Super Bowl 51 – How To Bet The Big Game

Written on January 31st, 2017 by Jesse Schule in
NFL

The Super Bowl attracts more bettors than any other sporting event in America. Last year Nevada based casinos booked a record 4.2 billion in bets on the big game. They are expected to surpass that this year with a projected 4.7 billion. It’s my job to predict who’s going to win, and last year I delivered not only the winning side (Denver), but also the winning total (under 45).

If you ask me who’s going to win the Super Bowl this year, there’s only one way for me to answer that question. The only sure thing is that the bookmakers will win, they always do. Last year an estimated 59 percent of spread bettors picked Carolina. The overwhelming majority of action on the Super Bowl comes from the general public. These aren’t professional gamblers with years of experience, in fact for many people this will be the only bet they place all year.

If you’re one of those people, a guy that just wants to get in on the fun and risk a bit of money on the big game, then you should listen very carefully to what I am about to tell you. I am going to suggest that picking the team you think is going to win, and betting a few bucks on that team, would be a mistake.

At best you have a 50 percent chance of winning your bet, and you’re going to have to risk 10 percent more than you will win (vigorish). If the game is a blowout, your ticket could be worthless by halftime. My suggestion would be to pick the team you think will win, and bet on that team’s top three players to score touchdowns (player props).

Now if two of those three bets come in, you will be a winner. The beauty is, your team could easily lose the game, and two or even all three of those bets could still win. If your team wins the game, they are likely to score a lot of points, hence chances are good that their top players will score touchdowns. Even if the game is a blowout, all your bets are still live, and still have a chance to cash right up until the final whistle (that’s more fun).

I’ve done very well with player prop bets throughout my career, and I cashed in 67 percent of these wagers during the regular season. Prior to the NFC Championship game, I wrote two articles that described what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. When the Packers played the Falcons, we saw the highest projected total in NFL playoff history. Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers.

The result was a windfall of profits for myself, and those who chose to take my advice. Here we are two weeks later, and the projected total for the Super Bowl is the highest it’s ever been, and it will likely get higher. This makes the player prop market your best option for betting Super Bowl 51.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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The Iceman's 9-1 start to the MLB season in 2022 was overshadowed by his PERFECT 10-0 start to the NFL season, and his 22-3 (88%) start with college football. Keep in mind .. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Wings vs Sky	Wings +3½ -110	Premium	88-94	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Dallas. The Wings are still undefeated, and last year they were the only team in the WNBA with a better record on the road than at home. They look good on the road here against a Chicago Sky team that lost three of it's top four scorers from last year. The Sky lost their only home game to a below average Washington Mystics squad, and both their wins have come against inferior opponents in close games. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule
AFC Bournemouth vs Everton	Everton -180	Premium	0-1	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on Everton. The math is simple for the Toffees, win and you're in. They appeared to be destined for relegation, but after earning points in three of their last four matches they are in the driver's seat here at home on "Survival Sunday". They draw a favorable matchup against a Bournemouth team that has nothing to play for, and has one of the worst goal differentials in away matches in the Premier League. In fact only Southampton ranks worse. GL, Jesse Schule
West Ham United vs Leicester	Leicester -107	Free	1-2	Win	100	Show
This a Free play on Leicester. Leicester needs a win here to avoid relegation, and they also need help. They face a West Ham club that should be resting players here ahead of a much bigger match that will decide if they play in Europe next season. The Hammers play Fiorentina in the Europa Conference League final on June 7, and a win will get them into the Europa League next year. That makes this match all the more meaningless for West Ham, and they are just 3-3-12 in away matches in the Premier League this season. GL, Jesse Schule
Nationals vs Royals	Nationals -104	Premium	2-3	Loss	-104	Show
This is a 4* play on WAS. The Nats have won five of their last seven, and they have a favorable matchup in Game 3 in Kansas City. MacKenzie Gore will toe the slab for Washington, and he's 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts on the road. The Royals hand the ball to Daniel Lynch, who got rocked in his last rehab start at Triple A Omaha. He allowed five runs on nine hits in 3 2/3 innings, but some chalked it up as a success because he also struck out eight. The Royals are 7-21 in their last 28 home games, and they have lost six of their last seven versus left-handers. GL, Jesse Schule
Reds vs Cubs	Cubs -150	Premium	8-5	Loss	-150	Show
This is a 4* play on CHC. The Bad News Bears have lost 10 of their last 13 overall, but if there is a silver lining they are playing at home against a Cincinnati team that has been just as bad. Graham Ashcraft will toe the rubber for the Reds, and he's been just crushed in his last two starts. He allowed 14 runs on 20 hits over 10 innings in losses to the Rockies and Cardinals. The Cubs hand the ball to Drew Smyly, who is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in five home starts. The Reds are 9-24 in their last 33 road games versus a left-handed starter. GL, Jesse Schule
Rangers vs Orioles	Orioles -142	Premium	2-3	Win	100	Show
This is a 4* play on BAL. The Rangers won the first two games of this series in Baltimore, but they have a tough pitching matchup here in Game 3. Cody Bradford will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's been torched for six runs on seven hits in five innings in a home loss to Atlanta in his debut. The Orioles hand the ball to Kyle Bradish, who is 1-0 with a 3.62 ERA in his last five starts. The Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games versus a left-handed starter, and they are 16-6 in their last 22 games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule

Super Bowl 51 – How To Bet The Big Game

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