Asa - Betting Expert

#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 5:05 PM ET – Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the Orioles had their best starter, John Means, on the mound. The Yankees have now won 4 of 5 games and had scored 6 or more runs in 4 straight games prior to yesterday's 4-3 win. On Thursday, the Orioles bullpen is more likely to be exposed as Chris Ellis gets the start here. Yes he was solid against the Yankees when he faced them two weeks ago but they'll be better in the rematch. Also, he has averaged less than 5 innings in his 4 starts this season. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and he is off a rough road outing. Also, at Baltimore this season Montgomery has allowed 7 earned runs on 12 hits in only 8 innings of work. Ellis has walked 7 in 10 innings over his last two starts and we are expecting plenty of base runners for both clubs in this one. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring loss, the Orioles had allowed an average of 9.7 runs per game over their past 7 games. The over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games against a right-handed starter. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over

#901 ASA FREE PLAY ON Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (-130) over Atlanta Braves, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET -  The Braves have been feeling the pressure of trying to hang onto the top spot in the NL East for quite some time now.  Atlanta has lost 4 of its last 5 games against Colorado after falling short again to the Rockies.  Last night's defeat was in extra innings and this is another very tough match-up for the Braves early Thursday in this one.  The pitching match-up helps the Rockies here as German Marquez has a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts plus allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his last visit to Atlanta.  Best way to play the underdog is with the run line in this one.  That's because if you look at Atlanta's last 22 games only 6 of the 22 games were Braves wins by more than a margin of a single run.  Another tight battle expected here as Ian Anderson lost to Marquez less than 2 weeks ago in Colorado and this looks like another tough spot for him.  5 of the last 6 games between these NL foes have been decided by just a single run!  That being said, a lot of value here with the road team and this is particularly true on the run line.  Bet the Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs on the run line.

#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 40.5 Points – NY Giants vs Washington, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 43 which is right where we had it and it has been pushed down to 40.5 so now we’ll jump on the OVER. While this has been a low scoring NFC East series, this total has been adjusted too low. With the total currently set at 40.5 points, this is the 2nd lowest total in the last 23 meetings between these 2 teams. We understand the move down as Washington QB Fitzpatrick was injured and back up Heinicke will be starting here. These teams scored 13 and 16 points last week as well which is the most recent thing bettors have seen. However, neither team was very good defensively last week and we expect both offenses to look much better in week 2. The Washington defense was touted as being one of the best in the NFL this year but they struggled allowing 424 yards to a Charger team that sat many of their starters during the pre-season including QB Herbert. LA scored 20 points but it should have been more as they settled for FG’s on 2 drives deep into Washington territory, Herbert fumbled through the endzone going in to score, and he threw an interception at the Washington 4-yard line. The NYG defense allowed a fairly pedestrian Denver offense (28th in scoring last year / 26th in YPP offense) to put up 27 points on 6.4 YPP. The NYG offense has a lot of weapons at RB & WR and we expect them to play much better this week with a game under their belts. Heinicke was OK last week coming into the game for an injured Fitzgerald but now with a full week of practice as the starter, we also expect Washington to play better on that side of the ball. Remember Heinicke did start last year’s playoff game and threw for over 300 yards and put up 23 points vs one of the best defenses in the league. The average points scored in an NFL game last year was 49.6 and this year after one week it’s 47.8. This one is a full TD+ below those numbers. We like both teams to get to at least 20 points here and that gets this one OVER the total.