Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-10-19 | Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
8* Baylor (9:00 ET): Butler (9-0) is one of eight unbeatens still standing, but tonight the Bulldogs are facing arguably their toughest test to date. They head down to Waco to face a 7-1 Baylor team that just knocked off another previously unbeaten team (Arizona) on Saturday. For Butler, this game comes on the heels of a hard fought home win over Florida. That win extended the nation's longest non-conference home win streak to 56 games. But the Bulldogs are just 6-17 SU their L23 on the road. I'm going to lay the points here. A number of unbeatens fell on Saturday and soon enough there will be none left. For Butler, this just seems like the spot. Baylor has lost only once (by 3 at Washington) and comes in on their own six-game win streak, which includes wins over Villanova and Arizona. The most impressive thing about this Bears team is that they are allowing just 33.2% shooting at home, including 22.1% from three-point range. So for the first time all season, you can look for Butler to struggle to score tonight. Villanova is the only Baylor opponent to top 67 pts thus far. Butler hasn't let any opponent score more than 67 this season. However, the three times they have played away from home, they've allowed opponents to shoot 46.7%. Baylor is one of the few teams in the country not struggling with the new three-point distance as they're currently making 37.8% from behind the arc. Over the last three seasons, Butler has never won a game in which it was a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. That won't change here. 8* Baylor | |||||||
12-09-19 | Columbia +11.5 v. Duquesne | Top | 54-90 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Since Saturday, the list of unbeaten teams has fallen from 16 to 8 w/ DePaul being the latest victim. Of the eight remaining unbeatens, we have Duquesne rated the weakest. The Dukes are in action Monday, hosting Columbia. The Dukes have been favored in all seven games so far, as they are tonight, but this is a team that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency. No other unbeaten ranks lower than 78th in that category. Columbia is just 3-7. This is the second time in the last three games that they are facing an unbeaten foe. Last Monday it was Delaware. They lost by eight to the Blue Hens, who have since tasted defeat for the first time. On Friday, the Lions lost by two at Bryant as they turned it over in the final seconds, which led to the game winning basket. Incredibly, that was Columbia’s third loss by exactly two points already this year. I feel they are better than their record. Will the Ivy League contingent pull the outright upset here? Not sure. But it’s definitely worth a try plus the points. They’ve faced a tougher schedule than Duquesne. I mentioned earlier that the Dukes have been favored in every game. Well, they are just 3-4 ATS including 0-2 ATS when laying double digits. 10* Columbia | |||||||
12-08-19 | Liberty v. Grand Canyon +9.5 | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* Grand Canyon (6:30 ET): What would your reaction be if I told you that Liberty is the team w/ the best SU record in the country? You'd probably be surprised, right? Well, it's the case as the Flames were the first team in the country to get to 10 wins w/o a loss. Tonight they put that unblemished mark on the line against Grand Canyon University. Yesterday saw FIVE unbeatens fall in College Hoops, leaving us w/ just nine left. My view is a couple more are likely to fall this week, this Liberty team being one of them. Take the points here. Looking at Liberty's 10-0 SU record, they've been favored eight times and played two non-board teams. So them being unbeaten was actually expected from the oddsmakers' perspective. The Flames have yet to play anyone of any real substance and their last two opponents - Kentucky Xian and Trinity Baptist - hardly even qualify as real College Basketball teams. While they won those two games by a combined 105 pts, not all the news was good. Guard Caleb Homesley, who is second on the team in scoring and first in assists, suffered a hamstring injury. He may not be able to go tonight. Grand Canyon is just 4-6, but they've stepped up and taken on some tougher teams like Illinois and San Diego State. Earlier this week, the Antelopes earned a 78-67 OT win over Mt St Mary's here at home. This is a holiday tournament w/ GCU as the host, so there's no better way to make an impact than by knocking off one of the nine unbeatens left in College Hoops. I'm just not a believer in Liberty's ability to remain unbeaten. 10* Grand Canyon | |||||||
12-07-19 | Arkansas v. Western Kentucky OVER 137 | Top | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Arkansas/Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): Arkansas has two perfect streaks going coming into tonight's game w/ WKU. They are 8-0 straight up and also 8-0 Under to start the season. The former streak is their best start since the 1997-98 season when they were still only a couple years removed from winning the National Championship. But the latter streak is what we're concerned with here as no team has gone Under more w/o an Over this season. After last night, there are only four teams in the country that have not gone Over or at least pushed on the total. This will be the second time the Razorbacks have left campus this year. The first was a 62-61 win over Georgia Tech last week where they did not cover as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sound familiar? After failing to cover that game, the Hogs have gone 0-2 ATS since as they won close against both Northern Kentucky and Austin Peay in Fayatteville. While they are allowing only 61 PPG so far, that number will be severely challenged here by a Western Kentucky team that's averaging 79.6 PPG overall, including 94.0 at home. The Hilltoppers are shooting over 50% for the year. These teams met last season, almost one year ago to the date. WKU pulled a 78-77 upset in Fayatteville as an 11-pt dog. The game stayed Under by one-half points (total was 155.5). As you can see, there's been a noticeable drop in the O/U line for tonight's contest and that's certainly owed to how Arkansas has opened the season. After three straight games with less than stellar shooting, I think the Razorbacks are likely to get back on track offensively tonight. The only WKU games to stay Under this year all had totals higher than this one. 10* Over Arkansas/Western Kentucky | |||||||
12-06-19 | CS-Northridge v. Portland State UNDER 159 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
8* Under CS Northridge/Portland State (10:30 ET): Cal State Northridge will be going for a 2-0 sweep in the city of Portland this week. Wednesday night, they surprised me by beating Portland U 71-64 as a five-point dog. The Matadors started the year 0-7, but have now won two straight. (Last weekend they beat Fresno State 73-72). They've ended a streak, but now it's time for Portland State to do the same. The Vikings have gone Over in every game this year. Keeping w/ the theme of this three-pack, we will go Under tonight. Full disclosure -- I had Portland against CS Northridge Wednesday. Turns out I had reason to be suspicious of the short line w/ the Matadors pulling the outright upset. Neither team shot well (CSN 38.7%, Portland 32.7%), but the final score was aided by a combined 37 made free throws. While the Over is 6-3 so far in Cal State Northridge games, tonight's total is the highest they will have faced. This is not a great shooting team. Portland State is 7-0 Over, but this total also marks a new season-high for them. Like Cal State Northridge, the hosts don't shoot well. Especially from three-point range where they are a dreadful 30.1% for the year and 18.2% at home. After allowing six of its last seven opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, CS-Northridge will be a welcome opponent for the Vikings tonight. 8* Under CS Northridge-Portland State | |||||||
12-06-19 | North Dakota v. Montana OVER 131.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
12-06-19 | Tenn-Martin v. Central Michigan UNDER 166.5 | Top | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
8* Under TN Martin/Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Tennessee-Martin has gone Over in every game this year, but you can look for that streak to come to an end tonight in Mt. Pleasant. While it's true Central Michigan is the highest scoring team in the country right now (95.1 PPG) by a pretty wide margin, their presence in the matchup obviously results in a much higher than normal O/U line for TN Martin. The O/U line for tonight is 15 pts higher than any of the Skyhawks' previous six lined games. Take the Under. Central Michigan comes in at 6-2 SU with all six wins coming here at home. They probably should be 7-1, but blew an 18-pt halftime lead at DePaul (who is still undefeated, mind you), a result I'm still bitter over as the Chippewas were my Game of the Month that day and wound up not even covering (lost by 13). They rebounded nicely w/ an 88-72 win over Youngstown State Saturday. That makes two games in a row that would not have gone Over tonight's total. While the Chippewas have gone over 100 pts four times, three of those were against non-board teams and the other was vs. Miss Valley State, who is the worst D-I team. Half of Central Michigan's games would not have gone Over tonight's total. If the number is high for them, then imagine what we're dealing w/ for TN Martin. None of the Skyhawks' last four games would have gone Over this number either. They just competed down in Cancun, losing to Gardner-Webb, but then beating Boston U. Three times this year, TN Martin has been held to 67 points or less. Defensively, they have issues, which is a concern against an opponent like CMU. But note road teams are shooting just 40.8% here in Mt Pleasant. The road team will be kept in check offensively in this one and that keeps the game Under the total. 8* Under TN Martin/Central Michigan | |||||||
12-04-19 | CS-Northridge v. Portland -4 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:00 ET): Is this line a joke? I'm being serious when asking that question. Cal State Northridge just won its first game, beating Fresno State by a single point (73-72) as seven-point home underdogs. The Matadors had opened the year 0-7 and were 0-5 ATS the first five games. Only one of those losses was by single digits. Portland isn't Gonzaga (or even San Francisco for that matter!), but the WCC contingent should win rather easily at home tonight. Lay the short number. Portland's only loss so far was down at USC where they were a 23-point dog. Since then, they've rattled off five consecutive victories, all of them coming by fairly comfortable margins. Sunday's 65-56 triumph at the expense of Incarnate Word was the first game all year that the Pilots failed to cover. The reason for the ATS loss was a slow start as the Pilots actually trailed at halftime. But they were caught laying a bigger number than they are tonight, so a similar slow start (if that even happens) wouldn't be an issue. Hopefully Portland plays well from start to finish. They certainly should. CS-Northridge is allowing 88.1 PPG and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now. They are 321st in defensive efficiency (there are only 353 D-I schools) and only two teams are allowing more points per game. In other words, the home team should have a big offensive night. At home, the Pilots are 4-0 SU so far, shooting 50.2% themselves while allowing an opposing FG% of just 34.2. Last year, Portland was able to beat CS-Northridge on the road. They should do the same at home. 8* Portland | |||||||
12-04-19 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. DePaul | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
12-04-19 | Virginia v. Purdue | Top | 40-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
8* Purdue (7:15 ET): This is an interesting number as Purdue opened as the favorite, but the line has swung in Virginia's direction and I think there's a good shot the Hoos go off as the favorite at tipoff. Before you go chastising the oddsmakers for how they set the line, note that Purdue's 4-3 SU record is highly misleading as the three games they lost were all close. Most still consider the Boilermakers to be one of the best teams in America, most notably the KenPom rankings, which have them at 13th! I'll call for them to hand Virginia what would only its 4th loss since the start of last season! Virginia is 7-0 and winning games in its typical fashion. Tony Bennett's defense is allowing a minuscule 40.3 points per game so far, which is impressive even by its yearly standard. They just held Maine to 26 points (for the game!) last week. No one has scored more than 55 and the next highest point total they allowed was 46! But the competition also hasn't exactly been fierce. Note the Cavaliers are actually 0-5 ATS the L5 games because they are only averaging 55.1 PPG themselves. They may not be as stout as Virginia, but Purdue is giving up just 58.4 PPG. They are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. This game figures to be a "rock fight." But don't discount the home court advantage. The Boilermakers have won 34 of their last 36 games in West Lafayette. A 63-60 loss over the weekend to Florida State may have dropped them to 1-5 SU L6 games vs. the ACC, but this is a massive revenge game for a five-point loss in LY's Elite 8 where Virginia had to make a last-second 3-pointer to force OT. This year, the Cavaliers are really struggling from behind the new 3-pt line, shooting just 25%! 8* Purdue | |||||||
12-03-19 | Rutgers +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
10* Rutgers (9:00 ET): Michigan-Louisville isn't the only game I'm playing in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge Tuesday night. While far from being the most marquee game on the slate, Rutgers-Pitt happens to offer the most value. Not sure the home team even deserves to be favored here. Though off to a 6-2 start this year, remember that the Pitt program had fallen on some real "hard times" recently. They were a combined 16-43 SU the previous two seasons. I remain unconvinced that they've taken any real significant steps. Take the points here. Pitt is playing at a very slow pace so far as only 15 teams in the country average a fewer number of possessions per game. HC Jeff Capel, now in his second season, would like to play faster. It just hasn't happened for the Panthers so far. Now they've been mostly winning, so tempo hasn't been an issue. They just held both Kansas State and Northwestern to 59 points in a Thanksgiving Weekend tournament down in Fort Myers. But if Rutgers can push the pace here and score like they have their L2 games, then Pitt is going to be in a lot of trouble here. Remember Pitt did lose as an 18.5-point favorite to Nicholls State here at home earlier in the year. They also lost by 15 to West Virginia, also at home. Rutgers has yet to play a "true" road game and it's only loss was to St. Bonaventure as an 8.5-point neutral court favorite. The Scarlet Knights have topped 80 pts in B2B games and also beat the same SF Austin team that beat Duke. The last game was an 82-57 blowout of UMass. I just don't think Pitt has the scoring to keep up here. 10* Rutgers | |||||||
12-03-19 | Michigan v. Louisville -5 | Top | 43-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Louisville (7:30 ET): Michigan has gone from unranked to #4 in the country. It's not just that the Wolverines were unranked to start the season - they were unranked just last week! But a stunning showing at last week's Battle 4 Atlantis, which included wins over Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga, caused Juwan Howard's team to skyrocket into the Top 25. The move matches the biggest jump in the history of the poll as Kansas also went from unranked to #4 back in 1989. So now is probably as good a time as any to "sell high" on Michigan. While pollsters aren't always a reliable judge, the fact the Maize and Blue started unranked still means something. Sure, we are all guilty of a misread, but I still wouldn't consider the Wolverines a Top 10 team despite what they pulled off last week. Back in the 1st game of the season, I faded them as they failed to cover against Appalachian State. That's one of just two games Michigan hasn't covered this year. Louisville is #1 in the country, by the way! They are the fourth team to occupy the top spot in the season's first five weeks. They moved up to #1 thanks to Duke's stunning loss to Stephen F. Austin last week. Like Michigan, the Cardinals are 7-0. But the difference is that they opened the year ranked #5 in the country. This is Michigan's first "true" road game under Howard, so expect a downturn from the offensive efforts in Atlantis. L'ville is allowing just 36.3% shooting for the year. 8* Louisville | |||||||
11-29-19 | Utah State +4 v. St. Mary's | Top | 73-81 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah State (11:30 ET): I'm not sure I understand this line at all. Utah State is ranked #15 and is one of 31 unbeaten teams left in the country. There really is no objective measure by which one could consider St. Mary's the better team here. The game is at St. Mary's. But last year Utah State won so convincingly on a neutral court (80-63 as 4-point underdogs), the home court advantage doesn't even matter to me. The Aggies have played a weak schedule, save for the win over LSU, but getting to 7-0 w/o stud big man Neemias Queta has to have them happy in Logan. Take the points. I had USU when the beat LSU. Granted, the win required a shocking comeback as the Aggies trailed by as many as 19 points. But that was a quality non-conference win on a neutral court (Jamaica). This is Utah State's first "true" road game of the season. But the Jamaica trip, which also included a 68-59 win over North Texas, should have them ready. St. Mary's has already lost a home game, as 18-point favorites to Winthrop. The Aggies have held five of their seven opponents below 60 points. St. Mary's just yielded a season-high 66 in a win over Lehigh last weekend. So in what promises to be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems optimal. Plus, in its first five games, Utah State had four different leading scorers while averaging over 80 PPG. The win over North Texas on Sunday marked the first time this season that the Aggies didn't score at least 80. I had them in a 32-point win over UTSA where they allowed just 28.6% shooting. I like this team quite a bit and feel they're being undervalued. 10* Utah State | |||||||
11-26-19 | Central Michigan +12 v. DePaul | Top | 75-88 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Central Michigan enters this game at 5-1, but hasn't yet beaten an opponent of any real substance. Three of the Chippewas' five wins came against non-board teams while the other two were at the expense of Sam Houston State and Miss Valley State. In their only loss, they were blown out at Minnesota 82-57 as 10-pt underdogs. So it easy to see why the oddsmakers would be a little skeptical of them here at DePaul Tuesday night. But my own personal power rankings indicate the spread for this game should be much lower. Take the points. DePaul is unbeaten at 6-0 w/ wins over Iowa (were 9.5-pt dogs) and most recently, Boston College. Both Power 5 wins came on the road. This is the Blue Demons' best start in 33 seasons. That 1986-87 team started 16-0 en route to 28-3 and a Sweet 16 appearance. Eventually the accomplishments of that season had to be vacated due to NCAA rules violations, but it was still probably the best DePaul team ever. I'm not ready to put this group on par w/ that one. These schools actually just met in March w/ DePaul winning a 1st round CIT matchup 100-86 as 6.5-pt favorites. That game was played right here in Chicago, so as you can see, oddsmakers have definitely boosted the Blue Demons' rating. I remain unconvinced. Central Michigan leads the country in scoring right now (99.7 PPG!) and also turns their opponents over on more than one-quarter of possessions, good for 26th. I know the Chips were held to just 57 by Minnesota, but I don't see that happening again here. They led DePaul 33-21 in the first half of that game last March. One of the Blue Demons' starting guards, Devin Gage, sprained his ankle in practice last week and his status remains in limbo. 10* Central Michigan | |||||||
11-25-19 | Butler +1.5 v. Missouri | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10* Butler (7:00 ET): In an amazing coincidence, both Butler and Minnesota are coming off wins over Wofford and Morehead State by a combined 37 points. It doesn't stop there, however. Each team beat Wofford by 19 (Butler 80-61, Missouri 75-56) and Morehead State by 18 (Butler 68-50, Missouri 70-52)! Butler won its first two games by a combined 59 pts, beating IUPUI 80-47 and New Orleans 79-53. Missouri won its first two games by a combined 55 points, beating Incarnate Word 82-42 and Northern Kentucky 71-56! The only difference then is that Butler has a win over a major conference team, 64-56 against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite. Missouri lost by five at Xavier as a 5.5-pt underdog. Each of those games saw the ATS result decided by one-half point. So it seems like a pretty even battle tonight in Kansas City as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. But I've got Butler rated as the better team by a few points. I like them as an underdog. Both teams have been excellent defensively. Missouri actually ranks #6 in the country right now in defensive efficiency. No opponent has shot above 38.0% against the Tigers. But four of the five opponents were likely to anyway. Butler has the edge offensively in this matchup. They have four players averaging double figures. Missouri had only two players in double figures in their last game. Through the years, Butler has excelled in these neutral court games, going 77-43 ATS. 10* Butler | |||||||
11-23-19 | Portland State v. San Jose State UNDER 148.5 | Top | 91-76 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Portland St/San Jose St (10:00 ET): San Jose State's athletic department is one of the more beleaguered in the country right now, at least among schools that have D-I football and basketball programs. There's no scandal here; the teams are simply bad. Last year's hoops team finished 4-27 SU! The good news is this year's squad is already one win away from matching that win total! Tonight, the 3-2 Spartans host a Portland State team still smarting off a loss to an area rival. Take the Under. Portland State hails from the Big Sky. But the non-conference game they lost on Wednesday to Portland will sting as much any loss the Vikings suffer the rest of this season. Not only did they struggle to make shots (40.9 FG%), especially from three-point range (4 of 22), but they let the opponent shoot 52.8% overall. All three PSU games where you could have bet the total have now gone Over. But it's important to note the Vikings' shooting struggles are not necessarily confined to just that last game. So far this year, Portland State is shooting just 28.8% from three-point range. San Jose State is actually worse at 27.0%. Remember that the three-point line was moved back in College Basketball this year and I expect teams across the country to now struggle in that area. Speaking of struggling to shoot, Portland State made only 40% of its shots in two previous road games (Indiana, Hawaii). SJSU has had two games this year where they scored only 57 (against Portland) and 39 points. 10* Under Portland State/San Jose State | |||||||
11-23-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -4 | Top | 86-87 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Memphis (1:00 ET): The Tigers were a team I expected to have on my "overrated" list this year, but the James Wiseman suspension has actually created a situation where they're now underrated. Penny Hardaway's team may have only managed to beat Arkansas Little-Rock by 10 points, but my suspicion is we will be getting an 'A effort' here. Saturday afternoon finds them hosting an unbeaten Ole Miss team that has yet to play a road game. Lay the (very) short number. Ole Miss' four victories this season have all come by double digits. While that may sound impressive, it's less so when you consider the Rebels were favorites of at least 18.5 points in every game. They've looked good defensively, but have yet to face a team as talented as Memphis. The last two seasons have seen the Rebels go just 7-15 in "true" road games. They've also lost 23 of 29 as underdogs. I don't expect Blake Hinson to be that much of a factor today in his season debut. Memphis is a talented team even w/o Wiseman and I expect them to show that here. They did not shoot particularly well against Little Rock, making only 38.7% of their field goal attempts, including 23.8% from three-point range. Yet they still won by 10. I think that bodes well moving forward as you can expect the Tigers to have better shooting nights. This is a chance for them to show that they remain a force, even when Wiseman is sidelined. The team has covered five straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* Memphis | |||||||
11-22-19 | Utah State -1.5 v. LSU | Top | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
10* Utah State (7:00 ET): This will be my second time taking Utah State this week, although this time the competition is a whole lot stiffer and they're down in Jamaica. On Monday, the Aggies (ranked #14 in the country) blew out an overmatched UTSA team 82-50 to move to 5-0 on the year. Now they face LSU, who will be the most challenging opponent to date. But USU should be up for said challenge. Like I said Monday, this team is absolutely worthy of its ranking. They deserve to be favored by more than this as it's the names of the front of the jerseys giving us value here. LSU drubbed MD-Baltimore County in its last game, 77-50 as a 17.5-pt favorite. But that was a game where the Tigers benefited from some atrocious shooting by the opposition as the Retrievers made only 5 of 33 three-point attempts. They can't rely on that happening again tonight as Utah State is shooting very well (48.7%) on its way to averaging 86 PPG. Now the competition hasn't been that tough for the Aggies so far. But this is still the 1st time since the 1986-87 season that they have scored 80+ points in their first five games. They are 21-10 SU the L3 seasons after scoring 80+ in their previous game. LSU actually trailed UMBC early due to the fact they didn't make a single basket in the first 7:10 of the game! They would eventually overwhelm the Retrievers with their size, but that won't happen here. The Tigers don't shoot well from 3-pt range (28.6%) and turnovers have been an issue so far as well (especially in the loss to VCU). Utah State has had four different players lead the team in scoring these first five games while holding the last four opponents all below 40% shooting. They are the superior side in this one and that's not fully reflected in this line. 10* Utah State | |||||||
11-22-19 | Maryland-Baltimore County -1 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 45-62 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
8* UMBC (2:00 ET): UMBC is basically the "Appalachian State of College Hoops" in the sense that the program will always be associated w/ one famous upset. It was 20 months ago that the Retrievers did the unthinkable as they became the first 16-seed to ever beat a 1-seed, doing so at Virginia's expense. That upset is all the more remarkable considering Virginia bounced back and won the National Championship last season. In case you're wondering how UMBC did last season, they went 21-13 overall (11-5 in the America East), but did not qualify for the NCAA Tourney. This year, the Retrievers have started 4-1. The one loss came Tuesday at LSU, in emphatic fashion as the final score was 77-50. UMBC shot just 31.1% in the contest, basically giving them no chance against a team with superior athletes and size. Though it should be mentioned the Retrievers actually did enjoy an early 16-10 advantage. They held LSU w/o a field goal for the first 7:10 of the game! That they still lost by 27 shows how quickly things fell apart. Now it's on to Jamaica for a tournament and the 1st round opponent is undefeated Eastern Michigan (4-0). Like UMBC, Eastern Michigan started its season by playing several non-DI schools. All were double digit wins (by 13 or more), but nothing can really be ascertained from those. Then the Eagles did pull an upset last Saturday in Denton, beating North Texas 56-51 as a nine-point underdog. But don't let that fool you, UMBC is still the better team here. The Retrievers were 5 of 33 from three-point range against LSU, which won't be happening again, and they do a good job at forcing turnovers. EMU does not have the length of an LSU, which bothered the UMBC shooters so much in the last game. 8* UMBC | |||||||
11-21-19 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State -3.5 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): An outright win here by Charlotte would make it three straight upsets for them and I don't see that happening. The last two games have seen the 49ers beat Davidson 71-58 (+10) and Wake Forest 67-65 (+2), but both of those upsets took place at home. The team's only prior road trip resulted in a five-point loss to James Madison (the season opener). App State has played twice the number of games (6) as had Charlotte and after an ugly performance Monday at UNC-Greensboro, they'll be eager to bounce back. Lay the short number. These two Tar Heel State schools are separated by less than 120 miles and they've met rather regularly through the years. This will be the 1st matchup since 2016, but also the 10th since 2001. Charlotte has taken the previous four, but none of the players from that last meeting are still around and the coaching staffs are different as well. Sunday's win over Wake Forest, which required overtime, makes the 49ers prone to a letdown here. The win snapped a 13-game losing streak to ACC opponents. The team has still lost 22 of its last 27 road games. Appalachian State is battle-tested in its own right as they just played a mini-Tournament in Greensboro. Things didn't end well w/ a dreadful shooting night (29.1 FG%) against the hosts, but the Mountaineers did hold UNC Greensboro to 32.1% shooting as well. Since losing the season opener to Michigan (a game where we cashed plus the points), ASU has not allowed more than 62 pts in any game. Having also dropped their most recent home game (last Friday), there will be no shortage of motivation for the home team tonight. 8* Appalachian State | |||||||
11-21-19 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Washington State -7.5 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* Washington State (7:00 ET): Omaha is not only playing its third straight road game, but also its second in three days and it's a long trip from Dayton, OH (where they were Tuesday) to Pullman, WA. Seeing as the Mavericks have dropped all three road games this year - by an average of 18 PPG - it's pretty difficult to like their chances here tonight. Washington State has shown signs of improvement following the dreadful 11-21 campaign last season. This is one of those games the Cougars will need to take advantage of, as they figure to be an underdog most nights this season. Wazzu's season started w/ a 31-point win over Seattle here in Pullman. Then, it was an ugly shooting night at Santa Clara, a game they lost 70-62. It was a six-minute stretch in the second half - where they were 0 of 8 from the field - that killed their chances there. While the Cougars did not cover against Idaho State in their return home Sunday, they did at least turn in another solid defensive effort, holding the Bengals to 61 points. An injury to PG Jaylen Shead isn't great, but this is arguably the weakest opponent that WSU will face all season. Omaha did not defend well against Dayton, allowing the Flyers to shoot almost 58% for the entire game. It was their second straight game allowing 80 or more points. In addition, the Mavericks have not shot the ball well on the road this year, averaging just 40% from the field. 1st year HC Kyle Smith has a deep team here in Pullman as eight players are averaging double digit minutes. So the Shead injury may not be that big of a deal. CJ Elleby is still the team leader in points at 20.0 per game. The home team certainly has enough to win this game by a comfortable margin. 8* Washington State | |||||||
11-21-19 | Xavier v. Towson +9.5 | Top | 73-51 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
8* Towson (7:00 ET): This is a live dog we've got on our hands Thursday and not just because Xavier comes in at 0-4 ATS. Towson just played Florida really tough (lost by only 6 in Gainesvile) and despite what the pollsters have to say about it, we believe the Gators are a better team than the Musketeers. Xavier might be #18 in the AP Top 25 right now, but they don't even make the Top 45 in our own power rankings. Among the teams currently in the Top 25, the Musketeers appear to be the most overrated. Definitely take the points in this 1st Rd matchup of the Charleston Classic. While Xavier is 0-4 ATS, they are also 4-0 straight up and that's the record the coaching staff cares about. Still, the last two games have been very tight as they beat Missouri by five in overtime and then Missouri State by only three. Though Missouri State is the preseason favorite to win the MVC, it was a game the Musketeers were expected to win by 13.5 points. The Bears' 1-3-1 zone defense gave Xavier all sorts of fits as they could only make 5 of 22 three-point attempts. But three-point woes were not new for this team. They were 3 of 21 from behind the arc against Missouri and are shooting just 20.6% there for the year. Remember the line was moved back this year. Xavier is clearly struggling to adjust. Towson has permitted its first four opponents to shoot just 27.3% from behind the 3-pt arc, so expect those Xavier struggles to continue. Towson led Florida with just 5:46 remaining before going cold from the field. I know the tendency is to view the Gators as a disappointing team right now, but they came into the year ranked #6 in the country! Towson may only be 2-2 SU, but those two losses were by a total of 10 points. They've had a different leading scorer in each game. 8* Towson | |||||||
11-20-19 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Memphis -14.5 | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:00 ET): I have to say, coming into the year, Memphis figured to be more of a fade for me than a take. But with a loss (to Oregon) already on their resume and this whole James Wiseman debacle playing out, might the Tigers actually now be (gasp) underrated? Penny Hardaway's team rebounded nicely from that loss to Oregon by blowing out SWAC member Alcorn State, 102-56. That was their first game w/o Wiseman, who has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. As we saw against Alcorn State, this can be a good team even w/ Wiseman sidelined. Lay the points here. Now Arkansas Little-Rock is no Alcorn State. The Trojans can be a competitive team as they've shown Memphis in the past. Over the last six meetings, ALR is 5-1 ATS even though they've lost every game straight up. The last two years have seen them fall by 8 and 10 points. Both times they were getting 14 from the oddsmakers. Already this year, the Trojans have pulled one upset, winning 67-66 at Missouri State as a 12.5-point dog. They also covered at Illinois State, their only SU loss. But this game is obviously a big step up in class from previous opponents. It should be pointed out that Memphis' loss to Oregon was a de facto road game (played in Portland). So there was no shame in losing there. This is clearly a talented team w/o Wiseman and I expect that to show Wednesday night. Something that Little Rock does NOT do well is shoot the three. They are hitting just 26.9% from behind the arc, which simply won't cut it in a game like this. The only concern w/ Memphis is FT shooting, but they should have a big enough edge here that won't matter. 10* Memphis | |||||||
11-19-19 | New Mexico +1 v. UTEP | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (9:00 ET): This battle of unbeatens finds New Mexico departing campus for the first time, but it won't be a long trip for the Lobos as they head to El Paso to face annual rival UTEP. This will be the fourth season in a row these schools are playing and while the home team is 3-0 SU, it has been the Miners leaving w/ the cash on every occasion. But compared to last year, this number has changed dramatically as UTEP was a 16-pt dog when it covered LY in Albuquerque (lost 84-78). They are 8-1-1 ATS the L10 meetings w/ UNM, but this could be the first time since '99 that they go off as the favorite. New Mexico's four wins have not only all come at home, but they've all been by double digits. The most recent was a 90-80 triumph against McNeese State on Sunday in spite of allowing 50.9% shooting. In the first three games, the Lobos never allowed higher than 44.4% shooting. At the same time, they've scored at least 90 in every contest. In three of the four games, they've had five players finish in double figures. This is a good team. UTEP has held its first three overmatched opponents to an average of 59.0 PPG. They did defeat a New Mexico State team who is awaiting on deck for New Mexico. The Miners were 2.5-pt home underdogs in that game, which they won 65-50. Their other two wins came against non-DI opponents. There has been one common opponent for these two teams, that being Eastern New Mexico, whom New Mexico defeated by 21 and UTEP beat by 14. I simply feel that the better team here is the one that opened as an underdog. Don't be surprised if this number "jumps the fence" prior to tipoff. 10* New Mexico | |||||||
11-18-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Utah State -19 | Top | 50-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
8* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State deserves to be ranked #17 in the country as they have dominated all four of their games so far. This was an NCAA Tournament team last year as they won 28 games and the Mountain West. Four of the five starters from that team are back for 2019-20. Keep in mind that sophomore center Neemias Queta has yet to suit up this season due to a knee injury. The Aggies have had a different leading scorer in every game thus far. UTSA's start to the year couldn't be more opposite of what we've seen from Utah State. The Roadrunners are 0-4 and have failed to cover every game. Every loss has been by double digits and what's really shocking is that they were favored to win three of the four games. They haven't played since last Sunday when they lost at home to Delaware, 91-79. So you know UTSA is going to be ready coming into this one. The problem is they simply aren't on Utah State's level. There is a chance Quete could play here (listed as questionable), but even if he doesn't, the Aggies have shown they can do just fine w/o him. They've scored at least 81 pts in every game, all of them having taken place here in Logan. Since only beating Montana State by eight in the season opener, they've won by 55, 41 and 27 points. Still I'm not sure if the oddsmakers have properly accounted for how good this team is just yet. UTSA's shooting has been exceptionally poor thus far and USU is allowing an overall FG% of just 35.0. On the flip side, UTSA has also really struggled to defend and USU has shot 55% of better twice in the L3 games. 8* Utah State | |||||||
11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Creighton | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
10* La Tech (6:00 ET): Off to a 2-0 start, Louisiana Tech is about to be tested for the 1st time as they pay a visit to Creighton. The Bulldogs have won both games by 33+ points and are averaging 90.0 PPG on better than 50% shooting. They held Texas A&M-CC and Wiley College to just 31% from the floor. While such wins really don't tell you a lot about a team, I feel that the contingent from Ruston makes for a LIVE underdog tonight. They are catching Creighton in a bad spot. Take the points. Creighton just lost to Michigan on Tuesday, 79-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They did lead at halftime, but couldn't slow down the Wolverines in the 2nd half. The Bluejays ended up allowing a 56.6 FG% for the game and that simply isn't going to cut it against a La Tech that's shot the lights out so far. Guarding the three-point line wasn't as easy against Michigan as it was vs. Kennesaw State (who went 3 for 20) and that could be a sign of things to come here. It's not easy winning here in Omaha where Creighton has gone 30-8 SU its L38 games. But the Bluejays are also 0-3 ATS the L3 times they've been asked to lay between 9.5 and 12 points on their own floor. Incredibly, they are also just 3 for 10 from FT line in two games! They don't have a single starter taller than 6'7". Despite grabbing 18 offensive rebounds against Michigan, they got only 13 pts off them, a shocking lack of efficiency. La Tech is an explosive offensive team that is great at forcing turnovers and this game will be a nice way to make it up to the fine folks in Ruston still angry about last night's loss on the football field. 10* La Tech | |||||||
11-13-19 | Southern Utah v. BYU -12.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
10* BYU (9:00 ET): BYU lost as a four-point favorite in its last game, falling to San Diego State 76-71 on Saturday. That same day, Southern Utah pulled off what will likely end up being the highlight of their season, a 79-78 upset of Nebraska where they rallied back from a double digit deficit in the second half. Those results set us up very nicely for a play on BYU here. Yes, the Cougars are a little short-handed right now (Yoeli Childs suspended). But they still led SDSU for much of the second half. It was a game they still should have won. Look for them to take out their frustrations tonight. Lay the points. Southern Utah trailed Nebraska by 11 at halftime and was down by as many as 14 early in the second half. The Thunderbirds made their shocking comeback thanks to some terrible Nebraska shooting down the stretch. The Cornhuskers finished the game at 37.0% overall and 19.2% from three-point range. Surprisingly, SUU was even worse from behind the arc. But they still earned their 1st win over a power conference program since 2003. They needed double overtime to do so as Cameron Oluyitan sank a 10-ft jumper w/ just two seconds left to give his team the upset win (were 7-pt underdogs). Though the schools have not met since 2007, BYU has dominated this in-state rivalry, winning 9 straight times from 99-07. Eight of the nine wins have been by double digits. As mentioned above, while Southern Utah had to come from behind to earn its latest victory, BYU "came from ahead" in its latest loss. Despite trailing at halftime, the Cougars were up eight w/ just under 13 minutes remaining. They were up seven w/ just over six minutes left. Playing at home, it's a game they should have won. Though part of the Maui Invitational, this game is being played in Provo and I don't see BYU suffering B2B home defeats. 10* BYU | |||||||
11-12-19 | New Mexico State -3 v. UTEP | Top | 50-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* New Mexico State (8:00 ET): This "border war" rounds out today's deep dive. Las Cruces and El Paso aren't too far away on the map, but I feel the schools hailing from those corresponding cities are a lot further apart than what the oddsmakers seem to think. New Mexico State has beaten UTEP nine straight times, including a four-point win here in El Paso last season. The number is lower for this year's visit and I'm not sure why as the teams are about the same. Lay the points. New Mexico State could not have had an easier opening game. Faced w/ an opponent that had zero chance, they quickly put Western New Mexico out of its misery. Now I realize that is a "nothing team" the Aggies beat, but the numbers were pretty staggering. The game started w/ 16-0 run. NMSU led 52-16 at the half and was up by as many as 52 in an eventual 92-46 victory. All 10 players that took the court scored. They allowed 28.6% shooting. Let's not forget that this New Mexico State team won 30 games last season and took Auburn to the wire (lost by 1) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Five of its five losses were by six points or less! They have four starters back and figure to run through the WAC yet again. As for UTEP, it's 93-70 win over NM Highlands was not nearly as impressive as what NMSU did in its opener. The Miners actually turned the ball over 20 times and led by only nine w/ just over eight minutes remaining in the 2H. I think it's shocking this number is so low as the favorite is a really good team. 8* New Mexico State | |||||||
11-12-19 | Chicago State +19.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 34-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Chicago State (8:00 ET): I'm digging deep on the board tonight. Chicago State is a team that has averaged 94 points in its first two games, albeit not against the stiffest of competition. The Cougars opened with a 103-60 rout of Judson College, a NAIA school, a game in which they shot the lights out (56.3%!) and led by 20 at halftime. They then lost to Loyola (MD), 98-85 in the home opener. This time, it was the Cougars on the wrong end of some sharpshooting as Loyola made 60% of its field goal attempts in the 1st half. Expect better defense from them tonight as I'll take the points. This is obviously a big number for Eastern Illinois to lay in the wake of an 0-2 start. Now it was expected the Panthers would start 0-2 as they opened w/ road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin. They did not do well at Texas Tech, losing 85-60, but were surprisingly competitive in Madison, losing by only 13 as 19-point underdogs. EIU was actually within three w/ just nine minutes to play and what makes that even more impressive is they were -17 in points at the free throw line for the game. That discrepancy basically determined the outcome of the game. While Eastern Illinois won't be facing that kind of free throw discrepancy tonight at home, I don't see a clear path to winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here. I know they faced two tough defensive teams, but a 56.0 PPG scoring average isn't exactly what you want to see from this large of a favorite. Especially when matched up w/ an underdog that you know can put the ball in the basket. Something to keep in mind is that Chicago State beat Eastern Illinois last year for their ONLY win over a D-I opponent the entire year (team finished 3-29). They are MUCH better this year. 8* Chicago State | |||||||
11-12-19 | UL - Lafayette +18 v. TCU | Top | 65-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Let's continue the "deep dive" into tonight's College Hoops card w/ a play on UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns are hoping for the same kind of success that the school's football team is having at the betting window this year (football team is 8-1 ATS, tied for best ATS record in the country w/ Ohio St). So far the basketball team is 2-0 SU, but neither game was lined. They defeated Loyola (NO) and McNeese State at home, by 28 and 5 points respectively. Take the points here as this number is way too high. TCU has played just one game and it was against Southwestern (TX), also a non-board opponent. The Horned Frogs won by 21 (83-62), but don't expect many more wins like that this season out of Ft. Worth. This team was picked to finish last in the Big 12. While leading scorer Desmond Bane is back, the next top four scorers from LY's team all departed. Bane did go for 26 against Southwestern, a D-III opponent, but it was shockingly just a three-point game shortly after halftime. So the final score there was a little misleading. Again, I won't be betting on TCU to win many games by large margins this year. UL Lafayette is picked to finish 5th in the Sun Belt. They too lost a lot of talent from LY's squad, but did bring in a key transfer (Jalen Johnson) from St. Louis. Also, the team's leading returning scorer, Cedric Russell, went for 22 pts against McNeese State. Giving the Ragin Cajuns hope here is the fact TCU was actually outrebounded in the opening game and allowed nearly 40% three-point shooting. 8* UL Lafayette | |||||||
11-11-19 | Kent State v. Towson | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Towson (7:00 ET): Towson has played two games thus far, the last one being a glorified scrimmage, which they won 100-31 against D-III Bryn Athyn. As you can imagine, the numbers from that game were fairly outrageous for the Tigers as they took a 59-15 lead into halftime and held the opposition to 24% shooting for the game, including 0 for 12 on three-point attempts! While little can be derived from that kind of victory, there's no denying that Towson's first win (over George Washington) had some merit. The Tigers won that one 72-58, easily covering the 5.5-pt spread. I'll lay the points here in the first ever meeting w/ Kent State. Kent State has played just once so far and it was a non-lined affair vs. a D-III school. While they did go on to beat Hiram College 97-58, note that it was only a nine-point game at halftime, which is a little troubling. In the second half, the Golden Flashes did catch fire from three-point range. They ended up making 13 three-pointers in the game and it also helped that Hiram turned the ball over 21 times. Towson certainly isn't going to be as generous this evening though and this being a road game, I think it's smart to be a little leery of what Kent State can really do in this spot. Towson has been able to show off its depth in the first two games. The bench accounted for 65 of the 100 points last game as starters basically sat the entire 2H. Also, the defense has been outstanding so far w/ the two opponents shooting just 31% overall and 20% from 3-pt range. Kent State relied heavily on the 3-pt shot against Hiram, but was only 43% overall from the field, which isn't a good sign here. While Towson was NOT one of the five teams in the CAA that earned a first place vote in the preseason poll, they are nevertheless dangerous, especially w/ this infusion of young talent. Kent State is more experienced, but still is a middle of the road MAC team. The home court edge matters big time here as the Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS the L2 seasons as a road dog of 3 pts or less. 10* Towson | |||||||
11-10-19 | Illinois v. Arizona -6.5 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Any concern #21 Arizona may have over impending NCAA sanctions weren't apparent Wednesday night when they completely wiped the floor w/ Northern Arizona. Obviously, it figured to be a lopsided affair going in. But the Wildcats easily covered the 23.5-point spread, winning 91-52 for HC Sean Miller. Freshman Zeke Nnaji led the way w/ 20 points as Arizona dominated down low. Nnaji is one of seven newcomers to the Arizona program this year, so it's no wonder the issues surrounding the program aren't affecting the current roster. Lay the points. This will be the third game for Illinois. But unlike what Arizona did in its first game, the Fighting Illini have failed to overwhelm two lesser opponents. A pair of eight point wins over Nicholls State and Grand Canyon really aren't all that impressive when you think about it and then needed OT to beat Nicholls State at home. The +56 rebounding margin the Illini has enjoyed so far won't be present here. Also, playing a third game in less than a week really isn't the best setup for the first true test of the season is it? Especially when its a second road game in three nights and out on the West Coast. Arizona is simply deeper and better than Illinois. They are also better rested. Not only did Illinois need OT to beat Nicholls State in the opener, they only led Grand Canyon by four at halftime on Friday. Asking them to "keep up" in Tucson seems like a tall order considering the Illini have won just 3 of their previous 23 road games (includes the win at Grand Canyon)! 10* Arizona | |||||||
11-09-19 | Austin Peay v. Western Kentucky -11.5 | Top | 75-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (4:00 ET): Both teams won their opening game. Western Kentucky prevailed 76-64 over Tennessee Tech here in Bowling Green, but failed to cover as 19-point favorites. Austin Peay was a 110-67 winner over Oakland City, but do not make the mistake of reading too much into that result. Oakland City is a Division II school that had no chance of winning. Austin Peay did win 22 games last season, but did not make the postseason. They bring back just one starter from that team, Terry Taylor, who scored 21 points in the opener. That's right about where his output was a season ago (20.5 PPG). But the rest of the team being as prolific as it was vs. Oakland City is not something that should be counted upon regularly. The Governors were an insane 41 of 59 on 2-pt attempts Tuesday. That probably won't happen again this season. The size advantage they enjoyed in that first game simply won't be present here. Western Kentucky could be considered the favorite in C-USA this season. They bring back a majority of the team that won 20 games last season. Though they did not cover the large spread in the opening game, they did lead by double digits for the entirety of the second half. They didn't even shoot that well from three-point range, so that's something to look for here. The Hilltoppers were a strong 21-13 overall at the betting window last season. This number ought to be higher, so we'll lay it. 8* Western Kentucky | |||||||
11-09-19 | Southern Utah v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 79-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): I have to admit that when I first glanced at this line, I thought someone from Nebraska had to be injured. I know Southern Utah is a "program on the rise," but this number is way too short. The game is in Lincoln after all! The reason for the short line is that the Cornhuskers are in off an embarrassing loss in their opener where they fell 66-47 to UC Riverside as 15.5-pt favorites. It was an ice cold shooting night in HC Fred Hoiberg's debut. That's not going to happen again and you should look to take advantage of this line, which is way too low. Nebraska shot just 29.1% from the floor Tuesday vs. UC Riverside, a shocking performance indeed. They were 6 of 26 from three-point range w/ three of their top shooters going a collective 1 for 11. Incredibly, as a team, they missed 35 of their final 44 shots overall. That is unconscionable! Even the free throw line was unkind as Nebraska went 9 for 19 there. As embarrassing a setback as that may have been, you have to chalk it up to "one of those nights." I don't think it's indicative of what we'll see out of Lincoln under Hoiberg. Southern Utah smoked Bethesda in its first game, winning 110-66. But that's a non-board team and this is a big step up travelling to face an opponent out of the Big 10. Last year was Southern Utah's best finish in ages as they went 17-17 and won a game in the CIT. But there's still a big gap between them and Nebraska. Key here is that SUU likes to run, just like Nebraska does, so it's a better matchup for the favorite than UC Riverside was. Also, the Thunderbirds lack the size UC Riverside had. Nebraska allowed just 61.2 PPG in non-conference play a season ago. Defense wasn't the issue on Tuesday though. It'll be the obvious offensive improvement that carries them to a cover here. 10* Nebraska | |||||||
11-08-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami-FL -11 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Coming off a 13-point home loss to Louisville, you've got to figure "The U" will be pretty fired up here. FAU seems like an ideal matchup as the 'Canes are 23-1 SU against them all-time, including a 20-point win as 14-pt favorites LY. The Owls are definitely a step down in class from L'ville, the #5 ranked team in the country. Though Miami initially led 16-9 Tuesday night, little else went right after that. They closed the game on a 16-2 run to make the final score at least respectable. But they did trail by as many as 32. Still, they are the play here. Lay the number. Miami is much deeper and more experienced team than they were a season ago when they finished just 14-18, ending a three-year NCAA Tournament run. Defensively, I expect a much better effort here than what we saw Tuesday. HC Jim Larranaga preached defense all off-season, yet his team allowed L'ville to shoot 55% from the field, which is terribly disappointing. But again, that's a much better team that what they'll be facing here. Last year, the Hurricanes held FAU to 33% shooting and were up 23 by halftime. FAU played a Division II team (Flagler) in its opening game, so little can be drawn from that. The Owls scored 92 points with some red hot shooting, but also gave up 81 points and had 20 turnovers, which are not good signs. In last year's game, Miami had its way on the interior, making 20 of 29 two-point shots! The Canes did shoot well in the 2H vs. L'ville, including 50% from three-point range. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS following a SU loss while FAU is 8-20 ATS off its L28 SU wins. 10* Miami FL | |||||||
11-06-19 | Long Beach State v. UCLA -16.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
8* UCLA (11:00 ET): The Mick Cronin era is set to begin at UCLA. This once proud program has descended into almost being irrelevant, but Cronin should get them back to the top of the Pac 12. Cronin did an excellent job the L13 seasons in Cincinnati, who was perenially one of the top defensive teams in the country. He inherits 13 returning players from the previous regime. The first game is against Long Beach State, a team the Bruins have pretty much dominated over the years. They are 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) the L7 meetings including a 91-80 win to open last season. Lay the points here in Cronin's debut. LBSU is known for taking on a challenging non-conference schedule under HC Dan Monson. But last year saw them drop 10 of 14 non-conf games while giving up nearly 80 PPG. This year could be a lot uglier and not because of the defense. The top five scorers from LY's team are all gone. No returning player averaged more than 7.2 PPG last season. No one else on this current roster averaged more than 4.0 PPG. The 49ers have finished under .500 five of the last six seasons and have won just 15 games each of the L3 seasons. It could be a long season. UCLA was terrible defensively last season, but I project them to be one of the most improved teams in the country in that department under Cronin's guidance. This was a very good hire. Last year's team had all sorts of distractions and Steve Alford got fired 13 games into the season. Don't forget the program had to deal w/ the Ball family two years ago. It's a more focused group coming into 2019 and Cronin brought in three four-star recruits. Even if Prince Ali's ankle doesn't allow him to play here, the Bruins have enough talent on hand to win big. Cronin is looking to make a statement here. 8* UCLA | |||||||
11-05-19 | Appalachian State +18 v. Michigan | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): There's an obvious comment to be made here w/ Michigan opening its season against Appalachian State. It was a little more than 12 years ago, over at "The Big House," that the Wolverines' football team laid a historic egg against ASU (then a FCS program) in what still ranks as one of the greatest upsets in the history of that particular sport. Of course, that also happened to be Lloyd Carr's final season in Ann Arbor. It's a new era of Michigan hoops w/ Juwan Howard taking over for John Beilein, who went to the NBA to the coach Cleveland. I don't see Howard losing his HC debut, but the Maize and Blue aren't as good as they've been in past years. Take the points. Howard was of course part of the famed "Fab Five" that took Michigan - and the entire College Basketball world - by storm in the early 90's. But he has zero head coaching experience and is laying a big number tonight. The Wolverines lost their top three scorers from a year ago and freshman Franz Wagner broke his wrist, which will cause him to miss 4-6 weeks. Michigan played a very sophisticated offense under Beilein. Under Howard, it looks like they'll "play faster." But a recent scrimmage against Saginaw Valley State saw them shoot just 9 of 31 from three-point range and at one point, they went seven minutes w/o making a shot. My guess is Michigan isn't going to be as stout defensively either now that Beilein has moved on. Appalachian State went 11-21 SU last season, it's eighth straight losing campaign. So a coaching change was made as Dustin Kerns comes over after a successful run at Presbyterian. Kerns inherits a good deal of returning talent, led by Justin Forrest, who averaged 16.2 PPG last season. He's one of three starters back. The Mountaineers definitely didn't have issues scoring last season as they averaged 79.9 PPG, which was 33rd in the country. The issue was at the other end. But if Michigan struggles to shoot like they did vs. Saginaw Valley State, that issue should be less of a problem. Plus, I expect Kerns to improve the team's overall defense. 8* Appalachian State | |||||||
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
10* Virginia (9:20 ET): Those who follow my NCAA Tournament picks regularly know that I constantly tout the importance of defense, particularly efficiency, this time of year. If you were still on the fence about believing me, then look no further than this National Championship matchup which pits the #1 team in scoring defense (Virginia) against the #1 team in defensive efficiency (Texas Tech). For the record, Virginia is 5th in efficiency while Texas Tech is third in points allowed. Points definitely figure to be at a premium Monday night, but ultimately (pun intended!) I feel that it will be Virginia cutting down the nets. They have been the more consistent team all season and were my pick to win it all before this Tournament started. It's not just Virginia's entire body of work that has me on them here. The Hoos have been very good in this Tournament as well. As per usual, we start w/ defense. They are giving up only 55.5 PPG for the season, 58.6 PPG in the Tournament. Remember though, they were taken to overtime by Purdue. Yes, the last three victories have all been by five points or less. But we are getting what I feel is an extremely good value here as this line would have been much higher had these teams played a couple weeks ago. Also, the Cavaliers are a perfect 11-0 ATS the L2 seasons when on the road and coming off a SU win where they did not cover. That's the situation they're in here. Tip your cap to Texas Tech, who has been very kind to me in this Tournament. They were a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release when they upset Gonzaga in the Elite 8, then my *10* Game of the Year when they upset Michigan State. They're a perfect 5-0 ATS now in the Big Dance w/ all but one win (Gonzaga) coming by double digits. They are giving up fewer PPG (55.8) in the Tournament than Virginia. But, the irony here is that with the defensive numbers basically being a draw, it could come down to the fact Virginia is #2 in the country in offensive efficiency (Tex Tech just 28th). Virginia has been the better team all year and getting them as basically a "pick 'em" is a big deal. 10* Virginia | |||||||
04-06-19 | Texas Tech +3 v. Michigan State | Top | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 104 h 15 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (8:49 ET): The Red Raiders were a signature *10* ULTIMATE POWER release for me in the Elite 8 when they upset top seeded Gonzaga. They remain a live dog moving forward, thanks to #1 ranking in defensive efficiency. This is the key metric that I've leaned on in past tournaments and Texas Tech beating Gonzaga (who was #1 in the country in offensive efficiency) was the latest example of it working out. As soon as the Red Raiders moved on Saturday night, I knew I was going take them again here, regardless of the Duke-Michigan State winner. The fact Michigan State won I believe is a better deal for the Red Raiders as they don't have the offensive weapons that Duke does. Take the points. Since a poor 1st half in the first round game against Bradley, Michigan State has been very good, outscoring its opponents by 50 points. They outlasted Duke 68-67, sparked by Cassius Winston's 20 points. But Sparty is not a deep team. Only seven players saw action against Duke w/ one of them (Gabe Brown) playing just three minutes. Had Xavier Tillman not gotten into early foul trouble, it's likely Brown wouldn't have even seen the floor. All other MSU starters played at least 38 minutes w/ Winston playing the whole 40. I realize the Spartans have won 14 out of their last 15 games (only loss by 1 pt!) w/ three wins over Michigan. But Texas Tech, save for Duke, will be their toughest opponent to date. Remember that Texas Tech had no problem beating Michigan in the Sweet 16 themselves. They crushed the Wolverines, holding them to 1 of 19 shooting from three-point range, in a 63-44 final. Michigan State's three wins over Michigan were by a combined 24 points. The Red Raiders have held their four tournament opponents to an average of 57 PPG and the last three have all been against top 25 offenses. They just held the #1 offense in the country (Gonzaga) to 69 pts on 42.4% shooting. I don't see Michigan State topping those numbers, so I'm clearly siding w/ the underdog in this one. 10* Texas Tech | |||||||
03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (2:20 ET): Just as Kentucky has gotten back one of its key cogs (PJ Washington), Auburn has lost one of theirs (Chuma Okeke). This turn of events is obviously a decided edge for the already favored Wildcats and I've got no hesitation about laying the short number here. UK swept the regular season series, winning by two on the road and by 27 at home. While it is quite unlikely the beatdown will be as severe here as it was in Lexington, UK should win by more than they did down in Auburn. They scored 80+ in both previous games and are much better defensive team compared to the Tigers. Kentucky has been outstanding defensively in this Tournament, holding all three of its opponents under 60 points. That will obviously be tested by an Auburn team that's shooting the lights out right now (53.5 FG% L2 Games). But I view the Wildcats as being up to the challenge here. They are top 10 (8th) in defensive efficiency and all three Tournament opponents have been held under 40% shooting. Obviously, Auburn is more prolific than any of UK's three previous opponents, but they were held to 32.8% shooting the last time they met. Being without their third leading scorer (Okeke) obviously hurts as well. Okeke had 20 pts last round vs. North Carolina. Of the six teams still left standing in this Tournament, five are ranked in the top nine nationally in defensive efficiency. Auburn is the other, way off the pace at 43rd. This should end up costing them given the value of this particular metric. They can't continue to shoot above 40% from three-point range. The Tigers have given up at least 75 points in every game in the Tournament, and again, they gave up 82 and 80 points to Kentucky in the regular season. They are looking to do something incredible here - that's beating Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky in three straight Tournament games, but they ultimately fall short here. 10* Kentucky | |||||||
03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia UNDER 126.5 | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
8* Under Purdue/Virginia (8:49 ET): Purdue has been on fire in this Tournament, averaging 93 points its last two games while shooting almost 54.0% overall from the field. They have already made a record-setting 40 three-pointers in three games. Carsen Edwards has suddenly found his shot again, making 14 of those 40 three-pointers, and scoring 71 total pts the L2 games. But hey Purdue, to quote a very bad song, "Meet Virginia." The Hoos are #1 in the country in scoring defense and should drastically slow down this Boilermakers barrage. Take the Under here. It hasn't just been Edwards lighting up the scoreboard for Purdue. Senior Ryan Cline turned in the best game of his career Thursday vs. Tennessee, scoring 27 points by making 7 of 10 three-point attempts. Anything close to a repeat performance should not be expected. Also, with Edwards, he had been cold coming into the Tournament. He's the 1st player since Davidson's Steph Curry to score 25+ pts in four straight NCAA Tournament games (goes back to last year), but that streak should end here. Note Virginia has allowed 70+ points only three times all year and two of those were against Duke. Remember Purdue's 99 points against Tennessee came w/ OT. No matter who they played here, it would have been difficult to continue their torrid shooting of the last two games. But drawing Virginia all but ensures it will come to an end. Virginia held Oregon w/o a single made basket for the final 5:43 of their 53-49 Sweet 16 victory. Oregon had scored 73 points the game before that. Virginia also held an Oklahoma team that almost went for 100 in Round 1 to just 51 points. By the way, Purdue can play some defense too as was evident by them holding Old Dominion and Villanova to 26.9% and 34.5% shooting respectively in the first two games. All three Virginia tourney games have stayed Under. 8* Under Purdue/Virginia | |||||||
03-30-19 | Texas Tech +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (6:09 ET): Once again, we have an underdog w/ a better defensive efficiency rating. Actually, as long as Texas Tech stays in this Tournament, they'll be in this role. Well, provided they're the underdog. No team in the country has a better defensive efficiency rating than the Red Raiders, who have completely stifled their three tournament opponents, holding them to 57, 58 and 44 points. The performances in the last two rounds were really impressive considering they were against Michigan (LY's national runner-up) and a Buffalo team that was among the highest scoring in the country during the regular season. Right now, I wouldn't bet against this team when getting points. This is an interesting battle as it pits the country's #1 defensive team against the #1 offensive team. Gonzaga has looked every bit the part of a #1 seed so far, winning all three of its games by double digits. But Texas Tech will easily be their stiffest test to date. In the Sweet 16, the Zags faced a Florida State team that was top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Seminoles were able to hold them to 72 points on 40.3% shooting. Again, Texas Tech is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, so I am of the belief they're going to do an even better job here. None of the Red Raiders' opponents in this Tournament have shot better than 37.1% from the field. Texas Tech has also won all three of its games by double digits. Their average margin of victory is actually is 18 PPG w/ every win coming by at least 15 pts. What they just did to Michigan Thursday night was very impressive. They held the Wolverines to 44 pts on 32.7% shooting, making them look like a bad team. Michigan missed its first 18 three-point attempts. That came after holding Buffalo, who averaged 84.5 PPG and had just scored 91, to 58. The Red Raiders are allowing just 53.0 PPG in the Tournament and have held seven opponents under 50 this season. Remember that Gonzaga was held under 50 in the WCC Tournament Final, so it wouldn't be unprecedented. 10* Texas Tech | |||||||
03-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Duke UNDER 144.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Va Tech/Duke (9:39 ET): It's rare to see conference rivals meet in the NCAA Tournament (at least prior to the Final Four), but this is already the second time it's happened in this Tournament. The first was Michigan State crushing Minnesota 70-50. Duke is hoping for a similar outcome here in the Sweet 16 against Virginia Tech. These ACC foes met just once in the regular season and it was actually the Hokies pulling a 77-72 upset (as 3-pt dogs) in Blacksburg. That game just managed to sneak Over, but I'll call for a lower-scoring rematch and take the Under here. Duke is 0-2 ATS so far in the Tournament and maybe even a little lucky to be here. They escaped by the skin of their teeth against UCF Sunday, winning by one as 13.5-pt chalk. (You may remember I had UCF). That was after failing to cover as huge 27.5-pt favorites in Rd 1 against North Dakota State (won by 23). The Blue Devils did hit 10 three-pointers against UCF, which is a high number for them. Believe it or not, Duke was one of the WORST three-point shooting teams in the entire country in the regular season, at least in terms of percentage. They shot just 30.2% from behind the arc, which was tied w/ SIU-Edwardsville for 339th (out of 354 teams) in the country. A big difference between this game and the regular season matchup is Zion Williamson. He missed the regular season contest. Of course, so did Va Tech's best player Justin Robinson. With the respective top scorers back in the lineup, you might expect a higher scoring game. But I don't think that'll happen. Va Tech's last four games have stayed Under the total. The Under is 6-2 in Duke's last eight games and they haven't gone Over in B2B games since January. (The UCF game went Over). In fact, that was the ONLY time they went Over in B2B games all season (Under is 25-10-1 in all Duke games). Va Tech has had one of the easiest paths to the Sweet 16 of any team (St. Louis, Liberty) and still shot poorly in those games. 10* Under Va Tech/Duke | |||||||
03-29-19 | Auburn v. North Carolina UNDER 165 | Top | 97-80 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
8* Under Auburn/North Carolina (7:29 ET): Auburn seems like a real "trendy" dog here coming off the beatdown of Kansas. I played the Tigers in that 2nd round matchup, citing that they'd been priced as a top 15 team most of the year, but were a value in that spot. Sure enough, they came through. But here I think they're priced appropriately against top seeded North Carolina. The total has moved pretty significantly though, to the point that I now see value on the Under. Everyone's expecting a shootout here and because of that we're able to exploit a high number. Take the Under. So Auburn has now won 10 straight. Most of the wins have been close games, but the one over Kansas was not as the Tigers jumped out to a huge early lead (51-25 at half!) and coasted from there. I seriously doubt they'll be able to shoot that well again (were 52.5% for the game), especially from three-point range (were 13 of 30). For the season, Auburn shot only 43.1% away from home. North Carolina has held its last five opponents to a 40.1 FG%. That includes TWO games vs. Duke! The Tar Heels rank 11th in the country in defensive efficiency. Of the 16 teams remaining, Auburn actually has the second lowest defensive efficiency rating (only slightly ahead of LSU). So it will be a challenge keeping UNC's offense in check. Roy Williams' team averages 86.0 PPG, third most in the country. But they too shot the ball really well, especially from behind the three-point line, in their last game. Not sure they'll be able to match those percentages, even though Washington is a superior defensive team compared to Auburn. The Under is 5-0 in North Carolina's last five NCAA Tournament games and also 5-0 the last five times they've been coming off a SU win by 20+ points. 8* Under Auburn/North Carolina | |||||||
03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | Top | 49-53 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 17 m | Show |
10* Virginia (9:59 ET): Given the way this Tournament has gone ("the chalk has walked!"), the idea that Oregon could somehow win here seems a little far-fetched. Admittedly, the Ducks are as hot as any team in the country right as they come into the Sweet 16 on a 10-game win streak, both SU and ATS. But Virginia has been one of the best teams in the country all season. They still don't get enough credit because they lost in the first round last year to a 16-seed. But that's fueling them this year and after a bad 1st half in the 1st round, the Cavailiers have looked completely dominant. I'm laying the points here in what is my top play for the entire Sweet 16. For the first half against Gardner-Webb, there had to be a sense of dread in Charlottesville. Virginia was down six going into the break and it looked like UMBC all over again. But this time the Hoos put together a vintage second half performance, holding Gardner-Webb to just 20 points and Virginia won comfortably (by 15). Then, in the second round, they faced an Oklahoma team that had turned in one of the Tournament's best 1st round performances (95-72 win over Ole Miss). Virginia held the Sooners to just 51 points. In terms of scoring defense, no team in the country is better than Virginia as they allow only 55.0 PPG. Historically, the matchup of a #1 vs. #12 seed in the Sweet 16 has gone the way you'd think. Top seeds have absolutely dominated, going a perfect 19-0 SU head to head. None have been closer than seven points. Top seeds are also 9-3 ATS the previous 12 matchups with an average margin of victory of 16.8 PPG. All 12 won by at least eight points. Overall, #1 seeds are 14-1 SU, 12-2-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 since 2014. The odds are not in Oregon's favor here and I expect Virginia's defensive prowess to be on full display in this one as they roll onto the Elite 8 w/ a third straight double digit victory. 10* Virginia | |||||||
03-28-19 | Purdue +1.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 73 h 12 m | Show |
8* Purdue (7:29 ET): I think Purdue is the better team here. Granted Matt Painter's team has not done well in the past vs. top three seeds in this Tournament, especially in this round. His Boilermakers are 0 for their last 7 against the spread when taking on a top three seed including losses by a combined 45 pts the L2 years in the Sweet 16. But Tennessee HC Rick Barnes is a big money burner in this event himself, going 1-9-1 ATS his L11 NCAA Tournament games, including 0-2 this year. Through the first two rounds, I don't think there's any denying that Purdue has looked better than Tennessee. Now, for a half, the Vols looked unstoppable against Iowa. They were up as much as 25 on Sunday. But then came the second half. They blew the entire lead and needed OT just to advance. As an Iowa bettor, I was pretty grateful, as the Hawkeyes ended up losing by only six as 8.5-point dogs. It was only a seven-point win for Tennessee in the 1st round against Colgate, whom they allowed to hit 15 three-pointers. In my analysis for the Iowa game, I mentioned that defending the three-point line has been an issue all season for the Vols. Opponents are hitting 38.4% of their 3-pt attempts against them outside of Knoxville. Iowa was even below that percentage (w/ only seven makes), so in that regard Tennessee was actually a bit lucky. There's been no luck needed for the way Purdue handled Old Dominion and Villanova in the first two rounds of this Tournament. They dominated both, winning by 13 and 26 respectively. The showing against 'Nova, the defending National Champs, was obviously the more impressive of the two. The game was never in doubt as the Boilermakers took a 43-24 lead into halftime. The shooting percentages they've allowed in two games are pretty ridiculous. ODU shot 26.9% while Nova was at 34.5%. On offense, Carsen Edwards was ridiculous w/ a 42-point game against Nova, including nine made threes. Similar three-point shooting from the Boilermakers here is what I expect. Look for them to finally clear that Sweet 16 "hurdle." 8* Purdue | |||||||
03-28-19 | Purdue v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Purdue/Tennessee (7:29 ET): While Tennessee's issues do mainly reside at the defensive end, the bottom line is their game vs. Iowa would have stayed Under if not for OT. Instead, the extra five minutes ensured the Vols' sixth straight Over, a streak which dates back to the end of the regular season. Here they are matched up against a Purdue team that has held its first two Tournament opponents to field goal percentages of 26.9 (Old Dominion) and 34.5 (Villanova). The Boilermakers probably won't shoot as well here as they did against 'Nova (though I still have them winning!), thus I'm looking Under. Though the field goal percentage allowed against Villanova was higher than it was in the first round matchup w/ ODU, Purdue's defensive effort was probably more impressive in the second game. Villanova is a team that came in ranked 16th in the country in offensive efficiency. Yet the Wildcats could do nothing offensively against the Boilermakers as they made only 20 shots on just 58 attempts. Now Tennessee is obviously a better team than Villanova, but the Vols did just get held to only 22 points in the second half by an Iowa team that is not good defensively. Granted, that came after a big 1st half. But the Vols aren't likely to have a half that prolific again. If there is one saving grace for Tennessee in this game, it's that Purdue is likely to have an offensive dropoff themselves from the last round. They absolutely torched Villanova to the tune of 87 points on 53.1% shooting, led by Carsen Edwards' 42 points and nine made threes. Edwards had been struggling w/ his three-point shot prior to that game, so he'll definitely have a decrease in production here (even if his teammates pick him up some). Bottom line is Purdue is going to win here, but they won't score anywhere close to as many as they did in the last game. 8* Under Purdue/Tennessee | |||||||
03-28-19 | Florida State +7.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 53 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:09 ET): This is a matchup I'd hoped for in the Sweet 16 when the brackets were first released. Florida State has a higher defensive efficiency rating (key metric!) than Gonzaga and should easily be able to stay within this number, if not pull the outright upset. One could point to the fact the Seminoles have only had to play a 13 (Vermont) and 12 seed (Murray State) to get here, but the Zags' path of Farleigh Dickinson (16-seed playing for a second time in three days) and Baylor was hardly a "murderer's row" either. Also, Florida State beat Gonzaga in LY's Sweet 16 (as a lower seed), 75-60 as six-point underdogs. Now I did play against the 'Noles in Round 1. But they were laying a decent number to an experienced Vermont team. For three-quarters of the game, it was neck & neck before FSU pulled away late (but still did not cover). Their Round 2 performance was much more impressive though as they destroyed Ja Morant and Murray State, 90-62 as only four-point chalk. They held the Racers to 32.8% shooting as a team and it was a blowout going into halftime. FSU has now won 16 of its last 18 games, the only two losses coming to Duke and North Carolina. Both teams are better in 2019 than they were in 2018. Gonzaga's offensive numbers are off the charts this season, but like I said earlier - Florida State is the better team defensively here. The Seminoles have the kind of size that Gonzaga normally does not have to deal w/ in the West Coast Conference or even so far in this Tournament (Baylor is an undersized team). Yes, the 'Noles will be w/o Phil Cofer here (father passed away), but they were w/o him against Murray State as well. I think they honor their teammate w/ another strong performance here. Last year, they held the Zags to 33.9% overall shooting and 25.0% from three-point range. Under HC Leonard Hamilton, the Seminoles are 7-1 ATS w/ five outright wins as a NCAA Tournament underdog. 8* Florida State | |||||||
03-27-19 | Colorado +5.5 v. Texas | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Colorado (9:05 ET): Both teams are obviously 2-0 here in the NIT, but while Colorado has covered both of its games (albeit barely), Texas is 0-2 ATS in theirs. The Buffs have won seven of eight overall, the only loss coming to top seed Washington in the Pac 12 Tournament. The Longhorns have now failed to cover five in a row dating back to the end of the regular season and are just 3-5 SU the L8 games. I realize this game is in Austin, but Colorado looks like the much better team and I'll gladly take the points here. Colorado really dominated its second round NIT game against Norfolk State as they led by 20 at the half and coasted from there. They were actually pretty fortunate to cover the large spread (-14) as Norfolk State missed 11 of 21 free throws in a 16-point loss. But now the Buffaloes are back to being underdogs, a role they have actually not been in very much lately. Playing w/o rest in the Pac 12 Tournament, they did "upset" Oregon State as 2.5-point pups. Other than that, Washington is the only team they've been a dog against in the last month. Honestly, it may be more important that Texas is a favorite than Colorado being the underdog. The Longhorns have been huge money burners as chalk this season, going 7-15 ATS in that role w/ eight outright losses. Their two wins in this Tournament have both been by six points or less and by just eight points total. They are just 18-16 SU on the season, by the way. The 1st round game against South Dakota State saw the 'Horns make 15 three-pointers (unlikely to be repeated here) and the game against Xavier went to OT. Better team is getting points. 10* Colorado | |||||||
03-26-19 | Charleston Southern v. Hampton OVER 157 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Over Charleston Southern/Hampton (7:00 ET): This is an interesting matchup as the teams are conference rivals, playing in a postseason tournament. It's not a longstanding rivalry, mind you. Hampton just joined the Big South last year after leaving the MEAC. The first meeting in nearly 20 years took place back in January w/ Hampton winning 92-84 as four-point road dogs. As you can see from that final score, it was a high-scoring game, one where the Over cashed by 30 points. The total is significantly higher (by about 10 pts!) for this rematch in the CIT, but I still don't think it's nearly high enough. Take the Over. Hampton is one of the highest scoring teams in the entire country. They play at a pretty fast place (44th in adjusted tempo) and average 81.7 points per game. They've been either right at or slightly below that season average the last three games. But expecting an increase in scoring tonight does seem logical. The Pirates' scoring average jumps to a whopping 86.4 PPG at home where they are shooting 37.3% from three-point range. They scored 81 here in their opening round game of the CIT, beating St. Francis (NY) by nine. While that game just managed to sneak Under, the Over is still 18-9 in all Hampton games this season. Charleston Southern has seen the Under cash in seven straight games, so things are "due" to swing the other way. They shot better than 50% from the floor in a 68-66 win over Florida Atlantic in opening round CIT action while also holding the Owls to just 36.2%. Despite those disparate overall shooting percentages, the game remained close because Charleston Southern could not make a three (4 of 23) while FAU was 11 of 30 from behind the arc. Charleston Southern also hardly got to the free throw line, taking only six attempts from there the entire game! I would expect the Buccaneers three-point and free throw shooting to increase tonight. At the same time, they let Hampton shoot 55% overall and 13 of 25 from 3-pt range in the regular season matchup. So I expect their defensive numbers won't be as good as the last game either. 10* Over Charleston Southern/Hampton | |||||||
03-25-19 | Longwood v. DePaul -15 | Top | 89-97 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
8* DePaul (8:00 ET): Longwood is outclassed here as they face a team from the Big East Conference. DePaul may not be Villanova, but they are certainly head and shoulders above their opponents in this one. Longwood pulled a real stunner in their first CBI game, beating Southern Miss 90-68 as 9.5-point home dogs. I'm not entirely sure how or why Longwood ended up w/ the home court advantage for that game, given Southern Miss was a 20-win team in the regular season. Longwood has a losing record (16-17 SU overall) and went just 5-11 in the Big South. DePaul also delivered an impressive performance in 1st round CBI action by hanging 100 pts on Central Michigan. They gave up 86, but it hardly mattered as the Blue Demons couldn't miss and hit the century mark for the THIRD time this season and second in four games. We should expect them to score a ton again this evening while you probably can't say the same for Longwood. The Lancers did make 18 three-pointers and shoot 52.6% overall against Southern Miss, but they are averaging a scant 64.8 PPG away from home this season. That's a huge drop (double digits) from what they average at home. Longwood clearly "wanted it more" than Southern Miss as they had way more energy at the start of the game. They raced out to a 25-13 lead and never looked back. A similar start is unlikely tonight. I know this seems like a lot of points to lay in a postseason tournament, but Longwood is probably the worst team still playing college basketball at this point. The Lancers had lost four in a row before beating Southern Miss in what I'll call a "gifted home game." DePaul can score w/ the best of 'em and should have no problems here. 8* DePaul | |||||||
03-25-19 | Coastal Carolina v. West Virginia OVER 157 | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Coastal Carolina/West Virginia (7:00 ET): A major difference between this year's team and past editions of Bob Huggins' basketball at WVU is on the defensive end. The Mountaineers did turn in one of the better defensive efforts of the season in the CBI opener against Grand Canyon, holding the Antelopes to just 63 points on 40% shooting. For the season, WVU is allowing 76.5 PPG. It'll be a much stiffer test in tonight's quarterfinal matchup against a Coastal Carolina team that just dropped 81 in its last game (despite less than stellar shooting!) I like the Over in this one. Coastal Carolina beat Howard in its first CBI game, 81-72 as 11-point favorites. That was a home game for the Chanticleers and you do have to worry some about them taking their act on the road where they've gone just 6-12 SU this season. I still anticipate them scoring plenty here as they average 76.4 PPG overall. But on the defensive end, they've now given up at least 70 pts in nine straight games. That's quite a bit, especially considering they've given up at least 80 in five of those nine games. On the bright side, Coastal Carolina hasn't shot well at all its last three games (just 34.9%) and I expect that number to improve - by a lot - tonight. Before holding Grand Canyon to just 63 points last Wednesday, West Virginia had given up 70 or more in eight straight games. Five of those games, they gave up at least 82. Now, I realize that was against Big 12 competition, but Coastal Carolina can score w/ the best of them. The Chanticleers are shooting 36% from three-point range. WVU has allowed 76.5 PPG over the course of the season, which is kind of stunning. Look for this to be a high-scoring game. 8* Over Coastal Carolina/West Virginia | |||||||
03-25-19 | Utah Valley +2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
8* Utah Valley State (7:00 ET): Another quarterfinal matchup in the CBI, this one featuring two teams that won, but failed to cover their first game. Utah Valley State is off a wild 92-84 win over pesky Cal State Northridge where they were 11-point favorites. Now they're the underdog against a USF team that struggled to get by Stony Brook (needed overtime) here in Tampa. The Bulls only won 82-79 (as 7.5-pt chalk), dropping to 1-7-1 ATS their last nine games. I realize UVSU has failed to cover three in a row, but I wouldn't trust South Florida as favorites moving forward. Take the points. Utah Valley State had a solid finish to its regular season and has lost only one time in the last 10 games. That was to Grand Canyon in the WAC Tournament semifinals. The Wolverines finished second in the conference, behind only New Mexico State, who almost upset Auburn in the NCAA Tournament. Since the starting the year 1-3 (two losses to NCAA Tournament teams, the other at BYU), Utah Valley State has gone 24-6 its last 30 games w/ only one loss by more than seven points. This is a pretty good team and they're dangerous in the underdog role considering they average 77.6 PPG. South Florida stumbled badly down the stretch, not only at the betting window, but straight up as well. The three-point win over Stony Brook was just the Bulls' second win in the last nine games. The other was by five, over a terrible Tulane team that didn't win a single conference game and just fired its head coach. In other words, I wouldn't want to be laying points w/ this group right now. The Bulls actually trailed Stony Brook by 18 (again, here at home!) at the half. The better team is getting points in this one, in my opinion. 8* Utah Valley State | |||||||
03-24-19 | Ohio State +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 59-74 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (8:40 ET): Ohio State rewarded my faith in them by pulling a minor upset in Round 1, 62-59 over Iowa State as five-point pups. That was my biggest play of the Round of 64 and I came away even more impressed w/ the Buckeyes than I was going in. They do need to feed big man Kaleb Wesson more and I suspect that will happen here. Though OSU needed to stave off a potential game-winner from the Cyclones, they led virtually the whole way and only trailed briefly in the second half. Few will give the Buckeyes a chance here, but I'm taking the points. Houston is the second round opponent for Ohio State. The regular season champs from the American Conference looked very impressive in Round 1, beating Georgia State by 29 as 12.5-point chalk. It was the third time in the last four games that the Cougars, a very good defensive team, held their opponent to 30.0% shooting or worse. But the competition hasn't been that strong as the other two times came against Memphis and UConn. UH did lose the American Tournament Final to Cincinnati, a team Ohio State has beaten this year. I get the Cougars have been beaten all of three times this season, but they're laying too many points. I said this in the writeup for Ohio State in the last round, but the return of Wesson makes all the difference in the world w/ this team. A three-game losing streak at the end of the regular season coincided w/ Wesson being suspended, but he led the way w/ 21 points against Iowa State. The team is 3-0 ATS since he returned to the lineup, losing only once and that was to Michigan State in the Big 10 Tournament, by only seven points. Ohio State is undervalued right now, bottom line. The Big 10 is playing too well as a whole not to grab this many points. 8* Ohio State | |||||||
03-24-19 | Buffalo +4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 58-78 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (6:10 ET): We're looking at a tournament almost bereft of major upsets. Entering play on Sunday, there's still a chance that every team seeded 3rd or higher could advance to the Sweet 16. That simply doesn't happen very often. Here, we have one of the few teams seeded 3rd or higher yet to make its way onto the Sweet 16, that being Texas Tech. The Red Raiders didn't have much problem w/ Northern Kentucky on Friday, winning 72-57 as 13-point chalk. They do own the nation's top defensive efficiency rating (per KenPom), but will be severely tested here by a Buffalo team that just put up 91 points in Round 1 and averages 85.1 PPG. Take the points. Buffalo, the two-time reigning MAC Champs, are in the second round of the Tournament for a second straight year. Last year, they came in as a relative unknown and pulled an upset of Arizona as a 13-seed before running into Kentucky. This year, things are much different. They were the favorite in Round 1 and played like it, completely dominating Arizona State. They're a dog in Round 2 yet again, but this time only as a 6-seed and w/ a real legit shot of advancing to the school's first ever Sweet 16. Tip your cap to the job done here by HC Nate Oats, whose team is 32-3 SU this season. That's tied w/ Houston for the best win percentage (.914) in all of D-I. Normally, I would side w/ a team that has the defensive efficiency Texas Tech does. But Buffalo is not often an underdog and is a legit Top 20 team in the country. This will be just the fourth time the Bulls have gotten points all season. They have scored 82 or more points in six consecutive games and were 5th in the regular season in points per game. This is also a veteran team. Their 1st round effort vs. Arizona State was as impressive as any turned in during the Round of 64. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
03-24-19 | UCF +13.5 v. Duke | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
8* Central Florida (5:15 ET): The expectation is for top seed Duke to roll here. But we'll take advantage of that and grab an inflated number w/ a UCF team that really surprised me in dominating a good VCU team 48 hours ago. Yes, VCU's leading scorer was hampered with an injury. But the Golden Knights building up a lead as big as 21 points is still impressive. They're getting double digits here, because after all "Duke is Duke," but given the Blue Devils' slow start vs. North Dakota State, I wouldn't be rushing to the betting window to lay the points here. In fact, I'll do just the opposite. Duke did get off to a slow start in Round 1. They trailed 16-seed North Dakota State (Carson Wentz's alma mater) early and were up only four at the break. Eventually, they did win rather easily, 85-62, but failed to cover the lofty 27.5-point spread. Coming into this year's NCAA Tournament as the prohibitive betting favorite (best odds to cut down the nets since 2015 Kentucky), the Blue Devils are definitely overvalued. They've covered only 3 of their last 12 games. UCF's defense can and is likely to keep them within the generous spread here. The Knights give up just 64.1 PPG on the year w/ opponents shooting 39.2%. They held VCU to 31.1% shooting. UCF did turn in a poor effort in the regular season finale vs. Temple (lost 67-62) and then ran into the host team in the American Tourney, Memphis, and lost badly. But other than those two games, the Golden Knights have covered every game dating back to February 10th. That's a 9-2 ATS run entering Sunday. They're 8-3 SU in that same stretch w/ two of the losses coming by five points. They've suffered only one loss by double digits all season and that was in the conference tournament at Memphis. UCF has the tallest player in the country on its roster (the 7'6" Tacko Fall), so look out Zion Williamson! Also, their HC (Johnny Dawkins) is a former Coach K assistant, so his former boss isn't going to look to embarrass him. 8* Central Florida | |||||||
03-24-19 | Iowa +8.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* Iowa (12:10 ET): The Big 10 has performed so admirably in this Tournament that how can you NOT consider Iowa plus the points here? The conference has only lost (straight up) twice so far and one of those was because Minnesota and Michigan State played one another (Wisconsin was the other). The Hawkeyes really impressed me in coming back from an early hole to defeat Cincinnati 79-72 as 4-pt dogs in the 1st Round. They were down 18-5 early, but from that point on, it was all Hawkeyes. In the second round, they'll be facing a Tennessee team that is NOT as strong as Cincinnati was defensively. I expect Iowa to score in this game and that makes taking the points the way to go. Also the game is in Columbus, a venue they regularly visit as Big 10 rivals of Ohio State. Tennessee did not cover its 1st round game vs. Colgate. The Vols won 77-70 as 17.5-pt chalk as they were outscored in the 2nd half. With 14 minutes remaining, the game was actually tied as Tennessee could not protect a 14-point lead. Like I said earlier, I expect Iowa to have plenty of success offensively in this game. They shoot 36.6% from three-point range and average 78.3 PPG overall. Even though it was season-high (15) three pointers allowed by Tennessee against Colgate, defending the three-point line has been an issue all year for the Vols. They let opponents shoot 38.7% from behind the arc outside of Knoxville for the year. If Colgate was able to have that kind of success, just imagine what the Hawkeyes can do. I'm not sure why Iowa isn't being given the respect it deserves here. Maybe it's their poor defensive efficiency rating, which normally would scare me off. But UT is no "great shakes" either defensively as they allow 77.8 PPG away from home and that's a big reason why I've never totally "bought in" on their success this season. Though still only 2-9 ATS the L11 games, Iowa is 5-1 SU/ATS at neutral sites in 2018-19 and rarely is getting this many points. 8* Iowa | |||||||
03-23-19 | Auburn -2 v. Kansas | Top | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
8* Auburn (9:40 ET): The lower seed is slightly favored here, which is telling. Now I understand, it's a 4 vs. 5 (seed) matchup, so the teams are rather evenly matched on paper. But I still feel we're getting some value here on Auburn due to the way their 1st round game vs. New Mexico State ended. The Tigers nearly blew all of a 13-point second half lead, holding on for a 78-77 victory thanks to some NMSU blunders in the closing minute. Ironically, I thought Auburn was a little overvalued for that 1st round matchup as they were coming off winning the SEC Tournament. But for much of the year, it's been a case of being undervalued and that is again the case tonight. Kansas was the only high seed to cover the spread in the afternoon session on Thursday. They ran away from Northeastern in an 87-53 beatdown that saw the Jayhawks completely dominate the second half. They shot 56 percent from the floor, but it won't be that easy again tonight. Nor are they likely to hold Auburn anywhere close to the 28.1 FG% they held Northeastern to. I think most would agree that this Kansas team is NOT as strong as past editions, so I'm not surprise they check in as the underdog here. Note that the Jayhawks are just 5-11 ATS coming off a SU win including 0-4 ATS if that SU win was by more than 20 points. Auburn is hot as they've won nine straight. A lot of those wins have been close, but they did destroy Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Final, a situation where I was on them. I've made the case multiple times this season that this is a Top 15 team and typically they are priced accordingly. The Tigers played much better than the final scored showed vs. New Mexico State and now don't have to win by any kind of significant margin. Kansas will not be able to rely on a 50-16 edge in points in the paint here like they did vs. Northeastern. Lay the short number. 8* Auburn | |||||||
03-23-19 | Florida v. Michigan OVER 123 | Top | 49-64 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Florida/Michigan (5:15 ET): These are two of the better defensive teams in the country, so it's no surprise the total opened really low. But it clearly opened too low as is evident by the fact we've seen some significant movement w/ the number. I'm following the $$$ on this one as "average games" from both sides would equal an Over. What I mean by that Florida scores 68.3 points per game and allows 63.6. Michigan scores 70.5 PPG and allows 58.5. The shooting percentages both teams allowed in Round 1 won't be matched here. Take the Over. Michigan met a clearly inferior opponent in Round 1 as they blew out 15-seed Montana 74-55. The Wolverines' extraordinary defense was on full display in that one as they held the Golden Grizzlies to just 33.3% in a game that was never really close. The Maize and Blue jumped out to an early double digit advantage, a much different start compared to when they faced Montana in LY's Tournament. Note it was Montana's second worst shooting percentage all season. Ironically, the Wolverines did allow more points this time against Montana. After beating them 61-47 LY, they'd go on to allow 63 in the next round to Houston (a game they won at the buzzer). Florida will be much tougher to defend compared to Montana, obviously. But similar to Michigan, the Gators won't have as easy a time stopping the Wolverines as they did vs. Nevada Thursday. The Wolf Pack were held to 34.5% shooting in a bad all-around performance by them. While Florida is 16-3 Under outside of Gainesville this season, they did recently shoot over 60% in a game (vs. Auburn), showing that they can "bring it" offensively. At the same time, Michigan will perform a lot better from three-point range than Nevada (5 of 24) did. All we need here is for both teams to score 62 pts and that really doesn't sound too difficult. 10* Over Florida/Michigan | |||||||
03-23-19 | Maryland +2.5 v. LSU | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
10* Maryland (12:10 ET): The defensive efficiency metric I lean so heavily on for handicapping this Tournament clearly favors Maryland in this second round matchup. The Terrapins are 24th in the country in defensive efficiency, LSU is 58th. Taking underdogs, no matter how small, with that kind of DE advantage is something I love to do. It was the strategy used in yday's big winners on Oklahoma and Washington. Neither of these teams covered Thursday, but LSU is a team I was NOT sold on for much of the regular season as they were a clear overachiever in the regular season. They also are playing w/o HC Will Wade, who is a part of the ongoing NCAA scandal. Take the points. Maryland spent a lot of their Round 1 game trailing Belmont. The Terps are a very young team w/ six freshman seeing time. No one in their rotation had ever won a NCAA Tourney game before Thursday. In the frontcourt are two players (Fernando, Smith) who will be in the NBA. In the backcourt is one of the Big 10's best guards, Anthony Cowan Jr, who shot just 3 of 18 against Belmont (including 1 of 10 on three-pointers). The fact the Terps still won in spite of their best player having "that kind of game" is a mark in their favor, especially w/ them falling into such an early hole (trailed by 12 in 1st half). Cowan won't shoot that poorly again here. LSU was far more in control of their 1st round game against Yale. The Tigers led by 16 at halftime and held on for a 79-74 win (but did not cover). However, the size advantage they enjoyed against Yale won't be present here. Now you can say the same for Maryland, who used size to its advantage against Belmont. However, a discussion of the LSU coaching situation bears repeating. Not having your head coach in this tournament is obviously not ideal. LSU has enjoyed a tremendous record in close games this year (including four OT wins in SEC play). You have to wonder if that luck is set to run out. I think it will. 10* Maryland | |||||||
03-22-19 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 78 h 28 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (9:50 ET): Iowa State is riding high right now, coming off an impressive win in the Big 12 Tournament. But I also believe said run makes the Cyclones somewhat susceptible to a 1st round upset. The committee did them no favors here w/ the draw of an undervalued Ohio State team, who most will disregard simply because they finished w/ a losing conference record. The Buckeyes do come into the Tournament having lost four of five. However, key to that was they were w/o their best player (Kaleb Wesson). He's back now and OSU is a live dog here. Take the points. The edge in defensive efficiency here goes to the Buckeyes, who rank a strong 27th in that category, which is the second highest rating for any double digit seed. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 59th in defensive efficiency, putting them right behind 13-seed UC Irvine. In terms of single digit seeds, only five have a lower defensive efficiency rating than the Cyclones and two of them are either an 8 or 9 seed. Something that must be remembered here is that Iowa State had lost six of eight going into the Big 12 Tournament. Now they're the "toast of the town." Ohio State played two horrible games w/o Wesson, losing by double digits at Purdue and Northwestern. They shot 33.3% and 29.6% in the two losses. But then they took Wisconsin to overtime (lost by 4) and Wesson returned. With Wesson back, they beat Indiana in the Big 10 Tourney before bowing out to top seed Michigan State (only lost by 7). Wesson's return is huge and makes the Buckeyes a much better team than how they looked down the stretch. Don't fall victim to recency bias, Ohio State is the play here. 10* Ohio State | |||||||
03-22-19 | Washington +3 v. Utah State | Top | 78-61 | Win | 100 | 76 h 32 m | Show |
8* Washington (6:50 ET): Here's yet another matchup where defensive efficiency is the key metric to lean on. Washington may have run into the buzzsaw known as "Oregon" in the Pac 12 Tournament Final, but Mike Hopkins' Huskies were regular season champs in the conference and that should mean something here. I realize that the Pac 12 was most certainly "down" this season, but the Huskies are a top 20 team in the country in defensive efficiency and that makes them a fantastic value getting points in this 1st round matchup w/ Utah State. Take the points. Utah State was a "bubble team" entering its conference tournament (Mt West), but took itself right off the bubble by winning in Las Vegas. They caught a break though when top seed Nevada was upset in the semifinals by San Diego State. That made for an easier than anticipated final, which the Aggies won 64-57 as six-point favorites. USU has won 10 straight to get to 28-6 SU on the year, but the level of competition in the Mt West isn't what it is in the Pac 12, even in a down year for the former. Utah State ranks only 47th in defensive efficiency, so again not sure they should be favored here against the regular season champs from a bigger (and better) conference. Washington plays a 2-3 zone as Hopkins is a Jim Boeheim disciple from Syracuse. My call is that Utah State is going to struggle to make shots against the unfamiliar defense. Also, when Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle is on the floor, the Huskies force a turnover on 25% of their opponents possessions. Utah State actually allows a lower FG% than Washington over the course of the season, but that's also thanks to facing the dregs of the Mountain West. Save for Nevada LY, the MWC has really struggled in this event. Utah State went 17-17 SU last year and was picked to finish NINTH in the Mountain West before the season started. The spot is likely "too big" for them. 8* Washington | |||||||
03-22-19 | Oregon v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 72-54 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (4:30 ET): This just might be the most fascinating line of the entire 1st round. Oregon is undoubtedly hot right now as they ran through the Pac 12 Tournament, winning three of their four games by double digits en route to garnering the automatic bid (which they needed). The Ducks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in March and being priced like it as they are essentially a "pick 'em" taking on a Wisconsin team that has spent much of this season ranked in the top 25. Under normal circumstances, I might consider Oregon in this spot. But this is a horrendous draw facing a team that ranks in the top five (nationally) in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin comes into the Tournament ranked #21 in the country at 23-10 SU overall. They've won six of their last eight games. The only two losses were by two to Indiana and to Michigan State in the Big 10 semis. There have been instances of the Badgers dropping B2B games before, but I just do not see it happening here. This is one of the top defensive teams in the country and that carries a lot of weight w/ me this time of year. They also have an efficient offense, led by Ethan Happ, who is one of the better individual players in this entire Tournament. Oregon will NOT enjoy the pace at which Wisconsin likes to play. Oregon has actually won eight in a row going back to the final game of February, including two wins over regular season champ Washington. But the Ducks also benefited from having played all of those opponents at least one time before. Here, that won't be the case and Wisconsin certainly doesn't play like most Pac 12 teams. The irony here is Oregon is actually no slouch defensively either. They are top 20 in the country. Had they been matched up w/ any other 5-seed, I would have probably taken them. But the selection committee dealt them a bad blow with Wisconsin, who is simply the better team in every facet of the game. Remember, the Ducks lost their best player (Bol Bol) mid-season, something that isn't even being talked about anymore. A month ago, no one would have thought they'd be in the Tournament, let alone have a chance to beat a team like Wisconsin on a neutral floor. 10* Wisconsin | |||||||
03-22-19 | Oklahoma +1.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 95-72 | Win | 100 | 69 h 23 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (12:40 ET): I'm again turning to defensive efficiency as the key metric for this NCAA Tournament and why not? It's been pretty foolproof in year's past. Three years ago, few would have predicted South Carolina would get to the Final Four. But the Gamecocks were actually top three in the country in D.E. (Last year's Cinderella, Loyola Chicago, was 17th). It's not the "end all, be all," but it is instructive. In this early Friday matchup, we're looking at Ole Miss team that ranks a rather pedestrian 65th in defensive efficiency going against an Oklahoma side that's 23rd. I think that's pretty significant when the better defensive team is taking points. Similar to last season, Oklahoma got off to a great start and then faltered a bit in the teeth of Big 12 play. The only difference is this year's team doesn't have Trae Young. But they are much better defensively (LY's squad ranked 85th in efficiency) and thus capable of winning at least one game (which the Young-led team failed to do LY). The Sooners are allowing a FG% of just 40.2 for the season, which is a very good number (2nd in the Big 12). While they did finish w/ a losing conference reccord, don't let that fool you. This is a team better designed to win in March than on a random Tuesday in January. Ole Miss was picked to finish 14th (last!) in the SEC before the season, so tip your cap to the job done here by 1st year HC Kermit Davis. But one thing Davis will have to work on moving forward is the defense, which is particularly suspect along the three-point line. Ole Miss opponents buried over 37% of 3PA, which is a really high number and will mean trouble against an OU squad that has multiple players that can shoot from deep. Also, the Rebels are one of the very worst teams in the field at defending in transition. The last five games saw them allow a FG% of 50.0 (!), so it's no wonder they lost four of the five games. 8* Oklahoma | |||||||
03-21-19 | St. Mary's +5.5 v. Villanova | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
10* St. Mary's (7:20 ET): If you recall past Tournament runs (of mine), then you know defensive efficiency is a metric I lean on heavily this time of year. It can be particularly useful when the underdog has a higher DE rating. Such is the case here w/ St. Mary's taking on Villanova. Make no mistake about, this Villanova team is nowhere close to LY's juggernaut that ended up cutting the nets down. That team ranked 11th nationally in DE. This year, the Wildcats ranked 73rd, which (in my eyes) makes them susceptible to suffering a 1st round upset. I'll take the points here. You have to wonder whether or not St. Mary's would be in the NCAA Tournament had it not been for an upset of Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament Final. But the Gaels did win that game and thus are here as an 11-seed. They are no defensive juggernaut (55th in efficiency), but they have a higher rating than 'Nova and are also comparable on the offensive end (21st vs. 16th). I just don't see the gap between the teams that the oddsmakers seem to. St. Mary's has won a NCAA Tournament game each of the last three years. They play at a very slow pace and also crash the glass at a solid rate. If they can beat the Zags, well, they are capable of beating anyone on any given night. Villanova entered LY's Tournament as the betting favorite. That is certainly not the case this year. While they did win both the Big East regular season title and tournament, the league was down. The Wildcats also won the last two games by just four (Xavier) and two (Seton Hall) points. Also, despite a high number of attempts from behind the three-point line, the Wildcats aren't converting at their usual rate in 2018-19. I've had this team earmarked as having the potential for suffering an outright loss in the 1st round for some time. I'm not wavering from that. 10* St. Mary's | |||||||
03-21-19 | Abilene Christian +23 v. Kentucky | Top | 44-79 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 19 m | Show |
8* Abeline Christian (7:10 ET): Little is known about 15-seed Abilene Christian. But Kentucky HC John Calipari seems at least a little scared, at least when it comes to those particular Wildcats' three-point shooting. And for good reason. Abilene Christian is connecting at a somewhat ridiculous 38.6% from behind the three-point line this year. Granted, the level of competition in the Southland is nothing close to what the Wildcats will see here. But given their proficiency from behind the arc and how many points they're getting, I think the underdog is a strong call here. No one will give them a chance. I think they'll outperform expectations rather easily. So here's the deal on Abilene Christian. They were NOT regular season champs in the Southland (finished 2nd), but did unseat New Orleans in the Tournament Final, 77-60, and were 4.5-point favorites in that game. This is their 1st ever NCAA Tournament berth, but it's an experienced group w/ three seniors and one junior among the starting five. Admittedly, it's not a team w/ a lot of height and depth took a hit when two reserves were dismissed earlier in the year. But this team's level of three-point shooting can keep them in any game. Kentucky was really strong down the stretch and should have beaten Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. But they faltered late and lost that game. As per usual, UK has a young roster. They've got plenty of talent, but I can see the players looking past this game and onto the next round. They've only covered 1 of their last 6 games. Also, Coach Cal's team will not be able to trade threes w/ Abilene Christian. Only 23.6% of UK's points come from behind the arc. That's bottom 20 in the country. The three-point shot alone should be able to keep the underdog within the generous spread here. 8* Abeline Christian | |||||||
03-21-19 | Vermont +9 v. Florida State | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Vermont (2:00 ET): I'm seen "some" go so far as to label Florida State a "Final Four Darkhorse." Maybe that's true, but the designation has also made the Seminoles a tad bit overvalued here in Round 1. I concede that the Noles have lost only twice since January 22nd. Those losses were to North Carolina and the ACC Championship Game against Duke. They're 14-2 SU the L16 games. But this Vermont team is not to be taken lightly. The America East Champs play great defense and rebound shockingly well given their lack of height. It's also been a two-year journey back to the Tourney for the Catamounts. Take the points. Vermont fans feel center Anthony Lamb is as good as any player in the country. He was certainly the best player in his conference. The Catamounts allow just 62.6 PPG, which is the 16th best in the entire country. In conference play, they allowed just 0.885 points per possession. The last five games saw them allow an average of just 52.6 PPG. Only three teams in the country gave up fewer offensive rebounds. Something else that's key is how often Florida State sends its opponents to the free throw line and how good Vermont is at converting when they get to the charity stripe. Unaccustomed to being an underdog, Vermont will be very motivated here. By the way, this game is being played in Hartford, which is much closer to Burlington than it is Tallahassee. Back to the journey. Last year, Vermont was one of the top mid-majors in the country. But on their home floor, they were upset by UMBC (on a buzzer beater). We all know what happened w/ UMBC (became 1st 16-seed to win a NCAA Tourney Game). Vermont was not going to be denied this year, however. They got revenge on UMBC is this year's America East Final and here they are, a year more experienced. I think that after making a run to the ACC Final, FSU is due for a letdown. Vermont is the kind of team that pulls upsets in this Tournament. 8* Vermont | |||||||
03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's OVER 152.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over Arizona State/St. John's (9:10 ET): I'm not entirely sure either of these teams belong in the field of 68, but that's all "water under the bridge" now. Arizona State has won six of eight w/ both losses coming to an Oregon team that's as hot as anyone in the country right now. Meanwhile, St. John's is really limping into the Big Dance as they've lost five of seven, including a rather humiliating 86-54 loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. Neither of these teams are exactly defensive stalwarts, so I'll be going Over in this Opening Round matchup Wednesday. Arizona State comes in averaging a healthy 77.8 PPG and should have little difficulty here scoring against a St. John's team whose last five opponents have combined to shoot over 50% from the field. The Johnnies are allowing almost 80 PPG when away from home, which is a pretty frightening number for a NCAA Tournament team. Four of those last five Red Storm opponents have scored at least 81 pts, including Xavier twice and the Musketeers were one of the weakest offensive teams in the Big East. Overall, St. John's ranks an ugly 111th in defensive efficiency. Only 15 teams that made the field rank lower. But ASU is exactly adept at limiting points, even though they held opponents to a 41.3 FG%. St. John's comes in averaging 77.5 PPG, so they also should "get theirs" tonight. All five of their starters are averaging double figures, led by Shamorie Ponds, who scored 25 or more points 10 times in the regular season. Ponds averages 19.5 PPG and topped 20 in nine straight games at one point. The Johnnies had seen four straight Overs before shooting just 32.8% in the loss to Marquette. But Arizona State is only 78th in defensive efficiency, so we'll see much better shooting here. 10* Over Arizona State/St. John's | |||||||
03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple +3.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
10* Temple (9:10 ET): Belmont is the rare at-large NCAA Tournament entrant. The Bruins tied for the regular season title in the OVC (w/ Murray State), but fell to the Racers (who are led by the sensational Ja Morant) in the Tourney Final. I think it's nice that the Bruins got into the field of 68 (they were deserving!), but this is a much tougher draw than most realize. I reckon that Belmont will be the popular play b/c of the story here, but it's a little surprising they are favored considering Temple is the better defensive team and played a far tougher schedule in the American. I'm taking the points here. Temple had an early exit in the American Tourney, losing to a lower seed (Wichita State) in the quarterfinals, 80-74 as 1.5-pt chalk. They limited the Shockers to 39.1% from the field, but the problem was the Owls had their own "off-shooting night." The Owls finished 3rd in the American, behind only Houston and Cincinnati. They were one of only two American teams to beat Houston in the regular season. While an extremely fortunate 4-0 in overtime games this year, the Owls were rarely blown out. Their largest loss (18 pts) was to Tulsa of all teams. The only other DD loss came to Villanova. They went 6-3-1 ATS as underdogs. It's not that Temple is that great defensively; it's also that Belmont is pretty bad at that end of the floor. The Bruins rank an ugly 127th in defensive efficiency, which is a key metric I lean heavily on this time of year. Belmont does shoot the three extremely well (37.4%), but Temple has fared well against such teams, going 8-0 ATS the L2 years vs. teams that shoot at least 37% from behind the arc. I don't think we'll see the usual three-point sharpshooting here from Belmont. They were just 7 of 32 (21.8%) vs. Murray State in the OVC Tourney Final, a potentially bad sign. Temple has an experienced backcourt, led by the AAC's top scorer Shizz Alston Jr. They get the cash. 10* Temple | |||||||
03-19-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Prairie View A&M UNDER 150 | Top | 82-76 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
8* Under Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M (6:40 ET): With the exception of North Carolina Central (who plays tomorrow), these are the two worst teams in the entire field of 68. Because of what UMBC did to Virginia LY, we can no longer automatically "write off" a 16 seed's chances, however, odds are that whomever wins here won't be celebrating for long. That's because the winner draws Gonzaga. Neither team here is noted for its defense, but playing in the "big time" figures to have a somewhat drastic impact on the respective offenses. I'll take the Under. Farleigh Dickinson is the champion of the NEC (North Eastern Conference). They tied (w/ St. Francis PA) for the regular season title, then beat St. Francis in the NEC Tournament Final. So that's how they got here. But they are 0-5 SU all-time in the NCAA Tournament, losing by an average of 14 PPG. The Knights do shoot the ball very well from three-point range, 40.3% in fact, which ranks 5th in the entire country! But they also play at a very slow tempo and typically don't throw it up early on in the shot clock. If their perimeter shooting is off here, then it figures to be quite the long night offensively for FDU. Conversely, Prairie View A&M will want to speed this game up. The regular season and tournament champs of the SWAC enter the Big Dance on an amazing run, having won 21 of their last 22 games. The Aggies put up some real "eye-popping" numbers in the SWAC Tournament, including dropping 92 on TX Southern in the Final. They've scored at least 81 pts in five of their last six games. But this game is a whole different story against an unfamiliar foe. A&M is actually one of the WORST three-point shooting teams in the entire field, if not country, at 30.8%. But the good news is they do guard the three-point line well, which will come in handy against the jump shooters of FDU. The Aggies rank 31st in the country in 3PT FG% defense and also do a great job at forcing turnovers. My read is that this will not be a typical game - for either side - as it figures to be pretty slow by Prairie View A&M standards while FDU will not be getting off the usual number of three pointers. 8* Under Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M | |||||||
03-17-19 | Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
8* Georgia State (2:00 ET): The Sun Belt Championship Game has wormed its way onto Selection Sunday, but this matchup between UT Arlington and Georgia State may have the most value on the board. The top two seeds benefited tremendously from the SBC Tourney format, which gave both of them a bye into the semifinals, which means they each only had to win one game to get here. Those games were played yday w/ Georgia State beating Texas State 59-46 & UT Arlington beating Georgia Southern 67-58. Georgia State won both regular season matchups against UT Arlington and thus is the top seed here. I look for them to make it 3 for 3 on Sunday. Lay the points. You may remember Georgia State from a few years ago when they pulled a historic upset (15-seed over a 2) against Michigan State. Ron Hunter is still the coach here and the program is obviously doing well. The Panthers hold non-conference victories this year over East Tennessee State, Alabama, Georgia and a St. Bonaventure team that may end up making the Big Dance. I put a high priority on defense this time of year and Georgia State certainly turned in a strong effort on that end of the floor yday. They held Texas State to 21.8% shooting (season-low for an opponent) and only 15 first half points. It was the Panthers' seventh win in their last eight games and they are 4-0 SU/ATS L4. The two regular seasons wins over UT Arlington both saw Georgia State play outstanding defense. They held the Mavericks to 37.5% shooting overall and just 10 of 52 from three-point range. In the home game, UT Arlington shot just 2 of 25 from behind the arc! Despite attempting far more shots, the Mavericks couldn't get the job done either game. Now they did cover in both losses. They lost by five as 6.5-pt home dogs and six as 8-pt road dogs. So this looks like a value on the favorite here. UT Arlington is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run, but that ends here. 8* Georgia State | |||||||
03-17-19 | Auburn +4.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 84-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Auburn (1:00 ET): A late rally yday led to Tennessee stunning Kentucky in one SEC semifinal. The other one saw Auburn stave off Florida after appearing to get away w/ a foul on the potential game-tying three-pointer. Pay no mind to the respective seeding of these two teams. Tennessee might be the 3-seed in the SEC, but they're very much in play for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament were they to win today. Auburn, the #5 seed in the SEC Tournament, is a top 15 team in my eyes and an opponent no one will want to face next week. Only one can win here, obviously. I'll take the points as I'm not at all surprised Auburn got here. They've underachieved somewhat this season, but are finally starting to perform up to expectations. Looking at the stat sheet from yday, it's somewhat miraculous that Auburn beat Florida. The Gators shot 60% from the field (season-high) and finished w/ a 32-17 advantage on the boards. But the Tigers did win. They held Florida to a season-low in shot attempts (38) and also converted 19 turnovers into 20 points. Auburn had 56 shot attempts to Florida's 38 and also killed them from three-point range. They were 13 of 29 from behind the arc while the Gators were just 6 of 15. The fact Auburn attempted only five free throws (made only two!) didn't even matter. Really, it was a remarkable performance. With just under three minutes to go, Kentucky led Tennessee by eight. As someone holding a UK ticket, I was thinking cover not an outright loss. Back when the Vols were ranked #1 in the country, I was leery of them. In some ways, I still am. This game figures to have plenty of emotion w/ former Tennessee HC Bruce Pearl now coaching Auburn. Of course, this is not the first time Pearl has taken on his former school. In fact, he just beat them 84-80 (as a 2.5-pt home dog) last week. Auburn has now won seven in a row and I give them an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset yet again. 10* Auburn | |||||||
03-16-19 | Iowa State v. Kansas -1.5 | Top | 78-66 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10* Kansas (6:00 ET): Maybe they'll be having the last laugh in Lawrence after all. After having their historic 14-year streak of winning the Big 12 regular season championship snapped this year, the Jayhawks are now favored (albeit ever so slightly) to win the Big 12 Tournament Final today. The opponent is Iowa State, a team that clearly benefitied from top seed Kansas State playing without its best player yesterday. You have to wonder what would have happened had Dean Wade suited up for Kansas State Friday night. My guess is that it would have resulted in an all Sunflower State final. Iowa State turned it over 17 times and was not strong offensively for most of the second half. Granted, Kansas State is not just the best defensive team in the Big 12, but also one of the best in the entire country. But the Cyclones blew all of a double digit lead in the 2nd half and needed to hit some critical shots down the stretch to secure the four-point victory. While they've mostly looked good each of the last two days, remember the Cyclones lost five of their final six regular season games. Kansas also got a bit of a break in this tournament by getting to play 10th seeded West Virginia in the semifinal as opposed to Texas Tech (who WVU upset in the quarterfinals). The Jayhawks didn't have much problem w/ the Mountaineers last night, winning 88-74 as 9.5-point chalk as they shot 52.4% from the field and had a pair of 40+ pt halves. Iowa State was a tough opponent in the regular season, but they split the two meetings w/ each team winning at home. Not winning the Big 12 regular season title has Kansas highly motivated this week and they get the job done Saturday night. 10* Kansas | |||||||
03-16-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -1 | Top | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
8* Kentucky (3:30 ET): If either of these two schools were to win the SEC Tournament, then they'd be in line for a top seed in the Big Dance. But of more immediate importance is taking this rubber match. The home team rolled in both regular season meetings as UK won 86-69 in Lexington and Tennessee won 71-52 in Knoxville. Like a lot of people, I've had my suspicions about the Vols and I simply believe UK is the better team here. The key is a top 10 ranking in defensive efficiency. Since being humiliated in the opening game of the season by Duke (lost 118-84!), Kentucky has been beaten only four times. Three of those were by two points or less (5 pts total!), one coming in overtime (Seton Hall) and another at the buzzer (LSU). The other was to Alabama, which was avenged yday w/ a convincing 73-55 win as 12.5-pt chalk. Coach Cal cited his team's rebounding as key to the win. Now they go to avenge the only other regular season, that being what happened in Knoxville two weeks ago. The Wildcats shot miserably in that game (31.8%) and that's not going to happen again here. Tennessee has set a school record for wins this season (28) and like Kentucky most of their losses were close games. The one exception was against the 'Cats. It was a seven-point win over Mississippi State for the Vols on Friday as they shot 51.5% from the field. I wouldn't look for a repeat of that here today. A big key here is that Tennessee gives up 77.9 PPG away from Knoxville, which is a significant increase over what they're allowing in home games. Kentucky's PPG allowed away from home is more in line w/ what they allow in Lexington, thus their higher defensive rating. I like Kentucky (a lot) to move on. 8* Kentucky | |||||||
03-16-19 | Rhode Island v. St Bonaventure -1.5 | Top | 51-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
8* St. Bonaventure (1:00 ET): I played St. Bonaventure yday and came away even more impressed w/ this group than I already was going into the game. They beat George Mason 68-57 as a relatively short favorite. While that result won't exactly through "shockwaves" through College Basketball, watching the game, this team appears poised to make a run. They are very good defensively and now catch a significant break in that top seed VCU is out of the A-10 Tournament. The Bonnies will face the team that upset VCU, Rhode Island, and once again appear undervalued. Rhode Island is now on a 6-0 SU/ATS run after upsetting VCU 75-70 yday. It was the third year in a row that the Rams ousted VCU from this event. It was also a huge revenge spot for the Rhodies, who had lost 76-42 the last time they faced VCU. The coaches and players seemed particularly motivated. "They (VCU) were heckling us a lot to get us out of our game," Jeff Dowtin said. The win does come w/ a major caveat, however. VCU lost its leading scorer Marcus Evans in the second half. After he left the game is when Rhode Island made its move. Earlier, I touched on the kind of defense that St. Bonaventure has been playing. (Also discussed in yday's analysis). Yesterday marked the 9th time in the last 11 games that the Bonnies held their opposition to 60 points or less. They essentially controlled the game throughout, holding George Mason to 35% shooting overall. While yday was a revenge spot for Rhode Island, today it's St. Bonaventure's turn as they lost up in South Kingstown, 75-63, back in January. The Rams shot 54.3% from the field in that game, something that will not happen again here. That was one of just three games the Bonnies allowed 50% shooting in conference play this year and one of just seven overall. 8* St. Bonaventure | |||||||
03-15-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -9 | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* Virginia (7:00 ET): Despite getting off to a slow start yday vs. NC State, Virginia ended up winning by 20 (76-56) and comfortably covering as 11.5-pt chalk. Just imagine the result had the Hoos not been down at the half! Meanwhile, there was nothing easy or comfortable with Florida State's 65-63 win over Va Tech yday. That game went to overtime, putting them at a severe disadvantage today against the ACC's top seed. Virginia won the lone regular season meeting, by 13 points, in Charlottesville. It should be a similar result tonight in the first of two ACC semfinals. Lay the points. Virginia leads the country in scoring defense, giving up only 54.6 PPG. That defensive prowess was on full display yday (particularly in the 2nd half) as they held NC State to 38.8% shooting for the game, including 3 of 20 from three-point range. It was the Cavaliers' ninth win in a row overall. This season has seen them go 8-0 ATS when on a win streak of that length. There have been plenty of wins for a team (29-2 SU overall) that I consider the best in the country right now. I feel that because of LY's historic upset at the hands of UMBC, the Hoos are going to be severely undervalued this month. Such is the case here. Florida State shot just 34.1% from the field in the first meeting w/ Virginia and finished w/ a season-low 52 points. Virginia has a habit of doing that to its opponents. FSU got points from 10 different players yday and 33 total from its reserves. Still, it took a late three-pointer to send the game to OT where the Seminoles won on a Terrance Mann basket w/ just 1.8 seconds remaining. FSU has won 13 of its last 14 games, but the lone loss was by 18 to North Carolina. They are simply not on the same level as the other three semifinalists in the ACC. 10* Virginia | |||||||
03-15-19 | George Mason v. St Bonaventure -3 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
8* St. Bonaventure (2:30 ET): A big key in handicapping today's card is there are a great number of rested teams facing opponents that played yday. That very situation presents itself in all four games of the Atlantic 10 Tourney where the top four seeds all got byes into the quarterfinals. Count St. Bonaventure among that group and the Bonnies are laying just a small number to George Mason Friday afternoon. George Mason was fortunate enough to draw a poor George Washington team in its opening round contest, but still only won by four points. I'll be laying the short number here. GMU has actually been fortunate enough to play GW two straight times. (They also beat the Colonials 81-65, on the road, in the regular season finale!). But yday's tournament battle was a lot tighter as the Patriots' biggest lead was only eight points and that came early in the 1st half. They actually trailed by as many as five in the second half. Keep in mind they were nine-point favorites at the betting window. St. Bonaventure is a team they split with in the regular season as each team won by double digits on its home floor. While George Mason won the 1st meeting by 15, St. Bonaventure was more dominant w/ a 23-pt win in the rematch. Other than GW, the only other team George Mason has defeated over the last month was Richmond, who also finished near the bottom of the A-10 regular season standings. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure is hot, having won seven of its last eight games. The favorite has covered the spread in each of the last nine meetings between these schools and that's mainly been the Bonnies, who are 6-1 ATS the last seven matchups. Big edge to the Bonnies on defense as they rank 57th in the country in defensive efficiency while GMU is 151st. The Patriots also are allowing opponents to shoot a blistering 54.4% from two-point range, which is last in the A-10. Furthermore, GMU is now 0-6 ATS following its last six SU wins. 8* St. Bonaventure | |||||||
03-15-19 | Memphis v. UCF -2 | Top | 79-55 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
8* UCF (2:00 ET): The American Conference's Tournament is being played in Memphis, which obviously gives the host team some advantage. But it won't enough today for the Tigers to overcome a very underrated UCF team. While Memphis had to play yday, UCF got a bye into the quarterfinals. That, to me, is just as important as the homecourt advantage here for Memphis (if not more so). Now UCF did not fare well in their previous venture here, losing by 20 points. But that and a loss in the regular season finale (at Temple) will have them fully motivated this afternoon. Lay the short number. Memphis really didn't need any kind of additional advantage for its 1st round matchup w/ Tulane. The Green Wave were the worst team in the American this year and quite possibly one of the worst teams in the entire country this year, excluding the smaller conferences. Tulane finished the season 0-19 SU vs. the rest of the American and 4-28 SU overall. So don't go putting much stock in the Tigers' 83-68 win yday. They totaled a season-high 52 pts in the 1st half, a number they won't come close to matching today. It was the second time they beat Tulane in the last month (both at home, no less), so the fact the Tigers have also won five of six is also slightly misleading. UCF has had nearly a full week to "stew" over losing to Temple in the regular season finale. While that was called an "upset," Temple actually did go off as a 2.5-pt betting favorite. The loss dropped UCF out of the Top 25 and also halted an eight-game ATS win streak. Their only SU loss in those eight games was by five at Cincinnati. They later avenged that defeat and also won at Houston on 3/2, which was one of just two conference losses suffered by the Cougars all season. These teams like to play at VERY different tempos and I think it's going to be a problem for unrested Memphis here today. 8* UCF | |||||||
03-14-19 | Long Beach State v. Hawaii -1.5 | Top | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (11:30 ET): The Big West is one of the few leagues that does NOT provide any advantage to the top finishers from the regular season. The conference tournament is a straight ahead format w/ the top eight teams playing four quarterfinal matchups. Now the bottom two teams from the reg season don't even get a chance to play in the tournament, but considering how bad UC Riverside and Cal Poly both were, that's of little consequence. The final quarterfinal of Thursday pits 4-seed Hawaii against 5-seed Long Beach State. The Warriors will be looking to make it a 3-0 season sweep of the 49ers after beating them twice in a week two months ago. Long Beach State will arrive in Anaheim on a five-game win streak. But three of those wins were by five points or less and the other two were against the two teams that didn't qualify for this tournament. Before that stretch, LBSU had lost eight of nine w/ the only win coming in OT against Cal Poly (worst team in the Big West). At one point in the season, the 49ers were eight games below .500. Even w/ the strong finish, they are only 14-18 SU overall. Half of their eight league wins came against those bottom two teams. This is a team that gives up 79.5 PPG away from home. Hawaii actually won a pair of games here on the mainland to end its regular season. They held Cal State Fullerton to 59 points in the regular season finale. Offensively, the Warriors turned in two of their better efforts of the year against LBSU. They tied a school record w/ 14 made three-pointers (on 27 attempts) in the second matchup, which was on the road. Note that Hawaii was one of only three teams in the entire Big West to finish the regular season w/ a winning SU record. They should easily move onto the semifinals to face one of the other two, top seeded UC Irvine (who is the clear class of the league). 8* Hawaii | |||||||
03-14-19 | East Carolina +11 v. Wichita State | Top | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
10* East Carolina (10:00 ET): This line would seem to be inflated even though Wichita State just drubbed East Carolina nine days ago. The Shockers won 72-55, as 14.5-point favorites, but of course that came was played in the friendly confines of Koch Arena. It was the second time beating the Pirates this year as back in February it was a 16-point win in Greenville. Wichita State certainly got hot down the stretch, winning 9 out of its last 11 games. Meanwhile, ECU has won just twice in its last 16 games and both wins were against horrendous Tulane. Despite those respective trajectories, I maintain the line is inflated and I'll take the points. When a team comes into its conference tournament red-hot, I think there needs to be a little trepidation when they start laying big numbers. Wichita State has a track record, but this edition is not the strongest. They really did beat up on the bottom of the American, a designation which clearly applies to East Carolina, but I'm not sure we should go trusting a team that was three games below .500 on January 26th and only 2-6 SU in conference play. Of the last nine wins, two were against ECU, two were against Tulane, two were against Tulsa, two were against SMU and the other vs. UConn. That's the bottom five teams in the American. Three were by three points or less, including the regular season finale vs. Tulane, who did not win a single conference game this season. East Carolina was clearly the American's second worst team this year w/ the only non-Tulane win being a shocker over Cincinnati. But down the stretch, they did have a few tough losses, including two in overtime. Over the last three seasons, they are 16-4 ATS following B2B games where they had five or less steals. Is anyone going to confuse the Pirates for a "good" team? No. But they deserve more credit than they are getting Thursday. Too many points for a team that shoots just 38.7% away from home (Wichita State) to lay. 10* East Carolina | |||||||
03-14-19 | Connecticut v. South Florida +1.5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
8* South Florida (1:00 ET): The American's conference tournament gets going Thursday w/ four 1st round matchups. The winner here moves on to face top seed Houston, so the odds are long for either UConn or USF going very far in this event. Neither is exactly displaying "peak form" lately either. UConn no longer resembles the program once known for coming up huge in March. The Huskies have just two wins in their last nine games. One of them was against USF, who is just 1-6 its last seven games. Something will have to give here and surprisingly, I side w/ the Bulls in this one. There were two regular season matchups between UConn and USF and they split the pair, each winning at home. UConn was clearly overvalued as a 3.5-pt road favorite back in January, losing 76-68. They did gain a measure of revenge just 11 days ago in Storrs, but won by only two points (70-68) and thus missed out on covering (were -3!). That second meeting was an ugly shooting day for both teams. Ironically, on the day they retired Ray Allen's number, UConn didn't make a single three-pointer (0 for 15). They shot just 38.5% for the game. Fortunately for the Huskies, USF was even worse overall (32.8%) even though they made three 3-pointers (3 of 18). Here in Memphis, the teams should shoot better. But how much good shooting did UConn "use up" in their regular season finale against East Carolina. They shot 62.5% from the field in the 82-73 win as 6.5-pt road favorites. The Huskies definitely won't be shooting that well again today. South Florida is the superior defensive side in this one, giving up just 67.0 PPG, which is a respectable number. Certainly a lot better than UConn, who gives up 77.9 PPG away from Storrs. UConn also won just two games away from home all season. That is shockingly bad. 8* South Florida | |||||||
03-13-19 | Washington State v. Oregon -10.5 | Top | 51-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
10* Oregon (11:30 ET): The Pac 12 was rightly maligned this season and may only end up sending one team to the Big Dance depending on how this tournament plays out. Regular season champ Washington figures to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but if they also emerge victorious this weekend in Las Vegas, then the rest of the league could very well be shutout. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there were two teams in the Pac 12 that turned in absolutely horrific regular seasons. Those were Washington State and Cal. I'll fade the former here as they've got no chance here. Oregon is a team that came into 2018-19 w/ high hopes, but those mostly went "out the window" when Bol Bol went down w/ a season-ending injury. Still, the Ducks have persevered and actually finished the regular season on a 4-0 SU/ATS run. One of those wins came against Washington State, by 11, as 6.5-pt road favorites. You'll note the spread is several points higher today (neutral setting) but the Ducks also beat the Cougars by 20 as 13-point favorites in Eugene earlier in the year. They also just knocked off Washington in the regular season finale. In three of the last four games, Oregon has not given up more than 51 points. Ironically, Wazzu was the one team to top 51 against the Ducks. But they may not do so here. The Cougars come into this game on a five-game losing streak, having failed to cover all five times as well. Defensively, they are very bad, giving up almost 80 PPG. (Oregon gives up only 63.7 PPG on the year). Having already taken two DD losses to the Ducks in the regular season, I don't see why the tournament will be any different for Wazzu. Oregon is 25-12 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off a conference win. 10* Oregon | |||||||
03-13-19 | Rice v. Marshall -6.5 | Top | 65-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Marshall (10:00 ET): Marshall is a team I've jumped on a couple of times recently and both times they easily covered. In some ways the Thundering Herd benefited from C-USA's wacky "pod" system of scheduling at the end of the regular season. After every team played 14 games, the teams were grouped 1-5, 6-10 and 11-14. You then only played the teams in your own pod. Marshall swept their pod, going 4-0 SU and ATS. Thus, they actually finished tied w/ the second best record (11-7 SU) in league play. Yet because of said "pod" system, they're still seeded 6th. So that is to their detriment as they won't even get a 1st round bye in the C-USA Tournament. But expect the Herd to make some noise in this event. Sure, I made the point that this is a much better team at home (where they won't be playing anymore). But they're hot. Also remember that this was a NCAA Tournament team a year ago (won 25 games!) and returned four starters. It was absolutely a disappointing start to the season, but they have the horses to finish strong. Their 1st opponent in the C-USA Tournament is Rice, who has been playing all of its recent games against the lowest tier of teams in the league. Facing Marshall will be a big step up in class for the Owls. Because Rice was in the 11-14 pod, they actually played the same team back to back in their last two regular season games. It was Charlotte, who didn't even qualify for the tournament. The Owls really had nothing to play for in their last game (though it was Senior Day) and they lost to the 49ers 78-70 as 5.5-pt favorites. Two of Rice's recent wins came against the two teams that did not make this tournament: Charlotte and UTEP. They did beat Marshall earlier in the year, 74-69, but that was at home. So revenge comes into play here and I don't think the Thundering Herd will take it easy on the Owls. 8* Marshall | |||||||
03-13-19 | Arizona v. USC +1 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
8* USC (3:00 ET): What a tumultuous season in Tucson as the Arizona program has been clouded by the specter of this NCAA investigation. It would almost be appropriate then for the Wildcats to bow out in the first round of the Pac 12 Tourney. They did have a three-game win streak in late February, but those are the only wins for the team going all the way back to late January. Overall, the Wildcats come into the postseason tourney having dropped 9 of their last 12 games, both SU and ATS. USC hasn't been much better, but the Trojans did Arizona 80-57 in the regular season. USC has lost and failed to cover four in a row. But they had a tough schedule at the end of the reg season, having to play the final three games on the road. You may recall that I faded them last Saturday in Colorado. It was actually my *10* Game of the Week. But the thinking there was CU was a terrible matchup for the Trojans, both in terms of rebounding and getting the game in Boulder. That wound up being true. Today's game is not in hostile territory and Arizona happens to be one of the two teams in the Pac 12 averaging fewer rebounds per game than the Trojans. In the 80-57 blowout of the Wildcats in the regular season, USC completely dominated every facet including the boards. They held Arizona to 27.8% shooting, including 5 of 25 from three-point range. It was arguably their best game all season, certainly in conference play. An argument can be made that USC deserved a better regular season record as they were 0-3 in overtime games. The Trojans should defend better here (compared to recent efforts) and they are the better three-point shooting team. 8* USC | |||||||
03-12-19 | North Dakota State v. Nebraska-Omaha -2.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
8* Omaha (9:00 ET): This is the Summit League Finals. The top seed in this tournament (South Dakota State) was stunned in the Opening Round, losing to a bad Western Illinois team. That result has certainly "opened the door" for #2 seed Omaha to advance to its first ever NCAA Tournament (program was not D-I until 2011-12 season). The Mavericks have played two close games so far here in Sioux Falls as have their opponents, North Dakota State. Carson Wentz's alma mater was a more direct beneficiary of South Dakota State getting knocked out early as the Bison got to play Western Illinois in the semifinals yday. But they won only 76-73. The Bison's leading scorer Tyson Ward made just 1 of 6 field goal attempts yday, but he and the rest of the team got bailed out by a season-best 20 pt effort from Sam Griesel. NDSU did lead by as many as 15 early in the 1st Half, but could not shake the Leathernecks and actually trailed briefly w/ less than 10 minutes remaining. I can't stress enough how bad Western Illinois was during the regular season. This is a big step up in class for the Bison tonight and they've already lost twice to Omaha during the regular season. Those games were decided by a total of 21 points. Those two regular season meetings played out very differently w/ Omaha winning 90-77 at home and 58-50 on the road. The Mavericks come in off a 1-pt victory over IUPFW last night where they were held to a season-low 24 pts in the second half. But they didn't allow a single basket over the game's final four minutes either. A quick look at the regular season standings confirms that South Dakota State and Omaha were the clear class of the Summit League this year. Again, it's a major break for the Mavericks not to have to deal w/ the top seed here (who would be playing on its home court). I look for them to move on. 8* Omaha | |||||||
03-12-19 | Appalachian State v. Louisiana-Monroe UNDER 155 | Top | 80-89 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Appalachian State/LA Monroe (8:00 ET): The Sun Belt Tournament gets underway Tuesday w/ a pair of 1st round matchups. LA Monroe is forced to play this "extra" game due to losing a head to head tiebreak w/ Coastal Carolina. I don't envision Appalachian State providing much resistance, however, laying this many points w/ the Warhawks doesn't sound like a particularly good idea either. What I do like here is the total. It was set way too high considering both teams have been going Under far more than they have been going Over of late. App State is 5-1 Under its last six games while ULM is 5-2 Under in its last seven. Take the Under here. The rest of the SBC Tournament will take place down in New Orleans, but these 1st round games are at campus sites. That's a big edge to LA Monroe tonight (as well as for South Alabama playing Arkansas State). The Warhawks went 12-2 SU at home during the regular season and did average an impressive 84.6 PPG. They shot very well vs. App State in both regular season meetings (above 51% both games) and averaged 82.5 PPG. But this is the postseason now and I don't think we'll be seeing that level of scoring. Note that La Monroe just turned in one of its better defensive efforts, holding Little Rock to 62 pts in the regular season finale. App State shot 56.5% from the field in the first game vs. La Monroe. But that was at home and a season-best FG%, at least for conference play. The Mountaineers were held to 43.5% in the rematch, which took place on 2.28. Thus, that second meeting was lower scoring and stayed Under. Things would have been even worse offensively for ASU in that game had it not been for a career-high 47 pts from Ronshad Shabazz. Simply put, I'm NOT expecting the Mountaineers to score much here. They shot just 39.0% in the reg season finale vs. South Alabama. La Monroe shot just 41.1% in its last game and only got to 79 pts because of a big night at the free throw line. 10* Under Appalachian State/LA Monroe | |||||||
03-11-19 | San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
8* San Diego (11:30 ET): It's become almost automatic for Gonzaga and St. Mary's to meet in the WCC Tournament Final every year. In fact, we've gotten that exact Finals pairing 7 out of the last 10 years (but not last year). The three times we didn't see the pairing, BYU made it in place of St. Marys. (Gonzaga has made the Final every year since 1997!) As per usual, Gonzaga and St. Mary's have received the double byes into tonight's semifinal round by virtue of finishing 1-2 in the regular season. But there's an upset-minded team looking to spoil the party this year and it's San Diego, who has gotten on a real late-season "roll." This year's WCC Tournament has already featured plenty of upsets as neither Gonzaga nor St. Mary's will be facing "who they thought they would." San Diego is the 7-seed and just stunned BYU 80-57 on Saturday to get here. It was the Toreros' third straight excellent defensive performance in this tournament. They'd previously held Portland to 47 points on 33.3% shooting and Santa Clara to 45 points on 27.8% shooting. Now those were games they were favored to win. But they were 3.5-point dogs against BYU and limited them to 31% shooting from the field. I'm counting on that USD defense coming up big again tonight. St. Mary's has been off since 3/2 when they lost the regular season finale, at home, to Gonzaga. They were held to just 55 points in that contest, which is bad news considering the team's 18-32 ATS record the L3 seasons coming off an Under. The Gaels are not as strong this year as they have been in past years. Now don't tell that to San Diego, who will be playing w/ double revenge here for a pair of double digit losses in the regular season. The Toreros shot the ball horribly (29.4%) the last meeting, which I don't expect to be the case here. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go. 8* San Diego | |||||||
03-11-19 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -2 | Top | 61-43 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): The MAC Tournament gets underway Monday. These 1st round matchups are being played at campus sites, quite an edge for the home teams, who will have to win four times this week to make the Big Dance (next three rounds all played in Cleveland). Here we have the #6 vs. #11 seed matchup w/ Eastern Michigan hosting Ball State. The latter did not end its regular season well (at all) as it dropped five of six, the lone win coming by just a single bucket. Overall, Ball State is 2-11 ATS its last 13 games w/ seven straight non-covers. So laying just a small number w/ EMU seems to be a good idea here, especially considering they swept the regular season series. It was a two-point win in Muncie back in January, then a seven-point win here in Ypsilanti just a week ago. Last week's game saw the Eagles largely in control from start to finish. They led by 12 at halftime and held the Cardinals to 38.5% shooting for the game. For the season, Eastern Michigan went 11-6 SU here at home while holding foes to 66.2 PPG on just 40.2% shooting. Ball State has averaged just 61.4 points over its last five games. The Cardinals' regular season ended w/ a 64-57 loss at home to Northern Illinois (were 5-pt favorites). They are 9-26 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off a game that went Under the total. Eastern Michigan also lost its reg season finale, but covered the spread at Toledo in a six-point defeat. They are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS off their previous three losses and I trust the Eagles' defense to get the job done here. Ball State is basically a wounded animal at this point, waiting to be put out of its misery. 10* Eastern Michigan | |||||||
03-11-19 | NC-Greensboro v. Wofford -6.5 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
8* Wofford (7:00 ET): This is the Southern Conference Final and top-seeded Wofford is in the rare position of being a "smaller" mid-major that does NOT have to win its conference tournament. The Terriers are ranked 22nd in the country coming into Monday and will likely be even higher once the new poll comes out later today. I say that because they're now on a 19-game win streak (school record) after rather easily dispatching of East Tennessee State in the semifinals yesterday. But despite their "assured" NCAA Tournament status, I'm still laying the points here w/ Wofford as they have something to prove. Because they "need" to win tonight, I'm figuring UNC Greensboro might be a pretty popular underdog tonight. But the Spartans have expended a lot of energy the last two days in coming from behind to defeat both Samford and Furman. Sunday, they ended the game on a 21-10 run to win 66-62. Saturday, they were down 12 to 7-seed Samford at the half and down six w/ six minutes to go. Privately, I think Wofford has to be ecstatic to draw UNC Greensboro in this spot, rather than Furman, who I had rated as the stronger potential opponent. UNC Greensboro has pulled off a number of come from behind efforts to get to 28-5 SU on the year. But they got drilled both times they faced Wofford, losing by 29 and 30 points. With this game being on national TV, I don't think Wofford is going to be prone to any sort of letdown. Rather, I look for them to make their presence felt on a national level as they look to go into the NCAA Tournament w/ a fairly decent seed (a 6 or 7?). The Terriers are 20-0 SU vs. the rest of the SoCon, winning by an average margin of 17 PPG. They have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games, only failing when the were asked to lay 23.5 against VMI. 8* Wofford | |||||||
03-10-19 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State OVER 123 | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10* Over Wisconsin/Ohio State (4:30 ET): Wisconsin needs a win today to lock up the #4 seed in the Big 10 Tournament while Ohio State is just trying to get off the NCAA Tournament bubble. A loss today in the home finale would drop the Buckeyes to 8-12 SU in the Big 10, not a death knell, but they are on pretty shaky ground and trending downward w/o their leading scorer/rebounder Kaleb Wesson. Despite OSU playing without Wesson and Wisconsin being incredibly stingy at the defensive end, I expect this game to go Over the total, which is too low. The teams have not met previously this season. In the two games so far w/o Wesson, Ohio State has scored only 51 and 50 points in losses to Purdue and Northwestern. But both of those games were also played on the road. Here in Columbus, the Buckeyes are averaging a far more impressive 75.8 PPG. Even with Wesson playing in most of the games, they average only 59.8 points in "true" road games. The Under is 9-3 in those true roadies, but the Over is 12-6 in all other OSU games this season. The Buckeyes played a horrible game at N'western on Wednesday, missing the first 13 shots they took and finishing the game just 26.6% from the floor, including 4 of 26 on three-pointers. They can't possibly shoot any worse today. Wisconsin just allowed its season-low in its last game (45 points) vs. Iowa, but that was also the third time the Badgers held an opponent below 50 pts this season. They are top five in the country in defensive efficiency. But despite all that, I'm still looking for an Over here as Wisconsin did give up 75 points in its last road game plus they should find their way offensively against a struggling Ohio State squad. The Over has cashed each of the last four times these teams have played and is 7-3 in the Buckeyes' last 10 home games. The Over is also 4-0 in Wisconsin's last four games vs. teams with an overall winning record. Look for this one to sneak Over. 10* Over Wisconsin/Ohio State | |||||||
03-09-19 | North Dakota v. Nebraska-Omaha -5.5 | Top | 76-81 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
8* Neb-Omaha (9:30 ET): This is a quarterfinal in the Summit League Tournament, which gets going today in Sioux Falls, SD. Second seeded Omaha is one of two teams that really dominated this league during the regular season (top seed South Dakota St being the other). There's quite a gap between those two teams and the rest of the field, so I thought it would be an opportune time to take advantage of that fact w/ the pointspread being widely available (not always the case in the Summit League). Omaha should easily roll onto the semifinals. Lay the points. The Mavericks went 13-3 SU in conference play during the regular season. They split w/ South Dakota St (who finished 14-2 SU), but unfortunately were swept by Oral Roberts, losing both times by four points or less. But overall, this is a team that has won 16 out of its last 19 games, including 12 of 14. They concluded the regular season w/ an easy win over last place Denver (who didn't even qualify for the tournament), 86-76 as a four-point favorite. That was the Mavericks' 3rd straight road game. Omaha's quarterfinal opponent is a North Dakota team they beat twice during the regular season, scoring 90+ pts in both games. The road win was a lot closer (92-91) as the Mavericks breezed to a 90-72 win at home. The Fighting Hawks did have a three-game win streak snapped in their reg season finale as they lost by 15 at South Dakota. But note before that three-game win streak, the Fighting Hawks were just 3-9 SU in league play. They were a perfect 4-0 against Western Illinois and Denver, the two worst teams in the league, and just 2-10 SU vs. everyone else. The last time these teams played, Omaha shot a blistering 56.5% from the field. 8* Neb-Omaha | |||||||
03-09-19 | USC v. Colorado -6.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
10* Colorado (5:00 ET): This would appear to be the proverbial "two ships sailing in opposite directions" type deal. USC has lost three in a row and six of eight (also 2-6 ATS). Colorado has won and covered seven of its last nine games, including B2B blowouts here in Boulder. The Buffaloes still have a chance to finish in the top four in the Pac 12, if Oregon State were to lose at Washington State or if Utah lost at home to UCLA. That would mean a first round bye in next week's conference tournament. They have beaten USC 8 of the last 12 meetings, including 69-65 (as 4.5-pt dogs) back on Feb 5 in LA. At home, the Buffs should roll today. USC has been pretty horrific on the defensive end of late. They've given up a combined 176 pts the L2 games, including 22 made three-pointers. Consider that the Trojans shot better than 55% from the field Thursday and still lost by nine to Utah. This is their second three-game losing streak in Pac 12 play this season. Unlike the first time, they don't have the luxury of facing Cal the next time out. They are 1-8 ATS their last nine road games against teams with winning home records. They give up 82.8 PPG on the road this year and Colorado has gone 12-3 SU here in Boulder this season. A big edge for CU in this matchup comes on the glass. They are the top team in the Pac 12 in rebounding differential (+5.5 per game) while USC ranks 10th (-1.7). USC was really dominated on the glass by Utah on Thursday. No Pac 12 team likes the "2nd road game in three days" scenario, but Boulder is a particularly tough place to play (altitude). Colorado crushed UCLA at home Thursday night, 93-68, as six-point chalk. For a second straight game, they held their opponents below 40% shooting. It would appear as if the Buffs have all the key advantages heading into this one and I'm expecting a rout. 10* Colorado | |||||||
03-09-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall -6 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Marshall (12:00 ET): I jumped all over the Thundering Herd earlier in the week and they rewarded us w/ an easy 94-78 win and cover over FIU. I had said that this was a completely different team at home and sure enough, they responded in kind. For the season, they are now 11-3 SU in Huntington and averaging an impresive 87.9 PPG. I also went over how the "pod" format being used by Conference USA may end up hurting the Herd, but the bottom line is I expect them to continue a strong finish to the regular season here in the finale vs. Florida Atlantic. Lay the points. For awhile there, Marshall was having a real rough go of it, especially at the betting window. There was a stretch where they'd lost seven of eight game and things got even worse ATS w/ a 10-game slide. That's what landed them in the "pod" w/ the middle of the pack C-USA teams, rather than competing for a top five seed w/ the big boys. I went over this unique "pod" format in the last writeup. But just to rehash, after every C-USA team played 14 games, they were broken up into three groups. If you were a top five team after the 14-game mark, you were assured no worse than a top five seed for the conference tourney, but would only play fellow top five teams for the remainder of the regular season. The same thing holds true for the teams that were 6 through 10 in the standings as well as 11 through 14. The bottom line is that Marshall has taken advantage of their "pod" and finishing strong. They've now won four straight, scoring 85 or more pts in every game. Despite likely entering the C-USA Tournament as the probable 6-seed, there's a chance they could end the season actually tied for 2nd place in the standings, which is kinda unlucky. They've already beaten FAU once this season, 96-84 here in Huntington. They were 11-pt favorites for that game. Curiously, they are laying a lot less for the rematch. As stated in the previous writeup, Marshall has underachieved this season as they returned four starters from LY's 25-win team. FAU just took a brutal three-point home loss to La Tech on Wednesday following a six-day layoff. That makes this a pretty rough spot facing an opponent that's started to rediscover itself. 10* Marshall | |||||||
03-08-19 | Harvard v. Cornell +6 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
8* Cornell (7:00 ET): Cornell has lost five in a row, the last four all coming out on the road and those four road losses got progressively worse (in terms of margin) as the trip wore on. It was a nine-point loss to Princeton, 18 pt loss to Penn, 23 pt loss to Yale and 24 pt loss to Brown. Fortunately, the Big Red get the final two games of the regular season at home. The first is against a Harvard team they already beat once, 67-61 as 9.5-point road dogs. Going by that line and result, it would certainly appear as if we're getting some solid value on the home dog for tonight's rematch. Take the points. Harvard is tied w/ Yale for the conference lead and swept the regular season series, so they have the tiebreaker. That means all the Crimson need to do is win their final two games and they are Ivy League regular season champs. But these last two games are both on the road where they are just 6-7 SU this season and have been outscored. The Crimson have won three straight, but all three wins were by single digits and the last two came at home. They shot 51.2% in the 1st meeting w/ Cornell and still lost. I don't imagine they'll shoot that well again. Cornell actually pulled off a stunning rally in upsetting Harvard the first time around, coming back from a 13-point halftime deficit to take the game outright. They scored 46 pts in the second half after scoring only 21 in the 1st. They did have almost a 2:1 edge in FT attempts, but that could very well be the case again tonight as they are playing at home. Something to keep in mind about Cornell is that they have played 17 of their 28 games on the road. They're a solid 7-4 SU at home and tonight will be just the fourth time they've gotten points in their own gym. 8* Cornell | |||||||
03-08-19 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -14 | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (6:00 ET): Though 19th ranked Buffalo has already clinched the MAC regular season title, expect no shortage of motivation from them Friday night. First off, it's Senior Night. Secondly, they'll be looking to avenge one of the two losses they suffered in conference play this year. This is the first time all season UB finds itself in a revenge spot. There was no rematch with the other MAC team they lost to (Northern Illinois). So Bowling Green should be forewarned that this final game of the regular season could get pretty ugly for them. Lay the points. It was back on February 1st that Buffalo lost at BG, 92-88 as an eight-point road favorite. The loss to Northern Illinois was by just a single point, so this team is seven points away from being on the verge of completing a perfect MAC season. The Bulls' 27-3 (SU) record puts them as one of six teams in the country w/ an overall win % of .900 or better. They are perfect here at home (14-0), outscoring opponents by 23.2 PPG. They have outscored conference opponents by 14.2 PPG, whether it's home or the road. The first meeting w/ BG saw them blow an eight-point halftime lead. They haven't forgotten. Bowling Green has sputtered some down the stretch, losing three of its last four. Their last game was easily the worst performance of the season as they were drubbed by Akron, 91-67 (as 2.5-pt dogs). Giving up that many points to an offensively challenged team like Akron is not a good sign for tonight. The Zips shot nearly 58% from the floor and were 14 of 31 from three-point range despite coming in as the MAC's worst 3-pt shooting team. I realize that Buffalo is 0-3 ATS its last three games, but two were on the road. The Bulls were 15 of 34 from behind the arc in their last game. This is an experienced group, so Senior Night is a big deal, and a win here would set a new school record for a single season. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
03-07-19 | Evansville v. Illinois State -4 | Top | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
8* Illinois State (9:35 ET): The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament gets going Thursday and as always the event takes place in St. Louis. Tonight, the bottom four teams must play just to get into the quarterfinals. I like Illinois State's chances against last place Evansville. While the regular season didn't end particularly well for the Redbirds, they did sweep both meetings from Evansville. They won comfortably both times as well. So I don't think doing so a third time will be much trouble here. Evansville has posted only two SU wins since January 16th! Lay the points. One of those two Evansville victories came in the reg season finale, an upset of Valparaiso (on the road) as five-point underdogs. Ironically, the only two games that the Purple Aces won over the last two months both came at Valpo's expense. They'd lost seven in a row between the victories and are just 2-11 SU the L13 games overall. Last weekend's win was all the more surprising because Evansville had just one "true" road win prior to it. Following a SU win, the Purple Aces are just 2-8 SU, 3-6 ATS this season. I just don't see them winning B2B games at this juncture. Illinois State held Evansville to 38.2 and 32.7 percent shooting in its two regular season victories. The Redbirds have lost six of eight themselves and got somewhat of a "raw deal" having to play this extra tournament game as they finished tied w/ Northern Iowa for 6th, but lost the tiebreaker. Outside of Normal, ISU hasn't exactly been "gangbusters," but they did win at Evansville. They lost the regular season finale at Southern Illinois despite four players finishing in double digits. Interesting here to note is that Illinois State is 17-5 SU all-time in the MVC Tournament when playing an opponent they swept in the regular season. That includes 10 straight wins, four of them coming against Evansville. The Purple Aces are also short-handed w/ Dainius Chatkevicius still suspended. 8* Illinois State | |||||||
03-07-19 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -6.5 | Top | 70-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
10* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): We're into the final week of the Sun Belt's regular season slate and both teams here figure to finish in the middle of the league's pack. Coastal Carolina's SBC record is 8-8 SU as they just pulled off a nice upset over the weekend, going on the road and beating La Monroe 97-91 as 5.5-point pups. South Alabama perhaps pulled off a bigger shocker, beating 1st place Texas State 77-63 as 3-pt dogs, albeit at home. This is a revenge spot for CC after losing by seven down in Mobile back in January. I think they get the job done in Thursday's rematch. Lay the points. Coastal Carolina had dropped five of six before beating La Monroe Saturday. Devante Jones scored a season-high 30 pts for the Chanticleers in the upset and Zac Cuthbertson added 25. The win snapped a four-game losing streak on the road. But here at home Coastal Carolina is 8-3 SU and outscores opponents by a healthy 12.2 PPG. Their final two regular season games are both here in Conway. Note that if the Chanticleers were to sweep this week, then there is a chance they could finish fifth in the Sun Belt. They've covered four of their last five at home and are 14-5-1 ATS the L20 times off a SU win. South Alabama really lucked out Saturday when Texas State's leading scorer Nijal Pearson (18 PPG) failed to make a single shot from the field (0 for 8). The Jaguars were able to pull away in the second half, but I certainly wouldn't look for them to shoot 62.8% from the floor again nor 10 of 17 from three-point range. They really killed Texas State from three-point range as the Bobcats were just 5 of 25. Note USA is just 2-9 SU on the road this season and sees their scoring average dip down to 68.2 PPG. The win over Texas State represents their best offensive game (in terms of shooting %) this entire season. 10* Coastal Carolina | |||||||
03-06-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -6 | Top | 78-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
10* Marshall (7:00 ET): Conference USA adopted a strange format for determining its seedings for the upcoming tournament in Frisco, TX. Rather than play a traditional schedule, teams were grouped into three "pods" after everyone played 14 league games. If you were a top five team after the 14-game mark, you were assured no worse than a top five seed for the conference tourney, but would only play fellow top five teams for the remainder of the regular season. The same thing holds true for the teams that were 6 through 10 in the standings after that 14-game mark. Both FIU and Marshall are in that "pod," meaning upward mobility is limited to the sixth seed, no matter how well either team plays down the stretch. Strange times, indeed. Sure enough, both of these teams have picked up their level of play since the "pod" format started. FIU has won four straight while Marshall is on a three-game win streak. Thus, both are now actually tied for 4th place in C-USA w/ 9-7 SU records, even though (again) neither can be seeded higher than 6th. Confused yet? Well, let's get to what you NEED to know here. Marshall already beat FIU once this year, 105-97 (no overtime!) and for a second time will get to host them here in Huntington. That's a big edge considering the Thundering Herd are 10-3 SU at home this season and averaging 87.5 PPG. FIU is just 5-7 SU in "true" road games this year, giving up 85.7 PPG. This "pod" format created some unique scheduling spots and for Marshall, they actually had a 12-day break. They responded by upsetting both La Tech and North Texas on the road as 7 and 5.5-point dogs respectively. This was a 25-win team LY that brought back four starters. So it's been a bit of a disappointing year, particularly at the betting window where before the B2B upsets, they'd failed to cover 10 in a row. But the Herd seems back on track now and I like them laying a shorter number than what they laid in the first matchup w/ FIU. Unlike the previous two times they've taken the floor, FIU hasn't had at least a week off between games. 10* Marshall | |||||||
03-05-19 | Illinois-Chicago v. Green Bay -3.5 | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:00 ET): This will be the third time in three weeks that I'm siding w/ the Phoenix. The first two have gone quite well as I had them in wins over Detroit and Wright State. The latter was an upset as a 4-point dog just last week. Both games were here at home as is this one, which is the opener of the Horizon League Tournament. They draw a UIC team they beat twice during the regular season, both times by five points or less, but I expect the rubber match to be the easiest win of them all as Green Bay seems to be "peaking" at the right time. Lay the points. As I talked about each of those last two times I played Green Bay, they are a much better team here at home. They've gone 11-3 SU here, averaging 87.1 PPG. Equally as important as those offensive numbers though is how the defense improves. While the Phoenix give up 85.6 PPG on the road, a pretty frightening number, they are only allowing 75.0 at home. The fact they are outscoring opponents by double digits here at home for the season makes getting home court advantage for this 1st round Horizon League matchup so critical. The last time these teams played, Green Bay staged a dramatic rally, coming back from a 19-point halftime deficit. That was on the road, just 10 days ago. That game saw the Phoenix held to a season-low 20 points in the 1st half, which won't happen here. They won the season's first meeting 90-85 here at home. UIC is not a good road team, so them being the lower seed definitely hurts. They are 4-11 SU/ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by more than seven points per game. I know they were dominating (for the 1st half) the last time they played Green Bay, but that was at home. This spread is way too low. 10* Green Bay | |||||||
03-04-19 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 132.5 | Top | 64-52 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
8* Over Kansas State/TCU (9:00 ET): Few would have expected Kansas State to be in the position that they're currently in after they got off to an 0-2 start in Big 12 play. But, buoyed by one of the nation's top defensive efficiency ratings, the Wildcats have won 12 of their last 14 conference games and enter the final week of the regular season w/ a chance to win the outright conference title. If they win the next two games, they'll do no worse than share the honor w/ Texas Tech. But to do that, they'll certainly have to play better than they did last week when they went 0-2 ATS vs. Kansas and Baylor. TCU is a team that had high hopes coming into 2018-19. But I didn't really view them as a Top 25 squad and they were a fade for me in the early part of the season. Tonight is the Horned Frogs' final home game and they've lost five of their last six. They too have not had a great last seven days. After losing 104-96 to West Virginia (triple overtime game), they had little left in the tank for a very good Texas Tech team, who beat them 81-64. The Horned Frogs allowed nearly 57% shooting in that loss, which took place right here in Ft. Worth. More often that not, Kansas State holds its opponents under its season scoring average. They certainly did that to TCU in the first meeting, winning 65-55 in Manhattan. The Horned Frogs average over 75 PPG for the season and the Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games. Kansas State, as good as they are defensively, is 6-3 Over its last nine games. Two of the three Unders came last week. It was a dismal offensive showing at home vs. Kansas and then a slow start in a win (but non-cover) over Baylor. Even though this game is on the road, I expect better offense here from the Wildcats. Dean Wade is back and looking healthy. He scored 20 points vs. Baylor. The Under is 4-0 in the L4 meetings w/ TCU, but I anticipate a much more high scoring game than the last one here tonight. 8* Over Kansas State/TCU |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |