Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +3.5 over Baltimore - Sunday at 9:30 AM ET This game is being played in London and the Jags are very accustomed to this situation and setting. This will be the 5th straight year they’ve played in London. They have won each of the last two season’s here in London. Baltimore has never played here. That’s a big advantage to the Jags. Baltimore’s defense has looked great the first two weeks but let’s remember the offenses they have faced – Cincinnati and Cleveland. The Bengals haven’t scored a single TD yet this year while the Browns played most of last weeks’ game vs the Ravens without starting QB Kizer. It’s not an ideal situation for Baltimore either playing in this one off back to back big division games. Jacksonville is 1-1 and has played the much tougher opponents thus far beating Houston on the road and then losing at home to Tennessee last week. Despite playing a much tougher slate through 2 games, the Jags actually have the better overall numbers. They are averaging 4.9 YPP to 4.7 for Baltimore. Surprisingly Jacksonville is also better defensively allowing only 4.5 YPP to Baltimore’s 4.9. The Jaguars have played this Raven team very tough in recent years as well beating them two years ago and then losing 19-17 last year on a 54 yards Baltimore FG with just 1:00 minute remaining the game. We think this one stays tight throughout and the Birds are exposed as being an overrated 2-0 team. Jags get the win here. | |||||||
09-23-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
TOP PLAY ON: 10* NOTRE DAME (-) over Michigan State, 8 PM ET - Michigan State will be a popular choice here but that's because the Spartans went 36-5 from 2013 to 2015 and many still have that ingrained in their memory banks. This Michigan State team is nothing like those. Not only did the Spartans go just 3-9 last season, they only returned 9 starters for that season. Now, this season, they returned just 8 starters! As you can see this team is now a shell of what is was in the 2015 season when it faced Alabama in the playoffs. More than half of the starts last season were made by seniors so there is a lot of rebuilding for the Spartans to do this year and that "rebuilding" truly hasn't begun yet. Michigan State has only faced 2 MAC team so far this season and then had a bye week. This is completely unlike the "tests" that Notre Dame has already faced. The Fighting Irish faced Georgia (and lost a tight game to that tough SEC foe) and then faced a very tough defense last week at Boston College. The loss to the Bulldogs will help Notre Dame in the long run. Losses build character and they fought hard with Georgia. Then last week against the vaunted Eagles defense, the Irish absolutely wore them down as they pulled away as the game went on and Notre Dame piled up over 600 yards in the win. By the way, the Fighting Irish also totaled over 600 yards in their week 1 win over Temple. This is a dangerous offense and Michigan State allowed 28 points per game last season. In fact, not including a game against Furman (FCS team) and Rutgers (horrible excuse for a Big Ten team), the Spartans allowed an average of 31.8 points per game. This defense is a far cry from what it used to be but they just haven't been tested yet this season as they've faced a pair of MAC teams. Even more concerning for Michigan State is that they lost the turnover battle 5-2 in those 2 games (versus Bowling Green and Western Michigan). Notre Dame is on a mission this season and they're looking to avenge last season's home loss to the Spartans. The Fighting Irish return the favor here by winning at East Lansing. When playing with revenge and coming off of a straight-up win, Notre Dame is a perfect 5-0 ATS! This is a big revenge spot for Notre Dame and a solid spot to bet them as a very small road favorite. | |||||||
09-22-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - New York Mets vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:10 PM ET | |||||||
09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39.5 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 39.5 Points - LA Rams @ San Francisco, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Rams offense is obviously much improved over last season when they averaged only 14 PPG. This year they have scored 46 & 20 in their two match ups vs Indy & Washington. They are averaging over 6 yards per play on the season. They should be able to put up solid numbers tonight vs a SF defense that finished dead last in the NFL in scoring defense last year allowing 30 PPG. This year the Niners have allowed 35 points in their first two games which is respectable, but let’s not forget who they’ve played. Carolina scored 23 points on this defense in the opener and to be honest, the Panther offense looks pretty pedestrian this year. The came back on put up only 9 points last week vs Buffalo. SF also looked solid against a Seattle offense that is in disarray having scored only 21 total points this season. The Rams should fare better than both of those teams vs this defense. We get the Niner offense has looked bad against Carolina and Seattle. Again, let’s take the competition into account here. Seattle will absolutely have one of the top defenses in the NFL this year and Carolina has allowed 6 total points in 2 games. We’ll get a better gauge on SF’s offense tonight and we think they’ll look much better. The Rams defense shutdown a terrible Indy offense in week one with Scott Tolzien at QB. Last week the Skins lit them up pretty good with 27 points which is probably a better indicator of where the Ram defense is (probably middle of the pack type defense). This number is set too low as we look for both offenses to hit at least 20 tonight. Take the OVER. | |||||||
09-19-17 | A's v. Tigers OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A's, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET | |||||||
09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 42 Points - Detroit @ NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET We expect a defensive battle in this one. The Giants have one of the top defenses in the NFL finishing 4th in the NFL last year allowing just 18.9 PPG. Last week vs a potent Dallas offense the allowed just 19 points despite facing 71 offensive plays. The NYG offense? That’s another story. They scored only 3 points and they were held to only 4.4 yards per play vs a Dallas defense that is definitely not elite. We’re not talking about a one game offensive problem for the G-Men as they have now been held to 20 points or fewer in 10 straight games dating back to last season. We don’t expect them to go off this week vs a Detroit defense that held Arizona to 16 offensive points on 4.6 yards per play last week. Detroit put up 35 points last week but that was rather deceiving. They had only 9 points at half and scored 2 TD’s in a 10 second span with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. One of those was a defensive TD. When thinking about Detroit’s offense many still view them as a high scoring team. That is simply not the case anymore as this team finished 22nd, 17th, and 22nd in scoring over the last 3 seasons. UNDER is the play on Monday night. | |||||||
09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This line was set knowing the overreaction would come in regards to the Rams 46-7 drubbing of the Colts last week. The Rams were favored by -3.5 in that game vs a team without their QB that might be the worst in the NFL. Now they are laying basically the same number to a Washington team that was in the playoffs last year? Value on Washington here. Let’s please not anoint the Rams some fantastic offense after week one. Remember this team was dead last in scoring in the NFL last year averaging just 14 PPG. While we expect QB Jared Goff to improve he’s not going to all of the sudden light up NFL defenses every week. Goff is now 1-7 as a starter. The Skins played pretty well defensively last week however on offense they struggled to say the least. Four turnovers didn’t help their cause. Keep in mind this Redskin offense was very good last year finishing 3rd in the NFL in total yardage at 403 YPG. We expect a much better performance this week with extra motivation off a shaky effort. The Rams are not used to being in the position of a favorite. In fact, they’ve been favored just 26 times since 2011 and they’ve LOST 16 of those games outright. Washington is the play here. | |||||||
09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee pick-em over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Tennessee comes into this game with an 0-1 record while Jacksonville is 1-0. This is a huge game for a Tennessee team that has playoff aspirations and fell just short of the post-season last year. They cannot afford an 0-2 start. Despite their 26-16 loss last week to a very good Oakland team, the stats say the two teams played an even game. One first down and nine total yards separated the two teams. The time of possession was almost even as well. The Titans had opportunities to put more points on the board but settled for FG’s twice inside the Oakland 8 yard line and also missed a FG attempt. We expect this offense to bust out this week vs the Jags. The Jacksonville defense looked great last week but keep in mind that was against a terrible Houston offense with one of the weakest QB situations in the league. The Texans are also working with a poor offensive line. Now they face a Tennessee team with an up and coming QB in Marcus Mariota and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Jags offense put up 29 points last week but was nothing special. They had only 280 total yards (4.7 YPP) and ran the ball nearly twice as much as they threw it (21 passes to 39 rushing attempts) in order to make sure mistake prone Blake Bortels did screw up the game for them. We anticipate them having to play from behind here which will take away that type of game plan. On top of that, the Jags didn’t get home from last week’s game until Tuesday afternoon due to Hurricane Irma. Their players had a distracting short week of practice having deal with the Hurricanes aftermath. Jacksonville is just 14-26-1 ATS the game following a SU win and Tennessee rolls here. | |||||||
09-17-17 | Bills +7 v. Panthers | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We think this is a bit of an underrated team vs an overrated team after week one. Just looking that final score might tell us that Buffalo struggled a bit with the Jets last week winning 21-12. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The Bills dominated the game outgaining the Jets by nearly 200 yards. The yards per play differential was huge with Buffalo averaging 7.3 and the Jets just 4.4. This game final score should have been much more lopsided. Carolina beat a terrible SF team 23-3. Offensively the Panthers looked bad. They had only 287 total yards in the game on 4.6 YPP. Cam Newton, who only played on series the entire pre-season due to a shoulder problem, wasn’t overly sharp vs a Niner defense that ranked dead last in the NFL a season ago in YPG and PPG allowed. The game turned out to be an easy win because the Niners offense is putrid. Now they face a Buffalo offense that has a mobile threat at QB and one of the top RB’s in the league. Also you can bet Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott will put a little extra emphasis on this one after coming over from Carolina last year (defensive coordinator @ Carolina). He also has a pretty good idea of how to slow down this Panther offense. Carolina plays host to AFC South rival New Orleans next week so the intensity factor probably favors Buffalo here. While Carolina is laying a full TD in this one, let’s not forget this team was 6-10 last year! Too many points here and we grab Buffalo. | |||||||
09-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Minnesota -9 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
#134 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota (-) over Middle Tennessee, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Golden Gophers head coach PJ Fleck is winning at Minnesota just like he was at Western Michigan! In fact he now has a regular season winning streak of 15 straight games! All but 1 of those 15 games was a lined game. Fleck's ATS record in the 14 lined games is 10-4 / 71% ATS! Look for Fleck to make it 16 straight regular season wins here while also improving that ATS run to 11-4. The Golden Gophers have a bye week on deck so there will be no holding back this week. Minnesota is coming off of a blowout win at Oregon State and their ground game really got rolling against the Beavers. The Golden Gophers are now averaging 211 rushing yards per game on the young season and, on Saturday, they are hosting a Middle Tennessee State team that is averaging only 71.5 rushing yards per game. That certainly could be an issue for the Blue Raiders as their QB is banged up. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill is a key player but even if he plays this week he is unlikely to be 100% and with struggling to move the ball on the ground or through the air it will most certainly be a rough afternoon for Middle Tennessee. The Minnesota defense has been fantastic so far this season as they have held opponents to just 243.5 yards per game. The Golden Gophers are catching MTSU off of an upset win as a big road dog at Syracuse. That makes this a very tough spot for the Blue Raiders. The past 4 seasons Middle Tennessee had back to back games away from a home a total of 6 times. They NEVER covered both games any of those 6 times! With that said, coming off of the big cover against the Orange, look for the Blue Raiders to fall flat against the Golden Gophers! Lay the big points with Minnesota as this is an ideal spot for a home rout blowout! | |||||||
09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 38 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
We will PLAY OVER 38 in the Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals game Thursday evening. The number set on this game is 38, which by NFL standards is extremely low. In 2015 the average total points scored per game in the NFL was 44.8. Last year that number rose to 45.8 average PPG. Cincinnati totaled more than 38 points in 11 of 16 games last year, Houston 38+ in 10 of 17 and 4 of their last 5. They only scored 22 when they met last year but I'm banking on both offenses being much better this week after their horrible showings in Week #1. Combined these two teams had 9 turnovers in the first week of the season and several of those were in the Red Zone which would have led to more scoring. These two teams averaged less than 1.5 turnovers per game in 2016 so expect a return to normal this week. The oddsmakers are expecting the public to over-react to the Week #1 results but we won't be suckered into that train of thought. The predictive analytics on this game suggest a Total of 42 points. BET OVER! | |||||||
09-12-17 | Mets v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) over New York Mets, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET | |||||||
09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over Denver, Monday at 10:20 PM ET One thing we like looking for is a big edge at QB and that QB’s team is a dog. That’s what we have here. San Diego’s (just can’t get used to saying LA quite yet) Philip Rivers has had a fantastic NFL career and is one of the top signal callers in the NFL. Denver’s Trevor Siemian, not so much. While he played OK last year for Denver, he completed less than 60% of his passes. Also the big plays were lacking as Denver was 22nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at just 6.5. We give San Diego a solid edge offensively with Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, and an improved offensive line. Defensively there is not as wide a gap as some might think. While Denver has a very good defense, keep in mind the Chargers D was 7th in the NFL in efficiency last year. DE’s Joey Bosa & Melvin Ingram provide one of the top pass rushing duo’s in the league. We also have a strong situational spot here as the Chargers are THE BEST road underdog since the start of the 2004 season with a ATS record of 42-18-3! Denver, on the other hand, has been a bad home favorite with a spread record of 25-44-2 ATS (36%) since 2006. We like the Bolts to pull the “upset” on Monday night. Not much of an upset in our opinion. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants match up very well with Dallas. Their defense, which was ranked 2nd in the NFL in efficiency last year, has shut down this high powered Cowboy offense. In fact, Dallas who had only 3 losses in the regular season last year, lost both games to the Giants. In those two games Dallas averaged just 13 PPG and 294 YPG. The Dallas offense carried this team last year while the defense was poor. If the offense is able to be slowed down, as the Giants did, this team is in trouble. We expect the Giant defense to be one of the best in the NFL again this year and we also look for their offense to be vastly improved. While Odell Beckham might have to sit this game due to an injury, remember NY added WR Brandon Marshall in the off-season which will really help. Eli is one of the top veteran QB’s in the NFL while we look for Dak Prescott to take a step back this year. It’s going to be almost impossible for Prescott to be as efficient as he was last season. The Boys are historically are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL. In fact since 2010 they ARE the worst home chalk in the NFL with a spread record of 12-30 (just 28%). On the other hand, since 2006, the Giants have the 2nd best ATS road record in the entire NFL at 53-37-3. Only the Patriots are better. We like New York to win this game outright so we’ll grab the points! | |||||||
09-10-17 | Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 47.5 in the Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers game. Much has been made of the 49ers new head coach Kyle Shanahan and his offensive genius being brought in from Atlanta, but last time we checked he didn't bring Matt Ryan, Julio Jones or Devonte Freeman with him. This talent shy 49ers roster was 23rd in offensive efficiency ratings last year and averaged just 19.3PPG. The Panthers were the league average in terms of scoring at 23.1PPG and barely above league average in Yards Per Points at 14.9 (league ave 15YPPT). It's not like both teams had a ton of opportunities to score either as the Panthers ranked 22nd in the league in Red Zone scoring attempts per game at 3.1 while the Niners were 28th at 2.8. We also like the fact that both teams want to run the football (Atlanta was 12th in rush attempts last year with Shanahan as OC). The Panthers have a new featured back in rookie McCaffrey while the 49ers best offensive weapon a year ago was RB Hyde. Last season the Panthers ranked 7th in rushing attempts per game while San Fran was 6th. More running, less passing means a much shorter game, and again, this number is currently HIGHER than last year's scoring average per game. Last year's contest between these two was high scoring but don't expect similar results here. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +7 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We expect Atlanta to take a step back this year. Their offensive numbers (34 PPG) is bound to take a step back. The previous 3 years before last season this offense average 22, 23, and 21 PPG. They also lost their offensive coordinator Shanahan which will be a factor. The Falcon defense was not good last year ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency. It was a huge problem because they scored so many points. This year we see their defense costing them many more games. This is not a one year situation as this defense was 26th last year, 22nd in 2015, and 32nd in 2014 (defensive efficiency). They will be bad again this year. We’re hearing Chicago is very excited about their defense. They had some key injuries on that side of the ball last year which hurt their production. QB Mike Glennon, while not great, will be a much better option than turnover prone Jay Cutler. It may be tough Atlanta to rebound after blowing their huge lead in the Super Bowl last season. In fact, teams that lose the Super Bowl are 2-12 ATS in their opener the following year. If that opener is on the road, those numbers drop to 2-15 ATS. We think Chicago is a bit undervalued and Atlanta is definitely overvalued. The Bears will give them a run here and have a great chance to pull the upset. Take the points. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Steelers -8.5 v. Browns | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -8.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We hate putting ourselves on the side of the public, with a road favorite but this is one of those rare occasions we'll have to bite. Last year we made this same wager and won with the Steelers (24-9) laying 8-points in Cleveland. The Steelers will once again have a potent offense with the 3-headed monster of QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell and WR Brown and could improve upon their 7th overall offensive efficiency rankings from 2016. Pittsburgh had an average point differential of +3.8PPG last season which was the 5th best number in the NFL. Defensively the Steelers weren't the Steel Curtain of the 70's but they were still solid with the 11th best overall defensive efficiency ranking. Pittsburgh allowed 16 or less points in 7 of their sixteen regular season games a year ago. The Browns will be starting a rookie quarterback in DeShone Kizer who's in for a long day against a Steelers D that was 9th in the NFL in sack % a year ago. Cleveland was bad on both sides of the football last year and don't look to be any better. In terms of OEFF and DEFF the Browns were 30th and 29th respectively in both categories and they had the worst overall point differential in the league at minus -11.8PPG. At home the Browns lost by an average of -11.5PPG. Pittsburgh has dominated this series with a 30-4 SU record the last 34 meetings and Roethlisberger is 20-2 SU lifetime. Cleveland is a horrendous 10-44 SU their last 54 versus AFC North. We'll lay the big number here. | |||||||
09-09-17 | Boise State v. Washington State -10 | Top | 44-47 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 39 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Boise State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #400 | |||||||
09-07-17 | Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
PLAY ON: KC CHIEFS (+9.5) over New England, Thur 8:30PM ET - We will grab the points with Kansas City over New England on Thursday night. The line on this game opened around -7 and has quickly risen to minus 9 and even some minus 10 for New England at some Sports books. We like the value with a Chiefs team that finished last season at 12-5 and are coming off an upset home playoff loss to the Steelers. KC had a +4.5 average point differential last season overall and was just one of eight teams in the NFL to have a positive road differential. 4 of their five losses last season came by a combined 13-points and they won 6 straight road contests in the back half of their campaign in 2016-17. We totally understand the public money flowing in on New England as they are off last season's dramatic Super Bowl win, and let's face it, they are the Patriots. New England had a +12.3 average point differential last year but a lot of that had to do with who they played. The Jets and Bills twice, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens...NONE of which had a winning record. In fact, those teams had a combined record of 40-86-2 or 32% winning percentage. Yes, New England has a very strong home ATS record but the Chiefs are no slouch with a 12-6 ATS mark their last 18 away from home. Based on last season's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings this game will be closer than the number indicates! | |||||||
09-06-17 | Nationals -126 v. Marlins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Nationals Money Line (-) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET | |||||||
08-30-17 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET | |||||||
08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET | |||||||
08-20-17 | Nationals -108 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Nationals Money Line (-) over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET | |||||||
08-16-17 | Diamondbacks +138 v. Astros | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line (+) over Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET | |||||||
08-13-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 101 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET | |||||||
08-09-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET | |||||||
08-05-17 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET | |||||||
08-01-17 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET | |||||||
07-28-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -125 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 8:15 PM ET | |||||||
07-25-17 | Rockies v. Cardinals -122 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET | |||||||
07-21-17 | A's v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
TOP 10* OVER in New York Mets vs Oakland Athletics at 7:10 ET - Sure the total looks "big" on this game but that is because the situation demands it. Even though this inter-league game is being played in an NL park (so there will be no DH), both of these starting pitchers are likely to get rocked. The Mets Steven Matz simply isn't "right" as the southpaw has given up 12 earned runs in only 5 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. The Athletics Paul Blackburn shows great numbers in terms of his ERA over his first 3 starts this season. However, Blackburn had command issues in his most recent start and walked 4 batters. Also, in his prior start he did give up 8 hits while not recording a single strikeout. The point is that Blackburn shows a 1.83 ERA to the betting markets but he truly has not pitched nearly as impressively as that ERA would lead to believe. While the Mets are only 4-3 in their last 7 games they have averaged scoring 8 runs per game in those 4 victories. The A's were off yesterday but they are on a solid 4-2 run that has seen them score at least 5 runs in all 4 victories. Don't be surprised if both teams have big games at the plate here. Oakland's bullpen has a 5.68 ERA on the road this season and the Mets bullpen has an overall 4.98 ERA on the season. We look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Blackburn's last 3 starts and 3-0 in Matz's home starts on the season. Also, the over is an amazing 42-15 in Mets night games this season. The over is on a 62-43 run in Oakland's games against left-handed starters. Grab the OVER in this one in early Friday evening action. | |||||||
07-18-17 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 8:15 PM ET | |||||||
07-15-17 | Dodgers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET | |||||||
07-08-17 | Royals v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET | |||||||
07-05-17 | Royals +117 v. Mariners | Top | 9-6 | Win | 117 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Royals Money Line (+) over Seattle Mariners, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET | |||||||
07-01-17 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 11 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET | |||||||
06-28-17 | Rangers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER the Total - Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET | |||||||
06-25-17 | A's v. White Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET | |||||||
06-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET | |||||||
06-17-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET | |||||||
06-15-17 | Yankees v. A's +105 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* on Oakland A's Money Line (+) over New York Yankees, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET | |||||||
06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We are going to play on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Game 5. Before the series started we predicted a Warriors sweep or win in 5 games and we'll stick with that thought process. The first two games were dominated by the Warriors at home with a total differential of plus + 41 points. Just because the Cavs won the last game in this series doesn't mean they've suddenly turned their 'defensive ship' around and can stop the Warriors here. GST had a +15.0 point differential at home during the regular season and are averaging +17.9PPG at home in the playoffs. Cleveland is allowing 1.11 points per possession in the Playoffs after allowing 1.104PPP during the regular season. In case you don't remember this from previous posts, that defensive efficiency rating of 1.104PPP ranked them in the bottom third of the NBA this season. I'm not going to be fooled by the Cavs win in the previous game as the stars aligned perfectly for them and they made shots (at home) and benefitted from 22 free throw attempts in the first quarter. FYI - the league record for most attempts in a quarter in NBA HISTORY is 32. Back at home the Warriors will shoot better as they averaged 50% shooting on their home court and allowed opponents to hit just 43%. Golden State perfect 7-0 SU at home off a loss this year and bounce back here to end the series. | |||||||
06-10-17 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET | |||||||
06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 228.5 in the Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Friday. Looking closely at Game 3 we see some indicators that suggest a lower scoring game even though that game went over the number. Combined in Game 3 the two teams attempted 173 field goals which is just 3 more than the league average of 170. The regular season average for total points scored in games was 211. Granted, these two teams make a lot of 3's which alters the baseline statistics but even with 28 made 3-pointers in the last game it still barely when over the number. The oddsmakers have been forced to adjust their number even higher for Game 4 which gives us more value with an UNDER wager. The Warrior games away from home this full season averaged 219PPG while the Cavalier home games averaged 218PPG. The math says under along with value. | |||||||
06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
We will play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at home over Golden State in Game 3 Wednesday, 8PM ET. The Warriors were obviously very good to us in the first two games of this series and we do have Golden State as our series bet but if there is one game the Cavs will win it's this one. Here's what we saw in our break down of Game 2. As the game wore on the Cavs started grabbing and holding the Warriors more and more, especially Steph Curry, and the officials swallowed their whistles. Last year, the Cavs big turning point is the series was when Dellavedova employed his 'mugging' mentality against Curry and held him to 22PPG in the Finals. On Wednesday night we expect Curry to essentially get assaulted by Cleveland and doubt the officials are going to call much. When you are watching the game pay close attention to the Warrior players OFF the ball and you'll see what I'm talking about. Yes, the Warriors were a fantastic road team this year with a 37-10 SU record, but the Cavs were 36-11 SU at home and are off two humiliating losses. Last year in a similar setting the Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 as a -1.5 point favorite. Based on the season long numbers the Cavs shouldn't be this big of an underdog here given these circumstances. In the past two season's the Cavs have produced a 25-5 SU (83%) record when playing at home and off a loss in their previous game. Cleveland has been the most efficient offense in the playoffs at home this season by averaging 1.213 points per possession and they have a home differential of +8.3PPG. LeBron will get every call imaginable tonight and the Cavs steal a game in the series. | |||||||
06-05-17 | Nationals +121 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 121 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* on Washington Nationals Money Line (+) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday at 10:10 PM ET | |||||||
06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 2 Sun, 8 ET - We will play ON the Golden State Warriors again minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2. This is going to sound eerily like our first writeup but our base analysis remains the same. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs, they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas. Defensively there is no comparison between these two teams, which was very apparent in Game 1, as the Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season, allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. The Cavs defense was thoroughly exposed in Game 1 and they can’t just ‘flip a switch’ and be great defensively in the playoffs. It just doesn’t work that way. Also, don't be fooled into thinking the Cavs are a great bet here getting points as they were just 5-1 1 as a dog this season. When coming off a loss this year the Cavs are also just a 50/50 proposition with an 8-8 SU record. Looking at the shot chart from Game 1 we see the outcome of that game could have been much worse as the Warriors missed 20-point point-blank shots in the lane and 30 overall for the game. When LeBron and the Cavs organization assembled this roster, they should have considered some defensive minded players. In last year’s Finals the Warriors won Game 1 big then came back and blew the Cavs out by 33 in Game 2. With an average point differential of plus +16.5PPG at home this year we like the Warriors chances to get another double digit win in Game 2. Lay the points. | |||||||
06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
You've already read everything possible on this series and have likely formed your own opinion on the series but we'll focus on Game 1 and the Total here. We will play OVER the Total here. At first glance the number on this game seems high but in reality it's not based on the regular season meeting here which had a Total of 227.5. That game was a blowout for the Warriors 126-91 which obviously stayed below the number. Golden State is coming off a series with the #1 ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA, San Antonio, in which they scored 113, 136, 120 and 129 points. They scored 115 or more points in two of four games against Utah who was 3rd in the NBA in DEFF. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.104 points per possession. The Cavs have also put up some monster numbers offensively in the post season, including an offensive efficiency rating of 122.6 which is #1 in the playoffs. The Cavs have put up 106 or more points in every post season game and scored 130 plus in two of their last four games. Golden State is playing faster in the post-season than they did in the regular season. Cleveland is playing slightly slower in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, but again, because of their efficiency ratings they are scoring 5+ points per game more. These two teams are going to score points here and it will be enough to top the Total set on Game 1. | |||||||
05-28-17 | Braves v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET | |||||||
05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 216 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
We have been a steady OVER player in the playoffs and it’s paid off handsomely thus far, but tonight the numbers dictate an UNDER wager on this game. It was painfully evident the Celtics want to slow the tempo as much as possible as they feel it’s the best way to beat Cleveland. It obviously worked for most of three quarters before Kyrie went insane and lifted the Cavs to a win. These two teams combined attempted just 153 field goal attempts which is WAY below the league average of 170. Cleveland shot a ridiculous 59.5% (again due to Kyrie going 15 of 22) which helped them get to 112 points. It’s unlikely that is going to happen again based on Cleveland’s season shooting percentage of 47.4%, and Boston’s FG% defense that allowed 45.3% on the year. In Boston’s case, we would expect similar numbers as Game 4 as they shot just below their season averages, but again are without their leading scorer in Isaiah Thomas. The tempo is the key here and it looks like Boston has committed to slowing the pace as much as possible. The UNDER is now 7-1 the last eight meetings between these two teams in Beantown. We’re betting UNDER! | |||||||
05-25-17 | Tigers v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET | |||||||
05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
ASA OVER 215 Boston @ Cleveland, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 4 Tuesday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 then the number dropped to 214 for Game 3 with the news that Isaiah Thomas was out for Boston. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs, are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their eleven playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER easily. In Game #3 the Cavs scored 108 points but only took 70 shots to get there and LeBron James had an abnormally low scoring game of just 11-points. Clearly James is going to put up points here as he's averaging over 32PPG in the post season. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Our Math Model projects 220 total points being scored here. | |||||||
05-23-17 | Penguins v. Senators +127 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 127 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ottawa Senators Money Line (+) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday @ 8 PM ET | |||||||
05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 3 Sunday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 but this number has dropped to the 214 range as of this posting. The drop is due to the Celtics Isaiah Thomas being out for the playoffs with a hip injury. Granted, Thomas is Boston’s leading scorer but in this game, we feel if the Celtics can get to 100 to 105 points this game goes over. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. On the other bench is the Cleveland Cavaliers who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs. The Cavs are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their ten playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Boston is on a 7-2 OVER streak when coming off a loss while Cleveland is 11-4 OVER their last fifteen off a win. The wager to make here is OVER! | |||||||
05-21-17 | Rockies -104 v. Reds | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* on Colorado Rockies Money Line (-) over Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET | |||||||
05-20-17 | White Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 16-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 8.5 in Seattle @ 10:10 ET - Mike Pelfrey remains winless on the season and things appear to be getting worse rather than better for the veteran righthander. Pelfrey has a 6.13 ERA in his last three starts and he has given up 3 homers in his last two outings. Pelfrey faced the Mariners one time last season and the results were not good as he got rocked for 6 earned runs on 12 hits (2 of them leaving the yard) in an outing that lasted only 5 innings. The Mariners have Yovani Gallardo toeing the rubber tonight in Seattle and he has decent numbers in his last 3 starts but walks and homers were an issue and plus he faced a bad Phillies team and the Rangers and A's (both clubs hitting only .236 on the season). While the White Sox bats do not have impressive numbers on the season, they had picked things up at the plate recently - at least prior to yesterday's 2-1 win. The Pale Hose had averaged 5.5 runs per game in their 8 games before yesterday's low-scoring win. The over is 9-4 this season in Seattle's home games that have had a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. There also is significance in the fact that last night's game between these teams stayed under the total. The White Sox have not had back to back unders since the first 3 days of this month. The Mariners have not recorded back to back unders since late April. Look for the bats from both clubs to respond tonight after last night's pitchers duel. Bet the OVER in Seattle Saturday night! | |||||||
05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
UNDER 214 in the Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Saturday, 9PM ET. You’re not going to like this bet but it’s the right one to make. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession. Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%. In the opener, these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average and should have produced less than 211 (league average) total points but didn’t. In Game 2 these same two teams combined for 189 FG attempts but it was a blowout from the start and the Warriors shot it at a ridiculous rate. Golden State was 50 of 89 from the field overall or 56.2% and made 18 of 37 3’s, both numbers substantially higher than their season averages. The Spurs 100 FG attempts were largely attributed to the fact they were getting blown out early and had to play catch up. When these two teams have met in San Antonio in the past the UNDER has cashed 6 of the last seven meetings. Plug your nose and bet under! | |||||||
05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) over the Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the last meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. The Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and held Boston to just 91 points. In Game 1 the Cavaliers dominated the Celtics and the final score was misleading as Cleveland lead by as many as 28-points in the game. What stands out is how “poorly” the Cavs shot from beyond the arc as they hit “just” 38.8% from 3. In the post season, they are shooting just under 43% from the 3-point line. Boston had decent numbers in Game 1 and were still blown out by this Cavs team that is on a mission. Cleveland is 9-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +17-point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. If there was a game Boston was going to win this series it’s this one but we’re not about to go against this Cleveland team right now. | |||||||
05-19-17 | Penguins -110 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (-) over Ottawa Senators, Friday @ 8 PM ET | |||||||
05-18-17 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Oakland A's vs Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 10:05 PM ET | |||||||
05-17-17 | Cavs -4 v. Celtics | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
We will play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 over the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. Boston is coming off that grueling 7-game series with Washington and have just 1-day rest. Cleveland meanwhile has been off since May 7th and comes into this game fresh. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the most recent meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. I went back and watched that game and what stood out to me, is how the Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and how they held Boston to just 91 points. There are some bad matchups in this game for the Celtics and the Cavs have had a ton of time to figure out the best way to exploit those advantages. Cleveland is 8-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +14.9 point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. Given the circumstances we will lay the points with Cleveland on the road here. We will play OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. | |||||||
05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 210 in the San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Tuesday, 9PM ET. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. In Game 1 the Spurs jumped all over the Warriors and seemed to be cruising to an easy victory. Then Kawhi Leonard was injured and it looked like the Alamo all over again for San Antonio. In Game 1 the Spurs had put up 76 points in 28 minutes with Leonard in the game. After he was hurt the Spurs offense really struggled and they managed just 35 points in 20 minutes without him. And let's not forget they don't have Tony Parker here either. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession. Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%. In the opener these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average. San Antonio knows that to have any chance at winning this game they HAVE to slow the tempo and might try to play 'Big Ball' with Gasol and Aldridge on the floor at the same time. The two most recent regular season meetings between these two powerhouses ended with 208 and 192 total points which would obviously cash tonight. Bet UNDER here! | |||||||
05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
OVER 211 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 7 Monday 8PM ET. We hit our last OVER bet in this series in Game 5 and will come right back with the same wager here. These two teams want to play fast and push the tempo on every possession. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th during the regular season. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs, Boston has been even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP while Washington is slightly less at 1.108PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.091PPP which would rank them 18th in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set right around league average. The first two games of the series in Boston these two teams finished with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. In Game 5 these two teams totaled 224 total points which could have been higher had it been a closer game throughout. Washington's defense is atrocious on the road all season long and there is no reason to expect a dramatic improvement tonight. Boston has shot over 51% in the three home games of this rivalry and should 'get buckets' again tonight. Bet OVER! | |||||||
05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -9.5 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Golden State -9.5 over San Antonio, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET We like a focused, rested and motivated Warriors team to get a big home win to open this series. Let's face it the Warriors haven't been tested but will be here so we'll get a max effort. Golden State had a home average point differential of +15.9PPG at home this year which was the best number in the NBA. In the playoffs at home that differential is +16PPG. They have won 7 of their 8 playoff games thus far by at least 10 points. Granted, the Spurs are better than the teams they've faced but San Antonio is coming off two very hard fought series against Memphis and Houston and are without Parker and a less than 100% Leonard. Golden State on the other hand is rested and ready to make a statement in game 1. The regular season meetings really don't tell us much as both teams rested players but the current situation clearly favors Golden State. Surprisingly, since the start of the 2015 season, 7 of the 9 meetings between these 2 have been decided by at least 10 points. We call for Golden State to keep that trend alive today. This line may seem high but is it? Just a few days ago San Antonio was an 8.5 point underdog @ Houston in Game 6. Now laying just one point more with the Warriors in a much better situation is hardly too many points. Lay in in Sunday with Golden State. | |||||||
05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Play OVER 216 in the Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards, Game 6 Friday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is great for OVER bettors and we don’t see these two teams slowing down tonight. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will play fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Four of the five games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points and the most recent meeting had 178 FG attempts (league average 170) which resulted in 224 total points. Of course, Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and for him to be most effective the Celtics have to play faster and with space so he can penetrate to score. In other words, Boston will not change their game strategy on the road even though Washington’s best asset offensively is playing fast too. Washington’s John Wall has had a fantastic playoff thus far and he’ll dictate a faster pace for the Wiz at home tonight in this elimination game. | |||||||
05-11-17 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 10:15 PM ET | |||||||
05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 213.5 | Top | 114-75 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
Play OVER 213.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets, 8:35PM ET Thursday – Houston is going to dictate tempo here at home and force the Spurs into a faster paced game. Houston was the second fastest paced team in the league at home which resulted in an average of 117PPG, also 2nd highest in the NBA. The Spurs preferred to play slow on the road but because they are so efficient (4th best on the road) they still managed to average 105PPG away from home. In three of the five games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 6. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3, 184 in Game 4 and 189 in Game 5 (granted OT). All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast-paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 5 of the last six meetings. BET OVER! | |||||||
05-10-17 | Tigers +123 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET | |||||||
05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
Play OVER 215 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 5 Wednesday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is fine with us as we'll take advantage with an OVER wager here. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Three of the four games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points with the first two games of the series in Boston finishing with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and scored 33 and 53 in the two games of this series in Boston. In the two games in Washington he managed just 13 and 19 points respectively. He'll get back on track here and help Boston put up points in Game 5. Washington and John Wall are going to get there share too. Easy call with OVER THE TOTAL! | |||||||
05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 213.5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Play OVER Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We are going contrarian here and not ‘zagging’ when most bettors will probably side with the UNDER here, but not us. In three of the four games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 5. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3 and 184 in Game 4. All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 6 of the last eight meetings between these two teams on this court. BET OVER! | |||||||
05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
We play OVER 206 in the Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz, 8PM ET Monday. Game 2 of this series went over rather easily and we predict a similar flow and output in Game 4 tonight. The results of Game 3 has provided us with value here on an over wager as these two teams produced just 193 points in the last meeting. They attempted 161 shots which is lower than the league average of 170 but let's not forget this number is essentially 3 baskets lower than the league average for total points scored per game (211). In Game 3 we had two abnormally bad shooting nights for both Steph Curry (6 of 20) and Klay Thompson (1 of 9) which clearly helped that game from being higher scoring. Those two combined were just 3 of 14 from beyond the arc which is unheard of. As a team the Warriors shot just 44% which is below their season average of 47.8% that they shoot on the road this year. The Warriors made just 9 of their 30 (30%) 3-point attempts too which is also lower than their season average of 35.8% away from home. As far as the Jazz are concerned they also had a poor shooting night as they were just 30 of 77 from the field or 39% which is DRASTICALLY lower than their season average of 46.8% at home. They also shot 31.8% from 3 which is lower than the 38.4% they shot all year long on their home court. This series has a strong under trend but we'll play contrarian and bet OVER here! **ASA NBA PICKS OVERALL 18-7 RUN, 11-4 L14 AND CURRENT 10-2 O/U STREAK! Get a long term package today and SAVE!** | |||||||
05-07-17 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
UNDER 212 in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors game, 3:30Pm ET. The pace of play numbers has dropped in every game of this series and we expect that trend to continue. In the opener, these two teams finished with 174 field goal attempts, Game 2 was 165 and then 163 in Game 3. Remember, the league average for FG attempts in a game is 170 and the league average for points scored per game in the regular season was 211. In other words, this game has a ‘average’ point total (212) but the teams have played slower than league average in two of the three games. The main reason two of the three games have gone over the total is due to the Cavs shooting success as they hit over 54 percent overall and from beyond the arc. What’s surprising about that is the fact the Raptors had the 8th best FG% defense in the NBA this year and were 11th in defensive efficiency ratings. Also, the Cavs have shot dramatically better in the last two games of this series than their overall season averages and we can’t expect that success to continue. When these two have squared off recently in Toronto they have totaled less than today’s number in 4 of the last five meetings. Bet UNDER here. | |||||||
05-06-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET | |||||||
05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
ASA play on the Houston Rockets (-5) over San Antonio Spurs, Game 3 Friday, 9:30PM ET. We successfully played on the Spurs in Game 2 but will flip side here with a wager on the Rockets at home. Houston played well for three quarters in the previous meeting and entered the 4th quarter down just 5-points. But unfortunately for them, the Spurs outscored them 33-13 in the 4th. San Antonio was in a must win situation at home and off and embarrassing loss so it was expected they play well in Game 2. The Spurs shot nearly 55% from the field but we doubt they can repeat that performance on the road tonight. In their 3 road games against an average Memphis team, they averaged 45% shooting from the field and went 1-2 SU. Now they travel to Houston to face a Rockets team off a poor overall showing where James Harden managed just 13-points. The Rockets have won 10 of their last twelve home games and were a perfect 3-0 SU against the Thunder in the opening round. Houston was 30-11 SU at home this year with the second best average home differential of +8.9PPG and they won 7 of nine at home when off a SU loss. Tony Parker of the Spurs was playing EXTREMELY well in the post-season and his loss will affect the team’s regular rotation. Houston gets a double-digit win here. Lay it! | |||||||
05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Play on Washington Wizards (-5) over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET - The Wiz are obviously down 0-2 in the series and backed into a corner here. Washington has played really well in stretches against the Celtics in the first two games, but unfortunately for them they couldn't sustain it for four quarters. Now back at home, where they were 30-11 SU with an average point differential of +4.9PPG, they'll get the added energy from their home crowd to finish quarters. The home team has won and covered all six meeting this season between these two teams and there's no reason to think that will change here. Not to mention, the Wizard are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Boston has shot the lights out the first two games of this series by making over 51% of their field goal attempts and a combined 32 three-pointers. On the season the C's have averaged 45% shooting when playing on the road so don't expect them to continue on their torrid shooting streak in Washington. The value on this game is not what it should be and we know we are laying a premium price but it's warranted here in this situation. Take the Wizard minus the points. | |||||||
05-03-17 | Mets v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET | |||||||
05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ASA play on the Golden State Warriors (-13) over the Utah Jazz. At first glance this seems like a daunting number for a second-round playoff game but it’s not. The Warriors are rested, dialed in and on a mission. The Jazz should let down here after a HUGE emotional road win over the Clippers. Golden State is 19-7 SU against top 10 teams in the NBA this season. Utah in that same comparison is just 14-19 SU against that level of competition this season. Granted, that’s straight up and not against the spread but it’s also a solid indicator of how these teams do against the league’s best teams. The Warriors were 36-5 SU at home this year with a ridiculous average point differential of plus +15.9PPG. They opened the playoffs with a 12-point and 29-point home wins over the Blazers. In the two regular season meetings between these two teams on this court the Warriors won the first meeting by 30-points. The second meeting was one of the last games of the season and the Warriors rested players in a throw away game, which resulted in a Jazz 6-point win. When you talk about the Jazz the first thing mentioned is defense. Utah had the 3rd best defensive efficiency in the NBA allowing just 1.053 points per possession. The problem is that Golden State is better in that same category allowing just 1.040PPP. Offensively, there is not comparison as the Warriors rank 1st in offensive efficiency averaging 1.156PPP while the Jazz are 13th at 1.096PPP. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven at home against the Jazz and Game #1 is going to be a blowout! | |||||||
05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 218 | Top | 119-129 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 218 Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - There are several indicators here that tells us to bet the 'under' and we'll trust the process. For those of you that have followed us for any amount of time you know we are 'law of averages' guys and focus on the 'norm' not the moment. In Game #1 of this series the Wizards shot over 50% overall and made 10 of 23 3's for 43.5%. Those numbers are WELL above their season averages of 47.4% and 36.9%. The same can be said for Boston. The Celtics shot over 51% overall from the field in Game #1 and made 19 of 39 3-pointers for 48.7%. Boston was 16th in the NBA in overall FG% by shooting 45.5% for the year. From beyond the arc, the C's shot just 35.9% which was 14th in the league and they averaged 12 made 3's per game. Another indicator that the first game of this series was abnormally high scoring was their pace of play. Combined they attempted 177 field goals which is only 7 more than the league average. When we put the numbers through our Math Model it suggests the total on this game should be 214, which was what Game #1 opened at, and is where this number should be set. With the vast majority of the public betting 'over' right now we'll be contrarian and bet UNDER! | |||||||
05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - I'm not going to lie, this wager for us has been brewing since October 28th when these two teams met in Toronto and we bet the Raptors +2.5 points at home over the Cavs. Going into that game, the Raptors had all summer to stew after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and looked like a perfect opportunity to wager on the Raps as a home dog. But Cleveland won by 3-points and then proceeded to win the next two regular season meetings, before losing at the end of the season in a meaningless game at home (evidence it was meaningless as the Raptors were favored by 3 points on the road). Now the Cavs are laying a reasonable number at home considering the Raptors were just a 2-point dog in Milwaukee who is far worse than Cleveland. The Cavaliers were tied with the Spurs during the regular season with the 4th best point differential in the NBA at home of +8.1PPG. They are 75-19 SU at home the past two seasons and have a 15-10 ATS record at home in the playoffs the last two years. Since 2013 the Raptors have a playoff record of 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) which is the second worst percentage in the NBA over that span of time. The mental aspect of this game clearly favors the Cavaliers and we are betting this game plays out much like last year's playoff home games for the Cavs when they beat Toronto on this court by 31, 19 and 38 points. When we 'tweak' a couple important variables within our math model it suggests a double digit win by Cleveland. Lay it! | |||||||
04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 216 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 216 - Washington @ Boston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET These were two of the top 8 scoring offenses this season with Boston ranking 8th and Washington 5th. The Wiz averaged 107 PPG in their opening round series vs Atlanta yet only shot 45% from the field and 31% from deep in those 6 games. Those numbers are far below their regular season averages of 47.5% and 37% so the fact is, despite scoring at a high rate, they didn’t shoot the ball all that well. On the defensive end they allowed a Hawks team that averaged 103 PPG during the regular season to average 106 PPG in the series. Atlanta didn’t shoot the ball well either hitting 45% overall and only 30% from beyond the arc. So neither team shot very well for the series yet they still averaged 213 PPG. Boston’s offense was definitely off kilter their first 2 games, both losses, vs Chicago. However, once they settled in, the Celts put up 104 or more in each of their last 4 games vs the Bulls. Chicago’s offense was putrid in those 4 games but let’s not forget the Bulls ranked near the bottom of the NBA this season in scoring and shooting percentage. Boston will not be able to slow down the Wizards nearly as easily as they did the Bulls. These two met four times this season and the oddsmakers set 3 of those 4 totals higher than this current number of 216. The lowest output of those four meetings was 211 and they averaged 220 points in those four games. The two teams combined to shoot 46% in those four games so the fact is they put up a lot of points, yet didn’t shoot light’s out. This one goes OVER the total. | |||||||
04-29-17 | Braves v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET | |||||||
04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 204 - Boston @ Chicago, Friday at 8:05 PM ET Our computer says under along with several other indicators including public money on ‘over’ but the line has dipped. In the two meetings in Chicago the total points scored has ended up being 191 and 199. There has been a poor shooting performance by one of the two teams in nearly every game of this series. The ‘under’ is 5-0 the last five clashes between these two teams in the Windy City. Celtics ‘under’ in 13 of their last 16 road games. Bulls ‘under’ in 10 of their last eleven home games against teams with winning road records. That tells us the Bulls know they must slow the pace to have a chance to win. They’ll grind tonight and keep this from being a shootout. BET UNDER! | |||||||
04-27-17 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 goals in Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET | |||||||
04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 195.5 | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 195.5 in the Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks game. Tipoff is 7PM ET. We hit a big UNDER wager earlier in this series in Game 3 and will come right back here with the same bet. Looking at this first round matchup we see the Bucks have scored 97 or less points in 3 of the five games. Toronto has scored 87 or less points in 3 of the five. In the most recent meeting in Toronto, these two teams combined for 211 total points but they only took 139 shots to get there. Remember, the league average for field goal attempts per game is 170 and the league average for points scored is 211. So these two clubs scored the league average but took 31 LESS FG ATTEMPTS! In other words, they shot extremely well. Had the Bucks shot their regular season average percentage on the game they score around 83 points. The same can be said for the Raptors. If they shoot 'normally' at home they score approximately 100 points. In the two games in Milwaukee the Raptors scored 77 and 87 points and shot an average of 37.5%. The Bucks put up 104 and 76 points in the two games in Milwaukee but shot nearly 53% in the game they put up 104 (regular season average 47.5%). Lots of UNDER support here as 5 straight meetings on this court between these two franchises have all stayed below the posted number. 11-4 under record the last 15 meets. Based on pace of play we expect a low scoring game. | |||||||
04-26-17 | Padres +120 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-5 | Win | 120 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres Money Line (+) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET | |||||||
04-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 196 | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 195 Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET - This is clearly a contrarian wager on our part and we'll explain why we're on the right side here. Take a look at the actual Totals posted by Vegas on the last three games of this series. In Game 2 the Total was 199.5 and the two teams combined for 190 points. That was with 154 combined field goal attempts. In Game 3 the number is set at 197.5 which is a logical adjustment by Vegas based on the first two games. The Jazz and Clippers have hot shooting nights and combine for 217 total points but they only attempts 144 field goals. After a high scoring game you'd expect the number to go up correct? In Game 4 though, the number drops to 196 and they total 203-points. They did it again with some remarkable shooting on just 149 attempts from the field. So after two straight overs and higher scoring games the number tonight dips to the lowest of the series at 195? The key here is the pace of play statistics. The league average for FG attempts per game is 170 but these two teams have combined for 144 and 149 in two straight games. Logically, statistics say their shooting percentages return to normal and at a slower paced game we get a very low scoring contest. Both teams are very good shooting teams on the season but in the last two games they've been abnormally good. The Jazz have shot a combined 53% (season ave 46.7%) while the Clippers shot 54% in Game 3 and have made 39% of their 3's the past two games which is also higher than their season numbers. The Under has cashed 5 of the last six meetings here. Play UNDER! | |||||||
04-24-17 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 220 | Top | 128-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play OVER 220 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers 10:30PM ET. To begin with our Math Model projected 228 total points on this game with the big indicators here being the pace of play. In the last two games these teams have combined for 181 FG attempts in each game which is substantially higher than the league average. In comparison to the league average for points scored per game (211) and field goal attempts this total has still not been set high enough. In other words we need 'average' shooting nights from both teams to cash in. Golden State’s road efficiency numbers are off the charts as they average 1.128 points per possession which is 2nd best in the NBA. They average 113PPG on the road and in the three meeting here against the Blazers this season they put up 127, 113 and 119 points. There is no reason the Warriors don’t get to 115 plus in this game, especially considering the Blazers have the 7th worst defensive efficiency defense in the NBA allowing 1.109PPP and 108.5PPG. But to get to 220+ we’ll need the Blazers to score and we feel they will. Portland was in the top half of the league in pace of play and 8th in the NBA in scoring at 107.9PPG. All four of the regular season meetings between these two ended with 224 or more points and just 1 of the three playoff meetings has ended with less than 230 total points. 9 of the last ten meetings has ended with more total points than tonight's number so let's keep this simple and not over-think it. BET OVER! | |||||||
04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it! | |||||||
04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA), and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. | |||||||
04-19-17 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220 | Top | 81-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
We are going to play UNDER in the Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors game #2, Weds 10:30PM ET - Public money has been steadily coming in on the OVER tonight, yet the line has dropped from 221 to 220. The opening game of this series ended with 230 total points but there were some abnormal circumstances that we don't expect to repeat tonight. The Blazers starting backcourt of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard went off in Game 1 as they combined for 75 of the 109 points the Blazers scored. Those two players were 28 of 54 from the field and 7 of 15 from beyond the arc. It's unlikely those two great players can duplicate a performance like that again tonight. The rest of the Blazers shot just 30% on the night. Meanwhile the Warriors shot 53% from the field and Kevin Durant contributed 32 points on 12 of 20 shooting. Durant is questionable tonight and even if he does play he won't be 100% and won't put up those numbers again. Let's not forget the Warriors have the 2nd best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall, #1 when playing at home. Portland hasn't been great defensively all season long but they were better down the stretch of the regular season by holding five straight opponents to 106 points or less. All the indicators tell us the UNDER is the way to go here. | |||||||
04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 194 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
We are playing OVER 194 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors game Tuesday. The line on this game has been over-adjusted by the Oddsmakers as its 4 full points less than Game 1. Granted, these two teams combined for just 180 total points in the opener but the Raptors couldn't make a shot in the second half and only scored 13-points in the 4th quarter. For the game the Raptors shot just 36%, going 27 of 75 from the field. That's an abnormally low number as Toronto shot 46.3% on the season which was 11th best in the NBA. Not to mention their 75 field goal attempts were 9 less than their season average of 84.3 on the year. If Toronto has an average night shooting and an average number of field goal attempts, the opener goes way over this number. The Bucks had a decent shooting night as they hit 44.7% from the field but that is still below their season average of 47.4% which was 4th best in the NBA. On the road this season the Bucks average 204 total points per game while the Raptors averaged 213 at home. Do you know how many times the Raptors and their opponent have totaled less than 200 points in Toronto this year? Just 9 times out of 42 games! This is the 6th meeting of the season between these two teams and 4 of the six had totals set by the oddsmakers of 203 or more. Value says bet OVER! | |||||||
04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 208 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Over 208 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - All we need is an average game for this bet to win and we feel we get that tonight. What we mean by average is this. The league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211PPG this year and based on what these two teams did this year we are predicting 213 total points. Both clubs are right around league average when it comes to pace or possessions per game. Both Indiana and Cleveland are above average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings with the Cavs having the 3rd highest points per possession in the NBA at 1.137PPP. Both teams are also below average in defensive efficiency. In the opener these two combined for 217 total points and that was with the Cavs missing 13 free throws and Kyrie Irving going just 1 for 9 from beyond the arc. In the last four meetings between these two teams they've combined for 249, 217, 265 (OT) and 217. Both teams have some significant over trends right now and we'll predict another over tonight. | |||||||
04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests. Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams. Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1. | |||||||
04-15-17 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER the Total - Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 1:10 PM ET | |||||||
04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs -2 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas! | |||||||
04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 227.5 | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Today we play OVER 227.5 in the Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns game, 10PM ET. The Thunder are essentially locked into the 6th seed in the West so this game really isn't about playoff positioning. But it is about Russell Westbrook setting the all time record for the most triple-doubles in a season so expect a focused Thunders team tonight. OKC could play a better opponent than tonight's as the Suns are young, fun and want to run-n-gun! Westbrook is averaging 41.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 13.7 assists against the Suns this season and had a pair of games with 51 and 48 points! He also needs just 6 assists tonight to ensure averaging double digits assists this year and who better to play than the Suns who he has a career best 22 assist game against. Phoenix waved the white flag a week ago and are sitting veteran players to see how the younger pieces fit. Defensively for the Sun's it's been a disaster as they've allowed 120+ in four straight and 112 or more in 9 of their last ten games. Phoenix has the 3rd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the year and are also the 2nd fastest paced team which helps our wager tonight. Just over a month ago these same two teams met and combined for 229 total points and that was with the Thunder shooting just 42.5% as a team against a Suns D that allows over 47% on their home court. OKC has played in a few lower scoring games of late but tonight they'll gladly play the Suns style and it will lead to 230+ points. | |||||||
04-05-17 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 202.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
ASA play on: OVER 202.5 Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers, 10:35PM ET - Based on the full season statistics our math model projects 207 total points in this game but when we dissect those numbers, we see a current trend toward an even higher scoring game. On the season the Mavs average 92.1 possessions per game which is what they've averaged their last five games. But their offensive efficiency numbers are better and their defensive efficiency numbers are worse. Dallas is coming off a game last night and when playing without rest the Mavs have averaged 205PPG on the season. The Clippers are about league average in pace of play and offensive efficiency ratings but below average in defensive efficiency. Don't forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year is 211 so today's total on this game is set a full 8-points less than average. The Clippers have had 3 full days rest leading up to tonight and in the previous 4 games in this scheduling situation those games have averaged 234 total points. | |||||||
04-04-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -6 | Top | 87-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz! | |||||||
04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Under 155, Gonzaga vs North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET This number is set awfully high for an NCAA Championship game. For some perspective, just 4 of the last 26 NCAA title games have topped 160 points (this total is currently set at 155). While both offenses are definitely capable, let’s not forget that the Zags are #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and defensive eFG%. With this number set where it is, one of this two teams almost has to get to 80 points. Gonzaga has not allowed a single team to reach 80 all year. UNC’s defense has been solid during the tourney as well allowing just 40% from the field. They just held a very good shooting Oregon team to 38%. With PG Berry having 2 bad ankles, this Tar Heel team will rely very heavily on Jackson from the outside. If he’s off, they will have trouble scoring bunches from deep. Inside they rely on offensive rebounding and putbacks and with Gonzaga’s size, they should be able to neutralize that a bit. Also, we don’t envision the Zags shooting nearly 50% as they did on Saturday. In last year’s championship game, UNC & Villanova combined to shoot 49.5% and they still only reached 151 points. Both teams will have to play very well offensively to get to this number and we don’t think it happens. Take the UNDER. | |||||||
04-01-17 | Oregon +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon +5 over UNC, Saturday at 8:35 PM ET The Ducks run to the Final 4 has been extremely impressive as they topped one of the hottest teams in the country (Michigan) in the Sweet 16 and then beat what many considered to be the favorite to win it all (Kansas) in the Elite 8. They Jayhawks were basically at home in Kansas City and they were rolling to say the least winning their first 3 NCAA tourney games all by at least 20 points. Even with that, Oregon handled the Jayhawks by 14 points in a game that was never really in doubt. KU’s only lead of the game was 3-2. The Ducks are 33-5 on the season and 3 of their 5 losses have come by 4 points or less. UNC is obviously very good but we feel they are a bit overrated right now. This team struggled to beat Arkansas in the round of 32 and had to come from 5 points down with 5:00 to go to beat Kentucky by 2 points on a shot at the buzzer. With PG Berry not at 100%, and maybe not even close to it, we think UNC is absolutely beatable here. These two teams are very close in a number of key statistical categories and actually Oregon is the better shooting team (48.4% to 46.9%) and better defensively allowing 65 PPG on 40.7% shooting to UNC’s 71 PPG allowed and 41.7%. The Ducks athletes are absolutely on par with UNC and may actually be better. They should be able to hold their own on the defensive boards which is key vs the Tar Heels. As far as NBA talent goes, the Heels do not have an advantage as they have 2 of the top 53 prospects according the Chad Ford (Jackson & Bradley) while Oregon actually has 3 (Brooks, Dorsey, and Bell). UNC was just a 1.5 point favorite on a neutral court vs Kentucky. Based on that alone, they should be 2.5 or 3 at the very most here. We’re getting value with a very good Oregon team. Don’t be at all surprised if they pull the upset here. |
Service | Profit |
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William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |