Asa - Betting Expert

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line -125 over Chicago Blackhawks at 7 PM ET - From a situational perspective, this one is a fantastic one in terms of how it sets up.  Columbus has gone a perfect 4-0 this season when they have entered a game off back to back losses.  Their coach John Tortorella is a very demanding coach and you can bet he is on his team big after any loss but particularly back to back defeats.  Sure enough the Jackets have responded each time when in this situation this season and the combined score has been 15 to 7 in those victories.  Columbus has scored an average of 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season.  Chicago got the shootout win, 6-5, in a crazy high-scoring win over the Blue Jackets Tuesday.  That kind of high-scoring effort from the Blackhawks on the road is absolutely the exception rather than the norm this season.  Their prior road game was a 5-3 loss at Carolina and, prior to that, Chicago had played 10 road games and only scored well in one of them.  In the other 9 the Blackhawks scored an average of only 1.6 goals per game.  In other words, their performance Tuesday was most definitely an aberration and the Blue Jackets are set up well to get revenge tonight at a great price. Chicago is expected to start Malcolm Subban in this one and there is a reason that, long-term in the NHL, he has always been a back-up rather than the starter.  The Blackhawks Subban had a 3.17 GAA last season and historically has struggled on the road.  He has been better than expected early this season but that is a very small sample size and his long-term numbers tell the full story.  Look for Joonas Korpisalo to respond in the crease for the Blue Jackets tonight as he had been solid in 2 of 3 starts against Chicago before struggling in Tuesday's shootout loss.  It is payback time for Columbus and Korpisalo in this one!  Considering all of the above factors, look for a home ice blowout in this one.  Take the BLUE JACKETS

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Sacramento Kings @ NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - Two contrasting styles square off in the Garden Thursday night where the faster paced Kings (20th in pace) take on the leagues slowest paced team in the Knicks. New York is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA allowing just 1.084 points per possession which is 3rd best in the league. The Kings on the other hand are last in the league in DEFF allowing 1.190PPP. Offensively the Knicks are 23rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging 1.081PPP, the Kings rank 11th at 1.131PPP. The Kings have given up a ton of points in their last five games which has driven this Total up to as high as it currently is but the reality is they’ve faced some of the NBA’s highest scoring teams recently. Sacramento gave up 127 and 136 to the Nets (1st in scoring), 128 to Milwaukee (2nd), 122 Chicago (8th) and 118 to the Heat who are finally healthy. The Knicks aren’t interested in playing a fast-paced game and getting into a shootout, so they’ll dictate tempo. New York has held 5 of their last ten opponents to less than 100-points and they’ve scored less than 110 in 8 of their last ten. The Kings are on a 5-0 Under run against losing teams while the Knicks are 10-1 Under their last eleven against sub .500 teams. The bet here is UNDER the Total.

#765/766 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145 Points – Ohio State @ Michigan State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and they combined to score 141 points with OSU winning 79-62. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 38% in that game including just 26% from beyond the arc and they still topped 140. We look for a much better offensive performance from both teams on Thursday. The Spartans season only offensive efficiency numbers are not overly impressive but over the last few games this teams seems to be coming together on that end of the court. They combined to shoot 51% while scoring 78 and 81 points in their last 2 games vs Indiana (37th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Illinois (15th nationally in defensive efficiency). In their first game vs OSU the Spartans were just coming back from a long Covid break and struggled scoring just 0.89 PPP which was well below their season average of 1.08 PPP. If the Buckeyes have a weakness, it’s on defense where they rank 7th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 9th in eFG% defense. We think MSU continues to play well on offense in this game. OSU’s offense has been fantastic all season. They rank 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency and in the top 60 in eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG%, and FT%. They just put up 87 points over the weekend on Michigan who is the #1 defense in the Big Ten (MSU ranks 8th in that category). They have scored at least 73 points in 8 straight games and they have topped 80 in half of those games (4). Both teams get to the FT line a lot (3rd and 4th in Big Ten in % of points from the line) and in the first meeting they combined to attempt 60 freebies. If they simply shoot better from the field in this one, this easily gets into the 150’s. Ohio state has gone OVER the total in 6 of their last 7 games (one push during that stretch) while MSU, with their offense now coming together, has gone OVER 3 straight games. With the spread at OSU -4, the projected scored is 76-72. We like both teams to top their projected numbers and this one goes OVER the total.

#777 ASA FREE PLAY ON Montana -3 over Idaho State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - There is a reason a team that sits with a 5-9 conference record (Montana) is favored on the road over a team that has a 7-3 Big Sky record (Idaho St). The Bengals have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country. They are 12-7 on the season and have played a grand total of 2 teams ranked inside the top 200 the entire season. They lost both of those games vs Utah & Santa Clara by double digits. Five of their seven losses have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. When it comes to strict power rankings, Montana (ranked 194) will be the 3rd highest rated team Idaho State has faced this season. In Big Sky play the Bengals have played the easiest schedule thus far. They have yet to face any of the top 4 teams (power rating) in the conference this season until tonight when the take on Montana (4th rated team in the Big Sky). They have played a grand total of 4 games since January 29th and those opponents were George Fox (not a person, a university believe it or not), Northwest (no not Northwestern) and Idaho twice (ranked 355th out of 356 teams). Talk about taking a huge step up in competition tonight. Montana is hungry for a win after losing 3 of their last 4 games. However all 4 of those games were vs Eastern Washington & Weber State (the top 2 teams in the conference) so while Idaho State is taking a big step up, Montana is stepping way down in competition. Idaho State has some solid defensive numbers in conference play but again we must consider the competition. They have not played a team ranked in the top half of the Big Sky in offensive efficiency this season. Montana ranks 4th in the conference in offensive efficiency, 2nd in 3-point % and they make 81% of their FT’s so this will be the best offense the Bengals have faced. The Grizzlies have won 19 straight in this series and the opening number in this one (Montana -3) is the lowest spread in this series for Montana number since the 2013/14 season. Lay this small number.