-1 with a 4.00 ERA for the Red Sox.

This line will continue to climb towards first pitch, so I'd say get down on BOSTON ASAP.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Merrill Kelly (5-2, 3.26 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and while he's been a consistent bright spot for Aziona, note that the D-backs are still just 13-12 on the road this year.

St. Louis turns to Matthew Liberatore (3-3, 2.92 ERA), and note that the Cards are now 17-8 at home after yesterday's series-opening 4-3 victory.

At this price, the home side offers tremendous value once again.

The play is on ST. LOUIS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILLER on the Mets.

The Dodgers are just 12-11 on the road, while the Mets are 17-5 at home.

Big difference between starters as well, with Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 11.25 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) getting the call for the visitors, and Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.47 ERA) getting the call for the Mets.

I think great value here on the home side, which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder here facing the Dodgers.

The play is on the METS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER PUNISHER on the A's.

After seven straight losses, including the first two in this series, I like the A's to bounce back here on Wednesday finally with what I believe to be the superior starter on the mound for them.

The Angels have won five in a row and are now primed for a classic "letdown" finally after sweeping the Dodgers over the weekend.

Jack Kochanowicz (3-5, 4.71 ERA) gets the call for the Angels, and while he's looked a bit better over his last two outings, he's still just 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA on the road this year. 

JP Sears (4-3, 3.31 ERA) counters for the home side and he's looking to rebound off a shaky start vs. the hard-hitting Giants on Friday, allowing four runs over four innings. He still owns a good 38-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and I believe he's the correct call in this matchup.

Look for Sears to bounce back and for the A's to stop the slide. Lay the price with OAKLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL EAST GOM on the Blue Jays.

It's the first game of the season between the division rivals.

Tampa is just 18-22 overall after taking two of three at home over Milwaukee most recently. Somehow, the Rays have been better on the road than at home with a 7-5 away record.

Toronto is now 20-20 after winning four in a row, including three straight in Seattle over the weekend. The Jays are also now a respectable 11-8 at home.

These teams are both heading in the correct direction right now, but I think the Jays are still in the slightly better overall form, and with the home field advantage as well, they offer tremendous value in this early, but important divisional contest.

Shane Baz is 3-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.33 WHIP for Tampa, while Jose Berrios is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP for Toronto.

I base my MLB picks primiarly around what I perceive to be great "situations" (which can be a combination of many different factors, including scheduling, revenge, lop-sided streaks or win/losing streaks, motivation etc), but also a lot around the starting pitching.

I think Berios at this price at home is the correct call.

Baz enters off a terrible start as well, getting shelled for six runs off eight hits and two walks over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies on Wednesday. This isn't just a "one-off" outlier poor start either, as Baz was rocked for seven runs off nine hits in his previous outing. He's now conceded five runs or greater in three of his last four appearances and has a ballooned 8.38 ERA and 13 to 10 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Berrios most recently allowed two runs over six innings while striking out nine in an unfortunate no-decision against the Angels in his last outing.

Berrios is heading in the opposite direction of Baz, having now posted two straight quality starts, and over his last 40 innings of work, he owns a 3.02 ERA and a respectable 40:19 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

This is going to be a very popular pick, so RUN, don't walk, to get to the computer or the window to place this wager, as the line will likely continue to rise heading up to the first pitch.

The play is on TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota has won six straight after taking yesterday's opener here by a score of 3-1.

The Giants are a respectable 12-10 on the road so far, but Minnesota is 13-6 at home.

The starters are a "wash." 

Logan Webb (4-2, 2.61 ERA) gets the call for the Giants, wwhile Joe Ryan (2-2, 2.94 ERA) counters for the Twins.

To get Minnesota at home at this price considering its recent form feels like a gift. The Twins' bullpen has been great of late.

Also, Minnesota continues to play "small ball" well.

I say it's the Giants who are overvalued in this spot. The value swings to the TWINS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* IL GOM on the Texas Rangers.

After going just 1-2 at Oakland this week, I like the Rangers to bounce back in the opener of this interleague series.

The Giants just went 3-1 here this week against the Brewers.

But the bottom line here for me is the starting pitching matchup, which I feel greatly favors the visitors.

Texas hands the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 2.64 ERA, 0.75 WHIP), while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (0-1, 5.47, 1.50 WHIP.) 

Based upon the current form of these guys, I love the RANGERS to get back into the winner's circle tonight.

The play is on TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUNISHER on the Tampa Bay Rays.

I had a play on Tampa in its 1-0 loss here yesterday. The Rays are now 8-12 and desperate to snap this four-game divisional slide, losing two of three here to the Red Sox previously.

The Rays still have a chance to earn a split with the Yanks in this four-game series, though, and with the clearly superior starter on the hill for them today in this matchup, I expect them to dig deep and find a way to get back into the winner's circle.

The bottom line here is that this starting pitching matchup definitely favors the Rays in my opinion, as Yanks' starter Carlos Carrasco is 2-1 with a 5.94 ERA, the beneficiary of some early great offense from New York.

Shane Baz, though, is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA for the Rays. 

Look for the hungry home side to dig deep and find a way to get the job done, finally, here at home.

The play is on the RAYS.

Good luck, NP