Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-23-18 | Brewers v. Pirates +112 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
NO ACTION PITCHING CHNAGE | |||||||
09-22-18 | Mariners +104 v. Rangers | Top | 13-0 | Win | 104 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) I like the M’s to bounce back after yesterday’s 8-3 setback. Marco Gonzalez has been decent all year, he’s 12-9 with a 4.28 ERA and he most recently went five innings in a no-decision to LA on Sunday, allowing three runs off six hits and striking out six (owns a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games.) The Rangers’ Minor is 12-7 with a 4.14 ERA and the seven year veteran continues to pitch consistently almost every time he takes the mound. These are two pretty good starters going head to head here and I believe they’re a “wash” for the most part. The difference? Seattle is 27-23 against left-handed starters this season, while Texas is just 20-30 against southpaws. Look for Seattle to bounce back on Saturday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 M’s. | |||||||
09-21-18 | Rockies +115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 115 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) German Marquez has been on fire over the last month and he’s been fantastic on the road overall this year. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude. Marquez, who is 12-10 with a 3.96 ERA, comes in off back-to-back dominating outings and note that he’s 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA on the road. The Diamondbacks’ Godley is 14-10 with a 4.79 ERA. After a shaky start he’s been much better over the second half, but he still owns a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in all “night” games. Godley’s been hit or miss this year, while Marquez is clearly getting stronger as the season comes to a close. I look for that trend to continue here. Great value, play on Colorado. NOTE: Greinke snow in for the D-Backs. THIS PLAY IS STILL VALID. Greinke’s 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA and he’s been better at home than on the road, but I don’t think the last minute date changing is helping the veteran out too much at this point of the season. The advantage is still to Marquez. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rockies. | |||||||
09-21-18 | Mets v. Nationals +125 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Mets’ deGrom has been fantastic this year, he is one of just two pitchers with a sub 2.00 ERA (Sale as well.) He’s 8-9 with a 1.78 ERA and clearly it’s difficult to say anything negative about him, but as deGrom’s win/loss record would show, he unfortunately plays on a team which has a hard time producing runs most nights. Joe Ross will be hungry to take advantage. He’s 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and he comes in off back-to-back no-decisions in his first action since July 2017. Ross has the tools in place to match deGrom frame for frame. Great value, give me the hard-hitting underdog home side in this one. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Nationals. | |||||||
09-20-18 | White Sox +174 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 174 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10* TRADE-MARK) I think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog. This pick is based primarily on the fact that Indians’ pitcher Josh Tomlin (1-5, 6.49 ERA) who remains in the starting rotation out of necessity, has been nothing special whatsoever this year. He’ll be moved back to the bullpen once the playoffs start and note that he’s a poor 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA at home this season. White Sox’ starter James Shields (7-16, 4.53) has been more miss than hit this year, but he comes in off consecutive strong outings and I think he offers great value to carry that momentum over here. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 White Sox. | |||||||
09-19-18 | Giants +115 v. Padres | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think Chris Stratton and the talented Giants offer great value in this spot. Stratton is 10-9 with a 4.66 ERA. Stratton’s been hit or miss this year, but he’s been consistently at his best in all “night” games with a 3.99 ERA. The Padres’ Erlin is 3-7 with a 4.27 ERA and he remains in the starting rotation out of necessity. Erlin has also looked decent at times this season and very pedestrian in others, but note that the Padres are just 2-7 in their last nine night home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range. I like Stratton to continue his consistent play on the road. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. | |||||||
09-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies +115 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 115 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I like Zach Eflin to find a way to get the job done at home here. The Mets’ Syndergaard is 12-3 with a 3.26 ERA and he most recently went seven scoreless against the Red Sox on Friday. Syndergaard though has been trading good starts with bad since early August and I absolutely expect that trend to carry over here. Eflin is 10-7 with a 4.26 ERA and after a stretch of futility throughout August, he’d finally bounce back with a decent effort against the Marlins in his latest start. Eflin will now look to close out strong and he’ll be confident in this spot for sure, as note that he’s 7-3 with a 3.28 ERA at home. Give me the hungry home underdog in this one. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
09-18-18 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | 8-1 | Win | 130 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the hard-hitting and hungry underdog visitors are the correct call in this match-up Tuesday night. The Cards’ Austin Gomber is 5-1 with a 3.78 ERA and he comes in off his worst start of the year against the Dodgers last week, allowing seven runs over three innings. The rookie’s been solid all season though and he’s been at his best on the road, as evidenced by his sparkling 2-0, 3.30 ERA record away from friendly confines. The Braves’ Sanchez is 6-5 with a 3.01 ERA and he gave up one earned run in a win over the Giants on Wednesday. Sanchez has exceeded expectations this season, but note that he’s 1-3 with a 3.56 ERA at home. Additionally note that the Cards are 7-2 in their last nine National League night road games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range. Great value on the visitors here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cards. | |||||||
09-18-18 | Mets +170 v. Phillies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Looks like a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry underdog pitcher. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz, who is 5-11 with a 4.18 ERA. He’s enjoyed a much more consistent second half performance and he comes in on top form, having thrown two straight gems. The Phillies’ Aaron Nola is 16-5 with a 2.42 ERA. He’s been trading good starts with bad of late and most recently he comes in off a shaky outing against the Nationals last Wednesday. Nola’s been great obviously and he has the tools in place to cap off his best season ever, but I still think he’s over priced here. Note as well that the Phillies are just 2-6 in their last eight home games as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. Great value on the visitors in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mets. | |||||||
09-17-18 | Cardinals +125 v. Braves | 11-6 | Win | 125 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the talented underdog pitcher. The Cards’ Mikolas is 15-4 with a 2.99 ERA and he’s been extremely effective on the road this year by going 8-0 with a 3.56 ERA. The Braves’ Foltynewicz is 11-9 with a 2.66 ERA and he most recently tossed a complete game against the Giants on Tuesday. I believe Mikolas can match Foltynewicz here and I think that means the value swings to the hungry and talented Cardinals’ line-up. Play on St. Louis. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals. | |||||||
09-17-18 | Mets +104 v. Phillies | Top | 9-4 | Win | 104 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* GAME OF WEEK) Zach Wheeler has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball over the last two months. Wheeler is 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA and he owns a sharp 1.13 WHIP along with 175 strikeouts over his 167.1 innings. He most recently shutout the Fish over eight innings on Wednesday. He’ll face the Phillies’ Arrieta, who is 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA, but who has struggled some over the second half. Note that Philadelphia is just 2-7 in its last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range. Look for the red hot Wheeler to continue his incredible form. Play on the Mets. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Mets. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Diamondbacks +175 v. Astros | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Clearly Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros are formidable opponents. But so too are veteran Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting Arizona Diamondbacks. Greinke is 14-9 with a 3.11 ERA and he comes in off a win against the Rockies on Tuesday, allowing three runs off six hits over seven innings, also striking out five. I think Greinke could compete with any starting pitcher on the planet on any given night (note that he’s 8-6 with a 3.58 ERA on the road.) Verlander is 15-9 with a 2.72 ERA and he’s not been nearly as sharp over the second half of the season as he was in the first. I think Greinke and the Diamondbacks can take advantage of his inconsistency on Sunday and deliver the goods in the end. Great value, play on Arizona. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Pirates +145 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 145 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (10* TRADE MARK) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the under-valued underdog visiting side. The Pirates’ Nova is 8-9 with a 4.17 ERA and he returns to the rotation after a short stint on the DL. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that the Pirates have in fact excelled in this spot by going 7-1 in their last eight National League road night games as an underdog in the +135 to +155 range. Nova catches a break as well facing the Brewers’ Davies, who is 2-5 with a 4.75 ERA and who has split time between the minors and major all season. Home field has been anything but an advantage for Davies, who is just 1-3 with a 4.92 ERA in Milwaukee. Look for the opportunistic Pirates to come out on top of this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Bucs. | |||||||
09-14-18 | Reds +216 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Clearly at over +200, this is a long-shot play. And clearly Harvey has struggled this season for Cincinnati. He was traded half way through from the Mets and while he’s looked brilliant at times, he’s also looked really poor in others. Cole Hamels has looked sharp for his new team, but I think he’s getting way too much respect in this spot. Hamels is 9-9 with a 3.71 ERA overall this year, but he’s still just 2-7 with a 5.01 ERA in all “home” contests (I know he pitched half the season in Texas, but it’s still important to note in my opinion.) I think Harvey offers great value, as I Hamels is completely over-priced. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Reds. | |||||||
09-14-18 | Marlins +160 v. Phillies | 2-14 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8*) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog. The Marlins’ Chen is 6-10 with a 4.72 ERA and he has for the most part struggled this year. That said he’s looked a lot better since the All Star break. Admittedly Chen’s been much better at home than on the road this season, but he’s been decent in all “night” contests with a 3.91 ERA. The Phillies’ Eflin is 9-7 with a 4.42 ERA and he most recently was destroyed for six runs off four hits over three innings in a 10-5 loss to the Mets on Saturday. No starting pitcher in the majors is falling faster and harder than Eflin to end the year, who has a 7.71 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and 21:11 K:BB over his last 23.1 innings of work. Give me a much steadier Chen, as Eflin continues his slide down the proverbial crapper. Play on Miami. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Fish. | |||||||
09-13-18 | Mariners -101 v. Angels | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) I like the crafty Mike Leake and the opportunistic Mariners to find a way to get the job done in this one. Leake is 9-9 with a 4.11 ERA and he comes in off consecutive strong outings. Leake’s been far from perfect, but he’s been better than serviceable. His numbers are respectable, with the 4.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 109:33 K/BB over 171 innings. The Angels’ Shoemaker is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA and he most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings in a win over the punch-less White Sox on Saturday. Since returning from the DL Shoemaker has looked decent, but note that he’s yet to pitch into the sixth inning. Clearly Shoemaker faces a stiff test here. I like Leake to push his counterpart and deliver the goods. Great value on the Mariners. NOTE: There’s been a late pitching change for the Angels, as Shoemaker will start tomorrow and Odrisamer Despaigne is in. This play is still valid. Despaigne is 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA and he’s been used mostly in relief. Note that he’s 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in all “night” games. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mariners. | |||||||
09-12-18 | Diamondbacks +102 v. Rockies | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) Coors Field is the great equalizer for starting pitchers, so all things being equal between tonight’s, I absolutely feel that the value falls to the southpaw Patrick Corbin and the hard-slugging Diamondbacks. Corbin is 11-5 with a 3.01 ERA and he would give up one run over six innings while striking out nine in a dominant victory over Atlanta on Friday. Corbin now has at least seven strikeouts over nine straight starts and he owns an 11.2 K/9 on the year. The Rockies’ Gray is 11-7 with a 4.69 ERA and while he’s been decent at home with a 6-3, 4.56 ERA, I still believe that he’s in well over his head in this match-up (note that Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine night National League contests when the line in the game is set between +125 and -125.) Look for Corbin to out-last Gray. Great value on the Diamondbacks. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 D-Backs. | |||||||
09-12-18 | Nationals +129 v. Phillies | 5-1 | Win | 129 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (8*) Aaron Nola has been fantastic this season and he’s enjoyed success against the Nationals already this year. Washington’s Stephen Strasburg hasn’t looked quite as sharp since returning from injury, but the veteran clearly has the track record and pedigree to return to his normal dominant self (and note most importantly that Strasburg is 5-2 with a 2.12 ERA on the road this year.) I think Nola takes a step back and I look for the hungry Strasburg to take advantage. Great value on the Nationals. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals. | |||||||
09-12-18 | Padres +157 v. Mariners | 5-4 | Win | 157 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (8*) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on National League underdog visiting side. The Padres’ Lucchesi comes in off back to back strong performances. The rookie southpaw has clearly exceeded expectations to this point, but his peripherals suggest that he’ll be able to maintain his form (note that Lucchesi has a sharp 2.78 ERA on the road.) The Mariners’ LeBlanc is 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA and for the most part the veteran has been extremely solid. Note that San Diego is 11-4 in its last 15 inter-league night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +175 range. I like Lucchesi to at the very least match LeBlanc and to catch the home side “off guard.” Great value, give me the hungry dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Friars. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,105 |
Ray Monohan | $644 |
Jack Jones | $507 |
Marc Lawrence | $385 |
Ross Benjamin | $265 |
Kyle Hunter | $80 |
Will Rogers | $66 |
Jim Feist | $45 |