Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 49.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Nick Parsons' analysis will be available at least six hours before kickoff! | |||||||
10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 51.5 | 21-35 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
The Denver Broncos will try to stay on top of the AFC West when they take on the San Diego Chargers Thursday night. In the last three meetings against these two teams has gone under the total. The Charger’s will try and keep the ball out of Manning’s hands with a ball control offense. In both of last year’s games the Chargers were able to hold the ball on offense for 38 or more minutes. This resulted in the total going under by 10 and 13.5 points. The Bronco’s and Charger’s come in with defenses that are both ranked in the top ten in overall defense. The Chargers are ranked third giving up only 316 yards a game and their 16.3 points ranks third in the league. The Bronco’s defense ranks 6th while allowing 316 yards a game. Play on the Under! | |||||||
10-19-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Chicago Bears OVER 48 | 27-14 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bears look to avoid going 0-3 at Soldier Field for the first time in 10 years Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. Chicago is 3-3 this season, avoided a third straight defeat and improved to 3-1 away from home with a 27-13 win at Atlanta last Sunday. Jay Cutler threw for 381 yards, Matt Forte recorded 157 total yards and two rushing scores and a banged-up defense held the Falcons to 287 yards and one TD. The Bears average 26.5 points and have a plus-6 turnover margin on the road, but have totaled 37 points and are a minus-4 in that department in home defeats to Buffalo and Green Bay. They haven't dropped their first three at Soldier Field since 2004. Cutler has thrown nine touchdowns, two interceptions and has a 104.6 passer rating on the road. But struggles at home with just four touchdowns and a rating of 84.7. He is worse after halftime throwing three interceptions and has a quarterback rating of 58.1 touchdowns Forte, meanwhile, enters Week 7 leading the NFL in receptions (46) and is seventh in rushing yards (399). He's averaged 164.7 total yards in the last three games. The Dolphins are 2-3 and rank eighth in the league against the pass allowing an average of 221.6 yards. Starting running back Knowshon Moreno suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. Moreno, who played in only three games, gained all but 14 of his 148 rushing yards in a season-opening 33-20 win over New England. Lamar Miller, the team leader with 330 rushing yards, is expected to get the bulk of the work. Miami ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing with 136 yards a game and third in yards per carry at 4.97 but faces a Chicago defense that's allowed 188 and 3.24 per attempt in the last three contests. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is 0-4 in career road games against NFC foes and his 2014 numbers in completion percentage and passer rating) are in the bottom half among the league's starters. "We have every piece we need to put this puzzle together‚" he said. "Now it's a matter of doing it." Still‚ the Bears have scored eight fewer points at home than on the road‚ and their plus-6 turnover I think the Bears will be able to move the ball behind Forte and their outside weapons. I feel they will turn things around at home this week against the Dolphins. They Dolphins will be able to get their points in this game against the Bears, so I am playing this game over the total. | |||||||
10-19-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Washington Redskins OVER 45.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
The Kirk Cousins experiment hasn’t worked out like a lot of people hoped for. He look brilliant at times and look like a high school quarterback at others. Last week Cousins completed 24-of-38 passes for 354 yards with two touchdowns but threw three late interceptions. He has four career 300-yard passing games‚ including two this season‚ and four multi-touchdown games since taking over for RG3. He also leads the league with eight interceptions. Washington is last in the NFC East and have lost four in a row. Tennessee was able to halt a four- The Redskins have struggled running the football this season. They are 23rd with just 99.3 yards per game‚ a far cry from last season. In 2013‚ Alfred Morris and the Redskins were fifth in rushing with 135.2 yards per game. The will hope to get the running game going against a Titan team that allowed an average of 154.3 rushing yards during a four-game skid t Washington has committed 10 of its 13 giveaways in the last three games, and its minus-9 turnover margin is tied for worst in the league entering Week 7. It would seem to be an easy mistake to make. The Redskins have dropped 13 of 14 and allowed an average of 34.8 points in four games since a 41-10 victory over winless Jacksonville on Sept. 14. Tennessee recorded 290 total yards, converted three of 11 third downs and needed three Ryan Succop field goals. Sammie Hill blocked Josh Scobee's 55-yard field-goal attempt with 12 seconds left to preserve the victory. Quarterback Jake Locker ranks near the bottom of the league in completion percentage at 58 and passer rating with 75, 9, while throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions in four games this season. His status for Sunday in uncertain. Backup Charlie Whitehurst has completed 58.3 percent of his passes, but has thrown three TDs and one INT in three contests. Tennessee has two dangerous pass catchers in tight end Delanie Walker and wide receiver Kendall Wright. Walker leads the team with 29 catches for 421 yards and is tied with Wright with three TD receptions. Wright has 26 catches. They could have big days as the redskins secondary is pretty banged up. They are facing a beat-up secondary and should be in for a good day. Washington has been able to move the ball behind the Cousins. The defense has also shown the ability to give up points also. I see this being a high scoring game with The Redskins putting up big numbers and Tennessee scoring big too. I see this game flying over the total. | |||||||
10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins OVER 48.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 53 m | Show | |
Two weeks ago Green bay Quarterback Aaron Rodgers told the Packers fans to relax. Since then the packers have been able to get both the passing and running game going and have one two straight. Last week Rodgers threw for three TDs in a 42-10 victory over Minnesota. He finished with 156 passing yards completing 12 of 17 passes. There were also able to get their running game up to speed with Eddie Lacy getting a season-high 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries for the Packers. The improvement of the running game allows wide receiver more freedom to work and get deep into the secondary. Dolphin’s quarterback Ryan Tannehill status as team starter has been questioned. He 14 straight passes against Oakland at one point. He finished the game connecting on 23 of 31 passes for 278 yards two touchdowns and one interception. Lamar Miller ran for 64 yards with two touchdowns. They will also be getting back Knowshon Moreno to help the rushing attack. They could be looking for a big game as the Packers are the league’s worst at stopping the run‚ allowing 163.0 yards a game. I see Rodgers and lacy having a big game and this being a high scoring game. I like the Packers to score at least 28 points and I see the Dolphins being able to put up enough points to make this game go over the total. Play on the Over. | |||||||
10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans OVER 46.5 | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
The Indianapolis Colts started out the season losing their first two games. Unlike some people who were talking their demise, I knew they were two good to let it down slide to continue. They proved me right so far, winning their next three games. I see them stretching it to for straight wins when the face a Houston team they have dominated. In the past. The Colts have won three consecutive games in the rivalry and compiled a 20-4 overall record against Houston. They also seemed to excel in short weeks winning nine straight when playing on Thursday. They are 11-1-1 overall playing on Thursday. The Colts have outscored their last three opponents 105-47. The Colts offense is second overall in the NFL with 439.6 yards a game and tops in passing offense (321.8 YPG). Luck leads the NFL with 1‚617 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. The Colts defense has shown an improvement as the year has gone on. They had allowed 409.5 yards per game in the first two games of the season‚ but have reduced that two 297.3 per game since. The unit mustered just one sack and one turnover in the first two and had generated 11 sacks and nine takeaways during its three-game run. The Texans started the season 2-0 but have dropped two of their last three. Their last loss came last week in overtime to their rivals the Dallas Cowboys The Texans defense allows 385 yards in offense and 250 plus through the air. Indianapolis has never lost on NFL Network's "Thursday Night Football‚" posting a 7-0 record dating back to 2007 with six of those seven wins coming on the road and I see that streak continuing tonight. Luck will be able to pass on the Texans and see another high scoring prime time game Play on the Over | |||||||
10-05-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Detroit Lions OVER 43 | 17-14 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
I think the total in this game has everybody. The stats and trends show this game as an under, but as it has often been quoted “There are lies, dam lies and statistics”. In this game I think the statistics lie. I know there is talk that Calvin Johnson might not play, but the Lions still have the offensive weapons to explode. Golden Tate, Reggie Bush and rookie tight end Ebron are capable of making big plays if Johnson is absent. I know Buffalo comes in with the 27th ranked offense, but a new starting quarterback could give them a needed shot in the arm. It’s not like the buffalo offense is bereft of weapons. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson give them a good 1-2 punch in the backfield and rookie wide receiver Sammie Watkins has shown that he is capable of making big plays. I think Buffalo will be able to score some points on the Lions defense and this will easily put the total over. Nick “The Bookie Killer” Parsons | |||||||
09-28-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 41 | 38-14 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Either both teams’ offenses are going to break out and have an offensive explosion or if they stay to form, the English will feel right at home at a soccer match The Dolphins offense had been lackluster and the Raiders offense has been offensive. The Raiders hope to avoid going 0-4 and their 10th straight defeat. Miami’s quarterback, at least for now, Ryan Tannehill is last among starters with 5.03 yards per attempt. He 74.1 quarterback rating is one of the lowest in the league. That goes along with his low completion percentage of 56.5. He hasn’t had a 250 yards game and only one pass completion over 25 yards. The Dolphins have scored 25 points and two touchdowns since their opening weak 33-20 win over New England. Oakland is averaging a league-low 12.3 points and 254.3 yards with Derek Carr at quarterback. The rookie has only a slightly better passer rating than Tannehill at 74.9 and is also just ahead of him in yards per attempt at 5.44. The Raiders, looked a lot better last week, even though they lost 16-9 at New England. The Raiders yielded 76 rushing yards after allowing a combined 400 in losses to the New York Jets and Houston, but the team gained 67 on the ground and has totaled 193, just ahead of Chicago's league-low 192. I don’t see either of these two teams changing their ways quickly. If either team is too break out I would think it would be the Raiders, as the Raiders’ defense looked good against New England. I look for a very low scoring game and it going under the total. Play on the Under. | |||||||
09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears OVER 51 | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a battle of two teams trying to find their offense and their defenses. Both teams have struggles to run the ball and both teams have allowed a lot of yards on defense. Both teams will look to get their anemic running games going against defenses that are prone to the run. Green bay allows 156 yards on the ground and 355 yards in total offense. The Bears allow 378 yards of total offense, with 145 of that coming on the ground. The Bears will be going for their third straight victory and first at home, when they take on their arch rivals the Green Bay Packers. The Bears haven't opened with back-to-back home defeats since a 0-3 start in 2004. Their last set of consecutive losses at Soldier Field came at the end of 2012. The Packers come in at 1-2 and didn’t look very good in a 19-7 loss to the Detroit Lions last week. The Packers hope to get Rodgers and the offense back on track when they face a Bear’s defense that has a ton of injuries. Rodgers has averaged 282.0 yards while totaling 14 TDs and four interceptions in his last five full games against Chicago. Last year. Lacy had 216 yards in last season's two matchups, including 150 in the loss. Matt Forte topped 100 yards in both meetings last season, totaling 235, and added nine catches for 101 yards. The Bears have lost seven of eight to the Packers. Rodgers is 10-2 against the Bears‚ winning seven straight when he starts and finishes‚ including a Week 17 win over Chicago last season which sent the Pack to the postseason and the Bears into hibernation. These two teams play very entertaining games that are often high scoring. I think that the Packers offense gets healthy and back on track against the Bears injured defense. I see lacy going over 100 yards on the ground, giving Rodgers the opportunity to get going passing the ball. The Bears will have chance to score against a Packers defense that has been suspect. I see both teams scoring a lot in this game and it coming down to the last possession. Play on the Over | |||||||
09-14-14 | Detroit Lions v. Carolina Panthers OVER 43.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
I am playing on the OVER Cam Newton is back for Carolina, but I am not sure that it is a god thing. His replacement looked awesome in his start last week. Derek Anderson completed 24-of-34 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns. In Newton’s career game against the Lions, he threw four interceptions in a 49-35 loss Nov. 20, 2011. The Panthers defense were able to force three takeaways and will need to do the same this week against Detroit. Detroit looked get on D against the Giants, but again, it was the Giants. In the Lions 35-14 home win, they limited the Giants to just 197 yards of total offense. They also had a plus 2 turnover margin. Matthew Stafford and top target Calvin Johnson were in sync as Stafford hit Johnson for two scores in the first quarter. Johnson had seven catches for 164 yards in the game. Stafford went 22 of 32 for 346 yards and two TDs. The team will need to improve their running game against the Panthers to keep pressure off of Stafford. Detroit will score and that is a given. The main question is what D shows up for Detroit and how effective will Newton be. Their last game was a shootout and I don’t see that changing this week. The defensive secondary of the Lions has always been suspect and they lost another member of the secondary last week. Expect Detroit to attack Carolina's secondary early and often to put the Panthers behind the eight-ball early on. I am playing on the OVER. | |||||||
09-07-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41 | 27-30 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 24 m | Show | |
Play on the Under: The Pittsburg Steelers looking to break out of a two slump of making the playoffs by taking on an old rival in the Cleveland Browns. They will be looking for their eleventh home win against the Browns, their current streak is tied for the sixth longest active home winning streak against an opponent. Pittsburgh has not missed the postseason in three straight years since 1998-2000. The Browns will be under a new head coach Mile Pettine was names the fifteenth coach in team history replacing Rob Chudzinski, who lasted one year in Cleveland. Reasons for Play: The Browns preseason has not been good. Named starting quarterback looked dreadful and No. 1 draft pick Johnny Manziel didn’t look much better. To top it off they lost their best receiver, and arguably one of the best in the league, Josh Gordon for the season to suspension. It will be hard to replace the 1,646 receiving yards that Gordon amassed. Cleveland’s starting QB Hoyer will have to try and find a replacement for Gordon as the Browns brought in two new receivers, Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin, during the offseason. He will have talented tight end Jordan Cameron to relieve some pressure. They also brought in a new running back free agent Ben Tate to handle rushing duties. The offense looked so bad during the preseason that many were calling for Manziel to be the starter to open the season. All these signs do not point to good things for the Browns offense. The Steelers are slowly turning to youth on the defensive side of things. Three of their starters up front our only in their fourth year, they will also start a rookie at inside linebacker in Ryan Shazier. Cornerback Cortez Allen is another player with limited experience‚ but the defense will still have veterans Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor in the secondary and Lawrence Timmons at linebacker to lend leadership and stability. This defense must be licking their chops to get a chance at this offense. The Steeler offense will look again to pound the ball on the ground with second year player Le’Veon Bell getting the start‚ with fellow running back LeGarrette Blunt getting his share of carries. Both were arrested in August for marijuana possession, but that will have no effect on this game. He'll have to work hard without Gordon‚ with expected starters Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin brought in during the offseason to help fill the void along with talented tight end Jordan Cameron. I am playing on the UNDER because Hoyer will not only have to deal with the Steelers D and Manziel over his shoulder. But he really has no offensive weapons to count on to keep the pressure off him. The Steelers will get to him early and often and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manziel enter this game today. Play the Under | |||||||
09-07-14 | Washington Redskins v. Houston Texans UNDER 45.5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 24 m | Show | |
Play on Under 45.5 Washington vs Houston I am playing this game under based on the 2 quarterbacks and Houston’s defense!! Plain and Simple. Houston’s defense is outstanding led by J.J. Watt and then they added No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney. Those two alone could be the most disruptive tandem who knows. RGIII, Jay Gruden, their offensive line and O-line coach and even Daniel Snyder has to be having nightmares thinking of these two let alone the rest of the defense. Speaking of RGIII, another reason I am playing UNDER, he now wants to be known as a pocket passer. Well, that is one thing he is not. Without the threat of the run, he will not be able to live off the short passes as he first two years. Sitting the pocket will make him a sitting duck for Watt/ Clowney and company. Houston has a new coach and quarterback. You could say the Texans have no faith in their quarterback. The made a late preseason trade for Patriot third stringer Ryan Mallet. I see new coach O’Brien establishing the run with Arian Foster and playing his first game close to the vest, relying on his defense to win this game. | |||||||
01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos OVER 54.5 | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -102 | 163 h 54 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Pats/Broncos. There's no need to get into individual player match-ups today, we all know the strengths and weaknesses of each club. I'm basing this selection on strong O/U trends and common sense. New England had the fifth ranked offense, averaging 419 YPG; Denver is No. 6 with an average of 363 YPG. I simply expect the top two QB's of our generation to open up the playbook and to battle it out in a classic shootout. The Pats' weakness was clearly on the defensive side of the ball this season, and while Denver was fantastic to start, it stumbled many times in the second half, it's secondary will be in for a long day vs. New England's precise pivot. Note that New England has seen the total eclipse the number in four of its last six as an underdog, in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records and in eight of 13 vs. conference opponents this year. And note that Denver has seen the total soar above the posted number in six of nine home games this season and in seven of 13 vs. conference opponents. Expect this one to sneak above the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 53.5 | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 41 m | Show |
10* "TOTALS CLUB" "under" Colts/Patriots. After their improbable 45-44, 28-point come from behind victory over the Chiefs last weekend, I fully expect the dome team Colts to stumble in what is expected to be extremely inclement weather conditions in New England on Saturday night. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck is going to have a hard time moving the ball tonight vs. the Patriots' talented CB tandem in Aqib Talib and Logan Ryan who combined for nine INTs this year. That said, the Colts won't be going down without a fight obviously; they can take solace in the fact that Patriots' QB Tom Brady had his worst passer rating (87.3) since his first full season in 2003. Also note that Brady was sacked 40 times this year, the most since 2001. And that's music to Indianapolis pass rusher Robert Mathis who led the league with 19.5 sacks and who had one last week as well. Brady has been getting the job done with a patchwork offensive unit all year, but the continued absence of TE Rob Gronkowski will definitely have an impact in this playoff contest; the team will be forced to lean heavily upon RB's LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley who combined for 1,545 yards and 14 scores this year. Note that Indianapolis has seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of its last 24 road games. And note that New England has interestingly seen the total go "under" the number in four of six this year after two or more consecutive SU wins. With both teams putting an added emphasis on the run game due to the weather conditions, combined with the strong situational factors and the "under" trends that each exhibit in this spot, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring "chess match" style of contest; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 47 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 148 h 0 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Chargers/Bengals. Not very interested in laying a full touchdown with a Bengals team that is 8-0 SU and ATS at home this year and not real interested in taking the seven with a San Diego squad that had the planets align just to get to this point. These teams met December 1st with Cincinnati winning 17-10 at Qualcomm with the teams combining for just 688 yards of total offense. The game was a virtual instant replay of their Dec 2, 2012 meeting in San Diego won by the Bengals 20-13 with the teams stuck with just 636 yards of total offense. The Bolts were 9-3 to the under in their conference games while the Bengals have been held to 21 points or less in half their games. Both teams will look to establish the run which will run clock and shorten the game making the under all the more probable. It's deja vu all over again today in the Queen City. | |||||||
12-29-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears UNDER 52 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Packers/Bears. This is a massive game for both teams. The NFC North is on the line. Each is coming off an embarrassing effort: Green Bay fell 38-31 at home to PIttsburgh, while Chicago was destroyed 54-11 at Philadelphia. Both sides will be looking to atone for those pathetic performances I played this total at 52, the moment it came out. It's since moved the other way. No matter, if you can get 52 or better, then you're loving it. The Packers have seen the total go 5-2 on the road this year, while Chicago has seen it go 5-2 at home (11-4 overall); when the dust does finally settle at the end of this game, I fully expect a "correction" to have occurred to these lop-sided numbers. Note though that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in three of five this year vs. teams with winning records, while Chicago has seen it dip below the posted number in three of five vs. division opponents. This is a great situational play, as I expect Packers' starting QB Aaron Rodgers to come in a with a bit of rust in his first game back from injury, leaning heavily on his team's improved rush attack. Rodgers would be wise to be keep his eyes open for the Bears' Lance Briggs, who looks for a better performance in his second game back in the lineup. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the "under" as the correct call in this one. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-22-13 | Denver Broncos v. Houston Texans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Broncos/Texans. The Denver Broncos are 11-3, while the Houston Texans are just 2-12. Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in six of seven at home this year, while Houston has seen it soar above the posted number in five of six on the road. These two amazingly lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I'm fully expecting a "correction" to have occurred. This is a great situational play as well, as both teams have key offensive weapons sitting out: for the Broncos, dynamic WR Wes Welker will be out for the playoffs, and for the Texans, RB Arian Foster will be sitting. The Broncos are in a fight still, but control their destiny, with a game in lowly Oakland next week. The one area that Denver obviously needs to fix is on the defensive side of the ball. Denver is looking to bounce back from a 27-20 defeat to San Diego last week; here's a perfect opponent for the defense to get untracked against. The Texans are stumbling to the finish line and managed just 3-points at Indianapolis last week. When the final whistle sounds this afternoon, I'm expecting to have witnessed a hard-fought, conservative style of game and for this number to ultimately sneak below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Vikes/Bengals. As with most of "totals selections", this fits into one of my systems, but is also a great situational play. Minnesota has seen the total go 5-2 on the road this year, while Cincinnati has seen it go 4-2 at home. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I'm expecting a "correction" to have occurred. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to 10 points range, while the Bengals have seen it dip below the number in ten of their last 18 vs. teams with losing records. I had a bad call last week with the Vikes' "under", as Minnesota was able to easily move the ball against the Eagles porous defensive unit; I don't think that happens at all this week though vs. a highly motivated Bengals team which is coming off a listless 30-20 setback at Pittsburgh last weekend. Note that Minnesota is just 4-9-1 this year, all four victories coming at home; it's an abysmal 0-6-1 away from friendly confines. Cincinnati is undefeated at home though and controls its playoff destiny; a game at home vs. Baltimore next week puts on added emphasis on today's contest. I'm expecting to see a highly concerted effort from the Bengals defensive unit. There's no question that the Vikes can put up some numbers in the dome, but their achilles heel has been their play on the road; with inclement conditions expect, look for their offense to stall once again. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to a lower-scoring game; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions UNDER 48.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 149 h 22 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Ravens/Lions. Both teams are in position for a playoff birth, and as such, I'm expecting a smash-mouth, hard-hitting affair, an emphasis on ball and clock control by each. I look for this total to ultimately sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Baltimore is rolling, but faces a difficult end to its year with two of its final three on the road, including a visit to Cincinnati in its regular season finale. Detroit is stumbling down the stretch, loser of three of its last four. The Lions will be looking to atone for their pathetic effort in last week's "Snow Bowl" in Philadelphia in which they gave up a ghastly 28 points in the final 15 minutes. Expect a renewed commitment to the run game this week for the home side with the expected return of dynamic back Reggie Bush. Note that Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU victories. And note, despite the high-scoring shootouts its played in this season, Detroit has interestingly seen the total go "under" the number in both of its Monday night contests over the last two seasons. A great situational play; I believe that the numbers, the trends and the situation all clearly point to the "under" as being the prudent wager in this particular matchup. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 51.5 | Top | 30-48 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 46 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Eagles/Vikings. If you've followed me for a while, you already know what I'm going to say, but for new clients, or for people hopping on board for this big play, I'm going to repeat something I've been trying to club everyone over the head with, which is just to let them know about my "handicapping style". I'm a situational handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are meaningless in my process. I'm also a "numbers" guy. Did you ever see the movie "Moneyball" starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane? The movie is about how the A's organization transformed the way MLB clubs put together their teams. The A's unorthodox style of selecting their players looked purely at "numbers" (both statistical numbers and financial dollars), and not individual "star" players. That's pretty much how I handicap my games; I look at numbers and trends, not who is on the field, in the back-court, or between the pipes. Philadelphia has seen the total go 5-1 on the road this season, while Minnesota has seen it go 5-1 in front of the home town crowd. These amazingly lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon, and once the final whistle sounds at the end of the day, I expect a "correction" to have occurred. Note that Philadelphia has in fact already seen the total go "under" the number in three of four this year after two or more consecutive SU victories, and in three of four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. And note that Minnesota has seen the total dip below the number in four of its last five vs. the Eagles franchise. This is a big game for the Eagles obviously as they look to win a sixth-straight. They'll be facing a Minnesota side that is likely to be without the services of star RB Adrian Peterson due to injury; note that if he does play, AP will be far from 100% today. So "looking past" the Vikes' is absolutely not something that Philadelphia can do: "It probably is (a trap game) in the media's eye, but we know that Minnesota is a great team and you can't get caught up looking at records or anything like that," Eagles' centre Jason Kelce said yesterday. "All you can do is focus on how they play defense, and then for me, focus on what's the best way to attack them and score points." Also note that Minnesota's competent backup RB Toby Gerhart missed practice this week as well because of a hamstring injury, and is also listed as questionable. Minnesota's offense has been a work in progress all year, and its defense has been pretty horrible; if the Vikes have any shot at winning today though, it's the defensive unit which will have to pick up the slack. I believe that a home-game is just what the doctor ordered to give the group the "shot in the arm" they need. The situation, trends and the numbers all point to the "under" as being the sharp wager in this one. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-08-13 | NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers OVER 45.5 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 152 h 30 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Giants/Chargers. When you think of these two clubs, for the most part "offense" is one of the first things that comes to mind. With Eli Manning under center for New York and Philip Rivers in San Diego, there's no question that these two elite QB's have the potential to put points on the board in a hurry at any given moment. However, surprisingly that hasn't been the case for the Giants on the road this year as the total is just 2-4 for them away from friendly confines. And equally as surprising, the Chargers have seen the total go 2-3 at home this season. These two lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon and I'm absolutely expecting them to correct themselves in this game as each side opens up the playbook offensively. Note that New York has seen the total go "over" the number in three of four this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, and in 8 of its last 12 in the same position over the last two. And note that San Diego has seen it soar above the total in all three non-conference games it's played this season and in seven of its last 11 in the same position over the last two. Both teams still have playoff aspirations, and as such, we can expect each to push from the opening kickoff until the final whistle. A sunny afternoon in San Diego, along with the other factors I've listed above, all point to a higher-scoring shootout between these two hopeful clubs. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 54 | Top | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Lions/Eagles. Inclement weather forecasted has done little to effect this total. Detroit is 7-5, including 3-3 on the road. It hammered Green Bay 40-10 on Thanksgiving and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried over into this game. Philadelphia is 7-5, but just 2-4 in front of the home town crowd. It's coming off a 24-21 win over Arizona last weekend. Note that Detroit has seen the total fly above the posted number in four of five this year vs. teams with winning records, and in 15 of its last 24 over the last two seasons in the same position. And note that Philadelphia has seen it soar above the number in ten of its last 16 when playing against a team with a winning record. Both teams are rolling and I expect each to open up the playbook today. While Detroit looked better defensively last week, note that it was an oddity, its least amount of points given up in the last two years; expect the Lions' defensive unit to return to mediocrity in the hostile conditions. The Eagles have finally found their starting QB, the offense is rolling like a well oiled machine. That said, the defensive unit is clearly the weak point for Philadelphia, and there's no question that it will have its hands full with this explosive Lions offense. The situation and trends all point to a higher-scoring shootout; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-08-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 43 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Bills/Bucs. Here's a great situational play. Buffalo is 4-8, including only 1-4 away from friendly confines. Tampa Bay is 3-9, including only 2-4 at home. The Buccaneers have seen the total go 4-2 at home this year, while the Bills have seen it fly above the number in four of five on the road this season. These lop-sided trends collide on Sunday, and I absolutely look for them to correct themselves as I expect these two bottom feeders to slug it out in an ugly affair in early December. Note that Buffalo has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last seven as a road dog of 3 points or less. And note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three this year when playing the role of favorite. Both teams made mistakes last week which cost them their respective games; Buffalo would cough the ball up in its final two possessions in Sunday's 34-31 OT loss to Atlanta in Toronto, guaranteeing the beleaguered club a 14th straight season without a playoff appearance. I believe that crushing setback will be weighing heavily on this teams' collective psyche. Tampa Bay was rolling with three straight victories but went into Carolina and got thoroughly embarrassed in a 26-7 setback, finishing with a dismal 206 total yards of offense. With both teams putting an added emphasis on running the ball while on offense, and overall ball and clock control, and when couple with the situation and strong "under" trends each team exhibits in this spot, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring affair. In this "chess match" style of game where field position becomes paramount, I'm going to play the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
12-01-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Carolina Panthers OVER 41.5 | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 16 m | Show |
10* CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR "over" Buccaneers/Panthers. I am a situational handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are meaningless in my process. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I'm expecting to have seen a high-scoring shootout and for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that Tampa Bay has already seen the total go "over" the number in two of three in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year and in five of eight as an underdog. Carolina is one of the better defensive teams obviously; take note though that it's shown a penchant to playing to higher scoring games in this position already this year, the total flying above the number in three of five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Panthers have also seen the total go "over" the number in two of three vs. teams with losing records, and in 11 of their last 14 vs. division opponents (Tampa has seen it fly above the number in three of four vs. divisional foes this year). This is a big game for both teams. For Tampa it's an opportunity to build on three straight victories in which its totalled 87 points. It also looks to avenge a listless 31-13 loss at home to Carolina back in Week 8. For Carolina, another divisional win is on the line today as it goes for its eighth straight victory, before a big game on the road next week in New Orleans. This sets up as a classic high-scoring shootout in my opinion. Tampa has a ton of confidence and I believe can catch a somewhat complacent home side defense off-guard and put some points on the board today, putting pressure on the Panthers do likewise. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" 49ers/Redskins. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these NFC foes to battle tough on the national stage and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. The 49ers The 49ers are 6-4, including 3-2 on the road. To say their in a tough division would be an understatement I have to think after the way the Rams and Cardinals dominated yesterday. Last week the 49ers would lose a frustrating 23-20 game in New Orleans, a contest which was theirs for the taking late. And because of the way the team lost, I fully expect it to be focused on the task at hand this evening, with no reason at all to look ahead to anything. Note that San Francisco has seen the total dip below the number in 11 of its last 20 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, and interestingly in two of its last three when playing on Monday Night Football. The Redskins Washington is just 3-7 overall and 2-2 at home. They say "winning" solves everything; if that's the case, then losing sure has a way of amplifying the weaknesses. The Redskins most recently lost a listless 24-16 game at Philadelphia on Sunday. Having already seen the total go "under" the number in both games this year after two or more consecutive losses, note that Washington has seen it dip below the number in eight of its last 11 in the same position over the last two. The Bottom Line After epic rookie seasons a year ago, both teams' QB's have gone through some growing pains in 2013, both on and off the field. San Francisco's QB Colin Kaepernick is ranked 31st in the league in completion percentage at just 56.2, along with only 11 TD passes. Washington's QB Robert Griffin III has completed less than 60 percent of his passes for only 14 TD's to 10 INT's. So while the media discusses these polarizing pivots, we'll instead put our focus on the units which will be looking to play big tonight, and that's each team's defense. With each side putting an added emphasis on the run game to alleviate pressure off of their maligned QB and with a couple of stout defensive units going head to head on MNF, all signs point to a lower-scoring battle. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 44.5 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Colts/Cardinals. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these two offensively minded dome teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to fly above the number early. Having already seen the total eclipse the number in two of three non-conference games this year, note that Indianapolis has seen it go 7-3 in the same position over the last two. And note that Arizona has seen it sail above the number in ten of its last 16 vs. clubs with winning records. The Colts are 4-1 on the road, while Arizona is 4-1 at home. Cards' QB Carson Palmer was 30 of 42 for 419 yards and two TDs in last Sunday's 27-14 win over the Jaguars; in all the veteran has completed nearly 69% of his passes with six TDs and two INTs over his last three games. QB Andrew Luck continues to shine for the visitors, but last week it was RB Donald Brown who would steal the show, going for a season-high 80 yards and scoring two second half majors. The conditions, situation and trends clearly point to a high-scoring game; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans UNDER 43 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 140 h 43 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Jaguars/Texans. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these two struggling divisional foes to battle tough in Houston and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the afternoon. The Jaguars At 1-9 overall and 1-4 on the road, Jacksonville has actually been one of the most talked about teams this season, but for all the wrong reasons. It's looked pretty inept in all three phases, showing flashes of promise for a play or two. Despite the high-scoring games that it's been involved in this year, this has in fact been a spot which Jacksonville has seen the total dip below the number many times over the last two seasons; 4-10 to be exact in its last 14 vs. divisional opponents. The Texans Houston has always been a "sexy" darkhorse pick to win the Super Bowl, and that was once again the case in the offseason this year, however a number of different issues on both sides of the ball were exposed early and this team has struggled ever since. It's safe to say, at 2-8 overall and 1-4 at home, this is not where the Texans expected to be at this point of the season. Houston has been a disaster for bettors ATS this year, but for O/U bettors that have played the "over" in Texans' games, it's been a non-stop buffet of profits. That's why it's important to note that Houston has in fact seen the total dip below the number in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 10 points range. The Bottom Line Houston will start QB Case Keenum for a fifth straight time; he looked decent in last week's loss to the Raiders, but pretty inept in the second half, eventually getting pulled to make way for Matt Schaub. However, if the home side wants to break out of its funk, there's just one way to do it and that's to dominate defensively. The Texans rank first in the NFL in total yards allowed and passing yards. That doesn't bode well for a Jags team which was held to just 274 total yards in last week's 27-14 home loss to the Cardinals. Jacksonville amassed a season-low 32 yards on the ground. Unsurprisingly, the Jaguars are last in the league in averaging just 12.9 PPG. Look for the defensive units to be the main story in tomorrow's summaries and play the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 33 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Chargers/Chiefs. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these division rivals to open up the playbook and for this total to sneak above the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in two of three this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in seven of eight in the same position over the last two. It's almost impossible to find a single "over" trend for the Chiefs in any statistical category over the last two seasons, meaning that it's doubly important to note that it has in fact seen the total fly above the posted number in three of its last five as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. This is an important game for the home side, which must quickly forget about last week's loss to the Broncos, focus on this divisional contest and not get caught "looking ahead" to another matchup vs. Denver on the horizon: "As great as it is to win, it's lousy when you lose. We have to find a way to deal with it," Chiefs' QB Alex Smith said yesterday. "We have to find a way to get better and prepare for (Sunday). We see (the Broncos) again in two weeks, but we have to prepare for another big division game (Sunday). These games keep getting bigger." Expect Smith and RB Jamaal Charles to get back on track this week after a sub-par effort vs. the Broncos. The Chargers will be motivated to hand the home side another loss; despite QB Philip Rivers throwing for 298 yards and RB Ryan Mathews going for a season-high 127 on the ground, the Chargers were limited to their fewest points of the season in last week's 20-16 loss at Miami, their fourth straight. Expect the Bolts' veteran QB to come out slinging, looking to take advantage of a secondary which was finally exposed vs. Denver last week. When you add it all up, all signs definitely point to a higher-scoring game; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 41.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 120 h 32 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Panthers/Dolphins. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these non-conference opponents to battle tough in Miami and for this total to sneak below the posted number at the end of the afternoon. Note that Carolina has already seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of four this year after two or more consecutive victories. Having already seen the total dip below the posted number in three of five this year when playing the role of underdog, note that Miami has seen it go 10-16 in the same position over the last two. Carolina has been getting the job done quietly on both sides of the ball. QB Cam Newton is evolving once again into one of the elite in the league, seemingly "growing up" over night, being wise with his decisions and precise with his performance: "It's just fantastic, just watching Cam grow, watching him lead this team, watching him go 83 yards," Carolina's WR Steve Smith echoed earlier in the week. "You hear all about statistics, about other guys having game-winning drives. Now Cam has his game-winning drive against a big team, against a worthy opponent. Just watching the young man grow - I just saw that young, 24-year-old Cam Newton just chipping away." The Panthers' defense is led by DE Charles Johnson, first in the NFL in scoring defense at just 13.5 points allowed per game. The Fish won't go down without a fight though and looked great in slowing down the high-flying Chargers in last week's 20-16 victory. These are two tough defensive units going head to head; in these types of "chess match" style of contests where field position becomes paramount, there's only one way to play it: play on the "under"! Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-24-13 | Chicago Bears v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Bears/Rams. I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these conference rivals to battle tough under the dome and for this total to ultimately stay below the posted number. Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three this season when playing the role of underdog, and in nine of 16 in the same position over the last two. And note that St. Louis has shown a penchant to play to an "under" in this position over the last two seasons, the total dipping below the number in ten of its last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Both teams are starting second string QB's. With Jay Cutler injured, Josh McCown will once again get the start for the Bears; in four games and two starts, McCown has thrown for 754 yards, five major scores and zero INT's. But as good as Chicago's offense has been at times this year, it's been the defense which has improved the most over the last few outings. Chicago has won two of its last three, giving up an average of just 20.3 points in the process. That doesn't bode well today for the Rams' Kellen Clemens; Clemens got his first win in three starts last time out in place of the injured Sam Bradford. St. Louis is coming out of its bye. Just like Chicago, while its offense has looked pretty good overall this year, it's been St. Louis' defensive unit which has really been turning the heads of late. Keep your eyes on Robert Quinn who had two sacks in his last outing. No need to overanalyze this one. A couple backups vs. two of the hottest defenses = a hard-fought low-scoring battle. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" 49ers/Saints. San Francisco is 6-3 overall and 3-1 on the road. It's coming off a listless 10-9 loss at home to Carolina last week. The 49ers inefficiency in the pass game has been fully exposed and we can now expect teams to use the same blue print of success every week to get into the back field to disrupt oft-maligned QB Colin Kaepernick. New Orleans is 7-2, including 5-0 at home. It's coming off a high-scoring 49-17 annihilation of the Cowboys last week. The Saints though will now face one of the better defensive units in the league, one which has held its last three opponents to a combined 37 points over its last three games. Despite the higher-scoring games that San Francisco has been involved in this year, note that it has in fact seen the total dip below the number in two of its last three as a road dog of 3 points or less. And note that New Orleans has seen the total go "under" the number in four of five vs. conference opponents this year. The Bottom Line San Francisco will make you pay if you force the long ball and as such, I expect the home side to really pound the rock today; this of course leads to ample clock killing. San Francisco will also need to establish its run game throughout to alleviate the pressure off of Kaepernick. The situational factors and trends all point to a low-scoring battle; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants UNDER 43 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Packers/Giants. The Packers are 5-4, including 2-2 on the road. When starting QB Aaron Rodgers went down, the team promptly has lost two straight, combining to score just 33 points in the process, including a listless 27-13 setback at home to the Eagles last week. The Giants are 3-6, including 2-2 at home. They're coming off three straight victories, holding their opposition to just 34 points in the process. A great situational play here; Green Bay needs to lean heavily on RB Eddie Lacy throughout without its star under center to guide things. New York has put an added emphasis on running the ball as well during its win streak, topping 30 carries in each contest during its streak. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. Note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 13 of its last 20 vs. teams with winning records. The Bottom Line All signs definitely point to an all out war and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the total to sneak below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | Detroit Lions v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 93 h 41 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Lions/Steelers. Detroit is 6-3, including 3-2 on the road. Last week it held on for a 21-19 win at Chicago. Pittsburgh is 3-6, including 2-2 at home. Last week it beat Buffalo 23-10. Detroit leads the NFC North and will look to separate itself from the rest of the pack with a big win on the road at Heinz Field. The Steelers clearly have a different plan though, and sitting at 3-6, they still mathematically have a shot at winning the AFC North with Cincinnati at just 6-4. Note that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in both non-conference games it's played this season. Note that like their counterparts, the Steelers have seen the total go "over" the number in both of their non-conference match-ups this year. The Bottom Line Before the game vs. the lowly Bills, the Steelers defense had given up a mind-boggling 76 points in back to back losses to the Raiders and Patriots. This is not a good unit and is clearly a weak point for the team. That said, Pittsburgh's offense has looked much better of late and has been the unit which has had to win the games this year, putting up 54 points over the last two outings. The Lions' offense is licking its proverbial chops to get at the home sides' inept unit this week you can count on that. When the smoke clears at the the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak above the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-17-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Chicago Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 93 h 40 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Ravens/Bears. Baltimore is 4-5 overall and just 1-4 on the road. It's coming off a 20-17 win over rival Cincinnati though and will definitely be looking to parlay that success (especially on the defensive end, remember, the Bengals had put up a combined 71 points over their previous two games) with another big effort in hostile territory. Chicago is 5-4, including 3-2 at home. It's coming off a 21-19 setback vs. Detroit on Sunday, losing its starting QB in the process. A great situational play here; Baltimore clearly showed progress on the defensive side of the ball last week and it will be putting an added emphasis on ball and clock control while on offense at blustery Soldier Field. The Bears will be without starting QB Jay Cutler for at least one contest as he deals with a sprained ankle. That means the team will be leaning extra heavily on RB Matt Forte, who will be extra motivated himself after being held to a season-low 33 yards on 17 carries last week. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in three of five on the road this season. Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival. The Bottom Line When you think of these two teams, the very first thing that comes to mind is: "extremely tough defensive units". But for the most part, that's simply not been the case this season. I believe that changes this week though; the situation sets up perfectly as a smash mouth style of contest, where field position becomes paramount, and in these "chess match style" of games, I'll always take the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 40.5 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 173 h 42 m | Show |
10* O/U BOOKIEKILLER "over" Dolphins/Bucs. Miami is 4-4, including 2-2 on the road. It's coming off a 22-20 win over the Bengals back on Halloween night. Tampa Bay has yet to win a game this year and is coming off a disheartening 27-24 setback at Seattle last week, a game in which it fell apart down the stretch. With both teams letting it all hang out tonight, I believe that the defenses will take a back seat to some explosive offensive fireworks and look for this total to sail above the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Dolphins A great situational play; finally Miami can get out on the field and play and have something else to talk about than the Incognito scandal. A victory would put the Fish back into the front running of the AFC Wild-card race. Keep your eyes on RB Lamar Miller who had 105 yards on 16 carries last week. The defense looked sharp, sacking Andy Dalton for a safety in OT for the win and forcing four turnovers. QB Ryan Tannehill threw zero INT's. Note that Miami has already seen the total eclipse the number in both games that it's played this season as a favorite. The Buccaneers Tampa looks to make amends after letting a fourth quarter lead slip away to the Seahawks: "Tough loss, but there's a lot of good things on that tape. ... Things we can build off of," coach Greg Schiano said afterwards. There were definitely some silver linings to take out of the loss though as the 24 points scored by the Bucs was a season-high. QB Mike Glennon was 17 of 23 for 168 yards last week; he's thrown five TDs and no INTs over his last three games. Note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" the posted number in four of six this year as an underdog, and in 17 of 28 in the same position over the last two. The Bottom Line All signs point to a higher scoring affair; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 144 h 19 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Panthers/49ers. Carolina has seen the total go 4-4 this year, including 3-1 on the road. Last week it annihilated the Falcons 34-10. San Francisco has seen the total go 5-3 this season, including 2-2 at home. It's won five straight, including a 42-10 annihilation of the Jaguars in London two weeks ago. Both clubs are loaded defensively and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect these units to be the main story line in tomorrow's headlines. The Panthers Carolina has won four in a row over mediocre competition. It will have to be at it's best today to knock off the home side which comes into this game having won five straight. "I think a lot of people are doubting us and what not," tackle Jordan Gross said earlier in the week. "But we know how good we are and we've just got to go out there every week and prove it." QB Cam Newton will have his hands full today as the 49ers ranks fourth in the league in opponent passer rating at 75.3. Note that Carolina has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of its last five off a win vs. a conference rival. The 49ers Like Carolina, San Francisco's win streak hasn't come against very good teams. That said, there's no question that it's turned things around after a sluggish start. RB Frank Gore is second in the NFL in rushing since Week 3 with 558 yards; he'll have to contend with the NFL's second-best run defense in the Panthers who allow only 79.1 YPG. QB Colin Kaepernick is in line for a tough outing as well as Carolina has given up a total of 43 yards on 21 carries to opposing QB's this season with zero TDs. Note that the 49ers' passing games ranks last in yardage this season. And note that San Francisco has seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 19 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bottom Line Offenses that are geared to run the ball vs. the league's elite defensive units; all signs point to a hard-hitting, low-scoring defensive battle. Play on the "under". Good Luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-10-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show |
10* play "under" Seahawks/Falcons. Seattle has seen the total go 5-4 so far this season, including 3-2 on the road. Last week it came from behind to to beat the Bucs 27-24 in front of the home town crowd. Atlanta has seen the total go 5-3 this year, including 4-0 at home. It's lost two straight on the road, including a listless 34-10 setback at Carolina last week. After sub-par performances from each side in its last game, I look for each to put an added emphasis on the defensive side of the ball this week and look for this total to sneak below the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Seahawks The 'Hawks come in with a chip on their shoulder after getting ousted from the playoffs by a FG in Atlanta last season. Expect a big defensive performance today; Seattle owns the leagues second ranked unit, allowing just 296 YPG. It's second in the NFL in passing yards allowed (under 180 per game), and is tied for the most INTs with 13. Note that Seattle has seen the total go "under" the posted number in in two of three road games this season when there total is between 42.5 and 45 points. The Falcons QB Matt Ryan is in for a long day today as he's throw seven INTs to just two TDs in back to back losses: "I think everybody is disappointed with where we're at, there's no question about it," Ryan said earlier in the week. "I think there were high expectations for our football team coming into the year, but certainly things have not gone as we'd hoped. "You've got to keep plugging away. You've got to keep working hard and try to find ways to make it better. I think that's what all of us are trying to do." The Falcons will look to once again get their ground untracked, last in the league in averaging 64.4 per game and just three rushing TDs. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go "under" the posted number in nine of its last 13 vs. teams with winning records. The Bottom Line A visiting side with a score to settle. A home team that's desperate to turn things around. This will be an all out war; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons | |||||||
11-04-13 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 228 h 42 m | Show |
10* "MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR" Bears/Packers "under". I played this game ten days ago and have 48.5. That line has now moved quite a bit the other way. Regardless of that, I absolutely love this selection and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, fully expect this total to stay below the posted number. The Bears Chicago lost 45-41 at Washington two weeks ago. Under new head coach Mark Trestman, the Bears have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league thus far, the O/U sitting at 6-1. In fact, over the last two seasons you'd be hard pressed to find a single "under" trend for Chicago in any statistical category. Therefore, it's definitely significant to note that the Bears have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Packers Green Bay pulled away for a relatively simple 44-31 win at Minnesota last week. Green Bay has been one of the higher-scoring teams over the last few seasons, but has actually seen that trend reverse dramatically this year, especially at Lambeau; note that the Packers have seen the total go "under" the number in both games this season vs. teams with winning records and in two of three in front of the home town crowd. The Bottom Line Whenever these clubs get together it's an all out battle as evidenced by the fact that the O/U is 1-4 the last five in the series. Without Jay Cutler under center this week, the Bears will have a hard time moving the ball; note that Green Bay has won 11 straight at home, allowing an average of just 14.7 points, and in the last five of those games has given up just three field goals and no TDs in the first half. With Cutler out, expect to see a heavy dose of RB Matt Forte this evening. Chicago will have its hands full on the defensive side of the ball but catches a bit of a break with injuries to Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and James Jones. The Bears will also have to handle a run game which is ranked near the top of the league with an average of 141.4 per contest. With inclement conditions forecast and when taking into account all of the other factors that I listed above, all signs point to a hard-hitting, smash-mouth lower-scoring Monday Night Football. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |