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Kansas City Chiefs.

Game 102.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Hello friends, in all sincerity, I feel both of these teams deserve to be playing in the Super Bowl. As a matter fact, I predicted in the preseason, that these two teams would be playing for this season’s Lombardi Trophy (notice they named it after an Italian lol). Having said that, with all respect to the San Francisco 49ers and Brock Purdy, they just have proven that they could win at this level. I know Purdy was not there a few years back when the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl. But I still feel that they are a little bit short of what they need to do to win the Super Bowl. Whether you like it or not, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the new Tom Brady and the Patriots. Not only have they gotten here quite a few times over the last several seasons, but they have prevailed on this platform. I have said it before and I will say it again, whatever you did prior to the Super Bowl does not matter. It is a moot point. Patrick Mahomes is a money player. He comes up big in big game situations. If you are worried about the hype about this team not being what they were, or that their defense can't stop the rush, just look at the Conference title game against a Ravens opponent, which happened to be the NFL’s top-rushing offense. They possess a defensive unit that has not allowed a single opponent to put up better than 27 points this season. My friends, after the Conference Title win, Patrick Mahomes was interviewed, and made it a point to say that the team was cognizant of being an underdog there. HMMM. How would you feel if you were the heavyweight champion of the world, and yet you faced the new kid on the block and were an underdog? Trust me when I tell you, Mahomes and the Chief will take care of business here and probably win this game outright. But I will take the points to err on the side of caution. Kansas City is the play plus the points. Thank you.

Props

As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which was usually the only major prop contest of the year), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you'll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn't give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you're serious about making money, be disciplined. Let me tell you what I mean by that: There is a prop out there about Patrick Mahomes throwing a touchdown; Will Mahomes throw a TD? Do I think he's gonna’ throw a TD? I think he's gonna’ throw several TD’s. But the odds on him to throw a TD, ranges from -450 to -500. There is no value in it my friends. There is no value at all. Listen, God forbid on the first series of the game he gets hurt and he is sidelined, then you are screwed. And to be honest with you, unless you're betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, there's no significant profit in it anyway. Let it go. Below are some props that I really feel strongly about. They are all props that I feel give us value.

PROPS

These are the props I feel are most “valuable” and the ones with a star are stronger, two stars are really strong as far as “value” goes.

 Will the game be tied after 0-0? YES +145 *

Shortest FG of game 27.5 yards. UNDER -110 *

 Will there be a ST or Defensive TD? Yes +250 *

Longest rush by Purdy 6.5 yards. OVER Even Money

Total TD passes by Purdy 1.5. OVER -110

Total receiving yards by Kittle 49.5. OVER -110 *

Will Kittle score a TD? Yes +170

Total TD passes by Mahomes 2. OVER +170

Will Pacheco score a TD? Yes +120

10)Total receiving yards by Kelce 72.5. OVER -110 *

11)Longest reception by Kelce 21.5 yards. OVER Even Money

12)Total receptions by Kelce 6.5. OVER -110 **

13) Will Kelce score a TD? YES +105 **

Over.

Just like me, I'm going to keep this analysis very short and extremely sweet (lol. While, both defenses have consistently been two of the best in the NFL, I feel that both offenses can and will exploit their opponents’ defensive units here. Both offensive units have amazing receivers and great ground games as well. Mind you, a lot of people out there think the under is going to be a big play. But I think you're going to see two smart coaches with two smart quarterbacks commanding two very successful offensive units. Defense will probably win the game in the end. But only after a lot of scoring. Just FYI, the 49ers have played to 10 overs, eight unders, and one push. While the Chiefs have played to mostly unders this season, playing in the Super Bowl is a whole different monster. I see both teams scoring quite a bit consistently throughout the game. Take the over. Thank you.

Props

As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which was usually the only major prop contest of the year), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you'll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn't give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you're serious about making money, be disciplined. Let me tell you what I mean by that: There is a prop out there about Patrick Mahomes throwing a touchdown; Will Mahomes throw a TD? Do I think he's gonna’ throw a TD? I think he's gonna’ throw several TD’s. But the odds on him to throw a TD, ranges from -450 to -500. There is no value in it my friends. There is no value at all. Listen, God forbid on the first series of the game he gets hurt and he is sidelined, then you are screwed. And to be honest with you, unless you're betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, there's no significant profit in it anyway. Let it go. Below are some props that I really feel strongly about. They are all props that I feel give us value.

PROPS

These are the props I feel are most “valuable” and the ones with a star are stronger, two stars are really strong as far as “value” goes.

 Will the game be tied after 0-0? YES +145 *

Shortest FG of game 27.5 yards. UNDER -110 *

 Will there be a ST or Defensive TD? Yes +250 *

Longest rush by Purdy 6.5 yards. OVER Even Money

Total TD passes by Purdy 1.5. OVER -110

Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC Championship Game Winner.

Game 319.

12:00 PM PST/3:00 PM EST.

There is no question these are the two best teams in the AFC. However, you cannot ignore the success of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason. As far as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are concerned, they are certainly a great squad. But let's be honest, when it comes down to the playoffs, Jackson and the team overall, falls a bit short. Trust me when I tell you, Kansas City did what they needed to do on the road in Buffalo last Sunday. Although Baltimore did the same at home against Houston, there is a big difference in the level of opponent from last week to this week for them. The Chiefs are clicking at the right time. They overcame injury issues mid-season. But finished strong, and won and covered both postseason contests. The Ravens have been solid all season long. But at times their defense has shown cracks. I know this somewhat contradicts their top-ranked scoring defense. But hear me out. At times, they showed vulnerability. You cannot say the same for the Kansas City stop-unit. Yes, I am aware that Baltimore's "D" allows just 16.5 points per game, while the KC "D" allows 17.3 points per game. But Kansas City has not allowed a single opponent this season to reach 30 points in scoring (27). Offensively, the Ravens put up more points statistically. They top the league on the ground. But leave a lot to be desired in the air. This is going to be an issue because they are facing one of the toughest pass defenses in football. Kansas City will completely shut down the passing game of Baltimore and allow their defense to key on the running game. The Chiefs have proven they could win a tough game on the road against a solid opponent in the playoffs. They showed us this last week. I also think they are better coached, more disciplined, and a lot more experienced in the postseason. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC JANUARY GAME OF THE MONTH.

Game 317.

3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

Two of the most acclaimed quarterbacks in the NFL are going to be meeting one another for the seventh time. Kansas City and Buffalo have each won three of the previous matchups. However, Patrick Mahomes has bested Josh Allen when it counts, taking both playoff meetings. I don't want to upset any Bill fans. But I've been doing this for a long time, and I want you to know there are fun players, and there are money players. Josh Allen is the first. He puts up amazing numbers every year. But when it comes down to games he must win, let's be honest, the mistakes pile up and the Bills lose. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is a money player. He wins when games are on the line. He wins when crunch time is upon him. And he wins in the postseason. No matter what you do during the regular season, when it comes to the playoffs, it is a whole different monster.  I hear people talking about the weather up in Buffalo. But Kansas City is no stranger to cold weather. I know the Bills closed out the regular season one of the hottest teams in the league. And that did include a three-point outright win on the road at Arrowhead in early-December. But giving Mahomes and the experienced, Kansas City Chiefs points in January is a big mistake. Not only will Mahomes be a major difference in this contest. But the consistently solid defense of the Chiefs will be a major factor as well. This is a squad that has yielded a mere, 17.3 points per game, and ranks fourth against the pass. They are going to get a lot of pressure on Allen and force him to make mistakes. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Detroit Lions.

NFC North Game of the Month.

Game 478.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Detroit currently has the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoff picture. But does have an opportunity to step up to the No. 2 seed with a win here and some help. The Vikings playoffs chances are basically hanging on by a thread. Now normally I would be a little apprehensive about a game like this. But Detroit head coach, Dan Campbell announced he will be playing quarterback, Jared Goff, and his starters in this contest. For how long, who knows. But they want this win. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road to Dallas by one-point. That ended a two game straight up win streak. But did extend their ATS cover streak to three consecutive games. They don't want to go into the postseason on a two-game slide. They need a big ego boost here. And what better team to face than their hated division rival, which happens to be on a three-game slide straight up themselves. As a matter fact, they've lost five of their last six straight up. failing to cover five straight. One thing for sure, with the announcement that Nick Mullins will start at quarterback for the Vikings, you can expect the Lions to throw a lot of different schemes at him with their very talented defense. On the flipside of the ball, Goff is going to have his best performance of the regular season because most of Minnesota secondary is either banged-up or out here. FYI, Detroit has taken three of the last four meetings in this series straight up and six in a row against the number. Take the Lions. Thank you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

NFC South Game of the Month.

Game 479.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Tampa Bay controls their destiny here folks. In other words, they win and they are in the playoffs. Let's throw away the fact the Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as a visitor this season. Let's throw away the fact Carolina has been eliminated from any postseason chances quite a while back. Throw away the fact that this home team is just 2-14, which is the worst record in the NFL this season. And throw away the fact that Carolina is also just 1-4 SU against division opponents this season. The Buccaneers are a smart, well-coached, disciplined squad, certainly outclassing their opponent in this matchup. They were riding a four-game straight up win streak prior to last weeks, 23-13 loss on the road at the Saints. But did extend their ATS cover streak to three in a row. They have dominated this division rivalry, taking eight of the last 10 meetings, straight up, and covering seven of those 10 matchups. The Panthers aren't going to jeopardize any of their significant starters here. And let's face it, even if they were going to play all out, they just don't have the personnel to contend here. If they did, they wouldn't have finished this season with the worst record in football. Take the Buccaneers. Thank you.

Houston Texans on the Money line.

NFL Consensus Game of the Week.

Game 469.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 PM EST.

It seems as though every year during the last week of the regular season, you need graphs, charts, and diagrams to understand which teams need victories, which teams are eliminated, and which teams could certainly better their playoff situation. This game is very simple, a win and you will be in the postseason. Now there is a game being played earlier in the Jaguars/Titans matchup. If the Jaguars win, they take the division. If they lose, and the Texans win, Houston will take the division. Let me start off with something that really stuck out to me…the Texans are 7-0 ATS their last seven division road games. That is huge my friends. Quarterback, CJ Stroud has led this team to their first winning season since 2019. Now they want a playoff berth. In last week’s, 26-3 win at home against the Titans, the offense showed no signs of rust as Stroud made his return. The offensive line also looks very sharp, only allowing one sack. I see the Rookie of the Year candidate putting up some of his best numbers of the season here against a very vulnerable, Colts secondary. Indianapolis also ranks 27th in the league against the rush. That means Devin Singletary will get a lot of touches here and move the chains on the ground with his legs, opening up Stroud and the passing game. Defensively, Houston matches up well here with Indianapolis. I see a real mismatch in this contest. Oh, one more item, the Texans also have revenge as a motivator as they dropped the first meeting with the Colts back in mid-September at home. The line is moving between a -1.0 and a -1.5. So just err on the side of caution, take Houston on the money line. Thank you.

Play LA.

Los Angeles needs victories right now. And let's be honest, this is a team that has turned it up when they needed to, winning five of their last six straight up, and five straight against the spread. Word has come down that New York is basically throwing in the towel here, as many of their starters are going to be sidelined in place of backups. The Rams need the game, while the Giants have already made January vacation reservations. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Play Dallas.

Having suffered back-to-back losses for the first time this season, the Dallas Cowboys return home and get back on track. They are a perfect 7–0 at AT&T Stadium this season, covering six of those games. As far as Detroit goes, I think they're a very good team. However, every time they need to step up in class, they truly let us down. I'm not saying they are posers. I'm just saying they can't win in crunch time. Take the Cowboys. Thank you.

Los Angeles Rams.

Game 324.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

Following their three-game straight up win streak, Los Angeles lost a heartbreaker last week on the road at Baltimore, however, extending their ATS cover run to three consecutive outings. The Rams sit at 6-7 and need wins right now. After this week’s matchup with the Commanders, they have a home game against the Saints, before finishing up the regular season on the road at the Giants, and then the 49ers. This is a team that certainly controls its own destiny. As far as Washington goes, they have now dropped four in a row straight up, and three straight against the spread. Possessing the NFL's worst defense in total yards, passing yards, and points allowed, it is evident that this game will be a nightmare. During their four-game slide, the commanders have allowed 29, 31, 45, and 45 points. Look for Matthew Stafford, who has accounted for 10 TD’s and just one INT over the last three games, to light up the leagues poorest secondary, while Kyren Williams keeps the Washington defense honest on the ground. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

Atlanta Falcons.

Game 307.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The NFC South has three teams tied at 6-7 and one team bringing up the rear, at 1-12. With last week’s loss at home against Tampa Bay, Atlanta dropped from the number four seed in the NFC, all the way down to the number 10 seed. The Falcons need every victory they can get right now. And what better team to face than the Panthers. Carolina is only one of two teams in the NFL eliminated from any chance at postseason play.  possess the worst record in all the football at 1-12. And as far as sportsbetting is concerned, they've only covered two games in 2023. Atlanta comes into this matchup a little angry and looking for a vengeance after letting their two-game win and cover streak come to an end a week ago. Surely, they are very confident here, knowing they took down Carolina back in early September, 24-10. I just don't see the Panthers, which rank 30th in the league in scoring, and during their current six-game slide has averaged a dismal, 11.6 points per game, keeping pace on the scoreboard here. It's just might be Atlanta’s biggest offensive output this season. Take the Falcons. Thank you.

Philadelphia Eagles.

Game 127.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

My friends, there is no question that these are two of the best teams in football. They just happen to both be NFC representatives. And also, both share the NFC East division. This game has serious implications down the road, for sure. The Philadelphia Eagles own an NFL-best, 10-2 record. The Dallas Cowboys are at 9-3. There are only two other teams in the NFC at 9-3, the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers. As far as us sports bettors go, Philadelphia is 6-3-3 ATS this season, while Dallas is 8-4 overall against the number on the campaign. The Eagles are money on the road, going 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS as a visitor in 2023. But it's hard to ignore the fact the Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 straight up at AT&T Stadium this season, covering five of their six games played as host. But even more than that, Dallas is riding a 14-game straight up home winning streak, which happens to be the second-longest in franchise history. Philly took a November 5 meeting at home over Dallas, 28-23 to give the team two wins and covers over the last three meetings with their division rival. The Eagles, who got caught, looking in a mid-October contest on the road at the New York Jets, just suffered their most embarrassing defeat in quite a while, losing 42-19 to the 49ers on national TV. This isn't a team that takes losing lightly, sports fans. I expect them to bounce back here and make a statement against a team they know very well. Not only that, this victory would certainly give them control over the Division. Remember, this is a team chock full of talent on both sides of the ball. Put a pin in that we're gonna’ come back around to it in a moment. They have manhandled just about every opponent they have faced this season, including some of the NFL elite (Miami, Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo). As far as Dallas goes, they have been one of the most exciting teams in the 2023 regular season. They're currently riding a four-game SU hot streak, covering three of the four. However, I've got to tell you, a lot of their wins have been against subpar opponents. Looking at their schedule thus far, they beat all the teams they should've beaten. But a late-September road loss at the hands of Arizona, throws up a red flag to me. And they did get embarrassed a few weeks later on the road at San Francisco. Other than the 49ers and the Eagles (games they both lost), they haven't faced too many of the Leagues powerhouse opponents. During their current hot run, they took down the New York Giants, the Carolina Panthers, and the Washington Commanders (a combined record of 9-28) before last week’s, 41-35 squeaker over the Seattle Seahawks. As far as injuries, both teams are relatively healthy at major positions as of this post. Both quarterbacks are seasoned, both possessing the luxury of an arsenal of receivers, and both running backs are outstanding. Statistically, the Cowboys own better numbers, both offensively and defensively. And on paper, they look like the better team. However, I think we can all agree that football is not played on paper. It is played on the gridiron. The Cowboys have an explosive passing attack and can exploit the sometimes, leaky Eagles secondary. However, Dallas’ offensive success relies upon their ability to run the ball to open up the passing game. And they're going to have a lot of problems here, moving the chains on the ground against the NFL’s stout, fourth-ranked rush defense. And at times on defense, the Cowboys stop-unit struggles come the second half against solid ground attacks. And the Eagles certainly have a solid ground attack. They rank eighth in the League, averaging over 126.0 yards per game on the ground. A combination of the Cowboys not facing a high-level of opponents this season along with the Eagles needing to bounce back and make a statement after last week’s loss, and throw in the fact, I just don't like Dak Prescott in big game situations, compels me to take the points here. Jalen Hurts has proven he can succeed in must-win games, while Prescott has not. Speaking of the points, the +3.5 is huge here. Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Pittsburgh Steelers om the moneyline.

Game 259.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Pittsburgh has a chance to better themselves in the Division, while putting some distance between them and the disappointing, AFC North’s last-place squad, the Cincinnati team. They have done well when facing Division opponents this season, going 2-1 SU, while the Bengals have failed to win any meetings against AFC North opponents thus far in the 2023 regular season. The Bengals have had a few extra days to rest and prepare. But it won't matter. There is certainly a fire under the Steelers backsides, as this week, head coach, Mike Tomlin fired offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, and replaced him with Eddie Faulkner. Quarterback, Kenny Pickett will be at the helm, with the luxury of Najee Harris, heading up the ground attack. Say what you want about Pittsburgh’s statistics, but you can't argue with the 60.5% completion rate for the QB, or the fact he heads an offense that ranks second in the league, committing just eight turnovers. This will be the game that Pickett will put up his best numbers, facing the League’s, 27th ranked pass defense. But it won't stop there as the ground game will be very successful lining up against the NFL’s 30th ranked rushing defense. We all know Jake Browning will be the starter for the Bengals. He took his first significant snaps more than a week ago in a loss on the road at Baltimore. Despite having a solid workhorse in the backfield in Joe Mixon, the offense ranks 30th in the League on the ground. Without a solid, rushing attack, the Cincinnati offense is in real trouble here. Pittsburgh will exact a bit of revenge as they have lost and failed to cover four of the last five meetings in this heated rivalry. I know the Steelers are on the road and laying a small number here. I believe they will dominate this contest. But just to err on the side of caution, take the Steelers on the money line. Thank you.

San Francisco 49ers.

Game 109.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

My friends, currently following the Monday Night contest, the Eagles possess the best record in the NFC, at 9-1, followed by the Detroit Lions at 8-2, then at 7-3, sits the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers started off the season winning their first five outings, covering four of the five. Then they suffered a three-game slide in which they were crushed by injuries. I don't think it's a coincidence that as they’ve gotten healthy, they've won their last two games. This is a team that I feel is one of the best in the National Football League. After this week, they take a little hiatus until a December 3 meeting on the road at the Philadelphia Eagle's. I don't see them overlooking the Seattle Seahawks or being in a lookahead spot at all. They must take this game very seriously. They have to. They have a few extra days off to rest, heal, and prepare for their biggest matchup of the season in their next game. I know the Seattle Seahawks are getting some money put on them here in Vegas (as of post). For the life of me, I don't see why. They were beaten in their last outing by the Los Angeles Rams, 17-16. They allowed Los Angeles to put up 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to lose the game very late. This isn't just a reflection of their roster and personnel, it is a reflection of the coaching staff as well. Please understand that the 49ers have won both of their divisional games this season. They took both NFC West games in 2023 thus far: on the road at the Rams in mid-September, then a few weeks later at the beginning of October at home against the Cardinals. As far as the Seahawks go, their quarterback, Geno Smith, banged up his elbow in Sunday's loss. As of Tuesday morning, posting this play, he is questionable. I feel he's going to play. Whether he does or it's back up, Drew Lock, I don't think it matters. They will be going to go up against the NFL's top-ranked scoring defense. San Francisco allows just 15.7 points per game and have already snagged 19 takeaways. That does not bode well for a Seattle offense that's already coughed up the ball 11 times. Let's face it, their offensive unit is mediocre at best. They are horrible at running the ball and middle of the pack at throwing the ball. But either way, they are overmatched with a fast, ferocious, and furious San Francisco stop-unit. On the defensive side, they are facing a top-10 offense, both on the ground and in the air. Let's face it, the 49ers offensive unit has gotten healthy and are truly dangerous. I feel this team should be a favorite of nearly double-digits. So, laying right now less than a touchdown is an early Christmas present. Oh, by the way, San Fran took all three meetings last season, both SU and ATS. Take San Francisco. Thank you.

Minnesota Vikings.

Game 473.

5:20 PM PST/8:20 PM EST.

Guys, I've worked in every facet of this business. I spent several years working in line services. And even worked alongside the original Vegas odds makers. I'm pretty good at creating lines for games. And yet, for the life of me, I just don't see the line the odds makers put on this game. It looks like a trap to me. I have the Minnesota Vikings 1.0 to 1.5 points favorites here. This is currently the hottest team in the NFL, winning and covering five in a row and six of their last seven. As a matter fact, they have covered 5 straight road games. Is this all because Kirk cousins is out? My friends, he's been out for quite a while. Joshua Dobbs has done a very good job filling in at the helm. And their defense has certainly been much-improved. Maybe the odds makers made the line what it is because the Broncos are riding their own three-game win and cover streak. But let's face it, they beat a subpar Packers opponent, happen to catch the Chiefs at the right time, and come off a road win against the struggling Bills. Granted, two of those three teams are known as NFL elite. But I think they have just been very lucky. I feel Dobbs is going to have an enormous amount of success in the air here. I also feel they're going to establish the run against the NFL's worst rush defense. You know overall, the once-feared Denver “D” ranks dead last in points allowed this season, getting plowed for over 27.6 points per game. Meanwhile, offensively, I don't see them moving the chains as easily as they have against their last few opponents. Please remember that prior to the current win streak, the Broncos failed to cover their first five games of this season. The wrong team is favored. Take Minnesota. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Game 472.

1:25 PM, PST/4:25 PM EST.

Where to begin...hmm. For starters, this is definitely a disappointing season for the Buffalo Bills. They sit in second place in the AFC East at 5-5. This was a team touted to definitely be in the AFC Title game. Having said that, they began the 2023/2024 campaign off with a big nationally television broadcast loss back on September 11 on the road at the New York Jets. This was a very well publicized game. If you recall, Aaron Rodgers went down in the first series for New York. Everybody gasped, everybody said that's it for the Jets, and everybody said the Buffalo Bills will crush them here tonight. Well, that didn't happen. Following that loss, the Bills then rattled off three consecutive wins and covers. But have since gone just 2-4 straight up and 0-6 ATS.  They come off an embarrassing home defeat to the Denver Broncos. This is a team that does not take a losing lightly. This is a team that especially does not losing in front of their loyal fans. They must kickstart the season with the win here, or they are in dire straits. So, this brings me to my next point...revenge. They don't like losing period. They furthermore don't like losing to Conference opponents. And to go one further, they especially do not like losing to Division opponents. They've had this rematch circled since the opening season lost. The New York Jets are horrible. They lost their last two and failed to cover their last three. Their offense is nonexistent. To be quite honest, they haven't scored a touchdown in 36 straight drives as quarterback Zach Wilson has only thrown one touchdown in his last five games. Over the last two contests, they have zero touchdowns, while Wilson has been sacked 10 times. This does not bode well as they face a very angry Bills defense looking for a little redemption. You know overall the Buffalo's stop-unit still ranks fifth in points allowed, yielding just 18.4 PPG. Offensively, they still score quite a bit, ranking eighth and averaging over 26.2 points per game. If Buffalo is going to get their season back on track, they must start with a big revenge win here. Take the Bills. Thank you.

New York Jets.

Game 476.

5:15 PM PST/8:15 EST.

Very simply, I feel the wrong team is favored here. On my two sets of power ratings, I have New York a 2.0-point favorite at a 4.3-point favorite. For starters, the Chargers are not the best road team. They have won just one game straight up on the road since January 1. They've also covered just one game on the road since January 1. They have to face a Jets team that have won three in a row straight up, and are just a half-point away from covering their last four outings. During their current win streak, their defense has allowed just 15.0 points per game, while their offense has stepped up to account for 21.3 points for game during the hot streak. Zach Wilson is showing significant signs of improvement and leadership, which does not bode well for a Los Angeles defense that ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass. Meanwhile, the erratic Chargers offensive unit, which solely relies upon the pass, lines up against the League’s fifth-ranked, pass defense and it's eighth overall stop-unit in points allowed. As I mentioned at the beginning of this analysis, I think the wrong team is favored in. Take the Jets. Thank you.

Cowboys/Eagles OVER.

NFL BOOKIE BUSTER OF THE WEEK.

Games 471/472.

Sunday, November 5, 2023.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

The Cowboys and Eagles are two of the best teams in the NFC. They just happen to also be in the same division, the NFC East. Normally, this is one of the most competitive divisions in football. However, so far this season, these two teams are separating themselves from the rest of the pack. Philadelphia sits at 7-1, the best overall record in the NFC. Just behind them is Dallas at 5-2. FYI, two other NFC teams also own a 5-2 record, Detroit and Seattle. As of posting this play, these two teams are two of the highest-scoring teams in all of football as the Cowboys average over 28.1 points per game, while the Eagles account for 28.0 points per game. Both offenses are well-balanced: equally strong on the ground as they are in the air. Granted, these are two of the stronger defenses in the league. But my friends their last five meetings have all gone over the total. Four of the Cowboys last six contests coming into this matchup have gone over the total, while Philly just comes off a 69-point contest against Washington. Both teams need this victory. And both teams match up well with the others. You will see quarterback, Dak Prescott exploit the 26th ranked pass defense of the Philly, while the leagues seventh ranked rushing attack of Eagles will exploit the Cowboys lax run defense. Expect a lot of scoring here. Take the over. Thank you.

Under in the NYG/LV matchup.

Games 469/470.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

On one side to side of the field, you've got starting quarterback, Daniel Jones, returning to an offense that averages just 11.9 points per game. However, the Giants defense have certainly stepped up lately, allowing the bills the score just 14, the Commanders to put up just 7, and the Jets to account for just 13 points. On the other side of the field, it's reported that Aiden O'Connell will start. He heads up the 30th ranked scoring offense in the NFL here, which averages a mere 15.8 points per game. And let's face it, I've seen more action on a field than he has. Lol. These two teams have combined to play three overs and 13 unders this season. They only met once in recent years. And that was in November of 2021, when the game went under the total. Take the Under. Thank you.

Minnesota Vikings on the moneyline.

NFC NORTH GOM.

Game 267.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM ET.

It may be just the end of October, but my friends, this game has serious implications down the road. The Detroit Lions are in first place in the NFC North at 5-2. They have a Monday Night matchup at home against the Las Vegas Raiders this week. Sitting in second place is the Minnesota Vikings at 3-4. Third place sees the the Green Bay Packers at 2-4. And bringing up the rear at 2-5, is the Chicago Bears. If Minnesota wins, they pick up a few games on Green Bay. If Green Bay wins, they leapfrog Minnesota. Having said all that the Vikings are starting to stride. They have won and covered their last two outings: on the road at the Bears, the game wasn't as close as their 19-13 victory. Then at home last week as an underdog, they manhandled the 49ers. That game gave them their third ATS cover over their last four contests. Meanwhile, Green Bay is now riding a three-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. The Vikings are also looking for a little payback here. They're looking for revenge from last January’s, 41-17 beat down at the hands of the Packers.  Granted, Green Bay has a pretty good best defense. However, not too many have been able to slow down, let alone, stop the third-ranked passing unit of Minnesota. On the flipside, the mistake-prone Jordan Love (seven INT's) is in trouble here as he goes up against the very stingy, very nasty, defense of Minnesota that has already snagged 10 takeaways. This line is going up and down a little bit. Just the err on the side of caution, take the Vikings on the money line. Thank you.

Green Bay Packers on the moneyline.

BEST BET.

Game 469.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Does anyone remember when the Denver defense was feared? It seems like years have passed since those days. But it all sincerity, they were supposed to be a force to be reckoned with this year. And yet this team is 1-5 SU, failing to cover a single outing yet in the 2023/2024 campaign. Not only that, but their so called, “stop- unit” ranks dead last in the League. That's right, they are 32nd in points allowed (33.3 PPG), 30th in passing yards allowed (268.0 PY), 32nd in rushing yards allowed (172.3), and their offense has twice as many turnovers as their defense has takeaways (11/5). Because their “D” is so overworked and tired, their “O”, which was never a great offense, let's face it, is absolutely horrible. They rank in the bottom half in the NFL in every major category. Mind you, Green Bay, at 2-3, isn't all that great either. But I think we can all agree that they’ve been a bit more competitive this season, than many thought. And for us, sports bettor's, they have covered three of their five outings. The status of starting running back, Aaron Jones is still uncertain as of this post (check status). However, if he does not play, AJ Dillon has proved he can step in and contribute without missing a beat. And let's face it, as I mentioned earlier, the Denver defense ranks dead last against the run. The ability to move the chains on the ground will certainly open up the passing game for Jordan Love. Russell Wilson's numbers are horrible, ranking 27th in a league with a QBR of 39.8. He will have another long day here, going up against the much-improved, ninth-ranked pass defense of Green Bay. In my opinion, the Packers should be a favorite in this matchup of anywhere from 1.5-3.0. If you recall in the beginning of this breakdown, I mentioned about anybody remembering when the Broncos defense was feared. Here's another question I post to you; does anyone remember when playing at home was a must play on Denver? It seems like it was just yesterday that playing at Mile High was a definite play on the home team. Well, this team has failed to cover all three games played at Empower Field this season. Take Green Bay on the moneyline. Thank you.

Los Angeles Rams.

TEN DIMES PLAY.

Game 272.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Covering their first three games of the season, Arizona was shaping up to be an under the radar ATS moneymaker. But when October arrived, the Cardinals fell back down to Earth, going 0-2, both straight up and against the spread as underdogs of 14.5 and 3.0 points. On the other hand, the Rams just might be the best sub .500 team in the League right now. And if they're going to take it up a notch, this is the matchup to kick it off. They have dominated their division foe, taking eight of their last 10 meetings, both SU and ATS. Arizona's only true offensive weapon, running back, James Conner is out, dealing a critical blow to the team. Reports are L.A. star wide receiver, Cooper Kupp will be a major factor here in his second game back from injury. Kupp, in his first game back from injury, a week ago, had eight receptions for 118 yards. The cobwebs have been shaken off now. Expect the Stafford/Kupp connection to pick apart the 26th ranked pass defense of ‘Zona in one of my highest-rated plays on the board this week. Take the Rams. Thank you.  

Philadelphia Eagles.

Consensus play.

Game 273.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

Only one of two undefeated teams left this season, Philadelphia is truly scary. Why? Because we still haven't seen their "A" game. With a meeting with Miami, up next, you can expect them to stay focused here. Granted, New York has a stellar rushing attack, behind running back, Breece Hall. But the Eagles counter with the No. 1 "D" in the NFL vs. the run. With a potentially limited ground game to crutch on, quarterback, Zach Wilson and the 32nd ranked passing "O" of the Jets is in real trouble here. They will not be able to exploit the Eagles, shaky secondary. Philly is money on the road, with a 3-0 ATS mark as a guest this season. In a huge mismatch, the 2nd ranked rushing attack of the Eagles, will shred the NFL’s 29th ranked rush defense of the Jets. Yes, overall, the NY stop-unit owns some solid statistics. But when facing well-balanced offenses (Dallas 30, Kansas City 23) they are very beatable. FYI, I give a “mulligan” to Buffalo on that first game of the season against NYJ (lol). Take Philadelphia. Thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs.

High Roller.

Game 471.

1:25 pm pst/4:25 pm est.

Following their season-opening loss in which they were shorthanded for sure, Kansas City has now rattled off three consecutive wins, going 2-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, Minnesota opened the season up going 0-3, both straight up against the spread, but came up with a big win last week on the road at Carolina to also earn their first cover of the campaign. But I've got to be honest, my friends, their defense has been absolutely atrocious and beating the Panthers is no big achievement. A big mistake made by sports bettor's out there is judging a team by their previous performance. I can tell you the Chiefs did not play their best game last week when they did eke by the Jets on the road. This is a game they have to get back on track, get all their ducks in a row, and get their foot on the gas. Facing an inexperienced quarterback that just can't seem to get a grasp of the NFL in Bryce Young is a far cry from going up against the most accomplished quarterback in the league today in Patrick Mahomes. Don't expect the Vikings defense to have the same success here this week at all. As a matter of fact, they are in for a huge let down for sure. On the opposite side of the ball, the Kansas City defense has really been superb, allowing just 15.0 points per game. My friends, please remember that the Vikings offense ranks dead least in the league in turnovers. I expect that number to skyrocket and for them to keep their 32nd ranking in tact after this contest. I look for this game to get out of hand. Take Kansas City. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

No Limit

Game 452.

6:30 AM PST/9:30 AM EST.

Guys, I am well aware that Jacksonville has become a fan favorite in London. And they did not have to travel last week following their win against Atlanta across the pond. But Buffalo has revenge in their eyes. These two teams met at Wembley stadium in 2015 when the Jaguars came out victorious, 34-31. Losing doesn't sit well with the Bills. Speaking of the team, following their season-opening embarrassing loss on national TV to a jets team minus Aaron Rodgers, the team has now won and covered three consecutive outings against some solid competition. In all sincerity, the Jaguars haven't had to face an opponent as complete as the Bills yet this season. Trevor Lawrence is struggling. And now has to line up against one of the most ferocious stop-units in the NFL. As a matter fact, Buffalo ranks fourth against the pass sixth in total yards allowed, second in points scored, and first in takeaways, snagging 11 already. And now that Josh Allen is back on track and doing what he does, I see him absolutely dissecting the 21st ranked pass defense of Jacksonville. This game is going to get out of hand while Buffalo gets their revenge. Take the Bills. Thank you.

Dallas Cowboys.

Consensus Play.

Game 274.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 EST.

My friends, I think the line is a little off here. I think it should be closer to a -9 or even -10. Yes, I know Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots got a win    ND cover last week on the road against the Jets. But haven’t they beat them like 15 straight times? Let’s look at their performance prior to last week when they beat a Jets team with a shaky quarterback. They opened up the season losing, 25-20 at home against Philadelphia, and then followed it up also at home, losing to Miami, 24-17. Last week’s win and cover was a rarity. That was their first win since January 1. And that was the first cover since December 12 of last year. I know “the Hoodie” is an amazing coach. But he just doesn’t have the personnel any more, my friends. Let’s look at Dallas. They opened up the campaign annihilating the New York Giants on the road, 40-0, then followed that up with a Week 2 win at home against the New York Jets, 30-10. Last week as an 11-point favorite, they lost outright on the road to Arizona, 28-16. This is a perfect “bounce back” situation for the Cowboys. I know they took a serious blow when they lost CB, Trevon Diggs. But this team is loaded and they have a lot of play makers on defense. I mean they rank third in points allowed, yielding just 12.7 points per game. They’ve already snagged seven takeaways as well. They are a little bit better against the pass than they are against the rush. But let’s face it, the New England 26th ranked scoring offense…to put it very simply, is lackluster. I doubt Mac Jones will have any success in the air here, even without Diggs in the secondary. And in all sincerity, their rushing attack isn’t very threatening. Defensively, they put up some decent numbers overall. But they did give up 25 points to the Eagles and 24 points to the Dolphins. Last week when they only allowed the Jets to put up 10 points…well guys, that’s the Jets. I see Dallas bouncing back with authority here getting the win and cover at home. By the way, the Patriots are just 1-3 ATS their last four on the road, while the Cowboys are 7-2 ATS their last nine games played in their house. Take Dallas. Thank you.

Cleveland Browns on the moneyline.

NO LIMIT Play.

Game 260.

Sunday, October 1, 2023.

10:00 AM PST/1:00PM PM EST.

The Cincinnati Bengals were predicted to run away with the AFC North. After three games into the regular season, they dwell in the division cellar at 1-2. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns are all tied at 2-1. This past Monday night, the Bengals eked by the Rams, 19-16, still not showing much. This upcoming week Cincinnati will go up against Tennessee, while Pittsburgh faces Houston. This is an ideal opportunity for Cleveland to beat a division rival and make a statement to the rest of the AFC North. This is an interesting matchup as the Browns have won and covered two of the last three meetings with the Ravens, which includes the most recent matchup, last December, 13-3. Losing running back, Nick Chubb is a significant blow to Cleveland. They did pick up a well-known face in ball-carrier, Kareem Hunt last week to combine with RB, Jerome Ford. However, their ground game really couldn’t get it going in their 27-3 victory at home against Tennessee. They must establish the run here. And I feel they will. It seems each year they possess one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL. One thing for sure, they can still score points. They have accounted for 24.3 points per game thus far this season. And when you have Deshaun Watson as your quarterback, you know he’s going to also keep defenses honest with his legs. No matter what, their defense once again is ferocious. As of post, they rank number one in overall yards allowed, number one passing yards allowed, number two in rushing yards allowed, and number one in points allowed. The stop-unit is the reason why they have won two games already. Their offense did cough the ball up quite a bit through Games 1 and 2. But reports are head coach, Kevin Stefanski was pleased after this past Sunday’s victory as Watson did not throw any INT’s and the team only lost one fumble. They are definitely improving. The Ravens, despite a winning record, have looked quite lackluster this season. They took down the Texans, and did beat a banged-up, Joe Burrow and the Bengals on the road. But just couldn’t do anything right against the mediocre, Colts this past weekend, losing 22-19. I think they are in real trouble here this upcoming week. Just looking at last week’s numbers, Lamar Jackson, accounted for 303 of their 364 total yards of offense. Facing a defense like they are going to face this week I feel Jackson’s numbers will plummet. The Browns DC, Jim Schwartz is a pretty sharp guy, and he certainly has the personnel to throw a lot of different schemes at Jackson and force mistakes. Going back to last season, Cleveland is 5-1, both straight and against the spread their last six games played at home. Playing at Cleveland Browns Stadium, in front of some of the loudest, rowdiest, and most loyal fans, against a hated rival is going to be an added factor for the Browns here. There is no love lost between these teams. I feel the Ravens are in big trouble. Just in case the number moves, take Cleveland on the money line. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills on the money line.

Bookie Buster.

Game 254.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

Guys, last week I was all over Miami in their 70-20 blowout at home against Denver. Yes, it’s true, they have won all three of their outings this year, both straight up and against the spread. And going back to last year, they have covered six consecutive outings. But after last week’s massacre, they are in a huge “letdown” mode here as they must face the very dangerous Buffalo bills. I know the Dolphins play the Bills very tough, as all three of last year’s matchups we’re settled by three or less points. However, there is no place for Miami to go but down following last week’s performance. Please understand this will be the Dolphins third road trip in the last four weeks. And playing up in Orchard Park is always a tough task for any visitor. Their season-opening loss on the road on Monday Night Football to the Jets without Aaron Rodgers, motivated the Bills to then go out and destroy the Raiders at home, 38-10, and then go on the road and shred the Commanders, 37-3. That Week 1 MNF game raised a lot of concerns about Josh Allen and the team in general, as they turned the ball over again and again. However, their last two contests, they’ve only coughed the ball up once. And their defense has really stepped up.Miami’s statistics are a bit skewed due to their blow out of Denver last week. In just about every offensive category, they top the NFL. But they’ve also turned the ball over three times on offense against some less than stellar defenses. And to be quite honest, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. This is by far the best offense and the best defense they have had to face yet this season. Buffalo ranks second in the league in scoring and second in the league in points allowed. I doubt very much the Dolphins will be able to slow down Josh Allen and the juggernaut, which is the Bills “O”. On the flipside, the Buffalo stop-unit has looked absolutely ferocious, topping the league with nine takeaways, and only allowing 11.7 points per game. The clock strikes midnight for Cinderella here and the carriage will turn back in to a pumpkin. Just in case the line moves, let’s err on the side of caution and play Buffalo on the money line. Thank you.

Buffalo Bills.

Ten Dimes.

Game 463.

10:00 AM PST/1:00 PM EST.

The Buffalo Bills have extremely high expectations again this season. They are tired of being a bridesmaid. Following their season-opening loss to the Jets, sans Aaron Rodgers, they bounced back last week to absolutely crush the Raiders. Not only did their defense step up, play strong, and create turnovers, but Josh Allen played mistake free football. Great effort from running back, James Cook as well. Going back to Allen, he really wants to shake the reputation of being mistake-prone. I understand the Washington Commanders are off to a 2-0 start. But before we begin handing out Lombardi Trophies to Ron Rivera and his team, let’s please remember that this team has a lackluster offense, and a defense that sprung a lot of leaks a season ago. Their supposed “stop-unit” allowed the lackluster, Denver Broncos “O” to post 33 points on them last week.  Quarterback, Sam Howell has a whopping, three starts at this level under his belt. And trust me when I tell you, none of the defenses he had to lineup against were as tough, as talented, or as angry as a defense he’s going to face this week. That Week 1 loss the Buffalo Bills experienced will not only make them a better team, it will make them a team looking for vengeance. They outclass the Washington Commanders in every aspect of the game. Lay the points with Buffalo. Thank you.

Las Vegas Raiders.

NFL ANGLE PLAY.

Game 471.

1:25 PM PST/4:25 PM EST.

With a new quarterback at the helm and signing their running back to a long-term deal, the Las Vegas Raiders are entering the 2023 regular season with excitement. Many out there will say the same for the Denver Broncos. However, an aging quarterback with a lackluster offense, which in turn had their defense spending too much time on the field last season and springing leaks, I feel this team is in trouble. For the Raiders, what better team to face than the Broncos. For us sports bettors, they have covered nine of the last 10 meetings, going back to September, 2018. They have also won eight of the last 10 straight up, which includes six consecutive matchups with their division rival. Jimmy Garoppolo had a 40-17 regular season record as a starter in six seasons with the San Francisco 49ers. He’s got some big receivers, including superstar wideout, Davante Adams. In the backfield, Josh Jacobs, who had 1,653 yards rushing a season ago is a workhorse. With a solid passing game and an incredible ground attack, this offense is going to be very hard to defend. Speaking of defense, Las Vegas certainly beefed up their stop-unit in the off-season. Let’s face it, Wilson is not the quarterback he once was. He doesn’t have the legs as he did in his youth. And without a solid ground attack, I feel the Broncos “O” is going to struggle once again this season. On paper, it looks like Denver has edges both overall on the roster and in coaching. But the last time this team beat the Raiders by more than one-point on their home field, was back in 2017. Playing in Mile High doesn’t offer the big advantage it once did. If you recall a season ago, the Broncos failed to cover four of their first five at home. This is way too many points to give a very hungry visitor, which has had their way in this series for years. By the way, Denver has failed to cover six straight as a divisional home favorite. Take Las Vegas. Thank you.