Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-23-17 | Warriors v. Heat +12 | Top | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Miami Heat. As note that the Warriors are just 2-5 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Miami is 3-1 ATS in its last four non-conference games. The Heat have been playing more competitively of late and while I won’t predict an outright upset, i do think they keep this one close. Grab the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-21-17 | Bucks +1 v. Heat | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Milwaukee Bucks. As note that Milwaukee is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 after three or more consecutive SU losses, while Miami is just 9-11 ATS at home and only 1-2 ATS as a home fav of three points or less. I think the deeper Bucks find a way to get the job done against the inconsistent Heat. Play on Milwaukee. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-20-17 | Blazers v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the 76ers. As note that Portland is just 9-15 ATS on the road this year and only 8-13 ATS against teams with losing records, while Philadelphia is 2-1 ATS this season as a home dog of three points or less and 8-4 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. These two teams are moving in different directions, play on Philadelphia. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-19-17 | Suns +12.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Phoenix Suns. As note that Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Cleveland is just 5-9 ATS in the same position and a poor 5-12 ATS against teams with losing records. Expect the young Suns to get out and push the pace of this one and keep it close until the final moments. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-18-17 | Raptors v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Philadelphia 76ers. As note that Toronto is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as a road favorite of 3.5 to six points and just 24-30 ATS in its last 54 after three or more consecutive wins, while Philadelphia is 14-5 ATS this season in revenging a home loss against an opponent. Toronto played a game just last night and I think will be extra tired here. Grab the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-17-17 | Raptors -11 v. Nets | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Toronto Raptors. Hard to imagine the red hot Raptors taking the foot off the gas tonight. Brooklyn has lost ten straight and is just 4-12 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses, while Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games. Lay the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-16-17 | Cavs +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 91-126 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have lost six straight in this series, so expect a major response from the home side tonight. If the Cavs have had one weakness this year, it’s been their play on the road. They needed OT to beat the Kings last time out, a victory which snapped a two-game slide. This one means the world to the Warriors and I think the Cavs will fold up their tents early. Lay the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-13-17 | Hornets v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Philadelphia. These teams are movingin opposite directions right now. I think Philadelphia continues its surge. Also note that Charlotte is just 9-10 ATS on the road this year, while Philadelphia is already 6-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as an underdog and 12-8 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-12-17 | Pelicans v. Nets +5 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Brooklyn Nets. As note that Brooklyn is 8-6 ATS this year against clubs with losing records, while New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS in the same position. It’s all hands on deck for the Nets today, grab as many points as you can. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-11-17 | Knicks -2 v. 76ers | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Knicks. As note that New York is 12-4 ATS this year after a non-conference game and 3-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, while Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS after a divisional contest and only 5-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. With Rose back in the line-up, I think New York gets back on track and brings Philadelphia back down to earth after winning three of its last four. Play on the Knicks. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-10-17 | Bulls v. Wizards -10 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Wizards. As note that The Bulls are expected to rest both Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade. Also note that the Wizards are 13-7 ATS at home this eyar and 12-8 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. Look for the home side to take advantage of the situation with a big blowout win and lay the points with confidence. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-06-17 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Philadelphia 76ers. As note that Philadelphia is 11-5 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Boston is just 6-9 ATS at home and only 1-3 ATS when playing with two days rest. I think the home side comes in a bit complacent and the visitors come away with a comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-05-17 | Nets +10.5 v. Pacers | Top | 109-121 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Brooklyn Nets. As note that Brooklyn is already 3-1 ATS this year as a road dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Indiana is 0-5 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. Looks like a classic “trap” game for the Pacers, look for the revenge minded Nets to keep this one closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-04-17 | Bucks v. Knicks +2 | Top | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the New York Knicks. This is the first game of a home and home set and I think the struggling home side will finally snap its five game losing streak. Note that Milwaukee is just 6-9 ATS on the road, while New York is 11-6 ATS at home. Grab the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
01-03-17 | Raptors +6 v. Spurs | Top | 82-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Toronto Raptors. As note that Toronto is already 4-0 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games and 16-7 ATS in its last 23 after scoring 105 points or more, while San Antonio is just 7-8 ATS this season against teams with winning records. I think the high-scoring Raptors have a legitimate shot at taking this one outright, as the Spurs will have a hard time matching up against the smaller/faster lineup. Grab the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER Toronto. As note that ATL is just 2-4 ATS after a loss of ten points or more this season, while Toronto is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 after scoring 105 points or more. The Raptors are rolling, while ATL comes off a disturbing loss at home to the Magic. Play on TORONTO. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
12-13-16 | Grizzlies +13.5 v. Cavs | Top | 86-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Memphis Grizzlies As note that Memphis is 10-6 ATS as an underdog this year and 5-3 ATS against clubs with winning records, while Cleveland is just 1-7 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories. Grab the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
12-09-16 | Hawks v. Bucks -3 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Milwaukee Bucks. Note that Atlanta is just 4-8 ATS on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 7-5 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The Hawks have been wildly inconsistent, while the Bucks are arguably playing their best ball of the entire year. I’m banking on all of these trends continuing tonight. Play on the Hawks. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
12-07-16 | Pistons v. Hornets -5.5 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Charlotte. As note that Detroit is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 on the road and only 7-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Charlotte is 6-4 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more and 2-1 ATS against the Central. I expect these strong trends to continue, play on Charlotte. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
12-06-16 | Knicks +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER the New York Knicks. As note that the Knicks are 7-1 ATS this year after a non-conference games, while Miami is already 0-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest. Miami is struggling in all facets and with a game tomorrow night agains the Cavs, I look for the deeper visitors to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on New York. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
12-01-16 | Mavs v. Hornets -10.5 | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUNISHER the Charlotte Hornets. Note that Dallas is already just 1-5 ATS this year in non-conference games, while Charlotte is 4-2 ATS in the same position. Dallas is injured, I think the home side takes advantage. Lay the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
11-30-16 | Grizzlies v. Raptors -11.5 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUNISHER on the Toronto Raptors. As note that Memphis is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Toronto is 5-1 ATS against teams with winning records this year and 4-1 ATS after a win by ten points or more. Tough spot for the visitors, I’m expecting the home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
11-29-16 | Magic +14 v. Spurs | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUNISHER on Orlando. Analysis posted shortly … | |||||||
11-23-16 | Raptors v. Rockets -3 | Top | 115-102 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Houston Rockets. Note that Toronto is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 after playing three consecutive road games and just 2-4 ATS in non-conference contests, while Houston is 5-1 ATS in non-conference games and 5-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per contest. Lay the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Golden State Warriors. No need to overanalyze this one. Cleveland has put together a couple of awesome games, but no team in NBA finals history has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit and suffice it to say, we definitely don’t expect that extremely strong trend to get broken today. The Warriors earned home court advantage throughout the playoffs for this exact reason and now they’ll look to cash in. There’s no way that Golden State loses three straight games to end the year. And note that the Cavs are just 8-11 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while Golden State is 15-10 ATS in the same position. | |||||||
06-16-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 52 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Golden State Warriors. This selection is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics, as note that Golden State is an amazing 2-0 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 9-3 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite, while Cleveland is just 18-24 ATS this season after a victory by ten points or more. Draymond Green is back and the Warriors now look to close, I’m grabbing the points. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -7 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -104 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Golden State Warriors. With or without Draymond Green in the line-up, we like the Warriors to close out this series and get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Clearly Green is a big part of the team, but just like in Football, it’s “next man up” for the home side. We can expect the “Splash Brothers” to reign 3’s (GS had a league Finals record 17 in Game 4) and I simply can’t see LeBron James winning this one on his own. The Warriors incredible depth has shut down the rest of Cleveland’s role players and things aren’t going to get any easier for them in Oakland. Note that Cleveland is just 1-2 ATS this year when trailing in a playoff series and only 2-5 ATS this season in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Play on the Warriors. - The BookieKiller Crew | |||||||
06-10-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 34 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Golden State. I have riden the Warriors in all three games so far and I’m back on the defending champs again. At this point of the season, there’s not too much I can tell you about these two team’s that you don’t know already. It’s a “repeat” from last year, only this time LeBron James has a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in the line-up. Love though has been a shell of his former self and for the most part (other than in Game 3), Irving has been a relative “no show” in the playoffs. The Warriors are the best in the league in making “game-to-game” adjustments and I look for Steve Kerr to throw a new look at the Cavs tonight. Note that Golden State is 11-3 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Cleveland is 18-23 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. | |||||||
06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs | Top | 90-120 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Golden State Warriors. Are the Cavs just going to “flip a switch” and suddenly start dominating after struggling in Game’s 1 and 2? It’s do or die essentially for the Cavs, but I can’t see how the team will be able to slow down Golden State’s relentless defensive attack and ability to hit the 3-pointer. And from an ATS stand point, they simply do not get much stronger than this, as Golden State is 22-7 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while Cleveland is just 5-11 ATS in the same position. I look for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to finally make an apperance and for the Warriors to take a firm strangle hold on this series. Play on Golden State. | |||||||
06-05-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 77-110 | Win | 100 | 57 h 22 m | Show |
10* APEX PREDATOR on Golden State Warriors. I played the Warriors in Game 1 and I think they’ll have another big night this evening as the Cavaliers are simply unable to protect the perimeter against the plethora of Golden State sharp shooters. Home floor advantage is going to once again be big. Note that Cleveland is a poor 5-10 ATS this year when playing with two days rest this season, while Golden State is 12-7 ATS in the same position. Play on the WARRIORS. | |||||||
06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Golden State Warriors. No one said that defending the NBA championship would be easy, but the Golden State Warriors are now back in the Finals after surviving the tough Western Conference. Golden State made it look pretty easy in the regular season though, amassing a league record 73 wins. Every single night Golden State always had to face each team’s “best,” as their opponents would routinely try to bring their “A” game in an attempt to knock off the champs. Granted the Cavaliers have had an “easier” time in the playoffs, but that is just testament to the fact the Eastern Conference is so much weaker than the West. Even with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving back in the line-up, the Cavs have no answer for Thompson and Curry from the outside, who I think will have a big game here. Home floor advantage will play a big role in the outcome of tonight’s game, lay the points. | |||||||
05-30-16 | Thunder +7 v. Warriors | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER on Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s all come down to this. OKC seemingly blew a golden chance to take care of the Warriors after dropping Game 6 at home, but I believe the visitors will at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Note that from an ATS stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this as the Thunder are a great 3-1 ATS this year when tied in a playoff series, while the Warriors are a poor 0-2 ATS in the same position. Look for Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to put pressure on the home side and while we wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, let’s grab the points. | |||||||
05-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Los Angeles Clippers stole home court advantage by winning game one despite playing without their leader Chris Paul. Blake Griffin stepped up big for the Clips and leads the team with 24.4 points and 13.3 rebound a game. J.J. Redick adds 14.1 points and has hit key shots for the Clippers. Jamal Crawford had a big game starting for the injured Paul in game one. DeAndre Jordan is pulling down 13.3 rebounds. The Los Angeles Clippers had an all-around great performance in their victory, as Austin Rivers and Redick combined for 34 points. If they can continue to get consistent play from their bench, they will be tough to beat. The Clippers have won 11 of their last 12 road games. Chris Paul is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Houston Rockets have not as bad a game as they did in game one, and it was not the time to do it. This is pretty much a must win game for them if they have any hope of winning the series. James Harden leads the Rockets averaging 27 points and 8.5 assists a game and Dwight Howard contributes 17.5 points and 13.2 rebounds. Josh Smith is grabbing 6.2 rebounds per contest. The Houston Rockets turned the ball over 24 times in game one and looked to not take the Clippers seriously. Look for Harden to be more aggressive in game two. The Rockets have won seven of their last nine home games. I look for the Rockets to come out more focused and to play with a little more urgency in game 2. I think Harden tries to establish himself early, taking it to the hoop and drawing fouls. LA stole the game they needed and I could see a bit of a letdown. Play on Houston. This is a (10*) play. | |||||||
06-15-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 87-104 | Win | 100 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB San Antonio Spurs. With a chance to dispatch the two-time defending champions on their home floor and to avenge last year’s Finals loss at the same time, I look for the Spurs to come out razor focused and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. I played San Antonio in Game 4, going against the Heat bounce back trend and was rewarded with a big time SU/ATS victory. I think the momentum that the Spurs have created is very real, the Heat simply don’t have an answer for their incredible overall depth and talent. Besides Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James, it’s hard to even think of another player on Miami that has been contributing. San Antonio has been getting production across the board, its “Big 3” have done their job, but it’s been the role players which have been the difference and I think will once again be a major factor this evening. Note that Miami is just 3-4 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while San Antonio is 5-3 ATS this season off an upset loss as an underdog. Expect the onslaught to continue, play on the SPURS. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs +5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 107-86 | Win | 100 | 38 h 35 m | Show |
10* ELITE LEVEL MVP CLUB San Antonio Spurs. It’s true that Miami has not lost back to back playoff games since 2012, but I think the Spurs can keep the pressure on the home side once again in Game 4 and look for them to at the very least sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points. When the Heat won Game 2, all eyes turned to Gregg Popovich and what adjustments he’d make when the series shifted to South Beach. After a historic first half, the Spurs would hold on for dear life in the second half and manage to gut out the victory. San Antonio exposed many Miami weaknesses, most specfically is that its role players are simply not getting the job done. The Spurs are too deep, and their players are too skilled for the Heat to contend with. "We finally put a game together for not the full 48, but for as long as we could, where we did exactly what we planned to do and executed in that respect," the Spurs’ veteran center Tim Duncan said last night, "and that's what we're going to need again." Note that San Antonio is 25-19 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more. And note that Miami is just 6-7 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season. With a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead, I think San Antonio dials up the pressure once again this evening. Grab as many points as you can Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILER Miami Heat. This is a great situational play, we’re getting fantastic line value here for a number of different reasons and while I do believe the outright win is definitely not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Miami had a shot to win Game 1, it had a 7-point lead with 5 minutes to play, and was within 2-points of the Spurs with 3 minutes left; LeBron James was so effected by the messed up air-conditioning though, that Miami simply ran out of gas in the closing moments, allowing its opponent to pull away down the stretch for the SU and ATS cover. But the fact of the matter is, Miami has not lost back-to-back games in the Playoffs since 2012 and I’m fully expecting James and the two-time defending Champions to come out fired up tonight and at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points they’ve been afforded. In my opinion, Miami’s late collapse can be entirely blamed on the air-conditioning and that’s something we know we won’t have to worry about tonight. Note that the Heat are 5-0 in series with James when they’ve dropped the opener, rebounding to win the second game SU each and every time. San Antonio looked far from being a World beater, it committed 23 turnovers that would lead to 28 Heat points. I look for history to repeat itself here and expect Miami to get its split; play on the HEAT. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-117 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Oklahoma City Thunder. The momentum has swung and I look for the “new look” Thunder to keep the pedal to the metal and while I do think the outright win is definitely not out of the question, I will in the end have to recommend grabbing the points in a game which will come down to the wire. They say history repeats itself, and that would certainly be an apt statement in pertaining to this series. In 2012 the Spurs took a 2-0 lead over the Thunder but would then go on to lose four straight. OKC would lose the first two games of this series by a combined 52 points, but coach Scott Brooks tweaked the line-ups and the Thunder are once again rolling. Of course, the return of big man Serge Ibaka (12 points, 7.5 boards and 3.5 blocks average in the two games) could not have come at a more opportune time. Russell Westbrook has also turned things around, he’s been pretty much unstoppable, making the elder Spurs look even older than they really are. Note that Westbrook had 40 points, 10 assists and five steals in Game 4. San Antonio shot at least 50 percent in the first two games, but has been held to under 40 percent over the last two. The Thunder are getting little respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion, Westbrook and Kevin Durant look as sharp and as confident as I’ve ever seen them play in their careers (remember, Durant is league MVP). With Ibaka back in the line-up, Westbrook and Durant are dominating, the pressure if off the supporting cast to play a bigger role; all cylinders are firing for the Thunder! Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -104 | 63 h 16 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Indiana Pacers. I like the Pacers to bounce back tonight and to at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them in Game 3. It’s true that Miami has won five straight at home in the Playoffs, but note that Indiana has won five straight on the road. I believe these two teams are very evenly matched and this spread is simply way too large The extra time off between games definitely benefits the Pacers who had several players struggling late in Game 2, including Paul George who was concussed in a collision with the Heat’s Dwayne Wade. Good news, George has fully been cleared to play tonight. "We played at a high level in the Washington series, and those last two against Atlanta when we were down in the series, we played with great desperation," Indiana coach Frank Vogel said yesterday. "Our guys take pride in their defense. That's probably why you see those numbers." So while the Heat are 35-7 at home in the playoffs since LeBron James came over, note that Indiana won at Miami in the postseason in both 2012 and 2013. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-18-14 | Miami Heat -1.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
10* MVP Club Miami Heat. I think the Pacers are a sexy dark horse pick, but ultimately believe that they’ll have their hands full in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. No need getting into the details of the history between these two clubs in the playoffs, it’s very well documented, Indiana has played Miami tough, but ultimately the Heat have prevailed in each of the last two season’s en route to the Championship Title. Indiana worked unbelievably hard to get home court advantage for the third re-match this year, but it’s been anything but for the beleagured Pacers thus far, going just 3-4 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, coughing up home-court advantage in Game 1 losses in each of the last two series. The Pacers have been the very definition of inconsistent since the All Star break, while the Heat have rolled so far in the Playoffs, losing just once over the first two rounds. Bad news for Indiana fans today, Miami’s Dwayne Wade, who was babied all year so that his knee would be fresh for the playoffs, is dominating as expected. Wade has played in all nine games and averaged just under 18 points, 4 assists and is shooting over 50% from the field. The Heat have played well enough defensively to beat the Pacers the last two seasons and I think that trend continues tonight; lay the short points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-15-14 | Indiana Pacers +4.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Indiana Pacers. Just when it looked like Indiana had finally turned a corner, it would promptly come out and lay an egg in Game 5’s setback. So which Pacers team is going to show up today, the good, the bad or the ugly? I think a little of all, but do expect that when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one that the beleagured visitors will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the handful of points they’ve been afforded here. With their collective backs against the wall, the Wizards came up with their best effort in the series, but let’s not forget how inept Washington has looked during most of it. I think Washington will have a letdown here, look for Indiana to play much more aggressively on the defensive end and to key on guard John Wall; it’s simple, stop Wall and you stop the Wizards’ “engine”. Washington would dominate the boards in Game 5, 62-23, that rebounding margin was tied for the third highest in league playoff history; suffice it to say, I don’t expect anything like that to happen again: “We should never get outrebounded by 40," said Pacers’ sharp shooter Paul George after the setback. "It was like their life was dependent on those rebounds." Home court has been anything but an advantage for the Wizards as well, as they’re 5-1 on the road and just 1-3 at the Verizon Center. The outright win is obviously not out of the question, this is a huge opportunity for Indiana to wrap this series up and get a bit of rest before taking on the Heat; that said, I feel a lot more comfortable grabbing these points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER San Antonio Spurs. No NBA team has ever overcome a 3-0 playoff deficit and I’m not expecting that to happen in this series. In fact, after the ‘Blazers took Game 4 at home, I look for the Spurs to return the favor and end it tonight. I took Portland in Game 4, but definitely feel it will get overwhelmed by a now determined and focused home side. San Antonio went on a massive run after being down 2-1 to Dallas, and Game 4 set up as a natural letdown spot for it. The same thing happened to the Heat in Game 3 of their series with the Nets, and we all know how Game 4 ended. In these types of contests, experience can’t be overlooked and with a win today, the veteran Spurs will reach the Western Conference finals for a third straight season. Conversely the Blazers made it to the second round for the first time in 14 years. At this point of the season, it’s pointless going into individual player match-ups, the strengths and weaknesses of each team are well known even to the most casual basketball fan. A great situational play, the far “better” team takes care of business in front of the home town crowd with a convincing effort. Lay the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-12-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM4 v. PORTLAND GM4 +4 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
10* 2ND RND GAME OF THE YEAR Portland Trailblazers The Spurs have rolled to three straight victories, but I think the home side gives them everything they can handle today and expect it to come away with at least the ATS cover. Just like Miami, San Antonio has been on quite the run of late; since Game 4 of its series vs. the Mavericks it’s been unstoppable, and certainly the Blazers have not had an answer to this point. However, just like Miami finally lost its focus in Game 3 of its Eastern Conference semi-finals matchup vs. the Nets, I believe the Spurs are going to finally have a letdown tonight and look for the desperate home side to take advantage. "Monday is a new game, and we are confident we are capable of winning," Blazers’ star Damien Lillard said yesterday. "It is also about our pride. We do not want to come out here and get swept. We still believe we can win a game -- we have to come out here and play like it." After beating the Houston Rockets in 7 games, the Blazers have never been in this series, but I simply can’t see this team getting swept by the Spurs, who looked very beatable in their opening round vs. the Mavericks. Portland and Dallas are similar in many respects. This will easily be the most competitive game so far in this series and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-12-14 | MIAMI GM4 -2.5 v. BROOKLYN GM4 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Miami Heat. I played Brooklyn in Game 3 but believe the two-time defending champions will come in focused and will find a way to deliver the goods at the end of the night. There’s no doubt that the Nets looked a lot better in Game 3, they were thoroughly thrashed in Games 1 and 2 and that was after they barely escaped with a 7-game series victory over Toronto. I said in my Game 3 analysis that I thought it set up as letdown spot for the Heat, who had rolled through their competition up to that point, sweeping the Bobcats in their opening round series. Brooklyn knew full well that no team in NBA Playoff history had ever come back to win a series after being down 3-1, it was a must-win game for a team which I’m comfortable in saying was underperforming up to that point. But here’s another number that we can’t ignore in Game 4: the Heat followed up every playoff loss with a victory in last year’s Championship run. Do you think that Miami has the savvy to bounce back following their first postseason setback this season? Obviously it does, the Heat have been through every type of situation imaginable over the last two years and this setback will only galvanize LeBron James and company. James is yet to have a signature game in this series, he’s primed to go and I look for The King to be a major factor in the final outcome of this contest. In what will prove to be a never in doubt laugher, I’m laying the short points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-10-14 | MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 +2 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Brooklyn Nets. I think that Brooklyn will at the very least keep this one close enough to cover with the handful of points it’s been afforded tonight. The Nets had a meltdown in Game 3 as they got to within two points of the Heat late in the fourth, only to stumble down the stretch, losing both SU and ATS in the final moments. Several players had their worst games of their entire playoff careers, including Brooklyn point guard Deron Williams who was 0 for 9; Kevin Garnett was just 2 of 8. "We need a win. It's a must-win," Williams said yesterday. "We can't afford to go down 3-0. We need to get these at home starting with the one on Saturday." The Heat certainly didn’t play spectacularly in Game 3, Brooklyn just soiled the sheets with a brutal effort. Suffice it to say, I think the veteran laden home side buckles down and puts together its best effort so far in this playoffs. Note that the Nets have actually done a great job in containing the Heat’s super star LeBron James, holding him to just a 22 point average thus far. No team in NBA history has battled back from a 3-0 deficit, Williams is right, this is a do-or-die game for the home side. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Play on Brooklyn. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-06-14 | Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Portland Trailblazers. Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs took the powerhouse Spurs to the brink and the bottom line is, I believe the Blazers are a much more dynamic and ultimately better team than Dallas was. As such, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in Game 1. If the Spurs thought swingman Dirk Nowitzki was a handful, just wait till they get acquainted with the Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge had a break out season, and he dominated in Portland’s opening round playoff victory over the Rockets, scoring 89 points over the first two games of the series and finishing with 29.8 points per game to go along with 11.7 boards and 2.7 blocks. I’m going to give the slight nod to Portland’s backcourt, as crazy as that sounds. The Spurs’ Tony Parker had a great Game 7 vs. Dallas, but did struggle at times throughout that series. The Blazers’ Damian Lillard on the other hand comes in filled with momentum and confidence, he dominated the Rockets including hitting the series clinching three-pointer at the buzzer. Lillard likely won’t guard parker, that’ll be for defensive specialists Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum. I was surprised by both clubs in their opening round series, but for entirely different reasons. I was surprised how well the Blazers played, how resilient and focused they were. And I was surprised by San Antonio’s susceptibility; the Spurs looked very beatable, both the offense and defense struggled throughout their opening round win over the Mavericks. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do think this game will come down to the wire and expect the Trailblazers to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe; play on Portland. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-04-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Toronto Raptors. I took the Nets in Game 6 but feel the Raptors are going to rally behind the boisterous home crowd and find a way to deliver the goods at the end of the afternoon. Toronto will be playing with the added motivation today in proving Brooklyn’s Andray Blatche incorrect, as Blatche has guarnateed a Nets victory in Game 7: "Who does he think he is?" Raptors’ guard Greivis Vasquez stated yesterday. "He's not KG or Paul Pierce or Jason Kidd. We're not going to listen to his nonsense." The noise at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto was unbelievably loud in Game 5: "It will definitely be crazy in here tomorrow," Toronto guard DeMar DeRozan said Saturday. "The energy us definitely going to be major tomorrow so that's something we can feed off." I think this is a golden opportunity for the Raptors, this is why home-court is so important in a 7-game series. Toronto definitely feels that the pressure is on the visitors today: "Yeah, man," DeRozan continued. "We ain't got no 100 million payroll or whatever they got. That's all on them. At the end of the day, they have more to lose than us." I believe the strain of this seven game series finally catches up to the venerable Nets and the younger and hungrier home side pulls away down the stretch for the cover; lay the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-03-14 | Atlanta Hawks +5.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 26 m | Show |
10* PLAYOFF PAYOFF Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta let one slip away in Game 6, it had a four point lead late in the fourth quarter but was unable to hit shots down the stretch. I think the Hawks keep this one interesting and at the very least, cover with what I believe is an ample spread. I am a situational handicapper and I think all of the pressure is clearly on the inconsistent No. 1 seed. Atlanta won’t be intimidated, in three of the last four it’s played in Indianapolis it has built 20 point leads and beaten the Pacers pretty handily: “We've responded well all year when we've been in difficult situations," Hawks’ coach Mike Budenholzer said last night. "Part of our response is going to have to be better execution. I think we have a lot of positive reference points from all year. Our group has been very good and very resilient. I have a lot of confidence in our group." "We've won on that floor before, so we know we can do it," Hawks’ sharp-shooter Teague added. "We just have to go out there and do what we do and play our style of basketball, and it will take care of itself." The weight of the World is on the Pacers shoulders, a loss will be a monumental blow for the No. 1 seed. Conversely, Atlanta has nothing to lose here, it can play loose and with confidence; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’m going to grab as many points as I can. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-02-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -4.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Brooklyn Nets. When the dust settles at the end of this one, I think we’ll be heading to Canada for a Game 7. Brooklyn has looked fantastic at times and pretty poor in others during this series, but I think the veteran leadership pays off tonight. The Nets come in with plenty of momentum, Toronto had a 26-point lead going into the final quarter in Game 5, but Brooklyn would go on to score 44, only to lose by just two points in the end. Brooklyn coach Jason Kidd knows that his team needs to play that type of emotion for the entire game: "We've got to start the game off that way," Kidd said. "We've got to be in attack mode for 48 minutes." This has been a very competitive series, games mostly being decided in the closing moments, and I’m sure that will once again be the case today. I am a situational handicapper, and in this case, I think the home side has a very real motivational factor and I expect it to make the most of it. I think Brooklyn will finally control the tempo from start to finish and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the cover. Lay the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
05-01-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Oklahoma City Thunder. Memphis so far has done a good job in slowing down Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Neither team has looked great in my opinion in this series, certainly the Thunder are underachieving. Four of the five games have gone to overtime, OKC could just as easily have the 3-2 lead at this point if a couple of extra bounces had gone its way. Durant is doing his job, he’s averaging 28 points per game. Westbrook has been ineffecient, but he’s still contributing significantly as well. OKC is clearly a better team when its supporting cast plays well, but for the most part that’s not been the case yet. "The great ones just continue to focus on the next game," OKC coach Scott Brooks said of his super star player. "He's a great one. He's one of the greatest players in the world. He has to be able to continue to step up and take those shots, and he will. I have the utmost respect for his game." Brooks has reminded his team about its Game 4 win which took back home-court advantage: "We have a great opportunity to go in there and give ourselves a chance to win," Brooks assessed. "We've done that in every game in this series." It’s do or die time for the team which had the second best record in the league; I think Durant and company answer the bell with their best effort so far in this series. I’m laying the short points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-30-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -3 | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
10* BLOWOUT Toronto Raptors. Toronto is favored in this game and was favored to win the series before it began. However, the Raptors feel that the media has treated them like the underdogs, and that suits them just fine: "It's not going to be all smiles and bubble gum and fruitcakes tomorrow night, it's going to be a street fight," Toronto coach Dwayne Casey said recently. "And that's the way we've got to come out, with that mentality." One player to keep your eyes on today is the Raptors’ DeMar DeRozan who has averaged 28 points after a sub-par playoff debut. Toronto has covered in Games 2, 3 and 4 because of a big fourth quarter effort, and as we get deeper into this playoff series, the scheduling starts to favor the younger home side more and more. The Raptors have focused their defensive attention onto Nets’ point guard Deron Williams and he’d go on to score a series-low 10 points in Sunday’s loss. Brooklyn is great in forcing turnovers, but Toronto looked much better in Game 4 by finishing with just 12; conversely, the Nets’ six steals and 16 turnovers were both series worsts for them. Who are we kidding? This is going to be another nailbiter, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked and expect the home side to pull away down the stretch; lay the short points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-26-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Memphis Grizzlies. I played the Grizzlies in Games 2 and 3 and I’m expecting them to once again control and dictate the pace of this contest and to deliver the goods in Game 4. While both Thunder stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook each scored 30 points, they had another overall poor outing in Game 3; combined they were just 19 of 53 for the majority of the 87 total shots that OKC took. Note that they were a brutal 4 of 21 from behind the 3-point line as well. However it’s not just been the super stars struggling as the Thunder’s role players have also been almost non-existent in this series, the team has collectively been held to 40 percent shooting in back-to-back games. The Grizzlies come in confident, they’ve now won four of the last six playoff games vs. Oklahoma City, including four straight in front of the home town crowd. Memphis has been a “different” team since the return of big man Marc Gasol in January; note that the Grizzlies went 10-4 in games decided by three points or less as one of only four clubs with double-digit wins in one-possession contests. With a chance to drive the second to last nail in the coffin for the over-rated Thunder, expect the Grizzlies to continue their onslaught; grab the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-25-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets -5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Brooklyn Nets. I was on Brooklyn in Game 1 and got the victory. I took the Nets again in Game 2 and came up 1-bucket short. Brooklyn was nearly unbeatable at home down the stretch of the regular season and I like this veteran laden team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. As if they needed any more incentive than simply playing in the first round of the playoffs, but after Toronto GM Masai Ujiri ended some comments with an explitive about the city of Brooklyn after a rally before Game 1, the Nets and their crowd will be out with something to prove this evening "Very, very eager to see how they respond to the `F Brooklyn," veteran Brooklyn center Kevin Garnett said last night. "Very, very eager to see how they respond to this kid." The Nets would win 15 straight games at home before dropping their final two after they had already clinched a spot. Toronto was decent on the road this year but it’s lost 12 straight in the playoffs away from friendly confines since beating Philadelphia in Game 1 of the 2001 Eastern Conference semifinals. The strengths and weaknesses of each side is well know; I think this is a must win game for the elder Nets, who can’t possibly get into a track meet or extended series if they hope to advance to the next round. I’m laying the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-24-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 39 h 29 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Memphis Grizzlies. Oklahoma City looked fantastic through the first half of Game 1 but was lucky to hold on for the 100-89, the Grizzlies rallying furious in the third quarter, but eventually running out of gas. Memphis continued its tough play in Game 2 (I had the Grizzlies in that one), and with the shift in venue, playing in front of the home town faithful, I once again look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. It’s true that the Thunder went 25-16 on the road this year, but OKC has had difficulties in Memphis, the Grizzlies took both match-ups there in last year’s semifinals on the way to clinching the series in five games. Grizzlies guard Tony Allen knows his team can’t get ahead of itself: "We got to understand it's one game at a time," Allen said yesterday. "It's the playoffs. Each game counts. Each possession counts. We can't get caught up in that." "Our team is a team that can't play too far from behind because we play a certain style of basketball, and it's tough," Memphis forward Mike Miller continued. "Our starts are big for us. They do have some pressure. They have some expectations." I like the Grizzlies to pour on the defensive pressure even more in Game 3, and to continue to work the ball down low to its big men; a slower pace obviously favors Memphis and I’m fully expecting the home side to once again direct the action on the floor. Grab the short points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-23-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Miami Heat -10 | Top | 97-101 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Miami Heat.
Charlotte is in trouble. Despite a somewhat lacklustre effort from Miami, it was unable to even cover the spread with the 10.5 points it was afforded in Game 1.
Now the Bobcats will likely be without the services of big man Al Jefferson, which is huge. Jefferson got injured in the first quarter and was never the same after that. If Jefferson plays, I simply can’t see him being very effective whatsoever.
Jefferson was limping noticeably throughout and actually had to get two injections during the game to keep going; he’s been in a walking boot ever since and hasn’t practiced at all.
The Heat’s Big 3 are in tact, just a minor injury to guard Mario Chalmers, which isn’t anything for the two-time defending champions (or us), to worry about.
Besides, whether Jefferson plays or not matters little to the Heat: "It doesn't change what we're doing," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said yesterday. "You hope that everybody's healthy. He was able to establish a big low-point presence in the first half. He'll still be able to do that if he's in the game."
A huge bonus for Heat fans was the superb play of the oft-injured Dwayne Wade; Wade made 10 of 16 for 23 points and showed no ill effects aftewards.
One other player to keep your eyes on is Miami’s James Jones, who came off the bench in Game 1 to contribute considerably.
No need to delve too deeply into this analysis; the Heat have a chance to take a commanding lead vs. an inferior and wounded opponent and I expect them to be fully up to the task; lay the points.
Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-13-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Lakers +12 | Top | 102-90 | Push | 0 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB LA Lakers. Memphis is coming off back to back big victories to keep its playoff hopes alive. However, I think this sets up as a trap game for the Grizzlies who will not be able to help themselves in looking ahead to their game in Phoenix tomorrow night. Memphis most recently beat Miami 107-102 on Wednesday before then smashing Philadelphia 117-95 on Friday. How can the Grizzlies not be looking ahead to tomorrow’s game? Memphis and Phoenix are battling for the final playoff spot in the West after the Mavs clinched a berth in a 101-98 win over the Suns Saturday. The Grizzlies will end their season with a game at home vs. Dallas on Wednesday. This Memphis team has been a bit of a “Jekyll and Hyde” club, as it’s been dominant at home, but a letdown on the road this season. The Grizzlies come into this contest having lost four of their last five on the road, a span in which they’ve scored 93 points or less while allowing over 102. LA plays with revenge of course as Memphis has won five of the last seven, inclding two of three this year. With the single-season franchise record for lossess behind it, LA can simply worry about closing out the year with some positives: "Just do the little stuff," LA guard Jodie Meeks said of today’s competition. "Can't fall asleep on defense. We have to take good shots and execute our offense a little bit better if we want to have a chance. All we can do is keep playing," Meeks finished. "Nobody in this locker room is giving up." It’s interesting to note that Memphis is just 13-21 ATS this year vs. clubs with losing records. And note that LA is 4-3 ATS as a home dog in the in the 9.5 to 12 points range, and 24-22 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. A great situational play, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-11-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Utah Jazz +8 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Utah Jazz. I was on Portland two days ago. I don’t normally play against a team right after I’ve played on it, but in this case, I think this is a great situational selection and simply too many points to be giving up to the home side. This sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Portland as it travels to Utah for its final road game of the year to face the lowly Jazz. The Blazers have been winning and still are pushing for home court advantage in the first round, but they’ve not been playing spectacularly or anything. Portland got by New Orleans 100-94 on Sunday, and then laid that egg, very lucky to escape with the 100-99 win over the Kings on Wednesday. Portland showed some definite “holes in the armor” as it was outrebounded 14-5 on the offensive glass and would surrender 23 points off a ghastly 18 turnovers. Utah plays with triple revenge here as it tries to stave off the season sweep (note that the Blazers have never swept Utah in franchise history). The Jazz are playing out the stretch, most recently they are coming off a 95-83 loss to Dallas: "You just have to stay with it," Utah’s rookie point guard Trey Burke assessed after the setback. "The adversity that we're facing right now as a team, it's only going to make us stronger in the future. We have to be patient with that, just continue to fight out there, continue to play hard." There were a couple of silver linings in the setback as Enes Kanter would contribute 15 points and a season-high 19 boards; note that the Jazz also held a whopping 23-6 edge on the offensive glass (they also outscored Dallas 52-34 in the paint). Note that Portland is just 27-28 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite. And note that Utah is 9-5 ATS this season after scoring 85 points or less. Being adaptable and flexible with one’s handicapping approach is essential in my opinion; this one sets up nicely for the home side. Grab the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
04-09-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Portland Trail Blazers -12.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Portland Trailblazers. While the Blazers have secured a playoff spot, they still have an outside shot at home-court advantage in the first round and as such, I look for the home side to come out fired up tonight. There are four games remaining and Portland has a 2.5 game lead over the No. 4 seed, meaning that there really is no room to take the foot off the gas pedal. Most recently the ‘Blazers are coming off a 100-94 win over New Orleans on Sunday: "Fifty wins is always a big honor in this league," said Portland’s center LaMarcus Aldridge; the big man led the team with 25 points and 18 boards in that one. "Especially being in the West with so many good teams. It's definitely not something to take for granted. Guys are happy about it and we're definitely happy to be locked into the playoffs." Portland has been a “different” team with Aldridge in the lineup, they’ve won five of six and has put itself back in the race for the No. 4 seed. The Blazers outrebounded the Pelicans 50-38 and limited them to just 42.2 percent shooting, the percentage they’ve held opponents to in their last six outings. Portland has extra incentive here as well as it looks to avoid having to split the four-game series with Sacramento after it fell 123-119 to the Kings back on January 7th. Sacramento is stumbling to the finish line, it’s lost eight of ten on the road, including three straight overall after a 107-92 setback to OKC on Tuesday. Note that Sacramento is a poor 22-25 ATS in its last 47 vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest. And note that Portland is 20-14 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 24-15 ATS vs. teams with losing records. All signs point to a blowout victory in front of the home town crowd; lay the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
03-19-14 | Utah Jazz +11.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Utah Jazz. The Grizzlies return home after a successful road trip, but with a game at the defending champs up next, I feel tonight | |||||||
03-14-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Philadelphia 76ers +16 | Top | 101-94 | Win | 102 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Philadelphia 76ers. Emotions will be running high, especially for the visiting team as Andrew Bynum and Evan Turner return to Philadelphia. Indiana broke its losing streak with a 94-83 win over Boston last time out, but was unable to cover the spread. The Pacers have lost eight in a row Against The Spread and I think will come up short once again here as the home side desperately tries to avoid losing a 19th straight. Note that Indiana is likely to be without the services of Mahinmi and CJ Watson to injury; that | |||||||
03-07-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks -3 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Dallas Mavericks. Portland has struggled against | |||||||
03-04-14 | Golden State Warriors +5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR Golden State Warriors. The Pacers have won five straight. They also beat the Warriors 102-94 in Golden State back on January 14th. Let | |||||||
02-22-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Golden State Warriors -6 | Top | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
10* | |||||||
02-19-14 | Chicago Bulls +2.5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
Parsons | |||||||
02-04-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Phoenix Suns -7 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
10* "BOOKIEKILLER" Phoenix Suns. This is a "revenge" situation for Phoenix which fell 92-87 in Chicago as a 2-point favorite back on January 7th. The Bulls continue to struggle for the most part and especially on the road, now off back to back losing efforts away from friendly confines including last night's listless 99-70 setback in Sacramento. The Suns haven't played since Saturday when they won 105-95 over Charlotte. It was the team's fifth straight victory. Note that Chicago is 6-11 ATS in non-conference games this year and only 8-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. And note that Phoenix is 12-4 ATS in non-conference contests this year and 14-8 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. With a tough game tomorrow night in Houston, I look for the home side to make the most of this situation, to avenge the earlier loss to the tired Bulls and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; lay the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-27-14 | Atlanta Hawks +10 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Atlanta Hawks. A great situational play here. Atlanta has been shuffling of late, a good go against the last couple of weeks. While the Hawks did win and cover at Milwaukee on Saturday, they're just 2-4 ATS overall their last six. Atlanta will look to break out of this sluggish patch against an opponent which beat it handily both SU and ATS on its own floor, 101-92 back on December 10th. This definitely sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the Thunder. They've won seven straight, both SU and ATS, returning home after a perfect 3-game road stretch which included a victory over the Spurs; it's also a classic "look ahead" spot for the home side with a game in Miami on Wednesday night. Note that Atlanta is 13-11 ATS as an underdog this year. It's also 7-2 ATS this season after a win by 10 points or more; and this is important, the Hawks have shown a strong penchant in keeping up their intensity and focus after a large victory. Also note that Atlanta is 10-6 ATS in non-conference games and 5-4 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And note that OKC is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range this season; also just 1-2 ATS after playing three or more consecutive road games. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the visitors as the prudent wager in this matchup; grab the points! Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-23-14 | Denver Nuggets +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER Denver Nuggets. This is a legitimate "revenge" situation for the visitors after they fell 113-98 to the Blazers in front of the home town crowd back on November 1st. It's also a great "situational" play as Portland is coming off back-to-back losses to end a four-game road trip. I actually played against the Blazers in their last game, a 105-97 setback to Oklahoma City, a game in which they lead for almost the entire game, letting it slip away in the final minutes, losing both SU and ATS. The way in which Portland lost that game was tough psychologically and I believe sets tonight's contest up as a classic "let down" spot. Also note, in the loss to the Blazers earlier in the year the Nuggets would shoot just 36.4 percent from the floor, their second-worst shooting performance of the entire season. Denver will be playing with "desperation" as well as it's dropped three of four, including two straight. Note that Denver is 10-9 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And note that Portland is just 2-3 ATS as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 9 points range and only 1-4 ATS after playing three (or more) consecutive road games. With three whole days off to prepare for this game, to regroup and refocus, I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; the situation, the numbers and the trends do indeed all point to Denver as the prudent wager in this particular match-up. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-22-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL PUNISHER Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee plays with the triple-revenge factor tonight. I won't try to convince you that the Bucks are a good team. They're not. However, this is a good spot for them to at least pick up the comfortable ATS cover. Detroit has been hit or miss all year and once again took a step back in a 112-103 loss to the Clippers on Monday. Ex-Buck Brandon Jennings was held scoreless for the second time in his career, 0 of 7 from the floor. Milwaukee looks to take advantage of a team that allowed LA to shoot 55.6 percent while also getting outrebounded 44-30, which included 15-8 on the offensive glass. The Bucks will be playing with desperation tonight as they've still not won a game SU in 2014 (in fact Milwaukee has just two wins it it last 19). Note that Detroit is just 8-10 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and interestingly only 8-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. And note that despite all of its struggles both SU and ATS, Milwaukee has responded well in this position this season, 9-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more (were destroyed in San Antonio last time out). While I wouldn't be surprised to see Milwaukee win outright tonight, I'll recommend grabbing the points as there is no question in my mind that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the home side as the prudent wager in this particular match-up. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-21-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
10* MVP Club Oklahoma City Thunder. Here is a fantastic situational play. Portland has without question been one of the best and most consistent teams in the league this year, but this is a horrible spot for it. The 'Blazers play a tough one in Houston on Monday night, then transition 24 hours later to play a Thunder team which is 18-3 at home, which has won three straight and which is playing with the very legitimate "double revenge factor" after already losing twice to Portland this year, both SU and ATS. And as good at the Trailblazers have played this year, note that Portland has in fact struggled in this spot all season, just 9-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per contest. And conversely, note that Oklahoma City has consistently been at its best in this spot, 16-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per contest (also note that the Thunder are 3-2 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent). Whether Portland wins or loses on Monday night matters not for me in making this selection; the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the home side as the prudent wager in this matchup. Lay the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-17-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
10* BOOKIEKILLER San Antonio Spurs. This is a tough spot for the Blazers. One of the best teams in the league will hit the road to play four games in five days. Their first stop is in San Antonio vs. the red hot Spurs who will be out to avenge an earlier loss as well. On the horizon for upstart Portland is Dallas, Houston and then Oklahoma City on Tuesday. The Blazers have in fact taken 12 of the last 16 in this series, including the aforementioned 115-105 victory at home back on November 2nd. The last time Portland was in San Antonio it did some serious damage too, winning 136-106 on March 8th, marking the Spurs worst loss last season. San Antonio though comes in with momentum, off a 109-105 win over the Jazz on Wednesday, the teams ninth win in its last ten games. In total the Spurs are hitting 54.7 percent of their shots during a four-game win skein. Note that Portland is just 6-10 ATS this season after a non-conference game and only 7-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest. And note that San Antonio is 8-2 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more and 11-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. The strong motivational factors are the difference for me in this contest; I'm laying the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-15-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Boston Celtics +4 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
0* "BOOKIEKILLER" Boston Celtics. Toronto is coming off a 116-94 win over Milwaukee on Monday, its third straight victory. Boston is coming off a 104-92 loss to Houston, it's ninth straight setback. This is a revenge game for Boston after it fell 93-87 in Toronto back on November 30th. This is a great situational play; Toronto has won ten-straight ATS overall and five-straight ATS on the road; suffice it to say, I believe the underachieving home side finally breaks this string of success. Note that Toronto is 0-2 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games. And note that Boston is 7-6 ATS this year after three or more consecutive losses. No need to overanalyze this one; the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the home side as the prudent wager in this match-up; grab the points. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-13-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL PUNISHER New Orleans Pelicans. Here is a great "situational" play. As a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups are not a part of my handicapping process whatsoever, unless of course it's a player like LeBron James, or Peyton Manning etc. In this case, the Pelicans will catch a tired Spurs team off guard, San Antonio having played a game at home vs. Minnesota on Sunday night. Note that San Antonio is interestingly just 37-46 ATS over the last two seasons vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. And note that New Orleans 4-1 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses and 9-6 ATS after allowing 105 points or more (New Orleans will be extra motivated here having lost five straight including a frustrating 110-107 setback at Dallas on Saturday). This is also a revenge situation for the home side which was spanked 112-93 in San Antonio back on November 25th. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the home side as the prudent wager in this match-up. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-09-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets +3 | Top | 88-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB Denver Nuggets. The Thunder are struggling without Russell Westbrook losing three of their last five. OKC has beaten the Nuggets twice already this year but is not in the best of spots here playing for the fifth time in seven nights. The Nuggets have righted the ship after eight straight losses by winning their last three, the last two by 31 and 22 points. The Thunder are tons better than the Lakers and Celtics but are short-handed (Ibaka also a big question mark), leg weary and facing a team with revenge in mind as much as that plays out in the pros. Take the home dog Nuggets. Good Luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-07-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL BOOKIEKILLER Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz have definitely struggled without Marc Gasol but have slowly but surely started to right the ship winning five of their last eight. Memphis has started to shoot the ball much better (48% from the field L5) which has led to 106 ppg, a huge improve on the 95.7 ppg. that they average on the year. The next step is to defend their home floor against division opponents like the aged Spurs who travel here before playing two tough homies against the Mavs and Wolves. In a game that could go down to the final possession, and with the Grizz in a same year double-revenge spot, grab the points. Good Luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-04-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
10* MVP CLUB San Antonio Spurs. You probably wont't find a better spot for San Antonio than in tonight's matchup with the Clippers. The Spurs are off a bad home loss to the Knicks but are a resilient 5-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite. The Clippers have been great on the road this year vs the points but start a 3-5 week stretch without Chris Paul who separated his shoulder in last. Pop won't let this opportunity get away this key conference matchup. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |