Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-12-20 | Arkansas State v. Kansas State -10 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -115 | 41 h 44 m | Show |
8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): So Arkansas State already has a game under its belt and it was a 37-24 loss at Memphis. Though the Red Wolves left with the cash (as 18.5-point dogs), they were probably left kicking themselves for not playing a tighter game. Three turnovers were the undoing, although the defense giving up 500+ total yards was going to make it hard to pull the outright upset. Kansas State might not be Memphis, but they are a P5 team that’s had extra time to prepare and offer a widely different look than Memphis. Kansas State was a solid team for Chris Klieman last season. Klieman was in a tough spot replacing a legend in Bill Snyder, but his first season in Manhattan produced eight wins including an upset of Oklahoma. While the Wildcats must replace four O-lineman in 2020, the defense and special teams are solid and QB Skylar Thompson is back for his senior season. Thompson accounted for 23 TDs last season, 11 of which came on the ground. This game should allow for him to “pad” his passing numbers as last week, Memphis’ QB Brady White completed 72% of his passes. This is a tough spot for ASU, who is going on the road for a second week in a row to face a marquee opponent. Their QB situation is not yet settled (played 2 last week) and Kansas State has a much better defense than Memphis. While it may look like a lot of points, Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS L11 as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. Time of possession will be key here as LY saw K-State rank ninth in that department while ASU was 113th. Even before factoring in a minimal homefield advantage (there will be fans), I thought this number was simply too low. Lay the points. 8* Kansas State | |||||||
09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Texans/Chiefs (8:25 ET): Kansas City is off a Super Bowl winning season in which it covered its final eight games. This despite trailing by double digits in three of the four playoff games, one of which being the Super Bowl and there were less than nine minutes remaining. Perhaps the most infamous of the three playoff comebacks came in the Divisional Round against the very same Texans that the Chiefs will open the 2020 season against. In that game, KC trailed 24-0 only to score 51 of the game’s final 58 points. Though Houston obviously did not win the Super Bowl and blew a game in which it led 24-0, they did have a large amount of good fortune go their way in 2019. They were 8-3 SU in one-score games, including 5-1 in those decided by three points or less. That’s how you go 10-6 SU despite a point differential of -7 on the year. I had this team as a lock to regress even before an offseason filled with highly questionable personnel moves by HC/GM Bill O’Brien, the most notable seeing him trade away WR DeAndre Hopkins for “peanuts on the dollar.” You see DeShaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes and the automatic inclination is to expect plenty of fireworks (see last January). But this is the 1st game of the year, after a condensed and unusual training camp, and a very high total for Week 1. Houston’s offense won’t be close to as good as it was last year as they lost over 45% of their offensive touches. KC won’t be going on the same kind of ridiculous scoring stretch it did in LY’s Divisional Playoff Game. The Under is 11-4-1 the Texans’ L16 September games. 10* Under Texans/Chiefs | |||||||
09-10-20 | UAB +14 v. Miami-FL | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
8* UAB (8:00 ET): I think we all need to take a moment and appreciate the job HC Bill Clark has done with UAB football. This program actually ceased to exist for two seasons (2015-16) due to the university’s financial situation. But in the three years since its return, the Blazers have won 27 games and appeared in the last two C-USA Title Games, even winning the 2018 version. They were one of the most inexperienced teams in the entire country LY, but are now one of the MOST experienced in 2020 w/ 18 starters back. Miami is in many ways the opposite of UAB. They are considered a College Football “institution.” Yet the Hurricanes have just ONE bowl win since 2006 and posted a losing record last season at 6-7 SU. Yet the ‘Canes got the coveted “Most Improved Team in the Country” moniker from Phil Steele in his publication, largely due to QB D’Eriq King transferring in from Houston. That kind of attention often leads to a team being overvalued early on in the season and that’s precisely the case here for “The U” in Thursday’s opener. For the record, I agree with Steele that Miami is going to be improved this year. But they had just TWO double digit victories last season, both over non-bowl teams, so I find it hard to believe they’re going to be able to come out and dominate a team like UAB that has experience and won 9 games a year ago. This has been a weird offseason to say the least and Miami could have some growing pains integrating its key transfers. Not only is UAB experienced, they did get six spring practices in and have a game already under their belt. Last week’s 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. Miami is just 7-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons w/ 12 outright losses! 8* UAB | |||||||
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy +1 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
10* Navy (8:00 ET): 2019 saw Navy make the jump from 3-10 to 11-2 straight up. Not only that, but the Midshipmen were also one of the best bets in the country at 10-3 ATS. Last season’s bounce back in Annapolis was largely inevitable as the 3-10 SU record in 2018 was the worst in any season under HC Ken Niaumatalolo. Regression this year is every bit as inevitable, but look for the Middies to still win a bunch of games. This game w/ BYU is a lot better matchup than the originally scheduled opener, which was Notre Dame in Ireland. BYU was supposed to open its season against “Holy War” rival Utah. But with the Pac 12 cancelling its season (for now), the Cougars head across the country instead. BYU had its own “down” year in 2018, winning just 4 games. But they’ve since gone 7-6 SU two straight seasons. Three of the wins last year were by a field goal. A major issue that they are dealing with right now is the injury to TE Matt Bushman. His season ending Achilles injury means BYU will be without last year’s four top receivers. Another issue I see for BYU in this game is that their defense was very susceptible to the run a year ago. They gave up 168 YPG over land, the most ever under HC Sitake. As we all know, few teams in the country are as adept as the Naval Academy is when it comes to running the football. They put up 361 YPG rushing LY at 6.1 YPC. This line has “jumped the fence” (meaning BYU now favored), but wherever it ends up, the fact BYU is 1-4 SU/ATS its L5 games where the line is a FG or less and Navy is 4-1 SU/ATS will apply. Navy won all six home games last season, doing so by an average of more than 20 PPG. My own power ratings suggest they should be about a 7-pt favorite here and that’s w/o factoring in much of a home field advantage. 10* Navy | |||||||
09-05-20 | SMU v. Texas State UNDER 69.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
*10* Under SMU/Texas State (4:30 ET): When these teams met last year in Dallas, the game just snuck Over the 63-point total as SMU won 47-17 and easily covered the 17-point spread. That was the third game of the season and SMU had a HUGE edge in total yards (639-242), so it was total domination. The second half of this “home and home” series takes place in San Marcos and is SMU’s first ever visit here. While it’s likely to result in another lopsided win for the Mustangs, I feel this game could be a lot lower-scoring. The 47-17 win by SMU last year was really emblematic of how the two teams’ respective seasons went. SMU would go on to win 10 games and make the Boca Raton Bowl (where they were thrashed 52-28 by Florida Atlantic in a de facto road game). Texas State was just 3-9 SU in 2019, their fifth consecutive season with three or fewer wins. There are some key metrics that indicate the Bobcats will be improved this year, but they’re still not a great team by any means. They averaged only 18.4 PPG last season, the fourth straight year below 20 PPG. SMU’s points per game average jumped all the way to 41.8 in 2019. I expect that number will come down even with QB Shane Buechele returning. The top two running backs from LY both graduated. I do not see the same regression taking hold on the defensive side of the ball, however. Quietly, the Mustangs led the entire country in sacks in 2019! Obviously Texas State isn’t going to score many points here and I think SMU won’t match LY’s number (47) against the Bobcats. Take the Under. 10* Under SMU/Texas State | |||||||
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss OVER 53.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss (9:00 ET): Perhaps the strangest College Football season EVER (at least in my lifetime) officially gets underway Thursday with the first matchup of FBS teams. Though the schools are separated by just 100 miles, this will actually be the first ever meeting between South Alabama and Southern Miss. The former wasn’t very good last year (finished 2-10 SU) nor were they very good the year before (3-9 SU) for HC Steve Campbell, who enters his third season at the helm. Southern Miss is coming off a 7-win season, which ended with a 30-13 loss to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl. South Alabama’s offense was pretty pitiful for most of last season. At one point, there was a six-game stretch (all losses) where they failed to score more than 17 points. All six of those games also happened to stay Under the total. But over the final four games, something flipped as Desmond Trotter took over their starting reigns at QB. With Trotter under center, the Over was 3-1 and the Jaguars scored 27+ pts three different times. Their season even ended with a huge outright win over Arkansas State, 34-30, as 10.5-point underdogs. I expect the USA offense to “take a leap” in 2020 and it helps that Trotter will have his top two WR back. Southern Miss averaged 26.6 points per game a year ago, which doesn’t sound all that bad, but consider that the Golden Eagles also averaged a very healthy 6.1 yards per play. Turnovers at inopportune times as well as red zone inefficiencies definitely hurt them. Those things tend to “even out” from year to year, so I’m expecting USM’s PPG average to also go up in 2020. QB Jack Abraham led all of Conference USA w/ 15 completions of 40+ yards on his way to a near 3500 yard season last year. He’s also completed 70% of his passes in the L2 seasons. South Alabama has given up 30+ PPG both seasons under Campbell and has to replace virtually all of LY’s defensive front. 10* Over South Alabama/Southern Miss | |||||||
02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show |
10* Under 49ers/Chiefs (6:30 ET): Before the start of the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they’ve gone from 4-12 to 15-3 SU and are in the Super Bowl for a seventh time in franchise history. The last time, under Jim Harbaugh and with Colin Kaepernick at QB, is the only one they’ve lost. That was against Baltimore, seven years ago, and they were never “in the money” as 4-point favorites (lost 34-31). While even I ended up being surprised over just how much the 49ers improved, make no mistake about it, this was the best team in the NFC all year long. Kansas City did not finish with the best record in the AFC (Baltimore did), but here they are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years. It’s the first Super Bowl for HC Andy Reid since losing to the Patriots when he was with the Eagles. This team is probably better than any Eagles team he coached. The Chiefs are not only on an 8-game SU winning streak coming into the biggest game of the year, they have gone 8-0 ATS in those games as well. One of the biggest reasons for that is an improved defense. While we really haven’t seen that in either of the two playoff games, KC has allowed an average of just 13.7 PPG during the eight-game win streak. Believe it or not, this is likely to close as one of the highest O/U lines for any Chiefs game this season. Early in the season, there were two games with 55-point totals. This will certainly close as the highest O/U line for any Niners game this year. SF games average 49.1 PPG. KC games average 50.0 on the dot. We know the 49ers can play defense as they rank #2 in yards allowed. Both of these defenses are top 10 in scoring. The Under is 7-2-1 in the 10 Super Bowls w/ totals of 50+ pts, including last year’s 13-3 game. Based on the two Conference Championship Games, the public will be on the Over in this game. I’ll take the Under. 10* Under 49ers/Chiefs | |||||||
02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:30 ET): So, after much consternation, the Chiefs are my pick to cover the spread in Super Bowl LIV. While I agree with the oddsmakers’ assertion that these teams do rate pretty evenly, what this play ultimately comes down to is taking the more proven commodity. Admittedly, San Francisco was my pick to be the most improved team in the league this year and went from 4-12 to 15-3 SU. But Kansas City has won 10+ games each of the L5 seasons, not to mention has won/covered eight in a row coming into Sunday. They’ll have the best player on the field (Patrick Mahomes) and I believe will win their 1st SB in 50 years. Despite falling behind Houston 24-0 in the Divisional Round and Tennessee 17-7 in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs were able to storm back and win both games by double digits. Mahomes and the offense have been absurdly efficient in the playoff, scoring a touchdown on 60% of all drives, including seven straight vs. the Texans. It won’t be that easy against the 49ers, who rank 2nd in total defense. But slowing this Chiefs’ offense down is easier said than done. In the end, I trust Mahomes to put up more points than Jimmy Garoppolo. Don’t discount what the Chiefs’ defense has been doing either. During their 8-0 SU/ATS run, they’ve held the opposition to an average of just 13.7 PPG. In the regular season, they (like the 49ers) were a top 10 scoring defense. Interestingly enough, in the last 18 Super Bowls, the team with the fewer wins has gone 15-2-1 ATS. That’s KC here. The Chiefs have covered the spread by an average of 7 pts during the 8-0 ATS run and Andy Reid has always been outstanding off a bye, going 21-8 ATS in his career, including 2-0 this season. 10* Kansas City | |||||||
01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Packers/49ers (6:40 ET): This total is pretty close to what the combined number of points was in the regular season meeting. Of course that game, a 37-8 49ers’ win and cover as 3-pt chalk, was completely lopsided. I think Green Bay is going to be a lot more competitive this time around although I won’t deny that San Francisco remains the much better team, confirmed by the fact that they have a +186 YTD point differential while Green Bay is just +68. But this is a lot of points to lay to a team that has Aaron Rodgers at QB. Then again, Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro back in Week 12 on this very field. He threw for just 104 yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt with no completion going longer than 15 yards. Fresh off its bye and back at full strength, the 49ers’ defense displayed similar form last week against the Vikings, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and seven first downs total. In other words, I don’t expect the Packers to score very many points this week. But the Green Bay defense is likely to keep them in this one. This is a team that hasn’t lost since that regular season matchup against the 49ers and during the 6-game win streak, they have yielded a total of just 94 points! Prior to last week’s 28-23 win over Seattle (I had the Over), the Packers’ previous four games had all stayed Under the total. It’s a much better defense that they are up against here and last week the Pack were held to 7 points after halftime. For the season, both defenses are allowing less than 20 PPG. 10* Under Packers/49ers | |||||||
01-19-20 | Titans +8 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -130 | 72 h 51 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (3:05 ET): The Titans obviously made a lot of history last week in what was also a big win for the sportsbooks. Baltimore had been 36-0 all-time (SU) as a double digit favorite, the only franchise never to lose as DD chalk. They’d also never lost at home as more than 8.5-pt favorite. But the Titans changed all that with a 28-12 upset and are now 8-1 ATS all-time as underdogs of 7 or more under HC Mike Vrabel, pulling SEVEN outright upsets along the way including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season. Kansas City won its Divisional Round game against Houston 51-31, but anyone that watched knows it wasn’t that easy as the Chiefs had to rally from an early 24-0 hole. Outscoring the Texans 51-7 the rest of the way was quite an achievement, however, here they are up against a far more stout team on the defensive side of the ball. Even with last week’s ATS victory, the Chiefs are still only 2-10 ATS all-time at Arrowhead in the playoffs. Tennessee has already beaten New England and Baltimore to get here while all Kansas City did was beat Houston, the team I had rated the lowest coming into the playoffs. My number for this game is +4.5 so there’s clear value on the Titans, who have already beaten the Chiefs this year, 35-32 (+4) in Nashville back in Week 10. I had Tennessee in that game. The Titans defense has allowed just 25 points in two playoff games while the offense features RB Henry, who has gone for 180+ yds in both games. Since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB, Tennessee has gone 9-3 SU w/ a point differential of +82. While they were outgained by Baltimore, that was because of garbage time. I passed on the Titans last week, not here. 10* Tennessee | |||||||
01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 59 m | Show |
10* Clemson (8:00 ET): Not prejudiced at all by what happened with my Bowl Game of the Year on Ohio State, which lost despite the Buckeyes outgaining Clemson 516-417. If anything, I GAINED more respect for the Tigers, who have now won 29 straight games and are 6-2 SU all-time in the CFP. This program is now set to appear in the Championship Game for the 4th time in 5 seasons and is seeking its 3rd title in the last 4 seasons. Looking back to last year’s Title Game, I now feel like a bit of a “broken record” as I can’t believe I’m getting so many points with a team that has this kind of resume. Clemson can win this game. Take the points. LSU obviously had no difficulty in the Peach Bowl, annihilating Oklahoma by a score of 63-28. QB Burrow threw for SEVEN TD passes in the 1H alone as the game was never in doubt. But it must be pointed out that there was a severe dropoff between the top three teams in CFP and Oklahoma. No one expected the Sooners to win once, let alone twice. Meanwhile, Clemson just beat the team many (myself included) considered the best team in the country most of this year. The big reason I faded Clemson in the Orange Bowl was I did not believe they should have been the favorite. But now they’re an underdog and I see plenty of value. Going back to the 2015 Title Game, Clemson has been a dog just six times. They are 5-1 ATS with four outright wins. All but one of those games were in the CFP. Those who think LSU is going to move the ball up and down the field against what is still the country’s top scoring defense (11.5 PPG allowed) are sorely mistaken. On the flip side, I expect more points from the Clemson offense here as they are freed from the poor field conditions at the Orange Bowl. The Tigers had the nation’s best scoring differential in the regular season and are 11-3 ATS. 10* Clemson | |||||||
01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
10* Over Seahawks/Packers (6:40 ET): All four Wild Card games were low-scoring and stayed Under the total. But the final Divisional Round matchup of the weekend figures to see some “fireworks” as arguably the two most overachieving teams in the NFL collide at Lambeau Field. Seattle, who beat Philadelphia 17-9 last weekend, is now 12-5 straight up. But they have just one win all year by more than eight points. Green Bay went 13-3 SU in the regular season, thus earning a bye, but they only outscored their opponents by 63 points and were 7-1 SU in one-score games. So I won’t dare make a play on the side here. But the total and how it’s been bet has caught my eye. While the win in Philly was ugly, Seattle did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last Sunday. That’s a strong average and I’m not sure the Packers defense is much better than the Eagles. Some traditional measures, like points allowed, might make it seem like they are. But Green Bay gave up more yards on a per play and per game basis. It’s been awhile since the Packers defense faced a QB anywhere near as dynamic as Russell Wilson. The Packers’ ended the regular season on a 7-1 Under run including 4-0 L4. But again, the offenses they went against were not the best. The only three playoff teams they faced that weren’t Minnesota all scored at least 24 points on them. And one of the Minnesota games saw the Vikings gain over 7.0 YPP. The other they were without RB Dalvin Cook. Seattle’s defense isn’t that great either (allows 375 YPG, 6.1 YPP) and will be facing Aaron Rodgers, not Josh McCown. Rodgers has had a “down” year, but I look for him to play well here. 10* Over Seahawks/Packers | |||||||
01-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Despite needing OT to get the ‘W’, I thought the Vikings looked very impressive in their Wild Card triumph in New Orleans. Not that it was unexpected on this end. I made the following statements in my analysis of the game. “I think we’re getting a great number here…. People REALLY seem to be underrating the Vikings.” Sure enough, they pulled the outright upset in a VERY tough place to win. Six seeds have not done well in the Divisional Rd recently (0-8 SU L8 years), but I actually had Minnesota rated as the 3rd best NFC team coming into these playoffs. Take the points. Before the season, San Francisco was my choice to be the most improved team in the league. Sure enough, they made the huge jump from 4-12 to 13-3 SU. But now they must deal with the weight of expectations and this is a roster with little in the way of postseason experience. Also, the 49ers have not done well as a favorite of six points or more. They are a money-burning 1-12-1 ATS in that role since 2014, including 0-6-1 ATS this season. Four of Minnesota’s six losses this year were by seven points or fewer. The last five games of the 49ers’ regular season were all decided in the final 10 seconds. Coming off the bye, the 49ers’ defense is as healthy as it’s been in awhile. But let’s not undercut what Minnesota’s defense is capable of as it just held the Saints to 324 total yards and 100 of that was from Taysom Hill. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo, making his 1st ever playoff start here, played the worst game of his career against Mike Zimmer’s defense. It was last year and he threw three interceptions in a 24-16 loss. The last nine quarterbacks to make their first playoff start have combined to go 2-7 ATS. For the Vikings, I’m not as concerned with WR Adam Thielen’s status now that RB Dalvin Cook is back. As you saw last week, this offense is a lot better with a healthy Cook (missed last two regular season games). 10* Minnesota | |||||||
01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 35 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:40 ET): Road teams have dominated the Wild Card Round the last two years, going 8-0 ATS and 5-3 SU. However, none of them were favored as Seattle is here. You actually have to go all the way back to 2015, when three of the four home teams were getting points, to find the last home dog in the WC round. My numbers patently disagree with this line as they say the Eagles should be favored by 4 points! The reason for the discrepancy is not only due to all the Eagles' injuries, but also the disparity in records. But don't be fooled. Take the points. Seattle is a very fraudulent 11-5 SU team. They finished w/ a +7 YTD point differential, 2nd worst among playoff teams (only Houston's -7 was worse). The Eagles, despite winning two fewer games, finished w/ a +31 YTD point differential. The Seahawks' point differential is more indicative of a 9-win team. It would be very fair to place this team among the very worst 11+ win teams in NFL history. Key to their success was Russell Wilson's playmaking, but more so extremely good fortune in close games. They were a league best 10-2 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That's right - they had only ONE win by more than 8 pts and it was against Arizona back in Wk 4! One of those close wins was here in Philadelphia back in Week 12, 17-9 as a 1-pt favorite. This is the only regular season rematch of the WC round. Obviously, it's very hard to beat the same team on the road twice in the same season and Philadelphia always seems to "turn it up a notch" here in the playoffs. Though this will be Carson Wentz's first career playoff start (really!), the Eagles have gone 5-0 ATS the L2 years in the postseason & they've been an underdog every time! They've pulled four outright upsets, the only SU loss coming LY in New Orleans, and of course won the Super Bowl two years ago. So Doug Pederson's team being "overlooked" is nothing new. Once again, they make the doubters pay. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 0 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): As per usual, Kirk Cousins' poor record against good teams will be front and center here. The Vikings QB is a shocking 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS against teams that won at least 12 regular season games. While I'm not willing to bet that Cousins can lead his team to an outright win in the Mercedes Benz Superdome on Sunday, I do see him and the Vikes keeping this one close. Maybe it's because they ended their regular season w/ B2B home losses, but people REALLY seem to be underrating Minnesota in this spot. It's the first time since Cousins arrived that they are getting more than seven points. My power ratings say the spread should only be -4.5. Take the points. New Orleans has been on fire down the stretch and is a league-best 11-3 ATS since Week 3. That includes a 5-0 record when Drew Brees was out with an injury. But the Saints are far from "sure bet" in this instance. They are just 2-5 ATS their L7 home playoff games and each of their L7 playoff games (whether home or road) have been decided by eight points or less. They actually haven't won a playoff game by more than six points since the 2011 Wild Card Round vs. Detroit. Hot as they were down the stretch, the Saints had some good luck this year w/ an 8-1 SU record in games decided by eight points or less. I believe we're getting a great number here. The spread would have been much shorter had this game been played just a few weeks ago. The Vikings did not have RB Dalvin Cook for either of the L2 regular season games (all offensive starters rested last week), so the offensive numbers from those games are misleading. Cook is set to return here, which will be a big difference maker. The Vikings have not lost three in a row since 2016 and are 2-0 ATS since when off B2B losses. Going into last week's meaningless regular season finale, they had been 25-9-1 ATS off a loss under HC Zimmer including 4-0 this season. Four of Minnesota's six losses this year have been by 7 pts or less. Their defense allows fewer PPG compared to the Saints. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 0 m | Show |
10* Under Vikings/Saints (1:00 ET): Finishing the regular season 10-6 SU is pretty good, but I feel Minnesota is better than their record as they played the last two games w/o RB Dalvin Cook and lost both. (Furthermore, they basically rested everyone in a meaningless Week 17 game vs. Chicago). Their YTD point differential of +104 was better than all but six teams in the league. That said, if they are to keep this Wild Card Game in New Orleans close, or even pull the outright upset, it'll likely be because of a defense that allows just only 18.9 PPG rather than Kirk Cousins and the offense. The O/U line has been bet up here and I see value on the Under. The Saints went 13-3 SU despite missing Drew Brees for 5+ games. They won all five games Brees didn't start, which was key. But there's no doubt this team hit its stride down the stretch w/ Brees back in the lineup. Still don't discount the impact the Saints defense has had on the team's success this season. It's been the best in the league at stopping the run over the L2 years and that's key when facing a Vikings' offense that is going to look to put the ball in Cook's hands. In case you're wondering, this is a pretty high spread for the Wild Card round. Going back to 2012, it's only the 8th instance of a WC Game having a spread of a TD or more. The previous seven all went Under the total! In fact, 10 of the last 11 WC games with a spread of at least six points stayed Under. New Orleans is giving up only 21.3 PPG and allowed 17 pts or fewer seven times. 10* Under Vikings/Saints | |||||||
01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | Top | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): For many, the Bills making the playoffs was a surprise. I know I wasn't expecting it. They won only six games LY, but increased that number to 10 in 2019, which is one more win than they had when they made the playoffs in Sean McDermott's first season (2017). While they certainly rode a fairly easy schedule to get here, give Buffalo credit for outscoring its opponents by 55 points in the regular season, a top 10 differential and that's after losing the L2 games (rested starters in Wk 17). The defense is quite legit as it ranked 2nd in scoring (16.2 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (298.3 YPG). If it's true that "defense wins in the playoffs," then the Bills might be in better shape than we all think. Houston also went 10-6 SU, which was enough to win the AFC South. When Colts QB Andrew Luck shockingly hung up his cleats, most figured the Texans would run away with this division. But they were by no means a dominant team. They were the only playoff team to get outscored this year (-7 point differential). The defense really fell off a cliff in the second half, which was tied to J.J. Watt being absent from the lineup. While Watt's return for the playoffs seems to be the headline story here, make no mistake about it - the Bills still have a better defense than the Texans. Buffalo infamously has not won a playoff game since 1995, the league third longest active drought. But Houston has hardly been a playoff juggernaut, going 1-3 SU/ATS under HC Bill O'Brien, including an outright loss here at home to the Colts LY. While Watt is back, the health of WR Will Fuller may be of greater concern for the Texans. QB DeShaun Watson simply isn't the same w/o Fuller. Bills QB Josh Allen was actually one of three QB's to run for more yds than Watson this year. While the Bills allowed the fewest yards per carry to QB's (2.8), the Texans allowed the second most (5.6). Excluding last week's game when they rested starters, the Bills are 10-5-1 ATS as dogs since Allen became the starter. They also went 6-2 SU on the road (6-1-1 ATS) averaging more points than they did at home. Houston is 8-15 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons (nine outright losses) including 1-6 this season. Not only do the Bills have the better defense, they are the better team. Take the points. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 56 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss (11:30 AM ET): The Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, TX will be the home for our top College Football bowl total. Both Tulane and Southern Miss are led by the respective offenses, each of which can claim to have a QB that accounted for at least 3,000 total yards. In the case of Tulane's Justin McMillan, he ran for 704 yards in addition to throwing for 2,229. Nearly half (12) of his 26 total TD's came on the ground. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham got there in more of a "traditional sense" with 3,329 yards passing, though five of his 23 total TDs were rushing. Take the Over here. Tulane didn't exactly play well down the stretch as they come in having lost five of six, including three straight. This is the exact opposite of last year when they started 2-5 SU before closing on a 5-1 run that included a 41-24 bowl win (Cure) over Louisiana. Still they did go 6-1 SU/ATS as chalk in 2019 and they are favored in this game. That's pretty significant as the Green Wave averaged 41.1 PPG this year when favored. But it's also easy to see why they faltered down the stretch and that's a leaky defense that gave up an average of 35.7 points those L6 games. The Southern Miss offense didn't do much of anything in the last two regular season games and that's what cost them a shot at playing for the C-USA Championship. In fact, the Golden Eagles' last five games have all stayed Under. But this is a bowl game and I expect a more wide open offensive display. You have two offenses averaging over 400 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. These are old rivals both happy to be in a bowl game. Southern Miss scored 30 or more seven times while Tulane crossed that threshold eight times. Be prepared for a shootout. 10* Over Tulane/Southern Miss | |||||||
01-03-20 | Ohio -7.5 v. Nevada | Top | 30-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 13 m | Show |
10* Ohio (3:30 ET): Of the 78 FBS teams that made it into a bowl game, we have Nevada rated as the worst. The Wolf Pack went 7-5 SU in what was a "down year" in the Mountain West Conference and had only two wins by more the seven points. Those two wins were against UTEP and New Mexico, who combined for a 3-21 SU record. Two stunning upsets - over Purdue and San Diego State (both coming as 17-pt dogs) - are what got them to Idaho for the Famous Potato Bowl. Ohio had a disappointing regular season as many, myself included, figured this was the year they'd finally win a MAC Championship for HC Frank Solich (15th season in Athens). But the Bobcats still are w/o a MAC Championship going all the way back to 1968. The reason for that is tey underachieved this year, losing four different times as a favorite. But even though neither played in the Conference Championship Game, we still consider OU right next to Western Michigan as the best teams the MAC had to offer this year. The Bobcats offense averaged nearly 35 PPG and is led by QB Nathan Rourke, who threw for 2,676 yards w/ a 20-5 TD-INT ratio. Adding to the list of Nevada issues is that five players have been suspended for this game. Four of them are defensive starters. Three are among the top six tacklers on an already suspect defense (32.1 PPG allowed). Three of the four suspended defensive starters won't play at all, the fourth will miss only the 1st half. The reason for the suspensions was a fight w/ UNLV at the end of the regular season finale. The Wolf Pack were outscored by nearly 11 PPG this year, a stunning margin for a bowl team. Basically the entire defensive coaching staff was let go after the loss to the UNLV. While this number has already moved some, that's okay as we have Ohio as almost a two-touchdown favorite for this one! 10* Ohio | |||||||
01-02-20 | Tennessee v. Indiana +2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:00 ET): Indiana has not won a bowl game since the '91 Copper. Granted, they've been to only four since, but this program is dying for something resembling a "marquee" victory. Beating Tennessee in the Gator Bowl would certainly qualify. The Hoosiers have perennially struggled to beat the top teams they face as is evident by a shocking 1-16 SU record as an underdog under HC Tom Allen (third year here). But A LOT of those games have been close. My own power rankings say IU should be the favorite here, so I'll take them with the added value. Things were not looking good for Tennessee after a 1-4 SU start that included a home loss to Georgia State. But credit HC Jeremy Pruitt for turning things around in Knoxville as the Vols finished on a 6-1 SU run w/ the lone loss coming to Alabama. But as far as SEC schedules go, the one UT made its run against was pretty easy. It has only two wins over bowl teams, those being Kentucky (by 4) and Mississippi State (by 10). They lost to Florida, Georgia and Bama by an average of nearly four touchdowns per game. I'm really not sure why the Volunteers were bet to the role of favorite here. Admittedly, you could say some of the same things about Indiana as they didn't beat a single bowl team and all of its losses were to teams ranked at the time. But I come back to the Hoosiers wanting that elusive bowl win. In the two years before Allen's arrival, they were close, losing by three in overtime to Duke (Pinstripe) then by two to Utah (Foster Farms). The latter was actually Allen's first game as HC (was interim). I'm trusting my own numbers and for the Hoosiers to be the more motivated side here. 10* Indiana | |||||||
01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati OVER 54.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati (3:00 ET): B.C. is clearly not at "full strength" entering the Birmingham Bowl. Despite leading his (now former) team to an upset win over Pitt in the regular season finale (that got them bowl eligible), Steve Addazio was let go as the HC after seven seasons where the Eagles never finished w/ more than seven victories. RB A.J. Dillon, the team's best player, won't be suiting up here either as he's getting ready for the NFL Draft. So it's no wonder B.C. is a decided underdog here. But if we've learned anything about the Eagles it's that they are a dangerous underdog. They've covered 13 of the last 19 times getting points including a 9-0 ATS record priced between +3.5 and +10. Five of those nine covers came this season. Furthermore, Cincinnati comes into this game with a possible lack of motivation after suffering B2B losses to Memphis. The second was in the American Conference Championship Game and that cost them the chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. Still, Luke Fickell has done a good job here in guiding the program to B2B 10+ win seasons and the Bearcats are definitely a better team than B.C. But will they show up? One thing I'm counting on is Cincy scoring plenty of points in this one as the Boston College defense was not up to par in 2019, giving up 31.7 points and 480.3 yards per game. The Eagles are among the worst teams in the country at defending the pass. Despite Dillon sitting out and an interim head coach (Rich Gunnell), I expect Boston College's offense to perform better than expected. Dillon's backup David Bailey ran for 811 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. This is an offense that averaged more than 30 PPG. But the B.C. defense remains a major liability. Cincinnati comes in on a five-game Under streak, but I expect that to change here in a game where both teams could go for 30+ pts. Another key factor is that the Bearcats' defense allowed only 13.3 PPG at home, but 28.9 PPG on the road. 10* Over Boston College/Cincinnati | |||||||
01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia -4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
10* Georgia (8:45 ET): A stunning number of Georgia players (13!) will be sitting out here in order to avoid injury. As a result, the 5th ranked team in the country has been bet down considerably for this Sugar Bowl matchup w/ Baylor on New Year's Day. Almost all the players that are sitting out can be counted among the two-deep on the roster and six are starters. But it sure seems as if people are "forgetting" how good the Bulldogs were this year. Those who do suit up are going to be motivated and with the number being bet down so much, I'm willing to lay it! Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country. Sure, they gave up 37 points to LSU in the SEC Championship Game. But given how the top-ranked Tigers looked against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal Saturday, that's really not all that bad. It was actually 12 pts below LSU's season average and one of only three times the Tigers were held below 40 pts in the regular season. I know Baylor HC Matt Rhule has an incredible ATS record when getting points (34-14 all-time). But even with QB Charlie Brewer back under center (suffered concussion in Big 12 Champ Game), I believe the Bears are going to struggle to score here. Those Georgia players that do take the field New Year's Night will be motivated. Not just because everyone is seemingly "writing them off," but also because of what happened in this game last year. The Bulldogs were 12-point favorites against Texas, came in and gave an uninspired effort and lost outright 28-21. I had the Under on that game, which was also a double-digit winner. I don't see history repeating itself w/ UGA laying an egg in B2B Sugar Bowls. This is great value as Baylor overachieved this year, winning four games by less than three points or in overtime. 10* Georgia | |||||||
12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming (4:30 ET): Admittedly, Wyoming very much has the statistical profile of an Under team. They have a defense that allows just 17.8 points per game and just 2.9 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the offense comes into the Arizona Bowl averaging just 24.3 PPG and 18.3 outside of Laramie. Since QB Sean Chambers (dual threat) went down with a season-ending knee injury, it's no wonder that every Cowboys game has finished Under the total. Overall, they are on a six-game Under streak coming into this game. However, it's a much different story with the Georgia State defense, which allows a 65% completion percentage and 5.3 yards per carry. They give up 36.1 points and 451 yards per game and those numbers get even worse away from home. Thankfully though, the Panthers can score. They average 32.4 points and 446.9 yards per game. So this will be a real "clash of styles" on New Year's Eve afternoon. The Wyoming offense may not have the most impressive resume, but they come into the Arizona Bowl as a bit of a "wild card" due to the fact seldom used freshman Levi Williams will get the start at QB. Look for the Pokes to heavily lean on RB Xazavian Valladay, who had a 1,000 yd regular season. Given that Georgia State's defense allows such a high number of YPC, look for Wyoming to move the ball more than they usually do. There were seven different games this season where Georgia State opponents had 200+ rushing yards. Those six opponents averaged a whopping 42.2 PPG, all but one scoring at least 37. The Georgia State offense will do enough to help get this one get Over. 10* Over Georgia State/Wyoming | |||||||
12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida UNDER 55.5 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under Virginia/Florida (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl is expected to be pretty lopsided with Florida now a two-touchdown favorite over Virginia. Virginia did win its division (ACC Coastal) and will always hold a special place in our hearts as they were our 10* Game of the Year against Virginia Tech in the regular season finale. They got it done, winning 39-30 as a 1.5-point underdog. That win also snapped a 15-year losing skid to the Hokies. Unfortunately, the Hoos then got their doors blown off in the ACC Championship Game by Clemson, losing 62-17. So its easy to see why they are such big dogs for this game. Florida surprised me some by delivering a second straight 10-win season for HC Dan Mullen. The Gators' only two losses were to LSU and Georgia. They won their last three games by a total of 96 points. The QB situation is something to monitor here. While Kyle Trask completed over 67% of his attempts for 2,636 yards, there have been rumblings about Mullen wanting to "open things up" with Emory Jones. Virginia's offense averaged 32.4 PPG (2nd most in school history) behind QB Bryce Perkins. I know their last five games all went Over, but look for the Cavaliers to struggle to move the ball here, much like they did vs. Clemson in the ACC Championship. Florida's defense allows just 14.4 PPG, has pitched three shutouts this year and has held five different opponents without a touchdown. Virginia doesn't really run the ball effectively, so if they become one-dimensional vs. Florida, they are in big trouble. Both teams scored a lot less away from home (Virginia just 22.5 PPG, Florida 26.5), so look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Virginia/Florida | |||||||
12-30-19 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (12:30 ET): If Western Michigan doesn't show up motivated for the First Responder Bowl on Monday afternoon (in Dallas), then I don't know what to say. They lost the regular season finale (as a 10-point favorite) at Northern Illinois, which cost them a chance to play for the MAC Championship. The Broncos were probably the best team in the MAC this year. They beat both teams that ended up in the Championship Game - Miami by 22 and Central Michigan by 16. They have both the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year from the conference. Western Kentucky went 3-9 SU last year. So not many people were expecting a bowl appearance in Tyson Helton's first season in Bowling Green. But the Hilltoppers improved all the way to 8-4 SU on the back of pulling five outright upsets, one of them 45-19 over Arkansas, which was ironic because that's where QB Ty Storey transfered from. I am surprised that WKU is favored here. They were a favorite just four times in the regular season, none of those against bowl teams (one was a FCS team). They faced only four bowl teams all year and went 2-2 SU in those games (beat Southern Miss & UAB). Another motivating factor for Western Michigan here is their 1-8 SU record in bowls. They got embarrassed out in Idaho LY by BYU 47-18. I realize that the Broncos had just one win outside Kalamazoo this year, but I believe they are the better team here. Thus, getting points, I'm on board. They were an underdog in only four games in the regular season and the only one where they were getting more than 3.5 points was against Michigan State. Western Kentucky is just 4-12-1 ATS its L17 games as a favorite w/ eight outright losses. Take the points. 8* Western Michigan | |||||||
12-29-19 | Raiders v. Broncos OVER 40.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
10* Over Raiders/Broncos (4:25 ET): For a 7-8 team that's technically still alive for the playoffs, Oakland absolutely reeks. The Silver and Black have been outscored by 105 points this year. Only four teams have worse point differentials and none of them have more than five wins. Three of the four have four wins or less. How the Raiders have been able to get to 7-8 can be explained by a 7-2 SU record in one-score games. That's right. They have not won a game by more than eight points all year. Ironically, their largest win came in Week 1 against Denver, the team they'll conclude the regular season against. Running back Josh Jacobs has been ruled out of this game, not a great sign for a Raiders team that needs A LOT to go right on Sunday to make the playoffs. But even w/o Jacobs, the likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Raiders still put up 24 points last week against a good Chargers' defense. Jacobs' replacement, DeAndre Washington, ran for 85 yards on 23 carries last week. That was along with QB Carr completing 26 of his 30 passes. Carr has completed over 83% of his pass attempts against the Broncos the L2 years, all of those of resulting in Oakland wins. It was a 24-16 final when these teams met on Monday Night Football in Week 1. That was back when the Broncos were still starting Joe Flacco at QB. Now its rookie Drew Lock. The Denver offense has generally been better with Lock at the helm, including in 27-17 win right here at home last week. The Oakland defense gives up 6.2 yards per play and 26.9 PPG. Look for WR Courtland Sutton to have a big game here. The L6 meetings may have all stayed Under, but this one won't. 10* Over Raiders/Broncos | |||||||
12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): HC Dan Quinn has improbably saved his job in Atlanta thanks to a 5-2 run down the stretch. (GM Thomas Dimitroff will be returning as well). While the decision by Falcons' owner Arthur Blank had to be a nice "late Christmas gift" for the Quinn and Dimitroff families, I think it saps a lot of the supposed motivation we were supposed to see from this team in Week 17. Before the decision was made on Saturday, I was reading a lot of Falcons backers that felt the motivation to preserve their coach's job would carry the team here. Remember that one of Atlanta's two losses in these last seven games came to the team they facing in Week 17, that being Tampa Bay. The Bucs (7-8) have a better record than the Falcons (6-9) and looked every bit the better team back in Week 12 when they won 35-22 as a three-point underdog. For us, the Bucs were a signature *10* Ultimate Power release that day. The score was even a bit misleading as Tampa Bay missed THREE extra points and Atlanta scored a TD in garbage time. While Atlanta seems to be getting a lot of credit for how its played in the second half of the season, the Bucs are the better team and have also improved during the same timeframe. Really, they should have a better record than 7-8 SU as they've outgained and outscored their opponents this season. Last week was a classic "false final" as they outgained the Texans by over 200 yds, but lost by a field goal thanks to FOUR James Winston interceptions (one returned for a TD). While Winston's 28 INT's lead the league, he also has 31 TD passes and leads the league in passing yards. Despite missing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, he still threw for 335 yards, so the absences hardly hurt the offense. My numbers suggest TB should be laying almost a touchdown here. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
12-29-19 | Browns v. Bengals +3 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Backing the team with the worst record in the league may not sound good on paper, but Cincinnati is "free and clear" here having already sewn up the #1 pick in next spring's Draft. Were they in a position where a win might hurt them (i.e. draft position), the tendency would be to lay off. But expect the Bengals to come out motivated for Week 17 against division rival Cleveland in what looks like a very winnable game. Meanwhile, the underachieving Browns may very well mail this one in. Take the points. Cincinnati almost won last week, but came up just short in overtime, losing at Miami 38-35. They had an improbable rally just to get to OT, scoring two touchdowns and two 2-pt conversions in the final 30 seconds to tie the game. QB Andy Dalton is still auditioning to be a starting QB for next year (likely somewhere else), so he won't be phoning it in here. Despite coming at 1-14 SU, the Bengals are better than you think as last week was their 8th loss by one score. Back in Week 14, they outgained the Browns by 118 yards (451-333) w/ a 27-17 edge in first downs, but lost 27-19 as Cleveland had an early pick-six. The Browns have been miserable as a favorite this year, a reflection of their disappointing season. They've lost four of the nine games in which they've been favored. Three of those four losses have been on the road. Two of those have been to backup quarterbacks and the other was by two scores at Arizona two weeks ago. Freddie Kitchens is in way over his head as a NFL head coach and was yet another poor hire by the Browns. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
12-29-19 | Saints v. Panthers +14 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): New Orleans appears to be "peaking" at the right time as they've won five of their last six games to get to 12-3 SU. They still have a chance to earn a first round bye. In addition to obviously needing to win themselves, they would need either a loss by the Packers (unlikely) or by the 49ers. If both the 49ers and Packers were to lose, then the Saints could even move up to the #1 seed in the NFC. But because of these playoff scenarios, this line is inflated. I'm taking the points. The Panthers' season has gone off the rails as they fired Ron Rivera (foolish) a few weeks back. That came after four straight losses and the streak has now hit seven under interim HC Perry Fewell. Last week was a horrific showing in Indianapolis as they lost 38-6 by giving up two special teams touchdowns. They were also -3 in turnovers. This is a different team than the one that should have beaten the Saints in New Orleans back in Week 12 (lost 34-31). Will Grier is now starting at QB as opposed to Kyle Allen. But still, this number is way too large. Interestingly enough, the Saints have lost outright as a division favorite of -6 or more each of the last two years in Week 17. Both losses came with them having clinched a playoff berth. Ironically, last year's loss was to a Carolina team that came in on a seven-game losing streak. While it may seem like the Saints are peaking now, they did trail Tennessee on the road 14-0 last week. Just too many points to lay in a NFL road game. 8* Carolina | |||||||
12-29-19 | Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
8* Over Chargers/Chiefs (1:00 ET): This could be Philip Rivers final game as the QB of the Chargers. If this truly is it, then it comes in a manner all too familiar for him. The Chargers were a talented team this year, but simply failed to "get it done" in the "clutch." Last week's upset loss at home to the Raiders (24-17 as 6.5-pt chalk) dropped them to a mind-numbing 2-9 SU in one score games this season. Despite a 5-10 SU record, the Chargers have both outscored and outgained opponents this year. Whomever is the QB next year, this will be a better team. Kansas City, having dominated the AFC West yet again, is headed to the playoffs. Seeding is still up in the air. They can still earn a first round bye w/ a win and Patriots loss. But seeing as New England is playing Miami at home, it's unlikely that scenario plays out. Still, the Chiefs do need to win here to avoid to falling to the #4 seed, which would happen if the Texans won and they lost. The Texans don't play until 4:00 ET, so KC won't know what that result is while this game is ongoing. So expect a strong start by the offense to try and put this one to bed. It's been KC's defense leading the charge in a 5-0 SU/ATS run since the bye week (Under also 5-0). They've given up an average of just 9.6 PPG and allowed only THREE touchdowns. The streak started with a 24-17 win over these Chargers, but the total for that game was much higher (51.5). We know what the Chiefs' offense is capable of, but the Chargers come in averaging a respectable 367.5 yards per game. They are capable of putting 20+ on the board, which would make this an easy Over. 8* Over Chargers/Chiefs | |||||||
12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 3 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): One bad first half (Big 10 Champ Game vs. Wisconsin) and it seems as if everyone is flocking to get off the Ohio State bandwagon. That has me scratching my head as the Buckeyes were the best team in the country during the regular season, covering the spread by an average of 11.8 PPG, the highest mark of any team. I did NOT agree with the Buckeyes being moved down from #1 to #2 in the final CFP Rankings and think they now offer a tremendous value as an underdog (1st time all season) going for revenge against the team that embarrassed them in their last CFP appearance. Take the points. Now Clemson is not without its own merits. They are the defending National Champions and come in with the best ATS record in the country at 10-3 (covered 4 in a row). But it's difficult (for me) to look past the massive difference in strength of schedule that exists between them and Ohio State. The ACC was easily the weakest of the Power 5 conferences this year as no other team finished inside the top 40 of my own personal power rankings! The only Top 40 team Clemson faced was Texas A&M and that was early in the year at home. While the Tigers appeared to peak down the stretch, they were going up against some really depleted and overmatched opponents. You can go ahead and throw out that 1H Ohio State played vs. Wisconsin. It was a really tough spot for the Buckeyes as they went into the game not even needing to win to make the playoff. The fact they still ended up winning by double digits is quite impressive. Nine of Ohio State's wins this year came against teams that are currently in my Top 40 and remember they won every game by double digits. Compare that to the one Top 40 win Clemson has. Once I saw the Buckeyes open as the underdog, I knew this had to be my top bowl selection. The only time they have been a dog since 2014 was LY's game vs. Michigan, which they ended up winning 62-39. The program has won outright the L7 times its been a dog! 10* Ohio State | |||||||
12-28-19 | Iowa State v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 97 h 40 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I get the sense coming out of South Bend that the Fighting Irish faithful view the 2019 season, Brian Kelly's 10th leading the program, as a step back. I suppose that makes sense. Notre Dame was in the CFP last year, though that certainly didn't end well. But the Irish did go 10-2 SU this year. One of those losses was to Georgia and they covered the spread. The other was to Michigan, which was NOT a good performance, but that game was also played in a driving rainstorm. Since going down to the Wolverines, ND has won five in a row and is 4-1 ATS. Iowa State is looking to finish 8-5 SU for a third straight year under HC Matt Campbell. Four of their five losses this year were by a TD or less. They did spend a good part of the season in the Top 25, but also lost three of their last five games to fall out of the rankings. Ranked opponents were generally the ones that gave the Cyclones trouble as they lost 2 of 3 such games and that doesn't even include a loss to Baylor, who was not ranked at the time. The one win over a ranked opponent was Texas, who did not finish the year in the Top 25. Notre Dame is #15, which is where they should be. Interesting is that both of the Fighting Irish's losses came as dogs. They were a perfect 10-0 SU as favorites, covering the spread in all but three of those games. While ISU's record as a dog (14-4 ATS w/ six outright wins L3 yrs) must be respected, I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Because they've struggled in bowls recently, I expect Notre Dame to come out motivated for this one. 8* Notre Dame | |||||||
12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa UNDER 52 | Top | 24-49 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 44 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
12-27-19 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (3:20 ET): There's no denying that Michigan State underachieved this year. That can be quickly confirmed by their 3-9 ATS record. But I'm still surprised to see Sparty laying such a short number in this year's Pinstripe Bowl to a clearly inferior Wake Forest side. I still consider Mark Dantonio's team to be a top 30 team (in the country) despite its pedestrian 6-6 SU mark. There are issues offensively, but the same can be said for their opponent, who is dealing with uncertainty at QB and a depleted receiving corps. I'm going to lay the short number here. Wake Forest has won and covered three straight bowl games under HC Dave Clawson. But there is some uncertainty over who will be starting at QB in the Pinstripe Bowl after Jamie Newman got hurt in the final regular season game. If Newman can't go, it will be Sam Hartman under center. Regardless if it's Newman or Hartman, the Wake Forest receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries this year. All the injuries resulted in the Demon Deacons losing three of their last four games. They haven't won a game outside of Winston-Salem since beating Boston College 27-24 in the final weekend of September. Their only other road win was against Rice. The Pinstripe Bowl is unique in that it is played in cold weather (NYC). Sure enough, that's led to the Big 10 (more accustomed to the cold) going 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC in the bowl's short history, the only loss coming in overtime. The Big 10 is clearly better than the ACC this year. While their offense struggles, the Spartans have a massive defensive edge here as WF gives up nearly 35 PPG away from home. Being in a bowl was clearly important for MSU as they won their final two regular season games to get here. Sparty is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. WF is 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS as an underdog in the same price range. 8* Michigan State | |||||||
12-26-19 | Miami-FL -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 12 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (4:00 ET): Miami does not have a good recent history in bowl games. They've gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine, including last year's complete "no-show" vs. Wisconsin (lost 35-3). This year, "The U" heads to Shreveport, LA for what will be a de facto road game against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. Despite that history of failing to "get up" for bowl games, I am shocked to see how this number has been bet down so much. The Hurricanes are simply more talented than their opponent, which played the weakest schedule in all of the FBS. Yes, some players have elected to sit this one out for Miami (preparing for NFL Draft), but I believe the holdovers will indeed "show up" Thursday afternoon. Lay the points. I thought Miami would contend for the ACC's Coastal Division title. Interestingly enough, they did defeat division champ Virginia 17-9 in a game they were favored to win! They also easily could have beaten the team favored to win this year's Orange Bowl, that being #9 Florida, but blew a 4Q lead in that one (season opener). Three terrible outright losses down to the stretch (Ga Tech, FIU, Duke) definitely took the shine off Manny Diaz's team. But they still have a tremendous defense that ranked 13th in the country in yards allowed (307.6 per game). Louisiana Tech simply did not face a team this talented all year w/ the possible exception of Texas, who crushed them by 31 points. La Tech's recent bowl history is good as they have won five straight. But the Bulldogs also have to shake off some disappointment from the way they ended the regular season. QB J'Mar Smith was among the key suspensions down the stretch that cost this team the chance to play in the C-USA Title Game. The suspended players are all back, but it's difficult to look past the fact that La Tech is just 2-3 SU vs. bowl teams w/ those wins coming over FIU and Southern Miss. Also, the defense is going to be without its top cornerback as he's sitting out for the Draft. I think the Bulldogs' offense is going to struggle against this Miami defense and the undervalued favorite (which should be laying double digits) is going to come through 8* Miami FL | |||||||
12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Green Bay may very well end up winning this division, but in the opinion of myself and many others, Minnesota is the best team in the NFC North. The Vikings have a top four point differential in the league entering Week 16 (+119), more than double that of the Packers (+47). In the first head to head meeting (back in Week 2), which was at Lambeau Field, Green Bay did win 21-16. But the Vikings outgained them 7.0 to 4.9 on a per play basis, a huge margin for any game, let alone for the loser. At home (where they're a perfect 6-0 SU), look for the Vikings to get their revenge Monday night. Green Bay winning that first meeting in spite of the yard per play differential is somewhat emblematic of the kind of "fluky" season that they are having. Despite being 11-3, they've been outgained on both a per game and per play basis. That's very rare. They are also a very fortunate 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or less. That YTD point differential is not what you'd expect from an 11-3 team. There have been a number of games throughout the year where the Packers probably did not "deserve" to win, but did. One of them was a Monday night game at Detroit where they trailed nearly the entire game but won 23-22. The Vikings are the league's only undefeated team at home. They aren't just winning these home games either; they're blowing teams out by an average margin of 13.5 PPG. Now a lot will be made of Kirk Cousins' 0-8 ATS record on MNF and the fact he'll be without RB Dalvin Cook here. But Green Bay is just 2-6 ATS its last eight appearances on MNF. Cousins is also 13-3 ATS as a single digit favorite, including 8-1 ATS at home, since joining the Vikings. Green Bay has not won here at U.S. Bank Stadium since it opened in 2016. Bottom line is the Vikings are the better team here. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +7 | Top | 26-3 | Loss | -133 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears saw their already slim playoff hopes dashed last week and to make matters worse it came at the hands of old nemesis Aaron Rodgers. At the start of the season, I called the Bears a prime candidate to regress and regress they have as they've dropped from 12 to 7 wins (w/ two games still to play). But in spite of said regression, not everything is bad in the Windy City. They've got a defense that's still giving up only 18.1 PPG. While they may have lost 21-13 to the Packers last week, the Bears actually finished with a 415-292 edge in total yards and had eight more first downs. It was a -3 turnover margin that bit them in the end. Kansas City has won the AFC West again and is just looking to improve its playoff position these last two weeks. As a division champ, they could still finish anywhere from the #1 to #4 seed. A first round bye, which the top two seeds get, is looking less likely after New England's win Saturday. But still this is a team that obviously must be respected as they come in riding a four-game win streak, during which they've even played some defense! The last four opponents have scored a combined 45 points, a big reason why the Chiefs are also 4-0 ATS during that stretch. In taking the points here, there obviously is a bit of concern over whether or not the Bears' offense will be able to "keep up" with the Chiefs. But I expect QB Mitchell Trubisky, who was infamously drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes (and DeShaun Watson), to come out motivated for the final home game. Trubisky has played better down the stretch and even owns the NFL's longest active streak of five games without an interception. He's also 7-2 ATS in his career in primetime games. Don't discount the ability of the Bears' defense to keep KC's offense in check either. Then there's the homefield advantage as the L3 seasons have seen Chicago go 15-8 ATS at Soldier Field, including 6-1-1 ATS when getting points. This spread was bet up and is now simply too high, having hit a key number. 8* Chicago | |||||||
12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 65 h 27 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): Looking at the AFC West standings, something immediately jumps out to me. No, I'm not talking about the fact that the Chiefs have already clinched another division title. It's the fact that the Raiders, with a -112 YTD point differential, are somehow still in second place. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in last place despite having actually outscored opponents this season. LA can at least pull even with Oakland in the standings (were they to win this week), and I think they will. I'll lay the points as the Chargers are clearly the superior team here despite having one less win coming in. Last week's game was all too emblematic of the kind of season the Chargers are having. They basically had the same number of total yards as the Vikings (345-344). But SEVEN turnovers resulted in a 39-10 loss. Another game worth pointing to is what happened the first time they faced the Raiders. That game, which took place on a Thursday night, saw LA lose the turnover battle 3-0. They outgained the Raiders and had eight more first downs. But if you can't protect the football, you're not going to win in this league. Still, last week was the first time all year that the Chargers lost a game by more than a touchdown. Oakland was once 6-4 and getting talked up as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since that time, the Silver and Black have gotten badly exposed, losing four straight. Three of those losses were by a combined 83 points. Then came last week's gag job vs. Jacksonville, the final game they'll ever play in Oakland. I was on the Jaguars, noting the Raiders' poor point differential, which by the way now is 4th worst in the league. This is a really bad team as five of their eight losses have been by at least 18 points. 10* LA Chargers | |||||||
12-22-19 | Steelers v. Jets OVER 37 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -105 | 62 h 4 m | Show |
10* Over Steelers/Jets (1:00 ET): Obviously, you shouldn't expect this game to turn into any kind of shootout. But the total is too low in my opinion and I'll be playing the Over. Yes, that attempt failed in the Steelers' game last week against the Bills. But it certainly had its chances to go Over. Pittsburgh QB Devlin Hodges had two chances to tie the game, but threw interceptions in the end zone both times. Had he directed a game-tying drive, then the game would have gone to overtime (duh!) and then gone Over had either team simply kicked a field goal. This time, the Under streak for Pittsburgh (currently six games) ends. The Jets, save for the disastrous effort a few weeks back at Cincinnati, have been a decent offensive team as long as Sam Darnold is in at QB. They've scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games. Remember, I had a big Over play with them when they faced a Redskins team that was on an Under streak similar to the one the Steelers find themselves on now. The Jets giving up 42 points last week can probably be chalked up to "facing the Ravens," but I still think it's a better matchup for Pittsburgh than it was vs. Buffalo last week. The 10 points Pittsburgh scored last week marked their third fewest in a game all season. The Over is 5-2 when they are coming off a game where they scored 15 pts or less Hodges definitely did struggle, but it'll be easier for him if Ju-Ju Smith Schuster returns to the lineup this week. Schuster has been M.I.A. since the first Browns game, but was a full participant in practice Thursday. A notable name ON the injury list for the Steelers was CB Joe Haden, which would obviously hamper the secondary. The Jets are 6-1 Over following an ATS loss. 10* Over Steelers/Jets | |||||||
12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Saturday's win by the Texans officially ended the Titans' hopes of winning the division (AFC South). Losing here at home to the Texans last week really stung, but Tennessee can still make the playoffs as a Wild Card. It's down to them or Pittsburgh. Let us not forget that last week was just the second time the Titans lost since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for the ineffective Marcus Mariota (6-2 SU). My power rankings say they should be favored in this spot and under HC Mike Vrabel, the team is 4-2 ATS as a home dog w/ four outright wins. New Orleans is off a very impressive performance on Monday Night Football. They throttled the Colts 34-7 to clinch their own division. Drew Brees set two NFL records in the win, one for single-game completion percentage (29 for 30, 96.7%) and he also became the NFL's all-time leader in TD passes. Coming off high-profile win like that, it's no wonder the public loves Brees and the Saints here, but it's a short week and now they are on the road (outdoors too). The Titans' defense (19.9 PPG allowed) is a lot better than the Colts, so look for Brees to be far less comfortable this week. I was skeptical at first, but Tannehill has done a great job as the starter for Tennessee, leading the league in yards per pass attempt (9.5). Reports on the status of RB Henry are conflicting, but the Saints have given up an average of 28.2 points in four games vs. top 8 rushing offenses (Titans are 8th in rushing). A change at kicker will be a positive as the Titans are last in the league in field goals made. Tennessee easily could have scored more last week as they gained 6.4 yards per play. But they had a FG blocked and Tannehill threw an INT near the goal line. 8* Tennessee | |||||||
12-21-19 | SMU v. Florida Atlantic +3.5 | Top | 28-52 | Win | 100 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
***Note: This analysis was written prior to the announcement that several FAU players would be suspended. But I am still recommending a play on FAU at the current number!*** 10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): The Boca Raton Bowl is a home game for FAU, who won this very bowl game 50-3 (over Akron) two years ago to cap an incredible first season under Lane Kiffin. Ironically, this same bowl is where the next chapter of FAU football will begin as Kiffin has moved on to Ole Miss and won't be coaching Saturday. Kiffin departs having gone 26-13 SU in his three seasons in Boca Raton, twice winning 10+ games and a C-USA Championship. Willie Taggart, fresh off failing over at Florida State, will be Kiffin's replacement. But DC Glenn Spencer will serve as the interim for the bowl. SMU was shaping up to be a really nice story, starting 8-0 for the first time since 1982 (program's heyday, pre "Death Penalty") and there was talk that Sonny Dykes' team would be making it to the Cotton Bowl, which would have been one heck of a story. But the Mustangs dropped two of their final four regular season games and were pretty much an afterthought in the AAC race going into the final weekend. That shouldn't take away from what the team has accomplished in two years under Dykes, but the only bowl teams it beat were Arkansas State, Temple and Tulane. Were it not for Kiffin leaving, you'd have to think FAU would be the favorite here. A coach leaving is obviously a very big deal, but this is still a home game for the Owls, who have won six in a row. There were no signs of "packing it in" in the C-USA Title Game when they dismantled UAB 49-6 on this field. I was 3-0 ATS taking FAU this year, including that C-USA Title Game. They are +14.5 PPG at home and it should be pointed out that since opening 0-2 (lost to UCF and Ohio St!), the Owls are 10-1 SU and have scored 31 or more pts in every game but one! They aren't as strong as the team that covered this game as a 22-point favorite two years ago. But they shouldn't be getting points either. 10* Florida Atlantic | |||||||
12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State OVER 41 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 95 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State (2:00 ET): The New Mexico Bowl pits Central Michigan of the MAC against San Diego State of the Mountain West. Both teams saw their respective regular seasons end in disappointment. Central Michigan lost outright (to Miami) as a favorite in the MAC Championship Game while San Diego State lost a de facto division title game to Hawaii, which would have given it the right to play for its own conference title. The Aztecs did bounce back to defeat BYU 13-3 in the regular season finale, so unlike CMU they are off a win. San Diego State was the #1 under team during the regular season with an O/U mark of 1-11. Their last six games have all stayed Under and have been incredibly low-scoring by modern college football standards. This is a team that averages just 19.0 PPG, which falls in the bottom 12 of all of FBS and is the lowest average among bowl teams. To help counteract that, the Aztecs defense allows only 12.8 PPG, which ranks 4th in the FBS. The only teams to allow fewer are: Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State. But the big key here for the Aztecs is that QB Ryan Agnew will be back in the lineup after he missed the BYU game. While San Diego State certainly has the profile to match its O/U results, this is a bowl game and often times that means you don't get the same kind of defensive intensity. It's also an early start time for SDSU, so don't be surprised if the defense is a bit "sleepy" to start. Central Michigan averages 31.9 PPG and had scored 38+ in six of seven before losing the MAC Champ Game. At the same time, the Chippewas defense isn't good outside of Mt Pleasant as they allow 34.6 PPG on the road. SDSU HC Rocky Long knows CMU HC Jim McElwain well from the time the former spent at Colorado State. McElwain has done a great job in his first year here (CMU was 1-11 LY) and you can look for it to end w/ an Over. 10* Over Central Michigan/San Diego State | |||||||
12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Houston took a big step towards winning its second straight AFC South title Sunday by beating Tennessee 24-21 as a three-point underdog. However, they were outgained in the contest (432-374) and gave up 6.4 yards per play. I had to sweat out an Under, which was my 10* Total of the Year. The fact is I was lucky to win it as the Texans defense forced only three punts (just 1 in the second half) as it predictably is not the same since JJ Watt went down with a pec injury. I believe an explosive Bucs offense is going to be able to have its way in this one. Credit the job HC Bruce Arians is doing in his first season in Tampa Bay. When this team was 3-7 SU, they easily could have rolled over and "packed it in" for the season. Instead, the Bucs have won four in a row for the first time since 2016. While they haven't beaten anyone the caliber of Houston during this stretch, the Bucs have beaten two other AFC South teams - Indianapolis & Jacksonville. Despite QB Jameis Winston's propensity for turning the ball over, he is leading an attack that has scored 38 pts B2B weeks. Winston has thrown for 467 and 446 yards in those games. It was a mistake I made going against the Bucs last week as they easily beat the undermanned Lions 38-17. But I didn't like them laying points on the road. Now they are a home dog in a situation where my own power ratings say they should be a slight favorite! The Texans are 1-5 ATS as favorites this season. You might be shocked to learn that the Bucs have the league's 13th best point differential (+18), which is just ahead of the division leading Texans. Houston can clinch the AFC South this week w/ a win here, but w/ a rematch against Tennessee set to take place next week, doesn't it seem almost "preordained" that that game would decide the division? 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
12-20-19 | Buffalo v. Charlotte UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 71 h 10 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under Colts/Saints (8:15 ET): While New Orleans is 10-3, I've been pretty consistent this year in labeling them as a team that has been both "lucky" and "good." They've gone 7-1 SU in games decided by eight points or fewer, that lone loss coming last week to San Francisco by a score of 48-46. While it is tough to imagine the Saints dropping two straight at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, I'm not going to lay this many points w/ a team that has only three double digits wins this season, only one of those coming at home. Indianapolis, fighting for its playoff life, isn't about to simply "roll over" either. The Colts know a thing or two about close games. All but two of their games this season have been decided by seven points or less. One was a win, 33-13 vs. Jacksonville, and the other was a loss (31-17 vs. Tennessee). The only reason they lost that game to the Titans by more than a touchdown was an Adam Vinateri FG getting blocked and returned for a TD. With both teams coming off very high scoring losses (Colts lost 38-35 at TB), it's no wonder that the O/U has been bet up for Monday night. However, this Colts' offense hasn't performed up to par for three straight games now. The defense had a TD last week, something they can't continue to count on. WR TY Hilton remained limited in practice this week and will be a game-time decision. The offense just hasn't been the same without him. This could close as the 2nd highest O/U line of the year for the Colts despite them not having Hilton. 10* Under Colts/Saints | |||||||
12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers OVER 35.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -108 | 77 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Bills/Steelers (8:20 ET): This game was "flexed" into the Sunday Night spot because - as of right now - these would be your two Wild Card teams in the AFC. Buffalo is 9-4, though coming off a 24-17 home loss to Baltimore. Pittsburgh has improbably continued to win and now is 8-5 following a 23-17 win over Arizona last week. Both teams are known more for their defenses, which is why we've got such a low total here. In addition, the last five Steelers games have all stayed Under (and last 3 for the Bills). But I look for this one to end that streak as it won't take much scoring. The Bills at one point had gone Under five straight times this season. It was back in the first five weeks of the season. I took them Over the following week, despite facing the lowest scoring team in the league (Miami) and sure enough the game went Over. You just don't see many teams go Over or Under more than five consecutive times. Even with the low amount of scoring in games involving these teams, the average number of total PPG for both just exceeds the current O/U line. Bills games average 37.4 PPG this year. Steelers games average 38.4. All we are asking for here is an "average" game. Devlin "Duck" Hodges is the latest player to step up for a Steelers offense that has been hit extremely hard by injuries. The offense has operated more efficiently w/ him than it did when Mason Rudolph was under center. In the three games Hodges has started this year, Pittsburgh has scored 24, 23 and 20 points. They should find success running the ball here as that's the weakness of the Bills' defense. QB Josh Allen played a terrible game last week against Baltimore, but should have a bounce back game here. The Over is 13-4 the L17 games where the Steelers were a home favorite. 10* Over Bills/Steelers | |||||||
12-15-19 | Jaguars +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): Well, we're going with some real "beauties" in this 3-pack, no? This Jags-Raiders game is as ugly as any on the slate not named "Dolphins @ Giants." While Oakland would seem to be a respectable team because of its 6-7 SU record, they have lost three straight games - all by 21 points or more. They've failed to cover four in a row. There may not be a team w/ a more misleading record in the league right now as the Silver and Black have a YTD point differential of -108, just seven points better than the 2-11 Giants. The Raiders should not be laying a touchdown to anybody right now. Not to be outdone, Jacksonville is on a five-game losing streak - SU and ATS - and all five losses have been by at least 17 points. It hasn't mattered whether it's been Gardner Minshew II or Nick Foles in at QB, the results have not been pretty. Last week the Jags got thoroughly outclassed at home by the Chargers, losing 45-10 in a game where they were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin. Still it's interesting to see how the market has shifted against Jacksonville for this one. It was never more than a 4.5-point underdog in any of those L5 games. This is likely to be the final game the Raiders ever play in Oakland. They are scheduled to move to Las Vegas for the 2020 season. While I'm sure there will be some emotion in the "Black Hole," that still doesn't justify the Raiders laying more than 3.5 points for just the second time all season. The first was here at home vs. Cincinnati (were -12.5) and they only won that game 17-10. They haven't won since. Oakland has gone off as the favorite in only three games all season! I see Jacksonville playing better than usual this week as these are two teams I have rated very evenly. 8* Jacksonville | |||||||
12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans UNDER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Texans/Titans (1:00 ET): While there's far more on the line here than just Tennessee's 7-game Over streak (like first place in the AFC South), that's what will be our focus here as it's time for my biggest NFL O/U release of the season! The key to the Titants getting hot has been Ryan Tannehill of all people. Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has led the team to a 6-1 SU record (5-1-1 ATS), which now has them in a first place tie w/ the Texans. During the 6-1 streak, Tennessee has averaged 31.4 PPG. The only QB w/ a better passer rating - or WL record - than Tannehill over the L7 wks is Lamar Jackson. Tannehill becoming the Titans' starting QB also directly coincides w/ the team's 7-0 Over streak. Now they get set to for the first of two games w/ the Texans, who were just bushwhacked by Denver last week. Houston trailed 38-3 after the first drive of the second half and needed some garbage time scores from DeShaun Watson just to make things look reasonable (ended up losing 38-24). Making that result all the more head-scratching is the fact the Texans had just beaten the Patriots the previous week. I know there's been some concerns about the defense ever since JJ Watt went down, but Romeo Crenell's group should be playing better than it has. While Tannehill deserves most of the credit for Tennessee catching fire, his defense and special teams have both regularly contributed to the scoring as well. There's been a non-offensive TD each of the L2 wks for the Titans. Plus, they are getting a ridiculous number of "big" plays (65+ yd TDs) as well. Eventually, that's going to dry up. They have not scored more than 24 points against Houston since 2010! As for the Titans' defense, it has allowed more than 23 pts in only two games this season. This is the Under we are looking for. 10* Under Texans/Titans | |||||||
12-15-19 | Bucs v. Lions +4 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions' season has taken a drastic downturn with six straight losses. They've lost 9 of 10 since a 2-0-1 start and what makes that all the more frustrating is they've been in a majority of these games. Last week's 20-7 loss to the Vikings was the first game all season in which the Lions never led. Incredibly, they have led or at least been tied in the 4th quarter in all but three games (two vs. Minnesota, one vs. Dallas). Injuries have certainly taken a toll, but I still don't believe they should be getting more than a field goal this week at home vs. the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has fought its way back to 6-7 SU by winning three in row. They probably deserved a better fate than pushing as three-point favorites in 38-35 win last week over Indianapolis, considering they outgained the Colts 542-309. But because they turned the ball over four times (three interceptions by Jameis Winston), they actually needed to come back from a two touchdown deficit. Winston is now dealing w/ a thumb injury, which won't help his ball security issues. Note Tampa Bay has not won four in a row since 2016. This is the most points they've had to lay in any road game since the 2013 season opener (which they lost outright to the Jets). My own power rankings have this spread as a pick 'em. Yes, I am aware that Detroit has managed all of 17 points in the last seven quarters w/ third stringer David Blough at QB. But that doesn't change the fact TB shouldn't be laying this many points. Like the Lions, the Bucs have experienced a six-game ATS losing streak this year. They have only four wins by more than a field goal. The injured Winston won't have Mike Evans to throw to either as the Bucs top WR may be done for the season. Detroit's secondary only has five interceptions all season, but they could easily double that number here. 8* Detroit. | |||||||
12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers +7 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): When talking about teams whose season went south in a hurry, few can compare to the Panthers, who shockingly fired HC Ron Rivera two weeks ago. The coaching change failed to turn the tide last week in Atlanta where the Panthers lost 40-20 as 3.5-point underdogs. They've now lost five in a row - by an average of 13 points per game. But both blowouts came against Atlanta. The other three losses have all been one-score games as have been five of the team's eight total losses this season. In the first home game under interim HC Perry Fewell, I am expecting an inspired effort. Seattle has had just the opposite luck as Carolina this season. They entered last week's game w/ the Rams at 10-2 w/ a YTD point differential of +36. No team in NFL history had ever won 10 of its first 12 games w/ a point differential that small. Sure enough, we faded them out in LA last week and they were beaten 28-12, further exposing that point differential. I've said it before and I'll say it again here. The Seahawks have been more lucky than good this season by going a ridiculously fortunate 9-2 SU in one-score games. Their ONLY win that came by more than eight points was Week 4 at Arizona. I know the bloom is off the "Kyle Allen rose" and that the Panthers defense has had some real difficulties stopping teams of late. But, with "the world" figuring to be on Seattle this week, this is a great chance to step in and "buy low" on the home dog. This is a spread that should be no larger than a field goal. Seattle's rushing attack took a hit w/ Rashaad Penny tearing his ACL last week. The Panthers have also been unfortunate to be -12 in turnover margin during their 5-game losing streak. They get these issues correct this week and at least cover against a Seattle team that isn't as good as its record. This will be the Seahawks' FIFTH trip to the Eastern Time Zone. 8* Carolina | |||||||
12-12-19 | Jets +17.5 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): With three games left in the season, the Jets have already improved on last year's season-win total. This despite a 1-7 SU start w/ QB Darnold missing time due to mono. The Jets were a team that I predicted would improve upon LY's win total. Granted, I thought they'd win have more wins than five at this point and maybe they would had Darnold not missed those three games (all losses). Certainly no one is expecting the Flyboys to win Thursday as they visit Baltimore to face the 11-2 Ravens. But I do think they can stay within the number. Take the points. The Ravens emerging as the NFL's best team is NOT something I saw coming. But here we are and they have the best record, best point differential and highest scoring offense. They are 3-0 SU against the league's other 10+ win teams. But the last two games have seen John Harbaugh's team cut it a little close as they needed a last second FG to get by the 49ers here at home, then last week it was just a 7-point win at Buffalo. But the biggest concern right now is the health of QB Lamar Jackson, who is listed as questionable for this game due to a quad injury. He announced Wednesday that he would play, but the short week does him no favors. Another reason to be concerned about Jackson this week is that his left tackle Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. The Ravens have only been double digit favorites three times and failed to cover twice. The Jets have won four of their last five and with the exception of that ugly loss in Cincinnati, they haven't been beaten by more than 14 pts since the MNF disaster vs. the Patriots. Note the Jets defense leads the league in yards per carry allowed (3.03) which is huge when facing the Ravens. This play stands regardless if Jackson plays or not. 10* NY Jets | |||||||
12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): The line move here is certainly interesting as it would seem to support my own previously stated skepticism of Seattle. The Seahawks moved up to the #1 spot in the NFC w/ Monday's 37-30 win over Minnesota. They are now 10-2 SU, but that record comes with a bit of an asterisk as they are 9-1 in one-score games. That's an awful lot of good luck as there are four NFC teams (including 6-7 Dallas) that have better YTD point differentials. Bottom line is Seattle is "due" to drop one and we don't see them sweeping the season series from the Rams, who have revenge for a 30-29 loss back in Week 5, which was also in primetime. The season appeared to be getting away from the Rams when they were blown out 45-6 by Baltimore in their own Monday night appearance. But they bounced back last week with one of their most complete efforts of 2019. They beat the Cardinals 34-7 w/ a 549-198 edge in total yards. A defense, which had been badly gashed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, held Arizona to just 3.2 yards per play. I just can't see the Rams losing B2B primetime home games. Nor can I see the Seahawks winning outright for a fourth time on the road as an underdog. From a scheduling perspective, the Rams have the edge as Seattle is working on a short week. For that Week 5 meeting, Seattle was only a 1.5-pt favorite at home. So the oddsmakers have definitely adjusted, but I think they've overreacted. Again, the Seahawks having all these close wins is simply not a sustainable blueprint for success. The Rams were a missed 44-yard FG away from taking that first meeting. They finished w/ slightly more total yards. A big difference between then and now is you can expect a bigger workload from RB Todd Gurley. The Rams defense has allowed 17 pts or less in five of the last six games, the loss to Baltimore two weeks ago being the only exception. 10* LA Rams | |||||||
12-08-19 | Titans v. Raiders UNDER 48 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Titans/Raiders (4:25 ET): Since taking over for the ineffective Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill has led the Titans to a 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) record and an average of almost 30 PPG. But before we go crediting this journeyman too much, let's note Tennessee's scoring average has not been all the offense's doing. Special teams and defense have both contributed to the scoring as well and that's something you cannot count on every game. Facing a Raiders team that has scored a grand total of 29 points its last three games, look for the Titans' 6-0 Over streak to end Sunday. So like I said, Tannehill has certainly had ample assistance since becoming the Titans' starting QB. Five weeks ago vs. Tampa Bay, the offense had two TD drives that started inside the opponents' 10-yard line. Three weeks ago, Tennessee had no business beating Kansas City, but got a defensive TD + a FG block that set up the GW score. Against Jacksonville two weeks ago, there was a six play sequence where they scored FOUR touchdowns, which is an insane occurrence. Last week's game vs. Indianapolis was tied 17-17 going into the final five minutes, but the Titans returned a blocked FG for a TD, then sent the game Over w/ a TD off a Colts turnover. The offense gained less than 300 total yards in the 31-17 victory. Oakland has barely done any scoring of late. They rank last in the league the L3 weeks in points per drive at 0.85. This just doesn't seem like the time or place for Derek Carr and company to get back on track as they are facing the league's 7th best scoring defense (19.5 PPG allowed). Tennessee has held nine of its 12 opponents to 20 points or less this season. RB Josh Jacobs just recently revealed he's been playing with a fractured shoulder, so expect him to be less effective moving forward, especially with the right side of the Raiders' offensive line also banged up. 10* Under Titans/Raiders | |||||||
12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Baltimore has established itself as the best team in the league in many people's eyes, including my own. However, there comes a time when the pointspread eventually catches up w/ you and for the Ravens, it was last week when they failed to cover in a 20-17 win over the 49ers. That snapped a 5-game ATS win streak, but didn't stop oddsmakers from asking them to lay a pretty big number on the road this week to a good Buffalo team. My own power rankings say this spread should be closer to a "pick 'em," so there's plenty of value on the dog. I took the Bills on Thanksgiving as they upset the Cowboys, 26-15 as a six-point road dog. In my analysis for that game, I talked about how many continue to hold Buffalo's weak scheduled against them. But the bottom line is that this team now has a top 6 point differential (+69). The defense is allowing just 15.7 PPG, fewer than Baltimore and third best in the entire league. Only once this season have the Bills allowed more than 21 pts in a game. This is a team uniquely suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. The Bills are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, winning three of those games outright. Baltimore was held to just 283 total yards last week by San Francisco and outgained substantially on a per play basis. While much will be made of the Bills defense's susceptibility to the run, they've only allowed 211 yards rushing (total!) the L3 weeks. Some of that can be attributed to being ahead and forcing the opponent to pass, but even the Cowboys' ground game could only muster 103 yards against them. Having a few extra days to prepare is also huge for this Bills defense. 8* Buffalo | |||||||
12-08-19 | Colts v. Bucs -3 | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs have finally "woken up" and started to play better. They've won B2B games by double digits, beating the Falcons and Jaguars, both on the road. Now they try for that elusive cover at home. Prior to winning each of the L2 weeks, TB had failed to cover seven straight games. But as noted when I made them a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release two weeks ago, there's plenty of talent here and the team would have a better overall record had it not shot themselves in the foot on a regular basis. I think they'll continue their strong play at home this week. Lay the short number. Speaking of shooting itself in the foot, the Colts really let one get away last week vs. Tennessee. An Adam Vinateri FG attempt was blocked and returned for the game-winning TD. It was the Colts' fourth loss in the last five games. Vinateri won't play this week, which is probably for the best as he's been downright awful. But WR T.Y. Hilton's absence looms large. The team is 1-4 ATS w/o him as opposed to 6-1-1 ATS when he suits up. This Colts' offense hasn't done much in the way of scoring the L2 games, scoring 17 pts each time in defeat. Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS at home this year. They are the only team in the league yet to cover a game at home. Note those records include a "home game" in London. The Bucs have performed better on a per play basis this year than have the Colts. They do deserve to be the favorite here as Colts HC Frank Reich is just 3-8-1 ATS against teams w/ losing records. Against non-division foes this year, the Colts are just 2-5 SU. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
12-07-19 | Virginia +28.5 v. Clemson | Top | 17-62 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 28 m | Show |
8* Virginia (7:30 ET): After what they did for me last week, how could I not come back with the Hoos here? As my *10* College Football Game of the Year last Friday, they ended what had been a 15-year losing streak to rival Va Tech w/ an outright 39-30 win as 2.5-point dogs. Thus all seven teams in the ACC Coastal have now won the division in the last 7 years. Hopefully, Virginia is not just "happy to be here" as defending Nat'l Champ Clemson awaits them in the Conference Championship Game. I'm willing to bank on that NOT being the case and will grab a HUGE number. Anyone who follows my plays knows I have no loyalty to any team. This play is clearly more about the number than what Virginia did last week. It's actually the second year in a row Clemson comes into the ACC Title Game as a four-TD favorite. They covered last year, beating Pitt 42-10, but that was an inferior foe to what they'll be facing here. Yes, the #3 ranked Tigers have destroyed everything in their path the last two months, winning seven straight by an average of more than 41 PPG. Their only ATS loss during that stretch was to FCS Wofford as they were laying 49 in a 45-point win. But Virginia is the strongest team Clemson will have faced these L2 months. It has not always been pretty for Virginia, but they've averaged over 41 PPG during a current four-game win streak. Their largest loss (in terms of margin) this season was 15 to Notre Dame and that was a game that they actually led at the half. They still ended up outgaining the Fighting Irish, but could not overcome five turnovers, one of which was a fumble returned for a touchdown. The other two Cavaliers' losses were by 7 and 9 points. As we saw last week, QB Bryce Perkins is a playmaker. Clemson doesn't need "style points" here. They just need to win. Look for the dog to stay within the number. 8* Virginia | |||||||
12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
10* Georgia (4:00 ET): What separates this game from the two other Conference Championship Games involving unbeaten teams (Big 10, ACC) is that the underdog also happens to be playing for a chance to make the College Football playoff. #4 Georgia will be in the CFP w/ a win Saturday over LSU. While that's "easier said than done," I don't think the gap between these two SEC schools is as large as the oddsmakers seem to believe. I've got the line closer to a field goal than a touchdown and that's some pretty substantial value on a side that has everything to gain. Take the points. Georgia's only loss this year was in double overtime to South Carolina. You may recall that I was on the right side of that one. However, let it be noted that the Bulldogs were -4 in turnovers in that game, negating a rather huge 468-297 edge in total yardage. So they easily could be undefeated coming into this game, just like LSU. Were that the case, this line would be a whole lot shorter. The Bulldogs' defense has a claim to be the best in the country as it gives up only 10.3 PPG (2nd best behind Clemson). It's a better defense than Alabama and the best LSU will have faced all year. Offensively, UGA is going to have to run the ball effectively here. They should considering LSU has allowed running backs to average more than 6.0 YPC the L5 games. There's no denying how good LSU is, but I just don't think they are a full TD better than Georgia on a neutral field. Obviously, it's pretty rare for Georgia to be an underdog. They are 3-0 ATS in that role under HC Kirby Smart. Remember that LSU's only two "comparable" opponents would be Bama and Auburn and the Tigers only won those games by a combined eight points. This is Georgia's third straight year playing for the SEC Title, which is a bit of an advantage as well. They also have big time revenge for an ugly 36-13 loss in Baton Rouge last year where they actually came in as a 7-point road favorite. Special teams edge goes to the underdog here as well. 10* Georgia | |||||||
12-07-19 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic -7.5 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 62 h 28 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (1:30 ET): UAB should be commended for a remarkable "rebirth." Three years ago, there wasn't even a football program! But after two years of suspending operations, HC Bill Clark has helped lead one of the great stories in College Football. Over the last three seasons, the Blazers have won 8, 11 and 9 games. This is the second year in a row they are playing for the C-USA Championship. They won it last year, beating Middle Tennessee 27-25 as a 1-pt home dog. But this year they have to travel to face Florida Atlantic, who won this game two years ago. FAU had a down year in 2018, winning only five games. But Lane Kiffin has the Owls right back where they were in 2017. Well, maybe they aren't quite as good as that team, but they have blown through the conference schedule. They are 7-1 SU in C-USA play, outscoring teams by 17.3 points per game. Since losing to Marshall on 10.18, the Owls have won five straight - all by double digits. Twice in the regular season they were a big play for me, once against Charlotte and the other against Western Kentucky. Both times they were drastically undervalued, which is again the case here. While UAB should be lauded for what it has accomplished these last three seasons, the fact is they played arguably the weakest schedule in the entire country this year. They faced only four bowl teams (Western Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern Miss, La Tech) and the only one they beat (La Tech) was dealing w/ a bunch of suspensions. Plus that was the only one of the four games that was at home. In six road games during the regular season, the Blazers averaged only 18.2 PPG. Other than Marshall, FAU's only other losses were to Ohio St and UCF, the first two games of the season. The Owls are again the class of C-USA and will demonstrate that on Saturday. 10* Florida Atlantic | |||||||
12-06-19 | Oregon +7 v. Utah | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 70 h 11 m | Show |
10* Oregon (8:00 ET): Since losing at USC on a Friday night (a result I was on the right side of!), Utah has won eight in a row - both SU and ATS - and only once during that win streak has the final margin been LESS than 25 points. But they've really not had to face many quality opponents either. Only three of the teams they played went on to become bowl eligible and none won more than seven regular season games. The one close game they did play over the L2 months was at Washington where they had to rally for a 33-28 win as three-point chalk. The Utes did not face North Division Champ Oregon in the regular season. Oregon actually wrapped up its division sooner than Utah, despite having the inferior overall record. Maybe that says something about the North, but it actually had more teams finish bowl eligible than the South did. The Ducks' two losses this year have been by a total of nine points and one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) saw them in the lead for 59+ minutes. There is no shame in losing to Auburn nor Arizona State, who got Oregon two weeks ago in what was my Pac 12 Game of the Year. While Utah can lay claim to having beat ASU 21-3, the Ducks can claim to have beaten USC 56-24 and that was on the road. (Utah got ASU at home). Utah lost the Pac 12 Championship Game last year (10-3 to Washington), so that'll serve as extra motivation. Not to mention a win here would place them in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. But you can't discount an Oregon side that has been an underdog just one time this year (the Auburn game) and gives up only 15.8 PPG. The Utes were fortunate to extend their ATS win streak last week as they scored late to cover the 29-point spot against Colorado. Oregon will easily be Utah's toughest opponent to date while the Ducks have the confidence knowing they should have beaten a comparable Auburn team (that just beat Alabama). Take the points. 10* Oregon | |||||||
12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Cowboys/Bears (8:20 ET): Both teams are 6-6 SU, which seems crazy given the negativity surrounding the respective franchises. I faded Dallas on Thanksgiving, citing the rather toxic situation that exists between coach (Jason Garrett) and owner (Jerry Jones) right now. Sure there's plenty of talent on the field. The Cowboys also boast the league's 5th best point differential (+74). But that's largely been undone by the fact they are also 0-4 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less, a stark contrast to last season when they were a league-best 9-2 SU in that situation. Chicago won 12 games last season (and the division), making them one of the favorites in the NFC coming into 2019. QB Mitch Trubisky was even getting consideration as a potential MVP candidate by bettors, which is downright laughable in retrospect. But the Bears have regressed badly, which really isn't all that shocking and it's easy to pinpoint why. The offense, Trubisky in particular, have been BRUTAL. They come in averaging just 17.7 PPG, which is 27th in the league and none of the teams that rank below them have more than four wins. Luckily, they also have a defense that is allowing 17.3 PPG (4th best). The 24 pts scored by the Bears last week in the win over Detroit actually marked a six-week high for them. I had the Over, but the number was really low thanks to the Lions' iffy QB situation. Considering Chicago has scored more than 25 pts only only time all season - and it was Wk 3 on a terrible Washington team - I'd say they aren't much of a threat to score a ton of points Thursday night. Dallas is only allowing 19.7 PPG. As for the Cowboys' offense, despite all that talent, they've scored all of 24 pts the L2 games combined. Granted, that was facing two of the top three scoring defenses in the NFL, but as stated above, the Bears rank 4th in that department. 10* Under Cowboys/Bears | |||||||
12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:15 ET): Endless throughout the telecast of tonight's game, you are bound to hear that Kirk Cousins is 0-7 (straight up) all-time on Monday Night Football. Were Al Michaels calling the game, you might also hear he's 0-7 ATS. But what you may not be told is that Cousins hasn't ever quarterbacked for a team this good. The Vikings are 8-3 SU and own the league's fourth best overall point differential (+84). This line implies that these teams would be considered "even" on a neutral field. That's simply not the case as the Vikings have been more impressive in my eyes. Take the points. Seattle has been living dangerously. Granted, they are 9-2 SU and have a chance to move up to the #1 seed in the NFC w/ a win tonight. But the vast majority of their games this year have been close. They are 7-1 SU in one-score games this season, 8-1 if you count last week's 8-point win at Philadelphia. Only New Orleans has a higher win percentage in games decided by one score this season. The Seahawks have just one win this year by greater than eight points and it came at the expense of last place Arizona. Those who have followed my picks for any length of time know that I lean heavily on scoring differential as a reliable indicator of future outcomes. I'm just not fully buying into this Seattle team yet. Their YTD point differential is only +29, which is outside the Top 10. Teams like Tennessee (7-5) and even Dallas (6-6) have outscored their opponents by more. The Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS in their home games. The Vikings are off a bye here. Cousins is the only QB in the league w/ a higher passer rating than Russell Wilson. The Vikings also have the better defense. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
12-01-19 | Packers v. Giants +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): At first blush, there's really no good reason to back the Giants here. They've lost seven straight games to fall to 2-9 SU on the season. But four of those seven losses have been one-score games. Eventually, the G-Men have got to win one, right? Green Bay was humbled last Sunday night in an ugly 38-7 loss out in San Francisco. The expectation of a bounce back has turned them into a very "public side" for this week. I think it's worth a fade. Take the points. I played against the Packers last week, noting they were shaping up to be a "public dog." Bettors see that 8-3 SU record and think this team is better than it actually is. Flaws were apparent last week in San Francisco, particularly along the offensive line, which is dealing with injuries. But the bottom line is that the Packers aren't as good as their record. I've talked about this for. They have been outgained this season and their defense, which was once thought to be an improved unit, is actually dead last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.4). I thought the Giants would be a little better in 2019. The decision to bench Eli Manning in favor of rookie Daniel Jones was the correct one. What's shocking though is how RB Saquon Barkley is struggling. He's averaged just 3.5 yards per carry the L4 weeks and has not scored a TD in three straight games. Look for him to break that streak here though against the suspect Packers' defense. The Packers' offense has been held below 200 total yards in its last two road games. Look for the home dog to keep this one close in what is a very strong "anti-public fade." 8* NY Giants | |||||||
12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Two weeks ago, in a game that ended w/ a much publicized brawl, the Browns beat the Steelers. It was only their seventh win over Pittsburgh since returning to the league in 1999 and the just the second in 14 tries. Cleveland was a 3-point home favorite for that game. I realize the final score was 21-7, but why are they road favorites here? I suppose a three-game win streak and the fact Pittsburgh is starting Devlin Hodges at QB play a role in that. But, to me, the Browns are back to where they were at the start of the season - overvalued. The last time Cleveland was favored in Pittsburgh was 30 years ago, Week 1 of the 1989 season and they won 51-0. That was Chuck Noll's final season! So it's been a long time since this situation presented itself. The Browns managed to sweep a three-game homestand to get back to 5-6, but last week's win was against the worst team in the league, Miami. History is simply not on Cleveland's side here. They have not swept a season series from the Steelers since 1988. Each of the last 8 times they've won the 1st meeting, they've gone 0-8 SU/ATS the second go around. They are 0-15 SU their L15 visits to Pittsburgh. The move from Mason Rudolph to Hodges is probably for the best. There's minimal distraction w/ Rudolph on the sideline. Also, the Steelers' numbers in the passing game actually go up when Hodges is under center. The number of yards per play, per pass attempt and third down conversion rate are all better. Granted it's a small sample size, but I took Hodges in his 1st career start when the Steelers ended up beating the Chargers. QB's making their 1st or 2nd career start have gone 14-4 ATS this season. The Steelers, who are 5-1 SU L6 games, have the better defense here. In addition to missing Myles Garrett, the Browns are going to be w/o LT Greg Robinson and S Damarious Randall. Pittsburgh is only w/o center Pouncey. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS as underdogs L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under Titans/Colts (1:00 ET): What an interesting season it's been with Tennesee totals. After winning the season opener 43-13 in Cleveland (easy Over), the next five games all stayed Under. I took the Over when they hosted the Chargers on Oct 20 and it cashed (barely). Since then, every game has gone Over. If you're looking for a reason for the big change, it can be tied to Ryan Tannehill of all people as the Titans offense has been much more effective w/ him as the QB as opposed to Marcus Mariota. But I like the Under this week as the Titans are matched up w/ a familiar opponent. The Colts played the Titans in Week 2. It was a 19-17 game, won by Indianapolis. Mariota started that game for Tennessee, so this will be Indy's first look at Fitzpatrick in a Titans' uniform. In the games Tannehill has started, Tennessee is 1st in the league in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD on 13 of 14 possessions. But I'm still skeptical of Tannehill. The Colts' defense is allowing just 20.5 PPG and has allowed more than 24 in regulation just two times all year. The Titans' L2 games have seen them score their highest point totals since the season opener, but they still are averaging just 22.3 PPG on the year and 18.8 PPG on the road. The Colts' offense likes to run the ball but RB Marlon Mack (hand) is still out. Plus, the Tennessee defense has permitted only one 100+ yard rusher all season - and it was Christian McCaffery. The Titans are allowing just 19.7 PPG on the year and 17.8 PPG on the road. So we're looking at some really low-scoring games when the Titans are the road team. Speaking of low-scoring, the Colts managed only 17 points LW in Houston. WR TY Hilton is also out here. The Titans scored 4 TDs in six offensive plays last week, which will not happen again. 10* Under Titans/Colts | |||||||
12-01-19 | Army +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 7 m | Show |
8* Army (11:59 ET): Everything about this situation screams "Army!" They have to win to get bowl eligible. They are coming off a bye. Before the bye, they had easy wins over UMass and VMI. Hawaii's situation could not be any more different. They are off a huge 14-11 win over San Diego State that guaranteed them a spot in next week's Mountain West Championship Game vs. Boise State. With that lookahead, the last thing the coaching staff wants to do is spend time preparing for the unique Army offense. Even before factoring in the obvious situational edge Army has, they should not be an underdog in this game. Take the points. Army won 21 games the previous two seasons, so 2019 has been a bit of a disappointment. All six losses this year have been by single digits, three of them by five points or less. Disappointment aside, this is such a favorable matchup. Not only because of the extra week to prepare for the long trip to Honolulu, but also because Hawaii's defense can be quite bad at stopping the run. The Warriors are bottom 10 in the country in yards per carry allowed and figure to have face the run 60+ times in this game. Earlier in the year, Hawaii faced Air Force and gave up 353 yards rushing on almost 7.0 YPC! Yikes! That ended up being a 56-26 loss. As if the situation couldn't be less favorable for Hawaii, the forecast is calling for high winds, which will limit their passing attack. Tip your cap to the job HC Nick Rolovich has done in his two years in Honolulu. No one expected the Warriors to make it to the Mt West Champ Game this season. But the excitement of doing so works against the team this week. Keep in mind Hawaii needed a missed FG last week to preserve the win over San Diego State. The offense has scored only 35 total pts the last two games. 8* Army | |||||||
11-30-19 | Arizona +13.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 107 h 37 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:00 ET): Things couldn't have possibly gone any better for Arizona State last week as they upset Oregon 31-28 as a 2 TD underdog. The win got the Sun Devils bowl eligible while simultaneously killing any shot Oregon had of making the CFP. But that result sets up this rare spot where ASU is unlikely to be able to have the same intensity for their rivalry game as they did last week. Arizona will treat this year's edition of the "Territorial Cup" as its "bowl game" as they come in at 4-7 SU. Last year, the Wildcats needed to beat ASU to get bowl eligible but lost. They'll certainly be hungry for some payback here. Take the points. Failing to make a bowl in B2B seasons is hardly how the faithful in Tucson envisioned the Kevin Sumlin era starting. But that's the reality here. The Wildcats have not covered since a 35-30 win at Colorado (were +2.5) back on October 5th. Since pulling that upset, they are 0-6 SU and ATS. While an outright win here seems unlikely, if the Wildcats can't show some pride, then Sumlin's stay here could be a short one. You can't keep getting blown out, week after week. Winning this rivalry game would at least be a nice way to end a disappointing season. While I struggle to write anything positive about Arizona here, this is more of a fade on ASU. Not only is it a difficult spot due to being off a big-time upset, but the Sun Devils have not been good as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS as chalk for Coach Herm this season including three outright losses. The split in two years under Edwards is now pretty severe. ASU is 2-8-1 ATS when favored. Getting points, they are 9-5 ATS w/ six outright wins. This is just the 6th time under Edwards that they've been favored in a Pac 12 game and they've failed to cover the last four including three outright losses this year! The Sun Devils have only had to lay more than 7.5 pts twice in 2019 and those games resulted in ATS losses vs. Sacramento State & Kent State. 8* Arizona | |||||||
11-30-19 | BYU v. San Diego State OVER 40.5 | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 37 m | Show |
8* Over BYU/San Diego State (9:00 ET): A tough spot for SDSU here. The Aztecs lost out in Hawaii last week, a game that decided the MWC West Division. The disappointment of knowing they won't be able to play for a conference championship will likely linger into this regular season finale vs. BYU. Brigham Young is an independent, thus they have no such distractions. They've won five straight, two of them against Mt West teams including the likely conference champ Boise State. They've already booked a trip to the 2019 Hawaii Bowl. I don't this game will have the same defensive intensity as it would have were it played a few weeks ago. Take the Over. Every San Diego State game but one has gone Under this year (10-1 Under). But coming off the close loss to Hawaii last week, I don't see the Aztecs' defense playing up to its usual standard. It was an 'ugly' 14-11 setback out on the island w/ a missed FG in the final minute being the difference. I realize the Aztecs' offense has struggled mightily throughout this 2019 season and will be w/o QB Ryan Agnew here. But if they can get close to 20 points (they average 19.5 PPG), then this should be an easy Over w/ the number being so low. BYU is banged up in the backfield as well, but still scored 56 points last week. I know that was against a terrible UMass defense, but the Cougars have averaged almost 40 PPG during their current win streak. I know they aren't likely to approach that number this week, but even half that would likely lead to an Over. BYU has dominated San Diego State through the years, winning six straight and 9 of 10 going back to 2002. It's important to note this will be the lowest O/U for the Cougars this season. The only lower O/U for SDSU was the one time they went Over (vs. Wyoming). This game finds a way to get Over. 8* Over BYU/San Diego St | |||||||
11-30-19 | Colorado +29 v. Utah | Top | 15-45 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 8 m | Show |
8* Colorado (7:30 ET): Well, Arizona was unable to get the job done last week. But you can expect more motivation from Colorado here against #6 Utah. I was impressed by the effort from Mel Tucker's team in a 20-14 upset of Washington last week where they were 2 TD home underdogs. The Buffaloes do to hit the road this week and while another upset is unlikely, it would give them bowl eligibility. Because of that, I don't see this turning into another Utah blowout. The Utes are red hot, but could be looking ahead to next week's Pac 12 Championship Game vs. Oregon. They'll win, but won't cover. Utah technically has not qualified for the Pac 12 Championship Game yet They need to win this game. Obviously, judging by the pointspread, winning seems like a formality. The Utes have won and covered seven straight since losing at USC on a Friday night back in September. That 7-game ATS win streak is currently the longest in the country. There is no doubt that this is an impressive team that has the credentials to make the College Football Playoff were they to win out. But even though six of their last seven wins have come by at least 25 points, I see this being "closer than the experts think." It's the biggest number the Utes have had to lay to any FBS opponent all season. Colorado dominated the line of scrimmage in last week's upset of Washington, running for 207 yds at 5.0 YPC. They held the Huskies to just 238 total yds, including only 32 on the ground. It was the second game in a row the much maligned Buffaloes defense allowed 14 pts or less. It's not going to be that easy here, but they enticement of a bowl opportunity should keep the underdog motivated throughout. The Buffs played a couple "stinkers" at Oregon and Washington State, but three of their other four losses have been by a TD or less. Utah is entering a game w/ some real pressure for the 1st time and I think they play this one pretty "close to the vest." They've not been a 28+ pt favorite vs. a FBS foe in the L5 seasons. 8* Colorado | |||||||
11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 8 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): This game will determine the winner of the Big 10 West and who goes on to face Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Big 10 West was thought to be pretty wide open coming into the year, so it's not that big of a surprise to see a team like Minnesota coming from "relative obscurity" to challenge for the crown. But it also should be pointed out that the Gophers have played the easiest Big 10 schedule possible by avoiding both Ohio State & Michigan. They've been favored in almost every game, save for the loss to Iowa and a game against Penn State where they gave up over 500 yards. Wisconsin is the better team here. The Badgers are a team I once considered to be "top 5 worthy." Their season obviously changed w/ B2B weeks where they lost to Illinois as a 29-point favorite and then were blown out by Ohio State. After allowing just 29 pts total the first six games (FOUR shutouts!), the Badgers have given up 21 or more to the L5 opponents. Yet all but one win this year has come by at least nine points. They have outgained opponents by 173.1 YPG this season. Not afraid to lay the short number here as Wisconsin is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite. This is actually the oldest rivalry in College Football as it dates back to 1890. Minnesota snapped a 15-year losing streak last year w/ a convincing 37-15 win in Madison, a game which they came in as 11-point underdogs. I'm sure the Badgers remember and revenge will be a factor. The Golden Gophers have not won "Paul Bunyan's Axe" (trophy the teams play for) B2B years since 1993-94. This boils down to the fact that I have simply been more impressed w/ Wisconsin this year. Minnesota is still a team I'm not sure deserves to be mentioned among the top 15 nationally, even w/ their WL record. There were five different games they easily could have lost this year. 10* Wisconsin | |||||||
11-30-19 | Wyoming v. Air Force UNDER 43 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 41 m | Show |
***THIS PLAY IS ACTUALLY ON THE OVER 10* Over Wyoming/Air Force (2:00 ET): I've had lots of success betting Air Force games this season, starting w/ the Flyboys' 31-7 thrashing of Utah State in a late night home game back on October 26th. Since then, I've managed to both successfully fade them (laying 17 to Army) and cash them (at Colorado State, thanks to a late pick-six). The Falcons come into the regular season finale at 9-2 (2nd best record among Mt West teams) after clobbering New Mexico 44-22 last week, a game I did not play. Considering how much they've been scoring of late, I think Over is a more than reasonable play here, especially w/ such a low number. The reason for the total being so low here is Wyoming. The Cowboys have gone Under in five straight games and they've all been low-scoring affairs. QB Sean Chambers being lost for the season has played a big hand in the offense not doing much, but the Pokes do have a pretty good defense as well. Not since Missouri in the season opener has a Wyoming opponent scored more than 26 points. But I wouldn't be too convinced that the Cowboys are looking forward to facing the vaunted AFA triple option offense in this regular season finale. Other than vs. their fellow service academies (Army, Navy) and Boise State, Air Force has scored at least 30 points in every game this season. The Falcons will certainly be motivated coming into this game. Not only can they make it a 10-win season, but they also are looking to snap a three-year losing skid to Wyoming. Two of those losses have come as favorites and they've given up at least 28 points in every game. But Wyoming has been a strong underdog this year, beating Missouri outright as a 16.5-pt dog and then only losing by a combined 15 pts the other four times they've gotten points. I get how Wyoming games have trended lately, but this O/U line is set to be the lowest for both teams this year. Even against a stout run defense, Air Force will get its ground game going. 10* Over Wyoming/Air Force | |||||||
11-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 | Top | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
10* Virginia (12:00 ET): While much of the College Football world will be focusing in on the big Ohio State-Michigan game this weekend and whether or not the underdog can reverse an ugly series history in that particular rivalry, the same narrative also rings true here in the Commonwealth Cup. In fact, things have been even more one-sided here, if you can believe it. Virginia has lost to Va Tech a record 15 consecutive times with many of the recent battles being close. Last year's defeat was among the most painful as UVA blew a 4Q lead and fell in OT. Virginia came into this season w/ its eye on winning the ACC's Coastal Division. That goal will be accomplished if they can finally beat the Hokies. Despite the dreadful series history, there is some good news here for the Cavaliers. The game is in Charlottesville where they are a perfect 6-0 SU this season, winning by an average of 20 points per game. Their offensive output jumps up to 41.2 PPG here at Scott Stadium, which is well above what the average is on the road. The Hoos have been the most consistent Coastal team in 2019 and this is the first time they have been a home dog all season. The bad news is Virginia Tech comes in hot. The Hokies share the same records as UVA as both are 8-3 overall and 5-2 in conference. But the path Va Tech to get here is a little different. They've caught fire in the second half of the season, winning six of seven (only loss was by 1 pt @ Notre Dame) after suffering what was a humiliating 45-10 defeat to Duke in a Friday night home game. The Hokies are also on a 6-0 ATS run after starting 0-4 ATS. Because they're hot and have had Virginia's number, this number has already changed significantly from the time it opened. I keep coming back to "if not now, when?" for Virginia. My projections say they should be a 5-pt favorite here. I'll trust those numbers and the fact Va Tech has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 games w/ a line of 3 pts or less. 10* Virginia | |||||||
11-29-19 | Toledo v. Central Michigan UNDER 65 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan (12:00 ET): The complexion of this game was altered dramatically by Western Michigan losing Tuesday. Now the door is wide open for Central Michigan to win the MAC West. All the Chippewas must do is win this game, which they are expected to comfortably (now a double-digit favorite). But don't expect Toledo to roll over. The Rockets are bowl eligible, but a loss here would leave them at 6-6. With more MAC teams bowl eligible than there are available bowl slots, some of the 6-win teams are inevitably going to be left out. Toledo doesn't want to see it's 9-year bowl streak come to an end. If you've been following either of these teams, then you know both have been going Over the total with great regularity. Toledo is 5-0 Over its last five games while CMU is 6-0 Over its last six. But if you've been following my O/U plays during this great streak that I'm on, then you already know that fading such streaks has been "the name of the game." This is a higher O/U line than either team is used to seeing. Four of the five straight Toledo games that have gone Over have seen O/U lines of 58.5 pts or lower. Their games average 59.7 PPG for the season. Central Michigan has seen totals in the high 40's during their Over streak and this will be the highest O/U line for any of their games this year. CMU games average 60.0 PPG on the nose. Putting aside the total for a moment, the streak CMU is more concerned about ending is nine straight losses to Toledo. While four of those losses have occurred in Mt. Pleasant, getting this game at home is huge for the Chippewas as they are allowing only 19.8 PPG here (5-0 SU). Toledo's scoring average drops to 23.2 PPG on the road. CMU has not scored more than 17 pts on the Rockets' defense since 2015. While this is a better team going against an inferior Toledo product, expect the offense to not totally have its way. This is potentially a "nervous moment" for the Chippewas. 10* Under Toledo/Central Michigan | |||||||
11-28-19 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 49 | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
10* Under Saints/Falcons (8:20 ET): When I released Atlanta as a *10* Game of the Week selection three weeks ago in New Orleans, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons would win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing about it is just how dominant a SU victory it was. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. Can the defense do it again? I think so! Take the Under here. The week after they stunned the Saints, the Falcons defense stepped up big again in a 29-3 win at Carolina. At that point, it certainly "felt" as though their season might be turning around as they returned home to face a fellow 3-7 team, Tampa Bay. But we faded and the Falcons lost 35-22. Not sure what happened to that defensive resurgence, but the Bucs offense had a big day. Atlanta's offense did not w/ only 13 pts through three quarters. They had a late garbage time TD that sent the game Over. That Over would not have been possible w/o a late TB defensive score as well. The Falcons only average 22.0 PPG this year. The Saints have been one of the luckier teams this year. They were fortunate to go 5-0 SU w/ Teddy Bridgewater filling in for an injured Drew Brees. Last week, they pulled another "rabbit out of the hat" w/ a 34-31 win over Carolina, kicking a GW FG as time expired, only after Carolina missed its own FG try. Though they appeared to look "as good as ever" last week, this Saints' offense has its problems. They tend to start slow and have had four different games where they failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. They only average 24.7 PPG, but are fortunate to have a defense which allows just 20.9 PPG. 10* Under Saints/Falcons | |||||||
11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:30 ET): Last year saw the Cowboys win the NFC East with a 10-6 SU record (despite only a +18 point differential). This year's team is every bit as talented, if not more so given they have a full season of Amari Cooper plus the return of TE Jason Witten. America's Team has the 4th best point differential in the league right now at +85. Yet they are stuck w/ a 6-5 SU record. If you've got a keen eye, the reason for the difference in record is easy to spot. Last year's team was a league-best 9-2 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!). This year, they are 0-4 in such contests. Funny how those things work out! Despite only losing by 4 pts last week, to one of the league's best teams (New England), owner Jerry Jones of course had to open up his big yap. Certainly I didn't need Jones to identify that Bill Belichick is a better coach than Jason Garrett. That's pretty well understood. Missing the playoffs may very well cost Garrett his job and unfortunately for him, that's how I see things ending up. I know they were facing an elite defense last week, but the Cowboys were held to just 9 points. They face another strong defensive team this week. Buffalo has certainly taken advantage of a weak schedule to get to 8-3 SU. But look at whom the Cowboys have beaten. Five of their six wins have been against the Giants (2), Redskins, Dolphins and Lions. Those teams are a collective 9-34-1 SU! So you can't penalize the Bills for their weak schedule in handicapping this matchup. I just cannot see Dallas blowing out a team that allows only 15.7 points per game. Buffalo dominated Denver last week, winning 20-3 while allowing less than 3.0 yards per play. There's been only one game all season where the Bills allowed more than 21 points. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs, including their own cover at New England. This is just the 2nd time they've gotten more than 3.5 pts in a game this year (NE being 1st). I expect this to be a close game and all the outside distraction this week certainly doesn't help the favorite. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions OVER 37 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 101 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
8* Over Bears/Lions (12:35 ET): Low total here as both teams have been going Under quite regularly of late, including one game where they played each other. That 20-13 Week 10 result (that went in the Bears' favor) marked the first time the Lions were forced to start Jeff Driskel in place of the injured Matt Stafford. While it may seem a little challenging to handicap this rematch in light of the Lions' QB situation (they may be down to third-stringer David Blough), I am forging ahead w/ the Over. It doesn't take all that much to send a game Over a total like this. Chicago has had its own QB issues, bouncing back and forth between Mitchell Trubisky and backup Chase Daniel. Given how ineffective he's been, it's stunning to think back to August when Trubisky was getting bets to win league MVP. He did lead his team to victory last Sunday, 19-14 over the Giants, and while it was ugly the Bears offense did gain 20 first downs. All 19 pts were scored in the 3rd quarter. The Lions' defense they'll be up against here is not good. It has allowed at least 23 points in all but three games this year. Obviously, I'm hopeful Driskel will be the starter here for the Lions. But if not, I'm still confident the offense will be able to score enough to help send this one Over. I know both offenses are short-handed, but this reminds me of a few weeks ago when I bet the Over on Jets-Redskins and won. This is the NFL and eventually an offense is going to start scoring. In this case, we have two that are long overdue to put some points on the road. Two weeks ago, with Driskel at the helm, the Lions did score 27 against the Cowboys. Last week's loss to the Redskins saw them put up a respectable 364 yards at 5.1 per play. 8* Over Bears/Lions | |||||||
11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 51.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): For Western Michigan, the mission is simple here. Win and you are the MAC West Division Champs. Lose and you open the door for Central Michigan, who plays Friday (at home vs. Toledo). The Broncos come into this game at 7-4 SU and winners of three straight. They've averaged an impressive 40.3 PPG during the win streak, however, it should be pointed out that before the L2 both went Over, WMU's previous five contests were all Unders. That's the way I'm thinking here as we're "due" for a low-scoring game Tuesday night in DeKalb. At 4-7 SU, Northern Illinois has been reduced to the role of spoiler in this regular season finale. This is one of the weaker Huskies teams in years and it'll be just the second time in the last decade that they're NOT going bowling. A big problem has been the offense, which has been held to just 23.4 PPG this year. They scored only 17 in a blowout loss to Eastern Michigan last week. On the bright side, the defense often "shows up" here at home (not last week) where it is allowing only 20.5 PPG. Last week saw NIU give up 24 pts in the 3Q w/ 10 of those coming off two turnovers that led to short fields. Western Michigan had to go to OT last week to pick up its first road win of the season. The Broncos beat Ohio 37-34, a game which was 10-0 in their favor at halftime. The previous week saw another high scoring 2nd half, primarily the 4Q, against Ball State. They very easily could be coming into this game on a 7-game Under streak. NIU has gone Over in six straight, a streak I can't see continuing as their defense only allows 270 YPG at home for the season. Western Michigan's offense declines greatly on the road, down to 27.6 PPG. 10* Under Western Michigan/Northern Illinois | |||||||
11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 103 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Ravens/Rams (8:20 ET): This is a much different Rams team than we’re accustomed to seeing under HC Sean McVay, especially on the offensive side of things. McVay’s first two years here brought back memories of the “Greatest Show on Turf,” but 2019 has seen QB Jared Goff regress to a level not seen since he was a rookie operating under a different coaching staff. At least the Rams defense has held up their “end of the bargain” recently, giving up a league-low 11 PPG the last four weeks. That’s allowed for a 3-1 SU record, but Monday night they are underdogs against Baltimore team that leads the league in scoring at 34.1 PPG. With the Ravens’ offense doing most of the “heavy lifting,” look for this game to go Over. Those last four games have seen the Rams’ defense go up against Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Chicago. Every single one of those opponents has had issues at the QB position. Baltimore has no issues w/ Lamar Jackson now the betting favorite to win league MVP. With Jackson passing and running, the Ravens have scored 30+ pts in four straight games. They scored a total of 90 in just the L2 games. Perhaps the most impressive thing of all with this Ravens’ offense is that they are averaging 38.4 PPG on the road! Remember the Rams gave up 55 at home to the 3-7 Bucs earlier this year. While I believe Baltimore will be playing a significant role in this game going Over, don’t discount what the Rams can do either. I know they are not what they’ve been the last two seasons, but they’ve faced two tough defenses the last two weeks. Baltimore’s D is giving up 5.8 yards per play. The Rams will get back WR Brandin Cooks this week, which should help not just Goff, but also fellow wideout Cooper Kupp. This Rams offense has had some rough days when facing some of the league’s top defenses, but they also have scored at least 27 points in half their games. I don’t consider the Ravens an elite team defensively anymore. 10* Over Ravens/Rams | |||||||
11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 39 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): The 49ers have certainly looked vulnerable the L3 weeks, but here they are standing at 9-1 SU coming into SNF on NBC. Those L3 games were all against division rivals that traditionally give them trouble (Arizona & Seattle). Here they'll be hosting a Green Bay team that certainly appears stronger on paper (at least compared to the Cardinals), however, when you dig a little deeper, you discover the Packers aren't nearly as dominant as their 8-2 record would seem to indicate. They've been outgained on the year and most of their wins have been nailbiters. That the Pack are coming off a bye is irrelevant to me in this situation. Lay the short number. The 49ers were lucky to cover, let alone win last week against Arizona. They scored the game-winning TD w/ just 31 seconds left on the clock, then picked up a Cardinals fumble on the final play and ran that in for a TD to make it a 36-26 final. For some that fumble return changed the ATS result (my apologies if you were caught on the wrong end of that one). However, let's not totally writeoff what the Niners did, okay? They outgained the Cards 442-266 for the game and had a huge edge in yards per play (6.7 vs. 4.3). Though the defense has suddenly allowed an average of 26 PPG the L3 wks, it still ranks second in both yards and points allowed for the year. Green Bay's defense turned in one of its better efforts two weeks ago when I cashed the Under in their game vs. Carolina as my 10* Total of the Month. But they had to hold off the Panthers on the final play (inside the 10-yd line) to preserve the 24-16 victory. Something to keep an eye on here is the trenches as Green Bay can't run the ball at all on the road (82 YPG) while the Niners are averaging 159 YPG rushing at home. At home, the 49ers are +15.4 points and 152.6 yards per game. The Packers, despite being 3-1 on the road, are -123.5 YPG! This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field, but that's simply not the case. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
11-24-19 | Panthers +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): Those in Carolina that were looking to make the case that Kyle Allen was a better option at QB than Cam Newton now have a little "egg on their face" after watching Allen regress mightily the last few weeks. I was always willing to concede that Allen is better than a banged up Newton. But the notion he was better than a healthy former league MVP was somewhat laughable. The Panthers now sit at 5-5 and are big dogs this week at New Orleans. This will easily be the most points they've been catching for any game this season. Despite what I just wrote about Allen, I'm willing to take the points here as I'm not nearly as high on New Orleans as the market is. The Saints crushed me last week by beating Tampa Bay 34-17. The Bucs were my Game of the the Year and I thought an outstanding play as a home dog. Unfortunately, they committed four turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable. Total yardage in the game was basically even and the Bucs averaged more yards per play. Even w/ Drew Brees back, I still have some suspicions about a New Orleans team that has been fortunate to go 5-0 SU this season in one-score games. Four of those five wins were with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. But Brees was back when the Saints lost outright to the Falcons here at home two weeks ago, 26-9 as 14-pt chalk. Carolina found itself on the WRONG end of a +4 turnover margin last week against Atlanta. That and allowing a special teams TD spelled disaster for the Panthers in their own horrible home loss to the Falcons (29-3 as 4-pt chalk). But prior to last week, Carolina had suffered only one loss all year by more than eight points. New Orleans has failed to cover five of the last six times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. An Atlanta pass rush that had previously been lackluster gave Brees and the Saints fits two weeks ago. The Panthers lead the league in sacks. As far as the Carolina offense, don't forget about Christian McCaffery, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage. 8* Carolina | |||||||
11-24-19 | Bucs +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I'm not ready to give up on the Buccaneers just yet, even though SIX STRAIGHT ATS losses might seem to indicate that it's time to rethink things. I haven't been on all those losses, or even most of them for that matter. But I did have the Bucs last week as my Game of the Year and that was about as frustrating a watch as I can remember. This hard-luck team just can't seem to get out of its own way. Despite losing to the Saints 34-17 last week, TB actually finished with slightly more yards for the game and outgained New Orleans on a per play basis. But FOUR turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable - proved to be their undoing. Now it's onto Atlanta where all of a sudden the Falcons seem to be pointed in the right direction. You may recall it was two weeks ago that I took the Dirty Birds plus the points in the Big Easy and the pulled off the shocker of the year, beating the Saints 26-9 as a 14-point dog. They then made it B2B division road wins as they slammed Carolina last week 29-3 (were +4.5). After producing all of seven in the first eight games (went 1-7), the Falcons' pass rush has exploded for 11 sacks these L2 games. But it's important to check the box score a little bit more. Atlanta was just the opposite of Tampa Bay last week in that they benefited from a +4 TO margin. The Falcons beating the Saints two weeks ago is was proof again that "anything can happen" in the NFL. So there's no reason to give up on the Bucs. They have a positive yardage differential for the season. On the injury front, the news is good w/ LB Carl Nassib set to return. Tampa Bay's defense is bad against the pass, but is #2 against the run w/ Nassib being their best stopper. Atlanta is going to be w/o RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper this week. WR Julio Jones has also missed practice time. The L2 games aside, the Falcons have been far from a pointspread juggernaut themselves. They are 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, losing both games outright. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): This was originally going to the Sunday Night Game, but was flexed out in favor of Packers-49ers (which I am also playing). This Seahawks-Eagles matchup happens to be the rare instance of the public loading up on the underdog. I suppose it's fairly easy to understand why. Seattle has covered seven straight times in the road underdog role and is a perfect 3-0 outright as a road dog this season. They are also 8-2 (Philly just 5-5) and coming off a bye. Before that bye week, they handed the 49ers their first loss of the season in an upset on MNF. But I still see some flaws w/ Russell Wilson and company. This team is extremely fortunate to have gone 7-1 SU this year in one score games. Their only win of 2019 that was by more than a touchdown came back in Week 4 at Arizona. Five of their wins have been by 4 pts or less. Their last two wins were both overtime games. On the year, they have a point differential of only +21. The Seahawks simply do not have the statistical profile of a team you'd expect to be 8-2. Down the stretch, I'm going to act accordingly and look to fade when appropriate. This is one of those times. Though Lane Johnson remains in the concussion protocol, the Eagles still should be getting more respect coming into this game. They hung tough w/ New England last week here at home, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead. Really, it's a game they could have won. Though battling some injuries, I don't believe anything is truly "wrong" w/ the Eagles offense. The defense is allowing just 18.2 PPG at home. The last three games, the Eagles have allowed just 44 points total. 8* Philadelphia | |||||||
11-23-19 | Utah v. Arizona +23 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:00 ET): You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams going in more opposite directions than these two Pac 12 South rivals. Utah saw it's impressive run continue last week w/ a 49-3 beatdown of UCLA. The Utes have now won and covered six straight since suffering their only loss of the year - on a Friday night at USC. Those six wins have come by an average of 34.1 PPG! Clearly, this is a team worthy of its Top 10 ranking in the CFP (currently #7) and they appear to be on a collision course w/ fellow 1-loss team Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Speaking of Oregon, Arizona lost to them last week by score of 34-6. That leaves the Wildcats on the cusp of missing out on a bowl for a second straight season, hardly the way Kevin Sumlin envisioned his Tucson tenure starting. They are currently 4-6 SU and would need to win the next two games (at Arizona St next week) just to be bowl eligible. Given the pointspread in this game, the likelihood of an outright win is rather minute. But the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason. I see a desperate home team getting a lot of points and like the situation. I realize Arizona has failed to cover five in a row. But coupled w/ Utah's six-game ATS run, this game just feels like it's going to be tighter than expected. Getting blown out again this week would be a severe blow to the Sumlin regime, which has already seen midseason turnover on the staff. It's worth noting the Utes do give up 19.2 PPG on the road (about 8.0 more than season average) and while they only allowed 3 pts last week, UCLA certainly moved the ball on them. Not that they would have won, but five Bruins turnovers were huge in that game, especially since one was returned for a TD and another occurred at the Utah goal line. UCLA also threw an INT in Utah territory and missed a FG. When it came to covering the spread, those plays were the difference. Hopefully, Arizona plays a clean game. If they do, look for them to cover. 8* Arizona | |||||||
11-23-19 | Oregon v. Arizona State +14 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 23 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (7:30 ET): Oregon is #6 in the latest CFP ranking and may actually have a path to the playoff were there to be some late-season chaos in the SEC. But of course, the Ducks must handle their own business between now and Selection Sunday. They've already clinched the Pac 12 North and a likely showdown w/ fellow 1-loss team Utah looms in the Conference Championship Game. It's ironic that the SEC holds Oregon's fate because the Ducks' lone loss came in the season opener vs. Auburn, a game which they led for all but nine seconds. Arizona State is just trying to get bowl eligible. This will be the fifth try for Herm Edwards team, which enters in on a four-game losing streak. Were they to lose again this week, then the Sun Devils would need to win next week's Territorial Cup against Arizona for that elusive sixth victory. They'd obviously like to avoid that as there's an ever-so-slight chance the Wildcats could also enter that game needed a win for bowl eligibility. I like this spot for Coach Herm as he is 8-5 ATS as a dog since returning to the College game w/ six outright wins. The three times he's been a DD dog (2-1 ATS, one SU win), his defense has allowed just 55 total pts. Going back to before Edwards got here, ASU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a DD dog, including SIX outright wins. Furthermore, Oregon has not had the most pleasant experiences when visiting The Grand Canyon State. They've lost three of the past four times playing either Arizona or Arizona State and were favored in all three losses. That includes their previous visit to Tempe (2017) where they were -15 and lost 37-35. Not saying the Ducks lose this one, but it's a lot of weight to lay. They were pretty fortunate to beat Washington and Washington State (both wins by 4 pts or less). Three of ASU's five losses have been by five points or less and only one (Utah) by more than 10. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels has still looked good during the losing skid, save for that Utah game, completing 69% of his passes w/ a 9-0 TD-INT ratio in those other three games. ASU should score enough to at least cover here. 10* Arizona State | |||||||
11-23-19 | Tennessee v. Missouri -3.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
10* Missouri (7:30 ET): Well, Mizzou has definitely done a good job of letting us down the last two weeks. One of the two losses was somewhat understandable as they were stuck w/ a backup QB against Georgia. But after teasing his return for that game and not delivering, Kelly Bryant did return last week vs. Florida and it shockingly meant little as the Tigers were held to only six points in a 4th straight loss. The first three losses were all on the road. Now the Tigers are in the position of still needing a win just to become bowl eligible. I think they'll get it on Senior Night. Lay the short number here. Like Missouri, Tennessee comes into this game needing one more win for bowl eligibility. Same as the Tigers, the Vols are going to be favored next week against a last place conference foe. So, as far as the postseason goes, both teams remain in fine shape. But the difference is right now UT seems to have the "momentum" (hate that word!) after three straight wins. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS the L5 games and 4-1 SU w/ the only loss coming against Alabama. Still, I think it's important to look at the whole picture and not just a small sample size. Missouri was once ranked and has been favored in all but two games. Tennessee hasn't sniffed the Top 25 and has been a dog in every SEC game this season! Things are due to turn for both teams. After scoring 31+ in each of the first six games, Missouri has scored only 27 pts total its last four games. Not to keep using that same word, but I cannot stress just how "shocking" this freefall truly is. Good for them then that Tennessee has averaged just 11.0 points and 255.3 yards per game on the road this season. The Tigers' defense is allowing just 13.5 PPG here in Columbia. So the Volunteers aren't going to score much. Not to make excuses, but LW's game vs. Florida swung on a couple bad calls that went against Mizzou. It was just a 6-3 game at halftime. They won't be falling for Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt being so "coy" with his QB situation (Jarrett Guarantano is getting the bulk of the snaps). 10* Missouri | |||||||
11-23-19 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 60 | Top | 49-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
8* Under Memphis/South Florida (4:00 ET): #18 Memphis has certainly been unkind to Under bettors this year, delivering seven consecutive Overs. But it should be pointed out that last week's needed a blocked punt return for a TD (by Houston) in the final minutes. The blocked punt came in the least urgent of situations too; with Memphis leading 45-20. The Tigers' defense actually turned in a solid effort, allowing just 256 total yards. When Houston got the ball on the Memphis' side of the field following a turnover, they were held to just a field goal after a 6-play, 8-yard drive. South Florida "should have" beaten Cincinnati last week. It was a game they outgained the opponent 438-278, had a 10-0 lead at halftime and never trailed until the final play. That final play was 37-yard FG w/ no time remaining. The Bulls' defense should at least hold its head high though. Cincinnati had scored 46 and 48 points the previous two weeks. USF has been pretty good at stopping the opponent all season, really. They've held five of the last six opponents to 23 points or less. While only one team (Temple) has been able to hold Memphis below 35 pts since the season opener, the Bulls just might be capable of doing so here at home. The problem for USF though is going to be an offense that really isn't capable of scoring a ton. Three of the last four games, the Bulls have been held to 17 points or fewer. The one exception was the hideous East Carolina defense. Against top 50 teams, the Bulls' offense is averaging less than 10 points per game this year! That is very bad! Though Memphis must win here to keep it's New Year's Six Bowl Game hopes alive, it's really all about next week's showdown vs. Cincinnati and then a potential rematch in the AAC Title Game. The defense will do its job, but so will USF's, which has allowed just three touchdowns in the past two games. 8* Under Memphis/South Florida | |||||||
11-23-19 | Texas A&M v. Georgia OVER 44 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia (3:30 ET): This is an awfully low total for a game where both offenses are averaging more than 32.0 PPG. Of course, you have to factor in the great Georgia defense (10.5 PPG allowed) which has led to five straight Unders for them. But A&M will bring arguably the best offense they've seen in Athens all season, or at least since the Notre Dame game. The Aggies have won four straight and averaged 37.0 PPG while doing so. They just gained 540 total yards on a South Carolina defense that had held UGA to only 17 points. Take the Over in this one. Texas A&M has three losses, but they were to Alabama (47-28), Clemson (24-10) and Auburn (28-20). That has them, arguably, as the best 3-loss team in the country. QB Mond is completing 64% of his pass attempts this season for nearly 2,500 yards. Said Georgia HC Kirby Smart, "Their receiving corps will be one of the best we've played against." This is a low total for an A&M game. This season has seen their games average 54.3 PPG. This'll be the lowest number for any game to date and they've gone Over 2 of the 3 that were below 55 points, which makes sense. Believe it or not, but this will be the first time these schools have met as SEC rivals. While Georgia does average 32.4 PPG, they've been below that number in five straight games. In fact, they've failed to top 27 during that time. But this could be a breakout day as they honor the seniors in the final home game at Samford Stadium. A&M has allowed only 20 points the L2 weeks, but has also given up some high point totals this year, not just to the big boys either. They allowed 27 against Arkansas and 30 to Mississippi State. The Over is 6-1 the Aggies' L7 games vs. teams that have winning records. 8* Over Texas A&M/Georgia | |||||||
11-23-19 | Boston College v. Notre Dame UNDER 64 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 1 m | Show |
8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): This seems like an exceptionally high total for a game involving these two teams. Part of that is the fact B.C. has gone Over in five straight games. But still, seven of the last eight times these "Holy War" rivals have met, the game has gone Under. The exception was the last one, played two years ago, when Notre Dame won 49-20 in Chesnut Hill. Recent BC games have seen some outrageous scoring and the Fighting Irish did just hang 52 on Navy last week. But BC only managed 7 pts in its only game vs. a ranked foe this season (Clemson) and Notre Dame's defense has been pretty good, save for the Michigan disaster. Take the Under. Ever since QB Anthony Brown went down with an injury, Boston College's offense has become totally one-dimensional. Lucky for them, that one-dimension involves running the ball w/ A.J. Dillon. Two weeks ago against Syracuse, the Eagles gained a school-record 691 yds of total offense. But almost 500 of those came on the ground! Maybe they feel good about themselves going into this game as ND just allowed 281 yds rushing against Navy. But Navy's triple option is a "special animal" and the Irish actually allowed only 4.4 yards per carry. Facing such a run-heavy offense the week prior to B.C. should actually be to the defense's benefit. Coming off a bye week, Boston College's defense should be well prepared for QB Ian Book and the rest of the Notre Dame offense. That's going to be key for them because the Eagles don't figure to do much scoring in this game. The Fighting Irish have allowed more than 23 points in only one game this season and it was the disaster in Ann Arbor. They are 6-0 SU in South Bend, allowing an average of just 16.8 PPG. Given that B.C. is likely to be down big in this game, they'll have to abandon the run early (like they did vs. Clemson when the ran for just 97 yds) and passing just isn't their strong suit. 8* Under Boston College/Notre Dame | |||||||
11-21-19 | NC State +2 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* NC State (8:00 ET): When Georgia Tech was initially bet up for this Thursday night matchup, I didn't understand the line move at all. NC State, for all their issues right now, still has a chance at becoming bowl eligible (if they were to win out). As injury-laden as the Wolfpack might be right now, their issues don't run as deep as those for Ga Tech, who is experiencing the expected growing pains in moving from the triple option to a more "pro-style" offense. Last week's 45-0 loss to Virginia Tech shows the Yellow Jackets still have a ways to go. Take the underdog here. Now NC State has lost four in row themselves - both SU and ATS. But a win here would potentially set up a game w/ North Carolina next week where the winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser stays home for the postseason. The game will take place in Raleigh. While November has been ugly so far, let's note that the Wolfpack did outgain Louisville last week in a 34-20 loss, 377-326. They led at halftime. But their undoing was a -3 turnover margin. Incredibly, NC State's defense has not forced a turnover since a win over Ball State on Sept 22nd! That can't continue. Georgia Tech has been pretty generous in giving the ball away this season (1.7 turnovers per game), so look for the Wolfpack's turnover-less streak to end here. That'll be key to victory. Georgia Tech is just 2-8 and has nothing left to play for this season. Their offense is averaging just 16.5 PPG and they got steamrolled last week here at home, 45-0. Virginia Tech outgained them 451-132 in what was a major step back for HC Geoff Collins' first year in Atlanta. While the Yellow Jackets have typically owned this ACC rivalry (12-3 SU L15), those were better teams they were putting on the field. This team is last in the country in red zone efficiency. NC State has won five straight non-division ACC contests and the motivation of becoming bowl eligible is the difference in this one. Georgia Tech has been favored only one time this year vs. a FBS opponent. 8* NC State | |||||||
11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 54.5 | Top | 30-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
analysis soon 10* Under Toledo/Buffalo (7:30 ET): This is a pretty fair O/U line, in my opinion. Both teams have each gone Over in three straight (Toledo four straight). A year ago at this time, Buffalo was prepping to play in the MAC Title Game and was on its way to the first 10-win season in program history. Regression was all but assured this year, but tip your cap to the job done by Lance Leipold as the Bulls should be back in a bowl (need to win just 1 of their final 2 games). Last week's 30-27 OT loss at Kent State was a step in the wrong direction, however. UB (-6.5) blew a 27-6 lead, giving up 24 pts in the final eight minutes. I'm proud to state we had the underdog in that one. But we were a little lucky. Toledo has been a disappointment this year. The preseason to win the MAC West, the Rockets are just 3-3 in conference play and have been outscored by 42 pts. They are already bowl eligible, however, that probably doesn't erase the sting of LW's 31-28 home loss to Northern Illinois. That game, which was the Rockets' home finale, saw them come back from a 21-point deficit in the 4Q to tie things up at 28-28. But it was not to be as they lost on a last second FG. Despite snow, the game featured over 900 yards of total offense. Don't think we'll be seeing that again here. Buffalo's loss LW dropped them to 7-4 SU in weekday games under Leipold. Technically, Toledo is still alive to win the MAC West while Buffalo can't win the East (Miami has clinched). A case can be made that both teams' games last week could easily have stayed Under. The Buffalo defense played very well through three quarters against Kent State and it wasn't really their fault they lost the game. Two of Buffalo's 4Q TD's came after an onside kick and a blocked punt. The Bulls defense allowed less than 300 total yds in the game, which is par for the course as they are allowing just 273.5 YPG in conference play. Toledo's offense had only 7 points entering the 4Q last week and they've scored just 21 pts total their L2 road games. 10* Under Toledo/Buffalo | |||||||
11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 55 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois (7:30 ET): You know how this goes. Northern Illinois has gone Over in each of its last five games, so we're going to go the other way. After seeing totals mostly in the 40's, last Wednesday the Huskies did go Over 55.5 in a 31-28 win over Toledo. But, of note, is the fact they held the Rockets to just 7 points in the first three quarters. By winning that game, NIU kept alive its chances of becoming bowl eligible (currently 4-6 SU) and now they must win their final two games, both of which are at home where they are allowing just 12.3 PPG on the year. This is the second straight Tuesday game for Eastern Michigan. One week ago, the Eagles scored a season-high 42 points in a victory, but that came at the expense of winless Akron. It'll be a much tougher defense that EMU is facing this week. The Eagles are on a 3-game Over streak of their own heading into this contest, but like Northern Illinois, the O/U lines have generally been lower. Tonight's visitors are 3-1-1 to the Under this season with a total of 54.5 pts or higher. Last week was just the third time all season that NIU has scored more than 24 points. A lot has been written this year about this not being the same caliber of Northern Illinois football that we are used to seeing. That's true, but it's also fair to point out that Huskies have gotten to play only three games in DeKalb! Getting these last two at home is huge for their bowl prospects. I mentioned earlier that the Huskies are allowing only 12.3 PPG here and while a lot of that has to do w/ the fact two of the games were against Akron (shutout) and a FCS school (Illinois State), they did hold Ball State to just 269 total yards in a 27-20 loss back on Oct 5. Eastern Michigan also needs a win to become bowl eligible, so they won't be run over here. Incredibly, the last three head to head meetings have all gone to OT. Yet none of the three games have seen more than 57 total pts scored and last year's 26-23 NIU win went to THREE overtimes! 10* Under Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois | |||||||
11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (8:15 ET): The Chiefs have owned the Chargers in recent seasons, winning 9 of the previous 10 head to head meetings. The one loss occurred the last time they met, Week 15 of last year when Los Angeles prevailed 29-28. But the Bolts were also a much better team last year. They wound up winning 12 games, the same number as KC. Like LA, the Chiefs come into this game somewhat desperate for a win as they have lost four of six, including Patrick Mahomes return from injury a week ago at Tennessee. The call is Over here as this should be a high-scoring game. While they aren't scoring as many points as last year (not surprising), there's nothing wrong w/ the Chiefs' offense. They've averaged 29.2 points in the games Mahomes has started. In his return last week, Mahomes threw for 433 yards in a losing effort. But the reason the team lost that game to the Titans is a defense that remains pretty awful. Last week marked the third time in five games that the Chiefs allowed 30+ points. They are also 31st in the league against the run, giving up 149 YPG. There's a reason the L3 Kansas City games have all gone Over. With QB Philip Rivers leading the NFL in passing yardage (2,816) and RB Melvin Gordon off his 1st 100+ yard rushing game of the season, the Chargers have the horses necessary to take advantage of the Chiefs' poor defense. The two meetings LY saw 57 and 66 total pts scored. This game will be played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. A questionable playing surface will make life hell for defenders in coverage. In addition to winning by fading KC last week, I also had the Over in the Chargers' 26-24 loss to the Raiders. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers | |||||||
11-17-19 | Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): Yes, I'm backing Cincinnati this week, the same team that just got beat 49-13 last week and is now 0-9 SU on the season. Going back to the end of last season, the Bengals have lost their last 11 regular season games. There is some merit in taking this team in this spot, but make no mistake about it - this play is more about fading the Raiders, who are laying double digits. Yes, the Raiders are laying double digits to an actual NFL team. That's happened just one time since Week 2 of the 2003 season! Obviously, you should take the points here. Things escalated quickly for the Bengals last week against Baltimore as they basically let Lamar Jackson run wild. However, there were some fluke things that happened along the way that contributed to the game getting so out of hand. QB Ryan Finley, making his first career NFL start, had two turnovers returned for touchdowns. Turnovers aside, I actually thought Finley didn't play all that poorly. The Bengals weren't outgained that severely and actually ended up w/ one more first down than the Ravens. All the big plays went Baltimore's way, but that's not who Cincy is facing this week. Instead, they are facing a team that has yet to win a game by more than eight points in 2019. Somehow, someway, Jon Gruden has constructed a playoff contender out in Oakland. What a way to go out as the franchise is set to move to Las Vegas next season. But even though they are playoff contenders, the Raiders have still been outscored by 32 points, a worse margin than the 3-6 Broncos. They've not only been outscored, but also outgained this year. Last Thursday vs. the Chargers, they won largely because of a +3 turnover margin, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. They finished w/ eight fewer first downs than the Chargers. Over the L3 seasons, the Raiders are not only 0-3 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins, they are 0-3 SU as well. Add it up and this is one of the weakest DD favorites in recent memory. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs +6 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 10 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): When I chose Atlanta as our top NFL side for last week, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons could win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing of all is just how dominant a SU victory it ended up being. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. After taking a loss like that, the Saints will be expected to bounce back this week. I'm here to tell you "not so fast." In fact, you should once again take the points against them. There are some real issues w/ this Saints' offense right now. In nine games this season, they have scored a grand total of 25 first quarter points. Sunday marked the 4th game this season the offense failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. That's some pretty shocking stuff. Furthermore, despite having a 7-2 SU record, this has been far from a dominant team. Five of the Saints' seven victories this year have been by 7 pts or less. They only have a +22 YTD point differential and are only outscoring opponent by 2.5 PPG. This week will actually mark the 1st time all season that New Orleans has been a road favorite! Conversely, Tampa Bay is a team that's played much better than its 3-6 SU record would seem to suggest. They have actually outgained their opponents over the course of the year. Looking at their six losses, four have been by 7 pts or less. One was in New Orleans, 31-24, back in Week 5. That was the second of B2B road games for the Bucs, who were coming off a shocking 55-40 drubbing of the Rams in LA. We know this team can score as LW's 30-27 win over Arizona marked the 5th time this season TB has scored 30+ pts. That's the same number as the Saints. The Bucs are only being outscored by 2.1 PPG this season. Being able to finally win a close game last week I think will give the Bucs some much needed confidence going into this game. Keep in mind that this game is outdoors where the Saints traditionally don't fare as well. After six straight ATS losses, it's time for the Bucs to finish "in the money" and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
11-17-19 | Jets v. Redskins OVER 37.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 9 m | Show |
10* Over Jets/Redskins (1:00 ET): The Jets finally woke up last week and scored a season-high 34 points in a rare win (just 2nd of the year), beating the Giants. Speaking of rare, the Redskins didn't lose last week. But that's only because they were on a bye. This is probably the league's ugliest game on paper since each team played Miami. Interestingly, Washington won their game in Miami (17-16) while the Jets lost theirs (26-18). But that doesn't mean as much when you consider the Skins suffered a 24-3 loss to the same Giants team that the Jets just beat. Bottom line is I'm expecting a higher scoring game than usual for these two teams. Take the Over. Were the Jets to match last week's point total, then they'd be on the cusp of sending this one Over by themselves. Now expecting the Jets to score 34 points again seems a bit foolish. After all, last week was easily a season-high and just the second time they've topped 20 pts in a game all year! But this porous Redskins' defense may allow for something close to what we saw last week. While Washington's defensive numbers have gotten better as the season has worn on, they still allow a 72.5% completion percentage and 5.7 yards per play. They've gone against some weaker offenses recently and also played in a heavy downpour vs. San Francisco. I believe this will be one of the Jets' better offensive games of the year. They've scored 91 pts in the five games since Sam Darnold has been back, which may not sound like much, but it also includes getting shutout by New England. The big news coming out of D.C. this week is that rookie QB Dwayne Haskins will be starting the rest of the way. Might as well as Washington's offense hasn't done much all year. The last six games have seen them score a total of 45 points, a stretch where the Under is 6-0. And remember they scored 17 of those 45 points in the win over Miami. But coming off a bye, Haskins should be the most prepared he's been all year. Similar to the Jets, I'm calling for one of the Redskins' better offensive efforts this week. It's not like the Jets' defense is all that great. They allow 29.0 PPG on the road and have given up at least 26 pts in six of their last seven games. 10* Over Jets/Redskins | |||||||
11-16-19 | UCLA +21.5 v. Utah | Top | 3-49 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 22 m | Show |
10* UCLA (8:00 ET): Since suffering a Friday night loss at USC back in September, Utah has looked like one of the best teams in the entire country. They've gone 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 25.6 points per game. But I'll call for that streak to end this week (at least the ATS one) as they play host to a UCLA team that has clearly improved in Chip Kelly's second year at Westwood. If you remember, I was on the USC upset of Utah. While the Utes arguably outplayed the Trojans that night, it was still a loss. Here, it's a lot of points to lay in what could be a flat spot. UCLA has won three straight, all by double digits, and could actually move into a 1st place tie w/ the Utes were they to pull the outright upset Saturday night. Like Utah, they are coming off a bye. I actually think that favors the dog in this situation. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely here, the Bruins are definitely much better equipped to face the Utes than they've been in recent years. Their offense has run for 200+ yards in five straight games, so it will be interesting to see if Utah's top ranked run defense can slow that attack down. As dominant as Utah's winning streak looks, they actually trailed Washington by double digits two weeks ago and were still losing entering the 4th quarter. UCLA has lost three in a row to Utah, the last two each coming by 31 points. I'm sure that will be on the minds of the coaching staff and players as they take the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Bowl eligibility is also hanging in the balance for the Bruins. To get there, they've still got to win two more games. They'll be favored to beat Cal in the regular season finale at home. But they'll still need to win either here or next week against rival USC. Bottom line is I expect a strong effort from the Bruins here. They have covered four of six games as an underdog this year, winning three of them outright. Three of the past five games, the Bruins' defense has allowed 20 points or less and the last game saw them hold Colorado to a season-low 14. Take the points. 10* UCLA | |||||||
11-16-19 | Air Force -10 v. Colorado State | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 18 m | Show |
10* Air Force (7:00 ET): Air Force got an unexpected bye last week due to the tragic death of a New Mexico player. Originally, this week was set to conclude a brutal stretch of 10 games in 10 weeks for the Flyboys and be their sixth road trip during that time. So the bye, while coming under the worst of circumstances, probably couldn't have come at a better time. Colorado State is also off a bye, their second in four weeks. The surprising Rams have won three in a row and covered five of their last six, but they are not a team I happen to believe in. I'm going to lay the points. After four straight 7-6 seasons under Mike Bobo, Colorado State fell to 3-9 SU last year. They expected improvement in Fort Collins this year, but things did not look good early w/ a 1-5 SU start that included a 21-point loss to a Colorado team that Air Force beat on the road. Despite winning their last three games, let's not lose sight of the fact CSU has won only one game all year in which it was an underdog. That was an upset of Fresno State three weeks ago. The Rams have still been outscored on the year and a defense which has not been able to stop the AFA triple option in the past still remains a liability. After going 5-7 SU each of the last two years, Air Force has also improved in 2019. Only they've looked a lot more impressive in doing so. They've won four straight to get to 7-2 and have outscored opponents by 77 points during the win streak. I've had my finger on the pulse, taking them as a short favorite against Utah State (won 31-7) and then fading them as 16-pt chalk against Army (only won 17-13). Colorado State is clearly a much more favorable matchup than Army as the Falcons have beaten the Rams 12 of the last 15 tries, including each of the last three years where they've averaged 430.3 yards rushing per game! As alluded to above, CSU's run defense still isn't any good as they've still allowed 183.7 YPG over land during their 3-game win streak. On the other side of the ledger, the AFA defense ranks 9th nationally at stopping the run (97 YPG allowed) and Colorado State lost its leading rusher to a suspension. 10* Air Force | |||||||
11-16-19 | Memphis v. Houston UNDER 69.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 47 m | Show |
8* Under Memphis/Houston (3:30 ET): If Memphis wins out, then they are going to be the Group of Five team that goes to the Cotton Bowl. I talked about that possibility when I took them all the way back in Week 1 vs. Ole Miss. The Tigers won that game against Rebels 15-10. But since then, they've scored 35 or more in every win (held to 28 in loss to Temple) w/ the last six games all going Over. We havent seen the Tigers since that epic 54-48 win over SMU two weeks ago. Off a bye, I'm looking for a little less scoring. Take the Under. Houston's last two games have both gone Under by the tightest of margins. It was a 34-31 loss to SMU w/ a total of 66. Then it was a 44-29 loss at UCF where the total was 73.5. Still that proves they can go Under a high total when matched up against one of these elite AAC offenses. Remember that it's been a tumultuous 1st year for HC Dana Holgorsen. His star QB and WR both decided to redshirt midseason. It's a testament to his system that the offense has been able to score as much as they have. But, for the record, the Cougars have averaged just under 27 PPG the L4 weeks. Both teams are off a bye, so the offenses could come out a little rusty. Memphis will obviously find a way to score its fair share of points, but I'm also looking for them to play better defensively than they have in the last two games. In five of their first seven games, the Tigers allowed 24 points or less. My sense is they'll get back closer to that number here. Under Mike Norvell, the Memphis' offense has had its way with the Houston defense. But in their last home game, the Cougars did slow down an SMU offense that was averaging over 45 PPG. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times these teams have played in Houston. 8* Under Memphis/Houston | |||||||
11-16-19 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 90 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt (3:30 ET): While - on paper - this looks like a REAL ugly matchup out of the SEC, remember games are not played on paper. I anticipate it being a higher scoring game than anticipated. Last week, I took the Over w/ Vanderbilt. Even though they didn't score a single point, I still cashed a winning ticket! They gave up 56 points to Florida in a loss that guaranteed the Commodores won't be going bowling in Derrick Mason's 6th year here in Nashville. I have to wonder about the psyche of a defense following a loss like that. Take the Over again. Kentucky's offense has hardly been pretty this year. The Wildcats managed just 13 points last week as they lost outright as 3-pt home favorites to Tennessee (17-13). It was the sixth straight UK game to go Under the total. When they're on the road, the offensive numbers get quite dreadful as the Wildcats have put up 0, 13 and 7 points in their three games outside of Lexington this year. Ouch! But before losing to Tennessee, the Wildcats had put up 29 points (in an upset of Missouri) and I believe this offense is capable of much more w/ Lynn Bowden at the helm. They've run for 600 yards the L2 games despite a non-existent passing attack. UK will move the ball effectively this week. This game reminds me a lot of the Over play I had on South Alabama-Texas State last week. That too was a matchup of two putrid offensive teams (even worse than these two) that had nothing to play for. The game ended up being a 30-28 final and went Over midway in the third quarter. Kentucky did score 13 points in the 1st quarter last week before being shutout the rest of the way. But despite getting shutout in those final three quarters, the Wildcats had FIVE drives of at least 35 yds. Zero points on drives totaling 175+ yards is almost unheard-of inefficiency This Vandy offense did score 38 earlier this season on LSU, so there's hope for them too. We don't need many points here in what will be the lowest O/U line for either team this season . 8* Over Kentucky/Vanderbilt | |||||||
11-16-19 | Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 58 | Top | 45-44 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State (3:30 ET): Central Michigan is not only coming off a bye week, but also five straight Overs. Key to that run though is that three of the five games took place in Mt. Pleasant where they average an impressive 43.0 PPG. In those three recent home games, the Chippewas scored 42 or more points. But this week will be a road game (in Muncie, IN) and on the road the Chips are averaging just 17.0 PPG, a massive decline. I like this game to go Under. Ball State was looking like it was having a breakthough season. Going into the final weekend of October, they were the only team MAC team w/o a conference loss. But now they've lost two in a row, 34-21 at home to Ohio and 35-31 at Western Michigan. That last game was played on a Tuesday and I cashed the Over. Interesting that they were facing a team that had gone Under in five straight. Now it's a team that's gone Over in five straight games. The Cardinals do average plenty of points here in Muncie, but I'm looking for some defensive improvement from them this week as well. This is the highest O/U line for any Central Michigan game since the last one that went Under (9.28 vs. Western Michigan). Something I'd like to point out w/ the Chippewas is that their defense has actually performed better than you think the L3 weeks. They've allowed just 323.7 YPG. These teams play every year and Ball State hasn't scored more than 24 points in any of the L4 meetings. The score was only 21-17 going into the 4Q last Tuesday vs. Western Michigan and only 28-24 w/ just over five minutes remaining. With the massive offensive decline CMU experiences on the road, Under is the right call here. 8* Under Central Michigan/Ball State | |||||||
11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri +7 | Top | 23-6 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
8* Missouri (12:00 ET): QB Kelly Bryant is set to return this week and that changes the whole dynamic for a Tigers team that has lost three in a row. All three of those losses, including 27-0 to Georgia last week, have been on the road. Clearly, without Bryant last week, they could get nothing going against one of the nation's top defenses. But now they are back in Columbia where they are a perfect 5-0 SU this season and have won every game by double digits! I'm not ready to give up on this team as last week was actually the 1st time all year that they were getting points! Florida has admittedly looked impressive this year as they are 8-2 SU (only losses are to LSU & Georgia). Coming off their own loss to Georgia (24-17), the Gators bounced back in a major way last week by shutting out Vandy 56-0. That was a game where I had the Over and the Gators did all the work themselves in punching me a winning ticket. But they were only up 14-0 at halftime before exploding for 28-point 3Q that included a defensive TD. Coming into the year, I did NOT expect this Gators team to match LY's 10-win total. I think the final two regular season games are going to be tricky. Unless UGA loses its next two (unlikely), then the Gators have nothing to play for (can't win division). That makes them prime fade material in my opinion. Bryant and the home field edge are both huge factors in handicapping this game, but there is even more evidence to support a play on the underdog this week. Missouri has beaten Florida the L2 years by a combined 50 points and has won four of the six games as SEC rivals. Also, the Tigers have the SEC's #1 pass defense (147.7 YPG allowed) and that's key going against one-dimensional Florida offense that can't really run the ball. With Bryant in at QB, this team was once 5-1 and ranked in the Top 25. Really, every Tigers loss this year (besides last week) is pretty head-scratching. Take the points. 8* Missouri |
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