Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-17-19 | UCLA +7 v. Stanford | Top | 34-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on UCLA. I got down early and have UCLA at the opening line, but since the Cardinal reported that third-string QB Jack West is going to start, the line has dropped between 3 and 4. Regardless, I believe this one now definitely favors the Bruins. UCLA's offense has come to life of late under QB Austin Burton and with nothing to lose (except another game!), the last place Bruins will be giving the pivot the green light from start to finish. The Cardinal beat the Huskies 23-13 two weeks ago, but the change at QB is going to be difficult in my estimation. Key Trends: - UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. - Stanford is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 after playing a conference game. - The Cardinal are a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five off a home win vs. a confernece rival. The verdict: I believe that an outright upset is possible, but in the end I'm grabbing the points! | |||||||
10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 32-28 | Loss | -101 | 119 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns. For this pick I'm looking at it from an overall situational stand point and in my opinion, this one simply means "more" to the home side. The Browns are off a terrible showing on Monday Night Football vs. the 49ers and they'll be looking to move back to .500 with a small upset at home here. The Hawks on the other hand have to travel across country for an early afternoon non-conference contest, after their thrilling win at home over division rival LA. I'm not convinced that Seattle really does have the "better" team on paper. The Browns issues mostly revolve around themselves shooting themselves in the foot. I expect a much better effort at home from Cleveland and I do indeed feel this also sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Key Trends: - Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two more consecutive victories. - Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 14 points or less in its previous game. The verdict: I expect Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to deliver the goods on their home field; grab the point/s! | |||||||
10-12-19 | USC +11.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 102 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on USC. USC is 3-2 and Notre Dame is 4-1. The Trojans enter off a 28-14 loss to Washington, while the Irish rolled over Bowling Green 52-0 last weekend. USC though has had a week off to digest its latest setback and with Kedon Slovis now directing the show under center, I believe the visitors can keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest (732 yards passing with five TD's and four INTs). USC also has three backs with over 150 rushing yards, so Slovis has help. USC only allows 411.4 yards of total offense per game, so I think Irish QB Ian Book takes a step back this weekend, after last Saturday's "cream puff" matchup. Key Trends: - USC is already 2-0 ATS this year after one or more consecutive losses ATS. - Notre Dame is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two straight home wins by 14 points or more. The verdict: I think the rested home side can keep this one very close. No outright, but definitely grab up all these points! | |||||||
10-11-19 | Colorado +20.5 v. Oregon | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Colorado. Am I suggesting that you should "sprinkle" a little on the money line in this one? Of course not. But I do think that the Buffs can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the monster spread they've been afforded here. The Buffs pulled off an upset win on the road over Arizona State, before then losing to Arizona this past weekend. Still, Colorado also has a victory over Nebraska as well. Buffs' senior QB Steven Montez is arguably playing the best of his career thus far, averaging 8.3 yards per passing attempt. Yes Oregon is still the best team in the confernce and Justin Herbert faces a weak Colorado secondary, but I think Montez keeps his team in this one late. Key Trends: - Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range. - Oregon is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a home win vs. a conference rival. The verdict: The Buffs haven't been an "easy out," as both of their losses have been tight. Expect this one to follow suit and grab the points! | |||||||
10-06-19 | Colts +12 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a letdown last week, falling at home to the lowly Raiders. Indianapolis and Jacoby Brissett though have been solid and competitive this season, after not many gave them hope after starting QB Andrew Luck retired at the start of the campaign. Clearly Indianapolis got caught “looking ahead” to this difficult matchup. Kansas City is 4-0, but it had to come from behind on the road to beat the Lions 34-30 last weekend. Patrick Mahomes is willing his team to victory, but the Chiefs’ defense has been terrible overall. I think Brissett and the Colts can keep this one competitive down the stretch. Key Trends: - The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. - The Chiefs are interestingly only 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home vs. Indianapolis. The verdict: The Colts upset the Titans 19-17 in Nashville in Week 2, so the team knows how to compete on the road. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! | |||||||
10-05-19 | Virginia Tech +14 v. Miami-FL | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Virginia Tech. The Hokies enter off a loss to Duke, 45-10. VT will be focused on the task at hand here and while I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle. Miami Florida is just 2-2 as well, most recently holding on for a tight 17-12 win over lowly CMU. This is a pivotal game as each team looks to keep their bowl hopes alive. Last week VT QB Ryan Willis was 7 of 8 for 112 passing yards, one TD and one INT last week. Fortunately for Willis and company, the Hurricanes have also looked horrible on both sides of the field. Miami also comes out of its bye week, and I think that rest is going to lead to rust. Key Trends: - Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last I’ve following a SU win. - The Hurricanes are a poor 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games. The verdict: Willis won’t have an easy time moving the ball, but neither will Miami. In what I expect to be a sloppy game, I’m going to grab all the points and expect a “nail-biter!” | |||||||
10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on South Alabama. No outright victory, but I expect this one to be a lot closer than what this line/spread would suggest. Both teams are terrible, meaning that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as very real factor for the Jaguars tonight. The Georgia Southern Eagles are 1-3, while South Alabama is 1-4. Last year Georgia Southern went 10-3 and it beat EMU in its bowl game, but it lost all of its talent to graduation and now the Eagles are grounded. Georgia Southern’s only win this year has come against FCS Maine. Georgia Southern is also allowing 35 PPG thorugh its first three FBS contests. The Jaguars are only 1-4, but they’ve had the much more difficult schedule to this point. Note that South Alabama played Nebraska in its opener and only lost by 14 (put up 21 points of its own!) And the Jaguars other contests came against Memphis and tough road contests vs. UAB and ULM. Key Trends: - South Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records. - The Eagles are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on field turf. The verdict: I think Georgia Southern is on the ropes and I look for the home side to risk life and limb to pull off the upset tonight. That said, let’s grab all these points! | |||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes Cincinnati has ALMOST won in both Seattle and Buffalo this year, but the team still comes to town 0-3. The Steelers are 0-3 as well and they’re dealing with significant injury, as QB Ben Roethlisberger The Steelers are down to backup Mason Rudolph, who I think will benefit greatly from playing at home this week. Andy Dalton has been the lone bright spot on the Bengals’ offense, as his line continues to be a weak point. The Bengals have also been poor in the secondary. The Steelers strength is on the defensive side and I think the unit is a difference maker in tonight’s contest. I’m also calling for a big day from RB James Conner, who to this point has been pretty quiet for Pittsburgh. The verdict: Throwing out the ATS stats for this one, and concentrating on the situation. I have a hard time seeing this Bengals offense mustering much of an attack in this hostile environment and I look for Conner to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short points! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +16.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Josh Rosen doesn’t have much to work with as the QB for the Miami Dolphins this year, but he’s not going to down without a fight this afternoon. Rosen and the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose. Miami is already looking ahead to next season after a rash of injuries de-railed its season. But more than anything I think the Chargers are vastly over-rated here. LA clearly has the better team on paper, but so far it’s been terrible to start the season with back-to-back losses. RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t come back to next week and I think LA’s struggling offense continues to sputter vs. this hungry home side. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - Miami is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC West (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn’t hurt the Dolphins, that’s for sure!) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the points and expect a closer than predicted battle! | |||||||
09-28-19 | NC State +6 v. Florida State | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -104 | 102 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS is on NC State. I think the visitors will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Wolfpack are 3-1 to start, while the Seminoles are 2-2 after beating Louisville at home last weekend. NC State can score, it averages 34.0 PPG, with RB Zonovan Knight leading the charge with 269 rushing yards and three major scores over three games. The WolfPack are also getting solid play from QB Matthew McKay, who has three TD’s and one INT. The run game is strong for the visitors as well with Ricky Person Jr, who will test FSU’s 91st ranked run defense, which allows 159 yards per game. FSU QB James Blackman has also been a manager for the most part, with the Seminoles offense centred around RB Cam Akers. Note though that NC State is allowing just 76 rushing yards per game this year, ranked 14th in the nation. Key Trends: - NC State is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a no-cover where it won SU as the favorite. - FSU is only 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home. - The Seminoles are a poor 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after playing a conference game. The verdict: While I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two hungry sides has its hands on the ball last! | |||||||
09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* play on Virginia Tech. Both teams are 2-1. The Hokies have looked shaky so far this season, losing to Boston College in Week 1 (five turnovers) and then struggling to get past ODU and FCS Furman. Duke meanwhile has looked a bit better, getting smashed by Alabama in its opener, followed by lop-sided wins over North Carolina A&T and MTSU. The Hokies have a big opportunity today on home field though to reverse their early struggles and I believe they step up and do just that. Note that VT has won three straight in this series. Duke’ QB Quentin Harris has looked sharp in the early going, but his numbers are skewed over the last two games facing such poor competition. The Hokies sport the 88th ranked run defense, which matches up well against Duke, which averages 181 rushing yards per game thus far. Duke has given Harris plenty of protection so far, allowing only one sack to this point, but note that the Hokies rank 17th in the country with 3.33 sacks per game. The home side turns to Ryan Willis to air it out today to Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson. Key Trend: - Duke has only forced three turnovers this year. The verdict: I’m unconvinced that Duke can keep up this pace and I think that its young QB finally takes a step back today vs. the more experienced home side and in this difficult road venue; lay the short points! | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH is on the Washington Redskins. So far the Bears’ offense has looked terrible. The defense has been decent, but the level of competition to this point is suspect in my opinion. Washington comes in at 0-2 and desperate for a victory. The Redskins have been horrible defensively, but the offense has in fact been above average (24.0 PPG, ranked 10th). With their season on the line, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Chicago is 7-9 ATS on the road in its last 16. - The Bears are only 1-2 ATS in their last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: Washington QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has been bad overall this season, throwing for just 120 yards last week. I’m banking on the “hungrier” team getting the job done tonight; grab the points! | |||||||
09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog. - The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more. The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points! | |||||||
09-21-19 | Central Florida -11 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on UCF. UCF started last year 3-0 and it enters this one with a 3-0 record as well. I believe the Knights keep the foot on the gas here and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. And if recent history is any precedence, then UCF has to be loving its chances as it destroyed Pitt last year 45-14. The Knights’ offense has been impressive, averaging 50 PPG so far. Last week the Knights smashed Stanford 45-27. Pittsburgh stumbled down the stretch last year to finish 7-7 and it’s also stumbled out of the gates this season by going 1-2. Last week the Panthers feel 17-10 at Penn State. Key Trends: - The Knights allow only 13.7 PPG The verdict: UCF QB Dillon Gabriel went 22 of 40 for 347 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s last week. All four TD passes went to four different players. Pittsburgh has gotten decent play from QB Kenny Pickett, but I’m not reading too much into last week’s stats. Look for the Golden Knight’s smothering defensive play to be too much for the home side to handle down the stretch; lay the points! | |||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -123 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Titans. After Nick Foles went down with injury, the Jaguars hopes of a playoff berth went down the toilet too. Now 0-2 to open the year and down to backup Gardner Minshew under center, I believe that the Titans bounce back from their inexplicable 19-17 loss to the Colts last weekend. Back-to-back losses to divisional opponents, especially one which has so many injuries to key players (CB AJ Bouye, WR Marqise Lee, DE Yannick Ngakoue and LT Cam Robinson.) The Titans annihilated the Browns in Week 1 and I believe we’ll see a return to form here. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss. - The Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after one or more straight losses. - The Jags are a poor 7-8 ATS in their last 15 at home. - Jacksonville is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The verdict: I think the Titans are the better team in all three phases and I don’t see them looking past this opponent after last week’s “brain fart.” Lay the short points! | |||||||
09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -104 | 59 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Houston. It’s the opening of AAC play for both teams. Houston is just 1-2 after back to back losses to two tough opponents in Oklahoma and Washington State. D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet so far, but I think that’s been because of the level of competition to open. The Green Wave have made significant strides and enter at 2-1, but I think they’ll have a hard time containing King and company and this Cougars offense which finished No. 16 in passing in the nation last year. Justin McMillan is a legitimate dual threat back for the Green Wave, but I don’t expect the Cougars to give up as many yards to him as they did to Jalen Hurts. Key Trends: - Houston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 when playing with six or less days rest. - Tulane is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home win by 17 points or more. The verdict: Tulane lacks the scoring punch of Houston and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I think this one comes right down to the wire; grab the points! | |||||||
09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +23.5 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA No outright victory obviously, but after starting 0-2 the UCLA Bruins are going to be desperate to pull off an upset here. With nothing to lose and playing with a sense of season ending desperation, I do indeed believe that the home side will keep this one competitive until the final moments. And would anyone fault the Sooners if they were caught “looking past” their lowly opponent in some small way today, especially after easily beating Houston and South Dakota? UCLA has talent on the defensive side of the ball and Sooners’ QB Jalen Hurts will be tested. OU’s D though is still trying to find itself under new coordinator Alex Grinch, so UCLA RB Joshua Kelly and company will have their opportunities. Key Trends: - Oklahoma is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite. - UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: UCLA has the size up front to make things difficult for OU. No outright, but expect this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points! | |||||||
09-13-19 | Kansas +22 v. Boston College | Top | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Kansas. Outright victory? Of course not. But I think that BC gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today. BC upset VT 35-28 in Week 1 and then followed it up with a simple 45-13 victory over FCS Richmond in Week 2. KU beat Indiana State 24-17 in its opener, before stumbling 12-7 at home to Coastal Carolina. Kansas has a big bruising back in Khalil Herbert and I believe he’ll be a difference maker today; so far he has 170 rushing yards over the first two games. Key Trends: - KU has played solid defense so far, allowing an average of 4.9 yards per play. - BC has allowed 403 total yards per game so far, so the opportunities for KU will be there tonight. The verdict: BC has a great back in AJ Dillon, but as pointed out above, I think the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest; grab up all those points! | |||||||
09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -104 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Carolina Panthers. Bruce Arians is a good NFL head coach, but the Bucs are a bad team. TB QB Jameis Winston had 194 passing yards last week in his team’s 31-17 home loss to San Francisco, but he also had three INT’s, two of which were returned for a TD. The Bucs looked “OK” defensively, but it’s hard to truly judge facing San Francisco. The Panthers lost 30-27 to the Rams on Sunday, starting slowly and never able to recover. RB Christian McCaffrey had himself a day though, finishing with 128 rushing yards and two TD’s (also led the team with ten receptions.) Key Trends: - Tamp Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing at least 30 points in its previous game. The verdict: The short week always favors the home side and I definitely expect that to be the case on Thursday night. I don’t think Tampa’s offensive issues are going to suddenly fix themselves in such a short time and I do believe that the Panthers will play much better defensively this week. Lay the points with confidence! | |||||||
09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 245 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Every team in the National Football League has “big” expectations heading into a new campaign, and these two clubs are no different. Houston finished with an 11-5 record a year ago, while the Saints lost a heart-breaker to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game under a controversial call. Note though that last year Mark Ingram had the second most rushing yards in the league for the Saints and he’s now gone to Baltimore. I think this effects the offense for the home side early this year. Key Trends: - New Orleans has dropped every season opener since 2014. - The Saints have lost their first home game in each of their last four seasons. The verdict: Both teams have new faces on both sides of the ball, but the situation and numbers point to a competitive battle in my opinion; grab the points! | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers +7 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -137 | 222 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Year after year these two teams are always in the playoffs and making a serious run at the championship. New England more so than Pittsburgh of late. New England made a big acquisition in Antonio Brown on Saturday, but I think that’s going to be more of a distraction. The Super Bowl Champ has done well ATS in its first game back the following year, but I believe that trend finally comes to an end vs. this hungry visiting side. Pittsburgh hates AB and it hates New England. I think the “hungrier, hate filled” side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (and 5-0 ATS its last five as a road dog). - New England is only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: I think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab as many points as you can! | |||||||
09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -5.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh stumbled vs. Virginia last weekend, but I think the Panthers make adjustments and bounce back big vs. Ohio. The Bobcats are a legitimate MAC contender, but with a game at Penn State next weekend, clearly Pittsburgh can ill afford to look past its potentially dangerous opponent today. However, I’m not reading too much into any “trap” this weekend. I would have though if Pittsburgh had won last week, but because of the setback, that factor gets thrown out the window completely. Key Trends: - Ohio is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after a win by 21 points or more. - Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival. The verdict: The Panthers’ offense stalled against Virginia’s aggressive unit, but i think that Pittsburgh gets back on track with a full four quarter effort and before it’s big matchup on the road next weekend; lay the points! | |||||||
09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +18.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -108 | 100 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Rice. Rice didn’t look very good offensively in last week’s 14-7 loss to the Army Golden Knights, but the Owls looked exceptionally good on the defensive end. Wake Forest managed a 38-35 win over Utah State in Week 1, but it pretty much looked horrible on both sides of the ball, especially defensively where it allowed over 410 yards passing. Rice won’t be lacking for confidence today and I believe the visitors are definitely over-rated considering their form last weekend. Key Trends: - Wake Forest is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a favorite. - The Demon Deacons are only 4-6 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. - Rice is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a cover where the team lost as an underdog. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can! | |||||||
09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Green Bay clearly has the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers, but the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that far behind. Rodgers has a new coach in Matt LaFleur and many new faces on the offensive side of the ball as well. The Packers can’t possibly be any worse on the defensive side of the ball after conceding 28 PPG last year, but the unit will have some chemistry issues as well in my opinion to open things up. And that leaves the door open for Chicago on Opening night. The Bears’ defense was tops in the NFL last year, allowing only 17.7 PPG and the entire unit is back and ready to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. The verdict: I love Rodgers and I think he’s going to put up big numbers this year. But Also think that Matt Nagy and the Bears have this game circled on their calendar since the end of last season; lay the points! | |||||||
08-31-19 | Fresno State +13.5 v. USC | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 730 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* game of the month on Fresno State. Clay Helton managed to keep his head coaching job for the Trojans last year despite finishing just 5-7. It’s a difficult schedule ahead for USC as well, with Stanford coming to town next, then at BYU, Utah, at Washington and at Notre Dame to follow, I believe the home side does in some small way get caught “looking ahead” to its daunting schedule. USC has plenty of offensive talent and great coaches, but it’s inexperience on its offensive line is a clear weakness. And that’s bad news facing this powerful Fresno State defensive front, which isn’t going to concede many yards on the ground and is therefore going to make the Trojans attack extremely one-dimensional. Key Trends: - Fresno State beat UCLA 38-14 last year. - The Bulldog beat Arizona State 31-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl last season. The verdict: USC also has issues in its secondary. I’m expecting a war until the final whistle; grab the points! | |||||||
08-29-19 | Kent State +26 v. Arizona State | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 733 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Kent State. Kent State is a train-wreck the last few season and it should once again struggle this year. ASU has to be liking its chances at home after watching Arizona fall on the road in Hawaii in its opener. But the Golden Flashes won’t be going down without a fight. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that ASU gets caught looking past its lowly opponent here. The verdict: Kent State returns its entire offensive line, which will benefit QB Woody Barrett. I’m not convinced of this ASU defense, especially all of the new faces up front. Besides, ASU features a new QB in true freshman Jayden Daniels. The Golden Flashes have a golden opportunity here and I’m grabbing the points! | |||||||
01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 147 h 50 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New England Patriots. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Experience and recent history. So far he Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been “phased” by anything this year. The young gunslinger fired 50 TD strikes this season. The Pats’ beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home and I think an upset is in the makings here as well. The experience that New England brings to the table in this situation, combined with the fact they’ve already proven it can beat the Chiefs are my “key angles” to this contest. Key Trends: - The Patriots are still 16-8 ATS their last 24 on the road. - New England is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. - The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a very close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less. The verdict: I’m banking on Tom Brady advancing to another Super Bowl! | |||||||
01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -7.5 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history and scheduling. The Saints demolished the Eagles 48-7 in Week 11. The Eagles have been “on fire” since then, but I think they finally run out of gas here, only advancing to the divisional round because of a missed FG. Key Trends: - The Eagles are just 6-7 ATS in their last 12 as a road dog. - Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its last three “dome” games. - The Saints are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three following their “bye.” The verdict: Expect New Orleans to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points! | |||||||
01-13-19 | Chargers +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -109 | 144 h 2 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots and that includes 0-2 in the playoffs (2008 and 2009). Rivers comes to Foxborough with his last, but best chance to finally avenge those setbacks. LA has a dominant run game and it’s defense looked sharp in last week’s big win over the Ravens. Key Trends: - LA is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year. - The Chargers are 8-1 ATS on the road this season. - New England is already 0-3 ATS thi shear after two straight wins by ten points or more. The verdict: Revenge is a dish best served cold. Grab the points, expect a battle to the end! | |||||||
01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -121 | 127 h 23 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Hot at the right time. Dallas enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. The Cowboys avoided a dangerous team last week in the Hawks and Russell Wilson, who put up his best numbers of his career. Dallas is on fire on both sides of the ball and I think it has a legitimate shot at stealing this one outright. Key Trends: - Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - The Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more consecutive wins. - LA is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: As stated above, I think the outright is possible, but in the end I’ll grab the ample points! | |||||||
01-12-19 | Colts +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -104 | 124 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Chiefs’ terrible defense. KC looked poor down the stretch, but it did break a two game slide with a win over the Raiders in Week 17 to earn the bye. KC is the highest scoring team in the league, but the Colts’ Andrew Luck is on fire right now and I don’t foresee him having any issues matching pace with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes this afternoon. The difference is on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts have looked considerably better on that side of the ball all year, and especially of late. The Colts allow 21.5 on the year, while the Chiefs allow 26.3. Key Trends: - The Colts are a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off a road win vs. a division rival. - The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a week off. - KC is a poor 1-2 ATS in its last three off a home blowout win of 21 points or more. The verdict: An outright victory is obviously not out of the cards, but in the end I’m grabbing what I believe to be a healthy amount of points! | |||||||
01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 101 | 129 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Seahawks. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. Lots has changed for both teams since Seattle beat the Cowboys at home 24-13 back on September 23rd and while Dallas has gotten significantly better on both sides of the ball since that setback, so too have the Seahawks. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a superb season and he’s backed by one of the league’s No. 1 rushing units. Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliot finished with almost 1,500 yards rushing, but I think Wilson has the major advantage under center vs. Cowboys’ pivot Dak Prescott. I think this is a bad matchup for Dallas and the loss earlier in the year proves that. Key Trends: - Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a road dog this year. - The Hawks are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the NFC East. - Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 off a division game. The verdict: Wilson is the correct call. Grab the points. | |||||||
01-01-19 | Washington +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Washington. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Dominant Huskies secondary. Washington just faced the nation’s No. 1 passing attack in the Apple Cup vs. Washington State and it left with a convincing 28-15 victory, allowing just 152 passing yards (beat Utah 10-3 in the Pac 12 Championship as well.) Ohio State is the second ranked passing attack. Key Trends: - Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a close win by seven points or less vs. a conference rival. - Ohio State is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite this year. - The Buckeyes are just 1-3 ATS in their last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. The verdict: The Huskies have the veteran leadership at QB to keep pace and a defense to slow down the high-flying Buckeyes. Grab the points. | |||||||
01-01-19 | Iowa v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Mississippi State. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. Mississippi State is playing in its ninth straight bowl game and its 9-2 in its last 11 bowl games overall. Iowa is 15-15-1 all time in bowl games and it’s lost four of its last five. Key Trends: - Iowa is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games. - The Hawkeyes are interestingly only 1-7 TS in their last eight games played on grass. - Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games. - The Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Mississippi State has the slight edge on both sides of the ball and I’m predicting an double-digit victory today. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-31-18 | Michigan State v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Oregon. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - No offense for MSU. As good as the Spartans are defensively, I just can’t see them keeping pace with the higher-tempo Ducks down the stretch. MSU got the better of Rutgers 14-10 in its regular season finale to finish 7-5, but the win broke a string of two games where it finished in single digits in scoring and would hit the double-digit mark for just the third time in six games. Oregon on the other hand throttled Oregon State 55-15 in the Civil War, rolling up a whopping 510-366 yardage advantage. Key Trends: - Michigan State is just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this year. - The Spartans are just 1-3 ATS in their last four off a home victory. - Oregon is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a favorite. The verdict: Bank on the Ducks running away with this one (quite literally), as the game winds down. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-30-18 | Raiders +14.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -130 | 78 h 33 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Oakland Raiders. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. Oakland lost 40-33 at home to KC earlier in the month and I expect it to put up a similar fight here. The Raiders come in off a commanding win over the Broncos, while the Chiefs enter having lost two straight. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home. - The Raiders are a perfect 2-0 ATS their last two off an ouse win by ten points or more as an underdog. The verdict: The Chiefs lock up the division with a win today, but their continued lack of defense keeps this one closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. | |||||||
12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -12 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Clemson. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Suspect run defense for the Irish. This is my “key angle” for this game. The Irish ranked 29th in the country in allowing 113.5 YPG, which is the only opportunity this dynamic Tigers offense will need. Clemson RB Travis Etienne has 1,463 rushing yards and 21 TD’s. Key Trends: - Clemson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU win. - The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight bowl games. - The Irish are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site affairs following a three weeks or longer layoff. The verdict: too much QB Trevor Lawrence (2,606 passing yards, 24/4 TD:INT). Too much Etienne. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-29-18 | Florida +7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 483 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Florida. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Surging offense. Both teams feature capable offenses and elite defensive units. Florida averaged 34.5 PPG and allowed 20.4, while Michigan averaged 36.8 points and allowed 17.6. But the Gators’ offense was simply on another level down the stretch and I think that momentum gets carried over here and it becomes my “key angle” for this contest (note that Florida posted 46.3 points over its last three games.) Key Trends: - Florida is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games already this year. - Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last skive after its “bye” week. - The Wolverines are a poor 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. The verdict: I’m going to recommend to “sprinkle” a little on the money line as well. That said, grab the points. | |||||||
12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 | Top | 63-14 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Purdue. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - “Home Field Advantage.” This is a neutral site game for the Music City Bowl, but the Boilermakers are located just 350 miles from West Lafayette. Purdue has sold out its allotment of tickets heading into this one. Auburn on the other hand got some bad news in that dynamic playmaker Asa Martin is leaving the team, while QB Jarrett Stidham had already previously announced that he’d be forgoing his senior season to enter the draft. The Boilermakers struggled down the stretch defensively, but with three weeks off to prepare, I think Purdue comes to play today. Key Trends: - Auburn is just 2-5 ATS in its last seen neutral site games. - The Tigers are only 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. - Purdue is 7-1 ATS In its last eight non-conference game. - The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The verdict: The stage is set for an upset. That said, grab the points! | |||||||
12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +3 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Wisconsin. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Recent history and inclement weather. Wisconsin beat Miami Florida in the Orange Bowl last year. Note as well that Miami played six road games this year and it lost three of them in “cold” weather (Virginia, Georgia Tech and Boston College.) This one is being played at Yankee Stadium in late December (Pinstripe Bowl). Key Trends: - Miami is just 5-7 ATS as a favorite this year. - Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog. - The Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last three off a loss vs. a conference rival. The verdict: This one could come down to the final whistle. Grab the points. | |||||||
12-26-18 | Minnesota +6 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky's 10 play on Minnesota. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Momentum. The Golden Gophers needed a epic win over Wisconsin in their regular season finale to move to 6-6 and to bowl eligibility. I expect the Minnesota to carry that momentum over here into this one. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year. - The Yellow Jackets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Georgia Tech’s four game win streak to end the season was snapped with a loss to Georgia in its finale. I think the “hungrier” team keeps this one competitive late. Grab the points. | |||||||
12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Raiders. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Final game for Raiders in Oakland Coliseum? If it is, David Carr and his patchwork team will want to make it a good one. The City of Oakland has filed a lawsuit against the team, which is expected to leave to Las Vegas in 2020: “Just raging in the Black Hole,” Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden said reminisced recently about his favorite Coliseum memories. “Rocking and raging down there after the Steeler game [last week], after a lot of wins over the years. Seeing a lot of the old highlights of great Raider teams, I get excited. I get emotional about it, and hopefully we get it all resolved so we can continue to play there. It’s a real football stadium,” he added. “It’s dirt, grass, it’s got tradition. It’s where some of the best games in the history of football have been played. I mean, there are a lot of things that have happened in that stadium and, uh, next question. I don’t want to start crying about a stadium.” Key Trends: - Denver is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. - The Broncos are just 1-2 ATS in their last three MNF games. - Oakland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: Grab the points and expect a nail-biter. | |||||||
12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 92 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Can Clinch. Dallas had a chance to clinch the NFC East last weekend, but its momentum was derailed in a shutout loss to the Colts. The Cowboys can still claim that title with a win here today though and facing the Bucs who enter off consecutive setbacks to the Saints and Ravens. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following a loss. - Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. - The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the NFC. The verdict: A great situational play. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-23-18 | Bills +14 v. Patriots | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Buffalo Bills. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The role of spoiler. Buffalo won’t be making another appearance in the playoffs this season, but it’ll try to delay the Patriots winning the AFC East for at least another week. Never before in the last decade has Tom Brady and company looked more susceptible at this time of year. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a win by three points or less. - New England is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: The stage is set for a closer than expected battle, so grab the points! | |||||||
12-22-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Hawaii +1 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Hawaii. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Momentum and home field advantage. LT comes in off back-to-back losses to Southern Miss and Western Kentucky. Hawaii comes in off back-to-back wins over UNLV and San Diego State. Key Trends: - Louisiana Tech is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a conference rival. - Hawaii is 3-1 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival. - The Warriors are 3-1 ATS in their last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. The verdict: I think Hawaii’s offense wins the day over the Bulldogs’ defense. Play on the Warriors. | |||||||
12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the LA Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Bigger aspirations and home field advantage. The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot, but they’re still neck and neck with the Chiefs for the best overall record. With a chance to end the Ravens playoff hopes, look for LA to pull away down the stretch in friendly confines. Key Trends: - Baltimore is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of 3.5 to seven points. - The Ravens just 2-4 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. - LA is already 3-1 ATS this season off a division game. - The Chargers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: As good as the Ravens are defensively, I can’t see them keeping pace with Rivers and company. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Marshall. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Uncertainty at the QB position for the Bulls. Forget the fact that USF lost five straight to end the regular season. The Bulls have plenty of problems on both sides of the ball and I have a hard time seeing them matching pace with this loaded Herd side. But USF is dealing with an injury to starting QB Blake Barnett, who is questionable of this one as well. Backups Brett Kean and Chris Oladokun simply won’t cut it here. Key Trends: - South Florida is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss of more than 20 points. - Marshall is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 40 points or more. - The Herd are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 non-conference contests. The verdict: Lay the points, because this one has blowout written all over it! | |||||||
12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Ohio. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - SDSU is amazingly 13-0-1 lifetime vs. the MAC, but I think Ohio’s relentless rushing attack will prove to be just too much for SDSU to hold up to. This is a classic battle in the trenches, as the Aztecs’ strength on the defensive side is against the run, ranked fourth in the nation. But SDSU is going to have its hands full with the Bobcats’ AJ Ouellette, who had a career high 196 rushing yards in Ohio’s win over Buffalo in its second to last regular season game. Ouellette is my “key angle” for this contest. Key Trends: - Ohio is 3-1 ATS in its last four neutral site games. - The Bobcats are 3-0 ATS in their last three after scoring 42 points or more in back-to-back games. - SDSU already just 1-3 ATS in non-conference games this year. - The Aztecs are only 3-4 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: SDSU is healthier than it’s been in a long time, but Ohio is just too strong on both sides of the ball. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on UAB. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Better offense. Both teams are very adept defensively. Although UAB’s defensive unit is slightly better (the Blazers allowed 17.3 PPG and the Huskies allowed 21.5), the Blazers are significantly better on the offensive side, averaging 29.3 PPG, compared to NIU’s 20.7. Key Trends: - The Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with winning records. - NIU is 0-5 ATS in its last five bowl games. - The Huskies are just 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site affairs. The verdict: This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points and expect a rout. | |||||||
12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Motivation levels. The Saints are 11-2 and control their own fate at this point. If they win out, they’ll earn top spot in the NFC due to the tie-breaker owned vs. the Rams. While Carolina still has a mathematical shot at a wild card berth, the Panthers have zero momentum whatsoever after suffering a fourth straight loss by one possession in last week’s 26-20 setback to the lowly Browns. Key Trends: - New Orleans is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. - The Saints are 6-1 ATS on the road this year. - Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. division opponents. The verdict: Lay the points and expect a blowout. | |||||||
12-16-18 | Packers v. Bears -5.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Green Bay won the first meeting of the year 24-23. This is my “key angle” for this play. Key Trends: - Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS on the road. - The Packers are already 0-4 ATS this season after winning and covering in their previous game. - The Bears are already 4-0 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The verdict: Lay the points, expect a rout. | |||||||
12-15-18 | Browns +3 v. Broncos | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Role of spoiler. Cleveland is gunning for as many victories as possible after its winless campaign a year ago and it won’t be holding anything back today. If the Browns do win, they’ll be putting the final nail in the coffin to the Broncos’ season. This is my “key angle” to this game. Key Trends: - Cleveland is already 7-4 ATS this year as an underdog. - The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after playing a home game. - The Broncos are only 5-7 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite. - Denver is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 following a road loss. The verdict: Grab the points and expect a competitive fight until the end. | |||||||
12-15-18 | Arizona State +5 v. Fresno State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 33 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Arizona State. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Manny Wilkins. The ASU QB is 4-1 SU this year in games decided by no more than three points. The oddsmakers believe this is going to pretty much be a “nail biter” as evidenced by this spread. I’m banking on the senior pivot once again performing under pressure and I look for him to keep this team in this one late. Key Trends: - ASU is already 3-0 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. - The Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a close win by seven points or less over a conference rival. - Fresno State is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a neutral field favorite of seven points or less. The verdict: This one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points. | |||||||
12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -126 | 53 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chiefs. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. The Chiefs have already beaten the Chargers 38-28 on the road back in Week 1. I think this is a tough match-up for LA and I think it’ll struggle again in this unfriendly stadium. Key Trends: - LA is just 2-4 ATS in its last six in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. - Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. - The Chiefs are still 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. the division. The verdict: Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers is just 5-7 in his career at Arrowhead Stadium, including four straight losses there. With a win KC wraps up the AFC West title and with so much on the line, I expect it to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. | |||||||
12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans -4.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Houston Texans. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Home cooking and recent history. The Texans already beat the Colts 37-34 in OT in Week 4 in Indianapolis and I have a hard time seeing Andrew Luck and company keeping pace today in this hostile venue and after their 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville last week. Note that the Houston offense has scored a combined 63 points over its last two games. Key Trends: - Indianapolis is just 12-17 ATS in its last 29 as an underdog. - The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. - Houston is already 3-1 ATS vs. the division. The verdict: Lay the points. | |||||||
12-09-18 | Panthers v. Browns +2 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Role of spoiler. The Browns have an opportunity to end the Panthers season with a win in front of the home town crowd. With nothing to lose, I think Mayfield and company will at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Carolina is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 off an upset loss as a favorite. - Cleveland is 3-1 ATS already this season as a home dog. - The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a loss by 14 points or more. The verdict: Play on Cleveland. | |||||||
12-02-18 | Colts v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 144 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s been a horrible year for the Jaguars, a season de-railed by injury and bad luck. Blake Bortles has been benched in favor of Cody Kessler and with nothing to lose, I think the home side keeps this one close until the final moments. The Colts have been playing at a very high level with Luck under center, but this is a spot that they’ve struggled in for bettors. Key Trends: - The Colts are just 3-5 ATS this year vs. the conference. - Indianapolis is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a home win. - The Jaguars are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: Jacksonville fights and takes it down to the wire. Grab the points. | |||||||
12-01-18 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh +25.5 | Top | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 28 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Pittsburgh. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Tigers play well at home, but two of their last three games have been decided by 21 points or less and they looked less than spectacular vs. South Carolina last weekend, allowing 510 yards through the air. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 5-3 ATS in their last eight as an underdog. - Pittsburgh is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference. - The Panthers are already 3-0 ATS This year after scoring 14 points or less in their previous game. - The Tigers are already 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range (and 2-6 ATS long-term.) The verdict: Grab the points. | |||||||
11-30-18 | Utah v. Washington -4.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 112 h 3 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Washington. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Utah doesn’t have either its starting RB or QB playing in this one. - The Huskies have dominated this series, going 11-1 in the last 12, with three straight wins including a 21-7 road victory back on September 15th. Key Trends: - Utah is just 2-3 ATS after two or more SU wins this year. - Washington is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Look for Jake Browning to end his Pac-12 career with one more big victory. Lay the points. | |||||||
11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Buffalo. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Buffalo plays with revenge after falling 14-13 in this game last year. The Huskies come in with zero momentum with two straight losses. Key Trends: - Northern Illinois is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two or more SU losses. - Buffalo is 5-1 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival. - The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Lay the points. | |||||||
11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - New Orleans is the hottest team in the league and a “letdown” at some point is inevitable. Or is it? The Saints have won ten straight and they’ll be looking to keep things rolling at they try to lock down the first round bye in the playoffs. This my “key angle” for this selection. Key Trends: - The Saints are 6-2 ATS as a favorite. - New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 after two or more consecutive victories. - Dallas is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a division game. The verdict: Lay the points. | |||||||
11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Houston Texans. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Houston has a slim lead in the AFC South after last week’s win in Washington. Tennessee enters off a 38-10 loss in Indianapolis last weekend and another divisional contest on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track in my opinion. Divisional contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. Home field advantage is my “key angle” in this contest. Key Trends: - Tennessee is just 9-14 ATS on the road in its last 23. - Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last nine trying to revenge a loss to an opponent. The verdict: Houston plays with revenge after falling 20-17 in Tennessee back in Week 2. That was then and this is now. Lay the points. | |||||||
11-25-18 | Cardinals v. Chargers -12 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Chargers lost to the Broncos at home last week, but the still have an opportunity to take a strangle hold on the Wild card spot with a win today. The Cards are down and out and already planning for next year. I expect a full four quarter effort for the Chargers after last week’s “dud.” Key Trends: - Arizona is just 4-7 ATS in its last 111 non-conference games. - The Cardinals are only 7-12 ATS in their last 19 on the road. - The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games coming off an ATS loss at home. The verdict: Lay the points. | |||||||
11-25-18 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New York Jets. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s hard to imagine Tom Brady and the Patriots “looking past” the Jets today, but that’s exactly what I’m expecting with a game at home against the Vikes up next. This is my “key angle” for this contest. Key Trends: - The Patriots are just 2-3 ATS in their last five following their bye week. - New England is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. - New York is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Grab the points. | |||||||
11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State -2.5 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 62 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Boise State. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - With a win today Boise State can win the Mountain West conference. Utah State’s strength of schedule is called into question here and the home field advantage factor turns into my “key” angle for this matchup. Key Trends: - Utah State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records. - Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last six at home. - The Broncos are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 off a win vs. a conference rival. The verdict: Lay the points. | |||||||
11-23-18 | Oklahoma -2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Oklahoma. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Sooners will be playing in the Big 12 Championship game regardless of the outcome of this contest, but clearly Oklahoma still has bigger plans in mind sitting at 10-1. WVU needs to win this and have Texas lose (not likely) to be invited to the Championship game. I believe the visitors can smell the blood in the water and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas. Key Trends: - Oklahoma is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. - The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I simply can’t see Oklahoma faltering again at this point. Lay the points. | |||||||
11-23-18 | Nebraska +10 v. Iowa | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Nebraska. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Nebraska comes in on top form, with quality wins over Illinois and Michigan State. A great “situational” angle here, as clearly the Huskers are playing for pride with no chance at a bowl. Iowa on the other hand is 7-4 and win or lose, it’s not going to affect its standings. Key Trends: - Nebraska is already 3-0 ATS this season against clubs with winning records - The Huskers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 on the road. - Iowa is just 2-3 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: The Hawkeyes get caught looking past their lowly opponent, leaving the back door open. Grab the points. | |||||||
11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints -13 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 106 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Two more wins and the Saints will lock up a first round bye in the playoffs. Key Trends: - The Falcons are just 1-3 ATS on the road. - Atlanta is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive losses. - The Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: Take New Orleans. | |||||||
11-22-18 | Colorado State v. Air Force -14 | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 38 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Air Force. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Senior night. The Falcons won’t be playing in a bowl, but after last week’s collapse against Wyoming, I’m expecting the home side to take out its frustrations on the lowly Rams with a big effort on both sides of the ball. Key Trends: - Colorado State is already 1-3 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival. - Air Force is already 2-0 ATS this year as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. - The Falcons are 3-1 ATS at home this season. The verdict: Lay the points. | |||||||
11-22-18 | Bears -4 v. Lions | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 70 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Bears already beat the Lions easily 34-22 at home. Chicago has won four straight and with a chance to put the Lions out of their misery after their upset win over the Panthers last weekend, I believe the defensive minded visitors drop the hammer on the national stage. Key Trends: - Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a favorite. - The Bears are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 vs. the division (including 3-0 ATS this season.) - Detroit is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight against the division. - The Lions are only 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: Take the Bears. | |||||||
11-20-18 | Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on NIU. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - NIU has already captured the MAC West Title, so last week’s loss to a desperate Miami Ohio team does nothing to its ranking. However, clearly the Huskies will be looking to end the regular season on a winning note before the Champ. game. Key Trends: - The Huskies are already 3-1 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. - WMU is only 1-6 ATS this season against conference opponents. - The Broncos are already 0-2 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: WMU is already bowl eligible and it has nothing to play for here. The Broncos lost their “mojo” after starting QB Jon Wassink was lost for the season last month. Look for the Huskies to take advantage. | |||||||
11-17-18 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Georgia Tech. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Virginia is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 vs. the conference. - Georgia Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records. - The Yellow Jackets are 10-7 ATS in their last 17 at home. The verdict: Home field turns out to be the difference here. Lay the points. | |||||||
11-17-18 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Pittsburgh. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival (including 3-1 ATS this year) - The Panthers are already 5-1 ATS against the conference this season. - Wake Forest is already 0-3 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Wake is still without QB Sam Hartman and I have a hard time seeing the home side keeping pace with the high-flying Panthers. Lay the points. | |||||||
11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +8.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -107 | 107 h 0 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on SMU. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU wins. -SMU is already 3-0 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. - The Mustangs are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 at home. The verdict: SMU has won two straight and needs one more victory to become eligible. The Tigers are injured and they just punched their ticket to bowl eligibility last weekend. The favorite is primed for an outright upset here. That said, grab the points. | |||||||
11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Green Bay Packers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Green Bay is interestingly 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games. - Seattle is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 at home. - The Seahawks are only 10-14 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite. The verdict: This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points. | |||||||
11-15-18 | Tulane +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 17-48 | Loss | -108 | 82 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on Tulane. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Tulane is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range. - Houston is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival and only 9-13 ATS in its last 22 against the conference. The verdict: Tulane comes in off a nice win and is only allowing 22 PPG this year. Grab the points. | |||||||
11-14-18 | Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois -6 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -111 | 59 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Northern Illinois Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Note that Northern Illinois is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records. - The home team is 6-3 ATS in the last nine in this series. - The Huskies are already 3-1 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. The verdict: Take NIU. | |||||||
11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the 49ers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - New York has lost 12 of its last 13 dating back to last year. - San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine coming off a victory and holding its opponent to three points or less in doing so (won 34-3 over the Raiders last weekend) - The Giants are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following their bye and a three games or more unbeaten streak. The verdict: A week off isn’t going to help Eli Manning and company. Home field is the difference, take San Fran. | |||||||
11-11-18 | Dolphins +10 v. Packers | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dolphins: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. - The Packers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in November. Verdict: Take Miami | |||||||
11-10-18 | Oregon +3.5 v. Utah | Top | 25-32 | Loss | -103 | 92 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky's 8* play on the Ducks: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Ducks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November. - The Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a winning road record. - The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Verdict: Take Oregon | |||||||
11-03-18 | Alabama v. LSU +14.5 | Top | 29-0 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Tigers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Home field has been a big deal for LSU, and the Tigers have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 in Baton Rouge. Key Trends: - The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November. - The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. - The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Verdict: Take LSU | |||||||
11-03-18 | Penn State +10.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-42 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 1 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Nittany Lions: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. - The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. - The Nittany Lions are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 conference games. Verdict: Take Penn State | |||||||
10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State +2 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 130 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* GOY play on the Cougars: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage particularly significant. Additionally, this appears to be a classic let down spot for the Ducks coming off a lucky win over Washington due to a missed FG by the Huskies. The Cougars also come off a bye week, giving them more time to rest and draw up a game plan. Key Trends: - The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. - The Cougars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games. - The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Verdict: Take Wazzu | |||||||
10-20-18 | Michigan -7 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Wolverines: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home team's struggles defensively are particularly significant. - The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games - The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. - The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Verdict: Take Michigan | |||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 137 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* GOY play on the Chiefs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Chiefs offense is particularly significant. KC is averaging an unbelievable 35 points per game so far. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. - The Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win. Verdict: Take KC | |||||||
10-13-18 | Wisconsin +9 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 7 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Badgers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Badgers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. - The Wolverines are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October. - The Badgers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Verdict: Take Wisconsin | |||||||
09-29-18 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -1 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 103 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Under: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Wildcats defense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Gamecocks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. - The Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings. - The Gamecocks are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Verdict: Take UK | |||||||
09-23-18 | Colts v. Eagles -6 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Eagles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. - The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take Philly | |||||||
09-08-18 | Rice v. Hawaii -17 | Top | 29-43 | Loss | -107 | 83 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Rainbow Warriors: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the run and shoot offense is particularly significant. Hawaii has scored 102 points in two games so far. Key Trends: - Cole McDonald is the nation's leading passer with 846 yards after two games. - Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. - Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Verdict: Take Hawaii | |||||||
09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Seminoles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Tallahassee is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. - The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Verdict: Take FSU | |||||||
08-30-18 | Northwestern +2 v. Purdue | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Northwestern Wildcats. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the loss of so many starters on defense for Purdue is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Wildcats return 14 starters from last year's team that went 10-3. - The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall. - The Wildcats are 4-0 straight up in their last four versus Purdue. Verdict: Take NW | |||||||
02-04-18 | Eagles +5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 266 h 38 m | Show |
Super Bowl experience goes a long way and one could easily say the Patriots may win this game solely on that aspect, but at the same time the inexperience factor may actually help the Eagles to not overthink and to stick with what got them here in the first place. Nick Foles is competent enough at the QB position to not lose this game for the Eagles and therefore I see this playing out as a competitive game across offense, defense and special teams. I don't foresee either team running away with it because the Eagles have a very stout D which should keep them in the game regardless if the offense struggles, meanwhile the Patriots offense has the ability to keep them in the game if their defense struggles. Despite the obvious experience at the head coaching position with Bill Belichick, Eagles HC Doug Pederson is a real up and comer and very sharp in his own right. I expect both coaches to devise excellent game plans and adjust as necessary after half time. The Eagles will likely double Gronk and play man-to-man at every other position. I don't think they will blitz all that much, because D Lineman Cox is essentially a double man rush by himself and as long as the press man-to-man coverage + double team on Gronk it would only leave an open receiver somewhere. The Patriots coaching staff is smart enough to know this Eagles game plan may present itself and therefore I would expect them to practice and game plan against this themselves. Overall, I see this be a very competitive game and likely a field goal win on either side. Philadelphia Eagles +5 | |||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
This matchup is very interesting to me. First of all, let’s talk about the perception: The Eagles used their home field advantage, windy conditions and defense to beat an inefficient Falcons team 15-10 at home last week. Nick Foles didn’t get punished for bad throws and their defense did their job against laughable play-calling by Steve Sarkisian. I expected a close game and it was a solid win by the Eagles. But the perception on the Falcons was way too high which makes that win better than it was. Their run game got hyped, but it was basically just one solid drive. Overall, the Igglez had 3.0 yards per carry against a bad run defense. Nick Foles is a significant downgrade from Carson Wentz and the truth lies in the numbers over his sample size starting with the Giants game, the first game he was the starter. With Nick Foles, the Eagles offense produced 5.35 net yards per pass attempt which would rank 28th in the league, right ahead of the Colts, Browns, Packers and Ravens. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced 3.5 yards per carry which would rank 30th in the league, right ahead of the Lions and Cardinals. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced a 3rd down conversion rate of 30.2% which would rank 32nd in the league. Considering all that, they played vs the Giants, Raiders, Cowboys (3 drives) and the Falcons. The Vikings defense is way ahead of that bunch. The Vikings won against the Saints by a miracle. The truth is, the Vikings started off 17-0 and led the game for the first 57 minutes. One of the best offenses in the league took care of short fields and Drew Brees delivered some awesome throws against a tiring defense who lost their starting free safety. For the Saints getting a lead at any point during that game was almost a bigger miracle than the Diggs-touchdown at the end. The Vikes flat out dominated one of the best teams of 2017 for the major part of the game. The Vikings are the better team, period. The Eagles have been staying at home for a month now and I read a lot about how good their defense has been in their last four home games: 3 pts vs Bears, 10 pts vs Raiders, 6 pts vs Cowboys & 10 pts vs Falcons. The best offense of those four teams were the Falcons and they don’t really come close to the Vikings offense. Vikings OC Pat Shumur has implemented an efficient offense featuring two awesome WR's with great play-calling that just needs to be executed properly. Case Keenum does just that. This Vikings team presents a matchup the Eagles haven’t faced in weeks. The Eagles have a great offensive line, without a doubt. But it’s a different matchup than last week as the Vikings defense is a complete unit, provides great front four pressure, can stop the run and cover guys in space. The only weak spot on the Eagles line is LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He is going to line up against stud Everson Griffen and that’s a terrible matchup as Griffen is going to slide past Vaitai by speed and bull rushes. Vaitai just cannot handle him. That puts Nick Foles under consistent pressure from his blind side or forces Doug Pederson to double Griffen with a 6th OL, TE or RB. However he plays Griffen, it’s going to disrupt the Eagles’ gameplan a bit. Eagles are normally quite successful, but if they can’t run the ball efficiently on the Vikings front seven as I expect, Nick Foles is gonna be in a lot of long third down situations and that isn’t a good idea. The Vikings defense ranks 1st in third down conversion rate as they allow only 25% of third downs to be successful. On the flip side, the Vikings offense doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Eagles have one of the best 4-3 defensive line in the league and they are going to win their fair share of matchups in the trenches against a Vikings offensive line that has been playing solid, but gave up a lot of pressures. Vikings will struggle to run and the Eagles will be able to move Keenum off his spot, but I give the Vikings a much better edge than the Eagles offense on the other side. Reason 1) Case Keenum’s 55.7% completion percentage under pressure has been the league’s best and his 10.7 sack conversion rate was the 2nd-best. Not only did Pat Shumur a good job with excellent scheming, Keenum also spent 2000+ plays in the virtual reality room, getting adjusted to every kind of situation / blitz / pressure and playing through all the plays again. Reports say that it helped him a lot. 2) The Vikings have maybe the best WR tandem in the league and they have a solid matchup against the Eagles CB's group. Shumur will put Keenum in pass-first situations and use the phenomenal quick route running of Diggs and the great ability to adjust at the catch point by Thielen to provide Keenum with a lot of quick options and also just 'throw it up' options. The Eagles defense will absolutely get their stops and they are also good to pick Case Keenum off, but the passing efficiency and the great opening drive scripts by Shumur might just be too overwhelming for them. The stadium is going to go nuts and the Philly crowd will bring the hammer with all the shepard masks. However, the weather conditions aren’t an advantage for the Eagles this time as weather reports call for 40°F and almost no winds. That favours the Vikings passing offense again. Nick Foles will struggle more than Case Keenum, the Vikings defense will create more stops and possibilities for turnovers. The Vikings offense should be able to score in the 20's and should stand much tougher with a lead than they did last week against the Saints. Vikings win this one and I am expecting a 24-13 kind of score. Minnesota Vikings -3 | |||||||
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 37 m | Show |
I think Vikes are the slightly better overall team with a brutal defense and a good offensive system. Saints D has obviously been regressing quite a bit with those injuries and depth. Bucs and Panthers moved the ball pretty well on them through the air, but the Vikings have a better offense than both of them currently. Vikes got decent OL play, an average rushing attack (has regressed without Cook), but a very efficient passing attack. The X-factor obviously is Case Keenum, but Pat Shumur had two weeks to prepare his team with concepts to attack the Saints. Keenum is always good for an interception and that risk is higher than for Brees, but this offense is so well-designed and Diggs / Thielen are phenomenal pass-catchers who make adjustments to the ball, that Keenums mistakes are rarely punished. The Saints could and likely will sell out way more against the run to make Keenum beat them. Panthers were able to stop the run vs Saints and NO had their worst rushing output this year, but Panthers didn’t have the secondary to compete with the Saints. Vikings can stop the run and have the secondary. They have enough speed on their front seven to contain Kamara in space and their 3rd down / red zone defense is elite. I trust Mike Zimmer that he put together a lot of disguised coverages to rob the Saints of certain strengths on certain plays to make Brees uncomfortable. Vikes have not allowed more than 19 points all season long and that 19 was against the Saints. They won’t be able to shut down that offense, but I think the ceiling for the Saints is around 20 points in this one. Mike Zimmer with the Vikes is 30-4 SU and 31-2-1 ATS when his team scores 21+ points. Minny have one of the greatest home fields in the league, it’s gonna be very loud which might cause some flags. The Vikes have the defense to slow down a good offense and they have the offense to put up points. I lean the home side here at something like a 24-20 / 27-21 or even 28-17 game. Minnesota Vikings -4 | |||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 11 m | Show |
What’s going on with the Jaguars offense? Not that they ever were a unit to be afraid of with Blake Bottles at QB, but they had a very decent stretch where his weaknesses have been masked. During the last couple games, they showed complete regression, even worse than everything I could have expected. This is a top-5 offense vs the No. 1 defense so this matchup should be exciting. The Steelers will show the same gameplan on defense than the Bills: completely sell out vs the run and make Bortles beat them. From weeks 1-12, PIT D ranked 4th in yards per drive. Without Ryan Shazier who left early game 13, the Steelers rank just 29th and played offenses like BAL, CLE, HOU, (NE), CIN. That’s a huge loss and should actually do the Jags a favor. The Steelers had big issues in the first Jaguars game with poor play-calling. Overall, Haley looked lost a lot of times during the year that made the Steelers offense inefficient. The Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so the battle in the trenches is gonna be highly interesting. The Jaguars should still find ways to force a lot of three and outs, because their personnel allows them to attack opponents in various ways. This game is going to be cold (°17 F) and likely ugly because both offenses want to avoid the opposing passing defense. If the Jaguars plays on an average level, I really like the touchdown + hook spread. Hackett might try a few long bombs (also off PA) at the very beginning to test the Steelers defense and keep them honest. Jaguars might be able to keep it close with their defense and they could have a decent shot if they can exploit the Shazier-less defense. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | |||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 0 m | Show |
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel ripped the Oklahoma defense to pieces with big runs countering the Sooners’ incredible offense inflicted upon them for most of the game. Can the Dawgs get the run game cooking against the brick wall that is the Alabama defense? I think it will be tough sleding. Bama is now ranked an amazing 1-1-1-1 in terms of total defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and scoring defense. Ridiculous. They played like their hair was on fire last week vs Clemson but face a new challenge this week in the form of two future NFL RB's. Maybe more if you include their depth. QB Jake Fromm has been truly special as a true freshman playing big time football in their biggest games. Fromm has an excellent 23-5 TD to INT ratio and can make all the throws. The good news is that Fromm does not provide much (if any) threat running the football and they do not have to account for a running QB. You can argue that Clemson needed to take some additional deep shots vs Bama, but it was clear early on that the pressure inflicted by the pass rush was going to make that very difficult. The Alabama offense is not pretty, yet somehow they are ranked #27 in the FBS in total offense and #10 running the football. The passing game is not sexy, but they have one of the best WR's in college football (Calvin Ridley – 59, 935 4 TD) and Jalen Hurts has only thrown one INT all season. ROLL TIDE is ranked #8 in passing efficiency. Hurts can also hurt you with his mobility and provides excellent balance with the 1-2 RB punch of D Harris and B Scarbrough. Those three men have bagged 27 rushing TD's so far this season. It is going to be tough sledding vs the tough GA defense (#31 FBS, #8 vs run) and do not be alarmed by the performance vs Oklahoma. The Sooners had a devastating offense and Bama provides a much more conventional attack that they can handle. It should be noted that Bama has the experience edge playing in more big games and Saban has won 5 of these Championships. They also have: 1) insane defense 2) mobility at QB 3) better spot for Alabama (GA – off 2-OT, travel). I'd give Bama a slight edge in terms of probability of creating disruptive and big plays on defense. Alabama -3.5 | |||||||
01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 45 m | Show |
Some people say it’s tough to beat a team three times a year. That situation occurred six times and the teams who won both previous matchups went 4-2. The Saints have dominated the Panthers twice this year for obvious reasons: they are much better in the single most important category: passing efficiency. Saints are 2nd in QBPR diff, Panthers are a horrendous 24th. The Panthers are an 8.5ish win team by Pythagorean. During their last six games they went 4-2, but in 3 of those 4 losses they were out gained in passing efficiency. They caught the Vikes in their 3rd straight road game and should have lost vs NYJ & TB. This matchup has the biggest discrepancy on my board. The Panthers will most likely get RG Trai Turner back which is huge for the offense, but they don’t have a decent passing attack. Over the second half of the season they have been leaning on the run game (Newton leads his team in rushing yards) and Christian McCaffrey in the short passing game. I don’t see how they stay within 7 in this matchup. Devin Funchess has emerged as their best WR, but he will be locked down by Marshon Lattimore. With Byrd going to IR, Newton doesn’t have options to throw to. The Saints can focus on Newton & Christian McCaffrey to force throws to Olsen or any WR. While the Panthers defense is decent, they seem not to figure out a plan to stop this Saints offense. To be competitive in this game they have to stop the Saints, but it’s a lot to ask for because that offense is so diverse: dominant run game, one of the most explosive RB in the passing game, Tedd Ginn to stretch the field and Michael Thomas who catches everything. It’s really tough to contain that offense who have scored 19+ every time this year. The Panthers need to create key turnovers and key stops to stay in this game, but I highly doubt it. Sean Payton will have his offense ready in the dome. As soon as the Panthers are behind they get forced to throw more often and that’s where Cam Newton will be limited with that kind of supporting cast he has. An efficient run game isn’t enough in the playoff. Saints should control the passing game on both sides of the ball and come up with a win of more than a touchdown here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | |||||||
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 5 m | Show |
The Jaguars were as a surprising team as the Rams. The defense has been playing historically well, especially their pass defense. Their run defense started as the worst early in the season, but got a significant boost when they traded for Marcell Dareus. Their pass defense is amazing – brutal front-four pressure combined with good coverage on the back end by Ramsey & Bouye and a linebacking corp that can cover a lot of ground. This is a textbook pass defense. Their offense is build to pound Fournette with a solid offensive line that had some injury issues during the season but is back healthy now. The pass offense has shown some flashes here and there with great route combinations, Allen Hurns and those speedy undrafted WR's. The Jaguars had some heavy regression the last two weeks (on the road though!) on either side of the ball, getting shredded by Jimmy and Shanahan and throwing lots of picks because they were forced the throw. The Jags want to play with a lead to make the life for Bortles as easy as possible. Fortunately, they can make his life very easy this week because they play against the Bills. The Bills don’t belong into the playoffs, period. They are a truly a 6-10 team. They have the highest difference in the league between pythagorean wins and actual wins. Obviously the one Peterman half was awful, but their D got shredded that game and Taylor took care of not losing so high. During the first half of the season they created a lot of key turnovers which led to wins over bad teams (Raiders, Bucs, Broncos) and they have that one underrated QB who consistently makes the best out of that bad offense. For raw stats guys: Taylor has 14 TD & 4 INT on the year. Sean McDermott lets his defense play very reactive with a zone-heavy scheme. That works well against not-so-good offenses, but they got killed by NO, LAC, NE (2x). Also the Bucs and Jets (2nd game) had a good one against that defense. Even though they are solid against the pass, they cannot defend the run to save their lives. This is a terrible matchup for them against a Jaguars offense that has a run-first approach, has a healthy offensive line and has Fournette back after sitting out a few games. Here is the game script: The Bills defense will struggle against the Jags’ run offense and as the game goes on, they will have to stack the box to not let the Jags run away with the lead and the clock. The Jaguars will jump a lead via defense, field position and their run game. As underrated as Taylor is, he cannot carry that offense against good defenses, because he doesn’t have any decent WR's (Kelvin Benjamin isn’t one), has a bad pass protection and the run game is bad because McCoy gets older, the offensive line is decimated and they don’t have an efficient Mike Gillislee in the rotation. The Jaguars can play the box with a high emphasis, because the Bills’ passing game will be non-efficient. It’s a complete mismatch for them. WR's and TE's will be locked down, McCoy is banged up and the Jaguars can even put a spy on Taylor because they don’t have to shade coverage to known QB-WR connections. I expect the Jaguars to completely shut down the Bills on offense and use short fields and Fournette to score a couple times in the first half and make Bortles comfortable and put him into some read-option and play action kind of plays that could lead to big gains. Jaguars are a top-5 playoff team by efficiency metrics and even Bortles cannot punish them this time. They are at home, first playoff game in years and they have the superior matchup against a team that should rather be 6-10 than 9-7. JAX have dominated bad teams this season and I expect them to do the same against the Bills. Jaguars will dominate this game from start to finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come close to a shutout. Jacksonville Jaguars -8 | |||||||
01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -6 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 36 m | Show |
The turnaround of the Los Angeles Rams has been fascinating. The offensive line is not elite, but they are good enough to execute Sean McVay's offense. McVay has made Todd Gurley the focus point of his offense (2100 scrimmage yards, 4.7 YPC, 60+ rec, 12.3 YPR, 19 total TD's) and has installed a scheme in which WR1 Sammy Watkins takes away the opponent’s best CB with coverage shades and allows guys like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee and Todd Gurley to thrive by attacking certain coverage schemes with route combinations that are also relatively easy to read for Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t turned into an elite QB, but much more towards an average QB who executes a great scheme with great personnel (see Case Keenum in Minnesota). The most underrated aspect of McVay's work is that he understood that Tavon Austin is a bad WR with bad hands. Austin went from 107 targets & 44 punt returns in 2016 to 10 and 17 in 2017. McVay uses Pharoh Cooper as a punt returner and Austin as a runner (55 carries / 4.5 YPC) and more importantly as a threat to the run on end arounds. As soon as Austin fakes an end around, the opposing defense has to account for it, which opens up a little bit more space for runs and play-fakes. He took away every responsibility of Austin to catch passes. This offense is tough to defend for any defense. As a defense you need to provide Jared Goff with brutal front-four pressure and your front seven needs to be good against the run and quick in space. The Seahawks in week 5, the Redskins (highest pressure rate in the league; were healthy in week 2), the Vikings and the Jaguars were able to play like that and they had quite that success, turning into four losses for the Rams. The defense started very slow this year, adjusting to DC Wade Philips’ 3-4 formation and with Aaron Donald not practicing with the team until week 2, but they have been improving throughout the year I don’t think the Falcons are a true playoff team. They have a lot of close wins, could have / should have lost vs Bears, Hawks, Saints first game, Lions. They are the only team in the NFL this year that got a win when throwing 3 picks, and even better, they won two of them. Matt Ryan is having a crazy regression year, the offensive line isn’t as good as last year, other WR's other than Julio are regressing because they aren’t schemed open as they were under Shanny. The defense plays highly conservatively, trying to keep the offense in front of them. Each unit has some quality pieces, but as a whole they don’t really play highly efficient. Their defense has a bad matchup against one of the best offenses in the league. The Rams offensive line is going to win in the trenches and dictate the matchup for the better part of the game, which is very important for Jared Goff. McVay can make Gurley his focus point to get the defense account for him. This will open up the whole playbook and I expect the Rams to show us their arsenal. If the Falcons need to play Gurley, it will open up space and matchups for the TE's and WR's if Sammy Watkins draws coverage from Desmond Trufant. I expect the Rams to attack that defense on all levels of the field and move the ball downfield. If they don’t screw up red zone opportunities, it should be an easy day for the offense. The Falcons should make their priority attacking the ground game, but that can only work in a low scoring affair in which Atlanta controls the clock. Because I expect the Rams to score a lot, the Falcons might be forced to throw the ball too early. However, I expect Wade Philips and a well-rested top-5 Rams defense to come up with a good game plan to contain a Falcons offense that has been struggling in key situations throughout the season. Aaron Donald is going to line up against the Falcons guards who are absolutely the weak spots on that offensive line and he is going to wreck havoc. Rams have a superior offensive matchup and should have enough defensive quality and brain to match up well here. Rams roll, expecting something like a 34-21 kind of game. Los Angeles Rams -6 | |||||||
01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Roll Tide has the #8 rushing offense in the FBS and are going to do their best to hammer the Clemson defense into submission. The Harris/Bo combo has tallied 1400+ yards rushing, and when you include the mobility of Hurts (768, 8 TD), Bama's running game is a real force and will be the key to the game for the offense. They are a bit limited in the passing game with only one proven weapon (Calvin Ridley 896, 3 TD) and will have to find a way to make the ground game work so that the Clemson offense stays off the field. QB Jalen Hurts is a proven winner and very smart with the football (15-1 TD to INT), but he must hit some big plays in the passing game for them to win this game. Clemson brings the #2 scoring defense and #6 total defense into this epic trilogy match-up. The defense does it all. #3 in the FBS in sacks per game. #6 in TFL. Great vs the run and the pass. 5th in the FBS on 3rd downs. Clemson has allowed 3.12 yards per carry and just 5 rushing TD's all season long. Compare that to previous years as such 2016: 3.70 and 20; 2015: 3.54 and 18. It seems that the Tigers are well positioned for this game. The Tigers have a very balanced offense and rank #30 in the FBS overall. QB Kelly Bryant had an excellent first season completing 67% of his passes with 13 TD's and only 6 INT's (362 attempts). He has also rushed for 646 yards and 11 TD's in his spare time. RB's T Feaster and T Etienne combined for 1,400 yards and 20 TD's. The passing game is very diverse with reliable Deon Cain leading the team with 659 yards receiving. They lack the #1 devastating force a la Mike Williams last season, but they are just as hard to defend this year with plenty of options. Clemson +3 |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |