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My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I’m not going to overthink this one. The Washington Football Team made things a lot closer than they probably should have been in last week’s home loss to the Cowboys. Now, likely missing a number of key cogs against the Eagles, on the road no less, I look for them to struggle mightily to stay competitive. Philadelphia is as healthy as you could hope for in the midst of this Omicron wave. And the Eagles obviously still have everything to play for at this point. Only Dallas miscues on offense kept the Football Team from getting embarrassed last Sunday. I can’t see them benefitting from the same against the Eagles though. Philadelphia has won three of its last four games with the lone loss coming in a clear letdown spot against the Giants on the road. They also put up 30+ points in those three wins and should be able to approach that number again here. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Wyoming at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes go from being favored by 3.5 points in the MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois to catching the same number of points against a Wyoming squad that has lost six of its last eight games. The common line of thinking here is that the Cowboys have the superior defense and will therefore be able to control proceedings in this contest. I'm not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, the best two offenses Wyoming faced this season were arguably Fresno State and Boise State and they lost those two games by a combined 40-13 score. Note that the Cowboys want to run the football on offense. In fact, they didn't complete more than 18 passes on a single occasion this season. The problem is the Golden Flashes are more than used to facing similar offenses. Five opponents ran the football 40+ times against them over the course of the season. They've allowed 4.7 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.4 ypr. The Flashes have faced an average of 41 rush attempts per game and Wyoming runs the football an average of, you guessed it, 41 times per game. Interestingly, Wyoming's run defense hasn't been a whole lot better, allowing 4.4 ypr against opponents that average 4.1 ypr. It's the Cowboys pass defense that has been a difference-maker, but here I'm willing to bet on the talent of the Golden Flashes aerial attack led by QB Dustin Crum. Kent State head coach Sean Lewis has come on and turned the program around. The Flashes went 2-10 in his first season in 2018 but have posted three consecutive winning seasons since, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (the program's first ever Bowl victory). Take Kent State (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While the Bears are ravaged by Covid-related absences I'm willing to take a flyer on them grabbing nearly a full touchdown at home against what I consider to be an untrustworthy Vikings squad. Minnesota's most lopsided road win this season came by only seven points against the Chargers last month. The Vikes defense remains extremely vulnerable and it's obvious that the Bears offense is on an uptick right now, having scored 22 and 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Packers - two very difficult matchups - over the last two weeks. Rookie QB Justin Fields is starting to build a good rapport with his receivers and I expect to see further progression against a very beatable Vikings secondary here. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by a grand total of just 14 points with the Bears winning two of those games outright. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Tulsa minus the points over Old Dominion at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

I believe there's a talent gap that isn't being properly reflected in this line. Tulsa had high hopes this season but a very difficult schedule ended up contributing to a 6-6 campaign. After a bitter two-point defeat in last year's Armed Forces Bowl you can be sure the Golden Hurricane's wealth of returning talent will be up for this game - even if it is 'only' the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Old Dominion reached this game thanks to reeling off five straight wins to close out the regular season. Of course, those wins came against a weak slate of opponents - the toughest being Middle Tennessee State, which the Monarchs upset as a three-point underdog. While Tulsa QB Davis Brin struggled for the most part this season, I'm not sure this is his game to win. Instead I look for the Golden Hurricane to lean heavily on their excellent ground attack led by RB Sharmari Brooks, along with their experienced defense which will be looking to make a statement after not quite living up to expectations over the course of the season. Underdogs have ruled Bowl season so far, but I look for Tulsa to reverse that trend on Monday. Take Tulsa (8*).

My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Upset wins over USC, Utah and Arizona State have had plenty of bettors high on the Oregon State Beavers this season. What I see, however, is a team that had a rather uneven season and lopsided victories were few and far between over the last two months of the campaign. The Beavers did beat Stanford by 21 and aforementioned Arizona State by 14 in November but they did so by holding those two teams to 14 and 10 points, respectively and both wins came at home. I would certainly expect Utah State to score far more than that here, and I'm confident the upstart Aggies can stay inside what I consider to be an inflated pointspread. Utah State has gone a perfect 7-0 away from home this season, capping it off with a Mountain West Conference championship in a decisive win over San Diego State. I absolutely love the Aggies senior class and fully expect them to go out on a high note here. First-year head coach Blake Anderson was involved in a swirl of controversy this week when a recording of his comments regarding sexual assault victims (from an address to his team at Fall camp) came out earlier this week. If anything I would expect that controversy to perhaps galvanize this team even more heading into Saturday's game. Take Utah State (9*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between the Chiefs and Chargers on Thursday night and will grab the points accordingly with Los Angeles in an underdog role. The Chargers have been frustratingly inconsistent this season. One thing that has been consistent about Los Angeles since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback last season is its ability to play the Chiefs tough, however. I expect nothing different here. Yes, the Chiefs are rolling right now. They've won six straight games, including four in a row ATS. Keep in mind, five of those games were played at Arrowhead. The only road win over that stretch came against a reeling Raiders squad. The Chargers are banged-up for this one but will get WR Keenan Allen back and it sounds like RB Austin Ekeler is more likely to play than not. The Chiefs are missing some key cogs as well, including DT Chris Jones. Here, we'll note that Kansas City has averaged just 18.7 points and outscored opponents by a narrow margin of 0.9 points the last six times it has played on the road after a victory by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Chargers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points the last 25 times they've played at home with a posted total of 49.5 points or higher. Take Los Angeles (8*).

NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*).

NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Montana plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Friday.

I'll take a shot with the underdog Grizzlies on Friday night as they travel to Virginia to challenge James Madison. Montana sports the number-five rank in FCS while James Madison is number-two. Montana hasn't lost a game since October 16th at the hands of Sacramento State. Its only other defeat this season came against Eastern Washington back on October 2nd - a loss it avenged in the playoffs last week as it prevailed 57-41 in the rematch. While the Grizzlies offense has been lighting it up, I believe its defense can hang in this one as well. It will certainly be challenged against a Dukes squad that has put up 50+ points in three of its last four games. While JMU does sport the higher overall ranking, it has only faced three top-25 ranked FCS squads during its current seven-game winning streak and none of those opponents were ranked higher than 18th. The Dukes did defeat Weber State, which was at the time ranked number-nine, back in mid-September but the Wildcats didn't turn out to be nearly as good as most expected, losing five games and failing to reach the playoffs. The Dukes are certainly tough at home but not unbeatable as they fell against Villanova on this field back in October. I simply feel this battle-tested Montana squad (last two opponents have been number-three and number-four ranked teams in FCS) can give JMU a difficult test on Friday night and we're being given more than a touchdown to work with (at the time of writing). Take Montana (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

Seeing plenty of love for the Steelers catching points in this Thursday night matchup but I can't say I agree. Extended losing streaks have been few and far between for the Vikings over the years, noting that they're 57-33 ATS in their last 90 games following consecutive losses. They've yet to lose three games in a row this season despite their 5-7 record. Believe it or not they're still alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I look for them to come up big in this primetime game at home. Yes, Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen for this game. With that being said, backup RB Alexander Mattison has been every bit as effective as Cook while the duo of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are more than capable of picking up the slack in Thielen's absence. The Vikes defense is certainly a concern but let's not act like the Steelers 'D' has been iron clad either. Note that Pittsburgh's two highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last three games. Take Minnesota (8*).

MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This should be an entertaining affair between two teams that have brought a 'defense-optional' mentality to the table this season. I simply have more faith in the Panthers to get a few more stops than I do in the Demon Deacons to do so on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams come in sporting identical overall records but it's the Panthers that bring better form to the table. Wake Forest is just one game removed from dropping an ugly 48-27 decision against Clemson which as we know endured a down season. There was also a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill just a month ago as the Demon Deacons fell by a score of 58-55. Holding onto leads and keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a major problem for Wake Forest this season and it will undoubtedly have its hands full with Pitt on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off four straight wins and save for a somewhat inexplicable home loss to Miami have been lights out since the start of October (there was also an early season home loss against Western Michigan). This is a team that I believe has really grown over the course of the season - that was certainly evident in recent hard-fought wins over North Carolina and Virginia that previous Pitt squads may have faltered in. As much as I like what Sam Hartman and Wake can do offensively, I'm not confident that its defense can do anything to slow a highly-efficient Pitt offense here. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I'm a believer in this Houston team and think it can finally give Cincinnati a run after dropping the last two matchups in this series in blowout fashion. The Bearcats are the hunted at this point as they try to hold on to their undefeated record and potentially earn a coveted CFP spot. The blowout win over SMU two weeks ago was impressive to say the least, but we know that the Bearcats aren't invincible. We saw it in a narrow win over Tulsa. We saw it in an eventual lopsided result at Tulane. Even last week, the Bearcats didn't look overly impressive in disposing of East Carolina by a 35-13 score as they turned the ball over three times, ran for less than four yards per rush and completed only 17 passes. Houston, meanwhile, has gone undefeated since opening the season with a tough loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars have demolished the majority of their opponents and it hasn't seemed to matter where they play, they've brought their 'A' game. I'm not sure that the Cincinnati defense has been quite as good as advertised with all of its talent and experience this season and I think Houston can find some success offensively in this one. The Bearcats likely once again get into the 30's, just as they have in the last two matchups between these teams, but this time the Cougars keep pace. Take Houston (7*).

My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Alabama at 4 pm et on Saturday.

There's a lot of talk about whether Alabama will get into the CFP by taking Georgia down to the wire, or perhaps even to overtime in Saturday's SEC Championship Game. I don't think we'll have to worry about that conversation as I expect the Bulldogs to win this one going away. It's not often we see Georgia favored in this series. In fact this is the first time it has been since back in 2015 when it was a -1.5-point favorite and lost by four touchdowns. I expect this game to play our much differently, however. The fact that Alabama needed overtime to get past Auburn in the Iron Bowl last Saturday was no fluke. The Crimson Tide just aren't the same juggernaut this season that we've been accustomed to seeing over the years. It happens. Not often, but it happens. Meanwhile, Georgia hasn't received nearly as much press as 'Bama (in my opinion anyway) but it continues to churn along, fresh off a 45-0 no-sweat rout of in-state rival Georgia Tech last Saturday. In fact, the Bulldogs really haven't had to break a sweat since pulling out a 10-3 win over Clemson way back in Week 1. Some would say that Alabama is more battle-tested. When it comes to college football though, I'll take the fresher team when the talent is virtually equal. Take Georgia (9*).

CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Utah State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Utah State in last week's rout of New Mexico State while also cashing the 'under' in San Diego State's victory over Boise State. Here, I won't hesitate to lay the points with the Aztecs as I believe they match up well against Utah State's high-powered offensive attack. Yes, the Aggies can score. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Carson Strong. I think they're going to be overmatched against an elite San Diego State defense here. After falling behind early we saw the Aztecs defense absolutely manhandle a good Boise State offense last Friday. Only Nevada has managed to throw on San Diego State this season and in that game the Wolfpack completely abandoned their ground game, running the ball only 15 times for a grand total of eight positive yards. The Aggies will look to run it a little bit but will likely run into a brick wall given the Aztecs have allowed just 2.6 yards per rush this season. Keep in mind, Utah State was held to only 17 points in a blowout loss against a quality Wyoming defense just two games back. Utah State hasn't fared well as an underdog in this series. In fact, the last three times it has been in that position it has lost by 31 (2020), 27 (2016) and 34 (2010) points. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We lost with Baylor in the first matchup between these two teams this season in a game that the Bears really had no business even sniffing out a cover in. The reality was, the Bears came within one stop (or one more first down by the Cowboys) of covering the pointspread in an eventual 10-point loss in Stillwater. Here, I don't expect things to be even that close. The Baylor defense was better positioned to go toe-to-toe in a slugfest with the Cowboys on that night. Now we find the Bears coming off a number of tight, hard-fought affairs and I can't help but think we might see them finally give in should they fall behind on Saturday. Oklahoma State has ravaged the majority of its recent opponents, up until Bedlam against rival Oklahoma last Saturday anyway. The Cowboys still ultimately prevailed in that rivalry showdown and I look for them to build off that performance and take another big step toward legitimate respectability on Saturday. Yes, they've earned plenty of respect this season, but not at the same level as some of the other power programs, despite their impressive play. Note that while the last matchup in this series was relatively close, the one before that went the Cowboys way by 39 points last December. Take Oklahoma State (9*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won with Utah in the first matchup between these two teams two weeks ago but in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game I'll go the other way and back the Ducks after we cashed with them in last week's win over rival Oregon State. Everything went wrong for Oregon in that aforementioned first meeting. The Ducks simply couldn't get anything going on offense and once they fell behind by a considerable margin they were forced to abandon their gameplan entirely. It's not as if the Utah offense accomplished much in that game though. The Utes ran for right around 4.0 yards per rush and completed only 10 passes. Here, we'll note that all three of Utah's losses this season came away from home. I don't think this is a team necessarily built for the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Yes, Oregon also suffered both of its losses on the road this season. However, it also notched a win over National Championship contender Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. We haven't seen either team take consecutive wins in this series since the Ducks won in 2016 and 2017. Back-to-back wins for the Utes haven't come since they strung together consecutive victories over the Ducks between 1991 and 1994. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday.

Western Kentucky might be the best team no one is paying attention to as we head into Conference Championship weekend. The Hilltoppers haven't lost since dropping a 52-46 decision against the same UTSA squad they'll face in Friday's C-USA Championship Game - reeling off seven straight wins while going 6-1 ATS in the process. That earlier showdown with the Roadrunners came at a tough time for the Hilltoppers as they were beaten down following three consecutive games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State. Needless to say, the Hilltoppers will be looking for an ounce of revenge in this one. The Roadrunners have received far more press this season thanks to their flawless 11-0 record before falling by 22 points on the road against North Texas last week. You could argue that was a 'meaningless' game so it was no surprise UTSA lost. However, if it was meaningless, why were QB Frank Harris and RB Sincere McCormick on the field? The Roadrunners enter this contest having dropped the cash in three straight games. While their passing game was efficient early in the season, that hasn't been the case down the stretch as they've completed just 102-of-171 (59.6%) of their passes over the last six games. With a total sitting in the low-70's this game obviously has high shootout potential and in that situation, I favor the Hilltoppers and their electric offense that has moved the ball at will through the air all season long. Interestingly, the Roadrunners haven't really faced any offenses of the sort since running into the Hilltoppers earlier this season (note that WKU racked up over 500 passing yards in that wild 52-46 loss). The Hilltoppers were favored by 3.5 points in the first matchup this season. I actually think they're in an even better spot here as the perfect conditions inside the Alamodome favor their explosive offense. Take Western Kentucky (9*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*).

CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won by fading Oregon in its blowout loss on the road against Utah last week. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Ducks as they host the 'Civil War' against rival Oregon State on Saturday. The Ducks have been dealt blow after blow in terms of injuries this season but they've persevered and check into this regular season finale sporting a 9-2 record. While most are down on the Ducks after last week's ugly performance, we're being afforded a short pointspread in my opinion. Oregon State is 'fat and happy' off consecutive home wins to become Bowl eligible. The Beavers certainly want to run the football but here they're facing an Oregon squad that allows just 3.5 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush. Oregon State has only posted more than 19 pass completions once in its last nine games and that came against lowly Colorado. Note that Oregon has held its last three opponents to just 45-of-81 (56%) passing for 569 yards. Take Oregon (10*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

Duke's season mercifully comes to an end on Saturday as it hosts Miami in yet another unfavorable spot. The Blue Devils season has been circling the drain for weeks - months really. They enter this contest having dropped the cash in five straight games and have been absolutely throttled by opposing offenses, allowing 45 points or more in all five of those ATS losses. While they have managed to score 29, 17 and 22 points over their last three games, there's little reason for optimism here. Note that in last week's 62-22 rout at the hands of Louisville they attempted a whopping 50 passes but gained only 275 yards through the air. Duke's ground attack has churned out plenty of yardage but it's been volume-based. Miami's defensive weakness this season has been against the pass but much of the damage was done in just two games - against Alabama and Pittsburgh. I don't need to tell you that Duke isn't Alabama or Pitt. When these two teams met last season Miami rolled to a 48-0 victory. We're dealing with a higher pointspread this time around but I believe the move is warranted. The Hurricanes have caught a spark down the stretch and can improve their Bowl standing with a victory here. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over North Carolina State at 7 pm et on Friday.

You can be sure the Tar Heels would like nothing more than to spoil the Wolfpack's chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game with a victory here on Friday night. It's been a largely disappointing season for North Carolina but all is certainly not lost. The Tar Heels will still be going Bowling and can perhaps improve their standing in that regard with a win over in-state rival N.C. State here. This matchup has actually been no contest in the last two meetings with North Carolina rolling to a 41-10 road win two years ago before delivering a 48-21 victory in Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels were double-digit favorites in both of those games and have to feel at least a little bit disrespected as nearly touchdown underdogs in this one. Yes, QB Sam Howell is banged-up with an apparent injury to his non-throwing shoulder but he was held out of last week's game as a precaution and is expected to play on Friday night. The real star of the Tar Heels show has become their ground game anyway. They're churning out 212 rush yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season. Of course their aerial attack remains a real factor, averaging nearly 500 passing yards per game on 8.9 yards per pass attempt. While N.C. State enters this game 'fat and happy' off a 41-17 drubbing of Syracuse and sporting a perfect 6-0 home record this season, North Carolina has yet to taste victory away from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels couldn't have gotten off to much worse of a start on the road against Pittsburgh two games back but in spite of that still managed to force overtime in an eventual 30-23 loss. They also gave an outstanding Notre Dame squad a run in a 44-34 loss in South Bend back on October 30th. My point is, as bad as things have gone for UNC at times this season, there have been some positives and I don't expect them to go away quietly on Friday night. Take North Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 1 pm et on Friday.

I think we would be dealing with a considerably higher pointspread here were it not for the egg laid by Utah State in last week's game in Wyoming. The Aggies actually still have a slim chance at winning their division and earning a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship game, but only if they win here on Friday. The timing of this game is key. For the Aggies to steal a division title they'll need both Boise State and Air Force to lose. Boise's game starts just an hour earlier and it's a tough one against San Diego State. Air Force doesn't kick off until later in the afternoon. Expect the Aggies to show up for this one and that might be all they have to do against a New Mexico squad whose season has been circling the drain for months really. The Lobos offense is as lifeless as it gets. They've scored a grand total of 24 points over their last three games and were shut out by Boise State last week. You would assume their defense would show up here in the season finale but this is certainly a tough matchup against an explosive Utah State offense that will be determined to erase the memory of last week's debacle against Wyoming. Take Utah State (9*).

My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'll lay the points with the Bears in this matchup between two down-trodden NFC North squads. Let's face it, neither team has much going for it entering this Thanksgiving Day showdown. With that being said, I have reason to believe that Chicago is better-positioned to stop the bleeding with a victory here. No, the Bears won't have Justin Fields. They won't have Allen Robinson. They won't have Khalil Mack. However, I do feel that two offensive players in particular match up well here, those being WR Darnell Mooney and RB David Montgomery. Mooney has shown a good enough rapport in limited work with QB Andy Dalton this season to give me hope that he can expose a Lions secondary that has been absolutely flamed for big play after big play this season with only seven teams giving up more pass completions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, Detroit's run defense has been non-existent. The Lions have allowed a whopping 565 rushing yards over their last three games. Those are college-like numbers. Defensively, even without Mack, I also like the matchup for the Bears. Yes, Chicago like Detroit has struggled to stop the run lately but the Lions ground attack has been so inconsistent that I can't really trust them to pound away with any success here. Guys like Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith had a field day against the Lions swinging door-like offensive line in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I expect that trio to create plenty of chaos again on Thursday. Despite the distraction around head coach Matt Nagy's potential firing, I expect to see the Bears come to play in this one. Take Chicago (10*).

Take Western Michigan minus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I believe the Broncos are favored for a reason in this one, despite the fact that they've dropped the cash in four straight games and face a Northern Illinois squad that is headed to the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester is doing the right thing, pointing to the fact that the Broncos haven't won a game here in Dekalb since way back in 2007. Despite the fact that Northern Illinois owns the better overall record and as I mentioned is bound for the conference title game in Detroit next week, I believe Western Michigan may actually be the better team. Keep in mind, the Broncos have a road win over Pitt to their credit this season. I think they may have been caught looking ahead to this matchup when they coughed up a 14-0 lead on the road against Eastern Michigan last week. Here, we'll note that the Broncos are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games following three consecutive ATS losses. Take Western Michigan (6*).

MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

This sets up as a smash spot for the defending champion Bucs as they return home off a highly-disappointing loss in Washington - their second defeat in a row - to host the Giants on Monday Night Football. New York is coming off its bye week and checks in having won two of its last three games overall. Keep in mind, those two victories came against a reeling (at the time) Panthers squad quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and a Raiders squad that is clearly in the midst of a downturn. Most expected the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders off their bye week but that simply wasn't the case as they got tripped up by a Washington squad that certainly has the talent to win on any given week (remember, the 'Football Team' also gave the Bucs all they could handle during the playoffs last January). This is a far more favorable matchup for Tom Brady and co. back at home. When we last saw the Bucs here in Tampa they were laying waste to the Bears in a 38-3 cakewalk. New York dropped last year's meeting in this series by only two points in New Jersey. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucs were favored by 13 points in that game (a higher pointspread than we're dealing with here despite Tampa having home field advantage this time around). The G-Men held up well in their last MNF appearance against the Chiefs on November 1st. But let's not forget that this is a team that has also lost by 24 and 27-point margins in step-up games against the Cowboys and Rams, respectively. They're quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Packers have inexplicably covered the spread in nine straight games entering Sunday's NFC North clash in Minnesota. Their defense has led the way despite missing two of their best players in pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith and shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. I think this is the game where the levee breaks for the Pack defense against a Vikings offense that has all hands on deck and is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 58 points. The Vikes are somewhat surprisingly just 2-2 at home this season, where they generally own a significant edge. On the flip side, the Packers have gone 4-1 on the road but the majority of those victories have come in Houdini fashion. At some point they're going to get tripped up, and I see this as the spot. Green Bay has actually won consecutive trips to Minnesota but sustained success isn't likely. Unlike the other NFC North squads which Green Bay has beaten up on over the years, Minnesota has held its own in this series, and then some. The Vikes are 4-3-1 in the last eight meetings and the underdog has cashed in three consecutive matchups between these two teams. Take Minnesota (10*).

CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Oklahoma State hasn't received the same attention as big brother Oklahoma this season but perhaps it should. The Cowboys have lost just one game all season and they covered the number in that narrow three-point loss on the road against Iowa State. Since that loss, Oklahoma State has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by a combined 142-23 margin along the way. Texas Tech is down to third-string quarterback Donovan Smith. He performed well in last week's big upset win over Iowa State but now that the Cowboys have some game film on him, look for them to keep the Red Raiders offense under wraps. That Cowboys defense has been among the best in the entire nation this season, holding opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush to just 2.6 ypr and passing games that average 7.6 yards per pass attempt to only 6.3 yppa. Here, the Cowboys offense should go off, noting the Red Raiders have allowed their last three opponents to complete 84-of-107 passes for over 1,000 yards through the air. They've kept opposing ground games in check for the most part lately but that's only because the opposition hasn't elected to pound away on them. Note that TCU racked up just shy of 400 rushing yards against the Red Raiders earlier this season. Here, we'll note that Texas Tech is just 10-22 ATS the last 32 times it has come off an upset win in-conference. Worse still, Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win, outscored by 15.4 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma State (10*).

My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Oregon has CFP aspirations thanks to a 9-1 record and a marquee road win over Ohio State but I expect its playoff hopes to be dashed against the Utes on Saturday night. Utah has gone undefeated at home this season and I'm confident that flawless home record will remain unblemished when it's all said and done on Saturday. The Ducks caught lightning in a bottle in that early season win over the Buckeyes. Line those two teams up again now and I'm confident we would see Ohio State prevail in convincing fashion. Utah has faced a tougher Pac-12 slate in my opinion with its lone conference loss coming on the road against Oregon State. Since that defeat it has gone a perfect 3-0, scoring a whopping 134 points in the process. The Utes aren't likely to get bullied at the line of scrimmage the way Oregon's recent opponent have. Keep in mind, the Ducks are taking a step up in class after facing Colorado, Washington and Washington State over their last three games. I think we'll see the Utes force the Ducks to throw the football more than they would like in this contest, noting that Oregon has completed 17 or fewer passes in six of its 10 games this season while Utah has limited opponents that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt to just 6.4 yppa this season. Take Utah (9*).

My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

No one is expecting Georgia Tech to put up much of a fight in this game as it checks in off four consecutive losses - its Bowl hopes dashed following last week's home defeat at the hands of Boston College. With a likely beating at the hands of in-state rival Georgia on deck next week, this essentially becomes the Yellow Jackets Bowl game, in front of a national audience in South Bend as they look to play spoiler against an Irish squad that has CFP aspirations. While the season hasn't exactly gone as the Yellow Jackets would have hoped, save for a blowout loss against Pitt in early October they've been in virtually every game. The Pitt loss marks their only defeat by more than 11 points this season. Notre Dame has rolled past its last two opponents but easy wins have been few and far between in South Bend this season. The Irish defeated Toledo by three, Purdue by 14, lost to Cincinnati, USC by 15 and North Carolina by 10. You get the picture. I simply feel the Irish are being asked to lay too many points in this matchup against a Georgia Tech squad that is capable of putting up plenty of points on offense and isn't as bad as it looked last week on defense. Here, we'll note that the Irish are a woeful 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, outscoring opponents by just 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Georgia Tech (9*).

CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Florida Atlantic's recent dominance in this series combined with the fact that the Owls are 'desperate' for a win to become Bowl eligible is keeping this pointspread in a very reasonable range on Saturday. Keep in mind, 'desperation' doesn't always lead to victory. I think Western Kentucky is the vastly superior team in this matchup and expect the Hilltoppers to win this one going away. At a modest 6-4 on the season, the Hilltoppers are flying well beneath most bettors' radar. They got off to a tough 1-4 start this season but that had everything to do with a difficult non-conference schedule that included competitive road games against the likes of Army and Michigan State. WKU also took nationally-ranked UTSA down to the wire in a wild 52-46 affair back in early October. Here, we find the Hilltoppers fresh off five consecutive victories, going 4-1 ATS along the way. The wheels have come off for Florida Atlantic over the last couple of games as it has dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Marshall and Old Dominion. While FAU has taken the last four meetings in this series it's worth noting that it was favored in all four games. Different story here. Look for Western Kentucky to keep rolling at home. Take Western Kentucky (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 11:30 pm et on Friday.

San Diego State continues to climb the national rankings but the Aztecs have been anything but a solid bet lately, going 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games. Their last ATS victory came in a narrow six-point win over Air Force. They haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since back on October 9th against lowly New Mexico. UNLV checks in off consecutive victories - its only two wins of the season. Despite their poor overall record, I think the Rebels have made significant progress this season - their 6-4 ATS mark speaks to that. Save for a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Iowa State back in mid-September, the Rebels have played a competitive brand of football here at Allegiant Stadium, losing a pair of games by a touchdown or less and defeating Hawaii by two touchdowns last week. Here, UNLV will be looking for revenge following a 34-6 beatdown at the hands of the Aztecs last season. Note that the last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Rebels easily stayed inside the number in a three-point loss. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least as well. Take UNLV (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

I really think the spot to back the Patriots was last Sunday at home against the Browns. Here, the Pats enter riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and most feel that a victory over the down-trodden Falcons is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so easily convinced. We've seen the Pats struggle indoors over the years, particularly of late. It's easy to forget that New England won by only three points as an eight-point favorite against the lowly Texans in Houston earlier this season (the Pats also won by a field goal in an indoor game against the Chargers in L.A. back on Halloween). The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse than they did in last Sunday's 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas (we took a tough loss with the 'over' after the first half saw 39 points scored). While I'm not particularly high on the Falcons in the long-term picture, I am willing to give them somewhat of a pass for last Sunday's awful performance as they were quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time against a Cowboys squad coming off a stunning blowout home loss against the Broncos (while the Falcons were in a clear letdown spot off a big upset win over the division-rival Saints in New Orleans). Speaking of the division, Atlanta checks in just two games back of the NFC South-leading Bucs. With only two of four second-place teams in the NFC sporting winning records, the playoffs are still very much in play for the Falcons, believe it or not. Let's also keep in mind, they haven't lost consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. While the Atlanta offense is banged up and may not have the services of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, the defense is arguably as healthy as any unit in the entire league. Off an embarrassing performance last Sunday, look for the Falcons defense to hold up well against a Pats offense that just isn't as good as it looked in Sunday's rout of the Browns. Take Atlanta (10*).

MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Buffalo crushed Northern Illinois by 19 points as a 14.5-point favorite in this matchup last year. Let's face it, the 2020 college football season was a unique one, particularly in the MAC where teams only got a chance to play a few games. Here, I look for the Huskies to go right back to dominating the Bulls, noting that prior to last year's matchup they had taken each of the last seven meetings in this series this decade. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season, at least in my opinion. The Bulls entered the campaign with high hopes, loaded with returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, the Bulls season got derailed early with four losses in their first six games, posting just one win against FBS opposition along the way (that win came in a non-cover on the road against a weak Old Dominion squad). Their season continues to circle the drain off lopsided losses against Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio and I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat against Northern Illinois. The Huskies have Bowl aspirations, having already gained eligibility with seven wins on the campaign. They enter this contest having gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. With a win here, Northern Illinois would wrap up the MAC West division and assure itself of a place in the MAC Championship Game. I certainly don't think the Huskies will want to leave anything to chance with a home date against a 'better than its record indicates' Western Michigan squad next week. Take Northern Illinois (10*).

My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

With both of these teams performing horribly on the defensive side of the football in recent weeks, this play really comes down to which team I think can bounce back in that regard on Tuesday night. As far as I'm concerned, it's Western Michigan that boasts the far more talented defense, while also possessing an offense that is better than it showed (which is saying something) in last week's closer-than-expected 45-40 over lowly Akron. Note that Western Michigan had absolutely dominated this series prior to the last two years in which Eastern Michigan staged upset wins as nine and 13.5-point underdogs. Needless to say, the Broncos will be out for revenge here, while also trying to keep their faint hopes of a MAC West title alive. They're currently sitting in a tie for last place but only two games back of division-leading Northern Illinois, which they will face in next week's regular season finale. Its chances are slim to be sure, but expect the Broncos to put forth a strong effort regardless. Keep in mind, while EMU was beating up on the likes of UMass and Texas State (among others) during its non-conference slate, WMU went toe-to-toe with Michigan, Pittsburgh and San Jose State, even staging an outright upset of Pitt, on the road no less. In other words, these two teams may have identical overall records, but I certainly consider the Broncos to be the superior team, initially a consensus pick to finish second in the MAC West. Likely headed to a Bowl game and with the aforementioned faint hope of reaching the MAC title game, everything is technically still in front of WMU. EMU still has plenty to play for but doesn't really control its own destiny with its regular season finale coming against Central Michigan next week. Take Western Michigan (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles may have lost last week (we cashed a ticket fading them with the Chargers) but this is a team that has made progress over its last couple of games, starting with that dominating performance in Detroit two weeks ago (we won with the Eagles in that game). Each of Philadelphia's three victories this season have come on the road and I believe they're well-positioned to pick up another win in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a stunning blowout win in Dallas last Sunday. Here, they'll be trying for their second three-game winning streak of the season as they inexplicably hang around in the AFC West race. This isn't a team that has great prospects for the rest of the season, however, not with all of their key injuries (and departures) on the defensive side of the football. I think they're going to have to put up plenty of points to earn a win here on Sunday but we've actually seen their offense regress (believe it or not after last week's outburst in Dallas), with QB Teddy Bridgewater completing just 38 passes over the last two games and throwing for 217 yards or less in three straight contests. The Eagles have given up a very high completion percentage in recent weeks but aren't giving up a ton of yardage relatively speaking. They've held opponents to 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season (and 4.0 yards per rush). A brutal schedule has certainly contributed to the Eagles going 3-6 through their first nine games but it lightens up from here. After hosting the Saints next week, Philadelphia will face the Giants (twice), Jets and Washington (twice) over its next five contests. In other words, there's no reason to throw in the towel just yet. Take Philadelphia (8*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The setup doesn't get much better than this as the Bills come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday and now head back to the AFC East for a division road game against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets were the 'flavor of the month' so to speak after they delivered a huge upset win as a double-digit underdog at home against the Bengals two weeks ago. Any positive momentum gained from that victory is long gone now after they dropped a blowout decision that wasn't even as close as the 45-30 final score indicated in Indianapolis a week ago Thursday. QB Mike White had the gall to suggest that he believes he should have been a first overall pick at a press conference this week. Just a little more bulletin board material for a Bills defense that will be looking to tee off on Sunday afternoon. Note that Buffalo has allowed just 13.2 points on average the last 11 times it has come off a loss. Speaking of teeing off, the Bills offense should 'go off' after QB Josh Allen was upstaged by his namesake on the Jaguars defense last Sunday. That poor performance does nothing to change the fact that the Bills boast one of the most talented and creative offenses in the league under coordinator Brian Daboll and I fully expect them to respond with a monster performance against a Jets defense that just got roasted by the Colts balanced attack last week. On the flip side, after scoring 30+ points in consecutive games, New York's offense is in for a wake-up call here. Lost in last week's defeat at the hands of the Jags was the fact that Buffalo allowed only nine points on 218 yards of total offense, despite being put in tough situations all afternoon long. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We went against Southern Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided North Texas victory as the Mean Green Eagles easily covered the short pointspread. Here, we're dealing with a much larger spread, but also a much bigger mismatch. Southern Miss' season is circling the drain and has been for the last two months. The Golden Eagles have lost seven straight games both SU and ATS. Their lone victory this season came against FCS opponent Grambling in a game they were favored by more than three touchdowns. UTSA is enjoying a dream season, reeling off nine straight victories while going 8-1 ATS along the way. The Roadrunners have been explosive on offense, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass attempt while also dominating the conference defensively, giving up just 2.7 yards per rush. They have been somewhat vulnerable against the pass, giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt but Southern Miss is unlikely to take advantage, noting that the Eagles have 41-of-82 (50%) of their passes for only 332 yards over their last three games and that stretch included a pair of weak defensive teams in Middle Tennessee State and North Texas. I see this as an ideal spot to fade Southern Miss once again as it comes off a rare game where it didn't turn the football over. On the flip side, UTSA didn't force a single turnover in last week's rout of UTEP after forcing at least two in each of its previous six contests. Take UTSA (9*).

CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Few teams have faced a tougher schedule than Indiana this season. Save for a Week 2 home date against Idaho - a game the Hoosiers won 56-14 - Indiana has gone up against the best the Big Ten has to offer including matchups with Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. Even the Hoosiers non-conference tilts - aside from the game against Idaho - have been difficult as the Hoosiers faced Cincinnati and Western Kentucky, winning the latter contest. Now the Hoosiers finally get a break as they host Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have just one win in their last six games and that came against one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Illinois. Rutgers got beat down physically in last week's 52-3 rout at Wisconsin. It has now been held to 13 points or less in five of its last six games. This series hasn't been particularly close with Indiana taking five straight meetings, with the last two coming by a combined 72-21 margin in 2019-2020. While it could be argued that the Hoosiers have nothing to play for at this point with their Bowl hopes having already been dashed, they should relish the role of playing spoiler as they can strike a major blow to the Scarlet Knights Bowl aspirations with a victory on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 35.1 points on average in that situation. Take Indiana (10*).

CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Tar Heels are coming off their biggest win of the season last Saturday as they rallied to defeat Wake Forest, essentially keeping their hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive. Riding the high of that comeback victory, I think getting right back on the field on a short week is the best thing for the Tar Heels right now. They're in desperate need of a spark having yet to post consecutive wins this season but I think they have a shot at it here. Pitt hasn't traditionally had an overwhelming home field advantage, playing its home games at an NFL stadium in Heinz Field. The Panthers have already lost two home games this season, against MAC squad Western Michigan and a bumbling Miami Hurricanes team. Here, Pitt will be looking to register a second straight win over North Carolina after defeating the Tar Heels back in 2019. Wins have been few-and-far-between for the Panthers in this series, however, and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to win, let alone cover the lofty pointspread here. Here, we'll note that North Carolina is 34-17 ATS the last 51 times it has come off four or five ATS losses in its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 points in that situation. Take North Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

We haven't been involved with a side in any Kent State game since back in late September when we faded the Golden Flashes in a road game against Maryland. The Terps rolled to a three-touchdown win on that day. That wrapped up a tough two-game trip that saw the Flashes face Iowa as well. Since taking their lumps in those two blowout losses, we've seen the Flashes take off, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in MAC play. I look for them to improve on those records here. Central Michigan is in an ideal fade spot coming off a big upset win on the road against Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas were buoyed by a pair of punt return touchdowns from do-it-all WR Khalil Pimpleton after falling behind by two touchdowns early on. I'm more confident in Kent State's ability to keep its foot on the gas should it build a lead in this one. It's hard not to like what head coach Sean Lewis has done with the Flashes since taking over three years ago. Since going 2-10 in his first season, Kent State has now gone 15-11 SU over its last 26 games, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (no Bowl eligibility last year as Kent State played only four games due to Covid). With a win here the Flashes can become Bowl eligible once again. Note that Kent State is as healthy as any team in the country right now and I'm confident we'll see it step up in this big conference road tilt on Wednesday, noting that home field advantage has meant little in this series going way back over the years with the road team winning five of the last seven meetings. Take Kent State (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I love the way this one sets up for a disappointing Western Michigan squad as it looks to bounce back from a tough home loss against Central Michigan and earn Bowl eligibility in the process. While the season hasn't gone quite as planned for the Broncos, there's no reason to hang their heads here. They quite simply ran into arguably the MAC's best player in Khalil Pimpleton last week as he went off and single-handedly took over the game, scoring three touchdowns including two on punt returns after the Broncos had built an early 14-0 lead. Here, Western Michigan is in a perfect bounce-back spot against a hapless Akron squad that it handled by a 58-13 score, on the road no less, last season. The Zips are coming off a hard-fought six point home loss against Ball State last week. They turned in a near-perfect offensive performance, by their standards anyway, but still couldn't get it done. Keep in mind, they entered the fourth quarter down by 18 points in that contest and it certainly seemed like Ball State got complacent. I don't expect the Broncos to fall into the same trap here as they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on both side of the football and should have little difficulty doing just that. This is a Western Michigan team that is only a couple of games removed from a 64-31 rout of Kent State. It also went on the road and won at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Akron, meanwhile, has a lopsided 21-point loss to an awful Temple team on its resume this season and has given up a whopping 110 points in its last three games despite facing limited offenses in Miami-Ohio, Buffalo and Ball State. Take Western Michigan (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles have faced a pretty brutal schedule this season when you really look at it. Here, they'll be playing their first home game since back on October 14th. They've yet to enjoy consecutive home games this season and won't until December. Now they welcome a Chargers squad that has faced quite the opposite type of schedule - this will be only their second time traveling in the last five weeks and only their second game in the last three weeks thanks to a bye two weeks ago. It's obviously a big game for both teams but the Chargers reek a little more of desperation after suffering consecutive losses. I like their chances of bouncing back here. QB Justin Herbert has been struggling but now faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the last three teams it has faced to complete 90-of-110 passes for 791 yards. We actually won with Philadelphia last week but that was against the hapless Lions. I'm still not high on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, other than as a fantasy standout. While the Chargers have certainly been awful against the run this season I actually think they can step up in that regard here, especially with the Eagles backfield muddy in the absence of Miles Sanders. Note that the Chargers are 30-16 ATS the last 46 times they've come off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I really like the evolution of the Raiders this season, even under a seemingly constant swirl of distractions. Here, off their bye week, I think we see Las Vegas come out and smash a Giants squad playing on a short week following Monday's near-miss in Kansas City. Give the Giants credit for going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs on the road on Monday. However, they come out of that game perhaps even more injury-depleted than they went in and now have to limp home to face a Raiders squad that is rested and ready off its bye week. Las Vegas has actually taken flight offensively since ridding itself of head coach Jon Gruden. QB Derek Carr looks extremely comfortable running Greg Olson's offense and now has another week of practice under his belt following the bye. I expect to see even more wrinkles in the Raiders offense here and I'm not convinced the Giants middling defense will have any answers. Missing a number of key cogs, the G-Men have struggled to defend the pass and the run. They're allowing a whopping 4.5 yards per rush and just shy of 150 rush yards per game this season. That should serve to open things up for the Raiders emerging play-action-based offense here. I'm higher on Giants QB Daniel Jones than some but New York is quite simply running out of bodies at the wide receiver position and RB Saquon Barkley is still likely a couple of weeks away from returning to the field. The Raiders offense thrived in a 31-28 last minute win over the Jets here at MetLife Stadium last season. Look for them to come up big in the Big Apple again, albeit against a different opponent this time around. Take Las Vegas (9*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulane at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Tulane got up for last Saturday's nationally-televised home game against then second-ranked Cincinnati, giving the Bearcats all they could handle in an eventual 31-12 loss. Now things get tougher as the reeling Green Wave, having not won a game since Week 2 against FCS squad Morgan State, hit the road to face a surging Central Florida team. The Golden Knights had their doors blown off by aforementioned Cincinnati on the road back on October 16th. Since then, they've bounced back with blowout wins of their own over Memphis and Temple, outscoring those two opponents by a combined 73-14 margin. I like them to keep rolling here as they look to assure themselves of Bowl eligibility with a win. Lost in the relatively competitive nature of last week's setback against Cincinnati was the fact that Tulane completed only nine passes. The Green Wave have now completed a grand total of 20 passes over their last two games. That's just not going to cut it against a Golden Knights squad that is brimming with confidence right now. Take Central Florida (8*).

C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Southern Miss at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Southern Miss has scored fewer than 20 points in all seven games against FBS opposition this season (it defeated Grambling 37-0 in its other game). Needless to say the Golden Eagles are simply playing out the string at this point. Meanwhile, North Texas kept its slim hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive with an 'upset' road win over Rice last week. Now it has an excellent opportunity to build some positive momentum, and earn an ounce of revenge after dropping its last two meetings with Southern Miss. The Mean Green Eagles have faced a brutal schedule this season. After opening with a cupcake matchup against FCS squad Northwestern State they went on to play SMU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Marshall, Liberty and Rice. Yes, there were a couple of soft opponents in that bunch but the majority were tough. Credit UNT for going 5-3 ATS through its first eight games, including a 4-1 ATS mark over its last four contests. I mentioned just how punchless Southern Miss has been offensively this season. North Texas is a different story as it has scored at least 21 points in each of its last four games. The Golden Eagles haven't come particularly close to even sniffing out an ATS cover since losing by 12 points (in a game they scored only nine points) as an 11-point underdog against Troy back on September 18th. Take North Texas (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Texas State found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time last week as it was blown out 45-0 on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette. Here, the Bobcats have a prime opportunity to 'get right' at home against a Louisiana-Monroe squad that is 'punching above its weight class' at 4-4 on the season. The Warhawks have stunningly won a pair of games outright as 20+ point underdogs this season. I think the bloom is off the rose now, however, following last week's 31-point drubbing at the hands of Appalachian State. Now they have to stay on the road for a second straight week to face a Texas State squad that believe it or not still has an outside shot at reaching Bowl eligibility (if it wins out). Of course, winning out is highly-unlikely with a date at Coastal Carolina still on the schedule. That's in a couple of weeks though. Here, I look for the Bobcats to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks after stepping up in class and dropping back-to-back double-digit losses against Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Keep in mind, Texas State has taken Baylor down to the wire while also defeating South Alabama here at home this season. Prior to their last two games, the Bobcats had scored 20+ points in each of their last six games. They've at least played with a little more consistency than Louisiana-Monroe, which has been on a wild, roller-coaster ride all season. Note that Texas State took last year's meeting between these two teams by 21 points, on the road no less. They say revenge is a dish best served at home. I don't see the Warhawks getting that revenge in hostile territory on Saturday. Take Texas State (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This line has moved considerably over the course of the week, leaving Ole Miss in playable range as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Give Liberty credit. It has played the schedule in front of it and has done it well, winning seven of nine games to date. But let's also keep things in perspective. The Flames seven wins this season include victories against FCS squad Campbell and three of the weakest teams in FBS in Old Dominion, Louisiana-Monroe and UMass, with two of those contests coming at home. Ole Miss, meanwhile, opened the season with a tough non-conference matchup against Louisville (it won 43-24) and after a couple of non-conference cupcakes, the Rebels have faced a brutal SEC schedule that included games against Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. It enters this game off a tough but not unexpected 31-20 road loss against Auburn last week. To me, this looks like an ideal 'get right' spot for Ole Miss before it gets back to the SEC gauntlet with a home date with Texas A&M next week. The fact that the Flames are a seven-win team and scored a whopping 62 points in last week's victory should help keep the Rebels focus where it needs to be this week and I expect them to win this one going away. Take Ole Miss (9*).

My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas Tech has faced a fairly easy schedule in recent weeks, but still only managed to go 2-2 SU since suffering a 70-35 rout at the hands of Texas in the final week of September. Now I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for another blowout loss as they catch Oklahoma in the wrong place the wrong time. The Sooners did win last week, but it wasn't pretty. They only managed to get past Kansas on a late surge, ultimately prevailing by a 35-23 score. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Sooners play at home they rolled up over 500 yards of total offense in a 21-point rout of TCU. I believe they're well-positioned to post another rout here, noting they've put up a whopping 117 points in their last two meetings with Texas Tech. Here, we'll back the Sooners noting that they've gone 29-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over a conference opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 22.4 points. Take Oklahoma (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday.

You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse than Tulane right now. The wheels have completely come off since the Green Wave opened the season with such promise after taking Oklahoma down to the wire in Norman before dismantling FCS squad Morgan State 69-20. Since then, Tulane has gone 0-5 SU and ATS. We successfully faded the Green Wave last week as they fell by 29 points against SMU. Now they face an even tougher challenge as they host second-ranked Cincinnati on Saturday, and likely do so without starting QB Michael Pratt. Pratt has been one of the only good things Tulane has had going for it as he has at least given the offense a pulse with his dual-threat ability. The Bearcats enter this game off a subpar performance against Navy last week. Of course, facing the Midshipmen is always a unique experience with their triple-option attack. Cincinnati actually did a good job of limiting the Navy offense in that game but got bogged down offensively itself. Here, I expect to see QB Desmond Ridder and his incredible supporting cast go off against a hapless Tulane defense that has been lit up for 4.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yard per pass attempt this season. The fact that Tulane has given up 40 and 55 points over its last two games is telling when you consider the offense turned the football over only twice. It's not as if the Green Wave have been handing the opposition a bunch of extra possessions. Look for the Bearcats to make the most of what they're given on Saturday as they bounce back from just their second ATS loss of the season (the first came as 36.5-point favorites against FCS squad Murray State back in Week 2). Take Cincinnati (9*).

NFL TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

Everything seems to be stacked against the Packers in this one with the news coming down that both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are on the Covid-19 list and unlikely to play on Thursday. That adds to an already impressive (not in a good way) list of players slated to miss, including CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith. However, last time I checked, the Packers still had QB Aaron Rodgers and do-it-all RB Aaron Jones. We're talking about a team that has had to deal with Adams absence due to injury before and on those occasions, Rodgers has actually thrived. I really like the setup here with the Packers coming off a less-than-dominant performance against Washington last week (they still won by two touchdowns) and the Cardinals fresh off a complete dismantling of the lowly Texans at home. Here, we find the Packers in a terrific situation that has gone 55-22 ATS over the last 10 seasons in which we fade favorites priced between -3.5 and -10 that outscore the opposition by an average of 10+ points per game and come off a contest in which they allowed 14 points or less. Also note that the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS the last six times they've played at home after outgaining their previous opponent by 100+ total yards over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that situation. They're a miserable 3-16 ATS the last 19 times that situation has come up but with the total yards advantage adjusted to 150. As for the Packers, they're a solid 12-4 ATS the last 16 times they've played with six or less days' rest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*).

AAC First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on East Carolina first half minus the points over South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I like the fact that we're only being asked to lay single-digits with the Pirates in the first half in this key late October home game. East Carolina is coming off a hard-fought overtime loss at Houston last week - its second straight heart-breaking loss after falling by a 20-16 score at UCF in its previous game. Everything is still in front of the Pirates, however, as they certainly have a path to six wins and a potential Bowl game but there's no denying they need the win on Thursday against South Florida to make that happen. We actually won with the Bulls in last Saturday's rout of Temple. It wasn't a clean performance by any means, but USF was the lesser of two evils and managed to walk away with its second victory of the season. Unlike ECU, USF doesn't have much of a shot at going Bowling this season with a difficult schedule still ahead and no margin for error. The problem here is, the Bulls are dealing with a number of injuries and playing on a short week, on the road no less, doesn't help matters. With a defense that has been absolutely gashed both against the run and the pass, I have a hard time envisioning the Bulls offense, which could be led by multi-program disappointment Cade Fortin, struggling to get off on the right foot in this one. Note that the Bulls are a miserable 4-16 ATS as first half underdogs over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.5 points. Worse still, they're 0-6 ATS in the first half when coming off a win over the same stretch, averaging a paltry 2.7 points while being outscored by an average margin of 20.8 points. On the flip side, ECU has outscored the opposition by 13.7 points on average in the first half at home this season. Take ECU first half (10*).

NFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Lions can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. They have an offense that can't play from behind. It's clearly a recipe for disaster as they head across the country to face the Rams on Sunday afternoon. You can throw motivation out the window - we've all heard enough about the Jared Goff-Matt Stafford angle in this one. The simple fact is, the Lions offense is broken - as evidenced by the fact that they've been shut out in the first half in three of their last four games and have managed to score no more than 17 points in any of their last five contests since an anomaly of a performance in the second half against the 49ers way back in Week 1. QB Jared Goff is firmly planted in the hot seat right now and I'm not convinced that head coach Dan Campbell calling him out publicly after last week's game will lead to positive results. In fact, I'm quite certain of the opposite. The Rams 'got right' on a two-game road trip through Seattle and New York and now return home for this absolute smash spot. Los Angeles is well-armed to dismantle a fading Lions defense while the Rams own defense should feast on a Lions offense that has few weapons, some of which are banged-up right now including TE T.J. Hockenson. This is the continuation of a dream three-game stretch for the Rams which began with a 27-point rout of the Giants last week. I'm confident we'll see them roll by 20+ in all three games - a stretch that concludes with a trip to Houston on Halloween. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not buying into the Falcons for a second. Their two wins this season have come on a last-second field goal against the hapless Giants and in London against the lowly Jets. Yes, Miami is at a scheduling disadvantage here after playing in London last Sunday - where it fell to the Jaguars, but the Fins are actually getting healthier in this spot with CB Xavien Howard expected to return. Lost in last week's defeat was the progress made by the Dolphins offense with QB Tua Tagovailoa back at the helm as he threw for 354 yards and as a team Miami turned the football over only once. It wasn't really a bad performance from the Miami defense either as it held the Jags to 84 rush yards and 25-of-41 passing for 312 yards through the air. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on South Florida minus the points over Temple at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We won with an easy fade of Temple last week in Cincinnati and I won't hesitate to go back to the well at a much more reasonable price as the Owls stay on the road to face South Florida on Saturday. This one has pretty much fallen into our laps with the Bulls falling to under a field goal favorite. There's really nothing curious about the line. Temple is a respectable 3-3 on the season while USF checks in a miserable 1-5. But let's keep things in perspective here. The Owls wins have come against Akron, FCS squad Wagner and Memphis. Yes, the win over Memphis could be considered somewhat impressive but that had everything to do with the Tigers jumping out to a big lead early and thinking they had the win in the bag, without a legitimate defense to back it up. South Florida has faced a brutal schedule, going up against N.C. State, BYU and SMU on the road and Florida, Florida A&M (its lone win) and Tulsa here at home. Credit the Bulls for coming out of their bye week and giving a quality Tulsa squad all it could handle in a one-point loss last week. This is essentially a 'must-win' game for Temple if it wants to keep its Bowl hopes alive and I like that as it's certainly being factored into the line in our favor with the Bulls. South Florida doesn't have the benefit of carrying the same (false) hope but should get up for this winnable game before the schedule gets tougher again down the stretch. Take South Florida (9*).

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Texas-San Antonio has earned a national top-25 ranking for the first time in program history but I expect its stay to be short-lived. Wins are never easy to come by for teams that travel to Ruston to face the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech, regardless the state of the program. Here, I question who the Roadrunners have really beat this year? The wins have come against Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, Western Kentucky and Rice. Even the 'name' programs in that bunch are mired in down years. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech checks in 2-4 on the season but as I mentioned, it has been competitive once again here in Ruston, going 2-1 with its lone loss coming by two points on a touchdown with six seconds left in the fourth quarter against still-undefeated and nationally-ranked SMU back on September 18th. The Bulldogs laid an egg on the road against UTEP last week and that's a big reason why we're dealing with such a generous helping of points here. Keep in mind, just two games back, Louisiana Tech went on the road and gave N.C. State all it could handle in a seven-point loss. There's still a clear path for Louisiana Tech to reach a Bowl game this year as I count five winnable games left on its schedule - including this one. Remember, this same matchup produced a narrow 27-26 result in favor of UTSA last year. Expect another tightly-contested affair here. Take Louisiana Tech (10*).

My selection is on Washington minus the points over Arizona at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Arizona has quietly been one of the worst teams in the country this season and I don't envision a sudden turnaround against Washington on Friday night. The Wildcats didn't score a single point in last week's 34-0 drubbing at the hands of a fairly weak Colorado squad. Arizona has yet to win a game this season - in fact, it has yet to break 20 points in a game. QBs Gunner Cruz and Jordan McCloud are sidelined for the remainder of the season leaving the starting job to an ineffective Will Plummer. The only reason the Wildcats defense hasn't posted truly embarrassing numbers is because they haven't faced many explosive offensive opponents. Still, it's notable that they allowed 271 rush yards against San Diego State and a whopping 329 yards on the ground against UCLA. The Washington ground game has been held down for the most part but that should change here. Remember, the Huskies did run for 200 yards against Arkansas State and 176 yards against Oregon State earlier this season so they're certainly capable of salting this game away should they build a considerable lead. We can expect the Huskies to be afforded some extra offensive possessions in this contest, noting that Arizona simply hasn't taken care of the football, turning it over a whopping 12 times over its last four games. Washington got a big boost on the defensive side of the football with extraordinary pass rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui getting on the field for 10 plays against UCLA in his long-awaited return from a torn achilles. He's expected to see more action this week and should wreak havoc against a very beatable Arizona offensive front. The Huskies defense is loaded with talent and experience but hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations this season. With that being said, teams that don't boast much of a ground game don't have much luck against Washington, as the Huskies have held opposing passing games to just 5.4 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.2 yppa. While they have given up a less than impressive 4.7 yards per rush, that's against opponents that average 4.8 ypr. Despite a rough 2-4 start to the season, there's still a path for the Huskies to reach a Bowl game with four games left on their schedule. It goes without saying they need the win here, however. I'm confident they'll get it, in convincing fashion. Take Washington (10*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Jose State at 11 pm et on Thursday.

We won with San Jose State as it gave San Diego State everything it could handle in a double-overtime loss last week. In fact, I've been fairly high on the Spartans for much of the season. With that being said, I'm going to go the other way and fade SJSU as it hits the road to face winless UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Thursday night. There's no denying the fact that the season has been somewhat of a disaster for San Jose State. The Spartans have quite simply been unable to recapture the magic that led them to a Mountain West Conference championship last season. Last week's loss was a back-breaker both physically and emotionally. While there's no question the Spartans absolutely need to get a win over the Rebels here, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. The schedule won't get any easier from here and at this point, San Jose State might be hard-pressed to simply reach a Bowl game. UNLV checks in 0-6 on the season but it continues to play hard, with its last three and four of six losses this season coming by eight points or less. The Rebels schedule has been tough to be sure, you could argue this is only their second winnable game of the campaign (they lost their season-opener 35-33 as a 1.5-point favorite against FCS squad Eastern Washington). There was certainly no shame in taking better-than-expected Fresno State and Texas-San Antonio teams down to the wire (on the road no less) before dropping a narrow 28-24 decision against Utah State last week. We've seen flashes of brilliance from the Rebels on both sides of the football throughout the campaign but consistency, or a lack thereof, has been an issue. Here, they should benefit from facing a Spartans squad that has dealt with similar problems, but has been just plain bad for the most part on offense, whether due to injuries or otherwise. They could get QB Nick Starkel back from injury this week but even when he was healthy early in the season, their offense still sputtered. The fact that SJSU only managed to pull out four and six-point victories against Hawaii and New Mexico State respectively is telling. While the Rebels look like they're having a whole lot of fun (take note of the slot machine they have on their sideline for home games at Allegiant Stadium) and making progress, the opposite can be said of the Spartans. Here, I'll note that the Spartans average just 24.5 points and outscore the opposition by a minuscule 0.3 points on average when playing on the road off an ATS win over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That includes an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season as they fell by a 30-7 score at USC back in the first week of September. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Denver plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.

The Browns were already going to be in a tough spot on Thursday night, playing on a short week with the pressure ratcheted up following consecutive losses against the Chargers and Cardinals. Now without QB Baker Mayfield, RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt among others, I don't expect them to bounce back against the Broncos. Denver hasn't been playing well, fresh off three straight losses albeit against tough opposition in the Ravens, Steelers (on the road) and Raiders. Here, the Broncos have an excellent 'get right' matchup against what should be a very limited Browns offense with journeyman QB Case Keenum at the helm and a defense that hasn't been nearly as stout as advertised. Consider this a breakout spot for the Broncos offense while I have plenty of confidence in Vic Fangio's ability to scheme up a gameplan to shut down Cleveland's struggling and undermanned offense. Note that for all of its recent struggles, Denver still checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a loss against a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 2.6 points on average in that spot. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on New England plus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

This Patriots are in a terrific spot on Sunday as they return home to host the Cowboys who are coming off four straight wins, including a perfect 3-0 homestand. The last time we saw Dallas play on the road, it eked out a 20-17 win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Cowboys have only managed to split two road games this season, with both of those games decided by a field goal or less. Another close game should be in order on Sunday. New England was in a clear letdown spot last week on the road against the lowly Texans. Credit the Pats and rookie QB Mac Jones for pulling out a victory even if they didn't manage to cover the lofty pointspread. Here, we find Dallas a long-term loser at 39-59 ATS when playing on the road off a home victory, outscored by 1.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Pats are an impressive 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games as a home underdog, including a 1-0 ATS mark this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take New England (10*).

NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

There's no reason for the Colts to be down on themselves following an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If anything, they should bring positive momentum from that game and now find themselves in a smash spot against the Texans, who may not win another game this season (that's not a stretch). Houston fell just short at home against the Patriots last week - who were in a clear flat spot off their matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Now the Texans go into Indianapolis without two key cogs on their offensive line in Justin Britt and Laremy Tunsil. The Colts offense has been quietly effective over the last two weeks, running fot 139 and 123 yards while QB Carson Wentz has come to life, completing 49-of-67 passes for 600 yards over that stretch. With one of the more underrated backfields in the entire NFL, the Colts have the ability to salt this game away should they build a considerable second half lead, as we expect. Take Indianapolis (10*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens keep finding ways to win and I don't expect the Chargers to be the ones to end their winning streak on Sunday afternoon. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its last game over the last three seasons. The Browns were set up on a tee for the Chargers last Sunday in Los Angeles yet they needed a fourth quarter rally to earn the win (and cover). We actually won with the Bolts in that contest. Meanwhile, the Ravens had no business winning against the Colts last Monday night but pulling out unlikely wins has been their M.O. this season and here they comfortably find themselves in the second game of a four-game homestand. QB Lamar Jackson is balling out right now and while the Chargers defense offers a considerable challenge, I think he'll be up for it after completing 37-of-43 passes for 437 yards on Monday night. While the talent is there, save for the Raiders and Washington Football Team, the Chargers haven't really been able to stop anyone this season. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Utah over Arizona State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Arizona State in its 18-point victory over Stanford last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Sun Devils here as they head on the road for only the second time this season to face Utah on Saturday night. Keep in mind, Arizona State's lone loss this season came away from home as it fell 27-17 against BYU. The Sun Devils didn't come out of last week's win unscathed as they're dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football. Key DT Jermayne Lole is gone for the season while safety Evan Fields is questionable to play against the Utes on Saturday. Those are only a couple of the walking wounded. Utah continues to make up for lost time after starting the season with two losses in its first three games (the Utes lost those games outright as favorites on the road against BYU and San Diego State). After posting consecutive wins over Washington State and USC and with six very winnable games coming up after this one in Pac-12 play, everything is still in front of the Utes despite their poor start. Note that Utah checks in 12-3 ATS from October on over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.5 points along the way. On the flip side, the Sun Devils are a miserable 24-42 ATS the last 66 times they've come off victories in four or five of their last six games, as is the case here (5-1 on the season). Take Utah (9*).

My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Saturday.

It seems that everyone was down on Colorado State at the start of the season and perhaps for good reason as they opened with a 42-23 loss to FCS squad South Dakota State and followed that up with a defeat at the hands of lowly Vanderbilt. But then a funny thing happened, the Rams upset Toledo 22-6 at the Glass Bowl and proceeded to give top-five ranked Iowa a serious run in an eventual 10-point loss (on the road) before crushing San Jose State 32-14 last Saturday. The Rams have a lot going for them now and while it won't be easy, there is a path for them to potentially reach a Bowl game, but they need to keep it rolling in this very winnable game against New Mexico and I'm confident they will. Colorado State QB Todd Centeio is coming off arguably his best performance of the season as he completed 19-of-23 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in last week's rout of San Jose State. Most importantly, he's taking good care of the football, having not thrown a single interception over the last three games, despite facing a pretty tough slate of defensive opponents over that stretch. Centeio isn't just a passer either, he can make plays with his legs, having run for at least 37 yards in three of the last four games. There's reason to believe Centeio will have some help in this one as the Rams backfield is coming off their best performance of the season. Saturday's opponent, New Mexico, got off to a 2-0 start this season but that was thanks to facing the likes of FCS squad Houston Baptist and New Mexico State. Since then, the Aggies have gone 0-4, outscored by a wide 123-30 margin. The injuries are starting to pile up, with Kentucky transfer QB Terry Wilson the latest to go down. He's questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he can go, I'm not convinced the offense can do much, noting that the only seven points the Aggies scored last week against San Diego State came by way of a fumble return for a touchdown. You would have to go back five-and-a-half quarters to find the last time New Mexico State scored an offensive touchdown. That's the Aggies only offensive TD over their last 11 quarters of football. Take Colorado State (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

While San Jose State hasn't gotten off to the start it hoped for this season, due in part to losing QB Nick Starkel to injury, everything is still in front of the Spartans. I still see a path to seven victories and a Bowl game but the turnaround has to start here against San Diego State on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Spartans upset the Aztecs as a double-digit road underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. While San Jose State hasn't played as well as it did during that magical 2020 campaign, I still believe it can hang with an Aztecs squad that also isn't without its flaws. San Diego State rolled to a 31-7 victory over New Mexico last Saturday, improving to a perfect 5-0 on the season. The Spartans certainly know what to expect when it comes to the Aztecs offense. San Diego State will lean heavily on its two-headed monster in the backfield, Greg and Chance Bell. If there's one area where the Spartans defense has been stout, it's against the run as they've limited opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season. With a still unproven QB in Jordon Brookshire, who has been banged-up for most of the season, the Aztecs aerial attack isn't all that imposing. It remains to be seen whether San Jose State QB Starkel can return for this game. Even if he can't, I do expect Nick Nash to perform better than he did in last week's road game against Colorado State. Nash has had enough playing time going back to last season to settle into the offense a little bit and is more of a dual threat than Starkel. Consider San Diego State's defense has feasted on the likes of New Mexico State, Arizona, Towson and New Mexico this season. In its only real test it allowed 31 points in a narrow two-point win over Utah. San Jose State, meanwhile, has only had two home games, scoring a whopping 82 points in those two contests, albeit against weaker opposition. Take San Jose State (10*).

NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

I love the way this one sets up for the 49ers as they look to bounce back from consecutive home losses against the Packers and Seahawks while facing a Cardinals squad that is coming off a monumental beatdown of the Rams, on the road no less, last week. As good as the Cardinals have been, I don't find them to be all that intimidating of a team to bet against simply due to the leaky nature of their defense. The fact that Arizona is allowing 5.2 yards per rush this season sets the Niners up well in this spot, even with San Francisco still banged-up at the running back position. Of course, the big news here is that Trey Lance is expected to get his first start for San Francisco, representing a major upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo in my opinion. Only six teams have been flamed for more quarterback rushing yards than the Cards this season, which really helps open up the playbook for dual-threat Lance in this spot. Note that the 49ers have averaged 28.5 points per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.7 points the last 10 times they've played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. They've gone an impressive 16-5 ATS the last 21 times they've come off an outright loss against a division opponent as a favorite, outscoring the opposition by eight points on average in that situation. The Cards are certainly not a trustworthy home favorite, having gone 1-8 ATS in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, actually getting outscored by 1.9 points on average. Take San Francisco (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I think the Browns would have been well-advised to perhaps shut QB Baker Mayfield down for a game or two (he's dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder) given how out of sorts he appeared in last week's 14-7 escape against the disjointed Vikings in Minnesota. Now he'll be going against a much tougher defense, and doing so with a cluster of injuries on his offensive line. On a positive note, the Browns run-centric offense will be going up against a very beatable Los Angeles run defense here (that allows over five yards per rush). However, given the fact I project the Browns to be playing from behind in this one and not well-positioned to pound away on the ground, I'm not sure that will matter all that much. I still don't believe we've seen the best of the Chargers offense yet. That's saying something as they enter this one off a string of clean, efficient performances. QB Justin Herbert faces a tough test here, but we know the Browns defense is beatable based on what we saw earlier in this season when they were blow-torched by Patrick Mahomes and then by an anemic Texans offense guided by Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills. This will be Cleveland's most difficult defensive matchup since Week 1 against Kansas City. Strong starts have been commonplace for the Browns in recent years but it's worth noting that they've gone a miserable 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games between Weeks 5 and 9, outscored by 9.2 points on average. Take Los Angeles (9*).

CFB Independents Game of the Year. My selection is on Massachusetts plus the points over Connecticut at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm actually surprised we've seen this line flip since opening with Connecticut now favored in advance of Saturday's 'toilet bowl' matchup between two of the country's worst FBS teams. I won't spend much time waxing on about how impressive UMass is. That's simply not the case. However, I do feel that the Minutemen are further along in their progression back to respectability than UConn, which was of course forced to cancel its entire 2020 season. With this being a rivalry game, you can be sure the UMass players that were on board for 2019's beatdown at the hands of the Huskies haven't forgotten about it. This is the perfect opportunity to gain an ounce of revenge given the state of UConn. We actually won with the Huskies in last week's narrow loss against lowly Vanderbilt. They were catching far too many points in that one - I wasn't one bit surprised that they were competitive, riding high off a near-miss against Wyoming the week previous. Here, however, I expect to see somewhat of a letdown. UMass has faced a brutal early season schedule, going up against Pitt and Coastal Carolina on the road and Boston College, Eastern Michigan and Toledo at home. Let's face it, none of those games were winnable. I will give credit to the Minutemen for showing signs of life offensively, putting up 28 points in consecutive weeks against BC and EMU earlier in the season. After getting shut down by CCU and Toledo over the last two weeks, I'm confident they can get back on track offensively against a toothless UConn defense. Note that the Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Steven Krajewski. He caught Vandy a little flat-footed in last week's game but won't be so fortunate here as the Minutemen have some game film to break down. Not only are they deep into the QB depth chart but the Huskies are also dealing with somewhat of a Covid-19 breakout on the offensive line. It remains to be seen who will be good to go for Saturday's contest. Take Massachusetts (10*).

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We faded the Cardinals last week and missed the mark as they gave Wake Forest everything it could handle, away from home no less, ultimately losing on a last-second field goal. Here, the Cardinals draw a more favorable matchup back at home as they look to bounce back against an up-and-down Virginia team that is coming off a two-point win in Miami last week. The Cavaliers just as easily could have lost that game but the Canes missed a last-second field goal that would have secured the win. Don't be fooled by that narrow win, Virginia isn't playing particularly well right now, with just one victory in its last three games, allowing a whopping 124 points over that stretch. Now the Cavaliers have to face a Louisville offense that has really gotten rolling after a slow start to the season. Cards QB Malik Cunningham entered the season with high expectations and lately he's been delivering, both with his arm and his legs. While I still have questions about the Cardinals defense, I believe this is a matchup they can handle, especially after limiting Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman to just 23-of-40 passing in last Saturday's game. These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons with the home side winning on both occasions. Louisville's ground attack was dominant in those two games, racking up 544 rushing yards. Allowing five yards per rush this season, the Cavs don't appear well-positioned to slow the Cardinals here. Take Louisville (9*).

My selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I love the way this one sets up as a bounce-back spot for Ole Miss as it returns home licking its wounds off a blowout loss at Alabama while Arkansas stays on the road after getting crushed at Georgia. I don't think there's any question, there was a bit of 'smoke and mirrors' involved in Arkansas' perfect 4-0 start to the season. We certainly saw the Hogs weren't ready for primetime in last week's rout at the hands of the Bulldogs. While there was no real shame in losing to a team as good as Georgia, it was the way Arkansas got dominated that was concerning. Yes, Ole Miss got blown out as well but at least it was able to show some push-back, scoring 21 points in a three-touchdown loss. The Rebels should be able to get right back on track here as they play extremely fast and have the potential to overwhelm a Razorbacks offense that simply isn't built to play from behind. Note that Arkansas has yet to complete more than 14 passes in a game this season. The Hogs rely heavily on their ground attack but the Rebels have proven to be fairly stout against the run. Even in last week's game against mighty Alabama, with game script favoring the Crimson Tide running wild over the course of the afternoon, Ole Miss still allowed just a shade north of four yards per rush. Here, we'll back the Rebels noting that they've gone 25-10 ATS the last 35 times they've come off consecutive games in which they forced less than two turnovers, as is the case here, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 7.4 points. Also note that Arkansas has averaged just 17.2 points per game, outscored by 8.5 points on average, the last 15 times it has come off a road loss by 28 points or more. Take Ole Miss (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

I believe this game has blowout potential as Arizona State is rolling again off consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado and UCLA. Stanford is fresh off an emotional, come-from-behind overtime win over Oregon. Dealing with a number of key injuries and playing on the road on a short week, I don't see this as a favorable spot for the Cardinal. It's likely we'll see Stanford play from behind for much of the night and while they did manage to come back against Oregon last week, they would be playing with fire attempting to do so again here. That's because the Cardinal passing attack isn't built to bomb away. Stanford has completed 20 passes or fewer in each of its last four games since opening the season with 23 pass completions in a blowout loss against Kansas State (the Cardinal threw for just 194 yards in that game). Note that Stanford is losing the time of possession battle by an average of well north of three minutes, while averaging just 4.2 yards per rush this season. By contrast, the Sun Devils absolutely have the ability to salt this game away with a ground attack that averages 5.5 yards per rush this season. While the Sun Devils offense gets a lot of the attention, their experienced, talented defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while not allowing a single opponent to throw for more than 235 yards. Note that Stanford is allowing 39.3 points per game when playing as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take Arizona State (10*).

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

These teams are certainly heading in opposite directions with Houston sitting at 4-1 and Tulane stuck at 1-4. All is not lost for the Green Wave, however. There are still seven games remaining on the schedule with the toughest matchup (against Cincinnati) coming at home. This is the same Tulane squad that opened the season with a narrow five-point loss on the road against Oklahoma. Turnovers have been a major problem as the Green Wave have coughed up the football eight times over their last two games. I do think that's something they can clean up here, however, and believe we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that the Green Wave are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points on average in that spot. Under head coach Willie Fritz, Tulane has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.8 points after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Houston is just 2-9 ATS under head coach Dana Holgorsen when coming off an ATS victory, outscored by 3.6 points on average in that situation. I'll also note that the Green Wave have posted an impressive 6-0 ATS mark, outscoring opponents by 4.6 point son average, under Fritz when facing opponents that average 34 or more points per game, as is the case with Houston here. Take Tulane (9*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Coastal Carolina is a bonafide juggernaut and I look for it to keep rolling against Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves have fallen on hard times, losing 11 of 15 games since the start of last season. Keep in mind, this is a program that lost no more than five games in eight of nine seasons between 2011 and 2019. The offense remains explosive at times, however I don't like the dual quarterback situation between James Blackman and Layne Hatcher. Both are solid in their own right but sharing time just doesn't seem like the answer, even if head coach Butch Jones seems bent on it continuing. Defensively, Arkansas State has been a mess, struggling to improve after a disastrous 2020 season. The Red Wolves simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the likes of the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has done a tremendous job of mixing up tempo on offense, essentially toying with the majority of the defenses it has faced this season. QB Grayson McCall turned his ankle in last week's win over Louisiana-Monroe but all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one and was lifted from last Saturday's game as a precaution only. With an offense that can score at will and an underrated defense that isn't simply along for the ride, I'm confident the Chanticleers can keep the back door firmly closed in this one. Take Coastal Carolina (10*).

NFL First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle plus the points first half over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Seahawks last week in Minnesota as they got off to a strong start but couldn't hold off a desperate Vikings squad in an eventual lopsided loss. Here, I do expect Seattle to bounce back against the division-rival 49ers. However, I don't like the prospect of the Niners making a potential switch at quarterback in the second half should Jimmy G. continue to struggle under center. So instead we'll back the Seahawks in the first half in a situation that has worked out very well over the years. Note that Seattle has gone an impressive 44-26 ATS in the first half the last 70 times it has come off an upset loss as a favorite in its previous game, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Better still, the Seahawks are 23-9 ATS in the first half when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite, outscoring opponents by 5.4 points on average in that situation. I'm not as down on the Seahawks defense as most heading into this one. Yes, Seattle got ripped by a desperate Vikings offense that gameplanned very aggressively in last week's contest. I expect a different story to unfold here as the Seahawks are now the 'desperate' team coming off consecutive losses. Seattle owns numerous matchup edges on offense in this one, most notably with their passing attack as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (even if he is less than 100% healthy) should feast on a 49ers secondary that is dealing with a cluster of injuries. Defensively, Seattle won't have to deal with a monster tandem like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson at wide receiver this week. Meanwhile, the Niners once-vaunted ground attack has been depleted due to injuries as well with Trey Sermon not looking like the explosive runner they had hoped for in his rookie campaign. Take Seattle first half (10*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not one bit afraid of the big number in this one. We've been along for the Bills ride the last couple of weeks, cashing with them in their rout of the Dolphins before hitting the 'over' in last week's blowout win over Washington. I fully expect them to make it three straight lopsided wins against the lowly and reeling Texans on Sunday. Houston was every bit as advertised (finally) last week against Carolina as awful play-calling combined with an inefficient rookie QB in Davis Mills combined to lead to an eventual blowout loss against the Panthers. This is a nightmarish matchup for the Texans on both sides of the football. While he's had a few extra days of preparation, I'm not sure that extra reps in practice are going to make a bit of difference for Mills as he has a subpar supporting cast. WR Brandin Cooks got off to a strong start this season but he'll likely be erased by standout Bills corner Tre'davious White in this one. Outside of Cooks there's little reason for optimism in the Houston offense. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen silenced his critics in resounding fashion against Washington last Sunday and now draws an even more favorable matchup. Allen represents a considerable step up in class from the quarterbacks Houston has faced thus far - a slate that has included Trevor Lawrence (in his first NFL start - on the road no less), Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Allen figures to feast on an unimposing Texans defense with Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll likely to dial up another aggressive gameplan. We've still yet to see Bills WR Stefon Diggs truly explode this season but we've certainly seen glimpses in the last couple of weeks. I'm high on Diggs, but perhaps even higher on Buffalo's ancillary pass-catchers, including underrated TE Dawson Knox. What more can I say about this matchup, I expect the Bills to roll by three touchdowns plus. Take Buffalo (10*).

CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is absolutely a 'plug your nose and bet it' type of a play on Saturday night. I'm as surprised as you that I'm actually getting behind UConn after we successfully faded it in two out of three tries (the lone loss was a free play on the Huskies when they back-doored Army two weeks ago) already this season. I do like the progression I've seen from the Huskies, however, and certainly believe they can hang with another down-trodden program in Vanderbilt. As I mentioned, two weeks ago we saw UConn fall behind 42-0 before halftime at Army before outscoring the Black Knights 21-10 in the second half in an eventual back-door cover. The fact that the Huskies didn't quite in that game meant something and we saw some carry-over in last week's home game against a tough Wyoming squad as UConn jumped out to a 13-0 lead and ultimately hung tough for four quarters in a 24-22 loss. That was certainly an impressive performance on both sides of the football against a Cowboys squad that is a perfect 4-0 on the season. Now the Huskies get a stretch where they can potentially build some confidence, facing Vandy, UMass and Yale in consecutive weeks. Vandy does have a win to its credit this season but that came by just three points against an awful Colorado State squad. Since then, the Commodores have had their doors blown off in two games against Stanford and Georgia, outscored by a combined 103-23 margin. Note that they've scored just one touchdown in their last nine quarters of action, that coming in the final seconds of a game that was long decided against Stanford. The fact that Vandy somehow managed to give up 35 points in less than a quarter of action last week, even against a power program like Georgia, was telling. There are few redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams but I think we're seeing Vandy laying north of a touchdown simply due to the SEC vs. Independent angle. There's a chance that UConn can prove to be a 'tough out' over the remainder of the season and I'm willing to bet on that on Saturday. Take Connecticut (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Baylor plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I'm starting to believe in Baylor. Two weeks ago we cashed with the Bears in their rout of lowly Kansas. While that was a game they were certainly expected to win, I liked the way they absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 31 unanswered points in a 45-7 rout. Last week, the Bears were involved in a game they weren't necessarily expected to win but gutted out a hard-fought 31-29 victory over then-14th ranked Iowa State. Now comes a very difficult test in Stillwater, noting that Oklahoma State rolled to a 42-3 victory when these two teams met last December. I think the Bears will be up for the challenge. While Oklahoma State deals with a number of key injuries on both sides of the football (defensive stars Tre Sterling and Trace Ford the most notable), Baylor enters this showdown relatively healthy. We've seen a number of players step up and take on big roles for the Bears this season. It starts with QB Gerry Bohanon, who was given the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season and has certainly made the most of it, seemingly getting better with each passing week. Bohanon has thrown for seven touchdowns while running for another four. He's yet to throw an interception but did fumble twice in last week's victory. Of course it helps to have a tremendous supporting cast. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton make up one of the top wide receiver tandems in the nations - an unappreciated tandem at that. Trestan Ebner was thought to be the 1-A back but he's actually taken a backseat to Abram Smith at times, who has three 118+ yard rushing performances with five touchdowns to his credit already this season. While the Bears are known for their explosive offense, it's their defense that impressed me most this season. This is a loaded unit that was expected to take a big step forward this season and it has. This is a manageable matchup given Oklahoma State has been held to 31 points or less in all four games this season and as I mentioned is missing a few key cogs due to injury on offense. We saw the Cowboys score three offensive touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes last week against Kansas State but they were held to a single field goal the rest of the way. In fact, Oklahoma State hasn't scored a single second half point in its last two games. RB Jaylen Warren has been outstanding the last couple of weeks in particular but he's not better than Breece Hall, who the Bears dealt with against Iowa State last Saturday. Simply put, Baylor has the talent and depth up front and at the back-end to make life miserable for Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders on Saturday night. Provided the Bears don't get swallowed up by the sheer size and importance of this matchup, I believe they can hang for 60 minutes. Take Baylor (10*).

My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's not easy to get behind the Seminoles these days as they enter Saturday's matchup with Syracuse sporting a winless 0-4 record. But how many games could we have expected them to win at this point? Three of their four losses have come against Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Louisville - three teams that have combined to post an 11-1 overall record this season. The other loss was a stunner for sure against FCS squad Jacksonville State. The 'Noles clearly got caught letting their guard down in that one, playing on a short week off an overtime loss against Notre Dame and leading by 10 points late in the fourth quarter before the Gamecocks came up with a pair of touchdowns. Nevertheless, the 'Noles continue on and with a tough date at North Carolina looming next week, a win is critical here against Syracuse. The Orange are off to a solid 3-1 start but I'm not all that high on them at this point. The schedule has had everything to do with Syracuse's strong start, noting that its three wins have come against an Ohio squad that is much worse than expected, FCS team Albany and Liberty. The loss came by double-digits at home against Rutgers. The Orange surprisingly went with Garrett Shrader at quarterback in last week's game against Liberty. Shrader is arguably a better runner than passer and is expected to get the start again here. Keep in mind, Florida State just faced one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation in Malik Cunningham of Louisville last week so the 'Noles will certainly be ready for Shrader. RB Sean Tucker has been the big difference-maker for the Orange so far this season - he's coming off a 169-yard rushing effort in last week's win over Liberty. He's risen to the occasion against the weaker squads on Syracuse's schedule but was bottled up for just 54 yards on 13 carries against Rutgers. Despite playing with negative game-script during its 0-4 start, Florida State has actually allowed just 132.3 rush yards per game this season. It's the pass that has hurt the 'Noles most but I'm not convinced that either Shrader or former starter Tommy DeVito are capable of taking advantage for the Orange. On the flip side, note that when teams have chosen to throw on the Orange they've found success to the tune of a 73.5% completion percentage. This sets up as a potential breakout game for Florida State QB McKenzie Milton. I also question whether the Syracuse defense will be able to contain underrated 'Noles RB Jashaun Corbin who has ran for 439 yards and three scores - good for a whopping 9.2 yards per rush through four games this season. The 'Noles are looking to take their frustrations out on someone and I believe the Orange fit the bill. Take Florida State (9*).

My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Louisville at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Demon Deacons are off to a perfect 4-0 start but will face a tough test in the form of Louisville - a team that has had their number over the last couple of seasons - on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem. I expect Wake Forest to rise the occasion, however. This is a different Demon Deacons squad than we've seen in recent years, boasting a ton of talent and experience on both sides of the football. Wake has shown the ability to jump ahead and salt away games from there, which is precisely what we saw last week as it didn't allow another score after Virginia cut its lead to 27-17 with just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. I believe the Deacs' can follow a similar script here, especially with Louisville losing the heart-and-soul of its defense, Monty Montgomery, to a season-ending knee injury. In last week's game in particular, Louisville's opponent Florida State didn't persist with its ground attack nearly enough in the early going, ultimately playing from behind the entire game. When it did decide to test the Cardinals front it found success, including a 75-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. As impressive as the Louisville offense has looked at times, it has also gone stagnant for periods. Last week it scored 31 first half points but then didn't score again in what turned out to be an eight-point win over aforementioned Florida State. There was a game against FCS squad Eastern Kentucky earlier this season where the Cardinals scored an offensive touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter and then didn't find the end zone on offense again until there were just over five minutes left in the third quarter. I expect the Deacs' defensive athleticism to be a difference-maker in this one as they have the personnel to contain Cards dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham. I also won't discount the fact that Wake Forest has had an extra day of preparation having played last Friday night; it does matter as we flip the calendar over to October. Take Wake Forest (8*).

AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I don't believe for a second that the Raiders are a true contender in the AFC West this season. Yes, they're off to a 2-0 start. However, they just as easily could have started with a loss against the Ravens were it not for some poor execution from Baltimore late in that Monday nighter. Then they took advantage of a Steelers squad that was 'fat and happy' off a season-opening upset win in Buffalo, and continues to employ an aging, noodle-armed starting QB in Ben Roethlisberger. Here, I believe the Raiders face their toughest test to date with a late window home game against the Dolphins, who will certainly be in a foul mood following last week's 35-0 drubbing at the hands of the Bills. While Miami will be without starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, I don't believe there's a big drop-off from him to backup Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has proven to be a capable starting QB during his days in Indianapolis and I expect him to find some success in a 'game manager' role against the Raiders here. This one really comes down to the Dolphins defense, and I'm confident they can outplay a very average Raiders offense on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offensive line is banged-up. Derek Carr is dealing with an ankle injury. The Raiders defense has lost a pair of safeties along with DT Gerald McCoy. Note that the Raiders are 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they've come off consecutive games in which they gained 300 or more yards through the air. They're also 28-46 ATS when coming off consecutive wins ATS, outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in that spot. Look for the Fins to at the very least take the Raiders down to the wire in this one. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo got off to a roaring start this season, blasting FCS squad Wagner 69-7 in its opener. Since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games, albeit as considerable underdogs on the road against Nebraska and at home against Coastal Carolina. There's no reason to be down on the Bulls right now and I fully expect to see them take their frustrations out on Old Dominion this week. The Monarchs are off to an identical 1-2 start although their long-term prospects this season aren't nearly as favorable as Buffalo's. Keep in mind, ODU was forced to cancel its entire 2020 season due to Covid concerns and as a result had a number of players transfer out of the program entirely. That leaves the cupboard somewhat bare this season as the Monarchs look to build the program back up. Note that their lone victory so far came against an FCS team, Hampton. In its other two contests, ODU was outscored by an 87-27 margin against Wake Forest and Liberty. The Monarchs are particularly thin on the defensive side of the football and that was more than evident last Saturday as they were torched for four first half touchdowns against Liberty. Buffalo is precisely the type of team they probably don't want to see this week as the Bulls can beat you in a variety of different ways. It's worth noting that in both of the Monarchs previous losses their opponent has taken their foot off the gas in the second half, something I don't anticipate seeing out of Buffalo given it needs to turn in a complete 60-minute effort after suffering consecutive losses. Remember, back in Week 1 against Wagner, the Bulls jumped ahead 38-0 before halftime but still proceeded to add 31 more points in the game's final 30 minutes. Once Buffalo is able to build a lead in this one we can count on its ground game to salt the game away with a trio of running backs capable of going off. In fact, through three games, the Bulls have had three different players lead the team in rushing. QB Kyle Vantrease is more of a game manager than anything else but has shown the ability to go off through the air in the past and this is certainly a matchup where he can take advantage of an ODU secondary that was forced to make wholesale changes after canceling the 2020 season. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Kent State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with Maryland last week as the Terps won but failed to cover in a low-scoring Friday night game in Illinois. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Terps as they're well-positioned to win by margin against Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense. That high-octane offense has been great in MAC play in recent years, and certainly against FCS opponents. However, pit the Golden Flashes against teams from the Power Five conferences and they don't fare so well. Back in 2019 we saw Kent State score a combined 23 points in three road games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Of course, 2020 was a unique season that only featured MAC games for the Golden Flashes. So far this season we've seen Kent State put up 10 points at Texas A&M and seven points at Iowa - sandwiched around a 60-10 rout of FCS squad VMI. Maryland has the size, talent and experience on the defensive side of the football to effectively swallow up the Golden Flashes offense, which as I mentioned is predicated on playing fast and coming up with big plays from its shifty running backs and speedy wide receivers. Kent State's offensive line, while experienced, hasn't held up well at all through three games this season, allowing QB Dustin Crum to be sacked a whopping 10 times through three games. With Crum taking a beating, the Golden Flashes would probably be well-suited to 'punt' this one before opening their MAC schedule with a home game against Bowling Green next Saturday. Unlike the Terps, Kent State lacks the size up front on defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. Maryland's offense was held down against Illinois last week but it was more due to a lack of execution at key points of the game than anything else as the Terps converted just two-of-10 third down opportunities. QB Taulia Tagovailoa actually completed 32-of-43 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown in the three-point win. Unfortunately, the Terps coughed up a pair of fumbles which ultimately ended up being the different between a win and a win and ATS cover. Look for the Terps to bully the Kent State defensive line and open things up for their underrated ground attack in this one. Tagovailoa will have his moments as Maryland boasts a deep group of talented wide receivers, but I suspect Tayon Fleet-Davis may actually be the star of this game. If you're concerned about the back door being left open in this one, keep in mind Maryland led Howard (admittedly an FCS squad) 38-0 at halftime two weeks ago but continued to pour it on in the second half, scoring another 24 unanswered points. Backup QB Reece Udinski is capable, having gone 5-for-5 passing for 73 yards and a score in that rout. Take Maryland (9*).

CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We successfully faded the Ohio Bobcats in their rout at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette last Thursday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bobcats as they stay on the road to face Northwestern on Saturday. Consider Ohio's loss last week 'rock-bottom'. While it's been an awful 0-3 start to the season and the post-Frank Solich era, all is not lost. Everything is actually still in front of the Bobcats with a full MAC schedule set to begin next week. While the Week 2 loss to FCS squad Duquesne was ugly, the fact is Ohio wasn't really expected to win either of its other two games. With a strong performance on Saturday, the Bobcats can at the very least feel good about themselves entering the onset of conference play. Perhaps the best news for Ohio is that standout WR Isiah Cox is expected to make his season debut after missing the first three games due to disciplinary issues. I don't believe his absence sat well with the rest of the team, the offense in particular as they struggled to move the football through the first three weeks of the season. Cox immediately makes the offense more explosive, keeping in mind, the Bobcats already boast a tremendous 1-2 punch at the running back position in De'mondre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison. Defensively, the Bobcats are better than they've shown and here should benefit from having an couple of extra days of practice following last week's dubbing at the hands of a terrific Ragin' Cajuns offense. While they're stepping up in class on paper against a Big Ten opponent here, Northwestern certainly has its issues, on both sides of the football. The Wildcats head into this game sporting a 1-2 record with its lone victory coming against FCS squad Indiana State. In losses to Michigan State and Duke, the Wildcats were marched up and down the field on at will. On offense, the Wildcats have been going with a three-man rotation at quarterback, which only indicates one thing, they're not all that confident in any of the three. The reality is, the Wildcats season began circling the drain before it even got started when RB Cam Porter went down to a season-ending injury in August. Without a dominant ground attack, the Wildcats lack the ability to effectively shorten games, something Ohio will be looking to do here on Saturday. While most teams boast a ton of returning talent following a strange 2020 Covid-tinged season, Northwestern is one of the least experienced teams in the country. This one has the potential to be much closer than most are expecting. Take Ohio (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We missed with the Vikings on the moneyline last week in Cincinnati but probably deserved a better fate as they were driving for the winning score in overtime before a costly turnover from RB Dalvin Cook. Noting that they've played consecutive road games four times in the last two seasons and didn't drop both of those games on any of those occasions, I look for them to bounce back here on Sunday in Arizona. The Cardinals couldn't have looked any better in last week's rout of the highly-touted Titans in Tennessee. Everything clicked for the Cards in that game but now they're in a much different situation, favored by more than a field goal back at home against an opponent that will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season. Minnesota certainly didn't play its best game against the Bengals last week but was still right there with a shot to win it in overtime. Yes, the Vikes have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the football, but I think we see the offense bounce back and at the very least keep pace with the Cards on Sunday. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The fact that the Texans not only beat the Jaguars but completely annihilated them while the Browns gave up 30+ points in a blown opportunity on the road against the Chiefs is helping keep this line under a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. Let's keep Houston's Week 1 blowout win in perspective. The Texans jumped ahead early in that game and the questionably-coached Jags essentially threw their offensive gameplan out the window. It's not as if the Houston defense was dominant - in fact, it recorded just one sack and four QB hurries against rookie Trevor Lawrence, who was making his first NFL start and was bombing away playing from behind all afternoon long. Offensively, the Texans torched what we knew would be a bad Jags defense - we saw it throughout the preseason and it carried over into Week 1. Here, Houston will be up against an elite Browns defense. Forget the fact that Cleveland gave up 30+ points against the Chiefs - that was obviously an extremely difficult matchup. Here, we can expect the Browns 'D' to take its frustrations out on a Texans offense that boasts below-average talent at all of the skill positions. However, it's actually the Houston defense that I'm most concerned about in this one. We've seen the Browns evolve into a more aggressive offense compared to the early stages of last season. I mentioned the lack of pressure the Texans were able to put on Trevor Lawrence last week, with that in mind, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield should absolutely feast on Sunday while the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt takes care of the rest. The Browns run away and hide in this one. Take Cleveland (9*).

AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I have a lot of faith in the Bills coaching staff to come up with the right gameplan and for the players to execute that gameplan as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Miami this Sunday. Let's face it; Buffalo got out-coached and out-gameplanned in its opener against Pittsburgh. The Bills came out expecting the Steelers to play a certain way - particularly on defense where they're known for their blitz-happy nature - and instead they got thrown a screwball and ultimately were unable to prevail in a surprisingly low-scoring affair. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back matchup on paper - certainly not after the Dolphins 'upset' the Patriots in Foxboro last week - I think it's actually an ideal rebound spot for Buffalo. Bills QB Josh Allen is coming off a terrible performance against the Steelers last week - but again, that had more to do with Pittsburgh's improbable scheme than anything else. Here, Allen will be facing perhaps his favorite opponent in the Miami Dolphins. He's faced the Fins four times in the last two seasons, flaming them for nearly 1,000 passing yards (good for over nine yards per pass attempt), 12 touchdowns and just one interception. That's not to mention the fact he's run all over them for over 100 rushing yards and a score on just 17 attempts. Miami executed its own gameplan flawlessly against the Patriots last week. The problem is, this is an offense (and team) that's built for playing with a lead. Should they fall behind in this one, I don't have a lot of trust in QB Tua Tagovailoa or an average ground attack to lead them back, or even sneak in the backdoor. IT seems to me that a lot of bettors are backing the Dolphins thinking they're getting a 'gift' catching a field goal at home. I expect the Bills to put the Fins back in their place. Take Buffalo (10*).

NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bears couldn't have looked much worse in last Sunday night's blowout loss against the Rams in Los Angeles. That was a brutal spot for the Bears and we took advantage, fading them in the first half. Highly-touted rookie QB Justin Fields' time is coming and perhaps sooner rather than later after he saw the field for a number of plays in last week's game. I do expect him to play a factor in this contest as the Bears look to give their home faithful some hope for the future. The Bengals were a popular fade last week but got some favorable bounces and ultimately prevailed over the Vikings in overtime. I don't believe they'll be so fortunate this week, however. Cincinnati still boasts a subpar defense, not the type of unit we trust to back in a hostile environment on the road. Note that the Bengals won only one road game all of last year, that coming against the hapless Texans in Week 16 (they did pick up a tie in Philadelphia in Week 3. The Bears didn't lose their second game last season until Week 7. Anything other than a victory on Sunday could only be seen as a massive disappointment in Chicago. There are so many areas the Bears can improve on off last week's awful performance - sometimes it's actually easier for a team to rally off a season-opening loss than it is to follow a win. Take Chicago (10*).

CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

One of our biggest plays last week was a fade of Kansas and it worked out perfectly as the Jayhawks were routed in a Friday night road game against Coastal Carolina. Things won't get any easier for Kansas here as it returns home to the site of an inexplicable field-storming from the fans following an ugly 17-14 win over FCS squad South Dakota two weeks ago, hosting the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has yet to earn much national attention but with another strong performance here, and perhaps next week at home against Iowa State, it will. The Bears are loaded on both sides of the football. Quarterback was a question mark heading into the season but I like what I've seen from Gerry Bohanon. He hasn't been asked to do too much but has settled in nicely as a game manager, completing 32-of-47 passes for just shy of 400 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. The Bears offense is all about the ground game and the do of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner has been electric with both rushing for 100+ yards in each of their first two games this season. Kansas lacks the bulk or talent up front to slow Baylor's dominant rushing attack. On the flip side, the Jayhawks offense has not surprisingly struggled. Dual-threat QB Jake Bean had a couple of nice plays against Coastal Carolina last week but both were with his legs. He's not much of a threat passing the ball and behind a leaky offensive line, he's been running for his life for much of the first two games - sacked six times already. The Bears defense has the experience and talent - strong from the secondary in - to make life miserable on Bean and his rag-tag supporting cast. With a ball-hawking secondary, I don't expect Baylor to leave the back door open in this one. Take Baylor (10*).

My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

It's been a dream start for Virginia Tech as it opened with a stunning upset win over North Carolina and followed that up with an expected victory over Middle Tennessee State last week. I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Hokies to be that good this season - in fact, I still don't. I look for them to be handed their first loss of the season in Morgantown on Saturday. Last week's game against Middle Tennessee State was actually close at halftime with the Hokies leading 14-7. That narrow lead was only thanks to some inept play-calling from the Blue Raiders, not to mention some key penalties. I don't expect the Mountaineers to suffer from either of those things on Saturday. West Virginia got dropped from most bettors' radars after falling by a 30-24 score as a road favorite against Maryland. I'm higher on the Terps than most so I don't believe that narrow loss was all that devastating. The Mountaineers actually led that game heading into the fourth quarter, only a defensive breakdown on a long fourth quarter touchdown proved to be their downfall. In the perfect tune-up for this contest, West Virginia rolled to a 66-0 rout of LIU-Brooklyn last week. I liked the way the Mountaineers never took their foot off the gas in that victory, even pouring it on with four second half touchdowns after heading into halftime with a seemingly insurmountable 38-0 lead. With a tough road game against Oklahoma looming next week, West Virginia needs to put its best foot forward here and keep its season on track with a win. Meanwhile, even with a loss, everything the Hokies want to accomplish this season would still be ahead of them with each of their next four games coming in Blacksburg. Take West Virginia (9*).

CFB Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 9 pm et on Friday.

We successfully faded Illinois last week in its lopsided loss on the road against Virginia. While it has the benefit of returning home for a primetime game this week, and the opportunity to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, I look for it to fall short once again. For Maryland, this will be its first conference game of the season after opening with wins over West Virginia and FCS squad Howard. The Terps couldn't have looked much more impressive in those two victories and I really liked what I saw from them in what was admittedly a layup against Howard last week. The Terps poured it on from the opening kick in that one, cruising to a 62-0 rout - a perfect tune-up before playing on a short week here in Champaign. As I noted in last week's analysis of my play against Illinois, it's going to take some time for new head coach Bret Bielema to turn around the program. Most of the key pieces are holdovers from a truly awful Lovie Smith era of Illini football. While Illinois is expected to get QB Brandon Peters back on the field this week, it will still be without RB Mike Epstein. This is a tough matchup against a Terps defense that is loaded in the secondary after going with a bit of a youth movement a year ago. Maryland recorded just two interceptions in five games last season but has already picked off three passes in just two games this year. Offensively, the Terps are rolling and figure to shred a weak Illini defense that just couldn't come up with any key stops against an average Virginia offense last Saturday. Illinois allowed Virginia to score touchdowns on each of its first two drives and the Cavs would have made it three straight scoring drives to open the game were it not for a missed field goal. After scoring a touchdown to close the gap on their first drive of the second half, the Illini defense gave it right back up, and then some, allowing Virginia to march down the field on two consecutive touchdown drives to put the game out of reach. The strength of the Illinois defense is up front but that doesn't bode all that well against a rejuvenated Terps offense that has shown the ability to blow the top off of opposing secondaries, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for well over 600 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Take Maryland (10*).

My selection is on UL-Lafayette minus the points over Ohio at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are off to somewhat disappointing starts this season but there's a difference. While Ohio is winless at 0-2 - dropping two straight winnable matchups - Louisiana-Lafayette did manage to reach the win column last week, albeit in a closer than expected affair against FCS squad Nicholls State. For the Ragin' Cajuns, everything is still in front of them. Keep in mind, they opened the season ranked in the top-25 before dropping a lopsided decision on the road against Texas. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort, but I think we will see it on Thursday night in this nationally-televised affair against Ohio. The Ragin' Cajuns return plenty of talent from last year's team - on both sides of the football. We've yet to see their ground game really get rolling but they are expected to have offensive lineman Carlos Rubio back from injury on Friday and I do think it's only a matter of time before they start finding some rushing success. The passing game is fine with fifth-year QB Levi Lewis at the helm and a wealth of talent at the wide receiver position. Even without top-two WR Jalen Williams making a single catch, Lewis still threw for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 27-24 win. The defense is hoping to have standout LB Ferrod Gardner back on the field after he missed last week's game due to an ankle injury but even if he can't go there's plenty of depth at the position. I'm making this play assuming he won't be able to play but if he can we'll consider it a bonus. Ohio desperately needed a win over FCS squad Duquesne last week but fell short. It's been a miserable start to the post-Frank Solich era and I don't see the Bobcats turning it around here. The fact that one of their biggest gamebreakers on offense, WR Isiah Cox, remains suspended for disciplinary reasons can't sit well with a team that appears in desperate need of a spark. The Bobcats have a tremendous 1-2 punch in the backfield with RBs De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison but their effectiveness is limited when they can't find a way to build a lead. They scored a kick return touchdown to open last week's game against Duquesne and then added another TD on their next drive. From there, they didn't find the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The stagnant nature of the Ohio offense was really nothing new as it didn't find the end zone even once in a season-opening 29-9 loss to Syracuse. That's the same Orange squad that just lost 17-7 against Rutgers in its home-opener last week. While the line may appear fairly steep in this game, I simply feel that Louisiana-Lafayette is considerably better than it has shown through two games and will take full advantage of this spotlight matchup against a reeling Ohio squad on Thursday night. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*).

NFL First Half Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points first half over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

I can't help but feel Bears head coach Matt Nagy is effectively 'punting' the season-opener against the Rams in Week 1, frustratingly sticking with veteran Andy Dalton as his starting quarterback, leaving electric first round pick Justin Fields relegated to clipboard duty on Sunday night. That suits our purposes just fine as the Rams should control proceedings on both sides of the football. I can't imagine anything other than a limited playbook for Dalton, who will be operating behind a makeshift offensive line with a supporting cast that lacks gamebreaking ability. Dalton had moderate success taking over from an injured Dak Prescott last season but was gifted a loaded Cowboys offense in that situation. Allen Robinson is a stud at wide receiver but he's likely to be offered up blanket coverage from the Rams secondary. Los Angeles simply didn't give up big plays to opposing passing games last year and there's little reason to anticipate anything different here in 2021. On the flip side, Rams QB Matt Stafford couldn't ask for a better opponent to debut against than the familiar Bears. Unlike in Detroit, here he'll be afforded the opportunity to work behind an elite offensive line that gets back all five starters from last season. Chicago's defense is considerably stronger up front than it is at the back-end and that spells trouble in today's pass-happy NFL. Stafford has enough mobility to evade the likes of Khalil Mack and find his wealth of targets down field. Expect Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to find plenty of open field to work with on Sunday night. Here, we'll play the first half only simply due to the ever-so-slight chance that Nagy turns to Fields should things really go sideways in the first half with Dalton. Take Los Angeles first half (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think it's a good idea not to overthink this one as the 49ers are poised for a tremendous bounce-back campaign following an injury-ravaged 2020 season while the Lions are just hoping to win a game or two as they field a rag-tag group led by polarizing first-year head coach Dan Campbell. While I don't love the prospect of Jimmy Garoppolo leading the 49ers offense, I think it works just fine here in Week 1. The fact is, highly-touted first round draft pick Trey Lance was turnover-prone during the preseason and this probably wasn't going to be an ideal spot for him to make his first career start. Garoppolo is certainly deserving of holding on to the starting job for now and should do just fine against a well below-average Lions defense. The real advantage the 49ers should have in this contest is on the defensive side of the football. With all of their key cogs back healthy after a disastrous 2020 campaign, I expect this unit to make up for lost time against a woeful Lions offense. Joey Bosa and Arik Armstead are poised for a monster game against the Lions overmatched offensive line and we know how poorly QB Jared Goff has performed when under duress during his time with the Rams. You probably couldn't have picked a worse landing spot for Goff as the Lions simply don't have an o-line capable of pass protecting with any consistency. By halftime, I suspect this line will look awfully short while the 49ers dominant defense should help keep the back door held firmly shut in the fourth quarter. Take San Francisco (9*).

AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Texans are going to be bad. Really bad. With that being said, Trevor Lawrence got off to a slow start running the Jags offense in the preseason (when everyone was paying attention) and most bettors are fairly low on Jacksonville so we're able to grab the Jags laying a very reasonable number of points in Week 1. I believe this line will look awfully short by comparison as the season unfolds and we realize just how bad the Texans are. The Jags were willing to trade capable backup QB Gardner Minshew for a reason. They're confident in Lawrence's abilities and I think we should be too, especially after watching him finally find some rhythm and a solid rapport with his receivers over the final couple of preseason games. Jacksonville boasts a solid wide receiving corps with veteran Marvin Jones, dynamic sophomore Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark. While the season-ending injury to rookie RB Travis Etienne hurts, the Jags have solid depth at that position and I expect RB James Robinson to relish the opportunity to once again stake claim to the starting job. While much will be made about the awful Texans offense, their defense could be even worse. Trading away CB Bradley Roby was further evidence of the Texans intent to tank this season. The less said about the Jacksonville defense the better, but there's no question this is a favorable opening week matchup against a Texans offense that is bereft of dynamic talent with journeyman QB Tyrod Taylor being asked to shoulder the load, with a backfield that consists of the ghosts of David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Broncos castoff Phillip Lindsay. Quarterbacks drafted first overall have had very little success starting in Week 1 but I believe this is a unique situation given the matchup. Take Jacksonville (10*).

AFC Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.

After taking a deeper dive into this intriguing Week 1 AFC showdown, I really like the way it sets up for the Bills. Pittsburgh has the potential to be a very good team this year in what figures to be the 'last ride' for the tandem of head coach Mike Tomlin and QB Ben Roethlisberger. I say that not because Tomlin's job is in jeopardy but rather due to the clock ticking on Big Ben's career. The real concern for the Steelers lies in two different areas - on the offensive line and on defense. The o-line should be in for a nightmarish day trying to keep Big Ben upright against a fierce Bills pass rush that only got better through the draft. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's secondary - outside of standout Minkah Fitzpatrick - figures to take a step back with tough corners Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton moving on in the offseason. Also of note, one of the Steelers best defenders and pass rushers, Stephon Tuitt starts the season on the shelf. The Bills are quite simply loaded on both sides of the football and will be looking to make a real statement in this tough-on-paper opening week matchup against the Steelers. Some are down on Bills WR Cole Beasley but despite his concerning Covid vaccine stance, he figures to play a major factor here playing second-fiddle to superstar Stefon Diggs. It's easy to forget that these two teams just met in Week 14 last season with the Bills having little trouble prevailing by a double-digit margin, 26-15. A similar outcome is well within the realm of possibility here. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Connecticut at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We cashed a ticket fading the Connecticut Huskies in their season-opener against Fresno State and probably should have gone back to the well again last week as they fell in their home-opener against FCS squad Holy Cross. As I noted at the start of the season, UConn was ravaged by transfers out of the program when it was announced it would sit out the entire 2020 campaign - and it's not as if the talent was there to begin with following a dismal 2019 season. Here, I expect the Huskies to get rolled by a good Purdue Boilermakers squad that is flying under the radar a little bit at this early stage of the season. Purdue shook off some early rust on offense to get past Oregon State by a 30-21 score last week. In that game, Purdue scored a first quarter touchdown before being held to three field goals in the second and third quarters. The good news is, the Boilers offense got on track in the fourth quarter, putting together two touchdown drives. Purdue's pass-catchers looked outstanding as that game progressed with David Bell and Payne Durham combining to catch 15 passes for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both coming from super tight end Durham. RB Zander Horvath was as advertised despite only getting 21 carries as he gained 81 yards on the ground and found the end zone once. QB Jack Plummer took care of the football and threw for over 300 yards, essentially all that was asked from him in that contest. We saw Connecticut somewhat surprisingly put together three first half touchdown drives last week. The Huskies added a third quarter touchdown score but from there, couldn't do anything positive in the game's final 18 minutes, held off the scoreboard entirely in an eventual 10-point loss. Despite putting up 28 points, QB Jack Zergiotis completed just 17-of-41 passes with just one completion going for more than 15 yards. Now the Huskies will need to contend with a much tougher opponent, noting that the Boilers held Oregon State out of the end zone for a 41-minute stretch in last week's victory and should feast in Storrs on Saturday afternoon. Purdue gave up its share of big plays through the air against the Beavers last week but UConn isn't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Illinois at 11 am et on Saturday.

Whatever positive momentum that Illinois had built in its season-opening upset win over Nebraska is gone after last week's 37-30 loss to UTSA - the Roadrunners first ever victory over a Big Ten program. The Illini are going to get better under head coach Bret Bielema but it's not going to happen overnight. The defense still has the fingerprints of Lovie Smith all over it and that was evident in last Saturday's loss to UTSA. In that game, Illinois allowed two touchdowns before the second quarter was even four minutes old. From there, the Roadrunners would put together five more scoring drives, including a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns when the Illini defense had a chance to rise up and take over the game. Offensively, the Illini weren't able to find the end zone until nearly six minutes into the second quarter. QB Artur Sitkowski bombed away for 42 pass attempts, competing only 22 of those for just 266 yards. For Bielema's offense to work the way it should he needs stability at the running back position. RB Mike Epstein looked like he could be that guy but after leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury he's now expected to miss this Saturday's game as well. Virginia got the perfect tune-up for this one, rolling to a 43-0 victory over FCS squad William & Mary last week. The offense sputtered a bit in the early going but once it found it's rhythm it proved difficult to stop, scoring five touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. QB Brennan Armstrong was effective, throwing for 339 yards on 21 completions and did a nice job of taking care of the football, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. The emergence of former Mississippi State QB and now used predominantly at wide receiver and out of the backfield, Keytaon Thompson was a factor, running the ball four times for 43 yards while also catching five passes for 66 yards. This is a Cavaliers offense that has the potential to be dynamic, particularly against weaker defensive opponents such as the Illini. While Illinois does boast a solid pass rush, Cavs QB Armstrong has some mobility and I expect him to be able to stretch out some plays and ultimately take advantage of a weak Illini secondary. Defensively, the jury is still out as to how much better Virginia will be after a tough 2020 campaign. There's certainly nowhere to go but up and it was a positive sign that the longest play they gave up last week went for just 20 yards, despite the fact that William & Mary figured to be taking some chances down big. The Cavs didn't force a single fumble or interception in the game but I do expect turnovers to play a role in the outcome on Saturday against Illinois, presumably in Virginia's favor. Take Virginia (9*).

CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for Coastal Carolina as despite its Top 25 ranking (which is well-deserved by the way) will get a rare opportunity to perform in front of a national audience, against a Power Five conference opponent, no less. I expect the Chanticleers to take full advantage. Kansas football has been a disaster for years now. To understand the state of the program, look no further than last week's game against FCS squad South Dakota. The Jayhawks won that game by a 17-14 score. At the end of the game the fans stormed the field. Yikes. Note that Kansas didn't manage to even score in that game until the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was only thanks to South Dakota handing it excellent field position due to a poor punt late in the first half. From there, the Jayhawks reach the end zone again until the final 1:10 of the fourth quarter. Now Kansas heads on the road to face a Coastal Carolina squad that laid waste to FCS foe Citadel in their season-opener last week. A stark contrast to Kansas, the Chanticleers went full throttle offensively from start to finish in that game. They were ahead 21-0 midway through the second quarter and entered halftime with a 31-0 cushion. They didn't allow a single score until the game was already well in hand, up 38-0 with just over six minutes remaining in the third quarter. I liked the way Coastal Carolina continued to pour it on, even scoring a touchdown in the game's final three minutes. This is a Chanticleers squad that is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football and eager to prove that last season was no fluke, not Covid-assisted. Expect a rout on Friday night. Take Coastal Carolina (10*).