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Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves have reeled off five straight wins both SU and ATS but I look for those streaks to end here. Note that Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS in its last 51 games following five consecutive ATS victories including a 3-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons and a 1-2 ATS record this season. The Nuggets have thrived when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent going 22-13 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons and 6-2 ATS this season. Additionally, Denver is a long-term 25-16 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home against a divisional opponent, as is the case here, including a 6-0 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons and 3-0 ATS this season. I certainly don't expect the defending champion Nuggets to go down 2-0 in this series and it's worth noting that the T'Wolves have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 15 straight-up losses. Take Denver (10*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Magic rallied for a win (and cover) in Game 6 of this series on Friday. That's par for the course as the home team has won each and every game in this series so far. I look for that trend to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. Note that the Cavaliers are 58-51 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 100 points or more over the last three seasons including an 18-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're 54-50 ATS when coming off a loss over the last three seasons including a 20-14 ATS record this season. The Magic have had a double-digit advantage in terms of free throw attempts in each of the last two games and that's ultimately proved to be the difference from a pointspread perspective. As is often the case, I expect the script to flip as the scene shifts to Cleveland for Game 7 on Sunday. Take Cleveland (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday.

This series has tightened up considerably in the last two games with just 189 and 194 points scored in regulation time (Game 5 went 'over' the total thanks to overtime). That's about what we would expect from two familiar, physical teams. Note that the 'under' is 18-13 in the Knicks last 31 games following an upset loss at home including a 5-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 62-54 with New York seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 21-15 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 with the 76ers playing at home with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points over the last three seasons, which is the case here at the time of writing, including a 3-2 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Game 2 of this series found its way 'over' the total as the Heat staged a massive double-digit upset win. I look for a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami on Saturday. The pace certainly wouldn't lead you to believe we would have seen an 'over' result in Game 2. Miami made the most of its 75 field goal attempts while holding Boston to just 80. Keep in mind, Game 1 was played at a slow pace as well with the Celtics hoisting up 82 and the Heat 81. Note that the 'under' is 36-29 in Boston's last 65 games following an upset loss including a 9-7 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is 17-11 in Miami's last 28 games as a home underdog including a 6-4 record this season. Take the under (10*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday.

The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Knicks held serve at home, winning each of the first two games in this series to head to Philadelphia ahead 2-0. I still think the potential is there for this to be a long series and look for the 76ers to bounce back in Game 3. With that being said, it's worth noting that the Knicks have gone 1-17 ATS in their 18 road losses this season. New York is a long-term 39-54 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less including a 3-6 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons and 1-2 ATS this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 62-49 ATS in its last 111 contests as a home favorite including a 21-12 ATS record this season. The 76ers are also 31-23 ATS in their last 54 games following a road loss including a 13-6 ATS mark this season. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*).

Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*).

Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday.

The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday.

Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*).

Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

I expect the Rockets slumping offense to bust out in a big way in Saturday's rematch against the Suns in Phoenix (the Suns prevailed 110-105 on Thursday). Phoenix is playing with fire (no pun intended) defensively right now as it has allowed an incredible 12 straight and 14 of its last 15 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. It was fortunate that the Rockets shooting woes continued on Thursday as Houston actually got off a whopping 99 field goal attempts. The Rockets certainly haven't been trigger-shy lately, getting off 93, 93, 95 and 99 field goal attempts over their last four contests. I do think it's only a matter of time before Houston's offense takes off again, noting that it recently connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 10 games from January 20th to February 6th. On the flip side, the Suns are just shy of double-digit favorites again on Saturday. They didn't need to be great offensively to prevail in the front half of this two-game set and certainly weren't, making good on just 36-of-89 field goal attempts. They've generally bounced back from subpar shooting nights, connecting on 46, 40 and 44 field goals in their last three games following a sub-40 made field goal performance. Note that the 'over' is 12-7 in the Rockets last 19 contests after scoring 105 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 'over' result the only prevous time that situation came up this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 43-34 in the Suns last 77 games after allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest including a 6-2 record in that situation this season. We've now seen two straight meetings in this series stay 'under' the total. You would have to go back to 2018 to find the last time we saw a three-game 'under' streak between these two teams. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday.

This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*).

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Kings suffered a heart-breaking loss the last time they played in Phoenix back on January 16th as they let the Suns off the hook in a 119-117 defeat (they still covered the spread). I say they let them off the hook because they led that game by 17 points at halftime and 12 points entering the fourth quarter. I like the spot for Sacramento here as it looks to get on track following a 127-113 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday - its third defeat in its last four games. Sacramento continues to play well offensively. It has made good on at least 42 field goals in an incredible 15 of its last 17 games, connecting on 45, 51 and 44 field goals over its last three contests. The Suns have become rather forgiving defensively, allowing at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall. Of course, Phoenix has been red hot offensively but I do think the Kings are capable of at least limiting the Suns scoring opportunities, noting that Sacramento has held three straight and six of its last eight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts (it allows an average of 42-of-87 shooting on the road this season). Note that the Kings are 33-23 ATS in their last 56 games following a double-digit loss, including 8-5 ATS in that situation this season. They're also a long-term 52-43 ATS in their last 95 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more. Meanwhile, Phoenix is just 17-22 ATS in its last 39 games played on two days' rest (note that this is the first time it has had two days between games since January 16th-19th). The Suns are also just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take Sacramento (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday.

I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now but so are the Suns. I do think Golden State is well-positioned to keep it rolling as it returns home on Saturday. Note that the Warriors have been red hot offensively, connecting on 43 or more field goals in 12 straight games including 47 or more in eight of those contests. They'll be facing a rather forgiving Suns defense on Saturday, noting that Phoenix has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. Golden State on the other hand has limited four of its last six foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. More impressively, the Warriors have held five of their last six opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are on a tear offensively but their shots have also been falling at an unsustainable rate as they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight and 12 of their last 14 contests. Phoenix is a long-term 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games and 1-5 ATS this season off a home win by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The Suns are also 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests following three straight ATS victories. Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests playing with triple-revenge (off three straight losses against an opponent). Take Golden State (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The 76ers have lost two games in a row and six of their last seven overall as they struggled to adapt to life without Joel Embiid. I don't think Philadelphia is as bad as it has looked lately, however, and do think it will get things straightened out sooner rather than later. Note that the 76ers opponents have been shooting the lights out during their current slide. The good news is, the Sixers have continued to limit the opposition's scoring opportunities, allowing 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games. On the flip side, it's only a matter of time before the Sixers start cashing in on their own opportunities, noting that they've hoisted up 94, 96 and 93 field goal attempts in their last three contests. The Warriors have gotten a little too loose for my liking defensively, allowing nine of their last 14 opponents to get off at least 89 field goal attempts. While it looks like Golden State has been lighting it up offensively during its current 3-1 run, it has actually been fairly muted, connecting on 44, 46, 46 and 43 field goals in regulation time over that stretch (still impressive numbers but not overwhelmingly so). For Golden State this will be its fifth game in five different cities in the last nine nights. Philadelphia on the other hand has the advantage of staying home for a third straight contest. Note that the Warriors are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests following a double-digit road win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Philadelphia is also 21-17 ATS in its last 38 contests following a double-digit loss. Finally, we'll note that the favorite has covered the spread in three straight meetings in this series. It hasn't done so in four consecutive matchups between these two teams since 2010-12. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The 'under' is an incredible 13-2 in the Knicks last 15 games and I look for that trend to continue as they return home to host the Jazz on Tuesday. Utah got stomped by the Nets in Brooklyn last night. The Jazz are by no means playing good defensive basketball right now but I do think they get a bit of a reprieve in this back-to-back spot. Note that New York, while red hot off seven straight wins, has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in 16 of its last 18 games. It doesn't generally look to push the pace having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 15 straight games entering Tuesday's contest. On the flip side, the Knicks are as locked-in defensively as any team right now having held nine straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Jazz's last 14 games following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-1 in Utah's last seven contests after consecutive games totalling 245 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-19 in the Knicks last 45 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after a road win by 20 points or more. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

There's nothing to fear when it comes to facing the Celtics right now as they've clearly been off their game in recent weeks, going 8-10 ATS over their last 18 games. They're in a tough back-to-back spot on Tuesday after staging a massive fourth quarter rally against the Pelicans to avoid a second straight defeat. Note that Boston has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games. On the flip side, it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in six straight contests with its last four opponents connecting on 43, 42, 45 and 46 field goals. The Pacers on the other hand have reeled off three straight wins and are heating up again offensively, knocking down 43, 53, 58 and 44 field goals over their last four games. They've also held five of their last seven foes to 44 or fewer made field goals - that's progress for this team defensively. The Celtics will be looking to avenge a 133-131 loss in Indiana back on January 8th but they check in just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 44-38 ATS in their last 82 games as a road underdog. Take Indiana (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Clippers roll into this game on the heels of five straight wins, including a stunning rout of the Celtics in Boston on Saturday. The Cavaliers are also red hot, however, having won nine of their last 10 games and I look for them to give the Clips all they can handle on Monday. Note that Los Angeles, while known for its stout defense, has played a little looser lately, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Of Los Angeles' last eight opponents, six have managed to knock down more than 40 field goals. The Cavs don't generally play at a fast pace but have appeared comfortable doing so during their current run, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. They remain as locked-in defensively as any team in the league right now having held six of their last seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips are just 10-13 ATS in their last 23 games following an upset win and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests when that upset win came on the road. They're also a long-term 15-23 ATS in their last 38 games following five straight ATS wins. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests following a double-digit upset win on the road, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 41-26 ATS in their last 67 games following a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday.

Tough spot for the Warriors here as they play the second of back-to-backs following an emotional return to the floor (following the death of their assistant coach last week) in a rout of the Hawks last night. Sacramento comes in rested following consecutive off days, which came on the heels of a much-needed 122-107 win over those same Hawks on Monday. That victory snapped a four-game losing skid. Note that Sacramento is still 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests as the schedule has certainly gotten tougher lately. This marks the start of a key seven-game road trip for the Kings. Note that they check in 26-17 ATS in their last 43 games as a road favorite and 18-10 ATS in their last 28 contests after losing four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 contests following a win by 20 points or more. Take Sacramento (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off a string of relatively low-scoring contests. Boston enters riding a five-game 'under' streak while Miami has seen each of its last seven contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Heat continue to limit opposing offenses although part of that has been as a result of the opposition playing with a considerable lead and controlling the tempo. Boston has been fairly matchup-proof in that regard. The Celtics prefer to push the pace, having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 17 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, Boston's opponents have certainly gotten their fair share of scoring opportunities as the C's have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 15 games. Only twice over the last three seasons has Boston produced five straight 'under' results and on both previous occasions, the 'over' cashed in the next game. Also note that the 'over' is 39-34 in the Celtics last 73 games following a road win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-32 in the Heat's last 72 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Miami's last four games after four straight losses. Take the over (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It may seem a little strange to be throwing around a term like 'revenge' when it comes to two teams that have combined for only four wins this season. I believe it works in this particular situation, however. Charlotte actually opened the campaign with an upset win at home against Atlanta. It couldn't build on that victory though as it fell as a 4.5-point favorite at home against the lowly Pistons two nights later. Note that the road team is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Charlotte dealt Terry Rozier to the Heat in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a first round draft pick yesterday. It was the right move. Rozier certainly adds a lot offensively, particularly as a facilitator but he has become a liability defensively this season. Consider it a case of addition by subtraction at that end of the floor. Note that the Hornets have actually held up reasonably well defensively in recent weeks. They've limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They also enter this contest having held four of their last five foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. It's been a much different story for the Pistons. They've allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they limited an opponent to fewer than 41 made field goals. Note that Charlotte is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite. This season, the Hornets are 6-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Detroit on the other hand is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. It is also a long-term 8-18 ATS in its last 26 contests when playing at home with the total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. Take Charlotte (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Lebron James is expected to miss Tuesday's game for the Lakers as they try to secure a third straight win over the rival Clippers this season. While the Lakers have found recent success it hasn't been on the strength of their defensive play. They've allowed eight straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes connecting on at least 42 field goals. The Clippers figure to push them here, noting Los Angeles has knocked down 47 or more field goals in four of its last six contests. On the flip side, despite generally limiting the tempo of their opposition, the Clippers have allowed four of their last five opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. This will undoubtedly be a game the Clips have circled on their calendar not only due to the fact that they've dropped both previous meetings this season but also after they felt they let the Lakers off the hook in the most recent matchup on January 7th. In that contest, the Clips hoisted up 91 field goal attempts but connected on only 36 of them. Incredibly, that's one of only two times they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in their last 25 contests. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Cavaliers got off to a difficult start this season but they've since turned it around, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. Perhaps no team is as locked-in defensively as Cleveland right now as it has held four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and an incredible 11 straight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Orlando delivered a blowout win over Miami last night. The Magic aren't exactly setting the world on fire offensively right now as they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in seven straight games. In fact, they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 14 straight contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have connected on 43 or more field goals in six of their last nine games including 49 or more three times over that stretch. Note that Cleveland is 40-25 ATS in its last 65 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 48-43 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 100 or more points. Orlando is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests following a win over a division opponent and 13-17 ATS in its last 30 contests after a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*).

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

If the Magic are going to shake out of their extended funk it's likely going to have to come on the strength of their defense. They've clearly lost their mojo offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time they connected on more than 44 field goals. The good news is, Orlando continues to play tough defense having held seven straight opponents to 43 or fewer field goals. Miami is in a similar situation as it has connected on 41 or fewer field goals in an incredible 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Also in a similar vein to the Magic, the Heat have held four of their last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 21-11 in Orlando's last 32 games following a double-digit home loss, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 in the Magic's last 15 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has seen the 'under' go 6-2 in its last eight games following an upset loss against a divisional opponent. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

The Celtics are an incredible 20-0 at home this season but I do think the Nuggets are poised to give them a run on Friday at TD Garden. Boston is coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. Note that the Celtics are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 games following consecutive ATS victories in a favorite role and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests when coming off three straight covers as a fave, as is the case here. Boston is also 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games after holding consecutive opponents to 100 points or less, which is also the situation here. Denver had virtually all hands on deck for Tuesday's game in Philadelphia but ultimately fell by a 126-121 score. Having had a couple of days off to chew on that loss, I look for the Nuggets to bounce back on Friday. Note that Denver is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 contests after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. The Nuggets check in red hot offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in five of their last six games. They figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Celtics squad that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 12 straight games. Take Denver (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 6 pm et on Monday.

The Warriors opened their current road trip with a win in Chicago as they rallied for a wild 140-131 victory. They couldn't keep it going the next night as they dropped a double-digit decision in Milwaukee (Steph Curry was given the night off). While this looks like a prime bounce-back spot given the current state of the Grizzlies roster, I'm not so easily convinced. Memphis lost by 'only' 11 points against a red hot Knicks squad with a lineup that looked like what you would expect in the preseason on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have held five of their last seven opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Regardless who is able to suit up for Memphis on Monday, it should thrive offensively. Note that the opposition has been 'filling it up' against the Warriors lately, knocking down 50 or more field goals in four straight games against them and 48 or more in six of the last eight contests. Note that the underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Grizzlies check in 17-10 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring 100 points or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also 27-17 ATS in their lat 44 games following consecutive ATS losses. Take Memphis (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Kings got their current road trip off to a perfect 2-0 start before running into the 76ers in Philadelphia on Friday. The road won't get any easier with a stop in Milwaukee on deck on Sunday but I look for Sacramento to hang tough. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Kings have had circled on their calendar having lost an incredible 14 straight meetings in this series going back to 2016. There have been plenty of close games over that stretch and I certainly feel that the Kings have closed the talent gap somewhat in recent years. Note that the Kings enter this contest sporting a 10-8 road record (11-7 ATS) while the Bucks are 18-3 SU at home but a money-burning 8-13 ATS. Sacramento has quietly held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Going back farther, the Kings have limited 15 of their last 19 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight contests. The Bucks have shown on interest or ability to slow down the opposition, yielding at least 90 field goal attempts in 16 of their last 18 contests. The Kings are a long-term 60-42 ATS when playing on the road and 34-26 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 37-41 ATS in their last 78 games following a home win and a long-term 80-103 ATS when coming off consecutive home victories. Take Sacramento (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday.

While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This will be the fourth meeting already this season between these two teams and we're inexplicably working with the highest total of the bunch. It is worth noting the 'over' has cashed in all three previous matchups this season. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were already one of the slowest paced teams in the league this season but they've taken it to another level lately, hoisting up an unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 76 field goal attempts or fewer in each of their last four games. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Pelicans have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. On the flip side they've held the opposition to just 35, 39, 36, 39 and 35 made field goals over their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 45-28 with the Pelicans checking in as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 35-21 in the Timberwolves last 56 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

It seems as though the Thunder still aren't being treated like an elite team in the betting marketplace. Here, they're installed as a home underdog against the Celtics, despite playing some of their best basketball of the season - a red hot 7-1 SU and ATS over their last eight games. While Oklahoma City is gaining a reputation for being an outstanding offensive team, and for good reason, I've been even more impressed by its defensive play. Note that the Thunder have allowed just three of their last seven opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In stark contrast, the Celtics have allowed 40+ made field goals in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 contests. Both teams come in following an off day on Monday. The difference I see here is that Boston will be playing in its sixth different city since December 19th while Oklahoma City has only had to leave home for a single game (in Denver) over that same period. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 95-126 ATS when coming off a double-digit road win, as is the case here. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat saw their most recent game on Christmas Night sneak 'over' the total as they outlasted the 76ers on their home floor. Note that Miami has still held nine of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Heat connected on more than 41 field goals. The 'under' is 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 home games when playing on two of more days' rest, as is the case here. They covered but lost 120-114 in Denver on Christmas. Golden State has held seven of its last eight opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals and its last two foes to just 38 and 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets were involved in a relatively high-scoring game last night but what else would you expect against the Pacers. Houston ended up hoisting up an uncharacteristic 97 field goal attempts in that game, largely due to the fact it was playing from behind much of the way. I expect a different game script to unfold against the struggling Suns on Wednesday. While Phoenix has had a tough time winning games it has continued to limit its opponents' opportunities, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last six and nine of its last 14 games. On the flip side, the Suns have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 14 of their last 15 contests. Houston limited Indiana to only 82 field goal attempts last night but the Pacers quite simply shot the lights out, as it often does. The Rockets have been incredibly stingy at home this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 36-of-86 shooting from the field. Houston has seen the 'under' cash in 17 of its last 23 games as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Heat's four-game 'over' streak came to an end last time out against Atlanta while Philadelphia enters Monday's contest riding a two-game 'over' streak. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most in this Christmas Night matchup. Note that the 76ers remain an elite defensive team. They've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals - that's an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. Miami can also hold its own defensively having allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in four straight and eight of its last nine games. Add in the fact that the Heat have been scuffing their heels offensively, knocking down just 41, 40 and 40 field goals over their last three contests but check into this one in a near pk'em range and you can understand why I'm favoring the 'under' in Miami on Monday. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

On paper, this sets up as a track meet as both teams are brimming with offensive talent. However, a closer look leads me to believe we're in for a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Note that Phoenix generally plays at a fairly methodical pace (by today's NBA standards). Last time out, the Suns did hoist up 94 field goal attempts as they were trying to rally against the Blazers in an eventual defeat. Prior to that, Phoenix had gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in eight straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to play well defensively despite having little to show for it in the win column. Phoenix has held seven of its last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Kings obviously pose a stiff challenge but the Suns did hold them to 114 points on 42-of-92 shooting in their most recent meeting on December 8th. Sacramento clearly got caught looking past an undermanned Celtics team that was playing the second of back-to-backs two nights ago, allowing Boston to knock down a whopping 51 field goals in the blowout loss. Prior to that, the Kings had held six straight foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. The fact that Sacramento took the first matchup between these teams this season is notable as the 'under' is 26-14 in the Suns last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points. Take the under (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

Tough spot for the Clippers here as they play the second of back-to-backs after reeling off consecutive wins to open their three-game road trip. In fact, they've won nine straight games overall and five in a row ATS. They played on consecutive nights only once over that stretch and that was at home against Sacramento. The Thunder have been home and cool since Monday, when they rolled to a 19-point win over the Grizzlies. They won't take the floor again until they host the Lakers on Saturday. You could argue that no team is healthier than the Thunder right now and only the Timberwolves own a better record in the Western Conference. The Clippers could understandably be caught looking ahead to a four-game homestand that will begin on Saturday against Boston and take them all the way into the New Year. Note that the home team has gone 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. While we are being asked to lay a considerable number of points with Oklahoma City on this occasion, I believe the line is warranted. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Timberwolves used up a lot of what they had in the tank rallying for Monday's come-from-behind win in Miami - their third straight victory. I look for them to come up short on Wednesday as they stay on the road to face the 76ers. Philadelphia dropped a 108-104 decision against the Bulls on Monday, falling as a double-digit favorite. The 76ers are in a revenge spot here after losing 112-99 in Minnesota back in November. That's notable as they're an impressive 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games played when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Bulls are coming off consecutive high-scoring games against the Heat in Miami but I look for a different story to unfold as they continue their road trip in Philadelphia on Monday. Note that Chicago still held Miami to just 83 field goal attempts last time out. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out. The Bulls have limited five straight opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The 76ers are in terrific defensive form right now having held four straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they are currently red hot offensively, it's worth noting that Chicago had their number last season, limiting them to 40 or fewer made field goals in all four matchups. The 'under' is 13-3 in the 76ers last 16 games when coming off four straight victories by 10 points or more, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Bulls have incredibly held 24 of their 26 opponents to 90 field goal attempts or less this season. That's quite an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The first game of this two-game set in Miami was actually high-scoring, resulting in 240 total points. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday. The Bulls have been performing well offensively in Zach LaVine's absence. They knocked down 45 field goals in Thursday's win over the Heat. With that being said, they're just one game removed from connecting on only 36 field goals in Denver. The Heat have been held to exactly 37 made field goals in three of their last four contests. They're unlikely to push the pace against the Bulls, noting they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 19 of their last 20 games. Thursday's game snapped a streak of five straight contests in which Miami had held the opposition to 87 FG attempts or fewer. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 in the Bulls last 39 road games following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday.

I'll admit my first reaction was to grab the points with the Timberwolves in this game as they look to bounce back following Monday's lopsided defeat in New Orleans. After taking a deeper look, I think the better play is on the 'under' on Thursday night in Dallas. Minnesota has really clamped down defensively in recent games, holding six of its last seven opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In three meetings with the Mavericks last season, the T'Wolves held them to just 84, 75 and 76 field goal attempts. Dallas is no better-suited to take advantage of Minnesota here with a number of key contributors either sidelined or banged-up. I do like the fact that both teams come in rested with the T'Wolves idle since Monday and the Mavs having last played on Tuesday here at home against the Lakers. While Minnesota has been rolling, it hasn't necessarily been blowing the doors off the opposition, knocking down 44 or fewer field goals in 15 consecutive games. While the 'over' has gone 8-3 in its 11 road games this season, those contests have averaged just 226.6 total points. Take the under (10*).

Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Bucks have obviously had this game circled since dropping an ugly one against the Pacers in the in-season tournament semi-final round last week. In fact, Indiana has taken both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Neither of those games were played in Milwaukee, however. The Bucks are 11-1 at home this season while the Pacers have given up just shy of 132 points per game on the road. Note that the Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games as a favorite of six points or less. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Milwaukee is a long-term 27-20 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and 24-19 ATS in its last 43 games following consecutive ATS defeats, which is also the situation here. Take Milwaukee (10*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bulls have quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories, including last night's near-miss in a four-point overtime loss in Milwaukee. Yes, Chicago is missing some key contributors, including Zach LaVine but others like Demar Derozan and Coby White have more than picked up the slack. This isn't a team that is going to get blown out often as it has held an incredible 20 of its last 21 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Nuggets are an excellent defensive team in their own right, they've yielded more than 44 made field goals twice in their last six games alone. Denver did deliver a win and cover in Atlanta last night but that only served to snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak. Note that the Nuggets are long-term losers playing the second of back-to-back nights having gone 210-258 ATS going all the way back to 1996. Denver did take the first meeting between these two teams by a 123-101 score in the Mile High City back in November. It hasn't won consecutive matchups with the Bulls since 2021, going 2-3 SU in the last five meetings. Prior to a 126-103 win in Chicago last November, Denver hadn't won a game at the United Center by more than six points since 2018. Take Chicago (10*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

The Knicks have played just once since last Friday as they got drilled by the Bucks in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Monday. Milwaukee simply couldn't miss in that game, shooting a blistering 60% from the field. I'm confident we'll see the scrappy Knicks respond in this divisional road contest on Friday. They're set up well having gone a long-term 71-44 ATS when coming off a game in which the opposition shot 55% or better from the field. This is a revenge spot for the Knicks as well after they suffered a lopsided 16-point defeat in Boston back in November. Note that New York checks in 6-5 on the road this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points. Boston has dropped the cash in consecutive games and is just 2-7 ATS over its last nine contests. It's difficult to cover these lofty spreads when you're playing as loose as the Celtics are defensively. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in six of their last eight games. Take New York (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

I just don't see the sort of track meet developing that most are expecting as the Suns and Lakers do battle in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Tuesday. The Lakers have already taken the first two meetings between these teams this season and if the Suns want to change the outcome here, they'll likely have to win ugly, noting they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of their last six games. The good news is, the Lakers don't figure to really push the pace. They've hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 18 straight games. They've managed to connect on more than 40 field goals just once in their last four contests and that came against the hapless Pistons. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 123-93 in Lakers home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-23 with the Suns seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Kings enter this game with double-revenge on their minds having dropped both previous matchups with the Warriors this season. That comes on the heels of a hard-fought seven-game series last April. There has really been little separating these two teams, noting the most recent matchup went right down to the wire with the Warriors prevailing by a single point in San Francisco on November 1st. Since then, the Kings have gotten healthier with De'Aaron Fox returning to the lineup. They snapped a two-game slide with a dominant 124-111 win over the red hot Timberwolves in Minnesota on Friday. The Warriors are coming off a less impressive victory (but non-cover) at home against the rebuilding Spurs on Saturday. Note that Golden State is mired in an 0-7-1 ATS slide. I think their better opportunity to snap out of that funk comes on Thursday night at home against the Clippers. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 road games following a win. Take Sacramento (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Lakers ran away with last night's lopsided win over the Jazz on this same floor but should find the going much tougher on Wednesday as they host a rested Mavericks squad. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses but those came on back-to-back nights against two of the league's best teams in the Bucks (on the road) and the Kings (at home). The shoe is on the other foot this time around as they enter this game on two days' rest while the Lakers expended plenty of energy running the Jazz off the court on Tuesday. Add in the fact that it's the eve of Thanksgiving and Los Angeles will likely have one eye on a four-game road trip that starts on Saturday in Cleveland and I believe it's advantage Mavs on Wednesday night. Take Dallas (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Hawks haven't been able to get out of their own way lately, off to an 0-2 start to their current homestand and 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over their last six games overall. Everything has seemingly been a grind for them as they've lacked offensive flow, getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. The Pacers came out rusty against the Magic on Sunday and perhaps that was to be expected following a four-day layoff. They dug themselves a massive 34-point halftime deficit against Orlando before rallying to make things respectable in the second half. Still, it was a loss so they'll be looking to bounce back here, noting they've gone a perfect 3-0 following their last three defeats. For what it's worth, the Pacers remain undefeated in the in-season tournament so they'll be looking to get a step closer to Las Vegas on Tuesday. Take Indiana (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Suns as they catch the Timberwolves playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Phoenix has lost consecutive games, both SU and ATS, and is just 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven contests. With that being said, it is expected to get back some reinforcements on Wednesday, including Devin Booker. It also has the benefit of having been idle since Sunday's double-digit home loss to the Thunder. The Suns are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in seven meetings between these two teams in Phoenix since the start of the 21-22 season. Also note that they're 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 100 points in their previous game, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (10*).

Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

This is a quick revenge spot for the Hornets after they dropped a 132-116 decision as 2.5-point home favorites against the Wizards two nights ago. I like Charlotte's chances of rebounding here. Note that the Wizards are an awful defensive team, allowing 126.9 points per game on a blistering 51.7% shooting this season. The only reason they were able to outlast the Hornets on Wednesday was that Charlotte didn't take care of the basketball, turning it over a season-high 20 times. Note that Washington is a long-term 169-213 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog. The Wizards are also in a classic fade spot of mine as they return home on just one day of rest following a road trip that lasted four games or longer. Take Charlotte (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday.

The upstart Blazers are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an overtime victory over these same Grizzlies on Friday. I look for Memphis to answer back and notch its first victory of the campaign in Sunday's rematch. Memphis actually outshot Portland by a considerable margin on Friday but couldn't overcome a 36-13 discrepancy in terms of free throw attempts. That should even out in Sunday's contest. Note that the Grizzlies are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored at least 110 points, as is the case here. The Blazers are a long-term 43-67 ATS in an underdog role and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 contests as a home underdog of six points or less, outscored by an average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Take Memphis (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Nuggets have reeled off five straight 'under' results to open the season but I think we have a catalyst for change in play as they come off their first defeat of the campaign in Minnesota two nights ago. Denver had an off night shooting the basketball against the T'Wolves, knocking down just 38-of-96 field goal attempts. Prior to that, the Nuggets had made good on more than 40 field goals in all four games, topping out at a whopping 53 made field goals in a win in Oklahoma City. On the flip side, Denver has been terrific defensively but does figure to get tested here. Dallas has knocked down 47, 44 and 42 field goals in its first three games before being held to just 37 in a slow-paced game against the Bulls. Keep in mind, the Mavericks still scored 114 points in that most recent contest and a slower-paced affair was to be expected against Chicago. Defensively, the Mavs warts have yet to be exposed thanks to their strong offensive production. They've actually allowed all four opponents to make good on 42 or more field goals this season and the Nuggets ripped them for a blistering 88-of-162 (54.3%) shooting in two meetings in Denver last season. Take the over (10*).

Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This spot sets up beautifully for the home underdog Timberwolves as they look to bring an end to the defending-champion Nuggets' perfect 4-0 start to the season. Minnesota checks in off an 'upset' road loss in Atlanta s it was crushed by 14 points on Monday. Of course, that was a letdown spot for the T'Wolves as they were fresh off a 16-point home win over the Heat two nights earlier. There's a playoff revenge angle in play here after Denver ousted Minnesota in five games in the opening round last April. That was after the T'Wolves managed to take both regular season meetings here in Minnesota. Note that Denver is a long-term 142-183 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive victories. In Minnesota's last 172 home games following an upset defeat it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.5 points. Take Minnesota (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this play sets up as bettors overreact to season-opening results from these two teams. The Clippers turned in a near-flawless performance but that was at home against what projects to be one of the league's worst teams in the Blazers. Meanwhile, the Jazz dropped a lopsided decision at home but that was against one of the league's true up-and-coming teams in the Kings. I look for the script to flip on Friday night, noting that Utah is a long-term 42-14 straight-up at home against Los Angeles including four straight wins going back to the start of the 2021-22 season. This is one of those tough one-game road trips for the Clippers, in altitude no less, before they return home for winnable games against the Spurs and Magic on Sunday and Tuesday. Should the Jazz fall again here, they'll be starting at a very tough start with a two-game trip to Phoenix and Denver on deck. Take Utah (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams saw their respective season openers stay 'under' the total but I expect a different story to unfold as the Suns and Lakers match up in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Suns actually allowed Golden State to get off a whopping 101 field goal attempts on Tuesday but the Warriors couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 36 of those attempts in a four-point loss. Meanwhile, Phoenix played with pace (95 field goal attempts) and shot reasonably well (42 made field goals), even with key offseason acquisition Bradley Beal sidelined (he's questionable to play on Thursday as well). The Lakers limited Denver to just 91 FG attempts on Tuesday but the Nuggets had little trouble against L.A.'s sieve-like defense, connecting on 48 of those shot attempts. I did come away impressed with the Lakers ability to at least match the Nuggets tempo (91 FG attempts). They simply had an off night shooting - something I expect them to rectify in their home-opener on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Suns coming off a victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 233.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

This series has taken a low-scoring tone for the most part with three of the first four games staying 'under' the total. As I've noted in my analysis of the last two contests, Miami hasn't been able to break through the offensive ceiling against Denver this season, making good on 39, 39, 39, 38, 34 and 35 field goals in six matchups. On the flip side, the Heat have held an incredible 20 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. In this series, Miami has limited Denver to 40, 39, 41 and 39 made field goals. There are still plenty of bettors chasing the 'over' in this series and as a result the oddsmakers can only set this number so low. It's not low enough in my opinion, noting that the 'under' is 16-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season and 14-6 with the Nuggets following five consecutive games in which they shot 47% or better from the field, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

While the Heat did outlast the Nuggets 111-108 in Game 2 of this series, they still failed to break through the offensive ceiling, connecting on only 38 field goals in another relatively slow-paced affair. Note that Miami has now knocked down 39, 39, 39 and 38 field goals in four meetings with the Nuggets this season. On the flip side, the Heat have now held an incredible 18 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've limited six straight and 10 of their last 11 foes to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat exploded for 17 made three-pointers in Game 2 but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Nuggets have held opponents to an average of 12 made threes per contest on the road this season. The 'under' is 20-9 with Denver coming off consecutive games in which it shot 50% or better from the field, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a long-term 129-96 with the Heat playing at home on two or more days' rest, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*).

Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*).

Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday.

We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday.

It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday.

The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*).

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday.

The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*).