08-24-19 |
Royals v. Indians -1.5 | | 2-4 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 7* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
The level of dominance that should be on display in this match-up is why we're comfortable laying a -155 range price to play the Indians on the run line at -1.5 runs as they host a slumping Royals team. With Mike Clevinger going against Glenn Sparkman in this match-up, the Indians have a huge advantage. Sparkman is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in his 11 appearances (8 starts) on the road this season. Clevinger had some struggles when he first came back into the rotation (in June) but he has been very strong ever since. In July and August, Clevinger is 7-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his 9 starts. The Indians also rate a huge bullpen edge in this match-up too as they have one of the best pens in the majors while the Royals have one of the worst pens in the majors. Kansas City is 14-43 as a money line dog of +200 or more the past 2 and 1 / 2 seasons. The Indians are 18-4 this season as a money line favorite of -200 or more. 65 of the Royals 84 losses have been defeats by a margin of 2 or more runs this year! 62 of Cleveland's 75 wins this season have been victories by a margins of 2 or more runs this season! Given all of the above, it comes as little surprise that our computer math model is forecasting the Indians to roll to a home blowout victory in this one. Bet the Indians -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday |
08-21-19 |
Phillies +1.5 v. Red Sox | | 5-2 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (+1.5 runs) over Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Phillies Drew Smyly has excellent history against the Red Sox and this includes his outings at Fenway Park. This will be the first time he has faced them this season (generally an edge for the pitcher) and from 2013 to 2018 Smyly compiled a 1.70 ERA in nearly 50 innings of work against Boston. Yesterday's 3-2 loss was the 6th time in 9 games that the Red Sox have been held to 4 runs or less. The Phillies have won 5 of their past 7 games and the two losses came by a combined margin of only 3 runs. That being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a play on the run line here. For a very small price (-120 range), Philadelphia can be bet at +1.5 runs here and of course that provides some extra insurance should the Phillies fall short of the outright upset. Philly should enjoy plenty of success against Rick Porcello. The Boston right-hander had a 6.46 ERA in June and a 7.94 ERA in July. He has been better in August but that has had to do with facing two of the worst teams in the majors (Royals and Orioles). In his other start this month, Porcello gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and that is the type of start expected here. Philadelphia is 4-1 in Smyly's starts since his acquisition. The Red Sox are 2-4 in the last 6 home starts Porcello has made as a favorite of -200 or less. Bet the Phillies +1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday |
08-19-19 |
Padres v. Reds -1.5 | | 3-2 |
Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5 runs) over San Diego Padres, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Reds Trevor Bauer is off a tough start but he now makes his 3rd start at Great American Ball Park this season and he has thrived here. One start at this park was as a member of the Indians and the other was his home debut as a member of the Reds. He was phenomenal in both outings as his combined stats show. Bauer allowed 2 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 20 in 14 innings of work. Now Bauer takes on a Padres team struggling at the plate. While San Diego did manage to win the final two games of their series at Philadelphia they also scored just 3 runs yesterday. The Padres had a .383 slugging percentage last week and that ranks them 13th out of the 15 National League teams. For the sake of comparison, the Reds have a .480 slugging percentage in the month of August. Bauer has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 straight home starts (1 with Reds and 3 with Indians). Pitching as the host has suited him well and he also should get plenty of run support. The Cincinnati lineup gets to take shots at a struggling Eric Lauer in this one. The Padres left-hander is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA in road starts this season! In 6 games (5 starts) since the all star break, Lauer has a 6.56 ERA. Of course the above factors are why the Reds are a sizable money line favorite. That being said, we like the value of the run line here as the Reds are available in the +125 price range when laying 1.5 runs. 49 of the Padres 64 losses (more than 75%) have been by two or more runs. 9 of the Reds last 10 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact those 9 victories came by an average victory margin of 4 runs. Coincidentally, our computer math model is forecasting a win by a 4-run margin for the home team in this one. Lay it! Bet the Reds -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday |
08-18-19 |
Astros -1.5 v. A's | | 4-1 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Oakland A's, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Astros are positioned well to avoid a sweep at the hands of a divisional foe that is quickly closing the gap at the top of the AL West. The A's are starting lefty Brian Anderson. That certainly holds some significance here as Houston is 25-8 this season against left-handed starters. The Astros are starting the recently acquired Zack Greinke and he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA this season. Greinke has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his first two starts with Houston. That extends his streak to 5 straight starts with 2 or less earned runs given up. Greinke should enjoy the benefit of plenty of run support in this one as the Astros have a slugging percentage of .517 against southpaws this season. This ranks Houston #2 out of the 30 MLB clubs in that category for this season. The A's Anderson has been better on the road and better in night games this season. That being said, an afternoon home game is not likely to lead to success for the lefty. He has a 4.65 ERA and a .286 BAA in home games this season and a 5.53 ERA and .319 BAA in day games this year. The Astros are in the -175 range on the money line here but a pick range (-110) on the run line. This is where the value is given the above stats as you can see why our computer math model is calling for a road rout here. Greinke and the Astros rate a big edge over Anderson and the A's given all the above factors. Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in late afternoon action Sunday |
08-03-19 |
White Sox v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 |
Loss | -128 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET
The White Sox entered this series having lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. All 8 of those losses came by two or more runs which is why we're taking advantage of the Phillies run line -1.5 runs being available in the -130 range for this one. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge in this one as Aaron Nola will be facing Chicago's Ross Detwiler.. The Phillies Nola has been charged with only 1 loss in his past 8 starts and he has compiled a 1.99 ERA along the way in those 8 outings. Detwiler has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum. Not only has he struggled this season, particularly on the road, the White Sox lefty has struggled ever since the 2015 season. His ERA from 2015 through 2019 is a 6.57 ERA. Detwiler will be facing a Phillies team that entered this series having won 8 of its past 12 games. Philadelphia's last 4 wins came by a combined margin of 19 runs and all 4 games were decided by 2 or more runs. Detwiler is no match for Nola and the slumping White Sox simply can't match the Phillies bats here. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding this series. Chicago has averaged scoring only 1.8 runs per game in the 9-game stretch that has seen them go 1-8. Given all of the above factors, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a dominating home win here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in evening action Saturday |
08-02-19 |
Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | | 4-5 |
Loss | -135 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Texas Rangers (-1.5 runs) over Detroit Tigers, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
Detroit and Texas each were off yesterday. The Tigers are an incredibly bad 22-64 (including 3-16 this season) against AL West opponents. Detroit also is a horrible 13-43 in night games this season. Of course this is a big part of the reason that the Rangers are such a huge favorite on the money line in this game. While we would never lay those types of prices (-250) on a game, we're happy to grab the run line here as the Rangers are available in the -140 range at -1.5 runs. Will the Tigers lose by 2 or more runs? Note that 59 of Detroit's 72 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. Texas has Lance Lynn on the mound for this one and he is 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 17 starts. He completed at least 6 innings in all 17 of those outings! The Tigers start rookie southpaw Tyler Alexander here. His first two starts went well but then he faced a tough lineup in his 3rd MLB start and got crushed by the Mariners. Alexander faces another tough match-up here as the Rangers are one of the top hitting teams in the majors when at home. As for the Tigers, they are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors this season. 39 of the Rangers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs and we like the odds here as they are favoring a huge home win. 17 of the Rangers last 21 wins have come by 2+ runs. Texas is also 4-0 in their last 4 games against Detroit (those were on the road) and also 5-1 the last 6 times they have hosted the Tigers. Bet the Rangers -1.5 runs in evening action Friday |
08-01-19 |
Astros -1.5 v. Indians | | 7-1 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
After getting blasted 10-4 in yesterday's game the Astros are in full-on bounce back mode on Thursday. With Gerrit Cole on the mound and opposed by a pitcher on a strict pitch count and making his first MLB start since 2017, this one is likely to turn into a road rout. Of course the likelihood of a Houston win here is why they are a big favorite on the money line. With that being said, where we get the value here is on the run line as the Astros are available in the -120 price range by laying the 1.5 runs. Cole is in phenomenal current form and also has revenge here against the Indians after a tough hard-luck loss suffered at the hands of Cleveland earlier this season. Cole enters this outing having allowed 1 earned run or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. Also, he has gone at least 7 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. Cleveland's Danny Salazar is returning from major injury issues. He will be limited to, very likely, 70 pitches at most in this one. Though he has pitched well in the minors during his rehab and also piled up the strikeouts there, Salazar is facing a tough lineup in this match-up. Of course major league hitters are much better at making contact with the "swing and miss" stuff that Salazar displayed at the minor league level. The Astros slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 3rd in the majors! The Indians batting average at home ranks them a poor 13th out the 15 American League teams. Both teams have strong bullpens but the Cleveland pen will be asked to do too much here with Salazar's early exit expected. Cole dominates again and Houston rolls to a win by a multiple-run margin. The Astros, as a road favorite of -175 or more, are a long-term 37-14. That is worthy of note here because 35 of the Indians 44 losses this season have been by a margin of 2+ runs. Also, 51 of Houston's 69 wins this season have been by a margin of at least two runs! Bet the Astros -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday |
07-28-19 |
Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | | 9-6 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: New York Yankees (+1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees have gotten crushed so far in this series so everyone is pounding the Red Sox in this Sunday night match-up because of that factor as well as the fact that Chris Sale is on the mound. This has led to exceptional line value with the Yankees on the run line at +1.5 runs. There are very few times you will ever see a strong team with a strong pitcher on the mound getting +1.5 runs at a pick price (-110) but that is the case here. The fact that the Yankees Domingo German is off a season-worst start actually makes this play on the road dog even stronger. Prior to that rough outing German had gone 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA since coming off the injured list early in July. The fact is German is 12-2 this season and opponents are hitting just .227 against him. As for Boston's Chris Sale, many felt he should have come out of his last start prior to the 6th inning but manager Alex Cora sent him back out there and he threw 116 pitches in that game. Granted it was a strong start for the Red Sox southpaw but that was a season high for him in pitches thrown. Now Sale faces a Yankees team that hasn't been kind to him this season. Sale is 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA versus the Bronx Bombers this year. Sale's most recent road start and most recent home start were each successful. However, prior to that Sale allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings! Plain and simple, Sale and the Red Sox are overpriced here and our computer math model has the majority of simulations on the outcome of this game reflecting either an outright upset or a one-run loss for New York. That means strong odds with grabbing the 1.5 runs on the road dog here! Bet the Yankees +1.5 runs in early evening action Sunday |
07-27-19 |
Indians -1.5 v. Royals | | 9-1 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
The Indians Mike Clevinger has been dominating while the Royals Glenn Sparkman continues to struggle! With yesterday's dominating win Cleveland is 19 games over .500 this season while Kansas City is 27 games under .500 on the season. In terms of bullpens, the Indians 3.27 ERA ranks #1 in the majors while the Royals bullpen ranks in the bottom third of the majors for ERA and very near rock bottom for batting average allowed. As for the starting pitchers here, Clevinger has a 1.88 ERA in his 4 July starts. Also, Clevinger has allowed a TOTAL of only 8 earned runs in his last 7 starts against the Royals and he did go at least 6 innings in all 7 of those outings. He has dominated KC to say the least! As for Royals starter Sparkman, he has allowed 9 earned runs in his last two starts against the Indians and did not finish the 6th inning in either outing. Overall, Sparkman has had but one good start in his last 5 outings! In the other 4 starts the Royals right-hander has allowed 21 earned runs in 20 and 1 / 3 innings. Given all of the above it comes as no surprise that the forecast here, per our computer math model, is an absolute road rout! Bet the Indians -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday |
07-26-19 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Nationals | | 4-2 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start for the Dodgers here. Los Angeles is off back to back losses which is rare. Look for this road trip to get the Dodgers re-focused and rolling again. LA is a fantastic 18-4 this season when they enter a match-up after 5 or more consecutive home games. Not only that, their record when Ryu is pitching is phenomenal! The Dodgers are 11-2 in the last 13 starts he has made. On the season Ryu is 11-2 and he has been amazingly consistent. Ryu has allowed just ONE earned run or less in 11 of his last 14 starts! The Los Angeles left-hander has been superb in his 4 career starts against Washington as he has a 1.35 ERA over 26 and 2 / 3 innings! Ryu will be opposed by the Nationals Anibal Sanchez. The Washington right-hander has pitched a little better of late but he has still been far from overpowering! In July his strikeouts are down and he has a 4.91 ERA in his two starts since the all star break. Also, Sanchez is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Dodgers and that includes getting rocked by the Dodgers. That is the expectation here and that is why this play is on the run line. We avoid laying the big money line price and instead get nearly an even money price on LA by making use of the run line (-1.5 runs) in this one. Bet LA Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday |
07-24-19 |
Royals v. Braves -1.5 | | 2-0 |
Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET
The Braves are off a tight 1-run home loss to the Royals yesterday. That sets this one up well for a bounce back spot as Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times they were off a home loss. Also, the Braves have a huge pitching edge here. Kansas City's Brad Keller has a low ERA in his July starts but he has been hit hard in both road outings. The point is that Keller has been playing with fire and he has been lucky that he has escaped jams and hasn't been burned. In road outings, Keller has been in consistent trouble in 6 of the last 7. Taking away the lone good outing, the other 6 away from home for Keller have seen him allow 45 hits in 30 and 2 / 3 innings. Keller's most recent start was at home and he allowed only 2 earned runs but he gave up 9 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings. In his most recent road start Keller walked 5 in 5 and 2 / 3 innings. Again, the theme with Keller is constantly pitching himself into jams and the Braves have the potent lineup to make him pay. In fact, Atlanta has scored more runs at home than any other team in the National League. As for Kansas City, their road offense has them mired at the bottom of the AL rankings with other bad teams like the White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles. The Braves also have a big bullpen edge as they rank in the top 8 teams in the majors for bullpen ERA while the Royals relief pitching has been hit at a .273 clip this season which ranks them dead last (#30) out of all teams in the majors. KC was outhit 11-5 yesterday and yet still won the game 5-4. We don't see them being so lucky today. The Braves Julio Teheran is back in top form as he has a 1.53 ERA in the month of July and opponents are hitting only .190 against him this month. The Royals were 15-35 this season on the road before eking out yesterday's win. Lightning won't strike twice! Kansas City's losing ways resume tonight and note that 47 of KC's 64 losses this season have been defeats by a multiple run margin. Per our computer math model, the Braves roll at home in this one! Bet Atlanta -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday |
07-22-19 |
Indians -1.5 v. Blue Jays | | 7-3 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cleveland Indians (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:07 PM ET
With another win yesterday Cleveland has now won 13 of 16 games. Of course that is a big part of the reason they are sizable money line favorites on the road at Toronto in this series opener Monday. . Where the value lies with this one is the run line as we can reduce the lay amount to right around a "pick" price by laying the 1.5 runs with Cleveland. The Indians hold big edges here as, even though this game is at Toronto, the Blue Jays are 18-30 at home this season. Out of all 30 MLB teams there are only 2 (Detroit and Baltimore) that have fewer home wins than Toronto. The Indians enter this series having won 11 of their last 15 road games. The Jays are starting Ryan Borucki. The lefty is making his first start of the season after being sidelined with an injury during spring training. In his most recent rehab starts in the minors (at the AAA level) he was hit quite hard (including the long ball 3 times in 2 starts) and now Borucki faces an Indians lineup that has been surging (6 runs scored per game) during their 13-3 run. Unlike the red hot Indians, the Blue Jays have lost 9 of their last 14 games. Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians and he should keep Toronto cold as he has dominated of late. Clevinger has allowed a total of just 2 earned runs in 17 innings in his last 3 starts. The Indians also hold the bullpen edge in this match-up as their 3.26 ERA ranks #1 out of all 30 teams. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday |
07-13-19 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox -1.5 | | 11-2 |
Loss | -100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Boston Red Sox (-1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET
The Red Sox are priced in the -165 range on the money line which is a little pricey but we can put the odds in our favor by laying the -1.5 runs here for the plus money (+115 range) return. Boston is expected to roll here per a significant pitching edge in this match-up. The Dodgers are starting Ross Stripling. He has an 8.00 ERA in his 2 starts in the month of July. Overall, the LA right-hander has struggled in his last 3 starts (17 hits allowed in 12 innings) since taking the spot of Rich Hill in the rotation. Stripling will be opposed by Chris Sale. The Red Sox southpaw is anxious to get back on the hill after a tough start closed out his first half of the season. Though he has given up more runs than usual in his last few starts, Sale has continued to pile up strikeouts and, in many respects, deserved better than what the line score ended up showing. The Dodgers are not very familiar with him (other than Sale mowing them down to close out last year's World Series) and that gives the lefty (with deceptive stuff) a big edge in this match-up. Sale has struck out 153 in his 107 innings on the mound this season. Opponents are hitting just .196 against Sale in night starts this season. 22 of the Dodgers 32 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 36 of Boston's 49 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. The bullpens are nearly equal. The Red Sox are one of the best hitting teams in the majors when at home while the Dodgers are not as strong at the plate when away from home. Combining that with the big starting pitching edge here and a home blowout is on tap at Fenway Park. Bet Boston -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday |
07-03-19 |
Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | | 1-3 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 5 to 2 favorite (-$250 range) but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at -$130 price range here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in his four career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 12-0 the last 12 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 10-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last 12 starts against Miami. 33 of Washington's 43 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 41 of Marlins 51 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. We successfully used the same play when these guys squared off Thursday in Miami and now the rematch is in DC and we look for the Nationals to make it 13 in a row when Strasburg faces the Marlins as Alcantara drops to 0-5 in 5 career starts against the Nats. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday |
06-27-19 |
Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins | | 8-5 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Washington (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
This one is all about the match-ups. Of course we're not going to recommend a money line when a team is a 2 to 1 favorite but the run line (-1.5 runs) is available at nearly a pick'em price here and offers great value. The match-up edges are simply massive in this one. Not only is Washington the much better team and lineup in comparison with Miami, the starting pitching edge is a huge one here. The Marlins are starting Sandy Alcantara and he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his three career starts against the Nationals. Washington is starting Stephen Strasburg and success with him on the mound against Miami has been phenomenal. The Nationals are 11-0 the last 11 times that Strasburg has been on the mound against the Marlins. Strasburg is 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 11 starts against Miami. 31 of Washington's 39 wins this season have been by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. 39 of Marlins 48 losses this season have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Given all of the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model has forecast a Nationals victory by a range of 3 to 4 runs in this one. Bet Washington -1.5 runs in early evening action Thursday |
06-25-19 |
Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-5 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never advise laying a -265 price range on the money line on any team no matter the situation, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -130 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Pittsburgh enters today's game with a 36-40 record on the season. 29 of the Pirates 40 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also note that the average margin of victory in Houston's last 8 wins is 4.6 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 49-30 record this season. 35 of the Astros last 43 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Pirates recently welcomed back Trevor Williams to the rotation and it was ugly to say the least. He allowed 7 earned runs in only 5 innings of work and that was against a bad Tigers team. The Astros start Gerrit Cole here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs on just 20 hits in 31 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 8-2 in Cole's last 10 starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are coming off a tough road trip but they are a different team when they are at home. Houston is 27-11 this season when at home and the Astros are 20-9 this season in games against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, the Pirates are a very poor 14-32 this season when facing a team that is playing .500 ball or better on the season. The Astros certainly fit that category and they get a big start from Cole here and roll over Williams and the Pirates in this one. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday |
06-18-19 |
Astros -1.5 v. Reds | | 3-4 |
Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
While we certainly would not be comfortable laying a -175 price range (the opening number) on the money line on a road team, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the even money price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Cincinnati enters today's game with a 32-38 record on the season. 23 of the Reds 38 losses (including 13 of last 15) have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Cincinnati's average margin of defeat in those 15 losses is 3 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 48-25 record this season. 34 of the Astros last 42 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 17 of the Astros 21 wins away from Houston this season have come by 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Reds are 1-3 in Anthony DeSclafani's 4 home starts this season and he has a 4.79 ERA in those outings plus has been hit hard in recent home starts. The Astros start Justin Verlander here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in 33 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 12-4 this season in Verlander's starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are 20-7 this season in games against teams with a losing record. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday |
05-10-19 |
Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | | 0-6 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Minnesota (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Minnesota, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Twins win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 16-18 record on the season. 15 of Detroit's 18 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Twins, they enter tonight's game with an 11-5 record in home games this season. 9 of those 11 home wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 10 of Minnesota's 11 wins since April 22nd have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Twins average margin of victory this season is 3.9 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-3 in Tyson Ross' road starts this season. The Detroit right-hander recently returned from paternity leave and still was struggling so they even moved this start back a day trying to get him straightened out. The fact is that Tyson Ross is struggling badly including an 8.03 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Minnesota goes with red hot Jake Odorizzi on the bump tonight. The Twins right-hander has been dominating. In his last two starts he has allowed NO earned runs on only 6 hits in 13 innings while striking out 15 batters. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Twins win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 12-36 the last 48 times they've been a road dog in a range of +175 to +250. The Twins are 18-4 the last 22 times (including 5-0 this season) in home games in which they are a favorite in a range of -175 to -250. Bet Minnesota -1.5 runs in evening action Friday |
05-01-19 |
Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | | 3-7 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Philadelphia (-1.5 runs) over Detroit, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -220 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Philadelphia, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -105 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Phillies win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Tigers enter tonight's game with a 13-14 record on the season. 11 of Detroit's 14 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Tigers average margin of defeat this season is 3.3 runs per loss! As for the Phillies, they enter tonight's game with an 11-6 record in home games this season. 13 of Philadelphia's 16 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Phillies average margin of victory this season is 4.3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Tigers are 0-2 in Daniel Norris' last two road starts including his first away from home this season. Norris has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 2 / 3 innings spanning those two road starts. Also, the Detroit left-hander had his rotation spot moved up a day due to Tyson Ross going on paternity leave. Of course this could effect the timing of Norris. Philadelphia goes with Aaron Nola on the bump tonight. The Phillies right-hander is back on track after a rough start to the season. In his last two starts he has allowed only 4 earned runs in 12 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 13 batters. Of course he was one of the best pitchers in the majors last season and a return to improved form is a great sign for he and the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back strong after last night's 3-1 loss. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Phillies win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs tonight! Detroit is 2-6 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Phillies are 7-3 this season in home games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Philadelphia -1.5 runs in early evening action Wednesday |
04-23-19 |
Marlins v. Indians -1.5 | | 3-1 |
Loss | -103 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Cleveland (-1.5 runs) over Miami, Tuesday at 6:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -210 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Cleveland, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -110 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Indians win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Marlins enter tonight's game with a 6-16 record on the season. 12 of Miami's 16 losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Marlins average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 4.3 runs per loss! As for the Indians, they enter tonight's game with a 12-9 record on the season. 9 of Cleveland's 12 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Indians average margin of victory this season is nearly 3 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Marlins Pablo Lopez is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in his two road starts this season. Cleveland goes with Carlos Carrasco on the bump tonight. The Indians right-hander had one rare sub-par outing in his last 3 but in the other two he dominated and struck out 24 in 12 innings! Carrasco also dominated the Marlins in his only career start against them. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Indians win by a margin of 2 to 3 runs tonight! Miami is 1-10 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. The Indians are 4-1 this season in games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs. Bet Cleveland -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday |
04-16-19 |
Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | | 2-4 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Tampa Bay (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
While we certainly would never lay a -250 price range on the money line we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Tampa Bay, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -120 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that a Rays win tonight is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Orioles enter tonight's game with a 7-10 record on the season. All 10 of Baltimore's losses have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Baltimore's average margin of defeat this season is an incredible 5 runs per loss! As for the Rays, they enter tonight's game with a 12-4 record on the season. All 12 of Tampa Bay's wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, the Rays average margin of victory this season is an amazing 4 runs per win! Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Orioles Dylan Bundy is winless with an 8.75 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Baltimore right-hander has allowed 6 homers in his last 2 starts! Tampa goes with red-hot Tyler Glasnow on the bump tonight. The Rays right-hander is a perfect 3-0 with an 0.53 ERA in his 3 starts this season. Glasnow has allowed less HITS (11) than Bundy has allowed RUNS (12) in comparing their 3 starts this season! Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting a Rays win by a margin of 4 to 5 runs tonight! Bet Tampa Bay -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday |
04-09-19 |
Yankees v. Astros -1.5 | | 3-6 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston Astros (-1.5 runs) vs New York Yankees, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Yankees certainly are loaded with some power hitting sluggers but that is also why they are prone to striking out too much. That said, this is not a good match-up for the Yankees. Gerrit Cole is off a superb season last year and he has picked up right where he left off last year as he has struck out 19 in 12 innings in his first two starts. Cole has been dealt a tough 0-2 in the won-loss column however as the run support just hasn't been there in those two games. The key here is that should not be an issue with the Astros at home and taking on an inexperienced starter Jonathan Loaisiga. He was successful in his 4-inning stint last week but that came against the Tigers. Now he goes from facing one of the worst teams in the majors to facing one of the best clubs in the majors. Houston is picking up steam now with 4 straight wins. However, the money line here is far too pricey but we see value with the run line and taking the Astros at -1.5 runs. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 9 games and 8 of the 9 came against poor teams, Detroit and Baltimore. Loaisiga's 5 career MLB starts have averaged just 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he has never gone more than 5 and 1 / 3 in any start. The Yankees bullpen has been solid but will be asked to do too much here against a potent lineup. Yesterday the New York bullpen allowed 3 runs late. They'll be called upon even earlier in this game! Cole should work deep in the game and the Astros bullpen has been one of the best in the majors this season. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday |
04-02-19 |
Red Sox v. A's +1.5 | | 0-1 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Oakland A's (+1.5 runs) vs Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET
The A's won yesterday's game 7-0 and the set up is perfect for the Red Sox to remain cold. Mike Fiers gets the ball for Oakland here and he fired 6 shutout innings (and allowed only 1 hit!) in his first start of the season. Also, the A's right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA in the 4 games he has pitched in his career against Boston. The Red Sox counter with Chris Sale here and he got rocked for 7 runs in just 3 innings in his first start of the season. The Boston lefty allowed 3 homers in those 3 innings. Last season Sale was not quite himself in the post-season and continues to have short outings. He also wrapped up the regular season last year with a couple of shot and sub-par outings.. Until he proves otherwise, Sale deserves to be faded and that is especially true when in this price range and on the road and opposed by a hurler who has proven many times in the past that when he is on he is really on! Fiers continues throwing well here and we're grabbing the extra value with the run line. While the A's are very attractive as a sizable money line home dog here, they're even more attractive when getting +1.5 runs and only having to lay small juice. The only win Boston has this season came by a single run margin and one of the A's last two losses came by a single run as well. The Red Sox have been a very strong team the last two seasons but are only 8-9 when off a shutout loss. The A's are 100-67 at home (including 4-1 this season) and also are 14-7 when off a shutout win. Per our computer math model, most of the simulations we ran show either an A's win or an A's loss by just a single run. We'll grab the Run Line here! Bet Oakland +1.5 runs in night action Tuesday |
10-04-18 |
Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | | 0-6 |
Loss | -125 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Atlanta Braves Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 8:35 PM ET
With the line move here there is excellent line value on the underdog Braves at +1.5 runs on the run line. The price is in the -130 range and it gives you the added insurance of turning a 1-run loss into a winning ticket you can cash at the window. The fact is that we expect the Dodgers to struggle just to win this game let alone win it by 2 or more runs. Los Angeles moved back Clayton Kershaw to Game 2 so Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start here. Though he is also a southpaw he certainly is no Kershaw and the Braves have been one of the best hitting teams in the majors versus left-handed pitching this season. Also Atlanta's Mike Foltneywicz has a stellar 2.48 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a total of just 6 earned runs in his 5 road starts the past two months! The Dodgers Ryu has allowed 38 hits in 35 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 6 home starts. He was truly hit very hard in 3 of those 6 outings and now faces a tough Atlanta lineup. No doubt the Braves should be "in this one" all the way and have a great shot at the outright upset. We'll grab the extra insurance with the run line should they fall one run short in this one. Bet Atlanta on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Thursday |
10-03-18 |
A's +1.5 v. Yankees | | 2-7 |
Loss | -130 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland Athletics Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ New York Yankees, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
Oakland has decided on a multi-pitcher effort in the AL Wild Card game as Liam Hendriks is slated to get the start but is likely to only pitch an inning or two. With nearly all A's arms available in a "win or go home" game, we like the odds of a strong effort from the A's pitchers in this one and will take advantage of the value in fading Luis Severino. The Yankees righty has struggled every since the All Star break. Of course many will remember his first start of last year's post-season too where he was drilled by Minnesota and forced to exit in the first inning due to inefficiency. Overall, Severino had a sub-par post-season last year and we like the value with Athletics +1.5 runs on the run line. The A's did hit Severino hard in early September and knocked him out of the game by the 3rd inning. The Yankees, on the run line at -1.5 runs, have only cashed a ticket TWICE in their last EIGHT games in the Bronx! The A's have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for months now and at +1.5 runs have been particularly lethal dating back to early in the season. Even including their early season stats when they weren't playing as well, Oakland has only 51 losses by 2 or more runs this season meaning their record at +1.5 runs would be 111-51. The Yankees are only 17-15 on the money line their last 32 games and, at -1.5 runs, that record turns into an unimpressive 13-19. Bet the Oakland A's on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Wednesday |
09-28-18 |
Nationals v. Rockies -1.5 | | 2-5 |
Win | 105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
The Rockies are 9-1 in Kyle Freeland's last 10 starts. In home starts Colorado is 12-2 in Freeland's 14 starts. The Rockies southpaw has a 2.36 ERA in those outings. Of course Colorado is in a big battle for a playoff spot and they're hosting a Washington team that has long been eliminated from post-season contention and that is 0-2 in games against the Rockies when Freeland is starting. Joe Ross got rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings in his lone career start versus Colorado. The Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games and all 7 wins came by 2 or more runs. That is why there is great value with the run line here. By laying the 1.5 runs the Rockies price is right around break even. The Nationals have lost both the starts that Ross has made this season. The Rockies are on a 37-22 run in games against teams with a winning record. Washington is just 18-26 this season in games against left-handed starters. Bet the Colorado Rockies on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Friday |
09-23-18 |
Cubs -1.5 v. White Sox | | 6-1 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET
The Cubs are still trying to hold off the Brewers in the NL Central. Of course the White Sox would like to play the role of spoiler but this one sets up as a complete pitching mismatch. The Cubs Kyle Hendricks has allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in his last 6 starts and those outings have total nearly 39 innings! White Sox starter Carlos Rodon has been at the other end of the spectrum of late as he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts and has had major issues with command of his pitches which has led to far too many walks. We get line value here by playing the run line with the Cubs as, at -1.5 runs, their price is in the -125 range. 7 of the Cubs last 8 road wins have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. As for the White Sox, 36 of their last 42 losses have come by 2 or more runs! This one has "road rout" written all over it. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early afternoon action Sunday |
09-21-18 |
Cubs v. White Sox +1.5 | | 4-10 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago White Sox Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Chicago Cubs, Friday at 4:05 PM ET
The White Sox, of course, are not going to the post-season. The Cubs, very likely, are going to the post-season but they are still in a battle for the Central Division title with the Brewers. That said, the cross-town rival Pale Hose would love nothing more than to prevent the Cubs from getting any closer to that NL Central title! The White Sox will be ready to go here Friday afternoon and they have a red hot Reynaldo Lopez on the mound. The ChiSox are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and the lone loss came by just a single run. That is another reason we like the value here of the +1.5 runs with the home dog. Lopez has allowed just 2 earned runs TOTAL on only 15 hits in the 27 innings spanning his last 4 starts! He has been piling up strikeouts and the Cubs have never faced it. Now, while it is also true that the White Sox hitters have not faced Cubs starter Jose Quintana, they do know plenty about him as he went to the Cubs from the White Sox last season! Of course Quintana would love to have a good start against his former team but Lopez is even hotter than Quintana right now and we love the home dog value in this match-up. The Cubs are only 6-6 in their last 12 games but 3 of those 6 wins came by just 1 runs so, at -1.5 runs, the Cubbies are just 3-9 their last 12 games! Bet the White Sox on the run line (+1.5 runs) in afternoon action Friday |
09-18-18 |
Rays -1.5 v. Rangers | | 4-0 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
This one has the makings of a complete mound mismatch. The Rays are 7-0 in Blake Snell's last 7 starts and all 7 wins have come by 2 or more runs. That is why, though we would never lay -200 on the money line, we're very comfortable laying the small juice on the run line here in a game where the likelihood of a win by 2 or more runs is strong. Snell is 7-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his 8 starts since the All Star break and he has held hitters to a .183 batting average on the season! As for the Rangers Yovani Gallardo, he has a 6.67 ERA on the season. Plus he has been especially bad under the lights! In evening games Gallardo has an 8.32 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against him. Surprisingly the Rangers have won a fair share of games with Gallardo on the mound but that hasn't been due to his pitching form! Also, Texas has lost 4 of his last 6 starts and all 4 defeats came by 2 or more runs. The Rangers, overall, are 3-8 their last 11 games and 7 of the 8 losses came by 2 or more runs. The Rays, overall, are 21-5 their last 26 games and 17 of the 21 wins came by 2 or more runs. All signs point to another big win tonight! Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the Rays on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Tuesday |
09-11-18 |
A's -1.5 v. Orioles | | 3-2 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET
Oakland is a perfect 6-0 in Mike Fiers 6 starts since they acquired him from Detroit. Also, each of the last 4 wins have come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. With Oakland a red hot 7-2 in their last 9 games and all 7 wins having come by a victory margin of no less than 2 runs, the A's are offering great value on the run line in this match-up. Of course Baltimore has been at the other end of the spectrum as their awful season simply can't end soon enough. Not only are the Orioles an ugly 1-8 in their 9 games heading into this match-up, 6 of the 8 losses have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. Baltimore will have Alex Cobb on the mound for this one. Though he has pitched a little better of late it is still hard to ignore the fact that, prior to winning Cobb's most recent home start, the O's were 0-9 this season in his starts at Camden Yards! Also, the Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the majors while the A's bullpen is one of the best. Lay the 1.5 runs on the run line here and look for a road rout. Bet the A's on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday |
09-10-18 |
Indians v. Rays +1.5 | | 5-6 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bays Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Cleveland Indians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Rays are one of the hottest teams inn baseball and are still mathematically alive in the wild card race. The Indians have very nearly clinched the AL Central Division and are very nearly locked in to being the #3 seed in the AL for this post-season. The point is that Tampa Bay is arguably the more motivated team here and we like them as a home dog in this spot. We also like the added value of the Rays on the run line at +1.5 runs. That way if TB loses a tight one by just a run we still cash our ticket and the current price (-130 range) makes it very economical to grab the Rays on the run line. The Indians are just 4-5 their last 9 games and one of those wins came by just a single run so they are only 3-6 their last 9 games on the run line at -1.5 runs. The Rays have won 7 of their last 8 games and their starter, Castillo, will only go an inning or two tonight but these "bullpen games" for Tampa have been very successful this season. Their bullpen arms are rested too after Chirinos gave them over 6 innings yesterday plus Snell gave them a great start on Friday. As for the Indians Kluber, he certainly has great numbers on the season but he is 9-7 in night games compared to 9-0 in day games this season. Also, he has a 3.67 ERA in road starts compared to a 2.05 ERA in home starts. The last time he started at Tropicana Field he gave up 3 earned runs and the Rays (other than one bad game at Toronto) have limited their opponents to just 2.6 runs per game in their other 8 games dating back to the last day of August. Look for a low scoring game where the +1.5 runs offers phenomenal value. Grab the run line here and look for a home dog upset. Bet the Rays on the run line (+1.5 runs) in early evening action Monday |
09-04-18 |
Royals v. Indians -1.5 | | 3-9 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Cleveland Indians Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
As a road underdog in a money line range of +175 to +250, the Royals are only 8-36 their last 44 and that is even after yesterday's surprising big dog upset win for Kansas City. Of course we're not going to lay a huge money line price here with the Indians but we're happy to only pay a price of about -110 and bet on Cleveland on the run line at -1.5 runs in this one. Royals starter Danny Duffy is 2-9 with a 5.79 ERA in his 14 career starts against the Indians. He has been crushed by Cleveland in his starts against them this season and that includes allowing 15 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings in the last two starts. The Indians Mike Clevinger is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his 7 career starts versus Kansas City. The right-hander has held the Royals down again this season and has compiled a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts and two of those were wins that each came by a multiple-run margin. 66 of the Royals 91 losses this season have come by at least a 2 run margin. 59 of the Indians 77 wins this season have come by at least two runs. You can see that the odds strongly favor a Cleveland win coming by at least 2 runs in this match-up. Lay the run line here and look for a home blowout. Bet the Indians on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday |
08-21-18 |
Royals v. Rays -1.5 | | 1-4 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
As a road underdog in a money line range of +175 to +250, the Royals are on a 7-35 run. Of course we're not going to lay a huge money line price here with the Rays but we're happy to only pay a price of about -125 and bet on Tampa Bay on the run line at -1.5 runs in this one. TB is 7-3 this season when off of a shutout win and also 9-4 this year when they are at home in a game with a posted total of 7 runs or less. Of course not many runs are expected here, as you can tell by the low posted total on this game, but we expect the Rays to do plenty of damage here. Kansas City's Glenn Sparkman has made 11 MLB appearances (just 1 start) and he is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA and, worst of all, a .356 batting average against in these outings. He will be no match for the Rays Blake Snell whom has (incredibly!) allowed 1 earned run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts! Also, when Tampa wins with him on the mound they tend to win large! 5 of their 6 home wins with Snell on the mound have come by a multiple-run margin. 63 of the Royals 87 losses this season have come by at least a 2 run margin. 41 of the Rays 64 wins this season have come by at least two runs. You can see that the odds strongly favor a Tampa Bay win coming by at least 2 runs in this match-up. Lay the run line here and look for a home blowout. Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Tuesday |
08-19-18 |
Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | | 2-10 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET
Yankees have won 9 of their last 13 games and each of their last 7 wins have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. The Blue Jays have lost 20 of their last 33 games and all 20 of those losses have been defeats by a multiple-run margin! That means if you like the Yankees to win here you certainly can also like the strong odds (including 20 in a row!) that the win comes by two or more runs! By taking New York on the run line we only have to lay small juice (-125 range currently) and the Yankees J.A. Happ should dominate his former team. He is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA since coming to the Yankees. Toronto's Ryan Borucki should prove to be no match for Happ. The Blue Jays left-hander has been roughed for 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts and walked 7 batters while striking out just 3 in those two outings! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early afternoon action Sunday |
08-13-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Rangers +1.5 | | 3-5 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Rangers Run Line (+1.5 runs) vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 8:10 PM ET
The Diamondbacks are off of a big road win yesterday but their .231 batting average away from home this season ranks them 14th out of the 15 National League teams. The Rangers are off of an ugly road loss in the Bronx yesterday but are now back home where their .446 slugging percentage ranks them 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. Texas had won 10 of their last 14 games before suffering back to back losses to wrap up their series with the Yankees. Bartolo Colon got the milestone win he had been waiting for (most wins ever by a Latin American born pitcher) in his most recent start. Though his recent start versus the Diamondbacks was a tough one, the majority of the runs came with two outs and he pitched better in that start at Arizona than what the stats show. Buoyed by the big win he got in his most recent home start, Colon comes up with another strong effort tonight against a lineup that is known for not traveling well. The Diamondbacks starter tonight will be Zack Greinke. Though he excels at home, Greinke's road ERA is more than a full run higher on the road compared to in Arizona this season and last season was similar as he went just 4-6 on the road. This season when he has pitched on the road in inter-league action he has allowed 18 baserunners in 12 and 1 / 3 innings. Those starts were at Oakland and in Anaheim. That said, Arlington is a much tougher place to pitch. Greinke allowed 4 earned runs the last time he pitched at Texas and the Rangers come into this homestand having averaged scoring 8.9 runs per game in the 7 games on their last homestand! We expect the Texas offense to continue their hot home hitting while the Dbacks bats fizzle on the road in this one. We're grabbing the run line for added value here as we can get +1.5 runs at little to no juice! Prior to yesterday's big Diamondbacks win, they had a record of 4-8 (at -1.5 runs) in their prior dozen games. Bet the Texas Rangers on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Monday |
08-12-18 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 |
Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET
The Rockies Chad Bettis recently returned from the disabled list and he had an awful outing in his first start since coming back. That home outing versus the Pirates continued his long-term struggles at home this season. Bettis has not registered a victory in any of his 8 starts this season at Coors Field and the right-hander has compiled a 9.73 ERA in those outings. The Dodgers got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work when they faced him at Colorado earlier this season. As for Los Angeles starter Rich Hill, the southpaw has allowed only 5 earned runs on just 13 hits while striking out 18 in the 16 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts versus the Rockies. Also, Hill enters this start in top current form as he has a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts and has surrendered only 12 hits in the 18 and 1 / 3 innings over those three outings. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts and all 4 victories came by at least two runs. While LA is a bit pricey on the money line in this game we can get value by backing Los Angeles on the run line in this one as they are in a "pick'em" price range at -1.5 runs. Considering 7 of the 9 losses the Rockies have with Bettis on the mound this season have come by 2 or more runs, we see strong odds that this one turns into a road rout decided by a multiple run margin. The Dodgers are 19-8 the last 27 times they entered a game off of a loss and also 5-2 the last 7 times they've entered a game off of consecutive losses. LA is also 13-6 in Sunday games this season while the Rockies are 6-12 on Sundays this year Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Sunday |
08-11-18 |
Phillies -1.5 v. Padres | | 5-1 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET
The Phillies have not been scoring well recently and that culminated in a shutout loss last night. The key to the value with tonight's pick is that Philadelphia has high probability of a bounce back at the plate considering they are facing Walter Lockett while, at the same time, the Phillies should get a dominating effort from their own starter. Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and the Phillies are 15-4 in his last 19 starts. Nola has a 2.47 ERA on the season and the Padres are off of back to back wins but they've haven't managed to win 3 straight games in over two months! San Diego is 0-5 the last 5 times they've entered a game off of back to back wins. Also, 57 of the Padres 71 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. They send Lockett to the mound and the past 3 seasons just look at the opponents batting average at the AAA level: .319, .289, .280. The right-hander has struggled to retire minor league hitters so it is no big surprise that in his first three appearances at the MLB level (including two starts), Lockett is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA and opponents are hitting .354 against him! The Phillies are off of back to back losses but only twice in the past two months have they had a losing streak of 3 or more games. Philadelphia is 11-6 in Saturday games this season.. The Phillies are also 31-19 this season when off of a loss. The Padres are 15-30 this season when off of a win and this one has the proper ingredients for a road rout blowout. Bet the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Saturday |
08-09-18 |
Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-7 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
Rangers starter Ariel Jurado has been a pleasant surprise in terms of his overall numbers but the fact is that he has only made 3 starts and only 1 was a bit shocking in terms of quality. Jurado recently held the defending world champion Astros to 1 run in 6 innings. However, in his other two starts he faced two bad teams (Orioles and White Sox) but allowed 6 earned runs on 12 hits and 4 walks in a total of only 9 and 2 / 3 frames. In other words, he was far from dominant and he hasn't recorded many strikeouts either. Additionally, Jurado had never pitched above the AA level of the minors before being called up by the Rangers! This is a guy that has been hit at a .270 level in the minors, never even pitched at AAA, struggled against the O's and Pale Hose, and now is pitching at Yankee Stadium tonight. We don't expect this to go well at all for Jurado. His Rangers teammates tend to hit well at home but they're a different team on the road and tonight they're facing a tough assignment too. The Yankees are starting J.A. Happ and the southpaw has a 1.23 ERA in his last 3 starts (1 being his Yankees debut) and the lefty also has a 1.89 ERA in going a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Happ registered 9 strikeouts in 7 innings when he faced them in April and Texas is known for striking out far too much especially when on the road. Away from home, the Rangers batting average (.230) and strikeouts per game (10) ranks them near dead last in the majors in each category. Texas is 25-43 against teams with a winning record this season while the Yankees are 34-21 against teams with a losing record this season. 49 of the Rangers 65 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 53 of the Yankees 71 wins this season have been by decided by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Great value here with the run line available at a very low price. Lay it! Bet the New York Yankees on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday |
08-06-18 |
Cubs -1.5 v. Royals | | 3-1 |
Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Kansas City Royals, Monday at 8:15 PM ET
The Royals lost yesterday at Minnesota and that dropped them to 3-8 in their last 11 games. Although Kansas City is back home for this inter-league series with the Cubs, that is not necessarily a positive for the downtrodden Royals. KC ranks dead-last in the majors with their home record of 15-37 easily putting them in the cellar in that department. Every other team in the American League and every team in the National League has at least 20 home wins this season. The Cubs newly acquired Cole Hamels rolled in his first start for Chicago and should enjoy great success again here. Hamels has allowed 0 earned runs on just 8 hits in the 14 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals counter with a struggling Jake Junis. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 11 runs (7 earned) in the 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. Junis won his most recent start despite not being very effective and that was his first win since May 18th! He is 3-7 with a 5.37 ERA at home this season while Hamels is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA on the road this year. The Royals are 0-10 the last 10 times they've been a home dog of +175 or more on the money line. We like the value on the run line here with the Cubs available at a very fair price (130 range) by laying the 1.5 runs. Of the Cubs 29 road wins this season, an astonishing 27 have come by 2 or more runs! Look for yet another road rout here as Chicago's lineup responds off of a loss yesterday plus the Cubs have a huge pitching edge here. Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Monday |
08-05-18 |
Tigers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 0-6 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
Since the All Star break the Tigers are dead last in the majors with a paltry .315 slugging percentage. Conversely, the A's are near the top of the majors with a .481 slugging percentage since the All Star break. Oakland is a red hot 32-10 their last 42 games. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 11-27 their last 38 games. Clearly this is a case of two teams going opposite directions right now and the A's current 5-game winning streak is the best in the majors. Also, Detroit is 2-17 this season in road games where their money line ranges from +175 to +250. Oakland is a fantastic 37-11 this season in games against teams with a losing record! The Tigers are starting Francisco Liriano and he has a 9.90 ERA in his last 3 starts. The A's are starting Trevor Cahill and the right-hander has loved pitched at home this season! Cahill has a superb 1.13 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his home starts this season. While Cahill can be expected to dominate at home, note that Liriano went 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road in 2016 and 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road in 2017. Couple this with his recent struggles and you can see why a home blowout is expected here. While the money line is big in this game, the run line allows you to lay a price of only about -120 and certainly we look for the A's win to come by a margin of 2 or more runs today. Bet Oakland on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday |
07-24-18 |
Giants +1.5 v. Mariners | | 4-3 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
NOTE: Pitching change for Mariners as they are now going with Roenis Elias. We are still sticking with this play as we like the 90% edge factor with the Giants Suarez and we like the fact that the Mariners Elias is making his first MLB start since 2016. He has not been a regular MLB starter since 2015. Elias enters this start having gone only 2-4 with a 4.94 ERA in his 7 games (6 starts) with Tacoma at the AAA level of the minors. ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Seattle Mariners, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET
Andrew Suarez gets the start for the Giants here and he allowed 4 earned runs despite allowing only 4 hits in his most recent start. The fact is that the San Francisco southpaw has certainly been on top of his game for many weeks now. In fact, that was the first time in his last 7 starts that he allowed more than 2 earned runs in an outing. Heading into that start Suarez had compiled a 2.00 ERA in his 6 priors starts. Also, that loss (by a 4-run margin) in his start broke a 9-game Suarez start streak in which the Giants either won the game or lost by just a single run. This is certainly a factor in why we like the run line so much in this match-up. It is a very fair price to lay (about -130) to have the Giants at +1.5 runs in this match-up and had you played San Francisco at +1.5 runs in each of the 9 starts Suarez made prior to the loss versus Oakland, you would have compiled a perfect 9-0 record! The Mariners will struggle to win this game let alone to get any type of margin. Suarez has given up only 51 hits in the 57 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 10 starts. Seattle has a solid southpaw on the mound too but James Paxton is returning from the disabled list after having lower back issues. Since June 15th, Paxton has made 6 starts and certainly 2 of those were very impressive. However, in the other 4 outings the Mariners lefty compiled a 9.60 ERA. In his last 10 starts only one was an M's win by more than a single run. Remember only 1 of the last 10 Suarez starts has resulted in a Giants loss by more than a single run. That is why this is a double 90% edge factor favoring a strong play on the road dog. Bet San Francisco on the run line (+1.5 runs) in late night action Tuesday |
07-22-18 |
Padres v. Phillies -1.5 | | 0-5 |
Win | 120 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs San Diego Padres, Sunday at 6:05 PM ET - Game TWO of double header
The Padres, entering Sunday's double-header, have lost 6 straight games. 26 of San Diego's last 30 losses have been defeats by at least a margin of 2 runs. The Phillies are a pricey favorite on the money line in Game 2 of the double-header Sunday but are available at plus money on the run line. We'll invest with Philadelphia and lay the -1.5 runs as the Phillies are not only the much better team in this match-up, they also have a huge pitching edge. Vincent Velasquez gets the call for the Phils here and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Philadelphia right-hander has a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. He rates a big edge over Luis Perdomo of the Padres. The San Diego right-hander is 1-4 this season with a 7.55 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP. The Padres have lost 6 of his 7 starts and all 6 defeats were by 2 or more runs. The Phillies have won 13 of their last 19 games and 6 of their last 8 wins have come by 2 or more runs. The average margin of victory in those 8 games was 4 runs! This looks like another blowout here as one of Velasquez all time best starts came in his lone start versus the Padres in his career. He pitched a complete game shutout and allowed only 3 hits while striking out 16. We expect another dominating performance here. Bet Philadelphia on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action (Game TWO of double header) Sunday |
07-21-18 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 |
Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a road rout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he truly had just one "mistake pitch" in his most recent start and that resulted in a 3-run homer. However, the Dodgers still hung on for the 5-3 win in that game and, overall, it was another quality start for Kershaw. The left-hander has a 2.63 ERA in his last 7 starts. LA is 4-1 in his last 5 starts and all 5 of those games were decided by 2 or more runs. Instead of laying a sizable price here on the money line, we're grabbing the run line and laying the 1.5 runs with some shops having this available at no juice as of early game-day morning. The Brewers have struggled against Kershaw in recent seasons as he has a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts versus Milwaukee while registering 33 strikeouts in 23 and 1 / 3 innings! The Brewers will have Chase Anderson on the mound for this one. Although the right-hander has a low ERA in recent starts, he has been fortunate as he has allowed 14 hits (including 2 homers) in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. On the season Anderson has a 4.83 ERA in starts at Miller Park. Also, the Dodgers have hit him very hard in recent meetings. Anderson has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in the 11 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Los Angeles. His WHIP in those starts is 2.38 and when a pitcher is giving up nearly 2.5 baserunners per inning it does not take long to get into big trouble! LA has won 11 of their last 15 games and 40 of the Dodgers 54 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost 7 straight games! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Saturday. |
07-15-18 |
Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
Massive pitching edge for the Dodgers here and this one is destined to turn into a home blowout. Clayton Kershaw gets the call for the Dodgers and he has a 1.44 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season and the southpaw went 12-3 with a 1.95 ERA in his day game starts the past 3 seasons combined! Not only does he love pitching in afternoon action, Kershaw has thrived at home as he went 28-6 with a 1.81 ERA in starts at Dodger Stadium the past 3 seasons and he has a strong 2.85 ERA in limited action at home this season. The Angels have struggled against him in recent seasons and have not seen him yet this season which is a big edge for the Dodgers here considering their lineup just faced the Angels Deck McGuire in his most recent start on the 7th of this month. Note that Kershaw has a 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Angels. As for McGuire, though he had a successful 3-inning stint versus the Dodgers a week ago, he is likely to struggle against them here as they get a quick 2nd look at him plus now McGuire is away from home. McGuire has pitched in 6 road games in his career (3 of those were starts) and he has a 6.64 ERA away from home in his career! Opponents are hitting .302 against him in road games this season. The Angels got the win over the Dodgers yesterday but had previously lost 14 of their last 18 road games! Also, the Angels are just 9-17 this season against left-handed starters and also are only 14-25 this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Dodgers are 10-5 this season in Sunday games and were 19-9 their last 28 home games prior to getting upset yesterday. Thanks to a huge pitching edge with Kershaw over McGuire, the Dodgers bounce right back in a big way today on Sunday! 38 of the Dodgers 52 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. 37 of the Angels 47 losses this season have come by a margin of 2 or more runs! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line (-1.5 runs) in late afternoon action Sunday. |
07-12-18 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | | 4-6 |
Win | 115 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
Though both of these starters have stumbled recently, there is reason to believe that J.A. Happ's struggles continue while David Price gets back on track. For starters, Price's struggles have been on the road in his last two outings. In terms of his home starts, the Boston left-hander has made 4 starts at Fenway Park in the months of May and June and he held the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in every single start. Also, he has dominated the Blue Jays throughout his career. Price has gone 19-3 with a 2.46 ERA in his career outings versus Toronto! As for the Jays Happ, the trade deadline has been approaching and with rumors flying about the southpaw it seems to have impacted him greatly. In his last two starts the Toronto left-hander has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings! Also, he is facing a Red Sox team that has won 9 straight games and averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their last 8 wins! Those 8 wins have all come by a margin of 2 runs or more and that is why we're comfortable with the run line (-1.5 runs) on Boston in this one. Toronto has lost 6 of its last 9 games and they've been held to a scoring average of just 2.8 runs per game in those 6 losses. 16 of the Blue Jays last 21 losses have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Jays are a horrible 11-21 versus left-handed starters this season. The Red Sox are 29-12 in divisional games this season and they stay red hot here. Bet Boston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Thursday. |
07-04-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | | 5-4 |
Loss | -108 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Gerrit Cole gets the start for the Astros. He is having a huge resurgence this season with Houston and the Astros have gone 14-3 in his starts this season including 3-0 when Cole has started versus the Rangers. The right-hander has completely handcuffed Texas as he has struck out 33 while allowing just 8 hits in 20 innings of work! That makes this game likely to end up as a complete mismatch as the Rangers counter with Mike Minor. The southpaw has pitched well in his last few starts but those weren't against Houston and, the fact is, the Astros have had his number this season. Minor has a 5.74 ERA in his 3 starts against Houston this year. Only 4 of the Rangers last 18 games have been one-run games so there is good support for value with the run line in this one. The game is likely to be decided by 2 or more runs and certainly, the way Cole has pitched against Texas, it should be the Astros coming out on top. 39 of Houston's last 46 wins have come by 2 runs or more so you can see why we're expecting a road rout in this one. Bet Houston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Wednesday. |
06-26-18 |
Royals v. Brewers -1.5 | | 1-5 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Milwaukee Brewers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
The Brewers are off of back to back losses (Saturday and Sunday) and were off Monday. They're certainly ready to go here and Milwaukee had won 6 of their last 9 before the back to back losses. 25 of the Brewers last 38 wins have come by two runs or more and they offer great value here at a small price by taking them on the run line -1.5 runs. Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has a 2.30 ERA and has allowed only 6 hits while striking out 25 in the 15 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his first 3 starts this season. The Royals Jake Junis is at the other end of the spectrum and has gone 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kansas City is off of a win yesterday but they are still just 3-17 in their last 20 games. It was a rare shutout win for the Royals and they are 0-5 this season when off of a shutout victory. Their anemic offense has played a huge role in having an awful June and KC's struggles at the plate are likely to continue against a tough hurler in this one. The Brewers are 5-1 the last 6 times they've been a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250 and, as you can see per the above, there is plenty of support for expecting this win to come by 2 or more runs! Bet Milwaukee on the run line (-1.5 runs) in evening action Tuesday. |
06-16-18 |
Nationals -1.5 v. Blue Jays | | 0-2 |
Loss | -130 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 4 PM ET
The Nationals lost yesterday's game but are still 6-2 in inter-league action this season and also 29-14 in games against right-handed starters this season. Washington has staff ace Max Scherzer on the mound for this one. The right-hander is 10-2 with a 2.00 ERA on the season and all but one of the Nationals wins with him starting this season have featured a victory margin of at least 2 runs. We like the value here with Washington priced in a low price range (currently -130) on the run line in a game they should dominate. The Nationals Scherzer has struck out 34 while allowing only 11 hits in his last 3 starts! Although Toronto's Marco Estrada is off of consecutive solid starts he faced two struggling teams - Tigers and Orioles. Estrada faces a much tougher lineup here and his win versus Baltimore Sunday was his first home win of the entire season. Conversely, Scherzer is 6-1 in his 7 road starts this season! The Nationals are 27-6 in recent seasons (including 6-1 this season) when they are on the road and favored by -175 or more. 9 of the Blue Jays last 10 losses have come by a margin of 2+ runs and the run line value here is too good to pass up given the huge pitching advantage for the road team. We look for Toronto to drop to 2-9 on the season in Saturday games as this one turns into a road rout! Bet Washington on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Saturday. |
06-14-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. A's | | 7-3 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Oakland A's, Thursday at 3:35 ET
The Astros have won 7 straight games and they have Justin Verlander on the mound here. The Houston ace has gone 8-2 with a 1.45 ERA on the season. The 9 wins that the Astros have with Verlander on the mound this season all were games decided by more than a single run. Houston at -1.5 runs is where the value is in this game as the juice is very manageable on a favorite that would otherwise require a bettor to lay 2 to 1 odds on the money line. The Astros last 7 wins have come by an average margin of 3 runs per game. Since May 1st, Houston has won 24 games and 22 of the 24 victories have come by a margin of 2 or more runs! The A's Frankie Montas has enjoyed success so far this season. However, in the minors last season he made 9 appearances (8 starts) and had a 5.22 ERA. In the minors this season he has made 9 starts and has gone 1-5 with a 4.39 ERA. Even though he has had some surprising success at the MLB level this season he has only made 3 starts and 2 of the 3 came against a Royals team that is one of the weaker lineups in the majors! Also, Montas full MLB stats the last 3 seasons have him at a combined 4-3 with a 4.72 ERA in 33 appearances (5 starts). In other words, he is certainly no Verlander! Also, Oakland is 10-23 in divisional games this season and the A's 34 losses this season have featured 26 defeats (76%) coming by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Astros offense stays hot and they've got one of the most dominant pitchers in the game today on the mound. That equates to a road rout! Bet Houston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in afternoon action Thursday. |
06-09-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | | 4-3 |
Loss | -111 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Texas Rangers, Saturday at 7:15 ET
Each of the first two games of this series have been blowout wins for the Astros. After these two Rangers defeats by multiple run margins, on the season, 34 of 39 Texas losses have come by 2 runs or more. You can see why there is great value here with the run line if you believe Charlie Morton will out-pitch Mike Minor (more on that below) as any Houston win is quite likely to come by a multiple run margin. The Rangers lead the majors in a category no one wants to lead in - most strikeouts at the plate. Texas is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to making contact against strikeout pitchers and the Astros have a strikeout specialist on the mound in this one. Morton's great breaking stuff keeps hitters off balance and he has struck out 26 in 13 innings (2 per inning!) in a pair of dominating starts versus the Rangers this season. Texas' Minor has faced the Astros twice this season and neither start was a quality outing. In fact, the southpaw allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start versus Houston. Morton is off of his first loss of the season and we look for him to be very sharp here as he bounces back off of a tough start versus Boston. The Astros have won 4 straight versus the Rangers and all 4 wins came by 3 or more runs. Houston is 9-2 this season as a road favorite of -175 or more. We'll take the value with the Astros on the run line (price of about -110 or -115) and we'll lay the 1.5 runs. The Astros are 15-6 this season versus teams with a losing record. As noted above, when the Rangers lose they lose big and the huge edge of Morton over Minor makes this a prime spot for a road rout! The Astros are hitting .276 versus left-handed pitching this season which is #2 in the majors (behind the Tigers at .277 versus lefties). Look for them to pound Minor again today and Morton bounces back from first loss of the season by taking it to a lineup he has dominated this season. Bet Houston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Saturday. |
06-08-18 |
White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5 | | 1-0 |
Loss | -140 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:10 ET
There is significant line value with the run line here. The Red Sox are available as low as -140 on the run line. Yes, we need Boston to win the game by 2 runs or more but we lay a moderate price instead of laying a -300 price which, of course, we would never do! Too much risk versus reward with that type of wager but the run line is a very attractive proposition here given the expected domination by the Red Sox in this one. Boston's Chris Sale enters this start off of rare back to back sub-par outings where he was simply done in by a few big hits. In other words, Sale didn't pitch that poorly and it was rare for him to give up the runs that he did. Look for a big bounce back here as the lefty will take advantage of facing a White Sox team that is hitting only .223 versus southpaws this season. Only Toronto (.220), out of all the AL teams, has a lower batting average versus left-handers. Before his past two starts Sale had a 2.17 ERA on the season. Even after these two starts his cumulative batting average allowed is only .197 on the season. He and his teammates should bounce right back today after Boston had a rare poor day at the plate in yesterday's 7-2 loss. This Red Sox team is hitting .289 on the season (with a .511 slugging percentage) in their home games this season and that has them #1 in the majors in both categories. They'll take advantage of facing a road-adverse Dylan Covey. The White Sox right-hander went 0-6 with a 9.58 ERA in 10 games (8 starts) last season and is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA in his two road starts this season. Covey, in his 2nd season in the majors has never won a road game. He and his Chicago teammates are very likely to struggle here as, with their 7-2 loss at Minnesota, the White Sox dropped to 20-40 on the season (only the Orioles have a worse record) and Chicago's last 6 losses have all come by 2 or more runs. The Red Sox have 43 wins on the season, tops in the majors, and the Red Sox have produced 16 wins by a multiple run margin out of their last 17 victories! Lay it! Bet Boston on the run line (-1.5 runs) in early evening action Friday. |
06-06-18 |
Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-7 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:10 ET
With yesterday's win the Mariners have now won 5 straight games and 14 of their last 17. While Seattle has been red hot, Houston has actually been ice cold. The Astros have lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 10. Of course as the defending champs Houston gets plenty of respect from the odds makers and the betting markets. That is why the Astros are nearly a -200 favorite on the money line in this one. Though we expect the Mariners to get the upset win here as a big dog, we feel the best value is with the run line (at a nearly pick'em price) as that puts Seattle money in your pocket tonight even if they lose a pitchers duel. The Mariners are starting Wade LeBlanc and this is his 2nd stint with Seattle as he was also with them in 2016. He has enjoyed great success as a Mariner as Seattle has gone 12-2 in his 14 starts! This season LeBlanc has a 1.72 ERA in his 6 starts including a 0.82 ERA in his road starts on the year. The Astros are starting Lance McCullers and he has some solid numbers on the season but has allowed 9 earned runs in 10 and 1 / 3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, this will be the 2nd time this season that the Mariners will be facing him and that is a major key here. The other two times this season that McCullers has made a 2nd start versus a team he has struggled badly. The combined numbers are 9 earned runs on 11 hits and 6 walks in just 9 and 1 / 3 innings. So that is 17 baserunners in about 9 innings of work while compiling an 8.68 ERA. With the way the Mariners are rolling (and the Astros certainly are not) there is fantastic line value here given the pitching match-up. Bet Seattle on the run line (+1.5 runs) in evening action Wednesday. |
05-22-18 |
Red Sox -1.5 v. Rays | | 4-2 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 7:10 ET
The Rays Jacob Faria has a superb ERA at home this season. However, his worst start at home this season was when he faced the Red Sox and was fortunate to only give up 1 earned run as he walked 3 and allowed 4 hits in a start that lasted only 4 innings. The next time he faced Boston it was at Fenway Park and Faria got crushed in a start in which he didn't even last 2 innings! With that said, starting against the potent Red Sox for a third time doesn't exactly bode well for Faria. The Rays right-hander won't be able to match the solid start that Chris Sale is likely to produce here. The Boston southpaw is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the season. Sale dominate the Rays when he faced them earlier this season and that start was at Tropicana.. Each of the last 6 wins for the Red Sox have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Each of the last 5 losses for the Rays have come by a margin of at least 2 runs. The Rays are 2-5 when playing after an off day this season and also 7-16 when off of a loss. Boston is 27-10 this season versus right-handed starters. Tremendous line value here with the manageable price on the Red Sox at -1.5 runs in what should be an absolute road rout. Bet Boston on the run line in early evening action Tuesday. |
05-20-18 |
Tigers +1.5 v. Mariners | | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Detroit Tigers Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 ET
Battle of southpaws here and great line value with the road dog available at a very fair price at the +1.5 runs on the run line. Tigers Francisco Liriano is off of rare back to back sub-par starts but previously was 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA in his first 6 starts of the season. His most recent start was the 1st time he has allowed more than 3 earned runs and this was his 8th start of the season. Though Wade LeBlanc has pitched well early this season for the Mariners, he has been hit at a .381 clip in day games and was also hit at a .329 clip in afternoon games last season. Though both teams have hit lefties well on the season, Seattle has lost 3 of their last 4 versus southpaw starters and the 1 win came by just a single run. Detroit had won 4 straight against lefties prior to yesterday's loss against James Paxton and LeBlanc is no Paxton. The Tigers (at +1.5 runs) have a 9-3 record last 12 games while the Mariners (at -1.5 runs) have a 1-6 record last 7 games. Tremendous value here with the +1.5 runs. Bet Detroit on the run line in late afternoon action Sunday. |
04-17-18 |
Indians -1.5 v. Twins | | 6-1 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Cleveland Indians Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Minnesota Twins, Tuesday at 7:10 ET
Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico is the location of this game. This is simply an awful situation for the Twins hitters to be in. With all the postponements effecting their early season schedule, Minnesota has not played a game since the 12th. This is similar to an All-Star break situation only it is worse because the hitters have only been going for 2 weeks prior to this 4 day layoff. The lack of game at-bats since Thursday is going to make it difficult enough plus the Twins have to try and hit Corey Kluber. The right-hander arguably has the nastiest stuff of any major league pitcher. Also, in the stifling humidity of Puerto Rico, his pitches will have even more bite on them than usual. We expect the Twins to struggle to get good wood on his offerings tonight. Of course the odds makers knows this too and that is why the Indians opened as a -200 favorite on the money line in this one. Where we get the value though is the run line as we can lay a small price to have Cleveland at -1.5 runs in this one. The Indians are 6-1 in divisional games this season and also 4-1 when off of a loss. They have had some extra time off too but at least were in action on Friday whereas the Twins haven't played since Thursday. Also, Jake Odorizzi is not near the starter that Kluber is. Odorizzi has walked 8 in 10 and 1/3 innings his last two starts. Odorizzi got rocked for 4 earned runs in 6 innings when he faced the Indians last season. Kluber enters this start with 34 strikeouts in his last 24 innings versus the Twins and he has held them scoreless in his last 14 innings. As for his current form entering this start, Kluber has 19 strikeouts against just 5 hits in his last 15 innings on the mound! The Indians had won 5 straight before Friday's loss and 4 of the 5 wins came by 2 or more runs. 59 of Minnesota's 77 losses last year came by 2 or more runs and we expect another multi-run defeat here against the Indians ace. The Twins have averaged just 7.5 hits per game in their last 4 games. The Indians have averaged 6 runs and 12.3 hits per game in their last 3 games as they're getting their sticks going. Bet Cleveland on the run line in early evening action Tuesday. |
04-05-18 |
Rays v. Red Sox -1.5 | | 2-3 |
Loss | -123 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 2:05 ET
The Rays are going with Yonny Chirinos to make his first MLB start here. His only other MLB appearance was against David Price and the Red Sox when they met last week in Tampa Bay. The issue now is that a young hurler is giving MLB hitters a quick second look at him and the wind will be blowing out to right at a good clip in this one. That is going to certainly help the left-handed lumber that the Red Sox will have in the lineup to face the righty Chirinos. As for the Rays lineup, they will have very few lefties in the lineup as they're facing the southpaw Price. The left-hander has gone 17-5 with a 3.12 ERA in his career starts at Fenway Park. There is no one in the Rays lineup that has had any substantive success against Price in their career. That said, this looks like a very bad match-up for Tampa and note that Price is very tough on left-handed batters. It is rare for them to take him out of the park. That said the wind blowing out to right at a strong clip today is a much bigger advantage for the Red Sox than it is for the Rays. Of course the fact that this is a mismatch all the way around is why Boston is a big favorite on the money line. With that said, we are taking advantage of the run line which is priced in the -125 range. The Rays have lost 5 straight and both road losses have been by 5 runs or more. The Red Sox have won 5 straight and each of their last two wins have been by multiple run margins. Last season 58 of the Rays 82 losses came by 2+ runs and 71 of the Red Sox 93 wins came by 2+ runs. That said, even though the games played in Tampa between these teams were tight last week, odds are that the win today comes by a blowout margin. Look for the Red Sox to win their home opener in an absolute rout! Bet the Boston Red Sox on the run line in early day game action Thursday. |
03-31-18 |
Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | | 9-3 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Saturday at 4 PM ET
The Rangers won 5-1 yesterday as Doug Fister pitched very well and got a revenge win over his former team. On Saturday, Texas will be wishing it was Fister on the hill again. Matt Moore takes the mound for the first time for Texas and the southpaw acquisition from the Giants is coming off of a dreadful spring training! Now he must face the World Champs and, though he had success against them in the past, that was when he was pitching much better and it also was when Houston wasn't nearly the team they are now. Moore is coming off of a 6-15 campaign where he allowed a league-high 107 earned runs. The way the left-hander threw this spring, there is no sign of a turnaround for him anytime soon. As for the Astros, Lance McCullers is set to dominate. His career numbers against Texas don't look that great but a closer look shows he has produced 2 quality starts in his last 3 outings versus the Rangers. Also, he has struck out 25 in the 16 and 2 / 3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Texas. McCullers has a solid repertoire of pitches in his arsenal and looked fantastic in spring training. He is ready to go here as the World Champs bounce back from a 5-1 loss yesterday. Houston went 33-16 in day games last season and already won the only day game so far in this series (4-1 on Thursday). 60 of the Rangers 84 losses last season came by at least 2 runs and 82 of the Astros 101 wins came by at least 2 runs last season. Houston is favored big with good reason here and we're getting value by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line at a very manageable price. Bet the Houston Astros on the run line in day game action Saturday. |
03-29-18 |
Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | | 1-0 |
Loss | -137 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) over San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 7 PM ET
The Dodgers are the biggest favorite on the board on Opening Day but that huge money line is justified. This is a massive mismatch and we will step in and take advantage by utilizing the run line. The Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) has been bouncing between the -130 and -145 price range which is very reasonable considering that LA is the much stronger team, has the much stronger pitching, and also has the home field edge. Not only did the Giants Ty Blach go 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA on the road last season, he also wrapped up the season on an overall 0-5 run and 7.90 ERA in his last 5 starts. He'll be no match for Clayton Kershaw as the Dodgers ace left-hander has been looking forward to this opportunity ever since a very rare poor start against the Astros in the World Series marked his final appearance of 2017. While this is new territory for Blach, Kershaw will be making his 8th consecutive opening day start. Also, the LA southpaw is 22-9 with a 1.58 ERA and dominating 0.82 WHIP in his 40 career starts versus San Francisco. The Giants are 4-10 as a road dog of +175 to +250 the past two seasons while the Dodgers are 22-3 as a home favorite of -250 to -330 the past two seasons. The key here being we need that win (high probability) to come by 2 runs or more. On that note, the Dodgers 104 wins last season featured only 25 by a single run. The Giants 98 losses last season featured only 24 by a single run. Though neither team hit all that well last season, the run production of the Dodgers was far superior to that of the Giants. That factor along with the home field edge here should lead to a blowout for LA in this one. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line in early evening action Thursday. |
11-01-17 |
Astros v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 |
Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers (-1.5 runs) on the run line over Houston, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET
We feel the mound advantage is absolutely with LA tonight. Not only did righty Yu Darvish come into the World Series having allowed only 5 earned runs TOTAL in his last 5 starts, the Dodgers also have Clayton Kershaw in the bullpen for this one and Houston’s line up struggles vs southpaws. As impressive as their overall record is, the Astros have a LOSING RECORD vs left handed starters at 26 wins and 28 losses on the year after losing again last night. Now this will officially go in the books as a righty start as it is Yu Darvish on the mound but just keep in mind that the southpaw Kershaw is there if needed. We do expect a much better effort from Darvish after he struggled in the start at Houston. Also, LA had won 4 of Darvish’s last 5 starts before his poor outing at Houston. Each of his last 6 starts have resulted in games decided by 2 runs or more and we like the value of having the Dodgers at significant plus money on the run line in this one! We'll lay the 1.5 runs as the Astros are starting Lance McCullers and Houston had lost 8 of his last 9 starts before they won with him over Darvish earlier in this series. Each of his last 12 starts have resulted in games decided by 2 runs or more. We expect the Dodgers to have some opportunities here (in their second look at him in this series) and we also expect them to take advantage of them. As we've noted previously, Houston’s weakest part of their team this year is their bullpen so LA should have an advantage there again (if needed) in Game 7. In this situation (at home and able to get solid plus money on the run line) there is again value with LA! Look for the Dodgers WIN BIG Wednesday night! Lay the 1.5 runs! |
10-24-17 |
Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | | 1-3 |
Loss | -130 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Game 1 World Series, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Astros are offering a lot of line value here at +1.5 runs. Even though the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw is a fantastic left-hander, certainly Dallas Keuchel is every bit just as much of an ace southpaw for the Astros! Also, Kershaw has been plagued by the long ball in this post-season with 6 homers allowed in his 3 starts including 5 in his two outings at Dodger Stadium. Houston certainly has a powerful lineup and this could pose a threat for Kershaw on a hot evening in Los Angeles (high temperatures topping out near 100 degrees this afternoon in LA). The Astros are 10-3 in Keuchel's road starts this season and we like the added value of the +1.5 runs being available for a very fair price. 10 of Kershaw's last 26 starts have been 1-run games including 7 of the last 19 wins Kershaw has had. The Astros are 42-18 (+20.0 net units) in inter-league games the past 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 36-24 (+3.5 net units) in inter-league action the past 3 seasons. Kershaw certainly commands respect but so too does Keuchel and the added bonus of the +1.5 runs with all the supporting stats above make this situation very worthy of investment. If Houston does fall short here we expect it to be a one run defeat but they truly do have a great shot at the upset in Game 1 with Keuchel dealing! Bet the Houston Astros on the run line in evening action Tuesday. |
10-13-17 |
Yankees v. Astros -1.5 | | 1-2 |
Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Houston Astros Run Line (-1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Friday at 8:05 PM ET
Hats off to the Yankees for their huge rally from being down 2 games to none against the Indians. While that certainly gives New York momentum heading into this series, the issue in Game 1 is a huge pitching mismatch. Masahiro Tanaka is off of back to back fantastic outings but he is a very different pitcher when he's away from the Bronx. This season, in starts away from Yankee Stadium, Tanaka has a 6.48 ERA! We like the run line here because we can get plus money (by laying the 1.5 runs) and we have Dallas Keuchel on our side. The Astros ace left-hander has been dominant with a 2.26 ERA and .187 BAA in home starts this season. Keuchel now has a 25-8 combined record in home starts the past 3 seasons! The Yankees 14 losses with Tanaka on the mound have seen 11 of the 14 defeats come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Keuchel's 17 team victories have seen 14 of the 17 wins come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Home/road dichotomy of these two pitchers is huge and we love the added value of the run line here as 26 of the Astros last 32 wins have been victories by 2 runs or more. 18 of the Yankees last 25 losses have been by 2 or more runs. As you can see, odds are in favor of a blowout in the Lone Star State tonight. Bet the Houston Astros on the run line in evening action Friday. |
10-11-17 |
Yankees +1.5 v. Indians | | 5-2 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Yankees Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Yankees certainly have all the momentum in this series as they've rallied to take two straight games and force this "winner takes all" Game 5 on Wednesday. They also, arguably, have ended up with the pitching edge here and yet the Indians are a very pricey favorite. This has resulted in the Yankees being available at a very small price on the run line at +1.5 runs and that equates to solid line value on a cool evening in Cleveland when runs could be at a premium. The Indians Corey Kluber has given up 13 hits in the 7 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. That included Kluber's ugly outing versus the Yankees in this series when he gave up 6 earned runs in 2 and 2 / 3 innings of work. CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees here and while he hasn't been unhittable he certainly has been pitching very well of late and has had a complete resurgence this season. The Yanks southpaw is 14-5 on the season and has particularly excelled on the road where he has a 3.19 ERA on the year! The Yankees have won 4 of his last 5 starts and the lone loss came by just a single run. Sabathia has given up a total of only 19 hits in 23 innings over his last 4 starts. Not only are the Yankees 19-9 in Sabathia's starts this season but 5 of the losses came by just a single run. That means that the Yanks, at +1.5 runs, are 24-4 in Sabathia's starts this year! We like the big value of having the Yankees at +1.5 runs in this one considering the recent trending of both Sabathia and Kluber. Bet the New York Yankees on the run line in evening action Wednesday. |
10-04-17 |
Rockies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | | 8-11 |
Loss | -140 | 49 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Colorado Rockies Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
As well as Zack Greinke has pitched for the Diamondbacks this season, that doesn't take away from the fact that Jon Gray has pitched exceptionally well for the Rockies. That said, runs could be at a premium in this game and that gives a lot of extra value to only having to lay a small price to have the Rockies at +1.5 runs in this one. Colorado's Gray has compiled a 2.88 ERA in his last 14 starts. The Rockies have gone a modest 8-6 in those outings but 3 of the losses have come by a single run. Of course that means the Rockies are 11-3 at +1.5 runs in Gray's last 14 starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 13 of his last 19 starts. Overall Colorado is 13-7 in his 20 starts on the year. As strong as Greinke was this season he did end the season allowing 10 earned runs in 8 innings over his last two starts. Also, he is only 3-3 in post-season outings in his career. We like the big value of having the Rockies at +1.5 runs in this one considering the recent trending of both Gray and Greinke. Bet Colorado on the run line in evening action Wednesday. |
09-30-17 |
Brewers +1.5 v. Cardinals | | 6-7 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Milwaukee Brewers Run Line (+1.5 runs) over St Louis Cardinals, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET
The Brewers won yesterday to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Saturday if Milwaukee does lose we would expect it to be a tight defeat. The Cardinals are only 5-9 in their last 14 games and 3 of the 5 wins have come by just a single run. That means that, at -1.5 runs, the Cardinals are on a 2-12 run on the run line. That makes the Brewers absolutely a play on at this moderate price range (around -145) to get them at +1.5 runs in a must win situation. Though it will be another "bullpen game" for Milwaukee today the relievers have been getting the job done and Junior Guerra should get things off to a solid start here. Guerra has given up just 22 hits in his last 26 and 1 / 3 innings. The Cardinals will have Luke Weaver toeing the rubber here and he has given up 10 earned runs in 8 innings over his past 2 starts. Also, Weaver has started against the Brewers twice since early August and they got to him for 8 hits in 5 innings in the most recent start. With Weaver now struggling a bit, the 3rd time is likely to be the charm for Milwaukee as they stay alive in the playoff race. We grab the extra "insurance" though on the run line in case the Cardinals do get the tight win here. Bet the Brewers +1.5 runs on the run line in afternoon action Saturday. |
09-25-17 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-4 |
Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Red Sox are on a 14-3 run and they should remain red hot here. The push isn't over for Boston yet as they're still looking to lock down the AL East. Once they do that you may see a let down from the Red Sox but for now Boston certainly remains in "play on" mode. Couple that with the fact that the Red Sox have a huge pitching edge here and you have the right set up for a blowout. While yesterday's Boston win came by just a single run, 10 of their 12 prior victories came by margin of at least 2 runs. The Blue Jays have lost 12 of their last 18 road games and lefty Brett Anderson got crushed by the Royals in his most recent start. The last 2 seasons Anderson has pitched in 15 games (14 starts) at the MLB level and he has compiled an 8.10 ERA while getting rocked for 89 hits in 56 and 2 / 3 innings. As you can see from those numbers, he is highly unlikely to enjoy success at Fenway Park tonight. The Red Sox will have Drew Pomeranz toeing the rubber in this one. The Boston southpaw is 13-2 with a 2.61 ERA in his last 22 starts! Pomeranz is 9-2 on the season in his home starts. We see every reason to expect more home domination tonight! By grabbing the Red Sox on the run line we get a price range in a pick 'em instead of laying 2 to 1 odds on the money line. In other words, big value here! Bet the Boston Red Sox on the run line in early evening action Monday. |
09-21-17 |
White Sox +1.5 v. Astros | | 3-1 |
Win | 135 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Chicago White Sox Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Houston Astros, Thursday at 8:10 PM ET
This is a nice "plus plus" situation as the White Sox are available at nice payback (+135) on the run line at +1.5 runs. The reason the Astros are such a big favorite, besides being a top team and on a 6-game winning streak, is the fact that Dallas Keuchel is on the mound. However, the Houston southpaw is only 4-4 with a 4.66 ERA in the 10 starts he has made since returning from the disabled list. Also, the left-hander got rocked by the White Sox batters in his only start versus the Pale Hose this season. Chicago will have Carson Fulmer toeing the rubber in this one and he could surprise some folks here. Since struggling in his first ever MLB appearance (in August), Fulmer has had a fantastic September (1.62 ERA) in his 4 appearances including back to back quality starts. This will be Houston's first ever look at Fulmer so that is also an edge for the rookie right-hander. Opponents are hitting just .155 against him this month. The White Sox are 3-2 against the Astros this season and the two losses came by a combined total of only 3 runs. Therein lies the value with the big dog on the run line in this one as we expect them to make it 5-1 (at +1.5 runs) against Houston on the season. Bet the White Sox on the run line in evening action Thursday. |
09-20-17 |
Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | | 9-0 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Baltimore Orioles, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET
Boston is expected to have Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez back in the lineup tonight. The Red Sox have been hot and are trying to inch closer to locking up the AL East. The Orioles have been cold and, although not mathematically eliminated from the wild card race, they have fallen out of contention. Boston has won 9 of 12. Baltimore has lost 11 of 13. The Red Sox have Chris Sale on the mound and the Orioles will have Wade Miley toeing the rubber for this one. Of course that is a complete mound mismatch and that is why we're comfortable laying the -1.5 runs to get a very good price on Boston in this one. The Red Sox are 21-9 in Sale's 30 starts this season and the dominating southpaw has compiled a 2.86 ERA in these outings. The Orioles are winless in Miley's last 3 starts and he has surrendered 10 earned runs in just 6 innings over his last two starts! The O's have lost 15 games with Miley on the mound this season and 13 of the 15 defeats were by a margin of at least 2 runs. 19 of Boston's 21 wins with Sale on the mound have been by a margin of 2 or more runs! Lay it! Bet the Boston Red Sox on the run line in early evening action Wednesday. |
09-15-17 |
Royals v. Indians -1.5 | | 4-3 |
Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Cleveland Indians Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 7:10 PM ET
It took a little late innings magic last night but the fact is that the Indians made it 22 in a row with another win last night. As impressive as the winning streak is, it is also impressive how many of the wins have come quite comfortably. With that said, we're certainly comfortable laying the 1.5 runs here with the run line and, in doing so, we avoid even having to lay any juice on a team that has won 22 games in a row! The Tribe have won 18 of the 22 games by 2 runs or more! The Indians have Trevor Bauer on the hill in this one and he is 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Royals will have Jason Vargas toeing the rubber in this one and he is off of a quality start. However, in the 6 prior starts for Vargas he had given up 29 earned runs in 28 and 1 / 3 innings! In other words, this looks like another mismatch and for the 19th time in their last 23 wins, we look for this W to come by 2 runs or more tonight for the Tribe. Lay it! Bet the Cleveland Indians on the run line in early evening action Friday. |
09-14-17 |
Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | | 0-7 |
Win | 115 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET
Zack Godley gets the start for Arizona and he has allowed just 3 earned runs on only 7 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts. He is a strikeout pitcher and has struck out 16 in those 13 innings. Godley has started twice versus the Rockies this season and he has held them to just 7 hits in 13 innings. The situation is a much different one for Colorado starter Chad Bettis tonight. In his last 3 starts versus the Diamondbacks, Bettis has been rocked for 14 earned runs on 30 hits in 17 and 1 / 3 innings! Also, Bettis enters this start with a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 7.20 ERA in his two road starts this season. The Rockies have lost 6 games since late August and all 6 defeats have been by at least a 4-run margin. The money line price here on Arizona is, of course, very high. However, based on Colorado's knack for big margin losses, we're taking advantage of the value by grabbing the Diamondbacks on the run line and not having to lay any price here in doing so. Arizona at -1.5 runs is available without juice. 9 of the Diamondbacks last 10 wins have come by 2 runs or more. The Rockies are 104-132 in road games the past 3 seasons while Arizona is 47-27 at home this season. Huge home/road edge here as well as a big pitching edge for the Diamondbacks in this one. Lay it! Bet the Arizona Diamondbacks on the run line in afternoon action Thursday. |
09-12-17 |
Mets v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-8 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs Run Line (-1.5 runs) over New York Mets, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
The Chicago Cubs are poised to blast the Mets here. New York's season is over and they're very banged up. Surprisingly they have put up some decent runs recently but don't be fooled. The Mets took advantage of taking on two of the "other worst" teams in baseball as they faced the Reds and Phillies recently. The fact is that the Mets have been forced to go with makeshift lineups recently due to injuries and now they face a hungry Cubs team that is fighting for the NL Central division title. The Mets are 13-40 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, New York is 0-8 as a money line road dog of +175 to +250 this season. We, of course, are not going to lay a huge money line price here but we're certainly happy to lay the 1.5 runs on the Cubs and only have to risk "juice" of -120. The Mets last 7 losses have all come by 2 runs or more and, in fact, the average margin of defeat was 5.4 runs per loss! The Cubs are 49-33 against teams with a losing record this season, 12-5 when playing after a day off, and 26-13 as a home favorite of -175 or more. 10 of the last 11 Cubs wins have come by 2 runs or more. Chicago has struggled recently but they'll take advantage of facing an injury-ravaged Mets lineup and also a New York starting pitcher, Robert Gsellman, who has an 8.53 in his 7 road starts this season. The Cubs Jose Quintana has had only one tough start in his last 6 starts. In the other 5 outings, Quintana has compiled a 2.79 ERA. The Cubs have won 4 of his last 5 starts and two of those wins came by a double digit margin! We are forecasting another blowout home win here! Bet the Chicago Cubs on the run line in evening action Tuesday. |
09-10-17 |
Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | | 8-1 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Colorado Rockies Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET
The Dodgers have not only lost 9 straight games, they are just 1-14 in their last 15 games. That one win came by a score of just 1-0 by the way. Of course what that means is that if you have played against the Dodgers with the run line at +1.5 run in each of their last 15 games, you are a perfect 15-0. A 15 game streak is certainly noteworthy and there is good value here with the Rockies laying a very short price on the run line and getting the +1.5 runs. Like many Rockies pitchers, Tyler Chatwood has poor numbers at home at hitter-friendly Coors Field but solid numbers on the road. Chatwood has a 3.66 ERA away from home this season. Also, the Colorado right-hander was 8-1 with a spectacular 1.69 ERA in his 13 road starts last season. With the way the Dodgers are going right now Chatwood should enjoy plenty of success here. Los Angeles will have Rich Hill toeing the rubber for this one and he has been alternating good starts with bad since late July. He is off of a good start so expect another tough one from the southpaw here. In the lefty's last 3 sub-par outings he has allowed a total of 12 earned runs in 13 and 2 / 3 innings of work. Bet Colorado Rockies at +1.5 runs on the run line in late afternoon action Sunday. |
09-04-17 |
Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | | 10-4 |
Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
Rick Porcello struck out 7 and walked just 2 when he faced the Blue Jays last week. J.A Happ walked 4 and struck out only 2 in that match-up with Porcello in Toronto. Each pitcher allowed only 1 earned run in that start but those types of stats this evening will have a much different result as notching strikeouts and avoiding free passes will be a key on a warm evening at Fenway Park with the wind blowing out. We like the Red Sox to bounce back here after a wrapping up a disappointing series with the Yankees last night. Boston is 10-3 versus the Blue Jays this season and, of course, that is part of the reason they're a pricey favorite on the money line here. We'll lay the 1.5 runs here to have the Red Sox at plus money on the run line. 7 of Boston's last 8 wins have come by a margin of 3 runs or more. The Blue Jays last 8 losses have come by an average margin of 3 runs per defeat. Happ has a 1.65 WHIP in his last 3 starts and had given up 10 earned runs over his 2 starts prior to the outing versus Boston last week. Our math model is forecasting a 6.5 to 3.5 score here so look for a 6-3 or 7-4 Red Sox win in this one and grab the plus money with the -1.5 runs. Bet Boston on the run line in early evening action Monday. |
08-29-17 |
White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | | 4-6 |
Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Minnesota Twins Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET
Though the White Sox have finally strung together a decent stretch, that success came at home. The Pale Hose continue to be one of the league's worst teams away from home this season. The White Sox are 22-43 on the road this season and their recent 5-3 run in home games still saw them average only 6.9 hits per game. The White Sox are not hitting very well and now they face Ervin Santana whom is 13-7 with a 3.24 ERA on the season. He was very tough on the Pale Hose in two of his last three starts against them. The White Sox won't be able to score enough here to keep with a big game from the Twins sticks. James Shields made an adjustment to his arm slot that has helped him have more success for the White Sox this month. However, he just faced the Twins in his most recent start and so they're very familiar with the change in delivery he made. The White Sox are only 2-5 in James Shields road starts this season and he has given up 10 homers in those 7 outings away from home. The last 8 losses the White Sox have had have come by an average margin of 5 runs per game and the fact that the Twins are available at a great price on the run line here at -1.5 runs has us in play. Each of Minnesota's last 13 wins have come by 2 runs or more and the average margin of victory in these 13 games was 5 runs. Lay it! Bet Minnesota on the run line at -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday. |
08-23-17 |
Padres +1.5 v. Cardinals | | 2-6 |
Loss | -130 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Diego Padres Run Line (+1.5 runs) over St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 8:15 PM ET
With last night's win San Diego is 5-3 in their last 8 games. The Cardinals have now dropped to 2-6 in their last 8 games and, taking a look at their last 9 games, the Cards at -1.5 runs are just 1-8 in their last 9 games. As you can see there is plenty of line value here with the Padres at +1.5 runs. The value is even greater when you factor in the pitching match-up. Jhoulys Chacin toes the rubber for the Padres in this one and he is off of back to back solid outings versus the powerful lineups of the Nationals and Dodgers. Luke Weaver gets the starts for St Louis here and he is 2-5 with a 4.96 ERA in his 14 MLB appearances (10 starts). Still unproven at the MLB level, Weaver should prove to be no match for Chacin tonight and the Cardinals recent struggles continue. Bet San Diego on the run line at +1.5 runs in evening action Wednesday. |
08-20-17 |
Phillies +1.5 v. Giants | | 5-2 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (+1.5 runs) over San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET
The Giants are a big favorite here because they have Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Though he is a solid pitcher, one can not ignore the fact that San Francisco is only 3-8 in his 11 starts this season. San Francisco is simply not a very good baseball team and the ability to grab the Phillies at +1.5 runs and a pick em price is absolutely a solid value spot here. The Phillies have certainly had their share of struggles this season but though they are only 4-8 in their last 12 road games, 3 of the losses came by a single run. Philadelphia is 7-5 (at +1.5 runs) in their last 12 road games and they've been a streaky team this season so, off of last night's big win, another outright win this afternoon certainly wouldn't be a total shock. After all, the Giants are only 50-75 this season and, at -1.5 runs, San Francisco is only 3-6 in their last 9 games. Again, the value of the run line here at a pick em price is too strong to ignore. Blake Lively gets the start for the Phillies and he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 of his 7 starts this season. That included an absolute gem versus the Giants earlier this season. We expect another one here. Bet Philadelphia on the run line at +1.5 runs in late afternoon action Sunday. |
08-13-17 |
Giants v. Nationals -1.5 | | 2-6 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) over San Francisco Giants, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET (Game TWO of DH)
Even though the Giants had been winning prior to yesterday's loss, those victories had been coming at home. The fact is that the Giants have continued to be an awful road team and yesterday's loss dropped them to 19-39 on the road this season. It is unlikely they'll get back on track in Game Two of Sunday's double-header as the pitching match-up favors the Nationals in a huge way. San Francisco will have Matt Moore toeing the rubber for this one and he is 1-4 with a 7.23 ERA in his 11 road starts this season. The Nats have Max Scherzer on the mound in this one and he is 12-5 this season with a 2.23 ERA and his strikeout rate is phenomenal. He fanned 11 in a complete game win at San Francisco in his only start versus the Giants this season. Washington is 7-3 in his last 10 starts and the average margin of victory has been nearly 5 runs in his victories so we have no hesitation in laying the -1.5 runs here with the Nationals to get a very low price in a game they should dominate. 9 of Moore's last 10 losses have been by two runs or more! The Nats are 47-22 in night games this season. Lay it! Bet Washington on the run line at -1.5 runs in Game 2 of the double-header in early evening action Sunday. |
08-10-17 |
Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | | 8-6 |
Loss | -101 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET
The Dodgers Yu Darvish is off of a rock solid debut with the Dodgers at New York versus the Mets Sunday night. However, he has had trouble recently with stringing together strong starts and, in fact, compiled a 7.20 ERA in his final 5 starts with the Rangers before coming to Los Angeles. The Rangers went 2-10 in his final 12 starts with them. With that said, Darvish is overpriced here on the road at Arizona. The Diamondbacks are one of the top teams in the majors for offensive production at home. Also, Anthony Banda is toeing the rubber for the Dbacks tonight and the rookie hurler has thrown very well in his first two MLB starts. The Dodgers win yesterday was their 8th in last 10 games but it was also the 4th victory that has come by just a single run during this 10 game stretch. We see solid line value here with the Diamondbacks available at almost no juice on the run line at +1.5 runs. Though Arizona is only 11-10 in their last 21 games, 6 of those losses came by just a single run. That means the Dbacks, at+1.5 runs, would be bringing a 17-4 run into tonight's contest. That is the kind of line odds that are absolutely worth investing in and we're stepping in big with that 81% streak offering huge value in this one. Bet Arizona on the run line at +1.5 runs in late night action Thursday. |
08-07-17 |
Cubs v. Giants +1.5 | | 5-3 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Francisco Giants Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 10:05 PM ET
Matt Moore has poor season numbers but he has been a different pitcher since the All-Star break. In his last 4 starts, the left-hander has given up only 22 hits in 24 and 2 / 3 innings. Moore still has given up a few big hits and this has effected his ERA but he also has struck out 22 in these 4 starts and the Giants left-hander has been displaying much better form. The Cubs will have Jake Arrieta toeing the rubber tonight at San Francisco and the Cubs have lost 7 of his last 11 road starts. Also, he is 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus the Giants. As for Moore, even though he lost the two starts he has made against the Cubs in his career he has pitched well (2.57 ERA) and both of those losses came by just a single run. That is another reason we're grabbing the +1.5 runs here as we don't expect Moore to give up much at all in this contest and if San Francisco does fall short it would be likely to be another one run loss. The Cubs got hammered yesterday and have lost 4 of their last 5. The Giants got the win yesterday and they are 6-6 their last 12 games but 3 of those 6 defeats came by just a single run! Bet San Francisco on the run line at +1.5 runs in late night action Monday. |
08-01-17 |
Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins | | 6-7 |
Loss | -125 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Marlins Chris O'Grady is coming off of a very strong outing but that has been the best start of his young career and it came against the Reds. As for the Nationals Max Scherzer, he is certainly a proven commodity and has been getting the job done in very nearly each and every outing no matter who he is facing. Scherzer is a phenomenal 12-5 with a 2.23 ERA on the season and he also leads the National League in strikeouts, opponents batting average, innings pitched, and opponent OPS (on base plus slugging percentage). Scherzer has allowed a single earned run (or held his opponent scoreless) in 9 of his last 12 starts. Simply amazing domination for the Nationals right-hander whom already has eclipsed the 200 mark for strikeouts this season. Scherzer shutout the Marlins in a brilliant effort in June and we see no reason to expect anything other than another strong outing here. That should be plenty to ensure that the Nationals win this game by 2 runs or more because Washington should hit O'Grady hard. The Nats are one of the top hitting teams in the league against southpaw pitching. O'Grady got hit at a .288 clip in the minors last season and this is just the 5th start of his young MLB career. Tough test here with a quality Washington lineup. The Nationals are a long-term 32-7 as a road favorite of -175 or more but we're going to reduce the price we have to lay here by grabbing the Nats on the run line at -1.5 runs. Yesterday's Marlins loss came by just a single run but 14 of Miami's 17 prior defeats came by 2 runs or more. Lay it! Bet Washington on the run line at -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday. |
07-28-17 |
Angels +1.5 v. Blue Jays | | 7-2 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Angels Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The Angels are 6-1 in Parker Bridwell's 7 starts this season. The Blue Jays are off of a crazy win yesterday as they hit a homer in the 9th inning to force extra innings and then won it on a 2 out 2 strike grand slam in extra innings. Toronto could be in for a letdown here and Bridwell has a solid 2.04 ERA on the road this season plus a 1.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays J.A. Happ has been struggling. The Jays are 0-3 in the southpaw's last 3 starts and Happ has a 6.60 ERA and ugly 1.93 WHIP in these 3 starts. Happ is also 1-5 with a 6.52 ERA in his 6 starts against the Angels in his career while the Blue Jays lineup has never faced Bridwell as this is his first start against them in his career. Add it all up and you have a lot of edges for the road dog in this one and we like having the added value on the run line here! Toronto is 4-9 in Happ's 13 starts this season. Bet the Los Angeles Angels on the run line at +1.5 runs in early evening action Friday. |
07-26-17 |
Marlins +1.5 v. Rangers | | 22-10 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Miami Marlins Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET
Miami's Jose Urena is 5-0 in his 7 road starts this season and he has a 0.92 WHIP away from home on the year! Texas will have Yu Darvish toeing the rubber this evening and the Rangers are only 4-7 in his 11 home starts this season. Though he has pitched well recently, Darvish has a 4.22 ERA at home on the season and he's over-priced here when consideration is given to how well Urena has pitched on the road all year. The Marlins are 6-3 this season and, going further back, are 15-9 when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Miami will respond after the 10-4 beat-down they were handed yesterday. We like the added value of the +1.5 runs here that is available with the run line. Consider this factoid. The Rangers were 4-6 in their 10 games prior to yesterday's big win and all 4 wins came by just a single run. That means if you played against Texas with +1.5 runs you were on a 10-0 run heading into yesterday's match-up. The fact that the run line is available at a pick'em price range in this one means that the result is exceptional line value here with the +1.5 runs! Bet Miami on the run line at +1.5 runs in evening action Wednesday. |
07-24-17 |
Reds +1.5 v. Indians | | 2-6 |
Loss | -130 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Cincinnati Reds Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET
The Indians are only 5-8 (down 12.0 net units) on the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 this season. We're going to grab the extra insurance of the +1.5 runs here with the Reds on the run line as we fade Cleveland in this spot. The Indians also are only 4-13 (down 17.2 net units) in inter-league action this season. Though Cincinnati is only 2-3 in their last 5 games one of the losses came by just a single run so it would have been a win on the run line. That is significant here because Cleveland really doesn't justify the big line here in our opinion. The Indians are just 4-5 since the All-Star break and one of the four wins came by just one run. Cleveland is only 7-11 in Josh Tomlin's starts this season and he has a poor 6.02 ERA at home this year. The Reds Tim Adleman is off of a quality start and he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 9 of his 11 starts this season. Look for a tight low-scoring ballgame with the wind blowing in on a cool summer evening at Progressive Field and the result is exceptional line value here with the +1.5 runs! Bet Cincinnati on the run line at +1.5 runs in early evening action Monday. |
07-15-17 |
Nationals -1.5 v. Reds | | 10-7 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati Reds, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET
Max Scherzer is not only the ace of the Nationals but, arguably, he is the ace of the league. The dominating Nats right-hander leads the National League in ERA and in strikeouts. Scherzer was particularly dominant heading into the All-Star break as he struck out at least 10 batters in 8 of his last 9 starts. Though the Reds Luis Castillo throws very well, this is going to be a very tough test for the young right-hander. This will be just the 5th MLB start of Castillo's young career and it is the first time he is facing a team for a 2nd time. Historically this type of situation does not go well for a rookie hurler and he did struggle to throw strikes in his first start versus Washington. The Nationals are an amazing 32-7 as a road favorite of -175 or more and most of their winning has been coming by 2 runs or more while the majority of the Reds losses have been by a margin of 2 runs or more. With all of that factored in, this is truly a bargain "pick" price range to lay the 1.5 runs on Washington with the Nats ace on the mound. Grab the line value! Bet Washington on the run line at -1.5 runs in early evening action Saturday. |
07-14-17 |
Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | | 4-2 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Seattle Mariners Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET
James Paxton toes the rubber for the Mariners in this one and he is back on track to say the least! The Seattle left-hander allowed only 8 hits in 20 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts before the All Star break. The southpaw has seen all 14 of his starts result in games that were decided by 2 runs or more so we're very comfortable making this play on the run line. Instead of laying a sizable price with the Mariners were can get them without any juice by grabbing them at -1.5 runs. Paxton has a solid 3.21 ERA on the season and the White Sox have allowed 7.1 runs per game in their last 9 games and they have a struggling starter taking to the mound in this one. James Shields gets the call for the Pale Hose and, after a great beginning to the season, he went on the disabled list and he hasn't been the same since then. Since June 18th Shields has a 7.78 ERA with 7 homers allowed in 19 and 2 / 3 innings. The Mariners current run in games where they were a favorite ranging between -125 and -175 has seen them go 27-9 (75%). That is a fantastic money line record and, with all of Paxton's starts being decided by multiple run margins this season, we'll lay the -1.5 here to get value on the Seattle pricing in this one. This is a big-time pitching mismatch. Bet Seattle on the run line at -1.5 runs in evening action Friday. |
07-09-17 |
Braves +1.5 v. Nationals | | 5-10 |
Loss | -125 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Atlanta Braves Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET
The Braves are 5-3 in their last 8 games and 1 of the losses came by just a single run so the Braves would be on a 6-2 run at +1.5 runs on the run line. That said, we like having Atlanta +1.5 here as they also have had the Nationals number in recent meetings. With yesterday's 13-0 win at Washington, the Braves are 6-3 in their last 9 games against the Nats. By the way, 2 of the losses came by just a single run so the Braves would be on an 8-1 run on the run line in their last 9 meetings with the Nationals. Washington's Joe Ross has been hit hard by the Braves this season and Atlanta will be getting their 3rd look at him already in 2017 as he toes the rubber for the Nats this afternoon. Atlanta will have Sean Newcomb on the mound here and the southpaw had a 1.48 ERA in his first 4 starts this season before his 1st bad start of the year earlier this week versus Houston. With 4 out of 5 quality starts so far this season, the odds are that Newcomb bounces back here! That said, we look for the Braves success against the Nationals to continue in this one. Bet the Atlanta Braves at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in early afternoon action Sunday. |
07-07-17 |
Braves v. Nationals -1.5 | | 4-5 |
Loss | -130 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
Max Scherzer has been on an incredibly dominant run with just 6 earned runs allowed in his last 8 starts! In those 8 outings Scherzer has struck out 87 while allowing only 24 hits in 61 innings! These numbers are truly amazing and, with this being his final start before the All Star Break, we see no reason to expect anything less than another fully focused dominant effort from Scherzer. There is a small price to lay here to have the Nationals at -1.5 runs but the last 10 Washington wins with Scherzer on the mound have featured 8 wins by 2 runs or more. The Braves R.A. Dickey is a veteran knuckle-baller who has had a few good starts recently but most of those were at home. That is significant because, on the road this season Dickey is 1-4 with a 6.30 ERA. Also, he's facing the Nats for what will be the 4th time already this season and the extra exposure is doing him no favors. The Atlanta right-hander has given up 12 runs (10 earned) on 16 hits (including 4 homers) in the 10 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts versus Washington. Of the Braves 6 losses with Dickey on the mound this season, 5 have come by 2 runs or more. Looking to avenge last night's loss to the Braves, the Nationals are 35-15 (70%) in night games this season and you can see why there is a high probability that win comes by a margin of at least 2 runs. Bet the Washington Nationals at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Friday. |
07-05-17 |
Reds +1.5 v. Rockies | | 3-5 |
Loss | -140 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Cincinnati Reds Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET
The Reds crushed the Rockies 8 to 1 yesterday as Colorado continues to be one of the coldest teams in the league over the past 2 weeks! The Rockies have now lost 11 of their last 13 games. Though Jonathan Gray is back for Colorado (and had a strong first outing in his return from the DL), the Reds will have a rejuvenated Scott Feldman toeing the rubber for this one. The veteran right-hander has been utilizing his curveball with great success of late and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts! During this stretch Feldman has struck out 28 in 32 innings while walking only 6. Cincinnati has won 6 of Feldman's last 8 start and one of the two losses came by just a single run. We like the added value of laying a reasonable price to get the +1.5 runs here with the Reds on the run line. Gray may struggle at home in just his 2nd start since coming off of the disabled list and the Rockies hitters do not have much familiarity with Feldman. Until the Rockies can prove they are ready to shake their slump, they are an easy fade in a spot like this. Bet the Cincinnati Reds at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in evening action Wednesday. |
07-04-17 |
Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | | 3-4 |
Loss | -140 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET
With many of our run line plays we lay very little juice, no juice, or sometimes even get a plus money offering. In this specific instance, there is a price on this run line but the edges here are so strong it is well worth the price to the Dodgers in a game they should absolutely dominate. Los Angeles is starting Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are 15-2 in his starts this season. He has held opponents to 0 runs on 7 hits while striking out 20 in his last two starts. The LA left-hander has dominated Arizona in recent meetings and, with a 2.32 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this season, that domination should absolutely continue Tuesday night. Kershaw should be given plenty of run support as the Dodgers face a road-adverse Patrick Corbin of the Dbacks. The Arizona lefty is 1-5 on the road this season and the poor record is no fluke as he has been crushed away from home: 8.13 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Corbin is unlikely to fare well at Dodger Stadium as the Dodgers have crushed him for 24 hits in 15 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts against them. The Dodgers, as a home fave of -250 to -300 on the money line, are 5-0 this season and 19-3 the past 3 seasons. LA has been red hot and 16 of their last 17 wins have come by 2 runs or more so we are happy to lay the 1.5 runs here! 14 of Arizona's last 19 losses have been by a margin of 2 runs or more! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night action Tuesday. |
07-03-17 |
Mets +1.5 v. Nationals | | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* New York Mets Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 6:05 PM ET
The Mets are up against Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals and this game is in Washington. Those factors have resulted in an over-inflated line and, as a result, there is a reasonable price available on the Mets at +1.5 runs on the run line. New York has Steven Matz on the mound and the southpaw has given up only 14 hits in 3 road starts this season and those outings have combined for 20 innings! Matz is facing a Washington team that beat him last month but that is the only win the Nationals have in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. The scheduling situation favors the Mets here as they played early yesterday versus Philly while the Nats were on the road at St Louis last night. Though the Nationals won last night they lost 5 of 7 games before notching that victory last night. The Mets had won 7 of 8 before getting upset the Phillies yesterday. Strasburg has a 4.67 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 4.41 ERA at home this season. New York, behind another strong outing from Matz, will be "in this one" all the way and we'll grab the added line value of the +1.5 runs with a dangerous road dog here. Bet the New York Mets at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Monday. |
06-30-17 |
Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres | | 10-4 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) over San Diego Padres, Friday at 10:10 PM ET
Since June 11th the Dodgers have won 15 of 18 games with 14 of the 15 wins coming by 2 runs or more. With that said, we're happy to lay a very small price Friday night to have the Dodgers on the run line in a game they should dominate! Alex Wood is on the mound for LA and the Dodgers have won each of his last 8 starts! 7 of the 8 wins have come by a margin of 2 runs or more. Clayton Richard toes the rubber for the Padres in this one. San Diego has lost 10 of his last 15 starts. 9 of the 10 defeats have been decided by 2+ runs. Also, while Wood has been fantastic all season, Richard continues to get hit very hard for the Padres. The San Diego southpaw has allowed opponents to hit .305 against him this season. This was after he got rocked at a .300 clip last season too! Clayton gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Dodgers early last month. As for Wood, he has a 2.53 ERA in his career starts versus the Padres and he has fanned 22 in 13 innings in his last two starts versus San Diego. The Padres are 8-14 versus left-handed starters this season. The Dodgers are 23-8 against teams with a losing record and 10-2 on Fridays and 5-1 as a road favorite of -175 or more this season. With odds heavily in favor of any Dodgers win likely to come by 2 runs or more (refer to stats above), we love the value here with LA on the run line. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night action Friday. |
06-29-17 |
Twins v. Red Sox -1.5 | | 3-6 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Minnesota Twins, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET
After getting upset 4-1 by the Twins last night, the Red Sox should respond in a big way this evening as they have a massive edge on the mound in this one. Of course the expected domination is why David Price and the Sox are 2 to 1 favorites on the money line for this one. The big value here is with the run line as, by laying the 1.5 runs with Boston, we are able to get a very small price in a game that should be a rout. Price has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 5 of his 6 starts this season. Kyle Gibson toes the rubber for the Twins at Fenway Park tonight and Gibson has a 6.23 ERA on the season. Of course this is nowhere close to the 3.75 ERA that Price has at home this season and the Red Sox southpaw also went 9-3 with a 4.11 ERA in home starts last season! In night games last year Price was 13-6 with a 3.57 ERA. Though Boston has been up and down lately (4-4 their last 8 games) all 4 wins came by 3 runs or more. Minnesota, prior to last night's upset win, had lost 7 of their last 12 games and all 7 losses came by 3 runs or more. With that said, expecting a run by 2 runs or more here is certainly not expecting too much! The Twins are 1-3 as a road dog of +175 to +250 this season while the Red Sox are 9-2 as a home fave of -175 to -250 this season. Boston has been at their best off of a loss this season as they've gone 23-11 after a defeat and we look for a huge response from the Red Sox here. The home rout is fully supportable, as you can see from the above, and we're laying the very reasonable price to grab the home team on the run line. Bet the Boston Red Sox at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Thursday. |
06-27-17 |
Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | | 0-4 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET
The Dodgers 10-game winning streak came to a surprising end last night in their 4-0 loss to the Angels. However, the Angels are 1-3 this season when off of a shutout win. The Dodgers are 4-0 this season when off of a shutout loss. Also, the Dodgers run extends to 20-8 the last 28 times they've been shutout. We look for the big response here and we expect the win to come by a margin of at least 2 runs as Kenta Maeda rates a big edge over Jesse Chavez on the mound. The Angels right-hander has recorded 0 victories in his last 3 starts and Chavez has compiled a 7.98 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in these outings. On the road this season he is 2-4 with a 6.75 ERA. Maeda has led the Dodgers to an 8-3 record in his 11 starts. Though his 4.30 ERA at home may not seem that impressive he does have a 1.13 WHIP at home. In other words, he has pitched better at Dodger Stadium than that ERA would indicate. In fact the Dodgers are 4-1 in his home starts this season. Here is another interesting factoid supporting the run line in this one: Maeda's last game was decided by one run but each of his first 10 starts were decided by 2 runs or more. Also, all 8 of the road starts Chavez has made have been decided by 2 runs or more. The home rout is fully supportable here and we're laying the very reasonable price to grab the home team on the run line. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night action Tuesday. |
06-26-17 |
Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | | 4-0 |
Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 10:05 PM ET
The Dodgers have won 10 straight games and 16 of their last 17 overall. Of course that is why they're priced as a heavy favorite on the money line here. However, on the run line, we can get fantastic value with the Dodgers at -1.5 runs. They key to feeling comfortable with laying the 1.5 runs here is that the Dodgers last 13 wins have included 12 victories by 2 runs or more! In other words, the Dodgers haven't just been winning, they've been dominating. Also, the Angels last 8 losses have all come by 2 runs or more. The Angels will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound and they are an ugly 3-12 in his starts this season. In fact, the Angels have lost 10 straight Nolasco starts and 6 of the last 7 defeats have come by 2 runs or more! He has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Also, 2 of Nolasco's last 3 road starts have seen him allow 5 earned runs or more. The Dodgers have Rich Hill toeing the rubber for this one. The southpaw has led the Dodgers to victory in 4 of his last 5 starts and all 4 wins came by a multiple run margin. Hill has made 9 starts this season and only 2 were truly ugly outings. In his other 7 starts he has compiled a 2.53 ERA. The Dodgers are an incredible 18-3 this season as a home fave in a money line range of -175 to -250 and you can see from the above why we expect their 11th straight win to come tonight and to come by a multiple run margin! Lay the small price and grab the value with the run line on Hill and the Dodgers in this one. Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in late night action Monday. |
06-25-17 |
Rangers +1.5 v. Yankees | | 7-6 |
Win | 106 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Rangers Run Line (+1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 2:05 PM ET
The Yankees continue to be over-priced and, in this spot, we can grab the added value of the +1.5 runs and still not have to lay a price. In other words, it's is +1.5 runs and no juice on the run line for the Rangers. With the dominating 8-1 Texas win yesterday, the Yankees have now lost 9 of their last 11 games! The Rangers have been surging the other direction as Texas has now won 10 of their last 15 games. Michael Pineda toes the rubber for the Yanks in this one and his full season numbers look great but he's been getting a bit touched up in recent starts. In Pineda's last two starts he has given up 17 hits in 11 and 2 / 3 innings on the mound. Texas has 3 homers against Pineda the last two times he has faced them in the Bronx. The Rangers Nick Martinez has given up just 2 earned runs in his last 2 starts against the Yanks in the Bronx. Also, he is being a bit under-valued here when you consider that he has a solid 1.20 WHIP over his last 5 starts. Martinez has been victimized by some big hits recently and that has impacted his ERA but he's truly been putting forth a respectable job on the mound and the Rangers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts. The Yankees are 0-2 in Pineda's last two starts. Also, the Yankees, since mid-June, only have 1 win by more than a single run. Getting the Rangers at +1.5 runs here is a solid bargain as they've only had 3 losses by more than a single run the past 3 weeks! Bet the Texas Rangers at +1.5 runs on the Run Line in afternoon action Sunday. |
06-23-17 |
Reds v. Nationals -1.5 | | 5-6 |
Loss | -120 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:05 PM ET
The Reds have lost 11 of their last 12 games. 8 of the 11 losses have come by 2 runs or more. That's why we're jumping all over the value here with the Nationals available at a very fair price on the run line Friday. By laying the 1.5 runs we get the Nats in a price range of about 120 or 125 and the odds are certainly in favor of a blowout win here. The Reds are starting Luis Castillo in this one and the young 24 year old hurler has never pitched above the AA level of the minors in his career. Not only is Castillo jumping from the AA level straight up to the majors for this start, he only made 3 starts at the AA level last season. Most of his young career has been spent in the rookie league and single A level of the minors. With that said, he now makes a big jump and faces one of the top hitting teams in the majors! Look for Washington to explode here after yesterday's Nationals loss followed a 5-3 run where the Nats seemed to be turning things around again. With Stephen Strasburg toeing the rubber this evening that should certainly help matters for the Nationals here. He is 8-2 on the season with a 1.08 WHIP on the year. The ace right-hander held the Reds without a hit in a 6 and 2/3 scoreless innings versus Cincinnati when he most recently faced him. Simply put, this game has the makings of complete domination and we'll grab the fantastic run line value in this one. Bet the Washington Nationals at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Friday. |
06-22-17 |
Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | | 10-5 |
Win | 110 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Los Angeles Angels Run Line (+1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET
The Yankees defeated the Angels yesterday but Los Angeles has only lost back to back games one single time since the very beginning of June. With that said, we're looking for the bounce back from the Angels today. After all, the Yankees had lost 7 straight games before notching the victory yesterday. The fact it that the Yanks have been struggling to get wins and they are priced too high in this spot. We're grabbing the run line to have the added insurance of the +1.5 runs without even having to lay juice. This is a great value for the road dog as Jesse Chavez toes the rubber for the Angels in this one and he is 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in his 4 starts against New York in his career. Chavez has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 3 of this last 4 starts! The Yankees counter with Luis Severino in this match-up. Severino has put up solid numbers on the season but did allow 4 earned runs in his start at pitcher-friendly Oakland Friday. The Angels have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game in their last 13 games. The Yankees, prior to yesterday's win, had averaged only 4 runs per game in their last 7 games and the Yanks were held to 7 hits or less in 4 of the 7 games! The simple fact here is that one win doesn't mean that everything has suddenly turned around the Yankees. Look for the Angels to be in this one all the way if they don't get the outright upset look for it to be a tight one-run loss. We're grabbing the run line value with the underdog here! Bet the Los Angeles Angels at +1.5 runs on the Run Line Thursday. |
06-20-17 |
Padres +1.5 v. Cubs | | 0-4 |
Loss | -113 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Diego Padres Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET
We won with this pick yesterday and we won't hesitate to come right back with the same selection today. The Padres are now 4-3 in their last 7 games but all three losses have come by a single run. That means we have excellent line value here with San Diego at close to even money on the run line. At +1.5 runs the Padres are now on a 7-0 run at the betting window and Jhoulys Chacin is in top form right now. Chacin toes the rubber for the Padres at Wrigley Field this evening and he is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, the right-hander hasn't started against the Cubs since the 2012 season so this is an edge for Chacin as the hitters haven't seen much of him recently. Mike Montgomery gets the start for the Cubs tonight and he has been respectable in his first two starts since moving into the rotation. However, the southpaw allowed 6 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start and 3 walks in 4 innings in his prior start. As you can see, Montgomery certainly has not been dominating nor has he been able to pitch deep into games. The Cubs are over-priced here. Chicago is off of a tight win yesterday but, prior to back to back wins, they had previously lost 7 of their last 10 games. Also, the Cubs have lost 4 of their last 6 games at home. We'll grab the extra insurance of the +1.5 runs here as we expect Chacin to excel against a Chicago lineup that has been held to 3 runs or less in 4 of its last 5 games. Bet the San Diego Padres at +1.5 runs on the Run Line Tuesday. |
06-19-17 |
Padres +1.5 v. Cubs | | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* San Diego Padres Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET
The Padres are 4-2 in their last 6 games and both losses came by a single run. That means we have excellent line value here with San Diego at close to even money on the run line. At +1.5 runs the Padres would be on a 6-0 run at the betting window and Clayton Richard is a solid southpaw. Richard toes the rubber for the Padres at Wrigley Field this evening and he is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Cubs. Also, Richard has a solid 3.41 ERA in his last 5 starts. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs tonight and he is off of a strong start versus the Mets in his most recent outing. However, prior to a great game at New York, Lester had compiled an 8.16 ERA in his three prior starts and that included a pair of outings at home too. The Cubs are over-priced here. Chicago is off of a win yesterday but they had previously lost 7 of their last 10 games. Also, the Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 games at home. We'll grab the extra insurance of the +1.5 runs here as we expect Richard to excel against a Chicago lineup that has been held to 3 runs or less in 3 of its last 4 games. Bet the San Diego Padres at +1.5 runs on the Run Line Monday. |
06-13-17 |
Phillies v. Red Sox -1.5 | | 3-4 |
Loss | -125 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Boston Red Sox Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET
The Phillies blew a 4-0 lead and lost 6-5 in extra innings yesterday. Of course that comes as no surprise as Philadelphia is now 0-6 in interleague play, 10-27 in night games, and 11-30 when off of a loss. All of those angles are in effect here and we can get a very fair price on David Price and the Red Sox by grabbing Boston on the run line in this one. The Red Sox are 7-2 as a home favorite in a range of -175 to -250 this season. Boston is also 7-1 on Tuesdays this season. The BoSox have also dominated interleague action to the tune of a 9-3 record against NL clubs. Ben Lively toes the rubber for the Phils in this one and will be making just his 3rd start at the MLB level. Though he has a low ERA in his first two starts, Lively did allow 9 hits in 7 innings in his most recent start and that was at Atlanta. Pitching at hitter-friendly Boston and facing an AL lineup will likely prove even tougher for the young right-hander. As for Price, he is off of a tough start but that was against the Yankees and they have proven to be a bit of a nemesis for him. In his two prior starts, the Red Sox left-hander gave up only 5 hits in a solid 12 innings of work. Facing the light-hitting Phillies should help Price return to that type of domination as we forecast Philadelphia to lose their 7th straight game. Bet the Boston Red Sox at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Tuesday. |
06-12-17 |
Braves v. Nationals -1.5 | | 11-10 |
Loss | -120 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 9* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5 runs) over Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:05 PM ET
The Nationals just got swept at home in inter-league action over the weekend and they are certainly ready to respond here on Monday with their "stopper" Stephen Strasburg on the mound. The right-hander is also in "bounce-back mode" since he was out-dueled by Clayton Kershaw in a tight loss to the Dodgers in his most recent start. Though Strasburg took the loss he continued his strong pitching as he has given up just 5 earned runs on only 15 hits while striking out 41 in 27 and 2 / 3 innings. As you can see from those numbers, Strasburg has been at the top of his game and, in fact, the Nationals had won 6 straight Strasburg starts prior to the loss at Dodger Stadium. Strasburg also has dominated the Braves so far this season and, though both wins came by just a single run, we expect he'll get plenty of run support today. For one thing, the total on this game has risen from an 8 to a 9 and that's because sharps are pounding the over even though this match-up has the looks of a pitchers duel on the surface. Why wouldn't it be a pitchers duel? It would have to be Mike Foltynewicz of the Braves getting pounded because Strasburg is simply too much for this struggling Braves lineup. Part of the reason Foltynewicz is likely to get pounded here is that his last two starts came against two weak teams (Phillies and Reds) and now he faces one of the majors' best teams! Although the Nats struggled at the plate yesterday, they had averaged 10 hits per game in their 3 prior games. As for the Braves, they have been held to just 1 run in each of their 3 prior games and they were held to 6 hits or less in each of those 3 games as well. The Nationals are 26-9 in night games this season. The Braves are 12-21 when off of a loss this season. Foltynewicz had allowed 17 earned runs on 36 hits in 25 innings over his last 5 starts before he had success against Philly and Cincy. Look for his recent struggles to resume against a quality Washington lineup even if Ryan Zimmerman is unable to play tonight. Look for a blowout here and we only have to lay a small price to have the Nats at -1.5 runs in a game they should win handily behind another gem from Strasburg. Bet the Washington Nationals at -1.5 runs on the Run Line in early evening action Monday. |