Super Bowl 51 – How To Bet The Big Game

Written on January 31st, 2017 by Jesse Schule in
NFL

The Super Bowl attracts more bettors than any other sporting event in America. Last year Nevada based casinos booked a record 4.2 billion in bets on the big game. They are expected to surpass that this year with a projected 4.7 billion. It’s my job to predict who’s going to win, and last year I delivered not only the winning side (Denver), but also the winning total (under 45).

If you ask me who’s going to win the Super Bowl this year, there’s only one way for me to answer that question. The only sure thing is that the bookmakers will win, they always do. Last year an estimated 59 percent of spread bettors picked Carolina. The overwhelming majority of action on the Super Bowl comes from the general public. These aren’t professional gamblers with years of experience, in fact for many people this will be the only bet they place all year.

If you’re one of those people, a guy that just wants to get in on the fun and risk a bit of money on the big game, then you should listen very carefully to what I am about to tell you. I am going to suggest that picking the team you think is going to win, and betting a few bucks on that team, would be a mistake.

At best you have a 50 percent chance of winning your bet, and you’re going to have to risk 10 percent more than you will win (vigorish). If the game is a blowout, your ticket could be worthless by halftime. My suggestion would be to pick the team you think will win, and bet on that team’s top three players to score touchdowns (player props).

Now if two of those three bets come in, you will be a winner. The beauty is, your team could easily lose the game, and two or even all three of those bets could still win. If your team wins the game, they are likely to score a lot of points, hence chances are good that their top players will score touchdowns. Even if the game is a blowout, all your bets are still live, and still have a chance to cash right up until the final whistle (that’s more fun).

I’ve done very well with player prop bets throughout my career, and I cashed in 67 percent of these wagers during the regular season. Prior to the NFC Championship game, I wrote two articles that described what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. When the Packers played the Falcons, we saw the highest projected total in NFL playoff history. Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers.

The result was a windfall of profits for myself, and those who chose to take my advice. Here we are two weeks later, and the projected total for the Super Bowl is the highest it’s ever been, and it will likely get higher. This makes the player prop market your best option for betting Super Bowl 51.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Blue Jays vs Orioles	Orioles +1½ -140	Premium	4-1	Loss	-140	Show
This is a free play on the Orioles. The Blue Jays have clinched a Wild Card spot, and the Orioles have been eliminated. Game 1 in Baltimore won't have any playoff implications, but it's a chance for some players to finish strong and pad their stats at the end of the year. Perhaps nobody has more to gain than Dean Kremer, who has had a solid season for the Orioles and will make his final start. His last home start was a complete game shutout win over Houston. He signed a one year contract with Baltimore for just 700K, and he could be in for a big pay day in the off-season. Jose Berrios will go for the Blue Jays, and he's always been a Jeckyll and Hyde picher (home/away). He's 7-2 with a 4.25 ERA in Toronto, and 4-5 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. The Orioles should be a favorite in this game. GL, Jesse Schule
Rams vs 49ers	Rams +110	Premium	9-24	Loss	-100	Show
This is a 2* play on LAR. Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco coaching staff made a mistake naming Trey Lance the starter in the offseason, and while they are fortunate they still have Jimmy G, it might take a while for him to get up to speed. He threw for 211 yards with a TD and an INT on 18-of-29 passing in a loss to the Broncos last Sunday. He threw for 232 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 16-of-30 passing in a 20-17 loss to the Rams in last year's playoffs. San Francisco blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter of that game. It wasn't the first time that Shanahan blew a double digit lead in the playoffs, he's done it twice in the Super Bowl versus the Chiefs and the Patriots. The Rams should have an edge with Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The favorite has failed to cover in seven straight meetings between these two teams, and I think the bookmakers made an error listing San Francisco as the favorite for this game. GL, Jesse Schule

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Jesse Schule	$360
Matt Fargo	$340
Will Rogers	$285
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Stephen Nover	$210
AAA Sports	$205

Super Bowl 51 – How To Bet The Big Game

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