Matt Fargo Premium Picks

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back blowout losses within their division as they allowed 44 and 41 points and the line move for this week tells the story. The five losses prior to this two-game skid were by a combined 13 points so this is another buy low team that is going to have zero public action on them today. A lot of that is based on recency bias on them and their opponent. Jacksonville is coming off an impressive blowout win over the Chargers and now in a horrible situational spot. The Jaguars blew a huge fourth quarter lead against Houston two games back and teams that do that and win their next game have gone 9-20-2 ATS in the third game and they come in as the overpriced favorite. This is the fade spot we love. Additionally, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 2016. 10* (256) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Patriots just keep getting it done as they have now won eight straight games and are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC. They have been unbeatable on the road and the most profitable team at a perfect 5-0 ATS and are in the prime sell high spot. Teams that have won eight or more straight games are just 39-61-2 ATS including 14-34 ATS on the road. Two road games back, were -6.5 at Tennessee and are now favored more and have eclipsed that key one possession number. The Bengals has been ravaged with injuries and will be shorthanded again with wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase serving a one game suspension. The quarterback situation was a concern coming in but Joe Flacco has been cleared and there could be a Joe burrow sighting if needed as he practiced Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. While New England is the sell high team, Cincinnati is the buy low team at the great number. 10* (248) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our AFC Game of the Month. We played on the Browns last week and they brought it in at home against the Ravens, doing their best to lose it but we are now fading as Cleveland hits the road in an awful spot. They have been winless on the road and have not even covered a number on the highway and going back, the Browns are 5-17 ATS on the road in their last 22 games away from home, the least profitable team over the last three seasons. And they will be breaking in a new starter with Shedeur Sanders making his first career start and the last 17 quarterbacks making their maiden start in Clevland have gone 0-17. The Raiders have lost four straight games and come in with an identical 2-8 record and while they are 1-4 at home, they have been more competitive with a pair of losses by a single point. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss, with a losing record on the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (258) Las Vegas Raiders