Super Bowl 51 – How To Bet The Big Game
The Super Bowl attracts more bettors than any other sporting event in America. Last year Nevada based casinos booked a record 4.2 billion in bets on the big game. They are expected to surpass that this year with a projected 4.7 billion. It’s my job to predict who’s going to win, and last year I delivered not only the winning side (Denver), but also the winning total (under 45).
If you ask me who’s going to win the Super Bowl this year, there’s only one way for me to answer that question. The only sure thing is that the bookmakers will win, they always do. Last year an estimated 59 percent of spread bettors picked Carolina. The overwhelming majority of action on the Super Bowl comes from the general public. These aren’t professional gamblers with years of experience, in fact for many people this will be the only bet they place all year.
If you’re one of those people, a guy that just wants to get in on the fun and risk a bit of money on the big game, then you should listen very carefully to what I am about to tell you. I am going to suggest that picking the team you think is going to win, and betting a few bucks on that team, would be a mistake.
At best you have a 50 percent chance of winning your bet, and you’re going to have to risk 10 percent more than you will win (vigorish). If the game is a blowout, your ticket could be worthless by halftime. My suggestion would be to pick the team you think will win, and bet on that team’s top three players to score touchdowns (player props).
Now if two of those three bets come in, you will be a winner. The beauty is, your team could easily lose the game, and two or even all three of those bets could still win. If your team wins the game, they are likely to score a lot of points, hence chances are good that their top players will score touchdowns. Even if the game is a blowout, all your bets are still live, and still have a chance to cash right up until the final whistle (that’s more fun).
I’ve done very well with player prop bets throughout my career, and I cashed in 67 percent of these wagers during the regular season. Prior to the NFC Championship game, I wrote two articles that described what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. When the Packers played the Falcons, we saw the highest projected total in NFL playoff history. Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers.
The result was a windfall of profits for myself, and those who chose to take my advice. Here we are two weeks later, and the projected total for the Super Bowl is the highest it’s ever been, and it will likely get higher. This makes the player prop market your best option for betting Super Bowl 51.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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This is a Free NFLX play on Seattle.
Pete Carroll's pre-season record took a hit last season when the Seahawks went 0-4, and Seattle came up just short in a loss to Minnesota last week. The Seahawks starters looked pretty good though, and they should see a lot more time here in the third game of the pre-season. The Seahawks have won six of nine Week 3 pre-season games under Pete Carroll. The Chargers are just 3-7 in the pre-season under Anthony Lynn, and given the injury to safety Derwin James we should expect coach Lynn to be particularly cautious with his starters for the remainder of the pre-season.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
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