Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-08-16 | Washington State +6.5 v. Stanford | Top | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Stanford Cardinal, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #407 | |||||||
10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ARIZONA CARDINALS: This might be your last shot to get great value with the Cardinals who were picked by many experts (not ASA) to represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. It has obviously been a disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals (1-3) after going 13-3 in the regular season a year ago in winning the NFC West. So this week we get them as a small favorite on the road with the line being lower than normal because they will be without starting QB Carson Palmer. But is that necessarily a bad thing? After throwing 35 TD to just 11INT's a year ago, Palmer has not looked good so far this year with just 6 TD's to 5 INT's while completing just 58.5% of his passing attempts. Granted, QB Drew Stanton looked awful in his short relief appearance last week against the Rams but now he's gotten extra reps all week with an opportunity to prepare for the starting job. But we don't expect Stanton to be put in a position to carry the Cardinals this week, he'll just have to manage the game and hand the ball off to RB David Johnson. Johnson leads the NFL in all-purpose yards and is 7th in rushing yards (300yds) at 4.7 yards per carry. That is significant here as the Niners are 22nd worst in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowing 4.3 yards per carry and LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game at 140+. Another key factor in this matchup is the loss of LB NaVorro Bowman for the 49ers who has 236 tackles the past two seasons. Arizona is 7th in the NFL in total offense compared to San Fran's 30th overall rankings, are better defensively (8th total D versus SF #26th) and backed into a corner this early in the season. Let's not forget this Cards team was 7-1 SU last year on the road and are 12-2 ATS their last fourteen roadies against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona also has some impressive backing when coming off a spread loss and it all adds up to a win here even without their starting QB. Lay it! | |||||||
10-03-16 | Giants +4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Vikes sit at 3-0 on the season despite scoring only 3 offensive TD’s the entire season. While we understand their defense is very good, this team needs to start putting some offensive numbers up or they will start losing some games. We think their first loss comes tonight. The Giants have a big edge offensively. They are averaging 6.5 yards per play while the Vikes are averaging just 4.8 yards per play. New York is off a home loss vs Washington and this team has the best road spread record in the NFL since the start of the 2007 season at 44-30-2 ATS. The Giants will have some extra motivation tonight as well after getting whipped by Minny last year 49-17. The game wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate. The Vikings outgained the Giants by just 5 yards in the game despite running 11 more offensive plays. Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions while Minny did not have a turnover. Due to the turnovers Minnesota scored on a pick 6 and had TD drives of 4 yards and 18 yards. The game snowballed out of control and NY just couldn’t get back into it. Let’s face it, Minnesota is 3-0 but they’ve been outgained by an average of 30 YPG this season. They average only 265 YPG on offense (last in the NFL) and with Adrian Peterson out along with starting LT Kalil, we don’t look for them to light up a Giant defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense. The Giants are 2-1 but they have a +57 YPG differential on the season. They are far superior offensively, as we’ve stated, and while Minny’s defense is better, it’s not by a wide margin. We’ll call for the Giants to win a close game tonight. | |||||||
10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4 | Top | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4 over KC, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Steelers will be in a foul mood here after getting embarrassed at Philly last week. The potent Pitt offense was only able to put up 3 points in that game. Expect a much better effort this week at home on Sunday Night. We are not sold on KC. They’re games have gone as follows…A come from WAY behind (down 24-3) overtime win at home against a middle of the pack San Diego team, a 7-point loss @ Houston, and a home win over the Jets last week helped by New York’s EIGHT, yes EIGHT turnovers. The struggling KC offense has scored only 22 points the last 2 weeks (subtracting defensive TD). They’ve scored a total of ONE offensive TD the last 2 games. We think it will be for them to keep up with the Steelers offense that will come out angry this week. Not only are the Steelers coming off a terrible effort last week, they also remember last year’s trip to KC where they lost 23-13 in QB Landry Jones first start of his career (Big Ben was injured). Pitt RB Le’veon Bell ran for 117 yards in that game and he is back from suspension this week. Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home when coming off an outright loss. We expect the Steeler to win this game at home and when they win at home, they usually control the game. Of Pittsburgh’s last 17 home wins, 15 have come by at least a TD. The Pitt offense rolls this week and the Chiefs can’t keep up. Lay it with the Steelers. | |||||||
10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +1.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a terrible match up for Seattle in our opinion. First of all, you have an angry Jets team that was smoked last Sunday @ KC. The Chiefs won 24-3 but only scored 10 points on offense and were basically given the game by Jet QB Fitzpatrick who threw 6 interceptions. NY had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game. Expect a big bounce back at home this week. Seattle won a home game against a tired SF team that had played on the east coast a week earlier. QB Russell Wilson came into the game banged up and then injured his ankle. Even if he plays here he will not be at 100%. That’s a key in this game as we expect the Jets defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. Seattle’s offensive line is bad. They have 4 new starters from last year and they are already banged up on the line. With Wilson’s mobility compromised, this could be a long day for the Seattle offense. Similar to when they traveled to LA to face the Rams a few weeks ago, who also have a solid defensive line, and lost 9-3. If Wilson doesn’t play, which he may not, the Seahawks will go with rookie Trevon Boykin. Long travel to the east coast and an early start time don’t favor the Hawks here. This is a huge game for the Jets who are 1-2 on the season. Seattle has played the Dolphins, Rams, and Niners so far which is lower level NFL competition. They lost one of those games and struggled to get by Miami at home. New York has played Cincy, Buffalo, and KC, two of which were playoff teams last year. Anytime we get a potential mismatch in the trenches with an underdog, we have to take a long look. Take the Jets. | |||||||
10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 47 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Cleveland @ Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We look for a shootout here. After a terrible offensive showing in week 1 vs Philly, the Browns offense has played well the last 2 weeks. In hindsight, we understand the 10 spot vs the Eagle defense as they have been dominant allowing only 17 points in 2 games since. Cleveland actually outgained Baltimore & Miami each of the last 2 weeks and scored 44 points combined putting up 817 yards on the process. We really like the way the Washington offense is playing as well. They’ve scored 23 & 29 points the last 2 weeks and they’ve actually had chances to put up quite a bit more. They’ve left quite a few points on the field. To give you an idea, the Skins have punted only 4 times in the last 2 games. So we have two offenses that are playing well vs two bad defenses. Both stop units are allowing over 400 YPG and they sit at or over 6 YPP allowed. Cleveland has allowed 29, 25, and 30 points. Washington has allowed 38, 27, and 27 points. This number is set too low. Take the OVER. | |||||||
10-01-16 | Utah v. California -2.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California (-) over Utah, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #184 | |||||||
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 46 | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Miami @ Cincinnati, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET Cincy has struggled to put points on the board this year but they have put up solid yardage. They have scored 16, 17, and 23 points, however against defenses not named Denver, the Bengals have averaged almost 400 YPG (397 to be exact). They are obviously moving the ball averaging over 6 YPP so the points will come in due time. That starts tonight vs a Miami defense that has looked shaky the last 2 weeks. The Fins have allowed 31 & 24 points each of the last 2 weeks vs teams with big inexperience at the QB position. Last week Cleveland rookie QB Cody Kessler put up 24 points and 244 yards passing in his first ever start. A week earlier, the Pats Jimmy Garoppolo put up 31 points and 233 yards passing in his 2nd start ever. Both teams eclipsed 400 yards of total offense on Miami’s defense. We look for Cincy to do the same. Offensively, Miami has actually looked very good since their tough outing to start the season @ Seattle. In the last 2 games they’ve topped 400 yards in each and scored 24 & 30 points. The Bengal defense has been a disappointment this year allowed 22 or more points in all 3 games. Both offenses are ranked in the top 5 in the NFL in pace averaging one snap every 25 seconds. This line has risen from 44 to 46.5 and we agree with the move. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion and we’ll grab the OVER. | |||||||
09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are now 0-2 and backed into a must win corner. We felt they would be improved this year and their stats in the first two games were actually solid. They outgained Green Bay and had a chance to win late but lost a tight one. After that emotional setback, Jacksonville had to travel cross country to San Diego last Sunday. They laid an egg getting whipped 38-14. However they did outgain San Diego with some offensive movement late in the game but 3 turnovers and a flat as a pancake showing did them in. We expect them to play much better this week and they get one of their top offensive weapons back at RB Ivory is expected to make his season debut. Baltimore is 2-0 and this game isn’t nearly as important to them. Let’s face it. The Ravens are undefeated but have played two of the worst teams in the NFL and have not looked dominant in either game. They topped Buffalo 13-7 at home and then had to come from behind to win @ Cleveland last week. The Browns just out to a 20-2 lead in the first quarter and then proceeded to lay an egg and score zippo the rest of the way and Baltimore won 25-20. The Ravens are on the road for the 2nd straight week and since 2012 this team has just a 9-16 record away from home. Jags are the play here. | |||||||
09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We swallowed the point last week with the Panthers over the 49ers and it turned out pretty well for us with Carolina winning 46-27 as a 13-point chalk. The Panthers dominated that game with +10 first downs, 430 yards of total O and a +12 minute time of possession edge. Now the Panthers should be focused on a Minnesota team that is 2-0 and the defending NFC North Champs. But we're not sold on the Vikings and have found some holes or chinks in their armor. They stand 2-0 with wins over the Tennessee Titans who had just 3 wins last year and a Green Bay team that is just 6-8 SU their last 14 games dating back to last season. In two games this year the Vikings have less than 100 total yards of rushing and are now without RB Adrian Peterson for the year. Minnesota was outgained in the opener by the Titans and barely outgained the Packers last week in their grand opening of their new stadium. Carolina has one of the best offenses in the NFL and have way too many great statistical rankings to list here (OK, we'll give a few: #2 in 3rd down conversions, 1st scoring 33PPG, 5th points per play, 3rd yards per game at 431). While the Vikings are one dimensional offensively right now and over-rated defensively based on the fact they've benefitted from 6 turnovers in the first two games of the season. In terms of 'O' the Vikes are 28th worst in yards per game at 292, 26th in yards per play, last in rushing and 17th in scoring offense at 21PPG. Carolina has won 14 straight home games and are 11-5 their last 16 as a home chalk. Lay the points with the Panthers. | |||||||
09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Detroit @ Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Being located in Wisconsin we obviously pay extra attention to the Packers and after two horrible offensive showings we expect a breakout game for Rodgers and company on Sunday against a banged up Lions defense. On the other side of the ball we expect the Lions to put up points too in what sets up to be a high scoring shootout. Green Bay's pass defense has been suspect at best and will be tested here by the Lions and QB Stafford who is completing 67% of his pass attempts (8th best in the NFL) for 285 yards per game (7th best). The Packers have allowed 277 yards passing per game which is 20th worst in the league. In contrast to Stafford, Aaron Rodgers is completing just 57% of his pass attempts which is 29th worst in the NFL for 189.5 yards per game (31st) which is clearly and aberration. The Lions are 5th overall in the NFL at 6.3 yards per play while the Packers are 30th at 4.5YPPL, again the Packers number is not the norm. Detroit is without their three starting linebackers which will provide opportunities for short underneath routes to the tightends and running backs out of the backfield. Both of these teams played in low scoring games last week after the Packers/Jags combined for 50 points in week #1 while the Lions/Colts combined for 74 points. These two NFC North rivals will revert back to how they played in week #1 in what should be a shootout. | |||||||
09-24-16 | Washington -12 v. Arizona | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -112 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington (-) over Arizona, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET | |||||||
09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET We’ll gladly fade the rookie QB Carson Wentz making the first road start of his career AND on Monday Night! Wentz looked solid last week in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field. And let’s not forget they were facing the hapless Cleveland Browns who some experts predict will be the worst NFL team in years. We were actually on Cleveland last week and if they can’t show up and play well (they didn’t) against an average team with a rookie QB, we agree the Browns are now officially in big trouble. Back to this game…Chicago battled Houston, a playoff team from last year, fairly well last week on the road. The Bears led entering the 4th quarter before falling 23-14. That loss makes this a huge home game for them especially with another road game on deck @ Dallas next week. Despite the loss last week, head coach John Fox has proven he can turn teams around quickly and we expect Chicago to be much improved. Fox took over Carolina in 2002 and went 7-9 his first year followed up by 11-5 in year 2. He then took over Denver in 2011 and went just 8-8 but followed that up with a 13-3 mark in his second season. It’s now his 2nd season in Chicago. Versus a rookie coach and rookie QB we look for Fox and the Bears to pick up a must win at home on Monday night. Lay it. | |||||||
09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 43 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43, Green Bay @ Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET More often than not if we’re zeroing in on a total in a division game, we lean UNDER. Long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. Entering this season, the overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. We rate BOTH of these defenses ahead of their offenses at this point and yes that includes Green Bay. Truth be told, the Packers offense was pretty average last year putting up just 23 PPG and we consider them a work in progress early in the season. Jordy Nelson returns but he’ll take awhile to get back into top form. Last week the Packer offense didn’t even reach 300 yards of total offense vs Jacksonville. Now they face a Minnesota defense that is very solid and the strength of the Viking team. Minnesota put up 25 points last week but 14 of those were from the defense. They only scored 1 offensive TD. They move to Bradford at QB this week but he’s only been with the team for 2 weeks so don’t expect any offensive explosions vs this solid Green Bay defense. We like the UNDER as the Packers & Vikings open the brand new US Bank stadium. | |||||||
09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -13 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re not into laying huge numbers in the NFL very often, however if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it and we will. The Panthers obviously have Super Bowl aspirations and with their opening week loss @ Denver, they can’t afford to lose this one. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this game as well having played on their opener on Thursday. San Fran, on the other hand, had to play on Monday night and looked very good in their 28-0 win. Now on a short week they have to travel to the east coast to face one of the top teams in the NFL. We saw a similar situation last year when the Niners opened on Monday night with a home win over Minnesota and then had to travel to Pittsburgh in week 2. The result of that game? Steelers 43, Niners 18. The San Francisco defense looked good shutting down the Rams horrendous offense. It will be a different story this week facing a Carolina offense that led the league in scoring last year at 31 PPG. Offensively, the Niners have one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL behind QB Gabbert. They must run the ball well to be successful. They did just that vs the Rams but now face a rested and angry Carolina defense that didn’t play well in week 1 with Denver running the ball very well. That’s the same Panther defense that allowed only 86 YPG rushing last year (4th in the NFL) so you can bet they’ll be ready here. If SF gets down big, which we predict they will, they have very little “come back” ability. This game has 28-7 or 35-10 written all over it. Carolina in a blowout. | |||||||
09-18-16 | Saints +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +4.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re surprised to see the Giants as such a hefty favorite here. We were on the GMen last week vs the Cowboys and got a push, however we weren’t fairly underwhelmed with their performance. They were playing a Dallas team starting a rookie QB and needed a late TD (6:00 minutes remaining) to get a 1-point win. On top of that the Giants had fewer first downs and less yardage. Not very impressive. Now off an important division win we can see this one as not being quite as important as it is to the Saints. That’s because New Orleans lost at home 35-34 to the Raiders who scored late and went for 2 to get the win. The Saints blew a 14 point 3rd quarter lead but had more first downs and outgained Oakland. Drew Brees was fantastic throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD’s. We expect him to have a huge day against a New York defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards last week. This one is probably going to be a shootout with the total set a 53. Even if New Orleans gets behind, they are not out of this one with their potent offense. Their “back door ability” if they do get behind has to be taken into account as well. The Giants haven’t had a great home field advantage as they’ve won only 4 of their last 13 games here. We look for this one to go to the wire and we’ll grab the generous points. | |||||||
09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Rotation #174 - 10* TOP Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET: Oklahoma State certainly struggled last week hosting Central Michigan and, as a 20 point favorite, that certainly should not have happened. However, even with a game not played well, the Cowboys still should have won the game by a 27-24 count. Oklahoma State had the ball and was running the clock out when an intentional grounding penalty on fourth down resulted and the referees ended up making a mistake as they allowed the Chippewas to have down (ball was around midfield) even though the clock was at zero. By rule, the game truly should have already been over. However, the fact is that a mistake was made and, Central Michigan ended up with an unbelievable win when they completed a hail mary pass that was short of the end zone but then was lateraled for the game-winning touchdown. The Cowboys know they gave a poor effort last week but they also know they didn't deserve to lose the game. Coach Mike Gundy is in his 12th year with Oklahoma State and, as such, he is veteran presence for a team that also came into this season with plenty of returning talent. OSU returned 16 starters from last year and also returned a total of 38 players that were on the two-deep bowl roster. This type of experienced team is going to come out fighting hard this week after what happened last week. It is a mature group both physically and mentally and the Cowboys won 10 games last year and are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time too. The Panthers are off of an in-state rivalry win over Penn State and now are traveling to face a talented Big 12 team. Pitt hasn't had to travel to face a Big 12 school in over 10 years and this is truly a tough travel spot considering the Panthers have their ACC opener on deck. While it is true that Oklahoma State also has their conference opener on deck, the Cowboys scheduling spot is much easier as they are playing their 3rd straight home game to open up the season. The Cowboys have a bit of an "us against the world" attitude this week and they have resolved to put last week's loss behind them by coming out with an "A game" effort that should leave no doubt on the scoreboard. Even with last week's loss, Oklahoma State is on a 27-14 ATS run as a home favorite against FBS schools. The Panthers season opener this year was against an FCS school so Pittsburgh is getting their first truly tough test on the road this week. The Panthers relied heavily on their ground game to get past Penn State last week but Oklahoma State is allowing only 2.1 yards per carry so far this season. In terms of the aerial attacks of these two teams there truly is no comparison as the Cowboys were 7th in the nation last year with 353 passing yards per game while Pitt was 99th with only 190.6 yards per game through the air. The Panthers will want to control the trenches and get their ground game going but the Cowboys have been strong against the run as noted above and also are going to be extremely physical in this game at the line of scrimmage because this team is extremely fired up after taking the ultimate unthinkable loss last week. Pitt is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Look for home domination in Stillwater, OK Saturday afternoon. | |||||||
09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills OVER 40 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points, NY Jets @ Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS This total opened 42 and has been pushed down to 40. Now we feel the value is on the OVER and we’ll grab it. Last year’s two totals in this AFC East match up were 41.5 and 41. Both went under hitting 39 each time, however a lot of points were left on the field. The Jets lost both games 22-17 but had the ball deep in Buffalo territory in both games only to come up short. In the first game last year, the Jets actually threw 3 interception in their final 3 possessions. Buffalo struggled offensively last week @ Baltimore scoring just 7 points but they only ran 48 plays (Baltimore ran 66). We expect them to put more on the board this week as they have scored at least 20 in 9 straight games vs the Jets. New York looked solid offensively last week vs a very good Cincy defense putting up 22 points on 5.2 YPP. Weather looks perfect and we like both to get to 20 here pushing this OVER the total. | |||||||
09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets -1 over Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS Both teams are 0-1 so the desperation will be alive for each. With that being said, if both bring their “A” games, the Jets are simply the better team. The Bills offense looked horrendous against a decent but not great Baltimore defense. Buffalo had only 160 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play. They crossed midfield only TWICE the enter game. Now they face a Jets defense that ranked 5th in the NFL last season and looked very solid against a potent Bengal offense last week. Meanwhile the Jets offense looked solid scoring 22 points on 5.2 YPP vs a very good Cincy defense. The Bengals kicked a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining to pick up the 23-22 win. The flyboys scored on 3 of their 5 first half possessions and had a 22 yard FG blocked on one of this first half drives. The Jets will have a little extra motivation here as well as they lost both meetings last year by the same exact 22-17 score. A closer look reveals that New York actually outplayed Buffalo and turnovers were the difference (as they are in most NFL games). In the two games combined, the Jets had 30 first downs (to 31 for Buffalo), 618 yards (to 575 for Buffalo), 5.4 yards per play (to 4.2 YPPG for Buffalo), and a whopping 7 turnovers for the Jets (just 1 for Buffalo). Even with that turnover disparity, the Jets had the ball deep in Buffalo territory late the game with a chance to win. In BOTH games. Where the line sits we basically have to pick the winner and we think that will be the better team – J-E-T-S! | |||||||
09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5, LA Rams @ San Francisco, Monday at 10:20 PM ET We like UNDER in the LA Rams versus the SF 49ers on Monday night. Last year in the two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals they combined to score 33 and 35 points with the later coming in OT. Vegas had Totals on those two contests of 41 and 39 respectively and now have a much higher number here in the season opener. The Niners had the lowest scoring offense in the NFL last year at just 14.9PPG while the Rams ranked slightly better at 17.5PPG which was 4th worst. Neither team has 'big play' capability in the passing game as they lack playmakers at the wideouts and neither team has a starting QB to get them the ball. No two teams in the NFL have worst QB situations than these two clubs as the Rams are forced to start Case Keenum (47.7QBR) while the 49ers counter with Blaine Gabbert (42.2QBR) or the other guy who I won't even mention. Los Angeles (St Louis) had the worst passing game in the NFL last year at just 175YPG while the 49ers were 29th at 203.4YPG. L.A. will rely heavily on running back Todd Gurley and their defense to win games this season. Niners head coach Chip Kelly didn't produce in Philly with his vaunted college offense and it won't translate here in San Francisco, especially early on. Both defenses were better 'efficiency' wise compared to their Net Yards allowed seasonal stats last year and we expect both D-units to dominate on Monday night. 12 of the Rams 16 games last season ended with less points than tonight's Total. If you take out overtime, the 49ers and their opponents scored less than the Total on this game in 11 of their 16 games last year. The Rams are on 6-1 'under' run dating back to last year and the offense is worse than it was a season ago. The Under has cashed in 18 of the 49ers last twenty three home games. Points will be hard to come by in this one....bet UNDER! | |||||||
09-12-16 | Steelers -3 v. Redskins | Top | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Washington, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET The Redskins won the terrible NFC East by default last year despite getting outgained by an average of 28 YPG which ranked them 23rd in the NFL in that category. The NFC Least was terrible in 2015 with the 3 other teams (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) combining for a 17-31 record. Somebody had to win it, right? That was the Skins who had, by far, the worst point differential of all the NFL playoff teams at +9 for the entire season. There were 13 teams that had better point differentials than Washington and 22 teams that had better YPG differential. They didn’t beat a winning team all last season. While this was a playoff team last year by definition, they really weren’t good enough to be in the post-season and that was proven when wildcard team GB went into Washington and smoked the Skins 35-18 to quickly knock them out. The Steelers are the MUCH better team here. They were +45 YPG better than Washington offensively last year, +95 better in overall point differential and gave up 17 fewer YPG. Pitt is far superior at QB with Roethlisberger vs Cousins and they also have the top WR in the NFL in Antonio Brown. While RB Bell is out in this game, his back up DeAngelo Williams rushed for almost 1,000 yards last year so very little drop off there. While Washington really didn’t deserve their post-season berth last year, the Steelers beat Cincy on the road and then outplayed eventual Super Bowl Champion Denver on the road in a 23-16 loss outgaining the Broncs by 72 yards. Pitt put up almost 400 yards on a Bronco defense that allowed just 283 on the season. Now this potent Steeler offense faces a Washington D that finished 28th in YPG allowed last year. We’ll gladly lay the 3 points in this spot and take Pittsburgh. | |||||||
09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +6.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We realize Brady will be in street clothes watching this one and because of that this spread is set too high. Give Belichick nearly a full TD and ample time to prepare and we have a very dangerous dog here. Belichick took over as the Pats head coach in 2000 and New England has been an underdog 67 times in that span. They are 44-22-1 ATS in those games. If they are getting 6 points or more (they are currently +6) his Patriot team is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 7 of those being outright wins. You can bet Belichick will have a great game plan going into this one. Brady’s replacement, Jimmy Garappolo, looked solid in the pre-season and as long as he doesn’t make huge mistakes, New England has a chance to win this one outright. He has the top TE combo in the NFL as targets with Marcellus Bennett teaming up with Gronk (he is ? here) this year. Arizona looked absolutely terrible in the pre-season and the scary part is, even in game 3 when the starters played extensively, they were whipped by Houston and the starters only put up 10 points in the first half. QB Carson Palmer threw 2 picks and didn’t look good. The starting defense gave up 31 points in the first half of that game @ Houston. Arizona is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year but we think they might be a bit over valued entering the season. Laying nearly a TD to New England is too high. The Pats will keep this close | |||||||
09-11-16 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5, San Diego @ Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET It’s always smart to at least take a look at the UNDER in a divisional game in the NFL. You don’t always have to use the situation, however long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. The overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. This AFC West rivalry has been a strong play to the UNDER. The last 23 meeting have resulted in 15 UNDERS & 8 OVERS. The last 4 meetings have all gone UNDER with an average point total of just 30. Only 5 of the last 23 games between these two have gotten to 50 pts or higher. On top of that, KC has gone UNDER in 35 of their last 56 home games and vs the AFC West the Chiefs are 40-23 to the UNDER their last 63. We also expect a slower paced game as the Chiefs were 31st in the NFL in offensive pace last year and San Diego was middle of the pack. This number is currently in the mid-40’s and too high. Take the UNDER. | |||||||
09-10-16 | California v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 0 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #392 - 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET: After opening up at an 8 this line was down to a 7 by Thursday afternoon. The situation here is truly ideal for a San Diego State blowout and that is what makes the drop to a 7 add even more value in this spot. The fact is that the betting markets have had trouble with the Aztecs in the past and we feel this line is also well off the mark. San Diego State was "only" 7-6 ATS last season but 5 of those ATS wins beat the spread by at least 20 points. This looks like another spot where the Aztecs are very undervalued. Adding even more to this selection is the fact that California is still an over-valued team. They are off of a bye week because they were a week ahead of most everyone else with their late August game against Hawaii "down under" in Australia. That game is helping to give us value here because the Golden Bears did win that game by a big margin but it hides the fact that Cal defense did give up nearly 500 yards in that game. That was against the same Hawaii team that then went to Michigan and got rolled 63 to 6. The point is that the Cal early season win masked some major concerns with this team. The Golden Bears (with star QB Jared Goff now in the NFL with the Rams) are a team that is likely to struggle against a top rate defense like San Diego State has. With Rocky Long at the helm, the Aztecs are extremely well coached. San Diego State allowed only 287.3 yards per game last season which ranked them 5th in the nation. Many look at this game as a scheduling edge for Cal since they are coming off of a bye week. However, traveling to Australia to play inferior competition and then immediately having a two week break while trying to stay game ready isn't exactly an ideal situation. The Aztecs are truly in the ideal situation here as they have been home the entire time, hosted an outclassed New Hampshire team last week (31-0 win) so they were able to "work the rust off" after the off-season, and now they get a shot at revenge. Last year the Aztecs and coach Long were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 2 of their season when they lost 35 to 7 at Cal. Now San Diego State gets an opportunity for revenge at home and the Aztecs loss to Cal last year was their worst loss since all the way back in September of 2013 when they lost big at Ohio State. There is no doubt that coach Long will have his troops ready for this one and we expect running back Donnel Pumphrey to run wild in this one as he faces a Cal defense that was ripped for 248 yards (6.5 yards per carry) by the Rainbow Warriors. Cal ranked 109th on defense last year allowing 453.7 yards per game and that weakness is still here plus the offense only returned 3 starters from last season. Look for the home team to make it 8 in a row in this series on the West Coast. We'll lay the points with San Diego State in late night action Saturday. | |||||||
09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 106 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER BRONCOS: It's the Super Bowl rematch as the Panthers and Broncos square off Thursday night in Denver. Let's first talk about the last meeting and the importance it has on this game and how it will impact the outcome. In the Super Bowl the Broncos defense was absolutely dominating and they essentially won the game themselves. On the other side of the football Denver had less than 200 yards of total offense, just 11 first downs but still won the game by 14-points. Why? Because the defense sacked Newton six times, forced 4 turnovers, 1 for a TD and 1 that directly led to a touchdown. Yes, the Denver D lost a few key players but our NFL insiders tells us they won't miss a beat, still have the best D-line and secondary in the NFL. Some experts feel this Denver defense might be one of the best overall units they've seen in years. In other words we don't expect a change on that side of the football for Denver so what about the offense? Former Broncos QB Peyton Manning was just 13 of 23 (56.6 percent) for 141 yards in the Super Bowl. He threw no touchdowns and one interception for a 56.6 passer rating, which ranks as the fourth-worst in Super Bowl history for winning quarterbacks. We're pretty confident young QB Trevor Siemian, who has had a great training camp, can manage this offense with the returning talent on the roster. Not to mention the Panthers start two rookie CB's which has only happened one other time since 1991. The Panthers were one of the league's best offenses statistically last year with QB Newton, RB Stewart and TE Olson but let's not forget they played the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL last season. Denver has 18 of the 22 overall starters from last year's team, are playing at home and getting points. In direct comparison, the Panthers were -4.5-point favorites last year on a neutral field and are now laying nearly the same number in Denver? Denver is 16-3 SU their last nineteen at home and have been a home dog of 3-point or less just three times in that span (3-0 SU/ATS). Carolina is 0-4 ATS their last four road games and while this is a revenge game the value clearly lies with Denver. Take the home team! | |||||||
09-04-16 | Notre Dame v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Tonight we play on Texas plus the points over Notre Dame. Last year when these same two teams met the Irish were 8.5-point chalks at home and they destroyed the Longhorns 38-3 in racking up 527 total yards of offense while allowing just 163. That was last year in South Bend and the circumstances are much different this year with the game in Texas AND with the Longhorns returning 79% of their offense and defense from last year’s squad. Texas is loaded with talent and are expected to be much better this season in coach Charlie Strong’s third season. Our predictors expect them to be at least 3-points per game better offensively and the same defensively. This is the best O line in the Charlie Strong era, and it should be able to wear down a smallish (and lacking depth) d-front of the Irish as the game goes on. Strong realized he need to improve his offense so he brought in assistant coach Sterlin Gilbert and he’s been tasked with installing the same offense that has powered Baylor to two Big 12 titles in three years. You can expect success on the ground here with the power run game as tailbacks D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren run behind a solid O-line which should put the Longhorns in plenty of 3rd and short and take pressure off freshman QB Buechele. Yes, Notre Dame has talent offensively, especially at QB with Zaire and Kizer, along with RB’s Folston and Adams, but they lack playmakers at the wideout positions and there is some chemistry issues with the rotating QB’s. Texas is at home playing with revenge in their season opener and getting value here as they should be a slight favorite according to our early season power ratings. Grab the points with Texas. | |||||||
09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 19 m | Show |
ASA Saturday CFB Game #183 - 10* TOP Clemson Tigers -7 @ Auburn Tigers @ 9 ET: Clemson was perfect last season until coming up just short against Alabama in the Championship Game. Although they lost 7 starters from last year's defense, this was similar to the situation going into the prior season as well - Clemson last 8 starters on defense heading into 2015. Of course 2015 was still a huge success and similar results should be expected in 2016. The defensive system continues to thrive at Clemson and the offense returns 8 starters including star QB Deshaun Watson. Under coach Dabo Swinney Clemson has gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 meetings with Auburn. Though Auburn is an SEC team they only went 2-6 both SU and ATS in conference action last season. Auburn will be trying to stop a Clemson offense that ranked among the top teams in the nation last year and Watson is such a huge threat both through the air and on the ground. The Auburn defense overall was ranked 13th in the SEC and now has its 3rd defensive coordinator in the last three years. Additionally, there is concern at the linebacker position as Auburn plays a 4-3 defense and lost all 3 of their starting linebackers from last season's team. We just don't see the Auburn defense (ranked 71st in the nation for yardage allowed) as being able to slow down Clemson much at all. The dynamic offensive attack of Clemson will prove to be too much here and Auburn doesn't have the offense to keep up. Auburn only has 6 returning starters on offense and the team was ranked 94th in the nation in yards per game on that side of the ball. We expect an early season road rout here and we're laying the points with Clemson Saturday night. | |||||||
02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +6 over Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We have to take the line value with Denver here. Now that this team has pushed up to –5.5 or -6 in favor of the Panthers, we’ll jump on the Broncos. To put this line in perspective, we’ll adjust the line as if Carolina was the home team. With the line where it is set now, that would mean Carolina would be -10 at home vs Denver which is off. When comparing this to their most recent 5 home games, you’ll see what we mean. In those home games the Panthers were favored by 3 vs Arizona, 2.5 vs Seattle, 8.5 vs Atlanta, 10 vs Tampa, and 7 vs Washington. That puts this current line in perspective and tells us where the value is. Denver has been an underdog 5 times this year covering all 5 and winning 4 of those games outright over New England (twice), KC, and Green Bay. As we all know they have the #1 defense in the NFL and completely shut down the Patriots and Tom Brady last week. That’s not easy to do. Teams with the better overall defense have won 40 of the 49 Super Bowls and that sits squarely in Denver’s corner here. With 2 weeks to prepare we’re positive the Denver defense will have a great game plan to slow down Carolina. The Panthers have obviously been very good in their first 2 playoff games both at home. Now that they have to leave the confines of their home stadium and travel west. They played a very weak slate away from home this year beating only one team that finished the season with a winning record. Peyton Manning is obviously on his last leg for Denver but he’s played OK since he came back into the lineup. He has gone 3 straight games without turning the ball over which is key here vs a Carolina team that is +20 in turnover margin (+6 turnovers more than the 2nd best margin). Manning has been in this spot numerous times and has the savvy to manage this game and get a win. He knows his role now. Denver will play great defense and make this a “slow” paced, field position type game. Carolina is definitely the “public” side here as their offense has been red hot. The problem is that has made the Panthers an overvalued side here as we mentioned earlier. That doesn’t bode well as teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs (Carolina did last week) are just 5-23 ATS their next game! The dog is also 6-1 ATS the last 8 Super Bowls – last year was a pick-em game so it’s not included. We think Denver’s defense keeps this close and getting nearly a TD is the way to go. | |||||||
02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45 - Denver vs Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We have the two most efficient defense in the NFL here with Denver ranking #1 in that category and Carolina #2. The Panthers offense has been hot but Denver just held Pittsburgh & New England (two top notch offenses) to just 3 TD’s combined. Carolina played a number of weak defenses throughout the year so we feel their overall numbers are bit skewed. In fact, of their 16 regular season games, the Panthers only faced 2 teams that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in total defense. The Bronco defense has allowed more than 20 points only 6 times this entire season and that includes their playoff games (18 games). The Denver offense will be playing into one of the top defenses in the NFL as well. The Broncs have turned into a “conservative” offense that runs the ball quite a bit. They need this game to be lower scoring to have a chance and we think they’ll get a slower pace here. Denver plays the field position game, Manning doesn’t make any mistakes, and this turns into a low scoring slugfest. We like the UNDER in this game. | |||||||
01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 15-49 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points - Arizona @ Carolina, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET We are going to play UNDER in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers NFC Championship game. We will put ourselves on the opposite bet of the general public in this game and play 'under' the total. At first glance many bettors will look and say these two teams have the best offenses in the NFL, they'll score 30+ each but we really don't feel that will be the case. Let's first look at last weeks misleading results concerning both teams final scores. Green Bay and Arizona combined for 46 points but 6 of those came in OT, 7 came on a hail Mary at the end of regulation and 10 of Arizona's points came in the final 3:44 of the game. In last week's Seahawks versus Panthers game the Panthers scored just a couple minutes in, then immediately returned an INT for a TD for a quick 14-point lead. Carolina also benefitted from a short field after an INT for their third score. Then Seattle put up 10 points in the final 6 minutes of the game for 55 total points. A lot is being made of these two team's offenses but the defenses for both have been equally as good. Carolina allows just 5.0 yards per play overall (3rd) and 4.0 yards per rush (8th). Arizona gives up just 5.3YPPL (9th) and 4.0YPR (8th). When it comes to defensive efficiency ratings the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL while the Cards are 7th. The Cardinals have stayed 'under' the total in 6 of their last seven games overall (3 games versus top 15 scoring offenses) but the Panthers have gone over in 8 of their last 11. Carolina's recent 'over' run is misleading though as only one of those teams (Seattle) rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency ratings. Last year when these same two teams met in the Playoffs they combined for 43 total points and we see similar results here. | |||||||
01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -103 | 48 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET These two met right here in Denver in late November with New England as a slight 2.5 point favorite. The Pats led the game 21-7 with under 13:00 minutes remaining but the Broncs put on a furious rally and won 30-24 in OT. Brock Osweiler was the Denver QB in that one and they relied heavily on the ground game with 29 combined carries for Anderson and Hillman for 172 yards. You can bet New England and Bill Belichick will shore up their run defense here and force a less than stellar Peyton Manning to beat them. We don’t think he can do it as his skills and arm strength have diminished considerably. In fact, in last Sunday’s 23-16 win over an injury riddled Pittsburgh team, Manning’s QB Rating was just 35.9 which was his 2nd worst rating in any of his playoff games over the last decade. The Broncos struggled to beat a Pittsburgh team with a QB that couldn’t throw down field due to an injured shoulder (Roethlisberger) and a team without their top WR or RB. Even with that, Denver was trailing with 3:00 minutes remaining when they scored their go ahead TD. Despite the shoulder injury, Roethlisberger was able to put up 339 yards through the air and a 53.2 QB Rating. Needless to say, we expect Brady to have a big day on Sunday. Pittsburgh dominated the all telling yards per play stats averaging 6.7 per snap compared to just 4.6 for Denver. The Broncs had only TWO drives the entire game of 40 or more yards against an “OK” but not great Pittsburgh defense. We feel the Broncos were a bit lucky to come out of last week with a win despite facing a beat up team playing their 4th consecutive week on the road. New England led 21-6 in the 3rd and held on to top a red hot KC team 27-20. That was despite New England running 27 FEWER offensive plays! The Pats, unlike Denver, dominated the yards per play stat with 6.1 yards per snap compared to 4.6 for KC. New England has the coaching edge and a huge advantage at the most important position on the field, QB. We don’t think Denver can do enough offensively to win this game. Take the PATRIOTS. | |||||||
01-24-16 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points - New England @ Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET To say the Broncos offense is struggling would be putting it lightly. This team simply is not good offensively. Last week vs an average Pittsburgh defense the Denver offense had only TWO drives of 40 or more yards. That’s it and one was basically their final game winning drive. They scored 23 points but in reality they should have gotten nowhere near that number. They actually scored 10 of their 23 points in the final 3:00 minutes of the game. In fact, the two teams combined for 25 points in the first 57 minutes of the game and 14 in the last 3 minutes. Obviously Peyton Manning doesn’t have it anymore. He can’t get the ball downfield taking big plays almost entirely out of the equation. His QB Rating last week of 35.9 was his 2nd lowest in his NFL playoff career. The Pats offense has tailed off the last 3 games scoring 20, 10, & 27 points. In 2 of those 3 games they failed to reach 300 total yards. They will be facing the #1 defense in the entire NFL so we don’t look for those recent numbers to improve on Sunday. These two met earlier this year and Denver won the game 30-24 in OT. That was a deceivingly high score as it was just 14-7 entering the 4th quarter. With the total sitting where it is right now, the oddsmakers see a final score of New England 24, Denver 21. We’d be shocked if Denver was able to get to 20 points in this game and we don’t expect New England’s offense to go off. Take the UNDER here. | |||||||
01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 114 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points - Seattle @ Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We feel these two should easily eclipse this total. Seattle has scored at least 29 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The failed to do so last week in Minnesota but we can throw that out the window as the conditions were brutally cold and windy. We actually think that 10-9 outcome actually kept this total from pushing higher. Carolina’s offense is vastly under rated as they’ve now put up 27 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games! That includes topping 30 points 9 times during that stretch. Many may not even realize that the Panthers are the highest scoring team in the league at 31 PPG. Seattle ranks 9th at 26 PPG but their offense is playing much better than that right now. They were held to 20 points or less in 4 of their first 8 games which means their overall numbers aren’t up to par with how they are actually playing offensively right now. These two met earlier this season in Seattle and totaled 50 points and 720 yards of total offense. They also met in the playoffs last year and totaled 48 points and put up over 700 yards of offense. We see both these teams easily getting to the mid 20’s or higher and pushing this OVER this total. | |||||||
01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers -1 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -1 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET They had plenty of doubters, but the fact is Carolina was the best team in the NFL pretty much all season long. Getting them at home and rested at this number is a gift. Let’s not forget that the Panthers already faced off against Seattle this year and that was on the road in what many consider to be the toughest venue in the NFL. Carolina won that game 27-23 outgaining the Hawks 383 to 334. Seattle’s used up their “rabbit’s foot” last week when they won at Minnesota 10-9 as the Vikes missed a chip shot field goal to win. Minny dominated the first 3 quarters leading 9-0 heading into the 4th and Seattle had just 162 total yards at that point. While Carolina is rested and ready, Seattle is traveling for the 3rd straight week as they closed out the regular season @ Arizona. Hard to believe a team that went 15-1 is undervalued but that is the case here. The Panthers were 8-0 at winning by an average margin of 16 PPG and they are currently laying under a FG here. Seattle’s “luck” runs out on Sunday. | |||||||
01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -100 | 99 h 38 m | Show |
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast Dec 20th in Oakland then came home, went to Arizona the following week, then home to face Minnesota. And last week they went to the East coast to face Washington and now travel back to Arizona on short week having to play on Saturday. Green Bay beat Washington handily last week but we're not buying them. The Skins were over-rated and won a bad NFC East division yet they still managed to outgain the Packers despite getting beat 18-35. The Packers offense has been OK, but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona averages nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. In the recent meeting the Cards absolutely destroyed the Packers 38-8. When you factor in sacks (Arizona had 9 for minus 78 yards) the Packers and Aaron Rodgers had 77 net yards passing! Arizona racked up over 380 yards of total offense and outgained the Pack by 200 yards. After jumping up 17-0 the Cards were able to play conservative too and save 60-70% of their playbook for this rematch. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career there is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 4-14 SU their last 18 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they won by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. | |||||||
01-16-16 | Chiefs +5 v. Patriots | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City +5 over New England, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET New England was headed in the wrong direction at the end of the season. They had two very meaningful games to close out the year and they couldn’t win either. The Pats simply needed to win one of their final two games and they would have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. On Dec 27th the Pats lost to the Jets 26-20 and were outgained by 144 yards. Even more disturbing they then lost to Miami 20-10 and outgained by a whopping 242 yards in a game they needed to win. That was against a Miami team that had lost 5 of their previous 6 games with their only win (before New England) coming by 2-points vs a decimated Baltimore team. The big problem for them offensively is they can’t run the ball. Since losing RB Blount 3 games ago, they’ve tried to piece together a backfield by signing a slow and aging Steven Jackson to go with their current roster of James White & Brandon Bolden. In their final 3 games New England rushed for a total of 226 yards on 75 carries or just 3 YPC. Don’t expect that to change against a KC defense allowing just 99 YPG on the season. That will allow a very good KC pass rush (3 sacks per game) to tee off on an immobile and banged up (ankle) Tom Brady. Not only that, the Chief defense leads the NFL in opposing QB pass completion percentage allowing just 56%. The KC offense will be conservative and try and limit mistakes (turnovers). They will do enough to stay in this game the whole way. They have all the confidence in the world that they can win this game entering on an 11 game winning streak. Tom Brady is just 11-15 ATS in the playoffs as the Pats usually come in a bit over valued. That is the case here and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs win this game outright. We’ll take the points as for a nice cushion. | |||||||
01-10-16 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 44.5 | Top | 35-18 | Win | 100 | 49 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 44.5 Points - Green Bay @ Washington, Sunday at 3:40 PM ET Much has been made of the Packers offensive struggles down the stretch and we think that all changes here. Green Bay has scored just 8 & 13 points in their final two games but those came against Arizona & Minnesota, two of the top 8 scoring defenses in the NFL. Coming into those final 2 games, the Pack had scored 27 or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. We look for them to get back to that production against a below average Washington defense. Look for Aaron Rodgers and company to be much more comfortable throwing the ball against one of the worst pass defenses NFL allowing 258 YPG passing (25th in the NFL) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (25th in the NFL). Look for Mike McCarthy to lean heavily on his best player (Rodgers) to win this game. The Packer offense will look much, much better this week. On the other side of the ball, the Washington offense played lights out down the stretch scoring at least 30 points in each of their final 3 games. QB Kirk Cousins had a great season finishing 5th in the NFL in QB Rating behind only Wilson, Dalton, Palmer, and Brady. In those final 3 games Cousins threw 11 TD’s and no interceptions. The Skins have averaged 26 PPG at home and we see no reason they don’t hit that number or at least close. Add that to what we expect to be a much improved Green Bay offense vs a poor defense and this one gets OVER the total | |||||||
01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +3 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET These two teams met a few weeks ago with the Steelers prevailing 33-20 in Cincinnati. The Bengals actually outgained the Steelers in that game but lost their starting QB Andy Dalton on the opening drive of the game. Backup AJ McCarron played OK in relief and is a serviceable 2nd string NFL QB. The Bengals are arguably the most talented team in the playoffs and have an edge defensively here. Cincinnati is 2nd in the league in points allowed per game at 17.4PPG, 1st in opponents points per play (.270), 10th in yards per play allowed and 2nd in opponents TD’s allowed per game (1.8). The Bengals ‘weakness’ on defense is stopping the run, but as of this writing the Steelers will have a hard time exploiting that as RB DeAngelo Williams is in a walking boot (listed as doubtful). Williams had 76 yards and 2 TD’s versus the Bengals in the most recent meeting. The Bengals should exploit a Steelers secondary that is 30th in the NFL in passing yard allowed per game, giving up more than 270YPG. Early in the season when these two teams met in Pittsburgh the line was a pick’em. Then most recently in Cincy the Bengals were minus 1-point and now they are getting a full field goal at home. Home teams in the Wildcard rounds are on a 65-35 SU run and we feel the Bengals get a home win here. | |||||||
01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points - Kansas City @ Houston, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET These two defenses played very well down the stretch but we feel their numbers during that run are a bit skewed due to the competition. The Chiefs held their final 4 opponents to 17 or fewer points but those games came against San Diego, Baltimore (without Flacco), Cleveland, and Oakland. Three of those four finished the season ranked 25th or lower in scoring and the only outlier, Oakland, finished 17th. In fact, the only offense that KC played down the stretch (final 9 games) that ranked higher than Oakland in scoring (17th) was Buffalo at 12th. Thus, the Chief defense didn’t face a single top 10 scoring offense in their final 9 games. The Houston defense has a bit more to “brag” about as they at least faced a few good offenses down the stretch including New England, New Orleans, and Buffalo. However 2 of those 3 (Pats & Bills) scored 27 or more in those games. The Texans final 3 games they faced Indy, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, all below average offenses. Now they face a KC offense that averages 25 PPG ranking them in the top 10. The Chiefs are also ranked as the 6th most efficient offense in the NFL. Houston’s offensive numbers are a bit deceiving in our opinion. When Hoyer has been the starting QB, the Texans throw the ball much more and look much better offensively. Hoyer came back last week after nearly a month off and helped the Texans put up 30 points vs Jacksonville. He has averaged just under 35 pass attempts per game and with Hoyer under center Houston has scored at least 20 points in 9 of those 11 games. With this total set so low, 20 points out of Houston will probably be more than enough to push this over. When these two met earlier in the season they scored 47 and we look for similar numbers here. Let’s also throw in the fact that we’ll have perfect weather conditions playing in Houston. We expect both teams to get into the 20’s which pushes this one OVER the number. | |||||||
01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Kansas City, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET The Chiefs come in on a well-publicized 10 game winning streak. However, they have been far from dominant during this run outgaining those 10 opponents by an average of just 11 YPG. Turnovers have been the key as they are +16 during that 10 game run and that can’t be counted on to continue game after game. Especially vs the Texans who’ve protected the ball very well with just 10 turnovers total in their last 11 games. Let’s also not forget that while that 10 game run is impressive, they beat only 2 teams during that stretch that ended the year with above .500 records and there needs to be an “asterisk” placed by both of those games. They topped Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger out and beat Denver in the game that Peyton Manning went out and was replaced by Osweiler and didn’t come back until last week. These two met here in the season opener and KC was a 1-point favorite. The Chiefs won 27-20 but were outgained by almost 70 yards but +2 in turnovers. Down the stretch run KC was favored by 3 @ Oakland and by 3 @ SD, two non-playoff teams. Now they are laying the same or even a bit more in some places which gives us value on the host. Since 2003 NFL playoff dogs are 71-58 ATS and that trend continues in this game. | |||||||
01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Under – Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers - 8:30 PM ET - This is a winner take all battle for the NFC North crown and we expect a defensive battle. Green Bay is still viewed as one of the better offenses in the league but the fact is they are not. They are a middle of the pack team in scoring (23 PPG) and they are averaging only 333 YPG which ranks them 24th in the NFL. They don’t have any downfield threats on the outside and Aaron Rodgers has had the play the dink and dunk game for much of the year. Their offensive line is banged up and we look for the Packers to struggle offensively again tonight. They allowed 38 points last week to the top scoring team in the league (Arizona). However the Cards scored 2 defensive TD’s in the game which really skewed their final point tally. In their 6 games leading up to last week’s match up in Arizona, the Packer defense had allowed 18, 13, 17, 23, 7, and 20 points. Minnesota comes in with one of the top defenses in the NFL (#6 in scoring allowing 19 PPG) and a so-so at best offense (scoring 23 PPG). The Vikes have looked very good offensively the last two weeks putting up a lot of points but those games were against Chicago & the NY Giants, two teams out of the playoff race with suspect defenses. They love to turn the ball (30 attempts per game) which eats up clock. The Vikes passing game is below average (31st in pass attempts per game) and lacks big play ability just as the Packers do. GB win the first match up 30-13 but the Pack had only 320 yards of total offense so they were lucky to put up 30. Even with that, that score still stays under this number. These two have been under teams all season long going a combined 9-20-1 to the UNDER. The windchill in GB tonight will be in the low teen’s and we look for a defensive battle. Take the UNDER. | |||||||
01-03-16 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 42 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
UNDER San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos - 4:25PM ET - We will play UNDER in the San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos game. The Broncos need a win here and control their own destiny. San Diego is looking forward to the off season. The Broncos gameplan is obvious here as they'll let their defense dictate the tempo, play conservative offensively and win a game without making mistakes. The Denver defense is the best in the league: 4th in PPG allowed at 18.4, 1st in opponents yards allowed 280.9, 3rd opponents points per play .286, 1st in opponents yards per play etc...etc...etc...In the first meeting of the season the Broncos held the Chargers to less than 280 total yards of offense and just 3 points. The Chargers offense is one dimensional and predictable as their offensive line has been decimated by injuries, they have no running game and injuries at the wideout position. San Diego has scored just 3 in three of their last 6 games. They did top 20 points in three of their last six games but that came against three defenses that rank 21st or worst in the NFL...NOT 1ST! Denver runs the football on average 25 times per game but in the first meeting against the Chargers they ran it 39 times. San Diego allows 4.7 yards per rush which is 30th in the league and Denver will look to exploit that weakness again on Sunday. More running plays means less clock stoppage and a lower scoring game. Denver has topped 27 points just 4 times this year and one of those games was an OT affair. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings including a 22-10 (32 points) game last year in Denver. The bet here is obvious...UNDER! | |||||||
01-02-16 | West Virginia v. Arizona State OVER 62 | Top | 43-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
PLAY OVER A pair of high powered offenses face off when West Virginia and Arizona State meet in the Cactus Bowl this evening and we expect a ton of points. Both teams rank in the top 28 nationally in total offense (ASU averages 468YPG for 24th - WVU 461YPG for 28th) and in the top 50 in scoring (ASU 34PPG, WVU 33PPG), and both are dynamic in the running and passing game. Both teams are in the top half of college football in yards per point and yards per play. These two teams have scored 40+ points in four of their 12 games this season and 30+ seven times. Defensively nether team is very good as ASU gives up an average of 456 yards per game which is 101st (out of 128) while West Virginia was slightly better allowing 387YPG (51st). But West Virginia has skewed stats as they faced a few horrible offenses this season in Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Maryland and Texas. A better indicator of WVU's defense is when they played two teams that are similar to Arizona State in Baylor and TCU when they allowed over 600 total yards of offense in each of those games and 100 total points. Both teams are loaded with a ton of 'skill' talent and will put up a ton of points in this one. The bet here is OVER! | |||||||
01-02-16 | Penn State +6 v. Georgia | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State +6 over Georgia, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - ASA's 2016 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR The UGA team has to be in disarray for this bowl game. They lost their head coach Mark Richt to Miami and he’s already taken a number of assistants, including both the offensive AND defensive coordinator, and they will not be coaching in this game. Many of the coaches that are prepping the Dogs for this game don’t have jobs moving forward so we can imagine that’s been quite a distraction as well. Kirby Smart (former Bama assistant) will take over after this game and he hasn’t retained any of the current UGA assistants as of yet. On top of all of that, the fact is that UGA simply wasn’t all that great this year. They were outscored by an average of 9 PPG and outgained by nearly 70 YPG vs the other bowl teams they faced this season. Their offense has struggled much of the season and especially down the stretch as they scored 20 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games. They are very one-dimensional with little passing game (178 YPG ranking 106th nationally). Their QB Greyson Lambert has been average at best all season and actually was unable to win the job @ Virginia which is why he transferred over the summer. That will be a problem against a very aggressive PSU defense that ranks 16th nationally in defensive efficiency. PSU’s offense hasn’t been great but they do have an NFL caliber QB in Hackenberg. PSU, unlike Georgia, is thrilled to be playing a top notch opponent and they are extra motivated after a poor performance @ Michigan State to end the season. Their coaching staff is much more stable at this point which is very important heading into bowl season. Getting nearly a full TD is a great spot here as we feel PSU has a great shot to win this game outright. | |||||||
01-01-16 | Notre Dame +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 28-44 | Loss | -130 | 38 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +7 over Ohio State, Friday at 1:00 PM ET We think the Irish come with much more enthusiasm and “want to” in this game. The Buckeyes had one goal after winning the National Championship a year ago and that was to repeat this season. They failed to do so and not getting to the “Final 4” is a huge disappointment. While the making it to the Fiesta Bowl would be a huge accomplishment for most teams, we expect OSU to be flat here. They have a number of players with one foot out the door to the NFL and not getting a chance to accomplish their season long goal will have them disinterested. Their opponent is no slouch. In fact, we think these two teams compare very favorably and for OSU to be nearly a TD favorite is off in our opinion. Notre Dame comes in with just 2 losses and they really could have and should have won both of those games. If so, we’re talking about an undefeated Irish team and a potential National Championship. Their losses were by 2-points @ Clemson and by 2-points @ Stanford. The Irish outgained Clemson by nearly 150 yards but 4 turnovers did them in and gave the Tigers a tight win. The golden domers also outgained Stanford on the road by 111 yards but a 50+ yard field goal as time ran out giving the Cardinal a tight win. They are tough to defend averaging more than 200 YPG both rushing and passing. They stepped up vs top competition going 5-1 ATS vs bowl teams and +72 YPG in those games. The Bucks underachieved all season coming off last year’s fantastic late season run and we see no reason Notre Dame doesn’t hang in this one all the way and have a shot to win outright. | |||||||
01-01-16 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 56.5 Points - Notre Dame vs Ohio State - Friday at 1:00 PM ET Both teams are very potent on offense and we expect points to be scored in this one. Both teams average 35 PPG and both rank in the top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders). ND averages 7 YPP and OSU puts up 6.3 YPP. We also like the fact that the Buckeyes started to go more uptempo late in the season giving them more offensive plays to work with. OSU scored 28 or more points in 8 of their last 9 games. The only time they didn’t reach that number was at home vs Michigan State in a driving rain storm and very windy conditions. Notre Dame hit at least 28 in 9 of their 12 games this season. The Irish averaged 34 PPG this season vs other bowl teams while OSU averaged 32. Notre Dame’s defense allowed 28 PPG vs bowl teams and while OSU’s defensive numbers looked very good vs bowl teams (allowed 16 PPG) they didn’t play many top notch offenses. Notre Dame will be the best offense Ohio State has faced all season. We look for both of these teams to top 30 points and send this one easily OVER the number. | |||||||
01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 41 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -8 over Northwestern, Friday at 12:00 Noon ET We feel this Vol team is much better than their 8-4 record. All 4 of their losses were to bowl teams and all were down to the wire, one score games. Two of those losses came to “Final 4” teams Oklahoma & Alabama. The Vols played Bama closer than anyone this season (sans Bama’s loss to Ole Miss) and actually led on the road with under 3:00 minutes remaining. Bama won the game with a late score 19-14. UT also led Oklahoma 17-0 before losing by a TD in overtime. Pretty impressive losses to say the least. Their other two setbacks were to Arkansas by 4 and to Florida by 1. This team was very close to having a great, great season. This is a young team that will absolutely show up at their best here gaining momentum for the 2016 season. Don’t forget that UT has not been to a New Year’s Day bowl game since 2007 so this is a big deal for them. Northwestern is an unimpressive 10-2 in our opinion. They did knock off Stanford in the 1st game of the year but the Cardinal were a much better team later in the season and we have no doubt if they faced off again NW would lose big. In their two “step up” games this year vs Michigan & Iowa, this Wildcat team lost by a combined score of 78-10. Their other decent win was 13-7 vs Wisconsin, a game the Badgers had won but a crazy call to overturn a UW TD late was the decider. The Cats are simply too one-dimensional offensively to win a game against a very good team like this. They can’t pass the ball and rely almost exclusively on the run. NW ranks 120th in passing YPG (138) and 117th in completion percentage (49%). Tennessee is much more diverse rushing for 224 YPG and passing for 200. They also have a mobile QB that NW’s defense did not see much of this year. Tommy Armstrong @ Nebraska was probably the only similar QB they faced in the Big Ten but he isn’t nearly as good as UT’s Dobbs. Tennessee played a Big Ten team (Iowa) in last year’s Tax Slayer Bowl and rolled up a big 17 point win. We look for a similar outcome this year vs Northwestern. | |||||||
12-31-15 | Michigan State v. Alabama -10 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Alabama -10 over Michigan State, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - ASA's 2015 BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR We felt that MSU was a bit over rated all season long. Their stats simply don’t match up with their overall record. This is a team that averaged 5.7 YPP offensively and allowed 5.5 YPP defensively. That simply doesn’t add up to a team that should be in College Football’s “Final 4”. Their two biggest regular season wins were over Michigan & Ohio State. Keep in mind that Sparty had some serious luck on their sides in those games as they NEVER LED in either game until the final play of the game (blocked punt for TD vs Michigan & FG at buzzer vs Ohio State). Their other big win was a 16-13 triumph over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship game. They had a number of tight wins vs bad competition as well beating Purdue by 3, Rutgers by 7, Air Force by 14 (game was closer than that) and a loss @ Nebraska. Just nothing overly impressive from MSU this year in our opinion. Bama on the other hand, played a whopping 11 bowl teams and lost just once to Ole Miss and the Tide had 5 turnovers in that game. So they were 10-1 vs bowl teams with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. They outgained those 11 opponents by an average of 150 YPG. Bama has some extra incentive here as well after losing in last year’s semi-final to another Big Ten team, Ohio State. Don’t think Saban hasn’t used that as motivation leading into this game. Alabama is the much better team in our mind and they roll in this one. | |||||||
12-31-15 | Michigan State v. Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
We like OVER the total in the Michigan State vs Alabama game. A lot has been made of Bama's defense and rightly so, but their offense deserves more credit than they get. The Tide weren't one dimensional offensively with Heisman winner RB Henry as they also threw the football for over 200YPG. Yes, it's nice to have a stud running back like Henry and Bama won't stray too far from their rushing attack which is 25th in the nation averaging nearly 210YPG. The Tide offense averages over 424YPG offensively and average 32.2PPG. Tennessee held this Alabama team to 19 points but no other team was able to hold them to less than 27 points and they scored 30+ in 9 games this season. Michigan States defense is good again this season but it's not on the same level as the past few editions. The Spartans gave up 20 or more points in 8 games this season. Offensively we expect Michigan State to have problems running the football against this Bama defensive front which is the best in college football by far but we do expect them to have some success throwing the football. Spartans QB Connor Cook (34-4 as a starter) has completed nearly 57% of his passes this season and only has 5 INT's on the season with 24 TD's. MSU has gone over the total in 5 of their last six Bowl games while Alabama has played over in 8 of their last nine Bowl games. | |||||||
12-30-15 | Louisville v. Texas A&M +5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M +5 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET This is a big time value play here as we feel the huge line move was an over-reaction. The Aggies were once favored by 3 in this game and this game has now moved to Louisville -4.5 so more than a full TD move on this game. The obvious reason is due to the QB situation at A&M where both their #1 and #2 QB’s have decided to transfer. While Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen were both highly touted QB’s coming out of HS, both were young and inconsistent so it’s not as if Texas A&M lost 2 of the top QB’s in the nation. The new QB will be JC transfer Hubenak who threw for 4,000 yards last in JC in only 8 games! He’s attempted 27 passes this season and has now had nearly a full month to prepare with the starters. We expect him to play well as head coach Kevin Sumlin has a way with first time QB’s playing well in their first games under center. Louisville does not deserve to be a 4.5 point favorite here. This is a team that was 7-5 on the year and beat only one bowl team (NC State). The Cards struggled to beat WF, BC, Virginia & Kentucky (tied entering the 4th quarter) all non-bowl teams. The only SEC team they played this year was a “down” Auburn team and the Cards lost that one by double digits. Speaking of QB play, Louisville struggles big time at that position with Jackson completing just 55% of his passes this year with only 10 TD’s and 8 interceptions. Despite the QB “upheaval” the Aggies have had, Louisville will not have an advantage at that position. A&M head man Sumlin has performed well in the post-season with a 3-0 bowl record with the Aggies. He’ll have them rallied and ready here and the better team is getting points. Take A&M. | |||||||
12-30-15 | NC State v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 28-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -6.5 over NC State, Wednesday at 3:30 PM ET We like looking for good teams in bowl games if they are coming off a loss in their regular season finale AND lost in their bowl game last year. That provides some extra incentive to get it done in their bowl game. MSU fits the bill here as they lost in their season finale to rival Ole Miss & lost in last year’s Orange Bowl to Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs were outgained by 77 yards in their season ending 11-point loss to Ole Miss but prior to that they had outgained 6 straight opponents. MSU QB Dak Prescott will be the best player in this game and the Bulldogs want to send him out with a win in the final game of his career. NC State is 7-5 but they’ve beaten nobody and we mean nobody. They have ZERO wins over a team that ended the season with a winning record. Their two best wins when it comes to opposing team’s records would be over South Alabama (who ended the year 5-7) and Old Dominion (who ended the year 5-7). The Wolfpack played 5 teams this year that ended up in bowl games and they went 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games with their losses coming by 17, 15, 15, 11, and 7 points. Mississippi State outscored the bowl teams they played 27-26 and outgained them by an average of 1 YPG. That may not seem like much but again compared to NC State that looks great as they Wolfpack were outscored 36-23 and outgained by 124 YPG in their bowl team match ups. MSU is the much better team and motivated. We like them to win going away. | |||||||
12-29-15 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 27-56 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +7.5 over LSU - Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET We can’t imagine the Tigers are all that thrilled to be playing in the Texas Bowl. Let’s not forget that in early November this team was undefeated getting set to play Bama and there was plenty of talk about this LSU team getting into College Football’s “Final 4”. They hadn’t beaten anyone that was all that great in their 7-0 run to start the year and this team was exposed down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games. All 3 losses came in blowout fashion vs the likes of Bama by 14, Arkansas by 17 and Ole Miss by 21. They did close out the season with a 19-7 win over a “dysfunctional” Texas A&M team at the time that has since learned both of their top 2 QB’s are transferring. This bowl is a letdown for this team and they have historically struggled failing to cover 4 straight bowl games. Texas Tech is thrilled to be here and they can score on anyone. They finished 3rd nationally averaging 45.5 PPG. They should be able to score again here vs an LSU defense that was definitely down compared to recent editions allowing 24 PPG (36th nationally) with 3 of their last 4 opponents reaching at least 30 points. The Raider defense is not good but they are facing a fairly one-dimensional LSU offense that failed to top 19 points in any of their final 4 contests. LSU will score here don’t get us wrong but we think Tech scores right with them. A few breaks and we have no doubt Texas Tech can win this game. These two had one common opponent this season and that was Arkansas. Texas Tech beat the Razors on the road by 11 and LSU lost to Arkansas at home by 17. That obviously doesn’t always equate but with a very potent offense, and an excited team getting a full TD we’ll take it. Texas Tech is the play. | |||||||
12-28-15 | Bengals v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Bengals clinched the AFC North with Pittsburgh’s loss on Sunday to a bit of a letdown might be in order here. It’s also their 2nd straight week having to travel west after beating SF on the road 24-14 last week. It’s not an ideal spot for the Bengals. In that game last week in San Fran the Bengals were actually outgained by what many consider the worst team in the NFL but benefitted from 4 Niner turnovers and 11 SF penalties. It was QB AJ McCarron’s first NFL start and he was OK at best throwing for 192 yards against the NFL’s 27th ranked overall defense. Now he faces the NFL’s top defense in the 2nd start of his career and he’ll have to play a whole lot better than he did last week to give Cincinnati a chance here. We’re getting some value here at home with Denver. They are off 2 straight losses and really need a win here. Both losses were of the “deceiving” nature. Two weeks ago they lost here to Oakland 17-15 despite outgaining the Raiders by almost 200 yards. Last week they had Pittsburgh on the ropes at home leading 27-10 before a furious Steeler comeback netted them a 7 point win. Two very disappointing losses should have this team very focused in front of a national audience on Monday. This becomes a HUGE game for Denver as a loss here opens the door for KC to possibly win the division. In this situation, we’re definitely willing to lay a small number with the home team that has won 30 of their last 36 games here. Take Denver! | |||||||
12-28-15 | Central Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 47.5 | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points - Minnesota vs Central Michigan, Monday at 5:00 PM ET First off we’ll have perfect conditions for scoring here is this game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. Weather is obviously not a concern. The MAC has already participated in 6 bowls and most have been very high scoring with 85, 76, 62, 60, 49, and 44 points. Only one of those landed below this posted number and that was the Utah State – Akron match up at 44. The Zips had easily the worst offense in the MAC (bowl games) and both teams were far superior on defense when compared to their offenses. Even with that, those two teams still got to 44 which is close to this number. Minnesota’s overall offensive numbers were not great this year but much of that is attributed to their early season struggles. Only one of the Gophs first five games topped 43 points. However once they hit the Big Ten, this offense looked much better. Over their final 7 games Minnesota games totaled 54, 73, 55, 42, 75, 55, and 52 points. They put solid points on the board against very good defenses including 35 vs Iowa, 26 vs Michigan, and 21 vs Wisconsin. The Gophers fired their offensive coordinator at season’s end so we look for them to be more aggressive on offense with an interim OC calling plays. CMU has solid defensive numbers but they faced some very poor MAC offenses (and teams in general) so those numbers are a bit skewed. Central Michigan has one of the nation’s top passing attacks averaging 313 YPG through the air (15th nationally). Minnesota’s pass defense numbers are good, however they haven’t played many top notch passing attacks. The Big Ten’s best passing attack was Indiana and Minny didn’t face the Hoosiers this year. The only other Big Ten offense ranked inside the top 50 in passing is Nebraska and the Gophers allowed the Huskers 48 points and 261 passing yards on just 18 completions (almost 15 yards per completion). The CMU offense was held below 23 points just 3 times all season and 2 of those were against top notch non-conference defenses (Michigan State & Oklahoma State). We expect both of these teams to move the ball and put points on the board on this fast track in Detroit. Take the OVER. | |||||||
12-27-15 | Giants +7 v. Vikings | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET After back-to-back losses Minnesota bounced back with a convincing win over the Bears and a strong game from Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings have not officially clinched a playoff spot but they are in a great position as they simply need a win earlier in the day by either Carolina or Seattle (both big favorites) and Minny will be headed to the post-season. That may cause a bit of a "letdown" here knowing they are in. The bigger game is next week in Green Bay which will most likely be for the NFC North Title. While the Giants were officially eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, this line has been adjusted WAY too much in our opinion. The Giants have been competitive in all but one of their 8 losses including last week's 3 point loss to the undefeated Panthers. In fact, 7 of NY's 8 losses have come by 6 points or less. This number is now set too high with a over valued Minnesota team who is just 9 points better than the Giants in point differential. Take the points. | |||||||
12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Both need to win for playoff positioning so that's a wash. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast last week against the Raiders and now having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Green Bay won by 10 last week over Oakland but they did get outgained in the game by 80+ total yards. The Packers offense is pretty good but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona average nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. The Cards have a new found weapon in running back David Johnson who has rushed for over 378 yards in the past three games and has 12 TD's on the season. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career their is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 3-13 SU their last 16 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they win by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. | |||||||
12-27-15 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41.5 Points - St Louis @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Seahawks offense has been on an absolute tear scoring 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. The one game they didn’t reach 30 points during that stretch they put up 29. Many believe the Ram defense is one of the tops in the NFL but they look to be running out of gas. They have allowed 23 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last week they “held” Tampa to 23 points but the Bucs put up over 500 total yards of offense so that number was quite deceiving. The problem has been the Ram offense but they looked to have gained some momentum the last few weeks scoring 21 & 31 points. With this number set very low, St. Louis may have to get to only 14 or so points to push this over the total. We’ll look for Seattle’s offense to continue their onslaught and top 30 by themselves. The first meeting between these two (first game of the year) they put up 65 points. While we don’t expect those type numbers today, we think they can absolutely get to the upper 40’s pushing this OVER the TOTAL. | |||||||
12-27-15 | Bears v. Bucs -3 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We don’t see the Bears showing up for this one. They are officially out of the playoff race and they didn’t show up to play last week vs division rival Vikings – a 21-point loss. Now on the road again in a meaningless game we think the Bears are probably done here. Tampa is off a loss @ St. Louis but they easily won the battle of the stats outgaining the Rams by nearly 200 yards! Tampa continues to play hard as they have now outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. We realize the Bucs are out of the playoff mix as well but with a young team and young QB, they are building for next year. The Bucs have exceeded expectations this year while Chicago was anticipating a run at the playoffs and fell far short. Tampa has outgained their opponents by an average of 35 YPG and probably should have a better mark than 6-8. The weather also calls for 85 degrees and humid in Tampa which definitely favors the team that is used to those conditions. Look for Chicago to wear down in the 2nd half as Tampa pulls away. | |||||||
12-26-15 | Indiana -3.5 v. Duke | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Indiana (-3.5) over Duke, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
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12-26-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Washington State OVER 62 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over the Total (62) - Miami FL vs Washington State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET
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12-24-15 | Chargers v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
#102 Oakland Raiders (-5.5) over San Diego Chargers - Thursday, 7:25PM CT - We are going to play on the Oakland Raiders minus the points over the visiting San Diego Chargers. As happens so often late in the season a bad team like San Diego gets a much needed win (last week over Miami) and then take the following week off in preparation for the off-season. We think that's the case this week as a bad San Diego team, that has scored just 3 points offensively in three of their last five games, and coming off a home game which might be their last in San Diego, doesn't show up. Oakland on the other hand outgained Green Bay at home last week but still lost by 10-points. San Diego is beat up on the O-line, at the receiver position and running back offensively. Oakland rates a solid edge in the running game as the Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 120.6 yards per game. Oakland also has the pass defense that can contain what the Chargers do best offensively and that's throwing the football. Oakland is 10th in opponents yards per pass (6.6) and 16th in opponents completion percentage defense. Earlier this year when these two teams met the Raiders beat the Chargers 37-29 but that final is misleading as the Bolts scored a meaningless TD with 6 seconds left in the game. San Diego is just 1-5 SU on the road this season with that win coming at Jacksonville but their other losses have all come by an average of 8PPG. Oakland has lost three straight at home but they came against Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota who are all VASTLY better than the Chargers. The Raiders will give their home fans a big win here over a Chargers team that will be more interested in Christmas and the off-season. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-23-15 | Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green -7 | Top | 58-27 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bowling Green -7 over Georgia Southern, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET Many times during the bowl season we like to go against teams that have abruptly lost their coach to a higher level job. That isn’t an automatic go against but it is something we look strongly at. No advantage here when it comes to that aspect as BOTH head coaches have already moved on. BG head man Dino Babers took the Syracuse job and GS head coach Willie Fitz has moved on to Tulane. Both teams have already hired new head coaches from outside the program and the assistants that will be moving on are taking care of the bowl prep. Thus, no real advantage there. So all thing being equal on the coaching front, we have to side with BG as we feel they are the much better and more veteran team. The Falcons have been to 4 straight bowl games and they have 20+ seniors and a coaching staff (albeit assitants) that have been through this. Georgia Southern is playing in their first ever bowl game and they are stocked with young players (nearly 50 total freshmen/redshirt freshmen)! The Sun Belt has shown to be a fairly weak conference thus far in bowl season. The conference champion, Arkansas State, was whipped by La Tech. Georgia State, who beat this Georgia Southern team 34-7 to close out the year, was beaten by a 5-7 San Jose State team. App State held on for dear life to beat an Ohio team (31-29) that Bowling Green beat 62-24. GS runs the ball almost exclusively. They finished dead last in passing putting up just 62 YPG. We’ll take the much more diverse and explosive offense in this one as BG averages 376 YPG passing and 185 YPG rushing. GS hasn’t seen an offense this good all season in the Sun Belt. They avoided conference champ Arkie State this year which would have been a similar but not nearly as good offense. BG just took teams to the woodshed all season long as 8 of their 10 wins were by at least 14 points. Another beating here as we like Bowling Green big. | |||||||
12-23-15 | Boise State v. Northern Illinois +9.5 | Top | 55-7 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois +9 over Boise State, Wednesday at 430 PM ET NIU gets a big boost here with starting QB Graham returning to the line up. He was injured in the season finale vs Ohio and then was unable to play on the MAC Championship game, a 34-14 loss to Bowling Green. Graham started to take 1st team snaps in practice this week and we fully expect him to be under center when this game starts. Boise is a bit overrated in our minds. The Broncos were favored in every game this year yet still had 4 losses. Three of those losses came in their final six games – lost by 26 vs Utah State, lost by 7 vs Air Force, and lost by 7 vs New Mexico. This seems like a lot of points to be giving one of the more storied non Power 5 programs in a game where we feel the teams are quite close. NIU has 65 wins since 2010 topped only by Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State over that time period. Two of the Huskies losses this year came to close out the season with injuries at QB. Two others were tight games on the road against Power 5 teams Ohio State (lost by 7) and Boston College (lost by 3). NIU is 3-1 ATS as a dog this year and an impressive 25-9 ATS their last 34 in that role! The Huskies have lost 3 straight bowl games and they are sick of hearing about it. Expect a hungry and solid Northern Illinois team to keep this game close. | |||||||
12-20-15 | Bengals -5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE YEAR This line is set too low. No need to over react with Bengal QB Andy Dalton out here. Let’s not forget that his replacement AJ McCarron actually had decent numbers last week if you minus his 2 picks (22 for 32 for 280 yards and 2 TD’s). Let’s also not forget that McCarron will have the entire week to prepare with the starters AND it’s not as if he needs to light it up as the QB on the other side is Blaine Gabbert who has a lifetime record of 7-25 as a starter. Even if we call it “even” at the QB spot, the Bengals are superior almost everywhere else. This is a 10-3 team, off a loss, that is still fighting for their division title playing one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bengals have the most efficient offense in the NFL and the 8th most efficient defense. The Niners are 30th and 31st in those categories. Sure San Fran is a respectable 3-3 at home but since catching Minnesota off guard here to start the year, their other home wins have come by 1 point over Atlanta (who has lost 6 straight games) and by 5 over Baltimore (who has a 4-9 record). This is a huge game for the superior team and the line is more than manageable. Take Cincinnati. | |||||||
12-20-15 | Browns v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 42.5 Points - Cleveland @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The odds are pretty good that Seattle will put up big numbers in this game. This offense has been rolling behind QB Russell Wilson who has had one of the best 4 game runs of any QB ever in the NFL. Going back 5 games, the Seahawks have scored at least 32 points 4 times. The one time they did not reach that number, they scored 29. Now they are facing a Cleveland defense that looked solid last week holding SF to 10 points but let’s face it, the Niners have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Prior to last week the Browns defense had allowed 5 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points. We expect that to happen again on Sunday. Cleveland’s offense had been dreadful but received a spark last week with Johnny Manziel inserted as starting QB. He responded last week putting up 24 points on almost 500 total yards. He will put them in position again this week to put points on the board but also is prone to turnovers which may give Seattle a defensive TD or a few “short” fields as well. Either way, Manziel is a positive for scoring in this game. This number is set too low and we think it goes OVER easily. | |||||||
12-20-15 | Bears +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH We’ve felt all season that Minnesota was playing above their heads and they weren’t as good as their record might indicate. After starting the year winning 7 of their first 9 games, they are now proving us correct losing 3 of their last 4 games. Despite their 8-5 record, the Vikes are getting outgained by 25 yards per game. The Bears have lost 2 straight but as usual, both went down to the wire. In fact, Chicago has been right there in the vast majority of their games and could have a much better record. In fact, since their poor 0-3 start to the season, the Bears most recent 5 losses have all come by 3 or fewer points or in overtime. Despite their losing record, Chicago is outgaining their opponents by 30 YPG. These two met earlier this year and the Bears blew a TD lead with under 2:00 minutes left in a 23-20 loss. The Bears are just 1-6 at home but have a winning 4-2 mark on the road with wins over Green Bay & KC. These two NFC North rivals have had each of their last 5 meetings decided by 8 points or less. Another close game here and we’ll grab the points. | |||||||
12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +4 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a MUCH bigger game for the host Giants. They are tied atop the NFC East with Washington & Philly and simply can’t afford a slip up. Carolina has already clinched the AFC South and a bye and they will almost assuredly be the top seed in the NFC. There has been talk about head coach Ron Rivera giving some of his key players a break down the stretch to get them ready for the playoffs. Rivera’s team is a bit banged up including QB Newton, RB Stewart (out), TE Olsen, and LB Kuechly all nursing injuries. Watch for him to be very careful with this team moving forward. The Panthers are coming off an easy home win over a struggling Atlanta team but in their previous road tilt they were taken to the wire in New Orleans. The G-Men are 3-3 at home but their losses have all come by 4 points or less including a 1-point loss to New England and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants have played nearly everyone close as 6 of their 7 wins have come by 6 points or fewer. We’ve got a feeling this one could be an upset. Take the points. | |||||||
12-19-15 | Arizona v. New Mexico +10 | Top | 45-37 | Win | 100 | 235 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Mexico +10 over Arizona, Saturday, December 19th at 2:00 PM ET - NEW MEXICO BOWL New Mexico is thrilled to be playing in the post-season for the first time since 2007. Not only that, they get to play a home game! This is a Lobo team that was flying completely under the radar with a 7-5 record. They were under rated as well as proven by their spreads and results late in the season. The Lobos won 3 of their last 4 games outright as DOUBLE DIGIT underdogs. They topped Air Force in the season finale 47-35 as an 11-point dog. That’s the same Air Force team that won the Mountain West Mountain Division and played in the conference championship game. Their other two wins down the stretch were over Boise State by 7 as a 31-point dog and Utah State by 1 as a 20.5 point dog. New Mexico is one of the top rushing offenses in the nation averaging just under 250 YPG rushing on 47 carries. They should have success against an Arizona defense allowing 188 YPG on the ground this season. It’s also a “funky” offense to prepare for and one that Arizona doesn’t see during the regular season. We’re not so sure the Wildcat players will be interested in preparing for this offense as they were expecting MUCH bigger things this season but instead get a lower tier bowl bid with a 6-6 record. Zona QB Solomon is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go we like this one even better. Either way we like New Mexico getting the hefty points here. | |||||||
12-17-15 | Bucs +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay +2.5 over St. Louis - Thursday at 8:30 PM ET This is a bad match up for the Rams in our opinion. The St Louis offense stinks right now. They rank 31st in the NFL in total yards and they can’t pass the ball (dead last in the NFL) because of their QB situation. Case Keenum gets his 3rd start of the season tonight and in his other 2 starts STL has done nothing through the air (136 yards & 124 yards passing). The problem is, Tampa has a very good run defense (allowing 94 YPG) so we don’t see the Rams doing much offensively tonight. Really tough to lay points with an offense that averages only 16 PPG and team that has been outgained 5 straight weeks. The Rams have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in their last 5 games. The Bucs have been a surprise this year. They are still alive for an NFC playoff berth so this is a big game for them. Tampa has outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are off a home loss to New Orleans so we look for them to be extra hungry here. After a rough start to the season rookie QB Jameis Winston has played very well with 12 TD’s and just 4 picks over his last 9 games. The 6-7 Bucs have actually played better than that record indicates outgaining opponents 6.0 YPP to just 5.3 YPP. Tampa is 3-3 on the year away from home with wins over the Eagles, Saints, and Falcons. The better team is the dog here and we like Tampa. | |||||||
12-14-15 | Giants +1 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +1 over Miami, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants still have much more to play for as a win tonight keeps them in a tie for 1st place in the NFC East. The Fins are way out of the playoff race. New York has lost 3 straight but they’ve been right there in every game. Those losses include a 1-point setback to New England, a 6-point loss @ Washington, and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants led both the Pats & Jets with under 2:00 remaining in the game. Miami had a couple of high effort games immediately after the firing of head coach Philbin but they have tanked it since. After beating Tennessee & Houston after the firing of Philbin, the Fins have since gone 2-4. Their two wins were “lucky” in our opinion as they beat the Eagles by 1-point but got outgained by 150 yards and beat Baltimore (without Flacco) by 2-points but were outgained again by 150 yards. All 4 of their losses during this stretch have come by double digits. NYG are the better team with much more to play for. Take Eli Manning and company tonight. | |||||||
12-13-15 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Houston, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET After winning their first 10 games of the season the Pats have now lost back to back games for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2010 season. New England has not lost 3 games in a row since 2002. They are now 31-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss. The odds are with us that they’ll get it done here. Last week’s loss to Philly can be tossed aside. New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead but had one of the “unluckiest” games we’ve seen. They outgained the Eagles by 180 yards but Philly scored on a 99-yard interception return, an 83-yard punt return, and an fumble returned for a TD. The Eagle offense actually only scored 14 points and had just 248 total yards in their 35-27 win. Houston had somewhat of a resurgence over the past month and a half but most of their wins came against lower tier teams. Heading into their game last Sunday @ Buffalo, the Texans had won 5 of 6 with their wins coming over Jacksonville, Tennessee, New Orleans, NY Jets, and Cincinnati (the only top tier team). Last week the Texans came back down to earth in their 30-21 loss @ Buffalo. Houston is decent, but New England and Tom Brady will be out for blood after losing 2 in a row and at this low number we have to take the Pats. | |||||||
12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oakland +8 over Denver, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Denver offense looked terrible last week against one of the worst defenses in the league (San Diego). The Broncos offense tallied just 293 yards and only scored 10 points (they have a defensive TD) against a Charger defense that has allowed 27 PPG and 370 YPG this season. The Broncos were able to still pick up the 17-3 win against a San Diego offense that can’t run the ball at all and has been held to 3 points in 2 of their last 3 games. Much has been made of QB Brock Osweiler and his 3-0 record but the fact is those wins were by 2 points vs Chicago, in OT vs a very depleted New England team that has now lost 2 straight games, and last week vs a Charger team heading south in a hurry. We still feel Denver is over valued and this is a nice spot to go against them with huge games vs Pittsburgh & Cincinnati on deck. The Raiders have had a rough go over the last month losing 4 of their last 5 games but they have been “right there” in most of them. They lost by 3 @ Pittsburgh, by 5 @ a now hot Detroit, and despite losing by 14 last week to the sizzling Chiefs, they actually outgained KC by 130 yards and they were +12 first downs. Oakland has been waiting for this game after losing 16-10 at home earlier in the year despite Denver not scoring a single offensive TD. The Raiders showed some life offensively last week and we think they do enough to keep this game close. Too many points here and we grab Oakland. | |||||||
12-13-15 | Steelers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR We view this 7-5 Steeler team as one of the best in the NFL right now. They might be playing as well as anyone right now. They are off a game last Sunday in which they crushed Indianapolis 45-10 outgaining the Colts by almost 300 yards! A week earlier this Pitt team completely outplayed Seattle on the road outgaining them by over 100 yards but lost a close game due to a -4 turnover margin. With QB Ben Roethlisberger now back in the line up and healthy, Pittsburgh has outgained each of their last 5 opponents by a combined total of 718 yards. The offense is clicking as they are averaging 36 PPG over their last 4. In those four games the Steeler offense has put up 597, 538, 522, and 459 yards. Cincy is 10-2 but they are not playing their best football right now and we feel Pittsburgh is the better team at this point in the season. The Bengals are 3-2 their last 5 games but their wins in that stretch have come against Cleveland (twice) & St. Louis. Their losses were at home to Houston and @ Arizona. These two teams met back on November 1st and Pittsburgh knows they gave one away in that game. The Steelers lost 10-6 but outgained Cincinnati 356 to 296. The Black & Gold were leading that game with under 3:00 minutes remaining but gave up a TD & FG in the final minutes. If it weren’t for 3 Roethlisberger interceptions ALL in his own territory and leading to 10 of Cincy’s 16 points, we have no doubt the Steelers win that game. To say the Steelers have had success playing @ Cincinnati would be an understatement. Since 1991, the Men of Steel have won 20 of their 25 games @ Cincinnati. That includes an easy 42-21 whipping of the Bengals last year as a 3-point dog. This is a MONSTER game for Pittsburgh. Sitting at 7-5 they need this game to keep their playoff hopes moving forward. The Bengals are sitting in a much better spot and this is not a must win for them. Pittsburgh is the better team right and now and we’re getting points. We’ll take them. | |||||||
12-13-15 | Bills -1 v. Eagles | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 93 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -1 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Heading into last week it looked to most like the Eagles had quit. There were rumblings of a divided locker room and players not agreeing with Chip Kelly, thus quitting on their coach. They had lost 3 straight games and it wasn’t pretty. They lost at home to a bad Miami team and then were crushed in back to back games vs Tampa & Detroit. Did any of that change last week with their 35-27 win over New England? We don’t think so. Let’s face it, the Eagles had luck on their side last week. Despite the win, they were outgained by 180 yards but were able to score TD’s on an 83-yard punt return, a 99-yard interception return, AND a blocked punt return. The Philly offense only accounted for 248 total yards and 2 TD’s. They were also -12 first downs and minus nearly 10 minutes in time of possession. A very, very deceiving win. This team still isn’t very good and they don’t believe in their coach. They are facing a Buffalo team that is playing very well right now. The Bills knocked off a red hot Houston team last week and they have won 3 of their last 5. Their 2 losses during that stretch came on the road @ New England by 7 and @ red hot KC by 8. Those games both went to the wire and were undecided late. Buffalo is 3-3 on the road this year and still playing hard as they try to make the playoffs with a current 6-6 record. Philly has almost no home field advantage. They are just 2-3 SU here this year and 21-26 SU their last 47 home games. Their spread record during that stint is only 18-29 ATS. Despite their “lucky” win last week, this Eagle team is heading in the wrong direction getting outgained by 520 yards over their last 3 games. Take Buffalo here. | |||||||
12-13-15 | Redskins v. Bears -3 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -125 | 93 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Bears are off a home OT loss last Sunday to San Francisco. Despite the loss, Chicago was +7 in first downs, +73 yards, and +13:00 minutes in time of possession. They also had 1 turnover (0 turnovers for the Niners) but it was a costly one as it was a Cutler interception returned for a TD. The Bears missed 2 FG’s and were in San Francisco territory on 8 of their 13 offensive drives. Conversely, the Niners only crossed midfield 3 times before their 71-yard TD pass on their first offensive play in overtime. Chicago should have won that game easily and we expect a huge effort on Sunday as they are now in desperation mode with a record of 5-7. Washington is working on a short week after losing to arch rival Dallas on Monday night. It will be a tough turnaround for the Skins after a huge division game. Not only that, Washington thought they had pushed the game into overtime scoring they tying TD with 44 seconds remaining only to watch the Cowboys quickly get into FG range and hit a 54 yarder to win 19-16. The Redskins have actually been fairly solid at home but they flat out stink on the road. They are 0-5 away from home losing by an average margin of -15 PPG. The Bears have the better offensive AND defensive numbers on the season. Chicago is +9 YPG on the year while Washington is -30 YPG on the season. We like the Bears to bounce back after a game they should never have lost and pick up a home win on Sunday. | |||||||
12-07-15 | Cowboys v. Redskins -150 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
MONEYLINE WAGER: REDSKINS What an ugly Monday Night game tonight between the Cowboys and Redskins but somebody has to win (and cover) and we like Washington. Both have plenty to play for as neither is officially out of the Division playoff race. The Cowboys big problem with their offense that ranks 29th in points per game (18.5PPG), 26th yards per game (331.3YPG) and 28th in points per play (.298). They have been outrushed in three of their last four games so it's not just the passing attack in Dallas that is suffering. Dallas on the road without Romo has been horrendous this season averaging just 15.3PPG their last three away from home. Washington and QB Kirk Cousins has been dynamite at home this season with 5 straight wins and which have come by an average of 11.4PPG. Washington is better than average offensively in points per play, yards per play, 3rd and 4th down conversions and red zone TD's. The Redskins have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings and we like them to get a 7 or more point home win here | |||||||
12-06-15 | Colts v. Steelers -9 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -9 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Colts have been outgained in 9 of their last 10 including last week’s win at home vs Tampa. Hasselbeck is 3-0 beating Tampa, Jacksonville, and Houston but Indy was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined margin of -132 yards. Their luck runs out here against a very good Pittsburgh game. The Steelers, who in our opinion are one of the best teams in the NFL, are in must win mode with a 6-5 record. They outplayed Seattle on the road last week in a 39-32 loss outgained the Hawks by over 100 yards. 4 interceptions were the difference in that game. Roethlisberger has been cleared to play after a concussion last week and we look for Pittsburgh to put up big numbers again offensively. They have outgained each of their last 4 opponents by a combined 420 yards. On the season Pittsburgh is +0.7 YPP while Indy is -0.7 YPP. Last year the Steeler walloped a good Indy team 51-34 putting up almost 700 total yards. That was WITH Andrew Luck at QB. Pittsburgh is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner making them very dangerous. Steelers win by at least 2 TD’s on Sunday. | |||||||
12-06-15 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 45.5 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 points - KC @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We will play OVER in the Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders game. The Chiefs got off to a horrible start to the season but have found their 'groove' by winning 5 straight. After scoring 21 or less points in three straight games prior to the winning streak the offense has exploded for 29 or more points in 4 of 5 games and have averaged 32PPG their last five. Will they score against the Raiders today? You bet they will! Oakland's defense is all of a sudden hemorrhaging points as they've allowed 29 or more points in 3 of their last 6 games. Oakland 26th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 25.5PPG and rank 20th or worse in several key defensive categories. Offensively the Raiders have plenty of weapons with QB Carr and wideouts Crabtree and Cooper. Oakland is 10th in yards per game O, 8th in points per play at .387 and 12th overall in scoring at 24PPG. Going back to the KC offense they are 5th in scoring at 26.1PPG, 5th in points per play at .418 and 11th in yards per play O. The last three meetings between these two teams have all ended with 44 or more points. The bet here is obvious to us and the stats support it...OVER! | |||||||
12-06-15 | Jets v. Giants OVER 46 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
Over 46 Points – NY Jets @ NY Giants – One flat out bad defense and an over rated defense are what we have in this game. The Giants are dead last in the NFL in YPG allowed at 420. They also allow over 6 YPP and they have been a bit lucky this year to allow only 24 PPG. With YPG & YPP stats like the ones above, a team will usually allow usually 27 to 30 PPG. The Jets defense began the season on a tear holding 3 of their first 4 opponents to 14 points or less. Since then they’ve allowed every offense they’ve faced to score at least 20 points (7 straight games). They’ve allowed 25 PPG during that stretch which would rank them 25th in the NFL if it was a season long stat. The Jet offense has scored at least 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. The only two times they were held under that number they scored 17 and both were against top of the line defenses (Houston & Buffalo). Against bottom of the barrel type defense like the Giants the Jets have looked very good scoring 38 & 27 vs Miami, 34 vs Washington, and 28 vs Jacksonville. We look for those type numbers on Sunday. The Giant offense is one of the best in the NFL averaging 26 PPG (6th in the league). They are off a poor performance last week scoring only 14 and we look for a bounce back this week. In their four games leading up to last week the G-Men put up 27, 49, 32, and 26 points. This total is set too low and we like the OVER. | |||||||
12-05-15 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Iowa | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -3.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET MSU comes into this game with one loss vs undefeated Iowa yet Sparty is the favorite. MSU had a “weird” year as far as the spread goes. They were overvalued early in the season as they didn’t cover a single game in their first 6 starts losing those games by -46.5 points to the number (an average of 7.7 PPG behind the spread). However, since that terrible spread run, MSU has covered 5 of 6 down the stretch capturing those games by a whopping +70 points above the number (an average of 11.6 PPG above the spread). We could now make a case that they are actually undervalued based on those numbers. The only game they didn’t cover in the last 6 was @ Nebraska where they lost by 1 point as a 3.5 point favorite. The Spartans actually led that game by 12 points with under 2:00 remaining and the Huskers pulled off the miracle, and controversial, comeback. If not for that, we’re staring at two undefeated Big Ten teams facing off for all the marbles. While Michigan State struggled at times against lower tier Big Ten teams (Purdue, Rutgers, etc…) they stepped up big in their big games beating both Michigan & Ohio State on the road. While their Michigan win was considered quite lucky with a blocked punt return as time expired, they dominated the game statistically. In fact, if you look at those two big wins from a statistical standpoint, there is no doubt who the best team was. In those two games (Michigan & Ohio State) combined, MSU was +22 first downs & +318 total yards. And let’s not forget they played @ OSU with their back up QB. Starting QB Cook is back at full strength and ready to go after a very good performance at home vs Penn State last week. Iowa closed out their undefeated regular season by holding on for a 28-20 win over Nebraska. The Hawks were outgained in that game 433 to 250 and the Huskers took 39 more offensive snaps! So how did Iowa pull it off? They can thank Nebraska QB Armstrong who made a number of poor decisions on his way to throwing 4 interceptions. The Hawkeyes squeaked by in 3 of their final 4 wins holding off Indiana, Minnesota, & Nebraska in tight games. Iowa isn’t really great at anything in particular ranking 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring offense, 4th in scoring defense, 5th in total offense, and 5th in total defense. The Hawkeyes had only one really big win over a solid team and that was a 30 point thrashing of Northwestern. Their other wins against solid teams came by 3 at home vs Pitt, by 4 @ Wisconsin. These two played 4 common opponents this season (Purdue, Maryland, Nebraska, & Indiana). MSU’s combined stats vs those foes were +45 points, +221 total yards, & -10 points to the spread. Iowa’s combined stats in those games were +52 points, -99 total yards, & +2.5 points to the spread. Iowa skirted through an easy Big Ten schedule to get to this point. MSU, on the other hand, beat all of the Big Ten’s best (Michigan & OSU) to get here. Sparty is the better team and they show it on Saturday. | |||||||
12-05-15 | USC v. Stanford OVER 58.5 | Top | 22-41 | Win | 100 | 51 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 58 Points - Stanford vs USC - Saturday at 7:45 PM ET We were on the OVER last week when Stanford played host to Notre Dame and the game went way over the posted number of 56 (Final was 38-36). We don’t see much changing this week as Stanford plays USC in the Pac 12 Championship game. Two great offenses and just OK defenses lead to a high scoring game here. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) with Stanford ranking 5th and USC 13th. The Trojans come in averaging 36 PPG while Stanford is putting up 37 PPG. Since their opening season loss to Northwestern, the Cardinal have scored at least 30 points in their last 11 games. The Trojans have gotten to at least 30 points in 8 and have been held under 27 points only once this season. Both offenses in this game are FAR ahead of their defenses. Stanford has long been known for a stout defense but the fact is they have not been that this season. They rank just 61st nationally in defensive efficiency and 7 of their 12 opponents have reached at least 22 points. Most of those offenses aren’t nearly as potent as USC’s. The Trojans are in the same situation. Their defense is “OK” but far from great. They are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency. They have allowed 21 points or more in 7 straight games. These two met earlier in the season and Stanford won 41-31 and they put up 900 yards of combined offense. We look for a similar point total on Saturday. Take the OVER. | |||||||
12-03-15 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
PLAY UNDER PACKERS VS LIONS The bet to make tonight is on the UNDER in the Packer/Lions game. These teams have clearly had some ups and downs but analyzing recent trends we find both teams defenses played extremely well. The Packers have allowed 18, 13 and 17 points their last three games and over 50 less yards per game defensively in that same time frame (7th best average in the NFL last three games). The same can be said about the Lions defense the last three games as they've allowed just 16, 13 and 14 points and 80 less yards per game defensively which is the 4th best average in the past three weeks. Both teams are playing exceptionally well in the defensive backfields and can neutralize both Rodgers and Stafford forcing each team to run the football. In the first meeting of the season these two teams combined for just 650 total yards of offense and 34 total points. The 'under' has cashed 4 of the last five meetings on this field and we expect another lower scoring game tonight. | |||||||
11-30-15 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 41 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41 Points - Baltimore @ Cleveland, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Two of the NFL's worst defenses square off tonight and we expect both teams to put up plenty of points to go over this number. Cleveland gives up 27.7PPG which is 30th in the league, 407.3 yards per game (30th), .421 points per play (30th), 6.2 yards per play (30th) and opponents red zone TD's per game at 3.2 (31st). Baltimore is slightly better in those same categories but this isn't the same Ravens defense that had Ray Lewis playing on it. Baltimore is 23rd in points allowed per game at 24.9PPG, 17th in yards per game, 23rd in points per play and 17th in yards per play defense. The Ravens have allowed 20+ points in 9 of their last 10 games overall. Cleveland has given up 26 or more points in 7 of their last eight and 30+ in 5 of their last seven. When these two met earlier this season (the last game QB Josh McCown started) the Browns put up 33 points, 25 first downs and over 500 yards of total offense with McCown racking up 457 through the air. Baltimore has a change at QB tonight too with Matt Schaub getting the start for the injured Flacco but we don't see a dramatic drop off as Schaub has been a starter in this league for years and should be ready for the opportunity (ie: Matt Hasselbeck for the Colts). The Ravens have gone over the total in 5 of their last 8 against the rest of the AFC North and Cleveland has gone over in 4 straight at home. Even mediocre offense will look good against subpar defenses tonight. BET OVER! | |||||||
11-29-15 | Steelers +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH The Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger healthy are definitely the better team here in our opinion. Seattle just isn’t the Seattle of last year. A team that was seemed invincible at home already has 2 losses here and their home wins have come against Chicago (without Cutler), Detroit by 3, and San Fran. Pittsburgh is better than their 6-4 record as 2 of their 4 losses have come with Roethlisberger out. The two losses with him in the line up were tight games vs two of the NFL’s best (New England & Cincy). When Big Ben is in the line up, the Steelers have outgained every opponent this season. They’ve also had 2 weeks to prepare for this one giving them a huge advantage. The Seahawks have beaten up on the weaklings of the NFL and struggled with the good teams. They are 5-5 and have yet to beat a team with a current record above .500. The Seattle defense, which was impenetrable last year, has already allowed 27 or more points 5 times this season. Seattle beat SF last week and they are 0-6 ATS their last 6 following an outright win. Pitt thrives as a dog with a 32-19-3 ATS mark since 2004. We like the Steelers on Sunday. | |||||||
11-29-15 | Bills v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -5.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME CHALK GAME OF THE MONTH The Bills are in a tough scheduling situation here coming off a HUGE Monday night affair against the Patriots and now travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team playing extremely well right now. The Chiefs really struggled defensively to start the season but in their last six games they've allowed just 18, 16, 13, 10, 13 and 3 points or just 12.1PPG. In their last three games the Chiefs have allowed the second fewest yards defensively in the entire NFL They've also found their rhythm offensively by scoring 23, 45, 29 and 33 points their last four games and they outgained all four of those foes. Buffalo has now been outgained their last two games and they could struggle offensively here as starting QB Tyrod Taylor is out which means EJ Manuel will be the starter. Manuel is 2-2 SU this season in his starts with 3 TD's and 3 INT's. Lifetime he's 9-10 as a starter, 4-6 on the road. Kansas City is better in terms of yards per play offense and defense and they've won their last two games at home by 35 and 10 points respectively. Kansas City is a wallet stuffing 8-3 ATS their last eleven home games and we expect them to win this home game by more than a TD. | |||||||
11-28-15 | Arizona State v. California -3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* California -3.5 over Arizona State, Saturday at 10 PM ET Cal has a lot to play for on Senior Day. A win pushes them to 7-5 and their first winning season since 2011. They are bowl eligible but obviously can move up the pecking order with a win on Saturday. The Bears are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming at the hands of USC 27-21. They catch ASU coming off their huge rivalry win over Arizona, a game which made the Devils bowl eligible. We expect a letdown here from the Devils and that won’t get it done as they are already a poor road team at 1-3 on the season. Cal actually is off a 35-22 loss @ Stanford but the Bears, with the exception of the final score, played very well. The Bears outgained what many consider to be the best team in the Pac 12 by 140 yards. Cal has the much better QB in Jared Goff and ASU’s top offensive weapon, RB Richard is most likely out here with an ankle problem. Cal is the better team in our opinion and should be the more motivated one as well. | |||||||
11-28-15 | Notre Dame v. Stanford OVER 56 | Top | 36-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points - Stanford @ Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on FOX Two great offenses and just OK defenses lead to a high scoring game here. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) with Notre Dame ranking 6th and Notre Dame 7th. The Irish come in averaging 35 PPG while Stanford is putting up 37 PPG. Since their opening season loss to Northwestern, the Cardinal have scored at least 30 points in their last 10 games. They have topped 40 points in half of those games (5). The Irish have gotten to at least 30 points in 7 of their games this season. Last week Notre Dame scored only 19 points against a top notch BC defense, however the golden domers put up 450 yards of offense and over 6 YPP so they should have scored much more. Both offenses in this game are FAR ahead of their defenses. Stanford has long been known for a stout defense but the fact is they have not been that this season. They rank just 58th nationally in defensive efficiency and 6 of their 11 opponents have reached at least 22 points. Most of those offenses aren’t nearly as potent as Notre Dame’s. The Irish are in the same situation. Their defense is “OK” but far from great. They are ranked 40th in defensive efficiency. Before the last two weeks, the Irish had allowed their previous 8 opponents to score at least 20 points. The last two weeks their defense has looked better on the scoreboard, however that was facing to terrible offenses in Boston College & Wake Forest. Both of these teams have the potential to put up 30+ points in this game and we think they do. Take the OVER. | |||||||
11-28-15 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +1 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State +1 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - ASA's RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR The host of the annual Egg Bowl has won 10 of the last 11 meetings and we think MSU (the home team) gets the win again this season. Ole Miss is just 2-2 on the road this year and they’ve been outgained in three of their four games away from home. They lost @ Florida & Memphis by double digits. Their road wins came at a struggling Auburn by 8 and 43-37 @ Bama early in the season when the Tide outgained Ole Miss but had a whopping 5 turnovers. This is a tough match up for the Rebel defense facing a red hot MSU QB Dak Prescott who has over 1,100 yards passing in his last 3 games. The Ole Miss defense has allowed over 1,000 yards passing in their last 3 games and those were against fairly pedestrian passing attacks (LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn). The Bulldogs have hit their stride winning 4 of their last 5 games with the only loss coming to Alabama. Ole Miss has been outgained at home each of the last two weeks beating LSU and losing to Arkansas. State has won 7 of the last 8 meetings here in Starkville and there is really no reason the Rebs should be favored here. We’ll take the value with Mississippi State at home. | |||||||
11-27-15 | Oregon State v. Oregon -35 | Top | 42-52 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -35 over Oregon State, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK This is a total mismatch. OSU is struggling, they can’t stop the run, and they are really banged up and simply ready to end the season. Oregon is hitting their stride. After struggling early in the year with QB Adams injured, they have kicked it into high gear with Adams now at 100%. The last 3 weeks the Ducks have crushed Cal outgaining them by 345 yards, beat Stanford on the road and then crushed USC last week. OSU is clearly running out of gas. They are 2-9 on the season and nothing on the horizon except ending a disappointing year on Saturday. In their last 3 games they’ve lost to UCLA 41-0, lost to Cal 54-24, and lost to Washington 52-7. It could have been much worse as UCLA led 41-0 with 6:00 minutes still remaining in the THIRD QUARTER! Last week Washington led 52-0 with 5:00 minutes still remaining in the THIRD QUARTER! In those three games they allowed almost 2,000 total yards and a whopping 862 yards on the ground. The Beaver offense has been terrible this year and held to 13 points or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games. That will be a big problem here trying to keep up with an Oregon offense that is clicking averaging 286 YPG rushing and 250 YPG passing. The Beavs, as bad as they are, continue to be over rated by the oddsmakers. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games to the spread and many have not even been close. In those 8 games, they’ve underperformed the number (figuring game with spread involved) by a crazy -108 points. That’s losing to the spread by an average of almost 2 TD’s per game. The Ducks can name this score. Lay it. | |||||||
11-27-15 | Iowa v. Nebraska +2 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +2 over Iowa, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH This line is very telling. Iowa is undefeated and ranked in the top 5 yet only favored by 1 point @ a 5-6 Nebraska team? We think the Huskers pull the upset here. Nebraska is coming off a bye and they have to win this game to qualify for a bowl game. That is BIG here in Nebraska where bowl games are an annual right of passage. This program has only missed the post-season twice since 1969 and you can bet coach Mike Riley has brought that up over their 2 weeks preparing for this game. Despite their 5-6 record, the Huskers are a solid football team. 5 of those losses came in the final few seconds and by a total of 13 points. They are the only team to beat Michigan State this year. NU is outgaining their opponents by +30 YPG and by +0.4 YPP. They are definitely better than their record. Iowa has been skating by for 3 weeks now. They have already won the Big Ten West and they are locked into the Conference Championship Game next week. The pressure of their undefeated season is mounting. They struggled to get by Indiana on the road three weeks ago, beat Minnesota 40-35 two weeks ago, and then beat a bad Purdue team last week but were outgained in the game. Iowa thrives on running the ball and that’s Nebraska’s strength (109 YPG allowed on just 3.6 YPC). The Husker defense has struggled against the pass, but Iowa is not a prolific passing team. Everything points to an upset here and we’ll call for Nebraska to win this one outright at home. | |||||||
11-26-15 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +9 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH The Bears are playing their best football of the year right now and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they pull this upset. Chicago is 4-3 their last 7 games, however they are “this close” to being 7-0 as all three losses were down to the wire with losing margins of 2, 3, and 3 points. Last week they took Denver to the wire in a 17-15 loss. The Packers are getting too much credit here in our opinion. Let’s not forget that before last week’s win @ Minnesota, the Pack lost 3 in a row including here at Lambeau to a 1-7 (at the time) Detroit team. Now they are laying almost double digits to an improving Chicago team? We don’t think so. The Packers are not as good as their 7-3 record might indicate. They were outgained last week @ Minnesota and have been out yarded in 5 of their last 6 games. In fact, for the season Green Bay is -27 YPG and -0.3 YPP which aren’t the normal numbers for a team that has won 70% of their games so far this season. Chicago has better overall YPG numbers on both sides of the ball as they are +12 YPG on the season. These two met earlier in the year and Chicago outgained the Packers, had more first downs, and a better time of possession in a 31-23 loss. After their rough start, the Bears have been competitive for 7 straight weeks and we see no reason that changes vs on over valued Packer team. | |||||||
11-24-15 | Bowling Green v. Ball State +23.5 | Top | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Ball State +23 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET BG is already locked into the MAC Championship game next week so how much motivation will they have for this final road game? Probably not a whole lot. Their goal is to win and get to the championship game without any big injuries. They don’t need to win this game by 30 points. While Ball State has fallen short of expectations this year, they have been competitive at home and we think they bring their best for their home & season finale tonight. The two top tier MAC teams they’ve played here at home are Central Michigan (lost by 2) and Toledo (lost by 14). For comparison’s sake, Toledo is definitely on par with Bowling Green and actually beat the Falcons on the road last week 44-28. That’s what makes this line so interesting. Toledo was -5.5 here @ Ball State and now the Cards are getting a full 23 points from a comparable team in Bowling Green! Another example, Northern Illinois is the top team in the other half of the MAC and will meet BG in the Championship game if they are able to beat Ohio at home tonight. Yet NIU was favored by just 10.5 AT HOME vs Ball State a few weeks ago. The situation and value is definitely with Ball State and we’ll grab it. | |||||||
11-23-15 | Bills +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BILLS - Tonight we play on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the host New England Patriots. These two teams met earlier this year with the Pats winning in Buffalo by 8 points. Even though the Patriots have had dominating results this year (+14.9 point differential is best in NFL) we can't ignore the points in this matchup. Of the Patriots 9 wins this season 5 have been by 8-points or less and their 4 blowout wins have come against Jacksonville, Dallas (without Romo), Miami and Washington who have a combined record of 15-25 SU. New England put up nearly 470 yards of passing offense in the first meeting but that was with RB Dion Lewis and WR Julian Edelman who are both out here with injuries. Yes, Tom Brady will move on and still be great but he'll miss Edelman who was first on the Pats roster in targets at 88, 2nd in receiving yards and 2nd in TD receptions. The Bill are finally healthy on offense after QB Taylor, RB's McCoy and Williams and WR Watkins all missed time with injuries and they put up 55 combined points the past two weeks. Even though we feel Rex Ryan is over-rated as a head coach, he does know how to prepare for the Patriots. Earlier this season when the Bills lost by 8 it was a 5-point game with just over a minute to play. Including his time with the Jets, Rex Ryan and the Patriots games have been decided by 8 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meeting, 3-points or less in 5 of those. Grab the points here in what shapes up to be a close game. | |||||||
11-22-15 | Bengals v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 points - Arizona @ Cincinnati, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Two top 5 offenses and perfect conditions lead to a very high scoring game in this one. Arizona ranks 2nd in the NFL scoring 33 PPG and Cincy is 5th at 26 PPG. Arizona leads the NFL in total offense & Cincinnati is 7th. When it comes to offensive efficiency, these two rank 2nd (Bengals) & 3rd (Cards) in the entire NFL. Both QB’s are performing at a high level as well as Palmer is ranked 2nd in QBR and Dalton is 4th. These two teams have combined to play 18 games on the season and 12 of them have gone OVER the total. Cincy is coming off by far their worst offensive performance of the year scoring just 6 points vs Houston. We expect they’ll bounce back and play very well. Arizona is off a big division game and put up 39 points on a staunch Seattle defense. We expect they’ll continue to play well on that side of the ball. This one goes OVER the number. | |||||||
11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 33-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +3 over KC, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET We like the Bolts getting points here. KC is coming off a HUGE win @ Denver and now they head west again for the 2nd consecutive week. San Diego is off a bye week where they were able to regroup and get ready for this one. The Chargers are much better than their 2-7 record and should be very hungry off a bye. San Diego is outgaining their opponents by 50 YPG. They have outgained 7 of their 9 opponents this season. Offensively the Chargers are 4th in the NFL in total offense (413 YPG), 6th in YPP (5.9), and QB Rivers is 8th in the NFL in QBR. Those numbers do not add up to a team with just 2 wins at this point of the season. Five of their seven losses have come by 8 points or less with four of those coming by 5 points or less. They’ve been right there in nearly every game and we think coming off the bye week they get in the win column on Sunday. This line has now been adjusted too far in our opinion as San Diego is a home dog for the first time this year while KC is a road favorite for the first time. Take the points. | |||||||
11-22-15 | Broncos -1 v. Bears | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -1 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Osweiler being inserted as the starting QB is actually a positive development in our opinion. He can’t be any worse than Manning was. Peyton’s QBR is 31st in the NFL and he has thrown 17 picks compared to just 9 TD’s. We think Osweiler will give the Broncos a better chance on offense. Defensively Denver is fantastic. They are #1 in the NFL in YPG allowed and YPP allowed. Not only that, they are coming off a “poor” performance allowing the Chiefs to score 29 points but still held KC to just barely over 300 total yards. Expect a solid performance here from the Denver defense. Chicago is now the flavor of the week after beating San Diego & St Louis on back to back weekends. Chicago’s 4 wins have come against KC, Oakland, St. Louis, and San Diego, all teams that currently have losing records. Three of those four wins came by 1, 2, and 3 points. They really shouldn’t be laying points to the 7-2 Broncos in our opinion. Denver has HUGE edges defensively allowing 4.3 YPP (to 5.8 for Chicago), 3.5 YPR (to 4.6 for Bears), and 5.3 yards per pass attempt (to 6.7 for Chicago). Bears are just 5-17 ATS their last 22 home games and we’ll gladly take the points here. | |||||||
11-21-15 | Tennessee v. Missouri +7 | Top | 19-8 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri +7 over Tennessee, Saturday at 6:15 PM CT - ASA's CFB HOME DOG GAME OF THE MONTH We like Mizzou at home plus the points over the visiting Tennessee Volunteers. Emotionally the Tigers have an edge here as they are playing their final home game under coach Gary Pinkel who announced his retirement after being diagnosed with lymphoma. With a win the Tigers become Bowl eligible and this senior class will play with high energy here to get it done. Missouri has struggled offensively this season but they looked like they found their rhythm last week against a solid BYU defense when they put up 434 yards of total offense and dominated the time of possession 39 minutes to 21 for the Cougars. Defense is another story though as Mizzou is one of the best defensive units in all of college football. The Tigers give up just 16PPG (6th), 308YPG (10th), 2.9 yards per rush allowed and 4.2 yards per play (7th). Tennessee's vaunted offense with QB Dobbs and RB Hurd will struggle to move the ball against this Tiger defense. Tennessee secured their Bowl game with a win last week and they have their big rival Vanderbilt up next. The Vols are in an unfamiliar role here as a road favorite as they are just 2-3 ATS since 2011. | |||||||
11-21-15 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -5 | Top | 51-50 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET - ASA's SEC GAME OF THE YEAR The Razors have really turned their season around after a poor start. They’ve now won 5 of their last 6 games both SU & ATS with their only outright loss @ Alabama 27-14. They are off back to back road wins vs two of the SEC’s best teams (Ole Miss & LSU). Mississippi State is in a terrible spot here. The Bulldogs are off their much anticipated home game with Alabama. There was a lot of hype entering the game and MSU was trounced 31-6 leaving them deflated. They have a game next week vs in-state arch rival Vandy so this will be a tough game for them both emotionally and physically after playing Bama last week. The Dogs look like they might be wearing down up front defensively as they’ve allowed Mizzou (215 yards rushing) and Bama (263 yards rushing) to roll up big numbers on the ground the last two weeks. That’s a bad sign when facing an Arkansas offense that will absolutely take advantage of that. The Razors have topped 200 yards rushing in 6 of their last 8 games. Arkansas is just happy to be home as they are playing just their 3rd true home game since mid September. They have huge momentum coming into this game after ripping the LSU defense for an impressive 7.9 YPP last week. This number is too small as we expect Arkansas to roll at home. | |||||||
11-21-15 | USC v. Oregon -4 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oregon -4 over USC, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - ASA's PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK We love the value with Oregon at home minus the points over the visiting Trojans. Oregon lost a couple games earlier this season and fell out of favor with the public and the oddsmakers and now we get them at a bargain price here. When the Ducks have a healthy starting QB Adams in the backfield they are extremely dangerous and he takes this team to another dimension. After a hand injury he struggled to find his throwing touch but now that he can grip the football again the Ducks offense has put up 61, 44 and 38 points the past three weeks and the 38 came in a win over Stanford last week who is ranked 28th in Total defense (USC 50th). Oregon has a huge rushing advantage here as they average nearly 300YPG on the ground which is the 5th highest number in all of college football we love strong running teams as low favorites or underdogs. Oregon falls into several different rushing angles that have produced over 68% wins dating back to the late 1980's. Since 2008 the Ducks have been single digit home favorites and they are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS. They are 45-6 SU at home as a chalk since 2008 and with this line so low we like our odds of winning and covering. | |||||||
11-19-15 | Titans v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
PLAY ON: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS In breaking down this game we find the Jags rate slightly higher in terms of offensive efficiency rankings while the Titans are barely better than the Jaguars in defensive efficiency statistics. But Jacksonville has been able to score points while Tennessee hasn't. The Titans have scored 13 or less points in 5 of their last six games and the one game they did top 13-points it was against the Saints who don't stop anyone (defensive coach Ryan fired this week). Last week the Titans managed just 242 total yards of offense and 11 first downs against the Panthers. Jacksonville has put up 20+ points in 5 straight games with QB Bortles leading the way. Bortles has 19 TD passes this year which is the 7th best number in the league. The Jags are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games against a team with a sub .500 record while the Titans have just 2 spread wins in their last 16 games versus losing teams. Jacksonville won't need to score many points to cover this spread as the Titans offense is really struggling to put up points. Lay it. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |