Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-02-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -3 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* "Battle of Losers" is on the OKC Thunder. The New Orleans Pelicans remain without No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson and starting center Derrick Favors (8.7 & 6.3) has missed the last two games with a knee injury (doubtful for this one). However, the Pelicans won their first game of the season (opened 0-4) of the season on Thursday with a complete effort that included the return of guard Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans will try to make it two in a row and earn their first victory on the road when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. The Thunder also check in at 1-4, withe their lone victory coming 120-92 over Golden St back on Oct 27. A.D. wanted out of New Orleans and the Pelicans traded him to the Lakers. Brandon Ingram was one of the key players New Orleans received in that deal and he's averaging 26.8 PPG while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. Hart (13.8 & 6.2) and Ball (12.4-4.4-7.4) also came from the Lakers but the Pelicans are really happy to have Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7 LY) back in the lineup, after missing two games. He scored points and went 5-of-9 from three-point range in Thursday's win plus helped solidify a defense that allowed an average of 130 points in his two-game absence. Jahlil Okafor started in place of Favors on Thursday and scored a team-high 26 points on 8-of-13 from the floor. Oklahoma City has failed to reach 100 points in three of its first five contests and was 4-of-27 from beyond the arc in Wednesday's 102-99 loss to Portland. "We got to the free-throw line quite a bit, which kept it close, but the 3-point line probably was the difference, and we just did not shoot it certainly as well as they did or as timely as they did," Thunder head coach Billy Donovan told reporters The Thunder underwent considerable offseason changes, with former MVP Russell Westbrook getting dealt to Houston in a trade that brought in 15-year veteran PG Chris Paul plus All-Star Paul George was sent to the Clippers in a deal that brought in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari. Here's the deal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.6-7.0-3.2) and Danilo Gallinari (18.4 & 5.0) are the team's top-two scorers. PGs Paul (14.8-4.2-3.6) and Dennis Schroder (14.6-5.4-4.4) are also contributing nicely. Center Steven Adams (6.0 & 11.8) left-knee injury opened a starting spot for Nerlens Noel in the last contest and he played his best game of the season with 15 points and 14 rebounds. The Pelicans played "over their heads" vs Denver and the Thunder could really use a win over a VERY beatable foe.The home team took each of the four meetings last season and I see no reason for that to change here, even with two "new-look" squads. Also, "the price is right!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-02-19 | Utah v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on Washington at 4:00 ET. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll, while Utah checked in right behind them at No. 14. However, as the two Pac-12 schools meet Saturday in Seattle, Utah is ranked 9th in the latest AP poll (7-1 / 3-1 in Pac-12), while Washington is unranked at 5-3 (2-3 in Pac-12). Utah vists Washington in the midst of a dominating defensive stretch, holding opponents to just 23 points during a four-game winning streak, while scoring 146 points (36.5 PPG). The streak began after the Utes lost their lone game of 2019, 30-23 at USC on Sep 20. The Huskies are coming off a bye week, getting a much-need break after losing 35-31 at home against now-No. 7 Oregon on Oct 19 (Washington led 28-14 and 31-21 in that one). Utah's D gets most of the attention (10.2 P PG ranks 4th and 231.2 YPG ranks 3rd), as the Utes have held four teams to seven or fewer points this season. However, Utah's offense is averaging 33.1 PPG (38th) on 452.4 YPG (30th). Senior QB Tyler Huntley is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards and 10 TDs, while throwing just one interception. He is the 5th QB in program history to top 6,000 career yards (6,037). Senior RB Zack Moss (728 rushing yards / 6.6 YPC / 10 TDs) has set records for career rushing TDs (33) and career 100-yard games (15) plus holds the Utah's career rushing yardage mark of 3,379. Obviously, Washington is a disappointment with three losses but head coach Chris Petersen has had a bye week to prepare for the challenge of moving the ball against the Utes. Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's thrown three or more TD passes in four different games, completing 67.4 percent for 1,981 yards,with 16 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (663 RY / 5.8 YPC / 7 TDs). Washington is averaging 35.8 PPG (28th) and most teams would be happy with a defense allowing 21.5 PPG (33rd). Hopes of a Pac-12 title are pretty much 'dead' (Huskies are 2-3 in the Pac-12 North while the Ducks are 5-0) but Petersen is a quality coach and Washington a quality program which will play with plenty of pride. Utah was not able to win at USC (allowed 30 points) and the Huskies have totally dominated the Utes in this series, winning 12 of 13 all-time meetings. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-02-19 | Georgia v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET. No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia square off in Jacksonville on Saturday. The programs first met in 1915 and have played every season since 1926 except for a war-time interruption in 1943. It is one of the most prominent rivalry games in college football, and has been held in Jacksonville, Florida since 1933, with only two exceptions, making it one of the few remaining neutral-site rivalries in college football. It's earned it the nickname of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." The winner of this game will gain the inside track to the SEC East Division title and a spot in the SEC championship game (Dec 7). Both teams were off last week and Georgia enters 6-1 (3-1 in the SEC). Recent series history tells us that the team that rushes for the most yards will win the rivalry contest. The team that has won the rushing battle has won this matchup each of the past 13 years, which could be good news for a Georgia. RB Swift has 752 yards rushing (6.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and leads a Georgia rushing game that is tops in the SEC, averaging 238.4 YPG (ranks 16th nationally). QB Jake Fromm is now a junior but while he's completing 70.7% of his passes, he has a modest nine TD passes (just three INTs), after producing ratios of 24-7 as a freshman and 30-6 as a sophomore. The Bulldogs do own an outstanding defense, allowing just 10.6 PPG (5th) on 267.1 YPG (7th). It's unlikely that Florida will out-rush Georgia, as the Gators leading rusher is Perine (a modest 460 yards / 4.6 YPC) and team is averaging only 142.8 YPG (90th). However, the Gators may just have an edge at QB (I believe they do), as since taking over for the injured Feleipe Franks, junior Kyle Trask has passed for 1,351 yards and 13 TDs (just 4 INTs) while completing 67.1 percent of his passes.It sure helps that he has a deep set of receivers, as Florida is one of three FBS schools (Eastern Michigan and Washington State are the others) to have four players with at least 275 receiving yards, at least 20 receptions and at least two TDs. Florida's D may not quite be in Georgia's class but the Gators are allowing just 15.8 PPG (12th) on 323.4 YPG (25th). Both schools have one loss, with each losing on the same day (Oct 12). Florida lost a 42-28 decision at now-No. 1 LSU, while Georgia lost 20-17 in double overtime at HOME against South Carolina (Bulldogs were a three-TD favorite). The Gators' 42-28 loss at LSU was MUCH closer than the final score. Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! Meanwhile, Georgia's home loss to South Carolina (Gamecocks are currently 3-5, after losing 41-21 to a bad Tennessee team), was just plain embarrassing. Fromm threw THREE interceptions and Georgia's offense was only able to put up 17 points against a defense that has since allowed 38 points at home to Florida and 41 points at Tennessee. Florida dominated then-No. 7 Auburn, holding an offense that has averaged 34.2 PPG on 415.4 YPG to 13 points and 269 yards in an 11-point win. Then, as noted above, Florida went toe-to-toe at LSU. In contrast, in Georgia lone game games vs a ranked opponent (at home against then-No. 7 Notre Dame), the Bulldogs barely got by, winning 23-17 (as 15.5-point favorite), as Fromm passed for just 187 yards. That win hardly looks impressive now, after Michigan exposed Notre Dame as a 'fraud,' routing the Fighting Irish 45-14 last Saturday. My bet says Fla handles Ga in this one and best of all, we are getting about a TD! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 7:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks 'jumped' all over the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday, taking a 58-42 lead at the half. However, Milwaukee got rolled in the second half, as the Celtics outscored them 74-47 in a 116-105 win. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 48 points on 18-of-28 shooting for Milwaukee but their teammates combined to shoot 37 percent and almost nobody could make a stop when it counted. The 2-2 Bucks continue a stretch in which they'll play NINE of 11 games away from home by taking on the Magic tonight in Orlando. The 2-2 Magic boast the top scoring defense in the Eastern Conference (93.8 PPG ranks 2nd in the NBA) but on the offensive end, have yet to score 100 points in a game. Orlando ranks 30th (last) in both scoring (95.8 PPG) and in FG percentage (39.5). Antetokounmpo, last year's MVP, is doing his usual thing averaging 23.8-13.5-8.0. Middleton is averaging 24 points over his last three games (he's 19-for-29 from the floor in the last two) and checks in averaging 20.8 & 6.5 through four games. The rest of the Bucks 'fell down' in Wednesday's loss at Boston but that's atypical. Bledsoe, Lopez and Matthews join Antetokounmpo and Middleton in the starting lineup and ALL average in double digits. Guard Hill (11.-3.8-4.8) plus swingmen Korver (9.3) and Connaughton (8.3) and PF Ilysova (8.5 & 7.3) come off the bench and ALL shoot better than 42.9% from three-point range (Korver leads with 50.0 percent). Milwaukee is averaging 119.2 PPG (4th) but is allowing 117.5 PPG (23rd). Orlando starts three guards in Fournier (17.8), Fultz (11.0) and Augustin (9.5 & 4.3 APG) with center Vicevic (15.8 & 11.3) and PF Gordon (9.0 & 6.3). Vucevic struggled to find his shooting touch through the first three games (hit 'rock bottom' at Toronto on Monday in going 1-for-13 from the floor) but scored 21 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in Wednesday's 95-83 victory over the Knicks. Orlando has to be at least slightly concerned over Gordon's slow start (see above), as he had averaged 17.6 & 7.9 and 16.0 & 7.4 the last two seasons. There is NOTHING wrong with Milwaukee's offense but its D is allowing 8.2 PPG more than it did last season, so while Milwaukee led all NBA teams in point-differential last season at plus-8.8, that figure sits at just plus-1.8 through four games of this season. Milwaukee had no success playing in Orlando from 2005 through 2015 but this Milwaukee team hardly resembles those past teams. The Bucks are off an embarrassing loss to the Celtics and will return home Sunday to host the defending champion Raptors on Sunday. Giannis and Co. were 17-4 ATS last season coming off a SU loss and the Bucks blew out Cleveland 129-112 in their first chance in that situation this year (Milwaukee had lost two nights earlier to Miami). Doing the math, that 18-4 ATS record translates to an 82% winning situation. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 7-0., joining the AFC's New England Patriots (8-0) as one of just TWO unbeatens in NFL 2019. The 49ers were among the early surprises in the NFC but they have now emerged as one of the front-runners to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco permitted just 10 points in three straight wins (Weeks 5-7) and then BLASTED the visiting Carolina Panthers (who came in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run) in Week 8, 51-13 last Sunday, Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ got off to an 0-3-1 start in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7, before coming back to earth in a 31-9 drubbing at New Orleans this past Sunday. Thursday's matchup will offer an intriguing subplot, featuring a showdown between the top-two picks in this year's NFL Draft, No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray of Arizona and No. 2 pick Nick Bosa.(DE) of San Francisco. Bosa earned a spot in the history books last week by becoming the third rookie to record at least three sacks and an interception in one game since the sack became an official stat in 1982. San Francisco's defense ranks 1st in total D (224.4 YPG) and 2nd in points allowed (11.0 PPG). QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of kudos for record as a starter (15-2 / 13-2 with SF) but his numbers are pretty average in 2019 (217.0 YPG with 9 TDs and 7 INTs). His receiving corps is fairly average as well but the team's running game ranks second in the NFL with 181.1 YPG. Little-known RBs like Breida (446 yards / 5.3 YPC) and Mostert (309 yards / 5.7 YPC) have seen former Atlanta Falcon Tevin Coleman really start to make a difference. He ran for 105 yards (9.5 YPC) with three TDs plus had a TD catch last Sunday vs the Panthers. Coleman missed three games earlier but now has 332 yards on 4.7 YPC with five TDs. In stark contrast to San Francisco's running game, Arizona is dealing with some serious issues in its backfield due to injuries to its top RBs, David Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). Those injuries necessitated the acquisition of Kenyan Drake from Miami on Monday. "I think Kenyan can come in and do some things that can fit what we need right now,” Kingsbury said of Drake, who rushed for 535 yards and had a career-high 53 receptions last season with the Dolphins. Murray is averaging 248.5 yards passing, completing 63.% with seven TDs and 4 INTs, while also rushing for 279 yards (two TDs). Arizona is averaging only 21.2 PPG (20th), more than a TD less then San Francisco (29.6 PPG) plus the Cards' D has struggled, ranking 29th in both points allowed (27.9) and yards allowed (407.1). At first blush, the 49ers are CLEARLY a better team than the Cards. Yes, the Cards won three in a row before their loss to the Saints, but those wins cane over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 3-21). However, the Cards are surely a better team than the Redskins, who at home in Week 7, lost just 9-0 to these 49ers. Aloso looming over this game is the fact that the Cards have beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times, holding San Francisco to 18 points or less in the last FOUR meetings! I'm taking the "big points" with this division home dag! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Ut Jazz at 10:05 ET. Paul George is still sidelined for the Clippers but Kawhi Leonard has opened the season averaging 27.0 PPG (on 51.9% shooting), while adding 6.5 RPG and 7.5 APG. He's had two, 30-point efforts in LA's 3-1 start, including scoring 30 points (seven rebounds and six assists) in Monday's 111-96 home victory over the Charlotte Hornets. The Clippers are the NBA's 3rd-highest scoring team (121.5 PPG) and will visit Utah Jazz, who are allowing an average of 91.5 PGG (best in the NBA), after squeaking out a 96-95 road win over the Phoenix Suns on Monday to move to 3-1, as well. Until George returns, the Clippers best players (behind Leonard) are guard Williams (22.2 & 5.2 APG) and forward Harrell (20.5 & 6.8), who both come off the bench. Williams is a three-time Sixth Man of the Year and has rattled off FOUR straight 20-point efforts . Utah center Rudy Gobert (9.0 & 10.3) established season bests of 15 points and 18 rebounds against the Suns and notably went 11-of-12 from the free-throw line. Guard Donovan Mitchell scored 25 points, his third 20-point outing of the season, and checks in averaging 24.0-5.-3.3. A HUGE addition for has been Bojan Bogdanovic. Mitchell and Bogdanovic have formed a nice 1-2 punch, with Bogdanovic averaging 23.7 PPG. Both players are shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and over 40 percent from three-point range. This is a classic offense vs defense matchup and yes the Jazz are averaging only 98.8 PPG (28th), but the Clippers have only held one opponent under 100 points (1-3 Charlotte), while allowing 112.5 PPG (20th). Quin Snyder has led the Jazz to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court and it's only a matter ot time until PG Conley breaks out of his early-season slump. The PG signed as a FA from Memphis, entering his first season in Salt Lake City averaging 20.5, 17.1 and 21.1 PPG the previous three seasons. The Jazz have won FIVE of the past seven meetings with the Clippers, including 111-105 in the lone matchup in Salt Lake City last season, behind 32 points from Mitchell. The Jazz are 57-25 SU at home the last two seasons (have opened 2-0 TY, outscoring opponents 106.5-to-91.5 PGG) and really have no 'number' to cover in this one. The Clippers allowed 122 points at Golden St in a blowout win and 130 at Phoenix in an eight-point loss. Jazz take this one, as defense tops offense! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-28-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs have opened 2-0, rallying to win a sloppy opener against the NY Knicks 120-111 on Wednesday but then delivered much better effort in knocking off Washington 124-122 on Saturday. However, both wins have been non-covers. San Antonio is home for a third straight game to open the new season and looks to start 3-0 for the THIRD time in four seasons when the team completes its homestand Monday against the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland lost its home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland has won back-to-back road games to move to 2-1 on the season, posting a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, before outlasting the Mavs 121-119 last night in Dallas. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. Lillard is a "special" player who I think is under-appreciated. Consider this. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list.Lillard has opened averaging 31.7-4.0-6.) and McCollum got untracked last night at Dallas, scoring 35 points. McCollum was 13-of-36 from the floor in averaging 15.5 points in the team's first two contests but made 13-of-26 shots in Sunday’s victory while adding six rebounds, four assists and a pair of steals (McCollum is averaging 22.0 after three games). Center Hassan Whiteside, who was acquired from Miami in the offseason, was held to six points against Dallas but hauled in 14 rebounds and has connected on 17 of his 21 field-goal attempts in the first three games (14.7 & 14.0 thru three games). San Antonio's 1-2 'punch' consists of PF LaMarcus Aldridge and guard DeMar DeRozan. Aldridge is off to a strong start with 49 points in the first two games and has pulled down 17 rebounds. He needs 14 more rebounds to become the 72nd player in NBA history with 8,000. DeRozan struggled against the Knicks (3-of-10 from the floor) but score 26 in Saturday’s win Fellow guards Murray (18.5) and Forbes (18.0) are also off to solid starts for the Spurs. Popovich has limited the minutes of Murray in the first two games after the 23-year-old missed all of last season due to knee surgery, making his 18.5 PPG average in more impressive, as his 5.0 APG. This is San Antonio's third straight home game, while Portland i on a four-game road trip and will be playing its THIRD game in four night in this one. The home team won all four meetings last season, while covering each one as well. Portland is still waiting for center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) to return from his leg fracture plus many of its role players from last year are elsewhere. Aminu is in Orlando, Kanter in Boston, Seth Curry in Dallas , Layman in Minnesota and Turner in Atlanta. Home team wins and covers again, tonight. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-28-19 | Pacers -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers bowed out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. These two met last Wednesday night in the season-opener for both and the Pistons upset the Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse 119-110 behind a monster game from Andre Drummond (32 & 23) The Pacers followed up their season-opening loss to Detroit by falling 110-99 at Cleveland on Saturday and are looking for more intensity on the defensive end.. "They pretty much did whatever they wanted," Indiana coach Nate McMillan told reporters after the latest setback. "We're not stopping anyone. They dominated the paint once again. More physical than we were throughout this game. ... More aggressive team. More scrappy team. We dug ourselves a hole we couldn't get out of." Indiana couldn't handle Drummond (see above) last Wednesday and struggled to defend the Cleveland frontcourt of Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson in Saturday's loss (the duo combined for points and rebounds). The bright spot for Indiana has been Malcolm Brogdon, who has averaged 26 points and 10.5 assists while recording a double-double in both games. Brogdon came from Milwaiukee but two other newcomers had show n promise as well, with TJ Warren averaging 11.0 PPG (former Sun) and Lamb has averaged 10.0 PPG (former Hornet). Detroit is still waiting for star forward Blake Griffin ( 24.5-7.5-5.4 ) to make his season debut (knee issue) and is also working around an injury to starting point guard Reggie Jackson. His back problem made him sit out the game vs Philly, after averaging just 5.0 PPG (on 36.4% shooting) in the first two games. Detroit's best player in the early going has been former MVP Derrick Rose (25.3, on 64.% shooting & 5.0 APG), but the team is reluctant to push the oft-injured star past 30 minutes and is committed to keeping him with the second unit (he's averaged 26.3 minutes). Indiana is 0-2 but I see them avenging last Wednesday's home loss, as the Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Griffin is expected out until sometime in November and PG Jackson is listed as doubtful for this one. Indiana has a strong inside duo with Sabonis averaging 20.5 & 9.0 and Turner 18.0 & 10.0 plus the team's bench HAS to better than its 7 of 23 effort (16 points) last Wednesday. Pacers get that first "W." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. This Week 8 SNF game on NBC was expected to be a celebration of two of the NFL's storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that played in the first Super Bowl. The teams feature two transcendent QBs, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. However, Mahomes, the NFL's reigning MVP dislocating his kneecap in last week’s 30-6 win at Denver. He remarkably practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday but Matt Moore is expected to start in his place. The Packers are atop the NFC Central at 6-1, but the Vikings loom at 6-2. The 5-2 Chiefs have some 'breathing room' in the AFC West, as Oakland is 3-3, while Denver and San Diego lag at 2-5. Rodgers 'lit up' the Raiders last Sunday, passing for 429 yards and five TDs, plus added a rushing TD in a 42-24 win over Oakland in Green Bay. Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,109 yards with a 13-2 ratio, despite the fact that the team's best WR, Davante Adams (turf toe), has missed the last three games (all GB wins). He’s likely to sit out again on Sunday plus TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both battling ankle injuries (both are expected to play). Even Rodgers is not 100 percent, as he's playing with a tweaked knee. Rodgers has been effective despite the fact that the Packers have failed to crack 80 rushing yards in FOUR of their seven contests. Green Bay ranks 20th with 99.3 YPG on the ground. The Green Bay D allows 381.0 YPG (26th) but is somehow holding opponents to 19.9 PPG (9th). Kansas City possesses the No. 3 offense in the league in both points scored (28.9 PPG) and total yards (400.4 YPG). Like Green Bay, KC gets very little from its rushing game, which averages only 82.3 YPG (25th). Of course, without Mahomes (65.1%, averaging 323.1 YPG with a 15-1 ratio), some of the team's offensive prowess will be affected. However, expect KC to get more creative. RBs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have more talent than they shown in 2019 plus WR Tyreek Hill is back making 'waves,' while TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (541). Kansas City’s defense has been maligned but the Chiefs have forced turnovers in SIX of their seven contests, including four games with multiple takeaways. Green Bay has only been a road favorite FOUR times the last two seasons (1st time in 2019 in this contest), going 2-2 SU, with both wins coming in OT. I expect KC to 'circle the wagons' here on this Sunday night game behind Matt Moore. Note that KC has SEVEN players averaging between 13.4 and 17.7 YPC. Moore will be "good enough," here. Take the points but I don't expect we'll need them. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Dal Mavs at 7:05 ET. The Trail Blazers lost their home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland evened its record with a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, as Damian Lillard scored 35 points. As for Dallas, which won a modest 33 games last season, the Mavs have opened 2-0 with a 108-100 home win over the Wizards (Weds), followed by a 123-116 at New Orleans on Friday. Dallas is off to its best start since the 2004-05 team began 4-0 and will try to stay unbeaten tonight, when the Mavs host the Blazers. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. The Blazers are waiting for center Jusuf Nurkic to recover from a leg fracture suffered last March but he is likely out until at least February. His absence makes Al-Farouq Aminu’s off-season departure hurt even more. However, the Blazers are thrilled with what they've seen out of center Hassan Whiteside in the first two games. He's averaged 19.0 & 14.0. Lillard has averaged 33.5 PPG on 53.7% shooting but McCollum has averaged only 15.5 PPG on 36.1% shooting. Dallas hasn't made the postseason since 2015-16 and last won a playoff series in its 2010-11 championship season but has ridden Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis to a 2-0 start. Doncic is averaging 29.5-9.5-6.5 and Porzingis 23.5 & 4.0. Doncic had 25 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists versus Sacramento, giving him nine career triple-doubles, the most by a player younger than 21 in NBA history. Delon Wright is hoping he's found a home in Dallas (this is his sixth season and THIRD team) and he added 20 points, seven rebounds and five steals in Friday's win. I'm not sure how many know just how good Lillard is but maybe this will help. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list. However, even last year's Portland team which made the Western Conference Finals, had trouble with the a 33-win Dallas team. The clubs split the four-game series last season (home team was 4-0), with the contests decided by a total of just 21 points. What's more, Dallas has covered FIVE straight and 19 of the last 25 against Portland, going 10-3 ATS the last 13 at American Airlines Arena.Dallas moves to 3-0. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Panthers +6 v. 49ers | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 6-0. The 49ers will welcome the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco for this Week 8 contest, as one of two undefeated teams in the league. The Panthers entered 2019 off a 7-9 season and opened 0-2 but Carolina has rallied to win four straight (4-0 ATS). San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of hype (more in a bit) but what about Carolina's Kyle Allen? He took over for the injured Cam Newton and Allen is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first five starts without throwing an interception (his first start in that stretch came at the end of the 2018 season / 4-0 in 2019). Allen is hardly prolific but he's completing 65.6% for an average of 226.8 YPG with seven TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 106.0. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL with 618 rushing yards (4.9 YPC / 7 TDs) and 35 catches for 305 yards (2 TDs). He ranks second in the league in yards from scrimmage (923) and is tied for the NFL lead with nine TDs. Few think of Carolina as an offensive team but the Panthers rank 5th at 27.7 PPG. The team's defensive numbers are middle-of-the-road (22.2 PPG allowed ranks 15th and 344.0 YPG allowed ranks 12th) but Carolina has forced 15 turnovers, second to only New England's 22. Speaking of defenses, the 49ers' defense is in the midst of a truly dominant stretch. San Francisco is coming off a 9-0 win at Washington and the 49ers have held THREE straight opponents to seven points or less, plus to fewer than 200 total yards (note: SF is only the SIXTH team to do so since 1990!). The 49ers currently rank second in both points allowed (10.7 per) and yards allowed (223.5 per). QB Jimmy Garoppolo keeps getting credit for his record as a starting QB and he should. He was 2-0 in New England subbing for Tom Brady and has now opened 12-2 with San Francisco. However, he's got a modest 19-14 TD-to-INT ratio in his 14 games as the Niners' starting QB, including a 7-6 ratio in 2019, with San Francisco ranking 25th in passing yards (214.5 per) thi season. The San Francisco D and its unsung running game (ranks 2nd at 172.7 YPG with virtual unknowns) has been the real key to the team's success. Garoppolo is NOT a polished QB (see above numbers TY) and his receiving corps is below average. Meanwhile, the Panthers have taken off since Kyle Allen replaced a hobbled Cam Newton (note: Carolina was 0-8 in Newton’s last eight starts). He is efficient and the Panthers have rallied around him. Carolina is 11-5 as a road dog the last four-plus seasons (2-0 in 2019) and the Panthers have won SIX straight meetings with the 49ers, including a 23-3 victory in their last trip to San Francisco in 2017. It's also possible that the 49ers could be 'peeking ahead' to next Thursday's NFC West game at Arizona. Take the points but I seen an OUTRIGHT win by Carolina. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Warriors -1 v. Thunder | Top | 92-120 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET. A Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder matchup no longer features the same allure, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook out of the picture. Rather, it's a matchup of two teams searching for their 2019-20 'identities.' Golden St lost Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to injury (he's recovery from knee surgery). Golden State also said goodbye to key veterans Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala from a team that made FIVE straight NBA Finals appearances (three wins). OKC lost Durant via free agency to Golden St after the 2015-16 season and this past off-season, traded away Russell Westbrook plus Paul George left via free agency for the Clippers, after a two-season stay with the Thunder. The Warriors hardly looked like a contender in their season-opener against the Clippers on Thursday, as they were run off their home floor by LA in a 141-122 loss. The Clippers were the team that shot 'lights out' from beyond the arc (18 of 32), while the Warriors shot just 39.4 percent a s team. Curry has 23 points but made just 2-of-11 from three-point range and committed eight turnovers in 30 minutes. "This is not a one-off, this is the reality," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters after the loss. "There's going to be nights like this this year. You've got to play through it, you've got to keep fighting and keep getting better. That's the plan." Draymond Green said it better, telling reporters, "We (expletive) sucked! And we gotta get better. I'm not a coach, so I'm not about to go watch a film and say, 'Oh, well we can build on this.' I really don't give a damn about what we can build on. We sucked tonight, and we gotta get better overall. And that's just what it is." Chris Paul came to OKC in the Westbrook deal but he's averaged only 14.0-5.-3.5 in OKC's first two games, while shooting 41.7 percent. The lone bright spot offensively for Oklahoma City in the first two games has been guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who came over in the trade that sent Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers. He is getting a chance at a larger role and he's averaged 27.0 PPG on 50.0% shooting, including 45.5% on threes. However, OKC has opened with a road loss at Utah (100-95) and a 97-85 home setback against the Washington Wizards on Friday. I've often said that Paul is the NBA's most overrated superstar, as he's NEVER led his team to even a SINGLE Conference Final (some leader: He was held to six points and committed five turnovers in Friday's home-opener). Sure, the Warriors are down but I'm not ready to cont them out. The Warriors will be glad to see that Paul George and Russell Westbrook have moved elsewhere plus it's VERY possible OKC may just be "peeking ahead" to Monday's game in Houston, where former Thunder stars Harden and Westbrook now 'live.' Golden St bounces back in a big way! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles 'limp' into Buffalo for a Week 8 game with a 3-4 record, after getting crushed 37-10 in Dallas last Sunday night. Welcoming the Eagles will be the Buffalo Bills, who at 5-1, are off to their best start since the 2008 season.This marks Philly's THIRD straight road game, as prior to the loss to Dallas, Philly lost 38-20 at Minnesota. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road in 2019, allowing 31.5 PPG. Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, as the Bills rank 3rd in both scoring (15.2 PPG) and overall D (292.7 YPG). The Bills returned from a Week 6 bye to win 31-21 at home vs the winless Dolphins in Week 7. Carson Wentz is completing 61.3% for 1,649 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs on the season but it's been reported that an anonymous teammate was critical of the QB's play. The criticism is probably fair, as Wentz has committed six turnovers in Philadelphia's three road losses. Wentz has NOT thrown the ball downfield, as the team's top-three pass-catchers, TE Ertz (35) plus WRs Jeffrey (26) and Agholor (25) are averaging only between 9.7 and 11.5 YPC. Philly's running game is just average (111.7 YPG ranks 14th) and its defense has underachieved (26.6 PPG ranks 27th). Buffalo QB Josh Allen has led his team to a 5-1 start but his numbers are VERY average. He's completing 62.4% for 1,324 yards with as many INTs as TDs (seven each). He's been helped by a running game that averages 135.8 YPG (7th), led by the ageless Frank Gore (388 yards on 4.5 YPC). However, Buffalo is 5-1 because of its defense. Then again, maybe Buffalo is 5-1 because of the competition it has played. Buffalo's lone loss was a a very competitive 16-10 defeat at the hands of unbeaten Pats but look at the team's FIVE wins. The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Those five teams owned a combined record of 6-27 (.182). Considering the competition, are the Bills really a quality team? My bet says N-O! Yes, the Eagles has struggled so far but I'm not about sell them short, just yet. Playing a THIRD straight game on the road is NEVER a positive but after playing at the Vikings and Cowboys, I believe playing at the Bills is a "step down in class." I checked a number of Week 1 NFL power ratings and if Philly had played at Buffalo in Week 1, the Eagles would have been a four to six-point favorite. Take ANY points available but expect the Eagles to win pretty comfortably. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | Top | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The reigning NBA champion Toronto Raptors were lucky to escape on "Ring Night' (Tuesday), as they needed OT to put away the New Orleans Pelicans, 130-122 ('miracle' cover). However, Friday night's game at Boston against the Celtics had nothing to do with good or bad luck, as the Raptors coughed up a seven-point lead in the final 10 minutes of a 112-106 setback. The Raptors are scheduled to play 14 sets of back-to-back games this season, slightly above the league average of 12.4, and the first of those 14 comes tonight in Chicago. The Bulls won just 22 games in 2018-19 but has come within a 'whisker' of opening 2-0 this season. The Bulls dropped a 126-125 decision at Charlotte on Wednesday, before winning 110-102 at Memphis last night. Both teams played last night but for Chicago, it is the team's home opener. Pascal Siakam has been outstanding in the first two games of the post-Kawhi Leonard era for Toronto, totaling 67 points and 26 rebounds while going 7-for-12 from three-point range. Veteran PG Kyle Lowry has stepped up without Leonard as well, averaging 25.5 points and 6.5 assists in the first two games of the season. Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka has scored 13 points off the bench in each of the first two games. Toronto head coach Nick Nurse will need to develop a deeper rotation (especially in back-to-backs like this), as only eight Raptors logged time in Tuesday's season-opening victory against New Orleans and just nine did so during a 112-106 road loss to the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Zach LaVine scored a modest 16 points in the season opener but was 13-for-23 from the floor in Friday’s victory (37 points) and grabbed six rebounds, as Chicago outscored Memphis 63-42 in the second half. Power forward Lauri Markkanen recorded 35 points and 17 rebounds in the season-opener but then missing nine of his 10 FG attempts (scored just nine points) plus turned over the ball five times against the Grizzlies. How about some consistency, guys? In contrast, rookie guard Coby White has been impressive in his first two NBA contests, scoring 17 points in the opener and coming back with 25 while adding six assists in the win over the Grizzlies (he scored 21 points in Chicago's big second half). Toronto swept Chicago 4-0 last season (average MOV was 19.2 points!) and note that Kawhi played in just two of them. Obviously, Kawhi was the key to Toronto's title last season but while the Raptors were 41-19 in the regular season in his 60 appearances, they were also 17-5 when he was in “load management” mode. Let's also not forget that Toronto also still has SIX of its seven major contributors back (only Green left with Kawhi) and the Raptors have 'owned' Chicago, having won NINE in a row over the Bulls. Let's also remember that Chicago was a 'money-burning' 14-27 ATS at home last season. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 55 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Year is on Michigan at 7:30 ET. No. 8 Notre Dame looks to stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot when it visits No. 19 Michigan on Saturday. The Fighting Irish lost 23-17 to then-No. 3 Georgia back on Sep 21 but have since won THREE in a row, including a 30-27 victory over USC on Oct 12. To stay in the mix for a second consecutive playoff appearance, Notre Dame MUST win at "The Big House" on Saturday night. "Playing at Michigan is always a great challenge and one that our guys are excited about," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. "We have to go on the road again and handle all the distractions there and we look forward to a classic matchup." The Wolverines fell behind 21-0 at Penn St last Saturday night but fought back, although "Big Blue" would ultimately lose, 28-21. Ronnie Bell dropped a pass in the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:01 remaining, which would have potentially sent the game to overtime. In the end, it was another "close but no cigar" for Michigan, as the Wolverines fell to 1-10 against top-10 teams under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan is not thinking CFP but it is thinking, "we had better win one of these games, soon!" RB Tony Jones Jr. racked up a career-high 176 rushing yards in the win against USC to top the 100-yard mark for the third consecutive game. ND's running game rushed for a season-high 311 yards but on the season is averaging a good but not great, 192.0 YPG (41st). QB Ian Book was 17-of-32 for 165 yards and a touchdown to go along with a TD on the ground but as I'll note later, I don't think much of him. Notre Dame's defense is very good, allowing 16.8 PPG (15th) on 348.0 YPG(41st). Michigan has typically played excellent defense under Harbaugh and this year's unit is allowing 19.0 PPG (21st) on 285.0 YPG (14th). The lack of a consistent offense has been a problem, as Michigan is averaging just 29.0 PPG (68th) on 392.1 YPG (81st). QB Shea Patterson is completing only 57.4% with nine TDs and four INTs but did have his best game of the season at Penn St, going 24-of-41 for 276 yards plus ran for a TD. Freshman RB Zach Charbonnet ran for 81 yards and two TDs against the Nittany Lions and has 457 yards on the season (4.9 YPC & 7 TDs). These two longtime powerhouses didn't play from 2015-17 but the series was renewed last season when Notre Dame held off a late Michigan surge for a season-opening 24-17 win. My bet says ND is overrated and let me note that QB Book may have a 14-2 ratio through seven games but 10 of his TD passes came against lightweights New Mexico and Bowling Green. Against Georgia, Virginia and USC, he has three TDs, two INTs and has averaged only 201.7 YPG passing. Yes, Michigan has that pathetic record agianst top-10 opponents but I question whether ND is actually a top-10 team. Let me add that here at home, Michigan beat then-No. 14 Iowa 10-3 on Oct 5 and last year, beat then-No. 14 Penn St 42-7 and then-No. 15 Wisconsin 38-13 in "The Big House." Michigan has won 12 straight at home, including going 4-0 at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 31.5-to-11.2. Notre Dame hasn't played in Ann arbor since 2013 but the Fighting Irish have lost SEVEN of their last eight visits to Michigan Stadium. "Big Blue" wins this one in a big way and at least "keeps hope alive" until Ohio St comes to town on Nov 30. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Arizona State -3.5 v. UCLA | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Arizona St at 7:30 ET. Arizona State is 5-2 and UCLA 2-5 but both teams are 2-2 in Pac-12 play. No. 24 ASU travels to the Rose Bowl on Saturday, looking to bounce back from its worst offensive output in 11 years. Utah ended Arizona State's streak of 125 games with more than 10 points in last Saturday’s 21-3 victory.UCLA opened 0-3 but has gone 2-2 in conference play, after ending an 11-year drought against Stanford by cruising to a 34-16 win against the Cardinal a week ago Thursday. Utah did not allow Arizona State’s offense to cross midfield in the first half and allowed only 136 yards of total offense for the game. “I told our football team that we’re going to find out a lot about ourselves this next week,” head coach Herm Edwards told reporters. “Utah hit us in the mouth, and they beat us up. Credit to them. The second half of the season will tell us a lot about where we’re at.” Freshman QB Freshman Jayden Daniels threw for 363 yards and recorded four touchdowns in a 38-34 win over Washington State but at Salt Lake City, he was 4-of-18 for 25 yards and an interception. RB Eno Benjamin ran for 104 yards on 15 carries against the Utes, accounting for almost all of ASU's offense. Benjamin ran for 1,632 yards in 2018 (with 16 TDs) but has a more modest 633 yards in 2019. ASU's defense is allowing 18.1 PPG (18th) on 352.7 YPG (43rd). The Bruins snapped a two-game losing skid with their win over Stanford, as QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson returned after missing one game due to injury and passed for two TDs and ran for another. RB Joshua Kelley ran for 176 yards. The Bruins averaged only 78 YPG rushing in their 0-3 start but they are averaging 221.5 YPG on the ground in their last four contests. Defensively, UCLA ranks 115th in points allowed (34.6 PPG), as well as in total defense, allowing 459.7 YPG. While it looks as if Oregon has taken control of the Pac-12 North, the South is far from settled. Utah and USC (Trojans play Friday night at Colorado) are tied for the division lead at 3-1 with Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA all a game back at 2-2. The Bruins still face Utah and USC, while the Sun Devils have USC and Arizona remaining on their schedule. I believe ASU is the much better team and ASU already owns road wins over teams ranked at the time of those games (won at then-No. 18 Mich St and at then-No. 15 Cal). UCLA's two wins have come 67-63 at Wash St (Bruins trailed 49-17 in the late 3Q) and over Stanford, which was down to its third-string QB. Chip Kelly is just 5-13 SU since coming to UCLA and unlike Herm Edwards of ASU (12-8 since coming to Tempe, with FOUR wins over ranked opponents), hasn't beaten a ranked team yet. Don't expect that to change here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Troy +2 v. Georgia State | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -106 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Play is on Troy at 7:00 ET. Troy is 3-3 (1-1 in SBC) and Georgia St 5-2 (2-1 SBC) as the two schools meet Saturday night in Atlanta.Both have excelelnt offenses, led by good QBs . Troy's Barker (64.4% 16-6 ratio) leads an offense averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) on 449.2 YPG (33rd), while Ga St's Ellington (65.7% 16-3 ratio) leads an offense averaging 34.4 PPG (36th) on 464.3 YPG (25th). Neither team has much of a defense but Troy owns advantage, allowing 28.8 PPG (79th) to Ga St's 38.9 PPG (117th). The Panthers were not predicted to contend in the Sun Belt's Est Division but the team has clearly overachieved (just ask Tennessee). As for Troy, the Trojans were expected to battle Appalachian St for the East's title. Sometimes, revenge is an angle worth playing but NOT in this case. Troy's won EACH of the last three years against Georgia St, including 37-20 last season, despite losing starting QB Barker to a season-ending knee injury late in first half. Barker's fully healthy now and he out-duels his counterpart Ellington, as Troy makes it FOUR in a row. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Central Florida v. Temple +11 | Top | 63-21 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* NCAAF Underdog Shocker of the Month is on Temple at 7:00 ET. UCF and Temple are each 5-2, including 2-1 the American Athletic Conference East Division standings. Both UCF and Temple trail Cincinnati by one game in the division, as they get to square off for a key AAC battle. The Knights have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, most recently a 41-28 victory over East Carolina, while tehe Owls are looking to bounce back after absorbing a 45-21 defeat at SMU. Dillon Gabriel threw two TDs and ran for another score in UCF's win over ECU. The Knights' QB has exactly 2,000 passing yards on the season and an excellent 17-5 ratio. WR Davis has 47 catches for 833 yards with 10 TDs. The running game features four players with 300-plus yards and it averages 212.3 YPG (26th). UCF ranks 5th in scoring (44.3 PPG) on 553.9 YPG 92nd). Defensively, UCF's numbers are solid, allowing 21.7 PPG (39th) on 349.7 YPG (42nd). Temple was dominated start to finish by SMU and was outgained 457-204 in last Saturday's lopsided loss. The Owls allowed six TD passes and 457 passing yards, leading head coach Rod Carey to say: "There's a lot to fix in all areas. The good news is it's correctable. The bad news is it cost us today." QB Anthony Russo threw for 409 yards in the season opener versus Bucknell but since has not surpassed 300 yards in any game, including efforts of 127, 224 and 171 yards over the last three outings. The good news is that his TD-to-INT ratio is 14-6, after it was 14-14 last season. Even after last week's 'ugly' loss at SMU, Temple's D checks in allowing 22.7 PPG (43rd) on 373.0 YPG (55th). Most are well aware that UCF went a combined 25-1 in 2017 and 2018 but the 2019 season has been highlighted (low-lighted?) by a trio of streak-enders. UCF lost 35-34 at Pitt on Sep 21, ending the school's 27-game regular season win streak and then on Oct 4th at Cincy, UCF's streak of 19 straight AAC wins came to and, as did its streak of scoring 30 points or more in 32 straight game, as the Bearcats won 27-24. Temple has proven it can bounce back off a loss and the Owls are 4-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 32.5-to-14.8 PPG). Temple also checks in 8-1 ATS (89% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. As noted above, this 2019 UCF edition does NOT compare to the 2017 or 2018 ones. Take the points and look for a possible SU win by Temple! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Texas +1 v. TCU | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -111 | 118 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET. No. 15 Texas somehow escaped with a 50-48 win last Saturday at home vs Kansas (Longhorns were ), when sophomore Cameron Dicker made a 33-yard FG as time expired. Texas totaled 638 yards against Kansas but also allowed 569 in the shootout win, one which left head coach Tom Herman with mixed feelings. "We've got a ton of work to do, obviously, but we'll figure that out. We're happy that we found a way to win," Herman told reporters. "We're going to celebrate the win and obviously come ready to improve the things that we are deficient at right now and enhance the things that we do well and make sure that we're doing more and more of them." The 5-2 Longhorns (3-1 in the Big 12) will visit Fort Worth on Saturday to take on 3-3 TCU (1-2 in the Big-12). The Horned Frogs were 3-1 but have lost back-to-back road games, 49-24 loss at Iowa State and 24-17 at Kansas State. The Texas offense revolves around junior QB Sam Ehlinger, who accounted for 490 total yards (399 passing, 91 rushing) against Kansas and has passed for 2,057 yards and 21 TDs while being intercepted just three times (he's completing 69.4%). Texas is averaging 40.9 PPG (9th) on 482.0 YPG (15th) but the Longhorns have repeatedly struggled on defense, allowing 30.7 PPG (96th) on 469.9 YPG (119th).Texas enters this contest having allowed 30 or more points in FOUR straight games! The Horned Frogs seem committed to freshman QB Max Duggan, despite consecutive road losses. He's completing only 56.3% for 874 yards (almost 1,200 yards fewer than Ehlinger) and while he has a modest nine TD passes, he's yet to throw an interception in 142 attempts, the second-best streak in program history. Gary Patterson teams always play strong defense and this year's unit is no different. TCU is allowing only 284.0 YPG, tops in the Big-12 and 13th in the nation. However, TCU is allowing 24.7 PPG, which ranks a more modest 53rd. Then again, the Horned Frogs have allowed a national-low 76 first downs. Texas is the highest-ranked two-loss team in the AP poll and with good reason, as the Longhorns' two losses have each come by seven points to current No. 2 LSU and current No. 5 Oklahoma. Last week's 'scare' should only give Texas greater focus in this one. Yes, the Texas defense is a liability but TCU is just too one-dimensional to take real advantage of it. Sam Ehlinger 'saved' the Longhorns' season last Saturday against Kansas (399 yards passing and four TDs), when he bailed out Texas with a drive in the final 71 seconds to set up Cameron Dicker's winning FG. No such dramatics needed here, as Texas rolls. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh -5 | Top | 16-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Pittsburgh at 12:00 ET. Many thought that Miami's 17-9 win over then-No. 20 Virginia on Oct 11 was a "turning" point in the 'Canes season but just eight days later, Miami lost 28-21 (in OT) at home to Ga Tech as an 18-point favorite. That's the same Ga Tech team that lost at home (as a four-TD favorite) to The Citadel on Sep 14, an FCS team. The Hurricanes visit Pittsburgh on Saturday to face a surging Panthers team which has rebounded from a season-opening 30-14 home loss to Virginia. Pitt has won FIVE of six since that defeat, falling only 17-10 at Penn St (as a 17-point dog), which is currently the AP's No. 6 team. Pitt has won FOUR in a row since the Penn St loss, going 3-1 ATS.The home team has won THREE straight in this series, after the visitor had won FIVE in a row. Manny Diaz may be in his first season as Miami's head coach but he already finds himself on the proverbial "hot seat," after last weekend's 28-21 overtime loss to a Georgia Tech. "I’ll take the negativity. I’m responsible for it, and I’ll accept it,” Diaz said Monday in a press conference. "And it sucks that we’re having to go through this. No one’s more disappointed in our record than I am. But I am also as confident as ever that this team will continue to stick together and this team will continue to fight for one another. And the results are going to come." QB Perry completed 16-of-28 passes for 188 yards and two TDs to go along with a rushing score last Saturday but both he and freshman Jarren Williams, who beat out Perry for the starting job in fall camp, are nursing shoulder injuries and it's uncertain who will start Saturday. The passing game is NOT Miami's biggest concern, as the two QBs have combined to average 279.6 YPG through the air (29th). However, the running games adds little help, averaging 131.0 YPG (102nd) on 4.1 YPC. The defensive numbers look good (20.4 PPG ranks 29th and 298.3 YPG ranks 19th) but the bottom line is that Minmi is 3-4 overall, including 1-3 in the ACC. Meanwhile, Pitt is 2-1 in the ACC Coastal, trailing only 3-1 Virginia. The head-to-head loss to the Cavs could cost Pitt in the end but the Panthers have set their sights on a second straight Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division title. Pitt upset UCF 35-34 (as a 9-point home dog) back on Sep 21 plus its last two games has won ACC contests 33-30 over Duke and 27-0 over Syracuse, BOTH on the road! Pittsburgh raised its FBS-best sack total to 36 with nine against Syracuse, while QB Kenny Pickett passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns in last Friday's 27-20 win. Like Miami, Pitt has moved the ball through the air (270.3 YPG ranks 36th) but Pitt's running game is even worse than Miami's, averaging 120.6 YPG (109th) on just 3.4 YPC. Pitt's D pretty much matches Miami's, allowing 22.1 PPG (41st) on 302.9 YPG (21st). A victory over the Hurricanes would give Pitt five consecutive wins for the first time since 2009, when Dave Wannstedt's Panthers reeled off six straight. As for Miami, it is proving just as unreliable for Manny Diaz as it was for Mark Richt (FYI...Diaz served on Richt's staff). I noted above that Pitt won the ACC Coastal title last season but will add that the Panthers will NOT forget the 'Canes trouncing them 24-3 in Miami on Nov 24. That was Pitt's final game of the regular season and it came AFTER Pitt had already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh (in 2017's regular-season finale), it was ranked No. 2 in the country but lost 24-14 in Pickett's first start. Pittsburgh is a team in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, while with Miami, it's just the opposite. Pitt has lost to Penn St just 17-10 (Nittany Lions are averaging 40.0 PPG) and beat UCF, ending that team's 27-game regular season winning streak. It's Homecoming for Pitt and I expect the Panthers to roll. Lay it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The Jazz are playing in the 'loaded' Western Conference but Quin Snyder has led the team to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Reports are that the Jazz have signed him to a long-term contract extension and it's well-deserving. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court. The Jazz opened the season with an unimpressive 100-95 victory over the now-depleted OKC Thunder and tonight will visit Staples Center to take on the Lakers. The Lakers were outclassed by the Clippers on Tuesday night (many teams will be this season), losing 112-102. Utah's star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell scored 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting and collected a career-best 12 rebounds in Wednesday's win. Mitchell became the fourth different player in Utah history to have at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in a season opener, joining Hall of Famers Karl Malone (four times) and Adrian Dantley ,as well as Carlos Boozer. However, the team's new PG, Mike Conley, suffered through a horrific 1-of-16 shooting performance while scoring five points in his team debut. Some good news was that Bojan Bogdanovic, another key off-season addition, scored 16 points in 24 minutes, despite missing part of the game after twisting his left ankle. The Lakers jumped out to a 13-2 lead over the Clippers on Tuesday night but were quickly caught. However, a 15-0 run in the third quarter put the Lakers ahead but they folded down the stretch, getting outscored 27-17 in the 4th quarter. Davis had 25 points and 10 rebounds in his LA debut, while LBJ added 18 points, nine rebounds and eight assists (shot just 7 of 19). The surprising star was guard Danny Green, who has 28 points on 10-14 shooting (including 7 of 9 on threes). There's been a lot of hype with A.D. joining LBJ in LA but it's fair to say the jury is still out on the Lakers (Kuzma returning will give us a better idea). That said, the Jazz were a 50-win team last season, while the Lakers won just 37 games. Still, the Lakers beat the Jazz in both games played at Staples, one with LBJ and one without. The Lakers have to be a little bit 'pissed' at losing Tuesday's game vs the Clippers (and Kawhi), so I think the Jazz are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the 2018-19 season by 'aying an egg' at Philly on Wednesday, losing 107-93. All five Philly starters scored in double digits, while the Celtics shot 36.7% as a team (including 26.9% on threes), with newcomer Kemba Walker scoring 12 points on 4-of-18 shooting. The Raptors began their title defense with a 130-122 overtime win against New Orleans on Tuesday at home. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet scored 34 points apiece as Toronto had a successful first step in its post-Kawhi Leonard era. However, the Raptors never came close to putting away the Pelicans (playing with Zion and MANY new players). VanVleet started just 28 games during Toronto's title run after coming off the bench exclusively in his first two seasons but he figures to be a catalyst for the starting five and showed his readiness in the opener by shooting 12-for-18 from the floor and dishing out a team-high seven assists (34 points were a career-high). Siakam's effort was no surprise, as he was the NBA's Most Improved Player in the regular season and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. Toronto played with a short bench on Tuesday, as just eight players got "PT." The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). However, Walker 'flopped' in his Boston debut (see above) and while Jayson Tatum scored 21, he was only 8-of-22 from the floor, including 4-of-14 inside the arc. The bright spot in the opener was the play of forward Gordon Hayward. He averaged just 11.5 PPG in primarily coming off the bench in 2018-19, his first season back from a devastating leg injury sustained during his first game as a Celtic in 2017. However, back in the starting rotation, Hayward scored 25 on Wednesday to pace the team, ahead of Tatum's 21. Boston couldn’t handle Phiily's frontcourt of Embiid-Horford and Harris plus Simmons added a line of 24-8-9. However, expect a bounce-back here at the TD Garden. The Raptors were VERY lucky to cover on "Ring Night," despite a career-high from VanVleet and a monster game from Siakam. The Raptors can't count on similar efforts here, as the Celtics make their home debut. Conversely, look for Walker to put his Wednesday effort behind him in front of his new home crowd. Boston owns FIVE straight home wins over Toronto, going 4-1 ATS. This is Boston's night! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Golden St Warriors have reached the NBA Finals in each of the last five seasons, winning the title three times. However, for the first time since the 2014-15 Warriors won the title, Golden State will enter a regular season without being the favorites in the Western Conference. The Warriors lost Kevin Durant to free agency after falling to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals last spring and are also expected to spend most (all?) of season without All-Star guard Klay Thompson. Also, a key contributor to those championship teams, Andre Iquodala, is playing in Memphis. The Warriors played three times at their new San Francisco-based home in the preseason but tonight's contest against the LA Clippers will be the first regular season game played at Chase Center. The Clippers remade the top of their roster with the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the off-season, although George is not ready to play, as he continues to rehab from shoulder surgery. Without George, the Clippers relied on Leonard and their talented bench to beat the Lakers 112-102 in their season-opener Tuesday night. Kawhi had 30 points (only starter in double digits) and each of the four reserves used scored in double figures, totaling 60 points. Veteran sixth man Lou Williams led the "Bench Brigade" with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while Harrell added 17 (he averaged 16.6 & 6.5 in 26 minutes LY). The Clippers withstood an opening 13-2 run by the Lakers and later a 15-0 run, by holding the Lakers to 17 points in the final quarter of the 10-point win. As noted above, Durant and Iquodala have moved on and Thompson is sidelined. However, head coach Steve Kerr has new additions D'Angelo Russell (formerly with Brooklyn), Glenn Robinson III (Detroit Pistons) and Marquese Chriss (Cleveland Cavaliers). Of course, Curry is the leader and as Kerr stated, "It's the perfect time physically and mentally where everything's come together," Kerr old reporters of Curry during training camp. "He's in his prime age-wise, strength and conditioning-wise and defensively he's seen everything that's come his way. Teams have played him every possible way that you could think of, and he's had years now to work on counters. So, he's kind of in his sweet spot right now, and he has been the last couple years. And hopefully that continues for the next few years. But he's an amazing player." Then there is the ever-aggressive Draymond Green, who is one of the few defenders that has the capability to slow down Kawhi. Clippers are off the 'high' of beating the Lakers on Tuesday, while for the first time since 2/20/14, the Warriors are a home dog. They beat the Rockets 102-99 (OT) in that one at plus-1.5. No OT needed here, as the Warriors grab the win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Phi 76ers at 7:35 ET. Philadelphia watched Kawhi Leonard's shot bounce multiple times off the rim and then through the basket to eliminate them in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals in May. The Sixers then had to regroup and rebuild their roster, after losing Jimmy Butlerto the Heat and JJ Redick to the Pelicans. Philly got guard Josh Richardson from Miami in the Butler deal but the team's key acquisition was getting Al Horford to leave key rival Boston and sign with the 76ers. That duo joins All-Star center Joel Embiid and all-around standout Ben Simmons. The Celtics not only lost Horford but also lost Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn. The good news is that Boston added Kemba Walker from Charlotte, who averaged a career-high 25.6 PPG with the Hornets last season. The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). Embiid ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring (27.5), second in rebounding (13.6) and sixth in blocks (1.9) while playing a career-high 64 games last season. He'll anchor the mammoth front line with Horford and 6-9 Tobias Harris, who averaged a career-high 20 points in 2018-19. The 6-10 Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) was one of three players in the league to record at least 10 triple-doubles. Also, don't dismiss the addition of Josh Richardson, who will replace J.J. Redick. He averaged a career-high 16.6 PPG with Miami last season. Boston has had Philly’s number the past couple of years and won another three of four last season (7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings) bu t 'Sixer-killer' Kyrie Irving has moved on to Brooklyn, while Al Horford is now in a Philadelphia uniform. His versatility and ability to spell Joel Embiid should be big for Philly this coming season. I expect the 76ers to make a statement with a 'comfortable' win (meaning cover) against their recent nemesis. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Wolves v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season *Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). Irving will make his regular-season debut for the Nets on Wednesday against the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota made its first playoff appearance in 14 years in 2017-18 by going 47-35 but the Timberwolves took a step back in 2018-19, falling to 36-46. In contrast, the Nets went 42-20 last season, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. The T-wolves revolve around star centers Karl-Anthony Towns, who averaged 24.4 PPG and a career-high 12.4 RPG last season. Minnesota struck out in its pursuit of any big name acquisitions this off-season, but it filled some holes around Towns with the additions of forwards Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman. I hardly see that as being enough. A healthy Jeff Teague will help but while Andrew Wiggins averaged 18.1 PPG last season, he shot a career-low 41.2 percent from the floor (has he proved worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick of the 2014 draft?). Irving will join fellow guards Spencer Dinwiddie (16.8 & 4.6 APG) and Caris LeVert (13.7). Throw in Joe Harris (13.7), who led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and the Nets own a talented backcourt. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and given a two-year extension worth $29 million this week. Center Jarrett Allen took a big step in his second season, averaging 10.9 & 8.4 while shooting 59 percent from the floor (tied for seventh in the NBA). Obviously, the Nets become a lot more interesting whenever Kevin Durant suits up, but look at what head coach Kenny Atkinson did last season. The Nets were just 8-18 through Dec 5, before winning 19 of 24 games to reach 27-23 through Jan 25. The Nets finished 42-40 and I expect them to be better this season. As for the T-wolves, NOT so much. Minnesota was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season (allowed 114.0 PPG) and went a pathetic 11-30 SU on the road. Kyrie wins his Brooklyn debut, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers and bowing out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. The Detroit Pistons have a new head coach in Dwane Casey but he's hardly new to the NBA, as he won the 2017-18 Coach of the Year award with the Toronto Raptors. Six-time All-Star Blake Griffin will miss the start of the season due to hamstring and knee soreness. It's likely he will miss several games, with the team saying he will be reevaluated in the first week of November. PG Jackson and newly forward Markieff Morris are both listed day-to-day with nagging injuries. Detroit also added former MVP Derrick Rose but we all know his injury history. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down witha season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team and has raised his activity level to five-on-five scrimmages but there is still no timetable for his retur. His absence will hurt a little less due to a pair of shrewd off-season additions, Malcolm Brogdon (Milwaukee), Jeremy Lamb (Charlotte) and TJ Warren. Brogdon has averaged 12.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting on threes in his three seasons with Milwaukee, Lamb averaged a career-high 15.3 PPG with Charlotte last season and Warren has posted averages of 19.6 and 18.0 PPG the last two years with Phoenix. The Pacers also own an excellent interior duo of center Myles Turner (13.3 & 7.2 plus an NBA-best 2.7 blocked shots per game) and forward Domantas Sabonis, who made considerable career strides in 2018-19.He averaged 14.1 & 9.3 rebounds (he just signed a four-year, $77 million extension on Monday). The Pacers are a solid team (were 32-15 before Oladipo went down) and have made some excellent off-season moves. Griffin has been a career underachiever who always seems to get injured (no different to start this season). The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Season-Opening Tip-Off is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors are the defending NBA champions and help tip-off the 2019/20 NBA season by hosting the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the game has lost some luster, as not only is Kawhi Leonard now a Clipper but the No. 1 pick of the 2019 NBA Draft, Zion Williamson, is expected to be sidelined for the first month of the season. Of course, A.D. was traded by the Pelicans to the Lakers plusJulius Randle (who averaged a career-high 21.4 PPG with the Pelicans last season) signed with the Knicks. TNT knew about the trades/moves but can't too happy at Zion Williamson’s preseason knee injury. New Orleans will have FOUR new starters once Williamson returns, with PG Lonzo Ball and SF Brandon Ingram joining the team in the deal for Davis and center Derrick Favors coming over via trade from the Utah Jazz. The lone holdover is guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7), He's the best player in a crowded backcourt rotation that includes newcomers Josh Hart and JJ Redick along with holdovers Frank Jackson and E'Twaun Moore and rookie Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Head coach Alvin Gentry will have a heard time finding time for everyone and naturally, he can't wait for Zion to return. "It's just a situation where some nights, guys just aren't going to play," Gentry told reporters. "For us to be a really good team, you are going to have to accept that, with the understanding some nights the other guys are going to play. There's just no getting around it. We do have a lot of players who are very similar skill-wise who are multiple position guys." Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) is also in LA with Kawhi, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news is that head coach Nick Nurse has a familiar cast still around. Siakam (was the NBA's Most Improved Player and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry has been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without. He'll be asked to score more with Kawhi gone but don't forget that he is also a former Defensive Player of the Year. Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believe Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). The Pelicans are still "finding their way," while the Raptors will be out to prove that they can win without Kawhi. Raising the banner and handing out rings is typically a distraction but in this case I expect "We The North" to provide an electric atmosphere for tonight's contest. Toronto was a dominating 32-9 SU at home last season and has won SEVEN of its last eight meetings with New Orleans, which is now with A.D. & Randle, plus will have to wait awhile before Zion is ready. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET. There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later).. The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?). The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014. OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Does anyone want to win the NFC East? We know the 1-5 Redskins won't/can't and the 2-4 Giants are unlikely to. That leaves us with the 3-3 Eagles and Cowboys, who meet in Dallas tonight in the latest edition on Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Eagles fell to 3-3 following a 38-20 loss at Minnesota last week while the Cowboys own the same mark after dropping their third straight game with a 24-22 setback to the previously winless New York Jets. Carson Wentz has 10 TD passes against just one interception in five career starts vs the Cowboys, while Dak Prescott has five passing and one rushing TD en route to recording THREE straight wins against the Eagles. Wentz is completing 61.2% for 1,458 yards with 12 TDs and three INTs through six games. TE Ertz (33 catches) has been his top target, although WRs Alshon Jeffery (24 catches / 3 TDs) and (23 catches / 3 TDs) are both off to solid starts. The Philly running game is so-so (111.2 YPG ranks 14th) and the Eagles average 26.8 PPG (9th). The defense has been awful against the pass (280.2 YPG ranks 29th) but outstanding against the run (72.8 YPG ranks 2nd). Overall, the Eagles are allowing 24.8 PPG (23rd). Dak Prescott has cooled off after an excellent start but is still completing 69.7% for 1,884 with 11 TDs and six INTs (has 133 rushing yards and two TDs). RB Elliot has blown hot-and-cold (491 RY / 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and will have to go up against Philly's excellent rush D (see above). WRs Randall Cobb (back) and Amari Cooper (thigh) are both iffy. Cobb sat out against the Jets and Cooper didn't play after the first series.The Dallas D has performed well, allowing a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) on 331.8 YPG (9th). Dallas opened 3-0 while averaging 32.3 PPG but the wins came over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins (teams are a combined, 3-14). It's more than fair to be skeptical of Dallas but is Philly any better? TWO of the Eagles' three wins have come at home vs the 1-5 Redskins and 1-5 Jets (playing without Darnold, while their third loss was at Atlanta, in what has been the Falcons' LONE win of 2019. "We're going down to Dallas, and our guys are gonna be ready to play. And we're gonna win that football game, and when we do, we're in first place in the NFC East," Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson said on 94.1 WIP. "We control our own destiny. We're right where we need to be."I sure DON'T share Pederson's confidence. Injuries have hampered both the Eagles and Cowboys but my bet says the Cowboys WON'T lose FOUR in a row, especially against a hated division rival who they've won and covered against in three straight. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -125 | 46 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET. The Chicago Bears opened the current season by losing 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 12 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2 by kicking a 53-yard FG as time expired. Mitchell Trubisky had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions the first two games but passed for 231 yards with three TD passes in Chicago's 31-15 Week 3 win at Washington in a MNF game. Trubisky went down in the opening minutes of Chicago's Week 4 game against the Vikings. Chase Daniel threw for 195 yards and a touchdown after Trubisky exited with a left shoulder injury, leading Chicago to a 16-6 victory. Daniel started Chicago's Week 5 loss (24-21) in London to Raiders but Trubisky is expected to start in this Week 7 contest against the Saints. The Saints know all about losing their starting QB. New Orleans has been without Drew Brees since he suffered a thumb injury in Week 2. However, Teddy Bridgewater has guided the team to FOUR consecutive victories. Bridgewater first led the Saints to a win at Seattle, followed with home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay and then last week won at Jacksonville. Bridgewater threw for 314 yards and matched a career high with four TD passes in a Week 5 win over the Bucs but he struggled against Jacksonville last week. He is averaging a modest 217.8 YPG passing and may be asked to do more with RB Alvin Kamara (373 rushing yards / 276 receiving yards) and TE Jared Cook (15 catches / 2 TDs) both missing this game with injuries. New Orleans' offense is averaging a middle-of-the-road 21.3 PPG (18th) but its defense has stood tall, allowing just 40 points over its last three games (20.3 PPG on the season ranks 11th). Chicago knows a little bit about defense. The Bears allowed an NFL-low 17.7 PPG, helping them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing 13.8 PPG (3rd) on 312.2 YPG (6th). However, the Bears NEED to score more, as they come in averaging just 17.4 PPG (26th) on 266.0 YPG (30th). I expect Trubisky to start but I'm fine with Daniel. Chicago has had two weeks to stew about its upset loss to the Oakland Raiders in London, one that snapped the team's three-game winning streak. No way the Saints could have expected to go 4-0 SU & ATS without Brees and this venue is NOT a good one for New Orleans, as it's an off-surface (grass) . The Bears are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games and I believe it's a great spot for Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Rams -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET. The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points. The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters. Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st). Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!). Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Tulane v. Memphis -3.5 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Memphis at 7:00 ET. A pair of 5-1 teams square off Saturday night in Memphis, as the Tulane Green Wave visit the Memphis Tigers. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave are well on their way to a second straight winning season, losing only on the road at now-No. 11 Auburn 24-6 back on Sep 7. When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowls but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011. Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Memphis opened the 2019 season 5-0 and entered last week's game at Temple ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. However, the Tigers lost 30-28, as a 3 1/2-point favorite. Both schools play in the AAC-West, where Tulane is tied with SMU at 2-0 and Memphis is tied with Navy at 1-1. Tulane is led by its No.4-ranked rushing game, which averages 288.0 YPG. The Green Wave have great depth at RB but Dauphine leads the way with 364 yards on a WHOPPING 11.0 YPC! Overall, the offense is averaging 39.2 PPG (16th) on 496.3 YPG (13th). The defense has played well, allowing 19.2 PPG (26th) on 326.3 YPG (32nd). Temple has an edge at the QB position with Brady White (69.9% with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs) plus RB Gainwell has run for 726 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. The offense almost matches Tulane in averaging 37.8 PPG (21st) on 466.22 YPG (27th).The defense is good, allowing 21.0 PPG (38th) on 347.2 YPG (44th). Tulane comes in on a four-game winning streak (SU & ATS) but the Green Wave face THREE tough road games over their next four league contests, Saturday at Memphis, at Navy on Oct 26 and at Temple on Nov 16. Memphis has been tough to beat at home since the beginning of 2014, going 31-5 SU. Expect the Tigers to bounce back off their first loss of 2019 with a "comfortable" home win(meaning a cover!) in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Big-12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 4:00 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Rhule has Baylor off to a 6-0 start and the Bears are currently in the AP poll. Baylor is off to a 3-0 start in the Big 12 but have been VERY lucky. The Bears blew a 20-0 lead in their Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining for the win.The Bears made it EIGHT straight wins dating to 2018 last Saturday but were again fortunate after benefiting greatly from a false start call in their 33-30 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Bears drove 97 yards to get the tying FG on the final play of regulation (Mayers came through again) and then won it with a TD in the 2nd OT. Mike Gundy is in his 15th season at Oklahoma St and this is clearly NOT one of his better teams. The Cowboys are 4-2 (1-2 in Big 12 play). OSU opened 3-0 but has lost TWO of its last three games. The Cowboys lost a competitive 36-30 decision at Texas (as a 7-point dog) on Sep 21 for their first loss of the season, then beat Kan St 26-13 at home, before losing 45-35 at Texas Tech on Oct 5th as a 9-point road favorite. Baylor had its hands full with Texas Tech last Saturday at home, as junior QB Charlie Brewer threw his first three interceptions of the season. However, he ran for three TDs, including one in overtime. He's completing 65.4% with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, as Baylor ranks 34th in the nation with 276.3 YPG passing. The running game is solid (199.2 YPG on 5.6 YPC), helping Baylor average 37.8 PPG (20th). The Baylor D is solid, allowing 17.8 PPG (17th). Spencer Sanders (63.3 percent, 1,333 yards, 10 TDs, eight INTs) needs only 296 yards to break the freshmen school record for passing yards in a season .However, he hardly seems in the same class as OSU's last two QBs, Cornelius and Rudolph, who threw for a combined 97 TDs with just 26 INTs the previous three seasons. However, sophomore RB Chuba Hubbard has more rushing yards than any player in the nation, checking in with 1,094 on 6.8 YPC with 13 TDs. OSU ranks 7th in the nation with 279.0 YPG on the ground (5.6 YPC), helping them average 39.8 PPG (11th). The defense is a worry though, allowing 27.5 PPG (71st). Noting all of the above, Baylor's first three wins of 2019 came over FCS SF Austin (1-5), UTSA (2-4) and Rice (0-6) plus the Bears have been extremely fortunate to win TWO of their three Big-12 contests (see above). Oklahoma St has had a week to stew after it was ambushed at Lubbock on Oct 5 and returns to Stillwater for its Homecoming Game. What's more, the Cowboys will surely remember Baylor beating them 35-31 last season in Waco on a 6-yard TD pass to with SEVEN seconds remaining in the game. REVENGE works and Baylor's eight-game winning streak (6-0 start in 2019), ends! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Washington at 3:30 ET. Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning FIVE in a row (including a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play) and have outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG. That's right, Oregon has allowed just 25 points in its five-game winning streak, holding five consecutive opponents to single-digit point totals for the first time since 1958. However, the Ducks now must visit their border rival the Washington Huskies. Washington is off a 51-27 blowout of Arizona, but the 5-2 Huskies are just 2-2 in Pac-12 play. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but come into this contest having just climbed back into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday. Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick. He completing 69.1% with 17 TDs and just one INT and has thrown a TD pass in 34 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (176.8 YPG ranks 56th). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG on 461.0 YPG, ranking 30th in both categories. As noted above, the defense is spectacular, allowing 8.7 PPG (3rd) on 267.7 YPG (8th). Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's not in Herbert's class but he's completing 66.0% with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of which whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (522 RY / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) which averages 179.1 YPG (53rd). Washington is averaging 36.4 PPG (29th) and most teams would be happy allowing 19.6 PPG (28th) on 363.6 YPG (50th) but in this case, the Huskies' D is being compared to the Ducks'. Both schools play in the Pac-12 North, so Oregon can all but clinch the title here with a win. The Oregon D is 'nasty' (has allowed just one TD over its opponents' last 63 drives while also forcing 21 three-and-outs during that span) but winning at Husky Stadium will NOT be easy. What's more, Washington is a home dog for the first time since 2015. From 2016 through 2019, Washington has played 25 home games, going 23-2 SU. The Huskies lost to USC at home in 2016 and had won 15 straight home games before losing 20-19 to Cal on Sep 7. The Cal game was delayed more than 2 1/2 hours by severe weather, with the Bears winning on a FG with EIGHT seconds left. I'm saying the home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on La Tech at 3:30 ET. Southern Miss heads to Ruston, La on Saturday to take on La Tech in a C-USA action. The two schools are both 2-0 in league play with the Golden Eagles sitting at 4-2 on the season and the Bulldogs checking in at 5-1. Southern Miss saw a three-year bowl streak end in 2018 (went just 6-5) but is hoping to get back to 'bowling' in 2019. Fact is, the team's two losses this season have come on the road against two SEC schools, Miss St and Alabama. The Golden Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back home wins,31-13 over UTEP and 45-27 over North Texas. As for La Tech, the Bulldogs opened the 2019 season with a 45-14 loss at Texas but have since won FIVE in a row. Southern Miss is led by QB Jack Abraham who has completed almost 71.6% of his passes for 1,936 yards, with 12 TD’s and four INTs. The Golden Eagles rank 6th in passing (331.2 YPG) but the team's leading rusher has just 279 yards and is averaging a woeful 113.5 YPG on the ground (115th). That said, Southern Miss is averaging 30.5 PPG (57th). The defense is allowing 29.8 PPG (91st) on 388.2 YPG (66th). La Tech QB J’Mar Smith threw three TD passes and RB Justin Henderson ran for three first-quarter TDs to power Louisiana Tech to a 69-21 victory over Massachusetts last Saturday. Smith is completing 63.8% for 1,557 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs on the season. Henderson has 478 yards rushing, while averaging a healthy 8.2 YPC (has eight TDs). Tech's offense is averaging 34.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (25th). On the defensive side of the ball, despite allowing 45 points at Texas, La Tech checks into this game allowing a modest 23.0 PPG (45th). The winner of this one takes a big step towards representing the West in C-USA's title game and I'm "all over" La Tech. The Bulldogs come in on a five-game winning streak and will surely remember therir bitter losses to the Golden Eagles the last two seasons. Southern Miss eked out a 21-20 win at home in 2018 and in 2017, won here in Ruston 34-27 in two OTs. Expect the Bulldogs to "get it right' this time around. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Florida -5 v. South Carolina | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Florida at 12:00 ET. Dan Mullen took over at Florida for the beginning of the 2018 season and revitalized an offense that had been dormant the previous three seasons. The Gators averaged 35.0 PPG in 2018, after averaging just 23.2, 23.9 and 22.1 the previous three seasons. Florida went 10-3 last year and its dominating 41-15 win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl gave them a final AP ranking of 7th (tied with Georgia). Florida opened the 2019 season ranked 8th in the AP's preseason poll and and after a 6-0 start, was ranked No. 7 heading into a showdown with No. 5 LSU in Baton Rogue. The Gators lost 42-28 at LSU last Saturday but the games was MUCH closer than the final score. Florida now heads to Columbia, SC to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks, whose head coach is Will Muschamp. Muschamp was Florida's head coach from 2011 through 2014, going a disappointing 28-21, before being fired before the team played its 2014 bowl game. He got the South Carolina job in 2016 and in his first three seasons, had led the Gamecocks to a modest 22-17 record (three bowls but just one win). South Carolina opened the 2019 season 1-3 but then won 24-7 at home to Kentucky on Sep 28 before pulling off what has to be biggest upset of the 2019 college football season to-date last Saturday. The Gamecocks went toe-to-toe in Athens with then-No. 3 Georgia on Oct 12, eventually winning 20-17 in double overtime. The Gators lost starting QB Franks in the season's third game but Kyle Trask came in to finish off a 29-21 win at Kentucky in that contest and in four starts, has completed 68.4% with 10 TDs and just three INTs. Trask threw for a career-high 310 yards and three touchdowns at LSU but head coach Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! South Carolina' offense didn't score much against Georgia and it didn't help that starting QB Ryan Hilinski (15-20 but for just 116 yds) was lost to a knee injury. He was replaced by Dakereon Joyner, who completed six of 12 passes for only 39 yards and also rushed six times for 28 yards in relief. However, it was the South Carolina D which turned in a heroic effort with THREE interceptions and one fumble recovery. CB Israel Mukuamu accounted for all three of the 'picks,' returning one 53 yards for a touchdown to become the first Gamecock with three interceptions in a game since 1988. Hilinski is expected to be available but note that if we "take away" South Carolina's 72-point output against Charleston Southern (anyone know that school had a FB team?), the Gamecocks are averaging only 20.2 PPG in their other five contests. Yes, the Florida D allowed 42 points on 511 yards to LSU but despite that, the Gators rank 10th in the nation by allowing only 14.1 PPG on 314.2 YPG (22nd). The offense has not been hurt by Franks' injury, as the Gators enter averaging 31.7 PPG (53rd) on 2429.3 YPG (50th). This is a classic "let-down" spot for South Carolina and classic "bounce-back" spot for Florida, which gets next week off before its meeting with Georgia in Jacksonville on Nov 2. A stumble here and the Gators' could find themselves 6-3, after a 6-0 start. After his "biggest" win at South Carolina, the LAST team Muschamp wanted to see this Saturday (other than Alabama), was Florida coming off a loss. Lay the points with the road team. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights G.O.M. is on FAU at 6:30 ET. Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin has turned things around quickly though, winning FOUR in a while averaging 39.0 PPG. 4-2 FAU welcomes 3-3 Marshall to Boca Raton for a Friday game in C-USA play. FAU (2-0) and Marshall (1-1) were the East's two-favorites in the preseason but Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd are struggling in 2019, going 1-5 ATS. The team's lone ATS win came way back on Sep 6, when Marshall (+14) lost 14-7 at Boise St. QB Green is struggling, with just two TD passes in his last three games, passing for only 131 and 175 yards in two of those three contests. Marshall has lost both road games this season, at Boise St (see above) and 24-13 at MTSU on Oct 5. The game at MTSU is noteworthy, as Marshall scored just 13 points on a defense allowing 32.7 PPG (107th) on 494.7 YPG (126th). FAU just beat MTSU 28-13 at home last Saturday, despite playing its worst offensive game since being outclassed by Ohio St and UCF to open the 2019 season. However, while Marshall's QB is struggling, FAU's Robinson has thrown for 1,557 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs. If freshman RB Davidson (149 rushing yards v. MTSU) continues to develop, FAU may just be the team to beat in the East (Western Ky has opened 3-0 and hosts FAU on Nov 2). Getting back to the current situation, the Owls are 13-4 SU at home under Kiffin (13 wins have come by an average of 24.6 PPG) and this modest impost should be no problem against a Marshall team which has scored just 20 points in its only two road games of 2019. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 61 h 40 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee. Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th). The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives." Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd). Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2). Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1. Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Eagles v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards. Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th). Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks. My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick). Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times! Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game. I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on Iowa at 7:30 ET. Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) will take its 12-game winning streak (second to only Clemson's 20 straight wins) and its No. 10 ranking in the current AP poll into Iowa City to take on No. 17 Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) Saturday night. The Nittany Lions' CFP hopes will likely depend on how they perform during a critcal three- week stretch which begins this Saturday. Penn St will follow this contest with a home date with No. 16 Michigan and then a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St. Iowa is likely not seriously thinking o about the CFP but the Hawkeyes have surely NOT tabled hopes of winning the Big Ten West. However, with Wisconsin and Minnesota off to 2-0 stars, Iowa almost HAS to win this one (will play at Wisconsin and then host Minnesota in Nov). Penn State sophomore QB Sean Clifford ranks second among Big Ten passers with 1,443 yards and is third with 12 TD passes (just two INTs in 135 pass attempts). A running-back-by-committee approach (four backs have run for at least 198 yards) is averaging 194.6 YPG (43rd) on 5.4 YPC. Penn St is averaging 47.0 YPPG (5th) on 500.2 YPG (11th). Iowa's offense could not score a TD last week at Michigan, as QB Nate Stanley (who entered the game with eight TD passes and zero INTs), threw three INTs. Stanley, who needs just one TD pass to move into a tie for second in school history, is unlikely to forget that he completed only 18-of-49 passes while throwing two interceptions and getting sacked three times in a 30-24 oss at Penn State last year. However, much like Penn St, Iowa's running game (174.2 YPG on 5.2 YPC) has three players with more than 200 rushing yards. Stanley also has a quartet of receivers all with at least 190 receiving yards. The Nittany Lions have won FIVE straight meetings with the Hawkeyes but note that last season at Penn St, Stanley (who had an awful game / see above) threw a pick at Penn State's goal line with 3:18 left, as the Nittany Lions survived 30-24. The year before (at Iowa), Penn State scored a TD on the game's final play, winning 21-19 on a walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley. Yes, Penn St has won FIVE in a row but prior to that, the Hawkeyes had won EIGHT of nine in the series, including a last-second 24-23 win in 2008 that knocked Penn State out of the national title chase. Deja vu? Iowa's QB in that 2008 game, Ricky Stanzi, is the team's honorary captain this week. Iowa (especially its defense) will be Penn St's toughest opponent to-date and the Nittany Lions hardly impressed against the team's toughest opponent up to this point. Back on Sep 14, Penn St (-17) barely eked out a 17-10 win against Pittsburgh (was held to just 389 yards). Yes, Penn State's defense is allowing 7.4 PPG (2nd) on 240.4 YPG (4th) but Iowa's D is "right there" with them, allowing just 8.8 PPG (3rd) on 255.0 YPG (5th). Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS a home dog since late 2000 and I'm expecting an OUTRIGHT win in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio -5 | Top | 39-36 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* MAC ATTACK 2 is on Ohio U at 3:30 ET. Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but then lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 21 and entered that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns. The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and opened their MAC schedule at Buffalo last Saturday. The Bobcats and Buffs were tied at 14 and went to OT. Buffalo scored first but missed the PAT. Ohio gave the ball to RB Allison on all five of its plays in overtime and won it 21-20 on his five-yard TD run and a successful PAT, Ohio (2-3 / 1-0 MAC) returns home to host Northern Illinois. The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seassons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. So far, NOT so good . Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies have lost FOUR in a row, since. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies rank 42nd in passing (266.2 YPG) but QB Ross Bowers is completing just 56.9% with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The running game stinks, averaging 97.4 YPG (122nd). The defense allows a relatively modest 363.4 YPG (49th) but gives up 28.0 PPG (78th). Ohio OB Nathan Rourke was expecting a big season after passing for 2,431 yards (with 23 TD passes) and rushing for 860 yards (with 15 TDs) in 2018. However, he's got just 250 rushing yards (3 TDs) and 1,012 passing yards (6 TDs) so far in 2019. Ohio's D is allowing 27.6 PPG (74th) on 446.8 YPG (108th). The Bobcats have disappointed so far but they are 1-0 in MAC play and just maybe, last Saturday's OT win is what the team needed to jump-start its MAC season. Northern Illinois in 2019 looks NOTHING like past editions (12 bowls the last 15 seasons) and its lone with has come over Illinois St, an FCS member. NIU is 0-3 on the road, getting outscored on average, 34.3-to-14.3 PPG. Remember, before losing at home to ULL on Sep 21, Ohio had won 10 straight at home, averaging 47.0 PPG. Let's not count out Ohio U just yet in its quest for its first MAC title since 1968,. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET. The Tigers travel to Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa) this Saturday to take on fellow AAC rival Temple. The Owls entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six year as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. In Temple's second game of 2019, the Owls upset then-No. 21 Maryland 20-17 (as five-point home dog), one week after the Terps had ripped Syracuse for 63 points. Temple suffered a let down of its own the following Saturday, losing 38-22 at Buffalo, as a two-TD road favorite. However, the Owls have rebounded to beat Georgia Tech (24-2) and East Carolina (27-17) in their last two games, allowing an average of just 316 yards per game in the two victories Memphis QB Brady White threw three TD passes and RB Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 209 rushing yards and two scores in the Tigers' 52-33 win last Saturday. The Memphis offense (39.8 PPG ranks 16th) owns excellent balance, passing for 246.6 YPG (65th) and rushing for 214.4 YPG (32nd). White is completing 71.7% (11-3 ratio) and Gainwell has 620 rushing yards (8.2 YPC and 6 TDs). The defense is allowing 19.2 PPG (27th) on 325.4 YPG (35th). Temple is averaging 29.8 PPG (68th) on 445.2 YPG (35th) but neither QB Russo (58.9% with an 11-6 ratio) nor RB Davis (563 RY / 6.0 YPC / 4 TdD) are quite as good as their Memphis counterparts (While and Gainwell). However, the Temple D is every bit as good, and slightly better than Memphis', allowing 17.2 PPG (19th) on 292.8 YPG (20th). This is a tough spot for Memphis, as QB White will be facing the best D he's seen all year (he under-performed vs Ole Miss out of the SEC), as Temple ranks 3rd in pass efficiency. Temple's Russo has a strong arm and is off his first error-free game of season in the 27-17 win at East Carolina (23-34 for 208 yards with one TD and zero INTs) plus RB Davis ran for 157 yards (6.5 YPC). The Memphis D is in for a test. Temple is 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 33.3-to-10.3 PPG) and checks in 7-1 ATS (88%) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. This Memphis team may be 5-0 and ranked 23rd but it is NOT in the class of that 2017 UCF team. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-19 | Colorado State -3 v. New Mexico | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Colorado St at 8:00 ET. The 1-5 Colorado State Rams (0-2 in MWC play) travel to Albuquerque to face the 2-3 New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium on Friday night. Former Georgia QB Mike Bobo took over at CSU in 2015, getting his first head coaching job. He led the Rams to three straight 7-6 seasons but each one ended with a bowl loss. The 2018 season was a 'disaster,' as CSU went just 3-9, its worst record since 2011. Clearly, the team's 1-5 start has CSU backers worried. As for New Mexico, Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos have opened the 2019 season 2-3 (0-1 in MWC play) CSU is almost assured of a second straight losing season but the team's 1-5 record is somewhat deceiving. The Rams opened 2019 against in-state rival Colorado of the Pac-12, and following a win over Western Illinois, the Rams have faced the SEC’s Arkansas, 4-1 Toledo, and solid MWC schools Utah State (3-2) and San Diego State (4-1). Starting QB Collin Hill (67.5% & an 8-2 ratio) was lost for the season to a knee injury in the game at Arkansas but back-up Patrick O'Brien rallied the team from a 14-point, first half deficit to tie it at 34-all (Arkansas would win the 4Q, 21-0). However, O'Brien has thrown for 839 yards in his three starts (279.7 YPG). New Mexico got blasted 66-14 at Notre Dame (Welcome Back, Dave) and its lone two wins in 2019 have come at home against Sam Houston State (FSC) and 0-6 New Mexico St (one of three winless teams in 2019). New Mexico owns a solid running game (212.4 YPG ranks 33rd) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 39.6 PPG (126th) on 513.8 YPG (127th). CSU badly needs a win and New Mexico St sets up as the perfect foil. The Rams have beaten the Lobos NINE straight times (average margin of victory being a right at two TDs), including all SEVEN since Davie took over in 2012 (6-1 ATS). Want more? The Lobos are 2-15 SU in MWC game since the start of 2017. There is a reason this 1-5 team is a road favorite! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* SBC Game of the Month is on ULL at 8:00 ET. The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008. The Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 4-0 Mountaineers travel to Louisiana-Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns in Sun Belt Conference action on Wednesday. App St is 4-0 and owns the third-longest active winning streak in CFB at 10 in a row, while ULL checks in at 4-1 (both schools are 1-0 in SBC play). This is a rematch of last year's SBC championship game, won by Appalachian State at home, 30-19 (the Mountaineers also won at home in the regular season, 27-17). App St owns a very balanced offense, averaging 204.8 YPG passing and 224.5 YPG rushing (47.0 PPG, 5th-best in the nation). QB Zac Thomas has completed 71.9% for 802 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 14-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to those 10 straight wins! The defense allows 420.0 YPG (94th) and 29.0 PPG (86th) but when a team is scoring 47.0 PPG, that can be overlooked. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44,4 4 PPG (9th-best), led by the nation's top rushing offense. ULL averages 314.0 YPG on a WHOPPING 7.3 YPC. It has two VERY dangerous backs, Ragas (548 yards / 9.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mitchell (402 yards / 6.0 YPC / 9 TDs). The defense allows a more modest 24.1 PPG (41st) and features a very athletic secondary. ULL opened the season by losing 38-28 to Miss St in the Superdome (covered as a 19-point dog) but has since gone 4-0 SU & ATS. Yes, ULL has lost all six meetings with App St since 2014 (including two last season) but the matchups favor them in this one. ULL’s athletic secondary ranks 13th nationally in pass defense efficiency and Appalachian State QB Zac Thomas could (should) have problems. App State’s defense hasn’t played well, allowing 109 points its last three games (36.3 PPG), to Charlotte, UNC and Coastal Carolina and overall, ranks 117th in red zone D. The team's rush D will be severely tested by ULL's top-ranked rushing attack. The last time App St lost a league game was Oct 25, 2018 at Georgia Southern (34-14), when the Eagles ran for 277 yards (5.5 YPC). The Ragin' Cajuns are the ONLY school of 130 playing in the FBS to be unbeaten ATS (5-0). Expect ULL to control the ball and clock and finally break through vs Appalachian State, keeping the team's perfect ATS mark in tack. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My AFC 10* Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Buffalo Bills opened the season 3-0, before suffering their first loss last Sunday at home, 16-10 to the Pats. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw three interceptions against New England last week, as the Bills offense did very little. However, the Buffalo D held the defending-champion Patriots to just 224 yards. Brday had just 150 yards passing, was held without a TD pass despite 39 attempts and was interecpeted once (QB rating of 45.9!). Buffalo held the Pats to juts 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC) and will visit Nashville allowing 15.8 PPG (5th) on 280.8 YPG (2nd). Allen got knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit when he failed to slide on a running play and has spent the week in concussion protocol.He had completed 64.1 percent of his passes during the 3-0 start before going 13-of-28 against the Pats. The ageless Frank Gore (he needs 249 rushing yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the all-time list) ran for 109 yards and the Bills are averaging 147.2 YPG on the ground (4th). The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons and shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1. However, the Titans have been searching for consistency for far too long. They lost 19-17 at home to Indy in Week 2 and in Week 3 lost 20-7 at Jacksonville, before winning 24-10 last Sunday in Atlanta. QB Marcus Mariota has been no paragon of consistency but he's completing 62.2% with seven TDs and not a single interception in 119 attempts (106.2 QB rating). Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. The Tennessee D defense returned nine of 11 starters from 2018 and is currently allowing 15.5 PPG (4th) on 337.0 YPG (12th). The Bills are waiting to see if Josh Allen will be cleared from the concussion protocol and he's listed as questionable. Backup Matt Barkley will start if Allen can't go and would make his first start since last season. He threw for 127 yards coming off the bench in last week's 16-10 loss. Whether it's Allen or Barkley, I'm backing the Titans. I'm still not sold on the Bills and believe that he Titans are a no-frills solid team without any major weaknesses, especially with Marcus Mariota stepping up his play (Mariota is the only quarterback to start every game this season without giving the ball away). The Titans didn’t permit a sack against the Falcons last Sunday (after allowing a league-high 17 sacks through the first three weeks). Now the Titans get back All-Pro offensive left tackle Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. The Titans are sure to recall losing on a last-second 46-yard FG at Buffalo a year ago in Week 5, a defeat that loomed large, as the Titans lost a playoff berth in their regular-season finale. All teams in the AFC South are 2-2 and the Titans believe that with three of their next four games at home, it's a great opportunity to put together a winning streak. That streak starts right here, with Tennessee's first back-to-back wins of 2019. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans -4 | Top | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in all four games in 2019 but the Falcons are just 1-3, after losing 24-10 at home last Sunday to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan threw for a season-high 397 yards in in Week 4 but did not throw a TD pass. All season, Atlanta's has lacked any offensive balance, as the running game is averaging just 70.2 YPG on 4.0 YPC, to rank 37th in the league. The defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (32.8 per) but 22nd in points (24.8 PPG). At the moment, Atlanta looks like the worst team in the NFC South and head coach Dan Quinn's seat warms up a little bit more with each loss. The Texans are one of FOUR teams in the AFC South to enter Week at 2-2. Houston is coming off a lackluster 16-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers and needs QB Deshaun Watson to "step it up." He passed for only 160 yards vs the Panthers. Watson (65.1%, 938 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of 99.9) is capable of so much more, especially with a WR like Hopkins (24 catches) and a running game that's been better than average (120.2 YPG on 5.1 YPC), even after losing Lamar Smith. The defense is allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) and the Texans have forced a turnover in 17 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. and one that ranks second in franchise history. Houston is tied for second in league with eight forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries. Houston really needs this win at home, as FOUR of the team's next five games will be on the road. The good news is that the Falcons set up as the perfect foil. The Falcons are beginning a stretch in which four of their next six games are on the road plus this marks their THIRD straight contest against an AFC South team. The Falcons have lost the first two (at Indy in Week 4 and home to Tennessee in Week 4), falling to 1-12 SU their last 13 vs AFC South opponents. The ATS "clincher" is Atlanta going 4-14 ATS on the road since the start of the 29017 season, a 78% "go-against." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Michigan State +21 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 10 m | Show |
My NCAAF 9* Underdog of the Month is on Michigan St at 7:30 ET. No. 4 Ohio State (5-0 / 2-0 Big Ten) won its 10th consecutive game at Nebraska last week, opening a 38-0 lead in the first half on the way to a 48-7 victory. That marked the team's FOURTH consecutive win of least 40 points or more, believed to be tied for the longest such streak by a Big Ten team since World War I. QB Justin Fields (16-0 ratio plus 7 rush TDs) and RB Dobbins (654 YR / 7.1 YPFC / 5 TDs) lead an offense averaging 52.4 PPG (3rd) on 536.2 YPG (8th). As for the defense, the Buckeyes are allowing just 8.6 PPG (2nd) on 224.2 YPG (2nd). The Michigan St Spartans (4-1 / 2-0 Big Ten) invade Columbus at No. 25 in the latest AP poll for the second straight week, after a 40-31 home win over Indiana. QB Brian Lewerke (1,325 yards with a 10-1 ratio) leads the Big Ten in passing yards. The Spartans' lone loss came 10-7 at home to ASU but MSU is still averaging 31.4 PPG. The defensive numbers would look great, 15.0 PPG (14th) on 254.4 YPG (7th), if NOT compared against Ohio State's Ohio State has beaten Michigan St the last three times the teams have met but the Spartans D will be the best one QB Fields has seen (remember, this is just his sixth start). Many (most?) have already punched Ohio St.’s ticket to the CFP but let's note that Ohio State has lost only FIVE Big Ten games since 2012 and TWO of those have come against Michigan State, in the 2013 Big Ten championship game and at Columbus in 2015. The Spartans can get to the QB (16-4 sack edge in 2019),and weren’t sacked in last years meeting (26-6 Ohio St win at East Lansing). I'll close by pointing out that the Spartans held the Buckeyes to just 2.7 YPC in that loss, as well to a season-low 237 total yards. Take the HUGE points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -1 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* "Best Bet" MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 3:30 ET. Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio on Saturday, where the Rockets will host the Broncos in MAC play. Western Michigan improved to 3-2 on the season (1-0 in the MAC) with a 31-15 victory over Central Michigan last Saturday at home. This marks the Broncos' conference road opener, while for 3-1 Toledo, it's the team's conference opener. Both schools finished with identical 7-6 records in 2018 (both were also 5-3 in MAC play) but Toledo has dominated the series recently, winning SEVEN of the last nine meetings. PJ Fleck made a 'pit stop' in Kalamazoo from 2013-16 and his final team 'rowed the boat' to a perfect 13-0 record, before falling 24-16 to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Fleck used that season to land the job at Minnesota and Tim Lester has gone 13-12 in his first two years at the school (is currently 16-14). QB Jon Wassink (63.1% / 1,466 yards / 10-4 ratio) leads an offense averaging 37.2 PPG (27th) but WMU has NOT been competitive in its two road games in 2019, losing 51-17 at Mich St and 52-33 at Syracuse. OK, Toledo is not exactly Mich St (may not even be Syracuse) but the Rockets own a very balanced offense (207.8 YPG passing and 262.2 YPG rushing) that has them 28th in total offense (470.0 YPG) and 41st in scoring (34.5 PPG) That running game ranks 10th in the nation and while the defense is giving up too many yards, the Rockets are holding opponents to a decent 23.5 PPG (51st). Toledo has opened 2-0 at home and that's hardly news. The Rockets entered the 2019 season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips), while going 43-12 SU at home (now 45-12 with this year's two home victories). As noted above, Toledo has won SEVEN of the last nine meetings with Western Michigan, with both losses coming when Fleck was rowing the boat for WMU (in 2015 and 2016). Fleck's now a Golden Gopher and these last two seasons, Toledo has won 37-10 and 51-24 (at WMU!). No reason at all for the Rockets to NOT be a bigger favorite here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Baylor v. Kansas State -1 | Top | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Game of the Week is on Kansas St at 3:30 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Things are looking up for Baylor in 2019, as the Bears have opened 4-0. Baylor squandered a 20-0 lead Saturday in its Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining to keep the Bears perfect with a 23-21 win. Meanwhile, Kansas State, wasn’t so fortunate, losing 26-13 at Oklahoma State last Saturday in its Big 12 opener after a 3-0 start. “The thing about it is I think you can learn a lot more from a loss than you do with a win,” Wildcats first-year head coach Chris Klieman said Monday on the Big 12 coaches teleconference. “We’re going to learn an awful lot from this.” Baylor QB Charlie Brewer threw for a season-high 307 yards and passed for three TDs in the win over Iowa St. He's completing 66.4% for 972 yards with 10 TDs and not a single INT. He's supported by a solid running game, averaging 216.0 YPG (31st), as the Bears head to Manhattan averaging 40.8 PPG (15th). The defense has done its job as well, allowing 16.2 PPG (20th) on 297.5 YPG (24th). The Wildcats also possess one of the Big 12’s top defenses, ranking 17th in the nation in allowing 16.0 PPG on 323.5 YPG (35th), despite being gashed for 526 total yards by Okla St. I guess the good news would be, KSU held the Cowboys to a season-low 26 points. Baylor's 4-0 start is its best since beginning 2016 with six straight wins and will come to Manhattan as one of 18 undefeated FBS teams. However, Baylor has had problems covering the number in this matchup, going 1-4 ATS in the last five at Kansas St and 3-7 the last 10 meetings, overall. Baylor's first three wins of 2019 have come over FCS SF Austin (1-4), UTSA (1-3) and Rice (0-5) plus the Bears were VERY lucky to escape last Saturday vs Iowa St. I don't expect the Bears to be so lucky here in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have covered SIX of their last seven. Baylor falls from the ranks of the unbeaten in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 55 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa State at 12:00 ET. TCU still hasn't decided on a starting QB, as the Horned Frogs used three different QBs while rolling up 625 yards in last week's 51-14 win over Kansas. True freshman starter Max Duggan, fifth-year senior Alex Delton (who started the first two games of the season) and junior Mike Collins all seeing action in the second half. Head coach Gary Patterson wouldn't tip his hand as to who his starter would be against the Cyclones but whoever gets the start, will have the benefit of a rushing attack averaging 275.2 YPG (8th). The 3-1 Horned Frogs visit Ames on Saturday looking to open 2-0 in the Big 12. Iowa St is 2-2 but 0-1 in the Big 12 and unlike TCU, is having all sorts of trouble running the ball, averaging 152.2 YPG (76th) on the season, after gaining only 63 yards (2.3 YPC) on the ground in last Saturday's 23-21 loss at Baylor. Duggan is just the second true freshman to start at QB during the 19-season head coaching tenure of Gary Patterson and completed 8-of-11 passes for 100 yards and two TDs against the Jayhawks ,while Delton, a Kansas State transfer, was 10-of-15 for 186 yards and also rushed for 21 yards. Both are expected to see significant snaps. Senior RB Darius Anderson is having a breakout year, rushing for 483 yards (8.2 YPC) with five TDs. His best previous season at TCU was in 2017, when he gained 768 yards for the entire year. Patterson's teams typically play good D and this year's squad is holding opponents to 18.8 PPG (30th) on 246.0 YPG (4th). Iowa St may have issues running the ball (the Cyclones have rotated five different RBs) but QB Brock Purdy ranks fourth nationally in total offense (358.0 YPG) and seventh in the nation in passing yards (332.8 YPG), coming in with back-to-back 300-yard passing games. Iowa St was held to just 17 points by Iowa but is still averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) and the defense is allowing a modest 21.8 PPG (45th). Iowa St's two losses are to Iowa and Baylor (both are 4-0) and have come by a total of just THREE points. The Cyclones fell behind 20-0 at Baylor last Saturday but rallied back with 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a one-point lead with 3:45 remaining However, ISU lost on a 38-yard field goal with just 21 seconds left. The Iowa loss was not any easier to take, as the Cyclones led 14-6 late in the third quarter, before closing 18-17 on a FG with just under five minutes left. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 last year and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. He's 2-2 this year, with those two "close losses." The Cyclones are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games, losing in 2018 to then-No. 5 Oklahoma (ATS win) and to current No. 14 Iowa in 2019 (another ATS win). The Cyclones have owned the month of October vs Big 12 opponents (home or away) since 2017, going a PERFECT 7-0 SU & ATS. Make that 8-0! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-19 | Central Florida -3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights Play (AAC Game of the Month) is on UCF at 8:00 ET. The 3-1 Cincinnati Bearcats will play their AAC opener Friday night when they welcome 4-1 UCF to Nippert Stadium. UCF is ranked 18th in the latest AP poll and is coming off a 56-21 rout of Connecticut to open its AAC slate. The Knights rebounded from their first loss in 26 regular-season games (35-34 at Pittsburgh on Sep 22), by registering 607 yards of total offense. Cincinnati is coming off it best game of 2019, dominating both sides of the ball in a 52-14 rout at Marshall on Sep 28. The Bearcats out-gained the Thundering Herd 525-256, as they kept Marshall off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter. Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel threw for three TDs against UConn and after five games has completed 61.7% for 1,338 yards with a 14-2 ratio. UCF's running game adds excellent balance to an offense averaging 49.0 PPG (6th) on 568.6 YPG (2nd). Three RBs have more than 250 yards rushing, led by McCrae (323 YR / 6.2 YPC) and Killins (310 YR / 7.4 YPC). When a team's offense is averaging seven TDs per game, a defense allowing 19.4 PPG (33rd) on 324.8 YPG (36th) is more than adequate. Cincy's sophomore QB Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Week with his four TD passes against Marshall. Ridder has a pair of reliable receivers in WR Alec Pierce (14 receptions, 277 yards, TD) and TE Josiah Deguara (12 catches, 183 yards, 3 TDs),. The running agme is decent (186.5 YPG ranks 52nd) and despite getting shutout 42-0 by Ohio St, Cincy is averaging 27.8 PPG (80th). The Cincy D is pretty good, holding the team's three opponents (not named Ohio St) to just 13.7 PPG Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. His Bearcats take a NINE-game home winning streak into this contest but is beating a UCF a 'bridge too far?' My bet says Y-E-S! The Knights have scored 30 points or more in 32 straight games and have won 19 straight AAC games, with the average margin of victory checking in at 21.0 PPG (just ONE win has had a margin of less than seven points). These schools have met three times in the Frost/Heupel era (2016-18), with UCF winning 24-3, 51-23 (game was cut short because of thunderstorms) and 38-13. Deja vu! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points! Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018? Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019. Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET. As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game? Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. . Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs"). Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG). With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th). It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET. The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota. Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit). Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests. The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-19 | Hawaii v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 54-3 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall. Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season. This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET. The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog). East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 64 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Arizona St at 10:30 ET. California got off to its third consecutive 3-0 start in 2019 and entered the AP top-25 on Sep 15 at No. 23. Cal visited Oxford last Saturday and secured a 28-20 road victory over Ole Miss with a last-second stop at the goal line plus received a breakout performance by QB Chase Garbers, who threw for four TDs and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in the air. Cal's win saw them make the biggest 'leap' of any school in the new AP poll (Sep 22), jumping from No. 23 to No. 15. Cal welcomes Arizona State to Berkeley Friday night. The Sun Devils upset then-No. 18 Michigan St 10-7 at East Lansing on Sep 14, moving to 3-0 and No. 24 in the AP poll. However, ASU lost 34-31 at home last Saturday to Colorado and at 3-1, fell out of the rankings. ASU has a freshman QB in Daniels and he's 'learning fast.' He opened by throwing for 588 yards (3 TDs and 0 INTs) in ASU's first two games but then had all sorts of problems at Mich St, throwing for just 140 yards. Yes, the Sun Devils lost to the Buffs last Saturday, but Daniels passed for 345 yards with two TDs. Cal's D has gotten a lot of pub since late 2018 (and with good reason) but despite allowing 34 points to Colorado, the ASU defense is allowing only 13.8 PPG (17th) on 346.0 YPG (49th). PK Brandon Ruiz has yet to play this season because of an undisclosed injury and is unlikely to return Friday. However, walk-on kicker Cristian Zendejas may not have his range, but he's made NINE of his 10 field-goal attempts. Cal was hardly impressive in 27-13 and 23-17 wins over UC-Davis and North Texas at home, respectively, but owns two quality road wins. The Bears won 20-19 at then-No. 14 Washington and then at SEC foe Ole Miss (see above). QB Chase Garbers came into Oxford last Saturday having completed just 20- of 40 passes for 240 yards in his previous two games but threw for 357 yards and four TDs vs the Rebels. Cal needed "all of that," as its much-heralded defense did hold Ole Miss to 20 points (the Bears have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 24 points) but a check of the stat sheet shows a mediocre Ole Miss offense gained 525 yards! ASU suffered a let down against Colorado off its win at MSU the week before but Herm Edwards knows his team really needs a bounce-back win here. Is Cal really as good as its press clippings? I'm not sold and will note that Cal was 1-5-1 ATS at home last season and is 0-2 ATS at home to start 2019. Meanwhile, ASU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road dog. I'm calling for the outright upset. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all. The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games. However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL). Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-19 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Navy at 8:00 ET. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expect a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and the Midshipmen and after a win over Holy Cross, Navy rolled over East Carolina 42-10 in its second game of the season. The schedule maker has 'eased' 2-0 Navy into the 2019 season, as the Midshipmen opened at home vs Holy Cross, had a week off and then beat East Carolina. Navy again had a week off and now it's the team's conference road opener at 3-0 Memphis, which is playing its AAC opener. When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowl but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011.Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Navy QB Malcolm Perry is a dangerous 'weapon' in Navy's option offense. He showed his evolution as a passer by becoming the first Navy QB since 2010 to rush and pass for at least 150 yards in the same game while accounting for six TDs vs East Carolina (156 rush yards with 4 TDs / 151 passing yards with 2 TDs). He's backed by a group of RBs well-schooled in the team's triple-option, as Navy is No. 1 in the nation, averaging 371.5 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC). Sure, the opponents have only been Holy Cross and ECU, but the defense has allowed only 8.5 PPG (2nd) on 227.0 YPG (4th) Memphis was hardly impressive in its 15-10 season-opening home win over Ole Miss plus a 55-24 home win over Southern and a 42-6 road win at South Alabama are nice but this will be a tougher test. QB White showed little vs Ole Miss (172 yards with one INT), so his 546 yards with five TDs (just one INT) vs Southern and South Alabama still leaves a question mark. However, the Memphis D has been impressive, allowing 13.3 PPG (15th) on 226.3 YPG (3rd0. Many will find this stat a surprise (I did), as Memphis' 48 wins since 2014 rank No. 13 in the FBS. However, these schools have met just FOUR times, all recently as AAC members. Navy is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in those meetings and I'm predicting that its vaunted triple-option will control clock in this one. Yes, the Midshipmen haven’t won a road game since September of 2017 but Navy is 20-10 ATS as a road dog since 2009. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET. The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!). Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit? Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-23-19 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Year is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The New York Mets are still mathematically 'alive' in the NL wild card chase but the fact is that the Mets enter their final seven contests with a 4 1/2-game deficit in the race for the second wild card in the National League. The scorching Brewers (86-70)completed a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4-3 Sunday win and are now 15-2 in their last 17 games to move into a virtual tie with the Nationals (85-79) for the top wild card.Catching either of those teams seems like a REAL stretch for the Mets. However, Sunday's win by the Mets (81-74) assured them of just their THIRD non-losing season this decade. Also, New York hit three HRs on Sunday to push the franchise record to 231 (note: in comparison, the Marlins have hit only 134 HRs). Staying with Miami, the 54-101 (.348) Marlins have been playing out the string for most of a second straight rebuilding season. Miami finished with the NL's worst record in 2018 (63-98, .391) and will do so again in 2019. Taking the mound for tonight's contest are two lefties, Miami's Caleb Smith (9-10, 4.24 ERA) and New York's Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16 ERA). Smith had lost four straight decisions before getting a victory at Arizona last Tuesday, although he allowed four ERs in five innings. Smith opened the season allowing two ERs in EIGHT of his first nine starts (allowed just three ERs in the other one), posting a 3-1 record with a 2.38 ERA (sad-sack Marlins were just 5-4). He's pretty much struggled the rest of the season pitching for the NL's worst team, as his ERA has risen almost two FULL runs to 4.24. The Mets counter with Matz, who is coming off an 'ugly' outing at Coors Field, allowing seven ERs in just four innings of a 9-4 loss. However, he had allowed just nine ERs over his previous seven starts, posting a 1.77 ERA in 45.2 innings. Matz has struggled all season on the road (6.62 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / .2923 BAA) but here at Citi Field, the numbers are 1.94 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .225 BAA. Matz has had little trouble with the Marlins in his career (2.83 ERA in 11 starts) and the Mets have won 11 of 15 vs Miami in 2019. Note that the Mets have won 10 of Matz's 13 home starts in 2019, and just TWO of those 10 home wins have come by one run. The other eight have had a margin of victory of 4.4 RPG. Matz faces a Marlins lineup which ranks 29th in scoring (3.77 per), 26th in team BA (.240) and 30th in OPS (.671). Laying the 1 1/2 runs seems 'cheap!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory. Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks. Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing. The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!). Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road. Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-19 | Appalachian State v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET. Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. However, the Tar Heels lost their first true road game of 2019 at Wake Forest, 24-18. North Carolina used fourth-quarter comebacks to win its first two games of the season and came back from 21-3 down in the final quarter against Wake but time ran out on them. 2-0 Appalachian State comes to Chapel Hill this Saturday, after enjoying an early-season bye week. The Mountaineers scored a combined 98 points in home victories over East Tennessee State and Charlotte to open the season and are certainly one of the top contenders in the Sun Belt (note: App St received 12 votes in the national coaches poll this week). RB Darrynton Evanshas rushed for 333 yards in two games (10.1 YPC / 4 TDs), while QB Zac Thomas has completed 68.2% for 332 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 12-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to EIGHT straight wins. Appalachian State is averaging 49.0 PPG (12th) and 276.5 YPG rushing (14th) but of course, the team's first two opponents leave much to be desired. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for 701 yards with six TDs and zero INTs plus has two RBs making contributions, Javonte Williams (205 yards on 5.5 YPC) and Michael Carter (203 yards on 5.1 YPC).These schools are just 163 miles apart but will meet for the first time since 1940. Appalachian State's transition to FBS staus has gone smoothly, as the Mountaineers are 41-11 the last four seasons, going to and WINNING four bowl games. However, all that success came under head coach Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville. Elijah Drinkwitz is in his first year as a head coach in 2019 and home wins over ETSU and Charlotte haven't proved much of anything. This will be the Mountaineers' first road game and North Carolina will surely look to keep an in-state school like Appalachian State "in its place!" Howell is the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina and he opened his career with two straight 4th-quarter comeback wins, before falling just short in his third game. Mack Brown has reinvigorated the UNC program with confidence and with the school's ACC opener looming next Saturday (against No. 1 Clemson), Brown surely won't want to go into that contest off two straight losses. No one will ever forget Appalachian State's infamous 34-32 upset at Michigan (as a 4-TD underdog) back in 2007 but let me point out that the Mountaineers are 1-15 SU against Power-5 schools this century. No real number to 'sneak under' in this one. Take the Tar Heels. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3 | Top | 45-25 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Sep Game of the Month is on Ohio U at 2:00 ET. The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won NINE games each season in a four-year stretch from 2011 through 2014, playing in four consecutive New Orleans Bowls (ULL won AND covered each one!). However, ULL opened this season on a three-year run of just 18-21, including two bowl losses. The Ragin' Cajuns opened the 2019 season with a 38-28 loss to Miss St (game was played in New Orleans, not Lafayette), before winning home games over Liberty (35-14) and Texas Southern (77-6). ULL was a 19-point underdog against Miss St, so the team heads into its first true road game of the season a perfect 3-0 ATS. Ohio U opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has lost two straight since, both on the road. The Bobcats lost 20-10 at Pitt on Aug 7 and then last Saturday, fell just short in a 33-31 loss at Marshall. That Pitt loss hardly looks so bad now (ask No. 13 Penn St about the Panthers) and remember, Marshall lost by just SEVEN points at Boise St the week before. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke was spectacular at Marshall, passing for 215 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 118 rushing (on just nine carries) and a fourth TD. As noted earlier, this is ULL's first true road game of 2019 and winning in Athens has not been easy for visiting teams, as of late. The Bobcats last lost a home game back on 10/7/17 (26-23 in OT to Central Michigan) and enter this contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Want more? How about these two factoids. Ohio has averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak plus going back to the start of the 2017 season, checks in 8-2 ATS at home over FBS foes. Frank Solich has done a GREAT job at Ohio (NINE bowl appearances over the last 10 seasons) and many think this year's team could win its first MAC championship since 1968. The Bobcats really need a win here, as they get next weekend off, before playing their next EIGHT games against MAC foes, including FOUR weekday games in November. ULL is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out. Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -107 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* American Conference Crusher is on Houston at 8:00 ET. The Houston Cougars and Tulane Green Wave meet Thursday in an American Athletic Conference game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Houston has opened 1-2, losing at No. 4 Oklahoma on Sep 1 and at NRG Stadium last Friday to No. 20 Washington St. In between, the Cougars won 37-17 at home against Prairie View A&M. Thursday's game will be the FOURTH different stadium the team has played in over its first four games. Tulane is playing at home for the THIRD time in four weeks, opening with a 42-14 home win over FIU, losing at No. 10 Auburn 24-6 and then crushing Missouri St 58-6 at home last Saturday. Houston's pass D was overwhelmed by Oklahoma's Hurts and Washington St's Gordon but Tulane QB Justin McMillan is completing a modest 55.2% for 424 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs), while adding 154 yards rushing (3 TDs). FYI...Hurts and Gordon have completed almost 80% of their passes (21-2 TD-to-INT ratio) with Hurts rushing for 373 yards (9.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Houston QB King is not off to a great start but remember, he passed for 2,982 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) and added 674 yards rushing with 14 TDs. He's had a least one TD pass and one rush TD in each game this season, tying Tem Tebow's NCAA record of 14 straight games with at least one TD pass and one rush TD. Let me note that Houston is 23-10 SU in AAC games since 2015, while Tulane has gone 10-22 in league games over the exact same time span.Houston has 'hung around' against two ranked teams, plus was plagued with costly penalties and noticeably wore down due to lack of depth in its 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday. However, while getting better, Tulane is still a middle-of-pack AAC team. Meanwhile, Houston is a HIGHLY-PROFITABLE 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2015. That's a 93% winning situation. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-18-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs won 8-2 over the Reds on Monday but got shut down by Sonny Gray last night (6.2 IP / 4 hits / 2 runs), as the Red beat them 4-2. Chicago had its five-game winning streak snapped and coupled with Milwaukee's win over the Padres, find themselves tied with the Brewers for the final NL wild-card spot. Both teams are 1 1/2 games back of Washington (current No. 1 wild card team) and TWO back of first-place St Louis in the NL Central. Cincinnati caps its nine-game road trip tonight, looking to go 5-4. However, the 71-81 Reds were officially eliminated from playoff contention with Monday's 8-2 loss to the Cubs and another defeat would assure the club of its SIXTH consecutive losing season. Tonight's pitching matchup features Tyler Mahle (2-11, 5.11 ERA) and Jon Lester (13-10, 4.59 ERA). Mahle is hoping to solidify a spot in the 2020 starting rotation. He was placed on the injured list in mid-July with a 2-10 (4.93 ERA) record, as the Reds went 4-15 in his first 19 starts of the season (minus-$1,038 against the moneyline). He's 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA in three starts since returning from Triple-A Louisville (team is 1-2) but while he allowed four runs and eight hits (two HRs) in just 3.1 innings at Seattle last Thursday, the Reds would win that game, 11-5. Why is that significant? It marked the FIRST time the Reds have won one of Mahle's road starts in 2019. He's 0-8 with a 5.45 road ERA in 13 starts (team is 1-12). Lester has not had a disappointing season for Chicago in 2019 and earned one of the wilder victories in his career last Friday. He allowed four first-inning runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates but watched his teammates rally for five runs in the bottom half, of the inning. He left after five innings, having allowed 11 hits and seven runs (four earned) but with a 17-7 lead! Lester has had a rough go in 2019 but things have worked out well for the Cubs in his Wrigley starts The Cubs can't afford to let tonight's game slip away, facing Mahle, who has seen the Reds lose 12 of his 13 road starts. For all of Lester's woes in 2019, the Cubs are 11-4 in his 15 home starts and just ONE of those 11 team wins at home have come by one run. In the other 10, the average margin of victory has been 5.3 RPG. Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-16-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 111 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs welcomed the Pirates to Wrigley Field over the weekend and were able to sweep the three-game series. Meanwhile, the Cards hosted the Brewers for a three-games series. St Louis won Friday's game 10-0 but Milwaukee was able to win Saturday and Sunday. When "all the dust had settled," St Louis sat atop the NL Central, two games up on the Cubs, with the Brewers sitting one game behind Chicago.The Cubs continue their final homstand of the season this week, as they welcome the Reds to Wrigley for a three-game series, before the Cards come in for a four-game series to end the week. Chicago will spend MLB's final week of the regular season with three games in Pittsburgh, followed by three games in St Louis. The Reds cap a nine-game road trip with this series in Chicago, having gone 3-3 so far. Cincy is just 70-89 in 2019 (30-45 on the road) and the Reds' only role these last two weeks is that of a "spoiler." Taking the mound tonight will be Kevin Gausman (3-8, 5.83 ERA) and Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.89 ERA). Sonny Gray was scheduled to start for the Reds but they will instead give Gausman his first start for Cincinnati since being claimed off waivers from Atlanta. Gausman began the 2018 season with Baltimore and was 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts. However, the Orioles were an awful 6-15 in those starts, giving him a minus-$967 moneyline mark. Atlanta made a deal for Gausman at the trade deadline and it worked out well, as Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts (Braves were 7-3). However, Gausman flopped pitching for an excellent Atlanta team in 2019, going 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA (Atlanta "saved him" by going 8-8 in his 16 starts). The Braves eventually gave up on him and Cincy claimed him off waivers. Gausman has made 11 relief appearances for the Reds while posting a 4.02 ERA in 15.2 innings but he does own a 22-3 KW ratio. As for Hamels, he makes his 26th start of the season. He has a 7.58 ERA in his last seven outings, which is quite a drop-off from him posting a 2.84 ERA in his first 18 starts. The 35-year-old has completed as much as six innings in just TWO of his last nine starts, while earning a victory just ONCE in his last 11 outings. Taking that all in, I will still back Hamels and the Cubs here, even laying 1 1/2 runs. Yes, the Cubs are a poor road team (31-44) but only MLB's three-best teams (Astros, Dodgers and Yankees) own a better home mark than Chicago's 50-24 mark at Wrigley Field (outscoring opponents on average, 5.34-to-3.89 RPG). Chicago has dominated right-handers at home this season (41-17), including 20-5 in night games. Getting back to Hamels, he checks in 12-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 20 career starts vs Cincy, with his teams going 18-2. BTW...In two career starts vs the Cubs, Gausman owns a 12.38 ERA. Cubs win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory. RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs. I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | TCU v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Purdue at 7:30 ET. Purdue led Nevada 24-7 at the half in Reno and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites), on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The 'killer' was five turnovers and the Boilermakers knew they had to correct that right away. Purdue hosted Vanderbilt last Saturday and its lone turnover was an interception thrown by QB Elijah Sindelar. However, the junior could be forgiven, as he was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after completing 34-of-52 passes for a career-high 509 yards and five touchdowns. Sindelar became the 18th player to surpass 3,000 passing yards at Purdue and although he suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter, he practiced Wednesday and is expected to play. TCU opened its 2019 season with a 39-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Aug 31 and then had last week off. Gary Patterson has had some career at TCU, taking over full-time in 2001 and going to 16 bowls the last 18 seasons. Eleven times his teams have won double digits in a single season, including the 2010 team going 13-0 after a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin (TCU ended as the nation's 2nd-ranked team). The Horned Frogs did go 11-3 in 2017 but in 2016 went 6-7 after a bowl loss and in 2019 went 7-6, after a bowl win. The Horned Frogs played two QBs in their season-opening win and graduate transfer Alex Delton and freshman Max Duggan are expected to split snaps once again. The duo completed 26 of 45 for 284 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) and the running game ran for 200 yards (5.6 YPC). However, the opponent WAS Arkansas-Pine Bluff. TCU averaged just 23.5 PPG, after a four-year run of averaging 33.6, 31.0, 42.1 and 46.5. The defense only returns five starters but Patterson rarely fields a poor defensive team. Still, Sindelar has thrown for 932 yards with nine TDs in his first two games and has one of the nation's best WRs in Rondale Moore, who caught 114 passes last season for 12 TDs. He already has 24 catches and two TDs after two games. Purdue has a HUGE edge at the QB position and with next week off (Big Ten play begins Sep 28), this is a "statement" game for Purdue's season. Take a note that in 2018, Purdue beat three ranked opponents at home ( #23 BC 30-13, 32 Ohio St 49-20 and #19 Iowa 38-360, for the first time since 1959. The small home dog 'barks' VERY 'loudly' in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | Iowa -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Cy-Hawk Rivalry is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Iowa State struggled in its season opener at home against Northern Iowa on Aug 31, before winning 29-26 in triple-overtime. The Cyclones were off last weekend, getting an extra week to prepare for its biggest non-conference rival, Iowa.ISU was happy for the extra week off to make necessary adjustments after its lackluster debut. "It’s really good to have an opportunity to step back and say, Is what we’re doing the right thing? Where do we need to get better? What are the things that might help our offense or might help our defense?" offensive coordinator Tom Manning told the Ames Tribune. Iowa comes to Ames 2-0 and ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, after opening with home wins over Miami-Ohio (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). The Hawkeyes have hardly been tested so far by Mia-O and Rutgers but it's good news that QB Nate Stanley, who came into the season with high expectations (52-16 TD-to-INT ratio the last two years), is living up to the hype with 488 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions through the first two games. It's true that Iowa's first two opponents were hardly ranked opponents but Kirk Ferentz-coached teams always play excellent defense. Iowa has opened by allowing 185.0 YPG (4th), 113.5 passing YPG (8th), 71.5 rushing YPG (16th) and 7.0 PPG (8th). The Cyclones managed to survive Northern Iowa in Week 1 thanks in large part to the connection between QB Brock Purdy (30-41 for 278 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and wide receiver Deshaunte Jones, who finished with career highs of 14 catches for 126 yards. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. Having last weekend off is an advantage for ISU but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has figured out this rivalry with FOUR straight wins. Iowa QB Stanley, a senior, is trying to go out 4-0 against the Cyclones, after coming in as a backup his freshman year (a 42-3 win) and starting this rivalry game the last two years in 13-3 and 44-41 wins. Iowa is off next weekend and then hosts Middle Tenn St on Sep 28. A win here and the Hawkeyes should be 4-0 when it begins Big Ten play at Michigan on Oct 5. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Navy at 3:30 ET. | |||||||
09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference ACC Showdown is on Wake Forest at 6:00 ET Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. North Carolina plays its first true road game of 2019 this Saturday, when it visits Winston-Salem to take on ACC rival Wake Forest. Under the current ACC two-division, 14-team alignment, the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons are scheduled to play each other just once every SEVEN years. The schools wanted more and were allowed to play this year in what will be considered a "non-conference" contest (odd arrangement). Dave Clawson got his first FBS head coaching jog at Bowling Green in 2009 and in his fifth season (2013), his Falcons upset a 13-0 Northern Illinois team in the MAC championship game. He used that win to get the job at Wake and after going 3-9 in each of his first two years, he's led Wake to three straight bowl games, winning all THREE! Wake opened with a 38-35 home win over Utah St and then won 41-21 at Rice last Saturday. Both teams have QBs off to excellent starts. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for four scores and 519 yards while directing four-quarter comebacks in each of his first two contests. He's the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina. Eight different receivers have caught at least one pass through two games plus RB Javonte Williams has added 178 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. Wake's Jamie Newman, who won a quarterback battle in training camp after starting the final four games a season ago, has completed 74.3% for 713 yards (that total leads the ACC) with six TDs and not a single INT. The running game chips in 189.5 YPG (4.1 YPC). Kudos to Brown for his team's fast start but the Tar Heels have played at Charlotte (hardly a neutral site against the Gamecocks) plus at home vs Miami. This true road game at Wake will be a big test, against an offense averaging 39.5 PPG on 546.0 YPG (12th), including 356.5 YPG through the air (11th). The Carolina hype is running high, as it's been said that the people at Chapel Hill haven't already turned their attention to Roy Williams' basketball team.Wake owns some explosive playmakers and it just may be time to start talking hoops in Chapel Hill after this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown. It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win. Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts! You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win. The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn. In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons. Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Run-line Rout is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't yet officially clinched their SEVENTH straight NL West title but it's been pretty much a foregone conclusion since the All Star break. However, still at stake for LA here in September is securing the NL's best overall record and catching the Yankees and Astros for MLB's best overall record. Both of those pursuits took a hit last night, as the Dodgers lost 5-4 at home to the Giants. LA is 92-51 but with Atlanta's win over the Nats, the Braves are now 88-54, just 3 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. Over in the AL, Houston and New York are both 92-50, a half-game ahead of LA. Taking the mound tonight will be Tyler Beede (3-9, 5.61 ERA) and Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 2.89), a pair of rookies. Beede's last win came back on July 14 when he won 8-3 at Milwaukee. His next start was OUTSTANDING (eight scoreless innings at home vs the Mets) but he settled for a no-decision in a 1-0 Giants win. However, he's 0-6 with a 6.81 ERA over his last eight starts (team is 0-8). Beede's been awful on the road all season, posting a 6.81 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .297 BAA. Gonsolin's major-league debut was June 26 at Arizona and he allowed four ERs in four innings of an 8-2 loss. He made a relief appearance about a month later but he's been part of the rotation in August, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts. LA is a more modest 2-2 in those starts but note that in his only two home starts this season, he's 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and a .111 BAA! LA can't afford another slip-up against a team like the Giants, who are just 5-12 over their last 17 games to fall out of any realistic hopes in the NL's wild-card chase (8 1/2 games back with FOUR teams between them and the second wild card team / Giants would have to climb over FIVE teams!). The Dodgers own the most home wins of any team in MLB, going 55-19 while outscoring opponents 5.42-to-3.30 RPG. I noted Beede's road numbers (see above) and the rookie right-hander faces a Dodgers lineup which is 41-10 at home vs right-handed starters, averaging 5.8 RPG. Kershaw pitched just four innings last night (allowed three runs) but I expect the rookie to "step up" here vs the hated-Giants. Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 2019's Week 1 saw just one top-25 matchup, as No. 16 Auburn pulled out a late 27-21 win over No. 11 Oregon in Arlington, Tx last Saturday night. The victory moved Auburn to the No. 10 spot in the new AP poll, while Oregon dropped to No. 16.. The two marquee matchups of Week 2 are No. 1 Clemson putting its 16-game winning streak on the line at home vs No. 12 Texas A7M and No. 6 LSU visiting No. 9 Texas. No one really expects A&M to upset Clemson, so in effect, the LSU/Texas game holds more drama and the winner will firmly establish itself as a top-10 team. LSU unveiled a new spread offense in its opener against Georgia Southern and rolled up 472 yards in a 55-3 rout. Texas did not face much of a challenge in its season opener either, easing past Louisiana Tech in Austin, 45-14. LSU's senior QB Joe Burrow was 23-of-27 for 278 yards and five TDs last Saturday, as different players recorded at least one catch. Spreading the ball around is key to the team's new offensive system plus Burrow is trying to get the ball out quicker this season. So far, so good. He was not sacked in the opener. LSU always plays great defense and the out-manned Eagles were held to 98 total yards and just eight FDs. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger completed 28-of-38 passes for 276 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the opener but LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country. Texas ran for 153 yards last week (5.1 YPC) but doing that again vs LSU's defensive front is HIGHLY unlikely. A concern for Texas is the Longhorns allowing 413 total yards against La Tech, including 340 through the air. Ex-Saints aide Joe Brady had LSU's "new-look" passing game in mid-season form but should LSU really be favored hetr in Austin (and by about a TD!!)? The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday and that opens the door for fatigue to play a role. Tom Herman has made quite a name for himself in his four years as a head coach in "big games." He is 10-6 SU as an underdog and a MONEY-MAKING 13-2-1 ATS. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano admitted he was "disgusted" following the eight-point loss, which is even a little deceptive given that the Volunteers scored a last-second TD. BYU comes to Knoxville off a NINTH straight "Holy War" loss to Utah. The Cougars fell 30-12,as three BYU turnovers led directly to three Utah scores. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's first losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his fourth season at BYU and the offense is led by sophomore QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TD passes in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). Wilson rushed for 43 yards vs Utah, while achieving career highs in passing attempts (33) and completions (21). However, he threw for a modest 208 yards plus had two interceptions returned for TDs. BYU ran for only 92 yards and gained only 14 FDs. Defensively, BYU allowed 262 yards on the ground (5.5 YPC). Technical trends surely don't favor the Vols, who are now 3-12 ATS over their last 15 home games. Meanwhile, BYU is 9-2 as a road dog since the beginning of 2016. However, I'm throwing out the tech trends here, as Tennessee had won 30 straight home games vs non-Power-5 conference schools prior to last week.QB Guarantano recorded the second 300-yard game of his career last Saturday finishing with 311 yards and a pair of TDs. Another postive was Tennessee committed just THREE penalties last week. It's just Week 2 but the Vols could be in a "Make or Break" seasonal mode in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL) is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros are cruising toward another AL West title (lead by NINE games) but are in a 'dog fight' with the Yankees for the AL's No. 1 seed. The 90-50 Astros are 1 1/2 games back of the 92-49 Yankees as they get set to welcome the Seattle Mariners to Houston for a four-games series on Thursday night. The Mariners continue their road trip after managing a total of just TWO runs while dropping a two-game set at the Chicago Cubs to open the week. Seattle has lost SEVEN of nine and has scored three or fewer runs in SIX of its last eight games. Remember how Seattle opened the 2019 at 13-2. If you don't, you are NOT alone. Taking the mound tonight will be Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.30 ERA) and Wade Miley (13-4, 3.06 ERA). Gonzales won 13 games in 29 starts in 2018 (his first as a full-time starter) and makes his 30th start in this one with 14 victories. However, he saw a stretch of four straight starts allowing three runs or less come to an end when he gave up six runs (five earned) on seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a 6-3 loss at Texas on Friday. Miley is part of a Houston starting rotation which features Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke but he's been the Astros' biggest money-maker. The Astros have won of his 28 starts, giving him a moneyline record of plus-$955 (8th-best in MLB). Gonzlaes has pitched well for a team which collapsed after that 13-2 start (Seattle is just 45-80, .360 since) but he's up against it here. The lefty faces a Houston lineup that has gone 29-9 against left-handed starters in 2019, including 17-3 at home. More trouble comes in the fact that he's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA over six career appearances (five starts / teams are 0-5) against the Astros. Miley is tied for third in the AL in ERA and enters this contest having allowed three ERs or less in each of his last 12 outings! Miley is 3-1 (3.40 ERA) in seven career starts against Seattle (teams are 6-1) and this year's Seattle team is 16-30 against lefties, including a woeful 3-12 in road night games. Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Game of the Month (ACC) is on Va Tech at 4:00 ET. Florida State's 5-7 finish in 2018 was the school's worst since 1975 and its sub-500 season ended FSU's remarkable streak of 36 straight bowl appearances. That over-shadowed what happened in Blacksburg. Yes, Va Tech's 6-6 regular season record extended the school's bowl streak to 26 in a row (now the longest active streak) but the Hokies' 35-31 loss to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl gave the school its first losing season since 1992. Tech opened 4-2 but a four-game losing streak meant the Hokies needed to win their last two regular season games to make a bowl (see above for that result). Tech opens 2019 with a conference game on the road, as the Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College. The Eagles beat Va Tech in Blacksburg 31-21 on Nov 2, giving them a 7-2 record and a top-25 ranking. However, BC lost its final three regular season games, before the school's bowl game against Boise St was cut short after one quarter by severe weather. BC has won exactly SEVEN games in FIVE of head coach Steve Addazio's six seasons, earning a bowl bid each time. Ryan Willis took over early last season at QB and threw for 2,716 yards and 24 TDs with nine interceptions in 12 games. The senior is primed for a big year. WRs Damon Hazelton (51 catches / 802 yards / 8 TDs) and Tre Turner (26 catches / 535 yards / 4 TDs) will be his top targets, while junior TE Dalton Keene (28 catches) could have a breakout season. The rushing game will be RB by committee but Fuente had outstanding offenses at Memphis and this year's Va Tech team has all of the makings of a dynamic offense. Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster has been at Va Tech 'forever,' and after a succession of top-10 defenses for more than two decades, it's hard to NOT see a bounce-back from Tech's defense in 2019 (Tech allowed 31 PPG and almost 440 YPG in 2018). Note: 10 of 11 starters are back. Junior RB Dillon missed roughly a month last year due to an ankle injury but he still finished with 1,108 yards and 10 TDs (he gained 1,589 yards with 14 TDs as a freshman). Junior QB Anthony Brown (2,121 passing yards, / 20 TDs) is back and he he'll and operate behind a solid Boston College OL. The BC defense returns just three starters from a unit which allowed 25.7 PPG and just over 400 YPG. Boston College will undoubtedly be looking up at Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division and probably Syracuse, as well. That means the Eagles will be fighting with FSU (greatly improved in 2019) and NC St for a third-place finish and a bowl berth. Meanwhile, the ACC's Coastal Division is wide-open and Va Tech is as good a pick as any to win it. The Hokies had beaten the Eagles in three straight before last year's game, winning by an average of 26 points. However, after the Hokies led 14-7 at the half last season, BC scored 24 unanswered points in an eventual 31-21 victory. Va Tech has won 23-10 and 26-10 in in last two visits to BC. That sounds about right, here. Revenge works! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* August Game of the Month is on Florida St at 7:00 ET (note: game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee). The Boise St Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs BC was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the L20 years. The beat should go on at Boise this season, as the Broncos look to secure their 18th straight bowl berth. The Broncos open their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee(game moved from Jacksonville due to weather issues) where they will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Willie Taggart's 1st season in Tallahassee was an unqualified 'disaster,' as FSU's 5-7 finish was the school's worst s/1975. More notably, its bowl streak of 36 straight appearances came to an end. The Seminoles losing record was no fluke, as FSU lost FIVE games by 21 points or more, including a 59-10 loss to Clemson. There is little doubt that Boise will again be "bowl-bound," as unlike in 2018 when the Broncos faced FOUR ranked teams, they may not face ANY in 2019. However, there are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball for Boise heading into 2019. 4-year starter Brett Rypien has finally graduated and left as the MWC’s all-time leading passer with 13,578 yards. The successor remained up in the air into fall camp, as five candidates who had attempted just 10 passes between them were competing in the spring. Hank Bachmeier has been hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State history and just recently, head coach Bryan Harsin said Bachmeier will be the Broncos’ starting QB for their 2019 season opener. “Hank earned it,” Harsin said. “It wasn’t given to him. ... He made throws, he completed passes, he did things in the pocket and he made decisions out there that we want to see. And whether a freshman, senior, doesn’t matter, those are the things that we’re looking for at that position.” That said, Boise St lost its top-2 WRs from 2018 and early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) leaves a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018 (Harsin has talked about a "RB by committee"option) so Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1000-yard rusher might come to end. FSU had QB questions coming into this season as well, but head coach Willie Taggart made the announcement last Sunday that James Blackman has won the starting job. Blackman beat out Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook and Louisville transfer Jordan Travis. Blackman has started 13 games, including 12 as a true freshman in 2017. He has thrown for 2,740 yards, 24 TDs & 12 INTs at FSU. In his only 2018 start, Blackman threw for 421 yards, four TDs and one interception in a 47-28 road loss to NC State. Taggert’s offense will have a different look this year with new O.C. Kendall Briles running the show. Briles’ features a fast-paced but simplified attack and expect Blackman to utilize an up-tempo attack, looking to keep the Broncos defense on its heels. Speaking of defense, EIGHT of FSU's top-10 tacklers are back and the unit has pledged to but last season's collapse (allowed 42.0 PPG its last five) in "the rear-view mirror." I'm predicting a big "bounce-back" season for Taggert and FSU, as the Seminoles are loaded and athletic across the board. I expect the Boise D to be "on its heels," struggling in the heat and humidity of a "Hot August Night" in Florida (something the boys from Idaho can't simulate in practice). Yes, QB Hank Bachmeier is highly-touted but expect the true freshman to be in for a 'LONG' night against a highly-motivated and athletic FSU defense. I'm calling a two-TD 'cover' from FSU! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-19 | Utah -6.5 v. BYU | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Utah at 10:15 ET. You know it's a bitter rivalry when the schools involved can't even agree on when the first game was played. Utah claims a lead of 61–34–4, while BYU claims Utah leads 58–31–4, as BYU does not count the six games between Utah and Brigham Young Academy in its records (played prior to 1922). Either way, Utah has a large lead in the overall series and dominated the rivalry prior to 1972 by going 41–8–4. Then, BYU dominated the series with a record of 19–2 from 1972 to 1992. However, since 1993, Utah is 18-7, including EIGHT straight wins. Despite some key late-season injuries in 2018, Utah finished atop the South standings (6-3) for the 1st time since entering the Pac-12 in 2011, before losing a hard-fought 10-3 defensive battle to Washington in the Pac-12 champ game. The Utes would then lose 31-20 to Northwestern in the Holiday bowl to finish 9-5. However, at the Pac-12 media gathering in July, the Utes garnered 33 of the 35 1st-place votes in the South & edged the North’s Oregon (11 votes) & Washington (nine) with 12 votes as the projected conference title game winner. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's 1st losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss (an All-Pac 12 preseason choice) are both ready to go in 2019. They both missed LY's Pac-12 championship loss, as well as the Utes' bowl loss. Huntley is back after missing the L5 games of 2018 with a broken collarbone. When healthy, he is a dual threat at QB. As for Moss, he racked up 1,096 yards (6.1 YPC) & 11 TDs in just nine games, before a knee injury ended his season early. On the other side of the ball, Utah boasts one of the nation’s top DLs, led by Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu and John Penisini. The talented secondary is led by preseason All-Pac 12 first-team selections Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson. Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his 4th season at BYU and the offense will be led by soph QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TDPs in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). The team's rushing attack is a question mark, as LY's leading rusher Lopini Katoa ran for only 423 yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs). BYU played good defense last season, allowing a modest 21.4 PPG on 325.2 YPG and its strength this year will be a seconddary that returns CB Chris Wilcox plus safeties Dayan Ghanwoloku & Austin Lee (trio combined for 31 starts last season). BYU blew a 27-7 lead with a minute left in the 3rd Q of LY's game, before suffering a painful 35-27 defeat in Salt Lake City. Revenge? With a visit to Tennessee up next and then back-to-back home games against USC and Washington, winning here will be even more important. That said, BYU has had played with revenge vs Utah for some time now, as Utah has won EIGHT straight in the series. Whittingham has quite a run at Utah since taking over for Urban Meyer after the 2004 season. He's led the Utes to 12 bowls the L14 years, winning 10. His teams have finished in the final AP poll FIVE times, including a No. 2 finish back in 2008, when the team capped a 13-0 season with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. In 2014, 2015 & 2016, the Utes finished ranked after beginning the season unranked. This year's team may not be as special as the 2008 one (no way) but Utah is ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll and it's well-deserved. Expect more 'pain' to come BYU's way in yet another "Holy War." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-19 | Raiders v. Seahawks -2 | Top | 15-17 | Push | 0 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 10:00 ET. Jon Gruden's first season back in the NFL went very poorly in 2018, as the Raiders finished 4-12 (last-place in the AFC West) and 6-10 ATS. Gruden has always had a good preseason record and he's been perfect so far in 2019, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Raiders opened with a 14-3 home win over the disinterested Rams, then won 33-26 at Arizona in Week 2. Oakland made it THREE straight wins last Thursday with a 22-21 win over the Packers, a game played in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The contest was played on a field shortened to 80 yards for player safety. The end zones were marked by bright orange pylons at the 10-yard lines and there were no kickoffs. The field was reconfigured because of concerns about the areas where the goal posts for the CFL's Winnipeg franchise were removed and covered with turf. Before warmups, game officials and staff from both clubs examined the turf that covered the goal post spots for 110-yard CFL games. The goal posts would have been inside the NFL end zones. Packers coach Matt LaFleur decided to sit 33 players, including star QB Aaron Rodgers, yet the Raiders needed a Daniel Carlson 33-yard field goal with 8 seconds remaining to earn the one point win. Like Gruden, Seattle's Pete Carroll has an excellent preseason record and the Seahawks are 2-1 SU and ATS in 2019, losing only at Minnesota, another outstanding preseason team under head coach Mike Zimmer. Russell Wilson directed the Seahawks to a pair of TDs and a field goal in five possessions in two preseason games and it's unlikely that he will play in Thursday's preseason finale. Geno Smith seemed well ahead of Paxton Lynch entering the first preseason contest against Denver (Aug 8) but Lynch, playing against deeper Broncos reserves, out-played Smith that night while Smith played on the cyst in his knee. He had it removed the next day. Lynch was 11 for 15 for 109 yards and a touchdown pass. Smith sat out the Minnesota loss, while Lynch was 6 for 15 against the Vikings before he had his 'bell rung.' Lynch sat out Week 3 (concussion protocol) and Smith entered on the fourth series (following Wilson's solid effort), with the score 13-3. He led the Seahawks to scores on his first two drives, the kind of performance that may go a long way toward earning him the backup spot over Lynch. Smith led the Seahawks on drives of 48, 73 and 74 yards the first three times he was in the game, completing 10 of 16 passes for 117 yards and also rushing four times for 26 yards while adding a TD. Oakland wraps its preseason with this game in Seattle, returning from Winnipeg (won't here that again for awhile). It's hard to see Carr playing much (if at all) and that leaves Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. For some reason, Gruden likes Peterman but why? Consider this. Peterman is arguably the worst QB in the history of the NFL, as no QB with at least 100 pass attempts in the last 20 years has a lower career passer rating than Peterman's 32.5! Carroll rarely needs motivation in a preseason game but note that the Raiders beat the Seahawks 30-19 in Week 4 of last year's preseason (in Seattle), as E.J. Manuel, a former NFL starter, threw four TD passes (Manuel is long gone). In last year's contest, Carroll's QBs were career fourth-stringer Austin Davis and then-rookie Alex McGough (now 'stinking it up' in Jacksonville). Here, we should see plenty of a highly-motivated Geno Smith (dangerous against non-starters) plus maybe some Paxton Lynch or rookie J.T. Barrett. No 4-0 preseason here for Oakland, as Seattle wins handily Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Broncos v. Rams -1 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 9:00 ET. The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams get together Saturday in LA and neither team expects to play its starters very much. "Most of the guys you refer to as ‘starters’ will not play in the game (Saturday),” Denver head coach Vic Fangio said before practice on Thursday. “It’s our fourth (preseason) game, not our third, and we just felt like it’s the best thing to do for our team now.” As for LA, head coach Sean McVay has used his starters sparingly in the team's first two games and there is NO reason to expect him to do otherwise in this contest (more on that in a bit). The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. We'll have to wait until the regular season to judge if he was a good hire. The Broncos have played three preseason games, starting out with a 14-10 win over the Falcons in the Hall of Fame Game (needed a TD with 1 1/2 minutes remaining to beat a team which has now lost 12 straight preseason games.) Denver followed with a 22-14 loss at Seattle, before losing this past Monday at home to the 49ers, 24-15 The Rams looked disinterested in Week 1 in a 14-3 loss at Oakland, gaining just 190 total yards with just 10 FDs. Things weren't much better in Wee2, as the Rams lost in Hawaii 14-10 against the Cowboys. LA gained 270 yards (with 14 FDs) in that one but went scoreless in the second half. McVay has treated the preseason as merely exhibition games and it's worked well. He took over a franchise in 2017 that hadn't had a winning season since 2003 and has won back-to-back NFC West titles, going 11-5 in 2017 and 13-3 last year. Some may remember, the Rams almost beat the Pats in last year's Super Bowl. There can be little argument that McVay's reserves are better than Denver's. Flacco and Lock (team's No.2 QB) will NOT see time here, as Kevin Hogan will start, backed up by Brett Rypien. Hogan may have been 36-10 as Stanford's starting QB but he's played in just eight NFL games (one start), with four TDs and seven INTs (61.5 QB rating. Hogan is 13-of 30 (43.3%) for 104 yards (zero TDs and one INT) in the 2019 preseason. Rypien is a rookie who did throw the game-winning TD pass in the HOF game but hasn't played since. As for the Rams, Blake Bortles should see plenty of action at QB and let's not forget that he was the overall No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft by Jacksonville. He threw for 35 TDs and almost 4,500 yards in 2015 and in 2017, led the Jags to the AFC championship game at New England, where Jacksonville coughed up a 4th-quarter lead. As noted above, this game will be decided by the reserves but Fangio has made it well-known he has little interest in doing anything but keeping his team healthy. It is hardly a good situation that this will be Denver's fourth game in FOUR different cities this preseason, plus will be back on the field again next Thursday in Denver. Sure, McVay has played it close to the vest in the preseason but his team has gone 3-1 SU in home preseason games the last two years (lone loss came by two points). NOTE: This will be LA's LONE home game of the 2019 preseason. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 130 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Battle 4 Florida is on Miami-Fl at 7:00 ET. The Gators fell apart under Jim McElwain, going 4-7 in 2017. To the rescue came Miss St head coach Dan Mullen, who had earlier served as Urban Meyer’s O.C. for two Florida national-title teams (2006 and 2008). Tim Tebow, flourished under Mullen, as did Miss St QBs Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. The Gators became relevant again in 2018, finishing 10-4 in 2018 after its 41-15 romp over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016). Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC title game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Manny Diaz was Miami's DC from 2016-18 and after Richt's retirement on December 30, 2018, Diaz was hired as head coach. The “Mullen Magic” worked a year ago for Gator QB Feleipe Franks, who had disappointed for McElvain as a freshman in 2017. He had 24 TDPs and just six INTs, after a 9-8 ratio in 2017. He developed into a real SEC signal-caller last year under Mullen. The top-seven pass catchers return from 2018 and RB Lamical Perine needs 1,189 rushing yards to become the Gators’ first 3,000-yard career rusher since Earnest Graham at the end of the Steve Spurrier era. A worry could be replacing four multi-year starters along the OL. Retaining DC Todd Grantham was good news, as in wins against Florida State and Michigan to cap the 2018 season, the D forced five TOs, recorded 10 sacks, and held the Seminoles and Wolverines to a combined 7-for-30- on third downs. Seven starters return. No one can blame Diaz' D for LY's 'collapse. Diaz is considered the mastermind behind the "Turnover Chain," a Cuban link chain with a charm in the shape of the school's iconic "U" logo. Despite the team's 7-6 record in 2018, Miami ranked No. 2 in total defense and ranked No. 1 in several other categories. In fact, Miami led the nation in “havoc rate” (total combined tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles, divided by total plays) a year ago. Offense, or the lack thereof, is what held back the "U" a year ago. Miami ranked 105th in total offense and an embarrassing 113th in passing, as neither senior Malik Rosier nor red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry provided anything remotely like consistency at the QB spot. In fact, the most important Diaz hire might be new OC Dan Enos, a former Michigan State QB and onetime HC at Central Michigan, who was most recently the QB coach for Nick Saban’s Alabama staff. It turns out that Jarren Williams, who was highly recruited but couldn’t get in a game last year (he did get in one, playing garbage time against cupcake Savannah State, going 1 for 3 for 17 yards), has beaten out Perry and highly-touted Ohio St transfer, Tate Martell. Diaz has made a bold choice and Williams gets tested right away vs Florida in Orlando (Gators are ranked No. 8 in the preseason coaches' poll). Not many expected Florida to return to the top-10 as quickly as it did a year ago and I'm one who believes the Gators are rated too high this early. These two rivals used to play annually but haven’t faced off since 2013 (Miami won 21-16) and not in an opener since 1987, when the 'Canes won 31-4. I guess Orlando is "closer to home" for Florida than it is for Miami but I want the points with the MUCH better defensive team. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-22-19 | Giants v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 7:00 ET. The New York Giants will play their first road game of the preseason on Thursday when they head to Cincinnati to take on the 1-1 Bengals. The Giants have been a big surprise, scoring 31 points in a nine-point win over the Jets on Aug 8 and then beat the Bears 32-13 last Friday. Eli Manning went 4-of-4 against the Bears for 42 yards and a TD, prized-rookie Daniel Jones has looked comfortable through two preseason games. He went 5-of-5 in Week 1 with a TD and the 11-of-14 for 161 yards in Week 2 and another TD. Is there a QB controversy? Reports say that Eli Manning will be the starting QB in Week 1 of action. With that said, expect Jones to get even more snaps and reps with the first unit this week. The Chiefs overwhelmed the Bengals at KC in Week 1, winning 38-17. However, Cincy rebounded in Week 2, winning 23-13 at Washington last Thursday. No. 1 QB Andy Dalton has thrown exactly nine passes in each of the first two games, completing 14 or 77.8%. However, he does not have a TD pass and has one INT. Rookie QB Ryan Finley was terrific in the win at Washington, completing 20-of-26 for 150 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Dalton should see a little more time here in this Week 3 (dress rehearsal) contest but expect Finley to keep getting significant work. The Giants have overachieved so far the first two weeks and away from home, expect a drop-off. OBJ is in Cleveland plus the team has all sorts of 'holes' in its receiving corps. WRs Corey Coleman is out of the season with a torn ACL, Sterling Shepard will not be playing in the preseason contests after suffering a broken thumb in last Thursday’s drills and Golden Tate is on suspension in four regular season games for taking banned substances that enhance playing performance. This marks Cincy's first home game of the preseason and marks the home debut of rookie head coach Zac Taylor. Note that Finley played at NC State and had just as good a year (arguably slightly better) than Daniel Jones had at Duke. Jones was the sixth overall pick by the Giants, while Finley went in the fourth round (104th overall). Will (can) Finley make a point, here? More importantly, expect a let down for the Giants after scoring 63 points in their first two games, while the Bengals win Taylor's home debut. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos -1 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Monday Night Game of the Year is on the Den Broncos at 8:00 ET. The 49ers had some high hopes for 2018 after finishing hot the previous season, but the team was riddled with injuries to key players, most notably QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is expected to be available by the start of the regular season and as I noted in taking the 49ers (over the Cowboys) in NFLX Week 1, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Beathard was 13 of 17 for 141 yards and Mullens 11 of 17 for 105 vs Dallas, (each had a TDP and an INT). The 48ers' D held Dallas scoreless in the second half and the 49ers won 17-9. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span The Broncos eked out a 14-10 HOF game win over the Falcons but as all know, EVERYONE beats Atlanta in the preseason recently (Falcons are 0-11 since 2017). The Broncos then lost 22-14 in Week 1 at Seattle but as most know as well, Pete Carroll is one of the NFL's best preseason coaches. Joe Flacco will be Denver's starting QB come the regular season but he won't see much time this preseason but I would expect him to see some action in Denver's 'home opener,' which is also Fangio's first home game. Drew Lock completed 17 of 28 for 180 yards (TD and INT) last week and is playing a lot in these preseason games, getting familiar with the offense and what is expected of him. San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan has now won each of his first three NFLX Week 1 games as the Niners' head coach but note the last two preseasons, he's 1-5 SU the other six. He almost HAS to win to cover in this contest and I believe the motivation all sides with the home team in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Week is on the TB Bucs at 7:30 ET. Miami’s rookie head coach Brian Flores picked up a "W" in his debut, as the Dolphins edged the Atlanta Falcons 34-27 last Thursday. It's great to get a win but the Dolphins were fortunate. The Falcons have now lost 10 straight preseason games and it's easy to see why. Atlanta was The Falcons were flagged for 12 penalties (97 yards) and with the game tied at 27-all at the two-minute warning, Atlanta turned it over on downs by failing on fourth-and-nine from its own 16-yard-line! How about that for game-management! Two plays later, Miami scored the winning TD! Bruce Arians is not new to coaching, as his regular season record is 58–33–1 (.636) and he's earned Coach-of-the-Year honors twice, in 2012 (Indy) and 2014 (Arizona). However, he is new at Tampa. His Bucs’ offense gained 479 yards and gained 31 FDs at Pittsburgh last week but came up on the short end of a 30-28 final (TB went for two after each of its final two TDs, failing both times). Ryan Fitzgerald had some good games for the Bucs last season and is now expected to be Miami's starting QB (note: he had better skill players to work with at Tampa Bay). Josh Rosen is also looking to win the starting QB job and got plenty of work vs the Falcons. However, he was under pressure regularly by an opponent (Atlanta) that excels in losing preseason games (now 10 straight for the Falcons). In the end, Rosen looked like no more than an average NFL quarterback. Bruce Arians is loaded with energy and his early press conferences strongly indicate he intends to be aggressive and wants to get a winning attitude established. The Bucs have gone 5-11 in consecutive seasons and Jameis Winston has won only 21 of 56 career starts as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. Winston finished 5 of 6 for 40 yards with a 9-yard touchdown pass to Chris Godwin in his lone series of action vs Pittsburgh. The Bucs faced third down just once during his 12-play, 81-yard drive. "It was a perfect drive," Arians said. "We ran the ball well, and that sets up a lot of stuff for us. I thought Jameis took what was there." I expect to see Winston a little more here and note that the Bucs have beaten the Dolphins in FOUR of the teams' five preseason meetings going back to 2011. Great spot for the home team here vs its in-state rival. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (NL) is on the LA Dodgers at 4:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers own a National League-best 78-41 record (the Houston's .658 win percentage barely tops LA's .655) and their 47-16 home record (outscoring opponents 5.30-to-3.16 RPG) is tops in the majors (18-game margin over the Diamondbacks in the NL West is MLB's largest division lead). The Dodgers complete a 10-game homestand (7-2 so far) by hosting Arizona on Sunday in the rubber match of their three-game series. The D'backs won 3-2 (11 inn.) on Friday, a game which featured a brief benches-clearing confrontation. The Dodgers recorded their 13th shutout with a 4-0 victory on Saturday and there was no hangover from that bench-clearing brawl. Mike Leake (9-8, 4.24 ERA) will make his second start in a Diamondbacks uniform, opposed by Hyun-Jin Ryu (11-2, 1.53 ERA), who returns from the injured list (neck). Leake was the eighth pick of the 2009 draft and made his Diamondbacks' debut on Tuesday night, after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline. It was his first start since July 30 and he did not factor in the decision after allowing three runs - two earned - and 11 hits in 5.1 innings of Arizona's 8-4 victory over Philadelphia. Leake is 5-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts) against the Dodgers but hasn't faced them since 2017. Ryu settled for a no-decision despite scattering three hits over six scoreless innings in LA's 5-1 victory at Colorado back on July 31, before going on the IL. The 32-year-old South Korean is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award and here's why. Except for him allowing seven ERs over just four innings back on June 28 (13-9 LA loss), the lefty has allowed two ERs or less in each one of his other 20 starts of 2019! He's 8-0 in 10 home starts (Dodgers are 10-0), posting an 0.89 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and a .187 BAA. Leake has now joined his FIFTH team, after going 102-95 with a 4.04 ERA in 291 games (286 starts) with Cincinnati, San Francisco, St Louis and Seattle. He is no more than a journeyman and I expect the D'backs to fade away over the next few weeks, as they currently sit 2 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot but have FOUR teams between them and the postseason berth. As for LA and Ryu, expect no "fading away!" Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 58 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the SF 49ers at 9:00 ET. The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers meet Saturday at Levi's Stadium in the final game of NFLX Week 1 action. Jason Garrett took over as the Cowboys' head coach during the 2011 season,. He went 8-8 in each of the next three years but Dallas has won the NFC East three times over the last five seasons. However, Dallas has yet to advance past the Divisional Round in the postseason. Is this finally going to be a make-or-break season for him? Jim Harbaugh took over at San Francisco in 2011, with the 49ers having suffered EIGHT consecutive non-winning seasons. He led the 49ers to a 36-11-1 record the next three seasons, losing twice in the NFC championship game and once in the Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, Harbaugh and the 49ers mutually agreed to part ways. The 49ers have followed with records of 5-11, 2-14, 6-10 and 4-12, the last two under current head coach Kyle Shanahan. There is no doubt that Garrett is under a ton of pressure to win in 2019 but this is the preseason. Dallas was 0-4 in last year's preseason and under Garrett, the Cowboys are just 13-20 SU and 11-22 ATS in the exhibition season. Prescott won't see much if any time in this one and the team's backup QB battle between Cooper Rush and Mike White features players without a single NFL start, with neither having played well in limited opportunities. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be ready by the start of the regular season but unlike Dallas, San Francisco should have one of the better backup QB battles in the league. C.J. Beathard (10 starts) and Nick Mullens (eight starts) have both "had their moments" in regular season action. Don't be surprised if either (both?) carve up the second and third-unit defenses of the Cowboys. The 49ers are 2-0 in Week 1 preseason games Shanahan, scoring 27 and 24 points in those games (better than most!). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-08-19 | Jaguars v. Ravens -4 | Top | 0-29 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bal Ravens at 7:30 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens meet Thursday at M&T Bank Stadium. The Jags are "all in" with Nick Foles at QB but he is hardly expected to see any real action in this road game (note: Jags host the Eagles, Foles' former team, next Thursday). As for the Ravens, they've officially entered "the Lamar Jackson era." That said, like Foles, Jackson won't be around for long on Thursday night. We know that second and third-stringers typically determine Week 1 winners (SU & ATS) but what I can't ignore is that John Harbaugh leads his team into the 2019 preseason on a 13-game winning streak, going 11-2 ATS (that's an 85% winning situation). Sure, the Ravens will eventually lose a preseason game but isn't that a reasonable person would have said entering 2018, but Baltimore then went 5-0, which began with a HOF game win. Why "step in front of the Ravens' winning streak" with a Jacksonville team which will feature QBs Tanner Lee, Alex McGough and Gardner Minshew. That trio has combined for ZERO pass attempts in an NFL game! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-02-19 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL) is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. However, a six-game winning streak from June 22-28 gave Texas a 46-36 record, which had the team thinking "wild card." The Rangers cooled somewhat into the All Star break but returned to beat the Astros in their first two games post-break, giving them a 50-42 mark. The Rangers were "right in the wild card hunt" at that time but open a weekend three-game series with the Tigers having lost 12 of 16, falling 7 1/2 games out of the AL's second wild card spot. The Tigers are 4-15 since the break and have caught and passed the Orioles for the title of MLB's "worst team." Detroit owns an unwanted 'daily double,' featuring MLB's worst record (32-72), as well as its worst moneyline mark (minus-$2,687). Rookie Tyler Alexander (0-1, 3.86 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit, opposed by Texas veteran Lance Lynn (13-6, 3.83 ERA). Alexander is looking for his first major league win in his fourth start. Expecting for it to come here is unliklely, as in two road starts, he owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (Tigers are 0-2). Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, he's "settled in" with Texas, having allowed three ERs or less in 16 of his 22 starts this season. He broke out of a two-start slump at Oakland last Friday, when he held the A's to two runs (one earned) on four hits while striking out eight over six innings of a 5-2 win.. Detroit ranks last in scoring (3.58 RPG) and team BA (.231) plus second-to-last in OPS (.671) and HRs (98). Texas averages 5.63 RPG at home and the Rangers are 9-2 in Lynn's home starts in 2019. This 'W" comes "with room to spare." Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. KD remained out in Game 3 for the Warriors and Klay Thompson joined him. Throw in the loss of backup center Kevon Looney and the defending champs suffered a 123-109 home loss to the Raptors. Kawhi led Toronto with 30 points and the remaining four starters all scored between 17 and 23 points, After combing for just 21 points in a Game 2 loss, Toronto guards Lowry and Green totaled 41 points, while nailing 11, three-pointers. PF Siakam and center Gasol added 35 points and 16 rebounds, after combining for 18 & 14 in that Game 2 loss. Steph Curry score a career playoff-high 47 points but while the Raptors shot 52.5 as a team, the Warriors connected on 39.6%. That's a recipe for losing by 14 points. Klay Thompson will return to the lineup for Golden State but Kevin Durant will again be sidelined Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points in the Game 3 win, his 13th 30-point outing of the postseason. Only SIX others in NBA history, Michael Jordan (four times), Kobe Bryant (two times), LeBron James (two times), Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson, have had 13 or more 30-point games in a single postseason. Leonard carrying a Toronto franchise that now stands just TWO wins away from its first NBA title. History is on Toronto's side, as the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 Finals has gone on to claim the championship on 31 of 38 occasions! Thompson wanted to play in Game 3 before reluctantly agreeing with the training staff's view that it was too risky in terms that a re-injury might sideline him for the rest of the series. Curry was a one-man show in Game 3, as he poured in 47 points for his sixth career playoff 40-point outing, as well as contributing eight rebounds and seven assists. With Thompson back, expect the trio of Curry, Thompson and Green to be at its best in this almost "must-win" situation. The Warriors are best-known for their offense but Golden St has played great defense for good parts of the team's run of three titles in the last four seasons. Toronto shot 50.6 percent in Game 1 and 52.4 percent in Game 3 but the Raptors were held to just 37.2 percent from the floor (including 28.9 percent on three-pointers), while putting up just 104 points in their Game 2 loss. That's the 'ticket' for Golden St in Game 4 and my 'bet.'. We are headed back to Toronto tied at 2-all, as the Warriors win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 8:07 ET. he Toronto Raptors own homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals but the Golden St Warriors entered the Finals as the favorite. After all, the Warriors have won THREE of the last four NBA titles. Game 1 was Toronto's first-ever NBA Finals appearance, while Golden State's was playing in the team's 23rd Finals game since since 2015. The Warriors had won 12 straight playoff Game 1s, while the Raptors took the court just 3-15 in playoff openers . However, Toronto shot 50.6 percent from the floor and got strong performances from starters Pascal Siakam (32-8-5) Kawhi Leonard (23-8-5) and Marc Gasol (20 & 7), plus Fred VanVleet added 15 points off the bench in a 118-109 Game 1 victory. Curry had 34 points (his SIXTH straight 30-plus effort) and Thompson added 21 but Golden St's other three starters combined for just 18 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Green accounted for 10 of those points (he had another triple-double at 10-10-10), but shot just 2 of 9. The Warriors are still missing Kevin Durant (calf) and swingman Andre Iguodala (calf) is banged up. DeMarcus Cousins (quad) played for the first time since the first round in Game 1 but managed three points in eight minutes off the bench. His status is unclear. Siakam scored a postseason career-high in points on 14-of-17 shooting in Game 1, as KD's defense may have been missed more than his offense.That said, can Siakam possibly play that well again? How about Gasol or VanVleet? Leonard was solid in Game 1 but there remain 'whispers' that he's less than 100 percent, physically. Looking at Game 2, the Warriors are not in panic mode following the early loss. "The experience helps," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "Winning multiple championships helps because you have seen it all. There's also just the knowledge that you've been here before. You've been down. We have been up 3-1 and lost a series. We have been down 3-1 and won a series. Everything in between. So, nothing is going to catch these guys off guard, and they are very accustomed to the rhythm and tone of a seven-game series and how long it takes, how many twists and turns there are." My bet says the champs rise to the challenge and head back to Oakland tied at one-all. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |