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This is an 8* SUPER-PLAY on the Jays.

It's the final series of the regular season. So with that in mind, I feel this particular play sets up great from a situational stand point.

The Rays have clinched the AL Wildcard, and they'll face the Jays in the best of three opening round if Toronto can win this series. All the Jays have to do is win this series and they're in.

Tampa has nothing left to play for for the remainder of the regular season. It's dealing with several injury issues as well. Frankly, I don't see the Rays putting up much of a fight here this week North of the border, instead I expect them to already be planning for the playoffs.

No such luxury for the Jays though of course, as this is now "do or die." 

Fortunately as well, this is definitely a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side as well.

The Rays go with Aaron Civale (7-4, 3.43 ERA), while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31.) 

Ryu is 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in eight career starts vs. Tampa, while Civale is 1-0 with a 6.17 ERA in two career outings vs. Toronto.

I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger.

Lay the price with confidence, the play is TORONTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WINNER on the Astros.

There are a ton of implications going on in this game and in this series. Both of these teams are just 1.5 games ahead of Toronto for the final wildcard.

They're both tied for second in the AL West, one game behind the Mariners for the lead.

We have two evenly matched starting pitchers, and each club has enjoyed its fair share of frustrations over the last few weeks.

So in this evenly matched contest, I look for other factors to help me find which way the pendulum will swing as far as value is concerned, and the fact that Houston is 5-1 in its last six after three or more straight losses, does indeed make them the correct call here in this opener in my opinion.

I'm rolling with the ASTROS on Monday night.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Twins.

I like the Twins to bounce back here at home after yesterday's 4-2 loss. Minnesota took the opener by a score of 10-6.

Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Tyler Bibee (10-3, 3.01 ERA) has been a consistent bright spot for the Guardians all year, but I still give the nod to Sonny Gray (7-6, 3.06) here at home in this revenge situation.

Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros.

After three straight losses, including the opener in this one, I expect the Astros to dig deep here and deliver in Detroit.

The Tigers are playing well right now, but they're still just 28-35 on the road.

Note as well that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent.

Hunter Brown (9-9, 4.50 ERA) gets the call for the Astros, while Eduardo Rodriguez (9-6, 3.03) counters for the home side.

The overall situation though, combined with the above listed trends do indeed make the Astros worth the price of admission in this one. The play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Rangers.

I think the Rangers' run of bad luck comes to an end here. Luck does play a role in long losing streaks, and in long winning streaks. 

Both teams need victories, but it's all hands on deck for Texas today as it looks to get back into the winner's circle after sevem straight losses. That includes the opener of this series last night by a score of 7-5. 

Danning Dunning (9-5, 3.19 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins. 

Minnesota now has a six-game lead over the Guardians after last night's come-from-behind win, and I think that complacency finally kicks in a bit here.

Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.15) get s the call for the home side, and he's 9-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 17 career games vs. Texas.

All in all these starters are evenly matched, but look for TEXAS to finally punch through here and find a way to stop the extened, but now unrealistic slide.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins.

I'm going to lay the price and expect the surging Twins to NOT look past this opportunity, and instead come in razor focussed, ready to take advantage.

Minnesota is arguably playing its best baseball of the season right now, coming in off four sraight victories, including a three-game sweep of Arizona over the weekend. The Twins now have a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central.

Pablo Lopez (6-6, 4.01 ERA) has been super sharp over his last two starts and I expect him to carry that momentum over here.

He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Joey Wentz (2-9, 6.37), who is back in the rotation out of necessity. Wentz has struggled as a starter this season, with his opposition posting a .888 on base-plus-slugging percentage vs. him in those outings.

Wentz has already lost two starts to the Twins this year, and the old saying, "the third times a charm" could not be more apt, as I do indeed expect MINNESOTA to assert itself here in the opener and beat Wentz for a third time this season in the process.

Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles.

The Mets just got swept in Kansas City and I believe they're ripe for the picking here in the opener of this one. 

Baltimore took three of four from the Jays over the weekend. Big time starting pitching mismatch is the main reason here though, as New York goes with David Peterson (3-7, 5.92 ERA), while the home side counters with Deam Kremer (10-4, 4.66.) 

Peterson hasn't lasted more than two innings in any of his last six appearances, while Baltimore is 16-6 in games Kremer has started, including 5-0 in July. 

Lay the price with confidence, the play is BALTIMORE!

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on the Blue Jays.

The Jays have lost three straight. They had won four of five previous to that. Now in third in the AL East, Toronto can't afford to lose anymore games to the division leader. 

Baltimore has taken the first two games of this series, including yesterday's in blowout fashion vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu. 

Note though that the Jays are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. They're also 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

It's "gut check" time in Toronto. Essentially, "now or never" type of situation. 

Fortunately for Jays' fans (and us!), this is a completely lop-sided starting pitching matchup which I believe firmly swings the value in favor of the home side today.

The Orioles hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 6.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, while the home side counters with Yusei Kikuchi (8-3, 3.79, 1.28.) 

Big mismtatch here working in favor of Toronto and combined with the other external situational factors listed above, this becomes the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion.

Lay the price, the play is TORONTO. 

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Phillies.

The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five. They're second in the NL East behind the Braves, who they won't catch.

They won't catch the Dodgers either, but after that, they're in a neck and neck race with four or five other teams for the other Wildcard spots. A couple months ago, things looked a lot bleaker for the Phillies, but they've been getting healthier as the season has progressed, and that's helped in turning things around after a slow start.

Pittsburgh got out to an unreal start this season, but it fell apart a month before the All Star break and the slide into mediocrity continued in last night's 2-1 series opening loss.

Now with veteran Aaron Nola (9-6, 4.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) on the hill, I like the Phillies to keep the good times rolling in this favorable matchup, as he'll be opposed by Quinn Priester (1-1, 9.28.) 

This is a big time starting pitching matchup and everything points to a lop-sided outcome in the end.

Because of that, I'm laying the price with confidence on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cubs.

After winning five straight, and with a chance to move back to .500, I like the Cubs to do just that this evening in St. Louis. These teams played last weekend and the Cubs went 3-1 in the four game series.

The Cards can only play spoiler these days, and I just don't see them getting too excited here to try and stop the Cubs from reaching .500 today.

The starting pitching matchup favors Chicago, as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele, while the home side counters with Miles Mikolas.

Steele is 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Mikolas is is 6-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. 

Mikolas gave up 11 hits and five runs against the Cubs last week and I think he's in for another short night tonight as well. The Cubs offense is now rated in the Top 10 and I expect that momentum to get carried over.

The play is CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Phillies.

The Phillies were on the verge of defeat last night, but rallied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Orioles 3-2.

Now instead of trying to avoid the series sweep, they're trying to win the series off arguably the hottest team in baseball.

If any team was "due" for some regression, surely it's the Orioles. I say that Kyle Bradish (6-5, 3.05 ERA) takes a step back here as well finally in this difficult road venue.

He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez (2-5, 4.07), who I believe gets the slight advantage here because of throwing in front of the home town crowd. 

Philadelphia is hungry for victories, and I believe it rides the wave of emotion from last night's victory to another solid decision here in the series finale.

The play is the PHILLIES.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* IL GOW on the Rangers.

The Dodgers pulled away for the 11-5 win in yesterday's series opener, but with what I feel is the superior starter on the hill for htem here, I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.

Note that Texas is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent.

Bobby Miller is 5-1 with a 4.25 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been great, but I say he's in over his head here facing Dane Dunning of the Rangers, who is 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA this season (he's 5-0 at home.) 

A great situational play (and a great price,) as all signs point to TEXAS bouncing-back.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels.

Shohei Ohtani did not pitch in the All-Star game, but batted second in the AL order. He likely would have been the starting pitcher if he did decide to take the mound. He was last year.

Ohtani enters the second half with a chip on his shoulder and I think he'll just be too much for counterpart JP France and the Astros to handle.

France is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA, and overall he's been good this year, but this is just a case of the Houston starter being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

With a win, LA moves back to .500 and gets the second half started off with a win in front of the home town crowd, a place where they're still a respectable 23-20 thus far.

After faltering down the stretch of the first half, I'm expecting a response from the Angels here with their "ace" on the mound.

Lay the price, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Astros.

This is a public play, but I still really like the Astros here, and at this price, I can't avoid playing it.

Seattle is now 44-43, one game over .500 after winning six of its last seven, including the first two games of this series. 

Note though that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent.

A big starting pitching mismatch as well, as Bryan Woo is 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA for the M's, while Framber Valdez is 7-6 with a 2.49 ERA for the Astros.

A letdown is imminent here for Seattle after finally getting over the .500 hump.

(This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels.

After three straight losses, including a 6-2 setback to open this interleague series, I expect the Angels to finally bounce back here on Saturday. Great price considering that they're 5-1 in their last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

They're also 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight home losses in a row.

Arizona goes with Ryne Nelson, who is 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA. LA counters with Tyler Anderson, who is 4-2 with a 5.54 ERA. 

For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash." The overall situation, combined with the above listed ATS trends (and also taking into account this extremely reasonable price), however do indeed make LA the correct call here on Saturday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Red Sox.

After dropping four in a row, including the first two in this interleague series, I like the Red Sox to dig deep and deliver here at home in the finale. Note that Boston is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Red Sox are also 8-4 in their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row.

Miami has won four in a row, but with a National League matchup at the Braves starting tomorrow, an imminent letdown is imminent in my opinion.

Jesus Luzardo is 6-5 with a 3.77 ERA for the Marlins, while Brayan Bello is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA for the Red Sox.

Bello gets the slight nod on the bump for the home field advantage, and when taking into account the other situational and trend based factors listed above, the value here is for sure on the revenge-minded home side.

The play is BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* MISMATCH on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Two really good teams, and two really good starting pitchers. 

But Tampa is just 20-17 on the road, while Arizona is 23-18 at home. 

I think that the home field advantage will turn out to be the difference-maker in the opener of this interleague series. 

Taj Bradley is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA for the Rays, hwile Zac Gallen is 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the D-Backs.

At this price, and here at home, Gallen and ARIZONA are the correct calls in my opinion.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Guardians.

Both teams have underperformed. Both really need a win. Both starters have been above average to this point.

Wade Miley is 4-2 with a 3.28 ERA for the Brewers, while Shane Bieber is 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA for the Guardians.

Home field advantage here is the difference-maker for us, as it benefits Bieber greatly. The Guardians have now won four straight and I expect this string of success to continue here for at least one more night.

(This is the abridged version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!)

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Yankees.

Bryan Woo is 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA for the Mariners. The rookie is actually really good, and he's coming off his best performance of the year by striking out nine on Friday and allowing two runs over 5 2/3's innings vs. the White Sox.

But, I still think that at this price, Domingo German and the home side are the correct call. German is 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and despite coming off a terrible outing, he'll be feeling confident here facing Seattle, as he's 3-0 with a 4.22 ERA in four career appearances vs. it. 

Seattle will once again be without the services of lead off man JP Crawford, and that really does affect this Seattle line-up.

The value play of the week is on NEW YORK on Thursday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins.

Minnesota comes in as the hungrier team here. The Twins have now lost three straight, including the first two of this four games series.

But now with their ace on the hill, I expect the home side to draw the line in the sand and deliver. Note that the Twins are 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight losses in a row.

They're also still 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

After six straight victories, I say the Red Sox have a letdown here.

The advantage in starting pitching also goes to Minnesota as mentioned above.

Boston goes with Garrett Whitlock, who is a respectable 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA.

Minnesota counters with Sonny Gray, who is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA.

The overall situation, combined with what I deem to be a very reasonable price considering the overwhelming situational and trends based factors working in favor of it here, does indeed make MINNESOTA the savvy call here in this matchup on Wednesday night.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PITCHER MISMATCH on the Brewers.

Both teams came into this series hot, but the D-Backs laid the hammer down in their decisive 9-1 victory. They're now 3-1 in their last four.

The loss snapped a three-game win streak for the Brewers, who previous to that had lost six straight.

It's all hands on deck here for Milwaukee which will look to avoid another losing streak and make an immediate return to the winner's circle.

Colin Reah is 3-4 with a 4.71 ERA for the Brewers. He also has a respectable 1.26 WHIP. I'm giving him the big nod over his counterpart Ryne Nelson, who is 3-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. 

Milwaukee is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite.

Good value here on the hungry BREWERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Brewers.

After losing three of four to Philadelphia, the D-Backs bounced back by taking two of three from Cleveland over the weekend. They dropped yesterday's contest 12-3 though and I think, despite their "ace" on the hill, that they'll have a difficult time here as well in this difficult road venue.

The Brewers have been playing a lot better of late and come in with a ton of momentum after taking all three from Pittsburgh here over the weekend. 

Merrill Kelly is 8-3 with a 3.04 ERA for Arizona, while Corbin Burnes is 5-4 with a 3.44 ERA for the Brewers.

Burnes is 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona, while Kelly is 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts vs. Milwaukee.

I'm giving Burnes the advantage here at home, and that'll help in pushing the scales in favor of the home side, making this a really fair price in my opinion.

The play is MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Padres.

I really like the Rays, and think they're a dangerous club that can essentially win "on any given Sunday." I also really like Yonny Chirinos.

That said, I think this one definitely favors the Padres. San Diego looks to build off yesterday's win and it catches the Rays in a good spot here, as I expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" to a day off, before five straight at home, starting with the now floundering Orioles, followed by the pathetic Royals.

Musgrove is the correct call at home here, for a Padres team desperate to get on a win streak.

All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 

The play is SAN DIEGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* IL GOM on the Astros.

I think Houston offers great value to bounce back and avenge yesterday's 2-1 loss as a -170 favorite to the Reds in yesterday's series opener. 

Note that Houston is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

The Reds have won six straight now, but all good things have to come to an end. I say Cinncinnait finally suffers a letdown here.

These starters are pretty evenly matched, as Hunter Greene is 1-4 with a 4.01 ERA for the REds, while Brandon Bielak is 3-3 with a 4.01 ERA for the Astros.

Bielak though definitely gets the small nod here because of the "home field" advantage, and combined with the above listed "revenge" angle, as I said off the top, I think we're getting great value overall on HOUSTON to bounce back here tonight at home.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* WINNER on the Cubs.

This is a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side, and I think that'll be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Cubs this afternoon.

Baltimore has won six of seven, but I think it'll stumble here vs. this hungry Chicago side that needs to make up some ground.

The Cubs enter with momentum now of their own after winning five of their last six, including just sweeping the Pirates.

As mentioned, this is a starting pitching matchup which definitely favors Chicago, as Cole Irvin is 1-2 with a 7.85 ERA and 1.75 WHIP for the Orioles, while Kyle Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the Cubs.

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

10* Yankees (BOOKIEKILLER)

It's always an exciting matchup whenever these two teams get together, but even more so when you have two big name starting pitchers going head to head.

That said, considering the form he enters in, I just think the value here lies with Gerritt Cole and the visiting New York Yankees to build on their subway series-opening win last night.

Cole does come into this one having an awesome year so far as he's 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Justin Verlander was a huge off-season signing for the Mets, but he started the season on the injured list after surgery. He enters at 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Verlander is fantastic, but this is all about "RECENT FORM" for me. Cole is also 3-0 with a 2.98 ERA on the road, while Verlander is 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA at home.

Great value on a red hot pitcher, the play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Guardians.

Cleveland's offense has come to life of late and I think it'll build off yesterday's series opening 10-9 victory. 

The Guardians have in fact posted 25 total runs over their last three straight victories. 

They have the advantage on the mound as well in my opinion, with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 0.00), who returned from injury to go five scoreless last time out. He's 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. 

The Astros counter with JP France (1-1, 3.44), who faces this red-hot offense for the first time in his career. 

All about the VALUE here folks. The play is CLEVELAND.

Good luck, NP

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Jays.

WE expect the Jays to bounce back after yesterday's 11-4 loss. Note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Previous to yesterday's meltdown, the Jays had won four sraight and six of their last eight. Houston has won four of its last five, but we're finally expecting a small letdown here. The Astros hand the ball to Hunter Brown, who is 5-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Difficult to say too many negative things about Brown, so we won't bother. He's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. He'll be opposed by battle-tested Kevin Gausman, who is 4-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The overall situation points to TORONTO exacting a little revenge here on Tuesday night.

Good luck, TIR

8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Mariners.

After B2B home losses to open this series, we love the Mariners to bounce-back in the finale. Note that Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. Clarke Schmidt is getting the nod for the Yanks out of necessity and he's an unimpressive 2-5 with a 5.58 ERA this season. Schmidt has been a lot better at home as well as he's just 1-4 in New York with a 4.75 ERA, compared to 1-1 on the road to go along with a ballooned 7.37 ERA. We definitely like George Kirby in this matchup, as he's battle tested already this year, now 5-4 with a highly-respectable 3.43 ERA and 51 to 6 strikeout to walk ratio. And finally, this also sets up as a potential LOOK AHEAD spot for the Yanks as well, as they'll have one night off after this game, before a three-game series at the Dodgers, a big prime time matchup that will be carried by all of the networks etc. Great price on revenge-minded SEATTLE.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Diamondbacks.

We are all contrarian at heart here over at The Insiders Room, however we still like Arizona in this spot. The Diamondbacks have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 in their last five after three straight losses. They lost the first two games of this series, which is also significant to note here, as Arizona is 8-4 in its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Tanner Houck has been pedestrian for the Sox this year, as he's just 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA. Merrill Kelly has once again led the way for the D-Backs this year, he enters 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA. With a day off before a home series vs. the Reds, we expect the Red Sox to get caught flat-footed here. Lay the short price, the play is Arizona.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Marlins.

After three straight losses, iincluding the first two in this series as favorites here in Colorado, we like the Marlins to bounce back in the finale of this three-game series with their ace on the mound. Note that Miami is 6-2 in its last eight after three or more straight losses in a row. Sandy Alcantara is just 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA for the Marlins, but we still give him the big nod over Karl Kaufmann of the Rockies, who is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA and who is being pressed into service here. Look for ALCANTARA and the MARLINS to take advantage.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers.

After seven straight victories, we're expecting the Astros to take a step back in the opener of this interleague series. And after snapping a three-game slide with a win in their last outing, we like the home side to buckle down and deliver. Christian Javier is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA, but we still give the nod to Corbin Burnes at home, who is 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA. Look for Burnes to be the difference-maker in this one. The play is MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Angels.

With their "ace" on the mound, we expect the Angels to dig deep here in the finale of this three-game series. LA lost 6-2 yesterday, but note that it's 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Pablo Lopez is faces his former team here, and he's 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Shohei Ohtani though is 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA. Ohtani is underpriced here at home in our opinion. Lay the price with confidence, the play is the ANGELS.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Phillies.

Coming into this series on Friday night, the Phillies have lost four straight. Whether they win or lose on Friday, we think this Saturday matchup absolutely favors Aaron Nola and the home side. Nola is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA after allowing four runs off six hits over seven innings in a loss to the Rockies in his last outing. Last year Nola was 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA in front of the home town crowd and as we mentioned above, he for sure has the advantage of his counterpart Jameson Taillon, who is 0-2 with a 6.66 ERA after allowing four runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Astros in his last outing. Look for the hungry home side to take advantage of what we feel is a lop-sidedly favorable starting pitching matchup. Lay the price, the play is PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT  OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Orioles.

The Angels won the opener 9-5 with Ohtani on the hill, and Baltimore then bounced back with the 7-3 win yesterday. We're expecting the home side to build off yesterday's victory. The Angels are 12-12 on the road, while Baltimore is 14-7 at home. Griffin Canning gets the call for the Angels and he's 2-1 with a 6.38 ERA. He' been nothing special. Kyle Bradish is 1-1 with a 4.56 ERA so far for the Orioles. Baltimore is playing at a much higher level overall than the Angels, and has been more consistent across the board, while playing in a much tougher division. The Angels bullpen has been shaky at best this year, so Baltimore also wins in that department. When you add it all up, we feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Run, don't walk to bet this one. The play is BALTIMORE.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Mets.

We're going to lay the price here and expect New York to lay the hammer down in the opener of this interleague series. The Mets have been trading wins/losses over their last seven games, and off a 10-3 loss at Washington yesterday afternoon, we expect this pattern to continue here in this favorable matchup. The Rays of course have been the talk of the league to open up this year, but they actually have started to regress of late, going just 2-4 in their last six. Off a tough 8-7 win at New York two nights ago, we think that Jalen Beeks will have his hands full on the road today. Beeks is once again starting out of necessity and he's so far just 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. Justin Verlander counters for the home side and he's 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. It's our belief that this line could/should be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence, the play is New York!

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Angels.

The Angels are 21-20, while the Orioles are 26-14. Baltimore plays in a tough division, but we still say this one will be decided almost entirely be these starting pitchers. At least, we feel that Shoei Ohtani at this price, despite being on the road, and in this matchup, offers fantastic overall value. Ohtani is 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, while his counterpart Grayson Rodriguez is 2-0, but with a poor 5.08 ERA. The Angels are desperate for a spark after dropping four of their last five, and we're counting on Ohtani being that torch. Lay the price, the play is LA.

Good luck, TIR

8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers.

The Brewers snapped a two-game slide with a 5-1 win here in yesterday's series opener and we like the NL Central leader to keep the foot on the gas here on Saturday in another favorable matchup. The Royals hand the ball to Zack Greinke, who is 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA, while the Brewers counter with Adrian Houser, hwo is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Look for Houser to get the better of his floundering counterpart and lay this price with confidence. The play is MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Orioles.

The Pirates were the talk of the town over the first month of the season, but they've since come back down to Earth, having lost ten of their last 11 after yesterday's 6-3 series opening loss here. We say this streak of futility continues in this lop-sided starting pitching mismatch. The Orioles play in the most difficult division in MLB and they've now won three straight. They hand the ball to Tyler Wells, who is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA. The Pirates counter with the volatile Roansy Contreras, who is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA. At some point the Pirates will start to offer some value, but at this point we're absolutely expecting their slide back into mediocrity will continue for a while. Lay the price with confidence, the play is BALTIMORE.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Mariners.

Seattle is 8-7 on the road, while Detroit is 8-7 at home. Despite that, we feel this is one that favors Marco Gonzales and the visiting side. Gonzales is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA for the Mariners this season and he's 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in seven career starts vs. Detroit. The Tigers' Matt Boyd is just 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA. He's 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in six career appearances vs. Seattle, but the current form of these starters does favor Gonzales here. We think Detroit takes a step back here after a successful six-game road trip which saw them go 4-2. The play is SEATTLE.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Giants.

Both teams need a win, but we'll argue that San Francisco is the hungrier club in the opener of this three-game series. The Giants are 16-20, and the D-Backs are 20-17. San Francisco has lost three of its last four, including two of three in the Nation's capital this week. Arizona has also lost three of its last four, including two in a row at home as a favorite vs. Miami. Alex Cobb is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA for the Giants, while Tommy Henry is 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA for the D-Backs. The sample size is still just too small for Henry here, but we feel he's in over his head. Overall, the line value is really good here considering the talent discrepancy between these starters. The play is SAN FRANCISCO.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Angels.

Two good teams that we're all familiar with. Two really good starting pitchers, but we think that Ohtani at this price at home is well worth the cost of admission. Houston continues to struggle, almost entirely due to injury issues here early on in the season. The Angels took the opener yesterday by a score of 6-4 and the can hand Houston a fourth straight series loss with another victory today. Framber Valdez is 2-4 with a 2.60 ERA, while Ohtani is 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA. LA has won six of eight and with Ohtani getting the slight nod over Valdez in this matchup, purely because of the "home field advantage," we're expecting the momentum to continue here. Great value overall, the play is LA.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the White Sox.

The Royals are one of the worst teams in MLB, while the White Sox have started to turn the corner with their play over the last two weeks. We're expecting both of these trajectories to continue for these team's tonight in Kansas City. Chicago is only 12-23, but it's won five of its last seven, including taking two of three at Cincinnati over the weekend. That includes yesterday's 17-4 destruction of the Reds. KC is just 9-26 this year, including only 3-16 at home. Dylan Cease is 2-1 with a 4.58 ERA for the White Sox, while Zach Greinke is 1-4 with a 5.25 ERA for the Royals. Cease is 4-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 12 career starts vs. KC, while Greinke is 10-10 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 career appearances vs. Chicago. But the "current" form of both Cease, and the surging White Sox make them worth the price of admission today in a nutshell. Lay the price with confidence, the play is CHICAGO.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Blue Jays.

"Momentum" in sports, can be a very real, almost tangible factor. It's often a factor in which we've found that the oddsmakers have a hard-time properly quantifying into a line. Toronto has snapped a five-game slide with back-to-back blowout wins here in Pittsburgh, winning 4-0 in Game 1 and 8-2 yesterday and we're expecting this "momentum" from the Jays to continue here on Sunday. The Pirates got out to the unrealistic start to the 2023 MLB season and have already now started to come back down to Earth. We say that regression continues here. Yusei Kikuchi is 4-0 with a 4.02 ERA for the Jays, while Roansy Contreras is 3-2 with a 4.09 ERA for the Pirates. With Pittsburgh continuing to deal with injuries to key players, we look for TORONTO to contiue to build its "momentum."

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Dodgers.

For this three-game report, we're going to keep our analysis very succinct. The Dodgers six-game win streak came to an end in yesterday's 5-2 series-opening loss here in San Diego last night. The Padres have won five of their last six, but we think that LA is the correct call here on Saturday, considering the talent discrepancy between these starters. Dustin May is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA for the Dodgers, while Blake Snell is 1-4 with a 5.28 ERA for the Padres. Great value here on LA to bounce back.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Royals.

For this three-game report, we're going to keep our analysis very succinct. These are two of the worst teams in the league, but the A's opened up the series with a 12-8 victory. Note that Oakland is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs in a victor in its previous outing. Also note that the Royals are 4-1 in their last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Singer gets the big nod on the bump as well over Waldichuk by six of the ten Insiders. Lay the price with confidence, the play is KANSAS CITY.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Jays.

After four straight losses, including the first three of this four-game series here in Boston, we like Toronto to bounce back big with Kevin Gausman on the hill. Note that the Jays are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge three or more straight losses against an opponent. Guaman hasn't been perfect this year (2-2, 2.33 ERA), but he has a big advantage over Brayan Bello (0-1, 6.75.) Bello has been bouncing back and forth to the minors/majors and clearly, he's been thrown to the wolves in this matchup. Considering the talent discrepancy between these starters, and taking into account these other situational and trend-based factors listed above, we actually feel that this price should/could, in fact, be a LOT larger. The value swings to the desperate Jays. The play is TORONTO.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the White Sox.

The biggest disappointment in all of MLB right now is the White Sox, as they're just 9-21 overall. The Twins are 17-13 overall, and just 7-7 on the road after dropping the opener here yesterday by a score of 3-2. If you'd have told us that we could get Dylan Cease at this price at home in this matchup before the season stared, we'd have called you crazy. Chicago won't be lacking motivation today as it faces its division rival. We think that Cease does in fact have a much bigger advantage in this matchup than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. He's 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA this season and who is 4-4 with a 4.83 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Twins. He'll be opposed by Louis Varland, who makes his second big league start of the season here today in a spot start for the injured Tyler Mahle. The advantage here for sure lies with the veteran Cease and the undervalued home side. The play is the WHITE SOX.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUF OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Astros.

Off two straight losses to open this series, we're expecting Houston to bounce back in the finale. Neither starter has been very good this season. Bailey Falter is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA for the Phillies, while Jose Urquidy is 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA for the Astros. Houston though is 6-2 in its last eight in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. The Astros are still down Altuve, but the Phillies are still down Harper. We finally expect Philadelphia to take a step back here as it gets caught looking ahead to its much more high-profile series starting a Chavez Ravine tomorrow night. Lay the price, the play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, TIR

6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Reds.

Cincinnati has won four in a row and we think it offers great value at this price to keep that momentum rolling, especially considering the current form of these teams the starting pitchers. Yesterday the Reds won the series opener 11-7. The visitors go with Hunter Greene, who is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA, while the home side counters with Kyle Muller, who is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA. Look for the "in form" Reds to continue to build momentum and for Greene to earn his first "W" of the season. The play is CINCINNATI.

Good luck, TIR

9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Dodgers.

We had a play on the Dodgers in their 8-7 victory here last night, as they halted the Pirates seven-game win streak. Note that those seven wins came against teams without winning records. The Dodgers have started the season injured, but they're now starting to regain their form which saw them win 111 games last season. The Pirates recent surge will prove to be just a blip on the radar. Will Pittsburgh improve from last season? It would be hard not to. Regardless, for this next contest we also like LA to build off yesterday's win, while all signs point to the Pirates now having a classic letdown here after their win skein was finally broken. Gonsolin and Contreras are pretty much a wash. The Dodgers bullpen is once again rounding into shape and all things considered, we feel the value lies in laying the price here. And that's the call, the play is LA.

Good luck, TIR

8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Dodgers.

After seven straight victories, we're expecting the wheels to come off the bus for the Pirates here finally on Tuesday night. After going 13-4 over a 17-day stretch, Pittsburgh had a day off yesterday, and we expect that layoff to throw a small monkey-wrench into the chemistry. Note that LA has won three of its last four. Note that during their run, this will be the Pirates first series against a team with a winning record. Sndergaard is 0-3 with a 4.92 ERA for the Dodgers, while Oviedo is 2-1 with 2.22 ERA for the Bucs. Syndergaard is coming off a hard-luck loss vs. his former team the Mets, going six innings and giving up two runs. He's 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA in five career starts vs. the Pirates. He also has a 19:4 K:W ratio already. After posting a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts, look for Oviedo to come crashing back down to Earth here. Lay the short price, the play is the DODGERS.

Good luck, TIR

8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Braves.

After two straight losses, including a 6-3 setback in yesterday's series opener, we like the Braves to bounce back in the decider of this two-game series. Note that ATL is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Both starters have been great so far to open the season, but we'll give the slight nod to Max Fried at home. Fried is 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA. Cristian Javier is 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA for the Astros. Javier has made three relief appearances vs. the Braves and he's 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA, giving up three home runs in three innings. The advantage swings to Fried at home here, and overall we feel we're getting a great price. The play is ATL.

Good luck, TIR

8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers.

Off yesterday's 5-3 series opening setback, we like the Brewers to bounce back here on Saturday. Boston hands the ball to Garret Whitlock, who is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA, while the home side counters with Wade Miley, who is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA. Miley is red hot to open the season, and we don't see that surge ending today. He's struck out 14 in 18 innings with only three walks. All things considered, we view this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, TIR

8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Yankees.

The Jays have lost three of their last four. They lost two of three to the Astros, including an 8-1 setback in the most recent. We feel they're the ones that continue to be overpriced on the road, getting a little TOO much respect here in the Bronx. The Yahks have won four of their last five, including a 9-3 blowout victory over the Angels yesterday. Nestor Cortes Jr. went deep and the bullpen is fresh for the home side. Yusei Kikuchi is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA for the Jays, but regression seems imminent (he's 2-3 with a 4.07 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Yanks.) The home side counters with Domingo German, who is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He's 2-4 with a 3.72 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Jays. The Yanks have limited their opposition to just 11 runs over their last five games. Look for that streak of excellence to continue here in this important early season divisional matchup. The play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, TIR

8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the White Sox.

The White Sox just snapped a three-game slide with a tight 7-6 win yesterday, but they'll be eager to keep the momentum rolling here after starting just 6-9 so far. Baltimore is 8-7 and 4-4 on the road. This however is a big starting pitching mismatch, and because of that, we're going to have no issues laying the price. Baltimore starter Grayson Rodriguez is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA, while Chicago ace Dylan Cease is 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA (note that Cease is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in four career starts vs. the Orioles.) This is Rodriguez's third ever MLB start and we all feel that he's been thrown to the wolves in this one. Lay the price, the play is CHICAGO.

Good luck, TIR

This is a 10/10 CONSENSUS REPORT on the Mariners.

We really like Marco Gonzalez here at home. This line could/should be larger in our opinion.

Alex Gomber is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA for the Rockies after allowing seven hits over four innings to go along with five runs in a setback to the lowly Nationals in his last outing. Gomber was at his worst on the road last year, going just 2-3 with a 6.03 ERA over 15 games.

Marco Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 4.22 ERA for the Mariners after allowing one run over six innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Guardians. Gonzalez has to be feeling confident here, as he finished with a highly-respectable 3.01 ERA in front of the home town crowd last season.

As stated off the top, we feel this line should in fact be much larger. We're on the MARINERS.

Good luck, TIR

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros.

I like the Astros to dig deep here and win this series. They have the better hitting line-up, better bullpen and better starting pitcher on the hill.

Houston turns to Jose Urquidy, who is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, opening this current road trip with a no-decision after allowing one run off seven hits with six K's over 5 1/3's innings vs. the Mets. 

Rich Hill is 0-1 with a 10.00 ERA for the Pirates. He is coming off a no-decision as well after getting shelled for seven runs over four innings vs. the White Sox on Frida. 

Look for Urquidy to guide his team to a solid victory here and lay the price with confidence.

The play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* MOUND MISMATCH on the Cardinals.

After starting 3-7 and off back-to-back losses, including a 7-4 setback in yesterday's series opener, I like Miles Mikolas and the Cards to dig deep here and get the job done against Kyle Freeland and the home side.

Mikolas (0-1, 9.64 ERA) has struggled in back-to-back starts to open the season. He had a decent spring and last year he owned a respectable 4.11 ERA on the road. I think he can bounce back here with a much better performance.

Freeland is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, but regression is imminent in my opinion. Last year Freeland was 5-6 with a 6.00 ERA at home.

The moral of the story here with these starters, is not to overreact to early results. Look for the Cards to be the more desperate team here from the first pitch, and expect that to ultimately be the difference-maker in the outcome of this one.

The play is ST. LOUIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NL GOW on the Diamondbacks.

Two teams that have gotten out to decent starts collide here in Arizona, but I believe this is one that favors the home side. 

The Brewers hand the ball to Wade Miley, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going six innings and striking out three in a victory over the Mets in his debut. Miley was limited last year due to injury, and while he was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home, he was 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. 

Zac Gallen is 0-1 with a 7.59 ERA for the D-Backs after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers in his last outing. After back-to-back duds, I think Gallen settles down here finally.

Note that Gallen was 6-3 with a 2.61 ERA at home last year.

I'm banking on Milwaukee taking a step back here on the road in the opener of this series.

Lay the price, the play is ARIZONA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST FIVE INNING BLOWOUT on the Brewers.

I like the way this one sets up for a FIRST FIVE innings play on Freddy Peralta (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the home side. That said, I also really like Milwaukee for the entire game as well if you don't have access to FIRST FIVE innings picks.

The Cardinals got a much-needed win last night. I was on St. Louis. But I expect an immediate step back here.

Peralta goes up against Jake Woodford (0-1, 12.46.)

Note that Milwaukee's pen has thrown 21 straight scoreless frames and has conceded just three runs all year, the fewest in MLB. And so, if you can't find a FIRST FIVE line, that's why I also really like Milwaukee for the FULL GAME as well.

Peralta gave up two hits over six scoreless in a win over the Mets on Monday. Woodford allowed six runs over four innings (including three homers), in an 8-4 loss to the Braves on Monday.

This is the final game before the Brewers embark on a ten-game road trip, and I expect them to make the most of it.

The play is MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* MISMATCH on the Mariners.

Seattle lost three of four to the Guardians at home to open the season, but the Mariners have taken the first two games here in Cleveland. 

I think the M's can now sweep the series with what I believe is the superior starter on the hill. 

George Kirby is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA for the Mariners after alowing 4 runs off 9 hits over five innings in a loss to the Angels. 

Zach Plesac is 0-0 with a 54.00 ERA, allowing six runs over one innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision vs. the A's on Monday. 

Kirby was 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA on the road last season, and I look for him to settle down here and for the Mariners to keep the momentum rolling.

Lay the price, the play is SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* MOUND MISMATCH on the Mets.

After losing three straight at Milwaukee, the Mets have bounced back to take the first two games of this series. And now I like New York to post the series sweep in what is another favorable starting pitching matchup for them.

The visitors hand the ball to Braxton Garrett (0-0, 6.00 ERA), while the home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (0-1, 11.25.) 

Garrett is 0-1 with a 4.08 ERA in four career games vs. New York, while Carrasco is 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Marlins.

I love the veteran Carrasco to bounce back big here in friendly confines and have no issues at all in laying what I feel is a very reasonable mid-sized price.

The play is the METS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NL GOM on the Cardinals.

After four straight losses, including a 4-0 setback here in the series opener, I like the underachieving Cardinals to dig deep here and get back into the winner's circle finally.

Note that St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine off a shutout loss vs. an opponent. 

Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 5.40 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while Eric Lauer (1-0, 3.38) counters for the home side.

True, the Brewers are rolling, but after six straight wins, I believe a small mental lapse in motivation happens here. 

Lauer is just 2-3 with a 6.46 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Cardinals.

Montgomery is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in three career starts vs. Milwaukee.

Look for the desperate CARDINALS to get the job done finally.

Good luck, NP

This is a 9* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Red Sox.

Boston is now 3-4 after opening this three-game series with a 6-3 win yesterday.

The Red Sox were swept at home by the Pirates, and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here Saturday afternoon in what I feel is a big starting pitching mismatch that works in their favor.

The visitors go with Tanner Houck (1-0, 5.40 ERA), who gave up three runs and struck out five vs. Baltimore in his season debut. 

Detroit counters with Joey Wentz (0-1, 5.06), who allowed three runs over five innings on the same afternoon in Tampa Bay.

Houck was 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA on the road last season, and I believe he's the correct call here on Saturday afternoon.

Lay the price, the play is BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on the Astros.

It's just the start of the season, but the Astros are in need of a win here tonight, and after a slow start, I do expect a better performance all around in this one from the visiting side.

Houston dropped the opener of this series 3-2 yesterday. The Twins starting pitching has been phenomenal to open the season, but I say that regression is in order after this unsustainable streak of excellence.

Joe Ryan is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA this year, but note that he's 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start vs. Houston last year. 

Houston had a six-game win streak in this series going till yesterday. Luis Garcian is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA for the Astros, but note tha the's 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in four career outings vs. the Twins.

I look for the hungrier visiting side to avenge yesterday's setback.

The play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the LA Angels.

Both teams are loaded with hitting talent. I just think Toronto is getting a little too much respect here on the road, as I give the nod to Patrick Sandoval in this starting pitching matchup.

The Jays are 4-3 overall so far, all on the road. The Angels are 4-2 so far, and this is their first home series.

Sandoval (1-0, 1.80 ERA) won just six games last year over 27 starts despite a 2.91 ERA for the Angels. 

He'll be opposed by Chris Bassitt (0-1, 24.30), who allowed nine runs over three innings in forgettable loss to the Cardinals. 

I expect Toronto to take a step back here now after three straight wins at Kansas City.

Good value here on Sandoval and the hungry home side.

The play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on the Rockies.

I think Kyle Freeland and the home side are worth the price of admission in this spot. 

Freeland is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, while Josiah Gray is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA for the Nationals.

Freeland was part of Team USA in the WBC last month and he tossed six innings total and allowed two runs, striking out tournament MVP Shohei Ohtani as a highlight.

Freeland has to be feeling confident here facing Washington as well, as he's 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA in seven career outings vs. the Nats.

And that's bad news for a Washington team that's scored two or fewer runs in four games this year. So far the Nationals have only hit two home runs this season. 

Gray is actually 2-0 against the Rockies despite a 5.03 ERA spanning four career matchups.

But I say that Gray takes a step back here in this difficult road venue. Freeland could/should in fact be a much bigger fav here.

Lay the price, the play is COLORADO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP DOG OF APRIL on the A's.

I like the way this one sets up for the slight underdog A's, as I feel they have the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Great value on the home side.

Kyle Muller is 1-0 after going five innings and allowing one run vs. the Angels in his opener. He enters with a sharp 1.80 ERA. 

Hunter Gaddis counters for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 9.82 ERA after getting roughed up by the M's allowing four runs over just three innings. 

Muller brings over a winning mindset from his time in Atlanta and I look for him to easily get the better of his counterpart.

The play is OAKLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* HOMERUN ROUT on the Cardinals.

I like the Cards to bounce back in the finale of this three-game set with the Braves after dropping the first two, and before hitting the road for a difficult trip starting in Milwaukee.

Miles Mikolas is 0-0 with a 13.50 ERA for the Cards after allowing five runs off ten hits over just 3 1/3's innings to the Jays on Thursday: "Death by a thousand cuts sometimes," Mikolas said. "I don't think I can remember a game where a team has made that much soft contact and had just about everything drop in for a hit. Broken bats. Just kind of rolling them through the infield."

Mikolas threw 12 scoreless innings in Spring training though, so I say the Jays game is an outlier. While only 1-3 lifetime vs. ATL, Mikolas does own the respectable 3.04 ERA over those five appearances. 

Bryce Elder has been recalled from Triple A to make this start for the Braves. In ten big-league starts last year he went 2-4 with a 3.17 ERA. 

But, I still say that Mikolas is the correct call here.

Look for the revenge-minded home side to find a way to salvage this final game; lay the price, the play is ST. LOUIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cardinals.

I like the Cards to bounce back here after yesterday's 8-4 series opening loss. 

The Braves hand the ball to Dylan Dodd, who makes his MLB debut today. 

He'll be opposed by Steven Matz, who was 5-3 with a 5.25 ERA in 15 appearances last year. He's 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Braves. 

I think Matz and ST. LOUIS are the correct call, great value overall.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AL GOM on the Rangers.

The Orioles are 1-2, and the Rangers are 3-0. Baltimore scored 23 runs in its opening series, and Texas had 29. 

Kyle Bradish was 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA in 23 starts as a rookie for the Orioles last season. He was 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA in five starts in the Spring.

Jon Gray counters for the home side. I like the veteran here. He was 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA over 24 starts in 2022. In two career outings vs. Baltimore he's 1-1 with a 4.52 ERA. Gray looked great in Spring training though, going 3-1 with a minuscule 1.02 ERA over five games. 

All things considered, I think we're getting fantastic line value here. 

The play is TEXAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UPSET BLOWOUT on the Cardinals.

Both teams enter at 2-1. The Braves looked "OK" against the lowly Nationals, while the Cardinals looked pretty dominant over the Jays.

St. Louis does in fact enter with a team batting average of .373, which leads the league.

Charlie Morton was 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA in 31 starts last year for the Braves. He has struggled with the Cardinals throughout his career though, going 3-12 with a 5.33 ERA in 20 starts vs. them.

The home side counters with Jake Woodford, who was 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 2022. He had a strong spring, striking out 18 and walking five over 18 innings while allowing four runs on 13 hits, and I believe he carries that momentum over here.

Great value here on the home side. The play is ST. LOUIS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Padres.

I play underdogs, I play totals, I play first half picks, I play parlays, teasers, and I also am not afraid to lay chalk and hammer a favorite when I think my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger fav.

And that's the case here with the Padres. I think they should be more like a -275 fav in this case, so there is plenty of value to be had. 

Freeland has had success here in the past vs. San Diego, but Nick Martinez has a golden opportunity here to highlight his talent with injuries to starters Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Martinez was 4-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 42 games last season. He was particularly effective against the Rockies last year, as in six appearances he posted a 3.31 ERA spanning 16 1/3's innings of work.

Lay the price with condfidence, the play is SAN DIEGO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Astros.

I'm going to lay the price here on the home side and expect it to dig deep and deliver after losing 3-2 as a -140 favorite. 

Lance Lynn has always had a hell of a time against the Astros, as he's 0-5 with a ballooned 8.80 ERA over his last five starts vs. Houston. 

Christian Javier is worth the price of admission here. Over 30 appearances for the Astros last year he finished with a tiny 2.54 ERA. He's only faced the White Sox once in his career (last season), and he gave up one run with five K's over five innings in a 4-3 victory.

I expect another victory here today as well. Lay the price, the play is the ASTROS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UPSET BLOWOUT on the Diamondbacks.

I think the Dodgers are poised to take a big step back this season after setting a franchise-record with a 111 wins last year. 

Walker Buehler is going to miss most of the season with Tommy John. Trea Turner is gone. Gavin Lux is out for the season with a knee injury. They still have plenty of talent on the front end, but there are big holes for sure.

The Diamondbacks took a step forward last year, and they should once again take another modest step forward this season as well. 

Julio Urias posted a 2.16 ERA last year. Regression feels imminent to me this season though.

Zac Gallen was 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA last ear. He led the NL with a 0.913 WHIP. He's 1-2 in nine starts vs. the Dodgers, but with a 2.30 ERA (that includes posting a 0.64 ERA in 14 frames vs. them last season.) 

Granted, Urias has had plent of success vs. Arizona as well, going 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA in eight starts.

But, I think Gallen can, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, I feel the value then swings to the undervalued underdog.

The play is ARIZONA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cardinals.

All the pieces are in place for each of these teams to do well this year.

The Jays go with Alex Manoah, who was 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA last year. 

The Cards are favored to win the NL Central this season. Miles Mikolas gets the nod, and he was 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA last year. He faced the Jays' high-powered offense last year and dominated, going seven innings and allowing three earned runs, with St. Louis winning 7-3. 

St. Louis has won its last three Openers and I expect that to once again be the case here. This is a difficult road venue for the Jays on Opening Day, so I say the value for sure here lies with St. Louis.

The play is the CARDINALS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Red Sox.

It's an important early season divisional matchup. Boston let a lot of bettors down last year, but at this price, I think that Corey Kluber and the home side offer really good value.

Kyle Gibson went 10-8 with a poor 5.05 ERA in 31 starts for Philadelphia this year. Gibson is on the downward trajectory of his career, and an Opening Day start on the road will prove to be difficult in my opinion.

Kluber is also on the back-end of his career. He finished 10-10 with a respectable 4.34 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays last year. He's 6-4 in 16 career starts vs. the Orioles though. He's also won four of his seven starts at Fenway as a vistor to go along with a 3.53 ERA.

I say the Orioles take a step back this season, while the Red Sox are poised for improvement.

Those trajectories start here on Opening Day. Lay the price, the play is BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

In my professional opinion, “momentum” is a very real and tangible factor in sports. It’s a factor that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. For arguments sake, lets call Kyle Hendricks and Corey Kluber a “wash” today. The difference for me is clearly at the plate. The big bats of Chicago have come alive in back-to-back elimination games, while the Indians offense continues its inconsistent ways in the postseason. All things considered, I feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on CHICAGO to win the World Series!

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

No need to overthink this one, it’s do or die for the Cubs and Jake Arrieta already has a win in Cleveland. Josh Tomlin has been serviceable, but I think the Cubs’ big bats take advantage. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

No need to overthink this one, down 3-1 in the World Series, it’s do or die for Chicago. Lester has been money all year and he’s been particularly awesome at home. I think the Cubs’ offense finally comes to life in this pressure packed situation and Trevor Bauer gives up a few runs. That’ll be the difference, as all signs point to this one going back to Cleveland! Lay the price.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cleveland Indians.

Momentum is a very real and tangible factor in the playoffs. Corey Kluber has been unstoppable so far in the playoffs and the Indians bullpen has been second to none. John Lackey has been decent, but he’s completely outclassed here in my opinion. The value too good to turn down on the “underdog” Indians today!

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

No need to overthink this one, Josh Tomlin has been decent and the Indians’ bullpen has been impressive, but Chicago now has all the momentum working in its favor and now turns to the red hot Kyle Hendricks, who would most recently get the better of the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw to clinch the World Series ticket. Hendricks is enjoying a career year and has been particularly awesome at home. Lay the price, play on the Cubs.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

No need to overanalyze this one I don’t think as I think the desperate Cubs will do just enough to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole. Jake Arrieta has struggled in the second half of the season, but I’m still giving him a big nod over the Indians’ Trevor Bauer. I think the Cubbies prolific offense responds after the Game 1 shutout and in my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.”

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cleveland Indians.

Kluber and Lester are a wash, both have been on absolute fire in the postseason. But the Indians bullpen has been “lights out,” posting a 1.67 ERA over 41 innings of work. I think that’s going to be the difference tonight. Play on Cleveland.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

I think that Clayton Kershaw and Kyle Hendricks are even right now. Chicago has a big advantage at the plate though, as LA continues to struggle with offensive consistency. I like Hendricks to go deep and for the home side to do just enough to punch its ticket to the World Series.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto looks to prolong what is likely the inevitable but has a big chance to make it two in a row with the clearly superior starter on the hill today. Ryan Maerritt makes his first start of the postseason after filling in well down the stretch. There’s no question that he’s been thrown to the wolves today though. Jays’ veternan Marco Estrada on the other hand has looked great in two postseason starts. He was tagged with the ALCS Game 1 setback, giving up just two runs over eight very strong innings. I’m expecting a lop-sided, wire-to-wire rout.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

Rich Hill has a 6.49 ERA in three career postseason starts. So far Arrieta has an 0-0, 3.00 ERA in the playoffs. Arrieta though finished as one of the best in baseball and the last time he was at Dodger Stadium, he threw a no-hitter. Hill has been good in his home games this season, but has gone through massive regression over the last month. I look for the Cubs’ to bounce back after facing the tough Clayton Kershaw last time out and to do just enough to secure the victory in Game 3.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Toronto Blue Jays.

No need to overthink this one I don’t think. Toronto needs to win this game or it’s all over the Jays. So far the big bats of Toronto have been quiet, but this is a prolific lineup which always produces front of the home town crowd. I’m laying the price with confidence.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the LA Dodgers.

I like the Dodgers to bounce back and take Game 2 with their ace on the mound. It’s true that Kershaw has struggled in the postseason throughout his career. But he comes in off a seven pitch save to secure the win in Game 5 of his NLDS with the Nationals. Kershaw posted a 1.96 ERA in the regular season. Kyle Hendrickson has been superb this year and he’s had success against the Dodgers in the past. I simply think Kersahw’s experience on the big stage will prove to be unvaluable tonight and in my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Dodgers.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

“Rookie” Kenta Maeda had a great regular season, but he struggled in his NLDS matchup against the Nationals, allowing four earned runs over three innings of work. The Cubs’ Lester pitched eight scoreless in his NLDS matchup against the Giants. Note that he’s 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA at home. Play on the Cubs.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Let’s call these starters a “wash.” Toronto’s big bats have come alive at the most opportune of times though, they’d outscore Texas 22-10 in the three-game sweep. The Tribe got the job done with some surprisingly good pitching, but Toronto’s line-up is just too deep. The value too good to turn down in what I think will be an upset in Game 1.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Washington Nationals.

Hill has an 8.00 ERA after two postseason starts. Scherzer had a poor Game 1 outing, but has all the tools in place to get his team to the NLCS. This one highly favors the home side, I think this line should be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence on Washington.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the San Francisco Giants.

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday, but that was then and this is now. I believe “momentum” is a very real tangible factor in the postseason and I think that San Fran has gotten it back. Matt Moore was awesome over the last month. Lackey has more experience, but I’ll still give Moore the slight nod in this matchup. Play on San Francisco.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs can smell the blood in the water. Bumgarner was great in the NL Wild card game, but both he and Arrieta struggled down the stretch of the regular season. I’ll call these starters a “wash” tonight. The difference is at the plate. The Cubs’ offense is clicking and I expect that chemistry to carry over to the West Coast as they do indeed complete the three-game sweep.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Toronto Blue Jays.

Lewis owns a 6.45 lifetime ERA against Toronto. Sanchez faced the Rangers in all five games of last year’s ALDS and went 5.1 scoreless innings. The Jays’ bats have come alive and I’m expecting them to make the most of it in front of the home town crowd. 

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the LA Dodgers.

Max Scherzer has put together another great season, but I’ll still give the nod to Clayton Kershaw in this matchup. The Nats are injured though, while the Dodgers are relatively healthy and I think this will ultimately prove to be the difference tonight. Lay the price.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Boston Red Sox.

Rick Porcello put together the best campaign of his career with a 22-8 record. He’s posted a lifetime 3.61 ERA against the Indians. Trevor Bauer struggled down the stretch and has been domianted by the Red Sox’ bat throughout his career in posting a horrible 7.65 ERA against them. In my humble opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the San Francisco Giants.

Bumgarner has had plenty of success against New York in the past and has been dominant at Citi Field. Syndergaard owns a 3.66 lifetime ERA against the Giants. I think that experience counts in these situations, and all things considered, feel we’re getting an awesome price on San Francisco tonight.

- The BookieKiller Crew

10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Toronto Blue Jays.

For arguments sake, lets call these starters a “wash.” Both have struggled this year at times. Tillman has been rocked by the Jays throughout his career, so too has Stroman by the Orioles. The advantage isn’t at the plate either, as Toronto’s supposed more high-powered line-up has stalled over the last month of the season. The advantage though comes from the home field factor in this one game playoff. That powerful situational factors makes this a price in which i have no issues at all in laying, play on the Jays.

- The BookieKiller Crew