Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-02-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -3 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* "Battle of Losers" is on the OKC Thunder. The New Orleans Pelicans remain without No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson and starting center Derrick Favors (8.7 & 6.3) has missed the last two games with a knee injury (doubtful for this one). However, the Pelicans won their first game of the season (opened 0-4) of the season on Thursday with a complete effort that included the return of guard Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans will try to make it two in a row and earn their first victory on the road when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. The Thunder also check in at 1-4, withe their lone victory coming 120-92 over Golden St back on Oct 27. A.D. wanted out of New Orleans and the Pelicans traded him to the Lakers. Brandon Ingram was one of the key players New Orleans received in that deal and he's averaging 26.8 PPG while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. Hart (13.8 & 6.2) and Ball (12.4-4.4-7.4) also came from the Lakers but the Pelicans are really happy to have Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7 LY) back in the lineup, after missing two games. He scored points and went 5-of-9 from three-point range in Thursday's win plus helped solidify a defense that allowed an average of 130 points in his two-game absence. Jahlil Okafor started in place of Favors on Thursday and scored a team-high 26 points on 8-of-13 from the floor. Oklahoma City has failed to reach 100 points in three of its first five contests and was 4-of-27 from beyond the arc in Wednesday's 102-99 loss to Portland. "We got to the free-throw line quite a bit, which kept it close, but the 3-point line probably was the difference, and we just did not shoot it certainly as well as they did or as timely as they did," Thunder head coach Billy Donovan told reporters The Thunder underwent considerable offseason changes, with former MVP Russell Westbrook getting dealt to Houston in a trade that brought in 15-year veteran PG Chris Paul plus All-Star Paul George was sent to the Clippers in a deal that brought in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari. Here's the deal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.6-7.0-3.2) and Danilo Gallinari (18.4 & 5.0) are the team's top-two scorers. PGs Paul (14.8-4.2-3.6) and Dennis Schroder (14.6-5.4-4.4) are also contributing nicely. Center Steven Adams (6.0 & 11.8) left-knee injury opened a starting spot for Nerlens Noel in the last contest and he played his best game of the season with 15 points and 14 rebounds. The Pelicans played "over their heads" vs Denver and the Thunder could really use a win over a VERY beatable foe.The home team took each of the four meetings last season and I see no reason for that to change here, even with two "new-look" squads. Also, "the price is right!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 7:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks 'jumped' all over the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday, taking a 58-42 lead at the half. However, Milwaukee got rolled in the second half, as the Celtics outscored them 74-47 in a 116-105 win. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 48 points on 18-of-28 shooting for Milwaukee but their teammates combined to shoot 37 percent and almost nobody could make a stop when it counted. The 2-2 Bucks continue a stretch in which they'll play NINE of 11 games away from home by taking on the Magic tonight in Orlando. The 2-2 Magic boast the top scoring defense in the Eastern Conference (93.8 PPG ranks 2nd in the NBA) but on the offensive end, have yet to score 100 points in a game. Orlando ranks 30th (last) in both scoring (95.8 PPG) and in FG percentage (39.5). Antetokounmpo, last year's MVP, is doing his usual thing averaging 23.8-13.5-8.0. Middleton is averaging 24 points over his last three games (he's 19-for-29 from the floor in the last two) and checks in averaging 20.8 & 6.5 through four games. The rest of the Bucks 'fell down' in Wednesday's loss at Boston but that's atypical. Bledsoe, Lopez and Matthews join Antetokounmpo and Middleton in the starting lineup and ALL average in double digits. Guard Hill (11.-3.8-4.8) plus swingmen Korver (9.3) and Connaughton (8.3) and PF Ilysova (8.5 & 7.3) come off the bench and ALL shoot better than 42.9% from three-point range (Korver leads with 50.0 percent). Milwaukee is averaging 119.2 PPG (4th) but is allowing 117.5 PPG (23rd). Orlando starts three guards in Fournier (17.8), Fultz (11.0) and Augustin (9.5 & 4.3 APG) with center Vicevic (15.8 & 11.3) and PF Gordon (9.0 & 6.3). Vucevic struggled to find his shooting touch through the first three games (hit 'rock bottom' at Toronto on Monday in going 1-for-13 from the floor) but scored 21 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in Wednesday's 95-83 victory over the Knicks. Orlando has to be at least slightly concerned over Gordon's slow start (see above), as he had averaged 17.6 & 7.9 and 16.0 & 7.4 the last two seasons. There is NOTHING wrong with Milwaukee's offense but its D is allowing 8.2 PPG more than it did last season, so while Milwaukee led all NBA teams in point-differential last season at plus-8.8, that figure sits at just plus-1.8 through four games of this season. Milwaukee had no success playing in Orlando from 2005 through 2015 but this Milwaukee team hardly resembles those past teams. The Bucks are off an embarrassing loss to the Celtics and will return home Sunday to host the defending champion Raptors on Sunday. Giannis and Co. were 17-4 ATS last season coming off a SU loss and the Bucks blew out Cleveland 129-112 in their first chance in that situation this year (Milwaukee had lost two nights earlier to Miami). Doing the math, that 18-4 ATS record translates to an 82% winning situation. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Ut Jazz at 10:05 ET. Paul George is still sidelined for the Clippers but Kawhi Leonard has opened the season averaging 27.0 PPG (on 51.9% shooting), while adding 6.5 RPG and 7.5 APG. He's had two, 30-point efforts in LA's 3-1 start, including scoring 30 points (seven rebounds and six assists) in Monday's 111-96 home victory over the Charlotte Hornets. The Clippers are the NBA's 3rd-highest scoring team (121.5 PPG) and will visit Utah Jazz, who are allowing an average of 91.5 PGG (best in the NBA), after squeaking out a 96-95 road win over the Phoenix Suns on Monday to move to 3-1, as well. Until George returns, the Clippers best players (behind Leonard) are guard Williams (22.2 & 5.2 APG) and forward Harrell (20.5 & 6.8), who both come off the bench. Williams is a three-time Sixth Man of the Year and has rattled off FOUR straight 20-point efforts . Utah center Rudy Gobert (9.0 & 10.3) established season bests of 15 points and 18 rebounds against the Suns and notably went 11-of-12 from the free-throw line. Guard Donovan Mitchell scored 25 points, his third 20-point outing of the season, and checks in averaging 24.0-5.-3.3. A HUGE addition for has been Bojan Bogdanovic. Mitchell and Bogdanovic have formed a nice 1-2 punch, with Bogdanovic averaging 23.7 PPG. Both players are shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and over 40 percent from three-point range. This is a classic offense vs defense matchup and yes the Jazz are averaging only 98.8 PPG (28th), but the Clippers have only held one opponent under 100 points (1-3 Charlotte), while allowing 112.5 PPG (20th). Quin Snyder has led the Jazz to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court and it's only a matter ot time until PG Conley breaks out of his early-season slump. The PG signed as a FA from Memphis, entering his first season in Salt Lake City averaging 20.5, 17.1 and 21.1 PPG the previous three seasons. The Jazz have won FIVE of the past seven meetings with the Clippers, including 111-105 in the lone matchup in Salt Lake City last season, behind 32 points from Mitchell. The Jazz are 57-25 SU at home the last two seasons (have opened 2-0 TY, outscoring opponents 106.5-to-91.5 PGG) and really have no 'number' to cover in this one. The Clippers allowed 122 points at Golden St in a blowout win and 130 at Phoenix in an eight-point loss. Jazz take this one, as defense tops offense! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-28-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs have opened 2-0, rallying to win a sloppy opener against the NY Knicks 120-111 on Wednesday but then delivered much better effort in knocking off Washington 124-122 on Saturday. However, both wins have been non-covers. San Antonio is home for a third straight game to open the new season and looks to start 3-0 for the THIRD time in four seasons when the team completes its homestand Monday against the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland lost its home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland has won back-to-back road games to move to 2-1 on the season, posting a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, before outlasting the Mavs 121-119 last night in Dallas. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. Lillard is a "special" player who I think is under-appreciated. Consider this. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list.Lillard has opened averaging 31.7-4.0-6.) and McCollum got untracked last night at Dallas, scoring 35 points. McCollum was 13-of-36 from the floor in averaging 15.5 points in the team's first two contests but made 13-of-26 shots in Sunday’s victory while adding six rebounds, four assists and a pair of steals (McCollum is averaging 22.0 after three games). Center Hassan Whiteside, who was acquired from Miami in the offseason, was held to six points against Dallas but hauled in 14 rebounds and has connected on 17 of his 21 field-goal attempts in the first three games (14.7 & 14.0 thru three games). San Antonio's 1-2 'punch' consists of PF LaMarcus Aldridge and guard DeMar DeRozan. Aldridge is off to a strong start with 49 points in the first two games and has pulled down 17 rebounds. He needs 14 more rebounds to become the 72nd player in NBA history with 8,000. DeRozan struggled against the Knicks (3-of-10 from the floor) but score 26 in Saturday’s win Fellow guards Murray (18.5) and Forbes (18.0) are also off to solid starts for the Spurs. Popovich has limited the minutes of Murray in the first two games after the 23-year-old missed all of last season due to knee surgery, making his 18.5 PPG average in more impressive, as his 5.0 APG. This is San Antonio's third straight home game, while Portland i on a four-game road trip and will be playing its THIRD game in four night in this one. The home team won all four meetings last season, while covering each one as well. Portland is still waiting for center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) to return from his leg fracture plus many of its role players from last year are elsewhere. Aminu is in Orlando, Kanter in Boston, Seth Curry in Dallas , Layman in Minnesota and Turner in Atlanta. Home team wins and covers again, tonight. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-28-19 | Pacers -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers bowed out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. These two met last Wednesday night in the season-opener for both and the Pistons upset the Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse 119-110 behind a monster game from Andre Drummond (32 & 23) The Pacers followed up their season-opening loss to Detroit by falling 110-99 at Cleveland on Saturday and are looking for more intensity on the defensive end.. "They pretty much did whatever they wanted," Indiana coach Nate McMillan told reporters after the latest setback. "We're not stopping anyone. They dominated the paint once again. More physical than we were throughout this game. ... More aggressive team. More scrappy team. We dug ourselves a hole we couldn't get out of." Indiana couldn't handle Drummond (see above) last Wednesday and struggled to defend the Cleveland frontcourt of Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson in Saturday's loss (the duo combined for points and rebounds). The bright spot for Indiana has been Malcolm Brogdon, who has averaged 26 points and 10.5 assists while recording a double-double in both games. Brogdon came from Milwaiukee but two other newcomers had show n promise as well, with TJ Warren averaging 11.0 PPG (former Sun) and Lamb has averaged 10.0 PPG (former Hornet). Detroit is still waiting for star forward Blake Griffin ( 24.5-7.5-5.4 ) to make his season debut (knee issue) and is also working around an injury to starting point guard Reggie Jackson. His back problem made him sit out the game vs Philly, after averaging just 5.0 PPG (on 36.4% shooting) in the first two games. Detroit's best player in the early going has been former MVP Derrick Rose (25.3, on 64.% shooting & 5.0 APG), but the team is reluctant to push the oft-injured star past 30 minutes and is committed to keeping him with the second unit (he's averaged 26.3 minutes). Indiana is 0-2 but I see them avenging last Wednesday's home loss, as the Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Griffin is expected out until sometime in November and PG Jackson is listed as doubtful for this one. Indiana has a strong inside duo with Sabonis averaging 20.5 & 9.0 and Turner 18.0 & 10.0 plus the team's bench HAS to better than its 7 of 23 effort (16 points) last Wednesday. Pacers get that first "W." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Dal Mavs at 7:05 ET. The Trail Blazers lost their home-opener 108-100 to the Nuggets on Wednesday, as Denver avenged a Game 7 home loss to Portland in last year's second round of the playoffs. However, Portland evened its record with a 122-112 victory at Sacramento on Friday, as Damian Lillard scored 35 points. As for Dallas, which won a modest 33 games last season, the Mavs have opened 2-0 with a 108-100 home win over the Wizards (Weds), followed by a 123-116 at New Orleans on Friday. Dallas is off to its best start since the 2004-05 team began 4-0 and will try to stay unbeaten tonight, when the Mavs host the Blazers. The Blazers are led by the backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard signed a four-year, $196 million extension and McCollum added three years and $100 million to his contract during the offseason as Portland went all-in with its two best players. The Blazers are waiting for center Jusuf Nurkic to recover from a leg fracture suffered last March but he is likely out until at least February. His absence makes Al-Farouq Aminu’s off-season departure hurt even more. However, the Blazers are thrilled with what they've seen out of center Hassan Whiteside in the first two games. He's averaged 19.0 & 14.0. Lillard has averaged 33.5 PPG on 53.7% shooting but McCollum has averaged only 15.5 PPG on 36.1% shooting. Dallas hasn't made the postseason since 2015-16 and last won a playoff series in its 2010-11 championship season but has ridden Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis to a 2-0 start. Doncic is averaging 29.5-9.5-6.5 and Porzingis 23.5 & 4.0. Doncic had 25 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists versus Sacramento, giving him nine career triple-doubles, the most by a player younger than 21 in NBA history. Delon Wright is hoping he's found a home in Dallas (this is his sixth season and THIRD team) and he added 20 points, seven rebounds and five steals in Friday's win. I'm not sure how many know just how good Lillard is but maybe this will help. There are only THREE players in NBA history to record at least 1,500 points and 400 assists in each of their first seven seasons. Oscar Robertson and LeBron James are two of them, with Lillard joining that exclusive list. However, even last year's Portland team which made the Western Conference Finals, had trouble with the a 33-win Dallas team. The clubs split the four-game series last season (home team was 4-0), with the contests decided by a total of just 21 points. What's more, Dallas has covered FIVE straight and 19 of the last 25 against Portland, going 10-3 ATS the last 13 at American Airlines Arena.Dallas moves to 3-0. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Warriors -1 v. Thunder | Top | 92-120 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET. A Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder matchup no longer features the same allure, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook out of the picture. Rather, it's a matchup of two teams searching for their 2019-20 'identities.' Golden St lost Durant to free agency and Klay Thompson to injury (he's recovery from knee surgery). Golden State also said goodbye to key veterans Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala from a team that made FIVE straight NBA Finals appearances (three wins). OKC lost Durant via free agency to Golden St after the 2015-16 season and this past off-season, traded away Russell Westbrook plus Paul George left via free agency for the Clippers, after a two-season stay with the Thunder. The Warriors hardly looked like a contender in their season-opener against the Clippers on Thursday, as they were run off their home floor by LA in a 141-122 loss. The Clippers were the team that shot 'lights out' from beyond the arc (18 of 32), while the Warriors shot just 39.4 percent a s team. Curry has 23 points but made just 2-of-11 from three-point range and committed eight turnovers in 30 minutes. "This is not a one-off, this is the reality," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters after the loss. "There's going to be nights like this this year. You've got to play through it, you've got to keep fighting and keep getting better. That's the plan." Draymond Green said it better, telling reporters, "We (expletive) sucked! And we gotta get better. I'm not a coach, so I'm not about to go watch a film and say, 'Oh, well we can build on this.' I really don't give a damn about what we can build on. We sucked tonight, and we gotta get better overall. And that's just what it is." Chris Paul came to OKC in the Westbrook deal but he's averaged only 14.0-5.-3.5 in OKC's first two games, while shooting 41.7 percent. The lone bright spot offensively for Oklahoma City in the first two games has been guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who came over in the trade that sent Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers. He is getting a chance at a larger role and he's averaged 27.0 PPG on 50.0% shooting, including 45.5% on threes. However, OKC has opened with a road loss at Utah (100-95) and a 97-85 home setback against the Washington Wizards on Friday. I've often said that Paul is the NBA's most overrated superstar, as he's NEVER led his team to even a SINGLE Conference Final (some leader: He was held to six points and committed five turnovers in Friday's home-opener). Sure, the Warriors are down but I'm not ready to cont them out. The Warriors will be glad to see that Paul George and Russell Westbrook have moved elsewhere plus it's VERY possible OKC may just be "peeking ahead" to Monday's game in Houston, where former Thunder stars Harden and Westbrook now 'live.' Golden St bounces back in a big way! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | Top | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The reigning NBA champion Toronto Raptors were lucky to escape on "Ring Night' (Tuesday), as they needed OT to put away the New Orleans Pelicans, 130-122 ('miracle' cover). However, Friday night's game at Boston against the Celtics had nothing to do with good or bad luck, as the Raptors coughed up a seven-point lead in the final 10 minutes of a 112-106 setback. The Raptors are scheduled to play 14 sets of back-to-back games this season, slightly above the league average of 12.4, and the first of those 14 comes tonight in Chicago. The Bulls won just 22 games in 2018-19 but has come within a 'whisker' of opening 2-0 this season. The Bulls dropped a 126-125 decision at Charlotte on Wednesday, before winning 110-102 at Memphis last night. Both teams played last night but for Chicago, it is the team's home opener. Pascal Siakam has been outstanding in the first two games of the post-Kawhi Leonard era for Toronto, totaling 67 points and 26 rebounds while going 7-for-12 from three-point range. Veteran PG Kyle Lowry has stepped up without Leonard as well, averaging 25.5 points and 6.5 assists in the first two games of the season. Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka has scored 13 points off the bench in each of the first two games. Toronto head coach Nick Nurse will need to develop a deeper rotation (especially in back-to-backs like this), as only eight Raptors logged time in Tuesday's season-opening victory against New Orleans and just nine did so during a 112-106 road loss to the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Zach LaVine scored a modest 16 points in the season opener but was 13-for-23 from the floor in Friday’s victory (37 points) and grabbed six rebounds, as Chicago outscored Memphis 63-42 in the second half. Power forward Lauri Markkanen recorded 35 points and 17 rebounds in the season-opener but then missing nine of his 10 FG attempts (scored just nine points) plus turned over the ball five times against the Grizzlies. How about some consistency, guys? In contrast, rookie guard Coby White has been impressive in his first two NBA contests, scoring 17 points in the opener and coming back with 25 while adding six assists in the win over the Grizzlies (he scored 21 points in Chicago's big second half). Toronto swept Chicago 4-0 last season (average MOV was 19.2 points!) and note that Kawhi played in just two of them. Obviously, Kawhi was the key to Toronto's title last season but while the Raptors were 41-19 in the regular season in his 60 appearances, they were also 17-5 when he was in “load management” mode. Let's also not forget that Toronto also still has SIX of its seven major contributors back (only Green left with Kawhi) and the Raptors have 'owned' Chicago, having won NINE in a row over the Bulls. Let's also remember that Chicago was a 'money-burning' 14-27 ATS at home last season. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The Jazz are playing in the 'loaded' Western Conference but Quin Snyder has led the team to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Reports are that the Jazz have signed him to a long-term contract extension and it's well-deserving. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court. The Jazz opened the season with an unimpressive 100-95 victory over the now-depleted OKC Thunder and tonight will visit Staples Center to take on the Lakers. The Lakers were outclassed by the Clippers on Tuesday night (many teams will be this season), losing 112-102. Utah's star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell scored 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting and collected a career-best 12 rebounds in Wednesday's win. Mitchell became the fourth different player in Utah history to have at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in a season opener, joining Hall of Famers Karl Malone (four times) and Adrian Dantley ,as well as Carlos Boozer. However, the team's new PG, Mike Conley, suffered through a horrific 1-of-16 shooting performance while scoring five points in his team debut. Some good news was that Bojan Bogdanovic, another key off-season addition, scored 16 points in 24 minutes, despite missing part of the game after twisting his left ankle. The Lakers jumped out to a 13-2 lead over the Clippers on Tuesday night but were quickly caught. However, a 15-0 run in the third quarter put the Lakers ahead but they folded down the stretch, getting outscored 27-17 in the 4th quarter. Davis had 25 points and 10 rebounds in his LA debut, while LBJ added 18 points, nine rebounds and eight assists (shot just 7 of 19). The surprising star was guard Danny Green, who has 28 points on 10-14 shooting (including 7 of 9 on threes). There's been a lot of hype with A.D. joining LBJ in LA but it's fair to say the jury is still out on the Lakers (Kuzma returning will give us a better idea). That said, the Jazz were a 50-win team last season, while the Lakers won just 37 games. Still, the Lakers beat the Jazz in both games played at Staples, one with LBJ and one without. The Lakers have to be a little bit 'pissed' at losing Tuesday's game vs the Clippers (and Kawhi), so I think the Jazz are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the 2018-19 season by 'aying an egg' at Philly on Wednesday, losing 107-93. All five Philly starters scored in double digits, while the Celtics shot 36.7% as a team (including 26.9% on threes), with newcomer Kemba Walker scoring 12 points on 4-of-18 shooting. The Raptors began their title defense with a 130-122 overtime win against New Orleans on Tuesday at home. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet scored 34 points apiece as Toronto had a successful first step in its post-Kawhi Leonard era. However, the Raptors never came close to putting away the Pelicans (playing with Zion and MANY new players). VanVleet started just 28 games during Toronto's title run after coming off the bench exclusively in his first two seasons but he figures to be a catalyst for the starting five and showed his readiness in the opener by shooting 12-for-18 from the floor and dishing out a team-high seven assists (34 points were a career-high). Siakam's effort was no surprise, as he was the NBA's Most Improved Player in the regular season and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. Toronto played with a short bench on Tuesday, as just eight players got "PT." The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). However, Walker 'flopped' in his Boston debut (see above) and while Jayson Tatum scored 21, he was only 8-of-22 from the floor, including 4-of-14 inside the arc. The bright spot in the opener was the play of forward Gordon Hayward. He averaged just 11.5 PPG in primarily coming off the bench in 2018-19, his first season back from a devastating leg injury sustained during his first game as a Celtic in 2017. However, back in the starting rotation, Hayward scored 25 on Wednesday to pace the team, ahead of Tatum's 21. Boston couldn’t handle Phiily's frontcourt of Embiid-Horford and Harris plus Simmons added a line of 24-8-9. However, expect a bounce-back here at the TD Garden. The Raptors were VERY lucky to cover on "Ring Night," despite a career-high from VanVleet and a monster game from Siakam. The Raptors can't count on similar efforts here, as the Celtics make their home debut. Conversely, look for Walker to put his Wednesday effort behind him in front of his new home crowd. Boston owns FIVE straight home wins over Toronto, going 4-1 ATS. This is Boston's night! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Golden St Warriors have reached the NBA Finals in each of the last five seasons, winning the title three times. However, for the first time since the 2014-15 Warriors won the title, Golden State will enter a regular season without being the favorites in the Western Conference. The Warriors lost Kevin Durant to free agency after falling to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals last spring and are also expected to spend most (all?) of season without All-Star guard Klay Thompson. Also, a key contributor to those championship teams, Andre Iquodala, is playing in Memphis. The Warriors played three times at their new San Francisco-based home in the preseason but tonight's contest against the LA Clippers will be the first regular season game played at Chase Center. The Clippers remade the top of their roster with the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the off-season, although George is not ready to play, as he continues to rehab from shoulder surgery. Without George, the Clippers relied on Leonard and their talented bench to beat the Lakers 112-102 in their season-opener Tuesday night. Kawhi had 30 points (only starter in double digits) and each of the four reserves used scored in double figures, totaling 60 points. Veteran sixth man Lou Williams led the "Bench Brigade" with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while Harrell added 17 (he averaged 16.6 & 6.5 in 26 minutes LY). The Clippers withstood an opening 13-2 run by the Lakers and later a 15-0 run, by holding the Lakers to 17 points in the final quarter of the 10-point win. As noted above, Durant and Iquodala have moved on and Thompson is sidelined. However, head coach Steve Kerr has new additions D'Angelo Russell (formerly with Brooklyn), Glenn Robinson III (Detroit Pistons) and Marquese Chriss (Cleveland Cavaliers). Of course, Curry is the leader and as Kerr stated, "It's the perfect time physically and mentally where everything's come together," Kerr old reporters of Curry during training camp. "He's in his prime age-wise, strength and conditioning-wise and defensively he's seen everything that's come his way. Teams have played him every possible way that you could think of, and he's had years now to work on counters. So, he's kind of in his sweet spot right now, and he has been the last couple years. And hopefully that continues for the next few years. But he's an amazing player." Then there is the ever-aggressive Draymond Green, who is one of the few defenders that has the capability to slow down Kawhi. Clippers are off the 'high' of beating the Lakers on Tuesday, while for the first time since 2/20/14, the Warriors are a home dog. They beat the Rockets 102-99 (OT) in that one at plus-1.5. No OT needed here, as the Warriors grab the win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Phi 76ers at 7:35 ET. Philadelphia watched Kawhi Leonard's shot bounce multiple times off the rim and then through the basket to eliminate them in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals in May. The Sixers then had to regroup and rebuild their roster, after losing Jimmy Butlerto the Heat and JJ Redick to the Pelicans. Philly got guard Josh Richardson from Miami in the Butler deal but the team's key acquisition was getting Al Horford to leave key rival Boston and sign with the 76ers. That duo joins All-Star center Joel Embiid and all-around standout Ben Simmons. The Celtics not only lost Horford but also lost Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn. The good news is that Boston added Kemba Walker from Charlotte, who averaged a career-high 25.6 PPG with the Hornets last season. The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). Embiid ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring (27.5), second in rebounding (13.6) and sixth in blocks (1.9) while playing a career-high 64 games last season. He'll anchor the mammoth front line with Horford and 6-9 Tobias Harris, who averaged a career-high 20 points in 2018-19. The 6-10 Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) was one of three players in the league to record at least 10 triple-doubles. Also, don't dismiss the addition of Josh Richardson, who will replace J.J. Redick. He averaged a career-high 16.6 PPG with Miami last season. Boston has had Philly’s number the past couple of years and won another three of four last season (7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings) bu t 'Sixer-killer' Kyrie Irving has moved on to Brooklyn, while Al Horford is now in a Philadelphia uniform. His versatility and ability to spell Joel Embiid should be big for Philly this coming season. I expect the 76ers to make a statement with a 'comfortable' win (meaning cover) against their recent nemesis. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Wolves v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season *Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). Irving will make his regular-season debut for the Nets on Wednesday against the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota made its first playoff appearance in 14 years in 2017-18 by going 47-35 but the Timberwolves took a step back in 2018-19, falling to 36-46. In contrast, the Nets went 42-20 last season, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. The T-wolves revolve around star centers Karl-Anthony Towns, who averaged 24.4 PPG and a career-high 12.4 RPG last season. Minnesota struck out in its pursuit of any big name acquisitions this off-season, but it filled some holes around Towns with the additions of forwards Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman. I hardly see that as being enough. A healthy Jeff Teague will help but while Andrew Wiggins averaged 18.1 PPG last season, he shot a career-low 41.2 percent from the floor (has he proved worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick of the 2014 draft?). Irving will join fellow guards Spencer Dinwiddie (16.8 & 4.6 APG) and Caris LeVert (13.7). Throw in Joe Harris (13.7), who led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and the Nets own a talented backcourt. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and given a two-year extension worth $29 million this week. Center Jarrett Allen took a big step in his second season, averaging 10.9 & 8.4 while shooting 59 percent from the floor (tied for seventh in the NBA). Obviously, the Nets become a lot more interesting whenever Kevin Durant suits up, but look at what head coach Kenny Atkinson did last season. The Nets were just 8-18 through Dec 5, before winning 19 of 24 games to reach 27-23 through Jan 25. The Nets finished 42-40 and I expect them to be better this season. As for the T-wolves, NOT so much. Minnesota was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season (allowed 114.0 PPG) and went a pathetic 11-30 SU on the road. Kyrie wins his Brooklyn debut, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers and bowing out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. The Detroit Pistons have a new head coach in Dwane Casey but he's hardly new to the NBA, as he won the 2017-18 Coach of the Year award with the Toronto Raptors. Six-time All-Star Blake Griffin will miss the start of the season due to hamstring and knee soreness. It's likely he will miss several games, with the team saying he will be reevaluated in the first week of November. PG Jackson and newly forward Markieff Morris are both listed day-to-day with nagging injuries. Detroit also added former MVP Derrick Rose but we all know his injury history. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down witha season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team and has raised his activity level to five-on-five scrimmages but there is still no timetable for his retur. His absence will hurt a little less due to a pair of shrewd off-season additions, Malcolm Brogdon (Milwaukee), Jeremy Lamb (Charlotte) and TJ Warren. Brogdon has averaged 12.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting on threes in his three seasons with Milwaukee, Lamb averaged a career-high 15.3 PPG with Charlotte last season and Warren has posted averages of 19.6 and 18.0 PPG the last two years with Phoenix. The Pacers also own an excellent interior duo of center Myles Turner (13.3 & 7.2 plus an NBA-best 2.7 blocked shots per game) and forward Domantas Sabonis, who made considerable career strides in 2018-19.He averaged 14.1 & 9.3 rebounds (he just signed a four-year, $77 million extension on Monday). The Pacers are a solid team (were 32-15 before Oladipo went down) and have made some excellent off-season moves. Griffin has been a career underachiever who always seems to get injured (no different to start this season). The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Season-Opening Tip-Off is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors are the defending NBA champions and help tip-off the 2019/20 NBA season by hosting the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the game has lost some luster, as not only is Kawhi Leonard now a Clipper but the No. 1 pick of the 2019 NBA Draft, Zion Williamson, is expected to be sidelined for the first month of the season. Of course, A.D. was traded by the Pelicans to the Lakers plusJulius Randle (who averaged a career-high 21.4 PPG with the Pelicans last season) signed with the Knicks. TNT knew about the trades/moves but can't too happy at Zion Williamson’s preseason knee injury. New Orleans will have FOUR new starters once Williamson returns, with PG Lonzo Ball and SF Brandon Ingram joining the team in the deal for Davis and center Derrick Favors coming over via trade from the Utah Jazz. The lone holdover is guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7), He's the best player in a crowded backcourt rotation that includes newcomers Josh Hart and JJ Redick along with holdovers Frank Jackson and E'Twaun Moore and rookie Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Head coach Alvin Gentry will have a heard time finding time for everyone and naturally, he can't wait for Zion to return. "It's just a situation where some nights, guys just aren't going to play," Gentry told reporters. "For us to be a really good team, you are going to have to accept that, with the understanding some nights the other guys are going to play. There's just no getting around it. We do have a lot of players who are very similar skill-wise who are multiple position guys." Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) is also in LA with Kawhi, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news is that head coach Nick Nurse has a familiar cast still around. Siakam (was the NBA's Most Improved Player and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry has been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without. He'll be asked to score more with Kawhi gone but don't forget that he is also a former Defensive Player of the Year. Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believe Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). The Pelicans are still "finding their way," while the Raptors will be out to prove that they can win without Kawhi. Raising the banner and handing out rings is typically a distraction but in this case I expect "We The North" to provide an electric atmosphere for tonight's contest. Toronto was a dominating 32-9 SU at home last season and has won SEVEN of its last eight meetings with New Orleans, which is now with A.D. & Randle, plus will have to wait awhile before Zion is ready. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -2.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. The Raptors were minutes away from securing Canada's first-ever NBA title Monday in Game 5 but three PERFECT three-pointers (talk about "nothing but net!"), two from Klay Thompson and one by Steph Curry, provided Golden St with a 9-2 finishing run to give the Warriors a 106-105 victory. It marked the first one-point Finals margin since 2007 and the Warriors became just the SIXTH team in NBA history to win an elimination game on the road. It's now Game 6 in Oakland but the Warriors still face this daunting NBA 'footnote.' Of the 34 teams that have led a Finals 3-1 like Toronto, 33 have gone on to win the championship. The only exception being the Warriors in 2016, when the Cavaliers rallied (with help of Draymond Green) to win in seven games. Kawhi Leonard scored 26 points in Game 5, including 10 straight in the late fourth quarter, allowing Toronto to open a 103-97 lead, that the Raptors couldn't hold. However, he did shoot only 9-of-24 from the floor, including 2 of 7 on threes. Starting guards Lowry and Green combined to shoot 1 of 10 from three-point range. KD returned in Game 5 for Golden St and made all three 3-point attempts, scoring 11 points in 12 minutes of play. However, he ruptured his Achilles tendon. Curry scored 31 and Thompson 26 for the Warriors plus center DeMarcus Cousins was a HUGE factor. He was going to receive diminished minutes in Game 5 but Durant's injury led to more court time and he turned out to be a key contributor, scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds in 20 minutes. The home team is just 1-4 SU & ATS in the Finals but i just CAN'T pass up the team which has won THREE of the last four NBA titles in the its FINAL game at Oracle Arena (Warriors will move to the Chase Center in San Francisco next season). The game may come down to this simple stat. The team which shoots better from three-point range will win. The Raptors have outscored the Warriors 120-96 from beyond the arc in their three wins, while Warriors own a 99-57 advantage in points from 'long-range' in their two victories. With or without KD, I never thought we'd see the Warriors this small of a favorite in a home playoff game, no less a "must-win" one in the franchise's final home game on this court. See you Sunday in Toronto! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. KD remained out in Game 3 for the Warriors and Klay Thompson joined him. Throw in the loss of backup center Kevon Looney and the defending champs suffered a 123-109 home loss to the Raptors. Kawhi led Toronto with 30 points and the remaining four starters all scored between 17 and 23 points, After combing for just 21 points in a Game 2 loss, Toronto guards Lowry and Green totaled 41 points, while nailing 11, three-pointers. PF Siakam and center Gasol added 35 points and 16 rebounds, after combining for 18 & 14 in that Game 2 loss. Steph Curry score a career playoff-high 47 points but while the Raptors shot 52.5 as a team, the Warriors connected on 39.6%. That's a recipe for losing by 14 points. Klay Thompson will return to the lineup for Golden State but Kevin Durant will again be sidelined Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points in the Game 3 win, his 13th 30-point outing of the postseason. Only SIX others in NBA history, Michael Jordan (four times), Kobe Bryant (two times), LeBron James (two times), Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson, have had 13 or more 30-point games in a single postseason. Leonard carrying a Toronto franchise that now stands just TWO wins away from its first NBA title. History is on Toronto's side, as the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 Finals has gone on to claim the championship on 31 of 38 occasions! Thompson wanted to play in Game 3 before reluctantly agreeing with the training staff's view that it was too risky in terms that a re-injury might sideline him for the rest of the series. Curry was a one-man show in Game 3, as he poured in 47 points for his sixth career playoff 40-point outing, as well as contributing eight rebounds and seven assists. With Thompson back, expect the trio of Curry, Thompson and Green to be at its best in this almost "must-win" situation. The Warriors are best-known for their offense but Golden St has played great defense for good parts of the team's run of three titles in the last four seasons. Toronto shot 50.6 percent in Game 1 and 52.4 percent in Game 3 but the Raptors were held to just 37.2 percent from the floor (including 28.9 percent on three-pointers), while putting up just 104 points in their Game 2 loss. That's the 'ticket' for Golden St in Game 4 and my 'bet.'. We are headed back to Toronto tied at 2-all, as the Warriors win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 8:07 ET. he Toronto Raptors own homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals but the Golden St Warriors entered the Finals as the favorite. After all, the Warriors have won THREE of the last four NBA titles. Game 1 was Toronto's first-ever NBA Finals appearance, while Golden State's was playing in the team's 23rd Finals game since since 2015. The Warriors had won 12 straight playoff Game 1s, while the Raptors took the court just 3-15 in playoff openers . However, Toronto shot 50.6 percent from the floor and got strong performances from starters Pascal Siakam (32-8-5) Kawhi Leonard (23-8-5) and Marc Gasol (20 & 7), plus Fred VanVleet added 15 points off the bench in a 118-109 Game 1 victory. Curry had 34 points (his SIXTH straight 30-plus effort) and Thompson added 21 but Golden St's other three starters combined for just 18 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Green accounted for 10 of those points (he had another triple-double at 10-10-10), but shot just 2 of 9. The Warriors are still missing Kevin Durant (calf) and swingman Andre Iguodala (calf) is banged up. DeMarcus Cousins (quad) played for the first time since the first round in Game 1 but managed three points in eight minutes off the bench. His status is unclear. Siakam scored a postseason career-high in points on 14-of-17 shooting in Game 1, as KD's defense may have been missed more than his offense.That said, can Siakam possibly play that well again? How about Gasol or VanVleet? Leonard was solid in Game 1 but there remain 'whispers' that he's less than 100 percent, physically. Looking at Game 2, the Warriors are not in panic mode following the early loss. "The experience helps," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "Winning multiple championships helps because you have seen it all. There's also just the knowledge that you've been here before. You've been down. We have been up 3-1 and lost a series. We have been down 3-1 and won a series. Everything in between. So, nothing is going to catch these guys off guard, and they are very accustomed to the rhythm and tone of a seven-game series and how long it takes, how many twists and turns there are." My bet says the champs rise to the challenge and head back to Oakland tied at one-all. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The NBA Finals open Thursday and naturally, no one is surprised the Warriors are playing for their THIRD straight championship and FOURTH in five year. However, the Toronto Raptors will take the court tonight to play a game in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. The Warriors will open the series without Kevin Durant, who has been ruled out of Game 1 with a calf injury. Center DeMarcus Cousins (quadriceps) could play in the opening contest. "His next step is individual court work," Golden State coach Steve Kerr said of Durant at Wednesday's media availability. "That will be the next priority. Over the next couple of days, hopefully, he can ramp up. We have to see him practice before he can play a game. He hasn't practiced yet." The Raptors have ridden Kawhi Leonard (31.2 & 8.8) to the Finals and Toronto has homecourt advantage in the series due to a better regular-season record than Golden State. The Raptors won both regular-season meetings, 131-128 in overtime at Toronto on Nov 29 and 113-93 on Dec 12 in Oakland. Cousins suffered his injury on April 15 in Game 2 of the first-round series against the LA Clippers and he said Wednesday that he is ready to return. "I feel good," Cousins said. "My quad is coming along. It's healed for the most part."The bottom line is, do the Warriors even need Cousins (or Durant, for that matter)? Since KD went down in game 5 of the Houston series, Curry has been nearly unstoppable. He's averaged 35.8 PPG in the Warriors' last five games, never scoring less than 33 points or more than 37, in any game (talk about consistency). He capped that five-game run with a triple-double (37-13-11) in Golden St's Game 4 win over Portland (capping a 4-0 sweep). Draymond Green joined Curry in that contest with his own triple-double (18-14-11), marking the first time in NBA history that two teammates each delivered a triple-double in the same game. Green been a 'beats' since Game 6 of the LAC series, averaging 14.6-11.4-8.5 over an 11-game span, with eight double-doubles (including four triple-doubles). Throw in Klay Thompson (22.6 PPG since KD's been out) and the Warriors are just fine with or without KD or surely, Cousins. Leonard's performance in the 2019 playoffs has again having him being discussed as perhaps the best player in the NBA. That said, only Siakam (18.7 & 9.0) and Lowry (14.2-5.2-6.4) join him in double digits plus neither player as participated in an NBA Final. VanVleet comes in averaging 16.0 PPG over his last three games, connecting on 68% of his shots. Pause for a moment and note that even with this three-game outburst, VanVleet is averaging only 6.0 PPG on 35.9% shooting in Toronto's 18 playoff games. Yes, Leonard has led Toronto to where it has "never gone to before" but I won't overlook the team's 3-15 record in playoff openers (1-2 this postseason), especially against the champion Warriors. The Raptors have faced a series deficit in each round of the playoffs so far this year, so what changes here? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. Toronto had a great chance to win Game 1 of this series but the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-run for a 108-100 victory. Milwaukee then routed Toronto in Game 2, 125-103 to take a 2-0 lead in the series. At the point, the Bucks were 10-1 SU & ATS in the 2019 playoffs. Oh, how things have changed since then! The Raptors have won the past THREE contests, including a 105-99 road win on Thursday that enabled them to take a 3-2 series lead. Kawhi Leonard scored 35 points in Game 5 (his fourth 30-point outing of the series) and has provided Toronto with the big-time performances the club was looking for when it acquired him from the San Antonio Spurs.The Bucks were up by 14 points early in Game 5 but entered the 4th quarter leading by just three. Toronto opened an eight point lead in that final period but Milwaukee tied it at 93-all with 2:44 left. However, it was Toronto which made the plays down the stretch. Milwaukee won a league-best 60 games in the regular season and Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo (25.9-12.3-4.9 this postseason) was adamant that his team will still win the series. "We're not going to fold," Antetokounmpo said afterward. "Come on, man. Best team in the league, man. We're not going to fold. We're going to go in and give it everything we've got. We can't fold. We're going to come back to Milwaukee." Malcolm Brogdon made his first start of the postseason in Game 5 and had 18 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. PG Eric Bledsoe scored a series-best 20 but neither effort was good enough. "I'm not afraid of the moment," Leonard told reporters afterward. "This is what I work out for in the summer. I'm just trying to win. It's a matter of me being aggressive and don't shy away from anything." Leonard carried Toronto in teh Game 5 win, as Toronto's other four starters shot a combined 10 of 35 from the floor (28.6%). However, backup PG Fred VanVleet scored 21 points on seven 3-pointers in the Game 5 victory and is 10-for-12 from long range over the last two games, after being 2-for-11 over the first three games Milwaukee not only owned the NBA's best regular season record (60-22) but it also owned its best ATS mark, as well (47-34-1). That's a rare 'daily double. Expect Antetokounmpo to play 'HUGE,' Middleton to NOT go 2-of- 9 again plus I love the fact that Milwaukee's starting guards (see above) combined for 38 points. Can Kawhi really do it 'alone?' I'm with Giannis, this series is headed back to Milwaukee for a Game 7. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game 5 Tie-Breaker is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. Kawhi Leonard (31.8 PPG & 8.5 RPG) had carried Toronto's offense through the team's first two playoff series, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) were the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the first two rounds. As for Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, he led Milwaukee to an 8-1 SU & ATS start to the postseason, averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds. However, I predicted this series was NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Antetokounmpo's supporting class had been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looked ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. More notably, Milwaukee's bench was averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Milwaukee was "off' in Game 1 but outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-0 run to win AND cover, 108-100. In Game 2, it was all Milwaukee, as the Bucks won 125-103. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3 and despite Giannis and Middleton combining for just 21 points (on 8 of 32 shooting), the Bucks had chances to win, before falling in OT. Leonard was the star (36 points) for Toronto and Siakam added 25 & 11. The Bucks then followed with their worst game of the series in Game 4. The team's 2-0 lead has evaporated, after Toronto's 120-102 victory on Tuesday. Leonard, who had topped 30 points in each of the first three games of the series, had just 19 in Game 4 while often appearing to be hindered by a left leg injury. PG Kyle Lowry scored 25 points plus three bench players excelled. SF Powell had 19, PF Ibaka had 17 & 13 (his best game of the series) and PG Van Vleet had 13. The series is now tied at two-all, with tonight's Game 5 looming large.I don'r remotely trust the Raptors on the road. Yes, they were 2-0 in Orlando but is that a big deal? In five road games since (against Philly and Milwaukee), Toronto is 1-4 SU and ATS, with those four losses coming by an average of 15.5 PPG. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 6-1 SU & ATS at home during the playoffs, upping the team's home record this season to 39-9 SU, while averaging a whopping 119.1 points. Milwaukee's bench will bounce back (don't expect Toronto's reserves to come anywhere close to performing like they did in Game 4) and expect Giannis to be brilliant. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. Golden St was down 15 at the half in Game 2 but a 39-24 third quarter put them back in position to win it in the 4th. Fast-forward to Game 3 in Portland. The Blazers opened a 66-53 halftime lead but once again, the Warriors dominated in the third quarter, outscoring the Blazers 29-13, before pulling away in fourth en route to a 110-99 triumph.The Blazers WILL NOT come back and win four in a row but the question here is, can they win this Game 4? Draymond Green scored a postseason-high 20 points to go with 13 rebounds and 12 assists on Saturday (his third triple-double of the playoffs), setting the tone for a Warriors team that fell into an 18-point hole in the first half and was down 14 with 8:08 left in the third quarter. His ability to push the tempo and get the rest of his teammates to feed off his energy propelled the Warriors to a victory. That said, let's NOT forget Curry, who scored a team high 36 points, his fourth straight 30-plus effort since K.D. was lost to a calf injury. Portland didn't just fold in the third quarter, as they totaled just 33 points in the entire second half, after putting up 63 points in the first half. "Our offense fell apart," Portland coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "We missed some shots. Took some tough shots. Didn't move the ball as well. They were scoring, so we were taking it out of the net. Didn't get any transition. So, I said at the beginning of the series, to beat Golden State, you've got to be able to score. Scoring 33 in the second half is not going to do it." Damian Lillard has yet to get rolling offensively in the series (he's shooting 32.6 percent from the floor and has committed 14 turnovers in the first three games, plus he and McCollum have been totally outplayed by Curry and Thompson. in the series. Is this "All she wrote?" The Warriors are just one win shy of earning their FIFTH straight NBA Finals appearance, something that hasn't been done since the 1960s Boston Celtics. As to the team's back-to-back wins in Games 2 and 3, the Warriors have become the first team in NBA history to rally from at least a 13-point deficit in consecutive playoff wins. However, SF Andre Iguodala (lower leg) left Saturday's game and is the Warriors don't expect him to play here. As for K.D, word is he only plays if the Warriors are forced to a Game 7 (fat chance that happens). That said, I am not tasked to "look ahead," just focus on the here and now. Portland has shown it can play with Golden State in Games 2 and 3 but the team has NOT been able to "close he show." I've had the Blazers in Games 2 and 3 and will "go to the well" with them again, here. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4 to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-2 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-4 SU run on their home floor. Portland closed a three-point favorite in Game 3 but there has been a line 'swing' of right about a 'TD!". I'm 'barking' with the home dog! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 7:05 ET. The Bucks needed a 32-17 fourth quarter to win and cover Game 1 against the Raptors, including ending the game on a 10-0 run. I had the Bucks in that one and came right back with them in Game 2, saying that it was my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee was an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason at that point and after its Game 1 win, checked in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. I said "lay the points," again. The Bucks had their way with the Raptors in Game 2, jumping out to a 35-21 first quarter lead and a 64-39 advantage at the half. After trailing by as many as 28 points, Toronto made a push to draw to within 13 in the third quarter but the final was 125-103. Antetokounmpo finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds but Ersan Ilyasova (17 points), Malcolm Brogdon (14) and George Hill (13) combined to go 17-of-29 from the floor off the bench in Game 2, with each of the three logging more than 20 minutes. "We have a great group of coaches who trust us, and I think it's all about chemistry," Ilyasova told reporters. "When we go to locker room, even when we lose the game, everybody stays positive. It's just we're all about the next game. I think for us it's big time when we go to the playoffs." Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points in each of the first two games but in Game 2, Toronto's other four starters combined for just 33 points. Center Marc Gasol struggled to two points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 2 and placed the blame for the loss on himself. However, he was hardly alone. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry, who scored 30 points on 10-of-15 shooting in Game 1, slumped to 15 points on 4-of-13 in Game 2. "The ball," as they say, is Toronto's court. The Raptors were 32-9 during the regular season at home and have gone 5-2 in the playoffs. Toronto has been best-known for its underachieving postseason but the difference in this year's team is, Kawhi Leonard. He's averaging 31.7 PPG (on 52.7% shooting) and 8.5 RPG in the postseason. It's up to him to 'carry' the Raptors to a win. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Golden State Warriors have gone up 2-0 in their series with the Blazers, despite the absence of K.D. (Durant was averaging a NBA postseason-high of 34.2 PPG). The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "I thought they outplayed us for much of the night, the majority of the night, but we brought enough competitive fire in the second half to overcome their great play. We've been here before. I think our experience helped us. We've done this a few times, and yeah, we stole it for sure. They outplayed us." As for Portland, the Blazers head home with some confidence due to the way they played for most of Game 2. "You know, you hate to lose a game, but I think we showed that we can compete with them," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "It was a much better game than we played in Game 1. Now we've got to go get two at home, but it starts with Game 3. But yeah, we beat them in the regular season, and we did play a good game, much better game at both ends of the floor tonight. So, we've got to take that into Game 3." This series was billed as a battle between the NBA's two-best backcourt duos. After two games, Curry and Thompson have 'KO'd' Lillard and McCollum. The Warriors' dynamic duo has combined to average 56.5 PPG, while the Blazers' twosome is averaging just 40.5 PPG. Curry has averaged 35.3 PPG in the three games KD has missed, with Thompson chipping in 25.7. Since Game 6 of the LAC series, Draymond Green is averaging 13.7-10.7-7.9. Maybe the Warriors can "win it all," without KD? Lillard came into the series averaging 28.4 PPG in the 2019 playoffs and McCollum came in averaging 26.6. A return home HAS to help. Here's the bottom line. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4 to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-1 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-3 SU run on their home floor. "Home is where the heart is" (right?) and expect Lillard and McCollum to respond plus don't ignore the fact that Seth Curry matched his postseason high with 16 points off the bench in Game 2 and that Rodney Hood is averaging 14.5 points off the bench in the series. If not NOW, WHEN for Portland? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. The Eastern Conference finals features the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the series averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard averaged 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in his 12 playoff games, including setting a franchise record with nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history. Game 1 was was somewhat of a surprise, as the underdog Raptors led most of the way on Wednesday. However, the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 over the final 12 minutes, including 10-0 run in the final 3:31 of the contest for a 108-100 win and COVER! Talk about a 'miracle' ATS win for Milwaukee bettors. Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points but only two came in the final stanza (both on FTs), as he struggled through a 10-of-26 shooting performance. PG Lowry was great, scoring 30 points (his 2019 playoff-high), including 14 poinst in the 4th quarter. Incredibly, he was the only Toronto player to make a FG in the 4th quarter (5 of 7), as the other seven players went a combined 0-15. In fact, on the game, take away Lowry and Leonard and the remainder of the Raptors went 14 of 51 from the floor (27.4%). Giannis was not spectacular but he did have a double-double (24 & 14). The game's breakout star was center Brook Lopez, who scored 29 points (a career playoff-high) with 11 rebounds and four blocked shots. That's after averaging just 5.4 points and 4.2 rebounds in the five-game conference semifinals against the Boston Celtics. Another piece of good news for Milwaukee was that combo guard Malcolm Brogdon scored 15 points off the bench (in 27 minutes), after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston. He had missed the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. The Raptors HAVE to feel that they let Game 1 "get away," while the Bucks believe they can improve Friday night in Game 2, after shaking off their rust. Obviously, both teams can improve in Game 2. The Raptors shot 37 percent (34-for-92) overall, including 35.7 percent (15-for-42) from behind the arc. The Bucks shot 39.8 percent (37-for-93) from the floor and only 25 percent (11-for-44) from three-point territory. I had the 'lucky' Game 1 winner in Milwaukee and wrote prior to that game, that this series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench entered averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. In an "off game" for both teams, Milwaukee's bench outscored Toronto's, 22-12 (winning margin was eight points!). It's my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee is an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason (no other remaining team comes close to matching that) and after its Game 1 win, checks in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. Lay the poitst again, as this win comes with more 'breathing room!'
Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson totally out-played Portland's backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum in Game 1. Curry scored 36 points (made NINE three-pointers) and Thompson added 26. In contrast, Lillard had 19 points and McCollum 17. What's more, the Warriors shot 50.5% from the floor, including making 17 of 33 three-pointers. The Blazers made just 36.1% from the floor, including 7 of 28 on three-pointers. Curry took several uncontested three-point shots during his fourth 30-point effort of the postseason and Damian Lillard knows that something needs to change. "That was very poor execution defensively on our part," Lillard said. "Just having our bigs back that far; understanding the team we are playing against, they are not going to shoot midrange jumpers and try to attack the rim. If they see the opportunity to shoot a 3, they are going to tell you. They shoot it at a high clip. We've got to bring our guys up and run them off the line, and (Tuesday) they were setting solid screens and coming off shooting practice shots." Portland needs to shore its defense plus CAN'T commit another 21 turnovers. Kevin Durant is expected to miss Game 2 and after ranking 28th out of 30 teams in points off the bench during the regular season, the Warriors have gotten some much-needed help from its reserves in Game 6 vs Houston and in Game 1 vs the Blazers. Kevon Looney had 14 points and Shaun Livingston 11, as the Warriors dominated the Rockets 33-17 off the bench in that 118-113, series-clinching win. Then in Tuesday's Game 1, all eight Warriors backups who participated recording a positive plus/minus as Golden State's reserves outscored their Portland counterparts 36-28. However, will the Warriors be able to keep that up? The Warriors are just 19-28-1 ATS at home this season (including 3-4 in the playoffs) and remember won Game 4 at OKC plus Games 2 and 7 at Denver, which was the NBA's best home team this year. Head coach Terry Stotts is confident his team will shoot better and NOT turn the ball over as much. Lillard noted after Game 1 that Portland shot horribly, while Golden St shot "lights out," yet the Blazers trailed by just six points entering the fourth quarter. I agree. Take the points!
Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game 1 Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. The Eastern Conference finals comes down to the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Game 1 is Wednesday night and the series features tow of the NBA's best. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard is averaging 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in 12 playoff games, including a franchise record nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history. Leonard is carrying Toronto's offense, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) are the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the postseason. Regarding Lowry, he's been a HUGE underachiever in his postseason career and he's shooting just 41.5 percent from the floor (28.1% on threes), so far. In contrast, Antetokounmpo's supporting class has been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) have more than looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looks ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. Yes, Leonard makes Toronto a much more viable contender but can I really overlook the team's 3-14 record in playoff openers (1-1 this postseason)? This series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench is averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's is averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Milwaukee comes in 37-9 at home this year (including the playoffs, averaging 119.2 PPG. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
My NBA 10* 2nd Round ‘GAME OF YEAR’ is on the Den Nuggets at 3:30 ET. The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28). Their Game 5 home rout of the Blazers (124-98) put them ONE win away from the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 but the Blazers responded with a 119-108 home in Game 6 (Portland's 13th win in its last 14 home games), sending this series back to Denver for a Game 7. Portland's dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard (29.8-4.3-5.8 this postseason) and McCollum (24.5-5.5-3.6) were HUGE in Game 6, scoring 32 and 30 points, respectively. However, backup Rodney Hood erupted for 25 on 8-of-12 shooting, posting a career playoff-high. Hood is averaging 16 points on 60 percent shooting vs the Nuggets. PF Zach Collins chipped in 14 points in Game 6 and the Blazers have outscored Denver by 22 points in 113 minutes with Hood and Collins on the floor during the series (according to NBA.com). An issue for Portland issue has been center Enes Kanter, who is averaging just 6.0 PPG on 26.1 percent shooting over the last three games, after averaging 19.7 on 60 percent through the first three contests in the series. Denver's star center Nikola Jokic is having quite a first-ever postseason. He's averaging 24.8-13.0-8.9 with 11 double-doubles in 13 games (four, triple-doubles). He's averaging 26.4-14.4-8.8 assists against Portland in this series. PG Jamal Murray is averaging 21.6-4.2-4.7 in the playoffs, including 24.7 PPG vs Portland. Veteran PF Paul Millsap is playing as he did when he was in his prime vs Portland, averaging at 18.7 & 9.0. The Golden State Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals for the fifth straight year and await the winner of this Game 7. I've noted above the play of Hood and Collins off the bench for Portland but I've said all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Yes, Jokic is having a "breakout" postseason plus Murry and Millsap have been excellent in this series but note that NINE Denver players have gotten into all 13 games this postseason for the Nuggets. Jokic and Murray are topping 20 PPG, Millsap is averaging 15.0 and Harris is at 14.2. However, FIVE others are chipping in from 4.6 to 9.2 PPG. I expect Jokic to again lead the way (he's dominated Kanter lately) but I also expect Denver's depth to be a difference-maker. Also, Hood and Collins WON'T replicate their Game 6 heroics here for the Blazers. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning FIVE of seven at home in the postseason and the Nuggets are 31-6 in their last 37 home games. There have been 133 Game 7s in NBA history and home teams have won 105, or 79%. I'm NOT about to "take the points" with the Blazers, as in 48 home games this season (regular and postseason, combined), Denver has outscored its opponents 113.0-to-102.9 PPG. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 10:35 ET. The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28) and with Tuesday's 124-98 home rout of the Blazers, are ONE win away from the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 (Can you say 'Melo?). Star center Nikola Jokic continued his stellar series with 25 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5 and he is averaging 26.4 points, 14.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists against Portland. He's averaging 24.5-13.1-9.0 in his first-ever postseason with 10 double-doubles in 12 games (including four triple-doubles). Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard and McCollum came up woefully short in Game 5. Despite scoring 22 points, Lillard was just 9-of-21 shooting, including 2-of-9 from three-point range. As for McCollum, he had just a2 points, while making only 5 of 16 shots (31.3%). I've noted all season that Denver is arguably the league's deepest team and in back-to back impressive wins (116-112 at Portland in Game 4 and Game 5's home blowout), 13-year veteran power forward Paul Millsap has scored 21 and 24 points. He's been a difference-maker in the series, averaging 19.0 & 9.6, while recording three double-doubles. In contrast, Portland PF Al-Farouq Aminu managed just three points on 1-of-8 shooting in Game 5, after scoring a series-best 19 points in Game 4. As for center Enes Kanter, he is honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset and got dominated by Jokic, scoring just nine points on 2-for-9 shooting (he did have a team-high eight rebounds). We've got two must-wins," Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told reporters after Game 5. "Somebody was going to have a must-win after (Tuesday), and it's us. So we've got two must-wins ahead of us."That's pretty simple and I'm far from counting Portland out, here. Can Denver really beat them THREE in a row? After all, the Nuggets finished the regular season (from Dec 1 through its end) going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams. They were just 1-4 SU on the road in the postseason, prior to their Game 4 win. As for Portland, the Blazers had not lost a home game since March 7, 129-121 in OT to OKC, when its 12-game home winning streak was broken in Game 4. The Nuggets are headed back for a SECOND straight Game 7 at home. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -6 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Showdown (Part 3) is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Houston Rockets have the momentum in this series, having won Games 3 and 4 at home to knot this Western Conference semifinals series at 2-2. However, the Rockets will have to figure out a way to win a game in Oakland if they are to finally get the best of the Warriors in this series. The Houston/Golden St rivalry has turned into a best-of-three for the second straight year. Houston broke the 2-2 tie with a win in Game 5 at home in last year's Western finals but Golden State then swept the final two games to reach the NBA Finals, where the Warriors captured their second straight championship and third in four years (note: Chris Paul missed Games 6 & 7). Houston has made 66 three-pointers in the series, 26 more than the Warriors. James Harden has drained 18 three-pointers while averaging 35.8 points but two other Houston players have been key. Shooting guard Eric Gordon has made 16 three-pointers while averaging 23 points and power forward P.J. Tucker is averaging 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds over the past three games, while also harassing K.D. However, Kevin Durant is averaging 36 points in the series, with a high game of 46 and a low output of 29. However, Splash Brothers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have not held up their end. Curry is 12-of-46 (26.1%) from three-point range in the series and Thompson is just 8-of-26 (30.8%). Joining the above-mentioned trio in the starting lineup have been Green and Iquodola. Green is averaging 15.8-11.2-8.2 and Iquodala 13.6 & 5.2. Iguodala has played 29 or more minutes in all four games of the series. He played more than 29 minutes just seven times during the regular season. He's also started all four games alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Green, after never having joined that All-Star quartet in the starting lineup in any regular-season game during his Warriors career. Here's what happened down the stretch in the last two games at Houston. Houston was clinging to a one-point lead in Gamer 3 when Iguodala's three-pointer put Golden State up 112-110 with 45 seconds remaining. Harden made two free throws a few seconds after that to tie it and Durant missed a jump shot on the other end to give Houston a chance to win it in regulation. Chris Paul was in the lane when Klay Thompson forced a jump ball. Harden got the ball but didn't have time to get a shot off before the buzzer. Houston then won by five in OT (who will forget Curry's blown dunk shot?) In Game 4, the Rockets were up by nine before the Golden State scored the next seven points, capped by a three from Stephen Curry, to get within 110-108 with 19 seconds left. Harden made one of two free throws with 11.5 seconds left. Kevin Durant missed a three after that. But the Warriors got the rebound and Curry also missed a 3-point attempt before Golden State was forced to foul Chris Paul. "We got a couple of wide-open looks," Durant said. "They just didn't fall for us." Paul made one of two free throws with 2.9 seconds left to secure the four-point victory. However, Golden St knows it out-shot Houston 48.2 percent to 44.4 and out-rebounded the visitors 41.5 per game to 33.5 in the first two games of this series. We saw BOTH home teams (in similar 2-2 series) win in blowout fashion last night and after ca$hing two straight wins on the Rockets, I'm "all in" on the defending champs in this one. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks didn't panic after losing 112-90 at home to the Celtics in Game 1 of this series. The Bucks didn't need to make any drastic changes, they just needed to increase the aggressiveness and execution. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way, averaging 30.5 & 11.0 in Games 2 and 3, with Milwaukee shooting 47.4% as a team and scoring 123 points in both wins. Boston's star, PG Kyrie Irving, scored 26 points on 12-of-21 shooting in the Game 1 win but went a combined 12-of-40 (30.0%) from the floor in Games 2 and 3, including 3-of-13 from three-point range (23.1%). Antetokounmpo led the way in Game 3 with 32 points but it was the supporting cast that pushed Milwaukee over the top. Shooting guard Pat Connaughton scored 14 points and PG George Hill led the "Bench Mob" with 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting in 29 minutes. For Boston, after shooting 54.0% in its surprising Game 1 upset, the Celtics have made just 69 of 167 shots (41.3%) in Games 2 and 3. The Bucks' playoff win in Boston in Game 3 was rather noteworthy. It was the first playoff win in Boston for the Bucks since May 13, 1987. Yes, Milwaukee was just 0-5 in that span but FOUR of those losses came in an Eastern Conference first-round series last year, when the Celtics survived in a seven-game series (home team won all seven games). Getting back to Boston, its Game 3 home loss was just the Celtics' SECOND home playoff loss in 14 games the last two postseasons. If Boston head back to Milwaukee down 3-1, it would likely be "all she wrote." Expect Kyrie to shine and I'm backing Boston. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | 116-112 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Por Blazers at 7:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers battled each other in the longest postseason game since 1953 on Friday, with Portland coming out on top 140-137 in only the second four-overtime contest in postseason history. Now, some 41 hours after the end of that memorable contest, the teams will tip it off again in Game 4. "(The Blazers) have the same turnaround," Denver head coach Mike Malone said after Game 3. "You try to learn from the loss and get (the players) ready for battle. Both teams are exhausted. It's the same for them as it is for us. We will not use it as an excuse. We haven't used it all year long, and we won't use it now." Portland head coach Terry Stotts added this after his Blazers had finally put away the Nuggets to grab a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. "I have no idea what happened in the first half, the second half or the first three overtimes. I've never been involved in a game like that, regular season or playoffs." To set the record straight, Game 3 was a three-hour, 35-minute marathon that left players and coaches drained at the final buzzer. There were 24 lead changes and 18 ties. Denver center Nikola Jokic logged a game-high 65 minutes and finished with 33 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists for his third triple-double of the postseason. He led the Nuggets in scoring, rebounding and assists in the regular season and is doing so again in his "breakout" postseason (24.8-12.9-9.1). Jamal Murray added 34 points in 55 minutes for Denver in the loss while Gary Harris (13 points, 50 minutes) and Paul Millsap (17 points, 13 rebounds, 49 minutes) were also pushed to the limit. Murray's averaging 20.5 PPG in the postseason plus four more players chip in between 9.1 and 13.1 PPG, while two others add 6.3 & 6.2 PPG. Denver is the NBA's deepest team. Star PG Damian Lillard added 28 points in 58 minutes in the win and leads Portland this postseason, averaging 30.8-4.4-6.0. However, it was his backcourt mate, CJ McCollum, who drained the big shots in the fourth quarter and in the third overtime to keep the game alive, before finishing with 41 points in 60 minutes. McCollum is averaging 24.9-5.6-4.12 in the playoffs. Center Enes Kanter is battling a separated shoulder but still managed 18 points and 15 rebounds in 56 minutes in Game 3 and is averaging a double-double this postseason (15.6 & 10.2). Let's NOT ignore Rodney Hood, who came off the bench to score seven of his career playoff-high 19 points in the fourth overtime. His three-pointer with 18.6 seconds remaining gave the Blazers a 138-136 lead they wouldn't relinquish. He's averaging 17.0 PPG in the series!! Denver is the deeper team, so does that favor them here off Friday's 'marathon?' I guess one could argue that but I'm NOT one of them. Look at the facts. The Nuggets finished the regular season (from Dec 1 through its end) going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams. Here IN the playoffs, the Nuggets are 1-4 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Blazers last lost a home game way back on March 7, 129-121 in OT to OKC. Portland takes a 12-game home winning streak into this contest and with this pointspread, should cover "with room to spare!? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 3:35 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers dropped the first game of their Eastern Conference opening round series at home vs the Brooklyn Nets but rebounded to win and cover the next four games. Could it be deja vu all over again for Philly in their semifinal series against the Toronto Raptors? The 76ers were manhandled 108-95 by the Raptors in Game 1 but then won Game 2 by the score of 94-89, which broke a 14-game losing streak for the 76ers in Toronto. Was that win a breakthrough? It sure looked like that in Game 3, as the 76ers routed the Raptors, 116-95. All five Philly starters scored in double digits but Embiid (33 & 10) and Butler (22-9-9) were the key performers. Leonard's been outstanding for Toronto this postseason, averaging 31.5 PPG on shooting 57.9%, including averaging 37.7 points on 60.9 percent shooting in this series. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry is shooting 36.1 percent from the floor in the series and slumped to seven points on 2-of-10 from the floor in Thursday's loss. Lowry's had a history of very erratic play in the postseason. Maybe a bigger problem for Toronto is that the 6-9 Pascal Siakam, who had a breakout regular season and is averaging 23.3 points and 5.7 rebounds on 36.3 minutes through the first three games. He's listed as doubtful due to a right calf contusion. Embiid has been hampered by a sore left knee throughout the postseason but had a playoff career-high 33 points to go along with 10 rebounds and five blocked shots in only 28 minutes in Game 3. He became the first player since Boston's Kevin McHale to post at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in less than 30 minutes in a playoff game. Butler was the star in Philly's Game 2 win and was excellent again in Game 3 (see above). Not only did all five Philly starters reach double digits in Game 3 but all five are averaging double figures during Philly's eight postseason games. I realize Philly looks to be in a great position in teh series, especially with Siakam listed as doubtful but don't be surprised to see him "give it a go." However, I'm still not completely sold on Philly plus one never knows when Embiid's sore left knee will act up. As for Toronto, Leonard is capable of carrying his team plus as noted above, Lowry has been know to follow dreadful efforts in the playoffs with excellent ones. Also, Ibaka (15.0 & 8.1 in the regular season) is overdue for a big game, as is veteran center Gasol, who has been dominated by Embiid (Gasol is 6-of-20 from the floor in the series). The Raptors had held opponents under 100 points in six straight playoff games (winning the first five), allowing the 76ers to shoot 51.2 percent from the floor in Game 3, while scoring 116 points. "I think we had six straight games of tremendous effort and tremendous defense, right?" Toronto head coach Nick Nurse asked reporters. "(Thursday) night we didn't have that, so again I think that the six in a row is what you're trying to get back to, with that kind of effort and whatever." Toronto has lost back-to-back games but has lost THREE straight just ONCE all season, way back from Nov 12-16. I'm "all over" the Raptors in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 102 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Showdown is on the Hou Rockets at 8:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors brushed aside the chatter about officiating after Game 1 (a 104 victory) and earned a 115-109 win in Game 2 on Tuesday. The teams have been off for three days when they resume their bitter rivalry tonight in Houston, as the Warriors look to take a commanding 3-0 advantage in Saturday's Game 3. The Rockets had their chances in each of teh first two games but it was the Warriors who made the big (key) plays. K.D. is averaging 34.2 PPG in the postseason but it's impossible to ignore the recent play of Green and Iquodala. With Cousins out, Kerr has returned to the starting lineup which won the team it first title, beating the Cavs in the 2015 NBA Finals. Iquodala, who won the 2015 Finals MVP, has been added to the starting lineup and he's averaged 15.0-4.3-3.3 the last three games, after averaging just 5.7 PPG during the regular season. Green has long been considered one of the NBA best overall players but he had a so-so season. However, he's averaged 15.0-11.7-8.7 the last three games. His defense, along with Iqoudala's, KD's and Thompson's, make the Warriors one helluva team. However, the Rockets have given the Warriors first the last couple years, but in the end, always seem to fall short. Will it change here in 2019? James Harden had to leave Game 2 briefly after getting scratched in both eyes. "He got raked pretty good in the eyes, but that's him," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "I mean, I didn't have a doubt that he was coming back unless it was something catastrophic. I'm sure he would have loved to play better. Under the circumstances, I thought he played great." Harden averaged 36.1-6.6-7.5 in the regular season but he's shooting just 37.7% in the postseason (down from 44.2%), while averaging 29.0 PPG. This is Houston's game to win.The Rockets have had off since Tuesday and falling behind 0-3 leaves them in an impossible position. As good as Golden St is, Houston has won the last two season series against them and led 3-2 in the Western Conference finals last year, before Paul got hurt and couldn't play in Games 6 & 7 (Golden St won both). All hands are on deck for this one and if not now for Houston, when? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET. Boston was able to get past Milwaukee last year, escaping with a Game 7 win at home to eliminate the upstart Bucks in the first round. However, the Bucks won more games than any team in this year's NBA (60) and opened their second round series with the Celtics this postseason as prohibitive favorites, after averaging 121.8 points during a four-game, first-round sweep of the Detroit Pistons. Boston won 49 games during the regular season (11 fewer than Milwaukee) and while the Celtics also delivered a four-game sweep in the first round (over the Pacers), Sunday's Game 1 results has to be considered stunning. Fourth-seeded Boston frustrated Milwaukee MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo and received an outstanding performance from Al Horford while posting a dominating 112-90 victory. Kyrie Irving opened the series with 26 points and 11 assists (no surprise, as he's led the team in scoring all season) but it was Horford's performance that had all talking after the game. Horford had 20 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks in the 22-point triumph and led the charge against Antetokounmpo, who was just 7-of-21 shooting while scoring 22 points. Horford was on the floor at the same time as Antetokounmpo for 22 minutes. During that time, Antetokounmpo made just 2 of 11 shots and had two shots blocked by Horford, as the Bucks posted a 63.3 offensive rating in those minutes. The top-seeded Bucks shot just 34.8 percent from the floor and had 11 shots blocked! Forward Khris Middeton (18.3-6.0-4.3 during the regular season) contributed 16 points, 10 rebounds and six assists but Milwaukee's other three starters combined for just 12 points on 3-of-17 shooting. So what should we expect in Game 2? Boston not only played great D in Game 1 but also shot 54 percent. It was the team's highest field goal percentage in a conference semifinal game since Game 5 in 2010 at Cleveland. Boston is unbeaten in the postseason and is attempting to start a postseason with six straight wins for the first time since 1985-86. The Celtics are allowing 91.4 PPG in their first five playoff games. Getting back to Milwaukee, the Bucks' 34.8 shooting percentage was their worst in a postseason game since Game 6 of 2015's first round contest against the Chicago Bulls. Do NOT expect a repeat performance. Milwaukee averaged 118.1 PPG (1st) in the regular season, while making 47.6% from the floor (3rd). The Bucks have averaged 119.2 PPG at home in going 35-9 SU (includes the postseason) and what's more, Milwaukee held its opponents to 43.3% shooting during the regular season, best in the league. The "real" Bucks show up tonight, as does the team's would-be league MVP. Sunday's loss was the third-worst loss by a No. 1 seed in a series opener under the league's current format. The Bucks have NO intention of joining the 2018 Toronto Raptors as the only top seed to fall behind 2-0 in this round under the current 16-team format that began in 1984. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:30 ET. The third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers will be well-rested when they visit the second-seeded Denver Nuggets for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday. The Blazers eliminated the OKC Thunder in five games last Tuesday, while the Nuggets needed all seven games to get past San Antonio. Denver edged the Spurs 90-86 this past Saturday night at Pepsi Center. Portland PG Damian Lillard exploded for 50 points in the team's Game 5 clincher against the Thunder, with the last three coming on a step-back three-pointer at the buzzer from 37 feet away. Lillard (33.0-4.4-6.0) and backcourt partner CJ McCollum (24.4-5.4-4.0) carried the scoring load in the first round but the team was able to overcome the loss of starting center Jusuf Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4 during the regular season) thanks to the play of Enes Kanter (13.2 & 10.2). Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its first round win came mostly on the back of the team's All Star center, Nikola Jokic. He led the Nuggets in scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) in the regular season and recorded a triple-double with 21 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 7. Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record he averaged 23.1-12.1-9.1 assists vs the Blazers with six double-doubles (included were triple-doubles in Games 1 & 7). Point guard Jamal Murray, the team's second best player during the regular season (18.2-4.2-4.8), was inconsistent in the first round but came through with a team-high 23 points in the clincher. The Blazers are better rested but the Nuggets come in with plenty of confidence. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning THREE of four at home in the first round and the Nuggets are 29-5 in their last 34 home games. The Nuggets fared well against the Trail Blazers in the regular season, winning the first three meetings (extending their winning streak to SIX in a row over Portland), before the Blazers ended that six-game skid with a 115-108 home win on April 7.However, in that contest, Denver rested both Jamal Murray AND Nikola Jokic. Safe to say Jokic won't be rested here and I believe a fully-healthy Kanter would have a difficult time dealing with Jokic. However, it's hard to see Kanter being 100 percent. He reportedly played through a separated shoulder in the Game 5 win last Tuesday and has received treatment all week while practicing on a limited basis. I think the Blazers are doing a very good job taking care of it. But, I mean obviously, I'm not going to lie, it hurts pretty bad," Kanter told reporters Friday. "I mean I'm having a hard time changing my shirt or eating food. So it's a process. We're just taking it day by day, see how it feels."That does NOT seem like promising news for Portland fans (bettors). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors barely escaped the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference finals last season. PG Chris Paul went down in Game 5 of that series with a hamstring injury and the Warriors would go on to take the series, winning Game 6 at home in a rout and then eking out a Game 7 win in Houston, as the Rockets 'shot themselves in the foot' by missing 27 three-pointers in a row during the decisive Game 7. The teams meet in a rematch a round earlier this year and the while the top-seeded Warriors own the homecourt advantage this time around, the fourth-seeded Rockets did win both regular season meetings in Oakland during the regular season. The Rockets went up 3-0 in their series with the Jazz and after a Game 4 'stumble,' closed out Utah back at Houston in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Warriors were shocked in Game 2 at home by the Clippers and then again at home in Game 5, after they entered that contest off back-to-back wins in LA. Golden St took care of the Clippers easily in Game 6, as K.D. had a career playoff-high 50 points and the team's defense (thanks in large part to Andre Iguodala) harassed LA's Lou Williams into 3-for-21 shooting in the series finale (note: Williams had 36 and 33 points in Gam2 and Game 5 wins at Oakland). Maybe it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that the Rockets had an easier time in the first round than the Warriors, as over the regular season's final eight weeks the Rockets went 20-4, while the Warriors were a modest 15-9. However, while James Harden struggled to 37.4 percent from the floor in the first round, Kevin Durant averaged 35 points on 56.7 percent shooting vs the Clippers. The rivals will be meeting in the postseason for the fourth time in the last five seasons, with Golden State having prevailed in the previous three. The Rockets lost 10 of 11 in the regular season and eight of 10 in the playoffs to the Warriors to begin the Steve Kerr coaching era but have won each of the last two season series. However, let's NOT forget Houston's loss to Golden St in last year's Western Finals (see above). Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both limped off the court after rolling ankles in Friday's Game 6 but I sure wouldn't count them out, here. Game 1 is HUGE and I'm making a 'big play" on the three-time NBA champs (over a four-year span). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 120-103 win at home. LaMarcus Aldrige had pretty much been a non-factor in the first five games of the series but scored 26 points and added 10 rebounds in Game 6. DeRozan, the team's leading scorer in the postseason so far at 22.5 PPG, chipped in 25-7-7, plus Rudy Gay had 19 points. San Antonio opened the fourth quarter on a 22-4 run, blowing the game open and finished the contest shooting 57.1 percent from the floor. The Nuggets dominated the paint in Game 6 (outscored the Spurs 72-36) but shot a woeful 6 of 24 (25%) on threes. Jokic posted a career-playoff high of 43 points and just missed a triple-double with 12 rebounds and nine asists. The series concludes with Saturday's Game 7 in Denver. San Antonio is looking to avoid its second straight first-round exit, after staving off elimination by shooting 57.1 percent from the floor and committing just eight turnovers. Can the Spurs really do that again here in Denver?The Spurs did win Game 1 of this series in Denver but in Game 2 and 5 losses at Pepsi center, the Spurs averaged just 97.5 PPG on 43.2% shooting, including 28.6% on threes. Denver's All-Star center Nikola Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record and he enters Game 7 averaging 23.5-11.7-9.0 with five double-doubles in the series. Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its bench totaled only 13 points on 5-of-24 shooting in Game 6. Doesn't that almost HAVE to change here in Game 7? Here's the rub. The Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. Throw in San Antonio's road losses (and non-covers) in Games 2 and 5 and the Spurs are 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS (or 1-7-1 ATS) in tonight's situation since Jan 1. As for Denver, the Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in this series and the Nuggets are 28-5 in their last 33 home games. Home teams win Game 7s more than 80% of the time and I'm laying the points. This is NOT "your father's" Spurs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. The 48-34 San Antonio Spurs entered the 2019 postseason as the West's No. 7 seed but they've been playoff regulars, as 2019 marked the team's 22nd consecutive postseason appearance (it's the longest streak among the four major North American sports). As for the 54-28 Denver Nuggets, they lost a chance to make the postseason last year when they lost in OT at Minnesota in the season's final game. However, Denver surprised this season by battling the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed. The Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed with a record in the regular season. The Spurs shocked the Nuggets in Game 1, winning at Pepsi Center. However, the Nuggets have won Games 2, 4 & 5 of the series and tonight in San Antonio are in position to win a playoff series for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, the Spurs are looking to avoid their second consecutive first-round exit and to avoid that scenario, will have to put up a better effort than they did in Game 5. The Nuggets dominated Game 5, leading by 11 at the half and by as many as 30 points in the final quarter to seize their first lead of the series. I've noted all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Jamal Murray paced Denver with 23 points, one of SEVEN Nuggets in double figures. All-Star center Nikola Jokic has four double-doubles (including one triple double) during a strong playoff debut. He's averaging 19.6-11.6-9.0 in the series. Second-year PG Derrick White starred in the first three games of this series, averaging 23.0 PPG, as the Spurs went up 2-1. However, he's struggled in two straight losses, averaging just 10.0 PPG on 8-of-19 shooting (42.1%). LaMarcus Aldridge paced the Spurs in Game 5 with 17 points and 10 rebounds but overall, has been a non-factor in the series, after leading San Antonio in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the regular season. Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan added 17 points but made just 6 of 15 shots. He's averaged just 18 points in the back-to-back setbacks, dropping his team-best series average to 22.0. Here's the rub. "A close-out game is the hardest game that many of our young players will ever play in, especially against a team like San Antonio," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters."We want to win two straight," Spurs guard Bryn Forbes said,. "Our goal is to play the best two games we can put together and try to win these next two." I just don't see the veteran Spurs "going out' in this Game 6 at home. After all, when the Nuggets 'rocked' the Spurs in Game 4, that victory snapped a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio which stretched back to March 4, 2012. That Game 4 win also was just Denver's SECOND win on the road (in 13 tries!) vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. This series is headed back to Denver for a Game 7.
Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-23-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OKC Thunder at 10:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers are on the verge of reaching the Western Conference semifinals after taking a 3-1 series lead over the sixth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Portland is best-known as an offensive team but the team's defense has been equally important in building a 3-1 lead in this first-round playoff series with OKC. The Blazers have held the Thunder under 100 points in each of their three wins. That said, let's NOT ignore Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard (28.8) and McCollum (26.3), who have helped the team take a 3-1 lead. Lillard and McCollum combined for 51 points and 11 assists in Game 4, which was 34 points more than the Thunder's starting backcourt accounted for. Then there is center Enes Kanter, who has stepped in for the injured Nurkic to average 13.3 & 9.5, outplaying OKC's Steven Adams (Adams was held to six points on Sunday, his first single-digit effort of the series). Can (will?) Portland close it out there in Game 5? Paul George is averaging 26.8 points and 8.5 rebounds in the series but is shooting only 37 percent from the floor, including 30.8 from three-point range. Guard Russell Westbrook is averaging 21.3--8.3-9.8 but is shooting 36.3 percent from the floor, including 30.4 from the three-point line. OKC needs more form its complementary players as noted by backup point guard Dennis Schroder. "We've got to move the ball," he told reporters. "They're doing a great job playing (All-Stars Russell Westbrook and Paul George), but I think the other guys who were on the floor got to be aggressive, got to get the ball, make a play for somebody else or finish." That makes sense but if OKC is to win, Westbrook and George will have to come up big. Game 1 came down to the wire but then Portland routed OKC in Game 2, Westbrook was 5 of 20 in Game 2 but rebounded with 33 points and 11 assists in Game 2, a 120-108 OKC win. Westbrook was 5-of-21 from the floor in Game 4, including 0-of-10 in the second half, as the Blazers again routed OKC (George struggled with an 8-of-21 effort). No series pick from me but I expect OKC's "Big 2" will carry the day, here (watch out for Adams, as well). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-23-19 | Nets +8.5 v. 76ers | 100-122 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Brk Nets at 8:05 ET. The Brooklyn Nets (+7.5) upset the 76ers in Game 1 by a score of 111-102 in Philly, as the home team heard boos coming off the court. However, Philly has recovered to win THREE in a row, including a 112-108 victory at Brooklyn in Game 4. "We were right there," guard Spencer Dinwiddie told reporters after Saturday's loss put the Sixers up 3-1. "We feel like we should've won. We weren't saying this was a learning experience when we won Game 1. So we can't fall back on that now. We need to try to pull off something incredible." To do so, sixth-seeded Brooklyn will need to keep its emotions in check following a contest that saw multiple ejections after a scrum along the baseline. The Nets have relied on the backcourt duo of Caris LeVert and D'Angelo Russell, who combined for 46 points in Game 4. Russell (22.3) is leading the team in this series, followed by LeVert (21.8) and fellow guard Dinwiddie (17.5). Center Jarrett Allen is averaging 11.8 & 6.3 and is coming off his best game of the season, going for 21 & 8 on Saturday. However, after shooting a league-best 47.4% from three-point range this season, Joe Harris missed all six of his long-range attempts in the Game 4 loss and is 0-for-12 in the three straight defeats, after making 3-of-4 in the victory in Game 1. He averaged 13.7 PPG during the regular season but is averaging just 8.8 in the series, while shooting 18.8% on threes. Joel Embiid is averaging 25.3 points (on 51% shooting), 13.7 rebounds, 3.7 blocks and four assists while playing about 26 minutes per game. He led the way for Philadelphia with 31 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists and six blocked shots in Game 4, after sitting out Game 3. He was limited to an average of 22.5 minutes through the first two games of the series and missed 14 of the final 24 regular-season games (not to mention Game 3 of this series). Is it possible Embiid could 'sit' tonight, or at least be limited? Let's not forget that the Nets were 8-18 through Dec 5 but went 34-22 from that point to finish 42-40 and grab the sixth seed. Brooklyn does NOT have to win here, to "get the cash" and note that Philly was just 13-17 ATS its final 30 regular season games. The bet is to take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-23-19 | Magic +12.5 v. Raptors | 96-115 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET. The Raptors were shocked by the Magic in Game 1 of this series, as Orlando won 104-10 in Toronto. That shouldn't have been too much of a surprise, as the Raptors fell to 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history with the loss and to just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. However, what is different this year is, Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. Leonard scored 37 points in the Raptors' 111-82 Game 2 victory and while he was less than 100% in Game 3 (dealing with an illness), he still manged 16 points and 10 rebounds. Leonard led the assault in Toronto's 107-85 Game 4 win, scoring 34 points. As for Orlando, after making 14 of 29 three-pointers (48.3%) in their Game 1 win, the Magic have gone a woeful 29 of 111 (26.1%) from three-point range in three straight losses. Leonard is averaging 28.0 points in the series and said after Game 4 he is enjoying being back in the playoffs after missing the postseason last season while injured with the San Antonio Spurs. Power forward Pascal Siakam is averaging 22.3 points and nine rebounds in the series, following his excellent regular season. The Magic are averaging just 86.7 points during their three straight losses, scoring 85 or fewer points in two of the losses. That said, Orlando won Game 1 here and also won on the road as part of a 2-2 split in the regular season. Yes, Leonard's presence makes Toronto a different team in 2019 but the Raptors have NEVER previously won four straight in a playoff series. Expect the Magic to play 'loose' here and let's not forget, the Magic are getting about two 'TD' (excluding extra-points). Take those points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | Top | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. James Harden incredibly missed his first 15 field-goal attempts and finished 3-of-20 from the floor but came through with a pair of thee-pointers in the fourth quarter and had no trouble getting to the free-throw line (14 of 16) while finishing with 22 points in Houston's 104-101 victory in Game 3. Harden scored 14 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter and added 10 assists and six steals in the victory. PG Chris Paul scored 18 points, Clint Capela recorded a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds and P.J. Tucker scored the last of his 12 points at the free-throw line to seal the win on Saturday. Utah saw guard Donovan Mitchell score a series-high 34 points in Game 3 but he missed a wide-open look at a three-pointer that would have tied the game with 8.7 seconds left. Overall, Mitchell was just 9 of 27 from the floor and he missed FIVE of his 17 free-throw attempts. Head coach Quin Snyder gave Jae Crowder the Game 3 start but he finished with just five points in 24 minutes. SF Joe Ingles is only 4-of-17 from three-point range in the series. One could look at this series this way. The Utah Jazz did about as well as any team can possibly do defensively against James Harden in Game 3, yet still couldn't come away with a victory. "We didn't capitalize as much as we needed to, especially during a stretch there in the third quarter where I thought we had a chance to build a little bit of a lead," Snyder told reporters after the game. "We got some looks that we had to take, and they didn't fall." The Jazz were understandably deflated after the game but struggling Donovan Mitchell promises he and his teammates will put forth an extreme effort in Game 4. "I don't think anybody is going to just lay over Monday," Mitchell said during a press conference. "I don't think that is going to be the case. I don't think that is what our organization is based on. ... It is an uphill battle, but we are not going to lay over and give them a game." Houston is in prime position to close out the first-round series with Utah but the Rockets haven't swept a playoff series since taking three straight from the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the 1997 postseason (that's more than 20 years ago!). The Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG. Here in Game 4, the Jazz are small home dogs, unlike in Game 3 in which they were a small favorite. Expect Utah to send this series back to Houston. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5.5 | Top | 107-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors Lost Game 1 of this series, 104-101 at home. That could hardly been too much of a surprise, as the Raptors fell to 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history and just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. However, what is different this year is, Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. Leonard scored 37 points in the Raptors' 111-82 Game 2 victory. He was way less than 100% in Game 3 (dealing with an illness) but he still manged 16 points and 10 rebounds. Stepping into the void was third-year forward Pascal Siakam, who scored 30 points (a career playoff high) on 13-of-20 shooting while also collecting 11 rebounds in 42 minutes, as the Raptors eked out a 98-93 win to take a 2-1 series lead. Orlando won 13 of its final 14 regular-season home games but shot just 36.3 percent from the floor and committed 16 turnovers in Game 3. Swingman Terrence Ross scored a team-high 24 points off the bench, while center Nikola Vucevic scored 22 on 7-of-13 shooting. The Magic may have lost but Vucevic's return to scoring form in Game 3 was great news. He had averaged 20.8 points (51.8% shooting) and 12.0 rebounds during the season, but had averaged 8.5 points and 7.0 in the first two games of the series. His 22 points and 14 rebounds on Friday need to be replicated in Game 4. Staritng guards Augustin (Game 1 hero) and Fournier also need to play MUCH better, as in the two losses, the duo has combined to shoot 9 of 37 (24.3%). Orlando may be the No. 7 seed but the Magic went 22-9 (.710) in the regular season after Jan 31. Only the Houston Rockets (24-8, .750) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, .727) had a better winning percentage in the NBA during that span. As noted above, the Magic won 13 of their last 14 home games. The Magic hardly played well in Game 3 but still lost by just five points. Expect a MUCH better effort here and remember, the Raptors (in their SIXTH straight postseason), are a "money-burning" 7-18 (28.0%) ATS on the road in the playoffs. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. Houston at the buzzer, 112-11. Then, both Denver and Portland won the next night, dropping the Rockets to the No. 4 seed. However, Houston has shown no signs of a let down, routing the Jazz 120-90 in Game 1 and 118-98 in Game 2. "The Rockets are playing at an unbelievably high level," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "They're going to make plays. The adjustment to that is to just keep competing. That's the mindset that we have to have." Utah is struggling to find a rhythm on offense and in particular, the Jazz have made just 15-of-65 (23.1%) from three-point range in the first two games. James Harden is averaging 30.5-8.5-10.5 in the first two games plus backcourt mates Gordon (16.5) and Paul (15.5) are supporting him nicely. Center Clint Capela is averaging a double-double (11.5 & 11.0) and he's been supported by fellow frontcourt players Tucker (13.5), House (9.5) and Faried (9.0 & 6.0). On the Utah side, center Gobert (16.5 & 12.) and PG Rubio (16.0) have out-performed the Jazz' best player, Donovan Mitchell (23.8-4.1-4.2 in the regular season). Mitchell has averaged just 15.0 PPG, while shooting percent, including 4 of 15 on threes. Jae Crowder was a valuable role player in the regular season (11.9 & 4.8) but he's scored just 14 points in two games, shooting 16.7% from the floor, including 2 of 13 on threes. After watching the first two games, Houston looks unbeatable. However, is it EVER that simple? Utah's Snyder put it simply. "Our group has always been a group that's responded, and that's what we have to do. We played poorly, and we have to be better. That will be the focus." I'll add that the Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-19-19 | Blazers v. Thunder -7.5 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the OKC Thunder at 9:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers were able to edge the OKC Thunder 103-99 in Game 1 and then had little trouble going up 2-0 in their first-round series by routing OKC 114-94 in Game 2. It will come as no surprise that the Blazers have been led by their dynamic guard duo of Lillard (29.5-4.0-5.0) and McCollum (28.5-7.0-4.0). On the OKC side, Paul George has led the Thunder by averaging 26.5 & 9.0, while PG Westbrook has added 19.0-9.5-10.5. That said, Westbrook made just 5 of 20 shots in Game 2 has been soundly outplayed by Lillard. "I know how quickly things can change," Lillard told reporters. "I know that a series doesn't start until you win a game on the road. I also know how capable their team is. So, we've just got to maintain our focus, stay sharp in the things we've been sharp in and understand how well we played in the first game and the second game is not going to be good enough in the third game, especially on their home floor. We've got to keep our heads down and keep working." Lillard and McCollum have led the way but Enes Kanter (13.0 & 11.5) has been HUGE for Portland, as he's played OKC center Steven Adams to a standstill. Here's what OKC must change in Game 3. The Thunder have made only 10 of 61 shots (16.4%) from three-point range. Paul George is 6 for 22 on his three-point attempts and Russell Westbrook is 1 for 10 in the series. Jerami Grant and Dennis Schroder are both 0 for 8 and Terrance Ferguson 2 for 7.It's hard to make up numbers that bad! What's more, OKC has committed 16 turnovers in each of the first two games, with Thunder head coach Billy Donovan has pointed toward the miscues as one reason for the team's stagnant offense. OKC returned from the All Star break to go 7-13 and seemed headed for the West's No. 8 seed and a first round meeting with the Warriors. However, the Thunder won their final FIVE regular season games (4-1 ATS) to earn the No. 6 seed. OKC got what it wanted (avoiding Golden St). Tonight, the Thunder need to "step up" and avoid falling down 0-3 vs the Blazers. My bet says Westbrook responds and the Thunder do just that! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -3 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers 8:35 ET. Kyrie Irving is making the most of his first playoff series with the Boston Celtics. He scored 20 points and helped lead a dominant defensive effort in a series-opening 84-74 win and then finished with 37 points, six rebounds and seven assists in Wednesday's come-from-behind 99-91 victory in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference best-of-seven matchup. Boston trailed by 12 points with 11 minutes remaining in Game 2, before putting together a 16-0 run during a fourth quarter in which the Celtics would outscore the Pacers 31-12 for a 99-91 win. In Game 1, the Pacers led 45-38 at the half but then got outscored 26-8 in the quarter. "It's always been one quarter that kills us in the second half," Pacers forward Thaddeus Young told reporters of his team, after Indiana fell behind 2-0 in the series. "We're getting good looks and shots are not falling. ... We gotta put together a 48-minute game and we haven't been able to that."That pretty much sums it up. Jayson Tatum scored 26 points in Wednesday's win and was the catalyst in a game-ending 10-0 surge by producing six points and one assist. Tatum is averaging 20.5 points on 54.8 percent shooting in the series but Boston could use more balanced scoring. Kyrie is averaging 28.5-5.5-7.0 but Boston needs more from the rest of its players. Indiana knows all to well about players underachieving in the series, so far. Big men Sabonis and Turner, who averaged 14.1 & 9.3 and 13.3 & 7.2 during the regular season, respectively, have been playoff "no-shows." Sabonis is averaging a woeful 4.0 PPG (7.0 RPG), while Turner has hardly been much better (6.5 & 6.5). Shooting guard Wesley Matthews (10.9 PPG in the regular season) was held to six points in Game, his second straight single-digit effort. Boston has won five straight meetings overall with Indiana, the last four of which have come in a 20-day span. The Pacers have shot 39 percent in the series, including 31 percent on three-pointers and have totaled just 165 points in the first two games. Considering that Indiana has lost its last 10 games when the team has failed to reach triple digits (note: The Celtics have won five in a row when holding opponents under 100), the Pacers have to find a way to "score the ball." Consider this. Remember that the Celtics went up on Milwaukee with two series-opening wins at home in the first round last year, only to lose two straight on the road to let the Bucks right back in that series. Boston did go on to win that in seven games but the Celtics finished a pathetic 1-7 on the road in the 2018 postseason. Pacers get back in it here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 9:05 ET. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home, after going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center but the SA Spurs, who had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, would win Game 1 last Saturday by the score of 101-96. In Tuesday's Game 2, the Nuggets found themselves down 19 points (78-59) late in the third quarter, headed for an 0-2 hole in the series. However, PG Jamal Murray, who made critical mistakes down the stretch in Game 1 and was dreadful for the first three quarters of Game 2, erupted to score 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter of the comeback victory. Murray missed all eight of his field-goal attempts over the first three quarters but coach Michael Malone stuck with him and he was a blistering 8-of-9 shooting as Denver outscored the Spurs 39-23 over the final 12 minutes (55-27, after that 78-59 deficit). "We don't quit," reserve guard Malik Beasley told reporters. "Playoff experience matters, but as long as you play hard and play together, that's what matters on the court." Guard Gary Harris scored 23 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 2 and is averaging 21.5 points in the series. Center Jokic, who led Denver is scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) on the season, added 21-13-8. Veteran PF Millsap had 20 points, one of four 20-point scorers for Denver in Game 2. I've noted often that Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more are averaging between 5.8 and 8.7 PPG (does not include "IT" who has played just 12 games this season, after playing in two of the team's six April games and hasn't played in the series). As for the Spurs, it was a big missed opportunity. "We got Game 1. We fought, tried to get Game 2, but we got homecourt shifting our way," Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan told reporters. "Now, it's on us to go home and do what we need to do, understand if we take care of home, like we've been doing all year, we can come back here with an opportunity. We feel great where we're at. We understood it wasn't going to be a cake walk." Aldridge (21.3 & 9.2) and DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2) were the Spurs' "one-two punch" during the regular season and although the Spurs can't quite meet the overall depth and strength of Denver's bench, the Spurs still own quite a impressive group of role players. In Game 1, White had 16 points (he's averaging 16.5 in the series), Forbes (15 points) and Gay (14 points). Then in Game 2, DeRozan poured in 31 points,Aldridge added 24 and PG D White 17 but no other player scored in double digits. Let's not forget that the Spurs led Tuesday's game from the middle of the first quarter to the middle of the fourth (often by double digits). The Spurs now return home and have to be more than just a little angry that they are not up 2-0. What better head coach could a team ask for in this situation than Pop. The Nuggets have to feel as if they are playing with 'house money' after stealing Game 2 bu the task ahead is a formidable one. Denver has lost 13 straight games in San Antonio, a streak that dates back to March 4, 2012. Even of more importance is the following. The Nuggets finished the regular season going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. Lay the more than reasonable points with the Spurs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. Denver surprised this season by ending a five-season playoff drought. In fact, the Nuggets battled the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed, before finishing 54-28 to earn the No. 2 seed. As for the Spurs, they were inside the playoff 'cut line' almost the entire season (although not by much) and finished 48-34 (No. 7 seed) to make the team's 22nd straight postseason. The veteran Spurs led for most of Game 1 but the Nuggets were down just five with 2:24 left and had a chance to take the lead but Jamal Murray misfired on an 18-footer with 9.4 seconds left. The Nuggets also had an opportunity to force overtime but Spurs rookie PG Derrick White stole the ball from Murray with 2.1 seconds remaining and hit two free throws with 1.3 seconds left to seal the 101-96 victory. All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the season and his 'partner in crime' was shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2). DeRozan had 18 points and 12 rebounds but made just 6 of 17 shots. He was one of five San Antonio players to score in double digits. Aldridge contributed 15 & 8 but was just 6-of-19 from the floor. Derrick White (16 points), Bryn Forbes (15 points) and Rudy Gay (14 points) picked up the slack and shot a combined 19 of 28 (67.9%). The Spurs held Denver to 42 percent shooting and Denver didn't score a point in transition. San Antonio held Denver center Nikola Jokic (20.0-10.8-7.2) to 10 points by double-teaming the All-Star center when he was in the low post. However, he added 14 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 1 to become the fourth player in NBA history to record a triple-double in his first career playoff game. Jamal Murray (18.2-4.2-4.8) had 17 points but was just 8-of-24 from the floor (33.3%), including missing that dreadful wide-open shot late, that might have been the difference between winning and losing. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Meanwhile, the Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. It's hard to see White, Forbes and Gay combing for 45 points on 67.9% shooting, again. Also, will the Spurs go 7-of-15 from three-point range like in Game 1, with Denver going 6-of-28 (21.4%)? Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team and with better shooting performances from Jokic and Murray, should win rather easily. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-16-19 | Magic v. Raptors -9.5 | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors have been well-known for their postseason failures but still, the Orlando Magic's 104-101 win in this Eastern Conference first-round matchup was a considered a stunning upset. Then again, we shouldn't have been surprised. After all, the Raptors are now 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history and just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. As for Orlando, the Magic may be the East's No. 7 seed, but they went 22-9 (.710) in the regular season after Jan 31. Only the Houston Rockets (24-8, .750) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, .727) had a better winning percentage in the NBA during that span. Orlando's vet PG Augustin was 9-of-13 shooting, including 4-of-5 from three-point range, while pouring in 25 points in Game 1. His three-pointer with 4.2 seconds left was the game-winner, after he had tied the game with a layup. "These last few months, especially since after All-Star break, I think we have one of the best records in the NBA," said Augustin after Game 1. "It's just a mindset that we came in with. Our goal was to make the playoffs, and just not make it, we want to make noise and win a series or two. We feel like we can, we believe in ourselves, coach believes in us and I feel like that's all we need to get some good wins and build momentum." Orlando won with tits two best players, Vucevic (20.8 & 12.0) and Gordon (16.0 & 7.4) combing to make just 6 of 24 shots (.25.0%). The Magic's perimeter shooting made took up teh slacke, as the etam made 14 of 29 three-pointers (48.3%). The Raptors were confused on Augustin's decisive play, as neither small forward Kawhi Leonard nor center Marc Gasol made a move to contest his shot and the end result was a surprising setback. "It was a mistake made on that play," Gasol told reporters of the missed assignment. "We mis-communicated and he made a good shot." Kawhi Leonard (26.6 & 7.3) scored 25 points in his first playoff outing with the Raptors, while forward Pascal Siakam (16.9 & 6.9) also stood out with 24 points and nine rebounds. However, Raptors PG Kyle Lowry (14.2-4.8-8.7) missed all SEVEN of his shots (0-for-6 from three-point range), while going scoreless in the opener. OK, so the Raptors are in a familiar spot, as the fell to 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series in franchise history. However, Toronto has never had a player like Leonard, who won an NBA title with the Spurs in 2014, when he was named Finals MVP. The Raptors were 32-9 SU at home during the season and NO WAY the Magic hit 48% from three-point range again. Magic 'return to earth' in this one plus expect a huge bounce-back from Lowry. Lay it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 8:00 ET. The Brooklyn Nets finished 42-40 to earn the East's No. 6 seed. It's the team's first playoff appearance since 2015, with the team entering this season off years of 21, 20 and 28 wins. Brooklyn guards D'Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie combined for 67 points on Saturday, leading the Nets to a 111-102 victory in Philadelphia over the 76ers to seize homecourt advantage away from the No. 3 seed. The 76ers saw Jimmy Butler score 36 points and Joel Embiid add 22 and 15 rebounds in his return from a knee issue, but they were a woeful 3-of-25 (12.0%) from three-point range. LeVert paced a 59-point attack for the Brooklyn's bench combined for 59 points in Game 1, getting 23 very productive minutes (23 points) from LeVert, roughly two months into his return from a dislocated foot. D'Angelo Russell started slowly by missing 12 of his first 15 shots but led the Nets with 26 points. The key to Game 1 for Brooklyn was its reserves outscoring Philly's by a 59-26 margin by adding 23 points. Four Brooklyn reserves played at least 20 minutes. Butler was terrific but while and Embiid had 22 & 15, it was 'quiet' 22 as he missed 10 of 15 shots. He also seemed to shay away from the physical play of Brooklyn's big men. Philadelphia saw its other three starters, Tobias Harris (18.2 & 7.9), JJ Redick (18.1) and Ben Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) combined for only 18 points on 8 of 23 shooting (34.8%). Philly heard plenty of boos in Game 1 (the 76ers trailed by as many as 16 points) and need to start strong in Game 2. The Nets are back in the postseason for the first time since 2015 and a win would mark the first time the team has held a 2-0 lead in a series since sweeping the New York Knicks in the opening round of the 2004 postseason. Philly was 31-10 at home during the regular season by averaging 117.9 PPG. I just don't see Brooklyn's reserves can possibly match their Game 1 performance plus expect Philly's starters to rebound. Philly shot 35.9% (8th) from three-point range on the season, so NO WAY we'll see another 3-of-25 effort. Also, Philly missed 13 FTs in Game 1. 76ers bounce back in a big way in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-14-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -6 | 90-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insideris on the Hou Rockets at 9:30 ET. The Houston Rockets won an NBA-best 67 games last season and led the Warriors 3-2 in the Western Conference finals, before Chris Paul missed Games 6 and 7, which Golden St won. While last year's MVP James Harden had another MVP-like season this year (36.1-6.6-7.5), the Rockets finished a much more modest 53-29, leaving them with the No. 4 seed in the West. In fact, the Rockets had the No. 3 seed in its sights in their final game of the regular season, before OKC came back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to nip Houston at the buzzer, 112-11.The Jazz followed last year's 48-34 record by going 50-32 this season, entering the playoffs as the West's No. 5 seed for the second straight year (Utah ousted No. 4 seed OKC last year in six games). The Rockets then handled the Jazz fairly easily in the second round of last season's playoffs, taking the series 4-1 with Houston's wins coming by 14, 21, 13 and 10 points. The teams split four regular-season meetings this season, with each team recording one road victory. The Jazz have an excellent starting-five in leading scorer Mitchell (23.8-4.1-4.,2), PG Rubio (12.7 & 6.1 APG), swingman Ingles (12.1-4.0-5.7), PF Favors (11.8 & 7.4) and center Gobert (15.9 & 12.9). However, Favors missed five of the team's last six games and Rubio (quadriceps) missed the final three games of the regular season (he is expected to give it a go in Game 1). Mitchell sat out the team's final regular season with a back issue and while it's hard to imagine he's not playing, he is being listed as questionable. Also, Korver (9.1 PPG off the bench) has missed the last six games with a knee injury. As noted, Harden could win a second straight MVP and is joined by Gordon (16.2) and Paul (15.6-4.6-8.2) to give Houston quite the guard trio. Both House (9.4) and Green (9.2) are also dangerous perimeter players (swingmen), who have been known to "light it up." Then there is center Clint Capela, who averaged career highs in points (16.6) and rebounds (12.7). He missed 15 games with a thumb injury (team went 5-1) but after he returned and after Houston lost his first game back (right after the All Star break), the Rockets won 20 of their final 24 games. Another major addition was PF/C Faried, who in 25 games down the stretch with Houston, averaged 12.9 & 8.2. The Jazz have too many health-related question marks entering this series to take them in Game 1. Houston's only losses in their last 24 games came by two points at home to Golden St, by one-point in OT at Memphis, by six points at Milwaukee (owners of the NBA's best record) and then that one-point disaster in Game 82 at OKC. The Rockets want that rematch with Golden St and will get it a round earlier than they had hoped but first they need to take care of business vs the Jazz. I always take the playoffs (and each series) one game at a time and off of last year's results, I really like the Rockets here in Game 1. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
04-14-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 3:30 ET. The Blazers opened March 1-3 but won 14 of their last 17 games to clinch the No. 3 in the West at 53-29 (edged the Rockets in a tie-breaker). The Thunder seemed headed for the West's No. 8 seed (and a first-round series with the Warriors) but OKC ended the season on a five-game winning streak to finish 49-33, one game better than the Spurs (No. 7) and Clippers (No. 8). The series will feature star PGs Damian Lillard (25.8-4.6-8.9) and Russell Westbrook (22.9-11.1-10.7). Lillard averaged 34.8 points and 7.8 assists while Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the teams' four regular season games. However, OKC took all FOUR of the regular season meetings. Paul George (28.0-8.2-4.1), not Westbrook, led the team in scoring this season. However, he is struggling with right shoulder soreness. He insists that he will play in the opener. George was superb against Portland in the regular season with averages of 38 points and 10.5 rebounds and said the postseason is no time to sit with an injury. "It's playoff time, so it's more than this, it's about being out there with my guys," George told reporters. "As much as I can get it a hundred (percent) as possible, or close to it, you can expect me out there Sunday." Portland has a key player with an injury question as well. Lillard's backcourt partner CJ McCollum (21.0) missed 10 games late in the season with a knee injury and didn't fare well upon his return, averaging 10.0 PPG in two games before being rested in the season finale. He made just 8-of-26 shots (30.1%), including 2-of-11 form three-point range. "I feel good, I feel like I'm ready to play, looking forward to the playoffs," McCollum told reporters. "I'm glad I was able to get back and get a couple of games in, get a few game minutes in before the playoffs start. ... My wind is fine, no minutes restrictions." The season-ending ending injury to Portland center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) was expected to be a 'killer,' but Enes Kanter has been a 'savior,' averaging 13.1 & 8.6 in his 23 games for the Blazers (team went 18-5 in those game). Portland will rely on Kanter to combat OKC center Steven Adams (13.8 & 9.5), his former Thunder teammate. A closer look at OKC's closing five-game winning streak revels wins over the Lakers, Pistons and T-wolves (no big deal there), the team's miracle comeback from 14 down vs Houston and a season-ending win at Milwaukee, when the Bucks rested all their starters. Just prior to that stretch, OKC had gone 7-13 SU and a money-burning 5-15 ATS in its previous 20 games. As noted above, Portland closed its season on a 14-3 SU run, including eight straight home wins. Average winning margin in Portland's last 14 victories was 11.0 PPG. Forget the regular season, Portland was 32-9 SU at home, averaging 118.2 PPG with an average winning margin of just shy of nine points per. The Blazers win this one with "room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,310 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Joey Tron | $512 |
Ross Benjamin | $483 |
Ricky Tran | $405 |
Jimmy Boyd | $370 |
Sean Murphy | $269 |
Sean Higgs | $214 |
Kyle Hunter | $176 |
Mike Lundin | $162 |