Super Bowl 51 – How To Bet The Big Game
The Super Bowl attracts more bettors than any other sporting event in America. Last year Nevada based casinos booked a record 4.2 billion in bets on the big game. They are expected to surpass that this year with a projected 4.7 billion. It’s my job to predict who’s going to win, and last year I delivered not only the winning side (Denver), but also the winning total (under 45).
If you ask me who’s going to win the Super Bowl this year, there’s only one way for me to answer that question. The only sure thing is that the bookmakers will win, they always do. Last year an estimated 59 percent of spread bettors picked Carolina. The overwhelming majority of action on the Super Bowl comes from the general public. These aren’t professional gamblers with years of experience, in fact for many people this will be the only bet they place all year.
If you’re one of those people, a guy that just wants to get in on the fun and risk a bit of money on the big game, then you should listen very carefully to what I am about to tell you. I am going to suggest that picking the team you think is going to win, and betting a few bucks on that team, would be a mistake.
At best you have a 50 percent chance of winning your bet, and you’re going to have to risk 10 percent more than you will win (vigorish). If the game is a blowout, your ticket could be worthless by halftime. My suggestion would be to pick the team you think will win, and bet on that team’s top three players to score touchdowns (player props).
Now if two of those three bets come in, you will be a winner. The beauty is, your team could easily lose the game, and two or even all three of those bets could still win. If your team wins the game, they are likely to score a lot of points, hence chances are good that their top players will score touchdowns. Even if the game is a blowout, all your bets are still live, and still have a chance to cash right up until the final whistle (that’s more fun).
I’ve done very well with player prop bets throughout my career, and I cashed in 67 percent of these wagers during the regular season. Prior to the NFC Championship game, I wrote two articles that described what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. When the Packers played the Falcons, we saw the highest projected total in NFL playoff history. Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers.
The result was a windfall of profits for myself, and those who chose to take my advice. Here we are two weeks later, and the projected total for the Super Bowl is the highest it’s ever been, and it will likely get higher. This makes the player prop market your best option for betting Super Bowl 51.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go under the total.
The Warriors haven't been as dominant this season as they have been in recent years, and they come into Denver trailing the Nuggets by a half game for top spot in the West. Denver has been successful thanks to their 4th best defense that allows just 105.5 points per game. History tells us that these teams have played strong defense in past meetings. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone under the total. Given that the winner of this game will take over first place in the Western Conference Standings, we could see a game with a playoff atmosphere. The under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 home games versus teams with a winning road record. I think tonight's total looks a little high.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on Over 139.5.
The Boilermakers are coming off an 84-80 win over Wisconsin, and high scoring games have been the norm for Purdue this year. They have gone over in six of their last eight overall, and the over is 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. They have scored 79.4 points per game in their last five overall, but they have also conceded more than 70 points per game during that span. They scored exactly 82 points in each of their last two home games against Rutgers. The over is 6-1 in the Scarlet Knights last seven versus the Big Ten. Purdue won the last meeting 82-75, and I expect a similar score tonight.
Take Over.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total.
The Anaheim Ducks have lost 11 straight overall, and they come into the Motor City as a desperate hockey club. They are still in the hunt, just two points out of a playoff spot, so there's no reason to expect them to give up on the season just yet. Offense has been hard to come by for the Ducks, ranking 30th in the NHL in scoring. Goals have been hard to come by for Detroit as well, and that's especially true in previous meetings with the Ducks. Anaheim is 3-1 in the last four meetings, and Detroit has only scored six goals in those games. Three of the four games went under the total. The under is 8-3-2 in the Ducks last 13 overall, and 34-15-2 in their last 51 road games.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
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