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AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*).

Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Not to oversimplify things but I don't think the Cardinals are a very good football team. Meanwhile, Seattle remains as underrated a team as you'll find in the NFL, even off last week's impressive win over the Giants. The Seahawks have already handled the Cardinals once and while Arizona now has WR DeAndre Hopkins at its disposal, I'm not convinced his presence is enough to turn the tide in this rematch. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker has been a massive get for the Seahawks with the injury to Rashaad Penny proving to be a blessing in disguise. That's not to mention the departure of Russell Wilson which has given Geno Smith a run at redemption and he's taken full advantage. Plus we have a Seattle defense that is seemingly getting stronger with each passing week. Take Seattle (10*).

Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel bettors are overreacting to the Bears dealing Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith away prior to the trade deadline. I think Chicago's ugly 12-7 home loss to Washington three games back was something of a watershed moment for the team. Since then, they've put up 62 points in splitting a pair of games against New England and Dallas. They made a move to acquire WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline and while he's unlikely to make an immediate impact here, I do think the Bears offense can feast on a still-undermanned Dolphins secondary. Too many points for the home side here. Take Chicago (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

No one is giving the Texans any sort of chance at springing the upset against the undefeated Eagles on Thursday night. While I'm not about to predict Houston will win this game outright, I do think it can keep within arm's reach for four quarters against Philadelphia. The Eagles had no trouble laying waste to the Steelers on Sunday. That was a far worse defensive team than they'll face on Thursday, however. The Texans actually have some semblance of a pass defense led by rookie corner Derek Stingley. For the Eagles to keep their undefeated record intact I think they'll need to involve their ground attack heavily, effectively shortening this game which plays into our hands with two touchdowns in our back pocket with the Texans. Houston looked lifeless against Tennessee last Sunday as they were mercilessly run all over by RB Derrick Henry. The Eagles don't possess that type of bruising, relentless back. RB Miles Sanders will get his, but again, I'm not anticipating the same sort of beatdown on the Texans defensive front. Offensively, Houston has a workhorse to lean on in the form of RB Dameon Pierce and you can run on these Eagles as they've allowed just shy of 5.0 yards per rush and just lost key run-stopper, nose tackle Jordan Davis to an ankle injury. Like the Eagles, I feel the Texans offensive gameplan will work to shorten this game with several long, clock-churning drives. Note that the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests after winning consecutive games ATS. Meanwhile, the Texans have been listed as underdogs of between 10.5 and 14 points just twice over the last three seasons, covering the number on both of those occasions. Take Houston (10*).

Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Celtic +2 goals over Real Madrid at 1:45 pm et on Wednesday.

Real Madrid blanked Celtic 3-0 when these two squads met in early September. While the Scottish side's hopes of advancing to the final 16 have been dashed, I do expect it to still put up a better fight as these two take part in a return match in Madrid on Wednesday. Celtic enters this contest having gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. To illustrate its fine form, it has struck first in each of those five contests while carrying a lead into halftime in four of them. This will obviously be a stiff challenge for Celtic as Real Madrid searches for a victory to wrap up first place in Group F. With that being said, the Spanish side will be without Karim Benzema and might not have its usual fresh legs here in Champions League action, noting that it just wrapped up a month of October that featured nine fixtures. While Celtic have nothing to play for in this particular tournament, there is the matter of pride and after being shut out at the hands of Real Madrid on home soil two months ago, I'm confident we'll see it rise to the occasion here. It's worth noting that to find the last time Celtic lost a match by 3+ goals, you would have to go all the way back to that previous date with Madrid. Take Celtic +2 goals (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*).

Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I see this as a smash spot for the Lions, particularly on offense, as they check in starved for a positive outcome following four consecutive losses including back-to-back road losses against the Patriots and Cowboys in which they scored a grand total of six points. Something has to give in this matchup as the Dolphins enter riding an 0-4 ATS skid while the Lions have dropped the cash in three consecutive games. The Fins will be out of their element playing in a domed environment, noting that they'll be looking forward to flipping the calendar page having gone a miserable 0-8 ATS in their last eight October games. There were certainly a lot of positives for Miami to take away from last Sunday night's 16-10 victory over the Steelers. However, I didn't like the way their offense stagnated and I did feel their secondary and defense as a whole looked vulnerable, missing a number of key parts and suffering yet another injury blow with strong safety Brandon Jones tearing his ACL. Keep in mind, this was already a defense that was without Xavien Howard's running mate, Byron Jones and slot corner Nik Needham. Howard could be left on an island in this one and he's been dealing with nagging groin and quad injuries all season long (he missed practice to start the week once again). While the Lions did lose WR Aman-Ra St. Brown to concussion protocols in last week's game against Dallas, all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one as he didn't actually get diagnosed with a concussion (the league's new protocols dictated that he leave the game and not return). Speaking of returning players, Detroit should have RB De'Andre Swift back for the first time in a long time after he was a somewhat surprising scratch last week. The Lions wanted to give him one more week to recover but after he was a full participant in practice to start the week, he should be back on the field for Sunday's game. That's good news as the Dolphins have had a difficult time defending pass-catching running backs like Swift (and Jamaal Williams) this season. I see this as a breakout spot for a Lions offense that is starving for such an opportunity given the way they've lagged in recent games. Remember, this was one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first month of the season. Here, we'll note that Detroit has gone an exceptional 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following consecutive losses by 14+ points, as is the case here. Take Detroit (10*).

Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Panthers were written off by most following the trade of Christian McCaffrey, not to mention the firing of head coach Matt Rhule (I would actually consider that move to be addition by subtraction). Rather than hang their heads, the Panthers came out with something to prove last Sunday, routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory came at home. Now they hit the road to face the upstart Falcons in Atlanta. I'm not convinced this matchup is quite as daunting as it may seem for the visitors. Carolina will be looking to secure a third straight win and cover here in Atlanta after outlasting the Falcons by a 19-13 score on the road last season. Atlanta is dealing with a cluster of injuries in its secondary and will sorely miss its two two corners in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward in this one. Panthers QB P.J. Walker was given a vote of confidence from the team this week, named the starter despite Baker Mayfield apparently being healthy enough to return (he'll be in a backup role here). The run-first nature of the Falcons plays into the hands of the team catching points, eating up valuable clock most weeks. Last Sunday, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes despite game script leading you to believe it should be bombing away, trailing by a considerable margin all afternoon long in Cincinnati. I expect the Falcons to stick to the script here, even against a Panthers defense that has been relatively stout against the run, yielding just 3.5 yards per rush on the road this season. Carolina finally got its ground game going in last week's win and I expect some carry-over here, noting that Atlanta has been ripped for 5.4 yards per rush at home this season. Look for the Panthers to churn out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten this game - that gives them their best chance of securing a second straight victory in my opinion. Take Carolina (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Credit Stanford for turning its season around with consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal were circling the drain off to a 1-4 start prior to that, with their lone win having come against FCS squad Colgate. I think their run ends here, however, as they head to Westwood to face a UCLA squad that should be in a foul mood off a 45-30 loss at Oregon last week (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Stanford defense has held up well over the last two games but those were favorable matchups, unlike this one. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw the Cardinal allow three Oregon State touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, at home no less, nearly coughing up a 24-10 lead. The week previous to that there was a stretch where they allowed three Oregon touchdowns in just over four minutes of action. There were also poor performances against USC and Washington. In that same vein, I look for the Bruins offense to go off in this matchup. UCLA had no defensive answers for Oregon in Eugene last Saturday but few teams do these days. This is about as close to the electric Ducks offense of yesteryear that we've seen in quite some time. Here, the Bruins should benefit from facing a pocket-passer of a QB in Tanner McKee. You would have to go back three games to find the last time he threw a touchdown pass and he's no threat to run, gaining positive yardage on the ground just once all season (he gained five yards on two attempts against Oregon State). Note that UCLA checks in an incredible 10-1 ATS when coming off three straight games allowing 31+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, despite the victory last week, Stanford is still just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against Pac-12 opponents. Take UCLA (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Louisiana is absolutely playing its best football of the season right now and I think Southern Miss is ripe for the picking off consecutive wins - matching its longest winning streak of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns were overvalued early in the season, there's no question about that. They were favored by 11.5 and 9.5 points in their first two road games against Rice and Louisiana-Monroe and lost both contests outright. They followed up those two road defeats with another narrow home loss against South Alabama. The turnaround started two weeks ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns went on the road and upset Marshall by double-digits (as a double-digit underdog). From there, Louisiana routed Arkansas State 38-18 on Saturday. An injury to QB Chandler Fields has actually settled the situation under center with Ben Wooldridge taking over full-time. Keep in mind, the Ragin' Cajuns had been going with a two-man QB rotation, to mixed results. Suddenly Wooldridge has thrown for 546 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games. Over its last six quarters of action, Louisiana has had a 16-minute stretch where it put together four scoring drives against Marshall and scored four offensive touchdowns in a 13-minute stretch against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns defense, which was poised to be one of the best units in the Sun Belt Conference entering the season but got off to a sluggish start, has also come around. Louisiana has completely stamped out opposing passing games over the last month, yielding just 61-of-121 passing. The Ragin' Cajuns defense, which has forced 17 turnovers this season, has to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of facing a Southern Miss offense that has coughed the football up nine times over the last three games. The Golden Eagles offense continues to struggle, even though the team has won consecutive games. They scored exactly 20 points in each of those victories. QB Zach Wilcke has struggled now that there's plenty of tape out there on him - he's thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season while tossing seven interceptions over the last three games. Unlike Louisiana QB Wooldridge, Wilcke is fairly limited in terms of his running ability. RB Frank Gore Jr. is terrific but should the Golden Eagles fall behind as I expect here, it could be tough sledding for the dynamic back due to game script alone. Here, we'll note that Louisiana is a long-term 65-43 ATS when playing on the road from October on. Take Louisiana (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Bears have had but one truly favorable offensive matchup this season - that coming two games back in Minnesota (we won with the 'over' in that contest) and I suppose you could say they took advantage, scoring 22 points, albeit on just 271 total yards. Outside of that, the Chicago offense has been rather unimaginative and certainly unproductive and I expect that to continue on Monday as it draws a poor matchup against a still-underrated Patriots defense. New England has absolutely erased the majority of the passing games it has faced this season, limiting each of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer pass completions (only its first opponent this season - Miami - topped that mark with 23). Teams that have elected to stick with the run against the Patriots have had moderate success in terms of yardage gained, but not to much in terms of reaching the end zone. I like the Bears offense far better when they have a clear lead back but that's not the case right now with David Montgomery healthy. If anything, Montgomery's health is holding back incumbent Khalil Herbert who has looked like the more explosive RB. The Patriots are expected to have both QB Mac Jones and RB Damien Harris back on offense. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson has performed well, it certainly doesn't hurt getting Harris back as he's proven to have a real nose for the end zone over the course of his career. There are certainly Mac Jones doubters out there, especially given how well Bailey Zappe has performed in his absence, but I think he does just fine here, serving little more than a 'game manager' role noting that the Bears have been lit up by opposing ground games, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. While we usually look to fade teams coming off ATS winning streaks, the Pats don't appear to qualify as they've gone an incredible 47-29 ATS in their last 76 games following three straight ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Chicago checks in 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games in an underdog role, outscored by 9.2 points on average in that spot. Take New England (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 goals over Columbus at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jackets had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 loss to the Penguins on home ice last night. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been idle since Thursday, when they suffered a rare home loss by a 3-2 score against San Jose. The Blueshirts clearly got caught looking past the lowly Sharks in that game after a 3-1 start to the campaign. I don't expect them to do the Blue Jackets any such favors on Sunday, however. Columbus is going to give up its share of goals. Note that it has allowed 4, 5, 5, 3, 3 and 6 goals in six contests so far this season. While the Jackets have scored 12 goals over their last three games, I expect them to run into trouble with the Rangers rested and off a disappointing loss, not to mention playing at home. Note that New York has allowed an average of just 2.1 goals in 28 games following a home defeat over the last three seasons. Columbus checks in averaging only 2.0 goals per contest when playing on the road against division opponents over the same stretch. Take New York -1.5 goals (10*).

AFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

NOTE: Russell Wilson has been ruled out for the Broncos. Brett Rypien will start in his place. I'll stick with the play as I'm not sure that Rypien's presence changes what Denver will be looking to do and that's churn out long, clock-eating drives on offense while leaving the rest in the hands of its capable defense.

Everyone is down on the Broncos right now while the Jets, perhaps along with the Giants, are the NFL's 'flavor of the month'. We actually won with the Jets last week in their outright blowout win in Green Bay. I loved the way that spot set up for Gang Green but I think it's a much different story this week as they stay on the road for a second straight game to face the down-trodden Broncos in Denver. With New York suddenly 4-2 on the season, just one game back of first place in the AFC East, this becomes a clear look-ahead spot as its next three games will come at home against New England and Buffalo, followed by a bye week and then a quick road rematch against the Patriots. I still feel this Jets squad has some warts. QB Zach Wilson has generally been awful since taking over the reins under center, completing just 42-of-75 passes for 572 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, rookie RB Breece Hall has been outstanding but much of his success has been game-script dependent with the Jets holding sizable leads most of the way in each of the last two games. Prior to two weeks ago against Miami, New York had topped out at 98 rushing yards in a game this season. The Broncos, while clearly struggling, do still have at least a couple of redeeming qualities. Their defense remains stout. You don't hold the Chargers offense to 73 rushing yards and 224 passing yards (on 57 pass attempts) by fluke. Patrick Surtain would get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. Brandon Browning has been a massive find as a pass rusher on the outside. While it could certainly use some help from the offense, this is a defense capable of winning this game all on its own (note that the Broncos manhandled the Jets by a 26-0 score here in Denver in last year's meeting). While QB Russell Wilson hasn't been good by any stretch of the imagination, the Broncos play-calling has left a lot to be desired as well. They got way too predictable as the game went on in Los Angeles on Monday. I do think there were lessons to be gleaned from that narrow defeat and we'll see Denver employ a more aggressive offensive gameplan against a beatable Jets defense here. New York is certainly 'feeling itself' off last week's statement win in Green Bay (if you watched rookie Sauce Gardner's postgame interview you know what I mean). However, with young teams sometimes the highs are a little too high and I expect it to be brought back to Earth on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the Jets are a woeful 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games following three consecutive victories, outscored by 8.7 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in 28-12 the last 40 times they've played at home off a road loss against a division opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Rice at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana has traditionally been a house of horrors for visiting teams. Rice knows that as it has dropped four straight trips here, never coming within fewer than 15 points of the Bulldogs over that stretch. While this year's Owls squad has held its own, and then some, reeling off five consecutive ATS wins entering Saturday's contest, I look for it to fall short here. Last week, Rice could only muster 14 points in a field goal loss on the road against a very average Florida Atlantic defense. The Owls offense has certainly shown some regression as the schedule has toughened up - their two highest-scoring games of the season to date came back in Weeks 2 and 3 against the likes of FCS squad McNeese State and Louisiana-Lafayette. For Louisiana Tech, this is obviously a big game in terms of its potential Bowl hopes as it enters with just two victories and looking ahead at the schedule, will have only a few more legitimate opportunities to pick up wins and approach that six-victory mark. There have been positives to take away from the Bulldogs 2-4 start to the campaign. Back in mid-September Louisiana Tech travelled to Death Valley to face Clemson and stuck around for the entire first half, trailing just 13-6. Clemson took over in the third quarter but the Bulldogs again showed plenty of fight in the fourth quarter, scoring a pair of touchdowns to close the gap to 14 points before giving up a couple of scores late. Even last week at North Texas, Louisiana Tech fell behind 21-3 early but rallied to close the gap to a single touchdown entering the fourth quarter. My point being, there have been times where the Bulldogs could have folded the tent but instead reached down and showed some resiliency. I'm not convinced they'll have to be all that resilient in this particular matchup as I believe they can control proceedings. While the Bulldogs have been gashed by opposing ground games, I'm not sure that Rice has the backfield to take full advantage. Note that the Owls check in averaging just 127 rush yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush. Rice has had a tendency to look gassed following games I would term 'defensive slugfests', noting that it has gone a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 contests following a game in which both teams scored 17 points or less, as is the case here, outscored by a whopping margin of 22.0 points on average in that situation. From October on, Louisiana Tech has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.4 points in its last 69 games played here in Ruston. While the Bulldogs have had a tough run going back to last season, they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS losses this season and have been outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average when coming off an ATS defeat since the start of last season (nine-game sample size). Take Louisiana Tech (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*).

CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday.

We successfully faded the RedBlacks last week but needed a late Alouettes go-ahead score to get there. I expect this week's contest to be a little more straight-forward as Ottawa makes the trip to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Hamilton escaped with a 25-23 victory back in mid-July. It's worth noting that the RedBlacks didn't commit a single penalty in that game and won the turnover battle 4-2 yet still lost. Banged-up and simply playing out the string at this point, I don't expect Ottawa to pick itself up off the mat following last week's loss. The Ti-Cats check in playing some of their best football in an otherwise disappointing season, reeling off consecutive wins over Saskatchewan and Calgary. With Ottawa going completely one-dimensional on offense (it has run the football 21 or fewer times in five straight games), I expect the Ti-Cats defense to feast in this one. Note that the RedBlacks are a woeful 16-30 ATS the last 46 times they've come off a high-scoring game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here, while the Ti-Cats are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. Take Hamilton (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*).

SNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Cowboys last Sunday as they pulled off another upset win, this time on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Dallas as it plays on the road for a second straight week. QB Cooper Rush has been terrific in a 'game manager' role over the last four games, but game script has certainly favored the Cowboys as they've led most of the way in those contests. I expect a different story to unfold in Philadelphia on Sunday night as Rush is asked to do a little too much and upending the undefeated Eagles proves to be a bridge too far for the Cowboys. I came close to fading the Eagles last Sunday in Arizona as I absolutely hated the spot for Philadelphia, travelling across the country to face a Cardinals squad that would be easy to overlook. Right on cue, the Cards gave the Eagles all they could handle, ultimately missing a late field goal that would have tied the game. Here, I look for the Eagles to refocus and benefit from getting virtually their entire offensive line back healthy after being undermanned in that department last week. This really is an 'anything you can do, I can do better' type of matchup for the Eagles against a Cowboys squad that has admittedly played well. While Dallas would certainly like to effectively shorten this game by churning out long, clock-eating drives on offense, the Eagles defense is capable of snuffing out the run while also locking down the Cowboys receivers. I'm not convinced the Cowboys will be able to orchestrate enough of those long drives to keep its defense fresh against a multi-dimensional Eagles offense here. You can be sure Philadelphia hasn't forgotten about last season, when it got drilled in both matchups against Dallas, allowing 40+ points in each game. Look for the Eagles to get their payback here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As I mentioned last week, making the decision to bet for or against the Jaguars when they play at home isn't rocket science. You back them when they host the Colts and fade them against everyone else. That strategy worked to perfection once again last Sunday as they fell as a considerable favorite at home against the Texans. Here, we find the Jags back on the road, where they're just 1-2 so far this season but their two losses were competitive affairs against the Commanders and still-undefeated Eagles. Of course, the Jags already have a win over these Colts to their credit. We successfully backed Jacksonville in its 24-0 stomping of Indy back in Week 2. In fact, we've been involved in all five Colts games this season in some shape or form, including two of the last three weeks when we successfully backed them in upset wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. I won't hesitate to go the other way this week, however, as they return home in a favored role against division-rival Jacksonville. Indy's offense remains broken. QB Matt Ryan has shown no ability whatsoever to push the ball down the field, wasting the talent of WR Michael Pittman in the process. While RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, I'm not convinced he'll be able to find any running room behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to both run and pass block. The Jags defense has held up as well as anyone could have expected so far this season. Even two weeks ago when their offense turned the football over a whopping five times in the rain in Philadelphia, they still 'only' allowed 29 points against a high-powered Eagles offense. Last week's loss certainly can't be pinned on the defense as the Jags offense simply couldn't get anything going against the Texans. There are going to be some growing pains like that over the course of the season for this offense but I expect it to bounce back on Sunday. The Colts defense was made to look good against a punchless Broncos offense last week. I don't believe it will be so fortunate here as Jags QB Trevor Lawrence looked incredibly comfortable against this unit back in Week 2, picking it apart for 25-of-30 passing for 235 yards. Even last year, when the Jags were an absolute mess, they still managed to stay within six points of the Colts as a double-digit underdog here in Indy. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored here. Take Jacksonville (10*).

East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday.

The RedBlacks sold out to stop the run and ultimately pulled off a 24-18 upset victory in Montreal on Monday afternoon (we won with the 'under' in that game). Now it's the Als turn to make the necessary adjustments and get back in the win column with a quick rematch on Friday night in Ottawa. I like their chances of doing just that against a banged-up RedBlacks squad. Ottawa will be without WRs Jaylon Acklin and DeVonte Dedmon after both contributed to Monday's victory in Montreal. That's not the worst news as it will also be missing a pair of key defenders in Patrick Levels and Praise Martin-Oguike. Montreal will obviously have a chip on its shoulder entering this game having dropped two straight meetings against Ottawa. Remember, the Als lost a 38-24 decision at home against the RedBlacks in early September as well. They had no answer for the aforementioned Acklin in that contest as he went off for seven catches and 159 yards. While Ottawa QB Nick Arbuckle has been efficient in those last two matchups against Montreal, he's been more of a 'game manager' than anything else, throwing for 542 yards but just one touchdown. I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as Montreal won the lone previous matchup between these two teams in Ottawa by a 40-33 score back in July. Look for the Als to bounce back on Friday. Take Montreal (10*).

NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Commanders have fallen on hard times, dropping four straight games since opening the season with a 28-22 win over the Jaguars. They've also faced a tough slate, however, starting with a trip to Detroit to face what was a full-strength Lions team at the time followed by a home game against the still-undefeated Eagles, a road game against a better than expected Cowboys team and finally a home date against an improving Titans squad. Here, Washington catches a break as it faces Chicago on a short week, with the Bears coming off an emotionally and physically draining 29-22 division loss against the Vikings on Sunday. The Bears do check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season but those victories came in a monsoon against the 49ers in Week 1 and over a then-winless Texans squad in Week 3. Here, they'll host a Commanders squad that checks in a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off four consecutive losses and a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two times it has come off three straight games in which it scored 17 or fewer points, as is the case here. I don't like the regression we've seen from the Bears defense in recent weeks. They've been getting gashed by opposing running games and that's an area I feel the Commanders can exploit as well. Chicago has already allowed three of its five opponents to rack up 175+ rushing yards this season. Offensively, Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off one of the best games of his young career but I question whether he can follow it up here, noting that they had a considerable advantage against a weak Vikings defense that doesn't stop the run and didn't really have anyone that could match up against Chicago's lone true receiving threat in Darnell Mooney. Washington has quietly played well defensively after a tough start to the campaign. It has held its last three opponents to just 2.6 yards per rush. The only opponent to throw for more than 260 yards against the Commanders this season was Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Over the last two games, Washington has held the opposition to just 30-of-52 passing for 353 yards. While it's true those two games came against Cooper Rush and Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields is generally only asked to be a 'game manager' as well. Note that the Bears are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS victory, which is the situation here. They're also 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss against a division opponent. We'll plug our noses and back the Commanders here, noting that there's an outside chance we could see Ron Rivera finally lift QB Carson Wentz for experienced backup Taylor Heineke should Wentz get off to a poor start. That would only work in our favor in my opinion. Take Washington (10*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Temple plus the points over Central Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Temple plays about as ugly a brand of football as you'll find but it does succeed ATS, having covered in three of its five games so far this season. Here, I do think the Owls can run a little bit and ultimately move the chains and possess the football long enough to stay inside the pointspread. Temple has dropped each of the last five meetings in this series, failing to defeat UCF since 2016. It would be easy for the Knights to overlook the Owls coming off a big win over SMU and looking ahead to an away showdown against East Carolina next week. While UCF did prevail by a lopsided 41-19 score against a good SMU squad last week, that game ultimately turned on a couple of third quarter Knights touchdowns and from there the Mustangs came unglued trying to rally and UCF extended the winning margin. It wasn't until less than six minutes remaining in the first half before the Knights reached the end zone in that game. Two games back against Georgia Tech, UCF didn't score an offensive touchdown until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple has turned the football over 13 times through five games this season yet hasn't given up more than 30 points in a single contest. I do think we'll see the Owls go a little more conservative offensively in this one, simply looking to salvage some confidence from this two-game away set after a three-touchdown loss at Memphis last time out. On the flip side, the Knights might want to scale back dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee a little as he has led the team in rushing in all but one of its five games this season and it will certainly need his exploits at full-go down the stretch. Here, we'll note that UCF checks in 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory by 21+ points and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 contests after scoring 37+ points in its previous game. Look for the Knights to 'manage' this game and it ultimately comes at the expense of an ATS victory. Take Temple (10*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Raiders, while coming off a much-needed victory over the Broncos last Sunday, are still watching their season slip away with the prospect of falling a full three games back of the AFC West-leading Chiefs on Monday night. I think there's a better chance of them avoiding that fate than most seem to believe. Here, we get Las Vegas playing with triple-revenge having lost the last three meetings in this series since posting a stunning 40-32 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead back on October 11, 2020 - almost two years to the day. To me, the Raiders woes aren't all that difficult to fix. They've been settling for far too many field goals rather than touchdowns - case in point, last week against the Broncos they kicked four field goals but still managed to produce 32 points. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Raiders passing game after going up against one of the best secondaries in football last week. I'm confident that will lead to a couple more touchdown drives. Getting slot WR Hunter Renfrow back certainly helps as well after he thrived in a pair of matchups against the Chiefs last season. The Chiefs are coming off a nationally-televised blowout win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. That was a true 'get-right' spot after suffering a 20-17 loss to the Colts the week previous (we won with Indianapolis in that game). Kansas City dropped the cash in its lone previous home game this season and is now 0-5 ATS in its last five home games when priced as a favorite between 3.5 and 7 points, as is the case here. Interestingly, the Chiefs are also 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've come off a wild, high-scoring game where both teams scored 30+ points, which is also the situation here. The Raiders are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 contests as a road underdog. Take Las Vegas (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've been high on the Falcons lately and why not as they've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this season, including consecutive outright underdog wins over Seattle and Cleveland. I think they're in for a rude awakening on Sunday, however, as they travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers squad that finds itself in a blow-up spot off consecutive home losses against the Packers and Chiefs. It's not often teams get to play three straight games at home but that's the case for the Bucs on Sunday. They're seemingly catching the Falcons at the right time as well as Atlanta will be without Swiss Army knife RB Cordarrelle Patterson. That's not to mention the fact that TE Kyle Pitts is banged-up as well - likely to play but not likely to be at 100%. Of course, Pitts has been disappointing apart from his strong blocking this year, failing to live up to the hype in his sophomore campaign, so far at least. Lost in the Falcons competitive start to the season is the fact that their offense has been extremely limited and one-dimensional. Last week, QB Marcus Mariota completed just 7-of-19 passes for 131 yards against a Browns pass defense that had been struggling (not to mention a pass rush that was missing Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney). Since completing 20 passes in Week 1 against New Orleans, Mariota has totalled 17 or less completions in each of the last three games. We know that the Bucs can stop the run and that leaves the Falcons in a tough spot should they fall behind early in this one. Tampa Bay's offense was forced to throw the gameplan out the window after digging an early hole of its own against Kansas City last Sunday night. In fact, the Bucs have run the football only 20 times in the last week as game script has certainly worked against them. Here, we can anticipate a much different story unfolding as the Falcons have done little to slow opposing ground attacks, yielding just shy of 5.0 yards per rush. And let's not forget that the Tampa Bay offense got most of its key parts back last week with Mike Evans leading the charge with two touchdown receptions. Atlanta's opponents have been filling up the boxscore through the air, completing 23, 27, 32 and 21 passes through four games - despite combining for seven turnovers short-circuiting drive-after-drive. The Bucs had little trouble in this matchup last year, winning both meetings by a combined 78-42 margin. Here, we'll note that the Falcons check in a woeful 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've come off an outright win as a home underdog, as is the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

MWC Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force. The Falcons are coming off an ugly 13-10 victory over Navy last Saturday. Bettors lined up to back Air Force in that contest and got burned as it never came close to sniffing out a cover. Here, I think the wrong thing to do would be to back off of the Falcons. They're in a smash spot as they make the trip to Logan to take on Utah State. The Aggies are off to a 1-4 start and while they did put up more of a fight than most expected, they still dropped a 38-26 decision against BYU last Thursday. Utah State jumped out to an early 7-0 start in that contest with surprising starting QB Cooper Legas clearly catching the BYU defense off guard. From there, however, it managed just two more touchdowns the rest of the way with one of those coming in the game's final two minutes when the outcome was all but decided. Just two games back, when the Aggies were fresh off an embarrassing 35-7 home loss against FCS squad Weber State and appeared to be in prime bounce-back position, they gave up three UNLV touchdowns over a seven-minute stretch early in the contest and ultimately lost by 10 points at home. We've already successfully backed Air Force twice this season, at home against Colorado and Nevada, while also successfully fading it in its lone previous loss - a stunning 17-14 weeknight defeat in Wyoming back on September 16th. I'm not going to knock the Falcons over last week's tight decision against a struggling Navy squad as you never really know how those 'Commander-in-Chief Trophy' games will go (just ask Army about its game against Navy last December). Air Force has undoubtedly had this game circled after dropping a wild 49-45 loss against Utah State in last year's meeting. That was a much stronger Aggies squad, on both sides of the football. I have little confidence in Utah State's ability to get back in this game should it fall behind as Air Force controls the football, controls the clock and ultimately controls the outcome. Take Air Force (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kansas has turned heads in the early going this season, reeling off five consecutive victories to break into the Top 25. I expect the Jayhawks run to end here, however. Last week's 14-11 win over Iowa State was the high point for Kansas - finally earning it some national recognition for its hot start. It will be running into a juggernaut in the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday. TCU absolutely throttled Oklahoma last Saturday, scoring five touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half to jump ahead and never look back in a 55-24 win. That's just the tip of the iceberg though. Two weeks ago the Horned Frogs scored four touchdowns in a 22-minute period in the first half en route to a 42-34 win over SMU, on the road no less, and there were also earlier merciless beatings of Colorado and FCS squad Tarleton State by a combined 97-30 margin. While the TCU defense has been somewhat forgiving in the early going this season, I will note that it allowed just two Oklahoma touchdowns in the first three quarters of last week's game. Against SMU it was already ahead 28-7 before the Mustangs caught it with its guard down and ultimately made a game of it. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Horned Frogs keep their mind on task against a conference opponent on the road. I hate to say it, but I do feel that Kansas has been very fortunate to start 5-0. Both West Virginia and Houston appeared poised to end the Jayhawks undefeated run earlier in the season but I think they both got caught thinking they could shift it into cruise control after building two-touchdown first quarter leads. This is obviously a much different Jayhawks squad and one that shouldn't be dismissed. I'm just not convinced the Kansas offense can keep within arm's reach in this one, noting that Iowa State laid out a pretty good blueprint for slowing dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels last Saturday, even in a losing effort (Daniels completed just 7-of-14 passes for 93 yards and ran for only nine yards on eight attempts). Kansas lost RB Daniel Hishaw to an injury in that contest as well, heaping a little more pressure on Daniels moving forward. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a woeful 35-54 ATS the last 89 times it has come off a home victory. In the Jayhawks last 21 games as an underdog they've been outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points. While I understand this is a different Kansas team, I'm still not completely sold on it being a legitimate Big 12 contender. Take TCU (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Denver at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Colts two weeks ago as they pulled off a stunning upset of the Chiefs at home. They couldn't follow it up with another victory last Sunday as they fell by a 24-17 score at home against the division-rival Titans. Note that Indianapolis was seemingly driving for the game-tying touchdown deep in Tennessee territory midway through the fourth quarter before a Jonathan Taylor fumble. Taylor is of course now injured and questionable to play on a short week. I'm not overly concerned with his potential absence as this Colts offense works just fine with Nyheim Hines in the backfield, who is more of a dual-threat back. Here, we'll note that the Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times they've played on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS. The pressure is mounting in Denver as the Broncos are now 2-2 on the season off a loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders were the first team to really run at this Broncos defensive front and they racked up 212 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Offensively, the Broncos have been a mess. It's getting to the point where you have to wonder whether Russell Wilson (and head coach Nathaniel Hackett for that matter) are the right fit running this offense. The Colts couldn't stop Derrick Henry last Sunday but that's nothing new. They did shut down the Titans passing game for the most part, allowing only 116 yards on 17-of-21 pass completions. Most are quick to write off Colts QB Matt Ryan who I'll admit appears 'washed' through the first four games of the season. I do think there's more to this team than just Ryan, however, and I'm confident head coach Frank Reich can scheme up a solid bounce-back performance from his team here. Take Indianapolis (10*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

I understand the hesitation to lay an extra run with a Brewers team that has had a tough enough time simply winning games lately, let alone by margin. With that being said, I like the spot on Monday as the Brew Crew look to bounce back from consecutive one-run losses against the Marlins as they host a D'Backs club simply playing out the string on the final stop of this road trip that has already taken them to Houston and San Francisco. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has supplanted Corbin Burnes as the team's 'ace', reeling off a stretch of four consecutive incredible outings. Over that stretch, Woodruff has allowed just four earned runs on 18 hits while striking out 42 and walking only five in 26 innings of work. Arizona will counter with rookie left-hander Tommy Henry. He got off to a reasonably solid start this season but the wheels have since come off as he's been tagged for 17 earned runs on 20 hits over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 innings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Noting that the Brewers have won each of Woodruff's last three starts by 3+ runs, I'm comfortable backing them on the run-line here. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills employed the right strategy with an undermanned defense in the Miami heat last Sunday, churning out long offensive drives that effectively shortened the game. The problem was, they couldn't finish their drives with 7's on the board and it ultimately cost them in a stunning defeat. Here, I look for Buffalo to bounce back with a big win over the Ravens, who are off a considerable victory of their own in New England last Sunday. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been running wild but I'm confident the Bills can contain him - at least on the ground - in this one. Man-to-man defense just doesn't work against the dual-threat Jackson. Buffalo will likely stick to zone here and force Lamar to beat it through the air. Offensively, the Bills should feast on a banged-up Ravens defense. Josh Allen is highly unlikely to turn in two 'bad' games in a row - and I use that term loosely. Let's not forget that the Ravens made Patriots sophomore QB Mac Jones look good last week. Allen should go off in this spot and I look for the Bills to 'get right', noting that Buffalo has gone 28-14 ATS the last 42 times it has played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here. Take Buffalo (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Army minus the points over Georgia State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Poor tackling has been Georgia State's calling card on the way to an 0-4 record this seaosn. That doesn't bode well as the Panthers head to West Point to take on Army and its triple-option offense on Saturday. In last week's loss against Coastal Carolina, Georgia State allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 14 minutes, including two in the first five minutes on its way to a 41-24 loss. Even when the Chanticleers were simply trying to pick up a few first downs and run out the clock late, the Panthers gave up another touchdown (we unfortunately lost the 'under' as a result). The week previous, Georgia State allowed five offensive touchdowns in a 42-41 loss to Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has looked good for stretches but hasn't shown nearly enough consistency. Case in point, back in Week 2, when they had a shot at upsetting North Carolina, they went scoreless over the game's final 17 minutes, allowing a pair of Tar Heels touchdowns to lose 35-28. They scored a pair of first half touchdowns against Coastal Carolina last week but their offense was held out of the end zone for the entire second half. Army entered the season with sky-high hopes but things haven't gone as planned as it is off to a 1-2 start. With that said, the Black Knights did finally get loose for a 49-10 rout of a quality FCS opponent in Villanova last week. In that game, we saw Army score three touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half, before it added three more offensive touchdowns in the second half. There was no shame in Army's two losses this season as they came at the hands of aforementioned Coastal Carolina and UTSA - two teams that will more than likely be Bowl-bound. In those two games, the Black Knights still managed to put up a combined 66 points. Note that these two teams met last season and the result was no contest as Army won by a 43-10 score. The talent gap might just be wider this year but it's certainly not reflected by the pointspread. Take Army (10*).

My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This is one of the better games on Saturday's college football slate and I really like the way it sets up for the underdog Wildcats. Kentucky enters this game with an identical 4-0 record to that of Ole Miss. While it hasn't been quite as flashy, the Wildcats offense has delivered nonetheless and I expect it to again in this spot. While Kentucky won by 'only' eight points as a near four touchdown favorite against Northern Illinois last week, I didn't come away overly concerned as I'm actually higher than most on the Huskies this year. Kentucky allowed a pair of first half touchdowns in that game but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until the game's final three minutes, when it was already comfortably in front by 14 points. Going back three games, the Wildcats went on the road and impressively defeated Florida by a 26-16 score (we won with the 'under' in that game). They didn't give up a touchdown until the final six minutes of the first half in that contest and after that didn't allow another offensive score of any kind the rest of the way. Then there's the Kentucky offense. It scored a touchdown in all four quarters in last week's win over NIU. Two games back the Wildcats scored four offensive touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half against then-undefeated FCS squad Youngstown State. Ole Miss rushed out to five first half touchdowns last week against Tulsa. It's worth noting, however, that the Rebels didn't score another point from there, despite Tulsa closing the gap to a couple of scores less than five minutes into the third quarter. We've seen inconsistent stretches like that from the Rebels at times this season, partially due to game script but also in part as a result of QB Jaxson Dart still figuring things out. He's completed just 51-of-82 passes, throwing for 200+ yards only once while tossing five touchdowns to go along with two interceptions. This will clearly be his toughest test to date. Last year's matchup was a barn-burner with Ole Miss prevailing by a 42-41 score. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well. Take Kentucky (8*).

Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over Kansas State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kansas State is coming off a massive upset win over Oklahoma last week but I expect the Wildcats to have their hands full with Texas Tech as they return to Manhattan this Saturday. In that victory, the Wildcats scored three touchdowns in the game's first 24 minutes but then stalled until QB Adrian Martinez put the team on his back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdown runs. By all accounts, it was a career game for Martinez, the type of performance that he'll have a difficult time replicating this week. Lost in the victory was the fact that the Kansas State defense yielded two touchdowns in around five minutes on two different occasions in that contest. Keep in mind, this is a Wildcats squad that is just one game removed from losing outright by a 17-10 score at home against Tulane. Yes, there was also a 40-12 rout of Missouri earlier in the season but even in that game we saw the Wildcats offense stall for an extended stretch, held out of the end zone from 13 minutes remaining in the second quarter until 13 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech picked up a much-needed rebound victory over Texas last Saturday, successfully bouncing back from a 27-14 loss on the road against a terrific N.C. State team the week previous. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders allowed just two offensive touchdowns in that loss to the Wolfpack. Earlier, in a wild 33-30 overtime win over Houston, Texas Tech allowed only one offensive touchdown in regulation time and that didn't come until nearly two minutes into the third quarter. Of course, the Red Raiders offense is fine. They scored touchdowns in all four quarters against a pretty good Texas defense last week. QB Donovan Smith got a little turnover-happy in those aforementioned games against Houston and N.C. State but has already thrown for 1,100+ yards and nine touchdowns while also adding three rushing scores. Take Texas Tech (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up for UCLA as it hosts undefeated Washington on Friday night. The Huskies are 4-0 but who have they really beaten of substance? The easy answer is Michigan State and Stanford, representing their last two victories. I'm just not convinced either of those two teams are all that good, certainly not Stanford. Keep in mind this will be Washington's first road game of the season. UCLA is also 4-0 but had a big-time scare in an eventual 32-31 win over South Alabama two weeks ago that seems to be giving a lot of bettors' pause in this spot. Let's keep things in perspective - South Alabama is a quality team off to a 3-1 start. The Bruins got into a fight they probably didn't expect in that contest and ultimately prevailed, holding the Jaguars off the scoreboard for the entire fourth quarter in a come-from-behind win that they're probably now stronger because of. Last week, the Bruins rolled to a 45-17 win over Colorado. That margin could have probably been even wider in that contest were it not for a couple of defensive lapses at the end of the first half and fourth quarter. They were already ahead 21-3 when they allowed Colorado to run in a short touchdown in the final 20 seconds of the first half. UCLA didn't allow another score until the outcome as long decided, up 48-10 in the game's final three minutes. I'm more concerned about Washington's defense, which allowed three touchdowns in the game's final 34 minutes against a rather punchless Stanford attack last week. The Huskies got off to a tremendous start against Michigan State the week previous but went on to allow 28 points in the game's final 32 minutes with the final score of 39-28 far closer than they would have liked. Here, we'll note that UCLA is 23-7 ATS the last 30 times it has played at home after scoring 42+ points in its previous game, outscoring opponents by 17.7 points on average in that situation. Take UCLA (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Friday.

San Diego State won 27-16 as a three-point home underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. I look for Boise State to answer back on Friday night. It's not easy to get behind the Broncos right now. They're coming off a stunning 27-10 loss at UTEP last week and after that putrid offensive performance, fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. There's no reason for Boise State to be as inconsistent offensively as it has been in the first month of the season. While San Diego State is always tough defensively, perhaps there's reason to believe Boise State can break through against the Aztecs here. San Diego State has actually struggled against any opponent with an offensive pulse this season, namely Arizona and Utah. In the opener against the Wildcats, the Aztecs allowed four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter. It was a similar story against Utah as San Diego State yielded five touchdowns over a 23-minute stretch in the second and third quarters. The problem is, the Aztecs don't have the type of offense that can respond, at least not very quickly. As I did two weeks ago in my analysis of a play on Utah over San Diego State, I'm still questioning whether Virginia Tech transfer QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. In fact, it's becoming evident that he's not. Boise State has had its own issues offensively but the pieces are still in place to turn it around, and relieving Plough of his duties should provide a spark. The Broncos defense has been solid. Even in last week's setback, it didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half and then gave up only one offensive touchdown the rest of the way, that coming in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. Boise State has actually given up just five offensive touchdowns over its last 14 quarters of action (after a rough season-opening first half against Oregon State). All is not lost as the Broncos get four of their next five games at home but it has to start with a victory here. Note that Boise State checks in a long-term 41-24 ATS when coming off two ATS losses in its last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. Take Boise State (10*).

My selection is on BYU minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Utah State might not be the worst defensive team in the country but it's in the conversation. Looking back, all of the signs were there in the Aggies 31-20 Week 0 victory over Connecticut. The Huskies have one of the most punchless offenses in the nation yet they managed to score 20 points, including two first quarter touchdowns in Utah State's season and home-opener. From there we saw an expected rout at the hands of Alabama before the Aggies returned home for what should have been a big bounce-back performance against FCS squad Weber State. Instead, Utah State lost 35-7. Last Saturday, the Aggies gave up three touchdowns in the game's first 19 minutes on their way to a 34-24 defeat. You get the picture. BYU figures to take advantage. The Cougars weren't their sharpest offensively but still scored four touchdowns in the first three quarters on their way to a 38-24 win over a 'tough out' in the Wyoming Cowboys last Saturday (we won with Wyoming in its outright upset of Air Force a week earlier). BYU allowed a touchdown just under two minutes into the second quarter in that contest but then held the Cowboys out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. Note that earlier this season we saw the Cougars hold a potent Baylor offense out of the end zone until less than two minutes remaining in the first half, eventually winning that game by a 26-20 score in double-overtime. There was also a Week 1 performance where BYU didn't give up any points until South Florida found the end zone with seconds remaining in the first half - after it had fallen behind 38-0. Yes, there was a blowout loss at Oregon but that was a tough spot for BYU after starting 2-0 and coming off that big win over Baylor (note that the Ducks have scored 155 points over their last three games). BYU went on the road and won 34-20 against a much stronger Utah State squad last year - an Aggies team that essentially caught lightning in a bottle. With QB Logan Bonner mired in an awful stretch it stands to reason that Utah State could make a change at quarterback here. I'm just not convinced anyone is going to turn things around on the road on a short week against a quality opponent like BYU. Take BYU (10*).

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

Just over a week ago, few gave the Cowboys a shot at upsetting the Bengals with Dak Prescott sidelined and a banged-up offensive line tasked with the challenge of keeping backup QB Cooper Rush upright. What did Dallas do? It went out and delivered a victory over the Bengals - Rush's second high-profile win in Prescott's absence after defeating the Vikings on the road in a Sunday night game last October. Here, I believe Dallas can employ a similar gameplan to what we saw last Sunday against Cincinnati, but it will be dealing with an offense with far fewer weapons. By all accounts, New York has used smoke and mirrors to open the season 2-0, rallying in the fourth quarter for a win in Tennessee in Week 1 and scoring only 19 points in a field goal victory over the Panthers in last Sunday's home opener. RB Saquon Barkley has been the engine on offense as QB Daniel Jones has a limited amount of talent to work with at the wide receiver and tight end positions. The Cowboys being a divisional opponent know exactly what to expect from Barkley. They bottled up a pretty good Bengals ground attack to the tune of just 89 rushing yards on 25 carries last week. On the flip side, the Giants have been losing the battle in the trenches, allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per rush this season. Note that Dallas has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins over NFC East opponents, outscoring those opponents by an average margin of 22.2 points. The Cowboys are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average along the way. The Giants, meanwhile, have been outscored by 5.8 points on average in their last 10 games following a win. Take Dallas (10*).

NFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Falcons enter this game 0-2 but have been competitive in both games, perhaps illustrating a tide-turning of sorts for this down-trodden franchise. After losing, but covering the spread, in a loss against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday, they'll be determined to earn a split on this road trip with this winnable date with the Seahawks. Seattle probably experienced the high point of its entire season back in Week 1 when it upset Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Night Football. We successfully faded the Seahawks last Sunday as they didn't even put up a fight in a lopsided loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara. This is a mouth-watering matchup for the Falcons offense, which is looking for a breakout performance after running against two top-level defensive teams in the Saints and Rams over the last two weeks. The Seahawks are vulnerable all over the field on defense and that should open the door for a big afternoon for standout rookie WR Drake London and dare I say TE Kyle Pitts, who has been disappointing fantasy owners everywhere but carries a strong 'it's only a matter of time' narrative. On the flip side, the Falcons defense is nothing to write home about, but neither is the Seattle offense. Vulnerable at the back-end, Atlanta catches a break by facing Seahawks QB Geno Smith who simply hasn't shown the ability to throw his receivers open deep. I can't help but feel Pete Carroll will go back a run-first philosophy here after a far more pass-centric offensive gameplan than most expected through two weeks. I also can't help but feel it won't work as the Falcons have actually been stingy against the run despite game-script that would have indicated otherwise in Weeks 1 and 2. Take Atlanta (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Colts have looked down-trodden through the first two weeks of the season, I'm willing to give them a pass to some extent as they finally get their home-opener against the Chiefs on Sunday. Indianapolis actually moved the football at will in its season-opening 20-20 tie in Houston. Of course, there's a chance that the Texans are a better team than most expected after they gave the Broncos everything they could handle in Denver last Sunday. Speaking of last Sunday, the Colts were crushed by a 24-0 score in Jacksonville (we won with the Jaguars in that game). That upset loss was somewhat predictable given the team's struggles in Jacksonville over the years. Here, I believe Indianapolis is much better-positioned as the 'hunter' rather than the 'hunted' at home against the 2-0 Chiefs. Keep in mind, Colts head coach Frank Reich schemed up a 19-13 victory at Arrowhead Stadium the last time these two teams met in 2019. On that occasion, the Colts were led by Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and Marlon Mack in the backfield. RB Nyheim Hines led the team in receiving on that night (he should play a key factor in Sunday's game as well). Similarly, Colts QB Matt Ryan last faced the Chiefs in December of 2020 and found considerable success, completing 27-of-35 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 19-16 loss (playing for a 4-11 Falcons team at the time). Note that Ryan is likely to get some help after working with a severely undermanned wide receiving corps last Sunday with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both having practised all week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts are in desperate need of a boost and should have Shaq Leonard back in the fold after he also practised all week. It remains to be seen whether Leonard will be full go should he play but his mere presence would give the Colts an emotional lift at the very least. I've said little about the Chiefs. They're obviously playing well but you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time they opened a season winning their first two road games by more than a field goal, which they're being asked to do given the pointspread this week. Here, we'll note that the Colts are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home underdog of between 3.5 and 7 points, outscored by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. They've also gone 10-2 ATS when coming off a division game over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.1 points in that spot. Take Indianapolis (10*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won with Buffalo plus the points in its tough road loss against Coastal Carolina last Saturday as it fell to 0-3 on the season. The Bulls have certainly faced a tough early schedule with games against Maryland and aforementioned CCU on the road and Holy Cross, a top FCS squad, at home. Here, I look for the Bulls to give Eastern Michigan all it can handle, noting that the Eagles are coming off their biggest victory in years, 30-21 on the road against Arizona State last Saturday (we cashed our free play on the 'under' in that game). EMU pulled off that stunning upset victory thanks to 259 rushing yards from RB Samson Evans. I'm chalking that up as an outlier performance as Evans had been held to just 108 yards on 25 carries in the first two games this season. The strength of the Bulls defense is at the linebacker position and I'm confident they can keep Evans under wraps on Saturday. Note that EMU lost QB Taylor Powell to a shoulder injury in last Saturday's win. He's questionable to play this week. If he can't go, it will be Austin Smith under center. He's more of a dual-threat than Powell but I believe Buffalo matches up better against that type of quarterback with their athleticism on defense. Bulls QB Cole Snyder has been under duress for much of the season so far but has held up relatively well. Note that EMU hasn't shown any semblance of a pass rush with just one sack through three games. In a game that I feel will be played closer to the vest than expected (I feel the posted total has been set too high as well), I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Take Buffalo (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Nevada at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won fading Air Force last Friday night as the Falcons lost outright as a double-digit favorite in a tough setting in Laramie, Wyoming. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Air Force (we won with the Falcons just two games back against Colorado) as it returns to Colorado Springs to host a disjointed Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are an even 2-2 to start the season but their outlook is by no means promising. We won with the 'under' in their season-opening 23-12 win on the road against a bad New Mexico State squad in Week 0 but even in that victory there was reason for concern. Nevada didn't score until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and after reaching the end zone with less than a minute remaining in the first half, it failed to record another touchdown in the game's final 30 minutes. After routing a weak Texas State squad the next week, the Wolf Pack got absolutely throttled by FCS squad Incarnate Word 55-41. That final score was actually flattering for the Wolf Pack as Incarnate Word led 55-27 before allowing a couple of late scores. Shane Illingworth took over at quarterback against Iowa last Saturday and proceeded to complete just 14-of-28 passes for 82 yards. Without a dominant offensive line or ground attack, there's just little for this Wolf Pack offense to hang its hat on nearly a month into the season. Defensively, Nevada allowed a punchless Iowa attack to score a pair of first quarter touchdowns last week and again, we learned a lot about this unit in that game against Incarnate Word (the Cardinals scored four offensive touchdowns in the game's first 36 minutes). Air Force will obviously be in a foul mood off last week's defeat and the Falcons are well-positioned to bounce back here at home where they're 2-0 on the campaign, registering 48-17 and 41-10 victories. The last time we saw them here they held Colorado off the scoreboard until just over four minutes into the second quarter and then didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way. Credit Wyoming's defense for bottling up the Falcons option-based offense last week but I don't expect Nevada to do the same, noting that AFA scored 41 points in a wild victory over the Wolf Pack last November. Take Air Force (10*).

TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Browns are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching home loss to the Jets in a game they led by two touchdowns with just two minutes remaining. It took an incredible series of events for New York to overcome that late deficit and steal a road win. I think the best thing for the Browns is to get right back on the field on a short week, and I'm confident backing them in the first half now that we know Joel Bitonio, Myles Garrett and Jack Conklin are all expected to play (as of Wednesday). The Steelers have looked unimpressive and it's only a matter of time before QB Mitchell Trubisky is supplanted by rookie Kenny Pickett. In fact, I believe the move is probably coming sooner rather than later, another reason why I prefer to back the Browns in the first half only in this one. Should things go south early on there's always the possibility (albeit small given Mike Tomlin's track record) that Pickett enters this game at some point and gives Pittsburgh a boost. The Steelers want to run Najee Harris as the focal point of their offense but he's dealing with multiple injuries and that doesn't bode well as he plays on a short week. While the presence of Browns pressure magnet QB Jacoby Brissett does give me some pause, I expect the Browns to go run-heavy as usual and they should be able to bully the Steelers in the trenches on both sides of the football. Here, we'll note that the Steelers are just 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on six days or less of rest over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Browns are 12-2 ATS in the first half in their last 14 Thursday games, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points on average. Take Cleveland first half (10*).

Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on Ukraine pk over Scotland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday.

While things are anything but normal back home, many Ukrainian players have at least gained some return to 'normalcy' with the return of league play and now they have the opportunity to once again play for their country in another key Nations League fixture on Wednesday in Glasgow. Ukraine has gone undefeated across its last three matches since suffering a bitter 1-0 defeat against Wales to miss out on World Cup qualification. Note that it has managed to strike first in seven of its last nine matches across all competitions and now faces a Scottish side that has played far too loose with four of its last five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. I say it has played too loose as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to consistently prevail in relatively high-scoring affairs. I like Ukraine's move to Andriy Lunin between the sticks. He is a Real Madrid man even if he hasn't had much opportunity with the Spanish side to this point. No Zinchenko for Ukraine on Wednesday but it still boasts a first class side with Yaremchuk, Yarmolenko and Mudryk, who has performed well for Shakhtar Donetsk recently. While Scotland is always a tough out in Glasgow, I do expect Ukraine to rise to the occasion here, noting that it currently sits just a single point ahead of the Scots atop the Group 1 standings with a return match on deck in Krakow. Take Ukraine pk (10*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Vikings blew out the perennial NFC North front-running Packers last week while the Eagles held on for a three-point victory over the Lions in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. While many are high on the Vikings and believe they can contend for an NFC North title this season, I'm not of that same opinion. Yes, I like some of the pieces they have in place, namely RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson but this is a team that has its share of flaws, particularly on the defensive side of the football. The Eagles mean business this year - that was evident when they went out and got WR A.J. Brown and even CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson just prior to start of the season. QB Jalen Hurts has already shown tremendous chemistry with Brown. I'm also anticipating a jump in production in second-year wideout DeVonta Smith this year. Then you have underrated RB Miles Sanders running behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Needless to say, the Eagles offense should be a handful for the Vikings on Monday. While Justin Jefferson is an elite, arguably unstoppable wide receiver, the Eagles do have plenty of bodies to throw at him. With veteran Adam Thielen on the decline, Jefferson is going to continue to get considerable attention from opposing defenses. I'm not convinced the Vikings are well-suited to play from behind, which I expect them to be doing for much of Monday's contest. Note that the Eagles have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points the last 68 times they've played at home after scoring 30+ points in a game, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Monday.

The Mariners have inexplicably dropped the first three games of this series and while the Angels would like nothing better than to play spoiler against their division rivals in Monday afternoon's series-finale, I expect Seattle to have other ideas. The Mariners have the right pitcher on the mound to stem the tide in Logan Gilbert. He's arguably been their best starter all season, checking in with a 3.46 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while holding opponents to just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Mariners are 4-1 in Gilbert's five career outings against the Angels with three of those wins coming by at least two runs. Jose Suarez will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding north of 3.9 runs per nine innings. The Mariners chased him after 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 win here in Anaheim back on August 16th. While things have gone well for the Angels in this series, their bullpen still entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. The Mariners 'pen went into Sunday's contest with a 3.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only six blown on the road this season. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

This is a smash spot for the 49ers as they return home following last week's ugly loss in Chicago to host the Seahawks, playing on a short week following Monday's emotionally-thrilling but draining win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Seattle victory on Monday had more to do with Denver miscues than anything else. Credit the Seahawks to getting off to a strong start in that game, jumping ahead 7-0 on their first drive and never really looking back from there. This game figures to feature a much different game script as the 49ers should be able to impose their will on both sides of the football. Trey Lance critics have been out in full force this week. It's unfair really as few quarterbacks would have been able to find much success in last Sunday's miserable weather (and field) conditions in Chicago. I anticipate Lance looking much more comfortable back at home this Sunday and with a strong performance should stave off calls for Jimmy G for at least one more week. We're always looking to fade teams off emotional highs early in the season and that's certainly the case with the Seahawks - a team that likely experienced their 'Super Bowl' on Monday night. Expect Geno Smith to be brought back to Earth by the 49ers vaunted defensive front at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon, noting that the 49ers are 23-7 ATS the last 30 times they've come off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.8 points in that situation. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Jacksonville plus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts are in tough due to injuries on Sunday afternoon as they'll be without Shaquille Leonard and Michael Pittman Jr., among others. This was already going to be a tough spot for Indianapolis as it comes off a highly-disappointing tie on the road against Houston last Sunday. The Jags didn't look great in a season-opening loss in Washington but I do think we'll see gradual improvement from them on both sides of the football under new head coach Doug Pederson. Here, in their home opener there's reason for optimism as they face a depleted Colts squad that is ripe for the picking in Week 2. Already severely limited with his supporting cast, the absence of Pittman looms large over the Colts offense led by Matt Ryan. Yes, Jonathan Taylor is capable of shouldering even more of the load but you can be sure the Jags will be stacking the box to bottle him up. Taylor is a much better running back playing from ahead than behind (as are most backs) and I expect that to be evident on Sunday afternoon. Take Jacksonville (8*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

With T.J. Watt sidelined and Najee Harris severely banged-up the Steelers just don't have a lot of redeeming qualities as they return home off last Sunday's stunning upset win over the defending AFC champion Bengals in Cincinnati. Credit the Steelers for gutting out a win in that overtime game but let's face it, the result was gift-wrapped by the Bengals, who looked completely out of sorts on both sides of the football. Here, the Steelers have the benefit of returning home but do so against a Patriots squad that has a foul taste in its mouth off last Sunday's divisional road loss in Miami. Whiel the Pats offense certainly has plenty of warts, I don't think it is as bad as it is being made out to be. Xavien Howard blanketed Devante Parker in last Sunday's game and Mac Jones struggled to find consistent options to pass to and the ground game wasn't able to thrive trailing for much of the contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Patriots defense and ground attack comes up big against a Steelers squad that quite simply doesn't match up well on either side of the football. Pittsburgh's offensive line is still a mess and I have little faith in QB Mitchell Trubisky holding down the starting job for more than the first few games this season. Defensively, T.J. Watt is the Steelers engine and his absence can't be understated. The Pittsburgh secondary came up big last Sunday but that had a lot to do with Watt pressuring Joe Burrow into ill-advised throws. Both of these teams probably deserve to be 1-1 through two weeks and I'm confident that's how it will play out. Take New England (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Diego State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

After dropping a tough 29-26 decision against Florida at The Swamp back in Week 1, Utah needed a big victory to feel good about itself again last Saturday and it delivered just that to the tune of a 73-7 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Now comes a tougher matchup against San Diego State but I’m confident the Utes will be up to the challenge. Utah left no doubt in last week’s contest, scoring five offensive touchdowns (and adding a field goal) in a 14-minute span in the second quarter. I liked the way the Utes continued to pour it on late in that game, adding three more touchdowns in the final 23 minutes, even with the outcome having long been decided. There were certainly some signs of rust offensively, particularly early on against Florida but that has clearly been taken care of. San Diego State opened with a 38-20 drubbing at the hands of Arizona before rebounding with a 38-7 win over Idaho State last week. Note that it took the Aztecs nearly 10 minutes before they scored their first offensive touchdown in that win over Idaho State and that came on the sort of defensive breakdown you just won’t see from Utah. There was also a stretch where the Aztecs were held out of the end zone for 35 minutes in that contest - not encouraging considering that was against the likes of FCS squad Idaho State. The jury is still out as to whether former Virginia Tech standout QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. San Diego State always brings a solid defense to the table but here it will be dealing with its toughest offensive opponent to date, and we’ll note that it yielded an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in its season-opener against Arizona prior to last week’s victory. Take Utah (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Air Force at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won with Air Force in its rout of Colorado last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Falcons as they head to Laramie to take on Wyoming on Friday. This projects are a relatively low-scoring game with a total in the mid-to-high 40's, which obviously favors the Cowboys catching north of two touchdowns. Air Force has averaged 27.8 points the last 67 times it has played with the total set between 42.5 and 49 points. Note that these teams match up every year in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has scored more than 28 points just once in the last 14 meetings. The only time it did so it still scored 'only' 31 points. That might not be enough to cover the number here. Wyoming already has three games under its belt and seems to have found its identity, pounding the football with a terrific ground game led by RB Titus Swen. You can run on this Air Force defense noting that it has allowed FCS squad Northern Iowa and Colorado to each gain exactly 119 rushing yards, despite negative game script for both of those teams in lopsided contests in favor of the Falcons. Run the football, move the chains and effectively shorten the game. That has to be the gameplan for the Cowboys here and I believe it's one they can execute. When playing on the road off an ATS win, Air Force has outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.2 points (67-game sample size). Take Wyoming (10*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:20 pm et on Friday.

The Braves have lost four of their last five games but they had the benefit of an off-day following a long road trip yesterday and I expect them to right the ship on Friday against division-rival Philadelphia. N.L. Cy Young candidate Max Fried would seem to be the right guy to have on the mound to start the turn-around. Fried checks in with a 2.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with the Braves winning 11 of his 16 home starts this season. The last time he pitched against Philadelphia, the Braves fell by a 6-4 score on the road. It was still a fine outing for Fried as he allowed just three earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter over six innings. His counterpart on Friday will be fellow left-hander Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. He's had an up-and-down season and should be in tough here as the Braves get their fourth look at him, having already plated 12 runs in 16 innings against him this season. Note that of Suarez's nine team losses this season, eight of them have come by multiple runs. The only one that didn't was a game where Philadelphia didn't score a run in a 1-0 defeat against Cincinnati. The Braves two previous victories against Suarez this season came by scores of 8-4 and 4-1. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

Europa League Game of the Month. My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals over Manchester United at 12:45 pm et on Thursday.

We won with Sheriff Tiraspol plus a half-goal in an away match against Omonia in Europa League action last week. Here, we get Tiraspol playing on its home soil in Moldova, knowing it has a monumental opportunity to stage an upset against mighty Manchester United. Sheriff checks in having reeled off three consecutive shutout victories, undefeated across its last eight matches. Manchester United dropped a 1-0 decision against Real Sociedad last week and now faces an uphill battle to climb the Group E standings. While the Red Devils are being priced as a massive favorite here, I believe Tiraspol is well-positioned due to its stingy nature. Note that Sheriff has seen four of its last five matches total less than 2.5 goals. Here, we're being given a massive head start with a two-goal cushion with the home side. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals (10*).

N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants got past the Braves by a 3-2 score last night, taking advantage of an off night from the Atlanta offense. Here, I look for the visiting Braves to answer back and bring an end to their three-game slide. As I've talked about all season long, Braves starter Kyle Wright is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. With that being said, he's coming off his worst outing of the season last week against the A's. He also struggled in his lone previous start against the Giants this season. Noting that he has posted a 3.69 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season, I'm confident he'll make the necessary adjustments and bounce back here. Jakob Junis will counter for the Giants. He's labored through his last two starts, lasting just 4 1/3 innings in each outing. He checks in with a 3.82 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.1 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants bullpen held up well last night but still owns a less than impressive 4.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at home this season. The Braves 'pen on the other hand has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while converting 26 saves and blowing only nine on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The hard-charging White Sox still believe they have a shot at the postseason but this is precisely the type of matchup they'll need to take advantage of if they're to play their way into October. The Rockies are coming off a 4-2 homestand but the road hasn't been kind to them this season (that's nothing new). Colorado checks in a woeful 21-46 away from home this season where it has been outscored by 2.1 runs per game. Chad Kuhl will get the start for the visiting Rockies. He had a solid start to his Rockies tenure earlier this season but the wheels have since fallen off. Kuhl owns an ugly 6.29 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 13 road starts, averaging fewer than five innings per outing. That spells trouble when you consider Colorado's bullpen has posted a collective 5.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Michael Kopech hasn't been much better for Chicago but at least he's pitched well here at home where he owns a 2.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts. Behind him is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a collective 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

AFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've actually seen this line float down to the key number of -7 since opening. Last year, the Texans were a popular fade in Week 1 as they hosted the Jaguars. What did Houston do? It blew the doors off of its hapless opponent, crushing Jacksonville bettors in the process (myself included). It's a much different story this year. The general consensus is that the arrow is pointing up in Houston with seemingly only positive news coming out of camp and the preseason. I see this as a tough opening week matchup for the Texans, however, as they host the Colts and their new-look offense run by veteran QB Matt Ryan. I say new-look but it should be more of the same for Indianapolis with RB Jonathan Taylor once again the focal point. He absolutely ripped through the Texans in two meetings last season, gaining over 300 yards on 47 carries while also finding the end zone four times. That's not to say the Colts can't beat the Texans through the air as well. Houston's weakness on defense should lie in the secondary, where it used an early draft pick on CB Derek Stingley. While the Colts passing game doesn't look all that imposing at first glance, guys like WR Michael Pittman Jr. and TE Mo Alie-Cox have splash potential here. Houston's offense is going to be better this year, I'm confident of that as QB Davis Mills settles into his first full season as starter. This isn't the game where we see it though, at least not in my opinion, as the Colts defense put the clamps on Mills last year and should have little trouble doing so again here. Note that key run-stopper Shaquille Leonard was a full participant in Colts practice on Wednesday. While the Indianapolis defense does leave a lot to be desired at the back-end, its zone scheme works in its favor against a limited Texans receiving corps headlined by Brandin Cooks. There will be spots where we can successfully back Houston in an underdog role, likely sooner rather than later, but not this week. Take Indianapolis (10*).

CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Calgary at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The Elks have very little left to play for as they sit in last place in the West Division. A home game against the rival Stampeders, playing with triple in-season revenge, should get their juices flowing, however. Edmonton kept things close in Monday's matchup between these two teams in Calgary, ultimately losing by just eight points. Note that the Stampeders defense has sagged as the season has gone on. They've now allowed 20+ pass completions in 10 consecutive games. On the flip side, the Stamps have scored 20+ points in four straight contests. They accomplished that feat only once previously this season and went on to score just 19 points in their next game. I saw some positives from the Elks offense on Monday as they gained 74 yards on 18 rush attempts and QB Taylor Cornelius completed 22-of-33 passes for 257 yards - the second straight games in which the Elks threw for 250+ yards. Take Edmonton (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over Houston at 4 pm et on Saturday.

While Houston enters this game nationally-ranked I believe Texas Tech being installed as the favorite is warranted. The Cougars barely pulled out a 37-35 win over Texas-San Antonio last Saturday. While the Roadrunners were going to be a formidable opponent regardless, there was reason for concern around Houston coming out of that contest. The Cougars didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter and then proceeded to allow three consecutive UTSA touchdowns to fall behind 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. While they did ultimately wake up and rally, they also allowed UTSA to march down the field in just 20 seconds and kick a game-tying field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. It was a shaky performance all around from Houston. Texas Tech on the other hand looked like a well-oiled machine in a 63-10 rout of FCS squad Murray State. The Red Raiders did lose QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury in the victory but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and completed 14-of-17 passes for 221 yards and four touchdowns in relief. He saw plenty of playing time during his freshman season last year and I'm confident the offense will keep rolling along with Shough sidelined. Even with third-string QB Behren Morton in the game in the fourth quarter last Saturday, the Red Raiders were still able to tack on another touchdown. Texas Tech defeated Houston 38-21 in last year's meeting at AT&T Stadium. As much as Houston would like to exact its revenge here, I believe it will be hard-pressed to do so. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Louisville at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While it garnered little attention leading up to last week's season-opener, UCF looks like the real deal here in 2022. The Knights kicked off their campaign with a resounding 56-10 win over FCS squad South Carolina State. While the opposition in that game left a lot to be desired there was still a lot to like about the Knights performance. It took them less than a quarter to jump ahead by three touchdowns and while the offense was humming, I was equally impressed by the defense. UCF held South Carolina State out of the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter and didn't yield another score after that. Now comes an admittedly tougher matchup against Louisville on Friday night at the Bounce House. The Cardinals are coming off a demoralizing season-opening loss at Syracuse and while it's extremely early you can't help but feel head coach Scott Satterfield's days as sideline chief could be numbered. Louisville couldn't muster any sort of offensive attack in that loss, scoring a touchdown with just over a minute remaining in the first quarter but then not coming up with a single score the rest of the way. I also didn't like the way the defense folded in the fourth quarter, allowing a pair of touchdowns when the game was still in reach. Noting that Louisville took last year's meeting between these two teams in Kentucky, I look for the revenge-minded Knights to get some payback here. Take Central Florida (10*).

Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

We're being offered excellent value with Napoli catching half a goal in the first leg of this Champions League matchup on Wednesday. Keep in mind, this match will take place in Naples, where Napoli took down Liverpool on two previous occasions in Champions League action in 2018 and 2019. Napoli enters Wednesday's match riding an incredible 16-match undefeated streak. Also note that Liverpool has conceded first in five of its last seven matches overall. Give me the younger Italian side with a chip on its shoulder as an underdog on its home pitch on Wednesday. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (10*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Army plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday.

It was a tremendous run for Coastal Carolina, going an incredible 14-2 over the last two seasons. Prior to that we saw three consecutive 2-6 campaigns from the Chanticleers as they made the adjustment to life in FBS. While they're unlikely to return to those depths again, there's simply too much turnover to instill much confidence entering the 2022 campaign. I see this as a tough opening week matchup against an experienced Army squad that will continue its ascension this year.

The Black Knights are no doubt still stinging from last December's loss to Navy but they responded with a huge Bowl victory over Missouri and now draw an opponent that will certainly have their full attention to start this season.

Army returns the majority of the offense that rolled through the opposition last year but I believe the defense could be the key. The Black Knights got torched through the air in 2021 but now the seondary returns a ton of experience and the performance of that unit could be the difference-maker between a good and a great 2022 season. The good news here is that Coastal Carolina is working in some new pieces at wide receiver after losing a ton of talent from last year's offense. While the experience at quarterback helps the Chanticleers cause with Grayson McCall back in the fold, his supporting cast might take some time to come around.

Coastal Carolina is forced to make wholesales changes to its linebacking corps this season and that hurts in a matchup like this. Look for Army's triple-option to get rolling and ultimately help the Black Knights pull away for a key road victory to open the season. Take Army (10*).

A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

You could certainly make the argument that the Royals are the superior team in this matchup based on recent form. It's not an argument at all as to who the better starting pitcher is in this matchup, at least this season, as Brady Singer has been a pleasant surprise for Kansas City while Lucas Giolito has fallen flat on his face for the White Sox.

Singer enters this start sporting a 3.55 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. He just faced the White Sox on August 9th, giving up only one earned run over 7 1/3 innings of work. For his career, he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven outings against Chicago.

We'll back the Royals in the first five innings only here as their bullpen continues to struggle and is quite simply among the worst in the league in most categories.

Lucas Giolito owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings for the White Sox this season. While he is coming off one of his best outings of the season, that's not saying much as he gave up one earned run on four hits while striking out only three and walking two in 6 1/3 innings against the Orioles last time out. In two previous starts against Kansas City this season, Giolito has allowed four earned runs in 10 innings. Take Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jays have been blanked in the first two games of this series bringing an end to what was a terrific run over the previous week. Here, I do look for Toronto to salvage the series-finale, and do so in convincing fashion.

Tucker Davidson will get another turn in the rotation for the Angels. Things haven't gone particularly well for him this season as he sports a 5.63 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 6.23 runs per nine innings. He's not really fooling any opposing hitters, having topped out at three strikeouts in his six previous starts this season.

Ross Stripling will counter for Toronto. He's been their most reliable starter this season, entering Sunday's start with a 2.80 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.22 runs per nine innings. The Jays have been bitten by the long ball in this series but Stripling has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, yielding just 0.6 home runs per nine innings.

The bullpens are virtually a wash based on recent form. I feel Toronto has enough of a starting pitching edge to warrant backing them on the run-line here. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*).

East Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

These two teams have split a pair of meetings this season with both successfully defending their home field. Here, I look for a reversal of sorts as the Ti-Cats look to take a step toward taking control of the lowly East Division with a key road victory.

Hamilton's offense has shown flashes of brilliance to be sure. The Tiger-Cats ground attack has led the way at times but last week they threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. All indications are that QB Dane Evans will be good to go for this one and I expect him to step in and perform well against an Argos defense that has been inconsistent at best. Note that teams that have chosen to run on the Argos have been successful, including the Ti-Cats, who gained 149 yards on just 21 attempts against them just two games back.

Offensively, it seems as if Toronto has gone off a cliff. Yes, the Argos scored 34 points in a win over these same Ti-Cats earlier this month but that had more to do with Hamilton's inability to keep its offense on the field than anything else. Note that the Argos have gained fewer than 70 yards rushing in four straight games and now face a Ti-Cats squad that hasn't yielded more than 90 yards rushing since way back in Week 1. I get the feeling that Hamilton's defense will make life miserable on Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson after getting torched for 382 yards through the air against Montreal last week. Hamilton has still held all seven opponents to 25 or fewer pass completions this season. Toronto needed a whopping 43 pass attempts to get to just 276 passing yards against Calgary last week.

Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off two losses in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points on average in that situation. Take Hamilton (10*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We actually missed with the Phillies in this same starting pitching matchup last week in Cincinnati but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here, albeit backing Philadelphia laying a half-run in the first five innings only this time around.

Nick Lodolo will look to build off of his seven shutout innings he tossed against the Phillies last time out. That start came at home. The road hasn't been so kind to the rookie left-hander as he checks in with an 8.48 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in three outings away from home this season. On the campaign, Lodolo owns a pedestrian 4.12 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 4.45 runs per nine innings.

Ranger Suarez is having another fine season for the Phillies. He sports a 3.68 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 3.86 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds average 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season (compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg) and just 3.6 runs per game on the road, entering last night's action.

We'll play the first five innings only as the Phillies bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 5.72 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Contrast that with the Reds 'pen which posted a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

A.L. Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays off last night's tough extra innings loss.

Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.8 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing the left-hander for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back in late July (two earned runs in seven innings).

The Kansas City bullpen has posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven contests.

Drew Rasmussen will counter for Tampa Bay. We won with the Rays in his most recent start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Rasmussen owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings.

The Rays bullpen, despite coughing up last night's game in extras, has posted a solid 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Braves in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Mets on the run-line on Tuesday.

New York will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who will be out for revenge after giving up a whopping eight earned runs over just one inning against these same Braves two starts back. He bounced back nicely with a quality outing against the Reds last time out and I'm confident he can do a much better job against Atlanta this time around. Note that the last time he pitched here at Truist Park, he guided New York to a 3-1 victory last season. Walker enters this outing sporting a 3.61 FIP and 1.20 WHIP this season, yielding only 3.51 runs per nine innings.

Entering last night's contest, the Mets bullpen hadn't allowed a single earned run over its last seven games, posting a 0.92 WHIP over that stretch. New York's relief corps owns a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while converting 16 saves and blowing only six on the road this season (also entering last night's action).

Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He checks in with a 4.14 FIP and 1.21 WHIP, allowing 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets will be getting their third look at Morton this season having already plated nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in their previous two games against him.

Atlanta's bullpen has been terrific lately but has blown 11 saves (while converting 18) at home this season. Also note that the Braves relief corps has been a little more overworked than the Mets' lately, logging 27 1/3 innings over the last seven games, while New York's 'pen has been pressed into duty for less than 20 innings over the same stretch (entering this series). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*).

CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Saskatchewan at 10 pm et on Saturday.

This will be a rematch of a Week 1 clash between these two teams that saw Saskatchewan prevail by a 26-16 score. The Elks certainly weren't without their opportunities in that game as they were afforded 36 pass attempts in the loss. That's been a common theme for the Riders as they've struggled mightily to contain opposing passing games, yielding 33, 37, 38 and 33 pass attempts over their last four games with those four opponents completing 21, 26, 30 and 20 passes.

Meanwhile, the Riders offense has seemingly gotten worse with each passing week, going from 24 to 21 to 17 points over their last three games. While on paper, the Elks defense should offer a reprieve, I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field.

It's worth noting that Edmonton is as healthy as any team in the league right now. The Elks are just one game removed from holding Winnipeg to just 274 total yards (including 7-of-16 passing). They'll be out for revenge here and it's worth noting that prior to that first meeting between the teams this season, last year's two matchups were settled by just two and five points. Take Edmonton (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

I'm anticipating a lopsided result in favor of the Dodgers on Saturday in Kansas City as they send Andrew Heaney to the hill against Brad Keller of the Royals.

Heaney has been solid since returning from injury, posting a 2.34 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.25 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Heaney is an elite Dodgers bullpen that brought terrific form into this series having recorded a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games.

Brad Keller has endured another trying season for the Royals, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while giving up 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that the Dodgers are 53-21 and average 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season.

The Kansas City bullpen has struggled for much of the season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 10:15 pm et on Friday.

As we still don’t trust the Giants bullpen, we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with All-Star Carlos Rodon taking the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates.

Rodon enters Friday’s start sporting a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. He absolutely baffled the Pirates in a start against them earlier this season, tossing eight shutout innings of two-hit ball.

Bryse Wilson is one of the weakest links in the Pirates rotation and that’s saying something. He has recorded a 5.06 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season, yielding a whopping 6.82 runs per nine innings.

There’s no real advantage for the Giants in the later innings of this one as their bullpen continues to under-achieve, having posted a collective 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention converting only 10 saves at home this season (four blown). Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Astros added to the Rangers misery with a 7-5 victory last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday.

Texas will hand the ball to Glenn Otto. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Otto checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. He's given up 2.1 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 2.9 more walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on this night, Astros ace Justin Verlander.

Verlander is having another terrific campaign, having posted a 2.98 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while holding the opposition to just shy of 2.3 runs per nine innings. He's an A.L. Cy Young Award candidate once again to be sure.

Behind Verlander is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately and for much of the season, particularly at home. Over the last seven games, the Astros 'pen has recorded a collective 0.48 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Thursday.

I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Padres as they host the Rockies on Thursday afternoon in San Diego.

Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Interestingly, this will be his fourth start against the Padres this season and the Rockies have won each of the first three. I look for that streak to end here. Note that Freeland has posted a less than impressive 4.28 FIP and 1.34 WHIP this season while allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings.

Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has hit the skids again, recording a collective 5.47 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's action.

Newly-signed Joe Musgrove will be looking to prove he's worth the monster contract the Padres just gave him. He's well-positioned to do just that having posted a 3.26 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while holding opponents to only 2.97 runs per nine innings this season.

The Padres bullpen went through a recent rough stretch but has since turned it around again, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Here at home this season, the Padres have converted 14 saves while blowing only five (entering yesterday's action). Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Reds have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Marlins to bounce back with their ace on the hill on Wednesday.

Veteran left-hander Mike Minor gets another turn in the Reds rotation out of necessity only. He owns a 6.74 FIP and 1.58 WHIP while giving up north of 7.0 runs per nine innings this season. While the Marlins have struggled to put runs on the board against left-handed starting pitching, I'm confident they can get to Minor in this one.

Sandy Alcantara hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in his last couple of outings but his overall numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 2.87 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.41 runs per nine innings.

After dealing a pair of key bullpen arms to Toronto, I'm only interested in backing the Marlins in the first five innings in this one. We have a decisive enough edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup to lay the half-run with Miami in the first half here. Take Miami -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We’ll back the Brewers in this one, but rather than support them over the full nine innings we’ll lay the half-run with them in the first five frames only as I like the starting pitching edge but there’s little advantage in terms of the two bullpens.

Burnes owns a 2.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while giving up only 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. He’s faced the Pirates six times over the course of his career, recording a 2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Brewers winning five of those games. The concern is, the Brewers bullpen has posted a 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. The Pirates ‘pen on the other hand has quietly turned it around after a rough stretch, recording a 2.96 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over its last seven contests.

Bryse Wilson gets the start for Pittsburgh. He has endured a tough big league season having posted a 4.68 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while giving up a whopping 7.44 runs per nine innings. The Brewers will be seeing him for the second time and I expect them to have greater success after reaching him for just two earned runs over six innings in a 7-4 loss back on July 2nd. Note that despite that recent solid outing, in four career starts against Milwaukee, Wilson owns a 5.21 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this one sets up for the Mets, at least early on, as they head to Washington to open a series against the Nationals on Monday.

Max Scherzer will take the ball for New York. He's been terrific since returning from injury, lowering his FIP to 2.50 and WHIP to 0.90 on the season. The Mets ace has allowed just 2.2 runs per nine innings this season.

With that being said, there's no real advantage for the Mets in the later innings of this one as their bullpen has been good, but not on the same level as the Nats' relief corps lately. Washington's 'pen has posted a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. At home this season, it has recorded a 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Patrick Corbin gets the start for Washington on Monday. To say his season has been a disaster might be an understatement. The left-hander owns a 4.62 FIP and 1.77 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.43 runs per nine innings. The Mets last saw him back on May 31st and tagged him for seven earned runs on 12 hits over just 4 1/3 innings in a 10-0 rout. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 2:05 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Yankees on the run-line last night as they exploded in the eighth inning in an eventual lopsided victory, and I won’t hesitate to come right back with the same play on Saturday afternoon.

Jon Heasley will take the ball for the Royals. His rookie campaign has been a disaster in many regards. He has posted a 5.49 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while giving up a whopping 5.85 runs per nine innings. Heasley isn’t likely to get much help from a Royals bullpen that owns a 4.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action).

Nestor Cortes Jr. will counter for New York. The All-Star has recorded a 3.41 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while yielding only 2.57 runs per nine innings this season. Unlike the Royals, the Yankees have a tremendous bullpen that owns a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I’ll back the Rays in the first five innings in Baltimore on Tuesday as they hand the ball to their ace and American League All-Star Game starter Shane McClanahan.

The left-hander didn’t exactly have a banner performance in his lone inning of work in the All-Star Game but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s having a fantastic season, having posted a 2.42 FIP and 0.80 WHIP while giving up only 2.11 runs per nine innings. He should be happy to be facing the Orioles here, noting that he owns a 2.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five career outings against them.

Orioles starter Spenser Watkins hasn’t been nearly as successful against the Rays. In five career starts against them he owns an ugly 7.71 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Watkins has struggled as a whole this season, posting a 4.50 FIP and 1.37 WHIP, yielding just north of 4.6 runs per nine innings. This will be Tampa Bay’s sixth time seeing the right-hander since the start of last season and it’s worth noting that the Rays have been better against righties than lefties this season, averaging 4.5 runs per game against RH starting pitching compared to their 4.2 rpg overall.

By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid the bullpen matchup as the O’s have one of the best relief corps’ in baseball and bring terrific form into this series having recorded a 2.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s contest). The Rays on the other hand have blown exactly as many saves as they’ve converted on the road this season (nine). Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

Interleague first five innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles +0.5 runs first five innings over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday.

The Angels own a considerable starting pitching advantage in the opener of this interleague series in Atlanta on Friday. I don’t believe it’s being properly reflected in the ‘first five innings’ line and will take advantage by grabbing the insurance half-run with the visiting Halos.

Shohei Ohtani appeared in the All-Star Game as a batter only, allowing him to start this series-opener on Friday. He’s done nothing but impress on the mound again this season, recording a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.27 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing just under 2.5 runs per nine innings.

By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid an Angels bullpen that has posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just eight saves while blowing six on the road this season. The Braves are in slightly better current form in that department with their relief corps having recorded a 0.88 WHIP over the last seven contests.

Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta on Friday. He’s logged a pedestrian 4.20 FIP and 1.25 WHIP this season, yielding 4.55 runs per nine innings along the way. Take Los Angeles +0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday.

I certainly won't make a habit of fading the Dodgers but in this case I'm making an exception as I like the way this one sets up for the streaking Giants - at least early on.

San Francisco will have a considerable edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup as it sends left-hander Carlos Rodon to the hill against Mitch White of the Dodgers. Rodon was named to the N.L. All-Star team but didn't pitch after taking the mound last weekend against the Brewers. He took a hard-luck no decision in that contest, allowing only one earned run over five innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. Rodon checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.14 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.74 runs per nine innings.

The reason I'm playing the first five innings only here is that the Giants bullpen has struggled, posting a collective 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with just 11 saves converted and seven blown on the road this season.

Mitch White has posted a 4.25 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, giving up 4.6 runs per nine innings. We have seen White stretched out a little more in terms of pitch count in recent starts and that actually works in our favor here as it likely keeps the terrific Dodgers bullpen out of the picture until after the fifth inning. Note that Los Angeles' relief corps owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven games.

I'll grab the half-run as insurance at a reasonable price with the Giants, taking advantage of the fact that line is being offered given I can make a strong case for the Giants being favored in this spot. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday.

The Lions have arguably been the most impressive team in the CFL through the first month of the season, reeling off three straight wins while scoring a whopping 137 points. It's worth noting, however, that they've yet to play a team outside the East Division. There's no question, the West is best when it comes to the CFL - at least so far this season. The Lions should find that out on Saturday as they host 4-0 Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are the two-time defending Grey Cup champions and look every bit the part of a championship contender again this year. Winnipeg is playing on a very short week here after dispatching the Argos by a score of 23-22 on Monday. I don't mind that though as I think it helps the Bombers stay focused on this business-like two-game road trip. The Lions were barely able to escape with a 34-31 win over the still-winless RedBlacks in Ottawa last week. We saw some regression from the B.C. defense in that game and now I think we see it from its offense as it takes on arguably the best defense in the CFL. This matchup was no contest last season as the Bombers swept the two-game series, including a 30-9 victory here in B.C. While the Lions are certainly a better team in 2022 I'm not convinced they've completely closed the gap. Take Winnipeg (10*).

MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Marlins last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Angels, on the run-line, on Wednesday. Los Angeles is struggling right now having lost four games in a row. After getting blown out in the first two of those four losses they've been close in the last two, dropping two and one-run decisions. Here, I expect them to finally get over the hump with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 2.68 runs per nine innings. He's been lights out over his last few starts in particular, not allowing a single earned run over those three outings. It's been a much different story for Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. He has posted a 4.75 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.0 runs per nine frames this season. While the Marlins do have the advantage in the later innings given their bullpen's recent form, I'm not convinced that's enough to make the difference here. Noting that all but one of the Angels 16 road wins this season have come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Halos on Wednesday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Sun have won just twice in their last five games, including an narrow two-point victory over Washington last time out, I believe they're on the cusp of going on another run. Connecticut has certainly been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 31, 27, 32 and 30 field goals over its last four games. Now it draws a favorable matchup against a Dallas defense that has yielded its last two opponents 34 and 37 made field goals (on 76+ attempts). In fact, the Wings have allowed 28+ made field goals in 10 of their last 11 contests. Only one of Connecticut's last five opponents has managed to knock down more than 27 field goals. I like the way the Sun have been limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 70 FG attempts in six consecutive games. While Dallas did make good on 33-of-66 FG attempts last time out against Los Angeles, it is just one game removed from shooting a miserable 17-of-59 against a subpar Minnesota defense. Dallas has made 30+ field goals only twice in its last five contests. Dallas snuck away with a victory in Connecticut in the first meeting between these two teams this season but revenge was sweet for the Sun as they won by 31 points two nights later. Here, we'll note that Connecticut is on a 19-6 ATS run against Western Conference opponents, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.4 points. Take Connecticut (10*).

MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I like the advantage the Angels have with Saturday’s starting pitching matchup as they send Patrick Sandoval to the hill against Jose Urquidy. Sandoval has been quietly impressive, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.05 runs per nine innings. Urquidy has disappointed, posting a 4.83 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while yielding 4.6 runs per nine frames. Note that the Los Angeles bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). The Astros ‘pen is in poor form right now, recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (10*).

Interleague First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep at home against the Astros but I look for them to rebound on Friday, at least early on, against the Rangers. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. He's had command issues this season and checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing more than five walks per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of 5.5 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Mets starter Chris Bassitt should be happy to face the Rangers - an old A.L. West division rival from his days with the Oakland A's. Bassitt owns a 3.93 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's pitched well lately, allowing only six earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Rangers relief corps has admittedly been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over its last seven games. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I can’t help but feel Clayton Kershaw has become an undervalued commodity at this stage of his storied career (you might not know it by the moneyline in this game but I believe it could be even higher). We successfully backed Kershaw in his most recent start against the Reds and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as he takes the ball at Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday. Kershaw settled in nicely in his second start since returning from the I.L., holding Cincinnati to one earned run over six innings, and brings a 2.44 FIP and 0.91 WHIP into this contest. Opponents have reached Kershaw for just 2.0 runs per nine innings this season. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He owns a pedestrian 4.14 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. Freeland has allowed 2.9 more hits and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Making the majority of his starts at Coors Field certainly factors in but Freeland has given up just under 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Of course, Los Angeles should have the edge in the later innings in this one as well with a bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies ‘pen entered this series having recorded a 5.49 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday.

The Storm have quietly rounded back into form, going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS over their last seven games, including back-to-back SU and ATS victories entering Saturday's contest against the Sparks. Seattle has been 'filling it up', knocking down 37, 29, 28, 28, 32 and 31 field goals over its last six games and should be able to keep it going against a weak Los Angeles defense that has yielded 32+ made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Sparks offense has been wildly inconsistent lately. After scoring 82 and 84 points over a two-game stretch it was held to just 59 points on 26-of-79 shooting against a vulnerable Chicago defense last time out. The Storm took the first meeting between these two teams by just three points back in May. Keep in mind, that matchup came at a time when Seattle was playing an uneven brand of basketball. The Sparks shot the lights out in that contest, something I don't anticipate them doing here. Take Seattle (10*).

MLB First Five Innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Saturday.

I'll lay the half-run with the White Sox in the first five innings against the Orioles on Saturday as they look to get back on track after dropping the first two games of this series in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Spenser Watkins gets a spot start for the Orioles. He's made eight previous starts this season and they haven't gone well. Watkins checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. You could argue that we're talking about a fairly small sample size but it's worth noting that Watkins also posted a 6.37 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings of work last season. His counterpart today will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn hasn't pitched well in his first two starts back from injury. With that being said, I think there were positives to take away from his last outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up just four hits over five innings in that contest with the Sox prevailing by an 8-7 score. The White Sox bats have certainly come alive in Lynn's previous two outings, producing a grand total of 17 runs. Lynn faced the Orioles once last year and tossed five shutout innings in an eventual 3-1 victory. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here with the O's 'pen having posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over its last seven games. The Chicago 'pen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season with only nine saves converted compared to eight blown. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Saturday.

As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here, we find the Avalanche coming off six consecutive victories, a streak that I believe is getting a little long in the tooth. The Lightning couldn't have got off to much worse of a start in Game 1 yet still ended up pushing the Avs to overtime before falling by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay checks in 26-7 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Better still, the Bolts are 30-9 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 33-15 when trailing a playoff series, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. While Colorado has now taken consecutive meetings against the Lightning on home ice, Tampa Bay is no stranger to winning in Denver, having reeled off five consecutive road wins in this series previously. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (10*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Friday.

We won with the Phillies last night as they trounced the Nationals in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Friday afternoon in Game 1 of the day-night double-header. Ranger Suarez will take the ball for Philadelphia. His numbers certainly don't jump off the page this season, but they're far superior to those of Nationals starter Joan Adon, who inexplicably remains in the rotation despite a 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Suarez checks in with a sub-4.00 career FIP with that number sitting at 4.17 this season. Again, his numbers don't really pop but Adon has allowed north of 10 hits and just shy of six walks, not to mention 7.3 runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now the Phillies are locked in at the plate, entering last night's game hitting .285 as a team over the last week. They also entered last night's action averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road while the Nats average just 3.7 runs per contest at home. While the Phillies bullpen is always a concern, I expect them to do enough offensively that it won't matter on Friday afternoon. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (10*).

NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday.

Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*).

MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is off to a terrific start this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings of work. Of course, he's been able to pitch comfortably in both of those outings as his team's bats absolutely exploded, putting up 14 runs against Colorado and 12 runs against Washington. I expect a much different story to unfold today as the Marlins go up against Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander hardly pitched over the last two seasons but has come back strong here in 2022, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. The Astros check in 7-1 over his last eight outings, winning four of those games by at least two runs, including a 4-1 victory over Seattle earlier this week - a game in which Verlander allowed only one earned run while striking out a season-high 12 in seven innings. Here, we'll note that the Marlins are a woeful 1-10 when coming off five consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that situation. After dropping the first two games in this series we'll look for the Astros to bounce back big on Sunday. Take Houston -1.5 (10*).