10-20-19 |
Chargers v. Titans UNDER 41 | | 20-23 |
Loss | -109 | 55 h 23 m | Show |
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10-20-19 |
Cardinals v. Giants OVER 49.5 | | 27-21 |
Loss | -110 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
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10-20-19 |
49ers v. Redskins UNDER 41 | | 9-0 |
Win | 100 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
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10-07-19 |
Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This looks like a clear case of recency bias. The Browns put on a big show last week as do the niners the week earlier and now we expect a shootout? I think Cleveland leans heavily on Chubb and SF looks to run the ball.as well San Fran is the second best defensive according to DVOA and the Browns can pressure the QB. Much loser scoring than 48 |
10-06-19 |
Patriots v. Redskins UNDER 42.5 | | 33-7 |
Win | 100 | 76 h 1 m | Show |
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10-06-19 |
Jets v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | | 6-31 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
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10-06-19 |
Bills v. Titans UNDER 39.5 | | 14-7 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
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09-30-19 |
Bengals v. Steelers OVER 44.5 | | 3-27 |
Loss | -114 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
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09-29-19 |
Panthers v. Texans OVER 47 | | 16-10 |
Loss | -115 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
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09-26-19 |
Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | | 34-27 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 28 m | Show |
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09-22-19 |
Jets v. Patriots UNDER 46 | | 14-30 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 36 m | Show |
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09-22-19 |
Broncos v. Packers UNDER 43 | | 16-27 |
Push | 0 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
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09-22-19 |
Dolphins v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | | 6-31 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
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09-15-19 |
Jaguars v. Texans OVER 43 | | 12-13 |
Loss | -110 | 75 h 17 m | Show |
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09-12-19 |
Bucs v. Panthers OVER 49 | | 20-14 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
I was very high on the Bucs going into this year - at least offensively. Last week they looked awful. That said, this game had a 52 pt total before last week and all that has changed is one bad game. I still expect this to be a shootout, as the Bucs can't stop Carolina and Tampa will be forced to throw early and often. With Winston, this an mean big plays going either way. PICK: OVER 49 |
09-09-19 |
Texans v. Saints UNDER 53 | | 28-30 |
Loss | -115 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
While this looks like a shootout on paper, the Saints actually have put together a good defense. Combine that with the fact that they historically get off to slow starts and I think this number is too high. Both teams will look to establish the run and it may be more ball control than what is anticipated. THE Texans are sound defensively, if not overpowering. They should be able to make some stops and keep this game close PICK: UNDER 53 |
09-08-19 |
49ers v. Bucs OVER 51 | | 31-17 |
Loss | -105 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
How does either team get any stops in this game? I guess there could be rust but if this game kicks off in week 4, it's a 55+ pt total. Jimmy G has stunk it up in the summer but this Bucs defense could be just what the doctor ordered. I expect big games from Kittle and Brieda too. Winston has weapons everywhere and the right coach in Arians to let him air it out ( his avg depth of target was already high). Evans and Godwin will light it up today. PICK: OVER 51 |
09-08-19 |
Colts v. Chargers UNDER 45 | | 24-30 |
Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
While The Colts lost Andrew Luck, what people forget is they had really spent a lot of draft capital and resources building their defense. This isn’t the Colts of old where it was Manning and no team around him. I don’t see the Chargers simply scoring all over this unit. I think the Colts will try to establish the run. I realize the Chargers are missing some key players on defense but this number is a bit too high for the type of game we will see. PICK: UNDER 45 |
09-08-19 |
Falcons v. Vikings OVER 47.5 | | 12-28 |
Loss | -110 | 98 h 6 m | Show |
This game will be one of a couple shootouts this Sunday. I don't see Atlanta slowing down the Vikings on the ground or through the air. Look for lots of Thielen and a decent running game to boot. When Atlanta plays from behind they always rack up points and I don't expect this game to be any different. Lot's of action in this one and we easily bust the over. PICK: OVER 47.5 |
12-30-18 |
Colts v. Titans UNDER 43.5 | | 33-17 |
Loss | -109 | 1 h 31 m | Show |
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12-30-18 |
Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 39 | | 24-27 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
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12-30-18 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 50 | | 32-48 |
Loss | -110 | 2 h 42 m | Show |
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12-30-18 |
Bears v. Vikings OVER 40.5 | | 24-10 |
Loss | -100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
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12-30-18 |
Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | | 17-42 |
Loss | -107 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
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12-24-18 |
Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 42.5 | | 14-27 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show |
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12-23-18 |
Rams v. Cardinals OVER 43 | | 31-9 |
Loss | -110 | 1 h 33 m | Show |
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12-17-18 |
Saints v. Panthers OVER 49 | | 12-9 |
Loss | -110 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
The Panthers can't play defense this year, especially against the pass. This spells trouble when facing the best passer in the NFL. The Saints have been uneven lately but I expect a bounce back Monday night. Newton will put together enough to make this one bust the total. PICK: OVER 49 |
12-16-18 |
Patriots v. Steelers UNDER 54.5 | | 10-17 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
In a year where we have killed it on high scoring games, this one just stinks. 54.5 is simply too much which is why this game opened at 49.5. Time to take advantage of an inflated, public driven number PICK: UNDER 54.5 |
12-13-18 |
Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 53 | | 29-28 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
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12-06-18 |
Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 37 | | 9-30 |
Loss | -102 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The UNDER |
12-02-18 |
Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 53 | | 40-33 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
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11-26-18 |
Titans v. Texans OVER 42 | | 17-34 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time The Pick: Take The OVER |
11-25-18 |
Packers v. Vikings OVER 48 | | 17-24 |
Loss | -107 | 1 h 37 m | Show |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time The Pick: Take The OVER |
11-25-18 |
Patriots v. Jets OVER 46 | | 27-13 |
Loss | -105 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time The Pick: Take The OVER |
11-22-18 |
Falcons v. Saints OVER 60 | | 17-31 |
Loss | -117 | 1 h 36 m | Show |
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11-22-18 |
Bears v. Lions OVER 42.5 | | 23-16 |
Loss | -112 | 1 h 30 m | Show |
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11-18-18 |
Eagles v. Saints OVER 56 | | 7-48 |
Loss | -103 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
No Analysis Due TO Limited Time. The Pick: Take The OVER |
11-18-18 |
Panthers v. Lions OVER 49 | | 19-20 |
Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
No Analysis Due TO Limited Time. The Pick: Take The OVER |
11-11-18 |
Falcons v. Browns OVER 50 | | 16-28 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
Atlanta has been a top 5 offensive team all year. They have lost some tough ones but this Cleveland team shouldn't out up too much resistance. I also like Baker and company to get their chances against a mediocre Falcons defense. I'm thinking this game soars over the 50 mark and consider this a really nice number PICK: OVER 50 |
11-04-18 |
Rams v. Saints UNDER 58 | | 35-45 |
Loss | -110 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
Man, we been on the scoring trend earlier and more often than most but this number is just too big. Yes, these are two of the premier offenses in the league but this appears to be more perception than reality. The Rams actually added talent to that great D line in the form of more pass rush from Dante Fowler. Aaron Donald, the best defensive player in the NFL is coming on now too so we should expect at least a few big plays from that defense. The other big factor for me on this under is the Saints really have been rushing the ball more than you would think. Their reputation as a shoot out type team is well deserved, but this number suggests that they are more run and gun than they really are. PICK: UNDER 58 |
11-04-18 |
Chargers v. Seahawks OVER 47 | | 25-17 |
Loss | -110 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
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11-04-18 |
Falcons v. Redskins OVER 48 | | 38-14 |
Win | 101 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
55 and Sunny. That's the forecast for this game and it bodes well for the over. The Falcons have given up 30.3 pts per game and that trend should continue, even against this mediocre Skins offense. The Washington defense has played pretty well and they rank highly upon first glance. But a better measure, DVOA, which adjusts stats for factors like competition, shows this is a middle of the pack unit. The falcons can score 24+ in their sleep against a middling defense. PICK: OVER 48 |
11-04-18 |
Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52 | | 37-21 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The Weather looks perfect for this game and there is no reason to believe the Chiefs will be slowed down any time soon. If they have an off game, it probably looks like 30 pts and 3 TDs for Mahomes! Obviously the reason for this reasonable total ( in today's NFL) is bettors doubt the Brown's ability to score. I think the Chiefs defense is easily "gettable" by Mayfield and his new offensive coordinator. Look for yet another shootout with both tight ends having big days. PICK: OVER 52 |
11-04-18 |
Jets v. Dolphins UNDER 41.5 | | 6-13 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
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10-28-18 |
Ravens v. Panthers UNDER 44 | | 21-36 |
Loss | -108 | 73 h 17 m | Show |
The Ravens are going to try to run the ball in Carolina but won't find much success against a top ranked Panthers defense. This leaves the ball in Flaccos hands which means tons of short passes. Cam Newton is banged up and they already haven't been having much success through the air. I fully expect the Panthers to run into this brick wall of a Ravens defense all day. Lots of running and short passes = lots of clock running. PICK: UNDER 44 |
10-28-18 |
Jets v. Bears OVER 44.5 | | 10-24 |
Loss | -114 | 72 h 22 m | Show |
Bears and Jets are both somewhat overrated on defense. What the Bears might do, however, is create turnovers against Darnold, who has already thrown 10 picks. Last week the Jets soared over the total against a better defense in the Vikings. I fully expect them to score enough to make this over viable. The Bears offense will move the ball at home and we bust this modest total PICK: OVER 44.5 |
10-25-18 |
Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | | 23-42 |
Loss | -111 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
I'm going to make this short and sweet. The Dolphins are missing offensive weapons everywhere and Houston cannot protect Watson nor score in the red zone. The UNDER is the play on this Thursday night snoozefest as Osweiler proves why he is a bust. PICK: UNDER 44.5 |
10-21-18 |
Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 57.5 | | 10-45 |
Loss | -109 | 56 h 30 m | Show |
Yes, we are taking the highest total on the board but honestly, is this number even enough? The Bengals are by any measure a very potent offense and nobody has showed any signs at all of slowing down the Chiefs, especially at home. Even if the Chiefs get out to a quick lead, expect the Bengals to score plenty of “garbage” points in this affair. Decent chance this game goes over 70. PICK: OVER 57.5 |
10-15-18 |
49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | | 30-33 |
Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time: The Pick: Take The OVER |
10-14-18 |
Bears v. Dolphins OVER 41.5 | | 28-31 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 50 m | Show |
The Bears have become a force on defense and they travel to a Miami team that has been struggling offensively. Seems like an obvious under then right? Not so fast. This number is way too low. It seems like a classic case of overreacting to both the Bears good defense and Miami‘s issues. I have this over at 43-44 at least, particularly in a year like this and will gladly take this and expect Miami to make plays in the passing game. PICK: OVER 41.5 |
10-07-18 |
Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | | 17-27 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
Scoring has been crazy thus far with an even stronger emphasis in protecting the offense from the league. Every week we see 400+passing games and pinball scores. But as with everything, there comes a point where the value is simply no longer there. 48.5 is too many points for a game that includes a couple decent defenses and the Dolphins offense on the road. This should be the week Miami actually tries to run the ball which also will slow the game down. The Bengals offense has been great but this week the game script will be different PICK: UNDER 48.5 |
10-01-18 |
Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 54 | | 27-23 |
Loss | -119 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
This OVER for me is all about the Kansas City Chiefs. The Denver Broncos have the kind of team with Case Keenum that they want to score 24 points and play great defense to win games. The problem with that kind of thinking is with Patrick Mahomes under center the Chiefs offense look nearly unstoppable. With weapons all over the field, the Chiefs have scored 38, 42 and 38. They need to score all those points because their defense can't seem to cover anyone anymore without lockdown corner Marcus Peters. The Chiefs defense has given up 27 or more points in all their games this season as well. Look for Andy Reid to keep his foot on the gas and the Broncos to be forced to throw the ball all game to keep up. The Pick: Take The OVER. |
09-27-18 |
Vikings v. Rams OVER 48.5 | | 31-38 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
The Rams have the most dangerous offense in the NFL outside of Kansas City and are licking their chops at a chance to face this Vikings defense at home after their dismal showing in Minnesota last year. The Viking defense hasn't looked as dominant this season and will probably get their act together but they will have a tough time containing the Rams for all 4 quarters. On the other side, the Viking offense is way better than they looked in that ghastly performance against the Bills. They have weapons all over the field and with Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters out for the Rams Stephon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph should have a big night. The Pick: Take The OVER. |
09-17-18 |
Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43 | | 17-24 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
Looking at these two teams and these two rosters, they are very similar in two ways. First there is a lack of star power on both offenses outside of Russell Wilson. The Seahawks lack any real threat at running back, their receiver corps doesn't scare anyone and to make matters worse their offensive line is garbage. The Bears are in the same boat they don't have a proven QB. Depending on who you listen to Mitchell Trubiskey and Jordan Howard are going to be very good players but they aren't quite there yet and the receiver corps are servicable group but they lack playmakers. On the otherhand both of these teams have very good defenses. The Bears defense is nasty and with the addition of Khalil Mack they may be as good as the Jaguars and Vikings by the time this year is over. The Seahawks defense is nowhere near as good as their Super Bowl days but they're still good enough especially up front to give the Bears offense some trouble. Take The UNDER |
09-09-18 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 44 | | 21-21 |
Win | 100 | 49 h 5 m | Show |
The Browns are loaded with talent after all these years of drafting at or near the top. While this may or may not translate on the field, we do expect them to be steadier with Tyrod Taylor at the helm. While Taylor almost never turns the ball over, he is hesitant to pull the trigger as well. Other than turnovers, the one area that should see vast improvement is the defense - specifically because Miles Garrett is a beast - nearly unstoppable ala JJ Watt. The Steelers, with our without Bell, have a formidable offense. However the conditions are expected to be wet and windy and we expect Tomlin to try to run the ball a bit more than usual. While there will be some big plays, the consistent nature of Tyrod and the improved Browns defense lead us to believe that this total was simply priced too high. PICK: UNDER 44 |
09-06-18 |
Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 45 | | 12-18 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
The defending super bowl champs meet the Falcons in an opening night playoff rematch. Despite two high flying offenses, we expect this game to stay fairly low scoring. 45 seems a stretch for this opener but makes sense as the public's last look at the Eagles saw them racking up yards and points. The Eagles will turn to Foles, who had a less than stellar preseason/camp and is without Alshon Jeffery. They should look to establish the run and will likely play a slower pace than later in the year. Atlanta will have their hands full on the road and that Eagles defensive line will be enough to keep them in check. PICK: UNDER 45 |
01-21-18 |
Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46 | | 20-24 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
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12-25-17 |
Raiders v. Eagles UNDER 46 | | 10-19 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
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