Secrets of a Successful Sports Bettor – Don’t Get on the Hype Train!

Our history is filled with colossal mistakes and miscalculations. Remember that at one point in time people thought the earth was flat, Joan of Arc was a witch and Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. The fact of the matter is that just because everybody believes something to be true, that doesn’t make it so. We can say the same thing about the history of sports. Evander Holyfield was a 25-1 underdog in his first fight against Mike Tyson, Holly Holm was a 9-1 underdog versus Ronda Rousey, and the New England Patriots were a 14 point underdog in Super Bowl XXXVI versus the Rams.

These are just a few examples of overvalued favorites that failed to live up to the hype. Of course Mike Tyson was the most feared heavyweight fighter of all time, Ronda Rousey was voted the best female athlete of all time, and the Patriots had a backup quarterback making just his second career post-season start in the Super Bowl. But that backup quarterback turned out to be Tom Brady, and Tyson was fighting an experienced former champion that went by the nickname “The Real Deal”. While Holyfield was indeed the real deal, Ronda Rousey was not. She made her name fighting inferior opponents at a time when women’s MMA was just an emerging sport.

Everybody loves a winner, and as the wins pile up, the media hype intensifies. It’s important as a bettor to understand that reality often takes a back seat on the hype train. The smart money rarely follows a team on an extended winning streak, and the more bettors are united behind one side, the more likely it is that the value lies with the opposite side. I saw this first hand in the 2019 NBA Finals, when a wounded Warriors team was a consensus favorite against a Toronto Raptors team that had both a better record and home court advantage.

I made three prop bets prior to Game 1 of the 2019 Finals. I bet Toronto +$450 to win without trailing, +$260 on Kawhi Leonard to win MVP, and Toronto +$200 to win two of the first three games. All of these bets were documented at Covers.com. In my career as a professional handicapper, I have made a reputation for exposing soft lines offered on major sporting events such as the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, NHL & MLB Playoffs, and perhaps most impressive is my record betting in the FIFA World Cup of Soccer. The bigger the event, the more likely public money is going to influence the betting line.

Betting against the hype train doesn’t always mean fading the favorite. The public can also fall in love with an underdog, and in such cases the favorite becomes undervalued. This was the case when Conor McGregor fought Floyd Mayweather. The opening line for that fight had Mayweather favored by as high as 10-1, and the public bet that number down as low as 3-1 by the day of the fight. McGregor came into that fight grossly overvalued, and has remained so since. He was a 3-1 favorite in his first fight versus Dustin Poirier, and despite the loss he was roughly a pickem in the rematch.

Warren Buffett says that you should be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. He applies this principal to investing in the stock market and real estate, but the same theory is just as true when you apply it to betting on sports.

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