Asa - Betting Expert

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* BYU -4.5 over Loyola Marymount, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 just played in early January and Loyola was just a 1 point home favorite. Now we’re getting BYU at -3 at home (opening line) which is solid value in our opinion. Especially with the way the game played out @ Loyola Marymount. The Lions won that game 64-59 and it was tight throughout (tied at halftime) despite Loyola making 5 more three pointers and 10 more FT’s. The Lions went to the FT line 23 times to just 9 for BYU. Both teams shot around 41% for the game so based on that and the advantages Loyola had from the 3 point line and FT line (scored 25 more points in those 2 areas) it should have been a blowout but wasn’t. Now we get BYU at a cheap price at home as they are coming off 3 straight losses. Two of those setbacks were tight games on the road and their most recent loss was at home to the WCC’s top team St Mary’s on Saturday by the final score of 57-56. The Gaels, ranked 7th nationally per KenPom, made a shot with under 1 second remaining to get the win. What made the loss even more impressive is BYU played without 3 key players – one starter and their 2 top reserves and still almost pulled out the win. Those 3 players combine to average 19 PPG and 11 RPG along with eating up an average of 61 minutes per game so they are key contributors. All were suspended for 1 game and are back for this one. BYU has lost 2 home games in conference play this season, both by 1 point to the 2 best teams in the league, Gonzaga & St Mary’s, as we mentioned. LMU is 6-3 in West Coast Conference play but they’ve faced the easiest league schedule thus far. They have a 3-4 record in true road games and they’ve lost 18 of the last 20 meetings vs BYU. The Lions have won only once here in Provo since the 2007 season and that was way back in 2011/12 season. BYU is now 4-5 in WCC play and in must win mode at home where they have been extremely tough to beat over the years (45-8 record over their last 53 home games). Lay the small number with the Cougars at home.

#752 ASA FREE PLAY ON Troy -1 or Pick over Southern Miss, Thursday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason that Troy with a 13-10 overall record is favored over Southern Miss with a 19-4 overall record. First off, the Trojans have played the much tougher schedule both overall in an CUSA play. They are also 7-2 at home this season with their 2 losses coming by 2 points in OT and by 3 points. The Trojans average winning margin at home this season is 86-64. USM comes in overvalued having won 5 straight games including their last 4 wins coming at home. They haven’t been on the road since mid January and the Golden Eagles are 2-2 on the road in CUSA play with their 2 road wins coming vs Arkansas St and UL Monroe, the 2 lowest rated teams in the conference. Troy’s defense is superior to USM’s ranking 1st in the conference (league games) in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. These 2 already met this season and USM was a 3.5 point home favorite and won the game 64-60. Now we are getting Troy as a very small home favorite in revenge mode and they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games (3 of those 4 losses on the road and their home loss in OT) so this is a must win at home. These 2 teams have met 5 times and the host has won 4 of those games. Troy has won 17 of their 22 home games since the start of last season and we look for another “W” tonight. Take Troy.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team.