Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-12-17 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
The Falcons are due. The only thing that’s holding them back is regression from last season as they are just unlucky (the Julio TD drop last week?). They are putting up top-6 metrics on offense and are due for a big win. They come off a divisional loss in their third straight road game at Carolina to play a Cowboys team that has the Eagles on deck and is without Ezekiel Elliott. I reduce 2 points for the Cowboys without Elliott and it could be even more because he is so valuable in my opinion. The Cowboys defense looked great vs the Chiefs, but the Chiefs played fluky on offense, Alex Smith is reverting to the conservative guy who doesn’t climb the pocket. Falcons should move the ball at will here, especially on the ground and I don’t think the Boys have enough firepower without Zeke to match that. Atlanta Falcons -3 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
There's not a lot to dive into with this matchup, for me this one is a no-brainer. This is a men vs boys kind of game and I expect the Steelers to trash the Colts. Indy is like Arizona, they won close vs bad teams and got blown out by the better teams. Without Hooker and Davis, this secondary will get torched and they also can’t stop the run or challenge that OL in the trenches. It also doesn’t help them that the Steelers play very good on D and also are bringing back Martavis Bryant. This is blowout city to me, 38-13 kind of game. Pittsburgh Steelers -10 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
Great situational spot for the home team. Bills got embarrassed by the Jets on prime time and the Saints just beat the Bucs straight up. So it’s a natural reaction that the Saints open as -2 favs at Buffalo and the line absolutely makes sense. However, I think this is a great spot to take the Bills in a decent matchup off extra rest vs a dome team in low temps around 30. Sell high spot for the Saints off games vs Hundley, Trubisky and Winston/Fitzpatrick. Tidbit: Drew Brees is 0-6-1 ATS in games with temps lower than 40 degrees. The Saints have the best matchup against teams that struggle to run the ball. They wanna jump out to a lead, milk the clock and give their good pass defense opportunities to make plays. First of all, it’s not easy to take a lead at Buffalo and secondly, the Bills are a run-first team that is able to stun the Saints and their only weakness on the ground. I am expecting a huge game by LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor on the ground. The Bills get two important players back, CB EJ Gaines and TE Charles Clay. Gaines helps tremendously because he is a very underrated corner. Clay helps a lot as a receiving threat underneath because the Bills obviously aren’t stacked at WR, but will see Kelvin Benjamin make his debut. It’s save to assume that the Bills aren’t going to shut the Saints offense down, but I dont expect the Saints to move the ball easily at Buffalo. Sean McDermott spent years in the NFC South and he knows these offenses in and out. They already beat the Bucs and Falcons and were an end zone drop away from beating the Panthers at Carolina. Buffalo Bills +3 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Chargers +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
The Chargers come off their bye week playing against a hot Jaguars team that has been able to mask their weaknesses. LAC were unlucky at New England – they had two touchdowns come back because of stupid penalties. Those drives returned in zero points. I think this is a talented team that still has some wild card hopes. They get Denzel Perryman back from IR, their starting Mike which is an upgrade. I expect the Chargers to use their bye week to focus on their run defense because that’s pretty much the only weakness that can be fixed quite a bit on the Chargers team. The Jaguars want to pound the ball and mix in some PA, jump a lead and let their defense win the rest of the game. As soon as a team jumps a lead on them, the Jags are in jeopardy because their offense has to function out of structure. They aren’t build to beat teams through the air when the opponent knows what’s coming. Bortles looks solid this season when he doesn’t have pressure. On most of his successful passes he doesn’t need to throw into tight windows or throw someone open. He basically hits open receivers off of play action a lot. Versus the Bengals he wasn’t good but the Jags were successful on early downs so that he didn’t need to force anything. He still had some terrible throws and dropped picks. The Jags are 5-0 when they had a close score long enough or jumped a lead. In their 3 losses, defenses didn’t let them pull away. I think the Chargers defense has enough potential to keep this one close early on, even though we are expecting the Jaguars to be quite successful on the ground and a big advantage is that ex- Jags HC Gus Bradley is their DC. He will put in the extra hours to make his defense shine. LAC has a talented corner group with Hayward and Williams ranking and they are very good against TE's which will contain the Jags secret weapon Mercedes Lewis. On offense the Chargers have a QB who is good for 3 picks twice a season but also one of the best when throwing from condensed pockets and you need that unique attribute when playing vs this Jaguars DL. Gordon could see a couple breakout runs against one of the worst defenses in the league. I believe that the Chargers have the potential and the situation to keep this game close against a team that needs a certain game script to be successful. If the Chargers score the first touchdown, the +4 has a great shot of hitting. San Diego Chargers +4 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
This is probably the best situational spot on the board. The Lions come off a big win at Lambeau and have two divisional games vs the Bears and Vikings on deck. In between they play vs the lowly Browns. Cleveland come off their bye week and get a great price here at +11.5. Winless teams in week 6 or later are 26-8 ATS off their bye week. Teams with 0 or 1 wins are 80-50 ATS. The Vikings game at London was interesting to watch because Hue finally put Kizer in a position to succeed. He responded with some great plays under pressure against a great defense. Hue Jackson constantly asked Kizer to throw aggressively downfield to WR's like Kenny Britt and Ricardo Louis. Getting Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back could completely alter this offense. The Browns have a good run game and two versatile RB's who weren’t used properly overall until the Vikes game. This week they get Garrett, Peppers and McCourty back. McCourty and Garrett are great additions to this pass defense especially this week. The Lions rank 32nd in rush offense, rushing for just 3.2 yards per carry. They won’t be able to run on the Browns so they gotta need to get their offense going simply via the pass so they will be highly predictable on offense. Their pass offense has been on fire the past three weeks, but given the spot and long third downs, they could be forced into some mistakes which should help the Browns keeping this game close. A good way to attack the Browns is via the TE position as they are maybe the worst at defending TE's, but the Lions don’t have a quality TE. The Lions simply need to rely on the pass and if the Browns can limit their turnovers, they have a good shot at covering double digits here. Update: Lions are likely without their best OL, T.J. Lang who was put into the concussion protocol. Cleveland Browns +11 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
Put everything you had in mind regarding these two teams aside for a moment. What in the world justifies to make the Jets -2.5/-3 favs on the road? This is public perception vs reality at its finest. The Jets beat the Bills in a great spot at home last week and the media has been all over it. Todd Bowles is getting Coach of the Year praises, OC Morton is talked as a sleeper head coach. This team has exceeded all expectations already, also mine. But it doesn’t justify to make them FG favs on the road. Jets have one single quality win all season, that was last week in a great spot vs a rookie HC on a short week at home. Their four road games? Lost by 9 at BUF, outgained by 194 yards. Lost by 25 at OAK, outgained by 139 yards. Lost by 3 at MIA, outgained by 85 yards. Won by 3 at CLE. The Browns game was an historical win. They got outgained by 205 yards and the Browns turned the ball over 3 times inside the Jets 5 yard line. Jets should have lost by 10+ there. Overall, they are 1-3 on the road but should be 0-4. They got outgained by a total of 623 yards in four road games. They are a bad road team. Now lets talk about the Bucs. Tampa Bay is having a season to forget. Doug Martin was suspended for the first three games, Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David missed a combined 8 games, TJ Ward has been battling injuries, Vernon Hargreaves has regressed, Jameis Winston has a shoulder injury. The thing about Winston has always been the following: He has a great arm and can make outstanding throws, but it’s rare. His accuracy is terrible, especially on deep balls in the Bucs’ vertical passing game. He consistently has mental mistakes, throwing the ball straight into triple coverage. Combined with his injury, his play has been atrocious lately. Did you hear his team speech last week? It was a clowns show. Here comes the (Fitz-)magic: Ryan Fitzpatrick is NOT a downgrade from Winston at this point. He is rather an upgrade because Koetter has to alter the Bucs offensive style as Fitz cannot throw deep. Fitzpatrick throwing to TEs and RBs underneath with DeSean drawing deep coverage is a better idea than a banged up Winston throwing deep. They are missing Mike Evans but I don’t really care. They don’t need him to win this game. Bucs will bring everything on Sunday to support Fitzpatrick vs his former team. | |||||||
11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys OVER 52.5 | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Zeke is back in and the Cowboys get a national spotlight game at Jerry World. I see some explosive offense happening on both sides of the ball here today. Two great QB's, two great RB's, two great WR's, two great TE's. However there are still question marks on both D's. This one has shootout written all over it. Over 52.5 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
I get the feeling that the Redskins are having one of the most brutal stretches right now. They are decimated with injuries and get to face the Hawks, Vikes off bye and the Saints. Every good passing defense is a tough matchup for the Skins and right now they play with a banged up offensive line and travel across the country to play at Seattle. The Redskins don’t have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, they don’t have a bye to prepare and they don’t have a magic dual threat QB. They got a mediocre Kirk Cousins behind a banged up offensive line. Trent Williams will be out, Spencer Long and Brandon Scherff didn’t practice. Swing tackle Ty Nsekhe didn’t practice. Jordan Reed is 99% out. Jamison Crowder didn’t practice. Zach Brown didn’t practice. The injury report looks even more concerning than last week for the Skins. We can’t talk about metrics here because of how banged up they are. Redskins offense cannot move the ball at Seattle. It would be completely surprising to me if they scored more than 14-17 offensive points. Seattle is going to win in the trenches easily. Cousins could be picked twice and sacked five times. The Hawks offense is weird. Their play calling is reactive to the opponent and score. If the score is tight and it’s early in the quarter, they are very predictable, trying to run with a non-existing run game. Chasing a score or before half time they go crazy with play action and vertical routes. Getting Duane Brown doesn’t fix their OL or running game but it helps Wilson processing in the pocket because he doesn’t have to account for both tackles getting beaten at the snap. The passing game should improve. The Skins defense isn’t great and they also have some injuries to deal with. The Hawks shouldn’t be forced to chase a score here. They will try to get their run game going or surprise us and put the game on ice as early as possible with a TNF game on deck. I expect them to use Jimmy Graham early and often as the Skins can’t defend TE's at all. All in all they should have enough on offense and defense to beat a mediocre and banged up Skins team by more than a TD at home. Play is on the Hawks. Seeing a 27-14 kind of game. Seattle Seahawks -7 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
I have the home side favoured by my count, yet we are getting a full field goal of dog points. I cannot expect the Cardinals to score many points with Drew Stanton. Stanton has a TD pass in only 5 of 9 career starts and Arians always tried to limit his impact. With a good running game that approach would be clever, but the Cards struggle there too. Peterson had one good game and hasn't shown he can carry the load otherwise. There is no threat going from this offense. The Niners who will be very motivated after their recent trade for a franchise QB (not playing), will have their best chance to win a game this year, however I'll play it safe with the field goal points. 49ers +3 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Bucs v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show |
I view the Saints as -8 favorites here and thanks to some huge sharp action, this line has come down to -6.5 over Thursday. I disagree with that line and don’t see legitimate reasons for such a huge exposure on the Bucs. The Saints have a strong and dominant offense, good pass defense. These are key factors to win a lot of games and to win a lot of games by more than one possession. The Saints offense vs the Bucs defense might be the best matchup on the board this week, equal to Houston vs Indy. By metrics, the pass-heavy Bucs still have one of the better passing offenses in the NFL, but Jameis Winston is not right and they face a really good passing defense. This game is about game script. The Bucs could be successful if they go run-heavy with Doug Martin and the Saints don’t get ahead. But I see this game being played out as the Saints scoring early and then go into their lovely run-mode in the second half to see what Jameis does with a banged up shoulder against their pass defense. If the Saints score early and often against a terrible defense, they cover -6.5 here and that’s what I lean. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 45 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Houston we have a problem. The unfortunate mid-week news about Deshaun Watson tearing his ACL has Houston scrambling. They'll turn the reigns over to Tom Savage who was absolutely brutal in his Week 1 start. Change is never good at the QB position when we are talking about scoring points. It always takes time to acclimate and you'll see that today. On the other side of the ball, the Colts are still without Andrew Luck and nothing is coming easy for them offensively. I see an ugly game on both sides. Under 45 | |||||||
10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I suspect most people's first instinct would be lean on the Over in tonight's Monday night matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. The Chiefs are certainly capable of scoring a lot of points (#2 in Y/GM gained) and at the same time their defense has given up an average of 23 points a game this season (30th Y/GM given up). However a deeper dive is needed to know what's really going on. Their first two games were against the Patriots and the Eagles, largely considered the two best offenses in the league right now, giving up 27 and 20 respectively. They then played a very mediocre offensive team in the L.A. Chargers and held them to 10 points while scoring over 24 themselves. Their next two games were played against two more high powered offenses in the Redskins and Texans allowing 20 and 34 respectively. They then played the a motivated Steelers team holding them to 19 and then last week against the Raiders they allowed 31. So what are the scoring/defensive patterns this all amounts to? In my opinion they are clearly able to score on bad defenses and engage in shootouts if needed. But against any good to quality defenses the games turn into ball control and clock management. The Broncos come into this game with the #1 overall defense in the NFL (258.5 yards per game) and rank in the top 10 in both run and pass defense. Better yet they've lost two straight games and have allowed over 220 yards total on the ground in those matchups which means they'll be super pumped up to bring their A game tonight on National TV. They also get Shane Ray back which is a huge boost to their D. Looking at their offense, we all know ever since Peyton Manning retired this isn't the same explosive offense we are used to (32 total points scored in last 4 games), despite the same offensive weapons. Speaking to that, wideout Emmanuel Sanders is questionable which would leave Marcus Peters to shadow Demaryius Thomas the whole night. I see this game being very low scoring. I foresee the Chiefs sitting on an early lead and burning the clock with Kareem Hunt, and the Broncos D playing well enough to force some punts. Why risk interceptions in the air against a dangerous pass defense if you know the other team can't score? The Broncos are not capable of getting in a shootout with anybody so they'll focus on the run, turn overs, and special teams. Under 42.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 75 h 38 m | Show |
I know Steelers -2.5 looks super square here, but the line is more than fair. When seeing a square road fav line I always ask if I would take the team at that price at home, switching points for Home for Away. Steelers would be -8.5/-9 at home and that’s still a reasonable line. Big Ben seems to be back. He threw some nice passes into tight windows against Cincy and didn’t hesitate at any throw. His deep pass is still an issue but with Bell being back to his form that’s not a big deal. The Steelers are at the top of my Power Rating, offense is loaded and defense is playing really good. Steelers top all the efficiency metrics. This is a boys vs men kind of game to me. After media doubted the Steelers, this is another huge statement game for them saying “We are here” on prime time. From a matchup standpoint, I don't see how the Lions prevail here other than by turnovers or weird flags. The Lions offense is non-existent. They rank 30th in yards per play at 4.6. The only offenses worse are Miami and Baltimore. Lions can’t run the ball and can’t consistently move the ball from the pocket. Stafford is at his best when the play breaks down, but that’s not sustainable. This isn’t enough to beat the Steelers. The Lions need to rely on the pass (probably without Golden Tate) against a good passing defense with a strong pass rush that ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Against other top-10 defenses in sack rate, Minnesota and Carolina, the Lions struggled to move the ball through the air. LT Greg Robinson is bad but he might not play so expect his replacement to be even worse against young freak TJ Watt. Don't be fooled by the Lions coming off a bye, they are the clear worse team in this matchup. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Chargers +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 67 h 0 m | Show |
The Chargers overcame early season struggles and are finally playing up to their potential. Lynn finally involves Henry at 80%+ snaps and the offense got more effective. Hightower being out is a huge blow for an already bad Pats defense. They can’t cover TE's and that’s where Henry is the key for the Chargers this week as they should be successful through the air and put up points. Chargers D is playing conservative and disciplined, playing a lot of zone behind a strong pass rush by their D-line and they defend TE's very well. I expect the Pats to go run heavy here because they like to attack weaknesses and they want to keep their D sidelined. However, I think the Chargers are able to pull the upset in this one as the Pats have too many issues on their D and the Chargers D has been capable of keeping games close. The highest scoring amount they gave up was 26 to Philly. Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Falcons -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 67 h 57 m | Show |
As bad as the Falcons offense looked the last two weeks, it’s hard to believe they put up another shit show this week. Sarkisian got officially counted on, he has to change something, otherwise he will be sacked next Monday. Atlanta comes off an embarrassing prime time loss in a game everyone expected them to play like real men to get Super Bowl revenge. They failed. This is a perfect spot to put all their frustrations on the lowly Jets who have been overperforming when it comes to their record. The Jets have played an easy schedule in terms of efficiency metrics and teams being in bad spots: survived the 0-7 Browns in a magic game, blew a lead to the Jags off London to barely win in OT, blew a 14pt lead to NE (would have been a quality win though) and blew a 14pt lead to the Fins. This team has benefited from an easy schedule and I expect them to regress in terms of scores. They have a shot at losing all their remaining games from now on. In terms of metrics they rank bottom-10 across the board despite their schedule. Their defense isn't much better, all above middle of the pack averages. This is a team waiting to get beaten by the better teams in the league. Remember what a solid Raiders offense did to them. If the Falcons jump a lead which has much better chances than Jets jumping a lead, the running game gets negated to some margin in the second half which leads to McCown spreading the ball and that smells some turnovers. If Sarkisian gets his head straight, Falcons should win a 31-17 kind of game at New York. Atlanta Falcons -4.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Bears +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
I know that it looks intriguing to go with the hot Saints in their Superdome against a team that won by defensive scores recently. However, this isn’t a good matchup for the Saints. Whereas their pass defense has been playing on an extremely high level since week 2, their big and probably only weakness is defending the run and the pass to RBs. And that’s where the Bears present the perfect matchup. Chicago wants to run the ball (2nd-highest percentage in the league) with slow pace, no matter if they are playing with a lead or trailing. The Saints run D ranks 30th in yards per carry. The Saints also have allowed the 5th-most receptions to RB's. This is a great matchup for the Bears who are going to attack the ground and the short field with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen all game long. They are going to slow the game down and keep themselves in winnable situations all the way. They don’t play to get blown out. On defense, they rarely get beaten by big plays. They play the pass very well and force the opponent to beat them on the ground or by short passes. This all sums up to a low scoring game which plays to the Bears strengths on running the football. Chicago Bears +9.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Vikings -9.5 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The Vikings look to win their fourth straight game and put a strangle hold on the NFC North when they face the winless Browns on Sunday at London’s Twickenham Stadium. The Minnesota Vikings have found a way to win despite who plays QB, meanwhile the Cleveland Browns continue to flip flop at the helm and can't find any consistency behind center. The Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards to rank fourth in the league in total defense. Minnesota gave up a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week. Now they get a shot at rookie Deshone Kizer who gets another starting chance after getting pulled and then finding himself in hot water over the late night video which surfaced last week. The Vikings also get WR Diggs back this week which should actually help their run game, forcing the Browns secondary to play soft coverage. To make matters worse for the Browns, they lose both Myles Garrett to concussion protocol and All-Pro OL Joe Thomas who's been a rock for them for years now. Browns are 7-25-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall and Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. Note not win/loss, against the spread. Hard to imagine, but true. Minnesota Vikings -9.5 | |||||||
10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
This is a phenomenal buy low spot to take the Ravens. Baltimore is the home side with a strong defense on a short week against a team that is getting overpriced. The Fins have more wins than I thought they would have, but each one occured by one possession. They are a bottom three team on average by all significant metrics. They are a 2-4 team by metrics but they somehow sneaked to 4-2. Now they travel to Baltimore on a short week with a QB change. I am low on Matt Moore and there is a reason Adam Gase went with Cutler out of retirement instead of Moore. Moore consistently tries to throw games away. Last season he got away with fluky wins before exploding vs Steelers in the playoffs. The Ravens defense is really good. Their pass defense ranks 5th in DVOA and their run defense is expected to improve because their best run defender Brandon Williams was out for 4 games. At their home turf, they are going to make the job of Matt Moore and a harmless Dolphins offense who got some injuries very hard and should create turnovers. The Dolphins run offense is averaging 3.3 YPC, good for 30th in the league and 0.8 YPC below average. I don’t see how they do anything tonight. On the flip side, the Ravens offense has knowingly struggele. However, the Ravens have a better offensive matchup than the Dolphins vice versa. The Ravens offense also faced one of the toughest schedules this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the Ravens scoring in the 24-27 range along with a defensive score. That should be enough to cover because the defense will take care of the rest. I like the Ravens to cover -3 here vs the Dolphins. Baltimore Ravens -3 | |||||||
10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 57 m | Show |
Super Bowl revenge! This isn’t the same Pats team most are used to seeing, especially on defense. The regression is obvious for the Falcons offense (int's & tipped int's) this year but they are still very efficient. They ran very well vs the Pats in the SB and this time they get an even worse Pats defense. Falcons should run all day and the Pats don’t have the CB's to match up well with Julio, Sanu and Gabriel. They are also giving up the 2nd most receptions and most yards to RB's, which is certainly a bad matchup vs Atlanta due to their two header monster backfield in Freeman and Coleman. The Falcons can use their full arsenal of weapons and should move the ball all day long. If they get a key stop more on offense, this 3.5 line should hit. Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | |||||||
10-22-17 | Cowboys v. 49ers +6 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
I think this line is too high for the Cowboys even though I think they will look better during the next few weeks. CJ Beathard definitely looks quite a bit better than Brian Hoyer. His peak plays were good last week. Cowboys defense gives up tons of points, that’s why their overall scoring differential is just +1 on the season so far. Niners finally return home after a tough road stretch and even though Dallas comes off their bye, I don’t see this line to be justified. Niners didn’t get blown out since Week 1 and always hung tough. Kyle Shanahan keeps pressing the gas pedal until the last minute and even though they don’t have a competitive roster yet, they always provide you with backdoor chances. Home game, nothing to lose, new QB, one of the better run defenses who get Foster back – I really like the six points here. San Francisco 49ers +6 | |||||||
10-22-17 | Saints -4 v. Packers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 159 h 29 m | Show |
On top of Rogers going down, the Packers O-Line is in serious question entering this matchup. Regardless if David Bakthiari and Brian Bulaga play, they've had no reps with new QB Brett Hundley this week so they won't be familiar with his pocket presence/movement and it should allow for a field day for the Saints DT's - defensive end Cameron Jordan has registered five sacks already on the year. I expect Hundley and the Packers to attempt to counter this by trying to get rid of the ball very quickly and the Saints D-Coordinator well aware of this and play press coverage everywhere. Besides quick throws expect to see a lot of runs and screens, I don't expect Hundley to open up the offense in his first career start. The one thing he can do is scramble, so the Saints should be actively ready to play contain. On the other side of the ball, things are really coming together for the Saints. They've rattled off three straight wins after an 0-2 start and quarterback Drew Brees sees things falling into place. "I think we've gotten better every week in certain ways," Brees told reporters. "Obviously, we have some momentum. We like the direction that we are going. We understand the things that have happened these last three weeks that've allowed us to win.". One of these things being the running game certainly. Look for Ingram and Kamara to continue their excellent play as of late and to get big chunks of yardage on Sunday against a defense which has struggled against the run allowing 119.8 yards per game (24th in NFL). New Orleans Saints -4 | |||||||
10-22-17 | Panthers v. Bears +3 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
THe Panthers are in a slightly better situation because they come off a Thursday game and Bears come off a tough overtime game at Baltimore. Some key injuries to monitor as Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol and I doubt he plays, and Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t practiced. It really surprises me that the Panthers are one of the biggest public plays this week as I believe the Bears are a tough underrated team to beat at their home turf. The Bears are 3-0 ATS at home. They played a tough schedule and got blown out twice when Mike Glennon and company destroyed themselves with company. With Trubisky and Kyle Long back healthy, they ground and pound and play it save. Bears have a good front seven, a strong running game and a solid young QB. Panthers struggle to run the ball whole season and even if Ryan Kalil is back, I am having a hard time seeing them running efficiently on that Bears front seven. A field goal at home should provide a lot of opportunity for the cover. Chicago Bears +3 | |||||||
10-22-17 | Titans v. Browns OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. Over 42.5 | |||||||
10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 Full analysis coming soon. | |||||||
10-15-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
L.A. Chargers +3.5 Full analysis coming soon | |||||||
10-15-17 | Rams +1 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. | |||||||
10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints -4.5 Full analysis coming soon | |||||||
10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
I like the Browns again this week. I still don’t know how they lost last week – it was an historical game in terms of losing while completely out gaining the opponent. This line is wrong again in my point of view, as crazy as it sounds. From last year’s great defensive unit, the Texans are without Bouye, Demps, Cushing, Wilfork, Kevin Johnson, Simon, Mercilus and (Watt). They couldn’t stop the pass this season and now they are down another two key players to their front seven. The Browns’ best unit is their offensive line and when Clowney plays against Joe Thomas, I don’t know how this front seven is gonna create consistent pressure or stop the run consistently. I think Kevin Hogan would play with more confidence than Kizer this week but the Browns should absolutely move the ball in this one. Browns must have started giving Hue Jackson the count after last week and this week we should expect more conservative play-calling inside the red zone to get points on the board. I think this game is decided in the fourth quarter and the Texans shouldn’t lay double digits to anyone this week. Cleveland Browns +10 | |||||||
10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
Update: Brady was officially removed from the injury report on Friday. The Jets might be one of the worst 3-2 teams in recent history. They played maybe the easiest defensive stretch possible (MIA, JAX, CLE) and benefited from either great spots or a complete red zone collapse from CLE. Browns could have led 20-0 at halftime. The Jets are the first team since 1994 to rush for fewer than 35 yards and to pass for fewer than 180 yards in a game against the Browns. Note that Powell and Forte appear to be out, leaving Elijah McGuire to handle the load. I expect the Patriots to continue to work out their defensive woes in this one and score at a healthy amount of points. New England Patriots -9 | |||||||
10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Short week off blowout win for the Eagles. They have been looking really good, but they also have wins over 0-5 NYG, 1-4 LAC, 2-2 WSH and 2-3 ARI. I am seeing a letdown. Their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson is in the concussion protocol and we can’t expect him to start. That’s a terrible blow to what seems to be the best OL in the league right now. The offensive efficiency vastly decreased with his absence in 2016. The only thing that kills Wentz this year is pressure and the Panthers should provide that. Backup Vaitai will have a hard time against Addison and Johnson. Panthers defense has one of the best LB corps in the league and they defend TE's very well – Zach Ertz is is by far the favorite target of Wentz and leads all receivers far ahead with 32 receptions. Wentz is 33/61 when targeting Jeffery and Smith. If you take away Ertz and provide pressure, I wouldn’t be afraid about that matchup for Carolina. On the flip side, the Eagles defense hasn’t been playing to what our expectations were. They rank 25th in NYPPA (6.8) and the Panthers passing offense ranks 9th at 6.9 NYPPA and is the best they face year to date. Cam Newton finally looked like his former self the last two games and that offense should be a threat to the Eagles. Carolina Panthers -3 | |||||||
10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Finally Mitch Trubisky gets the start. Better accuracy, better pocket presence, better legs than Glennon. And Vikes don’t really have tape on Trubisky. This is a great spot for the Bears at home on MNF. Rumors are that players also asked for a QB change – that’s huge. The team will bring everything on MNF. Bears have a good front seven and I don’t expect the Vikes to get anything done on the ground with a banged up Murray and McKinnon. Cook is just such a huge loss. Keenum had a great game against a decimated TB defense, but now comes back to reality without a run game. Bears will get this thing done in a great spot with a strong run game and a better QB who will get some first downs with his legs. Chicago Bears +4 | |||||||
10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
I love the Cowboys here despite Green Bay coming off rest. GB are overvalued in this one after home wins vs 1 - 3 teams. Packers are a mediocre road side, just 15-15 straight up against the spread on the road since 2014 and they struggle against good offenses because their defense still isn’t where it should be in order to be dominant. Cowboys are off a backdoor loss and on revenge after losing to GB in the playoffs. Cowboys are also getting healthier on defense (Irving back from susp, more CB depth) while the Packers are still banged up. They don’t have a running back tomorrow, Davante Adams is banged up, both starting tackles were only limited and so on. I think the Cowboys come out extremely focused in this one and use their offense to control the clock and I expect Zeke to have a big game. Dallas Cowboys -2 | |||||||
10-08-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
The Bengals had a very easy game last week and as you saw with the Ravens last week, coming off blowouts doesn't usually bode well (let down spot). The Bills have a positive turnover margin, whereas the Bengals give up the ball. The Bills match up well with the Bengals because they got a superior matchup in the trenches defensively. Bills are playing great on D overall. McDermott gets everything out of the 4-3. Its tough to see the Bengals moving the ball efficiently against the Bills. They played a banged up Packers D scoring only 17 offensively and beat a bad Browns defense missing their best players. The Bills are a different animal. Note that the Bills offense gets Cordy Glenn back and Tyrod Taylor and crew should be able to muster up enough points to find a cover in this one. Buffalo Bills +3.5 | |||||||
10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
The Jets look good, the Browns look bad – everyone is grabbing the Jets as a “no-brainer”. Before the season started I had this line at Browns -5.5 and I don't think a lot has changed. The Jets won against the Dolphins who are a bad team who were in a terrible travelling spot. Then they got the Jags without rest off their London trip and almost blew that game. It’s interesting how the perception on the Jets has since adjusted. This is a true road game off a long overtime win and the Browns stay at home. This is the Browns Super Bowl because they know if they can win one game this year it’s this one. Myles Garrett will line up this week, Danny Shelton their best lineman comes back and Jamie Collins also likely comes back. Collins often plays the strong side and in blitz packages. That’s three important players on D coming back that will make the Jets OL look bad. The Jets offense is plain bad and they almost gave the game away last Sunday. They are going to make mistakes and the Browns simply want this one more. Cleveland Browns +1 | |||||||
10-08-17 | 49ers v. Colts -120 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
Great spot to take an undervalued home side. I disagree with SF being favs on the road. The Niners come off a long overtime game, back to back road games, off 3 divisional games, and have an early eastern time start. The Colts offensive line has played decently this year. Brissett gets a lot of clean pockets and this week they get C Ryan Kelly back. Brissett also had great pocket presence against a strong Seahawks pass rush. The problem was that Indy doesn’t have the receivers to beat a strong secondary / tight pass coverage. The Niners don’t have such thing, so the Colts should be able to move the ball in this one against a different defense. San Fran's offense isn't anything special and Hoyer should be forced into 1-2 picks, because they don’t have the receivers to consistently nullify Hooker, Davis and company. Indianapolis on the moneyline | |||||||
10-08-17 | Cardinals v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
The Cardinals come off a long divisional overtime game to play an early eastern game against a legit team. The Eagles are a top-10 offense by metrics and haven't faced any bad defenses as of yet which should really help them against a stellar Cards D. Play calling was decent vs LA, many play actions and a good mix of run/pass. Smallwood is out today, so look for Blount and Clement to control the ball. Arizona has a decent D by metrics, but they played SF, IND and DET – their numbers are inflated. I am not sold as a top-10 unit yet. Cards OL is one of the worst in the league and will be overmatched by Philly front seven. Cards will struggle moving the ball and their only hope is to create turnovers. I like Philly in this one. Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 | |||||||
10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
The Matthew Stafford bailout streak ends today. Vikes had 3 fumbles off which Lions scored 11 of 14 points and Stafford had 4 dropped interceptions during the game. In terms of metrics, the Lions offense is easy bottom 10 material. Lions have a turnover ratio of +9 thus far which would be +36 over a season. They can’t sustain that. This has to be the week when the Lions luck goes outta the window. Panthers off huge win and back to back road games, but Lions off huge divisional win. Panthers likely getting Kalil and Samuel back which would be huge. It seems that Newtons injury isn’t an issue anymore, because they finally used Newtons legs again on QB draws and power runs etc. That threat combined with McCaffrey is the reason I was so high on that offense. Panthers should win this one if they don’t fumble the ball away three times, but I'll take the generous field goal cover. Carolina Panthers +3 |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |