Warning: Use of undefined constant PAGE_HEADER - assumed 'PAGE_HEADER' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/profe126/jesseschule.com/respsportscapping.php on line 15
PAGE_HEADER

INCORRECT IDE CHOSEN: THE PLAY IS ON NEW ENGLAND.

This is a 4% TOP SIDE PLAY on the New England Patriots.

I had the Hawks and the UNDER in the Super Bowl last year, but I think the Patriots can, at the very least, take this game right down to the wire and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

The Pats had one of the easiest paths to the Super Bowl last year, but that won't be the case this season, starting with this Week 1 matchup.

New England has some offensive line issues, but Drake Maye should be able to take advantage of a few opportunities himself. 

The Patriots defense was a strength last year, and that will again be the case this season. 

Seattle had success on the ground in the Super Bowl vs. the Pats last year, but Kenneth Walker III isn't on the team anymore, and Zach Charbonnet is injured, leaving RB's George Holani and Jadarian Prince to shoulder the load.

Sam Darnold relies a lot on the play action, and that chemistry could potentially take an early hit.

New England's secondary was great last year, and it doesn't give up a lot over the top, so Darnold's PA numbers are poised for regression in my opinion.

Here is Drake Maye about this revenge game: “It’s definitely, I wouldn’t say extra, just a little bit — It’s a chance to start the season off strong, on a good foot, and knowing that the opponent we have, you get to say a bit of your revenge game. But I wouldn’t say revenge game. They won the big one. We’ve got to start the season off and you can’t get that game back that we lost. So, we’re on to something new,” Maye said.

Maye has new weapons, though, including AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs. 

I'm going contrarian on opening night. I think the most likely outcome is the outright victory for NEW ENGLAND, but my official call for this play is to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a SUPER BOWL WINNER on the Seahawks FIRST HALF.

As we head into the final NFL game of the season, I enter the Super Bowl with a 58-47 record for +1.88 units. 

Admittedly, this wasn't my best Football season of all time, but after going 2-0 in the National Championship game, I did go on to post my third straight winning College Football campaign.

And win or lose this pick, I'm also going to go on to post my third straight winning NFL season. Guys, it shouldn't come as a surprise to learn that I'm the No. 1 NFL/CFB "combined" capper on the site since the start of the 2023 season.

I am sure hoping to win this pick, but I often find it difficult to uncover  value in Super Bowls, as the lines are always super sharp, with the bookmakers putting their full focus on this game.

I'm playing it conservatively this year, but I do enter having gone 47-30 with my last 77 NFL picks, and I'm 245-203 with all NFL picks since the start of the 2023 regular season.

There are a lot of different story lines involved in this game. There are a lot of conflicting stats for each team heading into this contest.

All of those stats can be thrown out the window, in my opinion, this year.

The Patriots' supposed "easy" path to the Super Bowl, or perhaps "fortunate" is a better term, is well documented and speculated about, but I do think there's some real truth to that line of thinking.

Considering that they barely squeaked by the Broncos with their backup quarterback under center, I have a hard time seeing Drake Maye and the Pats keeping pace with Sam Darnold in this one.

Recent form plays a big part in this pick.

The Patriots' defense has been shouldering the load for their young quarterback, but now they face a Seahawks' offense that's put  up a combined 72 points and a defense that's conceded just 33 in their two playoff wins.

The Hawks had a 24-6 lead over the 49ers going into Halftime in the Divisional Round, and they led the Rams 17-13 going into Halftime in the Conference Championships. 

I think this pattern continues in the Super Bowl now as well.

For the record, Seattle averages 28.4 points per game, which is ranked third, while allowing only 17.2, which is ranked first; New England averages 28.8 points per game, ranked second, while allowing 18.8, which is ranked fourth.

As good as New England's defense has appeared, I think there's room to find some issues with the unit's performance to this point.

The beat a struggling Christian Herbert in the snow, before then getting four turnovers out of CJ Stroud in the snow as well. 

And who knows how good the defense looked in the victory over Jarret Stidham and the Broncos in the Conference championship. I really think that Bo Nix would have put up significantly more points on the board.

So, New England has, in fact, had an easier path to the Super Bowl in my opinion, and now facing the league's No. 1 defense, combined with an offense that's playing in the stratosphere right now, I like SEATTLE to win and cover in the FIRST HALF.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Rams/Hawks.

While these teams played to a high-scoring outing last time out in the Seahawks now legendary come-from-behind 38-37 OT win in Week 16, I think we'll have much more of a defensive battle here in the rematch, similar to LA's 21-19 win at home over Seattle in Week 11. 

Seattle covered as a 3-point dog in that one, and it failed to cover as a 1.5-point favorite in the OT victory in the second.

LA, Seattle, and San Francisco are very similar defensively.

The Hawks and 49ers split two very low-scoring regular-season games, but their divisional playoff matchup last weekend went over the number in the Hawks' 41-6 victory.

The Rams and Hawks went 1-1 SU in the regular season, and the total went 1-1 as well.

I live in the Pacific Northwest, and it's been unbelievably great weather up here, and it'll be nice again next weekend in Seattle, as far as the weather is concerned.

Despite that, though, as I said at the start, I'm expecting a very defensive battle here in the grudge match and in the spotlight of the Conference Championship hanging over these teams.

I've been writing analysis and poring through stats for two decades now, and I'm telling you right now, it would be super easy for me to write a very convincing argument for this to be either a high-scoring game or a super defensive battle (like I believe it will be!)

We have two quarterbacks who are on fire in the Rams' veteran Matthew Stafford and in the Seahawks' Sam Darnold.

But we also have two of the best defensive clubs going head-to-head as well.

The tale of the tape, though, sees LA averaging 30.5 points per game, which ranks first, while allowing 20.4, which ranks tenth.

Seattle, on the other hand, averages 28.4 points per game, while conceding 17.2, which ranks first.

So, it's a classic strength vs. strength here, with LA's No. 1 offense going up against Seattle's No. 1 defense. 

That said, neither is a slouch on the other side of the ball, either, obviously.

And so, it comes down to what pace of play the game most likely has.

Will it be more of a chess match, like in their first extremely competitive matchup?

Or will it be a shootout, like in their second extremely competitive matchup?

As you already know, I feel it'll follow after the first game, where these elite defensive units set the tone.

The team that protects the ball the best and wins the field position and time of possession battles is going to come out on top in this one, in my opinion.

The old adage, that "defense wins championships," could not be more apt in this case.

This number is high in my opinion, so I'm on the UNDER in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

Good luck, NP

This is a SIDE WINNER on the SEAHAWKS on the MONEYLINE.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm a contrarian. I rarely side with the public, just out of principle. 

However, when you get down to the final few games, the value really starts shrinking, and I tend to throw the where the "money and bets are" factor out the window. 

These lines are as sharp as they get at this point, with the bookmakers' full focus put onto every aspect of the game.

So, while the Seahawks are an overwhelming public favorite here, both against the spread and on the moneyline, I definitely feel it's the correct choice.

And so I like Seattle both against the spread and on the reasonable moneyline, and this pick is on the latter officially.

The tale of the tape, though, sees LA averaging 30.5 points per game, which ranks first, while allowing 20.4, which ranks tenth.

Seattle, on the other hand, averages 28.4 points per game, while conceding 17.2, which ranks first.

So, it's a classic strength vs. strength here, with LA's No. 1 offense going up against Seattle's No. 1 defense. 

That said, neither is a slouch on the other side of the ball, either, obviously.

LA won the first game 21-19 at home as a 3.5-point favorite, before Seattle then posted the legendary come-from-behind 38-37 OT victory in Week 16.

If it wasn't for that comeback, then it would be the Rams who likely would have won the NFC West.

These teams are very evenly matched, and with a spread and moneyline like this, the oddsmakers think so as well. Or, at least they're trying to lead us to believe that's the case.

It really does "feel" like a coin flip, but I think that Seattle's home-field advantage will finally prove critical for it on the biggest stage.

Seattle's defense has been spectacular, though, over the last two games, winning 13-3 in Week 18 over the 49ers to clinch the Conference and then 41-6 here at home over San Francisco in the Divisional Round.

LA's path has been much tougher. It held on for the 34-31 OT win at Carolina, needing to come from behind to win that Wildcard game, before then winning 20-17 in overtime at Chicago last week in the divisional round. 

Matthew Stafford has gutted out the two victories, but the Rams didn't cover in either game.

And now here they are, the underdog in their third straight road game.

In the Week 11 loss, Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold uncharacteristically threw four interceptions, and the Seahawks did have a chance to win right at the end, but kicker Jason Myers missed the 61-yard field goal as time expired.

The Hawks are 6-2 straight up at home, while the Rams are 5-4 on the road.

I think the difficult and demanding playoff road schedule finally catches up to LA, and I look for Darnold and the Hawks to grind out a victory on the way to the Super Bowl.

The play is SEATTLE on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Patriots/Broncos.

I'm working on my third straight winning NFL season. I was 1-4 with my Wildcard picks, but I bounced back in the Divisional Round with a 3-0 card.

I'm playing side and total in both Conference Championship Games and will likely have a teaser or prop bet this week as well. 

I've already released a play on the side in this one, and if you're purchasing this pick, then you get a bonus here, as I'm on the PATRIOTS in the FIRST HALF (-2.5) as my official side pick in this contest, but I also like New England for the game against the spread as well.

New England has been fantastic on the road this season, perhaps at its best, in fact, going 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. 

Denver only averages 23.6 points per game, but it makes up for it on the other side of the ball by conceding only 18.3.

Granted, the Broncos' defense looked terrible in the win over Buffalo, and now they face another gun-slinger in Drake Maye.

Denver is better at stopping the run than the pass as well. 

New England, though, enters firing on all cylinders right now on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.2 points per game, which is ranked second, while allowing only 18.8, which is ranked fourth. 

The Patriots' defense has been elite now that the Playoffs have started as well, conceding just 19 combined points over the first two wins and covers.

For me, it comes down to the New England defense vs. the Broncos' backup quarterback, Jarrett Stidham. 

The Pats actually drafted Stidham in the 2019 draft in the fourth round. Since then, though, Stidham has appeared in only 20 career games.

For his entire career, he's completed 117 passes for 1,422 yards to go along with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.

He came over to the Broncos in 2023 and hasn't taken a snap all year, and he hasn't thrown a meaningful pass in the NFL since 2023.

I can't believe how many people and fellow cappers I talk to who speak so highly about Stidham, but I'm not convinced at all.

If this were a regular-season game, I'd almost assuredly be leaning towards the Broncos and their backup quarterback, but the Conference Playoff scenario squashes that factor completely.

Stidham is in over his head, and Denver will be forced to lean on its run game throughout this contest to alleviate the pressure off their backup quarterback. New England has been decent against the run, though, allowing 101.7 yards per game, which ranks sixth.  

The only way Denver wins this game is by grinding out a victory and winning the turnover battle. The Broncos will be looking to kill the clock while on offense to limit the time that Maye touches the ball.

The bottom line for this pick is that I see Denver's defense doing all of the "heavy lifting" in this game, and I can't see Stidham producing anything positive.

I think this number is high, so I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a FIRST HALF TOP on the Patriots.

For a number of different reasons, I love the way this one sets up for New England. I like the Patriots a lot more in the FIRST HALF; however, if you don't have access to FIRST HALF lines, for some reason, then I do also like New England against the spread for the entire game as well.

Both teams have been fantastic to this point, and each is loaded with talent up and down the lines on each side of the ball.

However, with the late injury to Bo Nix in the Broncos' tight 33-30 OT victory over the Bills last week here in the Divisional Round, clearly, the Broncos are at a major disadvantage. 

And I believe that Drake Maye and the Patriots can step up and take advantage, and I fully expect that to pay major dividends immediately.

New England has been fantastic on the road as well this season, perhaps at its best, in fact, going 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. 

Denver only averages 23.6 points per game, but it makes up for it on the other side of the ball by conceding only 18.3.

But the Broncos' defense looked terrible in the win over Buffalo, and now they face another gun-slinger in Drake Maye.

Denver is better at stopping the run, than the pass as well. 

New England, though, enters firing on all cylinders right now on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.2 points per game, which is ranked second, while allowing only 18.8, which is ranked fourth. 

The Patriots' defense has been elite now that the Playoffs have started as well, conceding just 19 combined points over the first two wins and covers.

For me, it comes down to the New England defense vs. the Broncos' backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. 

The Pats actually drafted Stidham in the 2019 draft in the fourth round. Since then, though, Stidham has appeared in only 20 career games.

For his entire career, he's completed 117 passes for 1,422 yards to go along with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.

He came over to the Broncos in 2023 and hasn't taken a snap all year, and he hasn't thrown a meaningful pass in the NFL since 2023.

If this were Houston playing here this weekend, I'd be leaning heavily to the home dog in this spot, as the Texans notoriously struggle in colder weather.

However, Maye and the Patriots will be right at home.

In fact, I'll argue that it's going to be Stidham who's going to feel the effects of cold weather more than any other player on the field after being thrust into the spotlight.

These teams were very evenly matched heading into this AFC Championship Game, but the loss of starting quarterback Bo Nix is going to be too big for the Broncos to overcome, in my opinion.

And it's as simple as that.

New England will be looking to pull off a little "Shock and Awe," so to speak, in the FIRST HALF as it looks to put the pressure on Stidham. 

As I said, I believe the BEST BET is to take the PATRIOTS in the FIRST HALF, but I also like them AGAINST-THE-SPREAD as well.

Good luck, NP

This is a SUNDAY NIGHT WINNER on the Bears.

The money and bets are pretty much split down the middle in this one. 

Can LA's experience and superior play at the quarterback position be enough for the banged-up Rams to cover the spread in the conditions at Soldier Field is the big question.

I think this will definitely be a highly competitive game, and I see it coming right down to the wire. 

You'll see a lot of stats about Matt Stafford and his team's struggling in cold-weather games (he's 1-9 for his career), but he was fine in last year's playoffs against the Eagles, finishing with 324 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the snow. 

And so, right off the top, I'll say that I'm not basing this pick whatsoever on anything to do with Stafford's past failures or successes in "snow" or "cold" weather games.

LA was 12-4 overall, but a pedestrian 5-4 straight-up on the road. 

Chicago, on the other hand, was 11-6 overall, including 6-3 against the spread at home. 

When these teams played here in September 2024, Chicago won by a score of 24-18. 

Stafford was 20 of 29 for 224 yards in the loss, with zero touchdowns and one interception, while Bears' quarterback Caleb Williams was 17 of 23 for 157 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.

LA enters averaging 30.5 points per game, which is ranked first, while allowing 20.4, which ranks tenth.

Those numbers decline slightly on the road, though.

Chicago enters averaging 25.9 points per game, which ranks ninth, while conceding 24.4. which ranks 23rd.

Those numbers, though, increase slightly at home.

One area that many often overlook when assessing the Bears is their superb way of both protecting and being able to take away the ball, as Chicago ranks 1st on offense in turnovers conceded with only 11 this season, while also ranking first in takeaways defensively with 23.

While I do think the Stafford "cold weather" stat is completely overblown, I can't say the same thing for the rest of his team, though. The weather is going to affect the West Coast team, as temperatures are supposed to "feel" like -11 if gusts reach the expected 25 miles per hour. 

LA had to hold on for dear life in its 34-31 win over Carolina to advance, while I thought Chicago was pretty much in the driver's seat the entire time in its 31-27 victory over the Packers. 

LA comes in banged up as well, on both sides of the ball, with many key players now sidelined. 

Additionally, note that the home team has won eight of the last nine games between these teams in the series, and the Rams have, in fact, lost each of their last five road games against NFC North opponents. 

Finally, as good as LA's defense has been this year, it's definitely started to decline as the Rams come into this Divisional Round matchup having allowed 27-plus points in four of their last five games.

The bottom line for this one: while I feel the outright victory is probably going to be the most likely outcome for the BEARS, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a DIVISIONAL ROUND BOB on the Patriots on the moneyline.

While I do feel that a comfortable against-the-spread victory is the most likely outcome for the Patriots in their Divisional Round home matchup against the Texans on Sunday afternoon, I feel the sharpest move is to grab New England on the moneyline option just to win this one outright.

Houston finished 12-5 overall, including 5-4 against the spread on the road, while New England closed at 14-3, including 6-3 straight up at home.

I had a play on the Steelers last week, and obviously, the Texans surprised me. I knew their defense was second only to the Seahawks, but I still thought they'd have a few issues on the road with the veteran Aaron Rodgers, but that did not prove to be the case.

It was a dominant effort for CJ Stroud and the Texans on both sides of the ball, but now here they are facing the Patriots, who looked equally as good in their commanding 16-3 victory over the Chargers here last weekend.

We have two very evenly matched teams, but I think that the Patriots' superior offensive play, along with the home-field advantage, swings the pendulum in their favor.

Houston averages 23.8 points per game, which is ranked 13th, while allowing 17.4, which is ranked second. 

The Patriots average 28.8 points per game, ranked second, and remember I believe it's Drake Maye's offense that will turn out to be the difference-maker in this matchup, and they concede 18.8, ranked fourth.

While Stroud and the Texans managed to get the job done in somewhat adverse weather conditions in Pittsburgh last weekend, that's typically not been the case for Houston, which, for the most part, struggled in cold temperatures. 

Houston put up 30 points in the victory, but note that two of those touchdowns came via the defense. And that masked the fact that CJ Stroud had three turnovers. 

This game is going to be full of short gains and extended drives, both of which are anchored by the run. The Texans had 163 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry in their Wildcard win, while New England rushed for 146 yards and 5.0 yards per carry against the Chargers. 

So this ultimately comes down to which quarterback I trust more in this spot, and without question its Maye.

And as we noted off the top, the Patriots have the home-field advantage and the clearly superior offense.

When you add up all of these different factors, I think New England should be over a FG favorite and believe the value lies in avoiding the spread altogether, and instead playing the PATRIOTS on the reasonable moneyline option.

Good luck, NP

This is a DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BET on the Broncos on the moneyline.

I'm going to suggest bypassing the small spread and instead playing Denver at home in the Divisional Round against the Buffalo Bills on the reasonable moneyline option.

My main points are simply that the Bills have been mediocre for bettors on the road this season, and that Denver enters off a bye and has been fantastic at home. 

And the bottom line here is that I think those factors are more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Broncos.

Buffalo is 12-5 overall, including 5-4 ATS on the road, while Denver is 14-3 straight up overall and 8-1 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread at home.

The Broncos also play with the added incentive of revenge after losing 31-7 at Buffalo in the Playoffs last season.

Bo Nix finished 13 of 22 for 144 yards, one touchdown, and on interceptions for the Broncos, while Josh Allen was 20 of 26 for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions for the Bills in the victory.

Buffalo enters averaging 28.3 points per game, which ranks fifth, while allowing 21.5, which ranks 12th. The Bills are No. 1 against the pass, allowing 156.9 yards per game through the air, but No. 28 against the run, conceding 136.2 YPG. 

Denver averages 23.6 points per game, ranked 14th, while allowing 18.3, which is ranked third. The Broncos rank seventh against the pass, allowing 187.2 yards per game, while also allowing only 91.1 yards per game rushing, which is ranked second.

The Bills barely held on for the 27-24 Wildcard road win at Jacksonville, and now here they are, a road dog again at Mile High, and I think Buffalo is about to crack.

The Bills' defense looked shaky last week, and I think it'll be even worse in this difficult road venue.

Additionally, Allen's receiving group is banged up big time, and Allen himself sustained a few minor injuries as well.

The Bills' offense is also missing its Running Back TWO, and the Jaguars were able to shut down James Cook pretty effectively.

The Jaguars' secondary eventually succumbed to Allen's pressure, but the Broncos have an elite pass defense, and they've faced some elite quarterbacks already this season in Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Jordan Love. 

Nix isn't as explosive as his veteran counterpart, but the Broncos excel with being the third-best in the league at Yards After the Catch. 

Allen and the Bills have struggled all season with the "better" defensive teams in the league, managing only 12 points against Philadelphia, 19 points vs. the Texans, and 23 points in a tight victory over the Browns. 

And so Denver is as good, if not better than, any of those teams here at home.

The Broncos have a clear "home field" advantage this year, and they play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after last season's Playoff loss.

The Bills are also tremendously banged up on both sides of the ball.

For all the reasons listed above, I'm on DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Steelers.

We have an interesting Wildcard Monday Night Football matchup here between the Texans and the Steelers, and in an incredibly evenly-matched contest that I believe will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

Houston finished 12-5 overall, including 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread on the road, while Pittsburgh was 10-7 overall, including 6-3 straight up and against the spread at home. 

The Texans enter the Playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the country after nine straight victories, but other than the wins over Jacksonville and Buffalo, their other competition clearly needs to be called into question over that stretch. 

Houston averages 23.8 points per game, which ranks 13th, while allowing 17.4, which ranks second. CJ Stroud finished with 3,041 passing yards, along with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. 

The Texans allow 183.5 yards per game passing, ranked sixth, while conceding 93.7 yards per game rushing, ranked fourth.

The Steelers went into the Playoffs winning four of five, including the 26-24 home victory over the Ravens in Week 18 as 4.5-point underdogs to clinch the division title.

Pittsburgh averages 23.4 points per game, which ranks 15th, while allowing 22.8, which ranks 17th. Aaron Rodgers finished with 3,322 yards passing, along with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Pittsburgh concedes 243.9 yards passing, which ranks 29th, while allowing 113.1 rushing yards per game, ranked 13th. 

If this game were played on a neutral field, the Texans would be a 6 to 6.5-point favorite, and I'd be on Pittsburgh in that situation as well.

But there's no denying that each has played better at home this season, and in a situation like this, I believe it really does help and make a big difference, especially at this time of year, and especially for Stroud, who struggles in outdoor venues. 

In fact, Stroud shows noticeable career dips in completion rate and yards per attempt when on the road this season.

It's also interesting to note that Houston has averaged 21.8 points per game in "open-air" games, compared to 19.8 points on the road overall. So, that's a 7.5-point drop versus its home offensive production.

Additionally, note that the Texans have only played outdoors once in their last eight games, a Week 14 journey to Kansas City, where Stroud struggled, completing just 48 percent of his passes for barely 200 yards, along with taking three sacks. 

Pittsburgh will be in its element with temperatures right around 26 degrees, with wind gusts up to 21 miles per hour across the field on Monday night, while the Texans look poised for a big letdown in my opinion.

While I feel the outright win is the most likely outcome for the STEELERS on Monday, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL ANNIHILATION play on the OVER Chargers/Patriots.

I love the way this one sets up to be more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle.

LA finished 11-6, including 5-3 on the road, while New England was 14-3 overall, including 6-3 at home. 

The Chargers dropped their final two games of the season, including a 19-3 setback at Denver in Week 18, while New England closed the regular-season with three straight victories, including a 38-10 beatdown of Miami here at home in the finale.

These teams haven't played since December 24th, 2024, and the Chargers won here by a score of 40-7.

The tale of the tape, as far as their offensive and defensive numbers are concerned, LA averages 21.6 points per game, which is ranked 20th, while allowing 20.0, which is ranked ninth, while New England averages 28.8 points per game, which is ranked second, while allowing 18.8, which is ranked fourth.

At this time of year, you have to always take into account the weather conditions when betting totals, and one of the biggest reasons I like this play on the over is simply because it's going to be  pretty much perfect weather conditions to play in.

The current forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 20's. So, with no snow or rain in the forecast, and with winds not expected to top 20 MPH, Foxborough is going to be clean. 

We have two above-average defenses facing two dynamic, play-making quarterbacks, and in my opinion, it's going to be the men under center that dictate the winner of this game, in what I foresee being a classic "shootout." 

Drake Maye is an MVP candidate, and he has Mike Vrabel in line for the Coach of the Year award. 

Maye is going to be looking to put on a show here in the first playoff game at Foxboro since Brady and Belichick in 2019.

The Chargers' defense, which I just mentioned, has, in fact, faltered of late if we look at the numbers a bit closer, allowing 100-plus rushing yards in each of the last two games. 

I do LEAN towards New England here, but feel that the total is the sharper move. I really like Patriots' running back Rhamondre Stevenson and think he will likely have a big game based upon his recent form, as he's rushed for 178 yards and three touchdowns on 11.9 yards per carry over the last two weeks, while also hauling in seven catches for 77 yards and two more touchdowns.

Justin Herbert and the Chargers are going to have to keep pace with Maye and this high-flying Patriots offense if they have any shot of pulling off the upset on the road in this one. He finished with 3,727 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. However, Herbert also has 13 interceptions this season, which is the highest total of his career so far.

And when these defenses do make an impact, most likely it'll be to set up their offenses in a great position.

As I say, I think it'll be Herbert and Maye that are the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest, and because of that, I like the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an ATS BLOOD-BATH on the 49ers.

I think this is going to be a very competitive battle until the final moment, and because of that, I'm grabbing the points in this one.

The line move shows that sharp money has come in on Philadelphia, but I think the Eagles are going to have their hands full this weekend, and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm backing the road dog.

San Francisco was great on the road as well, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread.

Philadelphia was 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread at home.

The 49ers came out flat against a red-hot Seattle defense that was playing with revenge in Week 18, as San Francisco fell 13-3 last weekend.

Prior to that, though, the 49ers had won six in a row, scoring 214 points and allowing just 128 over that span. 

They also beat the Seahawks 17-13 in Seattle in Week 1 in what was another really tight and competitive battle.

Seattle, though, is No. 1 in the league on the defensive end this year, allowing 17.2 points per game.

Philadelphia isn't a slouch defensively either, as the defending champs only concede 19.1 points per game. 

Where Jalen Hurts and the Eagles took a big step backwards this season was on the offensive end, as they enter this contest averaging just 22.3 points per game, which is ranked 19th. Note as well that Philadelphia also ended the regular season with a loss, falling 24-17 at home to Washington.

Jalen Hurts finished with 3,224 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, while Saquon Barkley finished with 1,140 rushing yards. 

On the other side of the field, Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers average 25.7 points per game, which is ranked tenth, while allowing 21.8, which is ranked 13th.

Brock Purdy missed a few games due to injury, but returned and looked good and finished with 2,167 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.

McCaffrey led the way on the ground with 1,202 rushing yards, and he also led the team in receptions with 102 for 924 receiving yards.

Does it matter that the 49ers have won each of their last six games against NFC East opponents?

It certainly doesn't hurt! Also note that Purdy has recorded 230-plus passing yards in eight of his last nine road appearances vs. NFC opponents.

Recent form also needs to be taken into consideration here. Their Week 18 losses aside, the 49ers are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games, while the Eagles are 3-4 SU and ATS over their last seven. 

And for whatever reason, San Francisco has enjoyed plenty of success here over the last half-decade, going 3-2 in its last five visits to Philadelphia. 

I really respect Philadelphia and Hurts, but I'll argue that McCaffrey and Purdy, the rest of the 49ers, are the hungrier team, and I expect them to play like it.

The outright is not out of the question whatsoever, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can with SAN FRANCISCO.

Good luck, NP

This is a WC GOY on the Jaguars.

I like the Jags to find a way to get the job done here at home on Sunday afternoon. 

Buffalo finished 12-5 overall, including 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread on the road, while Jacksonville was 13-4 overall, including 7-2 SU and ATS at home.

The Jags arguably closed out the regular-season as the hottest team in the league with eight straight wins. Over that stretch, Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville posted 269 points and conceded only 116. 

Overall, Jacksonville averages 27.9 points per game, which ranks sixth, while conceding 19.8, which ranks eighth.

They allow 218.1 yards per game through the air, which ranks 21st, but they concede only 85.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks first.

On the other side of the field, Josh Allen and the Bills average 28.3 points per game, which ranks fifth, while allowing 21.5, which ranks 12th.

The Bills were solid down the stretch as well, winning five of their last six, with their only loss being a 13-12 setback at home to Philly as a three-point favorite in Week 17. 

The Bills are No. 1 against the pass, allowing 156.9 yards per game, while No. 28 against the run, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per contest.

Buffalo has been flirting with the Playoffs for a while now, but I'll argue that Lawrence and the Jaguars are the much hungrier and more motivated team, because just one year after finishing 4-13, they now enter this Wildcard game as the home side and off a 13-win regular-season.

Lawrence has been steadily progressing the last few years, but it's been under coach Liam Coen that he's taken another big step in that journey of progression. 

Coen was approached by reporters after the regular-season finale in which they decimated Tennessee by a score of 41-7, and he had this to say about the resiliency of his team this season:

"I think it's this group specifically, as so many times we've talked after Houston is really dug in and really treated every week like a playoff game," Coen told reporters. "Trevor, I think said it best yesterday was like we were in must-wins to win the division, and to be in the situation that we're in, we kind of treated them all that way, and it was one and all each week. And I think the no flinch, no blank mentality of playing four-quarter football games and for 60 minutes or longer is the mentality."

It also doesn't hurt that Lawrence is 2-1 against Buffalo in his career. Also note that dating back to Week 13, Lawrence has thrown just a single interception. 

Allen is an "X" factor, obviously. If he has an exceptional game, Buffalo will likely win.

But if he doesn't have one of the best games of his career, then I see the Jaguars winning this one handily. 

But Lawrence's numbers over the last two months are better in every metric over Allen's, so the fact of the matter is, is that there isn't an advantage here for the Bills' dynamic pivot whatsoever in this quarterback matchup.

Both teams have their work cut out for them today, but I think the situational factors working in favor of Jacksonville that I just outlined (the home-field advantage and the fact that Lawrence's numbers are superior over the last eight weeks) tip the scales in favor of the JAGUARS on Sunday afternoon.

Good luck, NP

This is a WILDCARD TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bears/Packers.

These teams played a competitive and lower-scoring game on December 20th in Week 16 at Soldier Field, and I'm expecting a duplicate outcome as far as the combined score is concerned.

The other game in Green Bay was in Week 14, and the Packers won that by a score of 28-21.

Jordan Love was injured in the second quarter of the last game in Chicago, and the Packers' dynamic pivot will have to once again have his head on a swivel here on Saturday night.

Clearly, outdoor football in Green Bay or in Chicago at this time of year can be greatly impacted by the weather. 

I'm delivering this pick on Tuesday, but the early forecast for Saturday's NFC Wild Card matchup between the Packers and the Bears looks to be pretty decent football weather. 

There's supposed to be possible rain or snow in the morning, but then over the day, the skies will just be overcast with mild temperatures. There will be wind gusts between 10 and 20 miles per hour, but they are almost identical to the conditions when these teams first played this season.

And in that game, each team was looking to establish the run throughout. 

Temperatures in the 20s or 30s will have little effect on two teams that are used to playing in winter conditions, but the wind affects many different things in terms of passing down the field, kicking, and punting. 

The overall storyline of this contest is that it's Bear's quarterback Caleb Williams making his Playoff debut and that he faces a considerable test in Love and the Packers' defense, anchored by pass-rushing phenom Rashan Gary.

The tale of the tape, as far as their stats are concerned, finds the Bears averaging 25.9 points per game, which is ranked ninth, while allowing 24.4, which is ranked 23rd, while Green Bay averages just 23 points per game, while allowing 21.2, which ranks 11th.

There's nothing better in the NFL than a divisional grudge match, but one other factor I think we have to be careful about watching is "recent form."

Love didn't play in Green Bay's 16-3 loss at Minnesota in the regular-season finale, but the Packers come in having lost four in a row.

Can Love step up here and deliver an epic performance, or will the run-first Packers lean on their strengths to alleviate the pressure from the injured quarterback? Clearly, it'll be the latter.

The Bears' offense, also, isn't quite as good as it would appear, as they're 21st in net yards per play, 16th in total DVOA, and 11th in success rate. 

And those numbers are mediocre at best.

The Bears were hit or miss down the stretch as well and enter the Playoffs off two straight losses, including a 19-16 home setback to a depleted Lions team last week.

Both teams had big expectations this season, and their first goal was to make the Playoffs.

That's happened, and I think we're going to have a great game here, and the team that wins is going to be the one that protects the ball the best and wins the field position and time of possession battles.

For all the reasons listed above, the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a SUNDAY NIGHT NFL WINNER on the UNDER Ravens/Steelers.

Massive implications here for each side and I've broken this game down on several videos this week.

Pittsburgh won the first matchup 27-22, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle this time around.

Note that the Ravens have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Look for a competitive battle to be a lower-scoring one.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an NFC SOUTH GOM on the Buccaneers on the moneyline.

The Panthers need a victory to get into the Wildcard, while the Bucs need a win and for the Saints to beat the Falcons to earn a spot.

I like Tampa to bounce back here, though, after four straight losses and to avenge an earlier 23-20 loss at Carolina in Week 16. 

Carolina has a decent run game in Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, but the Bucs have a Top 10 rush defense that concedes just 104.1 yards per game on the ground, which ranks seventh.

The Panthers have problems scoring points on the road and with Baker Mayfield playing with revenge and setting the early tone, I love TAMPA BAY to find a way to get the job done in its regular-season finale (moneyline).

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF GOM on the Rams.

I saw a very interesting stat the other day, that the underdogs went  7-0 ATS (5-2 SU) on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas games this year.

Well, this isn't a holiday here on Monday, and Matt Stafford and the Rams won't be messing around or looking past this opportunity following a tight 38-37 OT loss at Seattle in Week 16, in my opinion.

LA will look to respond and win the final two games of the year, with another favorable matchup at home next weekend against division light-weight Arizona, who threw in the white towel a few weeks ago. 

Atlanta has been eliminated from playoff contention, despite back-to-back victories, and I just can't see playing the role of spoiler as being a big enough motivating factor this week to put up much of a fight against the Rams.

LA averages 30.5 points per game, which is No. 1 in the league, while conceding 19.9, which ranks fourth.

Atlanta, on the other hand, averages 20.5 points per game, while allowing 24. 

LA is 5-3 straight up and 6-2 against the spread on the road, while Atlanta is both 2-4 straight up and against the spread at home.

LA had its six-game win streak snapped in Week 13's 31-28 loss at Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite, but then the Rams responded with a 45-17 destruction of the Cardinals as 9.5-point favorites on the road.

Atlanta got a gutty 29-28 win at Tampa Bay to help play spoiler for the Bucs in Week 15, and then last weekend it pulled away for the 26-19 victory over a putrid Arizona side.

Now back at home, a letdown feels imminent for Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. For me, it does anyway!

Stafford remains the favorite win the MVP right now at -210 odds, and he's one of four Rams to make the NFC Pro Bowl roster. 

Davante Adams isn't expected in the lineup for LA, but without the dynamic wide receiver, I love the way this one sets up for Stafford.

The Rams only allow 105.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 11th, so I'm expecting Bijan Robinson to have a difficult time establishing the ground game.

And that's going to turn this already one-dimensional Atlanta offense even more so.

I'm laying the points with the RAMS and expecting a blowout.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the Panthers.

Both teams need a victory to hold down the No. 1 spot in their respective divisions.

Seattle has been great on the road, but after five straight wins, including the now legendary 38-37 OT victory over the Rams last week, and with a road game at red-hot San Francisco next week, I feel this is a bit of a trap game for the visitors.

Granted, the Panthers have been consistently inconsistent all year, but they're off the crucial 23-20 outright win here over Tampa Bay as 3-point dogs last week and I expect Bryce Young to be competitive again this week as well.

No outright, but much closer than expected; grab the points with CAROLINA.

Good luck, NP

This is a X-MAS DAY SIDE WINNER on the Lions.

The Vikings, ironically, enter this game probably playing their best football of the season, having won three straight, but they're 7-8 overall, including only 2-4 at home, and they've already been officially eliminated from Wildcard contention.

Detroit, on the other hand, and also ironically, enters playing its worst football of the year, having lost two of three, including two in a row, but it's still 8-7 overall, including just 3-4 on the road.

Detroit hasn't been eliminated from contention yet, but it will need to win out and get some outside help.

After this, the Lions are in Chicago, so clearly, the road ahead isn't going to get any easier for Jared Goff and company either. 

It's do or die, now or never, time to get the momentum rolling, and whatever other motivating cliche you want to use to describe the moment for the Lions, and if they can play up to their potential, then they'll have no issues not only winning this game, but also going on to cover the spread as well easily.

And that's what I'm expecting, finally, from Detroit, for a few different reasons. 

Detroit plays with the added incentive of revenge as well after a 27-24 loss to Minnesota at home at the start of November as a 9.5-point favorite, and note that looking back finds the Lions 7-2 against the spread in their last nine in trying to avenge a straight-up and against-the-spread home loss as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent. 

The Lions are still averaging 30.1 points per game, which ranks second in the league, while allowing 24.9, which ranks 23rd.

The Vikings average 20.3 points per game, which ranks 26th, while allowing 21.3, which ranks 11th.

Minnesota quarterback JJ McCarthy is listed as questionable for this contest (as of writing), and will likely end up missing this game, but if he does play, clearly he won't be at 100% health (hand). 

The Lions will be leaning on and counting on running back Jahmyr Gibbs to get back on track this week after a disastrous start in the most recent loss to the Steelers (I had Pittsburgh as one of my Circa picks last week). He'd finish with only two rushing yards on seven carries. 

Gibbs alleviates a lot of the pressure off Goff, so he'll be key for Minnesota if it wants to win.

Yes, the Vikings are playing extremely well right now, but they've already beaten Detroit once this season, and they've now been eliminated from Playoff contention.

Despite this being a national stage on Christmas Day, I don't think playing the role of "spoiler" will be enough of a motivating factor for the home side to play like their lives are on the line.

However, that's exactly the kind of effort I'm expecting out of Goff, out of Gibbs, and the rest of the revenge-minded Lions.

I mean, what better stage than this to show everyone that you're still relevant?

This is a big-time public play, which goes against my contrarian nature, but despite that, I believe DETROIT is absolutely the correct call in this spot.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the Colts.

The Colts are 8-6 straight up overall and 6-1 straight up at home. Indianapolis is also an above-average 4-2-1 ATS at home. 

The Colts, though, enter desperate to snap a four-game slide after falling just short by a score of 18-16 in Seattle last week in Philip Rivers' debut under center.

San Francisco comes to town 10-4 SU and 6-2 SU and ATS on the road.

After four straight wins, and with consecutive home games upcoming against Chicago and Seattle, I believe the 49ers could easily be caught looking ahead and a tiny bit complacent.

I think we need to call into question San Francisco's four latest victories as well.

The 49ers fell 42-26 at home to the Rams in Week 10, then beat Arizona 41-22 as 3.5-point favorites, then a 20-9 victory over Carolina as 7.5-point favorites, then a 26-8 win at Cleveland as 5.5-point favorites, and then last week at home they pulled away for the 37-24 victory over Tennessee.

San Francisco has benefited from possibly the easiest schedule in the NFL over the last 30 days, but now it faces a Colts defense that concedes just 21.6 points per game overall, and which is even better at home. Indianapolis is fantastic against the run as well, allowing just 95.1 yards per game, which ranks sixth, and which doesn't bode well for 49ers' back Christian McCaffrey.

And on the offensive end, Indianapolis averages 28 points per game.

But that was primarily with Daniel Jones under center.

I had a play on the Colts last week in Seattle, and there's no question that the defense looks great right now after holding the high-flying Hawks to just 18 points, especially after what we just saw Seattle do at home this past Thursday vs. the Rams' tough defensive unit.

Rivers was decent, I thought, finishing 18 of 27 for 120 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, and should be better this week with one game under his belt.

The 49ers have gone through plenty of quarterback issues this year as well, and they enter averaging 24.6 points per game, while allowing 20.9.

Brock Purdy was 23 of 30 for 295 yards and three touchdowns last week for San Francisco against an inept Titans defense, which also allowed McCaffrey to rush for 73 yards and a touchdown as well.

Purdy also had 44 rushing yards last week, but again, the Colts specialize in stopping the run, and so I believe San Francisco's offense will be really one-dimensional this week.

But, with upcoming games against Jacksonville and Houston, this essentially  becomes a must-win game for the Colts.

Purdy has 1,442 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, and despite this being only his second game back, I'm not sure if he's light-years ahead of Rivers at all in this head-to-head matchup.

The run games are comparable as well, but the Colts likely have the slightly better special teams and defense.

And a defense built to stop the 49ers' most potent weapon while on offense.

I think it's worth considering sprinkling a little on the MONEY LINE as well, but my official call here, guys, is to grab as many points as you can with the COLTS.

Good luck, NP

This is an AFC NON-DIVISION TOY on the UNDER Jags/Broncos.

Denver is on an 11-game win streak, while Jacksonville is on a five-game win streak.

The Jags only allow 20.9 PPG this year, while Denver concedes just 18.6.

I just don't see this one being a shootout between these red-hot clubs, instead I expect it to be very defensive overall.

The last time these teams played was back in 2022, and Denver won 21-17 as a 2.5-point dog in Jacksonville.

Just like in that game, the team that protects the ball and wins the field position and time possession battles, is going to find a way to come out on top in my opinion.

Everything points to another competitive, but defensive UNDER in 2025 in my opinion. 

Good luck, NP

This is a NFC NORTH GOM on the Bears.

Chicago plays with revenge following the 28-21 loss at Green Bay two weeks ago. The Packers just had their four-game win streak snapped last time out in Denver, falling 34-26 and I think are now primed for another letdown here vs. the revenge-minded Bears.

Chicago bounced back with a big 31-3 win here over Cleveland last weekend and I expect the BEARS to carry that momentum over here in this divisional revenge spot.

Let's bypass the spread and instead just play CHICAGO on the MONEYLINE to win outright.

Good luck, NP

This is an NFC WEST GOM on the Hawks.

In what is being hailed as the biggest Thursday Night Game of the year, I think that the home-field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in a contest between two 11-3 NFC West rivals.

That said, I do realize the Rams have been great this year, going 5-2 SU and ATS. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the Pacific Northwest this season.

However, the Hawks play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well, following a tight 21-19 loss at LA in Week 11, and note that dating back the last two years Seattle has responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU divisional road loss vs. an opponent.

While unable to pull out the victory, Seattle did post the ATS cover with the field goals worth of points it was afforded in that one.

It really was a coin toss there in the middle of the regular season, but now, here at the end of the year, and with so much on the line, including first place in the division, I really do think that the home-field advantage is going to prove critical for the Hawks on Thursday.

LA clinched a Wildcard spot as well with its win over the Lions last Sunday, and now, here on the short week on the road, a letdown feels imminent to me.

With much more "winnable" games against the Falcons and the Cardinals to close out the season as well, the temptation for Matthew Stafford and company to get caught "looking ahead" is also another factor that the visitors will have to overcome.

As primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up for the competitive Sam Darnold. It actually feels like a trap game here for the Rams, after clinching a Wildcard and with two much "easier" games on the horizon. However, with the division crown on the line, it's hard to see LA looking past the season.

But that said, I still think from a situational standpoint, the Seahawks are the correct call here at home. 

As good as Stafford has looked this year, it's Darnold who still seeks redemption and has been playing with the much bigger chip on his shoulder all year.

The bottom line here for me is that this is just a great situational play, as I feel Seattle should be at least a FG favorite here.

So, that swings the value onto the SEAHAWKS on Thursday in my opinion. 

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF GOW on the Steelers.

This is a big game for both teams, but it's one that favors the home side in my opinion. I like Pittsburgh against the spread, but depending on your risk tolerance, I also like the Steelers on the moneyline. I took them on the moneyline, but really like them ATS as well.

Miami comes in having won four straight, but I'll caution reading too much into its current win streak.

The Steelers are coming off a pivotal 27-22 win at Baltimore to move to 7-6 and into first place in the AFC North last weekend. Aaron Rodgers and company now control their own destiny in the division. 

They're going to have to be super careful to not get caught "looking past" the Dolphins in this one as well with a big rematch against Baltimore in Week 16, although they'll have the benefit of playing at home. 

Miami is on the cusp of a wildcard spot after its four-game win streak, but letdown feels imminent here to me finally for Tua.

And other than the 30-13 home upset win over Buffalo in Week 10, the Dolphins have played the worst of the worst, barely holding on for the 16-13 overtime win over Washington, barely holding on for the 21-13 win over New Orleans, and then easily winning 34-10 at the Jets last weekend.

Clearly, it hasn't been murderers row of defenses that Tua has had to face over the last month.

Tua had his first decent game in cold weather in his entire career last weekend, but otherwise he'd gone 0-7 for his career when the temperature was 8 degrees Celsius or colder at kickoff. 

Tua didn't even do much in last week's victory over New York, going 13 of 21 for 127 yards and a TD.

The Dolphins took advantage of a terrible Jets' run defense, but they now run into a Pittsburgh defense that's allowing 23.9 points per game overall, and which has been better at home against the run than on the road.

De'Von Archane had 92 yards and a touchdown for the Dolphins in the win over the Jets, but he left late in that game with a rib injury. 

If Archane does play, he'll be less than 100%, and that's a blow to an already pretty one-dimensional Miami offense.

Miami averages only 21.6 points per game, which ranks 22nd, while allowing 22.8, which ranks 15th.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, averages 23.7 PPG, ranked 14th, whil allowing 23.9, ranked 19th.

An injury to TJ Watt is more a long-term detriment for the Steelers' defense, but not here in this matchup vs. Tua and and the Dolphins here at home.

Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-high 284 yards last week along with a passing touchdown, as well as running in a touchdown as well for the first time since 2022.

Top wide receiver DK Metcalf also had his biggest game ever as a Steeler last weekend with 148 yards on seven catches. 

One other supporting trend to keep in mind as well is that Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh are 4-1 against the spread in their last five Monday Night Football appearances.

Pittsburgh is now a -170 favorite to win the AFC North.

It's only a -160 favorite to win this game outright here on Monday though against a suspect Dolphins team, whose recent run is more adrenaline and smoke and mirrors than actual talent and skill.

Miami coach Mike McDaniel continues to be on the hot seat and while the team has gone on a run since its fired its general manager four weeks ago, note that the Fish are still a +6,500 longshot to even make the Playoffs. 

When Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin suffers his next losing season, it will also be his first, as he posted his 190th career victory last time out to move to tenth all-time in league history.

While not perfect last weekend, Rodgers and the Steelers managed a monumental victory last week and I'm expecting them to now build off that victory here at home.

I like PITTSBURGH on Monday night, both AGAINST THE SPREAD, but I also think the STEELERS are worth the price of admission on the MONEYLINE as well.

Good luck, NP

This is an NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Lions/Rams.

All eyes are on the veteran gun-slinging quarterbacks in this one, but in my opinion, the team that wins this game will be the one that protects the ball, wins the time of possession and the field position battle.

I think this will be much more of a defensive "chess match," rather than a "shootout" though for a couple of different reasons.

Detroit has been off since it's 44-30 win at home over Dallas on December 4th. The Lions enter having seen the total go OVER in three straight, but now, as I say, I feel the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

These teams played last year in Detroit, and the Lions pulled away for the 26-20 overtime win. And just like last season, I'm anticipating another competitive battle, but also another fairly lower-scoring one.

The Rams bounced back from a 31-28 loss at Carolina to beat Arizona by a score of 45-17 last week. 

On the season LA averages 29.2 PPG, while allowing 17.5 (both rank in the Top 5), while Detroit averages 30.3 PPG, ranked first, while conceding 23.4, ranked 18th.

Explosive offenses, vs. opportunistic defenses.

This could very well be an NFC Championship preview right here.

This game can still be "high scoring" and stay UNDER this sky-high total, and that's exactly what I'm expecting.

Good luck, NP

This is a NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Falcons/Buccaneers.

When the oddsmakers were putting together the 2025/26 season, this Thursday night matchup probably looked pretty good, but with the Atlanta Falcons having already packed it in on their playoff drive, the only thing they have to "play for" today is to try and play spoiler.

Tampa is still first in the NFC South, but it can ill afford to drop another divisional contest after last week's 24-20 home loss to New Orleans. I actually had the Saints as one of my Contest Picks in the CIRCA Millions and Super Contest out of Las Vegas.

Tampa has an interesting schedule to close out the year, with games at Carolina and Miami after this, followed by a home games against the Panthers to close out. 

This is clearly a crucial game for Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay, before next week's divisional matchup at Carolina. 

I'm not positive they'll be able to cover this mid-sized spread is the problem, but what I am expecting is that Atlanta is likely going to have issues on the offensive end again this weekend after last week's 37-9 loss to Seattle.

The Falcons and Seahawks were tied 6-6 going into the half, but the defense lost focus after the break, and the offense continued to struggle.

And I believe that offense will once again struggle here on the road.

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 23-20 in Atlanta in Week 1, and Bakers Mayfield only had 167 yards passing, but three TDs.

Michael Penix Jr. had 298 passing yards and a touchdown for the Falcons in the loss, but he's been deactivated for the rest of the season and it's Kirk Cousins under center now.

Cousins was 15 of 30 for 162 yards, 0 touchdowns and two interceptions last weekend. 

Bijan Robinson was a bright spot in defeat for Atlanta last week, running for 86 yards on 20 attempts, although he also had no touchdowns.

Tampa can't afford any slip ups and will be looking to execute mistake-free football. 

And while that may or many not translate into a win and cover for the Buccaneers, I do believe that style of contest and overall tempo will help in making the final combined score a much lower one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, so I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is MNF GOM on the Eagles on the moneyline (or spread, depending on your risk tolerance).

I like the Eagles to win this game. My official call is to play on the moneyline, but I also do really like against the spread as well, so you have two options here, depending on your risk tolerance.

Philadelphia is 8-4 overall, including 4-2 straight up and against the spread on the road, while LA is 8-4 also, including 5-2 straight up at home and 4-2-1 ATS.

The Eagles, though, enter off back-to-back losses, and I expect Jalen Hurts and the defending champs to now risk life and limb here to avoid a third straight loss.

Saquon Barkley has struggled this year, and the Eagles' offense has started to stall. Most recently, they fell 24-15 at home to Chicago as 7.5-point favorites.

It's interesting to note, though, that looking back over the last two years, the Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten following a straight-up and against-the-spread home loss as 7-point or greater favorites.

The Chargers are off a 31-14 win over Las Vegas, but previously to that, they fell 35-6 at Jacksonville.

With upcoming games at Kansas City and Dallas, though, LA faces a difficult upcoming schedule for sure.

For me, this one comes down to the fact that Philadelphia is still simply the better overall team in my opinion, despite some of the injuries, and that i's also certainly the more motivated side following the two straight losses.

Lay the price, the play is on PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF TOW on the OVER Eagles/Chargers.

This is a big game for each side and I'm expecting a faster pace to lead to plenty of points.

Philadelphia enters 8-4 overall, including 4-2 straight up and against the spread on the road, while LA is 8-4 overall as well, including 5-2 straight up and 4-2-1 ATS at home.

The Eagles are first in the NFC East, but they're now hungry to snap a two-game slide. I wouldn't call the defending champs "desperate" at this point, but they're certainly concerned. 

Philadelphia lost two games in Week's 5 and 6, and then responded with a 28-22 win at Minnesota and it went on a four-game win streak.

With upcoming favorable matchup at home against Las Vegas, followed by a contest at Washington after that, Philly has a prime opportunity here to post another win streak.

Clearly, though, LA won't be just "rolling over" here. The Chargers can't take anything for granted, as their remaining schedule could in fact be the most difficult in the entire league, with upcoming games at Kansas City, at Dallas, at home against Houston and then at Denver to close the campaign on January 4th.

The Chargers have won four of their last five and I think they can build off last week's convincing 31-14 victory here over the Chargers.

On the season the Chargers average 346.8 yards per game, which is ranked tenth, while allowing 21 points per game, which is ranked 11th.

The Eagles are averaging 22.5 points per game, ranked 19th, while conceding 20.8, which is ranked ninth.

These teams haven't played against each other since 2021, and the Chargers won 27-24 in Philadelphia and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here now in 2025 as well with the two capable quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts for Philly and Justin Herbert for LA, to step up and take "center stage" so to speak.

Look for a competitive battle to be a high-scoring one.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an AFC NORTH TOY on the OVER Steelers/Ravens.

As being primarily a situational handicapper, I love the way this one sets up for this divisional contest to be wide-open and high-scoring, rather than a grind-it-out defensive battle, where field position ends up deciding the winner.

Pittsburgh is 6-6 overall, including only 2-3 on the road, while Baltimore if 6-6 overall as well, including just 3-4 at home.

Despite their uneven play this year, these teams entered tied for the AFC North division lead. 

The Ravens have faced some terrible competition of late, though, so it really is difficult to get a firm read on where Lamar Jackson and the home side are right now. Jackson has definitely taken a step back with his MVP-caliber performances the last couple of seasons.

But, they're definitely going to be motivated here  to atone for a 32-14 home loss to Joe Burrow and the Bengals last time out.

This is a crucial game as far as the standings for each side, as they'll meet again in the final regular-season game in Pittsburgh on January 4th. A lot can happen for each team between now and then, but almost assuredly, that final regular-season game is going to be pivotal.

Overall, the Ravens average 24.1 points per game, while allowing 24.4. Jackson has 1,841 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, while Derrick Henry controls the ground game with 793 rushing yards. 

The Steelers are just 1-3 SU/ATS in their last four, and they enter off a 26-7 loss at Buffalo. 

The Steelers are averaging 23.4 points per game, while allowing 24.1. Aaron Rodgers has 2,086 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, while DK Metcalf has 45 receptions for 605 yards and five touchdowns.

There is cause for concern for each team on both sides of the ball coming into this matchup, but I'm expecting these Super Bowl Champion quarterbacks to finally step up this week and take "center stage," so to speak.

Expect a highly competitive battle in Baltimore to fly well OVER the number as far as the total is concerned on Sunday afternoon.

Good luck, NP

This is a THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH on the Lions.

I think the more motivated side is going to win this game, and I think that the more motivated side is Detroit.

Dallas is 6-5 SU, including 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road. 

The Lions are 7-5 overall, including 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at home.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are 3-0 SU/ATS over their last three, with big wins over Philadelphia and Kansas City, which has a lot of pundits starting to pile quickly back onto the Cowboys.

But now out on the road on the short week across the country, this absolutely feels like a letdown spot. 

And it's also a bit of a look-ahead position as well, with back-to-back "winnable" home games following this one against the Vikings and Chargers.

And that's followed by games vs. Washington and the Giants. 

Dallas has fought its way back into contention, but this letdown + look-ahead spot sets up as a trap game for the visitors in my opinion.

But, for the Lions, it really feels like a do-or-die situation here, especially with extremely difficult matchups to end the season, at the Rams next week, followed by a home game against Pittsburgh, followed by two road games to close out the season at the Vikings and the Bears.

And, more importantly, especially after falling 31-24 to Green Bay at home as a 3-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

I'll point out that the Lions have now been trading wins and losses over their last eight games.

Detroit is still averaging 29.2 points per game, which ranks second, while allowing 22.8, which ranks 15th.

Dallas, on the other hand, averages 29.1 points per game, which ranks fourth, while conceding 28.5, ranked 31st.

Clearly, the major difference between these clubs, despite the Lions being ranked middle of the pack, is on the defensive end.

And in this situation here at home, I think the unit is going to step up large and deliver a gem against Prescott.

And with Jared Goff and the offense playing with a collective chip on their shoulders after last week's meltdown, I look for the LIONS to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion, so lay the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF GOW on the Patriots.

If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm mainly a contrarian at heart and that I really like betting underdogs in the correct situations.

But this pick goes against both of those personal philosophies. I don't follow any one particular specific handicapping methodology, as I've always felt that being flexible with your approach is the best way to secure profits over the long term.

And so, despite being public favorites here at home of more than a TD, I don't expect any big upsets from Jaxson Dart and the visitors.

I expect the exact opposite, in fact.

New York is 2-10 overall, including 0-7 SU on the road. The Giants have been more competitive for bettors by going 4-3 ATS away from friendly confines.

It's almost the exact opposite for New England, which enters 10-2 straight-up overall, but just 4-2 straight up at home and 2-4 against the spread.

The Pats have won nine straight, but they're just 1-3 ATS in their last four.

But now I think that Drake Maye and New England are undervalued. I can't see Dart producing much offense here, and I look for the Patriots to keep the foot on the proverbial gas pedal from start to finish.

New England is averaging 26.5 points per game, ranked seventh in the league, while conceding 18.8, which ranks sixth.

The Giants are not surprisingly averaging just 22 points per game, ranked 22nd, while allowing 27.8, ranked 30th.

And those numbers get even worse on the road. 

The Giants are going to collectively be caught "looking ahead" here as well with their bye week next week, followed by two much more "winnable" home games in a row vs. the Commanders and Vikings (followed by a game at the Raiders).

New England also enjoys its bye week next week at the most opportune of times, as they'll then face Buffalo at home on December 14th in a key matchup.

I don't see the Patriots looking past the hapless Giants, but instead, I believe they'll be looking to send a message to the rest of the league on the National Stage before their bye week.

Lay the points, the play is on NEW ENGLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONFERENCE GOM on the Commanders.

At 3-8, does Washington have anything to play for here?

Whether the Commanders make a huge and improbable run to a wildcard spot or not, they're going to be motivated to win this game, as they come out of their timely bye week after six straight losses, both SU and ATS. 

Marcus Mariota will be under center, but his home and away splits are vastly different this season when he's had to fill in for the oft-injured Jayden Daniels.

Denver has won eight straight and I'll argue its bye-week last week came at a poor time and that rest will lead to rust. The ground game struggled in the win over the Chiefs without JK Dobbins, posting just 59 yards on 21 carries, and he won't be playing in this one either.

And so, that gives this Washington defense an extra break this week as well. It's almost a "look ahead" spot here as well for Denver, with a divisional game at Las Vegas next week, followed by a home game against the Packers.

I like Mariota to match Bo Nix this week and in a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on WASHINGTON. 

Good luck, NP

This is a SIDE WINNER on the Bengals.

I'm not going to call for an outright upset or anything, but I do think that Baltimore is overvalued in this spot, and that when we take a deeper look at its recent "turnaround," it's not quite as great as it really seems.

The Bengals have been dealing with on-and-off-field issues since Day 1 this year, but now there's room for hope with star quarterback Joe Burrow returning from injury.

And so, as I say, I won't be telling you to sprinkle a little on the moneyline, but I do absolutely feel the value lies in the hungrier and healthier visiting side in this matchup.

The Bengals enter 3-8 overall, including 1-4 straight up and against the spread on the road. 

Baltimore is 6-5 SU overall, including 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS at home.

The Bengals enter having lost four straight, but they were competitive in last week's 26-20 loss at home to the red-hot Patriots as 7.5-point underdogs. 

Cincinnati currently ranks 19th in the league by scoring an average of 22.5 points per game, while ranked 32nd on the defensive end by conceding 32.7.

Baltimore enters off five straight wins, including a 23-10 victory here at home over the Jets last weekend.

Yes, the Ravens have looked better on both sides of the ball since Lamar Jackson returned, but a closer look at their competition really does leave everything to be desired.

Since Jackson has returned, the Ravens have beaten Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland, and the Jets last week. Clearly, that's not murderers' row. 

Overall, the Ravens average 25 points per game, which ranks tenth, while conceding 23.7, which ranks 19th.

When we look a little closer at Lamar, we find that he's rushed for 14 yards or fewer in three of his last games, and he's only gone over 200 passing yards just once in that span.

Clearly, this is not the MVP-level of play that we're accustomed to seeing from Jackson.

This is the first of two matchups between the division rivals, as they'll play again in Cincinnati in mid-December.

Last year, both games came right down to the wire, and could have gone either way, but the Bengals came out on the short end of the stick on each, losing one game by a single point and the other by three in overtime.

If you fancy taking a look at the total in this one, note that six straight between the division rivals have gone over the number, with last year's contests reaching 69 and 79 combined points.

Also note that the Bengals were without their other offensive star last week in Ja'Marr Chase, who was suspended, but who returns here along with Burrow.

Baltimore's weakness going into the season was its defense, and it has seemingly been resolved over their last four games, but again, look at the competition they've faced: Tyrod Taylor, Dillon Gabriel, JJ McCarthy, and Tua. The worst of the worst right now.

Last year, Burrow annihilated this Ravens secondary for a combined 820 passing yards in those two games. Jackson threw for eight TD passes against the Bengals last year, but as I noted, the MVP has taken a big step back in his performance since returning from injury.

Next week, the Ravens play the Steelers here, while Cincinnati is at Buffalo.

It's do or die for Burrow and the Bengals this week. IF they manage the outright win, then they'll still have a shot at competing for a division title.

But if they lose today, it's time to start planning for next season.

I like a rested Burrow to play a lot better than most expect, and for that to be more than enough to keep his team competitive down the stretch.

Hell, I've now convinced myself that Cincinnati actually does have a shot at winning this one outright, and that you may want to consider "sprinkling" a little on the moneyline.

But that said, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with CINCINNATI to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire!

Good luck, NP

This is a THURSDAY NIGHT TOM on the OVER Chiefs/Cowboys.

A short week is going to lead to some higher-scoring games in my opinion. At least between these non-conference opponents anyways.

Two teams off victories, but in need of more wins after shaky starts collide in Dallas on Thanksgiving afternoon and in my opinion, everything points to this total flying OVER the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Kansas City enters at 6-5 overall, including just 1-4 straight up and against the spread on the road. 

Dallas comes into Thanksgiving sitting at 5-5 overall, including 3-1 at home.

The Chiefs have lost three straight against the spread, but the gutted out the 23-20 OT win over the Colts last weekend to save their playoff hopes. They'd lost two in a row previous to that, both on the road, a 28-21 setback at Buffalo, followed by a 22-19 loss at Denver. 

So, the come from behind  for Patrick Mahomes and company last weekend was obviously huge. And now I think they'll ride that wave of emotion and confidence into another big performance here on the National stage. 

The offense for Kansas City remains a bright spot, as they average 376 yards per game, which ranks fifth overall, and score 25.2 PPG, which ranks ninth.

Defensively KC has been strong as well overall, allowing 18.3 PPG, which ranks fourth.

But now Mahomes faces a Cowboys defense ranked 31st in allowing 28.5 PPG. It's the secondary that Mahomes has been waiting to play all season, and a short week isn't going to help the unit, and I think the veteran Mahomes will absolutely be slicing and dicing on Thanksgiving.

Dak Prescott and the offense though have been great for Dallas, they average 387.3 yards per game, which ranks 1st, while averaging 29.1 PPG, which ranks fourth.

These teams haven't played since 2021, and the Chiefs won 19-9. 

Now four years later though, with each side pushing the pace like I'm expecting, look for this contest to post plenty of offense, and for this total to fly well OVER the number in the end.

Good luck, NP

This is a FIRST HALF GAME OF THE YEAR on the CHIEFS on the MONEYLINE option.

Is the Chiefs' dynasty over?!

Maybe! But, I'd say that they've just played some tough competition to open the season and that last week's come from behind win over the Colts, a 23-20 OT victory, is just what the doctor ordered for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

If Mahomes was ever going to need a stage to let everyone know that he's still the best quarterback in the AFC and that the Super Bowl runs through Kansas City, this is it!

Dallas on Thanksgiving, and facing one of the worst defenses in the league.

Defensively, KC has been strong as well overall, allowing 18.3 PPG, which ranks fourth.

But now Mahomes faces a Cowboys defense ranked 31st in allowing 28.5 PPG. This is the type of secondary that Mahomes has been waiting to play all season, and a short week isn't going to help the unit.

And I think the veteran Mahomes will absolutely be slicing and dicing on Thanksgiving.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense has been great; they average 387.3 yards per game, which ranks 1st, while averaging 29.1 PPG, which ranks fourth.

But, the Cowboys haven't faced a lot of good defenses this year. I'll argue that this is for sure the best and most experienced unit they've faced so far.

Both teams are coming off important victories, as the Cowboys won their second straight, a come-from-behind win over division rival and defending champion Philadelphia.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot here now on the short week and facing the desperate, but well-coached and experienced Chiefs?

I smell a lop-sided blowout for Kansas City in this one, but I'm going to advise to play KC in the FIRST HALF. The Cowboys looked good in the second half last week, and I think Prescott will get out to another slow start on the short week as well on Thanksgiving.

So, I like the CHIEFS for the game, but the main pick is to take KC on the MONEYLINE in the FIRST HALF.

Good luck, NP

This is a NFC TOM on the UNDER Panthers/49ers.

For a number of different reasons I'm expecting the Monday nighter to be a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a higher-scoring shootout.

San Francisco is 7-4, including 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread at home, while Carolina is 6-5 overall, including 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road. 

The 49ers have been trading wins and losses over their last nine games and they're coming off a high-scoring 41-22 victory at Arizona. The week prior they lost 42-26 at home to the Rams.

San Francisco is playing in a tough division this year, with the Seahawks at 7-3 and the Rams at 8-2. 

Overall the 49ers average 349.4 yards per game, which ranks tenth, while conceding 352.9, which ranks 25th.

They've struggled against the pass, conceding 249.1 YPG, but they catch a break this week facing Bryce Young and the Panthers.

San Francisco has been decent against the run, conceding 103.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 12th. 

One week after getting crushed 40-9 by Buffalo, the Panthers then won 16-13 at Green Bay as a 13.5-point dog. Then it lost 17-7 at home as a 5.5-point favorite to the Saints.

And then last week Carolina survived a 30-27 overtime win at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog.

So which team shows up this week is the big question for the Panthers, but as I mentioned, they've been very competitive on the road all year, entering 4-2 against the spread as the visitor.

Carolina's strength, though, has not been on the offensive end, as it averages 314.3 yards per game, which ranks 22nd. 

The Panthers have been better on the defensive end, conceding 325.9 yards per game, ranked 15th. 

Considering some of the issues that each team has had to deal with this year, I'd say that both have exceeded most pundits expectations to this point.

I see a highly-competitive battle being a very defensive one, where field position, the men in the trenches, and the team that protects the ball the best will eventually come out on top.

This one has UNDER written all over it!

Good luck, NP

This is NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Steelers/Bears.

I think this game will be much higher-scoring that what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Pittsburgh is off an impressive 34-12 destruction of Cincinnati and I expect Aaron Rodgers and the visitors to carry over that offensive momentum into this one.

Chicago comes in as one of the hottest teams in the league, having won four of its last five, including three straight, most recently a lower-scoring 19-17 defensive-battle at the Vikings.

The Bears are first in the difficult NFC North and Caleb Williams and the home side will be pushing the pace and testing this suspect Steelers secondary, that's been prone to giving up big plays, especially on the road.

That said, the Steelers still sit at first in the difficult AFC North, and Rodgers and company will feel as if they should be favored in this spot.

Either way, with each side pushing the pace like I expect, look for this total to go well OVER the number before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a THURSDAY GOM on the Texans.

I think that the outright win for Houston is the most likely outcome on Thursday night, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Buffalo is 7-3 after its 44-32 home win over Tampa Bay. The Bills are 3-1 SU/ATS in their last four, but in their last road game at Miami, they fell apart in a humbling 30-13 loss as eight-point favorites.

Houston is a lot better than Miami right now, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out.

With a more high-profile game against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers next weekend, Josh Allen and the visitors could for sure be caught "looking ahead" on the short week here in Houston.

And that's going to be a mistake in my opinion, as Houston comes in playing extremely well. It's 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS over its last four. It's one loss was an 18-15 home setback to Denver. Last week it won 16-13 in Tennessee, but it wasn't able to cover the 5.5-point spread.

And I don't think that the Bills will be able to cover the 5.5-point spread here on the road either against backup Davis Mills, with CJ Stroud in concussion protocol for the Texans.

Mills isn't that big of a downgrade though. 

The Bills have yet to face a defense like Houston's this season either, and I think he unit will help keep this one competitive as well.

In fact, the Texans allow a league-low 16.3 points per game. Some other noticeable high-powered offenses that they've faced this year see them holding the Rams to 14 points and the Bucs to 20.

Allen has been a true dual threat QB for the Bills, as he has 2,456 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions, with 351 rushing yards and another ten major scores on the ground. 

In three games this year though Mills has completed 72 of 120 passes for 726 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception. 

The Bills defense has been a weakness and this hungry Texans home side is going to have some opportunities. As I said, I think the outright win is the most likely outcome, but I'm grabbing the points with HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF BOOKIEKILLER on the Raiders.

I entered both the Circa Millions and the Super Contest out of Las Vegas, and I used the Raiders as one of my picks.

Las Vegas has not lived up to expectations whatsoever, entering just 2-7, including only 1-3 at home.

But the same thing can be said about the Cowboys, who are only a slightly better 3-5 overall, but an even worse 1-4 on the road.

Each team has had to deal with significant injuries throughout the year, and many other issues on both sides of the ball.

Las Vegas has no chance at making the playoffs playing in the tough AFC West, while Dallas sits in second in the NFC East, but looking way up at the 7-2 defending champs.

This is the first game between the teams since 2021, and the Raiders went on to win 36-33 in overtime. Dallas is 3-1 in the last four in this series, but just 1-2-1 against the spread.

Dallas comes out of its bye week, but with zero momentum after losing three of its last four. They most recently got manhandled by the Cardinals, falling 27-17 and turning the ball over three times. 

Dak Prescott has been decent, as he has 2,319 passing yards and a 17-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Overall, the Cowboys are averaging 29.2 points per game, but the issue has been on the defensive end, as they've been unable to stop anyone, conceding 30.8 PPG.

Despite losing last time out, the Raiders played one of their best games of the season in their 10-7 loss at Denver.

Geno Smith and the offense gained 188 yards against the tough Denver defense, but the Raiders only conceded 220 against a tough Broncos offense.

Smith has 1,844 passing yards and a poor 11-to-12 touchdown to interception ratio, as the 35-year-old pivot has had to play from behind consistently all year (and that's left him susceptible to throwing a lot more interceptions than we're accustomed to seeing him throw).

Las Vegas's issues have been on the offensive end, as it's averaging just 15.4 PPG. But Smith catches a huge break this week, finally, facing this horrid Cowboys' secondary.

The Raiders' strength, though, has come on the defensive end, conceding 24.4 PPG, including allowing 214.2 yards passing, which ranks 16th.

With nearly 70% of the money and bets on the visitors, and with that number continuing to rise as we head towards kick-off, this pick also really appeals to my contrarian side.

While the rest of the World goes one way, I'm going the other.

The play is on LAS VEGAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the Chiefs/Broncos OVER.

The Chiefs are favored here, somehow, but won't be able to sit back and wait for Bo Nix and the home side to make the first mistake.

With the visitors pushing the pace like I believe they win in an attempt to rest back control of the division and stay relevant, I'm expecting this total to fly well OVER the number before it's all said and done.

Look for the CHIEFS and the BRONCOS to go well OVER this total before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Hawks/Rams.

Two of the most surprising teams in the league collide for the first time this year. 

The Hawks and the Rams will also lay again on December 18th in Seattle. 

The story line for each side is their veteran quarterbacks, but the reason these teams have done so well has been because of their above-average defenses. 

The team that will come out on top in this one will be the one that protects the ball and wins the field position battle.

This number is high in my opinion, the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Jaguars.

The Chargers are 7-3 and off three straight wins, but I think they'll have their hands full with the 5-4 Jaguars, who have lost three of their last four, including last week's 36-29 setback at Houston.

LA comes in complacent finally I think and gets caught looking ahead to its bye week. The Jags have a favorable and manageable schedule the rest of the way, but an outright win here would be huge obviously.

That is the most likely outcome in my opinion, but in the end let's grab the points with JACKSONVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% AFC EAST TOY on the UNDER Jets/Patriots.

Both teams have been playing several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect Thursday's contest to be much more defensive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This is a really low number, but not nearly low enough in my estimation.

The Jets are 2-7 overall, including just 1-2 on the road, while New England is 8-2 overall, including 3-2 at home. 

New England comes in having won seven straight, most recently pulling away for a 28-23 win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

With an extremely favorable schedule to finish the season, Drake Maye and the Patriots are back in the driver's seat right now in the AFC East.

The 6-3 Buffalo Bills may have something to say about it before the season ends, but right now, things are looking extremely bright for New England's future.

The Jets are playing their best football of the season after back-to-back wins over the lowly Bengals and Browns. After beating Cincinnati 39-38 in a crazy come-from-behind performance, the Jets' defense looked a lot better in last week's 27-20 win over Cleveland.

But in their last two victories here, the Patriots have allowed a total of just 36 points.

I think it's interesting to note as well that the Patriots come into Week 11 as the biggest favorite on the board.

So, clearly, New England is the better team in this fight, and because they're at home, I believe they'll dictate the tempo. No need to run up the score on this putrid "on again, off again" Jets offense, though, as the game plan will be to escape this favorable game without any major injuries on the short week.

Perhaps surprisingly, though, the Jets are ahead of the Patriots this year as far as yards per play allowed and in red-zone defense. 

The Jets are also a lot better against the pass, which works against Maye here.

But the Patriots' secondary also catches a break here, facing Justin Fields and his inept passing attack. 

New England's weakness this year has surprisingly been on the defensive side, but I feel this is a great opportunity to "pad their stats" and get back on track on that side of the ball.

I look for field position and the men in the trenches to decide this one on Thursday night, and because of that, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF GOM on the Packers on the moneyline.

The Packers have a few concerning injuries, but I think they're the much hungrier team in this fight and I also believe that they catch the Eagles at a good time coming out of their bye week.

Philadelphia is 6-2 overall, including 3-1 on the road, while Green Bay is 5-2 overall, including 3-1 at home.

After consecutive losses, the Eagles are coming off two key NFC wins over Minnesota and New York. But both are kind of suspect victories in my opinion, as the Vikings were without JJ McCarthy at the time, with back-up Carson Wentz throwing no TDs and two INTs, and then two weeks ago they got revenge on New York from a loss two weeks prior, which was playing without star RB Cam Skateebo.

Not only is Green Bay looking to bounce back from a 16-13 loss to Carolina at home last week, but it's also out to avenge a 22-12 Wild-card loss last year. 

Jalen Hurts had two TD passes and Saquon Barkley rushed for 119 yards.

The Eagles control the NFC East, but the NFC North is much more difficult.

Philadelphia hasn't been as dominant this year, that's obvious for everyone watching, yet they still have a golden opportunity to win their division, and the NFC crown. 

Green Bay has a way of "playing up, or "playing down" to the level of its competition, and clearly last week's inexplicable loss to the Panthers was one of those times.

Or, perhaps, it was a letdown for Green Bay after winning three straight and getting the better of Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in Pittsburgh by a score of 35-25. 

And it also feels like it was a "look-ahead" spot as well for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to this game against the defending champs.

It was a classic "trap" game for Green Bay last weekend, but with the extra day off to recover this week, I think the hungrier home side is going to find a way to get the job done and bounce back with its overall performance without any issues.

It's hard to imagine the Eagles "looking past" the Packers, especially on the road, but with a game at home against the Lions up next, there's a possibility of that happening as well.

I think "home field" plays a big factor for Green Bay this weekend as well, so let's bypass the spread and just play the PACKERS on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONF TOM on the UNDER Ravens/Vikes.

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I think the conditions are now definitely right for much more of a defensive battle on Sunday between two non-conference opponents that are in need of a victory.

The Ravens are coming off back-to-back wins, last week they got back LaMar Jackson who threw for four touchdowns in a 28-6 win over the Bears.

Baltimore looks better offensively, but also defensively as well having conceded just 22 points combined in the two wins.

Minnesota is 4-4, but it got back QB JJ McCarthy, who was efficient in his team's 27-24 upset win at Detroit.

The Vikes' pass defense looked great on the road and should only be better at home this week.

Expect an intense battle to be decided by field position and the men in the trenches, and also look for this total to stay well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an AFC WEST TOM on the UNDER Raiders/Broncos.

We have an interesting AFC West matchup here on Thursday night, but as  primarily situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

This is obviously a really low number, but not nearly low enough in my estimation. 

Las Vegas is 2-6, including just 1-3 straight up and against the spread on the road.

Denver is 7-2, including 4-0 straight up at home and 2-2 against the spread. The Raiders have been decent at home, but really bad on the road.

They threw their best shot at Jacksonville at home last week and still came up short in the 30-29 OT loss. They went for it in OT to get the one-point victory, but Geno Smith came up short once again, and it would now clearly take a miracle for the Raiders to even make the playoffs.

In their four road games, they've scored a combined 43 points. And that includes a 31-0 shutout loss in their most recent divisional road game at Kansas City.

Now a double-digit underdog on the road against the hottest team in the league, I have a hard time seeing Smith and the Raiders having any sort of significant offensive production.

Denver is coming off a tight 18-15 road win at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog, and there's no reason not to think that the Broncos will be able to carry that defensive momentum over here, in my opinion. 

I also look at the Bronco's schedule of course when making my decision, and it doesn't take Biff Tannen to be able to predict that Denver is going to already be looking and planning ahead for its big home game against Kansas City on November 16th (the last time the Broncos played KC at home, was last January 5th, and Denver won 38-0). 

It's clearly the biggest game of the season so far from Denver, and it's almost impossible not to see the Broncos getting caught "looking ahead."

And so the game plan will be to control the clock, limit mistakes, and grind out a victory against this putrid Raiders team, and at the same time put the final nail in the coffin for their playoff aspirations this season.

But with a game plan like that, I'm not comfortable laying this larger spread, and that's why I really love this total.

When taking into account all the different situational factors I listed above, everything points to the UNDER as the correct call, in my opinion, for the total.

Good luck, NP

This is a MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Cards/Cowboys.

As being primarily a situational capper, I really love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. 

Two teams with high expectations at the start of the season, but who have failed to live up to them so far, collide on Monday.

Arizona is 2-5 SU and 1-2 SU on the road, but interestingly, the Cardinals are 3-0 ATS away from friendly confines.

The Cowboys are 3-4 SU overall, 2-0 SU at home, and 2-1 ATS in front of the home-town crowd as well this season.

This is a big game for both teams. 

The Cowboys are off a 44-24 loss at Denver, and have now seen the total go OVER in five straight. The public consensus sees the majority of bets and money anticipating another high-scoring affair, so this one definitely appeals to my contrarian side.

The last time these teams played was back on September 24th, 2023, in Arizona, and the Cardinals won 28-16.

With back-to-back divisional games against Seattle and San Francisco following this Monday night contest, the 2-5 Cardinals have their backs against the proverbial wall right now. 

They're off five-straight losses, but the one thing they have going for them is that they're coming out of their bye-week and will be a lot more prepared.

Dallas has its bye week next week, followed by a game at Las Vegas.

For the most part, I base my Over/Under picks, in every sport, on what I perceive to be great "situations."

I think this O/U line is now elevated, and the masses are way too fast to think that this will automatically be another shootout.

I say the conditions are now correct for more of a defensive battle like they had back in 2023, so my official MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NFC GOY on the Commanders.

It's a really big game for the Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. This is ALMOST a "do or die" scenario for the Commanders after three straight losses.

The Hawks are 3-0 on the road and they're off back-to-back wins, but they come out of their bye week flat-footed on the East Coast on Sunday afternoon in my opinion. 

They have two divisional contests on deck next and I think they're primed for a letdown here. Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS at home.

If you all you do is look at numbers to make your picks, then you're most likely taking a lot of public favorites. And playing on a of favorites.

When looking at all of the situational factors for each side leading into this one, clearly Washington comes in as the more motivated. It's off three straight losses, and it has another tough home game against the red-hot Lions next weekend. 

Sunday's game is "do or die" in my opinion and I look for the home side to play like it. Sprinkle a little on the ML as well, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can with WASHINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an AFC TOM on the UNDER Ravens/Dolphins.

These are two teams on the cusp of knowing what to do for the rest of the season; are they going to throw in the towel and start looking ahead to next season, or are they going to try and salvage it and make a serious push for a win streak, and then possible playoff position.

Baltimore is 2-5 overall, including 0-2 on the road, while Miami is 2-6 overall, including 1-2 at home.

The Ravens got back into the winner's circle in a 30-16 win at home over Chicago last weekend, while Miami destroyed Atlanta 34-10.

I think what was most impressive about their respective wins, was their solid play on both ends of the field, but especially on the defensive side.

Tua has been unbelievably inconsistent for the Dolphins this season, and with the Ravens getting Lamar Jackson for the first time in three games, I think we're going to see each side look to establish the run first, and throughout this game from start to finish. 

Each team is coming off an important win, making this Thursday night contest a pivotal one for both clubs.

Look for this extreme sense of competition to lend itself to an intense defensive affair, and for their combined total to fall well UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds. 

Good luck, NP

This is a MONDAY NIGHT TOM on the UNDER Commanders/Chiefs.

I think there are plenty of reasons to believe that the non-conference Monday Night game in Kansas City between the Commanders and the Chiefs will be a lot lower-scoring than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Commanders are huge dogs here, and without Jayden Daniels under center, I am going to steer clear of a side in this one. If Daniels WAS playing, I  know the line would be different, but I'd still be leaning heavily towards Washington.

Instead, though I'm focusing on the total, the bottom line is that I just can't see Marcus Mariota producing much offense here in this difficult road venue, facing a Chiefs' defense that's off a historic performance here last week.

Washington does have some good news in that wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel have both been cleared to play from the injury list. The bad news is that Daniels is out and Mariota is in.

Mariota is 1-2 so far this season, with 426 passing yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.

But he's been much better at home than on the road, as he's 20 of 37 for 219 yards and a 54.1 percent completion percentage, along with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Mariota was only sacked once at home with a 118.6 QB rating, compared to being sacked four times on the road with a 67.3 percent rating.

As mentioned, though, the Chiefs are coming off a complete beatdown of the Raiders on both sides of the ball, but more impressively on the defensive end, as they allowed 95 total yards and just three first downs across the whole game. It was their first regular-season shutout since 2011, and I absolutely believe that the unit can carry that momentum over here against a Washington team with its backup quarterback and trying to work in some key pieces that have been out with injury.

Overall, the Chiefs have held their opponents to 20 points or fewer in five of six games overall this season.

Additionally, I'll argue that if you look at the schedule, you'll figure that Andy Reid will already be looking ahead to next week's massively-hyped game in Buffalo (which is then followed by another tough game at Denver).

The bottom line here is that I don't expect the home side to run up the score, but I do expect it to do well defensively and to protect the ball. And of course with the game outright.

Washington will put up a fight, but long drives will end in field goals or turnovers. 

This number is high, so the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an AFC NON-DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR on the Browns.

Cleveland is 2-5 straight-up, including 0-3 straight-up and against-the-spread away from friendly confines. 

But Dillon Gabriel and the Browns are coming off a much-needed 31-6 win over Miami and I say they keep that momentum rolling this weekend in New England, against a Patriots team that I see coming in a bit complacent after four straight wins and covers, and with their bye week coming up next week.

It's a classic "trap" game in my opinion. 

I feel that a "letdown spot" (which I believe will occur after four straight wins and covers), combined with a "look-ahead" position (their bye-week), will lead Drake Maye and the Patriots to have a small mental letdown here.

Situationally speaking, I love the way this one sets up for the visitors.

Gabriel looked a lot more relaxed under center for Cleveland last week and running back Quinshon Judkins has been a spark overall for the Browns this season with 467 rushing yards and five touchdowns. 

Despite their 2-5 record, and having already moved on from veteran quarterback Joe Flacco to Gabriel, amazingly, the Browns have been competitive even in their losses. That's thanks to strong offensive role supporters as well as an above average defense that really hit its stride in last week's victory.

It's difficult to say too many negative things about the Patriots right now, as they've obviously exceeded everyone's expectations already this season.

Maye has a 12 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio, and they've failed to surrender more than 20 points since Week 3. 

But no team in the league remains on a constant upward trajectory from start to finish. There will be letdowns, both small and big. 

I say this is a great "spot" for the hungry BROWNS and so I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Vikings/Chargers.

These teams have been playing several higher-scoring games of late, but in my opinion, everything finally points to a lower-scoring battle here on the short week on Thursday night.

Minnesota is 3-3, and it's literally been trading wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread, since Week 1. 

Off a 28-22 loss at home to Philadelphia last week, will this pattern of winning and losing continue here in LA?

I'm not 100% sure that's the answer, and that's why I am targeting the total. 

The Chargers are now 4-3 after going 1-3 in their last four and 0-4 against the spread for bettors. 

LA has scored 53 points over its last two games, but it's conceded 65. 

It's a far cry from the 50 points it conceded over its first three games and going 3-0.

But I think this is a golden opportunity for this Chargers unit to return to form.

Both teams are desperate for a victory, and I'm anticipating a very tight defensive battle.

With their continued issues at the quarterback position, the defense has, in fact, been a strength for Minnesota this year, and Brian Flores' unit is going to be able to heavily blitz a Chargers' offensive line that's been decimated by injuries this season. Expect multiple sacks from the visiting side in this one.

Justin Herbert has been running for his life over the last four weeks, but here's a great opportunity for the defensive unit to return to form and take advantage against a pretty immobile Carson Wentz.

I think we'll see these teams move the ball and then fail to close drives with major scores. 

This one is going to be decided by field position, the men in the trenches, and the team that protects the ball the best.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a MNF GOY on the Texans.

There are TWO Monday Night Football games on Monday, and this is the later one.

The Texans invade the Emerald City, and while I think they have a legitimate shot at leaving town with an outright victory, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Houston is looking for a third straight win after dropping its first three games. Over those last two games, though, the Texans have scored 70 points and allowed ten. That includes a 44-10 victory at Baltimore two weeks ago.

Now rested and prepared to take on the Hawks, I think CJ Stroud and the visiting side will, at the very least, do enough to earn the comfortable cover.

Last week, the Texans put up some incredible numbers, including a 417-207 edge in total offense, while at the same time, picking 27 first downs, while only conceding 12.

Texas also forced three turnovers, while committing none of its own.

On the season, Houston averages 198.2 yards per game passing and 116.2 yards per game on the ground. Those stats have gone up significantly over the last two games, though, and I think we'll see further progression here in the Pacific Northwest.

Overall, Houston averages 21.6 PPG, while conceding just 12.2, which is No. 1 in the league. 

Seattle is 4-2 after a 20-12 win at Jacksonville last weekend. The week prior to that, they fell 38-35 here to Tampa Bay as 3.5-point favorites.

The Hawks, though, were a bit "lucky" to win last week, they did have the 346-273 edge in total offense, but they gave up 17 first downs, while only producing 13 of their own.

Seattle averages 252.2 yards per game through the air and 104.2 yards on the ground. Overall ,they average 27.7 PPG, while allowing 19.5. I think Sam Darnold has exceeded expectations so far as Seattle's starting quarterback, but now he faces the best defense he's seen all season.

If looking at Stroud's numbers as a whole this season, they look pretty pedestrian. If you throw out the first three games and look at just the last two, though, he's been arguably the best quarterback in the league.

I think he will progress further on Monday night 

The Hawks have been relying too heavily on their offense to bail them out, but I look for Darnold to take a big step back on Monday night.

While I think he outright win is the most likely outcome, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Broncos.

I played on Denver in its 21-17 win over the Eagles, but I played against the Broncos in their 13-11 win over the Jets as 7-point favs across the pond last weekend.

But I think Bo Nix and the Broncos bounce back at home here against the over-hyped Giants.

I was on New York last Thursday night in its upset win over the Eagles, but with the rematch in Philadelphia next week, I think the Giants finally stumble here and get caught looking ahead.

So I'm laying the points in this one with the Broncos and expecting a lop-sided blowout, with New York's rookie offensive duo of rookie's Jaxson Dart and running back Cam Skattebo finally coming back down to Earth in this difficult road venue.

The play is on DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR on the Bengals.

Last year, everyone was quick to say that Aaron Rodgers' career was over after the disaster in New York, and now everyone is cautiously jumping back on the bandwagon after the Steelers have started 4-1.

Pittsburgh most recently got the better of Cleveland 23-9, but will it get caught looking past its opponent to its home game against Green Bay the following week?

Probably not, but I do think Pittsburgh could easily come in complacent and have a letdown here on the short week after three straight wins and covers.

The Bengals, who are 2-4, lost Joe Burrow and they made a move to get Joe Flacco to fill in last week, and Cincinnati came up short in its 27-18 loss at Green Bay.

Flacco looked better as the game progressed, though, and the veteran should be slightly better this week at home. Overall, I thought Cincinnati looked great defensively against Green Bay and only caved late.

I believe one of the things that attracted Rodgers to sign with Pittsburgh was its schedule, as so far it hasn't faced anyone of note. Its one loss came on the road at Seattle in Week 2 as a 4-point favorite. 

Now it's an even bigger favorite here against a team that essentially needs a win this week to hope to have any shot at making the playoffs when/if Joe Burrow ever does or can return.

Pittsburgh does enter this Thursday night game with a couple of significant injuries to report as well, as special-teams expert Miles Killebrew is  out after a knee injury in the Week 6 win over the Browns, while receiver Calvin Austin III didn’t practice and remains doubtful.

Rodgers has done a lot better than most thought he would, but regression feels imminent at any point for the veteran to me. I think that will finally happen this weekend.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a BEST BET on the Bears.

The Bears are 2-2, both straight up and against the spread.

They started the season off against two pretty good teams, falling 27-24 at home to Minnesota as 1-point dogs, and then 52-21 at Detroit the following week as 6.5-point underdogs. 

Caleb Williams and company, though, have looked a lot better over the last two weeks, albeit over "lesser" competition, beating Dallas at home 31-14 as a 1-point dog, and then last week holding on in Vegas for the 25-24 win as a 1.5-point dog.

The Bears haven't been favored all year, and they're not favored here either. 

But maybe they should be? The Commanders are 3-2, but they've been trading good performances with bad since Week 1. Some of that has to do with injuries.

I had a play on Washington in its 27-10 win at the Chargers last week. The weekend before that, though, they lost 34-27 at Atlanta as 2.5-point favorites.

Scheduling is something that I take into serious consideration in every sport, but especially the NFL, and especially during the regular season.

Off the upset road win as a dog and with a big divisional road game at Dallas next weekend, I believe it sets up as a "trap" for Jayden Daniels and the home side.

The Bears, though, enter off their bye week and off two straight confidence-building victories.

With an upcoming game against the struggling Saints, Chicago now has a legitimate shot at winning four in a row.

I think these teams are evenly matched and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on CHICAGO.

Good luck, NP

This is an ATS MA$$ACRE on the Miami Dolphins.

I like Tua at home here.

The Fish are 1-4 and are trying to catch New England, which is 3-2 after its big win over Buffalo last week.

The Chargers are 3-2 after back-to-back losses.

LA looked bad in the 27-10 home loss to Washington last week and I don't think it should be favored on the road here.

I think an outright is possible, but give me the DOLPHINS and the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a PUNISHER play on the Jaguars.

Both teams come in hot, Jacksonville hotter though. And it's playing at home.

Despite Seattle being 2-0 on the road, we now see some serious cracks in the armor after that 38-35 home loss last week.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have won four straight, including three straight over quality teams, most recently getting the better of Kansas City 31-28.

I like the Jags to keep the momentum and confidence rolling at home, and I think the Hawks defense takes another step back this week on the road.

The play is on JACKSONVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the New Orleans Saints.

This is a great situational play in my opinion.

I had a play on the Saints last week in their first win of the season 26-14 over the Giants, and I also had a play on the Patriots last week in their 23-20 win at Buffalo.

New England is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road, but in each of those road games, it was the underdog. 

Now Drake Maye is off a big win over a division rival and I this is primed for a letdown as a sizeable favorite on the road.

I'm grabbing the points here with NEW ORLEANS.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Jets.

The Jets are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. So is this the weekend that Justin Fields and company get back on track and finally punch one into the win column?

I had a play on Denver in its 21-17 win at Philadelphia, but a letdown now seems imminent on the road here as a big favorite against a desperate New York side. The Jets are already out of the playoffs, but the organization is playing for pride now.

Off the big upset win over the defending champs and with two straight home games against the Giants and Cowboys up next, I say Denver takes a small step back this weekend.

Last year Denver won 10-9 in this game. I expect another tight battle here as well.

I'm grabbing the points with the JETS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOY on the OVER Eagles/Giants.

These teams have struggled to put points on the board at times this year, but I don't expect that to be the case on Thursday night.

The Eagles are 4-1 overall, including 2-0 on the road, while New York is 1-4 overall, including 1-1 at home. 

Jaxson Dart beat the Chargers 21-18 at home in his debut in Week 4, but then the Giants fell flat in last week's 24-16 loss at the Saints.

The road ahead doesn't get any easier for New York, with consecutive road games at Denver and Philly again, before a home game against the 49ers, which essentially makes this a "must win" for the Giants. 

They're more than a touchdown underdog at home to the defending champs though. 

Philadelphia was rolling along looking unbeatable until last week's 21-17 "hiccup" at home to the Broncos.

Previous to that Jalen Hurts and company had posted 64 points over two victories. 

The Giants' defense has been their strong point this year, but off the short week and facing an Eagles offense that's looking to atone for their home loss and take out their frustrations, I'm expecting a faster-paced overall affair to lead to offensive production on the field of play.

So I like the way this one sets up to a be a high-scoring OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Chiefs/Jaguars.

If watched me on the podcast I host on Saturday, then you'd have gotten my Circa Millions and Super Contest picks. I have a play on the Jaguars as the final pick of the ten plays I had to release.

But I also like the UNDER in this one as well for a couple of different key reasons. 

The Chiefs are 2-2 and the Jags are 3-1. 

After back-to-back losses, the Chiefs are off back-to-back wins. But let's not be too quick to all jump back on the Chiefs' bandwagon. They lost to both the Chargers and Eagles, but then got back on track against two struggling teams in the Giants and the Ravens.

The Jags are 3-1 after a tight victory at San Francisco last weekend and I think they're vastly undervalued here at home considering how well they're playing, especially defensively.

Aside from the 31-27 loss at Cincinnati, the Jaguars have looked sharp on the defensive end, especially at home where they've conceded a total of 20 points in two victories.

The Chiefs exploded for a 37-20 against a toothless Ravens secondary last weekend, but previous to Patrick Mahomes offense had been held to a high off 22 points (in the 22-9 victory at the Giants).

But where they've been consistently inconsistent on the offensive end this year, they've been at their best on the defensive side of the ball, since the 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil, they've conceded 46 and gone 2-1. 

The last time Kansas City was here, the Chiefs was 17-9 on September 17th, 2023. Fast forward two years and once again we have two underrated defenses that will "steal the show" in my opinion, and that's why I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

The Chiefs are 2-2 and the Jags are 3-1. 

After back-to-back losses, the Chiefs are off back-to-back wins. But let's not be too quick to all jump back on the Chiefs' bandwagon. They lost to both the Chargers and Eagles, but then got back on track against two struggling teams in the Giants and the Ravens.

The Jags are 3-1 after a tight victory at San Francisco last weekend and I think they're vastly undervalued here at home considering how well they're playing, especially defensively.

With the majority going one way, I'm going the other. Grab the points with JACKSONVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the New England Patriots.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

I was on the Patriots in their 42-13 win over Carolina last weekend. Drake Maye looked a lot better.

Do I think he's as good as Josh Allen?

Of course not. 

The Bills are 4-0 SU, but 2-2 ATS. Those last two ATS losses have come over the last two weeks, and I think Buffalo continues to be overvalued this week as well.

Grab the points with NEW ENGLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Washington Commanders.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

Sunday's loss against the Giants (I had New York), exposed some vulnerabilities for the Chargers, and off their first loss of the year, I think another letdown here is in the cards against their hungry non-conference opponent. 

Whether it's Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota under center, I think Washington has a legit shot at winning this one outright.

That said, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with the COMMANDERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Tampa Bay Bucs.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

After three straight victories, I think the Hawks take a step back here. I had them in their 23-20 win at Arizona last Thursday. 

Tampa Bay its off its first loss of the year, as Baker Mayfield's late rally came up short in their 31-25 home loss to Philadelphia. 

The Bucs are 2-0 on the road already this year and other than their loss against the defending champs, they've been in control of every other game. I think an outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points with TAMPA.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on Dallas Cowboys.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

Despite playing to a 40-40 tie at home to Green Bay last week, I thought Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense looked good last, and overall it has this year as well, whether CD Lamb has been in the line-up or not.

Of course the Dallas defense has been terrible, but that unit catches a break facing the putrid Jets, who are 0-4 and basically already planning and looking ahead to next season.

The play is on DALLAS.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the New Orleans Saints.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

I had a play on the Saints last weekend, and while they lost for a fourth straight time to open the season, they did go on to cover with the massive spread.

And now they're favored here at home and I think that Spencer Rattler and company will find a way to get the job done against the overhyped Jaxson Dart, making his first start on the road.

Dart didn't look great in the win over the Chargers and I think is getting too much respect here on the road. Malik Nabers is also out for New York and its Rattlers big opportunity to finally put one in the win column at home. It's now or never essentially.

I like the SAINTS.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Miami Dolphins.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

A couple of 1-3 teams here, but I think that Miami looks like the more prepared team comin into this game and so I think Tua and company will find a way to get the job done against the putrid Panthers.

Carolina struggles to stop both the pass and run and its inconsistent offense, which lost 42-13 at New England, after posting a 30-0 win over Atlanta.

Look for Tua to will his team to a solid victory on the road in this non-conference matchup.

The play is on MIAMI.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on Las Vegas.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

Daniel Jones and the Colts are primed for a letdown here I think after they came up short in at the Rams last week. After three straight wins, I think they suffer another letdown here.

Las Vegas though has hit the panic button. One bright spot was Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty, who broke out last week.

Coming into the season, not many would tell you that Jones was better than Raiders' QB Geno Smith, and I'm still not sure that's the case.

This feels like a trap for me, as the Colts are primed for further regression following the unrealistic start.

No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points with the RAIDERS.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Denver Broncos.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

At some point the Eagles are going to stumble and get caught looking ahead, and I think it's this week at home to their non-conference rival.

It's a "trap" spot for the home side, with a division game at New York on Thursday night.

Conversely, Denver got back on track after a two-game slide with a 28-3 win at home over Cincinnati. Bo Nix and the Broncos have been extremely competitive in each of their two road losses, falling 29-28 at Indianapolis and then 23-20 at the Chargers.

Grab the points with DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Minnesota Vikings.

With dozens of picks to write this weekend, I'll be very succinct with my analysis for both five-game Sunday NFL reports.

I think the Vikes are going to be more prepared here in this difficult "across the pond" game. The Vikes re 2-2 after a 24-21 loss to Pittsburgh last week (I had the Steelers in that one), while the Browns are 1-3 after a 34-10 loss at Detroit. I had Cleveland in that one, my only loss last Sunday.

Carson Wentz is 44 of 66 for 523 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in two games for the Vikes and I definitely like him over Cleveland's Dillon Gabriel, as the Browns have made the move away from the struggling Joe Flacco.

Look for Wentz to do more than enough to earn the win and cover in London; the play is on MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER 49ers/Rams.

A battle for first place in the NFC West happens on Thursday night, as the 3-1 San Francisco 49ers are on the road at the 3-1 LA Rams. With injury concerns to Brock Purdy once again, the 49ers will once again be leading on Christian McCaffrey on the offensive end, and also their defense to once again step up and carry the load.

Rams quarterback Matt Stafford is starting to resemble his old self, but it's been the Rams defensive play that has impressed me the most this season. LA has already faced some pretty good teams, with its only loss coming at Philadelphia. Last week they held the Colts to just 20 points, and I think San Francisco, with likely Mac Jones under center, will have difficult reaching that mark.

But this spread scares me as well. I can see the 49ers sneaking in through the back door down the stretch on a late field goal. And that's what I'm instead focusing on the total.

Look for field position and the men in the trenches to decide this one.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Broncos.

I have the Broncos on Monday night, which isn't my typical pick, as there is significantly more money on the home side in this matchup. But, the bottom line here is that I just can't see the Bengals doing much of anything here on the road, as they're already 0-2 against the spread on the road this season. An now Jake Browning is the man for the next couple months in Cincinnati and I don't think he'll be up to get the job done at Mile High. So I'm laying the points with Bo Nix and the Broncos on Monday.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS play on the UNDER Jets/Dolphins.

The Jets have Justin Fields back under center for this game on Monday night, and the Dolphins have Tua,but the winner of this game between 0-3 teams is going to be the one that protects the football and limits misteaks n my opinion.

In a contest that I see being decided by field position and the men in the trenches, I'm on the UNDER in this one. 

This is the battle to climb out of the cellar in the AFC East, as each team is 0-3. The odds of even making the playoffs at 0-3 are huge, but at 0-4 they're astronomical. So, essentially, the loser will be already looking ahead to next season by as early as next week.

Aaron Glenn is in his first year in New York, so has some lee-way, but 4th-year Dolphins' coach Mike McDaniel isn't expected to be around much longer if there isn't a pretty big response moving forward.

Last week the Fish fell 31-21 at Orchard Park, with the Buffalo defense holding Tua in check throughout, conceding only 146 yards passing.

With Justin Field sidelined last week with concussion, Tyrod Taylor stepped in and New York would fall 29-27 at Tampa. 

Taylor led a furious fourth-quarter rally, but came up short. In Fields most recent game against Buffalo before injury, he was 3 of 11 for 27 yards passing, while getting sacked two times, while also rushing for 49 yards. 

Tua had two touchdowns in last week's loss for Miami, but did finish with just the 146 yards. 

Tua continues to regress, so the Jets defense catches a break. And so does Miami's defensive unit, facing likely a downgrade at quarterback from backup Taylor back to starter Fields.

As I said off the top, I see this game being decided by field position and the men in the trenches, so as far as the total is concerned, I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Cowboys.

I really like this play. Green Bay looked great home in Week's 1 and 2, but extremely mediocre and vulnerable in last week's 13-10 loss at Cleveland as a 7.5 point favorites. Now here the Packers are again on the road as big favorites, facing a desperate home side at a cross-roads and hungry for an upset. After this the Packers have their bye-week as well, so I think it's a bit of a trap here for the visitors and this line is too large. Guys, sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well, but the official call is to grab the points with the home side.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Chiefs.

I'm on the Chiefs and the points. It's amazing to me that KC is the underdog here at home, but here we are guys. Times have changed, or at least that's what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I don't think it's quite time to hit the panic button if you're a Chiefs' fan though, as you still have Patrick Mahomes, and if you get by 1-2 Baltimore, then you're basically back on track. I'm not sure if Baltimore really is the better team: I don't think it has the better quarterback, and I certainly don't think that Baltimore has a better defense, so far conceding 95 points over its 1-2 start. The Chiefs have looked a lot better defensively and they're coming off a much-needed 22-9 road win at the Giants. I think KC is a live dog this weekend, but I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Falcons on the moneyline.

Atlanta was competitive in its Week 1 loss at home to Tampa Bay, as that one really could have gone either way. It looked good in its 22-6 win at Minnesota in Week 2, but then it looked terrible in last week's 30-0 loss at Carolina against a desperate Panthers team looking to avoid the 0-3 hole. But now the Falcons are looking to avoid a 1-3 hole, while Washington enters off a 41-24 win at home over a suspect Las Vegas team. Note as well that the Commanders only other win came at home in Week 1 over the putrid Giants, as in their one road game they fell 27-18 at Green Bay. And I now think they'll be mediocre at best here as well in Atlanta. Play the Falcons on the moneyline.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Giants.

The 0-3 Giants have made the switch at quarterback to Jaxson Dart and I think he'll be a lot more effective distributing the ball around the field for the home side than Russell Wilson did (I mean, almost anyone could do a better job than Wilson). The Chargers are 3-0 SU/ATS and it's difficult to really say too many negative things about them right now, but I just think that a complacent visiting side with a home game against Washington next weekend is going to be caught a bit flat-footed here against the desperate Giants. So I'm grabbing the points in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Saints.

I just think this is a good spot for the desperate Saints to, at the very least, post a solid cover with all the points they're getting in this one. Buffalo has so far looked great, but a letdown feels imminent here to me, especially with a game at home against division rival New England up next. I think the home side could be caught a bit complacent, so I like Spencer Rattler and company to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. 

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Browns.

I've taken Browns every week so far and gone 2-1 against the spread. But, once again they're getting little respect here from the oddsmakers in my opinion. They were 13.5 point dogs at Baltimore and lost 41-17, but I see a solid back door cover in the cards today. Detroit has bounced back from its Week 1 loss at Green Bay to win and cover in two straight, but the Browns are starting to look better on both sides of the ball.as well (obviously a lot better defensively than offensively). Detroit lost to Green Bay and the Browns just beat the Packers. I say this one will be way more competitive than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Patriots.

I'm going to take the Patriots at home this weekend. Carolina is 0-2 on the road this year, but it managed a 30-0 win over the Falcons last week. That said, the Panthers have clearly struggled with consistency on the road in both losses. New England is 1-2 and it has an extremely difficult divisional battle at the Bills next weekend, which essentially makes this a "MUST WIN" for the home side. And so I like Drake Maye and company to pull away for the comfortable win and cover in this one in front of the home town crowd.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Texans.

A couple of 0-3 teams here. The likelihood of either making a miraculous run and making the playoffs is already pretty near impossible, but someone has to finally come out on top here. And in my opinion, this one favors the home side. CJ Stroud now faces a Titans defense that's gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on allowing 20 points in Week 1 to Denver, 33 points to LA in Week 2 and then 41 to Danny Dimes and the Colts last weekend. Conversely, the one bright spot for Houston this year has been its defensive play, with 20 being the most points its given up so far in its losses, allowing an average of 17 PPG to this point. Lay the points and expect the hungry home side to pull away for a comfortable win and cover.

Good luck, NP

This is a play on the Steelers.

This is an early morning game, because it's in Dublin, Ireland. The Steelers have looked pretty solid overall I'd say with Aaron Rodgers and he's 2-0 on the road so far, last week winning 21-14 at New England. I think his overall experience will come into play here in this international game. Carson Wentz looked good at home over the Bungles last weekend, but I think will struggle to put together back-to-back fantastic outings. And without Wentz carrying the load this weekend, I look for the Steelers to, at the very least, cover with the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST GOW on the Seahawks.

Both teams are 2-1. Both have losses to the same team, division rival San Francisco. Each was close, and it could have gone either way for both the Hawks and the Cards.

Regardless, it's a big early-season divisional matchup and one that favors the visitors in my opinion.

Both also have victories over the same team, as Arizona barely held on for the 20-13 win at New Orleans to open the season, and Seattle enters off a 44-13 home win over the Saints. 

What Sam Darnold is doing in Seattle is amazing in my opinion.

And I'm still not entirely convinced about Kyler Murray and the Cardinal offense.

Look for SEATTLE to continue its hot run on Thursday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Lions/Ravens.

While the majority go one way with this total, I'm going the other.

It would be very simplistic to look at Baltimore's offensive results over the first two weeks (41-40 loss at Buffalo in Week 1 and a 41-17 victory at home over Cleveland in Week 12), and automatically assume that we're once again in store for a high-scoring offensive "shootout" here on Monday night, but I now actually feel that the value has swung the other way finally as far as the total is concerned for a few different key situational reasons.

1. Baltimore's Dominant Ground Game Limits Possessions - The Ravens' elite rushing attack, led by Derrick Henry averaging 96 yards per game, can control the clock and limit Detroit's offensive opportunities, reducing total plays and keeping the score under 53.

2. Scheduling - with a game at Kansas City after this, Baltimore will already be looking ahead and planning for that contest. Detroit lost 27-13 at Green Bay in Week 1, and then rebounded with a big 52-21 home victory over the Bears last week. Now back out on the road, regression is once again expected.

3. Ravens are a top-10 pass defense last year - Jared Goff had a big bounce back performance at home, but struggled on the road in Week 1. But last year Baltimore finished 19th in yards per attempt allowed, 15th in passer rating allowed, 14th in dropback EPA and 8th in dropback success rate. They were also second in sacks last season, after finishing first the year before that.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOM on the Giants.

I'm taking the Giants and the points. Both of these teams are 0-2 and it's hard to imagine the Chiefs falling to 0-3, but they look terrible. Their offensive line has issues and the offense overall looks one-dimensional. And now they face a desperate home side that just put up 37 points in the overtime loss to the Cowboys. In a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points with NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1* play on the Chicago Bears.

I'm going full on contrarian with this pick, but this is another one that falls into that system that I mentioned in the other two plays of this package. Chicago is 0-2 SU and ATS and it's desperate here this week obviously. Now, I don't love Caleb Williams or anything, but I definitely don't trust this terrible Cowboys defense on the road. The Cowboys were lucky to come away with the 40-37 OT win over the Giants last week, as their defense is terrible and its now or never for Chicago, so I'm taking the BEARS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1* play on the Saints.

So here's another one of those 0-2 teams that is now a dog here in Week 3 (note that NFL teams that are 0-2 and are dogs in Week 3 have gone 37-17 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI since 2017.) The odds are pretty astronomical for any team to even make the playoffs after starting 0-3, and so Spencer Rattler and the Saints will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. New Orleans is getting ready to play its third straight NFC West team, falling 20-13 at home to Arizona and then 26-21 to San Francisco. The Hawks lost to the 49ers in Week 1 and then bounced back with a 31-17 win at Pittsburgh. But with a Thursday night short week game at Arizona coming up, Seattle could be caught looking ahead here, so I'm grabbing the points with the desperate SAINTS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1* play on the Titans.

The Colts are 2-0 SU and ATS with big wins over Miami and Denver, but now Daniel Jones and company are taking on another 0-2 team in the Titans. Tennessee is 1-1 against the spread, but the TITANS hit the road for three straight after this, and that really does essentially make this a do or die game for Cam Ward and company (note  that NFL teams that are 0-2 and are dogs in Week 3 have gone 37-17 ATS (69%) with a 32% ROI since 2017.) 

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% AFC EAST GOM on the Dolphins.

The Bills' offense appears to be firing on all cylinders to open the season, but the defense is questionable.

I think a desperate Tua and the visiting Dolphins, who are 0-2 SU/ATS, will be giving their 100% best shot here, as teams that start the season 0-3 have like a 90% chance of not even making the Playoffs. 

It's a really high percentage, and it would be a really deep hole for the Fish to try and climb out of. This is a do-or-die game here in Buffalo.

Will that actually lead to a win?

Probably not, but I do think sprinkling a little on the ML is worth a shot as well.

Either way, I think it's hard to get a proper read on the Bills quite yet. They were "lucky" to come from behind to knock off the Ravens, and their 30-10 win at the Jets has to be taken with a "grain of salt" as well. Cmon...it's the Jets!

Miami is on the ropes, but I think it has more than enough fight in it and more than enough points afforded to it by the oddsmakers to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Grab the points, the play is on MIAMI.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NON-CONF TOM on the OVER Bucs/Texans.

Tampa Bay's offense finished averaging 29.5 points per game in 2024, and Baker Mayfield and the Bucs posted 23 in their 2025 season-opening win at Atlanta. Mayfield threw for 167 yards and three touchdowns and rookie Emeka Edbuka had 67 receiving yards and two touchdowns. 

It was a balanced overall offensive attack, with the ground game posting 101 yards in Week 1.

Houston's secondary struggled in its 14-9 loss to the Rams, as the secondary would conceded 244 passing yards in the setback. Mayfield is going to have opportunities to move the ball through the air.

CJ Stroud and the Houston offense only posted the nine points, but he was under constant pressure, with seven QB hits and three sacks. 

The Bucs gave up 20 points and 358 totals yards in Week 1, and I think that Stroud can bounce back here at home against this weaker secondary.

The last time these teams played here was back in 2023 and the final score was 39-37 for the Texans. 

I don't think that they'll combine to score 76 points this time around, but I do expect another competitive, and higher-scoring shootout.

This number is low, the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% ATS BLOOD-BATH on Atlanta.

I like the Falcons to cover the spread against the Vikings due to Michael Penix Jr.'s sharp Week 1 debut (298 yards, 1 TD), and I think he's just better than J.J. McCarthy, who is still really inexperienced here in his second start. 

One my losers last week was the Falcons loss against Tampa Bay. But there were a lot of positives that the Falcons can draw from that setback.

Atlanta's potent offense (Bijan Robinson, Drake London) I think will get the better of Minnesota's secondary vulnerabilities and while I think an outright win is a possibility, I'm grabbing the points here with Atlanta.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% BOOKIEKILLER on the Colts.

Daniel Jones was great in Week 1, throwing for 272 yards and rushing for two scores in a 33-8 rout of Miami, showcasing that perhaps it really was the system he was working under in New York that was holding him back. I had the Colts last weekend and I like them again here.

Despite secondary injuries, Indy's defense forced three turnovers. 

Bo Nix's three Week 1 turnovers against the Titans signal vulnerability, so I like the COLTS and the points in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on the Tennessee Titans.

I think the Tennessee Titans, as home underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams offer really good value this weekend.

The Titans have a tough defense, and QB Cam Ward continues to progress. 

After holding Denver to 317 yards in a near-upset loss, Tennessee will benefit playing at Nissan Stadium. 

The Rams' cross-country travel and rusty offense (14 points in Week 1) make them prime for a letdown here in my opinion, so I'm grabbing the points with the Titans!

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on the Seattle Seahawks.

Despite a lackluster offensive showing in Week 1, Seattle’s defense, which pressured Brock Purdy eight times, can exploit Aaron Rodgers’ aversion to collapsing pockets. 

Aaron Rodgers had something personal to prove against his former team, but a predictable letdown really does feel imminent here to me after that emotional shootout win. 

Scheduling wise as well, everything also points to a letdown, now facing a non-conference opponent and with a game at New England next weekend.

I smell an outright upset for Sam Darnold and the visitors, but I'm grabbing the points with the SEAHAWKS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on the New York Jets.

Despite Buffalo's comeback win in Week 1, its defense struggled, allowing 433 yards. 

The Jets, led by Justin Fields' dual-threat performance (218 passing, 48 rushing yards, 3 TDs), showed offensive promise even in the 34-32 loss to the Steelers. 

I think NEW YORK builds off that performance and can take advantage of a shaky Buffalo defense.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on the Cleveland Browns.

Despite a Week 1 loss, Cleveland's defense was able to limit Cincinnati and Joe Burrow.

Joe Flacco's 290-yard performance indicates that the veteran still has gas left in the tank. 

Baltimore's defense struggled, allowing 497 yards to Buffalo, and its emotional Week 1 collapse may linger, making Cleveland a strong bet to keep this game close.

Good luck, NP

This is a 1% play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Both teams are coming off wins, but I think the Jags looked better as they easily dominated Carolina 26-10.

Jacksonville’s dominant Week 1 rushing attack, with Travis Etienne’s 143 yards, is going to be able to take advantage of Cincinnati’s weaker run defense. 

Trevor Lawrence I think looked better than Joe Burrow in Week 1, as the Cincinnati pivot finished with 113 yards passing.

I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, but in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points with the JAGUARS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NFC NORTH TOM on the OVER Commanders/Packers.

Both teams won their respective openers, and each saw the total go UNDER the posted number.

But now, on the short week, I'm expecting these defenses on each side to take a step back, and for these high-powered offenses to take "center stage!"

Green Bay was excellent on both sides of the ball in its 27-13 win over Detroit. I think Jordan Love and the Packers will, at the very least, match their offensive output from Week 1, but I believe that Green Bay will have a much harder time containing dynamic Washington quarterback Jaden Daniels and the rest of the Commanders, who also dominated through every phase in their 21-6 victory over the Giants.

With each side having been able to now get a firm read and make some adjustments, I believe these offenses will benefit the most.

This number is a bit low in my opinion, so the play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP