Matt Fargo Premium Picks

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE HORNETS for our NBA NonConf. Game of the Month. Charlotte is coming off a 20-point loss at Golden St. as a 7.5-point underdog and now the Hornets head to Denver to conclude their five-game roadtrip and now they are only getting a bucket and that tells us which side is the right side. Charlotte is making progress as it has 15 wins after finishing with 19 victories all of last season and since late November, the Hornets are a respectable 11-13 while going 16-8 against the number which is a mix of being undervalued and competitive. Going back further, they are 10-2 ATS following an ATS loss. Denver is obviously not the same Denver but it has been playing well despite all of the injuries as it has won four straight and six of its last seven games and after a hard fought win over lowly Washington last night, this is a tough spot. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 where the line is +3 to -3 - after having covered three of their last four games against the spread, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) since 2017. 10* (555) Charlotte Hornets

This is a play on the PURDUE FORT WAYNE MASTODONS for our Sunday Free Play. We had Milwaukee last Sunday as our free play and the Panthers pulled away late for the cover over IU Indianapolis but we are going against them this week as this team is not right. They came into the season as the favorites to win the Horizon League but after a 3-0 start, they have gone 1-4 in the conference and at .500, they are No. 7 in the conference in the NET Rankings. Milwaukee is just 1-8 on the road with the win coming against Cleveland St., the worst team in the Horizon and in all of Division I. Purdue Fort Wayne has won three straight games, including the last two on the road, to go to 5-3 in the conference. The Mastodons are back home where they are 8-1 with a loss against resurgent Green Bay on January 1 and they will certainly be up for this one. Prior to that Green Bay loss, they went to Milwaukee and were handed a 22-point loss so there is a chance for some quick payback. Play (832) Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

CBB 140-125-1 Run. THREE plays Sunday. NBA 25-12-1 Run continues tonight. CFB 28-14 run. CFB Game of the Year for the CFP Final. 241-212-10 NFL Run. TWO Divisional Winners on Sunday. All Sports Sub Gets Everything!

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CBB Platinum Pickem. We cannot be sold on North Texas and especially trying to cover a number as short as this when winning outright has been suspect. The Mean Green are 10-7 but this includes a 1-4 record on the road with the win being somewhat decent against No. 191 South Alabama by only one point. They do have a solid win over Tulsa but of the other eight wins, two were against non-Division I teams and the other six against teams ranked No. 288, 304, 219, 256, 293 and 306. Tulane had a five-game winning streak snapped with a loss at home against UAB on Wednesday which was its third home loss of the season and that is helping keep the number down. This is a big one with two road games on deck and even though the Green Wave are 3-0 on the road, they need to protect home court. 10* (840) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our AAC Game of the Month. UAB is coming off a pair of road wins at East Carolina and Tulane to move over .500 in the American for the first time this season at 3-2. While it can be argued the Blazers have been lucky as two of those wins came in overtime, it can be looked at the other way as UAB is 12-6 overall with the last five losses coming by one or two possessions including four of those at home so the 6-4 record in Birmingham is not as bad as it seems. The number is taking into account that home record. Tulsa has been a pleasant surprise as it bounced back from a pair of losses with a 12-point win at Charlotte on Wednesday with these three games coming after a 13-1 start, the only loss coming at Kansas St. by a point. We were on the Golden Hurricane on Wednesday but are fading them here in the second of a back-to-back road set. 10* (838) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CBB Afternoon Dominator. Temple is coming off a tough loss against Memphis last time out as it fell by two points as a 7.5-point underdog. The loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Owls which are now 3-1 in the American. They return home where they are 8-1 with the loss coming against Boston College of all teams and going back, they have won 20 of their last 23 at the Liacouras Center and one of those losses was against Florida Atlantic so there is revenge in play. This is an important game in Philadelphia for the team, players and fans as this is the first home game since the sudden death of assistant coach Bill Courtney on Tuesday and this one is for him. Florida Atlantic has won three straight games to move to 4-1 in the conference and those were three massive wins over UAB, Memphis and Wichita St. so this spells letdown. 10* (826) Temple Owls

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams got away with one against Carolina and the Panthers certainly had their number this season and now they remain on the road in another bad weather game and one that will be much colder. That could have an adverse effect on Los Angeles but Matthew Stafford is 2-3 when playing in a temperature of 30 points or less. Stafford is 4-0 in his playoff career as a favorite and teams coming off a win but who failed to cover and not coming off a bye  are 21-12 ATS since 2003-04 including 8-2 ATS since 2020-21. The top five teams in the Luck Ratings remain alive in the playoffs and coming in at No. 3 is Chicago as the Bears did it yet again. As mentioned last week, Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter and that total went up to seven. They were down 21-3 and outscored Green Bay 25-6 in the fourth quarter including the final 15 points in the final 4:18 of the game. Sure, they can do it again but now face the only remaining team that is in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA. Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 8-30 in the Divisional Round since 2003 including 3-22 since 2011. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (393) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. New England passed its first test as it was able to breakaway from the Chargers for a 16-3 win thanks to the defense that allowed just 207 yards against an offensive line that was completely dominated. The offense they face this week is not that much better as far EPA goes but the offensive line is healthy and a much better pass blocking unit, finishing No. 5 in Pass Blocking Efficiency. Drake Maye is the story and in his career he has faced only five winning teams at the time of the game at home, going 2-3 including 1-1 this season with the Chargers being the win. The 16 points scored on offense is an issue not only facing the best defense in the league but since 2011, teams are 4-9 in their next playoff game after scoring under 20 points in a playoff victory. Houston has won 10 straight games which started from that improbable comeback against Jacksonville where it outscored the Jaguars 26-0 in the fourth quarter. This comes after starting the season 0-3 and the Texans are one of only seven teams to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start and they are actually the only team to now do it twice. Defense can take over a game and we saw that last week in Pittsburgh as the No. 1 ranked Defensive EPA team dominated the Steelers by allowing 175 yards and just six points while scoring two defensive touchdowns. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 2021. 10* (387) Houston Texans