Matt Fargo Premium Picks

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Houston has a quick turnaround for some revenge after losing to the Lakers here on Monday by eight points. The Rockets have been very average of late as they are 4-5 over their last nine games while going just 2-7 ATS and we are seeing a big line flip as the Rockets actually closed as underdogs on Monday and are slight favorites for now. The Lakers win made it six straight wins and covers while going 9-1 straight up and ATS over their last 10 games. They are in third place in the Western Conference and that victory put them a game and a half ahead of the Rockets so this is now a huge game for Houston. Once again, this is sell high time and at a good price as Los Angeles is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following three or more consecutive covers. Here, we play on home teams averaging between 108 and 114 ppg and after scoring 95 points or less going up against teams allowing between 114 and 118 ppg. This situation is 28-12 (70 percent) since 2022. 10* (550) Houston Rockets

This is a play on the MURRAY ST. RACERS for our CBB NIT Wednesday Ultimate Underdog. It was a great start for Murray St. as it opened 16-3 that included a 12-game losing streak but the Racers struggled down the stretch with a 4-9 record the rest of the way but they have new life. They were a sleeper play in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament but got derailed in the first game against a red hot Illinois Chicago team and many thought the season might be done but they got the NIT call. This team loves to run as they are No. 14 in Adjusted Tempo and possess the No. 73 ranked Offensive Efficiency mark and catching a number this big is in their favor. Nevada had a similar path to the NIT as it opened 11-3 but closed 11-9 and it needs to be worth noting three of those final 11 wins were against Air Force. The Wolf Pack only have two losses at home but are being asked to win by a margin they have not done so of late. 10* (699) Murray St. Racers

This is a play on the UTAH VALLEY WOLVERINES for our CBB NIT Wednesday Enforcer. Utah Valley ran into a buzzsaw that was Cal Baptist that closed the season on a huge run as it lost the WAC Championship by a bucket. There will be plenty of motivation for the Wolverines as they were in a similar spot last season when they won the regular season but lost in the championship and had to hit the road in the first round on the NIT and lost at San Francisco. Now they get to play a home game where they have not lost this season as they are 15-0 and the devastating last second loss would carry over on the road but the home floor will cure that. George Washington snuck by Fordham in the Atlantic Ten Tournament but lost to St. Louis and the Revolutionaries come into the NIT with losses in 11 of their last 18 games and have defeated only one team ranked as high as Utah Valley, which was the second game of the season. 10* (694) Utah Valley Wolverines

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CBB Wednesday Play In Winner. To no surprise, Miami Ohio is getting a huge majority of the money with the handle at 86 percent and 89 percent respectively and we have seen the line come down because of it. The RedHawks could become the biggest bet First Four team of all time and if it sticks on this path, they are the huge fade. Since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams that have received 82 percent or higher of the handle are 0-8 ATS and the story behind Miami Ohio makes it even more appealing to fade. The RedHawks obviously played no one from the nonconference as their best win was against No. 140 Wright St. and now they face their first major conference opponent. SMU was on the bubble toward the end of the season as it lost four straight to end the regular season before getting bumped by Louisville by four points. We buy low on a favorite. 10* (687) SMU Mustangs