Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-27-19 | Rangers v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Rangers/Tigers. These teams played to a lower-scoring under yesterday, but I think the stage is set for more of a slug-fest in the finale. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here as they’e now lost six straight after falling 4-1 to the Rangers yesterday. The home side hands the ball to Spencer Turnbull (3-7, 3.29 ERA), who is a poor 0-5 with a 4.89 ERA in nine starts in Detroit this year. The visitors counter with Ariel Jurado (4-3, 4.44), who has been shelled for 11 runs over his last nine innings of work, spanning two starts. Key Trends: - Texas has seen the total go over in 16 of its last 24 “day” games. - Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 at home as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: A couple of confirmed “gas cans” going head to head, everything point to a slug-fest in the finale. Play the over! | |||||||
06-27-19 | Mets v. Phillies -148 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. I had a play on the Phillies last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. The Mets hand the ball to Zach Wheeler (6-5, 4.69 ERA), while the home side counters with Aaron Nola (6-2, 4.55). Philadelphia now has a chance to sweep this four game series after erasing a 4-0 deficit to win late last night. Nola has been hit or miss this year, but he comes in with momentum and confidence as well after posting ten K’s and giving up two runs over eight innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to the Fish last time out. Wheeler comes in off a decent outing as well vs. the Cubs, allowing one run over seven innings, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Key Trends: - New York is now just 2-14 (-11 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 18-8 (+6.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like Nola over Wheeler here; all things considered a very fair price on a very hot home team. Lay it! | |||||||
06-26-19 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Rangers/Tigers. The home side turns to ace Matt Boyd (5-5, 3.61 ERA), who looks to bounce back after giving up three home runs in a loss to the Indians on Friday. Boyd though posted six K’s and he’s now recorded at least six in each of his past seven starts. The rangers look to build off yesterday’s 5-3 win by handing the ball to Mike Minor (7-4, 2.52) who is a sharp 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA on the road this year (Minor’s won back-to-back starts and has a tiny 1.93 ERA over his past four outings.) Key Trends: - The Rangers have seen the total go under the number in 18 of 23 already this season after two or more consecutive victories. - The Tigers have seen the total dip under in 25 of their last 40 following a loss. The verdict: I think these hungry starters battle deep; all signs point to the under as the savvy call in this one! | |||||||
06-26-19 | Mets v. Phillies -129 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia has won the first two games of this four game series and with a chance to clinch it tonight, I look for the hungry home side to deliver a third straight victory. Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.54 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and while he was rocked by the Nationals’ in his last start, he’s still 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in five starts since rejoining the rotation. The Phillies have hit eight home runs over the last two games, which doesn’t bode well for Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.75) and the Mets’ bullpen, which has posted an atrocious 7.44 ERA in the month of June. Vargas comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing four runs over four innings. Key Trends: - New York is now a terrible 2-13 (-10 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 17-8 this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to carry over on Wednesday night; lay the price! | |||||||
06-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Rockies/Giants. Colorado won 2-0 on Monday and San Francisco won 4-2 on Tuesday. Runs have so far been hard to come by in this series, but I think the finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The hungry Rockies hand the ball to German Marquez (7-3, 4.32 ERA), while the hungry Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija (4-6, 4.23). Marquez is 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in six starts vs. the Giants, while Samrdzija is 5-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 18 games vs. the Rockies. Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go over in 18 of its last 28 vs. the division. - The Rockies have seen the total soar over in 15 of 25 “day” games this season. - San Francisco has seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 31 at home. The verdict: I think these hungry teams combine to push this total over this tiny number; play the over! | |||||||
06-25-19 | Reds v. Angels -145 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. The Reds enter this two-game interleague series having lost two straight, while the Angels return home off a 6-5 road trip. LA hands the ball to Andrew Heaney (0-1, 5.68 ERA), who missed the first two months of the year. The struggling visitors go with Tyler Mahle (2-7, 4.17) who has been hit or miss this season, especially on the road where he’s 0-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is interestingly just 1-5 (-4.3 units) this season after two consecutive losses by two runs or less to a division rival. - LA is 9-5 as a -150 favorite or higher this season. The verdict: No real advantage on the mound, but the Angels’ benefit from the home field; lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-25-19 | Rays v. Twins -104 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The Rays Blake Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) won the Cy Young award last year, but he’s been terrible this season. The home side hands the ball to Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.18). Both teams had Monday off and each enters hungry for victories after scuffling stretches. Both starters were hit hard in their last outings and each has struggled against their respective opponent in the past. The difference comes in the numbers/trends today. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is just 14-16 (-4.7 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. - Minnesota is 29-17 (+11.1 units) in night games this year. - The Twins are 11-7 (+3.1 units) vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: Snell’s been a disaster this season. I absolutely believe that Gibson at home is the correct call in this matchup. All things considered, this is a great price! | |||||||
06-25-19 | Royals v. Indians -205 | 8-6 | Loss | -205 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the Cleveland Indians. After a rain delay last night the Indians bounced back to take the series opener with the lowly Royals and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in this favorable matchup on the mound. I had a play on the Tribe in that one, part of my 6-1 Monday card. Cleveland has gone 15-6 in June thus far and it hands the ball to Shane Bieber (6-3, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs with eight K’s over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Rangers on Thursday. The visitors go with Glenn Sparkman (2-3, 3.62) who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Thursday. Key Trends: - Note though that the Royals are a terrible 6-13 this season as a road dog of +150 or higher. - Additionally note that Cleveland is 8-2 this year as a favorite of -200 or higher. The verdict: Sparkman’s been decent, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time vs. the surging Indians. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-25-19 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rangers/Tigers. The Rangers send veteran Jesse Chavez (2-2, 3.18 ERA) to the hill and he’s been efficient of late, posting a tiny 0.58 ERA over his past 21 appearances. Chavez faces a terrible Tigers team which has gone 8-27 since May 12th. The home side goes with Jordan Zimmermann (0-4, 6.03) who makes his second start since returning from injury. Zimmermann comes in with confidence here though as he’s 1-1 with a sharp 2.25 ERA in two career outings vs. the Rangers. Key Trends: - Texas has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 19 this season as a -110 favorite or higher. - Detroit has seen the total go under in 13 of 20 this year following a loss by four runs or more. The verdict: Chavez and Zimmermann battle deep and this one sneaks under the posted number; play the under! | |||||||
06-25-19 | Mets v. Phillies -148 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies blew out the Mets yesterday and I like the home side to duplicate the effort with another blowout performance here as well. Philadelphia won’t be taking anything for granted here after having previously lost seven in a row. The home side goes with Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.12 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits over six innings vs. the Nationals on Wednesday. The visitors counter with Will Lockett, who was called up from Triple A to replace the injured Noah Syndergaard (Lockett gave up five runs off six hits over two innings in a loss to the Cubs.) Key Trends: - New York now just 2-12 (-9 units) this season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - Philadelphia is now 16-8 (+4.8 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like Arrieta to easily out duel his over-matched counterpart and I look for the Phillies to build off yesterday’s break out performance at the plate. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-24-19 | Rockies -130 v. Giants | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Jon Gray (7-5, 4.18 ERA) gets the call for the Rockies and he’ll have a big opportunity to pad his win/loss record here vs. Giants’ volatile starter Drew Pomeranz (2-7, 7.09). Pomeranz has allowed four or more runs in five of his last ten starts, including seven in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. Colorado has struggled vs. Pomeranz in the past, but that was then and this is now. Colorado comes in focused on the task at hand after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. Key Trends: - Colorado is 15-5 this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. - San Fran is just 4-6 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I like Gray to easily out duel the “gas can” Pomeranz. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-24-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the D-Backs on the run-line. Yes, Zach Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA) has struggled vs. his former team, but he comes in on top form and I expect him to give Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85) everything he can handle. The Diamondbacks are three games under .500, while the Dodgers are 26 games over the .500 mark. Clearly Arizona won’t be lacking for motivation here. And neither will Greinke. Key Trends: - Arizona is 9-4 (+5.2 units) this year after a win by two runs or less. - The Diamondbacks are a money-making 19-15 (+5.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the run line! | |||||||
06-24-19 | Braves v. Cubs -115 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are the “hungrier” team here after dropping eight of their last 13. Atlanta comes in complacent after winning 13 of its last 16, including overcoming a four-run deficit to win 4-3 in ten-innings vs. the Nationals on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) and Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13) are a “wash,” I simply feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Braves, while the Cubs clearly can’t take anything for granted after their scuffling stretch. Key Trends: - Atlanta is just 7-9 this year as a road underdog. - Chicago is 23-12 as a home favorite this season. The verdict: All things considered a great price on the hungry home side. Lay it! | |||||||
06-24-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox -160 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Lucas Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) has been a bright spot for the White Sox this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Red Sox, who just lost two of three to the lowly Jays, counter with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (8-4. 4.71). Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four lifetime match ups vs. Chicago, while Giolito is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 6-9 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Boston is 9-4 as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range this year. The verdict: After their shoddy and disinterested performance vs. Toronto over the weekend, I expect the Red Sox to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-24-19 | Royals v. Indians -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. After a slow start to the 2019 campaign, the Tribe is rolling and I expect that momentum to carry over here in the opener of this three-game series. Cleveland is now seven games over .500 after posting a three-game sweep in two of its past three series. Cleveland won’t be taking anything for granted here either after KC posted a three-game sweep back on April 12th-14th. And that’s bade news for struggling Royals’ starter Brad Keller (3-9, 4.45 ERA), who is 0-4 over his past five starts, most recently getting shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the M’s on Wednesday. Cleveland counters with Adam Plutko (3-1, 4.55), who gave up two runs in a no-decision to the Rangers on Wednesday. Key Trends: - Kansas City is just 10-24 as a road dog this season. - The Royals are only 18-36 vs. right-handed starters this year. - Cleveland is 10-5 at home this year as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: I expect the home side to continue its hot run this favorable match up. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Jays/Yanks. Aaron Sanchez (3-9, 5.49 ERA) has struggled this year and since he’s returned from injury overall. He’s also struggled vs. the Yankees throughout his career. CC Sabathia (4-4, 4.14) though has had plenty of success vs. Toronto lifetime, going 18-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 35 match ups (Sabathia earned his 250th career win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. Tampa on Wednesday.) The Jays took two of three from Boston over the weekend and look primed for a predictable letdown at the plate here in my opinion (note that slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0 for 5 on Sunday and he’s hitting only .246 with 20 RBI’s over his first 48 games.) Key Trends: - Toronto has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 vs. southpaws. - NY has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 this year as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: I think Toronto takes a predictable step back offensively after its big series in Boston. This number is a little high, play the under! | |||||||
06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 10 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Mets/Phillies. Both Steven Matz (5-5, 4.28 ERA) and Zach Eflin (6-7, 2.83) have looked brilliant at times this year and pedestrian in others. Both the Mets and Phillies are in desperate need of victories and I think these teams will chase these suspect starters early. Philadelphia enters off a three game series loss vs. the lowly Marlins, while the Mets are just 37-41 after splitting a four-game series over the weekend with the Cubs, including a 5-3 loss yesterday. Eflin lost his second straight start last Wednesday, giving up three runs over six frames to the Nats. Matz also lost last Wednesday, getting shelled for five runs over five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Braves. Key Trends: - Eflin is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Mets. - Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA in seven starts vs. the Phillies. The verdict: The situation points to a “slug-fest” in the opener of this important series in my opinion, play the over! | |||||||
06-23-19 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/Dodgers. The Rockies go with Antonio Senzatela (6-5, 5.09 ERA), while the home side counters with Kenta Maeda (7-4, 3.87.) LA has taken the first two games of this series. The Dodgers are now 5-0 in the season series vs. Colorado. Maeda has struggled a bit of late, but a date vs. the Rockies is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that he’s 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 16 outings vs. them. Senzatela enters on top form, giving up one run over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Diamondbacks in his last trip to the hill. Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a road dog of +150 or higher. - LA has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 as a -200 favorite or higher. The verdict: I think these starters battle into the latter frames; this number is high, play the under! | |||||||
06-23-19 | Mets v. Cubs -114 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I like the Cubs to respond in the finale. The Mets go with Jacob deGrom (4-6, 3.26 ERA), while the home side counters with Cole Hamels (6-2, 2.85.) deGrom is an unremarkable 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in seven career starts vs. Chicago, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts at Wrigley Field. Chicago is still 26-14 at home this season. Hamels gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the White Sox most recently. Key Trends: - New York is just 12-20 (-11.9 units) in its last 32 after scoring nine or more runs. - Chicago is 12-3 (+8.7 units) this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I expect the hungry home side to come out aggressive and for deGrom’s struggles at Wrigley to continue. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-23-19 | Astros -117 v. Yankees | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Houston Astros. All good things must come to an end. The Yanks have won eight straight and I think they’ll finally take a step back here vs. the desperate Astros, who enter the finale of this four-game series on the other end of the spectrum after seven straight losses. The home side is complacent and the visitors are definitely hungry. I give a big nod to Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.59 ERA) over JA Happ (7-3, 4.59) as well. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in last six vs. the Yankees. Happ is 5-2 with a 3.46 ERA in nine career starts vs. Houston. Key Trends: - Houston is 16-6 (+6.7 units) this season vs. southpaws. The verdict: It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Happ or the Yankees right now, I just think that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here vs. Verlander and this desperate Astros team. All things considered, a great price! | |||||||
06-23-19 | Padres -135 v. Pirates | 10-11 | Loss | -135 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. I like the Padres to salvage the finale of this three-game series after dropping the first two. The Friars had won four straight before heading into this series and I think the Pirates have a predictable letdown here. The visitors turn to Joey Lucchesi (6-4, 3.74 ERA) to break the slide and he’ll be opposed by Steven Brault (3-1, 4.40.) Lucchesi enters on top form, having gone at least six innings in five of his past six starts (most recently went seven shutout innings in a 2-0 win over the Brewers.) Lucchesi is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two career outings vs. Pittsburgh. Brault has a 1.25 ERA over his past four starts, but note that he owns a poor 5.68 ERA in four career relief appearances vs. San Diego. Key Trends: - The Padres are still a profitable 16-11 (+6 units) in all “day” games this year. - The Pirates are just 7-11 vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: San Diego comes in focused and hungry. Pittsburgh comes in flat and content. This one has “blowout” written all over it, so lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-23-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Jays/Red Sox. Boston came from behind to win Game 1 of this series and then Toronto returned the favor in last night’s come from behind 6-5 victory. While the first two games have produced a copious amount of offense, I think the finale sets up as more of a lower-scoring “duel.” The Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (4-9, 3.23 ERA) who already has a victory over the Red Sox this year, holding them to one run with four K’s over six frames at home back on May 21st (Stroman is 5-3 with a respectable 3.70 ERA lifetime vs. Boston.) The home side counters with Rick Porcello (5-6, 4.31) who went seven scoreless vs. the Twins on Monday. Note that Porcello has a 3.31 ERA over his last 11 starts. Key Trends: - Toronto has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 14 as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - Boston has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 25 when the total in the game is set at either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: Expect the finale of this series to dominated by these hungry starting pitchers. This number is high, play the under! | |||||||
06-22-19 | White Sox v. Rangers -183 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Texas Rangers. I think the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price, as I’m expecting a decisive beatdown from start to finish in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Odrisamer Despaigne (0-2, 8.71 ERA), while the Rangers go with Lance Lynn (8-4, 4.16.) Lynn is 6-2 with a 3.17 ERA over his last ten starts, most recently allowing one run with nine K’s and zero walks over seven innings in a win over the Tribe on Monday. Note as well that in seven career outings vs. Chicago he’s 3-1 with a tiny 2.49 ERA. The Rangers will be out to avenge last night’s 5-4, ten inning loss as well. Despaigne most recently allowed seven runs over four innings in a loss to the Yankees. Key Trends: - The White Sox just 4-7 this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range. - The Rangers are 11-5 as a home favorite. The verdict: Look for Lynn to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-22-19 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Rockies/Dodgers. Clearly this pick isn’t based up on the Dodgers’ Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-1, 1.26 ERA), who is 6-0 with a 0.87 ERA over his last seven starts (it’s interesting to note though that Ryu is just 4-6 with a 4.97 ERA in ten starts vs. the Rockies lifetime.) I think that Rockies’ rookie right-hander Peter Lambert (2-0, 6.00) though will struggle in this difficult road venue. This is just Lambert’s fourth career start. Key Trends: - The Rockies have seen the total go over the number in 17 of 28 vs. the division already this season. - The Dodgers have seen the total fly over the number in 16 of their last 26 vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: Look for this one to sneak over this tiny number; play the over! | |||||||
06-22-19 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 8-4 | Loss | -113 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the under Orioles/Mariners. Whoever the Mariners open with in the first inning (Gerson Bautista most likely), they’ll then quickly make way for Tommy Milone (1-1, 3.03 ERA), while the visitors go with Andrew Cashner (6-3, 4.48.) The Mariners came from behind to win 10-9 last night, but I expect a much lower-scoring “duel” on Saturday afternoon. The Orioles were without leading hitter Trey Mancini in yesterday’s loss and his continued absence is going to be felt here in my opinion. Note as well that Milone is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA in six appearances vs. the Orioles, while Cashner has a 4.01 ERA vs. the Mariners over 11 lifetime appearances. Key Trends: - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 21 after playing three or more consecutive road games. The verdict: After last night’s “slug-fest,” expect this one to stay well under once it’s all said and done! | |||||||
06-22-19 | Padres -115 v. Pirates | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the San Diego Padres. The Padres have lost four straight in this series after last night’s series opening 2-1 loss. Enough is enough! I like the Friars to finally bounce back here and find a way to get the job done on Saturday afternoon. The Padres turn to Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.15 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Archer (3-6, 5.85). Since coming off the IL in May Archer has gone a terrible 2-4 with a 6.93 ERA over seven starts (note that Archer has been clobbered for 15 homers over his past nine trips to the hill.) Paddack has cooled off considerably since his hot start to the 2019 campaign, but I still give him the nod over his “gas can” counterpart. Key Trends: - Note that SD is 15-9 (+7 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous outing - Pittsburgh is just 8-13 (-2.3 units) after scoring two runs or less. Look for the revenge minded visiting side to get the job done here. The verdict: I look for the revenge minded visiting side to stop the slide in this series; all things considered, this is a great price! | |||||||
06-22-19 | Mets v. Cubs -140 | 10-2 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. The Mets came from behind to steal last night’s game, but I think the home side will bounce back on Saturday afternoon. New York’s Zach Wheeler (5-5, 4.94 ERA) goes up against Chicago’s Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.87). Wheeler enters having lost two straight, most recently getting shelled for five runs over six innings vs. the Braves (note that Wheeler has now allowed 14 runs in that span.) Quintana is 0-5 with a 4.30 ERA since his last victory in early May, but he looked decent in his last outing vs. the high-powered Dodgers, allowing two runs over six innings. Finally note that Wheeler is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts vs. the Cubs, while Quintana is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts vs. the Mets. Key Trends: - New York is just 2-12 (-9 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Chicago is 12-2 (+10 units) this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: I love Quintana to out duel his clearly struggling counterpart here and I look for the Cubs to answer after yesterday’s setback. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-21-19 | Orioles v. Mariners -163 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Seattle Mariners. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Veteran hurler Mike Leake. The M’s veteran is 6-6 with a 4.14 ERA this year, but he enters on top form having posted four straight quality starts, with three victories in that span. Leake is auditioning for a future new team, as he’ll be moved before the trade deadline. Whoever the Orioles start today, Leake is my “key angle” for this particular contest. Key Trends: - Baltimore is just 12-25 on the road. - Seattle is still 86-66 the L2 years in all games as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Look for Leake to continue his progression with another big performance in front of the home town crowd. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-21-19 | Twins v. Royals +141 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Kansas City Royals. Yes the Twins have been a big surprise this year, but the Royals won’t be rolling over here after last night’s 4-1 win. I think the home side now carries that momentum/confidence over into this one. The Twins’ Martin Perez (7-3, 4.09 ERA) has had success vs. the Royals in the past, but he enters having gone four straight starts without a victory. The home side counters with Jakob Junis (4-6, 5.33) and he’ll be looking to keep the good times rolling for KC, which enters having won four of its last five, including two in a row over Minnesota, which has lost four of its last five. The verdict: These teams are moving in opposite directions now and I look for those trends to continue on Friday night. Play on the Royals! | |||||||
06-20-19 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Giants/Dodgers. Madison Bumgarner (3-6, 3.87 ERA) gets ready to square off against Jose Urias (3-2, 3.05) at Chavez Ravine on Thursday night and in my opinion, this total is a little low. Bumgarner is expected to be shipped out from San Fran finally by the end of July; note that he’s just 2-4 with a 4.85 ERA in all “night” games this year. Urias makes a spot start in place of Walker Buehler; Urias has a 1.76 ERA on the road and a 4.01 ERA at home this season. Key Trends: - San Francisco has seen the total go over in nine of its last 12 as an underdog of +150 or higher. - LA has seen the total soar over in seven of nine this year when the total in the contest is set at 7 or less. The verdict: The Giants won’t be going down without a fight here; look for this one to eclipse the posted number, sooner rather than later! | |||||||
06-20-19 | Rays v. A's +100 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Oakland A’s. The Rays have lost seven of nine and despite sending Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.37 ERA) to the hill, I believe their slide continues here vs. talented A’s starter Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.85.) Note that Oakland has won six of its last eight. Morton’s 21-game unbeaten streak is now history as well after falling 5-3 to the Angels last Saturday. Montas comes in on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.77 ERA over his past eight starts. Key Trends: - Tampa is just 4-6 in its last ten after a loss by eight runs or more. - Oakland is 11-6 at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I think Morton takes another step back here; all things considered a great price on the hungry home side! | |||||||
06-20-19 | Twins -170 v. Royals | 1-4 | Loss | -170 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. The Twins’ Jake Odorizzi (10-2, 2.24 ERA) is on fire this year and I think he carries that positive momentum over into this favorable road matchup. Glenn Sparkman (1-3, 4.01) gets the nod for the Royals. The Twins though have won 11 consecutive games started by Odorrizzi and while he’s struggled against the Royals in the past, clearly that was then and this is now. Sparkman is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in five career outings vs. the Twins. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 12-2 this year as a road favorite of -110 or higher. - Kansas City is just 8-16 as a home underdog this season. The verdict: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I think that this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-20-19 | Reds v. Brewers -135 | 7-1 | Loss | -135 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. I played on the Reds yesterday in their upset win at home over the Astros. I also played against Milwaukee in its upset loss to the Padres. I believe the Reds though, who have now won four straight, will take a step back here vs. this suddenly desperate Brewers team which has lost three straight and four of its last five. Tanner Roark (4-6, 3.63 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he’s 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA over his past three outings. The hungry home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 10.29), who makes his third start of the year. These pitchers are a “wash,” but I feel the difference comes in the number/trends as well. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is still just 7-15 this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Milwaukee is still 13-7 at home this year as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I think the “hungry” home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. Lay it! | |||||||
06-20-19 | Angels -150 v. Blue Jays | 5-7 | Loss | -150 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Angels. With a chance to sweep this four-game series, I look for the streaking Angels to lay the hammer down here. The visitors go with Jose Suarez (2-1, 4.50 ERA), while the home side goes with Clayton Richard (0-3, 7.52). Mike Trout had two home runs in yesterday’s 11-6 victory and he now has 11 over his last 19 games (Trout has a career .631 slugging average at the Rogers Centre.) The verdict: I think Suarez, who earned a win on the road in Tampa last time out, is the correct call in this matchup. Richard has been a complete “gas can,” which clearly doesn’t bode well facing the red hot Trout and company. I’m banking on another blowout, lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-19-19 | Giants +213 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Francisco Giants. I had a play on the Dodgers on the “run line” last night, but I think the Giants and Drew Pomeranz offer great value at this price to steal this one. Pomeranz (2-6, 6.43 ERA) faced the Dodgers on June 7th and he went five scoreless, holding them to just three hits. San Francisco went on to win that game 2-1. He’ll be opposed by LA’s Rich Hill (4-1, 2.60) who gave up three runs off seven hits in a 5-3 win over the Cubs last Friday. Key Trends: - LA may have a whopping 16.5 game lead over San Francisco in the NL West standings, but note that the Dodgers are just 6-5 in this season series thus far. The verdict: I think Pomeranz continues his steady overall progression with another strong performance vs. LA; play on the Giants! | |||||||
06-19-19 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 2-8 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Royals/Mariners. Brad Keller (3-8, 3.97 ERA) of the Royals squares off against Marco Gonzales (7-6, 4.50) of the Mariners to open this one. Kansas City has taken the first two games of this three game series. KC won the opener 6-4 and then 9-0 last night. Keller just went seven scoreless vs. the Twins on Friday (over his last three starts spanning 22 innings he’s posted a tiny 2.04 ERA.) Gonzales comes in on top form as well, having won two straight after losing six in a row. Key Trends: - KC has seen the total go under the number in 11 of 15 already this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Seattle has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven when trying to revenge two straight home losses vs. an opponent. The verdict: The Mariners’ offense doesn’t catch a break here facing the red hot Keller. I also expect Gonzales to carry over his recent performance. This one has “duel” written al over it, play the under! | |||||||
06-19-19 | Rays -119 v. Yankees | 1-12 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. I think Blake Snell (4-5, 3.70 ERA) will help the Rays avoid the three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees. New York won the first game 3-0, and then Tuesday’s contest 6-3. Tampa won’t be lacking for motivation here as it’s lost six of its last eight. Snell is just 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA over his past seven starts, but note that he’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of those outings. New York goes with CC Sabathia (3-4, 4.42) who is 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA since his last victory in mid May. Key Trends: - Tampa is 14-7 as a -125 or higher road favorite this season already. - The Yanks are a sub-par 7-9 (-6.4 units) vs. southpaws this year. The verdict: Look for the hungry Rays to jump on Sabathia early and expect Snell to go deep. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-18-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Dodgers run-line. I think LA bounces back big after yesterday’s upset loss. Tyler Beede looked good for San Francisco, but I don’t think that Shaun Anderson (2-1, 3.97 ERA) will fair as well today. Anderson has been decent no doubt, most recently holding the Friars to two runs over six innings on June 12th. Anderson’s been good, but Dodgers’ veteran Clayton Kershaw (6-1, 3.13) has been great this year; note that he’s gone at least six innings in every start this year and at least seven in five of 11 (note as well that Kershaw is 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA in 3330 1/3’s innings vs. San Fran lifetime.) Key Trends: - San Francisco is just 8-13 vs. southpaws this season. - LA is 24-6 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season. - The Dodgers are 9-2 this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick em price! | |||||||
06-18-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/D-Backs. It’s interesting to note that Arizona is the only team in the majors with an above .500 record, but with a losing record at home (14-16.) The D-Backs kick-off a nine-game home stand tonight. Colorado is 5-2 so far in the season series, but this is the first time the teams will have met in Phoenix. The Rockies just combined for 92 runs in a four-game series with the Padres and I think that the shift in venue will lead to a letdown in production at the plate. The home side goes with Merrill Kelly (7-6, 3.73 ERA) on the mound tonight and he enters on fire, having allowed two runs over his past three starts spanning 22 1/3’s innings of work. The visitors go with Antonio Senzatela (5-5, 5.48), who faced the D-Backs on May 28th and would give up two runs over six innings. Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Arizona has seen the total dip under in seven of ten at home already this season when the total is either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: After their historic run production over the weekend, I think Colorado’s bats “cool off” in this difficult matchup. This number is high, play the under! | |||||||
06-18-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 6-0 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Marlins/Cards. Marlins rookie Jordan Yamamoto (1-0, 0.00 ERA) made his MLB debut at home vs. the Cards last week and he’d strike out five and go seven scoreless. I think there’s only one way Yamamoto’s performance can go in his second start though and I believe the rookie will indeed struggle in this difficult road venue. The home side sees Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.28) toe the slab; he most recently was shelled for four runs over five innings vs. the Mets on Thursday. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range. - St. Louis has seen the total soar over in eight of 13 this season after allowing three runs or less in two straight. The verdict: The book is still out on Yamamoto and I have a hard time seeing the rookie duplicating his debut performance. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over! | |||||||
06-18-19 | Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Red Sox/Twins. Two veteran hurlers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one on Tuesday and everything points to a classic “duel” in my opinion. The visitors go with their best pitcher in David Price (4-2, 3.52 ERA), while the home side goes with Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.04). Minnesota was actually shut out for the first time this season in last night’s 2-0 loss (snapping a 14-game home win streak.) Note as well that Price is 10-4 with a minuscule 2.62 ERA in 18 career games vs. the Twins. Pineda owns a 4.13 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Boston. Pineda has been much better of late and he’s now allowed three runs or fewer over six straight starts. Key Trends: - Boston has seen the total go under in six of seven as a road dog this season already. - Minnesota has seen the total dip under in five of six already this season at home when the total is set at either 10 or 10.5. The verdict: The writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards. This number is a little high, play the under! | |||||||
06-18-19 | Mets -114 v. Braves | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. Two pitchers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one Tuesday night. Jacob deGrom (3-6, 3.38 ERA) gets the nod for the Mets and he’ll be opposed by the Braves’ Julio Teheran (5-4, 2.92). deGrom has a 2.29 ERA over his last three starts and over 116 career innings vs. the Braves he has a minuscule 1.86 ERA. Teheran has had success vs. the Mets in the past and he’s in fine form currently, but the numbers point to a letdown here for the surging home side. Key Trends: - The Mets are 11-4 (+6.6 units) already this year after having lost five or six of their last seven games. - The Braves are 5-8 in their last 13 off a win by eight runs or more vs. a division rival. The verdict: I think the “hungrier” team rallies behind its ace. Great value on deGrom and the Mets on Tuesday night! | |||||||
06-17-19 | Astros v. Reds -114 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Cincinnati Reds. This is an interesting interleague series and an interesting head-to-head matchup on the mound in the opener. The Astros’ Wade Miley (6-3, 3.14 ERA) will be opposed by the Reds’ Luis Castillo (6-1, 2.20). Houston has been getting production at the plate of late despite key injuries to its line-up. Miley has been “on point” of late as well, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Orioles on Monday. The Reds won’t be lacking for motivation here after losing six of their last nine. Cincinnati though has hope with Castillo on the hill; he most recently allowed one run over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Indians. The verdict: I’m throwing the trends out the window on this play. I think Miley is going to struggle in this NL format and I believe Castillo takes advantage of this Astros line-up that’s over-achieving at the plate. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Reds! | |||||||
06-17-19 | Astros v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Astros/Reds. This is an interesting interleague series and an interesting head-to-head matchup on the mound in the opener. The Astros’ Wade Miley (6-3, 3.14 ERA) will be opposed by the Reds’ Luis Castillo (6-1, 2.20). Houston has been getting production at the plate of late despite key injuries to its line-up. Miley has been “on point” of late as well, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Orioles on Monday. The Reds won’t be lacking for motivation here after losing six of their last nine. Cincinnati though has hope with Castillo on the hill; he most recently allowed one run over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Indians. Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven interleague road games as an underdog in the -105 to -145 range. - The Reds have seen the total dip below the posted number in five of their last seven at home as a favorite in the -105 to -150 range. The verdict: I think Miley and Castillo will fight deep into the latter frames and as a result, I look for this total to stay well under once it’s all said and done! | |||||||
06-16-19 | Cubs +188 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Cubs. Clearly that’s not many negative things you can say about Hyun Jin Ryu. Ryu (9-1, 1.60 ERA) has arguably been the best pitcher in the World over the last year and a half. I simply think that Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.89) is going to be able to match patch for him inning for inning. And in my opinion, that swings the value in favor of the hungry underdog, which I expect to build off last night’s come from behind victory. The verdict: All good things must come to an end. I think that the Cubs offer great value to steal this Sunday nighter. Play on Chicago! | |||||||
06-16-19 | Brewers -133 v. Giants | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Giants have won four straight and they’re 5-2 on their current home stand following last night’s come from behind 8-7 win in which they uncharacteristically belted out 15 hits. Can anyone say letdown spot? I think the Giants do indeed come back down to Earth here facing the Brewers’ Chase Anderson (3-1, 3.80 ERA). Note that Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts at San Francisco as well. The home side counters with Jeff Samardizja (3-5, 3.72) who is just 1-4 over his last five starts. Note that The Shark is only 3-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 26 career appearances vs. Milwaukee. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is still 16-8 (+7.6 units) this year in all day games. - San Francisco is just 11-18 (-5.4 units) this season in all day contests. The verdict: I like the hard-hitting Brewers to bounce back and I expect the Giants to suffer a predictable letdown. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-16-19 | Padres v. Rockies -135 | 14-13 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. This is the finale of a four-game series. Both teams go with rookie pitchers tonight. The home side goes with Peter Lambert (2-0, 1.50 ERA), while the visitors go with Nick Margevicius (2-6, 5.02). Colorado bounced back from a 16-12 loss on Friday, for a convincing 14-8 win yesterday and I believe this is a matchup which favors the home side. Lambert has looked sharp in a starters role, facing the Cubs twice and holding them to one run over seven innings in the first matchup and then one run over five frames on Tuesday. Key Trends: - San Diego is still just 6-13 (-3.7 units) this season as an underdog on the +125 to +175 range. - The Rockies are 19-7 (+10.1 units) this year as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I think Margevicius struggles in this difficult road venue. All things considered, a great price on the home side. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-16-19 | Cardinals -113 v. Mets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis has taken two of three, but the Mets bounce back in yesterday’s 8-7 win. I like St. Louis to bounce back in the finale though and secure the series. The visitors go with Dakota Hudson (5-3, 3.47 ERA), while the home side counters with Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.68). Both pitchers have been sharp of late, but note that the over-achieving Vargas is just 1-2 with a 4.99 ERA in six career appearances vs. St. Louis, while Hudson won his lone start vs. the Mets on April 21st, allowing three runs over six innings. Key Trends: - St. Louis is a fantastic 8-2 (+5.8 units) still this season on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - The Mets are just 10-13 (-4.2 units) in all “day” games this year. The verdict: I think Vargas takes a step back against an opponent he’s had plenty of difficulties with in the past. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-16-19 | Pirates v. Marlins +100 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins. After breaking their seven-game losing streak with an 11-0 win on Friday, the Pirates predictably came back down to Earth on Saturday and fell 4-3. I think the Marlins now find a way to get the job done in the series finale. Chris Archer (3-6, 5.73 ERA) gets the nod for the Bucs, while the Fish hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (3-6, 3.67). Archer has been terrible on the road, going 0-3 with an 8.71 ERA in four starts. Alcantara is 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts and 2-4 with a 3.25 ERA in seven starts at home. The verdict: Archer’s been terrible on the road and it’s hard to imagine him suddenly “flipping a switch” here. Alcantara on the other hand has pitched much better than what his win/loss record would indicate. All things considered, I believe this is fantastic line value on the superior pitcher. Play on the Fish! | |||||||
06-15-19 | Phillies +105 v. Braves | Top | 6-5 | Win | 105 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Great spot bet. Great value. All on Philadelphia, as Atlanta is making Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59 ERA) make his first start since April 13th. This is a major factor working in favor of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58) who is 8-3 with a 2.05 ERA in 13 career starts vs. Atlanta. Key Trends: - The Phillies are 9-1 (+7.5 units) this year after allowing nine or more runs. - The Braves are just 5-7 (-3.7 units) this season after allowing eight or more runs. The verdict: In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Phillies! | |||||||
06-15-19 | Brewers v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Brewers/Giants. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Suspect starting pitching. The Brewers hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (0-1, 12.00 ERA), while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner (3-6, 3.83). Nelson gave up five runs off four hits over three innings in a home loss to Miami in his lone start this year. Nelson is a poor 2-2 with a ballooned 5.28 ERA in five career outings vs. SF (Nelson has a shot at a victory today though based entirely upon his team’s offense though, which puts up 5.09 RPG.) Bumgarner is an unremarkable 1-2 with a 4.01 ERA in seven starts at home this year. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go over in three of four already this year in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent when it was a favorite. - San Francisco has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 14 after a win by two runs or less. The verdict: I’m expecting these veteran hurlers to get the hook early and I believe that will help result in pushing this total well above the posted number! | |||||||
06-14-19 | Brewers -140 v. Giants | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Brewers. Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 7.16 ERA) comes in off an admittedly great start, going five scoreless in a victory over the Dodgers (going head-to-head with Kershaw!) But Pomeranz owns a terrible 8.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the Brewers. Zack Davies (7-0, 2.41) comes in off a no-decision, but he owns a sharp 1.64 ERA vs. the Giants over two career starts. Key Trends: - Milwaukee is 17-9 vs. teams with losing records this year. - San Francisco is only 9-14 as a home dog this season. The verdict: The Brewers lead the NL in dingers, while the Giants are dead last in that category. All things considered, I feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers! | |||||||
06-14-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Dodgers. Two red hot veteran hurlers collide on Friday night and I think that runs will be hard to come by in this one. The Cubs go with Kyle Hendricks (7-4, 3.00 ERA), while the home side goes with Rich Hill (3-1, 2.40). Chicago lost 7-4 in last night’s opener, but this one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion. Hendricks though enters on top form, having gone 3-0 over his last three starts, while posting a tiny 1.99 ERA over his last eight trips to the hill. Hill hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his last five starts. Key Trends: - Chicago has seen the total go under in four of five after a loss by four runs or more. - LA has seen the total dip under in 24 of its last 39 following a victory. The verdict: Look for these two red hot pitchers to battle deep and for this total to fall under once it’s all said and done! | |||||||
06-14-19 | Blue Jays +229 v. Astros | 2-15 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. I think the home side is over-priced here considering the injury list to its sluggers (Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, George Springer and Max Stassi all out for the Astros.) The home side goes with Gerrit Cole (5-5, 3.72 ERA) who has been sharp overall this year, but who I believe is in the wrong place at the wrong time. The visitors counter with Aaron Sanchez (3-7, 4.25), who is 3-1 with a 3.66 ERA in five appearances vs. Houston. The verdict: Toronto rookie right-fielder Cavan Biggio recorded his first career multi home run game Thursday in his team’s 12-3 win at Baltimore and I believe he and his team carry that momentum over here vs. his father’s former club. Upset in the making here! | |||||||
06-14-19 | Pirates v. Marlins -113 | 11-0 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins. This is the opener of a three-game set between cellar dwellers. The Marlins broke a six-game slide with a win over St. Louis last time out. Pittsburgh enters having lost seven straight (overall the Pirates are just 6-18 in their last 24.) The visitors hand the ball to Steven Brault (2-1, 5.05 ERA) who has looked decent of late by posting a 1.72 ERA over his last three starts. The home side counters with Trevor Richards (3-6, 3.31) who is 3-1 with a 1.74 ERA over his last five starts and who owns a solid 3.17 ERA in 20 career starts at home. Key Trends: - Pirates are 0-7 in their last seven on the road. - The Fish are 5-2 in their last seven home games vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: The Marlins are also 4-1 in Richards’ last five starts. All things considered, I believe this is great line value on the home side! | |||||||
06-14-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under D-Backs/Nats. Two great pitchers go head to head in this one. Everything points to a “duel” in my opinion. Arizona scored the 5-0 victory last night and I believe runs will be at a premium for both clubs this evening. The Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.54 ERA) has struggled with the Nationals in the past, but he enters on top form, most recently giving up two runs with ten K’s over six innings in a win over Toronto. The home side hands the ball to ace Max Scherzer (4-5, 2.83) who enters off a gem vs. the Padres on Saturday, going seven scoreless (note that Scherzer is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, three walks and 30 K’s over his last 21 innings, spanning a three start stretch.) Scherzer is also 29-21 with a 2.91 ERA in 72 career starts at Nationals Park. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go under in 20 of its last 30 following a victory. - Washington has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: I think Ray and Scherzer will battle deep into this one. Play the under! | |||||||
06-12-19 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -139 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -139 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. This is the rubber match of a three-game set and I think the home side will build off yesterday’s 7-4 victory. Scott Kingery had two home runs yesterday for Philadelphia and he’s now hitting .324 on the season with ten doubles, one triple, seven homers and 18 RBI’s. The home side hands the ball to Zach Eflin (6-5, 2.88 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Reds last Friday. In two career starts vs. the D-Backs, Eflin owns a respectable 3.86 ERA. The D-Backs had won five in a row before yesterday’s setback and I thick they’re primed for another letdown here as well. The visitors go with Merrill Kelly (6-6, 4.12) who has looked decent of late, but who I think is simply in the wrong lace at the wrong time here. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 14-18 (-2.7 units) this year following a loss. - Philadelphia is 23-11 as a favorite at home. - The Phillies are 20-15 in their last 35 following a victory. The verdict: I like Eflin to continue his strong run at home and to help his team score the series victory. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-11-19 | Padres -145 v. Giants | 5-6 | Loss | -145 | 32 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Padres. Chris Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he hasn’t been at his best over his last two starts, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.15) is coming off a decent outing, giving up one run over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Fish on May 30th, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Key Trends: - San Diego is 9-6 (+3 units) already this year after two or more consecutive losses. - San Francisco is only 11-20 at home. - The Giants are a poor 19-25 vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: Expect Paddack to go deep and for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night! | |||||||
06-11-19 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the over Padres/Giants. Chris Paddack (4-4, 2.97 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he hasn’t been at his best over his last two starts, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.15) is coming off a decent outing, giving up one run over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Fish on May 30th, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Key Trends: - San Diego has seen the total go over the number in four of five this year as a road favorite. - The Padres have seen the total soar over in 12 of 18 this year in all games when the total is either 8 or 8.5. - San Francisco has seen the total go over in both games it’s played in so far this year off two straight home losses vs. a division rival. The verdict: Two hungry teams. This number is low, play the over! | |||||||
06-11-19 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 14 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Tigers/Royals. The Royals have gone a disappointing 0-14-2 in the past 16 in this series. So far Detroit is 5-1 at home vs. the Royals, but this is the first time the teams will meet in Kansas City. Detroit won’t be lacking for motivation here though either after losing three straight series itself. Detroit goes with Spencer Turnbull (3-5, 3.01 ERA), while the home side goes with Jakob Junis (4-6, 5.63.) Turnbull has faced KC twice already this year and has given up three earned runs over 13 innings. Note that Junis is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA vs. Detroit in eight starts vs. Detroit. Key Trends: - Detroit has seen the total go under the number in six of seven this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - Kansas City has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 this season vs. clubs with losing records. The verdict: Both teams enter off blowout losses. I expect these pitchers to battle deep and for the opener of this series to fall well below the posted number. Play the under! | |||||||
06-11-19 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +102 | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. Toronto has lost 14 of its last 17 and it’s hitting just .161 with RISP over its last 112 at bats. Toronto hands the ball to Trent Thorton (1-4, 4.73 ERA), who will be opposed by Baltimore’s John Means (5-4, 2.67.) Means has been “on fire” for a while now and I expect him to carry that momentum over here in this favorable spot (note that Means is 4-3 with a 2.77 ERA over his last nine starts.) Key Trends: - Toronto is a terrible 6-12 vs. the division. - The Blue Jays are only 11-20 on the road. - The Orioles are 44-30 (+7.1 unit) in their last 77 home games with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Considering the form of these starters and line-ups, I think that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Orioles! | |||||||
06-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under D-Backs/Phillies. The Diamondbacks exploded for a franchise record eight home runs in yesterday’s 13-8 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice here. The D-Backs go with Jon Duplantier (1-0, 3.27 ERA) and he’s gone at least five innings in his first two starts. Philadelphia looks to snap a two-game slide by handing the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-5, 4.29) who has struggled over his last two starts, but who will look to rebound vs. Arizona, a club in which he’s gone a sharp 4-3 with a 2.33 ERA in nine career appearances against. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 after two or more straight victories. - Philadelphia has seen the total go under in six of its last eight at home when the total is either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: I like these starters to battle deep and after yesterday’s slug-fest, I look for this total to fall under once it’s all said and done! | |||||||
06-10-19 | Cardinals v. Marlins +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -150 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Marlins run line. Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for St. Louis, while the visitors go with Michael Wacha (3-2, 6.30.) Alcantara comes in on top form, having allowed just one run over his past two starts, posting a tiny 0.69 ERA over his last 13 innings of work. Wacha’s had success vs. the Fish in the past, but he’s been terrible overall this year, actually losing his spot in the rotation after allowing seven runs to the Royals on May 22nd. Key Trends: - St. Louis is just 3-7 (-6.3 units) this season after scoring one run or less. - Miami is already 3-2 (+4.4 units) this year after three straight losses vs. a division rival. The verdict: These starters are moving in opposite directions and the Marlins have been playing much better as team overall as well. In a contest which see being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on the Marlins on the run line! | |||||||
06-09-19 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under A’s/Rangers. Texas won 10-5 and 3-1 in yesterday’s double header. I think that Sunday’s game sets up as more of a “duel” as well. The visitors hand the ball to Frankie Montas (7-2, 2.83 ERA), who has gone 3-0 over his last six starts, most recently going six scoreless in a 4-2 win over the Angels on Tuesday (note as well that all three victories have been on the road.) Overall Montas is a solid 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in five games, including two starts, vs. Texas in his career. Drew Smyly (1-4, 7.93) has been a disaster for the Rangers this year, but he catches a break here facing this “on again, off again” A’s offense. Key Trends: - Oakland has seen the total dip under the number in 11 of 17 vs. teams with winning records this season. - Texas has seen the total go under in 16 of 19 this year after two or more consecutive victories. The verdict: I like Montas to go deep and for this total to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done! | |||||||
06-09-19 | Diamondbacks -142 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Toronto won two of three over the Yanks earlier in the week, but it’s dropped the first two games of this interleague contest and I think that the D-Backs lay the hammer down in the finale as well. Arizona has won 8-2 and 6-0 so far and I predict another lop-sided destruction here as well. Robbie Ray (4-3, 3.62 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Clayton Richard (0-1, 3.55.) Ray has lost two straight, despite allowing only three runs over seven innings to the Dodgers on Monday. Ray is also 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last five road starts. Richard faced Arizona three times last year and he’d go 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA. Key Trends: - Arizona is already 11-7 (+4 units) this year after a win by four runs or more. - Toronto is a terrible 1-5 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range already this season. The verdict: I think Ray has a big advantage in this match-up and I like the D-Backs to carry over their recent momentum at the plate in this favorable matchup. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-08-19 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Nats/Padres. Last night’s game ended up going “over” the number in the Padres walk off 5-4 victory, but I expect much more of a “duel” on Saturday. Max Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) is 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA in ten starts vs. the Friars. Eric Lauer (5-4, 4.18) is faced the Nats twice (both no decisions) and has posted a tiny 2.31 ERA. Lauer in fact comes in on top form, having allowed just five runs with three walks and 17 K’s over his last four starts (which equals to a 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP.) Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two straight one run losses. - San Diego has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 17 after two straight wins by two runs or less. The verdict: After last night’s “slug-fest,” expect these competent hurlers to go deep. This number is high, play the under! | |||||||
06-08-19 | Nationals -144 v. Padres | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Max Scherzer (3-5, 3.06 ERA) is 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA in ten starts vs. the Friars. Eric Lauer (5-4, 4.18) is faced the Nats twice (both no decisions) and has posted a tiny 2.31 ERA. But after dropping the first two games of this series, I think Washington responds finally in this important contest. And the numbers/trends support that! Key Trends: - Washington is 49-31 (+9 units) after two or more consecutive losses. - San Diego is still 47-84 (-15.5 units) the L2 years as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: Lauer’s been great of late, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Lay the reasonable mid-sized price! | |||||||
06-08-19 | Cardinals +100 v. Cubs | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals. The Cards came into this series sitting 2.5 games back of the Cubs. The Cards lost yesterday’s opener 3-1, but I think they’ll bounce back on Saturday night. The home side goes with the volatile Jon Lester (4-4, 3.32 ERA), while the visitors go with Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.76.) Flaherty may be only 1-2 in six games vs. the Cubs, but he sports a very respectable 3.70 ERA in those contests. Yes Lester is 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA in 18 career starts vs. St. Louis, but I think he’ll have a hard time following in Cole Hamel’s footsteps. Key Trends: - St. Louis is still 6-1 (+5. units) this year on the road with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. - The Cardinals are already 5-1 (+4.1 units) this year after scoring four runs or less in three straight games (and 40-15 in the same position over the L2 years.) - Chicago is a money-burning 11-11 (-2.2 units) this season vs. the division. The verdict: I think the revenge minded Cardinals bounce back in this important game! | |||||||
06-08-19 | Dodgers -200 v. Giants | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the LA Dodgers. The Giants won 2-1 as a massive underdog last night, but I think LA bounces back in this favorable pitching match-up on Saturday night. The home side goes with Jeff Samardzija (3-4, 3.61 ERA) who had a decent start to open June after a terrible May. The Shark has a 1-4, 3.59 ERA lifetime record vs. the Dodgers over nine appearances. Rich Hill (2-1, 2.25) gets the nod for the visitors and he enters off a gem, limiting the Phillies to no runs over seven innings with nine K’s on Sunday (note that Hill is 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA in 14 career starts against San Francisco as well.) Key Trends: - LA is 13-7 (+2.2 units) this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - San Francisco is just 7-12 (-2.9 units) this year as a home underdog. - The Giants are a poor 7-12 vs. southpaws this season. The verdict: Look for Hill to easily out duel the volatile Samardzija and lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-08-19 | Rockies v. Mets UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/Mets. I had a big underdog play on the Rockies last night and they came through with the 5-1 victory. I think another “duel” is in order on Saturday night between Steven Matz (4-4, 3.97 ERA) for the Mets, vs. Jon Gray (5-4, 4.11) for the Rockies. Matz looks to bounce back after after allowing five runs over six innings in a loss to the D-Backs, while Gray earned the win over the Blue Jays last time out, going seven scoreless. Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go under in four of five already this season after allowing two runs or less over two straight games. - The Mets have seen the total dip under in four of five already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5. The verdict: These pitchers have struggled vs. their respective opponents tonight in the past, but I think the stage is set for a “duel” finally. This number is a little high, play the under! | |||||||
06-07-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Giants on the run line. Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 8.08 ERA) goes for the home side. Clearly he won’t be lacking for motivation as he tries to turn his career around tonight. Clayton Kershaw (5-0, 3.20) gets the nod for the visiting side, as the crafty veteran continues to find ways to win despite not being the same pitcher he was three or four years ago. But note that LA has an OPS that is 52 points lower vs. southpaws than righties this season, which sets up well for the focused Pomeranz (note as well that Pomeranz faced the Dodgers in his season opener and gave up only two runs over six innings.) The verdict: Bruce Bochy’s team won’t be in the playoffs this year, but I think it rallies in the opener of this one. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I’m going to lay the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on the Giants on the run line! | |||||||
06-07-19 | Rockies +178 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 178 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on on the Colorado Rockies. I’ve made a play on the Mets in each of their last two games (both wins,) but I think the home side takes a step back here despite sending its ace to the hill. Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.49 ERA) goes for the home side, while the visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (4-4, 5.33.) Note though that New York is just 9-16 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Colorado comes in on top form. The Rockies opened the year by going 3-12, but Colorado has since gone 29-17, including 13-11 vs. clubs with a record of .500 or better. Key Trends: - Colorado is 15-11 (+17.6 units) in its last 26 as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range. - New York is 13-16 (-5.6 units) this season following a victory. The verdict: Both teams enter of victories. Each starter has enjoyed success vs. their opponent today, but I think the above trends swing the value in favor of the surging visiting side. Play on the Rockies! | |||||||
06-06-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -160 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Texas Rangers. These teams have split the first two games of this three game set, but I think the home side is worth the price of admission in the finale. Texas carries its momentum over from last night’s 2-1, 12-inning victory. Texas has now won six of its last eight. The home side goes with Arial Jurado (2-2, 2.43 ERA) who has performed well of late and who won his only start vs. the O’s, giving up two runs over five frames. The visitors go with David Hess (1-7, 7.36) who got shelled for seven runs over four innings in his last start vs. the toothless Giants. Key Trends: - Baltimore is just 4-18 vs. teams with winning records. - Texas is now 9-3 (+5.2 units) this season as a home favorite of -110 or higher. The verdict: I like Jurado to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-06-19 | Marlins +175 v. Brewers | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Marlins. Miami is rolling and I look for it to continue that momentum this afternoon. The Fish aim for the three game sweep today after yesterday’s 8-3 victory. The Marlins are 13-5 over their last 18. Miami is red hot at the plate, outscoring the Brewers 24-3 over the first two games. I find no reason for that trend not to continue today. The visitors go with Caleb Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA), who already has 80 K’s over 61 frames of work this year. The home side goes with Freddy Peralta (2-2, 5.68), who’s last three appearances have been in relief. Key Trends: - Miami is now 9-8 (+9.7 units) this season as an underdog in the +175 to +200 range. - Milwaukee is now just 3-5 in its last eight vs. southpaws. The verdict: I think Smith will out duel Peralta, who was called into action in an over night change for Brandon Woodruff and I expect the Marlins hot play at the plate to carry over as well. Great value on Miami! | |||||||
06-06-19 | Reds v. Cardinals -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Last night’s home starter Dakota Hudson will make this Thursday afternoon start. Hudson (4-3, 3.94 ERA) went 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six starts in May. Note that over Hudson’s last three outings he’s pitched at least six frames and given up two runs or fewer. Anthony DeSclafani (2-3, 4.97) was scheduled to start last night as well for the Reds, but he’ll also get pushed over. Note that he was a poor 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in the month of May. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is just 5-11 (-4.3 units) this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Cardinals are 11-3 (+6.8 units) this year with a home money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: Recent form displayed by these starters makes the Cardinals well worth the price of admission this afternoon! | |||||||
06-06-19 | Giants v. Mets -140 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. I had a play on the Mets last night and I think they’ll lay the hammer down here as well. New York will try to win this series by handing the ball to Zack Wheeler (5-3, 4.68 ERA), while the visitors go with Shaun Anderson. Jason Vargas worked a complete game in last night’s 7-0 victory, giving the Mets’ bullpen a much-needed break. This is an important angle working in favor of the home side this afternoon. Key Trends: - San Francisco is now just 9-13 as a road underdog. - New York is now 6-3 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I like Wheeler to take a page out of Vargas’s book and as mentioned off the top, the Mets bullpen comes in fresh here. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-05-19 | Giants v. Mets -126 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the New York Mets. I had a play on the Mets yesterday and while that pick came up short, I think the home side bounces back on Wednesday. After three-straight victories I believe the Giants have a predictable letdown here. The visitors go with Tyler Beede (0-1, 7.82 ERA), while the home side goes with Jason Vargas (1-3, 4.46.) This is Beede’s seventh major league appearance and fifth start. Vargas though comes in under the radar in my opinion. Note that he most recently allowed one run over seven innings in an unfortunate 2-0 loss to the Dodgers (and also note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in five career starts vs. San Francisco.) Key Trends: - San Francisco is still just 4-9 (-4.1 units) as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - New York is 15-9 at home this year. - The Mets are already 9-3 this season after having lost five or six of their last seven games. The verdict: I think Vargas is the correct call in this matchup. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-05-19 | White Sox v. Nationals UNDER 10 | Top | 4-6 | Push | 0 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Sox/Nats. Despite both Dylan Covey (1-4, 4.73 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (1-6, 4.47) having gotten out to such inconsistent starts to the 2019 campaign, I still think that this number is a little high. The Nationals have now won three straight, but they had to rally from a 5-0 deficit to win yesterday’s opener 9-5. Note as well that Sanchez comes in off his best start of the season, going six shutout innings in a win over the Braves on May 29th (note that Sanchez has a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts.) Covey was 0-10 with a 5.99 ERA over his previous 14 starts dating back to last season, but he also comes in off a “gem,” walking one and striking out five and allowing one run over six innings in a win over the Indians on Friday. Key Trends: - Chicago has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last 11 interleague contests when the total in the contest is 10.5 or higher. - Washington has seen the total dip under the posted number in 12 of its last 19 home games when the total is 10.5 or higher. The verdict: These improving starters battle into the latter frames and this one stays well below this sky-high number. Play the under! | |||||||
06-04-19 | Marlins v. Brewers -168 | 16-0 | Loss | -168 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Fish have been playing better of late, but I think they’ll come up short here in this clear mismatch on the mound. Marlins’ starter Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.99 ERA) is the biggest Jekyll and Hyde hurler in the game, posting a 1.84 ERA in five starts at home, compared to an atrocious 8.26 ERA in six road starts. Milwaukee counters with Chase Anderson (3-0, 3.31 ERA) who is 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts vs. Miami. Key Trends: - Miami is just 10-17 vs. teams with winning records. - Milwaukee is already 3-0 this year as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: Based upon Lopez’s horrible road record, I think Anderson could/should in fact be a much bigger/larger fav in this particular matchup. Lay it! | |||||||
06-04-19 | Giants v. Mets -133 | 9-3 | Loss | -133 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets. The Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (3-5, 4.01 ERA) goes up against the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.90) in this one. Both teams have been terrible so far this season. But after earning just their second series win in their last nine tries on Sunday by beating Baltimore, I think the Giants have a predictable letdown here. I think the starters are a “wash,” but the difference is in the numbers/trends. Key Trends: - As note that San Francisco is just 10-21 (-9.1 units) as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Giants are just 7-16 (-8.4 units) this year after a victory. - New York is 5-2 as a home favorite in the -100 to -150 range. - The Mets are 4-1 in their last five when playing with a day off. The verdict: I think the hungry home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-04-19 | Twins v. Indians -128 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. The Twins are 40-18 on the year and at some point, they’re going to come crashing back down to Earth. I think that slide begins tonight. The hosts won’t be lacking for motivation either after dropping ten of their past 14. The visitors go with Devin Smeltzer (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who gave up three hits while striking out seven without walking a batter over six scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Brewers in his MLB debut last Tuesday. Like the Twins, I think there’s only one way Smeltzer’s performance can go after that gem. The Tribe go with Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.67) who is 2-0 over his last three starts and who owns a 1-0, 4.58 ERA record in four career appearances vs. the Twins. Key Trends: - Minnesota 51-57 the L2 years after playing four or more straight road contests. - Cleveland is already 9-5 (+4.3 units) after having lost three of its last four games this season. The verdict: I like Bieber to bounce back at home and I look for Smeltzer to take a big step back. Lay this very reasonable price! | |||||||
06-04-19 | Rays v. Tigers +230 | 6-9 | Win | 230 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Detroit Tigers. The Rays are over-priced here in my opinion. Yes Blake Snell (3-4, 3.06 ERA) is better than Ryan Carpenter (0-2, 7.58), but Tampa enters having lost three straight. Snell has an 0-1 record in two career starts vs. the Tigers. Carpenter comes in off his best start since being called up from Triple-A, allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Orioles. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is 40-44 (-7.4 units) the L2 years after a loss by two runs or less. - The Tigers are already 5-3 (+4.1 units) this season after playing six or more consecutive road games. The verdict: After playing nine straight on the road, I think the hungry Tigers off great value to steal Game 1 of this series from the over-priced visiting side. Play on Detroit! | |||||||
06-04-19 | Braves -151 v. Pirates | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. Pittsburgh just played 27 games in 27 days. It then had Monday off. Now the Braves come to town and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. The Braves’ Max Fried (7-3, 3.19 ERA) will be opposed by the Pirates’ Steven Brault (2-1, 5.87.) Brault’s been decent in a starters role early (1-0, 5.54), but over 19 career trips to the hill in the big leagues he’s gone a pedestrian 3-4 with an elevated 4.87 ERA. He comes off a decent outing vs. the Reds, but I think he’s in over his head here. Fried’s three start win streak came to an end after allowing four runs over six innings vs. the Nationals, but I think he settles down here again in this favorable position. Key Trends: - Atlanta is already 4-0 as a road favorite of -125 or higher this season. - The Braves are 10-5 (+4.1 units) vs. southpaws this year. - Pittsburgh is just 4-8 as a home underdog. The verdict: I think Brault struggles vs. this hard-hitting Braves’ line-up. At the same time, there’s no reason not to think that Fried can’t get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price! | |||||||
06-03-19 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Phillies/Padres. This is an important series for both teams. The Padres are in a “free fall” right now, having lost five of their last seven, including two in a row to the lowly Marlins. The Phillies sit atop the NL East. The visitors look to keep the good times rolling, while the home side is eager to get off the schneid. Unfortunately for both line-ups they run into a couple of red hot hurlers on the mound and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect them to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola is is 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA over his last five starts, while Padres’ starter Eric Lauer is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his last three contests. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 24 on the road. - San Diego has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 29 at home. - The Padres have seen the total go under in four of their last five as a home dog. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under! | |||||||
06-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Red Sox/Yankees. David Price (2-2, 2.83 ERA) goes up against CC Sabathia (3-1, 3.48) in this one. Price has been historically destroyed by the Yanks, but he comes into this one top form going 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA over his last four starts. Sabathia has plenty of success though vs. the Red Sox, who went a poor 2 for 14 with RISP yesterday. Key Trends: - Boston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 vs. teams with winning records. - New York has seen total go under in seven of its last ten vs. southpaws. The verdict: I expect these competent veterans to battle deep into the latter innings. This number is high, play the under! | |||||||
06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres -170 | 9-3 | Loss | -170 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Padres. Tyler Richards (2-5, 3.82 ERA) and Matt Strahm (2-4, 3.21) are a “wash” here in my opinion. Miami’s been playing a lot better of late, but I think the Padres salvage the finale and take this three-game series vs. their lowly visitor. San Diego needs a win to prevent from falling below .500 at home and I expect it to make the most of this favorable match-up. Key Trends: - Miami is still only 9-19 as a +150 or higher underdog this year. - San Diego is 12-7 in its last 19 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. The verdict: Everything points to a lop-sided destruction in this one. Lay the price with confidence! | |||||||
06-02-19 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 104 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under under Mets/Diamondbacks. Arizona won 6-5 in 11 innings yesterday, breaking a five-game losing streak. The Mets have lost four of six on their seven-game road trip and they’ll be desperate here as well. The visitors go with Steven Matz (4-3, 3.44 ERA)w, while the home side goes with Merrill Kelly (4-6, 4.83.) Matz has posted two straight quality starts and he’s not given up more than three runs in any of his past six starts. Kelly has struggled of late, but note that he’s 2-2 with a sharp 2.64 ERA in five starts at Chase Field this season. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 day games. - Arizona has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: I think these competent starters battle deep and after yesterday’s marathon, all signs point to a lower-scoring “duel” on Sunday afternoon. Play the under! | |||||||
06-02-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Cards. St. Louis is desperate to make up ground vs. the Cubs and it has a chance to sweep this three-game series today. The home side goes with Adam Wainwright (4-5, 4.94 ERA), who enters off a loss to Philadelphia, allowing four runs over six innings with a season-high ten K’s. Wainwright is 15-11 with a 4.16 ERA in 46 games vs. Chicago. The visitors won’t be rolling over though obviously as they try to salvage the finale. The Cubs go with Cole Hamels (4-1, 4.02) who is 4-5 with a tiny 2.67 ERA in 14 career starts vs. St. Louis. Key Trends: - The Cubs have seen the total go under in six of nine already this year after having lost four or five of their last six games. - The Cardinals have seen the total go under in seven of ten already this season with a home money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: I think these veterans battle deep into the latter frames and I expect this total to stay well below the number. Play the under! | |||||||
06-02-19 | Nationals -124 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Nationals. The visitors go with Max Scherzer (2-5, 3.26 ERA). The Nationals come in with plenty of momentum after winning six of their last eight, including yesterday’s 5-2 win. Note that Washington is 9-1 in its last ten at Great American Ball Park. Scherzer has been the victim of some back luck this year, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his counterpart (note that Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati.) The Reds go with Sonny Gray (2-4, 3.54) who has been sharp of late, but who owns a rather pedestrian 4.50 ERA in four career starts vs. the Nats. Key Trends: - Washington is 7-2 in its last nine road games following a win by two runs or more. - Cincinnati is just 3-6 (-2.4 units) this season as a home underdog. The verdict: Look for Scherzer to finally get the support he’s been lacking and expect the Nationals to keep the foot on the gas. At least for one more game! | |||||||
06-01-19 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.71 ERA) faces off against Zack Greinke (6-2, 2.78) on Saturday night and I think the home side is the correct call in this matchup. Greinke enters on fire, having posted a 2.14 ERA in the month of may, not giving up more than three earned runs in any of his past 11 outings. Note that deGrom owns a 5.33 ERA in five outing with Wilson Ramos working as catcher as well this season. Key Trends: - The Mets are just 6-8 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this season. - Arizona is already 9-5 (+4.7 units) this season after having lost four or five of its last six games. The verdict: Arizona comes in desperate to break a five-game slide after New York scored two runs in the eighth inning in Friday’s 5-4 series opening victory. I expect Greinke to outlast deGrom and I look for the D-Backs to finally “get off the schneid.” Lay the short price! | |||||||
06-01-19 | Astros v. A's OVER 7.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the over Astros/A’s. The A’s are expected to welcome back Khris Davis tonight as they’ll look to avenge last night’s last 3-2 loss. The Astros hand the ball to Justin Verlander (8-2, 2.38 ERA), who has struggled vs. Davis throughout his career in Houston, allowing the slugger to go 6 of 11 (.545) with a double and four home runs among six hits. The home side goes with Brett Anderson (6-3, 3.86) who is 1-3 with a 6.97 ERA over five games, including four starts vs. the Astros. Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total go over in 17 of its last 29 as a -150 or higher favorite. - Oakland has seen the total go over in six of its last eight as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. The verdict: I think this one sneaks over late. Play the over! | |||||||
06-01-19 | Tigers +201 v. Braves | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers lost the services of slugger Miguel Cabrera in yesterday’s 8-2 victory at Atlanta, but I think the visitors still offer great value to pull off the upset here vs. what I feel to be an overpriced Mike Soroka and Braves team on Saturday afternoon. The Tigers have won three straight. Detroit hands the ball to Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.18 ERA) who has thrown better than that his win/loss record would indicate, as he’s given up two earned runs in three of his last four outings. Soroka (5-1, 1.07) hasn’t given up more than one earned run in eight starts this year. He’s been unbelievable, but I think these numbers are unsustainable and I believe that regression is imminent. Key Trends: - Detroit is 7-5 (+7 units) in its last 12 as road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - The Braves are a poor 4-5 (-4.3 units) as a home favorite of -150 or higher. The verdict: I think Soroka finally suffers a letdown here and I expect the hungry Norris to take advantage. Play on the Tigers! | |||||||
06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers -157 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Texas Rangers. Lance Lynn (6-4, 4.66 ERA) has looked much better over the last month and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here vs. Homer Bailey and the Royals on Saturday afternoon. Bailey (4-5, 5.79) opposed Lynn last month and was rocked for six runs off eight hits and four walks over four innings of work. Lynn would give up one run off six hits with one walk over seven innings in the 16-1 victory. Key Trends: - Kansas City is 7-16 (-5.9 units) as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - Texas is 17-9 (+13.1 units) at home. The verdict: In this mismatch of epic proportions, I look for the Lynn and the Rangers to bounce back from yesterday’s upset loss and wrap up another series victory. Lay the price! | |||||||
05-31-19 | Marlins v. Padres -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the San Diego Padres. This is a big game and series for the Padres tonight with ten straight in front of the home town crowd. Miami is just 8-17 on the road this year. The Fish hand the ball to Caleb Smith (3-2, 3.05 ERA), while the home side counters with Joey Lucchesi (3-3, 4.25). Over his last three starts Lucchesi has posted a 2.84 ERA and tiny 0.684 WHIP. Smith has enjoyed success against the Friars in the past, but that was then and this is now. I think the Padres make the most of this favorable matchup. Key Trends: - Miami is just 10-24 this season following a loss. - San Diego is 13-6 (+7.8 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest. The verdict: I think Miami’s inconsistencies on the road continues vs. the focused/determined Padres. Lay the price! | |||||||
05-31-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Cubs/Cards. Two pitchers who would gladly use a “mulligan” on their early 2019 performance collide on Friday night. Motivation won’t be lacking from either and I believe that fact will help in driving tonight’s total under the posted number. Chicago makes its first trip to St. Louis this season after sweeping the Cards in three games at home earlier in the year. Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.76 ERA) comes in off his strongest outing of the year for the Cards, holding the Braves to three runs over seven frames while striking out a season-high nine and walking none. Also note that Mikolas is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in six career games vs. the Cubs. Key Trends: - Chicago has seen the total go under in 12 of 20 already this season after allowing two runs or less. - St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 20 following a victory. The verdict: This one has “duel” written all over it. Play the under! | |||||||
05-31-19 | Indians v. White Sox +156 | 1-6 | Win | 156 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the White Sox. There’s no taking the foot off the gas for the White Sox, who sit one game behind the Tribe for second place in the standings. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trent to continue here. Chicago has won six of its last 11, while the Indians have lost eight of 12. Also note that Indians’ starting pitcher Trevor Bauer is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA over his last five starts. White Sox’ starter Dylan Covey is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA lifetime vs. Cleveland. Key Trends: - Note though that the Indians are just 6-7 (-4.2 units) already this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher. - The White Sox are already 5-3 (+3.6 units) after scoring eight or more runs this season. The verdict: I like the surging home side to continue its progression and take advantage of the scuffling Bauer. Play on the White Sox! | |||||||
05-31-19 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under Royals/Rangers. Starting pitching hasn’t been a point of strength for either club this year, but both Danny Duffy and Ariel Jurado have been “better than advertised” so far this season and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel” again on Thursday night, after the Royals 4-2 win on Thursday. Duffy (3-1, 3.12 ERA) and Jurado (1-2, 2.28) have been bright spots on poor rotations and I find no reason not to expect them to continue to progress in this match-up. Key Trends: - KC has seen the total go under in nine of 12 already this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. - The Rangers have seen the total go under in six of nine as a favorite of -110 or higher this year. The verdict: This can still be a higher-scoring game and stay “under” this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. Play the under! | |||||||
05-31-19 | Nationals v. Reds +117 | 3-9 | Win | 117 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Reds. Washington goes with Patrick Corbin (5-2, 2.85 ERA) to open this series. The Nationals have won five of six and have found their stroke at the plate, but I think they’re over-valued in this spot and I think that regression is ultimately imminent. Note that Corbin is 2-3 with a pedestrian 3.94 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Reds (he gave up a season-high six runs off eight hits over six innings in his most recent start vs. them back on May 30th, 2018.) The Reds go with Tyler Mahle (1-5, 4.15) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Cubs on Saturday (allowing three home runs.) Mahle’s had his difficulties vs. the Nationals as well, facing them once and giving up six runs over two innings. Key Trends: - Note though that Washington is just is still just 2-5 (-3.6 units) this year with a road money line in the -100 to -150 range. - Additionally note that Cincinnati is 5-1 (+5 units) this year when playing with a day off. The verdict: Both teams have been hitting the ball well, but the numbers and situation favor the under dog home side in my opinion. Play on the Reds! | |||||||
05-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -145 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Colorado Rockies. Kyle Freeland (2-6, 6.71 ERA) has struggled for the Rockies this season, but Colorado has already taken the first three games of this series and I believe they carry over that momentum here. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to rookie right-hander Taylor Clarke (1-0), who I believe will be in over his head here in this difficult road ballpark. Note that Arizona is just 6 of 28 with runners in scoring position over the first three games of this series. Key Trends: - Arizona is just 4-7 (-2.8 units) this year in revenging a one run loss to an opponent. - Colorado is already 8-2 (+5 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I like the Rockies to keep the good times rolling in this favorable matchup. All things considered, a very fair price. Lay it! | |||||||
05-30-19 | Cardinals +108 v. Phillies | 5-3 | Win | 108 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards come in desperate to salvage the finale of this three-game series. St. Louis was 19-10 over March and April, but it’s only 7-18 in May. The Cards’ Dakota Hudson (3-3, 4.22 ERA) comes in off a career-high seven innings tossed in a win over the surging Braves on Saturday. Overall he’d allow five hits and two runs. Hudson now has four quality starts in May and a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. Jerad Eickhoff (2-2, 3.86) posted a tiny 1.50 ERA over his first five starts, but he’s since posted a 9.75 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. The stage is set for the slight upset. Key Trends: - St. Louis is 12-8 in its last 20 when revenging for or more straight losses vs. an opponent. - The Phillies are a poor 7-9 (-3.3 units) already this season after two or more consecutive victories. The verdict: I like Hudson to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the desperate Cardinals! |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
ProSportsPicks | $832 |
Tom Macrina | $664 |
Jack Jones | $601 |
Ricky Tran | $546 |
Joseph D'Amico | $518 |
Nick Parsons | $498 |
Joey Tron | $436 |
Sean Higgs | $427 |
Dan Kaiser | $200 |
Sean Murphy | $184 |