Matt Fargo Premium Picks

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CBB Afternoon Dominator. It has been a horrible start for East Carolina as it is off to a 3-7 start following a 7-4 start last season through the same date and this is now the time to buy low. The Pirates are 1-8 against the number in their lined games with the one cover being by one point as a 10-point underdog in a nine-point loss against St. Bonaventure. The schedule has been average and East Carolina is 0-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games and drop down to Quad 3 here. Buffalo has been on the opposite side of things as it is 9-1 following a road win at UMBC which came right after that initial loss as St. Bonaventure. The Bulls are 3-0 on the road which is adding value and this is a tough spot with this being the first time this season they have played back-to-back road games and Buffalo has its MAC opener on deck. 10* (750) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This is the contrarian angle of backing a favorite that nobody wants a part of even though it comes with the public Kansas City name. The Chiefs are all but done for a shot at the playoffs unless they win out and get some help and they will need a lot of help but they are in the ideal situation. They have failed to cover their last five games while going 4-11 in their last 15 games as favorites and have been on the complete opposite side of winning close games. Kansas City set an NFL record of 17 straight one possession wins but have lost all six this season prior to their 10-point loss to Houston last week. The Chargers are coming off an overtime win over the Eagles which puts them in a bad spot because of that but also being a short week and needing to travel. The offensive line took another hit and they are facing a legit defense. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points revenging an upset loss as a favorite and off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +13.1 ppg. 10* (468) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Cincinnati is coming off a brutal loss at Buffalo last week which basically ruined any shot of the division even though the Bengals could be in a good spot based on schedule. They are coming off a pair of road games in the return of Joe Burrow so this will be his first home game since coming back. The issue is he is not fully vested based on his presser this week and he still has to deal with the defense that is dead last in the NFL in EPA. Over the last 10 games, they have allowed 26 or more points nine times with the lone exception being giving up 14 points to this same Baltimore team on Thanksgiving but that was due to five Ravens turnovers. The Ravens are coming off a three-game homestand and that is fine as this team needed to get out and are now a game out of first place. The schedule sets up horrible with New England next week as their final home game and then two road games to close against Green Bay and Pittsburgh making this one a must. Here, we play on road teams with a losing record in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against an opponent. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (465) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston was down huge against Jacksonville and came back by outscoring the Jaguars 26-0 in the fourth quarter to pull off the miracle win, yes we were part of that miracle, and it has been nonstop winning since then. The Texans have won their last four games after that victory including three on the road and now it is the time to sell in the first of two sleepy spots with the Raiders on deck. The defense has been just getting better as they have allowed only 58 points over their last 17 quarters but are laying a number that has happened only once with C.J. Stroud at quarterback as he has been favored by eight or more points only once and it was last season in an outright loss against the Titans. Arizona is on the opposite side in a buy low spot after getting rolled by the Rams last Sunday to make it five straight losses and this is the time to back the Cardinals. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (455) Arizona Cardinals