Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers -6 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 127 h 16 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature' LEGEND Play is on the SF 49ers at 4:35 ET.
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01-05-20 | Seahawks -120 v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
My NFC 10* Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks (moneyline) at 4:40 ET.
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans -1 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 85 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 4:35 ET.
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Battle 4 NFC West is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET. The NFC West title is on the line when the first-place San Francisco 49ers (12-3) visit the second-place Seattle Seahawks (11-4) on Sunday night. The 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a victory but a Seattle win would give the Seahawks the division title as they won the first meeting with the 49ers. That first meeting was a Week 10 MNF "classic," in which the Seahawks won 30-27 in OT (FYI...I had Seattle as my Nov Game of the Month!). The stakes are clearly high, as the 49ers will either be the NFC's top-seed (getting home field all the way and earning a bye next weekend), or they will be the No. 5 seed, which would mean a road game next weekend at the NFC East winner (Dallas of Philly). Meanwhile, a season sweep would assure Seattle of at least the No. 3 seed, avoiding a road game next weekend vs that NFC East winner. Jimmy Garoppolo has gained his "rep" by producing a 20-5 record as an NFL starter, not by putting up 'monster' passing stats. However, he has thrown 27 TD passes against just 13 INTs this season, while throwing for 3,693 yards. If he can throw for 307 yards against Seattle, he would to join Jeff Garcia (franchise-record 4,278) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (two 4,000-yard campaigns) as the only San Francisco QBs to reach 4,000 yards in a single season. San Francisco is averaging 30.2 PPG (2nd-most) and Jimmy G has had lots of help from his running game this season,as three RBs have battled injuries to rush for between 533 and 715 yards. As a team, only the Ravens (Lamar and Mark) have run for more YPG than San Francisco's 145.1. San Francisco's WRs are nothing more than average (kudos to Jimmy G for making due), although TE Kittle (78 catches) is one of the best in the business. San Francisco's defense has fell off lately (more in a bit) but it enters this final game of the regular season allowing 277.4 YPG (2nd) and 19.3 PPG (8th). Seattle QB Russell Wilson was a strong contender for MVP honors for most of the season but Lamar Jackson's play has left all contenders "in the dust." That said, Wilson has thrown for 3,877 yards with 29 TDs and just five INTs, while rushing for 313 yards with three more TDs. For most of the season, he's been buoyed by an excellent rushing attack, led by Chris Carson (1,230 / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs). However, Seattle's RB situation is a mess after starter Carson (hip) and reserve C.J. Prosise (arm) were hurt last week to join main backup Rashaad Penny (knee) on the injured list. Seattle signed two former team members in Marshawn Lynch (2010-15) and Robert Turbin (2012-14) to support new starter Travis Homer. I guess Curt Warner was NOT available! Seattle's defense no longer bears the moniker "Legion of Boom," as the unit is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) on 380.5 YPG (26th). OK, so what's the play, you ask? Yes, Seattle is banged up but let's go back and take a look at that "dominant" San Francisco defense. After allowing only 11 points per game the first seven contests, the Niners have given up 26.5 points PPG over their last eight contests (that's the NINTH-worst total in the league during that span!). Feeling a little better about my Seattle pick? How about trying this stat on? First, let me note that Seattle's home field is one of the loudest in the NFL and Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting in it for the first time, as he missed last season's visit because of a torn ACL. How have the 49ers fared in the Great Pacific Northwest? Not so well. The 49ers have lost EIGHT straight visits to Seattle, including the 2013 NFC Championship Game! Seattle gets to stay home next week with a win and would earn the No. 2 seed if the Packers lose (earning a bye) and the No. 1 seed if the Saints lose, as well (hardly likely). As for the 49ers, I expect them to lose, which means they are off to Dallas or Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-29-19 | Raiders v. Broncos -3 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -120 | 82 h 0 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC West) is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.
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12-29-19 | Eagles v. Giants +4.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Shocker is on the NY Giants at 4:25 ET.
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12-29-19 | Colts v. Jaguars OVER 41.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Jax Over at 4:25 ET.
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -4 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -116 | 155 h 33 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 0 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Battle 4 NFC East is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.
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12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 45 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Oak/LAC Over at 4:05 ET.
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12-21-19 | Bills v. Patriots -6 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 99 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC East) is on the NE Patriots at 4:30 ET.
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12-21-19 | Texans -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 99 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.
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12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints -9 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Madness Play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.
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12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers -1.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.
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12-15-19 | Rams v. Cowboys +2 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 59 h 6 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.
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12-15-19 | Vikings -1 v. Chargers | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.
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12-15-19 | Bears v. Packers OVER 40 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Chi/GB at 1:00 ET. The Bears and Packers will meet for the 200th time Sunday at legendary Lambeau Field. The forecast at kick-off as the team's renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry is 17 degrees with a wind chill factor of eight, according to the National Weather Service. The high is expected to be 19, nine degrees below average for Dec 15 in Green Bay. The Bears have won THREE straight and FOUR of five to remain in the mix for a wild card spot at 7-6, while the 10-3 Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot but have plenty of work left to lock down the NFC North and, perhaps, a first-round bye. These teams opened the 2019 season with the Packers winning 10-3 at Chicago back on Thursday, Sep . The Packers were out-yarded by the Bears in that opening week win when Chicago QB when Trubisky was playing terrible. However, Chicago's turnaround can be tied directly to the improved play of Trubisky, who has completed 70 percent of his passes with seven passing touchdowns and two rushing scores during the three-game winning streak. "He has continued to gain confidence and trust with himself and then with his teammates," QB coach Dave Ragone told the Chicago Tribune. "Hopefully that continues the rest of the season. But you've seen the progress. Things have been clearer. Sharper." Veteran WR Allen Robinson (76 catches / 7 TDs on the season) has been the beneficiary of Trubisky's solid play, recording 19 catches for 265 yards and four TDs during the 3-0 run. Rookie RB David Montgomery (just 680 RY on 3.5 YPA) is also "coming around," with 161 rushing yards the last two games, while averaging 4.5 YPA. Green Bay is averaging a pedestrian 18.8 points during its last five games, despite meeting the Redskins and Giants during this time frame. Those issues were clearly evident in a sluggish 20-15 home victory over a three-win Washington team that gave Green Bay all it could handle last Sunday. "I just know we're not where we need to be as a football team," head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters this week. "I still think ... I'm optimistic we can get there." Green Bay had 167 passing yards and 174 rushing yards in last week's win, after posting 243 and 79, respectively, in a victory at the New York Giants the previous Sunday. There is a sense that the offense needs to find its identity for the stretch run. Aaron Rodgers has a terrific 23-2 TD-to-INT ratio on the season but he's had a QB rating of over 100.0 in four different games this season, but also four with under 90.0. He has clearly become highly reliant on RB Aaron Jones (779 YR on 4.4 YPA with 12 TDs plus 45 catches with 3 TDs) in first-year coach Matt LaFleur's offense but Jones has four games with at least 150 yards from scrimmage and five with fewer than 50. No doubt the Bears are playing better and Green Bay is not a "complete" team but Rodgers is 18-5 as the starter against the Bears and including the playoffs, the Packers have won 16 of the last 19 meetings with their bitter rivals. Yes, the Bears have won FOUR of five but the wins have come over the QB-less 3-9-1 Lions (twice), the 2-11 Giants (currently on a 9-game losing skid) and the 'imploding' Cowboys. It will be cold in Green Bay but sunny and we get to go "over" a very low number. I sure don't trust the Bears but on "current form," I am beginning to have some faith in Trubisky. That said, Rodgers is overdue for a "big game" and why not here against the team's most-hated rival and one that Green Bay has dominated the last decade (see above). This one is Goin' Over (no 10 FGs in this one, like last week's 'nightmare' with the Dolphins/Jets)! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2 | Top | 48-46 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 45 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.
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12-08-19 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 45 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 90 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET. The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019). The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best). MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2! I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However, Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much! One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home. Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" | |||||||
12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17. The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010. Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd). There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0% for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games). DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th. Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 141 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Ten/Ind Over at 1:00 ET. The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field. The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018. One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7. Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season. What could be different here? The Titans have produced 842 total yards over the past two games and are averaging 29.4 PPG over the last five, third in the NFL during that span behind only Baltimore (39.3) and San Francisco (30.8). Tannehill is also tied for third in the NFL with Lamar Jackson in passer rating (111.4), behind only Minnesota's Kirk Cousins (114.8) and Seattle's Russell Wilson (112.1). I won't buck Indy and the team's domination of the Titans in this venue, nor will I 'step in front of' Indy's ATS record its last 10 against a wining team. However, for the Colts to keep those streaks 'alive,' they will have to outscore the Tannehill and Henry-led Tennessee offense, playing with supreme confidence. My play is O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts -1 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 55 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.
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11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots -6 | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -117 | 105 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 86 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Year is on Jax/Ten Over at 4:05 ET.
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11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET. Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak. Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th). There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th). The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-18-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:15 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West with a 12-4 record in 2018 behind a MVP performance by QB Patrick Mahomes. KC then opened 2019 win FOUR straight wins, averaging 33.8 PPG with Mahomes averaging 377.5 YPG passing with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, the Colts and Texans then 'solved' Mahomes to some extent, handing KC back-to-back losses. KC visited Denver for a Thursday game to kick off Week 7 and while the Chiefs won 30-6, Mahomes suffered a dislocated right kneecap. Moore filled in admirably for Mahomes the next two games, with KC losing a hard-fought game to Green Bay but then edged the Vikings, 26-23. Mahomes didn't miss a beat in his return from that two-game absence, completing a career-high 36 passes for 446 yards and three TDs but Kansas City lost 35-32 at Tennessee. The Chiefs' once sizable advantage in the AFC West is now gone, following losses in FOUR of their last six games. The 6-4 Chiefs look to stem the tide on Monday night when they travel to Mexico City to face the Los Angeles Chargers, tied with the 6-4 Oakland Raiders for first-place in the division. The 4-6 LA Chargers saw their two-game "mini" winning streak end in Week 10, losing 26-24 at Oakland. Philip Rivers entered Week 11 leading the league in passing yards (2,816) but was also third in interceptions (10). He had three in LA's last game against Oakland, including a "pick-6" that loomed large in that 26-24 loss. The Chargers were among the league's better teams in not committing turnovers the last two seasons but they have 16 giveaways this season and their TO ratio of minus-6 is better than only FIVE teams. More notably, FIVE of their turnovers have occurred in goal-to-go situations! Last year's game between the Chiefs and Rams was relocated to Los Angeles less than a week before the game when the field at Mexico City's Azteca Stadium was deemed unplayable because of rain and the stadium having hosted concerts less than a month before the game. Both coaches said they have received favorable updates about the turf going into the game. The Chargers have spent the week at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs to get acclimated to the altitude, while the Chiefs have kept their same routine. Mahomes enters this game with no health issues and KC has to be thrilled with the play of WR Tyreek Hill. He become the first player in franchise history to record at least 140 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games, as he followed up his 140-yard effort in a 26-23 win over Minnesota on Nov 3 (with Moore at QB) with a career-best 11 catches for 157 yards and one TD against the Titans (Mahomes was back at QB for that one). RB Damien Williams had a season-high 24 touches resulting in 109 scrimmage yards (77 rushing, 32 receiving) against Tennessee. His backfield partner McCoy could use more work, as he's averaging 5.2 YPA but has a modest 72 carries on the season. Mahomes has a deep group of receivers, as besides Hill, there is TE Klece (56 catches), Watkins (40 catches despite missing two games) plus Hardman and Robinson. The KC defense is allowing 148.1 YPG on the ground (30th) and 23.9 PPG on the season (20th). Sure Rivers is on pace for another 4,000-yard season (maybe 4,500 yards?) but the running game has given him little support all season (86.1 YPG ranks 25th) and the Chargers come in averaging a very modest 20.7 PPG (21st). Melvin Gordon did rush for a season-high 108 yards in the loss at Oakland but he's still averaging just 3.5 YPA and I'm not even a little convinced he's back to being the player we saw from 2016-18. The D is good though, allowing 19.4 PPG (6th) on 318.3 YPG (5th). This is a HUGE game for KC, as the Chirefs have a bye in Week 12 and then in Week 13, will host the Raiders. The Raiders are at the Jets this coming Sunday, so could very well move to 7-4, meaning if KC doesn't win here, the Chiefs could be a game back of the Raiders in that Week 13 contest. Mahomes had little troiuble against LA's defense last season, passing for six TDs and zero INTs, posting QB ratings of 127.5 and 110.3. Yes, the Chargers did beat the Chiefs 29-28 in a Week 15 contest but that win eended a NINE-game losing streak for the Chargers against the Chiefs. "Series form" returns here, as KC gets the win AND cover! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West for the second straight year in 2018 and went on to play New England in the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears rode the NFL's best defense (in terms of points allowed) in 2018 to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Both teams entered 2019 with expectations that they would defend their respective division titles. However, as the Bears come to LA Memorial Coliseum to take on the Rams in Week 11, they sit at 4-5 in their division, well behind 8-2 Green Bay and 7-3 Minnesota. As for the 5-4 Rams, they are looking up at 8-1 San Francisco and 8-2 Seattle in the NFC West. There is NOTHING wrong with Chicago's defense, as the Bears are allowing 17.4 PPG (4th), which is actually slightly better than the team's NFL-leading 17.7 average in 2018. However, Chicago's QB play has generally stunk (that's a highly technical NFL insider term!) and its running game also sucks (another highly sophisticated one). Trubisky is coming off a three-TD game in last week's 20-13 win over Detroit (one which snapped a four-game losing streak) but he has just eight TD passes in his eight games (he's missed two due to injury). A closer look reveals he has not thrown a TD pass in FIVE of his eight starts in 2019, accounting for his eight TD throws in last week's game with Detroit, a two-TD effort in a Week 7 loss at New Orleans and a three-TD game in the team's MNF Week 3 win at Washington. As for the running game, the Bears are averaging 80.6 YPG (28th) on a woeful 3.5 YPA. What's more, just as rookie David Montgomery appeared to have found his stride by rolling up 235 yards and three TDs over his last three games, after totaling 231 and two TDs in his previous six, an ankle injury in practice is raising doubts about his availability for this contest. If Monty doesn't play, here's the situation. No other Chicago player has as much as 100 rushing yards on the season. Sean McVay has been labeled a "boy genius" for leading the Rams to back-to-back division crowns in his first two seasons at the helm, which included a Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. However, the Rams' once-high octane offense has gone missing since prior to last season's Super Bowl appearance, with QB Jared Goff taking large steps backward behind an offensive line that has been ravaged by injury. McVay himself realizes there's a strong argument to be made that the Bears ended the Rams' two seasons of offensive brilliance with their 15-6 victory at Soldier Field last season in Week 14. LA was 11-1 but Chicago reduced McVay's offense to a shadow of its usual self. RB Todd Gurley produced only 28 yards rushing, Goff went 20 of 44 for 180 yards, and the Rams managed only 214 yards, less than half of their season average. The current Rams' offense continues to be a shadow of its former self, averaging 25.1 PPG (10th) on 375.8 YPF (12th), after an inept performance at Pittsburgh last Sunday in which it scored only THREE of the team's 12 points. OK, so why am I on the Rams? I go back to those technical terms regarding Trubisky (he stinks) and the state of Chicago's running game (it sucks). Chicago dominated the Rams in that Week 14 contest in Chicago, benefiting from the weather conditions of a chilly, biting night last December. The weather report for Sunday is sunny and in the mid-80s and don't forget that this is a 5:20 local time start (FB conditions will be perfect). This is a make-or-break game for LA, as while it plays Arizona twice in its final six games after this one, it also faces Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco. A loss here and LA can basically 'cancel' the rest of the 2019 season. Expect the Rams to 'show some life' against a VERY mediocre (I'm being nice here) Chicago team. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-17-19 | Patriots -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. 2019 has not been a "vintage Brady season," as the six-0timer Super Bowl-winner owns a modest 14-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and a 93.1 QB rating. The Pats' running game offers little support, as Michel leads the team with 482 yards (just 3.3 YPA), with no other player rushing for as much as 150 yards (Pats rank 23rd in rushing at 92.9 YPG). The good news coming out of the Baltimore loss was the fact the Brady established a rapport with recent acquisition Mohamed Sanu, as the WR hauled in 10 receptions for 81 yards and a score in just his second game with the team. New England's defense enters Sunday No. 1 in both points allowed (10.9 PPG) and total D (249.3 YPG) but the loss to the Ravens sure gives pause to the possibility that the Pats' D just may not be as dominant as once thought. Philadelphia had absorbed lopsided road losses at Minnesota and Dallas before rebounding with an impressive 31-13 victory in Buffalo and a 22-14 win over Chicago. Conventional wisdom says Carson Wentz is having an "off year" but he has 11 TDs vs just two two INTs over his last seven games and has thrown a TD pass in 12 straight games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. That said, WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle) did not practice for a second straight game (he's expected to miss) and fellow WR DeSean Jackson was placed on injured reserve. The Eagles may need to lean more on the RB tandem of Jordan Howard (525 yards on 4.4 YPA with 6 TDs) and rookie Miles Sanders (336 yards on 4.4 YPA) but Howard is listed as questionable with a stinger. Philadelphia's defense is getting healthier but its still ranks just 19th in allowing 23.7 YPG. Here's the bottom line. The Pats come into this contest as the MUCH healthier team plus are coming off a loss. FYI...The Pats are a remarkable 41-16 ATS (that's 72%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. If that's not enough, the Pats are returning to the field off a loss (and a bye), to face the team that beat them 41-33 in Super Bowl LII (February 2018). It's not too often that the New England has failed to come out on top in a high-profile match but one of the most noteworthy examples in recent memory was the above-mentioned Super Bowl loss. Tom Brady has acknowledged there was a lot of "mental scar tissue" from the 41-33 loss to Philadelphia. "They deserved it that year and now a couple years later we get a chance to play the organization again," Brady said. "We’ve had a lot changes. They’ve had a lot of changes. It’s totally different circumstances. Huge game for us. Big game for them. The better team is going to win." Isn't New England the better team? That's my bet. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-17-19 | Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 43.5 | Top | 26-36 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Arz/SF Over at 4:05 ET. San Francisco entered last Monday night's game as the NFL's lone unbeaten but fell 27-24 (OT) in one of 2019's most exciting games. The 49ers look to rebound from that loss when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The two NFC West rivals will be meeting for teh second time in three weeks, as the 49ers won 28-25 at Phoenix in a Week 9 Thursday game on Halloween. It may come as a surprise to many that Arizona had beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times,prior to taht contest. Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ saw his team open 0-3-1 in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7. However, to be fair, those three wins came over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 4-24). The Cards have followed their three-game winning streak by losing 31-9 at New Orleans, 28-25 at home to San Francisco and 30-27 at New Orleans. Kyler Murray (last year's No. 1 pick) has lived up to expectations, completing 63.9% for an average of 290.4 YPG through the air. He has 12 TD passes and just five INTs in 360 attempts (great stat for a rookie!). He also leads the team in rushing, gaining 351 yards on 5.9 YPA. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald leads the team with 50 receptions for 556 yards despite slowing down, while second-year WR Christian Kirk is on the rise, after catching six passes for career-highs of 138 yards and three TDs in last week's loss to Tampa Bay (he's missed three games but has 40 catches and counting). On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona has struggled most of the season, allowing 28.1 PPG (27th) on 412.5 YPG (31st). The 49ers were overdue to lose but now the test is to bounce back. Jimmy Garoppolo's stats do NOT match Murray's as he's averaging 231.9 YPG passing (Murray averages 60 more YPG) and his ratio of 14-8 is surely no better than Murray's 12-5. Let's not even mention that Garoppolo has 33 rushing yards to Murray's 351 (OK, I did!). Of course, Garoppolo 'hangs his hat' on his 14-3 record as a starting QB (as well he should). A cause for concern is TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) could miss his second straight game with knee and ankle injuries, while WR Emmanuel Sanders (13 for 161, two TDs in three games with the team) will be a game-time decision after suffering a rib injury during Monday's loss. The 49ers are averaging 161.8 YPG on the ground (2nd) but were held to just 87 yards by Seattle (3.2 YPC). However, it's hard to imagine San Francisco NOT running the ball well against the Cards. Despite Monday's loss, the 49ers still come in allowing just 14.6 PPG on 251.6 YPG, ranking second in the league in both categories. What to expect? The San Francisco D is terrific but as I noted in taking Seattle Nov Game of the Month) last Monday, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense (note: San Francisco has allowed 52 points its last two games). I noted above that Garoppolo stats don't quite measure up to his gaudy W/L record as a starter but I won't ignore that he had no problem against this Arizona defense just 18 days ago, ripping them for 317 yards and four TD passes (all by the end of the start of the 4Q). I noted Arizona's sad-sack defense numbers already but will add that in losing THREE in a row, the Cards have allowed 31, 28 and 30 points. I see little reason why the 49ers won;t score easily on Arizona here (30-plus points) but will add that the Cards never gave up in that Week 9 loss to San Francisco, scoring 11 points in the 4th quarter to earn the 'back door' cover. I will not be taking the points in this one but I will go OVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers -4 | Top | 29-3 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET. The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7. Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history. Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th). Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore. Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st). Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions. I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-11-19 | Seahawks +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 126 h 11 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Nov Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET. Who'da thunk it? Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but here in 2019, when the Ravens knocked off the Pats in Week 9's SNF game, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team. The 49ers have some extra rest (played the Thursday night game in Week 9) and they'll need every edge they can get, as Russell Wilson (leading MVPcandidiate?) leads the Seattle Seahawks into Levi's Stadium. Seattle is 7-2 and win would leave them just a half-game back of San Francisco in the NFC West. This once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade but with the departure of Harbaugh, most of the steam came out of the rivalry. In fact, this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014, where both teams have a winning record. No QB is playing better than Russell Wilson, who has a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a passer rating of 102 or higher in eight of nine games. He's completing 68.3% for 2,505 yards and his QB rating of 118.2 is tops in the league. Tyler Lockett (team-high 59 catches and six TDs) has developed into Wilson's top target but note that rookie DK Metcalf is a star in the making, with 29 catches (18.1 YPC) with five TDs. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but the team checks in averaging 131.7 YPG on the ground this season (7th). However, RB Carson is coming on strong. After totaling only 158 yards in Seattle's first three games, he's had 100-plus in FOUR of his last six (764 yards on the season). Seattle is a legitimate NFC title contender but its "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past, as the Seahawks are allowing 25.6 PPG (22nd) on 380.8 YPG (25th). While QB Jimmy Garoppolo takes up a lot of 'oxygen' (more in a bit), one HAS to start with San Francisco's defense. The 49ers rank first in total D (24.10 YPG) and second in scoring D (12.8 PPG). However, the 49ers suffered a big loss last week when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. "Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him," starting MLB Fred Warner said. "He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart." Getting back to Garoppolo, he threw for a personal-best four TDs and eclipsed 300 yards (317) for the third time in his career in San Francisco's 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct 31. He's completing 70.3% of his passes but even with that four-TD effort, his ratio on the season is 13-7 (not 22-1 like Wilson). Garoppolo's 'LEGEND' is based on his record as a starter (16-2, including 14-2 with the 49ers). He's greatly helped by the NFL's second-best rushing attack (171.1 YPG), led by Matt Beida (524 yards on 5.3 YPA) plus supported by Coleman (355) and Mostert (307). Seattle had won 10 straight in the series before a 26-23 (OT) loss at Levi’s in Week 15 of 2018. However, as noted above, San Francisco was in a "rebuilding mode" in that stretch. What has me 'loving' Seattle is this spot is Seattle going 4-0 SU on the road in 2019 and covering SIX in a row as an underdog going back to early in the 2018 season. I called Baltimore's upset in Week 9 over the Pats and predict it will be "deja vu all over again" here in Week 10, with Seattle handing San Francisco its first loss of 2019. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). However, the Vikings lost a close one last Sunday at KC 26-23, despite the Chiefs playing without Pat Mahomes. The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG but the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest and after a bye week, a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants in a MNF Week 9 contest. The Cowboys now play a THIRD straight primetime game, as they welcome the Vikings to Arlington on Sunday night in Week 10. The Vikings got a nice break last week when the Chargers upset the Packers, so Minnesota remains just one game back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. He's completing 68.8% for 2,217 yards with 16 TDs and three INTs on the season (112.0 QB rating) but while hew threw fthree TDs last Sunday, he has still not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He fell to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two FGs in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Some bad news comes in the fact that WR Adam Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and will not play. RB Dalvin Cook has run for an NFL-leading 894 yards (5.1 YPA / 9 TDs) and may get more work. Minnesota's D has been very good, allowing 17.6 PPG (4th) on 320.9 YPG (8th). Dak Prescott is having an excellent season, averaging 297.5 YPG passing and completing 69.6 percent of his passes (both would be career highs). He leads an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 YPG, although Dallas is averaging 28.4 PPG (just 5th-best). WR Amari Cooper (42 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. We can also expect Dallas to lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott (741 yards on 4.7 YPA with six TDs), as he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys' D hasn't gotten enough credit, as it is allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 318.1 YPG (6th). Here's the bottom line. Minnesota fell back into some bad habits at KC, as Kirk Cousins was again subject to the sort of pressure that often gets him rattled. The Vikings rarely played from behind their four-game winning streak but Cousins is now 0-10-1 SU in his career with Minnesota when trailing in the fourth quarter. Adding 'insult to injury,' Minnesota enters this contest winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record. One more thing, Prescott, is 4-0 head-to-head against Cousins! Good luck..Larry | |||||||
11-10-19 | Ravens v. Bengals +10.5 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -135 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Baltimore Ravens have been the 'kings' of the preseason (have won 17 straight!) but since winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Baltimore has missed the playoffs in FOUR of the last six seasons. However, the 2019 Ravens are winners of FOUR in a row, after handing the Patriots their first loss of the season last Sunday night. Baltimore's convincing 37-20 victory over the Patriots leaves them 6-2 in the AFC North but more importantly, the victory could be the kind of signature win to propel the team to greater heights. Baltimore heads to Cincinnati this Sunday to take on the 0-8 Bengals, the NFL's only remaining winless team. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and decided to pull the plug on longtime starting QB Andy Dalton. Fourth-round draft choice Ryan Finley (NC St) will be making his first NFL start. Many teams questioned whether Heisman-winner Lama Jackson had "the goods" to become an NFL starter but few (if any) have ny doubts now. Jackson has turned the Ravens into an offensive juggernaut that leads the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. Baltimore is also first in rushing with 204.9 YPG (5.5 YPA) and second in total offense (427.0 YPG). Jackson is completing 64.3% for 1,813 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs, plus leads the team with 637 rushing yards (6.4 YPA and 5 TDs). Another former Heisman-winner, RB Mark Ingram, has 585 rushing yards, while averaging 5.1 YPA and leads the team with seven rushing TDs. Baltimore's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era but with its "new and improved" offense, allowing 22.0 PPG (16th) on 348.8 YPG (15th) is good enough. The Bengals out-played the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle (429 yards to 232) but lost 21-20. It's been all downhill since, as the Bengals have gone 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS and now will turn the starting QB duties over to Finley, who has never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. Cincinnati's offense ranks 29th in scoring (15.5 PPG) and 25th in total offense (317.9 YPG) plus the team's turnover margin of minus-9 isn't helping a defense ranks last in yardage allowed (435.8 YPG) and 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). The good news? How can it get worse? No Dalton at QB just may be a good thing. "I think I'm ready for it," Finley told reporters. "I'm confident in my ability to play, and I'm confident in this team's ability to bounce back and get some wins." So why play Cincy? Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its nine division games since the beginning of last season (that's an 89% "go-against) and believe it or not, Cincinnati has won SIX of the last seven times it has hosted Baltimore. Baltimore is 'ripe' for a letdown after its Sunday night domination of the Pats and enters this game on an abysmal 2-12 ATS run when favored (an 86% "go-against), going back to Week 7 of last season.. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns OVER 40 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Buf/Cle Over at 1:00 ET. It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday. Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG). Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd). A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home. OK, I am NOT about to take the Browns but don't they have to be 'juiced' playing just their second game in Cleveland since Week 3. Buffalo does not have a prolific offense but scoring against the Browns has come fairly easy for most opponents. Yes, Buffalo has a terrific D but the Browns have to believe that if they are to have a chance to win, they will HAVE to find a way into the end zone. The low Over/Under number makes this a game that's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-10-19 | Lions v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET. The 3-4-1 Detroit Lions and the 3-5 Chicago Bears meet Sunday at Soldier Field and while neither team looks "playoff-bound" (or playoff-worthy), the loser of this contest can pretty much start preparing for the 2020 draft and season. The Lions lost 31-24 at Oakland last Sunday, falling to 1-4 in their last five games. QB Matthew Stafford passed for 406 yards and three TDs but failed to connect on a fourth-down attempt in the waning moments. As for the Bears, they went three-and-out on their first five possessions and managed a meager nine total yards of offense in the first half at Philly, falling behind 19-0 in a 22-14 loss, the team's FOURTH in a row. Stafford will take the field today for his 150th career game and his numbers look good again in 2019. He's completing 64.3 percent and ranks second in TD passes (19), fourth in yards (2,499) and fifth in QB rating (106.0). He has thrown for more than 300 yards, and three-plus TDs (with just one INT / has five on the season in 291 attempts) in each of the last three games, but the Lions are just 1-2 in that span (more on that, later). Then again, he gets almost no help from a running game averaging just 96.0 YPG (21st) and Detroit's defense ranks among the worst in the NFL, allowing 424.1 YPG (31st) and 27.1 PPG (27th). The Bears won the NFC Central last season with a 12-4 record, led by a defense that ranked first in points allowed (17.7 per) and third in total defense (299.7 YPG). However, Chicago's postseason ended with Cody Parkey's double-doink FG misfire in a 16-15 home loss to the Eagles. Chicago's defense remains solid, allowing 18.0 PPG (6th) on 323.6 YPG (9th) but the team's offense has been a HUGE problem.The Bears are averaging 17.8 PPG (27th) on 266.8 YPG (29th). Most of the blame is falling on the shoulders of QB quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who is averaging 180.4 YPG passing (Stafford is averaging 312) with five TDs and three INTs for a QB rating of 80.0. Trubisky has gone so far as to publicly request that televisions are turned off inside Halas Hall in a bid to shield the sputtering team from outside criticism. Some good news on offense is that rookie RB David Montgomery appears to have overcome a slow start and is headed in the right direction after rushing for his first multi-TD performance of his career at Philly last Sunday (he ran for 135 yards the week before in a one-point loss to the Chargers). As noted above, Stafford had a HUGE game at Oakland last Sunday but in the end, failed to convert. His pass to Logan Thomas from the one-yard-line was broken up in the end zone with three seconds remaining. And so it goes...Stafford had a breakout season in 2011 (5,038 yards) and followed with SIX straight seasons of better than 4,000 yards, before falling short with 3,777 in 2018. He's averaging 312 YPG in 2019, putting on pace to challenge 5,000 passing yards again. However, the Lions are 1-4 after a 2-0-1 start. So what else is new? For all of Stafford's 'pretty' numbers (and HUGE contract), his record as a starting QB sits at 69-79-1. The Bears won both meetings last season, 23-16 at Detroit, and then 34-22 at home. Stafford threw FOUR 'picks' in the two contests and note that while Trubisky missed the win in Detroit because of an injury, he threw for a career-high 355 yards (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in that 34-22 home win. Chicago snaps its four-game losing skid here. Good luck.,..Larry | |||||||
11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 8:20 ET. The 4-5 LA Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders are still both 'alive' for a playoff spot in the AFC but both teams will need to finish strong. The Chargers opened 2-5 but eked out a 17-16 win at Chicago in Week 8 and then played their best game of the year in beating the Packers 26-11 in LA last Sunday (Green Bay entered the game 7-1). The Chargers dominated the first half on both sides of the ball gained 250 yards in the first half, while holding the Packers to just 50 yards. However, LA led just 9-0, before RB Gordon added two rushing TDs and PK Badgley kicked a fourth FG for a 15-point win. The Raiders went just 4-12 in 2018, in Jon Gruden's 1st year back as the team's head coach. All in all, Oakland has to be happy to be 4-4 midway through its 16-game schedule, as after opening with two home games (a win over Denver and a loss to KC), the Raiders played their next FIVE games away from home (four road games and a contest in London). Oakland's game last Sunday against the Lions was the team's first home game since Sep 15. The Raiders needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off Detroit 31-24 but moved within a game of the sixth and final playoff slot. "I love this place. It's special," QB Derek Carr said of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "To come home in front of them and get a win, especially the way we did it. It would be nice to win something 40-0 some time. But when you win one like this, it does so many good things for a team." LA fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt following the team's 17-16 victory in Chicago and in last Sunday's win over Green Bay, there was clearly more of an effort to run the ball. Melvin Gordon ran for 80 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler added 70 yards, as the Chargers established a season-high of 159 yards rushing against Green Bay. Rivers threw for 294 yards on a season-low 28 attempts but as noted above, the result was LA's best game of the year. Rivers is averaging 292.6 YPG through the air and is well on his way to another 4,000-yard passing season (his 11th in the L12 years) but he's got a modest 12-7 TD-to-INT ratio. LA's defense has been solid all season, ranking 8th in both points allowed (18.7 per) and total D (322.8 YPG). Rumors were that Gruden and QB Carr were not quite on the same page but Derek Carr is having an excellent season, completing 71.2% for an average of 251.4 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs (105.1 QB rating). Rookie RB Jacobs (from Alabama) is blossoming into a star, rushing for 740 yards on 4.9 YPA with six TDs. Carr has capable WRs in Williams (23 catches / 15.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Renfro (24 catches / 10.7 YPC / 2 TDs) but his "go-to" guy has been TE Darren Waller, who leads the team with 48 catches and 548 receiving yards. Oakland's D has been a problem, allowing 27.0 PPG (26th) and an NFL-high 299.9 YPG. Los Angeles has won four in a row in the series (including a pair of double-digits victories by a combined 46-16 last season) but Oakland is NOT a 4-12 team in 2019. I'm not ready to accept that the Chargers' rushing attack is now back on track because of ONE game, as after all, the Chargers rank 28th in the NFL by averaging 79.4 YPG on the ground on a 3.6 YPA. Meanwhile, Oakland's Jacobs has become the first rookie since Cincinnati's Ickey Woods to rush for two TDs three times in his first eight contests, while to leading a running game averaging 136.4 YPG on the ground (4th). Jacobs and Oakland's OL, which has permitted only one sack the last four weeks, have sure helped Derek Carr in playing mistake-free football. Carr has nine TDs and just one INT over his last five games, while posting QB ratings of 119.2, 125.0 and 116.2 in his last three. This is a HUGE game for the Raiders, as after the Chargers, they play the Bengals (0-8) and Jets (1-7). Beat the Chargers and the Raiders could reasonably be 7-4 through 11 games! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET. The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG. However, the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest. Dallas had last week off and returns here for a MNF game vs long-time rival, the NY Giants. The Giants benched Eli after Week 2 and rookie Daniel Jones led them to two straight wins, 32-31 at Tampa Bay and then 24-3 at home over Washington. However,New York comes in on a FOUR-game losing streak, after dropping a 31-26 decision to Detroit last Sunday. The 4-3 Cowboys look to record their THIRD straight season sweep of the New York Giants on Monday night, after beating them 35-17 back on Sep 8 (Week 1). Dak Prescott has been under center for each of Dallas' last five starts against New York, including throwing for 405 yards and a career high-tying four TDs back in Week 1. Prescott is completing 70.6% for 2,213 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs (102.6 QB rating). RB Ezekiel Elliott ended his preseason holdout just in time to find the end zone in the opener versus New York and he's scored in SIX of Dallas' in seven games. He ran for 111-yards against the Eagles and has 602 rushing yards on 4 .5 YPC with six TDs on the season. "I think I've gotten into the groove," Elliott said. "The last game was the best I felt this season, so build on top of that and keep that thing going."The Dallas D is allowing 17.7 PPG (5th) on 324.1 YPG (9th). Jones, the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, starred in his first career start (Week 3 at Tampa Bay), . However, he then averaged 197.8 YPG passing with a 4-7 ratio over his next four games (NYG went 1-3). Yes, the Giants lost last Sunday at Detroit, but Jones joined Prescott as the ONLY rookie QBs with two games of 300-plus yards, two-plus TD and zero INTs in NFL history, after he threw for 322 yards and four TDs vs the Lions. RB Saquon Barkley’s return to health (136 rushing yards and 87 receiving yards on 11 catches the last two games) has given the G-Men balance plus WR Sterling Shepard and CB Corey Ballentine are both expected to return to action, as each player was a full participant in practice this week. My take is that the Cowboys are nothing more than an average team and they enter this Monday matchup fat and happy, having destroyed their lone rival to the NFC East Division 37-10 in Week 7. I'm NOT sure having a bye week after that win was helpful and let's NOT forget that Dallas entered the game vs Philly off THREE straight losses. The Cowboys make a return to "the scene of the crime," the team's low moment of 2019 in which Dallas lost on this same MetLife field to the Jets on Oct 13 (see above). Barkley's healthy, WR Tate has 20 catches for 267 yards in his last three games (back from a suspension) and now Shephard rejoins the team, after catching 25 passes in the first four games of 2019. Take the points, as a win will "not come easy" for Dallas, if at all. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. | |||||||
11-03-19 | Browns v. Broncos OVER 39 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Cle/Den Over at 4:25 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, as they were expecting to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season enters its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-5, after losing their THIRD consecutive game 27-13 at New England last Sunday. The Browns visit Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos. Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos D is allowing 18.9 PPG (4th) on 304.5 YPG (4th) but the team's offense (15.6 PPG, ranking 28th) has kept them from doing any better than 2-6. Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 57.6 percent with 6 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 67.8. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (738 yards on 5.5 YPC with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry, who have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play. The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (22nd). Denver QB Joe Flacco was diagnosed with a herniated disk in his neck after last Sunday's 15-13 to the Colts, a contest in which he complained about the team's conservative play-calling. Whether or not Flacco was right, we know that he has failed to eclipse more than 213 yards passing in each of his last four games and has thrown just six TDs (five INTs) on the season. Denver's running game is averaging only 110.0 YPG (16th) but the Broncos do own a pair of quality RBs in Lindsay (492 yards / 4.5 YPC) and Freeman (359 yards / 4.1 YPC). Flacco's herniated disk will sideline him six weeks at a minimum, so the Broncos will turn to Brandon Allen, a fourth-year pro from Arkansas who will make his first start since Jan 2, 2016, against Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl. Allen becomes the SIXTH different starting QB for the Broncos since the start of the 2016 season (Elway sure KNOWS a QB when he sees one!). "First of all, Brandon is a very intelligent dude,” RB Phillip Lindsay said. “I’m excited to see what he has to offer. I think he’s going to move around a lot, and I think he’s going to take shots and stuff.” Speaking of Lindsay, he joins Freeman as a solid 1-2 RB Denver combo that will face a Cleveland rush D allowing 143.3 YPG on the ground (29th). I expect Denver to be successful against Cleveland's sad-sack defense but I also see a good (possibly excellent) performance from Mayfield, now that Browns realize 2019 we be another in a long line of disappointments. This VERY low Over/Under number gives us a strong play on the Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-03-19 | Colts v. Steelers +1 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Most felt that Andrew Luck's sudden retirement (he stunned his teammates and the rest of the league by announcing his retirement near the end of training camp), pretty much meant a 'lost' 2019 season for the Indianapolis Colts. However, the Colts play their eighth game of a 16-game schedule with a 5-2 record. The Colts sit a half-game ahead on the Texans in the AFC South, with the Jags and Titans lurking at 4-4. The Colts are hoping to push their winning streak to four in a row when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh knows all about losing a starting QB, a Big Ben was lost for the season in Week 2. The Steelers opened 0-3 but have won THREE of four and with the 5-2 Ravens hosting the 8-0 Pats Sunday night, the Steelers could close within a half-game of 1st in the AFC Central with a win and a Baltimore loss. Forget Baltimore, a win puts Pittsburgh very much alive in the AFC wild card race at the midpoint of the season. Indianapolis is becoming accustomed to executing late with the game on the line. The Colts' three-game winning streak has come with victories over Kansas City, Houston and Denver (average MOV just 5.0 PPG). QB Jacoby Brissett is completing 64.5% for 1,590 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. Indy's OL is very good, paving the way to an average of 128.4 YPG on the ground (11th), led by Marlon Mack's 590 yards (4.3 YPC / 4 TDs). Pittsburgh is starting getting its offense settled behind QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 251 yards with two TDs and no INTs in Monday's win over the Dolphins. RB James Conner ran for 145 yards and a touchdown. However, he injured his shoulder late in the game and his status against the Colts is uncertain at best. The good news is that Jaylen Samuels returned to practice this week and is expected to play Sunday (he hasn't played since undergoing knee surgery on Oct 7). More notably, the Steelers continue to improve on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 3.8 YPC, thanks to Michigan rookie LB Devin Bush. The Colts are 5-2 but this team is no better than average both offensively (22.6 PPG ranks 16th and 345.9 YPG ranks 18th) and defensively (21.6 PPG allowed ranks 14th and 349.4 YPG allowed ranks 15th). Mike Tomlin believes the Steelers have already endured the worst of what 2019 has to offer and QB Rudolph showed Monday that he has the ability to be much more than just a caretaker (something Brisset can relate to). The Steelers own the third-best home record since 2001 (106-41-1) and the Colts haven't had a winning road record since 2004 (Colts entered 2019 with a 13-19 SU road mark). At this price, Pittsburgh is a STRONG play! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-03-19 | Vikings v. Chiefs +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET. The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back. Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th). KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1). Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 7-0., joining the AFC's New England Patriots (8-0) as one of just TWO unbeatens in NFL 2019. The 49ers were among the early surprises in the NFC but they have now emerged as one of the front-runners to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco permitted just 10 points in three straight wins (Weeks 5-7) and then BLASTED the visiting Carolina Panthers (who came in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run) in Week 8, 51-13 last Sunday, Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ got off to an 0-3-1 start in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7, before coming back to earth in a 31-9 drubbing at New Orleans this past Sunday. Thursday's matchup will offer an intriguing subplot, featuring a showdown between the top-two picks in this year's NFL Draft, No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray of Arizona and No. 2 pick Nick Bosa.(DE) of San Francisco. Bosa earned a spot in the history books last week by becoming the third rookie to record at least three sacks and an interception in one game since the sack became an official stat in 1982. San Francisco's defense ranks 1st in total D (224.4 YPG) and 2nd in points allowed (11.0 PPG). QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of kudos for record as a starter (15-2 / 13-2 with SF) but his numbers are pretty average in 2019 (217.0 YPG with 9 TDs and 7 INTs). His receiving corps is fairly average as well but the team's running game ranks second in the NFL with 181.1 YPG. Little-known RBs like Breida (446 yards / 5.3 YPC) and Mostert (309 yards / 5.7 YPC) have seen former Atlanta Falcon Tevin Coleman really start to make a difference. He ran for 105 yards (9.5 YPC) with three TDs plus had a TD catch last Sunday vs the Panthers. Coleman missed three games earlier but now has 332 yards on 4.7 YPC with five TDs. In stark contrast to San Francisco's running game, Arizona is dealing with some serious issues in its backfield due to injuries to its top RBs, David Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). Those injuries necessitated the acquisition of Kenyan Drake from Miami on Monday. "I think Kenyan can come in and do some things that can fit what we need right now,” Kingsbury said of Drake, who rushed for 535 yards and had a career-high 53 receptions last season with the Dolphins. Murray is averaging 248.5 yards passing, completing 63.% with seven TDs and 4 INTs, while also rushing for 279 yards (two TDs). Arizona is averaging only 21.2 PPG (20th), more than a TD less then San Francisco (29.6 PPG) plus the Cards' D has struggled, ranking 29th in both points allowed (27.9) and yards allowed (407.1). At first blush, the 49ers are CLEARLY a better team than the Cards. Yes, the Cards won three in a row before their loss to the Saints, but those wins cane over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 3-21). However, the Cards are surely a better team than the Redskins, who at home in Week 7, lost just 9-0 to these 49ers. Aloso looming over this game is the fact that the Cards have beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times, holding San Francisco to 18 points or less in the last FOUR meetings! I'm taking the "big points" with this division home dag! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. This Week 8 SNF game on NBC was expected to be a celebration of two of the NFL's storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that played in the first Super Bowl. The teams feature two transcendent QBs, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. However, Mahomes, the NFL's reigning MVP dislocating his kneecap in last week’s 30-6 win at Denver. He remarkably practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday but Matt Moore is expected to start in his place. The Packers are atop the NFC Central at 6-1, but the Vikings loom at 6-2. The 5-2 Chiefs have some 'breathing room' in the AFC West, as Oakland is 3-3, while Denver and San Diego lag at 2-5. Rodgers 'lit up' the Raiders last Sunday, passing for 429 yards and five TDs, plus added a rushing TD in a 42-24 win over Oakland in Green Bay. Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,109 yards with a 13-2 ratio, despite the fact that the team's best WR, Davante Adams (turf toe), has missed the last three games (all GB wins). He’s likely to sit out again on Sunday plus TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both battling ankle injuries (both are expected to play). Even Rodgers is not 100 percent, as he's playing with a tweaked knee. Rodgers has been effective despite the fact that the Packers have failed to crack 80 rushing yards in FOUR of their seven contests. Green Bay ranks 20th with 99.3 YPG on the ground. The Green Bay D allows 381.0 YPG (26th) but is somehow holding opponents to 19.9 PPG (9th). Kansas City possesses the No. 3 offense in the league in both points scored (28.9 PPG) and total yards (400.4 YPG). Like Green Bay, KC gets very little from its rushing game, which averages only 82.3 YPG (25th). Of course, without Mahomes (65.1%, averaging 323.1 YPG with a 15-1 ratio), some of the team's offensive prowess will be affected. However, expect KC to get more creative. RBs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have more talent than they shown in 2019 plus WR Tyreek Hill is back making 'waves,' while TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (541). Kansas City’s defense has been maligned but the Chiefs have forced turnovers in SIX of their seven contests, including four games with multiple takeaways. Green Bay has only been a road favorite FOUR times the last two seasons (1st time in 2019 in this contest), going 2-2 SU, with both wins coming in OT. I expect KC to 'circle the wagons' here on this Sunday night game behind Matt Moore. Note that KC has SEVEN players averaging between 13.4 and 17.7 YPC. Moore will be "good enough," here. Take the points but I don't expect we'll need them. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Panthers +6 v. 49ers | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 6-0. The 49ers will welcome the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco for this Week 8 contest, as one of two undefeated teams in the league. The Panthers entered 2019 off a 7-9 season and opened 0-2 but Carolina has rallied to win four straight (4-0 ATS). San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of hype (more in a bit) but what about Carolina's Kyle Allen? He took over for the injured Cam Newton and Allen is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first five starts without throwing an interception (his first start in that stretch came at the end of the 2018 season / 4-0 in 2019). Allen is hardly prolific but he's completing 65.6% for an average of 226.8 YPG with seven TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 106.0. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL with 618 rushing yards (4.9 YPC / 7 TDs) and 35 catches for 305 yards (2 TDs). He ranks second in the league in yards from scrimmage (923) and is tied for the NFL lead with nine TDs. Few think of Carolina as an offensive team but the Panthers rank 5th at 27.7 PPG. The team's defensive numbers are middle-of-the-road (22.2 PPG allowed ranks 15th and 344.0 YPG allowed ranks 12th) but Carolina has forced 15 turnovers, second to only New England's 22. Speaking of defenses, the 49ers' defense is in the midst of a truly dominant stretch. San Francisco is coming off a 9-0 win at Washington and the 49ers have held THREE straight opponents to seven points or less, plus to fewer than 200 total yards (note: SF is only the SIXTH team to do so since 1990!). The 49ers currently rank second in both points allowed (10.7 per) and yards allowed (223.5 per). QB Jimmy Garoppolo keeps getting credit for his record as a starting QB and he should. He was 2-0 in New England subbing for Tom Brady and has now opened 12-2 with San Francisco. However, he's got a modest 19-14 TD-to-INT ratio in his 14 games as the Niners' starting QB, including a 7-6 ratio in 2019, with San Francisco ranking 25th in passing yards (214.5 per) thi season. The San Francisco D and its unsung running game (ranks 2nd at 172.7 YPG with virtual unknowns) has been the real key to the team's success. Garoppolo is NOT a polished QB (see above numbers TY) and his receiving corps is below average. Meanwhile, the Panthers have taken off since Kyle Allen replaced a hobbled Cam Newton (note: Carolina was 0-8 in Newton’s last eight starts). He is efficient and the Panthers have rallied around him. Carolina is 11-5 as a road dog the last four-plus seasons (2-0 in 2019) and the Panthers have won SIX straight meetings with the 49ers, including a 23-3 victory in their last trip to San Francisco in 2017. It's also possible that the 49ers could be 'peeking ahead' to next Thursday's NFC West game at Arizona. Take the points but I seen an OUTRIGHT win by Carolina. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles 'limp' into Buffalo for a Week 8 game with a 3-4 record, after getting crushed 37-10 in Dallas last Sunday night. Welcoming the Eagles will be the Buffalo Bills, who at 5-1, are off to their best start since the 2008 season.This marks Philly's THIRD straight road game, as prior to the loss to Dallas, Philly lost 38-20 at Minnesota. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road in 2019, allowing 31.5 PPG. Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, as the Bills rank 3rd in both scoring (15.2 PPG) and overall D (292.7 YPG). The Bills returned from a Week 6 bye to win 31-21 at home vs the winless Dolphins in Week 7. Carson Wentz is completing 61.3% for 1,649 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs on the season but it's been reported that an anonymous teammate was critical of the QB's play. The criticism is probably fair, as Wentz has committed six turnovers in Philadelphia's three road losses. Wentz has NOT thrown the ball downfield, as the team's top-three pass-catchers, TE Ertz (35) plus WRs Jeffrey (26) and Agholor (25) are averaging only between 9.7 and 11.5 YPC. Philly's running game is just average (111.7 YPG ranks 14th) and its defense has underachieved (26.6 PPG ranks 27th). Buffalo QB Josh Allen has led his team to a 5-1 start but his numbers are VERY average. He's completing 62.4% for 1,324 yards with as many INTs as TDs (seven each). He's been helped by a running game that averages 135.8 YPG (7th), led by the ageless Frank Gore (388 yards on 4.5 YPC). However, Buffalo is 5-1 because of its defense. Then again, maybe Buffalo is 5-1 because of the competition it has played. Buffalo's lone loss was a a very competitive 16-10 defeat at the hands of unbeaten Pats but look at the team's FIVE wins. The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Those five teams owned a combined record of 6-27 (.182). Considering the competition, are the Bills really a quality team? My bet says N-O! Yes, the Eagles has struggled so far but I'm not about sell them short, just yet. Playing a THIRD straight game on the road is NEVER a positive but after playing at the Vikings and Cowboys, I believe playing at the Bills is a "step down in class." I checked a number of Week 1 NFL power ratings and if Philly had played at Buffalo in Week 1, the Eagles would have been a four to six-point favorite. Take ANY points available but expect the Eagles to win pretty comfortably. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-19 | Jets v. Jaguars OVER 40 | Top | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Oct Total of the Month is on NYJ/Jax Over at 1:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars were in Cincinnati last Sunday to take on the winless Bengals. The Jags had forced just ONE turnover in their first six games but got the Bengals to cough up the ball FOUR times, as they snapped a two-game slide with a 27-17 win. The 3-4 Jags return home this Sunday to face the 1-5 Jets, who are coming off an embarrassing 33-0 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday, a contest in which they turned the ball over SIX times. Seems like the perfect set-up for the Jags to even their record at 4-4. Sam Darnold made a "triumphant return" for the Jets against Dallas in Week 6, as he led New York to its first win of the season, 24-22. The second-year pro from USC completed 23 of 32 for 338 yards with two TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 113.8. However, his "15 minutes of fame" lasted all of one week, as he completed 11 of 32 for 86 yards with four INTs against the Pats, 'earning' him a QB rating of 3.6. He also lost a fumble plus failed to control a high snap that wound up as a safety for the Pats. To add insult to injury, sideline microphones caught him saying he was "seeing ghosts" after his third INT.. "I just gotta see the field a lot better," Darnold told reporters. "That's kinda what that means. It was a rough day out there, rough night out there, and obviously I gotta be better and learn from the mistakes. But we will get better." Can the Jets get any worse? One positive in the Jets' loss to the Patriots was RB Le'Veon Bell's season-high 70 yards on 15 carries, against a New England defense that ranks 1st in points allowed (6.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (223.1 YPG). "It's what Jaguar defense is all about," linebacker Myles Jack told reporters after the win at Cincy. "We create turnovers. We play physical. We've been playing good defense. We just haven't been able to get those turnovers that we needed. So, once we're able to create that, I feel like it puts our offense in easier situations, do their thing, and allow them to get into a rhythm. It's a great feeling, man. It's a great feeling to see that ball going the other way." Nick Foles, who suffered a broken clavicle in the first game of the season, finally returned to practice on a limited basis this week but he is not eligible to come off injured reserve until Week 9. That means the QB duties will remain with rookie Gardner Minshew, who has 10 TD passes and just TWO interceptions in six starts. He is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,697 yards. He's ably complemented by a rushing attack averaging 140.1YPG (5th) on 5.1 YPC. The ground game is led by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette, who has 715 yards on 5.0 YPC. I do NOT see the New York defense, which allows 26.0 PPG (23rd), reigning in Minshew and Fournette. However, I HAVE to believe Darnold is capable of a bounce-back. This over/under is tantalizingly low and just like my Sep Total of the Month (Jax/Den Over 37.5, which ended 26-24), I'm Goin' Over with the Jags in this one against the Jets. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET. There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later).. The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?). The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014. OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Does anyone want to win the NFC East? We know the 1-5 Redskins won't/can't and the 2-4 Giants are unlikely to. That leaves us with the 3-3 Eagles and Cowboys, who meet in Dallas tonight in the latest edition on Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Eagles fell to 3-3 following a 38-20 loss at Minnesota last week while the Cowboys own the same mark after dropping their third straight game with a 24-22 setback to the previously winless New York Jets. Carson Wentz has 10 TD passes against just one interception in five career starts vs the Cowboys, while Dak Prescott has five passing and one rushing TD en route to recording THREE straight wins against the Eagles. Wentz is completing 61.2% for 1,458 yards with 12 TDs and three INTs through six games. TE Ertz (33 catches) has been his top target, although WRs Alshon Jeffery (24 catches / 3 TDs) and (23 catches / 3 TDs) are both off to solid starts. The Philly running game is so-so (111.2 YPG ranks 14th) and the Eagles average 26.8 PPG (9th). The defense has been awful against the pass (280.2 YPG ranks 29th) but outstanding against the run (72.8 YPG ranks 2nd). Overall, the Eagles are allowing 24.8 PPG (23rd). Dak Prescott has cooled off after an excellent start but is still completing 69.7% for 1,884 with 11 TDs and six INTs (has 133 rushing yards and two TDs). RB Elliot has blown hot-and-cold (491 RY / 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and will have to go up against Philly's excellent rush D (see above). WRs Randall Cobb (back) and Amari Cooper (thigh) are both iffy. Cobb sat out against the Jets and Cooper didn't play after the first series.The Dallas D has performed well, allowing a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) on 331.8 YPG (9th). Dallas opened 3-0 while averaging 32.3 PPG but the wins came over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins (teams are a combined, 3-14). It's more than fair to be skeptical of Dallas but is Philly any better? TWO of the Eagles' three wins have come at home vs the 1-5 Redskins and 1-5 Jets (playing without Darnold, while their third loss was at Atlanta, in what has been the Falcons' LONE win of 2019. "We're going down to Dallas, and our guys are gonna be ready to play. And we're gonna win that football game, and when we do, we're in first place in the NFC East," Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson said on 94.1 WIP. "We control our own destiny. We're right where we need to be."I sure DON'T share Pederson's confidence. Injuries have hampered both the Eagles and Cowboys but my bet says the Cowboys WON'T lose FOUR in a row, especially against a hated division rival who they've won and covered against in three straight. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -125 | 46 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET. The Chicago Bears opened the current season by losing 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 12 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2 by kicking a 53-yard FG as time expired. Mitchell Trubisky had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions the first two games but passed for 231 yards with three TD passes in Chicago's 31-15 Week 3 win at Washington in a MNF game. Trubisky went down in the opening minutes of Chicago's Week 4 game against the Vikings. Chase Daniel threw for 195 yards and a touchdown after Trubisky exited with a left shoulder injury, leading Chicago to a 16-6 victory. Daniel started Chicago's Week 5 loss (24-21) in London to Raiders but Trubisky is expected to start in this Week 7 contest against the Saints. The Saints know all about losing their starting QB. New Orleans has been without Drew Brees since he suffered a thumb injury in Week 2. However, Teddy Bridgewater has guided the team to FOUR consecutive victories. Bridgewater first led the Saints to a win at Seattle, followed with home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay and then last week won at Jacksonville. Bridgewater threw for 314 yards and matched a career high with four TD passes in a Week 5 win over the Bucs but he struggled against Jacksonville last week. He is averaging a modest 217.8 YPG passing and may be asked to do more with RB Alvin Kamara (373 rushing yards / 276 receiving yards) and TE Jared Cook (15 catches / 2 TDs) both missing this game with injuries. New Orleans' offense is averaging a middle-of-the-road 21.3 PPG (18th) but its defense has stood tall, allowing just 40 points over its last three games (20.3 PPG on the season ranks 11th). Chicago knows a little bit about defense. The Bears allowed an NFL-low 17.7 PPG, helping them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing 13.8 PPG (3rd) on 312.2 YPG (6th). However, the Bears NEED to score more, as they come in averaging just 17.4 PPG (26th) on 266.0 YPG (30th). I expect Trubisky to start but I'm fine with Daniel. Chicago has had two weeks to stew about its upset loss to the Oakland Raiders in London, one that snapped the team's three-game winning streak. No way the Saints could have expected to go 4-0 SU & ATS without Brees and this venue is NOT a good one for New Orleans, as it's an off-surface (grass) . The Bears are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games and I believe it's a great spot for Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Rams -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET. The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points. The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters. Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st). Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!). Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 43.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Cin Over at 1:00 ET. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked very ordinary during the Jaguars' 13-6 loss to New Orleans last Sunday, as Jacksonville was held to a season-low 226 yards and just a pair of FGs. Minshew entered last Sunday's contest completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 255.8 YPG with nine TDs and just one INT. However, he went just 14 of 29 for only 163 yards without a TD pass and had one interception. The good news for Minshew is, the last three QBs who faced the Bengals had career days (see below). RB Leonard Fournette is healthy in 2019 (584 YR / 5.1 YPC and 26 catches for 189 yards) and he registered 118 yards from scrimmage last week to join Cleveland's Nick Chubb as the only players in the NFL with at least 85 in each of their first six games this season. Jacksonville's defense is allowing 21.8 PPG (13th) on 372.7 YPG (23rd). Brandon Wilson got the Bengals off to a good start last Sunday, returning the opening kickoff 92 yards for a TD, but the team was unable to find the end zone again until late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of each of their last three games. QB Andy Dalton is completing 61.7% for 1,647 yards with seven TDs and five INTs plus gets NO help from a running game averaging an NFL-low 56.5 YPG. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 286.5 PPG (26th) on 426.0 YPG (31st). The Bengals won't go 0-16, right? However, I'm not sure this is a the game they'll get a "W." Expect a bounce-back game from Minshew, against a very porous Cincy defense. After all, Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards (236) and rush for 150 (152) in a single game last week against the Bengals. The prior week, Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards without an interception and in Cincy's Week 4 MNF game against the Steelers, Mason Rudolph threw for a career high 229 yards with two TDs. Also, RB Fournette gets to run against a Cincy rush D that ranks 32nd by allowing 184.5 YPG on 5.3 YPC (also ranks last in the NFL). The Jags will score against this D and look for Cincy's Dalton to "air it out." He has a non-existent running game, so what's Plan B? This game goes OVER this modest number easily. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 61 h 40 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee. Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th). The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives." Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Cowboys v. Jets OVER 44 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 103 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Dal/NJY Over at 4:25 ET. The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week." QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.” The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th). However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The Dallas D has been good this season but I'm expecting the Jets to be able to move the ball and score. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I do believe this is a GREAT spot to play this contest OVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd). Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2). Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1. Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Eagles v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards. Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th). Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks. My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick). Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times! Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game. I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My AFC 10* Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Buffalo Bills opened the season 3-0, before suffering their first loss last Sunday at home, 16-10 to the Pats. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw three interceptions against New England last week, as the Bills offense did very little. However, the Buffalo D held the defending-champion Patriots to just 224 yards. Brday had just 150 yards passing, was held without a TD pass despite 39 attempts and was interecpeted once (QB rating of 45.9!). Buffalo held the Pats to juts 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC) and will visit Nashville allowing 15.8 PPG (5th) on 280.8 YPG (2nd). Allen got knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit when he failed to slide on a running play and has spent the week in concussion protocol.He had completed 64.1 percent of his passes during the 3-0 start before going 13-of-28 against the Pats. The ageless Frank Gore (he needs 249 rushing yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the all-time list) ran for 109 yards and the Bills are averaging 147.2 YPG on the ground (4th). The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons and shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1. However, the Titans have been searching for consistency for far too long. They lost 19-17 at home to Indy in Week 2 and in Week 3 lost 20-7 at Jacksonville, before winning 24-10 last Sunday in Atlanta. QB Marcus Mariota has been no paragon of consistency but he's completing 62.2% with seven TDs and not a single interception in 119 attempts (106.2 QB rating). Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. The Tennessee D defense returned nine of 11 starters from 2018 and is currently allowing 15.5 PPG (4th) on 337.0 YPG (12th). The Bills are waiting to see if Josh Allen will be cleared from the concussion protocol and he's listed as questionable. Backup Matt Barkley will start if Allen can't go and would make his first start since last season. He threw for 127 yards coming off the bench in last week's 16-10 loss. Whether it's Allen or Barkley, I'm backing the Titans. I'm still not sold on the Bills and believe that he Titans are a no-frills solid team without any major weaknesses, especially with Marcus Mariota stepping up his play (Mariota is the only quarterback to start every game this season without giving the ball away). The Titans didn’t permit a sack against the Falcons last Sunday (after allowing a league-high 17 sacks through the first three weeks). Now the Titans get back All-Pro offensive left tackle Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. The Titans are sure to recall losing on a last-second 46-yard FG at Buffalo a year ago in Week 5, a defeat that loomed large, as the Titans lost a playoff berth in their regular-season finale. All teams in the AFC South are 2-2 and the Titans believe that with three of their next four games at home, it's a great opportunity to put together a winning streak. That streak starts right here, with Tennessee's first back-to-back wins of 2019. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans -4 | Top | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in all four games in 2019 but the Falcons are just 1-3, after losing 24-10 at home last Sunday to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan threw for a season-high 397 yards in in Week 4 but did not throw a TD pass. All season, Atlanta's has lacked any offensive balance, as the running game is averaging just 70.2 YPG on 4.0 YPC, to rank 37th in the league. The defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (32.8 per) but 22nd in points (24.8 PPG). At the moment, Atlanta looks like the worst team in the NFC South and head coach Dan Quinn's seat warms up a little bit more with each loss. The Texans are one of FOUR teams in the AFC South to enter Week at 2-2. Houston is coming off a lackluster 16-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers and needs QB Deshaun Watson to "step it up." He passed for only 160 yards vs the Panthers. Watson (65.1%, 938 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of 99.9) is capable of so much more, especially with a WR like Hopkins (24 catches) and a running game that's been better than average (120.2 YPG on 5.1 YPC), even after losing Lamar Smith. The defense is allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) and the Texans have forced a turnover in 17 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. and one that ranks second in franchise history. Houston is tied for second in league with eight forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries. Houston really needs this win at home, as FOUR of the team's next five games will be on the road. The good news is that the Falcons set up as the perfect foil. The Falcons are beginning a stretch in which four of their next six games are on the road plus this marks their THIRD straight contest against an AFC South team. The Falcons have lost the first two (at Indy in Week 4 and home to Tennessee in Week 4), falling to 1-12 SU their last 13 vs AFC South opponents. The ATS "clincher" is Atlanta going 4-14 ATS on the road since the start of the 29017 season, a 78% "go-against." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week (5) is on Chi/Oak Over at 1:00 ET. Khalil Mack will have a few incentives when he takes the field for The Chicago Bears hosted their bitter rival (the Green Bay Packers) to open NFL 2019 on a Thursday night (Sep 5) and lost 10-3. Chicago then won its Week 2 game in Denver, 16-14 by making a 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. Heading into the team's MNF Week 3 game at Washington, QB Mitchell Trubisky, the team's "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft," had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions. The Bears beat the sad-sack Redskins 31-15 in that MNF game and then their defense dominated in a 16-6 home win in Week 4 over the Vikings. Now it's off to London for 3-1 Chicago for a meeting with the 2-2 Oakland Raiders.Oakland is hoping to build off a 31-24 triumph at Indianapolis last Sunday. The Raiders ran 188 yards on the ground in the win, with rookie Josh Jacobs gaining 79 on 17 carries, as they avoided a third straight loss while playing the second of five consecutive contests away from Oakland. The Raiders will be playing in London for the second straight season and internationally for the FIFTH time in six years. Trubisky suffered a left shoulder injury during Chicago's first possession last week and is expected to miss this game. It's hard to say he'll be missed all that much. Chase Daniel will be under center after completing 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown vs the Vikings in relief. Daniel is a 10-year vet and will make his third start in two seasons with Chicago. He went a combined 53 of 76 (69.7%) for 515 yards with three TDs and two INTs in two starts last season (a win at Detroit and loss at the NY Giants). The Bears bring one of the NFL's best defenses to London, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 290.8 YPG (5th). Oakland's Derek Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes and has been greatly helped by Jacobs, a rookie RB from Alabama. Jacobs has 307 rushing yards this season (5.0 YPC), eclipsing the team record for most by a player in his first four career games. TE Darren Waller grabbed a share of an NFL record last week a swell, increasing his reception total to 33, tying Antonio Gates (2007) for most by a tight end in his team's first four contests of a season. Oakland's defense is another story, as the Raiders rank 25th in allowing 25.5 PPG on 390.2 YPG (alos 25th). Oakland's 31-24 win at Indy last week makes them just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS on the road since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. The 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Again, this is a neutral site game but it's also a 10:00 a.m. Pacific time start, games in which the Raiders have struggled. I expect the Bears to have little trouble scoring here plus I also think the Raiders' offense is jelling. With this tantalizingly low over/under number, the play is O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points! Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018? Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019. Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET. As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game? Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. . Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs"). Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG). With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th). It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos OVER 38.5 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 117 h 13 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Den Over at 4:25 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb? Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times. Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests. It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday. Yes, I like Denver but what I like even more is the Over. I really like what I see with Minshew and as noted, Denver's D seems to still be a "work in progress." Conditions will be near-perfect in Denver and this is one of just TWO totals under 40. Getting back to Denver's great home record in September, let me add that in those 13 straight Sep home wins (before the team's Week 2 loss in 2019), the Broncos had averaged 29.2 PPG. I'm "all in" on the Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET. The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota. Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit). Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests. The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all. The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games. However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL). Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET. The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!). Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit? Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Saints v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on NO/Sea Over at 4:25 ET. The New Orleans Saints survived Week 1 when they won 30-28 on a 58-yard FG as time expired at home against the Houston Texans. The Saints then traveled to LA in Week 2, for their big "revenge" game with the Rams. The Saints lost at home to the Rams in last year's NFC championship game, a contest made infamous when a blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime. The Saints lost 27-9 to the Rams last Sunday and adding insult to injury, future Hall-of-Fame QB Drew Brees was KO'd with a thumb injury. He's since undergone surgery and will be out for an extended period of time. The Saints are in Seattle on Sunday against the Seahawks, who have opened 2-0 for the first time since the 2013 season Teddy Bridgewater has made 29 NFL starts but Saints head coach Sean Payton has declined to reveal who will start the game, Bridgewater or second-year pro Taysom Hill. He insists both QBs will see action. "We'll have the right plan relative to what those guys are doing," Payton told reporters. "Look, these guys have been here now two seasons. It's just kind of taking a step back and looking at the things we want to do with those guys in the game and putting that plan in place this week in practice." Bridgewater completed 17-of-30 passes for 165 yards after replacing Brees in last week's loss to Rams and is looking to re-establish himself after a horrific knee injury just prior to the 2016 season cost him his starting job with Minnesota. " Seattle's Russell Wilson is off to an excellent start, completing 78.2% with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 134.5. However, the offensive line has allowed him to be sacked eight times in two games and the running game, which led the NFL with 160.0 YPG in 2018, is averaging just 111.5 YPG (14th) on 3e.9 YPC. Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past. Cincy's Andy Dalton ripped them for 418 passing yards (35 of 51 with two TDs and zero INTs), as the Seahawks were lucky to win, 21-20. Even with Big Ben missing half the game last Sunday at Pittsburgh, the Steelers scored 26 points. All that said, Seattle is 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame.New Orleans' defense had no answer for Houston's DeShaun Watson in Week 1 (268 yards passing with three TDs and 40 yards rushing and a fourth TD), so expect Russell Wilson (a veteran version of Watson) to have a big day. However, I believe Bridgewater is one of the better backup QBs in the league and as noted above, Seattle's defense is a mere shell of its former self. Bridgewater has had a full week of practice and Sean Payton also has offensive packages for Taysom Hill. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory. Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks. Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing. The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!). Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road. Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out. Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory. RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs. I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Jaguars v. Texans OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Hou Over at 1:00 ET. The Houston Texans led the Saints 14-3 at the half on Monday night but found themselves down 27-21 with 50 seconds left in the game, after a New Orleans FG. However, they then went 75 yards in two plays to take the lead with 37 seconds left, only to lose on a 58-yard FG with 0:00 remaining on the clock. Houston doesn't want to hear anything about "moral" victories. The Jags opened their 2019 season, after an 0-4 preseason, at home against the high-powered KC Chiefs and their dynamic QB, Pat Mahomes. The Jacksonville D never came close to containing KC, as the Chiefs scored 40 points on 491 yards in the 14-point win. Mahomes passed for 378 yards with three TDs, all to WR Sammy Watkins (9 for 198). Nick Foles, who signed a four-year, $88 million contract in March, broke his left clavicle in the first quarter and had surgery Monday (he is out until at least Week 11).However, rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and impressed in his NFL debut. The Jags visit their AFC rivals Sunday in Houston and in speaking about Minshew, head coach Doug Marrone told reporters, “He’s one of the few guys I’ve been around who can go from the classroom and really take it right onto the field. The other day was an unbelievable indication of that. I don’t know how many people – especially rookies – can go out not having done anything during the week and play like that.” Minshew completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs (both in the 4th quarter) and an interception in the 40-26 loss. The Watson (268 yards and three TDs) to Watkins connection was in mid-season form plus with Lamar Smith out for the season, the newly constructed backfield tandem also got the job done last week. Carlos Hyde rushed for 83 yards just nine days after being acquired from Kansas City and Duke Johnson recorded 90 yards from scrimmage in his debut for the Texans. However, the defense surrendered 510 total yards to the Saints and had a hard time getting pressure in the backfield, recording just one sack and no tackles for loss. Both defense got 'lit up' last week and what changes, here? The Texans won the AFC South last season at 11-5 and with Luck retired, are favored to win it again in 2019. An 0-2 start would be a 'killer.' That said, Houston's defense is a real question mark. Minshew is bouyed by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette ( but YPC) and the receiving corps showed off its newfound depth against the Chiefs. SIX players caught four or more passes for the Jags last Sunday, with Conley catching six (97 yards and one TD) and Chalk (four catches for 146 yards, that 36.5 per and a score). This one should be 'OVER' by the time the game reaches the fourth quarter! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown. It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win. Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts! You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win. The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Bengals v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Cin/Sea Over at 4:05 ET. Zac Taylor, the newest member of the NFL's under-40 coaching fraternity,has replaced Marvin Lewis (16 seasons) as head coach at Cincinnati. The 36-year-old takes his Bengals to Seattle for a Week 1 contest with the Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks feature the new highest-paid player in the NFL in QB Russell Wilson, the highest-paid inside linebacker in the league in All-Pro Bobby Wagner plus just added a prime asset to their defense with the recent acquisition of pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Lewis led the Benglas to seven postseasons, including FIVE straight from 2011-15, but NEVER won a single playoff game. After three straight losing seasons from 2016-18, Lewis was finally let go. Pete Carroll begins his 10th season as Seattle's head coach and he's taken the Seahawks to SEVEN postseason in nine years, including back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. Seattle won it all in 2013 and then in 2014, Carroll made one of the most infamous of all Super Bowl play-calls, as the Seahawks fell to the Pats. That said, while the Bengals are hardly considered playoff material in 2019, the Seahawks are expected to be a contender in the NFC. QB Andy Dalton has seven 3,000-yard seasons in his career but is facing criticism at age 31 on whether he is the long-term solution under the new coaching regime. However, Taylor has publicly praised him and the fact remains that Cincy has skill position talent even without injured wide-out A.J. Green.It should be noted that Bengals opened lat season 5-3, before an injury-decimated team finished by losing SEVEN of its last eight games. Russell Wilson is primed for a big year, as in 2018, he joined Peyton Manning as the only QBs in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in each of their first SEVEN seasons. What's more, the Seahawks had the top rushing offense in the NFL in 2018, averaging 160.0 YPG. Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs) and Marshawn has been long forgotten. On the other side of the ball, Clowney's addition late in training camp displayed the urgency Seattle felt at improving a defense that has slipped in recent seasons and allowed 353.3 YPG last season, ranking 16th of 32 teams (quite a drop-off from "The Legion of Boom" days). Seattle is 14-0 in home games in September over the last nine seasons and averaged 28.5 PPG at home in 2018. However, as noted above, the team's D is not what it used to be. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of seven or more points during the last two seasons and I believe the Bengals just may give Seattle some trouble here.I fully expect Wilson (and his new and improved running game) to match or exceed its home scoring average from last year but I also expect Dalton and Co. to move the ball as well. O-V-E-R is the way to go! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn. In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons. Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 56 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -103 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on the over (6:30 EST). Two teams which revolve around their offensive units collide in the Super Bowl this year. Each team’s defense was decent this season, but clearly each side will be expecting the offense to carry the load and win the day in the end. So with that in mind, I’m definitely expecting a more wide-open affair in Atlanta this Sunday. Tom Brady may never get another shot at winning a record breaking sixth Super Bowl, so it’s essentially now or never for the living legend. The Rams played very little defense this year, but instead relied on their dynamic offense as well, centred around QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley. Brady has less weapons surrounding him perhaps than ever before, but it still didn’t stop him from beating the Chiefs 37-31 on the road last Sunday (and for a second time this season.) Pats’ RB Sony Michel was a bright spot as well in the victory with 113 yards on 29 carries. In fact five different Patriots caught at least four passes, with Julian Edelman leading the way with seven receptions for 80 yards. The Rams could obviously care less about Brady’s legacy. They didn’t care too much about veteran Drew Brees’ legacy last weekend after their controversial 26-23 OT win over the Saints. LA had been torched for 45 points by the Saints in the first meeting between the teams (a Rams loss), and while the defense looked better last week, I still think they’ll have their hands full with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. Are ATS stats relevant at this point of the season and in this situation? Perhaps not, but I still think it’s interesting to note that NE has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last eight playoff games, while St. Louis has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six when playing with two or more weeks of rest. As stated off the top, I’m expecting a wide open affair. Play the over. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Championship Game Sunday O/U Play is on NE/KC Under at 6:40 ET. A storm front is moving through Kansas City and it’s been reported that this could be the coldest game in Chiefs history. Since the news of the storm, this total has been steadily dropping. Regardless, for a number of different reasons I think the correct call will be on the “under” when it comes to the total, as I look for each to try and establish the run from start to finish while on offense. The Chiefs’ much maligned defense looked fantastic in last week’s 31-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs front-seven limited the Colt to just 87 yards rushing and the Colts to only 263 total yards. The red-hot Andrew Luck had only 203 yards passing and Indy's lone offensive TD came with 5 1/2-minutes left in the game. KC's low-ranked pass defense (31st of 32 teams) has also displayed noticeable growth in the last two games, thanks to the fast-maturing duo of DB duo of Chavarius Ward (acquired in a preseason trade with the Cowboys) and rookie Jordan Lucas (picked up from Miami Dolphins). QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a TD pass for only the second time this season (he had 50 during the regular season) but Kansas City held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in the win over the Colts, as RB Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards and a score on 25 carries (who needs Hunt?). New England is in its 8th straight AFC Title game following its dominating 41-28 home victory over the L.A. Chargers in the Divisional Round. Patriots scored TDs on their first 4 possessions with Tom Brady in top form. The Pats beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home in a Week 6 SNF contest but I believe the last thing that Brady and Bill Belichick will want to do in this one is turn it into a “shootout.” The overall conditions of this one point to more of a “chess match.” The New England attack wasn’t so special away from home this year, with the Pats going just 3-5 SU, averaging only 3.9 YPC on the ground, while scoring just four rushing TDs. Three of the team's five road losses came by double digits This "Under" play is about more than just the weather. I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 24 on the road, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 19 of its last 27 as a home favorite. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -125 | 104 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the NO Saints at 3:05 ET. The Rams opened the 2018 season 8-0, finishing at 13-3 but after a 3-0 ATS start to the season, would go just 2-8-1 ATS before season-ending wins and covers over the hapless Cardinals and 49ers. The Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games (as 10-point favorites) against the Bucs and Browns. New Orleans lost outright to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and almost started 0-2, before eking out a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. However, that Week 2 win was the start of a 10-game winning streak in which the Saints covered NINE in a row. A 13-10 loss at Dallas ended the streak in Week 13. The Saints then won three in a row, before sitting out their regulars in a Week 17 loss, to finish 13-3 (like the Rams). However, The Saints' 45-35 win over the Rams in Week 9 not only ended LA's eight-game winning streak to open the season but it earned the Saints the all-important tiebreaker, which in the end became the determining factor for allowing the Saints to host the Rams in this NFC championship game. The Rams advanced to this game by rushing for 273 yards against Cowboys in a 30-22 win. Todd Gurley II, apparently beyond nagging injuries that limited his contributions (and kept him sidelined) in December, had 115 rushing yards and C.J. Anderson, a 1000-yard rusher in Denver last year, had 123. The team's ball-control offense gave cover to QB Goff, who threw for just 186 yards and zero TDs. I don't see the Rams being able to like that against the Saints (New Orleans ranks second in YPG allowed rushing at 80.2 per and held the Rams to 92 yards rushing in Week 9), so Goff will need to out-play Brees (not likely). Goff may have thrown 32 TD passes this season but he has only five TDPs in the last five games (including the postseason), with FOUR of them coming against the out-manned 49ers in the regular-season finale. The Saints were rusty (regulars didn't play in Week 17) last week vs Philly and fell behind 14-0. However, Brees led te team back and the New Orleans D completely shut down Nick Foles and the Philly offense after teh first quarter. Philly gained 151 yards on their two first-quarter TD drives but were held to 99 yards the rest of the game! Remember when the Saints couldn't play defense? No more! Brees started slowly but wound up with 3-0101 yards and two TDs (one INT). New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4) and WR Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards with one TD (note: he also had 12 catches in that Week 9 win over LA, setting a franchise-record 211 yards). As for teh running game, New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4 YPC). The home-field edge MATTERS this time of year, as in each of the last five seasons, the team with home field advantage in both the NFC and AFC championship games advanced to the Super Bowl. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with SIX coming under the watch of Brees and Payton. Enough said. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 1:05 ET. I had a play on the Chargers last week, part of my perfect 4-0 Wildcard Weekend. In my analysis, I explained how I felt that the home field advantage in the Wildcard Round was much less important than in the Divisional Round. Philip Rivers and the Bolts would then go on to unequivocally prove that that was in fact true. No one could benefit more from a week off from action than Patriots’ QB Tom Brady, who once again led his team to a division title. Brady and the Pats continue to defy the odds and their story is well known. Some would argue that the greatest QB to never win a SB is Dan Marino, but I submit that Rivers is at least in the discussion. LA has the running game to keep opposing offenses honest this year with Gordon (885 yards / 5.1 YPC) and Ekeler (554 yards 5.2 YPC). It’s allowed Rivers to operate and once again put up huge numbers (4,308 yards / 32-12 ratio). This is also a “double revenge” scenario for Rivers, as Brady has gotten the better of him twice in the playoffs, 2007 in the divisional round and the conference title game in New England the following year (note: Chargers covered both games!). Brady and the Patriots place in history is forever cemented, but there was something about this year’s Patriots which just didn’t “feel” the same as in season’s past (New England also benefitted from a very weak division). Brady had a 29-11 ratio but teh previous four seasons it was 32.23-6.5. Deep threat Josh Gordon was a bust and "Gronk" is no longer a major 'weapon.' The Chargers 9-0 in games played outside of Los Angeles in 2018, a run that includes wins in Kansas City,Seattle and Pittsburgh. The LA defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last three weeks (with eight takeaways in that span) and an AFC-low 16.9 PPG since the start of October. Meanwhile, the Pats look vulnerable following a 4-3 stretch (3-4 ATS) to wrap up the regular season Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs Brady but this is his BEST-EVER (last-ever?) chance to exorcise his demons. The storyline finally shifts in favor of the Chargers and Rivers in this one. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 108 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Divisional Rd Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET. LA was one of the hottest teams all year, but injury and fatigue seemed to wear on the Rams down the stretch. Dallas was in danger of missing the playoffs at one point, but QB Dak Prescott (3,885 yards / 22-8 ratio) benefited from the resurgent play of star RB Ezekiel Elliot, who finished with 1,434 yards rushing. The Cowboys enter the Divisional Round as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, at 8-1 SU (lone loss to equally hot Indy!).. I’ve never been completely convinced of LA and its QB, Jared Goff. The offense is great, there’s no denying (32.9 PPG and 421.1 YPG both rank 2nd). However, if there is any issue at all with RB Todd Gurley’s mobility because of an end of season injury, then that’s a major “monkey wrench” in the entire chemistry in my opinion. The Rams struggled defensively (24.0 PPG ranks 20th) and even with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald on the DL, Los Angeles ranked last in the league in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Elliott gained nearly the same per carry on first downs alone, so it figures that Dallas will want to play some smash-mouth football, which will be huge for Prescott, as the Cowboys love play-action. Jerry Jones’ shrewd mid-season addition of big-play WR Amari Cooper now gives Prescott a viable vertical option to stretch the field as well (Coopoer has 53 catches in nine games with 6 TD catches). Dallas is not just any defense. The Cowboys allow a modest 20.2 PPG (6th) on 329.7 YPG (7th). Dallas also allows only 94.6 YPG rushing (5th), on just 3.8 YPG. The Rams will have trouble running, putting even more pressure on Goff (he did not play well in his first postseason game last year, against the Falcons). LA’s offense is very similar to that of New Orleans and Dallas beat the Saints 13-10 in Week 13, thanks in part to its strong run game. The Cowboys have the potential to take this one outright but a TD (or more) "in the bank" is a nice bonus. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (1:05 EST). The Chargers will need three road wins now to reach the Super Bowl. Likely not going to happen. Home field is obviously an advantage in the playoffs, but less so in the first round. The teams which earn a bye have a clear advantage as they have extra time off to heal up and game-plan for the upcoming contest. But the Wildcard games, there are no breaks, and it’s just business as usual right after the regular season ends. So, I do indeed feel that this scenario is working in favor of the Chargers in this one. Especially with a rookie QB under center for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic for Baltimore since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but in a playoff “one and one” situation like this, I’m giving Chargers’ veteran pivot Philip Rivers the clear nod in this matchup. The Ravens have to be thrilled just to back in the playoffs after a three year absence. Baltimore barely held on for a 26-24 win over Cleveland in Week 17 to punch its ticket. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE “revenge” game as well, as Baltimore knocked off LA on the road 22-10 in Week 16, a setback which ruined the Chargers chances of top spot in the AFC West. The Chargers bounced back with a win over the Broncos the following week and while RB Melvin Gordon is questionable, I still think the value lies with Rivers. He finished with 4,308 passing yards and 32 TDs. In the loss to the Ravens, the Chargers effectively shut-down Jackson, holding him to a season low 39 rushing yards. I think LA has more than enough firepower to take this game outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points. Play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 42 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 132 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Playoff Total Of The Year is on the over Hawks/Cowboys (8:15 EST). Two hungry and talented teams collide on Saturday night and I think that points will be plentiful. Seattle closed its regular season with a 27-24 win over Arizona at home on Sunday, while the Cowboys rallied for a 36-35 win on the road over New York. Seattle beat the Cowboys in a lower-scoring 24-13 victory at home back on September 23rd, but I think it’ll be the offenses which dominate the headlines in tomorrow’s summaries this time around. Seattle enters the postseason on top form, having won six of its last seven. Overall the Hawks saw the Over/Under go 9-7 this year. Seattle averages 26.8 PPG and it allows 21.7. QB Russell Wilson has 3,448 passing yards and a sharp 35/7 TD/INT. RB Chris Carson has 1,151 rushing yards and nine scores. The Hawks are the No. 1 rushing offense, which gives Wilson a lot to work with obviously. Dallas averages 21.2 PPG and it allows 20.3. After a slow start, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot and the rest of the offense have looked a lot better over the last onto. Prescott had 3,885 passing yards and a 22/8 TD/INT, while Elliot has 1,434 rushing yards and six TDs. I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 following a home victory, while Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five home games when the total is set between 40.5 and 45 points. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-30-18 | Browns +6 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 105 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (4:25 EST). Baker Mayfield and the 7-7-1 Cleveland Browns are on a mission to close the season strong whether they make the playoffs or not. Cleveland already beat the Ravens in OT earlier this year. Baltimore has everything to play for here, but Mayfield and company are out to play spoiler. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab this healthy amount of points. The Browns come in as arguably the hottest team in the league with victories in five of their last six. Mayfield has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,394 yards and a now decent 24/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been respectable, averaging 122.9 YPG, with Nick Chubb leading the way with 972 rushing yards and eight major rushing scores. Overall the Browns allow 24.4 PG and they’re led by Myles Garrett on that side of the ball with 12.5 sacks. The Ravens have won five of six and if they win today they’ll clinch a playoff spot. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson has completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT. Overall Baltimore gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball where it concedes only 17.5 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Browns are a sharp 8-4 ATS as the underdog this year, while Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS as the favorite and only 3-4 ATS at home. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Browns. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-30-18 | Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-9 | Win | 100 | 104 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST). No upsets here. I expect Philip Rivers and the 11-4 Chargers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish here as they look to finish up strong. LA had its four-game win streak snapped in a 22-10 loss to the Ravens last week. Rivers has been exceptional this season, going for 4,132 yards and 31/10 TD/INT. RB Melvin Gordon III had 843 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Overall the Bolts are averaging a whopping 27 PPG. The Broncos have nothing to play for here and they come in dejected after three straight losses. Most recently they fell 24-17 to lowly Oakland. QB Case Keenum has 3,598 passing yards, but a weak 17/14 TD/INT. Offense has been the main issue all year for Denver, which comes in averaging only 21.3 PPG. I’ll point out as well that LA is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 8-2 in its last ten vs. the division, while Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine divisional contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Game Of The Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST). Seattle desperately needs a win here to stay in the playoff hunt. At 8-4, the Hawks need to win this game to keep pace for the Wild card. But a date at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to accomplish that as they’ve won three straight in the Pacific Northwest. This is a big game for the Chiefs as well as they’re still trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC. These teams are in fact very similar, led by a dynamic, play-making QB and strong running games on offense. The Hawks however are much better defensively and I think this is going to play a major factor in the outcome of this one. The Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has 4,543 yards and a huge 45/11 TD/INT. The ground game averages 114.4 YPG. Defensively though Kansas City is allowing 27.1 PPG. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 3,025 passing yards and a 31/6 TD/INT. The ground game averages a whopping 154.9 YPG and the defense concedes just 20.9 PPG. Note as well that the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Seattle is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records. The Hawks come in off a horrible OT loss to the 49ers and they’ll be eager to take out their frustrations in this “do or die” situation. The Chiefs are running out of gas and I believe their shoddy defensive play will finally expose them here in this difficult non-conference road venue. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-23-18 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Bengals/Browns (1:00 EST). The 6-8 Cincinnati Bengals head to Cleveland to take on the 6-7-1 Browns on Sunday and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Bengals won their last game, but they’ve lost four of their last five on the road. Starting QB Andy Dalton is out and backup Jeff Driskel is in. So far he has 775 yards passing a 4/2 TD/INT. The ground game has been a weak point on offense as well, averaging 103.9 YPG. But the weakest weak point for the Bengals has been on the defensive side, allowing 29.5 PPG. The unit catches a break though facing Cleveland’s inconsistent offense. The Browns have won four of their last five and still have a slim playoff chance. QB Baker Mayfield has 3,065 yards passing and a weak 21/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 121.1 YPG. The defense has been hit or miss, allowing 24.9 PPG. Myles Garrett has been a standout with 12.5 sacks. I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 22 at home. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control is paramount in the victory. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-22-18 | Ravens +5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Seeding Decider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST). Baltimore is 8-6 and desperate for a victory. Baltimore has won four of its last five games. The Ravens got the better of Tampa Bay last week and got 131 yards and a TD from rookie QB Lamar Jackson (he also rushed for 95 yards). The Chargers are 11-3, but after four straight victories, a letdown at some point does seem imminent. Most recently Philip Rivers had 313 yards and two TDs in a win over the Chiefs. LA though has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory. Baltimore on the other hand is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. The Chargers last three victories could have gone either way and I think LA’s “luck” runs out this week. That said, grab the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST). Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking. The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage. Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points. Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-16-18 | Eagles v. Rams -9 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST). Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs. LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend. Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend. LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well. Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less. This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry | |||||||
12-16-18 | Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 44 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 141 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Total Of The Year is on the over Cards/Falcons (1:00 EST). Two proud teams collide with nothing but pride to play for. Neither side can be happy with the way its season has unfolded to this point, but with the pressure off and with both trying to gain something positive to build off to end the season, I’m expecting more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” Arizona has lost six of eight. QB Josh Rosen has 1,910 passing yards and a 10/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been the weak point to this point, averaging only 85 YPG. The defense though has also been a shell of its former self and the Falcons’ high-flying and under-achieving offense will definitely have its opportunities in facing a Cards’ unit which is allowing 25.2 PPG. The Falcons have lost five straight and they’ll be given the green light today to open up the playbook. QB Matt Ryan has been a bright spot, going for 4,076 yards along with a 28/6 TD/INT. Ryan now has two or more TD passes in five of his last eight games. I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 21 on the road and in nine of its last 14 as a road underdog, while Atlanta has seen the total go over in 15 of its last 21 as a home favorite and in three of its last four following a loss by 14 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |