Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-07-24 | Alabama v. Auburn OVER 163 | Top | 81-99 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
#693/694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 163 Points – Alabama vs Auburn, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met back in late January with the total set at 161 points they stayed Under hitting 154. Now, despite that game going Under the total, tonight’s total opened 2 points higher than where the total in January closed. Interesting. The oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are. In that first game both teams played well below their offensive averages for the season. Bama hit just 38% of their shots while Auburn hit just under 41% and they were a combined 54 for 135 for just 40%. From beyond the arc they combined to make only 16 of 55 attempts for 29%. When we look at their points per possession numbers, Bama was 1.05 PPP and Auburn was 1.00 PPP. Even with those poor offensive numbers, these 2 still hit 154 total points! Comparing those PPP numbers, For the season both rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency (PPP) with the Crimson Tide averaging 1.26 and Auburn 1.19. So as you can see, neither team was anywhere close to what they average for the year. Bama leads the nation in scoring averaging 90 PPG and Auburn is in the top 25 at 83 PPG. Both teams play very fast so we expect lots of possessions. Both defenses foul a lot as well with each ranking in the top 90 in opponents percentage of points at the FT line and when they get there, Bama hits 79% and Auburn makes 76%. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games this season and the Tigers have also hit at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games. We look for both teams to hit at least 80 in this one so we like the Over on Wednesday night. | |||||||
02-07-24 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech -9.5 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
#700 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -9.5 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - La Tech is by far the best team in CUSA (ranked 66th nationally – the only team in CUSA in the top 100) and they’ve been simply destroying teams at home. They are a perfect 11-0 SU at home winning by an average margin of +22 points and they’ve held their opponents to an average of only 58 PPG at home. The Bulldogs are in the top 10 nationally in both FG% allowed (38%) and PPG allowed (62 PPG). They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. This will be easily the best defense Western Kentucky has faced this season. The Hilltoppers have an offensive efficiency rating of 225th in the nation, yet they’ve only faced ONE defense prior to tonight that ranks in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. They are the fastest paced team in the country per KenPom and they average 78 possessions per game, 2nd in the nation. The problem with that is, they are playing a much better team on the road and that allowed La Tech to have a number of extra offensive possessions as well. In a game where you are a heavy underdog, you don’t want to give the favorite more opportunities to pull away. There are only 2 other teams in CUSA ranked in the top 100 in tempo and the Bulldogs beat those teams by 40 & 14 points. On top of that, Western has been a poor road team not winning a single away game in conference play (0-3 SU). The Topper prefer to play inside the arc with 57% of their points coming for 2 point land (29th most nationally). The problem here is, Louisiana Tech limits their opponents to 2 point FG% of just 42% which is the best mark in the entire country. This will be WKY’s 3rd game in 7 days while LT has had a full week off to get ready and rest for this game. La Tech wins this one by double digits. | |||||||
02-06-24 | BYU v. Oklahoma +1 | Top | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma +1 over BYU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with BYU as a 1 point favorite and our power ratings have Oklahoma favored so we’ll grab the Sooners at home. OU started the season winning 15 of their first 18 games and now they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 which is why we are getting some value here. This is the first time this season that the Sooners have been a home dog (again if the opener holds as BYU favored). They’ve already been favored at home over Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech, among others. They are catching BYU playing their 2nd of back to back road games after the Cougars won @ WVU (worst team in the Big 12) on Saturday. That improved BYU’s record in true road games to just 2-3 on the year but those 2 wins came against WVU (as we mentioned) and UCF, 2 of the 4 Big 12 teams ranked outside the top 65 nationally. Oklahoma will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) that BYU has faced on the road this year, 2nd only to Baylor who topped the Cougs by 9 points. They were 4.5 point dogs in that road game and now favored vs a OU team that sits only 8 spots lower than Baylor in the KenPom ratings. Tough travel for BYU here having traveled from the west coast to the east coast to take on WVU and now they go straight to the south for a game only a few days later. They might be without starting big man Khalifa, who has an illness & a minor injury and is not currently in Oklahoma with the team. BYU relies as heavily as any team in the country on the 3 point shot (2nd most attempts in the nation) and they are facing an Oklahoma defense that ranks 5th in the nation allowing just 28% from deep while allowing just 63 PPG at home. This is a must win, get right spot for OU at home and we like them to win this one. | |||||||
02-06-24 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 127.5 | Top | 56-53 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two of the best defensive teams in the nation squaring off here should lead to very low scoring game. They both rank in the top 6 nationally in defensive efficiency and when we narrow it down to Big 10 games only, Maryland is #1 in that category and Rutgers is #2. They both make opposing offense work to get decent shots with the average offensive possession vs these defenses last 18.2 seconds. That ranks both in the top 30 nationally. They both create lots of turnovers (each ranked in top 50) which should lead to a number of empty possessions. Shooting will be a problem in this one. These are the 2 worst shooting teams in the conference in Big 10 play with each making less than 40% of their shots. They are also poor 3 point shooting teams ranking 13th and 14th in the conference in 3 point FG% and neither shoots very many from deep. On top of all that, the Scarlet Knights and Terps are also the 2 lowest scoring teams in the conference, both in league games and overall. These 2 Big 10 rivals have faced each other 4 times since January of 2021 and none of those games have topped 128 total points so they are used to playing low scoring grinders. They played once last season and tallied 114 total points. The Terps are a very slow paced team and should get the tempo at home which will limit possessions for both teams. Under is the play. | |||||||
02-04-24 | Nebraska v. Illinois -9.5 | Top | 84-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#858 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers are coming off a massive, energy draining home win over then #6 Wisconsin. It took a huge comeback from Nebraska to pick up that OT win as they trailed at one point by 19 points and were down 16 at halftime. That was on Thursday night not giving them much time to recoup and re-energize for this road game. Illinois, on the other hand, won by double digits @ Ohio State on Tuesday so they’ve had 2 extra days to rest and prepare. The Huskers have been fantastic at home beating the likes of Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State. However, when they’ve taken to the road, they’ve been terrible. They are 0-5 SU & ATS on the road in Big 10 play with every loss but 1 (vs Rutgers) coming by double digits. Their average margin of defeat on the road in conference play is 14.5 points and now they face one of the top few teams in the league and we expect another double digit loss. The Illini are back at full strength with leading scorer Shannon (20 PPG) back in the lineup after missing 6 straight games in January. Since his return they are 3-1 with their only loss coming in OT @ Northwestern. Illinois sits in 3rd place behind Purdue & Wisconsin and those 2 meet today so a chance for U of I to gain ground on one of those 2 teams with a win here. The Huskers live and die by the 3 taking more shots from beyond the arc than anyone else in the Big 10. This will be a tough task for them as they don’t shoot it as well on the road and they are facing an Illinois defense that allows just 31% from deep overall and just 27% at home. Watch the Huskers run out of gas in the 2nd half and Illinois pulls away for a big win. | |||||||
02-04-24 | NC-Greensboro v. Furman -3.5 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
#846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Furman -3.5 over UNC Greensboro, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Furman remains undervalued right now in our opinion. This team won the SoCon last year and returned most of their key contributors that beat Virginia in the NCAA tourney last year before losing to San Diego State who went on to play in the National Championship game. The problem this year with the Paladins is they have rarely had everyone available with a multitude of injuries creating problems with continuity. That includes their top 3 scorers all missing time this season, including top scorer Foster (19 PPG) who recently returned after a 9 game absence. This team was 28-8 last season and they are sitting at 12-10 right now, however they are healthy with everyone on board and have been for a few weeks now. That’s why they are on a current 6-1 run which started in early January. During that stretch they’ve faced the 2 highest rated teams in the SoCon (per KenPom), Samford and Western Carolina, and beat both of them. Greensboro sits in 2nd place in the conference one game behind Samford and with a win here, Furman can move into a tie for 2nd place. UNCG is 7-2 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. These 2 met back in December and UNCG won by 9 but Furman, as we mentioned their injuries, played that game without their top 3 scorers (Foster, Williams, and Pegues) who are all back and healthy now. They are undefeated at home in conference play despite their injury issues, and the Paladins have won 15 of their last 16 games here at Timmons Arena. Last year they were favored by 6 at home vs UNCG and now only laying 3.5 with basically the same team. We’ll call for Furman to win and cover this small number. | |||||||
02-03-24 | Florida v. Texas A&M -2.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2.5 over Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Great situation spot here for the Aggies. They are coming off a home loss vs Ole Miss 71-68 as an 8 point favorite last Saturday and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. They are facing the Gators who’ve been a bit lucky winning back to back games in OT including @ Kentucky on Wednesday evening. In their win over UK the Gators hit a 3 pointer as time expired to send the game to OT and won 94-91 in the extra session. The Wildcats were undermanned in that loss as they played without 2 starters (Edwards & Wagner) who combine to average over 20 PPG. Now after that huge road win Florida is on the road again only a few days later and they have a huge home game with Auburn next. That was just the 2nd road win this year for Florida (2-3 record) and just their 2nd road win vs a top 100 team since the start of last season. In their 5 road games, Florida is shooting just 39% on offense and their defense has allowed 86 PPG in those games. A&M is 12-8 on the year but half of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer including taking Houston (#1 KenPom team) to the wire on the road before losing by 4. Coming off a home loss, the Aggies are now in a must win spot at home with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They’ve won 25 of their last 29 home games. A&M was just an 8 point favorite here vs an Ole Miss team that has an 18-3 record. They were -3 here vs Kentucky a few weeks ago (a 5 point A&M win) who is rated 10 spots higher than Florida. This line is off (opened -1.5). Should be higher so we’re catching some solid value with a desperate home team. | |||||||
02-03-24 | Utah State v. San Diego State -4.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -4.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This has been a good situation for us this year taking an unranked home team as a favorite vs a rated road team. The fact is, ranked teams on the road have been a big time money burner this season with a 58-80 ATS record. USU steps into this game with a 19-2 overall record and ranked #17 in the polls yet they are a fairly significant underdog here (SDSU opened -5). That in and of itself speaks volumes. The Aztecs are 16-5 on the year and they’ve played the much tougher overall schedule (11th SOS nationally). KenPom actually has San Diego State rated higher than Utah State despite the records and we agree with that assessment. All 5 of the Aztecs losses have come on the road vs teams currently ranked in the top 65. Their most recent game was a 79-71 loss @ Colorado State (we were on CSU) on Tuesday night. Now they have a chance to bounce back at home where they are pretty much unbeatable with a 10-0 record this year and a 48-2 record their last 50 at home. SDSU has responded nicely with wins after each of their losses this season including 4 of those 5 wins coming by double digits. All 10 of the Aztecs home wins this year have come by double digits with an average final score of 77-59. They rank #1 in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. This is a must win for them as they sit at 5-3 in league play and Utah State is 7-1. SDSU cannot drop another game behind the conference leader. The Aggies are 3-1 in conference road games but they’ve been shaky away from home despite that record. Their lone easy win away from home was @ Air Force, by far the worst team in the conference. Their other road games were a 13 points loss @ New Mexico, a 1 point win @ UNLV in a game they trailed throughout and never led by more than 1 point, and an OT win @ Boise, again come from behind late to force OT. Their efficiency numbers on both ends of the court drop off quite a bit on the road. Since joining the MWC back in 2014, Utah State has faced San Diego State on the road 8 times. They are 0-8 SU in those games with 7 of the losses coming by at least 10 points. We like SDSU at home on Saturday. | |||||||
02-03-24 | Connecticut v. St. John's +3.5 | 77-64 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
#608 ASA PLAY ON 8* St John’s +3.5 over UConn, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We faded St John’s earlier this week @ Xavier and picked up a winner as they lost by 11. That was a perfect spot to go against the Johnnies who haven’t been great no the road and were playing a Xavier team that was blasted by UConn in their previous game so the Musketeers came out with a purpose and picked up a home win. Now we’re getting STJ at home off a loss against a Husky team that is at the top of their market right now. Connecticut has won 9 straight games since losing @ Seton Hall back on December 20th and we think this number is a bit inflated because of that. The Huskies have been dominant at home for the most part but they’ve had some very close calls on the road beating Butler by 7, Xavier by 5, and Villanova by 1 along with their 15 points loss @ Seton Hall in Big East play. The Johnnies will be the highest rated conference foe (per KenPom) that UConn has played on the road this season. The Huskies may also be without a key player (Alex Karaban) who is not 100%. St John’s is 4-1 at home in Big East play with their only loss coming by 1 point vs Marquette in a game STJ was without one of their key players Jordan Dingle. These 2 already faced off @ Connecticut and the Red Storm gave the Huskies everything they could handle in a 69-65 loss. That was despite STJ shooting only 38% and making only 4 of 18 three point shots. The Johnnies are 5-5 in league play but they’ve played the toughest schedule in the conference already facing the top 3 teams, UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, all down to the wire games losing by 4, 1, and 1 respectively. STJ is much improved this year (4th rated team in the Big East) and they gave UConn fits last year splitting with the eventual National Champions. We expect this to go to the wire so take the points with St John’s. | |||||||
02-01-24 | Seattle University v. Grand Canyon -9.5 | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Grand Canyon -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Grand Canyon is easily the best team in the WAC (only team in the top 100 in that conference) and they sit at the top of the standings with a 9-1 conference record, 19-2 overall. Their only non-conference loss came @ South Carolina by 7 points, a Gamecock team that is now 18-3 and sits in 2nd place in the SEC. Grand Canyon had a chance in that one as they led by 11 in the 2nd half. Their only other loss this season was in conference play vs this Seattle team just 12 days ago. The Antelopes were favored by 5 on the road in that game and now they are laying only 9 (opening line) in this one. We have this one power rated with GC as a 12 point favorite so some nice value here. In that 86-79 loss less than 2 weeks ago, Seattle shot lights out at home hitting 51% of their shots (their average is 43%) and 50% of their triples (their average is 31%). The Redhawks averaged 1.10 PPP in that win against a GC defense that leads the WAC in defensive efficiency giving up only 0.91 PPP. So as you can see, a lot had to go prefect for Seattle to get that win but despite the red hot shooting GC led for most of the 2nd half including with under 2:00 remaining so the 7 point margin was quite deceiving. The Antelopes are happy to be home, where they are 10-0 on the season, after a 3 game road trip. They are facing a Seattle team that is 1-6 SU on the road this season and dating back to last year they’ve won only 2 of their last 13 road tilts. We like Grand Canyon to win this one by double digits and get their quick revenge at home tonight. | |||||||
01-31-24 | Boise State v. New Mexico -10.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -10.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - No reason to jump off this New Mexico train right now. We were on them on Sunday vs Nevada and the Lobos simply rolled the Wolfpack 89-55. They were favored by -8.5 in that game and now are laying -9 (opening line) vs a Boise team that is rated almost the exact same as Nevada. The oddsmakers are having trouble catching up with how good this team is at home. They are now 11-0 SU at home and 9-1 ATS here at the Pit and going back further they’ve won 28 of their last 32 games here. The Lobos are now rated as the best team in the MWC and #19 overall nationally per KenPom. They have already faced 3 other conference contenders at the Pit and rolled them all beating Boise State by 34, San Diego State by 18, and Utah State (who is alone in first place) by 13. As we stated in our write up for Sunday’s game, the Lobos have led by at least 18 points in every home game but 1 and their margin of victory at the Pit is +24 PPG. After starting 3-0 in conference play, Boise has looked vulnerable over the last few weeks with a 2-2 record and both losses coming at home. Their one road game during that stretch was a tight 4 point win @ Fresno State, the lowest rated team in the MWC. The Broncos offense hasn’t been great in conference play ranking 9th in efficiency and 11th (last) in eFG%. Keeping up with an offense that isn’t shooting well will be a big problem in this game facing a New Mexico team that has averaged 91 PPG on their current 5 game winning streak. The Lobos continue to be undervalued and have the 7th best spread record in CBB at 15-5 (75%). We like them to pick up another easy home win on Wednesday. | |||||||
01-31-24 | St. John's v. Xavier -120 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
#670 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -1 or Pick -120 over St John’s. Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - Look for Xavier to play very well in this game after an absolutely embarrassing performance no Sunday @ UConn. The Musketeers lost that game 99-56 in what UConn coach Danny Hurley said was “one of our best performances on both ends of the court”. The Huskies shot 59% overall and 58% from beyond the arc and just missed triple digits. That alone should give Xavier plenty of motivation as they come back home on Wednesday. On top of that, XU already lost @ St John’s in December 81-66 in what was their 2nd worst performance of the season behind their effort @ UConn on Sunday. In that loss @ St John’s they shot just 35% and made only 19% of their triples. The Johnnies might be a bit overconfident after that first meeting and they have a massive game at home on Saturday vs UConn so a flat spot is possible here. The Musketeers have played the #1 most difficult conference slate and the #2 most difficult schedule in the nation overall (per KenPom). They have already faced Houston, Purdue, and UConn (twice) the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the nation per KenPom. XU has only 1 home loss in Big East play and that was a 5 point setback to UConn. They also went to the wire here with Houston (#1 per KenPom) losing by 6 so they’ve shown they can compete with the best in the nation at the Cintas Center. St John’s is just 2-3 SU in road games and in league play the Johnnies are the worst 3 point shooting team (30%) and the worst FT shooting team (69%). With the opening line set at -1 for the host, we simply need Xavier to win this game and we think they will. | |||||||
01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -2 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - After starting the season 13-1, CSU has now lost 4 of their last 6 games and they are in need of a home win. All 4 of their losses during this current stretch came on the road but at home this team has been outstanding. They are 10-1 SU on the season at home and their only loss came by 3 points vs St Mary’s in a game where Colorado State played without 2 of their top 6 players and still almost won. The Rams offense has been deadly ranking in the top 10 in FG% while averaging over 80 PPG. At home this offense has played at another level making 53% of their shots, over 40% of their 3’s, and putting up 85 PPG. Not sure the Aztecs can keep up here as they shoot just 43% on the road and barely average 70 PPG away from home. SDSU has a 3-4 record in true road games and 2 of those 3 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 and both went to the wire beating UC San Diego by 1 and San Jose State by 3. The Aztecs have played the easiest strength of schedule (conference games) and they still have 2 losses. They’ve been outscored by an average of -3 PPG on the road this season and they have a gigantic home game on deck vs 1st place Utah State. CSU has a very solid record of 7-4 SU vs top 100 teams including wins over Creighton, Colorado, and New Mexico. SDSU was in the National Championship game last season and CSU finished with a losing overall record, yet the Rams gave the Aztecs all they could handle here in Fort Collins before losing in OT. CSU is a MUCH better team this season (top 50 team this year / last year outside the top 100) and San Diego State isn’t on the same level as last year’s team. This line opened pick-em and we’re confident that the Rams will get a home win on Tuesday. | |||||||
01-30-24 | Iowa v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - IU is in desperate need of win coming off 3 straight losses. However, they just played the 3 best team in the Big 10 in consecutive games (Purdue, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois) so the losses were not unexpected. The Hoosiers showed some fight in their most recent game @ Illinois on Saturday losing by 8 but it was much closer than that. In fact, 8 points was the largest lead of the game for Illinois and with under 1:00 minute remaining Indiana was down 2 and at the FT line. The Hoosiers didn’t make a single 3 point shot in the game (0 for 9) and were outscored by 5 points from the charity stripe. So between the FT’s and 3 pointers, IU was outscored by 26 points yet still had a shot to win the game in the final minute. We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit over 48% of their shots including 36% of their triples. IU is 9-2 at home with their only losses coming vs 2 high level opponents, Kansas & Purdue. The Hawkeyes are playing their 2nd of back to back road games after beating Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Iowa needed a near perfect offensive performance to beat the Wolverines who are reeling to say the least right now losing 8 of their last 9 games, including 4 of those losses at home. Prior to Saturday Iowa was just 1-4 SU on the road but they caught fire in Michigan hitting 53% overall, 50% from beyond the arc, and they were 18 for 18 from the FT line. Now they face a solid Indiana defense who ranks 2nd in the Big 10 (conference play) in eFG% allowed and 1st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Hoosiers may also get forward Ware (14 PPG) back in the line up tonight after missing 2 games. Our power numbers have Indiana as a favorite here and this line opened pick-em. We like Indiana to win this one at home. | |||||||
01-28-24 | Nevada v. New Mexico -8 | Top | 55-89 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -8 over Nevada, Sunday at 10 PM ET - We were on Nevada earlier this week at home vs Colorado State in a game they had to win coming off 3 straight losses. The Wolfpack won by 13 (easy cover) but now they are in a tough spot traveling to the Pit in New Mexico to face a red hot team that doesn’t lose at home. The Lobos are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this year (8-1 ATS) and they’ve won every game but one by at least 9 points. In MWC play their home margin of victory is +16 PPG and that includes easy wins over San Diego State (by 18) and Utah State (by 13), the 2 highest rated teams in the conference besides themselves. Their average margin of victory overall at home this season is +22 PPG and they’ve led by at least 18 points at some point in every home game but 1. Going back further the Lobos have now won 27 of their last 31 home games. This is a dominant home team. Nevada is 1-2 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State who is ranked as the worst team in the league per KenPom (212th overall). The other 2 MWC road games resulted in a double digit loss @ San Diego State and a 5 point loss @ Wyoming who is rated as the 2nd worst team in the league ahead of only Fresno. As if New Mexico needed any more incentive, this is a double revenger after losing twice to the Wolfpack last year. They lost @ Nevada in double OT and they lost by 1 point at home with the Wolfpack making the game winning shot as time expired. Utah State upset Boise on the road yesterday to move to 7-1 so the Lobos need to win here to stay 1 game out of first place and not drop 2 games behind the Aggies, who we mentioned they already beat here by 13. Lay it. | |||||||
01-27-24 | Idaho State v. Weber State -11.5 | Top | 74-64 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State -11.5 or -12 over Idaho State, Saturday at 9 PM ET - This game has blowout written all over it in our opinion. Weber State is just 3-4 in Big Sky play, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 but they are still the #1 rated team in the league per KenPom. Three of their four conference losses have come by 2, 2, and 3 points. Their only poor performance was @ Montana on Monday where they lost by 15. It was bad spot for Weber with their 3rd game in 5 days and now they’ve had since Monday to rest and get ready and we expect a huge home effort on Saturday where they are 8-1 on the season. The Cats only home loss was vs Eastern Washington, who is currently 6-0 in conference play, by just 2 points in a game Weber State led by 13. EWU hit 54% of their shots in that game and 90% of their FT’s and still won by just 2 points. Weber, who is the Big Sky favorite, is in a must win spot at home and playing one of the worst teams in the league. Idaho State is 7-13 overall and just 2-5 in the league despite playing the 266th strength of schedule. They are playing their 2nd straight road game after losing @ Montana State by 7 earlier this week. That was a deceiving final score as the Bengals trailed by 17 in that game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining in the game. They are just 2-9 SU on the road this year and they have won only 8 of their last 43 road games! 7 of Weber State’s 8 home wins have come by double digits and they are averaging 86 PPG at home this year. They are facing that is rated 293rd which is the 3rd worst team Weber has faced this season and the Bengals only average 65 PPG on the road. Big win for Weber State on Saturday night | |||||||
01-27-24 | Kansas v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 75-79 | Push | 0 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over Kansas, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Kansas continues to live on past laurels and remains vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 16-3 SU but just 7-11 ATS. This team is simply not on the same level as past Kansas teams. They are 4-2 in Big 12 play but have played the easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (WVU, Okla St, and UCF). They have actually lost to 2 of those teams getting topped by UCF and West Virginia on the road. The Mountaineers are the worst team in the Big 12, they have only 2 wins all season vs top 100 teams and one of those was a 6 point win at home vs Kansas. The Jayhawks have even shown some vulnerability at home struggling to get by TCU by 2 and Cincinnati by 5 on Monday. ISU is also 4-2 but they’ve played the much tougher Big 12 slate (4th SOS in conference play) and their 2 losses were both on the road in very tough venues Oklahoma & BYU. The Cyclones are a perfect 12-0 at Hilton Coliseum, truly one of the toughest places to play in college hoops. That includes a win over #1 Houston (per KenPom). Since the start of last season ISU is 25-3 SU at home including a 15 point win here over Kansas last season who won the Big 12 and was a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. Last year’s KU team was definitely better than this year’s team and ISU’s team this year is better than they were last season. Iowa State’s defense is very high level ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers on 27% of opponents possessions (#1 nationally) which is bad news for a KU offense that isn’t great at protecting the ball (132nd). It’s really tough to score on this ISU team allowing 61 PPG (6th nationally) and with the Cyclones averaging 85 PPG at home, you can see why 11 of their 12 wins at home have come by double digits. We project another double digit win here for Iowa State so we’ll lay this small number. | |||||||
01-26-24 | St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 72-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over St Joes, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - This could be tabbed a must win for St Bonnies after losing 4 of their last 5 games including 2 straight on the road entering this contest. They are 2-4 in A10 play but still power rated as the 3rd best team in the conference per KenPom. Their most recent game was a particularly poor performance @ Duquesne and we expect a strong bounce back at home. In that 4 point loss to the Dukes, the Bonnies made only 27% of their shots, just 15% of their 3’s and 67% of their FT’s. Their season averages in those categories are 46%, 37%, and 78% respectively so it was just a poor shooting performance on the road and they still were in it to the end. STB also played that game without starting guard Adams-Woods who averages 14 PPG and leads the team in assists. He was sick on Tuesday and we would expect him back for this game. The Bonnies are catching St Joes coming off 3 straight wins including an upset @ UMass earlier this week. In that game STJ trailed by 13 points midway through the 2nd half and rallied to make a shot at the buzzer for a 1 point win. The Hawks last 2 wins have come by 2 points and 1 point and prior to their 3 game winning streak they had lost 4 of 5. Before their last second win @ UMass they had lost 3 straight road games. STJ relies very heavily in the 3 point shot and they are facing a St Bonnie defense that allows just 31% from deep (44th nationally). The Hawks hit nearly 50% of their 3’s in their 1 point win on Tuesday and we don’t expect them to be anywhere near as successful from deep tonight. Last season St Bonaventure was a 4 point favorite at home vs St Joes and won by 13. They’ve won 9 in a row vs the Hawks and the last time St Joes won @ St Bonnies was back in 2014 (9 straight losses at St Bonaventure). We like the home team in this must win spot. | |||||||
01-25-24 | New Mexico State v. Sam Houston State -4.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#808 ASA TOP PLAY ON Sam Houston State -4.5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - After winning their first 3 games in CUSA play, Sam Houston State lost @ Liberty last weekend. They are 3-1 in league playing having faced the 2nd most difficult conference schedule thus far. The Bearkats have already faced CUSA’s 3 highest rated teams per KenPom and beat 2 of those teams, Western Kentucky & La Tech, at home. NMSU is also 3-1 but they’ve faced the league’s easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (besides themselves). The Aggies have also played only 1 road game in conference play which was a 10 point loss @ FIU, the 2nd lowest rated team in the league. Speaking of road games, New Mexico State is 0-7 SU this year in true road games losing by an average of 18 points per game. In a game with a tight spread, FT’s will most likely be key in this one. Sam Houston should have a huge edge at the stripe here as they get their often (22% of their points are FT’s – 48th most nationally) and New Mexico State fouls as much as any team I the country. The Aggies send teams to the FT line an average of 25 times per game (9th most nationally) and a whopping 27% of their opponents points come from the stripe (3rd most in the country). These 2 teams both came over to Conference USA from the WAC so they are familiar with each other. Last year SHSU was a dog @ NMSU and won by double digits. A year earlier the Bearkats were a home dog vs NMSU and again won by double digits. We really like the way SHSU has played against the top teams in the conference already this year and we expect a win and cover for the host in this game. | |||||||
01-24-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Nevada won 15 of their first 16 games this season and now they’ve lost 3 straight so we look for a huge effort at home tonight. Their last 2 losses were both on the road and now they are back home where the Wolfpack are 9-1 this season and 24-2 SU since the start of last season. Nevada was favored by 4 at home vs CSU last year and won by 11 and going back further they’ve won 7 of their last 8 home games vs the Rams. Colorado State is coming off back to back home wins but they weren’t impressive in those games. It took OT for CSU to top a poor Air Force team as a 15.5 point favorite and then on Saturday they trailed UNLV for most of the 2nd half before taking their first lead with 2:30 remaining and pull out a come from behind 3 point win. The Rams are 0-2 on the road in conference play losing @ Utah State and @ Boise State, 2 teams ranked almost identical to this Nevada squad. The Wolfpack defense, which has been very good all season, was atrocious in their most recent game (a loss @ Wyoming) giving up their season high in points and shooting percentage. We expect a huge emphasis and bounce back on that end of the court tonight at home where they are allowing just 61 PPG on 38% opponents shooting. CSU’s overall offensive efficiency numbers are very good, however they’ve dropped off considerably since starting MWC play ranking 6th in the conference in efficiency. This is a huge game for Nevada, one of the favorites to win the MWC, as they are 2-3 in conference play and travel to New Mexico this weekend. | |||||||
01-24-24 | Davidson v. St. Louis -1.5 | Top | 84-61 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -1.5 over Davidson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Friday and they lost @ VCU but we’re going back to the well with the Billikens at home on Wednesday night. Despite their loss @ VCU, as we stated in that game’s analysis we still feel STL is undervalued right now with their 8-10 overall record. They are finally healthy after having clusters of injuries this season to 4 of their top 7 scorers who have all missed time this season. They’ve been a full strength for just 3 games now and the 2 prior to losing @ VCU they played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then took the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road losing by just 5 points. Both these teams are 1-4 in conference play but STL has played the tougher slate (2nd SOS in conference play) already playing 3 of the 6 teams in the A10 that rank inside KenPom’s top 100. In their only home game at full strength, the Billikens topped a very good St Joe’s team that is 12-6 and ranks as the 4th best team in the Atlantic 10. Davidson has won only 1 conference game as well but they’ve played 3 of their 5 league games at home and already faced 3 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the A10. The Wildcats are not a good shooting team this year ranking outside the top 200 in both over shooting percentage and 3 point percentage and they’ve been a bit lucky with opponents making only 65% of their FT’s vs Davidson this season. STL is one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 40 in percentage) and at home they are even better hitting 42% of their triples. With this line set at around a pick-em, we like the Billikens to win this game at home. | |||||||
01-23-24 | UAB v. Charlotte -4 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON Charlotte -4 or -4.5 over UAB, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Charlotte is 8-1 at home this season and they are on a nice 5 game winning streak. During that 5 game streak they’ve beaten FAU and North Texas, 2 of the 4 teams rated in the top 75 nationally from the AAC conference. FAU is the top team in the league and currently ranked 26th by KenPom. The 49ers have been waiting for this game after losing at home in double OT to UAB last March. The Blazers were a top 50 team last year with a 29-10 overall record but their ranked 100 spots lower this year after losing 6 of their top 7 players from that team. UAB has won 8 of their last 9, however 6 of those games came at home and only 1 of those wins was vs a top 100 team. That was a 1 point win at home vs Drake. The other top 100 team the faced during that 9 game run was FAU who beat the Blazers by double digits. UAB does have a 3-2 SU road record but their 3 wins have come vs UTSA by 2 points (lowest rated team in the AAC), vs Middle Tenn State by 1 point (ranked outside the top 300), and vs Alabama A&M (one of the 10 lowest rated teams in the country). Charlotte has played a top 90 schedule this season (UAB outside the top 150 in SOS) yet the 49ers still have better shooting percentages on offense & defense. They have a huge edge defensively ranking in the top 65 in eFG% allowed and allowing just 64 PPG on the season (top 20) while UAB ranks outside the top 220 in eFG% allowed and they give up 75 PPG. Charlotte is outscoring their opponents at home by +14 PPG and they’ve won 30 of their last 38 home games. We like the 49ers at home vs the overvalued Blazers on Tuesday night. | |||||||
01-21-24 | Wichita State +4.5 v. South Florida | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
#837 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +4.5 over South Florida, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wait a minute? A team that has won 8 of their last 9 games (USF) is at home and facing a team that has lost 6 in a row (Wichita St) and the host is laying only 4.5 points? Looks way too easy to grab USF here and we’re siding with the dogs. Despite their records (Wichita is 8-9 / USF is 10-5) we have these 2 teams power rated dead even on a neutral court. The Shockers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (64th SOS) and 5 of their last 6 games have come vs top 100 opponents. They just gave Florida Atlantic (ranked 25th per KenPom) all they could handle on the road before losing by 9. Wichita led that game by 11 at half and the first lead FAU was able to grab in the 2nd half came with just 6:00 remaining in the game. While the Shockers have been playing high level opponents over the last month, USF has played 1 top 100 team since December 9th and their overall strength of schedule ranks outside the top 300. Their one game vs a top 100 opponent over the last month just happened to be on Thursday night when they pulled the 74-73 upset @ Memphis. It was a game that USF trailed by 20 points in the 2nd half and at that moment they had right around a 1% chance of winning the game according to KenPom metrics. They used a massive amount of physical and emotional energy making that huge comeback on Thursday and we feel a letdown is in order here. Despite Wichita playing a SOS over 200 spots higher than South Florida, the Shockers shoot the ball better on offense (45% to 43%) and allow a lower percentage defensively (42% to 43%). Last year Wichita was +1 in this game @ USF and won by 4. Now they are getting 4.5 points (opening line) and we give them a great shot at winning this one. | |||||||
01-20-24 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech +2 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech +1.5 or +2 over Virginia, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We faded Virginia on the road last week @ Wake Forest and the Deacs rolled to an easy 19 point win. That dropped UVA’s record in true road games to 0-4 SU and ATS with every loss coming by at least 16 points. Their home vs road splits are as drastic as any team in the country. The Cavs are averaging only 54 PPG on 37% shooting away from home this season. Their normally stellar defense gives up 74 PPG on 49% shooting in road games. They’ve lost their 4 road games to the spread by 80 total points or an average -20 point ATS per game. We’re getting some value here with Tech because they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 games. However, only 1 of those would be considered a bad loss (lost in OT @ Notre Dame) and their most recent game was a win @ Clemson (ranked 39th per KenPom) as a double digit underdog. Their game prior to that the Yellow Jackets lost @ Duke by 5 but led the Blue Devils by double digits in the 2nd half despite getting shafted by the refs (not a surprise at Cameron Indoor Stadium) with a -12 made FT margin. Speaking of the Blue Devils, this Georgia Tech team already beat Duke here at home earlier in the season. Until UVA proves they can win, or even stay close, on the road, we’ll continue to fade them. Especially when they open as a road favorite vs a more than competent Ga Tech team. | |||||||
01-20-24 | Louisiana Tech v. Jacksonville State +4 | Top | 74-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State +3.5 or +4 over Louisiana Tech, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We think we have some very solid value with JSU here as our power ratings have them as a small favorite and the opening line was La Tech -2.5. The Gamecocks are undervalued and on the rise winning 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve also covered 5 of their last 6 and JSU’s only loss during that stretch was their most recent game (last Saturday) @ Western Kentucky, a game they led by 10 in the 2nd half but lost. Included in that 7 game stretch was a 10 point win @ Liberty (as an 11 point dog) who is rated as the best team in CUSA. La Tech just played host to that same Liberty team and won in OT in a game the Bulldogs trailed pretty much throughout despite the win. LT is just 3-6 SU in their true road games with 2 of those wins coming vs teams ranked outside the top 300. JSU’s defense is high level allowing just 62 PPG (12th nationally) and at home that drops to 59 PPG. They put lots of pressure on opposing teams with a defensive turnover rate of 19% which is a bad match up for the La Tech offense that coughs up the ball 19% of the time (263rd nationally). That should lead to extra possessions for the Gamecocks who shoot 49% from the field at home while averaging 77 PPG. La Tech has never played at this venue and we expect Jacksonville State to win this game at home. Take the points. | |||||||
01-20-24 | Marquette v. St. John's -115 | 73-72 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
#610 ASA PLAY ON 8* St John’s -115 over Marquette, Saturday at 12 PM ET - The Johnnies are vastly improved under new HC Rick Pitino sitting with a 12-6 record despite playing the 14th most difficult schedule in the country to date (per KenPom). We get them at home in this game coming off back to back road losses @ Creighton and @ Seton Hall. Their game @ Creighton went to the wire with the Jays winning 66-65 despite STJ making only 2 three point shots and 7 FT’s in the game. The Blue Jays were +12 points from beyond the arc and +9 from the charity stripe yet St John’s still had a shot to win that one on the road (STJ led by 9 with under 10:00 remaining in the game). The Golden Eagles are a step down from last year’s team that went 29-7 as they already have 5 losses on the year. After starting 5-0, Marquette is just 7-5 SU their last 12 games losing all 3 road games during that stretch @ Wisconsin, @ Providence, and @ Seton Hall. In their 4 true road games this season, Marquette is getting outscored by an average of 5 PPG while barely hitting 40% of their shots. We expect them to struggle offensively (they average just 66 PPG on the road) vs a St John’s defense that allows opponents to make just 39% of their shots at home. The Johnnies should be plenty of extra opportunities as well on the offensive glass where they rank 6th nationally corralling almost 40% of their misses vs a bad rebounding team in Marquette. The Eagles are also shorthanded with key rotation players Ross & Jones out and those 2 combined to average almost 40 minutes per game. St John’s around a pick-em is a very solid value and we’ll grab the Johnnies here. | |||||||
01-19-24 | St. Louis +8.5 v. VCU | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis +8.5 over VCU, Friday at 7 PM ET - St Louis is an undervalued team right now in our opinion with an 8-9 overall record and just 1-3 in the Atlantic 10. That’s because this team is finally healthy after having a number of injuries this season. Four of their top seven scorers have missed time this year due to injury. Top guard Parker has been back for 2 games after missing 9 in a row and starting center Ezewiro, a transfer from Georgetown, missed the first 11 games of the season and has scored double digits in every game since his return. Meadows and Hughes are 2 other key players who have missed time this season. They have had all hands on deck for their last 2 games and played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then taking by far the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road on Tuesday losing by just 5 points. The Billikens held tough with the Flyers despite attempting just 7 FT’s compared to 29 for Dayton. Now they take on a VCU team that is rated the 4th or 5th best team in the A10 and is 2-2 in league play with both wins coming to the wire (wins by 4 & 6 points). VCU has also struggled at home this season already losing 5 games on their home court. The Rams average margin of victory this year is +6 points and they’ve won 4 games by more than 12 points this season and 3 of those 4 wins came vs teams ranked 220 or lower. We like St Louis to give VCU all they can handle in this one so we’re grabbing the generous points. | |||||||
01-18-24 | Western Kentucky v. New Mexico State -125 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
#810 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico State pick-em -125 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 9 PM ET - This is an interesting line to say the least. It opened with NMSU as a pick-em at home despite the fact that WKY has won 9 of their last 10 games and New Mexico State has a losing record and they’ve won only 4 of their last 12. Looks pretty easy to take the Hilltoppers here based on that but there is a reason this game is near a pick-em rather than WKY favored. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if New Mexico State goes off as the favorite here. The Aggies have played the much tougher schedule thus far (45th SOS compared to WKY 232nd SOS) and they’ve been very tough at home going 7-1 SU this year. Their only loss at home was by 1 point to a very good New Mexico team who is currently ranked 32nd in KenPom rankings. They’ve already faced 4 top 100 teams and 7 teams ranked in the top 150. Western Kentucky, on the other hand, has faced 1 team this entire season that is currently ranked in the top 140. NMSU new head coach Hooten, who came over after a very successful 13 year run at Sam Houston State, took some time to get this team acclimated and playing the type of basketball he wants. They struggled big time early in the season but they’ve now won 2 of their last 3 games and even in their losses they’ve been competitive with 3 of their last 4 setbacks coming by 6 points or less. NMSU has played 8 home games this year and their average winning margin is 75-58. With the Aggies joining CUSA this year after being in the WAC last season, this is the first time WKY has had to make the long 1,500 mile trek from Bowling Green KY to Las Cruces NM. There is a reason the 7-10 team is favored (or close to pick-em) over the team that has a 13-4 record. Take New Mexico State here. | |||||||
01-18-24 | Florida International v. Liberty -12.5 | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -12.5 over FIU, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Despite the Flames sitting as a double digit favorite, we’re still get value on them in this game. That’s because they’ve lost 3 straight and sit at 0-3 in CUSA play (first year in CUSA) after winning the Atlantic Sun conference with a 15-3 record last year. They have plenty of experience back off that team that went 27-8 last year with 5 of their top 7 rotation guys back. Two of their three losses over the last week and half have come by 2 points and in OT and all 3 were vs top 150 teams. They’ve faced a top 100 schedule so far this season including the most difficult in Conference USA. In Liberty’s most recent home game, they were favored by 11 vs a Jacksonville State team that ranks more than 100 spots higher than this FIU team yet the spread vs the Panthers on Thursday is only 1 or 2 points higher. FIU has a 7-11 record despite playing a much easier schedule (276th SOS) but they’ve won 2 in a row, both at home vs teams ranked outside the top 220, thus the lower number. Liberty is a very good shooting team, top 100 in eFG% and offensive efficiency, and they are facing a terrible FIU defense that ranks outside the top 340 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG% defense. The Panthers allow 84 PPG on the road and they are facing a Liberty offense that puts up over 80 PPG at home while limiting their opponents to just 50 PPG. The Flames, despite their 0-3 conference record, are still the highest rated team in CUSA per KenPom. They have a home record of 37-5 SU since the start of the 2021 season and this is an absolute must win for them at home. Big win here for Liberty. | |||||||
01-17-24 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
#702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for UVA who is coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road, and now coming home where they are 9-0 on the season. Va Tech is trending down with a 5-5 SU record since late November and they’ve beaten 1 top 100 team since November 26th. The Hokies are 0-4 in true road games this season with 3 of those losses coming by double digits. In their road games this season Va Tech is barely making 40% of their shots and averaging just 64 PPG. We don’t anticipate them breaking out on the road here vs a Virginia defense that ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and is holding their opponents to a paltry 49 PPG at home. The Hokies are a good FT shooting team and they really rely in getting to the charity stripe (70th nationally in % of points from the FT line) but the Cavs rarely foul allowing opponents only 9 made FT’s per game at home. We went against UVA on the road on Saturday @ WF and they were rolled by double digits. This is a different team at home where they are winning by an average of +25 PPG with a 7-2 ATS record. UVA was favored by 5 here last year and won by 10 and we see a similar final score on Wednesday night. Lay it with Virginia. | |||||||
01-16-24 | Purdue v. Indiana +10.5 | Top | 87-66 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON Indiana +10.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Purdue has shown some serious vulnerability on the road this season. They have played 3 true road games this season losing 2 of those games @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska. Their only true road win was @ Maryland in a game the Terps hit only 33% of their shots overall, just 23% of their 3’s and made only 6 FT’s. Now they face their rival IU who is 9-1 at home with their only loss at Assembly Hall coming by 4 points vs Kansas in a game where the Hoosiers led for much of. IU has been very solid offensively at home hitting nearly 50% of their shots while scoring 77 PPG. They should be able to keep up in this one vs a Purdue defense that has allowed 78 PPG on the road this year. The Boilers defense has allowed at least 78 points in each of their last 3 games and in Big 10 play they are giving up an average of 76 PPG in their 6 Big 10 games this season. It will be tough for Purdue to pull away in this one. On the other end of the court the IU defense has been very good at home allowing just 68 PPG on 39% shooting. Only 3 of their 10 opponents have been able to top 70 points at Assembly Hall. Indiana topped Purdue here last year by 5 points as a 1.5 point favorite and now they are near a double digit dog just one year later. This is the largest home dog role for Indiana vs Purdue since the 2009 season. 11 of the last 15 meetings between these 2 rivals have resulted in single digit win margins and we expect another one here. Take the points with Indiana. | |||||||
01-15-24 | Iowa v. Minnesota -1.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 6 PM ET - We faded Minnesota on Friday and picked up a win as Indiana rolled at home to an easy win. Now we get a much improved Gopher team at home off a loss basically in a pick-em game vs Iowa. Meanwhile the Hawkeyes are off a huge home win over Nebraska scoring 94 points in the process. Iowa was in an ideal situation in that game catching the Huskers upsetting Purdue at home just a few days earlier. Iowa has been a completely different team away from home the last few seasons. This year they are 0-4 SU in true road game with an average margin of -16 points per game. If we go back to the start of last season they have played 15 true road games and won only 4 of those. The Hawkeyes average 95 PPG at home and only 72 PPG on the road, they shoot over 50% at home and just 43% on the road, and from beyond the arc they make 37% of their shot at home and 32% on the road. Minnesota is drastically improved from last season and they have only 1 home loss vs Missouri, a game the Gophers led by 20 in the 2nd half. Prior to their loss @ Indiana the Gophers had won 7 straight and they’ve been a huge money maker with a 14-2 ATS record this season. Minnesota is tough to guard with 5 players averaging double digit points including one of the top players in the Big 10, Dawson Garcia, averaging 17 PPG and 8 RPG. They rank in the top 30 nationally in eFG% and Minny is facing an Iowa defense that allows 77 PPG overall and 84 PPG on the road. The Hawks have a huge home game on deck vs Purdue so a look ahead is highly possible. We have this game power rated with Minnesota a 4 point home favorite and we’re getting them near pick-em. We like the Gophers in this one. | |||||||
01-13-24 | Drake v. Southern Illinois +2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #760 Southern Illinois +2.5 vs Drake, 8 PM ET - Drake off huge home win over Indiana State who is the best team in the MVC this year and should be flat for this road date against So. Illinois. Drake has played three true road games, all versus teams ranked lower than Southern Illinois and lost two of those games, one by 22-points to Belmont. The Bulldogs only true road win was at Valparaiso who is ranked outside top 300 per KenPom. SIU is a top 100 team that ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive eFG%. The Salukis are 79th in offensive efficiency and 120th in DEFF. Southern Illinois is a very good 3-point shooting team at 38.9% (16th in the nation) and also defends the Arc well with 2nd lowest 3PT% against in the country at 26.1%. The Salukis are 9-1 SU at home this year with an average +/- of +16.1PPG and 20-5 SU since the start of last year. Southern is playing with revenge here as they lost to Drake in the conference tournament a year ago. In the regular season meeting on this court a year ago, SIU beat Drake 53-49. We call for another W this time around. | |||||||
01-13-24 | Virginia v. Wake Forest -5.5 | 47-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
ASA play 8* on: #656 Wake Forest -5.5 vs. Virginia, 2 PM ET - Wake Forest is much improved this year and should be ready to bounce back after a 5-point road loss @ Florida State earlier this week. The Deacons are undefeated at home this season with an average margin of victory of +19PPG. Last season Wake Forest was 13-3 SU at home with an average +/- of +7.8PPG. UVA is not nearly as good as they have been in the past under Tony Bennett and they’ve had their struggles on the road. The Cavaliers are 0-3 SU in true road games this season with all of those losses coming by double digits including by 22 @ Notre Dame who is the 2nd worst team in the ACC. Wake Forest is a very good offensive team ranking 21st in efficiency and 33rd in eFG%. The Demon Deacons put up 81PPG on the season which is 36th nationally. This Virginia team has struggled offensively shooting just 45.4% (152nd) and 35.9% from Deep which ranks 90th. UVA has scored 60, 54, and 54 in their 3 road games which will not get it done against this Wake Forest team. | |||||||
01-13-24 | San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | Top | 70-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #622 New Mexico -3.5 over San Diego State, 2 PM ET - New Mexico is off a road loss @ UNLV by 10-points but should bounce back here at home against the Aztecs. In the game against UNLV the Lobos shot well at 49% for the game and were +8 in rebounds but turned it over 16 times. Those TO’s were very uncharacteristic for this New Mexico team that is 37th in turnover percentage on the season so don’t expect a sloppy performance at home on Saturday. New Mexico is very good at home in the Pit with a 8-0 SU record this year and an average margin of victory of +20.7PPG. All but one of those home wins have come by at least 9 points. Going back even further we find the Lobos are 23-4 SU at home since the start of last year and they beat this same San Diego St (final 4 team) team on road last year and lost by 2 at home. In the loss at home New Mexico blew a 13-point 2nd half lead. The Aztecs are a top 25 team yet are an underdog here. SDSU is on the road for the 2nd straight game after barely beating San Jose St on Tuesday who has a 7-9 record. San Deigo State is not a great shooting team overall at 45.1% which ranks 166th in the nation. They struggle from Deep with a 32.6 shooting percentage which is 232nd. New Mexico hits 46.7% of their FG attempts (88th) and gets plenty of attempts with the 17th fastest paced offense in college hoops. | |||||||
01-12-24 | Minnesota v. Indiana -4 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana -4 over Minnesota, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Big home game for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss @ Rutgers earlier this week. This situation is similar to last Saturday when we were on Indiana at home vs Ohio State and picked up a win. IU is a near perfect 8-1 at home this season with their lone loss by 4 points vs Kansas, a game the Hoosiers led most of the way. They take on a Minnesota team that has an impressive 12-3 overall record but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (347th SOS out of 363 teams). The Gophers have played a grand total of ONE road game since December 3rd compared to 6 home games. That 1 road game they came from behind in the 2nd half to squeak by Michigan 73-71 in a game they shot nearly 50% from the field and over 40% from beyond the arc. That was also a win vs a Michigan team that is falling apart at the seams losers of 9 of their last 12 games and Minnesota was a 6.5 point dog in that game. Now IU laying only 3 in a crucial home tilt. The Hoosiers have won 7 straight at home vs Minnesota and the last time the Gophers were able to pull off a win at Assembly Hall was the 2011/12 season. We like Indiana to win and cover at home. | |||||||
01-11-24 | Old Dominion v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -5.5 over Old Dominion, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We went against ODU last Saturday and came up with an easy win as Arkansas State won by 15. We’ll fade the Monarchs again on Thursday as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game in a week span. ODU is 0-6 on the road this season losing by an average of 10 PPG and their defense is allowing 83 PPG away from home. They allowed 86 points last Thursday at Troy in a 13 point loss and then allowed 90 over the weekend vs Arkie State. The Monarchs rank 322nd in eFG% defense and 345th in 3 point FG% defense. That won’t cut it here vs a Georgia State team that is 4-1 at home and has scored at least 88 points in 4 of those 5 home games. The Panthers should have a nice advantage at the FT line as well with ODU allowing 21% of their opponents points to come from the charity stripe and GSU hitting 76% of their freebies on the season. The Monarchs continue to be overvalued covering only 3 of their 14 games this season and we project another spread loss here. Georgia State by double digits. | |||||||
01-10-24 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -1.5 | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
#726 ASA PLAY ON 8* Ohio State -1 or -1.5 or Pick'em over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - We really like this situation for the Buckeyes. They are coming off a loss @ Indiana on Saturday (we were on the Hoosiers) and this becomes a very important game for them with 3 of their last 4 games on the road. OSU is 2-2 in Big 10 play and can’t afford a home loss here. The Buckeyes are 8-1 at home this year with their only loss coming back in early November vs Texas A&M, a game that was close throughout with neither team leading by more than 7 points. The Badgers have been on a nice roll winning 10 of their last 11 and could be a bit overvalued on the road in this one. They’ve played only 3 true road games and lost 2 of those @ Providence and @ Arizona. They have not been on the road in over a month and now are about to get pulled out of their comfort zone. The Badgers have been outscored by an average of 68-75 in their road games while shooting under 40% from the field. OSU has won their home games by an average score of 78-62 while hitting 38% of their triples. That will be an issue here for a Wisconsin defense that hasn’t been very good defending the arc allowing almost 36% which is 282nd nationally. We like this Wisconsin team but we feel we’re catching them at the top of the market so to speak (overvalued) vs a desperate home team. At basically a pick-em type game, we’ll call for Ohio State to pick up the win on Wednesday. | |||||||
01-10-24 | Murray State v. Missouri State -4 | Top | 77-53 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -4 over Murray State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Missouri State is in a must win spot coming off 2 straight losses and with 2 road game on deck after this one. The Bears lost by 2 points here at home last week vs Northern Iowa (first home loss of the season) missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer that would have given them the win. After that loss they were flat as a pancake @ Bradley putting up their worst performance of the year losing by 26 as a 5 point underdog. Missouri State head coach Ford called it an “unacceptable” effort so you can bet the Bears will be all in effort wise in this one. Murray State steps in off 3 straight wins and will be playing their 2nd of back to back road games after upsetting Evansville on the road over the weekend. The Aces played without their leading scorer in that game and the prior to Murray State wins were both at home. Prior to that road win the Racers were 0-6 SU in road/neutral games this season. They had also lost 9 of their previous 10 games prior to their current 3 game winning streak. Because of that mini streak we’re getting value with Missouri State laying a small number at home. The Bears have a HUGE edge defensively in this game. They rank 14th nationally in eFG% defense and 12th in 3 point defense allowing opponents to hit only 27% of their shots from deep. Murray State, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 300 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. These 2 split their games last year with the home team winning each. Murray State squeaked by at home by 3 points but when they traveled to Springfield the Bears rolled by 15 points. Expect a huge effort from Missouri State and an easy win. | |||||||
01-09-24 | Texas v. Cincinnati -5 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Unranked home team (Cincinnati) favored over a ranked road game (Texas #25) is a situation where we often look at the home team. First of all, the Longhorns should not be ranked period. They are 11-3 on the season, they’ve played the 310th most difficult SOS and the Horns have beaten ONE team ranked inside the top 130 this season (beat LSU who is ranked 83rd per KenPom). On top of that, Texas has played one true road game this season and lost by 21 points @ Marquette in that one. The Bearcats have played the tougher schedule and have the better record at 12-2. Their only losses are vs Dayton and Xavier both ranked in the top 40. Cincy has some nice momentum after a win @ BYU on Saturday (top 10 team per KenPom) and they have won 25 of their last 28 games at Fifth Third Arena including 9-0 this year with all wins by double digits. The Horns have been overvalued all season long (4-10 ATS) and they are facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the top 40 in both defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Bearcats should also have a nice edge on the glass ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and 9th in offensive rebounding. Lay it with Cincinnati. | |||||||
01-06-24 | Ohio State v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for the Hoosiers coming off a road loss on Wednesday night @ Nebraska. Not a bad loss by any means vs a Husker team that is 12-2 on the season and playing at a high level. We now get Indiana at home as an underdog vs an OSU team that has played a fairly weak slate thus far. The Buckeyes have played 1 true road game this year in their 14 games and they lost that game @ Penn State who KenPom has ranked as the only Big 10 team ranked outside the top 100. The Buckeyes have had back to back down to the wire wins vs West Virginia (the lowest rated team in the Big 12) with OSU winning in OT and then on Wednesday they struggled to get by Rutgers (won by 4) the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10. The Hoosiers have only 1 loss at home this year and that was by 4 points vs a Kansas team ranked #2 in the country. In that game IU led by as many as 13 points in the 2nd half and trailed for less than 4:00 minutes the entire game. Indiana is a very good shooting game ranking 31st nationally in FG% and they have been even better at home putting up 78 PPG on over 50% shooting. OSU has a solid 12-2 record but we mentioned their SOS which is more than 100 spots lower than Indiana and the Bucks have won only 1 of their last 11 Big 10 road games dating back to the start of last season. The Hoosier are a home dog to a team they beat by 16 here at Assembly Hall last season as a 5 point favorite. IU should be favored in this game but we’re getting a solid value play with the Hoosiers coming off a loss vs an OSU team that isn’t as good as their record might indicate. Indiana is the play. | |||||||
01-06-24 | Old Dominion v. Arkansas State -9.5 | 75-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
#674 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arkansas State -8 over Old Dominion, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Arkansas State is much better than their 5-9 record in our opinion. They’ve only played 3 home games this season and 11 road/neutral games. They’ve also played a tough schedule already facing Wisconsin, Iowa, Alabama and Belmont all on the road. They finally played a home game on Thursday and rolled Georgia Southern 109-83. The Red Wolves are very good offensive team averaging 78 PPG and at home in their 3 games they’ve averaged over 90 PPG. That could be a problem for an ODU team that averages 70 PPG and was just smoked on the road on Thursday night 86-73 by Troy. It wasn’t as close as the final score as Troy led that game by 26 points midway through the 2nd half before ODU made a late run. The Monarchs were without their top 2 scorers in that game, Jenkins & Allette, who combined to average 30 PPG and we’re guessing they may not play here. Jenkins is dealing with a knee injury and Allette has an illness and just 2 days removed from their last game and on the road again it’s highly possible neither will play and if they do they won’t be close to 100%. Old Dominion is 0-5 SU this season in their 5 true road games with their defense allowing 82 PPG and nearly 40% for 3 point land in those roadies. Not a great recipe vs an Arkansas State team that hits almost 45% of their 3’s at home. This one could get ugly. Lay it with Arkie State. | |||||||
01-04-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan -6 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan -6 over Minnesota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting Michigan at the bottom of the market so to speak, laying only 6 points. Last year the Wolverines were favored by 12.5 at home vs Minnesota so some solid value here. The reason Michigan is laying a low number here is they’ve lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. However, all of those 5 losses were vs top 100 teams (Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Florida, and McNeese State) and 3 of those 5 were by 3 points or fewer or in OT. Their most recent loss was at home vs a very good McNeese State team and don’t let the name fool you. They are very good and actually rated higher than tonight’s opponent, Minnesota, per KenPom. To put this point spread perspective, the Wolverines were favored by 10.5 last Friday vs McNeese State and now they are favored by just 6 (opening number) vs a Minnesota team who is ranked lower than McNeese as we discussed. This is a must win at home for Michigan as they have 2 road games following this game. Tough competition has been the theme for Michigan this year as they’ve played a very tough schedule (22nd SOS) which has a lot to do with their 6-7 record. They have solid top 100 wins over St John’s, Iowa, and Stanford this season. Minnesota has a better record, but only 1 top 100 win at home vs Nebraska. The Gophs have played a brutally easy schedule (358th SOS) and they’ve been at home for a full month. Only 2 of their 13 games this season have been road games (San Francisco & Ohio State) and the Gophers lost both of those games by double digits. Both teams have shot the ball very well (both top 25 in eFG%) but Michigan has only faced one defense ranked outside the top 250 in efficiency and 6 defenses ranked in the top 100. Compare that to the Gophers who’ve already faced 8 defenses ranked outside the top 250 on the season which is 62% of their games on the year. We like the home team in must win mode. | |||||||
01-03-24 | Loyola-Chicago v. St. Louis -2 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Billikens have one of the better home court advantages on the Atlantic 10. They are 6-1 this year in Chaifetz Arena with their only loss coming by 5 points vs a Utah State team that has a record of 13-1 on the season. Going back further, St Louis has won 30 of their last 35 home games. They played only 2 home games in December and beat Hofstra and Louisiana Tech, both rated higher than this Loyola team. With this line set at pick-em (opening number) we just need a win here from the Billikens. St Louis is coming off a loss @ NC State on December 20th and they’ve had 2 weeks off to get rested and ready. Loyola has the better record in this game, 8-5 compared to 7-6 for STL, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Ramblers strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and 5 of their 8 wins have come vs teams rated outside the top 300. They’ve played only 2 true road games this season and lost both by double digits @ Tulsa and @ South Florida, 2 teams rated very similar to this St Louis team. While Loyola has played only 3 games all season vs teams ranked inside the top 100, St Louis has played 5 of their last 6 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100. One key advantage for the host in this game is the Billikens 3 point shooting (53rd nationally in 3 point FG%) vs a Loyola defense ranked 277th defending the arc. At home STL’s shooting gets even better where they’ve hit 42% of their triples. They also get to the line a lot and make them when they get there (76% from the FT line). St Louis was favored by -11 at home vs Loyola last year (won by 19) and now we’re getting just slightly above a pick-em. Value on St Louis at home in this one. | |||||||
01-02-24 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
#652 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado State -3 or -3.5 over New Mexico, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - CSU comes into this game with a 12-1 SU record with their only loss coming by 3 points vs St Mary’s. In that loss the Rams played without 2 key starters, Lake & Strong, and still nearly beat a solid STM team. Lake has since returned and while Strong is still out, the Rams have adapted having now played 5 games with him on the shelf. They have only 1 loss despite playing a very tough schedule (53rd SOS) and they have 5 wins vs top 100 teams including wins over Colorado and Creighton (top 25 teams). CSU is a fantastic offensive team averaging 85 PPG while ranking 3rd nationally in eFG%, 11th in offensive efficiency and they make 77% of the FT’s. They’ve been held under 80 points only twice this season! New Mexico is also 12-1 on the year but overvalued in our opinion. The Lobos have played a much easier schedule (197th SOS) and this will be just their 3rd road game of the season. Their 2 roadies weren’t overly impressive as they lost big @ St Mary’s and barely beat a NM State, who has a current 6-9 record, on the road by 1 point. New Mexico relies heavily on creating turnovers which won’t work in this one vs a veteran CSU team that turns the ball over just 13.9% of the time (16th nationally). Because of that aggressiveness on defense, the Lobos also foul a lot which will be a problem in this game vs a very good FT shooting team. These 2 MWC teams split last year with each home team winning. The Lobos have lost 5 straight @ Colorado State and we’ll call for 6 in a row tonight. The Rams win and cover at home. | |||||||
12-30-23 | Creighton v. Marquette OVER 150 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
#627/628 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Creighton vs Marquette, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Two of the top offensive teams in the country facing off here and we expect a shootout on the scoreboard. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency with Creighton averaging 1.16 adjusted PPP and Marquette 1.15. Creighton ranks 4th in the nation in eFG% and Marquette is in the top 45. The Blue Jays average 83 PPG but that moves up to 84 PPG on the road so no drop off whatsoever. The Golden Eagles step in averaging 78.5 PPG but at home they are much more comfortable offensively averaging 87 PPG on over 50% shooting. Creighton has scored at least 79 points in 9 of their 12 games this season and Marquette has scored at least 75 points in 8 of their 13 games. The Eagles like to play fast ranking in the top 100 in pace. Creighton is middle of the pack in pace, however, they’ve played mainly slow paced teams this year with the exception of 2. In their 2 games vs teams ranked inside the top 100 in pace (Bama & Iowa), they totaled 176 and 167 points. We expect plenty of possessions in this game with the offenses in control. Over is the call. | |||||||
12-29-23 | East Tennessee State v. East Carolina -8 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -8 over East Tennessee State, Friday at 7 PM ET - ETSU is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. They are a bad shooting team making just 39% of their shots on the year (352nd) and they hit only 30% of their triples so far this season (308th). They have one player in their rotation that has hit better than 42% of their shots this season and only 2 players that have made more than 32% of their 3’s. On the road it’s worse. They have a 1-5 SU record away from home and they are averaging only 63 PPG on the road while making 38% of their FG attempts. They are facing an ECU team that has 7 wins at home this season while averaging 77 PPG in their own arena. The Pirates do have 3 losses at home this season but 2 of those came with 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder Johnson out with an injury. Their only loss at home while at full strength was vs South Carolina and that was a tight loss 68-62, a game ECU led with less than 4:00 minutes remaining. Their only other loss since November was vs Florida and that was another close one losing 70-65. The Pirates should have a nice advantage at the charity stripe as they get to the line often (95th in percentage of points from the FT line) and ETSU fouls a lot averaging 21 fouls per game (29th most in the nation). ECU has 80% of their minutes back from last season and they’ve added 2 key transfers from Kansas & LSU. ETSU has won only 9 of their last 35 road games and we like the Pirates to roll at home in this one. | |||||||
12-28-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#729/730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The defenses for each of these teams will be the best 2 units on the floor. Both rank in the to 50 in FG% allowed and they both allow only 30% from beyond the arc. UCLA is allowing only 62 PPG (14th best nationally) despite already facing 4 teams ranked in the top 35 in the country in offensive efficiency. Oregon State is allowing 69 PPG but 3 of their games have gone to OT and 2 went to double OT so those numbers are higher than they should be. The Beavers have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 65 points or less. These 2 offenses have struggled all season and we don’t see that changing here. They shoot just 42% (UCLA) and 43% (OSU) on the season and neither team is hitting 30% of their 3 pointers. Neither offense scores many points from deep both ranking outside the top 320 in percentage of points from outside the arc. We don’t look for many offensive possessions here as we have 2 slow paced teams facing off. That is especially the case on the defensive end where both teams make their opponents work very hard to get good shots. UCLA allows a shot attempts every 18.3 seconds and Oregon State allows a shot attempt every 18.5 seconds (both in the top 30 in the country). Last year these 2 totaled 109 points in their only meeting and we anticipate another grinder on Thursday night. | |||||||
12-28-23 | UC-Santa Barbara -2 v. UC-Davis | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
#711 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -2 over UC Davis, Friday at 9 PM ET - Both teams have had a full week plus off entering this game so both should be healthy and rested. UCSB is 7-3 on the season but that is a deceiving record as 2 of their 3 losses came with PG Mitchell, a potential first round draft choice, out with an injury. With Mitchell in the line up the Gauchos are 7-1 with their lone loss coming @ New Mexico who currently has an 11-1 record and the Lobos are a top 35 team per KenPom. Mitchell is averaging 20 PPG while shooting 52% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the FT line. He and the Gauchos should have a field day offensively vs a UC Davis team that ranks outside the top 300 in 2 point FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. UCSB is hitting 51% of their shots this season (7th nationally), 38.5% of their 3’s (30th nationally) and averaging 83 PPG. While Santa Barbara is averaging 83 PPG, UC Davis has scored more than 83 points just once this season vs Jessup College. Davis is 5-6 on the year with 2 wins vs non Division 1 opponents (Jessup & California Merced) and their 3 other wins all came vs teams ranked outside the top 200. They’ve faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 200 (UCSB is 140th) and the Aggies lost all of those games by double digits. UCSB has dominated this Big West series winning 7 straight meetings and 4 of those games were @ UC Davis. Lay the small number here. | |||||||
12-23-23 | Missouri State v. St. Mary's -12.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s -12.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - St Mary’s has been a completely different team at home compared to on the road. We were on the Gaels last Saturday when they beat UNLV by 2 points on a neutral court in Phoenix but failed to cover the 6 point spread. Since that game they have played 2 home games winning by a combined score of 163-90 vs two solid opponents, Middle Tennessee State and Northern Kentucky. STM did have a rare home loss back in November vs Weber State in a game they blew a 16 point second half lead. They are 6-0 in their other 6 home games winning all by at least 13 points. The Gaels have won 5 straight games including a very impressive win @ Colorado State who is currently ranked 30th in the nation per KenPom. In their one home game vs a similar rated opponent, STM beat a very good Davidson team by 34 points as an 11 point favorite (Davidson is ranked 115th and tonight’s opponent Missouri State is ranked 116th). This is a fantastic defensive team ranking 12th nationally in efficiency allowing only 0.92 PPP and they are allowing only 53 PPG at home. The Gaels have struggled away from home offensively but when playing in University Credit Union Pavilion, where they’ve won 40 of their last 43 games, they are averaging nearly 80 PPG this season. Missouri State topped Lindenwood by 22 points at home on Tuesday (we were on Mizzou St) and now make the long trip to the west coast. The Bears have played 4 road games this season and lost all 4 averaging only 64 PPG (in regulation) in those losses. Now facing the best defense they’ve seen this year, we don’t expect much offensively from MSU. The Bears have faced only one top 100 team this season and lost that game by 17 points vs Drake. St Mary’s will be the best team Missouri State has faced this season and we look for an easy win for the home team. | |||||||
12-21-23 | Jacksonville State v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 90-60 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas Little Rock -2.5 over Jacksonville State, Thursday at 3 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot for UALR. They are playing their 3rd straight home game and haven’t been on the road since December 7th. After a rough 1-5 start, Little Rock has turned the corner winning 5 of their last 7 games and 5 of their last 6 at home. They are catching Jacksonville State in a tough spot. The Gamecocks play @ Wisconsin last Thursday, then traveled to Texas on Monday to face Tarleton State, and now a few days later they are on the road in Arkansas to play an afternoon game. JSU is coming off an upset win @ Tarleton State on Monday winning by 3 as a 4.5 point dog. They trailed for most of the game in that win (down 12 with 9:00 minutes remaining) and took their first lead of the 2nd half with barely over 2:00 minutes remaining. They still were down with under 40 seconds left before pulling out the win. Now traveling again after that come from behind win could be tough for JSU today. UALR has played well at home with a 6-2 SU & ATS mark so far this season. They are averaging 82 PPG at home with a +7 PPG point differential. They are hitting 49% of their shots at home this season and nearly 40% of their triples. They will be facing a fatigued JSU offense that simply isn’t a very good shooting team that ranks 266th in eFG% and makes less than 30% of their 3’s. We’ll lay the small number with the home team on Thursday afternoon. | |||||||
12-20-23 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -2.5 over Oklahoma, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This isn’t a true home game for UNC but it’s being played in Charlotte so the crowd will be heavily in favor of the Heels. They are sort of in must win mode coming off back to back losses vs UConn and Kentucky, both on neutral courts. Those aren’t the only 2 high level teams UNC has played this year as their strength of schedule ranks 21st in the country per KenPom. They have solid wins vs Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. The Sooners are undefeated but they’ve played an ultra easy slate ranking 336th in SOS. They have played 7 home games and just 3 neutral site games. This will be the closest thing to a true road game Oklahoma has played this season. Half of their opponents this season currently rank 295th or lower while North Carolina hasn’t played a single team ranked that low and more than half of their games (6) have come vs teams inside the top 100. The Sooners have very good overall defensive numbers, however we need to account for their weak schedule when sifting through that. They have faced only 3 offenses currently ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency and the average offensive efficiency of the 10 teams they’ve faced is 202nd. Now they take on a Tar Heel team that ranks 9th in the country in offensive efficiency and is averaging 85 PPG on the season. Offensively, Oklahoma has put up some big numbers at home this year (vs mainly poor competition) but in their 3 games away from home (all neutral court) they’ve been held below their PPP season average. That was vs 3 defensive teams (Iowa, Arkansas, and USC) who’s defensive efficiency numbers are not as good as this UNC team. We feel this is just a really good spot for Carolina needing a win after a few losses vs a team that has padded their early season record vs a poor SOS. Lay the small number. | |||||||
12-19-23 | Lindenwood v. Missouri State -17.5 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#630 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -17.5 over Lindenwood, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Like this spot for Mizzou State as they enter this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games so should be fully focused on rolling over this bad Lindenwood team. The Bears most recent game was a 1 point loss @ Tulsa, a game they led by 10 with 5:00 minutes remaining. All 4 of MSU’s losses this year have come on the road (7-4 overall record) and their home winning margin is +13.5 PPG. Three of their four home opponents were ranked inside the top 200 while Lindenwood is currently ranked 333rd (out of 362). Lindenwood is also in a tough spot coming off a rare road win @ IUPUI who is ranked 359th or the 4th worst team in the country. The Lions were 0-4 on the road coming into that game vs a terrible IUPUI team and they lost those 4 games by an average margin of -28 PPG. Lindenwood has now won only 3 of their last 21 road games dating back to the start of last year and 13 of those losses have come by double digits. They are bad on both ends of the court ranking 343rd in offensive efficiency and 285th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are a poor offensive team that averages only 60 PPG on the road this season and they rank outside the top 300 in FG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Missouri State defense that has been outstanding 14th in the nation in eFG% defense and top 35 in both 2 point FG and 3 point FG percentage defense. On offense the Bears are averaging 85 PPG at home and hitting nearly 49% of their shots. Now facing a Lindenwood defense that allows over 80 PPG on the road. This one should be a blowout. | |||||||
12-18-23 | Jacksonville State v. Tarleton St UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
#881/882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Tarleton State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Defense is definitely the strength of these 2 teams. They both rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense allowing right around 62 PPG. Offensively both of these teams struggle to make shots ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. JSU has played only 4 teams this year that have a defensive efficiency rank inside the top 200. They have not topped 60 points in any of those games and they averaged just 56 PPG. Tarleton State hasn’t played a defense with a pulse since November and in their 5 games vs defenses ranked inside the top 200 in efficiency they are averaging 65 PPG. We expect very few possessions this game as both are slow paced (313th and 322nd in possession per game). Both are very deliberate on offense especially with each averaging 19 seconds per possession which ranks them 335th in the nation. Three point shots will be kept at a minimum in this one as neither relies heavily on the deep ball. JSU averages 16 three point attempts per game and TSU averages 15 ranking them 335th and 344th respectively. When the do take a shot from beyond the arc, they are hitting just 30% (both teams) which is not good. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so we should be getting very few points with the clock stopped. Defenses and slow pace rule here so we grab the Under. | |||||||
12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Mary’s -5 over UNLV, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re getting some value with St Mary’s at this point in the season mainly because their record is just 5-5. Let’s keep in mind they’ve played a brutally tough schedule thus far (16th SOS) and 4 of their 5 losses have come vs teams currently sitting in the top 75 per KenPom. The Gaels return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes from a team that was 27-8 last season and beat VCU in round 1 of the NCAA tourney before losing to eventual National Champions UConn. STM has now had a full week off and has some solid momentum after beating an undefeated Colorado State team on the road last Saturday. That was a CSU team that had 5 top 100 wins already this season including W’s vs Washington, Creighton, and Colorado. Impressive win for St Mary’s to go on the road and beat that team. Saturday they are facing a UNLV team that is coming off a gigantic home win on Wednesday vs Creighton and now traveling just a few days after that win. The Rebels hit 52% of their shots in that game and 45% from deep. The Jays, normally a great shooting team, had an off night 8 of their 29 three point attempts. That was an aberration in our opinion as UNLV is NOT a good defensive team. They rank outside the top 300 in eFG% allowed and are near the bottom of college basketball defending the arc (343rd). St Mary’s should have a huge edge defensive as they rank 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Gaels should also dominate the glass ranking 21st nationally in offensive rebounding facing a UNLV team that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Rebs have only played 3 teams currently ranked inside the top 100 and lost 2 of those. St Mary’s will be the 2nd highest rated team UNLV has played this season. Lay the small number with the Gaels | |||||||
12-14-23 | Furman v. Tulane OVER 171.5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
#875/876 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 171.5 Points – Furman vs Tulane, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a very high total but it’s set there for a reason. These 2 teams are all offense and no defense. On top of that, they both love to play full speed ahead when it comes to tempo. Both are in the top 20 nationally when it comes to adjusted tempo per KenPom. Offensively, they don’t wait to hoist up shots with Tulane taking a shot every 14 seconds offensively (5th fastest) and Furman taking a shot ever 15 seconds (20th fastest). We’re going to have LOTS of possessions in this game. Offensively these 2 both rank in the top 75 in efficiency and in the top 50 in eFG%. They average 87 PPG (Tulane) and 84 PPG (Furman) and they’ve combined to play 18 games this season reaching at least 80 points 13 times on offense. Defensively they both rank outside the top 200 in efficiency while allowing 78 PPG (Furman) and 79 PPG (Tulane) on that end of the court. Tulane gets to the line a lot with 28% of their points coming from the stripe (3rd most nationally) and they hit 76% as a team. Scoring points with the clock stopped will be big here. The Wave should also have a field day inside where they make almost 64% of their 2 points shots (2nd nationally) facing a Furman defense that ranks 338th defending inside the arc. On the other end Furman can hit 3’s making an average of 10 per game (22nd nationally) and the Green Wave aren’t great at defending the arc 181st nationally. The Paladins are also ranked 15th hitting over 58% of their 2 point shots. This one should be fast and all offense. Take the Over. | |||||||
12-12-23 | Oral Roberts +13 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
#617 ASA TOP PLAY ON Oral Roberts +13 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - ORU is a very good mid major program coming off a 30-5 record a year ago. They did lose some players off that team but still have 2 solid starters back and we have the power rated as the 2nd best team in the Summit League. Their head coach from last season moved onto Wichita State but ORU hired his head assistant so the systems are still in place. They have played 2 high level Power 6 teams to the wire on the road this season losing at Texas A&M by 8 and at Kansas State in OT. The Golden Eagles have tested themselves early playing the 35th most difficult schedule (KenPom SOS ratings) and they won’t be intimidated here. Texas Tech has a new head coach (from North Texas), new systems, and they’ve overhauled nearly their entire roster from last season. The Red Raiders have a big game on deck Saturday vs SEC’s Vanderbilt so they might be peaking ahead to that game. They aren’t a great shooting team ranking 151st in eFG% and they struggle from beyond the arc hitting only 32%. Tech also lost one of their top players for the season, Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), to a season ending injury in their most recent game. Oral Roberts can make 3’s (over 10 per game ranking 15th nationally) and they turn the ball over at a mere 13% rate (11th nationally). They have the ingredients to make this a very dangerous game for Texas Tech. This ORU program has lost a TOTAL of 4 regular season games by more than 10 points since the start of the 2021 season. Take the points here. | |||||||
12-09-23 | TCU v. Clemson +1 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
#664 ASA PLAY ON Clemson pick-em over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral court in Toronto - Both teams step into this game undefeated but we have a huge strength of schedule difference between these 2 teams thus far. The Tigers have faced the 50th most difficult slate so far and have 4 top 85 wins including impressive road wins over Alabama and Pittsburgh. In their win @ Bama the Tigers made 10 fewer FT’s (attempted 11 fewer) and STILL won by 8 points over a Crimson Tide team that came into the game on a 20 game home winning streak. TCU is also unbeaten but their SOS thus far ranks 362nd which is the easiest slate so far in the entire country. The Horned Frogs haven’t played a single team ranked inside the top 175 while Clemson has played only 1 team ranked outside the top 175. Every opponent TCU has faced is currently ranked 270th or lower with the exception of Georgetown who ranks 176th and is the 2nd worst team in the Big East ahead of only DePaul. In their game @ Georgetown, TCU’s only game away from home this season, they barely topped the Hoyas 84-83. Both of these teams have shot the ball very well this season (both in the top 25 in eFG%), the problem is TCU has faced FIVE defenses (7 games played this season) vs teams ranked outside the top 300 in efficiency and not a single defense ranked higher than 225th. Meanwhile, Clemson has just played 3 straight teams with defensive efficiency ranks inside the top 100. Despite their weak slate, TCU has struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.2% (267th nationally) and Clemson has hit 41% of their triples this season (7th nationally). The Tigers rarely turn the ball over (36th nationally) and are very good on the defensive boards (27th nationally) which takes away TCU’s strengths of creating turnovers and offensive rebounding. Clemson’s tough schedule has prepared them for this moment while TCU is stepping WAY up in class compared to their previous opponents. Clemson wins this one. | |||||||
12-09-23 | Grand Canyon v. Liberty -4.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty -4.5 over Grand Canyon, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Tough spot here for Grand Canyon traveling to the east coast after pulling a huge, court storming win over San Diego State at home on Tuesday. This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season and by far their furthest travel thus far. The Antelopes only other road game was at UT Rio Grande Valley who is rated outside the top 300 per KenPom. Liberty is at home for the 2nd straight game after crushing Mississippi Valley State on Tuesday by 35 and the Flames were able to spread their minutes out nicely so they should be fresh here. Speaking of home, Liberty Arena has been very good to the Flames who’ve won 20 straight games here including topping Villanova last season. Liberty has a number of solid top 140 wins this year beating Wichita State, Furman, Charlotte, and Vermont, all away from home on neutral courts. Their losses have come vs FAU (top 20 team) and Charleston both away from home. While Grand Canyon has played all home games but 1, this Liberty team is 7-2 despite playing only 3 home games so far this season. The Flames return 4 starters from a team that finished with a 27-9 record last year. This veteran team has really shot the ball well (16th nationally in eFG%) and they are facing a Grand Canyon team that struggled to defend the arc allowing 35.5% (276th nationally). The Antelopes rely heavily on getting to the FT line with a whopping 28% of their points this year coming from the stripe (2nd most nationally). They may struggle to get calls on the road in this one and Liberty does very well at limiting fouls. Liberty plays a very slow tempo and should control the pace at home here which should take Grand Canyon out of their game as they love to play fast. This is a really solid situation to lay a small number with a very good team at home. Take Liberty | |||||||
12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago +1.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 55-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
#887 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois Chicago +1.5 over Jacksonville State, Friday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have UIC a slight favorite here so value with the Flames as an underdog. They’ve been undervalued all season with a 6-1 mark ATS. UIC as played the much tougher schedule (ranked 118th SOS by KenPom) having faced 4 teams (half of their games) vs teams ranked inside the top 180. Jax State has played the 317th ranked SOS per KenPom and prior to this game vs Illinois Chicago they have played a total of ONE team vs a team ranked inside the top 180 and that was a 13 point loss. Per KenPom’s ratings, the Flames will be the best team Jacksonville State has faced this season (UIC ranked 124th) and the Gamecocks have already lost 4 games vs teams ranked outside the top 200. That includes 2 home game losses vs team ranked 200 or lower. The Flames have had a full week off after back to back losses UNC Greensboro (by 1 point) and vs Illinois State (by 5 points) so we expect them to be very focused on this one. Despite playing the tougher schedule, Illinois Chicago is better on both ends of the court. The Flames average 1.03 PPP offensively while allowing just 0.99 PPP on defense compared to Jax State who averaged 1.01 PPP while giving up 1.03 PPP. UIC has been fantastic defensively all season ranking 15th in eFG% allowed and 2nd nationally guarding the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 23% from deep. They should have their way on that end of the court vs a Gamecock offense that is outside the top 200 in eFG%, 2 point FG%, 3 point FG%, FT%, and scoring. We’ll take the better team getting points with motivation off 2 straight losses. | |||||||
12-06-23 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Iowa -2 over Richmond, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with Richmond favored and quickly flipped to Northern Iowa as a small favorite and we agree. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion as we’re getting a veteran, desperate Panther team at home at near a pick-em. The reason we’re getting some solid value on UNI is because their record is just 2-6 so far this season. They’ve played the 20th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom while Richmond, who has a 5-3 record, has played the 270th most difficult schedule. The Panthers bring back 4 starters and 91% of their minutes from last season and 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents currently rank inside the top 100. They have a solid top 100 win over Stanford 73-51 and nearly beat Texas Tech losing by 2 points. Richmond, on the other hand, has played only 2 teams currently inside the top 125 and lost to both (Boston College & Wichita State). Those were also the Spiders only 2 road games this season losing both by 7 and 12 points. Four of Richmond’s five wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 250 and 3 of those wins were vs teams ranked 315 or lower. The Spiders played host to this match up last year as 6 points favorites and won by 13. However, they lost nearly everyone of note from last year’s team with only 1 starter returning. UNI is off a tough OT loss on Saturday @ Evansville and their last home game was their worst outing of the season (loss to Belmont) so we expect a huge effort in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago we’d be laying a much larger number with Northern. Take the Panthers at home. | |||||||
12-05-23 | North Texas v. Boise State UNDER 123.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
#639/640 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 123.5 Points – North Texas vs Boise State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Two very good defensive teams that play very slow should lead to a low scoring game here. North Texas is notorious for playing as slow as any team in the country and this year is no different as they rank 358th out of 362 teams in average possession per game at 64. Boise State is right near the bottom as well in that statistic ranking 301st at 68 possessions per game. Both teams rank inside the top 65 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.0 PPP. Both also rank outside the top 115 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in field goals made per game. Boise has played 6 games vs Division 1 opponents and only 2 of those have topped 126 total points. Those games were vs Va Tech and Clemson who rank inside the top 65 nationally in offensive efficiency. UNT has scored 79 points in each of their last 2 games but one was vs Angelo State and the other vs Mississippi Valley State who ranks 355th in defensive efficiency. Prior to that they played 3 straight neutral site games and averaged just 59 PPG in those games. What impressed us was in their neutral site games they faced 2 efficient offenses who are fast paced and held them to 53 points (St Johns) and 66 points (LSU). Those 2 games vs much faster paced and better offensive teams than Boise ended with total points scored of 105 and 128 respectively. This one should be a grinder and we’ll grab the Under. | |||||||
12-04-23 | Furman v. Arkansas OVER 158.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#863/864 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 158.5 Points – Furman vs Arkansas, Monday at 8 PM ET - In this one we have 2 of the faster paced teams in the country so we’ll get plenty of offensive possessions. The Razors are 35th in possession per game at 76.4 and Furman is 58th averaging 75.5. Both offenses are averaging over 80 PPG on the season and each defense allows north of 75 PPG. Arkansas has played 5 home games and scored at least 80 in 4 of those games for an average of 84 PPG. They should have plenty of success here vs a Furman defense that ranks 227th in defensive efficiency and 258th in eFG% defense. The Paladins have played 5 games away from home this season (road + neutral games) and they’ve given up at least 78 points in 4 of those games for an average of 82 PPG. Furman can put up points as we discussed and they are very good shooting team hitting nearly 49% of their shots on the season (36th nationally). Not an aberration as they return a number of key players from last year’s team which finished with a 26-8 record and landed in the top 30 in shooting percentage. These teams have combined to play 15 games this season and 12 have gone Over the total. We’ll call for another high scoring game on Monday night. | |||||||
12-02-23 | George Mason v. Toledo -3.5 | Top | 86-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON Toledo -3.5 over George Mason, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We like this spot for a solid Toledo team, coming off 3 straight losses, and finally back at home where they normally do damage. The Rockets are one of the top few programs in the MAC with 3 consecutive 20+ win seasons and a 77-28 SU record since the start of the 2021 season. At home they’re nearly unbeatable with a 42-4 SU their last 46 home games. The Rockets have played a very tough schedule to date (77th SOS) and they have lost 3 straight, all to top 75 teams on a neutral court, making this home game very important. Those 3 losses came by 2, 6, and 8 points and they have now had a full week off to stew about their losses and make corrections heading into this home game vs George Mason. The Patriots step into this game with a 6-1 record but are overvalued due to their poor strength of schedule (319th). Four of their seven opponents so far this season are currently ranked outside the top 200 and they have yet to play a true road game. George Mason did play 2 neutral site games losing to Charlotte by 5 and barely getting by South Dakota State by 2 points, both teams ranked lower than this Toledo team per KenPom. The Patriots had a solid 20-13 season last year but they had to replace much of their roster with only 1 starter and 26% of their minutes returning this season. On top of that HC English moved on and is now the head man at Providence and he took 2 of Mason’s top players with him. This is a rematch from last year when George Mason pulled the upset at home as a 3 point dog hitting 51% of their shots in the process. Now we’re getting Toledo at home, at basically the same number, in a perfect situation. Lay the small spread here with the Rockets at home. | |||||||
12-02-23 | Illinois v. Rutgers UNDER 136 | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
#649/650 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 136 Points – Illinois vs Rutgers, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The last 2 years these 2 teams have met twice and the total points scored didn’t reach 130 in either game. We see a similar scenario playing out on Saturday. These were 2 of the top defensive teams in the country last season (both in top 25 in defensive efficiency) and that’s continued this year where they are both currently in the top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. As far as straight defensive FG% these teams are currently #1 and #2 in the nation with the Illini allowing teams to make only 34% of their shots and the Scarlet Knights allowing 34.6%. Illinois has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 60 points or less and only Marquette who plays fast and is the 7th most efficient offense in the country, got to 70 points (71-64 Final). Rutgers has also given up 60 points or less in 4 of their 6 games and the most they’ve allowed this year is 68. On offense neither is all that great. Rutgers has topped 71 points only once this season yet they haven’t played a single defense ranked in the top 100 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. The Illini have better overall numbers on offense but they’ve faced only 2 defenses all season ranked inside the top 150 and they were held to 64 points in each of those games. Both offenses rank outside the top 220 in 3 point FG% and neither shoot FT’s very well (57% for Illinois & 65% for Rutgers). Illinois prefers to play fast but Rutgers is a slow paced team and at home so we expect them to control the tempo here. Under is the call. | |||||||
12-01-23 | North Dakota v. CS-Fullerton -4.5 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
#882 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cal State Fullerton -4.5 over North Dakota, Friday at 9 PM ET - North Dakota steps into this game with a 6-1 record, however they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country thus far. They’ve faced only 1 team ranked inside the top 280 and that was Iowa and they lost that game by 42 points. The Fighting Hawks are in a very tough situational spot as well playing their 4th game in 7 days. They played in Conway, Arkansas on Saturday and Sunday, rushed home to face Concordia College of Minnesota on Tuesday and now they are on the West Coast a few days later. CS Fullerton has a 2-4 record but they’ve played the much tougher schedule. They’ve already faced 4 teams ranked 115th or higher and every team they’ve played is ranked higher than everyone on North Dakota’s schedule so far not named Iowa. The Titans have played only 1 home game the entire season prior to tonight and that was a 30 point win. Titan Gym is a tough place for opposing teams to visit as CSF has a record of 23-4 SU at home since the start of the 2022 season. Despite their sub .500 record and playing the much tougher schedule, the Titans PPP differential is actually better than North Dakota’s signaling some solid value on the home team. This is also a revenger from last season when CSF traveled to North Dakota and lost as a 5.5 point favorite. Now we’re laying the same number with them as home as the perception of each team is off due to their overall records. Half of the Fighting Hawks 6 wins have come by 2 points or less so they could be sitting with a much different record at this point. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (348th) and one of the worst at defending the arc (349th). We’ll lay the number with Cal State Fullerton and look for a solid cover on Friday night. | |||||||
11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4.5 v. Samford | Top | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
#747 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana +4.5 over Samford, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We have this game power rated dead even @ Samford so we’ll take the points. Louisiana is the better team and they’ve played the tougher schedule so far. The Rajin Cajuns are 5-2 with their 2 setbacks coming vs teams both rated higher than this Samford squad. ULL lost @ Toledo, the highest rated team in the MAC, by 9 points but Louisiana led that game by 16 midway through the 2nd half. Louisiana gathered only 3 points from the FT line in that game while Toledo scored 20 from the stripe which was obviously the difference. The Cajuns shot better from inside and outside the arc in that game but were done in by 10 more personal fouls. Their other loss was vs Wright State by 6 and the Raiders shot lights out in that game hitting 56% from the field. They’ve since won 3 in a row and are taking on a Samford team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far. The Bulldogs were rolled in their first 2 games vs Purdue (lost by 53) and VCU (lost by 10) and they’ve since won 5 straight games all vs teams ranked 293 or lower per KenPom. Samford has played the 346th easiest schedule and yet they have the same points per possession differential as Louisiana who has played the much tougher slate. Despite playing the tougher schedule the Cajuns are the much better shooting team (49th overall shooting % and 11th three point %) and they’ve mad 78% of their FT’s. Samford’s defense ranks 250th defending the arc and they foul a lot (23% of opponents points from the stripe) which doesn’t match up well with ULL. On the other end of the court Samford relies heavily on the 3 point shot but will be facing a Louisiana team that has allowed just 25% from deep (15th best nationally). We give Louisiana a great shot to win this game outright but if not, at worst it should go to the wire so we’ll grab the points. | |||||||
11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
#677 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tennessee +2.5 over North Carolina, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good Tennessee team coming off back to back losses in Hawaii one week ago. Those losses were to Purdue (by 4) and Kansas (by 8) who are 2 of the top 3 teams in the nation in KenPom’s power ratings. The Vols have also already faced Syracuse (in Hawaii) and played @ Wisconsin (both double digit wins) in what has been a very tough schedule thus far. On the other side, UNC has played only 1 team ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 teams and that was a loss to Villanova. It’s also very possible the Heels will be without one of their top offensive players, Cormac Ryan (11 PPG), as he injured his ankle late last week in a game and hadn’t practiced at all as of Monday night. Missing his offense will be tough vs a Tennessee team that ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (#1 last year as well) limiting teams to just 0.87 points per possession. The Vols had their chances against both Kansas and Purdue. The led in the 2nd half of both of those games but scored only 5 points in the final 6 minutes vs Kansas and had a shot to win in the final minute vs the Boilers. Now we’re getting a rested (off for a week) veteran team (all upperclassmen in rotation) off 2 straight losses. They will play with some urgency here and our power ratings have Tennessee as the better team and they are getting points. UNC’s 3 home games this year have been vs teams outside the top 150 and the Heels lost 3 home games a year ago. Last time the Vols paid a visit to the Dean Smith Dome in November 2021, they walked away with a 17 point win as an underdog. We don’t look for a blowout by either team here but we like the Vols to pull the minor upset. | |||||||
11-28-23 | LSU v. Syracuse -110 | Top | 57-80 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Syracuse pick-em over LSU, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with LSU as a slight favorite and has moved to a pick-em as of this writing on Monday evening. We agree with the move. We actually have the Orange favored by 3 with our power ratings so still some solid value. This is LSU’s first true road game of the season and they’ve been poor in that spot to say the least. Last year they were 0-9 SU in true road games and dating back to the start of the 2021 season they are 2-17 SU in road games. The JMA Wireless Dome (we still call it the Carrier Dome) can be a tough place to shoot for opposing teams. The Tigers had a losing record a year ago at 14-19 and they were a poor shooting team a year ago making only 41% of their shots (337th nationally). While they’ve shot the ball better early this season, they need to prove they can do it on the road in a tough environment. The Tigers have a number of transfers (4 new starters) trying to mesh early in the season but their #1 transfer, Jalen Cook, has been ruled ineligible this season and won’t play. LSU has had a problem with turnovers coughing it up on 19% of their possession despite playing only 1 team ranked inside the top 200 in defensive turnover percentage. Here they face a Cuse team that has been great at forcing turnovers almost 22% of the time (top 40 nationally). Syracuse is 4-2 on the season and their 2 losses came vs top 10 teams (Tennessee & Gonzaga) in Hawaii. They are undefeated in their 3 homes games and averaging 84 PPG. The Cuse has been back from Hawaii for 6 days with a chance to regroup and refresh. LSU just 7-18 ATS their last 25 games and this will be a tough spot for them as they try to adapt to their new line up. Take Syracuse. | |||||||
11-27-23 | Northern Illinois +13.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Illinois +13.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 8 PM ET - Northwestern was overvalued coming into the season which has shown through in their ATS record which is 1-4. On the other end, Northern Illinois is undervalued with a perfect 5-0 ATS record (5-1 SU). The Huskies have played a fairly tough schedule (79th) and their only loss came in the season opener @ Marquette who is a top 10 team. Northwestern has a 4-1 SU record and none of their wins have come by this current spread of 13 despite playing a number of teams ranked much lower than NIU. The Cats are also coming off a 9 day layoff which we don’t think is ideal and they have bigger fish to fry as they host Purdue on Friday. NIU has shown an ability to shoot the ball well thus far ranking in the top 80 in both eFG% and 3 point %. This team should be able to hit some 3’s here facing a NW defense that is allowing opponents to hit almost 39% from deep this season (323rd defensively). The Huskies also get to the FT line a lot (25% of their points have come from the stripe) and if they can do that along with winning the 3 point line this game should be fairly close. NW is not a good shooting team thus far especially from beyond the arc where they’ve made only 29%. Last year Northwestern won this game at home by 17 points and this year they are facing an NIU team that is rated 100 spots higher, per KenPom, than last year’s team. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are currently 20+ spots lower right now compared to where they ended last season. This is a big game for NIU playing an instate big boy while NW just wants to get out of this one with a win and get ready to host the #1 team in the country on Friday. Take the points. | |||||||
11-26-23 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Texas A&M pick-em to +1.5 over Iowa State, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Florida. Both teams coming off losses on Friday with A&M losing by 7 vs FAU (37th rated team per KenPom) and Iowa State losing by 9 vs Virginia Tech (49th rated team per KenPom). The Aggies loss vs a very good Florida Atlantic team came down to the Owls shooting lights out from deep (16 of 30 from 3) and making 20 FT’s compared to 15 for A&M. Thus FAU outscored the Aggies by 23 points from beyond the arc + FT line and only won by 7. We look for this veteran team to bounce back tonight. The Aggies were 25-10 last year and they return 4 starters along with 81% of their minutes from that team. That includes PG Taylor who is one of the top players in the country. They are 5-1 SU on the season and have played a tough schedule already with 4 of their 6 opponents sitting inside the top 100. Iowa State is also 5-1 but they’ve played one of the weakest slates in the country with 2 top 100 teams and the other 4 ranking outside the top 260 including 3 outside the top 300. The Cyclones defensive numbers are great so far this season but let’s put that into perspective. They’ve played only 1 offense this year ranked in the top 100 and lost (vs Va Tech) and 4 of their other opponents are currently ranked 277 or lower in offensive efficiency with 3 outside the top 325. Now they face an A&M offense ranked 5th nationally in offensive efficiency. ISU thrives on creating turnovers to open up offensive opportunities but the Aggies have a veteran backcourt the rarely turns the ball over (13% TO rate – 19th best in the country) so we don’t think the Cyclones will be able to take advantage of that as they have vs lesser opponents this season. Because they are aggressive defensively, ISU fouls a lot and A&M makes their FT’s (76%) at a high rate. On the other end the Cyclones make only 68% of their freebies. A&M has been a covering machine with an ATS record of 50-30 their last 80 games. Our power ratings have A&M favored by 3 here and we’re getting them at dead even. Take Texas A&M here. | |||||||
11-22-23 | East Tennessee State v. Cleveland State -7.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
#690 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland State -7.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for the host CSU. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Eastern Michigan as a 7 point favorite. They should be extra motivated after that loss. They are facing an ETSU team that is off an upset win at home over Davidson (70-68 as a 6.5 point dog) which makes this a perfect set up for the home team. ETSU battled back from a 10 point deficit in that game to win by 2 points. The Bucs are 2-2 on the season but they’ve lost both of their road games @ Elon (ETSU was a favorite) and then getting smoked at Butler. This is an ESTU team that had a 12-20 record last season and is learning the ropes under a new head coach Brooks Savage who has never been a head coach and came over from Wake Forest where he was an assistant. Four of their five starters are transfers and they only return 34% of their minutes for last season. Cleveland State finished 21-14 last season and they are one of the favorites in the Horizon this season. We currently have them power rated as the 2nd best team in the league behind only Wright State. They return 3 starters and almost 60% of their minutes from last year. CSU’s 2 losses have come on the road and they are 3-0 at home and they’ve won 30 of their last 35 games at home. The Vikings have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they finished 2nd in the Horizon last year with a 14-6 SU record. CSU is a solid program with a record of 55-33 last 3+ seasons and we’re getting them at home off a loss. We expect a double digit win for the Vikings on Wednesday. | |||||||
11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Detroit -2.5 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit -2.5 over Eastern Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Detroit will finally be playing their first home game after starting the season with 4 tough road tilts. The Titans are 0-4 which is giving us some value here as we’re laying -2.5 and our power ratings have Detroit closer to -5. They are also catching EMU off an upset home win over Cleveland State as 7 point underdogs which is also pushing this number lower than it should be. Detroit has played all top 125 teams and those 4 teams have a combined record of 13-1. Now they get to play a home game vs an EMU team ranked outside the top 300 so big drop off in competition. We’ll be honest the numbers on both ends of the court for both teams are not good but Detroit has played the tougher schedule. The only unit on the court that ranks inside the top 300 in efficiency is Detroit’s offense which ranks 252nd. Eastern is 2-2 on the season but those 2 wins came at home. They’ve played 2 road games this year and lost those by 43 & 39 points! Speaking of road games, the Eagles have been absolutely brutal long term away from home winning only 6 of their last 54 road games! With this number set very low, the almost need to win this game outright to cover and we just don’t see it. Detroit, on the other hand, has been very solid at home with an 18-6 SU record since the start of the 2022 season. This is a revenger for Detroit as well as they lost by 2 points @ EMU last year. The Titans were favored on the road by 4.5 points in that one and now they are laying a full bucket less at home just 1 year later. Again, nice value here with the home team and we’ll lay it. | |||||||
11-20-23 | UCLA v. Marquette -5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -5.5 over UCLA, Monday at 11:30 PM ET – Game in Hawaii - This is the last game of the Maui Invitational on Monday night. This is rough early season opponent for this inexperienced UCLA team. The Bruins have 1 starter back from last year’s team, lost nearly 90% of the scoring, and return only 18% of their total minutes from a year ago. Their starting backcourt is really raw with sophomore McClendon, who averaged 9 minutes per game last year, and freshman Mack. They’ve be facing off vs one of the top guard duos in the country. Marquette’s Kolek was Big East player of the year last season and Jones is one of the top off guards in the nation. Huge advantage to the Golden Eagles. As a whole, unlike UCLA, Marquette brings back nearly everyone from a team that finished 29-7 last year and won the Big East regular season and post season crown. They return 4 starters and 85% of their minutes. They’ve already faced the much tougher schedule with each of Marquette’s opponents ranking higher in Ken Pom than any of UCLA’s foes. The Eagles also have a played a high level opponent on the road this year as they beat Illinois 71-64 leading nearly the entire way. UCLA has played 3 home games vs teams all ranked 329th or lower. Despite playing 3 terrible opponents, the Bruins only hit 24% of their 3 pointers in those 3 games and their young starting backcourt is just 2 for 9 from deep this season. This veteran Marquette team has been more than comfortable away from home (road or neutral) with a 14-6 SU record (14-5-1 ATS) since the start of last season. We like the Golden Eagles to roll to an easy win on Monday night. | |||||||
11-17-23 | San Diego State v. St. Mary's +1 | Top | 79-54 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
#878 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s pick-em over San Diego State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - We’re getting a very good St Mary’s team off a loss blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead in a 61-57 loss vs Weber State. It was a rare poor shooting game for STM as they made only 40% of their shots overall and just 18% from beyond the arc. We feel it’s an anomaly that St Mary’s is hitting only 25% of their 3’s this season after making over 36% a year ago. They return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes (most in the West Coast Conference) from a team that was 27-8 last season. Not only that, the Gaels beat San Diego State last year 68-61 last season on a neutral court and that was an Aztec team that went to the National Championship game. We expect a regression this season from a SDSU team that must replace 2 starts and half of their minutes from last year’s team. St Mary’s has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation for years now and they will turn this game into a “crawl” which is not how San Diego State likes to play. Gaels HC Randy Bennett is fantastic at getting his team to bounce back after a loss as they are 13-1 ATS in that spot. At a pick-em type game we feel we’re getting the better overall team in the better situation. Take St Mary’s on Friday Night. | |||||||
11-16-23 | Wright State +9.5 v. Indiana | Top | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +10 or +9.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IU has been less than impressive to say the least in their 2 wins this season. They won their season opener by 6 points vs Florida Gulf Coast and then beat Army by 8 points on Sunday. They weren’t even close to covering either game losing to the spread by a combined 25 points. Those 2 opponents currently have an 0-5 record vs D1 opponents this season. The closest losses this season for both of those teams were vs Indiana. In those games the Hoosiers had a massive advantage from the foul line (+32 made FT’s in those 2 games combined) and still struggled to win those games. IU was only +3 on the boards in those games and now face a Wright State team that has more size than both those opponents and has been decent on the boards. This Indiana team is not playing well to start the season and Wright State is a very solid mid Major who will give IU all they can handle. The Raiders just faced Toledo (the 2nd best team in the MAC) and lost 78-77. They have the makings of a team that can pull the upset as they shoot the ball very well (43rd nationally in eFG% after finishing 44th last year) and they make their FT’s (76%). The Wright State program is used to success vs the big boys as head coach Nagy has faced 7 major conference teams during the regular season and he’s pulled off outright wins in 3 of those games vs NC State, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. This is a huge opportunity for WSU playing on the big stage vs a Big 10 opponent so they’ll bring it on Thursday. Indiana has bigger fish to fry this weekend facing reigning National Champs UConn at Madison Square Garden. Too many points here as we look for the Raiders to give IU a run for their money. | |||||||
11-15-23 | Utah Valley v. Charlotte -6.5 | 45-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
NOTE: This line jumped on us from a -3 range up to the -5.5 / -6.5 range quickly on us. This happened after we had written it up. So we will reduce our rating from a Top Game 10* to an 8* play but we still like this pick as you can see in our ORIGINAL analysis below: #690 ASA PLAY ON 8* Charlotte (-) over Utah Valley, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some nice value with Charlotte laying on 3 points at home. For comparison’s sake Utah Valley played @ Sam Houston State last week and they were an 8 point underdog. Now they are only +3 vs a Charlotte team that we rate very close to Sam Houston. The reason this line is lower is because UVU upset Sam Houston in OT while Charlotte is coming off a loss as an underdog to Liberty who we have rated as the top team in Conference USA so not a surprise. Let’s not forget in Utah Valley's first game of the season they struggled with Carroll College of Montana winning by only 8 points despite making 10 more FT’s and 4 more 3 pointers. UVU had a great season last year but lost everyone of note. They don’t return a single starter and only 3% of their minutes played from a year ago. They have a new head coach and are in rebuild mode. Here we get Charlotte, who has won 13 of their last 17 home games, off a loss which we like. The 49ers had a very good season last year with a 22-14 record capped off by winning the post-season CBI tournament. They return some key components to that team and our power ratings have them closer to a 5.5 or 6 point favorite in this one. Charlotte is one of the slowest paced teams in the country which could be a problem for UVU who loves to play up tempo and was right at home vs Sam Houston State who also plays an up and down game. The 49ers were a very good shooting team last year ranking in the top 20 nationally in eFG% and they sit in the top 65 after 2 games this season. They’ve also made almost 81% of their FT’s this season. Utah Valley has been terrible from deep making only 22% of their 3’s through the first 2 games and they’ve made only 62% of their FT’s. Not a recipe for success on the road. Take Charlotte here. | |||||||
11-14-23 | Bowling Green v. Oakland -125 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland -1 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Oakland is 0-2 on the season but both were road games vs Big 10 teams. The Grizzlies were more than competitive vs high level teams Ohio State (lost by 6) and Illinois (lost by 11). They easily covered both of those games by a combined 27 points. Now they take a big step down talent wise facing Bowling Green in their home opener. BG is 2-0, which is giving us some value here, but their wins have come against Chicago State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Arkansas State, both at home. In their most recent game on Saturday vs Arkansas State the Falcons won by 6 but it was a 2 point game with 19 seconds remaining. BG made 11 more FT’s in the game which was the difference. Now they take the road where they’ve been poor to say the least with a 7-21 SU record over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons have on 1 starter returning and just 21% of their minutes are back from last year which is the 2nd lowest total in the MAC. They are also trying to mesh a number of new transfers along with a new coach who came over from Southern Utah. Meanwhile on the Oakland bench is head coach Kampe who has 675 wins at the school which is the 4th most wins of any active coach. This is also a revenger for Oakland who lost 87-82 last year vs Bowling Green. The Grizzlies, who were favored by 8 in that game, blew a lead with under 1 minute remaining in that one. Now they are laying only a single point this year at home which is some solid value in our opinion. Their first 2 really tough road games have prepared them to get a home win here. Take Oakland. | |||||||
11-13-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +3.5 v. UTEP | Top | 76-89 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
#891 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UC Santa Barbara +3.5 over UTEP, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting the Big West reigning champs UCSB (27-8 record last year) off an opening season loss last week vs a solid Portland State team. The Gauchos played that game without PG Mitchell who was the Big West player of the year last season. He had a slight injury and was held out as a precaution but practiced over the weekend so we anticipate he’s back here. He’ll be teamed with 2 other veteran guards Anderson & Pierre-Louis giving UCSB one of the top backcourts out West. Those 2 combined for 35 points and 7 assists in Thursday’s 6 point loss and now we add Mitchell back in the mix. UTEP is coming off a 14-18 season and finished 10th in CUSA’s 11 team league. They step into this game with a 2-0 record but their opponents were McMurry College and University of Science and Arts. The Miners may be a bit overconfident after scoring 120+ points in both of those games and shooting over 60% (combined both games) vs horrific opponents. Now they face one of the better mid majors in the country with a solid core back (all of their key guards) that went to the NCAA tournament last season. The Gauchos were favored by 9.5 points in their loss vs Portland State and now they are facing a team we have similarly rated and UCSB is more than a full possession underdog (+3.5 as of this write up on Sunday night). Nice value here with the better team getting points in our opinion. | |||||||
04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
#711/712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – San Diego State vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We were on the Under in the SDSU vs FAU game on Saturday and came up short in the 72-71 final. Both teams shot very well from deep combining to make 18 of 40 three point attempts (45%). They also averaged 1.11 PPP and 1.12 PPP which was well above what those 2 defenses gave up this season (SDSU 0.90 PPP allowed / FAU 0.95 PPP allowed). They also combined to attempt 43 FT’s on the night. All of that led to a higher scoring game than expected. The UConn vs Miami game stayed Under by nearly 20 points (131 points scored and total was 150ish). The Huskies defense has been fantastic during this impressive tourney run shutting down a number of teams that have much better overall offenses than the SDSU team they will face on Monday night. UConn allowed 59 points to Miami who ranks as the 6th most efficient offense in the nation and averages 80 PPG. The game prior to that the Huskies faced a Gonzaga offense that ranks #1 nationally in efficiency and held them to 54 points which is 34 points below their season average of 88 PPG (#1 nationally). Now they face a San Diego State offense that ranks 68th nationally in offensive efficiency and has averaged just 67 PPG in the NCAA tourney. We expect the Aztecs won’t reach 60 points in this game. On the other end of the court, SDSU’s strength is obviously on the defensive end where they rank 4th nationally in efficiency and 3rd in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to allowing FAU to hit 71 points, the Aztecs had given up an average of just 57 PPG in the tourney. The Owls were able to be successful from 3 point land in that game (44%) but leading into that one, the San Diego State defense had allowed opponents to make only 17% of their 3’s in this tourney. They rank 3rd nationally on the season defending the arc which could be a problem for a Connecticut team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot. The Huskies have faced 4 fast paced teams in the Big Dance and the one slower paced team they played (St Mary’s) the 2 teams totaled 125 points. Both of these teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo so this shouldn’t be a fast paced game. UConn’s offense put up 72 on Saturday vs a Miami defense that ranks 99th in efficiency and prior to that they faced a fast paced Gonzaga team whose defense ranks 73rd in efficiency. They take a big step up here taking on one of the top defensive teams in the country. We don’t expect UConn to reach 70 in this game and we already mentioned that SDSU will have a tough time getting to 60. Under is the play in the National Championship Game. | |||||||
04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 38 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 132 Points – Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This match up is very similar to FAU’s Sweet 16 game vs Tennessee. We were on the Under in that game (129) and the 2 combined for just 117 points. We see a similar outcome for this game. SDSU and Tennessee compare very favorably in offensive efficiency (not a strength of either) and defensive efficiency (both top 5 in the nation). They are also almost identical in tempo with both being slow paced. The Aztecs defense has been great all season but they’ve stepped it up another notch in the Big Dance where they’ve allowed an average of just 57 PPG and held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 60 points. The only team that topped 60 points on SDSU was Alabama who averaged 82 PPG (7th nationally) but only had 64 vs the Aztecs. We were on the Over in SDSU’s most recent game vs a very efficiency Creighton offense who wants to push the ball and that game ended 57-56. FAU’s defense is underrated. They rank 29th nationally in defensive efficiency and 14th in eFG% allowed. The Owls have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 70 points or less and 3 of those opponents were fast paced teams (Memphis, KSU, and Farleigh Dickinson). The one slow paced team they faced was Tennessee and we mentioned how that game turned out. We don’t expect many 3 pointers in this game which will help the Under. FAU likes to shoot 3’s but they are facing a San Diego State defense thar ranks 2nd nationally defending the arc. In this tournament alone, the Aztecs have allowed opponents to make only 17% of their triples! On the other end of the court, San Diego State is not a great 3 point shooting team and they don’t shoot many (just 28% of their points come from deep – 277th nationally). The Final 4 is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston which is a huge NFL stadium. It’s often very tough to shoot in a venue like this as the backdrop is completely different than what teams are used to. This will be the 14th basketball game ever played at NRG Stadium and 8 of the first 13 went Under (62%) by an average of 6 points. Low scoring grinder here and we like the Under. | |||||||
03-30-23 | UAB -1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -1.5 over North Texas, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Both being from Conference USA, these 2 met 3 times this season with UNT winning 2 of those games. However, one of those wins for the Mean Green came without UAB’s top player Jordan Walker, in the lineup. Walker is the key for UAB as he leads the team in scoring at 22 PPG while averaging over 4 assists per game. In their other 2 games vs UNT with Walker in the lineup, UAB lost in double OT on the road by 3 points despite making only 3 FT’s with the Mean Green making 23 freebies. The other meeting was in the CUSA tourney and UAB dominated more than their 76-69 win would indicate. UAB led by 20 in that game (UNT never led) and the Blazers were ahead by double digits for 18 of the 20 minutes in the 2nd half. That was the most recent meeting only a few weeks ago on March 10th. While North Texas has a top notch defense (18th in efficiency) the UAB offense has seemed to figure out how to attack them. In the 3 games vs UNT, the Blazers shot a combined 45.2% vs a team that allowed 39% on the season. The Mean Green shot just 41% combined in those 3 games. In the last 2 meetings with Walker on the court, UAB averaged 1.13 and 1.11 PPP vs a team that has allowed 0.94 PPP this year. In their NIT semi final games, North Texas never led vs Wisconsin until 2 minutes remaining in the game. They won by just 2 points despite the fact the Badgers didn’t score a single point in the final 9 minutes of the game. The Blazers beat a very solid Utah Valley team in OT but they led for much of the game while UVU’s largest lead was 2 points. Since Walker returned from injury, the Blazers are 14-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and this North Texas team in OT. UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. UNT is not at 100% with starting center Ousmane not in Las Vegas due to a personal situation. While his back up Sissko has played well, Ousmane will be missed here as he had solid games in the 3 meetings vs UAB with 34 points and 17 rebounds combined in those games. At full strength we have UAB as the better team and we’ll lay the small number in the NIT Championship Game. | |||||||
03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -2.5 over Utah Valley State, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. They were without their best player, Jordan Walker, for 5 games in mid January and since he returned the Blazers are 13-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and North Texas in OT (in the NIT Final 4). They were FAVORED by 2 points in their loss in the CUSA Championship game vs FAU and now laying basically the same number vs Utah Valley State. Since February 1st, which coincides with Walker’s return from injury, UAB ranks as the 23rd most efficient team in college basketball ranking in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are coming off a very impressive 8 point road win @ Vanderbilt who was on a huge roll winning 12 of their previous 14 games including wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Michigan during that stretch. The Blazers won that game on the road by a solid margin despite taking 11 fewer shot attempts and making only 2 of 15 (13%) from beyond the arc. UAB was tested in what was a much better conference than most anticipated. Conference USA has a team in the Final 4 (FAU), 2 teams in the NIT Final 4 (UNT & UAB) and Charlotte won the CBI tournament. UVU was the top team in the WAC this season along with Sam Houston State. Those were the only 2 teams ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom and they finished just 1 game apart in league play with UVU winning the conference. Interestingly, Sam Houston State was also in the NIT and played UNT from Conference USA and got destroyed by 20 points. Just something to make note of as we rate North Texas and UAB very close overall. Utah Valley made it to Vegas by topping Cincinnati 74-68 at home. The Wolverines had a huge edge at the line in that game attempting 19 more FT’s than the Bearcats. These 2 have very comparable, solid defenses, but UAB is more efficient offensively (1.12 PPP to 1.08 PPP) and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walker. The Blazers should get plenty of extra opportunities as they are a great offensive rebounding team (8th nationally) facing a UVU team that ranks outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding. UAB also creates turnovers at a high rate (19%) while the Wolverines turn the ball over a lot (19%). We like UAB to cover this short number on Tuesday. | |||||||
03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State OVER 134.5 | Top | 56-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – San Diego State vs Creighton, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - Creighton’s offense has been rolling in the NCAA tourney scoring 72, 85, and 86 points. Their last 2 games they averaged 1.21 PPP and 1.24 PPP vs Baylor and Princeton reaching 161 total points in each of those wins. Since March 1st the Blue Jays have averaged 82 PPG on 1.20 PPP which ranks them 16th nationally during that time period. The Aztecs averaged 73 PPG on the season and they just put up 71 points on Alabama who has the 3rd most efficient defense in the nation. Bama only had 64 points but had a brutal night from beyond the arc making just 3 of 27 (11%) and that game and they put up only 0.86 PPP. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 35% in the game and it still reached 135 total points despite that brutal offensive effort. We expect the Aztecs offense to play much better here vs a Creighton defense that allowed 75 points to Princeton on Friday and has given up at least 70 points in 7 of their last 9 games. Creighton games have totaled at least 135 points in 11 straight games. The Jays will want to play fast and while San Diego State is a slower paced team, when they fast an up tempo team on Friday (Bama) the 2 teams combined for 140 shot attempts and 42 FT attempts. This total is set too low in our opinion and we’ll take the Over. | |||||||
03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State OVER 144 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 144 Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State, 6:10 PM ET - Our predictive analytics have this game finishing with 151 or more total points as we expect both teams to score in the high 70’s or above. Markquis Nowell of the Wildcats is a dynamic point guard that sees the floor extremely well and can shoot it too. He had 20-points and 19 assists in K-State’s win over Michigan State. KSU wants to play fast with the 43rd highest Adjusted Tempo rating in the nation and on average it takes them just 16.5 seconds to hoist a shot. The Wildcats rank 35th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. They also own a 52.2EFG% which is good for 82nd. Florida Atlantic is also very capable of point up points in a hurry with an offense that was 26th in OEFF at 1.146PPP. The Owls were average in Adjusted Tempo, but their average possession length was considerably faster. FAU has an EFG% of 54.3% which is 26 in the nation and they rank 45th or better in both 3PT% and 2PT%. Looking at the Owls most recent 13 games we find they scored 90 or more points four times. They scored 70+ in 10 of their last thirteen games. Kansas State has scored 73 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. KSU averaged over 76PPG and that’s with a majority of those games coming in Big12 play where 6 of the top 27 defensive efficiency teams reside. We love the spot for a shootout! Easy OVER! | |||||||
03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Texas -4 vs. Xavier, 9:45 PM ET - Texas is a team very capable of winning it all this year, Xavier is not. The Longhorns come from the best conference in the country and have played the 7th toughest schedule this season. Despite playing their brutal schedule the Horns rank 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.164-points per possession. Defensively they rank 10th allowing just .917PPP. They are top 56 in both offensive and defensive EFG%. Texas is 16-6 SU their last 22 games and the six losses came on the road in a hostile Big 12 environment. Xavier has a pair of unimpressive wins to get here as they beat Kennesaw State and a play in team in Pittsburgh. The Musketeers have the 7th most efficient offense in college hoops and are 62nd defensively. Our metrics tell us their strength of schedule isn’t as good some experts may suggest. They have some early season losses to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. As we mentioned, Xavier has solid defensive efficiency numbers but they did allow 74.5PPG on the season which ranked them 305th. Texas had a +10.6 average scoring differential which was 11th in the nation. We predict a double-digit win here. | |||||||
03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama UNDER 138 | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 138 San Diego State vs. Alabama, 6:30 PM ET - We get two different styles of play here as the Tide want to play fast with the 5th fastest Adjusted Tempo in college basketball, while San Diego State is 263rd in that same category. Both teams are somewhat similar offensively with the 18th most efficient offense for Bama and the 70th for the Aztecs. What each team does exceptionally well is play defense. San Diego State allows .908-points per possession which is 6th best in the nation. They own the 28th best EFG% defense and are 4th best in defending the 3-point line. As good as the Aztecs are, the Tide are better. Bama is 3rd in DEFF allowing .881PPP, rank 1st in EFG% defense, 3rd in 3PT% defense and 1st in FG% D. These two teams have trended to the Under when playing good competition or teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. In that scenario, the Aztecs have stayed Under in 6 straight, Alabama is 5-1 Under in their last six in the same situation. Bet UNDER! | |||||||
03-23-23 | Gonzaga v. UCLA -120 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA Bruins -120 vs. Gonzaga, 9:45 PM ET - We like the Bruins and their defense to get it done against the Zags. UCLA ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .878-points per possession. They held opponents to 31% 3PT shooting (29th) and 46.6% on 2-pointers which ranked 38th. They owned the 20th best EFG% defense at 46.5. Gonzaga does own the #1 ranked offense in terms of efficiency at 1.235PPP, but that number is inflated from playing in the West Coast Conference. The Bruins won’t be intimidated by the Zags offense as they recently held a very good Arizona offense, averaging 82PPG, to just 59 points. UCLA also owns a very good offense that is 21st in OEFF at 1.155PPP. The difference is the Zags aren’t on the Bruins level defensively as Gonzaga ranks 75th in DEFF. Gonzaga plays a tough early season schedule every season and this year was no different. They suffered 3 losses to quality teams such as UCLA when they lost to Baylor close and were blown out by Texas and Purdue. Gonzaga has won 11 straight games but 7 of those came against teams ranked 100th or worse. UCLA is 14-1 SU their last fifteen games with a +/- of +12.8PPG. UCLA is on a 5-1-1 ATS run their last seven, Gonzaga is on an 0-7 ATS streak in NCAA tournament games. | |||||||
03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | Top | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 129.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee, 9 PM ET - The numbers from our math model suggest this is going to be a low scoring game with a final total points scored of 120. The Vols defense is rated the best in the country when it comes to efficiency ratings as they give up just .870-points per possession. They hold opponents to the 3rd lowest EFG% at 42.7%, rank 1st in 3PT% allowed at 26.4% and are 11th in overall FG% defense. To better put this into perspective the Vols defense held Alabama, the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 82.3PPG to just 59 points in mid-February. Tennessee just held a Duke team that was averaging 72PPG to 52-points. The Volunteers also prefer to play at a slower pace of play as they rank 278th in Adjusted Tempo and 240th in Average Possession Length at 18.1. Florida Atlantic can also play some defense as they allow just .954-points per possession which ranks them 34th. They have the 15th best EFG% defense at 45.9% and defend the 3-point line and inside the arc well. The Owls are average in tempo ranking 143rd. The Vols are on a 7-3 Under streak, Florida Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under run. We trust the Models numbers on this one and expect a very low scoring contest. | |||||||
03-22-23 | UAB v. Vanderbilt | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Vanderbilt pick’em over UAB, 7 PM ET - We have to side with Jerry Stackhouse and the Commodores at home against the UAB Blazers. Vandy finished the season strong with 12 wins in 14 games and just survived a scare against Michigan. The Dores have several impressive wins on their resume with 2 over Kentucky, they beat Tennessee, Florida twice, Mississippi State and Auburn. The overall schedule strength of Vandy is 32nd in the nation and they still have impressive efficiency numbers, ranking 24 in OEFF and 148 in DEFF. UAB is no slouch and have played extremely well themselves with 14 wins in their last sixteen games but 12 of those were against teams ranked outside of the top 100 per Ken Pom. In fact, 6 of those W’s came against teams ranked 200th or worse. Vandy was 14-5 SU at home in the tough SEC, UAB was 6-5 SU away. | |||||||
03-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 134.5 | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 134.5 Wisconsin @ Oregon, 9 PM ET - The Ducks are dealing with injuries with several starters missing both NIT games thus far. Reports are they will have All-Pac 12 starting center N’Faly Dante back for this game against Wisconsin and potentially Jermaine Couisnard. Those are important pieces for a Ducks team that was 53rd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .979PPP. Oregon held opponents to 66.7PPG on the season on 41.7% shooting. The Ducks just faced UCF who is very similar to Wisconsin when it come to pace of play as the Knights averaged 64.8 possessions per game which was 307th in the nation. This Badger team is even slower yet, ranking 342nd at 63.5 and it takes them on average 19.6 seconds per possession to get a shot up (348th). Wisconsin also knows a little something about defense ranking 27th in the country in DEFF allowing just .950-points per possession. The Badgers were a very poor shooting team on the season at 41.7% (317th) and scored just 65.2PPG. Bucky is coming off a game at home where they shot 54% overall which is unlikely to happen again, especially on the road. Oregon has an adjusted tempo of 66.7 which ranks them 205th so they prefer a slower pace also. The bet here is UNDER. | |||||||
03-20-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Charlotte | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #607 UW Milwaukee +6 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte has a bit of an advantage having played Saturday while UWM is coming off a game Sunday versus Stetson. These two teams have contrasting styles of play as Milwaukee is 12th in the nation in tempo or pace while Charlotte is one of the slowest at 362. We are fine if Charlotte gets the tempo they want as the dog in a low possession game is always attractive. These two teams come into this post season with different results as the UWM Panthers finished the season on a 3-1 streak after losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament. Charlotte on the other hand lost two straight heading into the CUSA Tourney then lost to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers had played another team from the Horizon earlier this season in Detroit Mercy, who finished 5 games below UWM in conference play, and lost by 21 and won by 2 in OT. The Panthers beat Detroit Mercy twice this season. Charlotte averages 67PPG which makes covering a number as large as 6-points difficult. The 49ers average +/- on the season is +4.1PPG, UW Milwaukee has a +/- of +4.5PPG. The Panthers stay hot and keep this one within the margin. | |||||||
03-19-23 | Creighton +1.5 v. Baylor | Top | 85-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +1.5 over Baylor, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Blue Jays as a slight favorite so we’re getting some value here. Both of these teams played very difficult schedules this season (Baylor 5th SOS / Creighton 13th SOS) and the Jays have the better overall efficiency margin. While both teams average right around 77 PPG, Baylor has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and Creighton has a slight edge in eFG%. These 2 are close offensively. Defensively the Blue Jays are much better this season. They rank 14th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP while Baylor ranks 99th allowing 1.01 PPP. The Bears rank 232nd in eFG% allowed and inside the arc they have been poor defensively ranking 315th. They are, and have been, the worst defense in the Big 12 for the entire season. Struggling to defend inside isn’t a great recipe vs Creighton with 7’1 Kalkbrenner in the middle. Yesterday vs NC State, he was 10 of 13 inside the arc and scored 31 points. Creighton made 64% of their shots inside the arc and should have lots of success again in that area. On the other side, Baylor pretty much relies on the 3 point shot and getting to the FT line. They get very little inside the arc with only 42% of their points which is 358th nationally. Creighton is solid at defending the 3 point line only 13% of their opponents points come from the FT line (3rd least in the country). Baylor will really need to hit a high percentage of triples to win this game in our opinion. We’ll take the better defense and the offense that can score inside and out to win this one. Creighton is the call. | |||||||
03-19-23 | Michigan State v. Marquette UNDER 140.5 | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
#841/842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 140.5 Points – Michigan State vs Marquette, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - We were on the Under in the 1st round game Vermont vs Marquette and we’ll stick with that in today’s Golden Eagles match up with Michigan State. After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. In Friday’s NCAA opener they limited Vermont to 61 points on 0.97 PPP. All 4 of those defensive efforts were impressive and this Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. After struggling defensively their final few games of the regular season, MSU head coach Tom Izzo made it clear to his team they needed to pick it up on that end of the court. They took that to heart and held a good USC offense that averages 73 PPG to just 62 points on Friday. Even after the game Izzo stressed how his team won because they played better defense. Both defenses force opponents into long possessions with Marquette opponents taking 18.7 seconds per possession (7th best in the nation) and MSU opponents taking 18.3 seconds per possession (38th). MSU ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency and while Marquette struggled early in the season on that end of the court, they actually rank 22nd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. Offensively Marquette likes to play fast although they’ve slowed down considerably as of late. They’ve averaged just 68 PPG in regulation in the post season (conference & NCAA) and MSU will slow this game down (Sparty 304th in adjusted tempo). Neither team is great at offensive rebounding (both ranked outside the top 220) and neither scores many points from the FT line (both outside the top 300 in % of points from the charity stripe). We project this game to land in the mid 130’s and we love the value on the Under. | |||||||
03-19-23 | Liberty v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -3 over Liberty, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Our concern with Wisconsin in the NIT is would they come with intensity for a program that had been in the NCAA tourney 22 of the previous 23 years. They answered that question last Tuesday rolling over a solid Bradley team by 19 points. The same Bradley team that won the Missouri Velley regular season title over Drake who went to the Dance and nearly upset Miami FL. The Badgers are definitely battle tested playing the 15th most difficult schedule in the country this season. They were just a few plays from comfortably making the NCAA tourney. 5 of their last 6 losses came by 2 points or less or in OT and that was vs a tough Big 10 schedule. Some of their tight losses this year including Kansas in OT, Purdue by 2, Northwestern by 2 & 3 points, Michigan State by 4, and Rutgers by 1. This team seem re-energized last Tuesday as if a stressful weight was lifted off their shoulders. They scored 81 points, their 2nd highest total this season, vs a Bradley defense that ranked #1 in the MVC (efficiency). Liberty had a big win over Villanova which we feel is keeping this line a bit lower than it really should be. It was a 5 point win, however Nova played the game without arguably their 2 best players, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. On top of that, Liberty was +7 from the FT line and made 10 three pointers to just 4 for the Wildcats. Thus, the Flames outscored Villanova by 25 points from the FT line + 3 point range and only won by 5. Prior to beating the Wildcats minus their 2 top players, Liberty had played a grand total of 3 teams this season ranked in the top 100 and lost all 3 by double digits. With this line set slow low, we’re really just looking for Wisconsin to win at home and we like them to get it done on Sunday. | |||||||
03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 127.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 127.5 Points – Northwestern vs UCLA, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Two slow paced teams, UCLA 235th and NW 309th in adjusted tempo, that play very good defense. UCLA ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and the Wildcats rank 19th. The Bruins allow just 60 PPG (7th nationally) while NW gives up only 62 PPG (20th). More recently, since February 1st both of these defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in efficiency. NW has allowed less than 70 points in 14 of their last 16 games while UCLA has allowed less than 70 in 12 of their last 14 games. Since losing @ USC on January 26th, the Bruins have held 11 of their last 14 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP. Offensively neither team is overly efficient away from home this season. Both barely average 1.00 PPP on the road and neither is a great shooting team. Northwestern ranks 316th in eFG% and UCLA ranks 155th. The Bruins score very little from beyond the arc (333rd in % of points from deep) and while NW takes more 3’s, they only shoot 32% from out there (275th). Lastly neither team gets to the FT line very often so we don’t look for many freebies in this game. This will be a grinder that should stay Under barring any late fouling (scramble) situations. | |||||||
03-18-23 | Duke -3 v. Tennessee | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#803 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 2:40 PM ET - Duke is playing fantastic basketball right now. They’ve won 10 in a row and ran through the ACC tourney rather easily winning 3 games by an average of 15 points per game vs Pitt, Miami, and UVA, all NCAA tourney teams. The Devils then destroyed a solid Oral Roberts team (won by 23) who came into the game with a 30-4 record and a team many thought had a chance to make some waves in this tournament. Since February 1st, this Duke team is rated as the 9th most efficient team in the country and prior to that they were ranked 30th (per Bart Torvik stats). This team is definitely trending in the right direction. Tennessee not so much. They’ve lost 7 of their last 13 games after starting 18-3 and they struggled to beat Louisiana in round one winning by 3 points. Defensively the Vols have remained solid all season but their offense has fallen off a cliff the 2nd half of the season. Since February 1st, Tennessee is ranked outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and they are now playing without starting PG Zeigler who was their 2nd leading scored and averaged over 5 assists per game along with being their best perimeter defender. Pretty much the opposite of Duke, the Volunteers were ranked #1 nationally in efficiency from the start of the season through the end of January and they’ve dropped to 30th since then. Over their last 5 games Tennessee is scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 65 PPG. For the season on defense they allow 37% shooting and just 26% from deep but over their last 5 that numbers have increased to 43% and 36%. Meanwhile Duke is winning by an average of 15 PPG over their last 5 shooting 49% and allowing 35%. Two teams trending in opposite directions and we’ll take the hot, confident team. Duke is the play. | |||||||
03-17-23 | Arizona State v. TCU -5.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
#798 ASA TOP PLAY ON TCU -5.5 over Arizona State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rough spot for ASU in this game having just played in Dayton 48 hours ago they are now set for a game in Denver. TCU has been off since last Friday so they should be ready to go in this one. We really liked this Horned Frogs team all season as long as they were healthy. They lost their top player Mike Miles for a stretch of 5 games in early February and went 1-4 in those contests. They were also missing starting forward Peavy for 5 games just prior to Miles going down. When this team was healthy they destroyed Kansas on the road, beat Baylor on the road, topped Texas, and took 2 of 3 from Kansas State all top 3 seeds in this NCAA tourney. They gave a red hot Texas team all they could handle in the Big 12 tourney losing by just 6. This is a very deep Horned Frog team that ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes which should come in handy in the high altitude in Denver facing a Sun Devil team that could be fatigued after playing in the eastern time zone 48 hours ago. ASU is coming off an unreal offensive performance on Wednesday beating Nevada 98-73. As you can expect the Devils shot WAY above their season averages hitting 64% of their shots (they average 42%) and 52% of their 3’s (they average 31%). Despite that effort, this is not a good shooting team ranking outside the top 315 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%. They now face a rested TCU defense that ranks 21st nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th at defending the arc. TCU has played the tougher schedule (11th SOS / USC has played 37th SOS) and despite that the Frogs have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. Lay it with TCU. | |||||||
03-17-23 | Vermont v. Marquette UNDER 144.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
#743/744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 144.5 Points – Vermont vs Marquette, Friday at 2:45 PM ET - After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. All 3 of those defensive efforts were impressive, especially the final 2 as both UConn and Xavier are ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency. This Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. They are facing a Vermont offense that ranks 98th in efficiency, however they haven’t faced many top tier defensive teams this season. Their conference, America East, doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The only top 70 defenses they’ve faced all season were St Mary’s, USC, Iona, and Yale. The Catamounts scored 53, 57, 50, and 44 points in those games respectively. Vermont is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (313th in adjusted tempo) and they know they have to slow this game down to have a chance. They were solid defensively this season ranking #1 in the conference in efficiency. Neither team is very good on the offensive glass which will mean very few 2nd chance points. Neither team fouls very much and when it comes to percentage of points at the FT line they both rank outside the top 325. Vermont makes this a slow paced game and Marquette’s defense continues to shine. Under here. | |||||||
03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier OVER 154 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
#787/788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154 Points – Kennesaw State vs Xavier, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Two fast paced teams going at it here in game where we should see lots of offensive possessions. Both rank in the top 100 in offensive possessions per game while Xavier is 39th nationally in adjusted tempo and Kennesaw State is 121st. The Musketeers rank 12th in the country in scoring averaging 82 PPG while the Owls aren’t far behind averaging 76 PPG (89th in the nation). On the other end of the court, neither of these teams is all that great defensively. When it comes to guarding the 3 point arc, both are poor ranking outside the top 230 and they are facing offenses that are very good at hitting from deep with Xavier making 39.5% (3rd in the nation) and KSU making 37% (34th in the nation). The Owls defense ranked 212th this season in eFG% allowed despite the majority of their games coming in a conference (Atlantic Sun) that had only 3 teams ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Xavier’s defense has been shaky all season allowing 74.5 PPG (305th nationally). These 2 have been cashing Overs all season long with a combined record of 40-24-2 to the Over. Should be an exciting game to watch if you like offense. High scoring and we like the Over. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,310 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Joey Tron | $512 |
Ross Benjamin | $483 |
Ricky Tran | $405 |
Jimmy Boyd | $370 |
Sean Murphy | $269 |
Sean Higgs | $214 |
Kyle Hunter | $176 |
Mike Lundin | $162 |