01-15-20 |
Virginia v. Florida State OVER 113.5 | Top | 50-54 |
Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on UVA/FSU Over at 7:00 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. However, the defending champs have lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2017, falling 60-53 at BC on Jan 7 and then 63-55 (OT) at home to Syracuse on Jan 11. The 11-4 Cavs fell out of the AP's latest top-25 poll on Monday and will look to avoid a three-game slide when they pay a visit to No. 9 Florida State. The Seminoles are 14-2and have won THREE of their last five meetings with Virginia, including a 69-59 win in last year’s ACC tournament semifinals. Florida State has won SEVEN straight games, most recently winning at then-No. 7 Louisville 78-65 on Jan 4 and following that with a second straight road win, 76-68 at Wake Forest on Jan 8.
The Cavaliers still lead the nation in scoring defense (48.7 PPG) and field goal percentage defense (34.6%), but are struggling on the offensive end while connecting on 39.9 percent of their shots from the floor. Virginia shot a season-low 31.3 percent from the floor against Syracuse and made only SEVEN of its season-high 31 three-point attempts (22.6 percent). 6-9 senior forward Mamadi Diakite leads the team in scoring (12.9), but has managed just 8.3 PPG over the past four. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.5 & 7.7) and 5-9 PG Clark (10.1-4.5-5.9). The 7-1 Huff (8.9 & 6.1) joins Diatka up front and this "Core 4" is basically Virginia's team this season.
Leonard Hamilton-coached teams are always known for playing excellent defense but his teams have shown more offensive 'punch' the last few seasons. That's continued in the 2019-20 season, as the Seminoles are holding opponents to 63.4 PPG, but are also scoring 76.4 PPG, The Seminoles wear down teams with their depth and balance on offense, as the top-four scorers produce between 8.8 and 12.3 PPG. Sophomore guard Devin Vassell has averaged 15 points the last three games and now leads the team at 12.3 PPG, just ahead of senior guard Trent Forrest (12.2-3.9-3.9), who notched his first double-double of the season against Wake Forest (14 points & 10 rebounds). Junior guard M.J. Walker combined to score 38 points in his last two games and is third on the team at 11.6 PPG. The 6-8 Williams (8.8 & 3.3) ranks fourth on the team in scoring, while the 6-9 Osborne (6.4 & 5.2) and guard Polite (6.1) are also regular contributors.
The Cavs are only averaging 55.7 PPG and as of Monday, the only Division I schools putting fewer points on the board were Maryland-Eastern Shore (54.3) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (52.1). That said, if UVA only reaches its average, this game should have little trouble 'flying' over. As noted, FSU is averaging 76.4 PPG and is 8-0 at home this season and has won its last four conference games by double-digit margins. The Seminoles lead the ACC in free throw shooting (75.9 percent), which is a bonus if the game is close. What's more, FSU last played Jan 8, giving the team a nice, but NOT too long, 'breather.' The Seminoles have played 16 games and just TWO, over/under numbers have closed at less than 130 points (opening total here was 111). I expect UVA to bring its "A" game in this one (remembering that loss to FSU in the ACC tourney, while looking to avoid a THIRD straight loss) and while I'm not convinced that will be good enough for a "W," I do expect this final to be in the 130s.
Good luck...Larry
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01-15-20 |
Tennessee v. Georgia -2.5 | Top | 63-80 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Georgia at 7:00 ET.
A pair of 10-5 SEC teams square off Wednesday night, as the Tennessee Vols (2-1 in the SEC) visit Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs. Both teams lost FOUR starters from last season but Tennessee won 31 games last season (made it to the Sweet 16), while Georgia finished a woeful 11-21, including 2-16 in SEC play! Considering those facts, it's fair to say that Georgia's 10-5 start to the current season is VASTLY superior to Tennessee's similar start.
Rick Barnes lost plenty from last year's team, most notably, two-time SEC player of the year, Grant Williams. However, he was set to rebuild around veteran guards Turner and Bowden, a pair of promising freshman plus 6-9 junior Fulkerson. However, senior PG Lamonte Turner (12.3-3.5-7.1) has been lost for the season after shoulder surgery. The good news is, freshman guard Santiago Vescovi surprisingly became eligible in December and he's averaged 14.3-4.3-3.0 in three games. Veteran guards Bowden (11.8 & 4.20 and Pons (11.1 & 5.0) are both in double figures, as is the 6-9 Fulkerson (11.4 & 5.4). 6-6 freshman Jordan-Jones (8.1 & 6.0) and 6-9 freshman Nkamhoua (4.3 & 4.1) are both seeing significant playing time.
Georgia is led by 6-5 freshman guard Anthony Edwards, who ranks third in the SEC in scoring at 18.7 PPG (also adds 4.8 RPG and 3.1 APG). Fellow freshman, PG Wheeler, adds 8.4 & 5.0 APG plus senior guards Crump (7.8) and Gresham (6.7 & 5.1) give Georgia an excellent perimeter group. 6-9 junior forward/center Rayshaun Hammonds averages 13.6 points and 8.7 rebounds. Georgia's lone home loss (Bulldogs are 8-1 SU at Stegeman Coliseum) this season is at the hands of Kentucky and Tennessee is NO Kentucky. The Bulldogs have won their last five meetings at home with the Vols. Make that their last SIX!
Good luck...Larry
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01-15-20 |
Creighton v. Georgetown -3 | Top | 80-83 |
Push | 0 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Crusher (Big East) is on Georgetown at 7:00 ET.
Greg McDermott is in his 10th season as head coach of Creighton. He arrived in 2010-11 and led the Bluejays to a runner-up finish in the CBI. Three straight NCAA teams followed, as Creighton won 29, 28 and 27 games. His lone losing season came in 2014-15 but Creighton's won 20-plus games the last four years, with two NCAA appearances and two in the NIT. Creighton is 13-4 (2-2 in Big East) this season and Monday, entered the AP poll (at No. 25) for the first time this season. This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news entering the current season was, FOUR starters returned. Georgetown is 11-6 but 1-3 in Big East play.
Creighton opened the season starting a trio of guards and all three are scoring in double digits. Marcus Zegarowski (17.1 & 4.8 APG) and Ty-Shon Alexander (16.0 & 56.1) have led the way, while Mitch Ballock is adding 12.6 & 5.5). Joining that trio in the starting lineup are forwards Bishop (9.0 & 5.9) and Jefferson (8.4 & 5.3) while the 6-11 Jones (4.8 & 4.3) and guard Mitchell (4.3) come off the bench. Creighton has also gotten a HUGE boost now that highly touted 6-5 guard Denzel Mahoney became eligible in mid-December. He averaged 19.3 PPG for Southeast Missouri State (2nd-most on the OVC) back in 2017-18. He's played seven games and is averaging 10.6 & 3.7.
Govan averaged 17.5 & 7.5 in making the all-Big East first team and was a big loss for the Hoyas. The key returnee is 7-0 senior Yurtseven (16.5 & 9.7) and is Georgetown's best player this season. The Hoyas began the season starting three guards, Akinjo, McClung and Mosley (7.5 & 3.3) . Akinjo (13.4 & 4.4 APG) played seven games but decided to transfer. McClung is averaging 15.9 PPG and Mosley 6.9-4.4-3.4. Joining up front to start the season were the 6-8 Pickett and the 6-7 LeBlanc. Pickett is averaging 9.4 & 6.) but like Akinjo, Leblanc (7.2 PPG) is transferring. Guards Blair (7.6) and Allen (6.9) have made up for the loss of Akinjo.
6-11 freshman center Qudus Wahab has been trying to establish himself as a regular contributor for the Hoyas and may have enjoyed a breakthrough against Villanova. He set career highs with six field goals and 13 points, only the second game in double figures in his career, in just 15 minutes of action. Wahab, Pickett and of course, Yurtseven will be key in helping the Hoyas control the boards. Georgetown's backcourt is deep and should be able to contend with Creighton's excellent perimeter trio. Creighton has dominated the series lately but the Bluejays can be had on the road. I'm calling for a Hoyas win, which will make Creighton's stay in the top-25, short-lived.
Good luck...Larry
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01-12-20 |
Arizona v. Oregon State +4.5 | Top | 65-82 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Oregon St at 10:00 ET.
Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. Arizona began the week Ranked 24th in the AP but despite leading most of the way against No. 9 Oregon on Thursday night (up six points with less than two minutes to go), the Wildcats lost 74-73 in OT. Arizona visits Corvallis tonight at 11-4, including 1-1 in the Pac-12.
Oregon State head coach Wayne Tinkle got great news when both 6-7 senior Tres Tinkle (his son) and junior guard Ethan Thompson both decided to come back this season and play for the Beavers. Oregon State’s 10-2 start in non-conference play matched the 1989-90, 2011-12 and 2015-16 teams for the program’s best start in 35 years but the Beavers are 1-2 to open conference play, after losing 82-76 Thursday night at home to Arizona St. Oregon State looks to knock off a top-25 team for the first time since 2016 when it hosts No. 24 Arizona tonight
Arizona's freshman class includes the 6-11 Zeke Nnaji (16.2 & 8.5) plus PG Nico Mannion (14.7 & 6.1 APG) and fellow guard Josh Green (13.3 & 5.2). 6-10 senior center Chase Jeter was expected to have a big year but he's averaging fewer points (8.1) and rebounds (5.5) than last year (10.9 & 6.6). In fact, Miller benched Jeter, who went 0-for-3 with one rebound in 12 minutes, with over 13 minutes to go in regulation at Oregon. "He didn't get it done," Miller said. "We're only playing guys who are going to help us win the game, and if you're not up to the task, we're moving on to the next player. ... We went tonight with the guys we thought gave us a chance to win. And we had a chance to win." Nanji finished with 11 points and 14 rebounds in Thursday's loss, while point guard Mannion had 20 points but also committed six turnovers.
Talk about a coach being unhappy with his team's effort, see Wayne Tinkle. He was very upset with his team's defense and focus after Arizona State, which was just 3-of-21 from three-point range in its loss to Arizona last week, shot 48.3 percent from the floor, including 8-of-16 from behind the arc. The Beavers also got outrebounded, 38-31. "For whatever reason, we didn't come out with the focus and fire, and that's my job," Tinkle said after the game. "That's my No. 1 job. Didn't happen tonight, and that's on me." Tinkle (19.9-6.9-3.7) and Thompson (16.7-4.4-4.5) finished with 22 points in Thursday's loss. Tinkle is joined in the frontcourt by the 7-0 Kelley (11.1 & 4.9) and the 6-6 Hollins (6.1 & 3.6), while Reiche (9.4) starts in the backcourt with Thompson.
Oregon State's last win over a top-25 team came back on Jan 24, 2016 against No. 21 USC, 85-70. Isn't it about time for Oregon St to break through? The Beavers were 7-0 at Gill Coliseum before losing to ASU, where they were averaging 81.3 PPG. Arizona blew its game at Oregon but got eked out the cover as a three-point dog. Here, the Wildcats are a the road favorite and prior to the Oregon game, Arizona was 0-5 ATS this season in games away from the McKale center (road or neutral). Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one!
Good luck...Larry
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01-12-20 |
Wichita State -2.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 89-86 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on Wichita St at 12:00 ET.
Gregg Marshall led Winthrop to seven NCAA appearances in nine seasons and since taking over in Wichita, entered this season with a string of 10 consecutive seasons of 22 or more wins, including FOUR, 30-win seasons. In that 10-year span, the Shockers have been to seven NCAA tourneys (including a Final 4 appearance in 2013) and in three NITs (won title in 2011). Wichita State is 14-1 (2-0 AAC) to open teh current season and travels to Hartford's XL Center ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. The Shockers opened their Thursday game vs No. 21 Memphis with a 17-4 burst but needed to hold off the Tigers down the stretch in a 76-67 victory. Danny Hurley is in hsi second season at Stoors and his first (16-17) didn't go any better as UConn's two previous season (16 and 14 wins). The Huskies have been through an up-and-down campaign thus far but they are off a 67-61 home victory over Tulane on Wednesday, the team's first league win (UConn is 10-5 overall and 1-2 in AAC play).
The key for Wichita St has been balance, as EIGHT players post between 6.2 and 13.9 PPG. That depth was on display vs Memphis, as EIGHT different Shockers scored between six and 16 points. Sophomore guard Erik Stevenson is the team’s leading scorer at 13.9 PPG, while adding 5.4 RPG. The other starters are guards Burton (10.9-3.3-3.9) and Etienne (10.5), along with the 6-11 Echenique (9.4 & 4.9) and the 6-6 Wade (8.6 & 6.7), a transfer from UTEP. Guards Sherfield (9.3) and Dennis (6.6 & 4.3) plus the 6-8 Udeze (6.2 & 3.8) provide excellent depth.
Senior guard Christian Vital had an off night shooting Wednesday (3-for-11) but still finished with 14 points and is averaging team highs of 13.5 points and 6.9 rebounds while his 2.4 steals per game were 21st in the country entering Saturday. He's the ONLY player in double digits but FOUR players are averaging between 9.3 and 9.7 PPG. The 6-11 Calhoun (9.7 & 6.5) and the 6-7 Polley (9.5 & 3.2) play up front, with freshman Bouknight (9.3) and PG Gilbert (9.3 & 4.9 APG) joining Vital on the perimeter. The Huskies are the nation’s best team at blocking shots (7.2) and that's thanks to 6-9 redshirt freshman Akok Akok (6.7 & 6.3), who is averaging 3.07, best in the conference and ninth-best nationally
The Huskies have struggled offensively and their 67-61 win Wednesday over Tulane marked the fourth consecutive game in which they failed to reach 70 points. Wichita State hit its low point with a 20-point road defeat to UConn last season but the Shockers have gone 28-5 since, including victories in their last eight games. Wichita St has won SEVEN straight true road games, the nation’s second-longest behind Gonzaga’s 13. Wichita St has averaged 79.6 PPG in its eight-game winning streak and its lone loss this season has been to West Va, which is now 13-2 and headed towards a top-10 ranking. UConn 'limps' in averaging 61.8 PPG over its last four games and is looking forward to next season, when it will rejoin the Big East. The Huskies will be glad to get the Shockers off their conference schedule, Blowout alert!
Good luck...Larry
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01-11-20 |
Florida -3 v. Missouri | Top | 75-91 |
Loss | -109 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Game of the Year (SEC) is on Florida at 8:30 ET.
Expectations were high for Florida entering this season, as the Gators were able to get the most sought after graduate on the market in the 6-10 Kerry Blackshear. The Orlando native played at Va Tech but when Tech head coach Buzz Williams left for A&M, Balckshear decide to 'come home.' The Gators were ranked 6th in both preseason polls but Florida opened 2-2 and by Christmas, sat a hugely disappointing 7-4. Missouri is Counzo Martin's fourth 'stop' (Missouri St, Tennessee and Cal) and his first two seasons at Columbia have been been derailed by injuries to the Porter brothers. Michael Porter was the consensus No. 2 recruit in the 2017 class but missed all but TWO minutes of the 2017-18 season. He left for the NBA prior to the 2018-19 season but his brother, Jontay, did NOT follow him. Jontay had helped Missouri to 20 wins in 2017-18 and an NCAA berth. However, Jontay would miss all of last season after tearing his ACL in October.
Florida's non-conference play has been a disappointment but the Gators wrapped up that portion of that schedule with a 102-63 home rout of Long Beacgh St on Dec 28, before opening SEC play 2-0. They defeated Alabama 104-98 in double-overtime at home and then won handily 81-68 at South Carolina. Sophomore PG Andrew Nembhard (11.4 & 6.1 APG) has come up big coming up with a career-high 25 points in the comeback win over Alabama, then followed with his first ever double-double (21 points & 10 assists) against South Carolina. Kerry Blackshear Jr. remains the team's leading scorer (14.6) and rebounder (8.7), but he played just 20 minutes against South Carolina due to foul trouble, although he still scored 11 points and pulled down five rebounds. Nembhard wasn't the only Gator to post big numbers against South Carolina, as SF Keyontae Johnson (13.4 & 6.9) registered a game-high 19 points and eight rebounds, while freshman Scottie Lewis (9.2) returned to the starting lineup and came away with 15 points and nine rebounds.Joining Newbhard and Lewis on the perimeter are Locke (9.90, Mann (5.4) and Glover (5.2).
The Tigers are just 8-6 on the season (0-2 in the SEC), despite holding opponents to just 57.7 PPG (6th-best in the nation). Missouri has held each one of its opponents to 56 points of less in its EIGHT wins. Dru Smith (11.3-4.4-4.2) and Mark Smith (11.1 & 4.7) are the team's lone double digit scorers but both have struggled in Missouri's two SEC contests, combining for just 31 points and 12 rebounds. Up front, I'm not so sure that the 6-10 Tilmon (9.0 & 4.3) matches up very well with Blackshear.
Florida was obviously rated too high at the start of the season but this team has the talent to make some 'noise' come March. Florida leads the series with Missouri 7-2, with the Gators winning FOUR straight, including a 64-60 victory last February. No revenge here for Missouri, as Florida moves to 3-0 in the SEC and Missouri to 0-3.
Good luck...Larry
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01-11-20 |
Wisconsin v. Penn State -3.5 | Top | 58-49 |
Loss | -109 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Penn St at 2:15 ET.
Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and while the Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team, the Badgers have a solid returning core. The Badgers got off to a disappointing 5-5 start but looked to be heading in the right direction in reeling off four straight wins, including a 61-57 road upset of then-No. 5 Ohio State on Jan 3. However, Wisconsin dropped a 71-70 home decision to Illinois on Thursday, as a 4 1/2-point favorite. Penn St won the NIT back in 2018 (26 wins) but fell off badly last season, finishing 14-18 (7-13 in the Big Ten). However, the Nittany Lions returned FOUR starters and have impressed so far this season, checking in at 12-3. Penn St entered the AP poll back on Dec 16 (at No. 23), giving the school its first top-25 ranking since March of 1996. Sounds impressive, right? It's even more so when one realizes that Penn St's previous top-25 ranking (to 1996) came back in 1954!
The Badgers saw their 15-game winning streak against Illinois come to an end on Thursday. Guard Kobe King scored a game-high 21 points on 10-of-13 shooting from the floor and the 6-10 Micah Potter narrowly missed out on a double-double (13 & 9). The 6-11 Reuvers (14.3 & 5.6) is not Happ but he's an excellent big man. He played poorly vs Illinois though, scoring just seven points . The 6-8 Ford (9.2 & 4.1) plus the Potter (6.6 & 5.2) join Reuvers up front. A quartet of guards round out Wisconsin's seven-man rotation. King (10.9) and Trice (10.1 & 4.2) crack double digits, while Davison (8.5 & 4.1) and Pitzl (8.0) are close behind.
No. 23 Penn St took its first loss as a ranked team this season, falling 72-61 at Rutgers on Tuesday night. The Nittany Lions were undone by a 36.1 shooting performance from the floor The 6-8 Stevens (16.1 & 6.9) and the 6-9 Watkins (11.1 & 8.8) are an excellent frontcourt duo, while Penn St has depth on the perimeter with Myeron Jones (14.3), Brockington (10.5), Dread (8.3) and Curtis Jones (7.5).
Penn St has lost SEVEN in a row to Wisconsin but this year's Badger team is vulnerable. The Big Ten has been heavily home-oriented so far and the Nittany Lions enter this contest having won 13 straight at home. Make that 14 in a row and it comes with "room to spare!"
Good luck..Larry
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01-10-20 |
Butler -1.5 v. Providence | Top | 70-58 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Butler at 9:00 ET. Butler has had a 'rich' recent history on the basketball court. The Bulldogs made six NCAA trips from 1997-2007, before Brad Stevens took them to FIVE tourneys in six years, including back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2010 and 2011. Chris Holtmann led Butler to three straight NCAA appearances from 2015-17 and LaVell Jordan followed with an NCAA berth in 2018 but the Bulldogs finished just 16-17 last season. However, Butler opened 7-0 and on Dec 2 entered the AP poll at No. 24, ending a span of 43 consecutive polls on "the outside, looking in!'This past Monday, the 14-1 Bulldogs moved to No. 6 in teh latest AP poll, the school's highest-ranking ever! Providence is coming off an 18-16 season but returned all FIVE starters. Expectations were high for Ed Cooley's team but the Friars opened just 6-6. However, Providence has become a totally different team over the last three weeks. The Friars knocked off Texas 70-48 four days before Christmas and followed by ripping off three straight wins to open Big East play. Providence easily beat Georgetown 70-60 at home but then won 66-65 at 12-3 DePaul and 81-80 (OT) at 11-4 Marquette. Butler's lone loss came at now-No. 4 Baylor, 53-52 back on Dec 10. Senior guard Kamar Baldwin (14.7 & 4.3) was hampered by an ankle injury this past Saturday but despite missing his first NINE shots against Creighton, he finished 20 points (all in the second half). 6-6 senior forward Sean McDermott adds 11.8 PPG (on 54.5 percent shooting) and 5.5 RPG. PG Thompson (7.1-3.7-5.3) joins Baldwin in the backcourt, while a trio of frontcourt players are 'making noise' up front with McDermott. The group includes the 6-7 Nze (9.8 & 7.1), the 6-7 Tucker (8.5 & 3.4) and the 6-9 Golden (7.9 & 3.5). The team's six-man rotation is solid but the team's overall defense has been special, allowing just 54.1 PPG (4th-best in the nation). 6-7 senior Alpha Diallo leads a balanced Seton Hall offense with 13.6 PPG. What's more, he also leads the team in rebounding (8.9) and as Cooley notes, he can defend FOUR positions. Sophomore guard David Duke scored 12 on Tuesday to boost his season average to 11.8 (he's the only other double digit scorer). However, SIX others chip in between 4.9 and 9.8 PPG. 6-9 junior center Nate Watson (9.8 & 4.2) is at the top of that group and is shooting 50.5 percent from the floor. Senior PG Luwane Pipkins (9.3 & 4.2 APG) is also worth noting. Then there is senior guard Maliek White, who averaged 17.5 points in the two one-point wins at DePaul and Marquette, NINE more than his season mark of 8.5 PPG. Kudos to Providence's recent run but Butler's been a 'force' all season. This Butler team is battle-tested and relies on a tough defense to win games, limiting its last two conference teams -- Creighton and St. John's -- to 18 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Throw in that Butler is playing with "triple-revenge" from last season and the Bulldogs are the play.. Good luck...Larry |
01-10-20 |
Maryland v. Iowa +2 | Top | 49-67 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Conference G.O.Y. (Big Ten) is on Iowa at 7:00 ET.
Maryland returned four starters from last year's 23-11 NCAA team (lost in the 2nd round) and Mark Turgeon's team was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll. The Terps opened 10-0 and were ranked No. 4 when they lost Dec 10 at Penn St. Maryland lost its next game as well (at Seton Hall on Dec 19) but visits the Hawkeye State tonight off one of its best wins of the season. The No. 12 Terrapins (13-2) beat No. 11 Ohio St 67-55 on Tuesday to notch their first victory over a ranked opponent in 2019-20. "Those two losses kind of brought us back to ground level," Maryland guard Eric Ayala told reporters. "We needed that little punch in the mouth and I think we're back in the hunt trying to get back to our spot." As for 10-5 Iowa, the Hawkeyes are heading in the wrong direction. Iowa had won four consecutive games to climb into the national rankings at 10-3 ()No. 23). However, the Hawkeyes have dropped their first two contests of the calendar year, losing 89-86 to Penn St (in Philly) and 76-70 at Nebraska.
Maryland lost the 6-10 Fernando and his double-double average (13.6 & 10.6) but the core of last year's team is back. PG Cowan (16.7 & 4.1 APG) and the 6-10 Smith (13.3 & 9.7) are the top contributors but guards Wiggins (10.9 & 6.2) and Ayala (9.90 plus SF Morsell (8.7 & 5.3) are quality players. Maryland's only true road game was its loss at Seton Hall, although Penn St surely had teh home crowd on its side playing in Philly (not Happy Valley).
Head coach Fran McCaffrey came to Iowa back in the 2010-11 season (off three straight NCAA trips with Siena). His 2013 team was the NIT runner-up and he then led the Hawkeyes to three straight NCAAs. Iowa missed the "Big Dance" the next two years but last year's 23-win team was back in. The 6-11 Garza (22.1 & 10.7) is the team's best player but his only help up front comes from the 6-10 Kriener (7.7 & 4.3). However, Iowa's perimeter group is 'deep,' led by Wieskamp (14.0 & 5.9), Fredrick (10.3), Bohannon (8.8), Toussaint (7.5) and McCaffrey's son, Connor (7.3 & 4.0). Garza (16 & 18) recorded his ninth double of the season at Nebraska, becoming the 27th player in program history to join the 1,000-point, 500-rebound club. Joe Toussaint produced 14 points, six rebounds and four assists but freshman guard C.J. Fredrick is likely to miss his second consecutive game with a foot injury (Iowa perimeter depth will help).
Maryland is beginning a key stretch in which four of its next five games are on the road and as noted above, the Terps have played just ONE true road game this season. Carver-Hawkeye Arena is known for its hostile crowds and is a tough venue (Iowa is 24-5 SU the last two seasons at home). Coming off back-to-back losses, Iowa is in NEED of a win and is catching Maryland off its win over Ohio St. Iowa is a small home underdog but this will be NO upset.
Good luck...Larry
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01-09-20 |
BYU v. St. Mary's -2.5 | | 84-87 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on St Mary's at 11:00 ET.
There may come a time when people start to take note of the WCC. 16-1 Gonzaga is rthe AP's No. 1 ranked team but look at the current standings. Santa Clara is 14-2, St Mary's 14-3, Pacific 14-4 and BYU 12-4. Not bad, right? The BYU Cougars visit St Mary's on a SIX-game winning streak, while the Gaels saw their five-game winning streak end Saturday night in a 107-99 four-overtime heart-breaker at Pacific.
BYU's winning run pretty much coincides with the return from a nine-game suspension of the 6-7 Yoeli Childs. He's posted four double-doubles in his seven games, checking in at 20.9 PPG and 10.1 RPG. The 6-7 Nixon (8.0 & 4.8) starts up front with him, while a trio of guards join the starting lineup. All three are scoring in double digits, led by Toolson (14.6-4.9-4.2). Haws (12.3 & 4.9 APG) and Barcello (10.1) complete the trio, while Harding (7.5 & 3.5) is a solid contributor off the bench.
St Mary's owns an excellent trio of guards as well, in Ford (21.6), Krebs (10.7 & 4.0) and Kuhse (6.6 & 3.8 APG). The 6-8 Fitts (15.8 & 8.0) is the Gaels' best big man and the 6-7 Fotu (3.9 & 2.5) will need to step up, as the 6-10 Tass (6.6 & 3.60 is out for the year with a knee injury.
St Mary's head coach Randy Bennett has led the Gaels for 18 years, winning 20-plus games in each of the last 12. The Gaels are coming off a season in which they finally beat Gonzaga in the WCC championship game, earning their 7th NCAA bid under Bennett. The previous season, St Mary's 28 wins were not enough to earn them an at-large NCAA bid.St Mary's NEEDS to win games like this to have ANY chance at consideration for an at-large bid come March. Expect the Gaels to bounce-back off that 4-OT loss at Pacific with a solid home win here.
Good luck...Larry
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01-09-20 |
Arizona State v. Oregon State -4.5 | Top | 82-76 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Crusher (Pac 12) is on Oregon St at 11:00 ET.
Bobby Hurley won two national titles as Duke's PG (1991 and 1992) but was always destine to get into the 'family business,' as his father is Bob Hurley, Sr, the legendary high school coach of St Anthony's (NJ). Hurley's first job was at Buffalo and in his second season, led the Bulls to an NCAA berth. He used that as springboard to take the Arizona St job in 2015-16. However, he opened with back-to-back losing season s(15 wins each year). Hurley's 2017-18 squad snuck into the "Big Dance" as a First Four team but the Sun Devils were back 'dancing' again last season, losing in the Round of 64 to finish 23-11. This year's team is 9-5 and 0-1 in Pac-12 play after a 'ugly' conference-opening 75-47 loss at Arizona on Saturday. Oregon State head coach Wayne Tinkle got great news when both 6-7 senior Tres Tinkle (his son) and junior guard Ethan Thompson both decided to come back this season and play for the Beavers. Oregon State’s 10-2 start in non-conference play matched the 1989-90, 2011-12 and 2015-16 teams for the program’s best start in 35 years but the Beavers lost their conference opener last Thursday, 81-69 at Utah. Oregon State then found itself trailing host Colorado 53-41 with a little more than 13 minutes remaining on Sunday, before the Beavers got back in the game using a full-court trap and outscored the Buffaloes 24-5 down the stretch for a 76-68 road win.
Taking a look at the stat sheet from the loss to Arizona reveals that the Sun Devils shot 30.5 percent from the floor, including 3-of-21 three-pointers. ASU missed 11 of 19 free-throw attempts and were outscored 50-18 in the paint and 25-9 on fast-break points. Other than that, the team played well. PG Remy Martin (18.1-3.6-3.9) and fellow guard Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.5) are the leading scorers plus get help on the perimeter from Edwatrds (8.6) and House (6.9). The team's best big men are a pair of 6-8 forwards, White (10.7 & 9.7) and Cherry (5.2 & 2.5). NEITHER player scored against Arizona. White went scoreless in 24 minutes due to limitations of an ankle injury, while Cherry played 17 scoreless minutes.
Ethan Thompson (16.4-4.6-4.6) scored a game-high 24 points in the win at Colorado. “It’s always a great feeling to get a road win in the Pac-12, just because it’s such an in-depth conference,” he said after the game. “It’s a big lift for us." Do-it-all forward Tres Tinkle (19.7-6.9-3.9) is living up to his high senior-season expectations. He's joined in the frontcourt by the 7-0 Kelley (11.1 & 4.9) and the 6-6 Hollins (6.2 & 3.5), while Reiche (9.6) starts in the backcourt with Thompson.
Can ASU bounce back from that 'nightmare' performance at Tuscon? The Sun Devils are shooting a woeful 29.3% on threes (325th) and other than White (see above), no ASU player is averaging more than 3.8 rebounds (Sun Devils who rank last in the Pac-12 in rebound margin at minus-3.1). As noted, White has a gimpy ankle and we can't be sure how effective he will be. Meanwhile, Tinkle is averaging 23.4 points and 8.6 rebounds, while shooting 55.3 percent from three-point range in the Beavers’ seven home games. OSU is 7-0 at Gill Coliseum, where the Beavers are averaging 81.3 PPG. Throw in some "double revenge" motivation from TWO, three-point losses to the Sun Devils last season, and expect the Beavers to win this one "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry |
01-09-20 |
Memphis v. Wichita State -4 | Top | 67-76 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Wichita St at 7:00 ET.
Penny Hardaway's first season as head coach of his alma mater (Memphis) resulted in a 22-win season. The Tigers lost all FIVE starters from that team but they were replaced by what most considered the best recruiting class of the 2019-20 season. However, the 'jewel' of that class, the 7-1 James Wiseman, was the center of an NCAA investigation and after just three games (19.7 & 10.7), Wiseman was 'done.' He decide to NOT fight anymore and is currently preparing for the next NBA Draft. Memphis lost Wiseman's final game back on Nov 12 to Oregon but the team made up almost entirely by freshmen and sophomores had won 10 in a row before suffering a 65-62 home defeat against Georgia on Saturday .The 12-2 Tigers are currently ranked 21st as they visit the Charles Koch Arena In Wichita to take on the 13-1 Shockers, who are ranked 23rd. Gregg Marshall led Winthrop to seven NCAA appearances in nine seasons and since taking over in Wichita, entered this season with a string of 10 consecutive seasons of 22 or more wins, including FOUR, 30-win seasons. In that 10-year span, the Shockers have been to seven NCAA tourneys (including a Final 4 appearance in 2013) and in three NITs (won title in 2011).
Without Wiseman, two freshman forwards have led the way. The 6-9 Achiuwa leads in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (10.2), while the 6-7 Jeffries (12.0 & 4.7) is the team's second-leading scorer. A group of FIVE guards chip in between 6.3 to 11.0 PPG. Freshman guard Quinones leads that group (11.0), while sophomores Harris (8.8) and PG Lomax (8.6-3.8-4.7) follow closely. Jeffries missed the Georgia game due to illness (flu) and Memphis endured a lengthy scoring drought late in the game, as the Tigers tired down the stretch. Memphis did not make a field goal for more than four minutes to close the 65-62 loss. "I hate playing five or six guys so many minutes," Memphis coach Penny Hardaway said in his postgame press conference. "Precious (Achiuwa), Boogie (Ellis), Damion (Baugh), Lester (Quinones) and (Alex Lomax) played the bulk of the minutes."
Wichita's lone loss came back in late Nov, when the Shockers lost 75-63 to West Va in the Cancun Classic championship game (note: West Va is 12-2 and ranked 17th). The Shockers have no real star but own great balance, as SIX players are averaging at least eight points. The starters are guards are Stevenson (14.1-5.5), Burton (14.5-3.8-3.9) and Etienne (10.5), along with the 6-11 Echenique ( 9.6 & 5.1) and the 6-6 Wade (8.8 & 6.8), a transfer from UTEP. Guards Sherfield (9.3) and Dennis (6.5 & 4.0) plus the 6-8 Udeze (6.2 & 3.6) provide excellent depth.
Jeffries is said to be feeling better but his roommate, freshman guard Damion Baugh (6.3 & 3.8 APG), also reportedly missed practice Monday and Tuesday because of the flu. That hardly bodes well as the Tigers take on a Wichita St team that has ripped off SEVEN straight wins since its lone loss of the season and enters 11-0 at home, so far. The Shockers are playing with "double revenge" from last season and in fact, Wichita's last home loss was to Memphis, 88-85 back on 2/23/19 (Shockers have won 13 straight at home, since). Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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01-08-20 |
Oklahoma v. Texas -2 | Top | 72-62 |
Loss | -109 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Texas at 9:00 ET.
Oklahoma/Texas is one of CFB's greatest rivalries and while the basketball version can not match the one on the gridiron, it's not 'chopped liver,' either. the two schools enter with identical 10-3 records, although the Sooners are 1-0 to open Big 12 play, while the Longhorns are 0-1. lON Kruger returned an excellent duo from last year's NCAA team in the 6-7 Doolittle and the 6-9 Manek plus added an excellent guard in Austin Reaves, who transferred from Wichita St. Texas won last year's NIT but gone are big men Osetkowski (11.1 & 7.2) and Hayes (10.0 & 5.0), who was a one-and-done (8th overall pick of the 2019 draft by Atlanta). Guard Roach was suspended THREE different times in his stay at Austin but he ended his Texas career by being named the NIT's most outstanding player.
The Sooners rallied from 11 points down in the second half to beat Kansas St 66-61 in their Big 12 opener last Saturday, as Austin Reaves scored 18 of his team-high 21 points in the final 11 minutes. Reaves was 4-for-8 from downtown on Saturday but the rest of his teammates went 1-for-15 on threes. The 6-7 Doolittle is Oklahoma's leading scorer (16.9) and rebounder (9.1). He did not play when the Sooners coasted to a 91-72 over Texas-Rio Grande Valley on Dec 30 (reason: a "conflict of team interests" per coach Lon Kruger) but he was back on the court against teh Wildcats, adding 19 points and 12 rebounds. Manek averages 14.9 & 6.5) and added nine points, as well as nine rebounds.The Sooners commit the sixth-fewest turnovers per game in the country (10.5), while also logging the sixth-fewest fouls (13.8).
While Oklahoma was staging a big comeback to open Big 12 play 1-0, Texas lost at now-No. 4 Baylor 59-44 on Saturday, The Longhorns were limited to a season-low in points, while converting just 3-of-16 from three-point range and ONLY 5-of-15 from the free throw line. Despite some key losses form last year's NIT champs (see above), Texas has an experienced group of players back. Depth on the perimeter is a strength, led by PG Coleman (12.3-3.9-4.5 and Jones (11.3), who has returned after a battle with leukemia. That duo is supported by Ramey (10.9-4.6-3.2) and Febres (10.2). Taking over up front for Osetkowski and Hayes are the 6-9 Sims (9.2 & 783). the 6-8 Liddell (4.8 & 3.7). Sims notched his second consecutive double-double – and third in 82 career games – as he finished with a season-best 13 points against Baylor while tying his career high with 15 rebounds.
Oklahoma is just 1-2 (0-3 ATS) on the road, while Texas is a PERFECT 7-0 at home. Texas has won all four of its home contests against Oklahoma during head coach Shaka Smart’s five-year tenure and is 18-5 all-time in Big 12 home openers. Smart wasn't hired at Austin to win the NIT and after opening 9-1 this season (now 10-3), a win here over rival Oklahoma would be a big deal. That's my bet!
Good luck...Larry
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01-08-20 |
UCF v. SMU -7 | Top | 74-81 |
Push | 0 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on SMU at 8:00 ET.
UCF went 24-9 last season, one which included the school's first-ever NCAA win, 73-58 over VCU. The Golden Knights then almost upset the Zion-led Duke Blue Devils, falling 77-76. It was quite a season for Johnny Dawkins, who has averaged 22.3 wins in his three years in Orlando. However, gone from last year's team are guards Taylor (15.9) and Dawkins (15.6) plus the 7-54 Tacko Fall (11.1 & 7.6). UCF is 9-5 so far this season, including 0-2 to open AAC play.
Tim Jankovich won 20-plus games in four of his five seasons at Illinois St, making four NIT appearances. He was announced as SMU's Associate Head Coach and coach-in-waiting in April of 2016 and then as head coach on July 8, 2016.. He's had to bear the the full force of NCAA sanctions due to Larry Brown's tenure but things are looking up this season. SMU breezed through a not-so-difficult non-conference schedule and its only two losses have come to Georgetown and Georgia. SMU opened league play with an 82-64 home win over USF and now welcomes UCF to Dallas at 11-2, overall.
The 6-11 Collin Smith (13.1 & 6.4) is UCF's best player, while six guards play 19-plus minutes and contribute from 5.7 to 10.5 PPG. The best of the group are DeJesus (10.5) and Ingram (9.6), who is a graduate transfer from Alabama. Ingram is a 6-6 PG but leads the team in rebounding (7.6) and assists (4.1). Some recent good news is that redshirt freshman Dre Fuller Jr. has scored in double figures in SIX of his last eight games. He had averaged just 3.8 points up to that point but is now at 7.5 PPG on the season..
Jankovich has two guards and two forwards making most of the contributions for his SMU team this season. PG Kendric Davis (a TCU transfer) owns a line of 16.0-4.6-7.3 and is joined in the backcourt by JC transfer Tyson Jolly (15.5 & 6.5). Then there are two 6-8 forwards, Isiaha Mike (15.9 & 7.5) and Feron Hunt (13.4 & 7.9). So far, the 6-9 Chargois, who averaged 12.4 & 6.2 last season, has under-performed (8.2 & 5.3).
The Mustangs have lost three straight against the Knights, including both contests in 2018-2019, but SMU should have little trouble with UCF in this one. UCF 'limps' in on a three-game losing streak, including its first two AAC contests, averaging only 57.7 PPG during that skid. Meanwhile, SMU is averaging 78.2 PPG on the season and is 8-1 SU at home, winning those eight games by a margin of 17.9 PPG. Blowout Alert!
Good luck...Larry
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01-08-20 |
Bradley v. Evansville +2.5 | Top | 72-52 |
Loss | -113 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Evansville at 7:00 ET.
The 10-5 Bradley Braves and the 9-6 Evansville Purple Aces meet in MVC action tonight at Evansville's Ford Center. Bradley won the MVC tourney last season, rallying from an 18-point deficit against Northern Iowa in the championship game. It was the Braves' first tourney title since 1988 and earned Bradley its first NCAA berth since 2006. Evansville is coming off an 11-21 season in head coach Walter McCarty's first season but got everyone's attention this season when teh Purple Aces upset Kentucky 67-64 at Rupp Arena back on Nov 12, as 24 1/2-point underdogs.
Bradley returns its top-three scorers from last season. The 6-7 Childs (14.2 & 9.1) and the 6-11 Bar (7.1 & 8.0) are back 'making noise' up front, while PG Brown (13.5 & 5.1 APG) is again, running the team. He's joined in the backcourt by Kennell (12.6 & 4.4), last season's MVC 6th-man of the year, and Kingsbury (8.6 & 5.1), an LSU transfer. The 6-6 Henry (7.4 & 3.1) helps out up front. Bradley looks to rebound after a 69-64 loss at Northern Iowa in its last outing, falling to 1-1 in MVC play.
Evansville opened 3-0 but then lost three straight. The Purple Aces then won FIVE in a row but enter this contest having lost THREE of four (0-2 to open MVC play). Evansville features four double digits scorers, three of whom are new additions. The 6-8 Williams didn't qualify academically last season but leads the team this year in scoring (16.9) and rebounding (7.7). Labinowicz came from Coastal Carolina and after sitting out last year, is producing 11.8 & 3.5. Junior guard Cunliffe sat out last year after a season at Kansas but is averaging 11.1 & 3.1 this season. Riley led Evansville in scoring last season at 13.6 PPG and is right in the mix again this season, averaging 12.4 & 4..
Here's the rub. Bradley may be the better team but the Braves are 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) on the road this season and their best player, the 6-7 Childs, is out indefinitely after hand surgery. Evansville hasn’t been the same team that beat Kentucky lately, but some "double revenge" against Bradley from last season should be plenty of motivation to get a home win (avoiding an 0-3 start in MVC play) over a team that just got that bad news about Childs.
Good luck...Larry
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01-07-20 |
Baylor v. Texas Tech -3 | Top | 57-52 |
Loss | -108 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Top-25 Showdown is on Texas Tech at 9:00 ET.
Baylor head coach Scott Drew took the head coaching position at Baylor after the resignation of Dave Bliss due to scandal. Four years of sanctions later, Drew got things turned around and Baylor has had 12 straight winning seasons, making eight NCAA tourneys plus finishing as runner-up in the 2009 NIT and winning it in 2013. Baylor is 11-1 to open the 2019-20 season and Monday, saw the the latest AP poll rank the Bears No. 4, the first time in three years that Baylor's been in the top-5. Baylor's lone loss was 67-64 to Washington back on Nov 8 in Alaska. Baylor has passed just about every challenge it has been handed so far (Bears have beaten THREE ranked teams) but this contest will be its first true road game of the season.
Baylor's opponent will be 10-3 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are not only the reigning Big 12 Conference regular-season champions but most surely should remember that Texas Tech advanced to last year's national championship game, where it lost 85-77 to Virginia, in OT! Tech opened this season 5-0 but then dropped THREE in a row. The first two came in Las Vegas to Iowa and Creighton and the third at DePaul (note: the losses to Creighton & DePaul came in OT). Tech enters this contest on a five-game winning streak.
Despite missing 18 of its first 20 field-goal attempts in the second half and shooting 31.3 percent for the game on Saturday, Baylor handily beat Texas 59-44 by grabbing a season-high 19 offensive rebounds and holding a sixth opponent under 60 points. Baylor has been greatly helped by two transfers this season, guard MaCio Teague (15.2 & 4.8), from UNC-Ashville and Davion Mitchell (9.3 & 3.3 APG) from Auburn. They've joined a deep backcourt which includes leading scorer Butler (17.3), Bandoo (8.1 & 4.4) and Vital (6.6 & 5.4). The frontcourt is more of a question, as the 6-10 Clark (14.6 & 6.3 last season before being lost for the year to an injury after just 14 games) is trying to work his way back but is averaging only 4.9 & 2.9 in eight games. He's been limited to 36 minutes in his last three, scoring just NINE points with TWO rebounds. 6-9 senior Gillespie (8.7 & 9.4) has been the team's only regular frontcourt player of note. Still, Baylor is allowing just 58.9 PPG (11th).
The Red Raiders are coming off their most lopsided margin of victory ever in a Big 12 game. Texas Tech improved to 8-0 this season in Lubbock, outscoring Oklahoma State 49-20 in the second half en route to an 85-50 victory Saturday. Freshman guard Ramsey (17.4 points & 5.3) led the team in scoring for the sixth time in the nine games he's played this season with 18 points against the Cowboys. Virginia Tech graduate transfer Chris Clarke, a 6-6 guard, is averaging 7.1 PPG but is also the team-leader in rebounding (8.9) and assists (5.8). Those two are joined on the perimeter by junior Moretti (13.2) plus two more freshman, Shannon (12.2 & 4.3) and Edwards (10.7-4.5-3.4). 6-8 senior Holyfield (10.1 & 5.1) is Tech's best big man. The Raiders also know something about playing defense, allowing a modest 62.2 PPG (45th).
As noted above, Baylor has yet to play a true road game this season and after this one, the Bears visit No. 3 Kansas on Saturday (tough two-game trip). Baylor's No. 4 ranking will NOT survive the week! Texas Tech is 58-5 at home under fourth-year coach Chris Beard (including 23-5 during conference play) and takes a 15-game home winning streak into tonight's contest. Tech makes it 16 straight home wins, "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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01-07-20 |
Virginia v. Boston College OVER 113.5 | Top | 53-60 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Total of the Week is on UVA/BC Over at 7:00 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA is currently 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th as it visits Boston College (8-6, 2-1) in Chestnut Hill, Ma. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). BC got off to a 4-1 start but then lost FOUR in a row. The Eagles followed with FOUR straight wins (including 73-72 at Notre Dame) but were dismantled by Duke 88-49 last Tuesday at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Virginia has barely been tested in ACC play thus far. The Cavaliers have held their first three conference opponents to an average of 40.0 PPG, while the average margin of victory has been 16.3 points. The most lopsided of those three conference victories was a 65-39 rout of Virginia Tech on Saturday, in which the Hokies shot 27.1 percent from the floor. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.3 & 7.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.8-4.4-5.9). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.2 & 6.8) and the 7-1 Huff (8.6 & 6.1).
BC really misses Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad transfer Derryck Thornton has been a big addition, averaging a team-high 13.3 PPG (3.1 RPG & 3.4 APG). Freshman guard Heath (12.0) joins him in the backcourt, while the 6-11 Popovic (11.8 & 5.9) is the team's third double digit scorer. The Hamilton brothers are 6-8 sophomore Jairus (9.1 & 4.1) and senior guard Jared (8.4), while the 6-8 Mitchell (7.7 & 8.7) is the team's leading rebounder.
I've already played two UVA games "over" and have won BOTH times. Here's why I believe I'll make it 3-0. UVA's Key is a unique talent and missed three games in late-Nov and early-Dec (DNP in the Purdue loss) and it took him a couple of games to work himself back into top form. He's been excellent in UVA's last two contests, combining to score 33 points on 15-23 (65.2%) shooting, while grabbing 17 rebounds. More notably for me is that the Cavs have scored 65 points in each of those contest (10 points more than the team had been averaging). BC just allowed 88 points to Duke and on the season, is allowing 67.1 PPG. No reason to think the Cavs can't get 70-plus points in this one. Sure, BC has to go against the Cavs defense (No. 1 in both allowing 46.7 PPG on 34.0% shooting) but BC can't possibly shoot as badly as the team did at Duke (see above). First off, this game is at home and note that BC has averaged 66.3 PPG on the season. I check of the team's mot recent games reveals BC playing FOUR straight unders but the finals of those games averaged 128.3 PPG, with no game finishing lower than 123 points. This Over/Under number is about two 'TD's' lower than that 128 PPG average. It's Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
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01-06-20 |
Georgia State v. Arkansas State +4 | Top | 87-90 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Arkansas St at 8:00 ET.
The Georgia State Panthers are traveling to First National Bank Arena in Jonesboro, Arkansas to face off against the Arkansas State Red Wolves for a SBC matchup. The Panthers are 10-5 overall, including 3-1 in league play, while the Red Wolves own a similar 10-5 record, which includes a 2-2 start in conference action. Georgia St is coming off back-to-back SBC tourney titles (and NCAA appearances) but head coach Ron Hunter (three NCAA berths in eight years at the school) left for Tulane. In his place is Rob Lanier (cousin of NBA Hall-of-Famer Bob Lanier), who was just 58-70 in his four-year stint at Siena (interesting hire?). Mike Balado (former Louisville assistant) is in his third season at Arkansas St and has had little success so far, as the Red Wolves went 24-40 the previous two seasons, including 13-23 in SBC play.
The Panthers own a depe backcourt, with four guards all averaging in double digits and are getting 25-plus minutes of "PT." Allen (15.1) leads the way, followed by Williams (13.5-4.1-4.6), Roberts (13.3-4.5-3.4) and Wilson (11.3 & 4.50. Up front, it's the 6-8 Linder (5.8 & 4.3), 6-10 freshman Thomas (5.7 & 3.9) and the 6-6 Ivery (4.7 & 4.3). Georgia St averages a 'healthy' 78.9 PPG (42nd) but allows 70.3 pPG (211th).
The Red Wolves have SEVEN players getting 20-plus minutes of playing time, while chipping in between 4.9 and 11.9 PPG. Freshman PG Fields (11.9-3.3-3.2) and senior guard Kus (11.9 & 5.1) are the top scorers. Junior guard Eaton (9.70 is right behind that duo, while a pair of returning forwards, the 6-9 Matthews (8.9 & 4.2) and the 6-8 Brevard (5.6 & 6.6) have been steady role players. Joining the mix in mid-December has been 6-8 Wake Forest transfer Eggelston. He became eligible for a Dec 18 game vs ULL but played only four scoreless minutes. However, over the next four games, he's averaged 12.8 & 5.5.
This is a brutal spot for Georgia St, as the Panther will be playing their THIRD conference road game since Thursday. Arkansas St was hardly in Georgia St's class these last two season but that's NOT the case this season, as both are 10-5 (Ga St is 9-3-1 ATS and Ark St 9-4). As just noted, a THIRD straight conference road game in FIVE days is hardly a spot one would want to lay points in. The 6-8 Eggelston (Wake transfer) just may be the best player on the court tonight and I say the situation is "just right" for the home dog to 'bark' LOUDLY!
Good luck...Larry
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01-05-20 |
Purdue v. Illinois -1 | Top | 37-63 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* 36-Club Play is on Illinois at 8:00 ET.
Brad Underwood was a head coach at Stephen F Austin and Oklahoma St before being hired at Illinois back on March 18, 2017. He signed a six-year contract through 2023 worth $18 million but after two seasons in Champaign, his Fighting Illini were just 26-39 (11-27 in Big Ten play). However, Underwood returned FOUR starters from last season's team plus added 6-9 freshman center Kofi Cockburn. Illinois ran into a buzz saw Thursday night at No. 14 Michigan State, tying a season low in points and setting two others in field-goal percentage (29.3) and three-point percentage (10.7) in a 76-56 defeat. That said, Illinois sits 9-5 overall as it gets set to welcome a 9-5 Purdue team to State Farm Center.
Purdue is coming off a 26-win season, after reaching the Elite 8 last year (lost in OT to eventual champ UVA). Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from that team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0), but the Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll. Purdue started just 4-3 but on Dec 4, got its revenge on Virginia, handing the Cavs their first loss of the current season, 69-40! However, the 9-5 Boilermakers are just 4-2 since beating UVA, losing at Nebraska and in a neutral-site game to Butler, while barely 'escaping' in two-OTs in their last game, 83-78 at home over Minnesota.
7-3 center Matt Haarms scored a career-high 26 points off the bench in his second game back against the Golden Gophers, after missing two straight due to a concussion, Purdue has nice balance, as FIVE players average between 9.7 and 12.1 PPG, with Haarms leading the way (12.1 & 6.1). The rest of that group includes a trio of guards in Proctor (11.8), Hunter (11.2-3.6-3.4) and Stefanovic (8.9) plus the the 6-9 Williams (9.7 & 7.1). Williams just who missed posting his third consecutive double-double with 14 points and nine boards against Minnesota but is averaging 14 points and 10.2 rebounds over his last five outings, despite playing 24.2 minutes per game over that stretch. The 6-9 Wheeler (4.9 & 6.0) plus guards Thompson (4.5) and Eastern (3.9) also see regular minutes.
One could argue that no Big Ten team has had a more challenging start to conference play than Illinois. The Illinois opened league action by dropping a one-point decision at then-No. 3 Maryland on Dec 7 plus followed with a 71-62 home win four days later vs then-No. 5 Michigan. The Fighting Illini resumed Big Ten action Thursday but as noted above, got CRUSHED by Michigan St. Let me remind all here, that the Spartans were still 'stinging' from last season's 79-74 loss at Illinois, as a 10.5-point favorite (Illinois was in the WRONG place at the WRONG time!).
Similar to Purdue, Illinois is well-balanced with SIX players chipping in between 8.4 and 15.8 PPG. Leading that pack are returning guard Dosunma (15.8 & 3.9) plus highly-regarded 7-0 freshman Kofi Cockburn (15.2 & 9.6). Dosunma has plenty of help on the perimeter from fellow guards Feliz (11.5 & 5.1), Frazier (9.2) and Griffin (9.0), while the 6-9 Bezhanishvili adds 8.4 & 5.3 up front. Underwood recently told reporters that he likes where Illinois is going, even after his team suffered its most lopsided defeat in Big Ten play Thursday at Michigan St. I agree with him. Expect Cockburn, who dealt with foul trouble en route to his worst game of the year against the Spartans (settling for a season-low five points on 2-of-10 shooting), to 'Get in Haarm's Way,' as the Illini take down the Boilermakers with a convincing win.
Good luck...Larry
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01-04-20 |
San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 77-68 |
Loss | -109 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Game of the Year (MWC) is on Utah St at 10:00 ET.
No. 12 San Diego State puts its perfect 14-0 record on the line Saturday against 13-3 Utah State tonight in Logan. The Aztecs are one of just two unbeatens in college hoops (No. 8 Auburn at 12-0 is the other) ans I have no doubt that they remember that Utah State earned an NCAA Tournament berth with a 64-57 win over the Aztecs in last season’s Mountain West tournament championship game.That said, winning in Logan will be a challenge.
San Diego State overcame a sluggish offensive start in its 61-52 defeat of Fresno State on Wednesday, as the Aztecs shot 33.3 percent from the floor in the first half, including just 2-of-10 from behind the 3-point line However, they recovered to shoot almost 60 percent from the floor in the second half to reach 14-0. SDSU's 14-game winning streak is the third-longest in school history. . The Aztecs are well-balanced with SIX players getting 20-plus minutes, three guards and three frontcourt players. PG Flynn (15.5 & 5.1 APG) leads the team in scoring and assists and is joined in the starting lineup by fellow guards Schakel (10.1) and Feagin (7.3 & 3.6 APG). Two 6-10 players, Wetzell (10.7 & 7.2) and Mensah (6.9 & 6.8), plus SF Mitchell (11.1 PPG & 4.4), are the frontcourt contributors. SDSU has been known for its defense since Fisher arrived in San Diego and current head coach Brian Dutcher (he was on Fisher's staff in Michigan and SDSU), preaches the same 'sermon.' That said, the Aztecs are allowing 68.0 PPG (66th), although that's a little higher than most would think.
Senior guard Sam Merrill was the Mountain West player of the year last season and entered Wednesday’s contest at UNLV averaging 17.7 points. However, UNLV held him to 10 points on 2-of-6 shooting. Merrill(17.1-5.1-3.6) remains the team's best player but a real bright spot has been the play of 6-7 sophomore forward Justin Bean (14.2 & 11.4). He posted his 11th career double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds in the loss to the Rebels. The Aggies were outrebounded 41-29 and dominated near the basket minus 7-foot sophomore center Neemias Queta, who has been limited to four games this season due to a knee injury and is questionable for Saturday’s contest. Queta averaged 11.8 & 8.9 last season but in four games has averaged 8.8 & 5.0 this season. The 6-6 Anderson (11.5 & 4.9) is a solid frontcourt player plus Merrill gets plenty of help on the perimeter from Miller (10.2), Brito (9.0 & 4.0) and Porter (7.1 & 3.9 APG).
Here's the 'dope.' It may come as a surprise to some that San Diego St has won at least 19 games for each of the last 14 seasons and owns the NCAA's 14th-best winning percentage (.733) in that time frame. The Aztecs entered last season having made SEVEN of the last nine NCAA tourneys and played in the postseason in 12 of the previous 13 years.As noted already, teh team's 14-game winning streak is the third-longest in school history but that streak WILL end. Tonight seems like the perfect time for that to happen. Queta sustained a knee injury playing for Portugal's FIBA U-20 team this summer and as noted, has seen limited action. I'd 'LOVE' for him to play here but won't count on it. Utah St is 8-0 SU at hone this season, after going 16-2 at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum last season. Coming off an embarrassing loss in Las Vegas, the Aggies have to be highly motivated to hand San Diego St its first loss of the season. As the famous Hawaii Five-0 line went, "Book 'em (it), Danno!."
Good luck...Larry
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01-04-20 |
Auburn v. Mississippi State +1 | Top | 80-68 |
Loss | -104 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Miss St at 4:30 ET. Auburn made an incredible run to last year's Final 4, before losing 63-62 to eventual champ Virginia. The Tigers lost a 'ton' off that team, most notably guards Brown (15.9) and Harper (15.3) plus the 6-8 Okeke (12.0 & 6.8). However, the Tigers start four seniors in 2019-20 and after just barely sneaking into the AP's preseason poll (24th), have opened 12-0 (one of just two unbeatens in college hoops) and will take a ranking of No. 8 into their SEC opener Saturday at Starkville, where they'll face 9-3 Mississippi St. The Bulldogs finished 23-11 last season, after losing their first round game in the "Big Dance." The good news was, FOUR starters from that team returned for the 2019-20 season. The Tigers opened this season starting FOUR seniors plus freshman Isaac Okoro, who head coach Bruce Pearl called the best defensive guard he's ever signed. The same starting lineup remains from Game 1, with the 6-6 Okoro (12.8 & 4.5) checking in as the team's second-leading scorer. Guard Doughty leads that group of four seniors (as well as the entire team) in scoring 16.4 PPG. He's followed by the 6-11 Wiley (10.8 & 9.5), PG McCormick (10.6-4.2-5.7) and the 6-7 Purifoy (9.5 & 5.0). Pearl's team is among the highest-scoring in the nation, averaging 82.2 PPG to rank 15th. Ben Howland knows more than just a little about coaching and his teams have put together back-to-back seasons of 25 and 23 wins in the tough SEC. This year's team will sure miss Qiunndary Witherspoon (18.5 PPG) but as noted, FOUR starters return plus freshman guards Stewart and Molinar are both averaging 9.1 PPG. That duo joins PG Carter (15.4 & 4.2 APG) and Woodard 11.8 & 7.3) in the backcourt and note Woodard's rebounding skill. The 6-10 Perry (15.4 & 9.8) matches Carter in scoring and leads the team in rebounding. He's joined in the frontcourt by the 6-1 1 Ado, who adds 5.7 & 6.4. More good news comes Miss St's way in that junior guard Nick Weatherspoon has scored 18 points in 42 minutes over two contests since returning from being suspended for the first 10 games of the season because of a violation of team rules. The Tigers have played only one true road game (a 70-69 victory at South Alabama on Nov 12) but are 4-0 in neutral-court contests. It's also true that the Tigers have won 23 of their last 24 games, losing to eventual national champion Virginia 63-62 in the Final Four). The again, it's also true that Miss St has won SEVEN of the last eight meetings with Auburn in Starkville, including a 92-84 victory last season. Pearl has nothing on Howland and the Bulldogs have the talent and depth to hand Auburn its first loss of the season. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
01-04-20 |
Kansas State v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 61-66 |
Loss | -109 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Oklahoma at 1:00 ET.
Bruce Weber led his Kansas St team to a 25-9 season last year which included a trip to the NCAA tourney but the Wildcats have hardly looked like an NCAA-worthy team so far this season. Kansas St visits Norman for a game with 9-3 Oklahoma at just 7-5. Oklahoma made the NCAA tourney last season and even won its first game, although the Sooners ended the season just 20-14. Weber lost his three top-scorers off last year's team in guards Brown (14.6 & 4.1) and Stokes (11.00 plus the 6-9 Wade (12.9 & 6.2), while Kruger returned an excellent duo from last year's NCAA team in in the 6-7 Doolittle and the 6-9 Manek plus added an excellent guard in Austin Reaves, who transferred from Wichita St
Kansas St opened 4-0 but doing the math, one can see that the Wildcats are just 3-5 since that fast start. It's fair to say that the Wildcats posted their most impressive victory Sunday (more on that in a bit), as Big 12 Player of the Week Cartier Diarra (12.8-4.6-5.8) scored a career-high 25 points (added five rebounds and seven assists), including the game-winning three-pointer with 22.4 seconds left taht gave Kansas St a 69-67 home win over Tulsa. 6-5 forward Xavier Sneed is one of eight Big 12 players who ranks among the top 20 in scoring (14.4 points; 14th) and rebounding (5.2; 20th). Much more was expected of 6-9 senior Makol Mawien (7.8 & 5.3), who scored at least 10 points three times and averaged 6.5 rebounds as Kansas State opened the season with four straight wins. However, he has reached double figures only ONCE and averaged 4.6 boards over the last eight contests.
The 6-7 Kristian Doolittle is Oklahoma's leading scorer (16.7) and rebounder (8.9) but he did not play Monday, when the Sooners coasted to a 91-72 over Texas-Rio Grande Valley (reason: a "conflict of team interests" per coach Lon Kruger). However, his replacement, 6-10 JC transfer Kur Kuath (3.8 & 1.8), scored 17 points, grabbed eight rebounds and had two blocked shots in a rare start. The 6-9 Brady Manek (15.4 & 6.3) also more than made up for the absence of Doolittle by producing a career-high 29 points to extend his streak of double-digit scoring to 15 games. Guard Austin Reaves (16.3 & 5.7) has shot poorly from three-point range lately (4-for-23 beyond the arc over his last four outings) but remember, he shot 50.9 and 42.5% in his first two college seasons at Wichita St.
Doolittle is expected back here and note that Oklahoma is one of just two major-conference teams with THREE players averaging at least 15 PPG (along with Miami) and the Sooners are playing with "double-revenge" from last season. The Wildcats won their only true road game this season (in OT at UNLV) but are 0-4 in in two neutral site tourneys (Florida and New Jersey). The Wildcats are looking to earn their first victory over a major-conference opponent on Saturday but it WON'T come today! Revenge is often an over-used term in sports but NOT here! Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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01-02-20 |
Oregon State v. Utah -2 | Top | 69-81 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Game of the Year (Pac-12) is on Utah at 8:30 ET.
Larry Krystkowiak (Utah head coach) and his Oregon State counterpart (Wayne Tinkle), were teammates at Montana during the 1985 and ’86 seasons. as the 10-2 Oregon St Beavers visit the 9-3 Utah Utes in the Pac-12 opener for both schools, the former teammates will meet for the EIGHT time as opposing head coaches (Krystkowiak owns a modest 4-3 advantage). Both teams are off to good starts as the season continues into 2020. Oregon State had its seven-game win streak end Dec 21 when it suffered a 64-49 loss at Texas A&M but the Beavers have since bounced back with an 83-66 home rout of North Dakota on Sunday. Overall, Oregon State’s 10-2 record matches the 1989-90, 2011-12 and 2015-16 teams for the program’s best start in 35 years. Utah has opened 9-3, including wins over then-No. 6 Kentucky, as well earning victories over the Big Ten’s Minnesota and on the road at Nevada. The Utes 69-66 victory over Kentucky in Las Vegas on Dec 18 extended Utah’s win streak to five but the Utah was humbled 80-52 only three days later by now-No. 13 Diego State (note: Aztecs are one of just TWO unbeatens in college hoops, at 14-0).
Wayne Tinkle got great news when both 6-7 senior Tres Tinkle (his son) and guard Ethan Thompson both decided to come back this season and play for the Beavers. Tinkle continues to display his all-around talents, as he's the only player in the Pac-12 to rank in the top 10 in scoring (2nd at 20.4 PPG), rebounding (seventh with 7.3), assists (ninth with 4.2) and steals (tied for second with 2.0). Thompson also flirted with jumping to the NBA and gives Oregon St a terrific '1-2 punch,' averaging 15.8-4.7-4.7. The 7-0 Kelley (11.7 & 4.6) joins Tinkle and Thompson in double digits, while guard Reichle (8.4-3.3-2.5) and forward Hollins (6.6 & 3.7) round out the Beavers' main contributors.
Utah features the Pac-12's leading scorer in the 6-6 Timmy Allen, who is averaging 21.0 PPG and a team-high 7.4 RPG. Starting guards Gach (11.6-3.7-3.2) and Rylan Jones (11.1-3.2-5.0) also are averaging double digits. Jones is a true freshman and also leads in steals at 1.2 per game.The 6-9 Battin (9.8 & 5.3) and freshman center Carlson (6.1 & 3.9) complete the starting lineup. Two more freshman are contributing for the Utes as well, the 6-8 Jantunen (6.8 & 5.3) and guard Brenchley (4.8).
Since entering the Pac-12 in 2011 Utah, owns an 18-13 series advantage, including a 13-2 home mark. That's the venue is the key here, as Oregon St enters this contest having gone just 5-22 SU on the Pac-12 road the last three seasons. Krystkowiak gets the better of his former teammate (Tinkle) in this one.
Good luck...Larry
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01-01-20 |
Marquette v. Creighton -3 | Top | 75-92 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Creighton at 9:00 ET.
10-2 Marquette will visit 11-2 Creighton in the Big East opener for both teams. The Golden Eagles went 24-10 last season but lost in the NCAA's first round. In the off-season, head coach Steve Wojciechowski got great news as Markus Howard (25.0 PPG), the Big East player-of-the-year, would return for his senior year. However, three day later, the Hauser brothers, Sam (14.9 & 7.2( and Joey (9.7 & 5.3), announced that they were transferring. Greg McDermott is in his 10th season as head coach of Creighton. He arrived in 2010-11 and led the Bluejays to a runner-up finish in the CBI. Three straight NCAA teams followed, as Creighton won 29, 28 and 27 games. His lone losing season came in 2014-15 but Creighton's won 20-plus games the last four years, with two NCAA appearances and two in the NIT. The teams split two meetings last year, with the visiting team winning each one. Most notably, in last season's Jan 9 game at Creighton, Howard scored a Big East-record 53 points, with 14 coming in overtime as the Golden Eagles beat the Bluejays 106-104.
Marquette begins Bg East play having won its last five games, after Howard (26.3) scored 30 points in last Saturday's 106-54 rout of Central Arkansas. SEVEN others scored at least eight points and the Golden Eagles had 23 assists while shooting 54.7 percent from the floor. Guards Sacar Anim (12.5 & 3.8) and Koby McEwen (10.2-5.3-3.5) give Marquette a solid guard trio, although McEwen sat out Saturday's game with a sprained thumb and is day-to-day. The frontcourt's main contributors are the 6-8 Bailey (6.9 & 4.5), the 6-7 Cain (6.3 & 5.3) and the 6-9 John (5.9 & 4.8).
The Bluejays also seem primed for conference action, heading into tonight's contest with SEVEN straight wins to close non-conference play. They had four victories against power conference teams during the run, before picking up a 91-54 triumph over NAIA squad Midland on Saturday. Creighton opened the season starting atrio of guards and all three are scoring in double digits. Marcus Zegarowski(18.5 & 4.8 APG) and Ty-Shon Alexander (16.5 & 5.9) have led the way, while Mitch Ballock is adding 12.2 & 5.2. 12.5 & 5.2). Joining that trio in the starting lineup are forwards Bishop (8.9 & 6.2) and Jefferson (7.7 & 5.3) while the 6-11 Jones (4.8 & 4.3) and guard Mitchell (4.3) come off the bench. Creighton has also gotten a HUGE boost now that highly touted 6-5 guard Denzel Mahoney became eligible in mid-December. He averaged 19.3 PPG for Southeast Missouri State (2nd-most on the OVC) back in 2017-18. He's played three games and is averaging 12.7 & 4.0.
Marquette has failed its two biggest tests so far, losing 77-61 at Wisconsin and 84-63 to Maryland in the title game of the Orlando Invitational. Creighton's two losses are surely understandable, losing at Michigan (current No. 12) and to SD St in Las Vegas (Aztecs are one of two unbeatens remaining and are currently ranked 13th). As noted above, Creighton owns wins over FOUR power-5 schools, beating Texas Tech, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Arizona St. The Bluejays are 9-0 at home and throwing out their blowout over NAIA squad Midland, the average margin of victory has been by 15.4 PPG. Home team wins AND covers!
Good luck...Larry
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12-30-19 |
CS Sacramento v. Montana OVER 124 | Top | 50-52 |
Loss | -109 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Total of the Week is on Sac St/Montana Over at 9:00 ET. It's a Big Sky matchup Monday night, as 7-3 Sacramento St visits Bozeman to take on 5-7 Montana. The Hornets have the better record but have opened 0-1 in league play, while the Grizzlies are 1-0 to open conference play. Sacramento St hasn't won more than 15 games in each of the previous four seasons, with last year's 15-16 record being the "high-mark" during that span. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are coming off a 26-9 season, its second straight 26-win season, each ending with an NCAA appearance. However, FOUR starters are gone from last yea's team, although the 6-5 Pridgett will be the best player on the floor tonight, as he averages 20.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG. The team's only other double-digit scorer is guard Manuel, who played last season after transferring from Ore St. The 6-4 redshirt senior averaged 8.7 PPG last season but is up to 12.9 this season. The Hornets' feature FIVE players scoring between 7.4 and 13.5 PPG, with 6-8 senior center Patton (13.5 & 5.1) leading the way, while the 6-7 Esposito adds 9.6 & 5.7. Sacramento St's strength is a defense allowing just 53.5 PPG (3rd) on 35.8% shooting (6th). OK, so why am I going over? All FIVE of Montana's wins this season have come at home in Dahlberg Arena (5-1), with the Grizzlies averaging 72.5 PPG with the final scores of the team's six home contests averaging 137.5 PPG. These schools met THREE times last season and the finals totaled, 153, 154 and 152. How about that for consistency? With this total in the mid-120s, I CAN'T resist Goin' Over. Are you with me? Good luck...Larry |
12-29-19 |
Arkansas v. Indiana -5 | Top | 71-64 |
Loss | -109 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Indiana at 6:00 ET. The Arkansas Razorbacks are 10-1 and the Indiana Hoosiers are 11-1. Both schools suffered their lone loss this season on Dec 7, Arkansas 86-79 (OT) at Western Kentucky and Indiana 84-64 at Wisconsin. However, as both schools wrap up the non-conference portion of their schedules, neither is ranked. The Razorbacks and Hoosiers remain outside the top-25 because of schedules that are considered weak and both could use a win to enhance their resumes. Surprisingly, the teams will meet for the THIRD time in 13 months. Arkansas won a regular-season game at home last November (73-72) and Indiana prevailed in an NIT matchup in March, 63-60. Mike Anderson never fulfilled his promise at Arkansas and is gone after eight seasons (just three NCAA bids). To rescue has come Eric Mussleman, who led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season at Reno (2015-16) and then to three consecutive NCAA tourneys the last three years (won 28, 29 and 29 games!). Four starters returned for Arkansas but Mussleman added FIVE transfers in his first five months on the job. However, the only one making significant contributions is guard Whitt (from SMU), who is averaging 14.1 & 5.8). Arkansas' top-two scorers are returning guards Jones (19.6 & 6.2) and Joe (16.8 & 4.6). This is a perimeter-dominated team, as the team's best frontcourt player is 6-6 senior Bailey (7.3 & 4.6). In the end, Arkansas relies on a defense that holds opponents to 59.5 PPG (16th) and to 21.8 percent on three-point shots (1st). Archie Miller began his third season as Indiana's head coach and KNEW he had better improve on the 16 and 19-win seasons the Hoosiers delivered in his first two seasons at Bloomington. Indiana lost two NBA players from last year's team, guard Langford (16.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Morgan (15.5 & 8.2), but this year's team is off to an 11-1 start. That said, the schedule has been home-based and 'soft.' Veteran returning guards Green (12.3) and Durham (12.2) give Indiana a solid backcourt, while highly-touted 6-9 freshman Jackson-Davis (15.0 & 8.9) has been as good as advertised. He's joined up front by returning 6-7 forward Smith (12.7 & 5.3) and 6-11 Butler graduate transfer Brunk (7.8 & 5.5). PG Rob Phinisee is averaging 8.3 PPG and 3.7 APG (in seven games) and has struggled with an ankle injury but was back in the court in Indiana's last game, a Dec 21 win over Notre Dame (more in a bit). Both teams have been off since Dec 21 but I'm siding with Indiana. A win would give Indiana an undefeated record in non-conference play for the first time since the 2011-12 season and its first 12-1 start since 2012-13. Note that Indiana is 7-0 when PG Phinisee is able to play. The Hoosiers will test Arkansas' D with an offense averaging 80.3 PPG on 48.4% shooting (24th). Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
12-28-19 |
Wisconsin v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 68-48 |
Loss | -109 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on Tennessee at 1:30 ET. Wisconsin and Tennessee meet Saturday afternoon in Knoxville. Wisconsin entered the season having been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and while the Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team, the Badgers had a solid returning core. However, Wisconsin enters this contest just 6-5.The Vols went 31 games last season (made it to teh Sweet 16) but lost FOUR starters off that team, including tw0-time SEC player of the year, Grant Williams. The Vols are 8-3, as they enter their final game in 2019, with the team's SEC schedule opening Jan 4 with a home game against LSU The 6-11 Reuvers (15.6 & 5.6) is not Happ but he's an excellent big man. He's joined up front by the 6-8 Ford (10.0 & 4.5) plus a quartet of guards round out what has been Wisconsin's six-man rotation. King (11.5 & 3.8), Trice (9.8-4.6-3.1), Davison (9.3 & 4.1) and Pitzl (6.9 & 4.0) are all seasoned players. I just noted Wisconsin's six-man rotation but it's now SEVEN, as the 6-11 Porter, an Ohio St transfer, just became eligible in mid-December. He came off the bench to score12 points with five rebounds in his first game (an 83-64 win over Milwaukee last Saturday) and will CLEARLY be a key contributor the rest of the way. Rick Barnes lost plenty from last year's team but was set to rebuild around veteran guards Turner and Bowden, a pair of promising freshman plus 6-9 junior Fulkerson. Tennessee lost back-to-back games to then No. 13 Memphis at home (Dec 14) and then at Cincinnati on Dec 18. An easy win over Jacksonville State (Dec 21) may have "felt good' but NOT for long. Senior point guard Lamonte Turner (12.3-3.5-7.1) announced after the game that he was going to have season-ending shoulder surgery, thus ending his career with the Vols. Turner had been battling shoulder problems for several years. “I cried when I came back in the locker room just knowing that was my last time stepping out there,” Turner said after the 75-53 win over the Gamecocks last Saturday. “I have cried plenty of times thinking about it and I have cried plenty of times through this injury.” Senior Jordan Bowden (13.5-4.1-2.4 assists) scored a game-high 19 points in the win over Jacksonville St, while 6-9 junior John Fulkerson added 16 points on 8-of-11 shooting (he's shooting 67.1% on the season, averaging 11.8 & 5.3). Junior swingman Yves Pons (11.7 & 5.5) tied Tennessee's single-game record with six blocks and has rejected at least one shot in 11 straight games. As for those freshman I mentioned earlier, Josiah-Jordan James is scoring 7.4 PPG and adds a team-high 6.3 rebounds, while the 6-8 Nkamhoua is averaging 4.9 & 4.5. I realize that with the 6-11 Porter now eligible, Wisconsin will be a more formidable team moving forward but the Badgers have yet to win away from Madison. Wisconsin is 0-2 in true road games and 0-3 in neutral contests. Winning at Thompson-Bolling Arena is no easy task, as when the Vols lost at home to Memphis on Dec 14 (note: Tigers are now ranked 9th at 10-1), it ended a 31-game home winning streak for the Vols. The Vols play outstanding D, holding opponents to just 57.2 PPG on 38.1% shooting (23rd) and "at this price," I expect Tennessee to cap 2019 with a solid victory, before heading off to SEC play when the calendar turns to 2020. Good luck...Larry |
12-25-19 |
Houston v. Washington +1 | Top | 75-71 |
Loss | -110 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Washington at 9:00 ET.
No. 21 Washington (10-2) will face 9-3 Houston in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu on Christmas evening. The Huskies reached the title game easily taking care of Ball St (85-64) Ball State and the host school (Hawaii), 72-61. Meanwhile, the Cougars advanced with wins over Portland and Georgia Tech by average of 18 points. Washington is looking for its NINTH victory in the last 10 games, while Houston is looking for its EIGHTH victory in the last nine contests.
Kelvin Sampson is in his sixth season with Houston. He has to bring in EIGHT new players in his first season and won just 13 games. However, four straight 20-plus win seasons have followed, including 33 wins last season, when the Cougars reached the Sweet 16. However, juts ONE starter returned from that squad. The team's lone returning starter from last year is the 6-8 White (10.3 & 76.1) and he recorded 15 points and 12 rebounds in Monday's win over Ga Tech, giving him his first double-double of the season. Sophomore guard Quentin Grimes (started every game for Kansas last season) was given a waiver to be able to play this season for Houston and is averaging 15.3-4.2 on the season. He's averaged 22 points in the first two games of this tourney, including a 26-point effort against Georgia Tech in which he tallied 23 in the first half (he has scored in double digits NINE times in 12 games). Hinton is a 6-5 sophomore guard who averages 12.8 PPG and a team-leading 9.3 RPG (he has collected nine or more rebounds in SIX straight games). Freshmen guards Caleb Mills (11.8) and Marcus Sasser (6.5), olus junior guard Jareau (8.8) round out the major contributors.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 29017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans plus added a third with the transfer guard Quade Green from Kentucky. 6-9 freshman Isaiah Stewart recorded 26 points and 13 rebounds in Washington's 72-61 semifinal win over Hawaii on Monday for his fourth straight double-double and sixth of the season. He leads the team in both scoring (18.80 and rebounding (8.9), while fellow freshman, the 6-10 Jaden McDaniel chips in 14.7 & 5.8. He struggled to eight points on 2-of-8 shooting vs Hawaii but did collect a season-high 13 rebounds. PG Quade Green (that Kentucky transfer) is averaging 17.2 points over the last five games to raise his average to 11.5 PPG, to go along with a team-high 5.3 APG. Swingman Carter, with more "PT" this season, is averaging 13.3 & 5.8.
The Cougars have lost at Oregon and in home games to BYU (72-71 at the buzzer) and to Oklahoma St. That Dec 15th home loss to OSU was 'ugly,' as the Cougars scored just 55 points at home, while shooting just 33.1%. However, Houston has rebounded to win THREE in a row by margins of 20, 25 and 11 points (3-0 ATS). As for Washington, its win over Hawaii was its first true road win but an impressive one, as the Huskies held the Rainbow Warriors (who entered on a seven-game home winning streak) to 28.4 percent from the floor, including 9-of-39 from three-point range.
Washington will open Pac-12 play on Jan 2, so ending 2019 with a tourney win over a school which won 33 games last season, would be a nice confidence-builder for a team with such young talent. The Pac-12 is loaded this season, with Oregon ranked 6th and Arizona 24th, while Stanford sits 11-1 plus Colorado and USC at 10-2. Washington's two big freshman give the Huskies a big advantage inside plus Green and Carter on the perimeter are more than a match for Houston's solid perimeter group. The Cougars allowed Oregon to shoot over 50% from the floor in losing to the Ducks, in a game the Cougars shot just 2 of 20 on threes. Deja vu?
Good luck...Larry |
12-23-19 |
Washington v. Hawaii +6.5 | Top | 72-61 |
Loss | -104 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Hawaii at 11:00 ET.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 29017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans plus added a third with the transfer guard Quade Green from Kentucky (more in a bit). Washington is currently ranked 22nd in the AP and won its first round game in the Diamond Head Classic, 85-64 over Ball St, to up its record to 9-2. The Huskies will face the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors tonight in the second round, who upped their record to 8-3 with a late-night win over UTEP, 67-63. Hawaii head coach Eran Ganot is in his 5th season at Honolulu and he believes this is the best team he's had. "Bigger, faster and stronger," is the way he described this year's squad.
Washington's two freshman forwards, the 6-9 Stewart (18.1 & 8.5) and the 6-10 McDaniels (15.7 & 5.1), have lived up to expectations. McDaniels scored a career-high 22 points in Sunday's win and Stewart added 19 points and 10 rebounds. PG Green, a transfer from Kentucky, matched his career high with 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting with a game-high six assists (he's averaging 11.5 PPG and 5.1 APG on the season). Swingman Carter, with more "PT" this season, is averaging 13.5 & 5.8.
Hawaii cannot match Washington's overall talent but the Rainbow Warriors are a 'tough out,' here at home (tourney is played at the Stan Sheriff Center, Hawaii's home court). Senior guard Eddie Stansberry (18.5 & 3.9) is joined on the perimeter by Avea (11.5 & 4.5) and PG Buggs (10.7-3.9-5.6), while the 6-9 Raimo (9.3 -7.0-4.4) and the 7-0 Carper (6.9 & 3.9) start up front. UTEP led Hawaii by as many as nine points after the break and had a 51-43 lead midway through the second half. However, a 7-0 spurt over a 64-second span cut Hawaii's deficit to a point with nearly nine minutes to play. Buggs' layup with 39 seconds left capped a 10-2 run and gave the Rainbow Warriors a 64-60 lead. Leading scorer Eddie Stansberry was limited to seven points on 2-of-8 shooting in 38 minutes but 6-9 freshman Bernardo da Silva (4.8 & 3.0) scored a season-high 17 points on 8-of-9 shooting and grabbed five rebounds. Avea added 16 points and eight rebounds, while Buggs scored five points in the final 39 seconds.
Hawaii was out-classed by then-No. 13 Oregon on Dec 7, 89-64. However, that was in Eugene. Here, Hawaii is playing on its home court, where the Rainbow Warriors have won SEVEN in a row. Just how good is Washington? I'm NOT sure we know, just yet. This will be the Huskies' first true road game of the season. Washington opened the season with a neutral site game against Baylor (Nov 8) and while the Huskies won 63-58, Baylor failed to make a field goal over the final five minutes, allowing Washington to erase a 63-53 deficit. Clutch play by Washington, or 'choke job" by Baylor? About a week later, Washington/Tennessee was the middle feature in the James Naismith Hall of Fame Classic, an NCAA triple header at Scotiabank Arena in downtown Toronto. The Huskies didn't fare so well north of the border, falling behind by as many as 14 against the Volunteers, before losing 75-62. Washington's lone win away from home this season came yesterday, against a mediocre Ball St team. I'm willing to 'bite' on the home dog in this spot. Visiting 'paradise' often offers more than a few distractions.
Good luck...Larry
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12-23-19 |
UTEP v. Hawaii -1 | Top | 63-67 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET.
The UTEP Miners travel to 'paradise' (or Hawaii if you prefer), to take on the 7-3 Rainbow Warriors late Sunday night. UTEP has struggled this season to score, averaging a modest 69.7 PPG (234th) on 44.3% shooting, including 31.4% from beyond the arc. 6-8 senior forward Bryson Williams (19.6 & 7.0) is easily the team's best player, as the only other UTEP player averaging double-digits is junior guard Souley Boum (11.7 PPG). Hawaii is not exactly 'lighting up' the scoreboard, averaging 72.8 PPG but the team is shooting 45.8% from the floor, including 38.2% from beyond the arc (ranks 33rd). Senior guard Eddie Stansberry (19.7 & 3.7) is joined on the perimeter by Avea (11.1 & 4.1) and PG Buggs (10.9-4.0-5.4), while the 6-9 Raimo (9.3 & 7.2) and the 7-0 Carper (7.4 & 4.1) give Hawaii some inside 'muscle,'
UTEP recently won The Sun Bolw Classic on its home floor but then got blown out on the road by Houston on Thursday, 77-57. Hawaii has been off since last Sunday, when the Rainbow Warriors routed Samford, 94-73. Rodney Terry is in his second year as UTEP's head coach (spent seven modest years at Fresno St) and at 8-2, he's already matched his win total from his 'rookie season' at UTEP, as the Miners were just 8-21. However, here's the catch. The Miners have not won a road game in their last 15 chances (dating back to last season) and Hawaii checks in at 7-1 at the Stan Sheriff Center. What's NOT to like about Hawaii at this price?
Good luck...Larry
|
12-22-19 |
South Carolina v. Virginia OVER 111.5 | Top | 70-59 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on South Carolina/Virginia Over at 3:00 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). The now No. 9 ranked Cavs are off to a 9-1 start in defense of their title, with ethe team's lone loss coming at Purdue on Dec 4, 69-40 (Boilermakers got revenge for an Elite 8 loss last year to UVa). 7-4 South Carolina looks to knock off a second straight ACC opponent on the road when the Gamecocks face the Cavaliers on national television (ABC at 3:00 ET) in Charlottesville, Va. The Gamecocks made a Final 4 run of their own in 2017 but Martin's teams have won just 17 and 16 games the last two seasons.
South Carolina turned in a Cavalier-like defensive effort in last Sunday's 67-54 win at Clemson, holding the Tigers without a basket for the final 6 1/2 minutes of the game and to 28 percent shooting overall. The Gamecocks, who also forced in a season-high 21 turnovers against the Tigers, won their only other true road game on Dec 4 in an 84-80 victory at UMass. Sophomore A.J. Lawson (team-high 16.3 PPG) bounced back from a 10-point effort in a Dec 8 loss to Houston with 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting (4-of-7 beyond the arc), six rebounds and a season-high tying three steals. The only other South Carolina player in double digits on the season is the 6-11 Maik Kotsar (10.1 & 6.2) , who reached double figures for the SEVENTH time in his last eight outings with 11 points. With the recent return of guard Bryant from a knee injury (he's averaged 8.0 points in three games), the Gamecocks have five more players chipping in between 6.8 and 9.1 PPG.
Gone from last year's champs are are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). This season's team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (8.9 & 7.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.0-4.6-5.1). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.2 & 6.5) and the 7-1 Huff (9.5 & 6.8). The Cavaliers are scoring only 53.8 PPG (325th) on 39.5% shooting (329th), including 25.4% on threes (351st). However, the team's elite defense continues to make up for its lackluster offense. Uva is allowing a nation-low 44.2 PPG, while holding opponents to just 32.1% shooting (also ranks 1st).
South Carolina also plays excellent D, allowing 65.5 PPG (105th) on 37.9% shooting (21st). So why go over? The Gamecocks are averaging 70.6 PPG and while I don't expect them to match that average here, I don't expect a sub-55 point effort, either. Considering that Virginia has won 22 consecutive non-conference home games (dating back to Dec 3, 2016), I'm looking for a final in the mid-120s. I won my Dec Total of the Month on Va/Purdue Over back on Dec 4 and will 'go to the well' one more time by playing the Cavs over in this one (I won't do it often!).
Good luck...Larry
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12-21-19 |
LSU v. USC +2.5 | Top | 68-70 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on USC at 9:00 ET.
9-2 USC is hoping to add to its potential NCAA Tournament resume when it takes on 7-3 LSU at Staples Center on Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic. The Trojans have won three in a row heading into the contest, including an impressive road win at TCU. Most (some?) likely remember that LSU head coach Will Wade was suspended by LSU last March due to allegations over illegal recruiting charges. He's back but gone from last year's team are PG Waters (15.3 & 5.8 APG) plus frontcourt players the 6-9 Reid (13.6 & 7.2) and the 6-11 Bigby-Williams (7.9 & 6.7). Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17.
Key players returning for LSU this year are PG Javonte Smart (in the center of LY's recruiting scandal) and Skylar Mays. Mays leads the team in scoring (15.7) and Smart leads in assists (5.2), while adding 10.6 PPG. A pair of 6-6 forwards are back, with Williams chipping in 15.5 & 8.2 and Days 13.2 & 7.9. Prized freshman, the 6-9 Trendon Watford, adds 12.5 & 5.5. Junior guard Manning (8.3) rounds out LSU's main contributors.
Leading the way for the Tojans is 6-9 freshman Onyeka Okongwu. He was a back-to-back winner of California's Mr. Basketball award and is one of the nation's best 'rookies,' leading USC in scoring (18.4) and rebounding (9.0). Another freshman, the 6-9 Mobley, is also making solid contributions, averaging 9.3 & 6.6, Veteran leadership is provided by two seniors, the 6-11 Nick Rakocevic and guard Jonah Mathews. Rakocevic (11.8 & 8.2) and Mathews (12.4) became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark earlier this season.
LSU was upset by Southern Conference favorite East Tennessee State 74-63 on Wednesday and maybe the team was 'rusty' after a 10-day break for final exams. However, the Tigers struggled inside in the loss to East Tennessee State, which finished with a 40-29 rebound edge, including 19-7 on the offensive boards, and scored 40 points in the paint. That HARDLY bodes well against USC's two big freshman ( Okongwu and Mobley) and senior Rakocevic. "Two of our Achilles' heels this year popped themselves back up," Wade said. "We turned it over 15 times (note: LSU is averaging 15.1 turnovers per game which ranks them in a tie with La Salle for 276th nationally) and getting smashed on the glass like that."
The Trojans have had some solid non-conference wins over Harvard on a neutral court and at Nevada, but a neutral-court victory over the defending regular-season SEC champion Tigers could carry a lot of weight come March. "SEC school, that will be a top-tier win for us," senior guard Mathews told the Orange County Register. "Beating them would help our resume down in March." I agree and will take USC in this one.
Good luck...Larry
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12-21-19 |
Dayton -5 v. Colorado | Top | 76-78 |
Loss | -109 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on Dayton at 6:30 ET.
Anthony Grant had success at both VCU and Alabama, before taking Dayton job for the 2017-18 season (he had a successful four-year playing career as a Flyer). His current team is off to a9-1 start, with its lone loss coming to current No. 1 Kansas, 90-84 (OT) back on Nov 27th in the Maui Invitational championship game. The Flyers are currently 13th in the AP poll and will take on 9-2 Colorado on Saturday, in the Chicago Legends showcase at the United Center. Tad Boyle took the Colorado job in 2010-11 and won 20-plus games in FIVE of his first six seasons (three NCAA appearances). However, mediocre 19-15 and 17-15 seasons followed, before Colorado went 23-13 last year. The Buffs didn't make the Big Dance last season but all FIVE starters returned and big things were expected.
The Buffs opened 7-0 but like Dayton, fell to Kansas back on Dec 7, 72-58 in Lawrence. A 79-76 home loss to Northern Iowa followed (Buffs were favored by 9 1/2 points), before Colorado won 56-48 at Colorado State and 83-64 at home to Prairie View A&M. Colorado features a trio of double-digit scorers. The 6-7 Tyler Bey (12.6 & 10.1) is a terrific player and is joined in double figures by PG Wright (11.3-5.1-3.9) and the 6-7 Schwartz (10.4). Some inside 'muscle' comes from the 6-8 Bailey (9.7& 6.2) and the 6-7 Siewert (7.7& 4.9), who comes off the bench. The Buffs are an excellent defensive team, allowing just 59.7 PPG (23rd).
Dayton plays decent defense as well, allowing opponents to score 66 .4 PPG (127th). That's "plenty good enough" when a team owns an offense shooting a nation-best 53.7 percent from the floor, translating into 84.8 PPG (6th). 6-9 sophomore Obi Tuppin (20.1 & 8.1) is having an outstanding season and he's joined by FOUR more double digit scorers. The 6-7 Mikesell (10.9 & 3.9) joins Toppin up front plus the Flyers have an excellent perimeter group. Junior guards Crutcher (12.5 & 5.5 APG) and Chatwood (8.5 & 4.0 APG) get help in the backcourt from two transfers, Landers (10.2 & 5.4) from Chattanooga and Watson (10.1) from Michigan.
The Buffaloes have struggled with their offensive flow for most of the season and are still averaging 15.5 turnovers per contest The Buffs are scoring just 68.7 PPG (257th), which is about 20 points less than Dayton, while Colorado's FG percentage of 41.2 (290th) is dwarfed by Dayton's 53.7 percent. If that's not all, the Flyers have a HUGE revenge motive here, as Colorado got the better of Dayton last March, when the schools met in the first round of the National Invitation Tournament in Boulder. The Buffaloes’ earned a hard-fought 78-73 victory in that one but there will be no home cookin' in this one. Flyers win "with room to spare!'
Good luck...Larry |
12-21-19 |
Kentucky +3.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 65-71 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Top-10 Showdown is on Kentucky at 5:15 ET.
No. 5 Ohio State (10-1) and No. 6 Kentucky (8-2) square off Saturday in a CBS Sports Classic game in Las Vegas, as each school looks to solidify its spot in the AP top-10. Both have been upset within the past week, as Ohio State lost 84-71 last Sunday at Minnesota and Kentucky lost 69-66 just this past Wednesday to Utah, right here in Las Vegas. Ohio State bounced back from the loss at Minnesota to handle Southeast Missouri State 80-48 on Tuesday but this is Kentucky's first game since that loss a few days ago, one in which the Wildcats went an abysmal 2-of-17 on threes.
Calipari has become the master of the "One-and-Done era" but this year's Kentucky team has a few more veteran players. Freshman guard Maxey (12.9-3.9-3.1) and fellow freshman, the 6-7 Brooks (7.1 & 4.0), are important cogs but sophomore PG Hagans (13.9-4.1-7.1) leads the team in scoring and assists. Sophomore guard Quickley (11.3) and 6-11 junior Richards (12.9 & 7.6) round out the double digit scorers. The 6-10 Montgomery (9.6 & 6.0) is a sophomore and the 6-9 Sestina (6.3 & 6.3) is a graduate transfer from Bucknell (he averaged 15.8 points and a Patriot League-best 8.5 rebounds a season ago).
Chris Holtmann took over at Butler for Brad Stevens and three NCAA bids later, got the job in Columbus. His first season was a 25-win one but last year, while the Buckeyes did get an NCAA bid, they lost in the first round to finish just 20-15. The centerpiece of Ohio St's team this season is 6-9 junior center Kaleb Wesson, a preseason All-Big Ten pick, who leads the team in scoring (14.3) and rebounding (9.1). Holtmann's team has great depth, as EIGHT players are averaging between 7.5 and 14.3 PPG. Two guards join Wesson in double digits, sophomore Duane Washington (11.4) and 5-star freshman recruit PJ Carton(10.7). Washington has missed the last two games with a rib injury and his absence was noticeable in the loss at Minnesota.
Washington is listed as questionable and Ohio St will be "in trouble" if he doesn't play. Either way, I'm "all over' Kentucky, which seems to be in the "perfect situation" for a bounce-back game after that awful outing vs Utah, right here in Las Vegas (no travel plans needed for this one!). Ohio State has had a great start to the season but the Buckeyes are shooting 41.6% on threes on the season (5th-best) and I just don't see that kind of accuracy continuing. Note that Kentucky hasn't lost TWO games in a row since Feb 10-14, 2018 at Texas A&M and Auburn. ANY points we get are a bonus.
Good luck...Larry |
12-21-19 |
Minnesota v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 86-66 |
Loss | -109 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Oklahoma St at 5:30 ET.
Richard Pitino has had a roller-coaster run at Minnesota, capturing the NIT (25 wins) in his first season but then falling to 18 wins and just EIGHT wins the next two seasons. The last three seasons have seen 24 and 22-win NCAA teams sandwiched around a 15-win season. This year's version of the Golden Gophers is just 5-5 but Minnesota looks to build on its first win over a Top-5 team since 2013, when it faces Oklahoma St as part of the BOK Center Basketball Showdown in Tulsa on Saturday. The Golden Gophers bounced back from a 72-52 setback to Iowa in their Big Ten Conference opener in a big way, as they handed the Buckeyes their first loss of the season, 84-71 last Sunday.
Oklahoma State ended a mini two-game skid with a 61-55 road win against Houston (also last Sunday), improving to 8-2 for the second time in three seasons under head coach Mike Boynton. The Cowboys held the Cougars to 31.1 percent shooting from the floor en route to their FOURTH consecutive win away from Stillwater, which is their longest streak since 2017. Oklahoma St, after winning 20 and 21 games in Boynton's first two seasons, was just 12-20 last year. However, all FIVE starters are back this season.
Pitino will sure misses guards Coffey (16.6) and McBrayer (8.9) plus big man Murphy (14.4 & 11.0), who gave the Minnesota program a combined 11 seasons. The 6-10 Oturu (17.6 & 11.2) is off to a strong start and is ranked eighth nationally in blocks per game (3.4). He has posted three double-doubles in his last four outings and is joined up front by the 6-9 Demir (7.7 & 4.0), a graduate transfer from Drexel. Minnesota owns an excellent backcourt trio, led by PG Carr (15.2-5.4-6.7), joined by Kalscheur (11.2) and Willis (11.0). Carr poured in a career-high 35 points to go along with a team-leading seven assists and a pair of steals in the win over Ohio State.
The 6-10 Yor Anei (12.1 & 6.3) had 18 points, eight rebounds and one blocked shot in the win against Houston, stretching his streak of games with at least one block to 27. The 6-7 Cameron McGriff (10.5 & 6.7) added 12 points and 10 rebounds against the Cougars to register the seventh double-double of his career, while guard Lindy Waters (13.4 & 4.9) scored 11 points to move within 41 of reaching 1,000. Guard Thomas Dziagwa (9.2) finished with 11 points. The previous three seniors were named tri-captains at the start of the season. Of issue is 6-4 sophomore guard Isaac Likekele (13.7-5.3-5.0), who missed his third straight game with an illness and his status for Saturday is unknown.
Still, I'm backing the Cowboys, who will playing near home in Tulsa. Expect a let down from Minnesota off its upset of Ohio St and it should NOT go unnoticed that Minnesota is 0-4 away from Minneapolis this season (0-3 road / 0-1 neutral). In contrast Oklahoma St is 4-0 away from Stillwater (2-0 road / 2-0 neutral) and with or without Likekele, should get revenge from an 83-76 setback to the Golden Gophers at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis last season.
Good luck...Larry |
12-18-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Loyola-Chicago -1.5 | Top | 70-78 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Loyola-Chicago at 6:30 ET.
"The Bryce Drew era" didn't last long at Vandy, as the former Valpo star player and head coach was let go after three seasons. He led Vandy to an NCAA appearance in his first season (winning a modest 19 games) but the 'Dores won just 12 games in his second season in Nashville (6-12 in the SEC), before going 9-23 last season, while becoming the first SEC school to winless in league play since 1953-54, when Vandy went 0-18 in SEC games. First-time head coach Jerry Stackhouse is now in charge and he'll lead 6-3 Vandy against Loyola-Chicago as part of the Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase in Phoenix at 6:30 ET, tonight. Few will forget Loyola-Chicago's great run to the Final 4 in 2018. Following that 32-win season, last year's team won a more modest 20 games, after losing in the NIT's first round. Gone are Custer and Townes, who won back-to-back POY honors in the MVC, as well as Ingram. However, three starters are back and the Ramblers have opened 7-3.
Vanderbilt is hoping to bounce back from a disappointing loss, as the Commodores went ice cold in the second half of their 61-56 home loss to Liberty on Saturday (note: Liberty is 12-0!). "They're learning and that's all we can ask for," Jerry Stackhouse told reporters. "Every game there is different scenarios that comes up that we can talk about and learn from to help these guys down the road." Vanderbilt was held to 35.3 percent shooting from the floor en route to finishing with a season-low points total against Liberty. The 6-6 Nesmith averaged 11.0 & 5.1 last season but has doubled his scoring output this season, leading the 'Dores with 22.3 PPG (adds 4.9 RPG). PG Lee (17.2-4.2-5.7) gives Vandy an excellent backcourt duo but the remaining roster is anything but.
The Ramblers' returning players are contributing as expected, led by 6-9 center Krutwig, who leads in scoring (16.5) and rebounding (7.5). Guard Williamson is averaging 11.4 & 4.1 plus the 6-7 Uguak adds 5.6 & 3.6 up front with Krutwig. New this year and making solid contributions are 6-6 swingman Hall (14.4 & 4.6), a JC transfer, plus freshman guard Kennedy (8.4). More good news for Loyola is that Keith Clemons, who averaged 15.1 points and 5.1 assists per game in 2018-19, while helping Vincennes to a 34-2 overall record and the NJCAA Division I national championship, just became eligible. He's averaging 9.3 PPG in helping the Ramblers win three in a row.
The Commodores scored at least 90 points in four of its first eight games, but have been limited to an average of 57 points in their last two losses. They'll face a Loyola team which allows a modest 62.8 PPG. Also note that Loyola is connecting on 51.6% from the floor, ranking 6th-best in the nation. The Ramblers haven't been a afraid when "stepping up in class," as they've won FOUR of their last five games against SEC opponents. This SEC opponent is coming off an 0-18 SEC record last season and will be looking for its first victory on a neutral court since Nov. 25, 2016. NOT!
Good luck...Larry
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12-17-19 |
Oklahoma v. Creighton -3 | Top | 73-83 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Creighton at 8:30 ET.
Lon Kruger led Kansas St to four NCAA tourneys in his four seasons in Manhattan and then led Florida to a Final 4 berth (1994) in his six years in Gainesville. Next was three NCAA berths at Illinois in a four-year stint and then four NCAA trips by UNLV in his seven years at Las Vegas. He's been at Oklahoma since the 2011-12 season and has led the Sooners to seven NCAA berths, including a Final 4 trip in 2016. This year's team is off to a 7-2 start, losing 73-54 to Stanford in a tourney at Kansas City and this past Saturday 80-75 at Wichita St. Oklahoma is 2-2 on its five-game road trip and hopes to head bacjk ro Norman on a winning note Tuesday, when the Sooners conclude their trip against Creighton. The Bluejays are coming off their most lopsided victory of the season on Friday, as they took down Texas Rio Grande Valley 89-58. Greg McDermott is in his 10th season as head coach of Creighton. He arrived in 2010-11 and led the Bluejays to a runner-up finish in the CBI. Three straight NCAA teams followed, as Creighton won 29, 28 and 27 games. His lone losing season came in 2014-15 but Creighton's won 20-plus games the last four years, with two NCAA appearances and two in the NIT. The Bluejays welcome the Sooners to Omaha at 8-2 on the season.
Oklahoma returned an excellent trio from last year's NCAA team but little else. Guard Reaves (17.1 & 5.6) is the team's leading scorer this season, joined by returning frontcourt players, the 6-7 Doolittle (16.8 & 8.3) and the 6-9 Manek (14.0 & 5.8). Doolittle had a game-high 22 points and team-high seven boards in the loss at Wichita St, while Reaves, who transferred from Wichita State after his sophomore season, struggled against his former school as he finished with 13 points on 5-of-13 shooting. Freshman De’Vion Harmon (9.0) had his best offensive performance since scoring 23 points on opening night against Texas-San Antonio, as the tied his career-high with three triples Saturday en route to 14 points. JC transfer Williams (7.1) and returning sophomore guard Bieniemy (5.0-3.8-3.0) round out Oklahoma's main contributors.
Junior Ty-Shon Alexander (17.1 7 6.1) had team-highs of 22 points, eight rebounds and three steals in the romp over Texas Rio Grande Valley. Sophomore guard Marcus Zegarowski never scored more than 17 points against a Division I opponent during his rookie year, but added 21 points for the Bluejays Friday and is scoring a team-best 19.4 PPG this season (3.6 RPG and 4.1 APG). Zegarowski and Alexander have both scored 20 or more points in each of the past two games and look to become the first pair of Creighton teammates since 1985 to hit the mark in three straight. Guard Mitch Ballock (12.5 & 5.2). is the team's third double digit scorer and joining that trio in the starting lineup are forwards Bishop (8.5 & 5.8) and Jefferson (7.2 & 4.6) while the 6-11 Jones (5.3 & 4.8) and guard Mitchell (5.4) are the top-two reserves.
Oklahoma had a NINE-day layoff prior to the Wichita St game but the team wasn't rusty, rather the Sooners faded down the stretch (hardly a good sign). It's another tough venue here, as Creighton is 7-0 at home this season, winning its games by an average of 16.1 PPG. More good news come Creighton's way in that highly touted transfer 6-5 guard Denzel Mahoney is eligible to play Tuesday and is expected to make his Bluejays debut after the junior led Southeast Missouri State in scoring with 19.3 PPG as a sophomore. More bad news in store for Kruger and Co. tonight.
Good luck...Larry |
12-16-19 |
Kent State v. Cal-Irvine | Top | 68-74 |
Loss | -109 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Kent St at 7:00 ET.
The UC-Irvine Anteaters won 31 games last season, including an upset of 4th-seeded Kansas St (as a No. 13 seed) in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Russell Turner enters his 10th season as UCI's head coach and while last season was his "best year," his teams have won 20-plus games in FIVE other seasons, including 28 in 2017 when the team was the runner-up in the CIT. Irvine was picked second in this year's Big West to UC-Santa Barbara but the team's non-conference schedule has seen an underwhelming performance, as the Anteaters are just 6-5 SU & ATS.
Rob Senderoff knows something about winning games too, as this marks his NINTH season at Kent St. FIVE of his first eight teams have won 20-plus games, including last year's 22-win team. Senderoff led the Golden Flashes to their first MAC Tournament Championship and NCAA Tournament appearance in eight years in 2017, but the team lost to UCLA in the first round. Kent was picked second in the MAC East this season behind Bowling Green but unlike UCI, Kent's non-conference play has been excellent, as the Golden Flashes come to El Paso for the Sun Bowl Invitational, 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS.
Kent features a trio of backcourt players all scoring in double digits. Senior PG Williams (14.0 & 4.2 APG) leads the group, followed by sophomore Roberts (13.3) and New Mexico graduate transfer, Simons (12.3 & 4.4). 6-9 junior Pippen (13.7 & 7.1) and 6-8 senior Whittington (10.4 & 6.7) are the team's top frontcourt players. UCI has seven-man rotation. The backcourt is manned by two seniors, PG Worku (11.4 & 4.2 APG) and Leonard (9.8). There is excellent depth up front, with the 6-9 Welp (14.2 & 6.5) and the 6-8 Rutherford (10.8 & 3.50 leading the way. 6-10 center Greene (8.9 & 6.5), SF Edgar (7.7 & 4.7) and 6-9 freshman Johnson (6.9 & 4.2) round out the top contributors.
Kent St's only loss has come ay=t Ohiuo St (Buckeyes lost Sunday for teh first time) and while the Golden Flashes have not played a challenging non-conference slate, they have won the games they should. KSU is a well-balance team (five players in double figures) and UCI is clearly more than just a 'step below' last year's team, as home losses to Detroit (86-74 as a 12-point favorite) and Cal-Baptist (68-60 as a 10-point favorite) attest.
Good luck...Larry
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12-14-19 |
Gonzaga v. Arizona -2 | Top | 84-80 |
Loss | -108 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Arizona at 10:00 ET. It's No. 6 Gonzaga and No, 15 Arizona squaring off in a Western showdown on Saturday on the Wildcats' home floor. This is the 10th meeting between the traditional powers with the Bulldogs winning six of the previous nine contests. Both schools enter 10-1, with Gonzaga's lone loss coming to now-No. 5 Michigan in the title game of the Battle 4 Atlantis and Arizona losing last Saturday 63-58 at now-No. 11 Baylor. Gonzaga has responded to that 18-point loss to Michigan with back-to-back wins, including last Saturday's 83-76 road victory over then-No. 22 Washington. Arizona Arizona took out the frustration of its loss to Baylor with a dominating 99-49 rout of Nebraska-Omaha on Wednesday. When Mark Few arrived in Spokane, the "Zags" had been to two NCAA tourneys in school history. All Few has done is go 20-for-20, entering this season on a streak of FIVE consecutive Sweet 16 appearances (reaching at least the Elite 8 in THREE of those five). Gonzaga lost a 'ton' off last year's team, including a pair of 6-8 forwards who both went in the first round of the NBA draft, Hachimura (19.7 & 6.5) and Clarke (16.9 & 8.6). Also moving on were guards Norvell (14.9-4.3-3.1) and Perkins (11.0 & 6.3 APG) but the refrain at Gonzaga is, "no worries." Gonzaga is 'loaded' up front with the 6-11 Petrusev (Serbia), who leads with 15.8 PPG and 8.5 RPG. The 6-7 Kispert (13.7), the 6-10 Tillie (13.7 & 5.0 in six games) plus 6-10 freshman Timme adds 10.4 & 5.5. A&M transfer Gilder (9.7), No. Texas transfer Woolridge (9.9-4.7-4.0) and returning guard Ayayi (10.1 & 6.0) are the main contributors on the perimeter. Gonzaga is averaging 85.9 PPG (5th) on 49.9% shooting. Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. As noted above, the Wildcats are 10-1 and currently ranked 15th. The freshman class includes the 6-11 Zeke Nnaji (15.9 & 6.7) plus guards Nico Mannion (14.9 & 6.2 APG) and Josh Green (12.9 & 5.1). 6-10 senior center Chase Jeter has scored in double digits in five straight games and is averaging 14.4 points on 26-of-36 shooting during the stretch to raise his season mark to 9.1 PPG (5.8 RPG). Returning guards Smith (9.1) and Baker (7.2) round out the main contributors. Arizona is right behind Gonzaga averaging 85.5 PPG (8th) while shooting 52.1 percent from the floor. Arizona needs a win over Gonzaga and the McKale Center has provided the Wildcats with one of college basketball's toughest home venues for 40-plus season (opened in 1973). Home team gets a BIG win! Good luck...Larry |
12-14-19 |
Oklahoma v. Wichita State -4 | Top | 75-80 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on Wichita St at 6:00 ET.
Lon Kruger led Kansas St to four NCAA tourneys in his four seasons in Manhattan and then led Florida to a Final 4 berth (1994) in his six years in Gainesville. Next was three NCAA berths at Illinois in a four-year stint and then four NCAA trips by UNLV in his seven years at Las Vegas. He's been at Oklahoma since the 2011-12 season and has led the Sooners to seven NCAA berths, including a Final 4 trip in 2016. This year's team is off to a 7-1 start, 73-54 to Stanford. in a tourney at Kansas City (Cardinal are ). Gregg Marshall led Winthrop to seven NCAA appearances in nine seasons and since taking over in Wichita, entered this season with a string of 10 consecutive seasons of 22 or more wins, including FOUR, 30-win seasons. In that 10-year span, the Shockers have been to seven NCAA tourneys (including a Final 4 appearance in 2013) and in three NITs (won title in 2011). The Shockers are 8-1 to open the current season, losing only to West Va, which has also opened 8-1. Wichita State hosts Oklahoma on Saturday, looking to complete the "Okie Double," having won 80-61 at Oklahoma State this past Sunday.
Oklahoma returned an excellent trio from last year's NCAA team but little else. Guard Reaves (17.6 & 5.5) is the team's leading score this season (he began his career at Wichita St), joined by returning frontcourt players, the 6-7 Doolittle (16.0 & 8.4) and the 6-9 Manek (14.0 & 5.8). Returning sophomore guard Bieniemy (5.3) is joined on the perimeter by freshman Harmon (8.4-3.3-2.4) and JC transfer Williams (7.5). With Reaves and Doolittle, the Sooners are one of just THREE teams from a major conference (along with Creighton and Vanderbilt) to have two players averaging 16 points or more.
The Shockers have no real star but own great balance, as SIX players are averaging at least eight points. PG Stevenson leads the way with 13.4 PPG. Four more guards chip in between 6.9 and 11.4 PPG plus up front, 6-8 junior forward Trey Wade, a transfer from UTEP, averages 9.6 points and a team-best 6.4 rebounds. Freshman guard Tyson Etienne (11.4) leads the way in that group, while fellow guard Burton (9.9-3.8-3.9) just misses averaging in double figures. Excellent news has come Wichita's way as the 6-11 F Jaime Echenique (9.2 & 6.0 last season) has returned from a hand injury to play the last five games, averaging 9.6 & 4.6 in just 16 MPG. The 6-8 Udeze (5.8 & 3.2) filled in for him but will likely see fewer minutes the rest of the way.
This Wichita St may be 'under the radar" now but watch out. Freshman Etienne is already reminding some of past Wichita State greats Ron Baker and Landry Shamet in how he moves without the ball and sets up open lanes for passes. He is shooting 46.2 percent from three-point range (good for 22nd nationally) and leads the American Athletic Conference with 24 three-pointers. His KenPom Efficiency Rating of 128.3 was second among Division I freshmen to Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis (131.8) and 19th overall. Erik Stevenson and Jamarius Burton have been the players most responsible for feeding Etienne and the rest of the Shockers as the duo has combined for 6.9 assists per game. Stevenson, a sophomore who leads the team in scoring and is second in rebounding, is one of the top players in Division I in assist to turnover ratio, ranking ninth at 3.86. Burton, also a sophomore, had a career-high 11 assists against Oklahoma State to climb to a tie for 26th in Division I with a 2.82 assist-turnover ratio.
Tough venue (Charles Koch Arena) here for the Sooners and note that Oklahoma's only previous true road game this season was an 82-80 'escape' at North Texas (as a 6 1/2-point favorite), a C-USA team that has opened the current season 4-6. Shockers complete that "Okie Double," winning with "room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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12-14-19 |
Oregon v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 71-70 |
Loss | -106 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Top-10 Showdown is on Michigan at 12:00 ET. No. 10 Oregon (7-2) will visit No. 5 Michigan (8-2) Saturday at 12:00 ET, playing at Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor for the first time in school history. Oregon won its first six games before, losing a pair of close games to ranked teams in the Battle 4 Atlantis, a one-point overtime heartbreaker to then-No. 8 Gonzaga and a four-point loss to then-No. 6 North Carolina. The Ducks have eased into their December schedule, as they have only played one game this month, an 89-64 victory over Hawaii on Saturday. Michigan was unranked heading into the season but vaulted to No. 4 after beating then No. 6 North Carolina and eighth-ranked Gonzaga to win the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament during Thanksgiving weekend. (note: Oregon lost to those same teams in that tourney). However, after losing to No. 1 Louisville in their first game with a ranking, the Wolverines bounced back with a home victory over Iowa on Dec 6 but then lost their big Ten road opener 71-62 at Illinois on Dec 13. Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and he likes this year's team (I agree). The Ducks are led by senior guard Payton Pritchard, who is averaging 18.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. He is one of two players nationally averaging at least 18 points, six assists and four rebounds (Western Carolina's Mason Faulkner). Senior guard Anthony Mathis (10.8) and junior guard Chris Duarte (10.3 & 5.4) are the Ducks' other double-figure scorers, although Oregon goes 'nine-deep." Sophomore guard Will Richardson comes off the bench and is up to 9.4 PPG after averaging 16.5 points over his last two games. Starting alongside of Pritchard, Mathis and Duarte are 6-8 freshman Walker (5.9 & 3.2) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro (5.1 & 6.0). John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (why?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over is former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). However, the cupboard was far from bare. 6-7 junior forward Isaiah Livers averages a team-best 14.8 points and is shooting 52 percent from the floor. 7-1 senior center Jon Teske averages 14.3 PPG plus a team-high 9.0 RPG and is set to play his 89th straight game in this contest. Senior PG Xavier Simpson checks in with a line of 12.0-4.4-8.6 and junior guard Eli Brooks adds 11.7 PPG. Other key contributors are the 6-8 Wagner (7.7 & 3.3) and guard DeJulius (7.4 & 3.1). I'm a HUGE fan of Altman but I noted above that Oregon will be playing in Ann Arbor for the first-time ever but more notable, this is the Ducks' first true road game this season. In fact, it is Oregon's LONE true road game in 2019 (of 13), as the Ducks next head out on the road for their Pac-12 opener Jan 2 at Colorado. I mentioned above that Oregon's two losses came to Gonzaga and North Carolina in the Bahamas and while "comparison scores" can often be deceiving, it's hard NOT to note that Michigan beat Gonzaga 82-64 and beat North Carolina, 73-64. Oregon's first visit to Crisler Arena "dos NOT end well!" Good luck...Larry |
12-12-19 |
Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 84-68 |
Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Iowa St at 8:00 ET.
It's 73rd edition of the Cy-Hawk series on Thursday, as 7-3 Iowa visits Ames to take on 6-3 Iowa State. Iowa bounced back from a loss to then-No. 4 Michigan on Friday with a 72-52 victory over Minnesota on Monday to pick up its first Big Ten win. The Hawkeyes had surrendered more than 100 points against the Wolverines (103-91) in their conference opener, but held the Golden Gophers to their lowest scoring output since 2007 in the rivalry. As for the Cyclones, they avenged an 84-76 loss to then-No. 13 Seton Hall in the Battle 4 Atlantis on Nov 29 with a 77-66 victory over the the now-No. 22 Pirates on Sunday to record their first win over a top-25 team this season.
Iowa's Fran McCaffrey came to Iowa back in the 2010-11 season (off three straight NCAA trips with Siena). His 2013 team was the NIT runner-up and he then led the Hawkeyes to three straight NCAAs. Iowa missed the "Big Dance" the next two years but last year's 23-win team was back in. The 6-11 Garza (22.5 & 9.8) is the team's best player and his only help up front comes from the 6-10 Kriener (6.1 & 4.2). Iowa's perimeter group is 'deep,' led by Wieskamp (11.9 & 5.4), Fredrick (10.4) , Bohannon (8.4) and McCaffrey's son, Connor (7.7-3.5-4.1).
Iowa St finished last year's regular season on a 2-6 run but then won three games in three days to win the Big 12 tourney for the FOURTH time in the last six years. However, Steve Prohm lost his top-three scorers from last year's team. However, Iowa St has an excellent guard trio in PG Haliburton (16.2-6.0-8.2), Penn St graduate transfer Bolton (15.3) and Nixon (10.2). The 6-10 Conditt (10.6 & 5.3), the 6-8 Young (9.7 & 4.0) and the 6-9 6-9 Jacobson (9.1 & 7.6) make up a solid frontcourt. Conditt had 17 points to go along with six rebounds and five blocks to help the Cyclones improve to 5-0 at home this season in the win over Seton Hall, while Haliburton added 17-6-5 to finish in double figures for the EIGHTH time in nine games. Bolton also scored 17 in that contest.
ISU improved to 5-0 at home on the young season and has won 12 straight at home over non-conference opponents. How does one ignore that the home team has won 14 of the last 16 meetings in the series? What's more, Iowa is looking for its first win at Hilton Coliseum (in Ames) in 16 years! Lay the modest points!
Good luck...Larry
|
12-11-19 |
Fresno State v. California +2 | Top | 63-69 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Cal 10:00 ET.
Mark Fox spent five years at Nevada where he led the Wolf Pack to 20-win seasons each year and three NCAA tourneys. He left for Georgia but in NINE years, won 20 games just four times (a high of 21) and led the Bulldogs to just two NCAA bids. He was NOT offered a 10th year last March but by the end of the month, Cal hired him. The Bears opened the season on a high note with four straight wins but have dropped four of their last five contests, after last Saturday’s 71-52 loss at Santa Clara.
Cal welcomes Fresno State to Berkeley on Wednesday. Justin Hutson was an assistant at San Diego State through April of 2018 but was named the 21st head coach in Fresno State history, replacing Rodney Terry, who departed for the head coaching position at UTEP. The Bulldogs went 23-9 last season but did NOT play in the postseason. FSU has struggled in the early going of this season, opening 2-6, including going 0-4 on the road.
That said, the Bulldogs turned in an encouraging outing in last Saturday’s 77-70 overtime loss at Utah State, as 6-8 senior Nate Grimes recorded his third straight double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds (he leads the team in scoring at 13.0 PPG and in rebounding at 9.9 per game). Senior guard New Williams (8.2 & 3.8) broke out of a shooting slump by scoring a career-high 26 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the floor and 4-of-9 from beyond the arc. Freshman guard Jarred Hyder ranks second on the team in scoring at 12.7 PPG and 6-10 freshman Robinson checks in at 9.9 & 5.8.
Cal's backcourt is led by returning guards Bradley (17.0 & 4.1) and Austin (6.7) plus transfer South, who joins Bradley as the only other double digit scorer at 10.9 PPG. Starting up front are a pair of 6-8 returning players in Anticevich (8.4 & 6.7) and Kelly (7.0 & 4.9). Cal is coming off eight-win seasons in back-to-back years and was picked to finish last in the Pac-12 preseason poll. Cal opened 4-0 but was not up to the task of taking on Duke and Texas at MSG on Nov 21 and 22. However, the Bears ARE improved and Fresno looks like the type of opponent they should be able to handle. Cal is 5-0 at home and is playing with revenge from last season's 95-73 loss in Fresno. Just why is Fresno, an 0-4 team on the road to open the current season, a favorite??
Good luck...Larry
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12-10-19 |
Butler v. Baylor -5 | Top | 52-53 |
Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Baylor at 9:00 ET.
Butler has had a 'rich' recent history on the basketball court. The Bulldogs made six NCAA trips from 1997-2007, before Brad Stevens took them to FIVE tourneys in six years, including back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2010 and 2011. Chris Holtmann led Butler to three straight NCAA appearances from 2015-17 and LaVell Jordan followed with an NCAA berth in 2018 but the Bulldogs finished just 16-17 last season. However, Butler opened 7-0 and on Dec 2 entered the AP poll at No. 24, ending a span of 43 consecutive polls on "the outside, looking in!'Butler added two more wins last week (now 9-0 and now ranked 18th, including an impressive 76-62 home win over Florida last Saturday. Butler's won five games this season against major conference teams and will look to add a sixth 'scalp' to its resume tonight, as the Bulldogs play No.11 Baylor in Waco. Baylor played a home game against then-No. 12 Arizona (9-0) on Saturday, but it felt more like a road game due to the Arizona fans making the trip from Tempe and most of the Bears fans focused on the Big 12 football championship game starting at the same time. However, the Bears won 63-58, thanks to an early 15-0 run and some tough defense. It was Baylor's second win over a ranked team this season, as the Bears beat then-No. 17 Villanova 87-78 in Myrtle Beach back on Nov 24. Baylor jumped SEVEN spots in the Monday's latest AP poll and enter this contest ranked 11th.
The Bulldogs beat Florida by holding the Gators to 6-of-26 beyond the arc and limiting them to just FOUR offensive rebounds. PG Aaron Thompson (7.2-3.1- 6.1) led the way against the Gators with a career-high 16 points on 6-of-7 shooting and added seven assists and four rebounds, while 6-6 forward Sean McDermott (11.0 & 5.1) matched Thompson with 16 points, while grabbing seven rebounds. Those two are joined in the starting lineup by leading scorer Baldwin (16.9 & 4.2), who starts in the backourt with Thompson. Starting up front with McDermott are the 6-7 Nze (11.4 & 7.2) and the 6-9 Golden (8.8 & 4.0). Coming off the bench is 6-7 Duke transfer Tucker, who became eligible last season but is finally fulfilling expectations by adding 9.4 PPG.
Baylor has been greatly helped by two transfers this season, guard MaCio Teague (15.4 & 5.0), who led the Bears with 19 points in the 63-58 victory Saturday over Arizona. Mitchell (8.6) is an Auburn transfer and joins a deep backcourt which also features leading scorer Butler (18.6), Bandoo (8.8 & 4.4) and Vital (6.4 & 5.6). The 6-8 Gillespie (9.4 & 9.1) has been the team's best frontcourt player but the good news is that the 6-10 Clark (14.6 & 6.3 last season before being lost for the year to an injury) is back, averaging 5.0 & 3.5 in five games (he's working his way back).
Baylor head coach Scott Drew took the head coaching position at Baylor after the resignation of Dave Bliss due to scandal. Four years of sanctions later, Drew got things turned around and Baylor has had 12 straight winning seasons, making eight NCAA tourneys plus finishing as runner-up in the 2009 NIT and winning it in 2013. Both Baylor and Butler have surprised so far, but I like the Bears here, who 'take down' a second straight ranked and unbeaten opponent. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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12-08-19 |
Seton Hall v. Iowa State | Top | 66-76 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Iowa St at 9:00 ET.
Iowa State and Seton Hall have each played basketball for over 100 years but their paths had never crossed until the day after Thanksgiving in the Bahamas last month, when the schools met in the fifth-place game of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Seton Hall won that contest 84-76 and the 6-2 Pirates (ranked 16th in the latest AP poll) visit Ames, Iowa for a rematch with the 5-3 Cyclones, tonight. The Hall has not played since that Nov 29th game, while Iowa St was able to get back on track with Wednesday's 79-61 home victory over Missouri-Kansas City.
Seton Hall's Myles Powell, who was voted the preseason Big East Player of the Year and he's currently a potential All-American and Naismith Award candidate. The senior gyard is averaging 23.4 & 4.1 to lead the Pirtaes and just one other player, the 6-11 Sandro Mamukelashvili (12.3 & 5.3), is averaging in double digits. Powell scored 24 points the last time against Iowa St, while Mamukelashvili had season-high 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting in that contest. Guard McKnight (9.5 & 4.4 APG) and Cale (6.8 & 4.6) start in the backcourt with Powell, while the 7-2 Gill (4.9 & 5.8) joins Mamukelashvili up front.
Iowa St finished last year's regular season on a 2-6 run but then won three games in three days to win the Big 12 tourney for the FOURTH time in the last six years. However, Steve Prohm lost his top-three scorers from last year's team. However, Iowa St has an excellent guard trio in PG Haliburton (16.1-6.0-8.6), Penn St graduate transfer Bolton (15.1) and Nixon (10.3). Haliburton is the only player in the nation with at least 120 points, 65 assists, 45 rebounds and 20 steals. The 6-9 Michael Jacobson (9.6 & 7.3) was held scoreless for the first time this season against Seton Hall but responded with 19 points on 8-of-9 shooting and added a career-high tying three steals in 28 minutes against UMKC. His frontcourt partner is the 6-8 Solomon Young (9.9 & 3,6).
I'm a fan of Seton Hall and its head coach (Kevin Willard) and will note that the Pirates' only two losses this season have come in games in which they gave up late leads to ranked opponents, Michigan St and Oregon. However, Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum is a tough venue for any visitor, no less one which hasn't played in NINE days and is attempting to beat the Cyclones for a SECOND straight time. Let me note that in the teams' meeting in the Bahamas, Iowa St led by nine points in the first half, before Seton Hall used a 13-1 run midway through the second half break it open. ISU's guard trio combined for 54 points in that Nov 29th meeting and should be ready for a similar effort here at home, while big men Jacobson and Young are SURE to improve on their combined 3 of 9 shooting. "Home is where the heart is," and is also where Iowa St will serve up some 'sweet payback!'
Good luck...Larry |
12-07-19 |
Cincinnati v. Xavier -6 | Top | 66-73 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Xavier at 5:00 ET. The 6-2 Cincinnati Bearcats and the 8-1 Xavier Musketeers are set for their annual Crosstown Shootout to be played at on Xavier's homecourt (Cintas Center). This is a bitter rivalry, as the two schools are separated by three miles in Cincinnati, making the archrivalry one of the closest major rivalries in the country. The game was first played in 1927 and has been played every year since 1946..
The Bearcats are off a 28-7 season, while making their NINTH straight NCAA appearance. However, head coach Mick Cronin has "taken his talents" to Westwood (UCLA), after a terrific 13-year run at Cincinnati. Taking over is John Brannen, who comes from No. Kentucky, where he won 20-plus games in each of the last three seasons, earning the Norse NCAA bids in 2017 and 2019. Senior guard Jarron Cumberland, was the 2019 American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, averaging 18.8-4.4-3.6 assists. He was the ONLY Cincy player to average in double digits last season. Guards Jenifer and Broome (8.6 & 8.3 PPG) graduated and the 6-11 Brooks (8.1 & 6.3) transferred to Miami. Returning starters joining Cumberland are senior 6-8 forward Tre Scott and junior guard Keith Williams However, the Bearcats had an influx of roster additions including 7-1 transfer Chris Vogt, who followed Brannen from Northern Kentucky. Two highly regarded freshman guards, Zach Harvey and Mika Adams-Woods plus Jarron Cumberland's cousin Jaevin, a graduate transfer from Oakland (17.2 PPG), make up Cincy's core this season.
However, Bearcats head coach Brannen listed standout Jarron Cumberland as questionable with a hip injury. Cumberland (14.3) wasn't able to practice Thursday after leaving Cincinnati's victory over Vermont on Tuesday. The senior guard also missed a game with an ankle injury and another as a disciplinary measure for failing to meet practice and preparation standards (trouble in 'paradise?'). The 7-1 Vogt (12.9 & 6.9) has been an excellent new addition, while returning guard Williams (12.8 & 4.1) and 6-8 senior Scott (9.4 & 10.1) have been very solid. Jaevin Cumberland (11.0) has played well but freshman guards Zach Harvey and Mika Adams-Woods have combined to average 6.3 PPG.
Travis Steele was hired by Sean Miller at Xavier for the 2008-09 season. He was retained by Chris Mack after Miller accepted the Arizona head coaching position and has been a part of a Musketeers program that has been to eight NCAA tournaments, including an Elite Eight run in 2017. Steele was promoted to head coach when Mack took the Louisville job. Following Miller and Mack was NOT expected to be easy and it wasn't. However, Xavier rallied to win EIGHT of its final 11 regular season games and went to a postseason tourney (NIT) for the 13th time in 14 seasons. Xavier lost just ONE starter off last year's team, the 6-11 Hankins who averaged 10.6 & 5.3. The Musketeers feature a terrific forward duo in the 6-7 Marshall (15.4-5.8-3.8) and the 6-9 Jones (14.2 & 9.4). Guard Paul Scruggs (15.1 7 4.3) completes Xavier's "Big Three." Supporting that trio have senior guard Goodin (6.8), 6-9 freshman Zach Freemantle (6.8 & 4.0) and 6-8 Ohio U transfer Jason Carter (6.7 & 5.6). Good news comes in that freshman guard KyKy Tandy scored 10 points in Tuesday's win over Green Bay. It was his second game of the season, after returning from an injury.
Xavier may have been looking ahead to this revenge game in its non-covering, lackluster 84-71 Tuesday home win Green Bay but it's safe to say (bet?) that the Musketeers will be HIGHLY motivated after being held to their lowest point total since 2012 in last year's 'ugly' 62-47 loss at Cincy. Who knows the status of Cincy's Jarron Cumberland but we DO know that Xavier has won SEVEN straight at the Cintas Center in the series and has gone 92-16 (.852) at home since joining the Big East back at the start of the 2013-14 season. REVENGE works in a "big way" in this Rivalry Rout!
Good luck...Larry
|
12-07-19 |
Indiana v. Wisconsin +1 | Top | 64-84 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Game of the Month (Big Ten) is on Wisconsin at 4:30 ET.
Archie Miller began his third season as Indiana's head coach and KNEW he had better improve on the 16 and 19-win seasons the Hoosiers delivered in his first two seasons at Bloomington. Indiana lost two NBA players from last year's team, guard Langford (16.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Morgan (15.5 & 8.2), but this year's team is off to an 8-0 start. That said, one must note that the Hoosiers have played all EIGHT games at Assembly Hall and until cruising past No. 17 Florida State 80-64 on Tuesday as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Indiana hadn't really been tested. As for Wisconsin, the Badgers opened 4-1 (lone loss in OT to St Mary's) but the lost a pair of games in the Legends Classic to Richmond (62-52) and New Mexico (59-50), before going 5-of-23 from three-point range in 69-54 Wednesday loss at NC State as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Veteran returning guards Green (15.8) and Durham (12.6) give Indiana a solid backcourt, while highly-touted 6-9 freshman Jackson-Davis (15.5 & 9.4) has been as good as advertised. He's joined up front by returning 6-7 forward Smith (14.3 & 5.1) and 6-11 Butler graduate transfer Brunk (7.9 & 4.1). PG Rob Phinisee, who is averaging nine points and 4.5 assists this season, missed his fourth straight game with an ankle injury, but may be ready to return to the lineup.
The Badgers need to "stop the bleeding" and do it FAST! Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and while the Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ ((17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team, the Badgers have a solid returning core. The 6-11 Reuvers (14.9 & 5.4) is not Happ but he's an excellent big man. He's joined up front by the 6-8 Ford (10.1 & 5.0) plus a quartet of guards round out Wisconsin's six-man rotation. Davison (11.0 & 4.), King (10.4 & 4.0), Trice (8.4 & 4.8) and Pitzl (7.3 & 5.3) are all seasoned players. Don't sell Wisconsin short, just yet. The whole is always greater than the sum of its parts with the Badgers!
Indiana is off to an 8-0 start and just routed No. 17 FSU, so why are the Hoosiers pick'em at 4-4 Wisconsin, which enters on a three-game losing streak? The answer lies in the fact that the Hoosiers have lost their last 16 visits to Wisconsin Kohl Center. Make that 17 losses in a row, as Indiana finds a road game "not to its liking."
Good luck...Larry
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12-06-19 |
Providence v. Rhode Island -1 | Top | 61-75 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Rhode Island at 7:00 ET. State rivals Providence and Rhode Island are separated by about 30 miles but the two schools play in different leagues, as Providence is a member of the Big East and Rhode Island a member of the Atlantic-10. However, both schools come off similar years, as the Friars were 18-16 in the 2018-19 season, while the Rams went 18-15. Similarly, each school returned all FIVE starters from a year ago but also of note is that both teams have not gotten off to good starts. Providence has started just 5-4 and Rhode Island has opened 5-3. Providence, predicted to finish fourth in the Big East , just beat Pepperdine 80-77 in the seventh-place game of the Wooden Legacy on Sunday but prior to that, had dropped three in a row to mid-major programs. The Rams' most recent game was also last Sunday, when they put a scare into 7-0 West Va on the road, before settling for an 86-81 loss (more in a bit). All-Big East selection Alpha Diallo hasn't been able to build on his impressive junior campaign. The 6-7 guard struggled for the second straight game in Sunday's close win over Pepperdine, connecting on just 8 of 26 shots (30.8%) in that span. That said, he does lead the team in scoring (13.2) and rebounding (8.9). Returning guards Duke (12.9- 4.6-4.1), White (9.3) and Reeves (6.8) have been joined on the perimeter by have been joined by graduate transfer Pipkins (8.8 & 5.2 APG). The 6-7 Holt (8.7 & 5.2) is happy that 6-10 center Watson is finally back on the court after an injury, as he chipped in 15 points off the bench against the Waves. He has averaged 9.0 PPG in playing the last five games. Rhode Island's Fatts Russell (21.1-4.9-3.5) became the first Ram since Tavorris Bell (2000-01) to score at least 20 points in six straight games, after erupting for a season-high 32 against West Virginia. The 6-8 Cyril Langevine (10.5-10.5) is one of just three A-10 players averaging a double-double. Joining those two in scoring double digits are guards Dowtin (13.9) and Martin (10.6 & 5.3). It's true that Providence has 'owned' this series recently (Friars have won EIGHT of the last nine meetings) but the under-performing Friars look VERY vulnerable in this one. The Friars 'limp' into their annual showdown with the Rams on a 1-6 ATS run, with the team's lone "cover" coming against Merrimack. Rhode Island may be just 5-3 but its losses have come against two unbeatens on the road, at West Va (see above) and at now-No. 3 Maryland (9-0) plus against the SEC's LSU (6-2) in the Jamaica Classic. The Rams are 4-0 SU at home in the early going and get a "break-through win" against the Friars here, moving to 5-0. Good luck...Larry |
12-04-19 |
Ohio State v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 74-49 |
Loss | -109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* play is on North Carolina at 9:30 ET. Ohio St's Chris Holtmann took over at Butler for Brad Stevens and three NCAA bids later, got the job in Columbus. His first season was a 25-win one but last year, while the Buckeyes did get an NCAA bid, they lost in the first round to finish just 20-15. The Buckeyes opened teh season ranked 18th in the AP's preseason poll but with an impressive 7-0 start (including wins over Cincy and Villanova), Ohio St heads to Chapel Hill tonight ranked 6th in the latest AP poll. Hosting the buckeyes in tonight's ACC/Big Ten Challenge with be the North Carolina Tar Heels, coached by some guy named Roy Williams (you may have heard of him?). North Carolina opened 9th in the preseason and enters this game 6-1 and ranked 7th. The Tar Heels finished third at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, losing to Michigan 73-64 on Thanksgiving but they rebounded with a satisfying 78-74 win over then-No. 11 Oregon on Friday, holding the Ducks to 35.7 percent shooting from the floor.
The young Buckeyes entered the week second in the nation in FG percentage defense (32.7), sixth in scoring defense (52.7) and are making 39.7 percent from three-point range with a balanced offense that features seven players averaging between 7.3-12.7 PPG. The centerpiece of Ohio St's team is 6-9 junior center Kaleb Wesson, a preseason All-Big Ten pick who shed some weight and is more mobile. He leads the team in scoring (12.7), rebounding (9.3) and blocks (1.7). Freshman D.J. Carton adds 10.4 points and 2.9 assists, while sophomore guard Duane Washington Jr. checks in averaging 10.1 PPG (he's 14-of-27 from three-point range. 6-8 junior forward Kyle Young has also been quite efficient, averaging 8.9 points on 65.8 percent shooting from the floor, while grabbing 6.6 RPG.
The Tar Heels lost four starters from last year's team but freshman PG Anthony (20.7-7.3-4.0) and 6-10 freshman Bacot (11.7 & 9.6) are already looking like seasoned vets. Bacot scored a season-high 23 against Oregon and became the first Tar Heel to record at least 23 points along with 12 rebounds and six blocks since 1995 when Rasheed Wallace accomplished the feat. Offering not only experience but real contributions are 6-9 junior forward Garrison Brooks (12.9 & 8.3) plus senior G Brandon Robinson, who returned from a preseason ankle injury to average 11.3-4.-0-3.3 with just three turnovers in three games at the Battle 4 Atlantis tourney.
Ohio St may be 7-0 but the Buckeyes have yet to leave Columbus. They do so here and the "Dean Dome" is no place to play one's initial true road game of a season. The Tar Heels have won 12 of the 14 previous meetings with the Buckeyes, including the last seven, after an 86-72 triumph at home in 2017. That margin sound "just about right," here!
Good luck...Larry
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12-04-19 |
Virginia v. Purdue OVER 102 | Top | 40-69 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Virginia/Purdue Over at 7:15 ET.
Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014).Purdue is coming off a 26-win season, after reaching the Elite 8. Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from last year's team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0), but he Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll. However, Purdue welcomes 7-0 Virginia (current No. 5 in the latest AP poll) to Mackey Arena with just a 4-3 record.
The Cavaliers have held seven straight opponents to 55 points or less, including a defensive masterpiece against Maine (46-26), which matched a program record for the fewest amount of points allowed. Virginia ranks first in both points allowed (40.3) and defensive FG percentage (28.8). Gone from last year's champs are are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.50, Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). This season' team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.3 & 8.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.6-4.7-5.0). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.9 & 7.3) and the 7-1 Huff (10.3 & 7.4).
Purdue clearly misses Edwards, although Proctor (14.6) and Hunter (10.3) make a pair of quality guards. The 7-3 Haarms (11.7 & 6.4) and the 6-9 Wheeler (6.4 & 7.1) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all seven opponents to 70 points or less to start the season (58.4 PPG on the season to ranks 18th nationally). Haarms went 6-of-6 from the floor en route to a team-high 16 points to go along with eight rebounds against Florida State, but it wasn't enough as the Boilermakers were doomed by a 33.9 percent shooting performance from the floor in the 63-60 OT loss. Aaron Wheeler and Evan Boudreaux (4.4 & 3.3) combined for six points on 2-of-18 shooting, including 0-for-8 from three-point range, as Purdue missed seven of its eight attempts from the floor and had five turnovers in overtime.
Virginia looks to extend its winning streak against Big Ten foes to 13 games and note that win No. 12 in that streak came against Purdue in last year's South Region Final, when the Cavs beat the Boilermakers 80-75 in OT. Purdue is playing with revenge plus since the school's last losing season (15-17 back in 2013-14), the Boilermakers have an impressive 80-9 record at Mackey Arena. Purdue will not have to deal with Virginia's multi-talented 6-8 Key, who underwent wrist surgery after suffering the injury in the championship game of the Air Force Reserve Tip-Off against Arizona State on Nov. 24. On a positive note for Virginia, the Cavs hope that sophomore swingman Kody Stattmann (5.3 PPG) can return after missing four games with an illness. Bottom line for me is that I can't resist Goin' Over this LOW over/under total, despite the defensive credentials of BOTH teams. Remember, last year's Elite 8 meeting was tied at 70-all heading into OT, which is almost six 'TDs' higher than the opening over/under number on tonight's contest (opened 101).
Good luck...Larry
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12-03-19 |
Butler v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 67-58 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET.
As all know, Butler has had a 'rich' recent history on the basketball court. The Bulldogs made six NCAA trips from 1997-2007, before Brad Stevens took them to FIVE tourneys in six yeas, including back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2010 and 2011. Chris Holtmann led Butler to three straight NCAA appearances from 2015-17 and LaVell Jordan followed with an NCAA berth in 2018 but the Bulldogs finished just 16-17 last season. However, after hanging on to defeat Stanford 68-67 in the Hall of Fame Classic championship game, Butler sits 7-0 and Monday entered the AP poll at No. 24, ending a span of 43 consecutive polls on "the outside, looking in!' Kermit Davis took Idaho and Middle Tenn St to the "Big Dance" and in his first year at Ole Miss, won 20 games before losing in the NCAA's first round. Ole Miss got off to a nice 5-1 start (lone loss was by one point to current No. 15 Memphis) but the Rebels fell WAAAAY short against Oklahoma State, scoring a season low in a 78-37 defeat in the NIT Tip-Off title game. this past Friday at Barclays Center.
Butler guard Kamar Baldwin (15.6 & 4.4) was named the MVP of the Hall of Fame Classic and has a veteran backourt partner in PG Thompson (6.4 & 6.4 APG). Joining Baldwin in double figures are 6-7 Milwaukee transfer Bryce Nze (12.7 & 7.6) and 6-6 redshirt senior forward Sean McDermott (10.6 & 5.0) . Butler lost the 6-10 Folwer (5.5 & 3.7) to graduation and the 6-11 Brunt (7.6 & 3.6) to Indiana (graduate transfer) but the 6-9 Golden (9.6 & 4.3) and the 6-7 Tucker (9.0 $ 2.5) are doing just fine.
Ole Miss was just plain awful against OSU, shooting 25.9% for the game, including a hard-to-believe 1-of-20 from three-point range. Still, guard Breein Tyree (15.1 & 4.1) and the 6-7 KJ Buffen (12.4 & & 7.4) were named to the NIT Tip-Off All-Tournament Team. 6-7 sophomore guard Blake Hinson has averaged 12.3 & 5.0 in his three games since returning to the team following a health scare plus PG Shuler (9.4-4.0-2.9) and the 6-10 Sy (6.6 & 4.6) round out a solid starting-five.
Ole Miss will be glad to be back in Oxford, where the Rebels have opened 4-0, outscoring opponents 72.2-to-52.0 PPG. Of course, Butler is BY FAR the best visitor to come to The Pavilion at Ole Miss but let me point out that this is Butler's first true road game of the current season. Kermit will also remind his team that Ole Miss lost a hard-fought 83-76 contest in Hinkle Fieldhouse last November, in just the second game of the season. Ole Miss has SEVEN games under its belt going into this one and is not only playing with "revenge" but also to "make up for" that horrible performance against Okla St. GREAT spot for the Rebs!
Good luck...Larry
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12-02-19 |
Clemson v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 60-78 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Minnesota at 9:00 ET. The Big Ten-ACC Challenge gets underway Monday with a pair of games, including 5-2 Clemson visiting 3-4 Minnesota. Clemson opened the season with a 67-70 home loss to Va Tech but then won FIVE in row, including erasing a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually edge TCU 62-60 on Nov 24th in Las Vegas. However, the Tigers then lost two nights later 71-67 to Colorado, which is 6-0 and ranked 21st in the most recent AP poll. The Golden Gophers are coming off a 73-68 home loss to DePaul (Nov 29) and already had losses to Oklahoma, Butler and Utah on their resume. The loss to Colorado was the first time this season that the Tigers had allowed an opponent to reach 70 points. "Our guys are getting better," head coach Brad Brownell told reporters. "We're fighting. We've got to get better at executing a few things, but we're getting there. Our players work hard for us, and I love coaching them." 6-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (11.9 & 8.9) is the lone returning starter for the Tigers but Clemson's best player is 6-6 senior forward Tevin Mack (15.4 & 5.6), a grad transfer from Alabama. Sophomore guard John Newman III (11.6 PPG) and freshman PG Al-Amir Dawes (10.1 & 3.4 APG) are Clemson's other double digit scorers. Clemson's strength is its defense, allowing 61.0 PPG (41st) on 37.5% shooting (34th). Richard Pitino will sure miss guards Coffey (16.6) and McBrayer (8.9) plus big man Murphy (14.4 & 11.0), who gave the Minnesota program a combined 11 seasons. However, Pitino likes his team and the team's 3-4 start is unacceptable. The 6-10 Oturu (17.0 & 11;9) is off to a strong start and is joined up front by the 6-9 Demir (7.7 & 3.7), a graduate transfer from Drexel. Minnesota owns an excellent backcourt trio, led by PG Carr (13.0-5.9-6.3), joined by Willis (12.9) and Kalscheur (11.7). Pitino has had a roller-coaster run at Minnesota, capturing the NIT (25 wins) in his first season but then falling to 18 wins and just EIGHT wins the next two seasons. The last three seasons have seen 24 and 22-win NCAA teams sandwiched around a 15-win season. This game IS important, as Minnesota opens Big Ten play with a game at Iowa (Dec 9) and the home to Ohio St (7-0 and ranked 10th) on Dec 15. Clemson is beatable and is traveling back from a three-day stay in Las Vegas, If Minnesota can't win here, it will be a LONG season for "little Ricky." Good luck...Larry |
11-29-19 |
Utah State v. St. Mary's -3 | Top | 73-81 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on St Mary's at 11:30 ET.
Tim Duryea was on Stew Morrill's staff at Utah St for 14 seasons, a span in which the Aggies made six NCAA Tournaments and won five conference championships (the Big West in 2003 and Western Athletic Conference four straight years from 2008 to 2011). Duryea was hired as head coach on March 30, 2015, after Morrill retired. However, he was just 47-49 over three seasons and was fired. Taking over was Craig Smith and in just his first season at the school, he led the Aggies to a share of the Mountain West regular-season title, as well as the tournament title, which earned Utah St its first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since 2011 (28 wins were tied for the 3rd-most in school history). The Aggies have opened the current season 7-0 and will visit Moraga, Ca to take on the 6-1 St Mary's Gaels, ranked 15th in the latest AP poll. St Mary's head coach Randy Bennett has led the Gaels for 18 years, winning 20-plus games in each of the last 12. The Gaels are coming off a season in which they finally beat Gonzaga in the WCC championship game, earning their 7th NCAA bid under Bennett. The previous season, St Mary's 28 wins were not enough to earn them an at-large NCAA bid.
Utah State is off to its best start since 1961. The Aggies are holding opponents to 57.7 PPG during their 7-0 start, ranking 14th in the nation in points allowed. The Aggies start a trio of guards in Merrill (16.6-4.6-4.7), Miller (10.6) and Porter (6.0 & 3.9 APG). Without injured 7-0 sophomore center Neemias Queta (11.8 & 8.9 last season), the reigning Mountain West defensive player of the year, the 6-7 Bean (13.4 & 11.4) and 6-7 JC transfer Anderson (14.7 & 6.3) are "stepping up" in the frontcourt. Anderson has been coming off the bench, as is guard Brito, who is also averaging in double digits at 11.7 PPG. Utah St is known for its defense but the Aggies are averaging 82.6 PPG (32nd).
The Gaels opened with a neutral-site win over Wisconsin but then lost 61-59 at home to Wofford (as nearly a 3-'TD' favorite), before ripping off FIVE straight wins. St Mary's is led by senior guard Jordan Ford, who averages a team-high 20.7 PPG. PG Kusher (7.5 & 3.8 APG) is steady backcourt partner for Ford plus a trio of big men give Bennett a solid frontline. It consists of the 6-8 Fitts (13.1 & 6.0), the 6-6 Krebs (12.1 & 4.3) and the 6-10 Tass (7.1 & 4.7). More good news comes in that the team got a welcome boost from 7-3 center Aaron Menzies, who made his first career start for the Gaels in their last game, recording nine points and seven rebounds in 13 minutes.
Utah St just claimed the Jamaica Classic title last week with victories over LSU and North Texas but this marks the team's first true road game. Moraga has not been a very hospitable place for visiting teams, as the Gaels are 172-22 in McKeon Pavilion over the last 11 seasons .Also 'looming' over this contest is Utah State's 86-63 win over St Mary's in a holiday tourney played last November in Las Vegas. St Mary's WILL remember that game well, as while the Aggies shot 49.2% from the floor, St Mary's shot just 29% (18 of 62), including 6 of 24 on threes. REVENGE works in this one!
Good luck...Larry
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11-29-19 |
VCU +3 v. Purdue | Top | 56-59 |
Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on VCU at 9:30 ET. Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Will Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. The Rams have opened teh current season 6-0 and will take their No. 20 ranking in the latest AP poll into the Emerald Coast Classic (Niceville, Fl) with 3-2 Purdue. The Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll but after a 79-57 win over Green Bay, Purdue lost at home 70-66 to Texas and then 65-55 at Marquette.Home wins of 93-49 over Chicago St and 81-49 over Jacksonville St prove little. The Rams returned all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team is guards Evans (15.2 & 3.2 APG)) and Jenkins (10.0) plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (11.5 & 10.5). Five guards get time in teh backcourt along with Evans and Jenkins, chipping in between 4.0 and 7.0 PPG. The 6-6 Vann (8.0 & 2.5) is really the only other frontcourt contributor helping Santos-Silva. "Shaka Ball” is back at VCU, even though Shaka Smart has been at Texas since the 205-16 season. Rhoades is a Shaka 'disciple' and the Rams are again employing withering, relentless pressure for 40 minutes as they did for the best of the Shaka years. VCU is among the nation’s leaders in TO margin and TOs forced (21 per game!). Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from last year's team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0). The Boilermakers have nowhere near VCU's depth. Guards Proctor (15.6-3.4-3.2) and Hunter (10.0 & 3.4) are the biggest backcourt contributors, while the 7-3 Haarms (12.0 & 6.6) and the 6-9 Wheeler (7.6 & 8.0) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all five opponents to fewer than 70 points to start the season (58.0 PPG on the season to rank 16th nationally). 'Plodding' Purdue has already lost to the real Shaka Smart and Texas at Mackey Arena back on Nov 9 and I expect them to be at LEAST a step or two behind Rhoads' "Shaka 2.0" team. VCU is the better team getting points. Luv it! Good luck...Larry |
11-29-19 |
Michigan v. Gonzaga -2.5 | Top | 82-64 |
Loss | -115 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Atlantis Championship Showdown play is on Gonzaga at 2:00 ET. John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (why?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who would have to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but now finds itself in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis after beating Iowa St (83-76) and No. 6 North Carolina (73-64). Waiting in the title game will be 8-0 Gonzaga, which is ranked No. 8 in the latest AP poll. You may have heard of Gonzaga and its head coach, Mark Few. When Few arrived in Spokane, the "Zags" had been to two NCAA tourneys in school history. All Few has done is go 20-for-20, entering this season on a streak of FIVE consecutive Sweet 16 appearances (reaching at least the Elite 8 in THREE of those five). Gonzaga eased past Southern Miss 94-69 on Wednesday but then needed OT to get past No. 11 Oregon 73-72 on Thanksgiving (this just in...the Ducks are an excellent team!). Michigan's style under Howard has been to push the offensive tempo. The win over North Carolina marked SIX straight in which the Wolverines scored at least 70 points, as the Wolverines are SIXTH in the nation in field-goal percentage (52.7) and 34th in scoring (82.5 PPG). PG Simpson is the team leader (12.2-4.5-9.2) but junior guard Brooks connected on 9-of-14 from the floor, including 4-of-6 from beyond the arc on Thursday to score 24 points. That raised his scoring average on the season to 13.7, second on the team behind 6-7 junior forward Isaiah Livers (16.3). 7-1 senior center Jon Teske has chipped in 12.3 PPG plus adds a team-best 8.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Gonzaga lost a 'ton' off last year's team, including a pair of 6-8 forwards who both went in the first round of the NBA draft, Hachimura (19.7 & 6.5) and Clarke (16.9 & 8.6). Also moving on were guards Norvelll (14.9-4.3-3.1) and Perkins (11.0 & 6.3 APG) but the refrain at Gonzaga is, "no worries." Gonzaga is 'loaded' up front with the 6-11 Petrusev (Serbia), who leads with 17.0 PPG and 8.6 RPG. The 6-7 Kispert (14.1), the 6-10 Tillie (11.7 & 5.7 in just three games) plus 6-10 freshman Timme adds 11.1 & 5.6. A&M transfer Gilder (11.0), No. Texas transfer Woolridge (9.5-5.5-3.9) and returning guard Ayayi (9.3-6.5-3.6) are the main contributors on the perimeter. Gonzaga is averaging 87.1 PPG (7th) on 50.9% shooting (13th), while allowing 61.9 PPG (plenty good enough with its scoring output at the other end). Michigan came to Paradise Island in the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis unranked, but can leave with a championship. However, after upsetting North Carolina, I don't see back-to-back wins over top-10 teams being 'in the cards.' The Bulldogs led Oregon by 17 points in the early going and by five points with a minute left in regulation, before having to rally in overtime. Mark Few has too many options and could counter a fast Michigan team with a big lineup, a strategy the Bulldogs employed against Oregon. Few often paired the 6-foot-10 Tillie with 6-foot-11 Petrusev, utilizing the former in the high post and wing and Petrusev on the low block. Kudos to Howard's fast start but he's got a LONG way to go to match Few's coaching acumen. Good luck..Larry |
11-28-19 |
Creighton v. San Diego State -1 | Top | 52-83 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on San Diego St at 10:30 ET.
Greg McDermott is in his 10th season as head coach of Creighton. He arrived in 2010-11 and led the Blue Jays to a runner-up finish in the CBI. Three straight NCAA teams followed, as Creighton won 29, 28 and 27 games. His lone losing season on came in 2014-15 but Creighton's won 20-plus games the last four years, with two NCAA appearances and two in the NIT. 4-1 Creighton heads into the Las Vegas Invitational with three players ranked in the top- 40 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and will face 6-0 San Diego St in Thursday night's semifinal at Orleans Arena, a team that comes in ranked 19th in three-point shooting defense (26.2%). It may come as a surprise to some that San Diego St has won at least 19 games for each of the last 14 seasons and owns the NCAA's 14th-best winning percentage (.733) in that time frame. The Aztecs entered last season having made SEVEN of the last nine NCAA tourneys and played in the postseason in 12 of the previous 13 years.
The Bluejays have a solid seven-man rotation, led by by guards Marcus Zegarowski (18.0 & 4.8), Ty-Shon Alexander (17.4 & 4.8) and Mitch Ballock (13.8 & 5.8). Alexander is shooting 53.6% on threes, Zegarowski 50.0% and Ballock 46.9%. Joining that trio in the starting lineup are forwards Jefferson (9.0 & 5.2) and Bishop (7.8 & 4.4), while the 6-11 Jones (7.0 7 5.4) and guard Mitchell (4.2 & 2.6) are the top-two reserves.
SDSU's 21-13 record left them "sitting out" postseason play last year but the Aztecs are off to their first 6-0 start since the Kawhi Leonard-led team finished 34-3 in the 2010-11 season. The Aztecs are well-balanced with SIX players getting 20-plus minutes, three guards and three frontcourt players. PG Flynn (13.3 & 5.7 APG) leads the team in scoring and assists and is joined in the starting lineup by fellow guards Schakel (10.2) and Feagin (9.0). Two 6-10 players round out the starting lineup, Wetzell (10.2 & 7.2) and Mensah (7.0 & 8.0). The 6-6 Mitchell (comes off the bench to add 10.0 & 4.5. SDSU has been known for its defense since Fisher arrived in San Diego and current head coach Brian Dutcher (he was on Fisher's staff in Michigan and SDSU), preaches the same 'sermon.' The Aztecs are allowing just 56.0 PPG (11th) on 35.9% shooting (17th), which includes the team's 26.2% on threes.
All four of Creighton's wins have come at home and against modest competition (Kennesaw St, La Tech, Cal Poly and North Florida), while the team's lone road game did not turn out well. Creighton ranks just 249th in defensive FG percentage and it showed in Ann Arbor, as the Wolverines made 56.6% from the floor in a 79-69 win. The Bluejays had trouble keeping Wolverines’ G Zavier Simpson from driving in the paint and that will be an issue here, against SDSU point guard Flynn in this neutral setting. Actually, San Diego St is a Las Vegas regular playing UNLV and the MWC tourney in Sin City. More notably, San Diego St has had just one close encounter in its 6-0 start, an impressive 76-71 road win at BYU. The Aztecs' other five wins have come by an average of 21.4 PPG. Grab them at this price, playing in familiar and friendly surroundings.
Good luck...Larry
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11-27-19 |
Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 69-71 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Oregon at 9:30 ET.
No. 11 Oregon is 5-0 and No. 13 Seton Hall is 4-1, as the two schools square off in a Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal matchup in the Bahamas. Both schools are averaging more tahn 80 points, with Oregon checking in at 80.4 and Seton Hall at 84.40. This week’s tournament, which also includes No. 8 Gonzaga, No. 6 North Carolina, Alabama, Iowa State and Michigan, could serve as a key showcase for both Oregon and Seton Hall, with both looking to position themselves for the NCAA Tournament.
Seton Hall's lone loss was a three-point home loss to Michigan St but the Pirates have rebounded with two wins since, the most recent being last Saturday’s 87-51 victory over Florida A&M. Star guard Myles Powell, who was voted the preseason Big East Player of the Year, scored 23 points in the win. He's averaging 22.6 & 4.6 so far, having topped 20 points in FOUR of five games this season. Senior guard Quincy McKnight had 14 points and five assists in the win over Florida A&M and is averaging 10.8 points and 4.6 assists for the Pirates. Kevin Willard's team features a HUGE frontcourt, with the 6-11 Mamukelashvili (11.2 & 5.0), who is joined by a pair of two 7-footers, Gill (5.6 & 6.4) and Obiagu (4.6 & 2.2).
Oregon's last outing was a 78-66 victory over Houston last Friday. Senior PG Payton Pritchard (the last holdover from the 2017 Final Four team) is on pace for a "career season," averaging 19.4-5.4-5.6. He teams with fellow New Mexico graduate transfer Mathis (15.0) plus JC transfer Duarte (9.0 & 54.8) in the backcourt. Up front, 6-7 UNLV transfer Juiston (9.8-5.6) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro (8.0 & 7.3) are joined by two freshman, the 6-7 Patterson (6.8) and the 6-8 Lawson (4.8 & 4.0). Mathis made five 3-pointers and finished with 18 points in last Friday’s win, while forward Francis Okoro added 12 points and four rebounds.
The Ducks don't have the Pirates' size but they have already beaten a 13th-ranked team (Memphis) and a team that made the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 last season in Houston, while opening 5-0 for the first time since the 2015-16 season, when they reached the Elite Eight. What's more, Oregon is shooting 51.9% (9th), including ranking 7th in three-point percentage (42.7). On the other end of the court, Oregon ranks fourth nationally in three-point FG percentage defense at 20.5 percent (pretty nice combo). I like Kevin Willard and Seton Hall but NOT here vs Dana Altman and the Ducks. Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and I believe this year's team has an excellent chance to 'go deep' in this season's "Big Dance," A win here and the Ducks will almost surely be playing No. 8 Gonzaga (great test), next. First things first, though!
Good luck...Larry
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11-27-19 |
Wichita State +1 v. West Virginia | Top | 63-75 |
Loss | -108 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Wichita St at 8:30 ET.
Bob Huggins became famous while coaching Cincinnati, leading the Bearcats to 16 straight postseason berths, including 14 straight NCAA bids. He was 'forced out' and after spending a year out of the coaching profession, accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State. It was a one-year 'pit stop' (23-12), as he returned to Morgantown (where he was born) to take the West Va job. As expected, he's led West Va to postseason berths in NINE of 12 seasons but is coming off just his second losing season with the Mountaineers, as they were just 15-21 in the 2018-19 season (4-14 in the Big 12 left them in last-place). However, this year's Mountaineers are off to a 5-0 start, as they get set to take on 6-0 Wichita St in the championship game of the Cancun Challenge.
Huggins has a great coaching history but his counterpart in tonight's title game, Gregg Marshall, is no slouch. He led Winthrop to seven NCAA appearances nine seasons and since taking over in Wichita, entered this season with a string of 10 consecutive seasons of 22 or more wins, including FOUR, 30-win seasons. In that 10-year span, the Shockers have been to seven NCAA tourneys (including a Final 4 appearance in 2013) and in three NITs (won title in 2011).
Wichita State led from start to finish in a 70-47 rout of South Carolina last night and can become the first two-time winner of this tournament (the Shockers won in 2012). Wichita St jumped out to a 27-9 lead on Tuesday, went up 19 at halftime, and cruised. Marshall's team is averaging 75.3 PPG and allowing just 56.2 (14th). The Shockers have no real star but shown great balance, as FIVE players are averaging at least nine points. PG Stevenson leads the way with 12.2 PPG plus a team-high 3.7 APG.. Four more guards chip in between 7.2 and 11.4 PPG plus up front, 6-8 junior forward Trey Wade, a transfer from UTEP averages 11.8 points and a team-best 7.7 rebounds. Excellent news has come Wichita's way as the 6-11 F Jaime Echenique (9.2 & 6.0 last season) has scored 11 points combined in the last two games after missing the first three with a hand injury.
While Wichita cruised to an easy win last night, the Mountaineers had to rally from 13 points down in the final nine minutes to beat Northern Iowa 60-55. Senior guard Haley, who averaged 7.1 points along with 4.1 rebounds last season, is averaging a team-high 12.2 PPG and also chipping in 7.2 RPG. Also making 'noise' in the early going has been 6-9 freshman Oscar Tshiebwe, who is averaging 11.2 PPG and a team-best 8.2 rebounds. 6-10 sophomore forward Emmitt Matthews is averaging 9.4 & 5.6 plus while 6-10 sophomore Derek Culver was held to three points in the semifinal, he had 15 rebounds (9.2 & 7.4 on the season).
Nothing bad to say about West Va but I just believe Wichita is the better team and the Shockers have opened the season with six straight victories for the first time since starting 35-0 in 2013-14, one year after reaching the Final Four.Could this be another 30-win campaign for Marshall? Time will tell but for tonight, I'm "all over" Wichita in this spot, at this price!
Good luck...Larry
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11-26-19 |
Colorado -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 71-67 |
Loss | -109 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Bailout Blowout is on Colorado at 11:30 ET. Tad Boyle took the Colorado job in 2010-11 and won 20-plus games in FIVE of his first six seasons (three NCAA appearances). However, mediocre 19-15 and 17-15 seasons followed, before Colorado went 23-13 last year. The Buffs didn't make the Big Dance last season but all FIVE starters returned and big things were expected. The Buffs have opened 4-0 and and are currently ranked 23rd in the AP's latest poll. Colorado played an 'ugly' first half last night against Wyoming (game was tied at 15-all) but the Buffs pulled away for a 56-41 victory. Clemson opened the season with a 67-70 home loss to Va Tech but has since won FIVE in row, after erasing a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually edge TCU, 62-60. I really like this Colorado team, which is holding opponents to 54.5 PPG (11th) and is led by three double-digit scorers. The 6-7 Tyler Bey (14.0 & 12.0 ) is a terrific player and is joined in double figures by PG Wright (12.8-4.0-3.8) and the 6-7 Schwartz (12.5). Some inside 'muscle' comes from the 6-8 Bailey (7.8 & 7.3) and the 6-7 Siewert (6.8 & 5.5), who comes off the bench. 6-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (10.0 & 8.2) is the lone returning starter for the Tigers but led Sunday night's comeback by scoring all 13 of his points in the second half, to go with 12 rebounds. Clemson's best player is 6-6 senior forward Tevin Mack, a grad transfer from Alabama. He scored 22 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the win over TCU. He leads the team in scoring (16.2) while also shooting 44.7 percent (17-of-38) from three-point range. Sophomore guard John Newman III and freshman PG Al-Amir Dawes are tied for second in scoring (10.8) and have combined for 32 assists and 14 steals. Just how good is Clemson? The loss to Va Tech is understandable (Hokies are 6-0 and just beat Mich St) but before scoring the final 15 points of the game Sunday to send the contest to OT (and win), the Tigers' previous four wins all came at home over Coppin St, South Carolina-Upstate, Lehigh and Delaware St. I don't see Clemson "coming back" against this talented, balanced and excellent defensive team in Colorado. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
11-26-19 |
Dayton -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 89-62 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Dayton at 8:00 ET.
Mike Young spent 17 years at Wofford, where he led the Terriers to five NCAA appearances, including last season. Wofford defeated Seton Hall 84-68 iin LY's Big Dance, giving him the first NCAA Tournament win of his career. He took over at Va Tech, when Buzz Willaims used Tech's Sweet 16 appearance last season to take the Texas A&M job. On November 5th, 2019, Young recorded his 300th career win and first win as Virginia Tech's men's basketball coach, by defeating Clemson 67-60. The Hokies haven't looked back, as they upset No. 3 Michigan State 71-66 in the opening round of the Maui Invitational on Monday. The 6-0 Hokies will meet Dayton on Tuesday, which improved its record to 4-0 with Monday's 80-61 win over Georgia. Anthony Grant had success at both VCU and Alabama, before taking Dayton job for the 2017-18 season (he had a successful four-year playing career as a Flyer).
Dayton's 6-9 Tuppin (24.0 & 8.3) will easily be the best big man in this game, as the Hokies' tallest starter is 6-7. He's joined upfront by the 6-7 Mikesell (11.3 & 3.8) plus an excellent perimeter group. Junior guards Crutcher (13.3 & 5.8 APG) and Chatwood (12.0 & 4.5 APG) get help in the backcourt from two transfers, Landers (Chattanooga) and Watson (Michigan), who have combined to average 15.3 PPG.
Young lost Va Tech's leading scorer from last year (Alexander-Walker at 16.2) to the NBA and couldn't convince the 6-10 Blackshear (14.9 & 7.45) to stay (he's a graduate transfer at Florida). However, the 6-7 Nolley (20.5 & 4.7) is off to an excellent start and the 6-5 Horne (9.8 & 4.7) plays bigger than his size. Freshman guard Alleyene (12.2) is the only other double digit scorer outside of Nolley but FIVE more guards chip in between 5.3 and 7.7 PPG.
Tech loves to shoot the three-ball and is connecting on 42.9% (7th). However, Dayton should control the paint and is averaging 87.2 PPG (7th) on a nation-best 54.2% shooting. TOUGH spot for Tech off its upset of Michigan St. Dayton wins and advances to the championship game, where No. 4 Kansas will likely be waiting.
Good luck...Larry
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11-25-19 |
Northwestern v. Bradley -3 | Top | 78-51 |
Loss | -118 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Late-Breaker is on Bradley at 8:30 ET.
Northwestern and Bradley square off tonight in the first round of the Fort Myers Tip-Off. After three years of gradual improvement, the 2016-17 season saw Chris Collins lead the Northwestern Wildcats to their best season since before World War II. The Wildcats finished with their first winning Big Ten Conference record in 49 years, earned their first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history, and went to win their first NCAA Tournament game (note: Northwestern had been the only member of a power conference to have never made the tournament). However, Northwestern went 15-17 (60-12 Big Ten) the following season and last year fell to 13-19, finishing last in the Big Ten at 4-16, for the first time since the 2006-07 season. .
Brian Wardle took the Bradley head coaching job in 2015-16, after having no success at Green Bay. That first season was a disaster (5-27) but in his fourth season (last year), Wardle led the Braves to the NCAA Tournament by winning The Missouri Valley’s “Arch Madness” Tournament (first MVC title for Bradley since 1988), as the Braves overcame an 18-point deficit to beat Northern Iowa 57-54. The win led to Bradley's first NCAA Tourney appearance since 2006.
Northwestern is a disappointing 2-2 to open this season, losing a pair of home games to Merrimack (71-61) and Radford (67-56), despite being double digit favorites in each one. The Wildcats returned two big men and both the 6-11 Nance (15.3 & 9.0) and the 6-7 Kupp (11.8 & 5.0) have posted good numbers. 6-9 freshman Beran was the team's most highly-touted recruit but he's averaging just 4.8 & 1.8 in 12 minutes. However, fellow freshman Young (6-10), is averaging 11.5 & 7.5. The starting guards are returning players Spencer (7.5-4.5-4.3) and Gaines (6.5).
Bradley's a veteran team, led by returning guards Brown (13.8 & 6.8 APG) at the point and Kennell (13.2). LSU transfer Kingsby (8.2) starts with that in the backcourt, with the 6-7 Childs (12.8 & 9.6) and the 6-11 Bar (10.0 & 10.) starting up front. Kennell was the MVC's 6th-man of the year last season and maybe the 6-6 Henry (10.5 & 4.5) can claim that title this season.
Bradley lost its season-opener to St Joe's but enters on a four-game winning streak and I expect that the Braves will have little trouble making it FIVE straight wins, here.
Good luck...Larry
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11-25-19 |
Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 55-66 |
Loss | -113 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Loyola-Chicago at 1:30 ET.
Loyola-Chicago, which made that great run to the Final 4 in 2018, will take on USF, last year's CBI champs, in the first round of the Cayman Islands Islands Classic on Monday afternoon. Loyola had to replace three key players from last year's team and enter the contest 3-2, while USF had all five starters back from last year's team but that's NOT the case now, as the Bulls visit the Cayman Islands at 2-2.
Following a 32-win season in which head coach Porter Moser led the Ramblers to the Final 4, last year's team won a more modest 20 games, after losing in the NIT's first round. Gone are Custer and Townes, who won back-to-back POY honors in the MVC, as well as Ingram. However, three starters are back and contributing as expected. 6-9 center Krutwig leads in scoring (16.6) and rebounding (6.8), guard Williamson checks in second on the team in scoring at 14.0 PPG plus the 6-7 Uguak adds 8.4 PPG. Also making an impact are 6-6 swingman Hall (12.4 & 5.6), a JC transfer, and freshman guard Kennedy (11.4 & 3.2).
Here's the 'dope' on USF. Before playing a game this season, the 6-8 Yetna (12.3 & 9.6 LY) was lost for the year with a knee injury and then head coach Brian Gregory announced former four-star forward Mayan Kiir, who hadn't played all year because of personal issues after appearing in every game in 2018-2019, was leaving the program. The Bulls' outstanding guard duo of Collins (14.5 & 4.2) and Rideau (12.5 & 5.2) are leading the way but the team has little size outside of the 7-0 Durr, who is averaging modest totals of 5.2 & 5.5.
Loyola lost at home 76-72 to Coppin St (as a three-'TD' favorite) but enters thsi contest off back-to-back wins over St Joe's and IUPUI. As for USF, the team's two wins have come against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Wofford. The Bulls are really struggling to score, as they enter averaging 63.0 PPG (314th of 351 schools), on 40.7 shooting (285th). When they get to the free-throw line, they are making a woeful 55.7%, which ranks 347th. At this pick'em price, the Ramblers are a strong play.
Good luck...Larry
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11-23-19 |
Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 80-67 |
Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on St John's at 2:30 ET.
Bobby Hurley is a member of a famous basketball family of coaches and he enters his fifth season as Arizona State's head coach. He's led ASU to back-to-back NCAA tourneys the last two seasons and that's "big news" in Tempe, as the last time the Sun Devils made consecutive "Big Dance" appearances was in 1980 and 1981. ASU opened the current season with a game in China against Colorado and got beat, 81-71. However, the Buffs return all five starters from last year and have opened 3-0 (are currently ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll). The Sun Devils have since routed Central Connecticut State 90-49 and after falling behind early by eight points, pulled away to beat Rider 92-55 (both games were in Tempe).
St John's comes in 4-1 and its lone loss came at the buzzer against Vermont. Let's note that the 4-1 Catamounts are no slouches, as their lone loss has come to defending champion Virginia, 61-55. Scoring 55 points vs the Cavs is noteworthy, as UVa's first three 'victims' averaged just 36.7 PPG. Chris Mullin resigned after last season, ending a disappointing four-year run at his alma mater.The Red Storm posted losing records in his first three seasons but last year's team went 21-13 and did make an NCAA appearance (no small deal, as it was just this once-proud basketball program's THIRD Big Dance appearance in 17 years!). Taking over is Mikle Anderson, who came to renown at UAB and Missouri, before returning to Arkansas . His eight-year run with the Razorbacks didn't go as planned, as the school made just three NCAA appearances. At the end of last year (18-16, including 8-10 in the SEC), he was fired, marking the end of a 25-year association with Arkansas as both an assistant and head basketball coach.
ASU's best player from last year (Dort) left after averaging 16.1 PPG and 4.3 RPG as a freshman. Another big loss was senior center Cheatham, who averaged a double-double (12.1 & 10.3). However, veteran guards Martin (19.0-4.7-4.7) and Edwards (16.0) are back and are leading the way.The 6-8 White (6.5 & 9.0) is the third returning starter and he's solid. JC transfer Verge (8.3-4.7-3.7) is starting in the backcourt with Martin and Edwards plus 6-9 freshman Graham has come off the bench to average 6.7 & 3.7.
St John's is missing do-everything PG Ponds (19.7-4.1-5.1) plus two key frontcourt performers from last year, Clark (10.5 & 5.4) and Simon (10.4 & 5.1). However, Anderson really likes the perimeter group he has this season. The 6-5 Heron (17.8) and the 6-6 Figueroa (16.6 & 6.0) are back plus they are joined by two talented newcomers. The 6-2 Dunn has averaged 13.5 PPG in two games, after being given the OK to play (was a transfer from Cleveland St), plus 6-7 freshman Champagnie (10.4 & 7.6) is already living up to high expectations. Returning forwards Earlington (9.2 & 5,.4) and Roberts (7.4 & 9.0) have both been solid.
OK, I know November tournaments have been really good to Arizona State in the past two years, Hurley's team won the 2017 Continental Tire Invitational with victories over Kansas State and Xavier (both wound up as Sweet 16 teams) and then took the MGM Resorts Main Event last year with wins over No. 15 Mississippi State and eventual Mountain West champ Utah State. However, I'm playing the 'revenge angle" just like last night, when I won with Oregon over Houston. Arizona St beat St John's 74-65 last year at Dayton in an NCAA Tournament First Four game. Expect a reversal of that result, here.
Good luck...Larry
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11-22-19 |
Temple v. USC -10 | Top | 70-61 |
Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on USC at 11:00 ET. Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has FOUR teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and Washington). However, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points, for the first time since 1963, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points. The 5-0 Trojans will try to keep that streak alive on Friday night when they host unbeaten Temple (3-0). The Owls return three starters and 10 lettermen from a 23-10 team that lost to Belmont in the First Four in the NCAA Tournament. However, longtime head coach Fran Dunphy (who led Penn and Temple to a combined 17 NCAA appearances), finally retired. Yes, Temple has a first-year head coach in Aaron McKie, but he's hardly "new." McKie played three years at Temple (he was the 1993 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year as a junior) and then after a 15-year NBA career, returned to Temple as Dunphy's assistant from 2014-19. Temple was picked to finish seventh in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll but comes in off a 70-65 Big-5 win over La Salle on Saturday plus also has won home games over Drexel (70-62) and Morgan State (75-57). Junior guard Nate Pierre-Louis posted his third straight double-double vs LaSalle and is averaging 18.1-11.0-4.3. Senior guard Quinton Rose (16.0) and fellow guard Alanui Moore (10.3) join Pierre-Louis in double figures.The frontcourt consists of the 6-7 Perry (7.7), the 6-7 Moorman (5.0 & 6.3) and the 6-11 Damion Moore (4.0 & 5.5). USC is coming in off a 91-84 home victory over Pepperdine on Tuesday that saw 6-9 freshman forward Onyeka Okongwu score a career-high 33 points, the most by a Trojan freshman since O.J. Mayo scored 37 in a 2008 game against Arizona State. Okongwu (18.2 & 9.4) helped lead Chino Hills High School to three state titles and is already a star in LA. However, Okongwu is just part of an impressive Trojan front line that also includes 6-11 senior Nick Rakocevic (16.4 & 9.8), who was a preseason first team All-Pac-12 pick, as well as 6-10 freshman Isaiah Mobley (9.4 & 5.0), a McDonald's All-American who had 14 points in 18 minutes off the bench against the Waves. Senior guard Mathews (11.8) is a steadying influence and along with Rakocevic, became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark earlier this season. Temple flies a long way for this contest and does not own the quickness nor the SIZE to match the Trojans. Temple already has FOUR players averaging 30-plus minutes and comes in shooting a putrid 39.2% (307th) on the young season. USC is averaging 80.8 PPG and the Trojans are 33-4 SU in their last 37 home non-conference games. Make that 34-4, with tonight's win coming "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
11-22-19 |
Houston v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 66-78 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Oregon at 9:00 ET.
Oregon opened the season No. 15 in the AP's preseason poll and the Ducks are up to No. 11 after a 4-0 start. Visiting Eugene tonight will be a 2-1 Houston team which is coming off a 33-win season that saw the Cougars advance to the Sweet 16. Although Kelvin Sampson's squad lost FOUR starters from that team, his Cougars were still picked to win the American Athletic Conference. The 11th-ranked Ducks are averaging 81.5 PPG (61st) and have already posted quality wins over Fresno State, Boise State and Memphis. Meanwhile, the Cougars opened with an 84-56 home win against over-matched Alabama St but then lost at home 72-71 at the buzzer against BYU on Nov 15. The Cougars enter this game off a come-from-behind 97-89 win over crosstown rival Rice on Tuesday.
Sophomore guard Quentin Grimes (started every game for Kansas last season) was given a waiver to be able to play this season for Houston and is averaging 18.3-5.3-3.3. He scored a career-high 32 points and added nine rebounds with five assists in the win over Rice, while sophomore guard Nate Hinton added 15 points and 11 rebounds for the second double-double of his career. The 6-5 Hinton averages 7.7 PPG and a team-high 8.7 RPG. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has also been encouraged by the play of freshmen guards Caleb Mills (12.0 & 4.0) and Marcus Sasser (9.7), who scored a combined 27 points against the Owls. Jarreau (12.0) is a fourth guard, while the team's lone returning starter from last year is the 6-8 White (10.7 & 7.7).
Oregon's Dana Altman has some notable freshman as well but he's easing them in, as he is able to rely heavily on a handful of experienced players. Senior PG Payton Pritchard (the last holdover from the 2017 Final Four team) is on pace for a "career season," averaging 20.3-6.3-5.8. He teams with fellow New Mexico graduate transfer Mathis (14.3) plus JC transfer Duarte (9.3 & 5.3) in the backcourt. Up front, 6-7 UNLV transfer Juiston (10.8-5.5) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro (6.7 & 8.3) are joined by two freshman, the 6-7 Patterson (8.3) and the 6-8 Lawson (5.0 & 4.8).
Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and his team will be out for a little 'revenge,' after an un-ranked Houston team (at the time) beat the then-No. 18 ranked Ducks 65-61. That contes marked Houston's first-ever game in its new home ($60 million Fertitta Center). Oregon fell behind by 20 points in the first half, before cutting the lead to two with 10 seconds left. Don't expect Oregon fall behind in this one (at home), rather look for the Cougars to serve up a little "payback" in a convincing win. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry |
11-21-19 |
Texas -5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 66-82 |
Loss | -105 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 4-0 Texas entered the latest AP poll this past Monday at No. 22 (first time ranked in nearly a year) and will take that ranking to Madison Square Garden to meet 3-1 Georgetown in the 2K Empire Classic. Thursday's game marks just the third meeting between Texas and Georgetown (first since 2012) with the series tied at a game apiece. Texas won last year's NIT, which holds its Final 4 at MSG (Longhorns beat TCU in the semis and Lipscomb in the title game). As for Georgetown, "The Garden" is a VERY familiar venue, as the Hoyas have played roughly 100 games there, most coming in the Big East Tournament. Missing from last year's NIT champs are big men Osetkowski (11.1 & 7.2) and Hayes (10.0 & 5.0), who was a one-and-done (8th overall pick of the 2019 draft by Atlanta). Guard Roach was suspended THREE different times in his stay at Austin but he ended his Texas career by being named the NIT's most outstanding player. All will be missed but Texas has an experienced group of players back. Depth on the perimeter is a strength, led by PG Coleman (14.5-4.5-4.3) and Jones (13.3), who are supported by Ramey (9.0 & 5.3), Febres (8.0) and freshman Williams (5.3). Taking over up front for Osetkowski and Hayes are the 6-8 Liddell (9.3 & 5.0) and the 6-9 Sims (8.3 & 7.3). This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news is, FOUR starters are back, although the loss is a big one. Govan averaged 17.5 & 7.5 in making the all-Big East first team. 7-0 senior Yurtseven (17.0 & 12.5) is Georgetown's best player this season, joined up front by a trio of fowards who have combined to average right about 30 points and 11 rebounds per game. The Hoyas start three guards, PG Akinjo (12.3 & 4.5 APG), McClung (12.3) and Mosley (7.5 & 3.30. Georgetown's three wins have come over 'nobodies,' while its lone loss came 81-66 at home to a Penn St team that was just 14-18 last season. Shaka Smart came to Texas with great fanfare, after a terrific run at VCU (Google it). However, his Texas teams have made just two NCAAs in his first four seasons at Austin, with both teams getting bounced in the first round. Last year's NIT title was 'nice,' but Smart was not hired to win NIT championships. Smart's trademark has always been "team defense" and Texas has held all opponents to 66 points or less, allowing 55.2 PPG (18th) on 36.3% shooting (45th). Texas has won its lone 'test' of the young season, winning 70-66 at then-No. 23 Purdue. A win here and Texas will get a chance at current No. 1 Duke in Friday's tourney championship (assuming the Dookies beat Cal). I look forward to seeing how Texas fares against Duke but first, the Longhorns will have to dispatch Georgetown. My bet says that win comes convincingly! Good luck...Larry |
11-20-19 |
San Diego State -5 v. San Diego | Top | 66-49 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on SD State at 11:00 ET. It may come as a surprise to some that San Diego St has won at least 19 games for each of the last 14 seasons and owns the NCAA's 14th-best winning percentage (.733) in that time frame. The Aztecs entered last season having made SEVEN of the last nine NCAA tourneys and played in the postseason in 12 of the previous 13 years. However, the team's 21-13 record left them "sitting out" postseason play last year. San Diego welcomes SD St to the Jenny Craig Pavilion off a a 21-15 season that earned them an NIT bid. SD St enters 3-0 to open the current season, while San Diego is off to a 2-3 start. The Aztecs rely on a trio of guards and frontcourt players. The backcourt features Flynn (15.3 & 6.3 APG), Schakel (13.0) and Feagin (10.0), while the frontcourt consists of the 6-6 Mitchell (9.0 & 5.3), the 6-10 Mensah (8.7 & 10.3) and the 6-10 Wetzell (6.0 & 7.0). As always, the Aztecs are a strong defensive team, allowing 58.0 PPG (34th). San Diego lost its top-four scorers from last season and like SD St, relies on three key perimeter players and three more in the frontcourt. Guards Calcaterra (16.8), Hartfield (11.4 & 6.8) and Humphrey (9.0) team with the 6-10 Massalski (11.0 & 5.0), the 6-7 Jean-Marie (8.6 & 8.4) and the 6-7 Floresca (7.0 & 4.4). San Diego may be at home but it is in a tough spot here. The Toreros are averaging just 66.2 PPG (278th) on 40.2% shooting (286th). SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher was an assistant for 18 years under Steve Fisher, first at Michigan and then here at SDSU, where he was known as a "head coach in waiting." He took aver at SDSU when Fisher retired and took the Aztecs to an NCAA appearance in 2017-18 but as noted above, fell short of ANY postseason bid last year. I expect this year's team to be back in postseason play and tonight, to avenge last year 's 73-61 loss at home to local rival San Diego. Revenge works here! Good luck...Larry |
11-20-19 |
Texas State v. UNLV -3.5 | Top | 64-57 |
Loss | -118 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on UNLV at 10:00 ET. Danny Kaspar led the Texas State Bobcats to a 24-10 record last season (his 1st at San Marcos), the school's most wins in 25 years. Kaspar had the challenge this season of replacing three starters and the Bobcats visit the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas at 3-2 (more in a little bit). UNLV was unhappy with Marvin Menzies and he was let go after three seasons. The Rebels brought in TJ Otzelberger, who in three seasons at South Dakota St, took the school two to NCAA tourneys, including winning 28 games in the 2017-18 season. However, UNLV has opened a disappointing 2-3. Texas St is led by guards Pearson (15.0 & 4.0) and Harrell (8.4 & 45.0) and its best frontcourt player is the 6-8 Small (12.2 & 8.6), a JC transfer. Six more players are getting 14-plus minutes per game , while chipping in 5.2-to-7.6 PPG. Hardy was UNLV's top returning scorer and the junior guard is leading the way averaging 19.0-3.4-3.0. Texas graduate transfer Mitrou-Long has been an excelelent backcourt partner, adding 12.6-4.6-3.2. Up front, the 6-7 Tillman (the Pac 12's 6th man of the year last season), has been allowed to play this season and is scoring 12.4 PPG with 4.4 RPG. The 6-11 Diong is averaging 7.2 PPG and a team-high 10.6 RPG. Texas St has won all three at home but the opponents were 'cup cakes' Texas Lutheran, PV A&M and Jackson St. The Bobcats have lost both road games, at Air Force and Baylor. Yes, UNLV is 2-3 but the losses have in OT vs Kansas St and on the road vs Pac 12 schools Cal (also in OT) and UCLA. The Rebels haven't beaten anyone of of note yet, winning at home against Purdue-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian. A victory over Texas St will not be considered a "quality win" but UNLV could sure use a "confidence-builder." I say the Rebels get a "W" (and cover) in this one, as Texas St is just 5-12-1 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Good luck...Larry |
11-19-19 |
Montana State v. Grand Canyon -6 | Top | 56-69 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Grand Canyon at 9:00 ET. Danny Sprinkle attended Montana St and back in 1996, scored 30 points in the Big Sky championship game to lead the Bobcats into the "Big Dance." The Bobcats haven't been back since. However, on April 4, 2019, Sprinkle was hired as the 23rd head men's basketball coach at Montana State. He took over at a school which has won between seven and 16 games the last five seasons. Dan Majerle had a 14-year NBA career and was the associate head coach for the Phoenix Suns from 2008–2013. On March 15, 2013, it was announced that Majerle would coach for Grand Canyon University in their its season as a Division I team. In Malerle's third season, he led the Antelopes to 27 wins and into the CIT quarterfinals, then followed with 22, 22 and 20-win seasons. Each of the last two seasons, Grand Canyon has lost in the WAC championship game, to New Mexico St (one win shy of an NCAA berth). Sprinkle has an "international cast of characters," led PG Frey (17.2-5.8-6.0) from Noway. Two London-born players are the 6-9 Belo (11.2 & 6.2) and guard Adamu (9.8 & 4.2) plus guard Paulo (9.4) hails from Toronto. The Bobcats are off to an impressive start at 4-1, which includes three wins in THREE days in Greensboro, NC playing in the Spartan Classic. Mon St beat App St 59-56, host UNC-Greensboro 67-66 and Ten Tech, 52-39. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon stumbled out of the gate with THREE straight losses, before beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-54. Grand Canyon lost two key players from last year's team in the 6-10 Finke (12.1 & 5.1) and PG Milstead (10.3 & 3.6 APG) but Majerle has a solid team. Guard Johnson (13.5 & 6.8) leads the team in scoring and rebounding plus four more players average in double figures. That group includes guard Brown (12.8 & 4.2), freshman Blacksher (12.2 & 5.2) and 6-7 graduate transfer swingman Jenkins (10.2 & 3.8) plus the returning 6-10 Lever (11.5 & 2.8). I can't explain Grand Canyon's early stumbles but Montana State just finished playing three games in three days in Greensboro (Fri-Sun) and now flies to Phoenix with only ONE day between playing a FOURTH game in five days! That's asking A LOT! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
11-17-19 |
UC Riverside v. Pacific OVER 116 | Top | 51-58 |
Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on UC Riverside/Pacific Over at 6:00 ET. UC-Riverside visits Stockton, Ca on Sunday, as the Highlanders take on the Pacific Tigers. Riverside went just 10-23 last season under first-time head coach David Patrick but has designs on being at least a .500 team in the current season by adapting a slower pace and controlling the clock. The 2-1 Highlanders are averaging only 57.7 PPG (ranks 337th of 351 Division I schools) but the team's "pace" has also allowed them to hold opponents to just 53.3 PPG (13th-best in the nation). Pacific went to three straight NCAA tourneys from 2004-06 and then made another trip in 2013. The following season, Pacific made it to the NIT semis but the basketball program has imploded, since. Beginning in the 2014-15 season, the Tigers have gone 12-19, 8-20, 11-22, 14-18 and 14-18. Pacific has been led the last three seasons by former Arizona All American and 15-year NBA player, Damon Stoudamire. Riverside is led by 7-1 center McCrae, who is leading the team in scoring (13.7) and rebounding (9.3). A trio of guards chip in 9.0-to-10.3 PPG, including 6-3 UTSA transfer Wilborn, who averages 8.7 RPG to go along with his 9.0 points. Stoudamire claims his team's depth will bring about a much better season for the Tigers. Pacific features NINE new players, including graduate transfers and freshman. The team's leading scorer is Ga Tech transfer Moore (11.6 & 3.6 APG) and the team's leading rebounder is returning 6-5 senior guard Tripp (8.0 & 6.8). The 6-9 McCray has recovered from a torn ACL and is back averaging 10.8 & 5.6 plus Finstuen, a JC transfer guard, is averaging 9.6. Here's the 'dope.' The opening Ov/Un number was 117 1/2 but I'm saying "no way" this game is staying under that number (I was able to go over 116). Stoudamire 'LOVES' his team's depth and after five games, ELEVEN Pacific players are logging 11-plus minutes per game. Yes, Pacific has already played FIVE games (no school has played more), while averaging 72.0 per. Just three of those games have featured pointspreads and O/U lines with all three going over (closing totals of 133, 123.5 and 132). This one is Goin' Over, as well. Good luck...Larry |
11-16-19 |
USC -2 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Bailout Blowout of the Month is on USC at 11:00 ET. 3-0 USC visits Reno, Nv on Saturday night to take on 2-1 Nevada. The Trojans have won their first three games by an average of 19.3 PPG but are playing on the road for the first time, after going 2-8 away from home last season. The Wolf Pack have won 44 of their last 47 home games but after three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29, Nevada entered this season with a new head coach (more in a bit) and having lost all FIVE starters from last year's team. Speaking of head coaches, Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has three teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona and Colorado). The good news is that seniors Jonah Mathews (1,009) and Nick Rakocevic (1,007) just became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark. The 6-11 Rakocevic is averaging 14.0 & 9.0 and guard Mathews chips in 11.7 PPG. The better news is that neither is the team's best player, as that's reserved for 6-9 freshman Onyeka Okongwu, who averages 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds plus has recorded 10 blocked shots. Also "keep an eye on 6-10 freshman Mobley, who is averaging 8.7 & 6.7. Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to the success stated above. He left for Arkansas this season and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana start had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He takes over a team that lost all FIVE starters but he does have a deep and pretty good perimter group. Holdover guards Drew (20.3-7.7-6.3) and Johnson (17.3) are off two excellent starts, joined on the perimeter by La Tech transfer Harris (12.0 & 5.5) and the returning Zouzoua (11.3). Yes, Nevada has won 44 of its last 47 at home but one of those losses came this year at home to Utah, a Pac 12 team not as good as USC. The Trojans wil surely remember getting outscored 39-26 in 2nd-half of last year's 73-61 home loss to Nevada and again, that was a totally different team than this year's Nevada edition. Revenge will be 'sweet' for USC, with a bonus being Enfield getting some extra satisfaction in besting former UCLA mentor Alfird. Good luck...Larry |
11-16-19 |
Belmont v. Boston College -1.5 | Top | 100-85 |
Loss | -108 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Boston College at 2:00 ET. Belmont and Boston College meet Saturday afternoon in Chestnut Hill in an on-campus Gotham Classic matchup. Belmont is coming off a 27-6 season which included an upset of 6th-seeded Maryland in the NCAAs, before losing 81-70 to Temple in the second round. However, the Bruins saw legendary head coach Rick Byrd retire (805 career wins), plus lost the 6-7 Windler (21.3 & 10.9) and guard McClain (16.8-3.6-3.9) from that team. Windler was a 1st round NBA draft choice and led Belmont with 35 & 11 in its upset of Maryland. McClain was a 1st-team All-OVC guard, who led Belmont with 29 points in the Temple loss. Boston has struggled to find its way into the top-half of the ACC and went just 14-17 (5-13 in the ACC) last season. Replacing Windler and McClain will be difficult but Belmont feels great about new head coach. Casey Alexander, who played for Byrd at Belmont, was his assistant for 16 years and then as Lipscomb's head coach, led them to a 29-8 record last year, including a runner-up finish in the NIT. The Bruins have a solid guard duo in Kunkel (20.5) and Murphy (10.0-8.5-5.0) plus up front, the 6-11 Muszynski has averaged 17.5 PPG and 6-7 grad transfer Scanlon has averaged 10.0-6.4-4.5. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). However, BC is off to a 3-0 starts and seeks its first 4-0 start in 12 years. BC will really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad ttansfer Derryck Thornton has averaged 17.3 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic averaged 14.5 & 7.2 last season and in BC's 3-0 start, has averaged 12.7 & 5.7. The 6-8 Mitchell is also back up front and he's averaged 5.7 PPG and 10.7 RPG. A pair of freshman have also looked good in the early going, as guard Heathchecks in at 12.7 & 4.3 plus the 6-7 Felder has added 6.3 & 5.3. It's hard NOT to be impressed by the Belmont program in recent years but this is just the team's third game, owning a home win over Samford and then taking a 79-72 loss at Illinois St, which lost FOUR starters off last season's 17-win team. Meanwhile, BC opened with a conference win over Wake Forest (77-70) and has also won 74-60 at South Florida, last year's NIT champs. Belmont was picked to win the Ohio Valley Conference in coach Casey Alexander's first season but this visit to Boston does NOT end well. Good luck...Larry |
11-15-19 |
West Virginia v. Pittsburgh +1 | Top | 68-53 |
Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Pittsburgh at 7:00 ET. Bob Huggins became famous while coaching Cincinnati, leading the Bearcats to 16 straight postseason berths, including 14 straight NCAA bids. He was 'forced out' and after spending a year out of the coaching profession, accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State. It was a one-year 'pit stop' (23-12), as he returned to Morgantown (where he was born) to take the West Va job. As expected, he's led West Va to postseason berths in NINE of 12 seasons but is coming off just his second losing season with the Mountaineers, as they were just 15-21 in the 2018-19 season (4-14 in the Big 12 left them in last-place). West Virginia held off Akron 94-84 in its season opener on Nov 8. Pittsburgh welcomes the Mountaineers to the Petersen Events Center on Friday, with the Panthers off to a 2-1 start. Jeff Capel's first season at Pitt (2018-19) was a disaster, as the Panthers went 14-19 (3-15 in the ACC). Capel, a former standout at Duke, has previously led both VCU and Oklahoma to NCAA tourney bids. Early indications are that Jeff Capel is making some progress at Pitt. Here's how Huggins described last season. "You can't lose four starters (during the season) and be successful," he said. "We lost our PG, the best shot-blocker in the nation and two other starters who were pretty good , too, You can't do that!" The 6-10 Culver is back and he opened with 16 & 7 against Akron. The 6-7 Matthews looked good as well, chipping in 13 & 7 plus highly-touted 6-9 freshman Tshiebew added 5 & 5 in 10 minutes. The backcourt is deep with senior Harley (16-7-3) and freshman McBride (11-6-4) contributing the most in the team's season opener. Pittsburgh actually has three games under its belt, although the Panthers would like to forget getting upset 75-70 at home by Nicholls State, which was picked to finish 11th in the Southland Conference. However, the Panthers will want to build on their71-57 win at Robert Morris on Tuesday. The victory snapped a 24-game, true-road losing streak. Pittsburgh impressively overcame an 18-0 Colonials' run in the first half to record a true-road victory for the first time since Feb.8, 2017, at Boston College. The 6-10 Terrell Brown had eight points, nine rebounds and five blocks in his first start of the season (9.7 & 5.7). "Brown was really the difference in the game," Robert Morris coach Andrew Toole said. "His ability to protect the rim, and make it hard for our guys to finish around the basket had a huge impact on us offensively." Pitt is basically a perimeter-oriented team, with junior guard Murphy (17.0 & 3.7) leading all scorers, joined by sophomore guards McGowens (15.0-6.7-4.0) and Johnson (10.0-5.7-3.7) plus 6-6 freshman guard Champagnie (7.7 & 4.7). This is the 187th edition of the "Backyard Brawl," one which West Va won last season, 69-59. However, I noted above that Pittsburgh snapped its 24-game, true-road losing streak but that's 'chump change' compared to West Va's road woes. The Mountaineers will be seeking their first true road win in 633 days, since a win at Baylor back on Feb 20, 2018! What's more, they will have to do accomplish that against a hated-rival in Pittsburgh, which is 70-3 all-time in the month of November at the Petersen Events Center. At this price, Pitt is the ONLY way to go! Good luck...Larry |
11-14-19 |
Michigan State v. Seton Hall +6.5 | Top | 76-73 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* No. 3 vs No. 12 Showdown is on Seton Hall at 8:30 ET. The Gavitt Tipoff Games wrap up a week-long schedule when No. 3 Michigan State travels to South Orange, NJ to take on No. 12 Seton Hall. The Spartans are coming off a run to the Final Four last season and were voted the AP's preseason No. 1 time for the first time in school history but lost 69-62 to then-No. 2 Kentucky on Nov 5 in the Champions Classic played at MSG. Kentucky rebounded from that season-opening loss with an easy 104-47 home win over Binghamton this past Sunday. Seton Hall returned four starters from last year's 20-win NCAA team and opened as the No. 12 team in the AP's preseason poll. The Pirates have opened 2-0 and held their spot in the first regular season poll but the Hall's 74-57 Saturday home win over Stony Brook came at a high 'price.' Senior guard Myles Powell averaged 23.1 PPG last season and scored 27 in the team's season-opener but he suffered a severe ankle injury early in Saturday's contest (he will NOT play here). Michigan St's loss to Kentucky was a disappointment but paled in comparison to the death of Zachary Winston, the younger brother of Spartans senior PG Cassius Winston (Preseason P-O-Y). Zachary died of an apparent suicide on Saturday night and he was friends with many players on the Spartans squad. However, Winston (19.0 & 7.5 APG) played the very next day and was outstanding against Binghamton, finishing with 17 points, 11 assists and just one turnover. 6-8 junior forward Xavier Tillman (12.0 & 8.5) rebounded from a disappointing opener with 17 points and eight rebounds against Binghamton. He's one of five MSU frontcourt players averaging between 7.5 and 12.5 PPG (the 6-6 Henry leads at 12.5). MSU's weakness is on the perimeter, as outside of Winston, Izzo's team does not have a consistent outside shooter with Langford (15.0 PPG last season) not expected to be available until January at the earliest. Myles Powell was voted the preseason Big East Player of the Year and according to head coach Kevin Willard, his sprained his left ankle will cause him to miss multiple games, although the ankle has reportedly responded well to treatment. Powell will be missed but PG McKnight (12.0 & 5.0 APG) is hardly alone in the backcourt. Rhoden (11.5) and Reynolds (9.0) each played extra minutes after Powell went down, as Rhoden played 27 minutes (11 points) and Reynolds played 28 (9 points). Willard's team features a HUGE frontcourt, with the 6-11 Mamukelashvili (14.0 & 5.) being aided by a pair of two 7-footers, Gill (9.0 & 6.0) and Obiagu (7.5 & 2.5). I'm a HUGE fan of Izzo but Kevin Willard can coach. He's led Seton Hall to four straight 20-win seasons, earning a bid to the "Big Dance" in each one. I had Kentucky when it beat Mich St back on Nov 5 and wrote, " I think MSU is a bit overrated. The Spartans lost the 6-9 Ward (12.9 & 6.1), the 6-7 Goins (7.9 & 8.9) and SG McQuaid (9.8) from LY, will NOT get Langford back as expected (until Jan) and additionally, 6-6 forward Kyle Ahrens (4.7 & 2.5) is nursing a high ankle sprain." Nothing much has changed. Seton Hall took down Kentucky 84-83 (OT) last Dec 8th at MSG and here on its home court, does the same to Mich St. Take the points but expect a SU win by the Pirates. Good luck...Larry |
11-13-19 |
LSU v. VCU -3 | Top | 82-84 |
Loss | -105 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on VCU at 6:00 ET. No. 23 LSU (1-0) visits Richmond, Va to take on VCU on Wednesday, which opened No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out in Monday's new poll, despite opening 2-0. LSU head coach Will Wade returns to the place where he won 51 games and made a pair of NCAA Tournaments in two seasons as the school's head coach. Wade was 51-20 at VCU from 2015-17 before taking the job in Baton Rouge,where he helped the 28-7 Tigers win their first SEC regular-season title since 2009 last season Lost in the Sweet 16). Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. Most likely remember that Wade was suspended by LSU last March due to allegations over illegal recruiting charges. He's back (for now), so let's talk basketball. Gone from last year's team are PG Waters (15.3 & 5.8 APG) plus frontcourt players the 6-9 Reid (13.6 & 7.2) and the 6-11 Bigby-Williams (7.9 & 6.7). Key players returning this this year are guards Javonte Smart (in the center of LY's recruiting scandal) and Skylar Mays. Smart had 21 points in Friday's 88-79 home win over Bowling Green, while Mays had 18 & 8. Sophomore forward Emmitt Williams had 21 points on 5-of-9 shooting from the floor, after averaging just 7.0 PPG last season. Fellow sophomore forward Davis had 13 points and seven rebounds, coming off averaging 5.3 & 4.0 last year. The team's most promising freshman is the 6-9 Trendon Watford, who debuted with 10 points and seven rebounds. The Rams return all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team will be senior guards Jenkins (14.0 & 4.5) and Evans (12.5), plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (12.0 & 12.5). However, don't dismiss senior guard Mike’L Simms just yet, as while he's gone just 2-of-9 from the floor in the first two games, he as just ONE turnover in 49 total minutes. “VCU is a great place,” Will Wade told reporters. “As a coach you travel around a lot. That’s the longest I’ve been in one place. I was there four years as an assistant. I was there two years as the head coach. They’ve got tremendous fans. … It will be rowdy, but it should be fun.” My bet follows the saying, "You can't go home." VCU is well-balanced and well-coached and will be looking to get back into the top-25 by knocking off LSU in this one. This contest is VCU's lone real test before playing in Niceville, Fl (Emerald Coast Classic) Nov 29-30. Wade and his Tigers will fine "nothing fun" about this visit to the Siegal Center! Good luck...Larry |
11-12-19 |
Memphis v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 74-82 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Top-15 Showdown is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. Penny Hardaway's first season as head coach of his alma mater (Memphis) resulted in a 22-win season. The Tigers lost all FIVE starters from that team but they've been replaced by what most considered the best recruiting class of the 2019-20 season. However, the situation is not without drama, as the 'jewel' of that class, 7-1 freshman James Wiseman, is the center of an NCAA investigation which ruled him ineligible. Attorneys for Wiseman have since sued the NCAA and while the legal process continue Wiseman, has averaged 22.5 & 10.0 in the Tigers' 2-0 start. Memphis is ranked 13th in the latest AP poll and tonight visits the Moda Center (home of the Trail Blazers) to take on 2-0 Oregon, which is ranked 14th. Oregon opened with a 14-point win over Fresno St and then shot 70 percent from the floor (including 13 of 19 from three-point range), in a 106-75 rout of Boise St. Wiseman leads the consensus top recruiting class in the country, which also includes guard Ellis (15.0), the 6-9 Achiuwa (12.0 & 7.5) and the 6-7 Jeffries (9.5 & 4.0). There's more, in freshman guards Quinones (7.0-3.5-4,.0) and Baugh (4.0 & 6.0 APG). Sophomore guards Alex Lomax and Tyler Harris, the only prominent holdovers from last season’s team, have combined to average 16.5 points in the wins over South Carolina State and the UIC. Oregon's Bol Bol is gone plus a trioo0f 6-9 players, King, White and Wooten, who were major contributors in Oregon's Pac 12 tourney title and Sweet 16 runs, are also gone. However, PG Ptrichard (21.5-6.5-7.0) leads an excellent cast. He teams with fellow senior Mathis (19.5) plus JC transfer Duarte (11.5-6.0-3.5) in the backcourt. Up front, 6-7 freshman Patterson (8.5) joins 6-7 UNLV transfer Juiston (10.5-4.5-5.0) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro. Okoro missed Saturday’s game after posting 10 points and 10 rebounds in the opener. He was struck by a car and is listed day-to-day. The Phil Knight Invitational (named for the Nike co-founder) is technically a neutral-court game, but it's less than two hours from Eugene, home of the Ducks. Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and owns a HUGE coaching edge over the still untested Hardaway. In 'friendly surroundings,' I 'love' the Ducks at this price. Good luck...Larry |
11-12-19 |
Missouri v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 58-63 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Game of the Month is on Xavier at 7:00 ET. Missouri and Xavier have both opened 2-0, as the two teams meet Tuesday night in Cincinnati (Cintas Center). The Tigers are coming off a 15-17 season and in the preseason, were picked to finish 13th in the 14-school SEC. Xavier is coming off a 19-16 season, although the Musketeers were ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll (despite a 2-0 start, Xavier was ranked 21st in the first regular season poll). This marks Cuonzo Martin's third season at Missouri. He led theTigers to an NCAA appearance in his first but the Tigers had no such success last season. Missouri has opened 2-0 while holding opponents to 49.0 PPG but the team's opening win was over Incarnate Word. SEVEN of last year's top-nine scorers are back, led by 6-10 junior Jeremiah Tilmon. He's averaging 14.5 & 6.0 but the only other Missouri player in double digits is sophomore guard Xavier Pinson (11.5-3.0-5..5), who comes off the bench. Mark Smith, a 6-5 junior guard who missed the final seven games of last season with a foot injury, failed to score in an opening win over Incarnate Word but rebounded with 19 points in Friday's victory over Northern Kentucky (note: No. Ky won 26 games last year and made the "Big Dance"). Evansville transfer Dru Smith starts alongside of Mark Smith in the backcourt and is averaging 8.5 PPG. Travis Steele was hired by Sean Miller at Xavier for the 2008-09 season. He was retained by Chris Mack after Miller accepted the Arizona head coaching position and has been a part of a Musketeers program that has been to eight NCAA tournaments, including an Elite Eight run in 2017. Steele was promoted to head coach when Mack took the Louisville job. Following Miller and Mack was NOT expected to be easy and it wasn't. However, Xavier rallied to win EIGHT of its final 11 regular season games and went to a postseason tourney (NIT) for the 13th time in 14 seasons. Xavier lost just ONE starter off last year's team, the 6-11 Hankins who averaged 10.6 & 5.3. The Musketeers feature a terrific forward duo, as 6-9 senior Jones is averaging 18.5 & 8.5 plus 6-7 junior Marshall is averaging 18.45-7.0-5.5. Some bad news is that returning guard Paul Scruggs (12.3 PPG last season), who had 12 points against Jacksonville before suffering a knee injury , did not play against Siena and appear s unlikely to play against Missouri (he was a preseason honorable mention all-Big East selection). However, 6-9 freshman Zach Freemantle and 6-8 Ohio U transfer Jason Carter, could play play big roles for Xavier this season. Freemantle is off to a promising start (9.0 & 5.5), while Carter (5.5 & 2.0), not so much. This will be Xavier's first 'test' of the season, or is it? Martin did lead Missouri to the NCAAs in his first season, despite a 5-6 road record. However, the Tigers had gone an "hard-to-believe" 0-30 on the road in the previous three seasons and last year reverted to form by going 2-8 on the road. Why should Missouri win here, where Xavier has gone 88-16 (.846) since joining the Big East back at the start of the 2013-14 season. What's more, 'ringing in Xavier's ear' will be Missouri's 71-56 home win over the Musketeers last season. REVENGE works in a "big way": in this one! Good luck...Larry |
11-11-19 |
Yale v. San Francisco -5.5 | Top | 79-84 |
Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on San Francisco at 9:00 ET. Yale's James Jones is the longest tenured coach in the Ivy League. He's led the Bulldogs to three Ivy championships in the last five seasons, including two NCAA appearances. The 2015-16 season was special, as Yale won 23 games (the most since 1906-07) and advanced to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 54 years where the Bulldogs upset Baylor to earn the first NCAA Tournament victory in Yale history. Last season wasn't bad either, as Jones guided Yale to Ivy League regular season and tournament titles and a 22-8 overall record. The Bulldogs knocked off Harvard in a thrilling Ivy League Tournament championship game and then nearly upset third-seeded LSU in the NCAA Tournament. Yale has opened 2-0 but gets a real test tonight, when the school visits the San Francisco Dons, who have also started 2-0. San Francisco saw head coach Tyler Smith, after three straight 20-win seasons, leave to take the Washington St job. However, his assistant coach, Todd Golden takes over. The Dons are thrilled with his promotion, as he played at St Marry's and has worked under Smith at Columbia and here at San Francisco, with a 'pit stop' under Bruce Pearl at Auburn, in between. Yale lost four starters (as well as its top-three scorers) of last year's team. Most notable, is the loss of Ivy League POY Miye Oni (17.1 & 6.3). However, Jones feels that the 6-10 Atkinson and guard Swain are almost returning starters, as each played in every game last season. He may be right about that, as Atkinson is averaging 19.0 & 4.5 and Swain 14.0 & 4.5. The team's lone returning starter, the 6-9 Bruner (10.4 & 8.3 LY), is averaging a double-double to open this season at 10.0 & 10.5 The Dons love Golden's pedigree but he will have to replace the heart and soul of last year's team, PG Ferrari (14.7 &5.5 APG). That said, the current team looks very solid and balanced. The Dons have started a trio of guards in Mineland (15.5 & 4.), Bouyea (13.0 & 6.0) and Ratinho (13.0), while Central Washington transfer Shabazz (11.0 & 6.5) looks like an excellent addition. The 7-0 Lull (12.0 & 8.0) and the 6-8 Kunen (7.5 & 7.0) start up front, with the 6-9 Raitanen (6.5 & 5.5) coming off the bench. This contest begins a tough stretch for Yale, which plays at Oklahoma St (11/17) and Penn St (11/23) a part of the NIT Season Tip-Off. San Francisco opens with SIX of its first seven at home and will take the court tonight on a nine-game November winning streak. The Dons went 7-0 in November of 2018 and have opened 2-0 here in 2019. The Dons beat two Ivy League schools in last November's 7-0 run (Harvard and Dartmouth) plus beat Princeton by 10 Saturday at Chase Center (Warriors new home) and will take a seven-game winning streak against Ivy League opponents into tonight's contest. "The Price is Right" and I'm taking the home team. Good luck...Larry |
11-08-19 |
Davidson +2 v. Auburn | Top | 66-76 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Davidson at 6:00 ET. Auburn made an incredible run to last year's Final 4, before losing 63-62 to eventual champ Virginia. The Tigers lost a 'ton' off that team, most notably guards Brown (15.9) and Harper (15.3) plus the 6-8 Okeke (12.0 & 6.8). However, the Tigers will start four seniors in 2019-20. In contrast, Davidson comes off a 24-10 season and returns all five starters. The two schools square off in the Veterans Classic in Annapolis at 6:00 ET with Auburn coming off a nine-point home win over Ga Southern on Nov 5 and Davidson playing its season-opener. The Wildcats return their entire starting lineup from last season, led by Atlantic 10 Player of the Year , PG Jon Axel Gudmundsson (16.9-7.3-4.8). He's joined on the perimeter by Kellan Grady, an all-conference pick who averaged a team-high 17.3 PPG last season and Luke Frampton (10.3 PPG last season). Starting up front are the 6-6 Pritchett (6.9 & 3.6) and the 6-10 (Drogkovic (11.1 & 6.0). Sure Auburn lost five contributors from last season, the Tigers opened this season starting FOUR seniors plus freshman Isaac Okoro, who head coach Bruce Pearl called the best defensive guard he's ever signed. Okoro scored 12 points and added five points in Tuesday's win. He joined those four seniors in the starting lineup. SF Doughtly led with 20 points, while frontcourt mates center Wiley (13 & 9) and PF Purify (13) also scored in double digits. Starting PG McCormick had nine points and four assists. Auburn snuck into the bottom of AP's preseason poll at No. 24, while Davidson was unranked. However, many think (including myself), that the Wildcats could easily be a top-25 team this season. For those "in the know," it should NOT go unnoticed that the Blue Ribbon CBB Yearbook ranked Davidson 17th! Auburn struggled against Ga Southern on Tuesday, most notably turning the ball over 21 times (averaged just 11.7 TOs per game last season). Bob McKillop starts his 31st season as Davidson's head coach and he's had quite a run (578-350 overall, with nine NCAA teams). His best-known team was the 2007-08 edition, when Steph Curry led the Wildcats into the Elite 8. Not ready to say this year's team can match that one but the Wildcats are the A-10's best team and I expect they will be NCAA-bound. Expect the Wildcats to earn a "quality win" right out of the gate. Good luck...Larry |
11-06-19 |
Cincinnati v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 56-64 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Ohio St at 8:30 ET. Ohio St and Cincinnati met in last year's season opener with the Buckeyes winning 64-56 at Cincinnati. It was the first regular-season meeting in 98 years, as the school's renewed a dormant in-state rivalry. The two school's open their respective 2019-20 seasons again on Wednesday night, this time in Columbus. The Bearcats are off a 28-7 season, while making their NINTH straight NCAA appearance. However, head coach Mick Cronin has "taken his talents" to Westwood (UCLA), after a terrific 13-year run at Cincinnati. Taking over will be John Brannen, who comes from No. Kentucky, where he won 20-plus games in each of the last three seasons, earning the Norse NCAA bids in 2017 and 2019. Ohio St's Chris Holtmann took over at Butler for Brad Stevens and three NCAA bids later, got the job in Columbus. His first season was a 25-win one but last year, while the Buckeyes did get an NCAA bid, they lost in the first round to finish just 20-15. Senior guard Jarron Cumberland, was the 2019 American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, averaging 18.8-4.4-3.6 assists. He was the ONLY Cincy player to score in double digits. Guards Jenifer and Broome (8.6 & 8.3 PPG) have graduated and the 6-11 Brooks (8.1 & 6.3) transferred to Miami. Returning starters joining Cumberland are senior 6-8 forward Tre Scott (9.3 & 6.9) and junior guard Keith Williams (9.9 & 3.2). However, the Bearcats do have an influx of roster additions including 7-1 transfer Chris Vogt, who followed Brannen from Northern Kentucky plus two highly regarded freshman guards, Zach Harvey and Mika Adams-Woods.Throw in Jarron Cumberland's cousin Jaevin, a graduate transfer from Oakland (17.2 PPG) and the Bearcats will again be a top-contender in the AAC. The centerpiece of Ohio St's team this season will be will be 6-9 junior center Kaleb Wesson, a preseason All-Big Ten pick who shed some weight and could offer more mobility this season (he averaged 14.6 & 6.9 LY). Wesson led the Buckeyes with 23 points and seven rebounds in Ohio State's 95-52 exhibition victory over Division II Cedarville on Oct 30 plus Holtmann saw 5-star freshman recruit PJ Carlton score 15 points. Carlton is a PG but so is FSU transfer CJ Walker (he started for FSU's Elite 8 team in 2017). Ohio St will have a deep backcourt with Carlton and Walker plus returning guards Woods (8.1), Muhammad (7.6) and Washington (7.0). The 6-8 Young (6.0 & 4.4) joins Wesson up front, along with freshman Gaffney (6-9) and Diallo (6-10). Cincinnati's trip to Ohio State marks the teams' first game in Columbus since 1921 and the Bearcats' first opener on the road since 2001 at Oklahoma.What's more, Cincy takes the court with a new head coach for the first time in 14 years! As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes begin a challenging non-conference schedule that includes No. 10 Villanova at home, No. 11 North Carolina on the road, No. 2 Kentucky (now likely No. 1 after the MSU win!) in Las Vegas and West Virginia in Cleveland. However, Ohio St was 12-1 with its non-conference schedule last season, before struggling in the Big Ten. Cincinnati was a 28-win team last season, yet couldn't beat a lesser Ohio St team than it will face here, losing 64-56 at home. The Bearcats first visit to Columbus since 1921, "doesn't end well!" Good luck...Larry |
11-05-19 |
Michigan State v. Kentucky +3 | Top | 62-69 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* No. 1 vs No. 2 Showdown in on Kentucky at 9:30 ET.
For only the second time in NCAA Division I history, the No. 1 and 2 teams will open their seasons against each other, as No. 1 Michigan State takes on No. 2 Kentucky in the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden in New York on Tuesday. The Spartans are coming off a run to the Final Four last season and were voted the AP's preseason No. 1 time for the first time in school history. Kentucky reached the Elite Eight of the 2019 NCAA Tournament and is ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, the NINTH straight top-five preseason ranking for the Wildcats (who says One-and-Done can't work?). The leader of Tom Izzo's squad is senior PG Cassius Winston, who averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 assists in winning Big Ten Player of the Year honors a season ago. The 6-8 Xavier Tillman emerged in the second half of the season in 2018-19, finishing with averages of 10.0 points and 7.3 rebounds. MSU also expected SG Joshua Langford (15.0 PPG before getting hurt last season) to be back but his ankle is now expected to keep him out until mid-January. Gone are the 6-9 Ward (12.9 & 6.1), tje 6-7 Goins (7.9 & 8.9) and SG McQuaid (9.8). Winston is getting lots of "pub" (Blue Ribbon named him Player of the Year) but Kentucky also has an outstanding returning PG in Ashton Hagans, who is the team leader in points, assists and steals among returnees. There is a lot of buzz for Hagans' backcourt partner, freshman Tyrese Maxey, a McDonald's All-American who was named to the All-SEC preseason second team before he's stepped on the court. However, like MSU, Kentucky lost guards Herro (14.o) and Johnson (13.5) plus forwards Washington (15.2 & 7.2) and Travis (11.2 & 7.2). The key for me here is that Calipari has become the 'master' of the One-and-Done era and as he has in the past, quickly sees his team mesh. The starting-five will consist of two freshmen and two sophomores, plus graduate transfer Nate Sestina from Bucknell. He figures to be a welcome addition, as he will provide some needed experience. The 6-9 forward averaged 15.8 points and a Patriot League-best 8.5 rebounds a season ago,. I think MSU is a bit overrated. The Spartans lost a lot (see above), will NOT get Langford back as expected (until 2020) and additionally, 6-6 forward Kyle Ahrens (4.7 & 2.5) is nursing a high ankle sprain. I'm calling for a Kentucky "W" and will take the points. Don't call it an upset. Good luck...Larry |
11-05-19 |
Kansas -2 v. Duke | Top | 66-68 |
Loss | -107 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
My NCAAB 10* Season Tip-Off is on Kansas at 7:00 ET. Duke reached the 30-win mark for the 15th time in 39 years under Coach K in 2018-19 but despite being led by three top-10 picks in the 2019 NBA Draft, the Blue Devils fell short of a national championship, falling to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Kansas know more than a little about failing to meet expectations last season, as the Jayhawks did not win the Big 12 for the first time in 15 years, then bowed out of the NCAA Tournament in the Round of 32 against Auburn. Kansas enters this contest No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll and Duke checks in at No. 4. Duke owns a 7-5 series advantage over Kansas but the Jayhawks have won the last THREE meetings, including an Elite Eight overtime thriller at the end of the 2017-18 season. However, only two players from each side that played in that game remain on the roster of their respective teams (turnover is the rule in college hoops these days). Kansas had its season disrupturd early on last year, as center Udoka Azubuike was limited to nine games in 2018-19 due to a torn ligament in his right hand,. However, he's back healthy (averaged 13.0 & 7.0 in his last full season) and it should not go unnoticed that he was voted Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year by the league's coaches. Devon Dotson (12.3 PPG) was also a preseason all-conference first-team selection, after withdrawing his name from NBA Draft consideration this summer. Key new additions are Iowa graduate transfer Isaiah Moss (9.2 PPG and 42.1% from three-point range last season) plus when Michigan head coach John Beilein left for the NBA this summer, Self was able to land the highly-touted Jalen Wilson. The 6-8 freshman will help ease the loss of the 6-9 Dedric Lawson (19.4 & 10.3). PG Tre Jones (9.4 & 5.3 APG) was the only one of the four, five-star recruits from last season's recruiting class to delay his NBA dream (Zion, RJ and Cam all left. Jones is expected to be the only non-freshman starter on this year's team. Vernon Carey Jr. was ranked as the sixth-best recruit in the nation and gives the Blue Devils an interior presence at 6-10 and 275 pounds. that only Zion Williamson was typically able to provide a season ago. The 6-9 Matthew Hurt was Duke's other five-star from the most recent recruiting class, after averaging 36.8 points, 12.4 rebounds and five assists as a senior en route to being named Minnesota's Mr. Basketball. Checking the history books, Duke is the only one of the four programs (Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan State are the others) with a winning record in this event at 5-3. However, it has lost both times it has faced Kansas (2013, 2016). As for Kansas, it has won its Champions Classic game in each of the past THREE seasons. Azubuike's return is a BIG deal, as the Jayhawks have won 47 of 56 career games. as for the Blue Devils, Duke used 11 players in the opening eight minutes of its second exhibition game, so will will have to see if Coach K has settled on which combinations to use. It could take some time. Kansas is the play! Good luck...Larry |
04-08-19 |
Texas Tech v. Virginia OVER 118 | Top | 77-85 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Game of the Month is on Tex Tech/Va Over at 9:20 ET. Texas Tech (31-6) meets Virginia (34-3) in the NCAA Tournament championship game Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, as each school looks to win its first-ever title.. Virginia has limited opponents to a national-best 55.5 PPG on 38.4 percent shooting (5th), while Texas Tech allows 58.8 PPG (3rd) on 36.8 percent shooting (1st). I could go into a detailed analysis of thsisgame but I prefer to make it "short and sweet!" Virginia's 18 regular season ACC games finished with 120 points or more (opening total of this game was 119) in 12 of 18 contests. In UVa's seven postseason games (two ACC tourney games and five NCAA tourney ones), FIVE of the seven have exceeded 120 or more. As for Texas Tech, 17 of its 18 Big 12 games finished with 120 or more points. The Red Raiders were bounced in their first Big 12 tourney contest (79-74 by West Va) and in five NCAA games, the final has finished with 120 or more, three times. I'm just going say "O-V-E-R" and let the chips fall where the may. Good luck...Larry |