Matt Fargo Premium Picks

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Bucks are coming off a loss to the Lakers on Saturday by 24 points and they have alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games, following up losses with wins and vice versa and on the season, Milwaukee is 5-0 this season following a loss. They head to Cleveland trying to snap a six-game losing streak to the Cavaliers that includes a four-game series sweep last season and losing the first game in Cleveland this season by five points. The loss to the Lakers was overly surprising as the Bucks were off an overtime win over Charlotte. Cleveland is coming off an eight-point win over Memphis and it too has been up and down, alternating wins and losses over its last five games. The Cavaliers remain home where they are 5-2 but this team is not close to the one that snuck up on the league last season and injuries have played a role. Cleveland is still short-handed as point guard Darius Garland (left toe bruise), swingman Jaylon Tyson (concussion) and shooting guard Max Strus (left foot surgery) are out. Here, we play on road teams against division opponents, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 46-16 ATS (74.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (549) Milwaukee Bucks

This is a play on the UC SANTA BARBARA GAUCHOS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. Loyola Marymount is off to a 5-0 start which is a surprise based on season expectations but not necessarily based on the schedule as it has been tame. The Lions are coming off a 17-win season and lost four starters and are projected No. 11 in the West Coast Conference. Because of their start, we are getting value and while their Effective Field Goal shooting numbers are solid on both ends, the one liability that will haunt them eventually in their free throw shooting as they are hitting 58.5 percent in the four Division I games which is No. 352 in the nation out of 365 teams. UC Santa Barbara is also undefeated at 3-0 playing a tougher schedule and the Gauchos are back home after a win at Sacramento St. six days ago so there has been plenty of time to get ready for this revenge game after losing in Los Angeles by a bucket last season. It was a 21-win season for the Gauchos and a middle of the pack finish in the Big West Conference and are projected No. 2 this year featuring Connecticut transfer Aidan Mahaney, the preseason BWC Player of the Year. Here, we play against road teams after four or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season. This situation is 91-42 ATS (68.4 percent) since 2022. 10* (822) UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

This is a play on the NORTH DAKOTA ST. BISON for our CBB Revenge Rout. We played on Southern Illinois in its last game as a comp play but that was just as much of a play against Nevada as the Wolf Pack are not good. The Salukis took them to overtime before losing by five points and are back on the road and now favored and they should not be. Scott Nagy was hired as the new head coach last season in trying to rebuild the roster but the year two offseason was a lot smoother as the transfer portal did not hurt too much as six players returned including a pair of starters but are still picked middle of the pack in the MVC. North Dakota St. is coming off a successful 21-win season and is expected to contend in the Summit League once again. Only one starter is back but one player who did not play last season is also back as Damari Wheeler-Thomas has averaged 16.5 ppg in his last two games. The Bison remain home following two blowout wins in Fargo and playing with revenge after a 25-point loss in Carbondale last season. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 allowing between 63 and 67 ppg and after a win by 20 or more points going up against teams allowing between 67 and 74 ppg. This situation is 26-2 ATS (92.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (810) North Dakota St. Bison

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CBB Supreme Annihilator. NC State is rolling along as it is 3-0 and has covered all three games as favorites of -30.5, -20 and -32 and this number is telling us they are taking a big step up in competition but that is just based on name. The Wolfpack are coming off a horrible 12-19 season including 5-15 in the ACC but are projected to finish No. 4 in the 18-team conference. NC State does not have a lookahead as it faces Seton Hall, the worst team in the Big East Conference, before facing Auburn so the game against the Pirates could be the fade game. The Rams are coming off an NCAA Tournament berth and now it is a rebuild. They lost their top five scorers and brought in a new head coach in Phil Martelli, Jr. so it is going to take time for this program to come together. They rolled over Wagner in the opener as they scored 103 points which solidifies what they want to do but were held to 77 and 78 points in the last two games and this one is their first true road game of the season. Here, we play on home teams after three straight covers as a favorite of seven points or more going up against an opponent off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1998. 10* (808) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. The Cowboys were in need of some help on Sunday with the five teams ahead of them in the playoff race that they can conceivably catch and those teams went 2-3 and a win here puts them 2.5 games out of the final spot in the NFC but they have to pass four teams, Vikings, Panthers, Lions, 49ers. Dallas is off its bye week after playing on a Monday which could be considered an edge but the Raiders are on a mini bye as their last game was Week 10 Thursday but an extra two days is still important this time of year. This game is obviously for Marshawn Kneeland and while putting tragedy and sports together seems outrageous, these players are brothers and they will be all out for this one. Quarterbacks matter and in this case, Dallas has the clear edge based on situation as since 2020, Dak Prescott is 13-1 straight up as a favorite in the primetime spotlight while Geno Smith is 2-13 straight up as an underdog under the lights. A win does not necessarily mean a cover here but it is a good number to do so and the hook tell us the Cowboys are the side as the Raiders will be popular for those that want that extra half-point. Here, we play against underdogs after a loss by six or less points going up against an opponent after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 29-2 (93.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +10.2 ppg. 10* (477) Dallas Cowboys