Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-31-18 | NC State +7.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -129 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: NC State (10* TRADE-MARK) In a game which I think’ll be decided by whichever of these talented schools has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend to grab the points. NC State comes in on top form with three straight wins. Texas A&M also won its final three games of the year. Both teams will be missing a few players due to the draft. NC State will be leaning on QB Ryan Finley, who had 3,789 passing yards and 24 passing TD’s. The A&M secondary was terrible, allowing 262.7 YPG through the air. The Aggies will in fact be down some key players on the defensive side of the ball, including LB Otaro Alaka and safety Donovan Wilson. Note as well that the Wolfpack are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. As mentioned off the top, this one has “war” written all over it. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 28-27 Aggies. | |||||||
12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) In all honesty, I think the 6-6 Hokies would admit themselves that they shouldn’t be in this bowl vs. the 10-2 Bearcats. Cincinnati got smashed by UCF on November 17th, but it would close its season with a resounding 56-6 thumping of East Carolina. Bearcats’ QB Desmond Ridder has 2,359 passing yards and a 19/5 TD:INT. Cincinnati is especially potent in the run game, averaging 238.1 YPG. But the Bearcats are best on the defensive side of the ball, ranked seventh in the nation by allowing only 16.1 PPG. VT has Ryan Willis under center and he finished with 2,497 yards with a 22/8 TD:INT. But note that the Bearcats are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on field turf. BLOWOUT! Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-19 Cincinnati. | |||||||
12-29-18 | Oklahoma +14 v. Alabama | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 490 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oklahoma (10* BOWL SIDE OF YEAR) Am I calling for an outright upset? I am not. However I think that the 12-1 Sooners have the offense to put enough pressure on the Tide to keep this one more competitive than what Vegas would like us to believe. Oklahoma enters off a 39-27 win over Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, while Alabama defeated No. 4 Georgia 34-27 in the SEC Championship. Oklahoma is the No. 1 offense in the league with 49.5 PPG, while the defense allows 32.4. Alabama averaged 47.9 PPG and it allowed only 14.8. Note that Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing on two weeks or more of rest, while Alabama is 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-37 Bama. | |||||||
12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 55 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 486 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Irish/Tigers under (10* BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR) With more than three whole weeks off to game-plan for this one, I think these elite defensive units battle each other tight, which will in turn result in this total staying below the posted number. Both teams are unbeaten. Notre Dame finished 12-0 and in its finale vs. USC, QB Ian Book had 352 yards, two TD’s and an INT in the 24-17 win. The Tigers get the job done on the defensive side of the ball as well. In their ACC Title clinching 42-10 win over Pittsburgh the Tigers’ defense had three sacks and nine tackles for a loss. Clemson has seen the total go under in seven of their last nine neutral site affairs following a three weeks or more layoff, while the Irish have seen the total dip under in four of their last five neutral site games. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 27-14 Clemson. | |||||||
12-28-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Washington State | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Iowa State (10* MONEY-MAKER) It’s the No. 24 Iowa State Cyclones vs. the No. 13 Washington Huskies and I smell an upset. Iowa State started slowly, but it’s since won seven of its last eight, including two straight. WSU comes in dejected, relegated to the Alamo Bowl after a disappointing 28-15 home loss to Washington in the Apple Cup. These two teams closed their respective regular seasons on completely opposite ends of the spectrum, and I think that carries over here. The Cyclones average 26.8 PPG and they allow 22.5. “We’re as healthy as we’ve been,” Coach Matt Campbell said. “That time off that we took for us was really, really important. I really feel like we’ll be 100 percent going into this bowl game.” WSU averages 38.3 PPG and it allows 23.1. Note though that Iowa State is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 as an underdog, while WSU is just 2-3 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 ISU. | |||||||
12-27-18 | Vanderbilt -3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Vanderbilt (10* MONEY-MAKER) Baylor and Vanderbilt became bowl eligible late, but I think Vanderbilt has the momentum here. Also note that the Bears will be without star receiver Jalen Hurd, who played through a knee injury in his team’s 35-24 win over Texas Tech in its regular season finale, a victory which made it eligible. Note though that the Bears have turned in a Big 12 worst turnover margin of minus-9 and they’ve given up 37 sacks total, which is worst in the conference as well. Vandy on the other hand comes in with a lot of momentum with back-to-back wins to end the year over Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Commodores have a potent one-two punch on offense to between RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn (who had an SEC best 6.95 rushing yards per attempt) and QB Kyle Shurmur (23 passing TDs). Note as well that the Bears are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games, while Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Vandy. | |||||||
12-26-18 | TCU v. California UNDER 39 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 37 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: TCU/Cal under (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Neither team had a great year. Both teams are above average defensively and poor offensively. With three weeks off in between games, I think these trends become amplified, as I look for the defenses to complete dominate the headlines of this one. Cal averages 22.8 PPG and it allows 21.2. TCU averages 24.7 PPG and it allows 24.4. Note as well that TCU has seen the total go under the number in its last four off two straight wins vs. conference rivals, while Cal has seen the total go under in its last five after scoring 14 points or less in its previous game. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 17-10 Cal. | |||||||
12-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Louisiana Tech (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) It’s a clash of two styles. LT was 7-5 and Hawaii finished 8-5. The Warriors average over 32 PPG, while LT hold opponents to under 24. Hawaii is just 4-3 all time in the Hawaii Bowl, proving that home field doesn’t mean much in this situation. Louisiana Tech though is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games, while the Warriors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games and just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 vs. teams with winning records. I’m grabbing the points but expecting an upset. T.M. Prediction: 33-28 Bulldogs. | |||||||
12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Bulls finished 10-3 and the Trojans were 9-3. Buffalo will be extra angry here as it looks to atone for a 30-29 loss to NIU in the MAC title game, a contest in which it held a 29-10 lead at one point. Bulls’ QB Tyree Jackson will be given the green light after posting 2,857 passing yards and a 27/11 TD:INT. Buffalo is also strong rushing, ranked 45th in the FBS. In the end the Bulls averaged 34.8 PPG and allowed 24.7. Troy averaged just 29.8 PPG and it allowed 21.2. The Trojans are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven vs. the MAC though, while Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. With a few weeks off to prepare, I like the Bulls’ offense to win out over Troy’s tough defense. Play on Buffalo. T.M. Prediction: 27-23 Bulls. | |||||||
12-21-18 | Florida International v. Toledo -4.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toledo (10* MONEY-MAKER) FIU was 8-4 and Toledo was 7-5. FIU averages 34.6 PPG and it allows 24.7. James Morgan has 2,727 yards and a 26/7 TD:INT. The Rockets averaged a whopping 41.1 PPG and they allowed 30.2. Eli Peters had 1,573 passing yards and 15/7 TD:INT. The Rockets though were money in the bank for bettors in the spot, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing less then 275 total yards in their previous game, while the Golden Panthers are a poor 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 37-21 Rockets. | |||||||
12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Marshall (10* BOWL MONEY-MAKER) What’s to like about USF here? The Bulls opened the year 7-0, but then a combination of injury and bad luck saw USF back into the bowl season on five straight losses. The Herd finished 8-4 and they’ve won their last six bowl appearances. The Bulls feature a strong run game with Johnny Ford and Jordan Cronkrite, but the uncertainty surrounding starting QB Blake Barnett is a major concern here in my opinion. If he can play, one has to wonder about his health and if he’s really at 100% capacity? The combination of Brett Kean and Chris Oladokun went for 113 passing yards in USF’s season-ending loss to UCF. Note as well that Marshall is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. This one has blowout written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 31-20 Herd. | |||||||
12-19-18 | Ohio v. San Diego State OVER 53.5 | Top | 27-0 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over Frisco Bowl (10*) SDSU is 13-0-1 all time vs. MAC schools. That run may continue here, but the Bobcats won’t be going down without a fight. The Bobcats rely heavily on the run game and star RB AJ Ouellette, who had 1,142 rushing yards and 12 TD’s. He had 196 yards rushing and three TD’s in the Bobcats win over Buffalo in their most recent action. SDSU didn’t have the best season, but that was due mostly to injuries. But with starting QB Christian Chapman and starting RB Juwan Washington back in the mix, the Aztecs will be looking to rebound here and try to salvage a disappointing season. It sets up great for more of an offensive affair in my opinion. Also note that Ohio has seen the total go over in three of its last four when playing with two weeks of rest. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Ohio. | |||||||
12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over NIU/UAB (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Despite these being two extremely defensive minded clubs, I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair. NIU averaged only 20.7 PPG, while allowing 21.8. UAB averaged 29.7 and only allowed 17.9. But with a couple of week’s off to prepare and game-plan, I think this one will sneak above the number once it’s all said and done. And the O/U trends support that theory, as note that NIU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog, while UAB has seen the total soar over in all four games it played in this year when the total was set between 42.5 and 49 points. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 UAB. | |||||||
12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: ASU/Fresno State under (10*) Arizona State finished 7-5, while Fresno State was 11-2. Note that the Sun Devils will be without the services of their top receiver N’Keal Harry as he skips the bowl to prepare for the draft. This is a major blow for Manny Wilkins and company. Fresno State earned this spot by posting a 19-16 OT win over Boise State and I’m expecting a similar dominant defensive performance here as well. ASU has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 off a win vs. a conference rival, while Fresno State has seen the total go under in its last three games off an upset win as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Fresno State. | |||||||
12-08-18 | Navy +7 v. Army | Top | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Navy (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Army went into this game last year with an identical 9-2 record and after winning 14-13, it finished at 10-2. Now the Knights have a chance to do that again. Navy is only 3-9 and it’s going to suffer its first losing season since 2002. Clearly the Midshipmen aren’t happy: “It has obviously been disappointing,” lamented senior linebacker Hudson Sullivan recently. “It’s not the kind of season that any of us even remotely imagined we would have had,” continued Sullivan, who will be playing in his fourth Army-Navy game (the last two of which his team has lost.) “When the season started we were looking forward to having a winning season, beating Army, playing for the conference championship and going to a bowl game. That didn’t happen. So as big as winning the Army-Navy game usually is, it would mean more this year…. We’re going into the game to play as hard as we can and to beat Army and put a black mark on their season. As seniors, it would be a great way to end our career.” All of the pressure is now on the Knights, who are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 20-17 Army. | |||||||
12-01-18 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 64.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 126 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Georgia/Alabama (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). It’s a rematch of last year’s Championship Final. Georgia plays with revenge and the winner of this gets a ticket to the Playoff Tournament. Both teams features top notch offenses and elite defensive units. Alabama though ranks third in the nation in allowing just 13.8 PPG, while Georgia ranks 10th in scoring defense with 17.2 PPG. Note that Georgia has seen the total go under in three of its last four after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games, while Alabama has seen the total go under in seven of its last nine after two straight victories by 28 or more points. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 31-21 Tide. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |