Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 154 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pats/Chiefs over (10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF YEAR) I played this one early and have an unfavourable line, but irregardless of that fact I’m expecting a “shootout!” Despite each needing to focus on the run because of the expected cold weather, I still believe these teams are going to battle to a higher-scoring affair. Patriots’ QB Tom Brady finished with 32 passing TD’s in the regular season and Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes finished with 50. These are two team’s which revolved around their high-powered offenses. Note that they played in New England back in mid-October and the Pats pulled away for the 43-40 win. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Note as well that the Pats have seen the total go over the number in six of eight already this year following a home win, while Kansas City has seen the total go over in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 34-31 Chiefs. | |||||||
01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints UNDER 51 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 147 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Under Eagles/Saints (9*) Nick Foles and the Eagles benefited from a missed FG in Chicago last weekend to keep their defense hopes alive. The last thing Philly can do though is turn this one into a “shootout” and expect to hang with a rested and focused Drew Brees and this high-flying Saints side. These teams played in Week 11 (Foles was sitting and Carson Wentz was still under center) and New Orleans administered a severe 48-7 beatdown. Philly plays with revenge. but the strength of the defending champs hasn’t been offensively this year, it’s once again be on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans has improved defensibly as well, currently ranked fifth with 49 sacks. Additionally note that Philadelphia has seen the total go under in five of its last six after playing its last game on the road, while New Orleans has seen the total go under in four of its last five following a divisional contest. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 24-17 Saints. | |||||||
01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 144 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chargers/Patriots over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) There’s no team that could have used the first round bye more than the Patriots this year. New England clinched the division on the final game of the regular season and QB Tom Brady will now look to guide his team to a ninth Super Bowl. The Chargers won’t be lacking any motivation (or confidence!) today either as QB Philip Rivers will likely view this as his final chance to earn a title. Rivers has lost twice to Brady in the playoffs already (2007 and 2008) and he has in fact lost seven straight vs. his venerable counterpart today. Brady and the Pats are fighting for one last shot at glory as well and with these two gun-slingers going head-to-head, I believe this one sets up as more of a shootout than a defensive battle. Note as well that LA has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while NE has seen the total go over in four of its last five when playing with two weeks rest. T.M. Prediction: 30-26 Pats. | |||||||
01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs UNDER 57 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colts/Chiefs under (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Chiefs owned the No. 1 offense in the league and they paid little attention to the defensive side of things this year. The Colts have been on a roll of late, thanks in part to the dynamic play of of QB Andrew Luck. Between Luck (33) and Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50) these two QB’s have combined for 83 TD’s so far this year. However, if Indianapolis’ improbable run is going to continue, there’s no way it can expect to get into a shootout with Mahomes at home and with a week of rest. So with the Colts putting an added incentive on trying to “control” this game while their on offense, I’m absolutely expecting more of a defensive affair between these two normally high-scoring clubs. Note as well that the Colts have seen the total go under the number in all three games they’ve played in this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC has seen the total go under in 18 of its last 26 at home. T.M. Prediction: 27-22 Chiefs. | |||||||
01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 41 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -104 | 150 h 32 m | Show |
WRONG PLAY CHOSEN; sorry this is a play on the UNDER> The incorrect play was chosen by mistake: T.M. Selection: Eagles/Bears under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) I don’t think there’s any need to break down these two teams and what they did this season. If you’re wagering on this contest, then the “story lines” are well known to even the most casual NFL fan. Philadelphia has been in “do or die” mode for the last month or so and it actually needed Chicago’s help in its win over Minnesota last weekend to even make the post-season. The Eagles are soaring though with Nick Foles under center and now the defending champs run into a “buzz saw” of a defense, which finished first in several categories this season. Philadelphia is too one dimensional and one has to wonder how much “gas” is left in the tank after so many weeks of “living on the edge.” I think Chicago will be out to “control” the pace of this one while on offense, rather than try and turn it into a “shootout.” T.M. Prediction: 17-10 Bears. | |||||||
01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 47.5 | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 126 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colts/Texans under (10* WILD CARD TOTAL BLOWOUT) These teams feature a couple of dynamic, play-making QB’s. The Colts send out Andrew Luck, while the Texans counter with DeShaun Watson and while each put up big numbers in two games against each other this season, I think it’ll be the defenses which steal the headlines once the final horn sounds here. As good as Watson was though, it was Houston’s defense which once again got the job done most weeks. Houston has held its last five opponents under 100 yards on the ground, while allowing just 2.55 yards per rush. While both of their games in the regular season when “over” the number, the conditions now finally seem right for more of a “chess match” in my opinion. Note as well that the Colts have already seen the total go under the number in three of four this year as a road dog of seven points or less, while Houston has seen the total go under in all five games that it’s played this season following a home victory. T.M. Prediction: 24-21 Houston. | |||||||
01-01-19 | Iowa v. Mississippi State OVER 41 | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over Iowa/Mississippi State (10* TOTAL OF MONTH!) These two teams are hungry for a win. The Hawkeyes went 8-4 overall and 4-4 in league play. Mississippi State went 8-4 overall and 4-4 in the SEC. Iowa QB Nate Stanley will be given the green light today and he finished with a solid season, 2,638 passing yard with 23 TD’s and nine INT’s. Overall Iowa averages 31.5 PPG and it allows 17.4. Mississippi State averages 29.1 PPG and it allows just 12.0. Bulldogs’ QB Nick Fitzgerald had 1,018 rushing yards and 12 TDs on the ground. These are two defensive minded clubs, but with extra time off to prepare, I think it’ll be these competent offensive players which “steal the show.” Additionally note that Iowa has seen the total go over the number in all three games it’s played in this year as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Mississippi State. | |||||||
12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 55 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 486 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Irish/Tigers under (10* BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR) With more than three whole weeks off to game-plan for this one, I think these elite defensive units battle each other tight, which will in turn result in this total staying below the posted number. Both teams are unbeaten. Notre Dame finished 12-0 and in its finale vs. USC, QB Ian Book had 352 yards, two TD’s and an INT in the 24-17 win. The Tigers get the job done on the defensive side of the ball as well. In their ACC Title clinching 42-10 win over Pittsburgh the Tigers’ defense had three sacks and nine tackles for a loss. Clemson has seen the total go under in seven of their last nine neutral site affairs following a three weeks or more layoff, while the Irish have seen the total dip under in four of their last five neutral site games. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 27-14 Clemson. | |||||||
12-26-18 | TCU v. California UNDER 39 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 37 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: TCU/Cal under (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Neither team had a great year. Both teams are above average defensively and poor offensively. With three weeks off in between games, I think these trends become amplified, as I look for the defenses to complete dominate the headlines of this one. Cal averages 22.8 PPG and it allows 21.2. TCU averages 24.7 PPG and it allows 24.4. Note as well that TCU has seen the total go under the number in its last four off two straight wins vs. conference rivals, while Cal has seen the total go under in its last five after scoring 14 points or less in its previous game. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 17-10 Cal. | |||||||
12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Bucs/Cowboys (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Dallas was blanked 23-0 in Indianapolis last week. As terrible as the offense looked was as decent as the defense looked against a red hot Andrew Luck and company. Dallas though can still maintain control of the NFC East with a win today and I think it’ll try to dictate and control the pace of this one from the outset. The Bucs have nothing to play for and they enter off back-to-back losses. With many starters being shut down for the season, I think the visitors simply “go through the motions” in this difficult road venue. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go under in five of its last seven as a road dog of 3.5 to seven points, while Dallas has seen the total go under in three of its last four off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. T.M. Prediction: 21-14 Cowboys. | |||||||
12-19-18 | Ohio v. San Diego State OVER 53.5 | Top | 27-0 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over Frisco Bowl (10*) SDSU is 13-0-1 all time vs. MAC schools. That run may continue here, but the Bobcats won’t be going down without a fight. The Bobcats rely heavily on the run game and star RB AJ Ouellette, who had 1,142 rushing yards and 12 TD’s. He had 196 yards rushing and three TD’s in the Bobcats win over Buffalo in their most recent action. SDSU didn’t have the best season, but that was due mostly to injuries. But with starting QB Christian Chapman and starting RB Juwan Washington back in the mix, the Aztecs will be looking to rebound here and try to salvage a disappointing season. It sets up great for more of an offensive affair in my opinion. Also note that Ohio has seen the total go over in three of its last four when playing with two weeks of rest. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Ohio. | |||||||
12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over NIU/UAB (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Despite these being two extremely defensive minded clubs, I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair. NIU averaged only 20.7 PPG, while allowing 21.8. UAB averaged 29.7 and only allowed 17.9. But with a couple of week’s off to prepare and game-plan, I think this one will sneak above the number once it’s all said and done. And the O/U trends support that theory, as note that NIU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog, while UAB has seen the total soar over in all four games it played in this year when the total was set between 42.5 and 49 points. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 UAB. | |||||||
12-16-18 | Redskins v. Jaguars UNDER 36.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 90 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Skins/Jags under (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Two struggling teams go head to head in this one. It’s a non-conference match-up between two clubs desperate for a victory. Each has had to deal with many of the same problems. The Skins lost their starting QB Alex Smith, while Jags’ starter Blake Bortles turned out to be a complete bust. Each has had to deal with significant injuries as well. With each putting any added emphasis on establishing the run while on offense, there’s no doubt this one sets up as more of a lower-scoring “chess match.” Also note that Washington has seen the total go under in three of its last four after a loss by 21 points or more. T.M. Prediction: 17-10 Jags. | |||||||
12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: ASU/Fresno State under (10*) Arizona State finished 7-5, while Fresno State was 11-2. Note that the Sun Devils will be without the services of their top receiver N’Keal Harry as he skips the bowl to prepare for the draft. This is a major blow for Manny Wilkins and company. Fresno State earned this spot by posting a 19-16 OT win over Boise State and I’m expecting a similar dominant defensive performance here as well. ASU has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 off a win vs. a conference rival, while Fresno State has seen the total go under in its last three games off an upset win as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Fresno State. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |