Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-27-24 | Kentucky v. Arkansas OVER 164 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kentucky and Arkansas at 6 pm et on Saturday. Arkansas has fallen into a serious shooting slump, connecting on 24 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games entering Saturday's matchup with Kentucky. The good news is, the Wildcats are an NBA team disguised in college basketball uniforms and can drag any opponent into a track meet on any given day. Kentucky has allowed 33, 31, 31 and 29 made field goals over its last four games. The problem for the Razorbacks here isn't likely whether they can score on the Wildcats but whether they can stop them. Kentucky will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after dropping a 79-62 decision at South Carolina earlier this week. Note that the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals in 14 of 18 games this season. It's worth noting that the Hogs had knocked down at least 26 field goals in 10 of their first 13 games before falling into their recent funk. The 'over' is 22-11 in Kentucky's last 33 games following an 'under' result, as is the case here. The Wildcats have also posted a perfect 9-0 'over' mark in their last nine games following a road loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following consecutive defeats in-conference. The 'over' is also 6-1 in their last seven contests following a loss by 15 points or more including 2-0 the last two times they've come off a 20+ point setback. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-27-24 | Kansas State v. Houston UNDER 128.5 | Top | 52-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected against Iowa State on Wednesday. It had little to do with the pace of that contest, however, as the Wildcats hoisted up only 49 field goal attempts while the Cyclones countered with 51. Both teams knocked down an identical 22 field goals. That's about par for the course when it comes to Kansas State. It has limited six of its last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While Houston boasts its share of offensive talent, the Cougars are still at team that hangs their hat on their defense. Houston checks in having held 18 of 19 opponents to 22 made field goals or fewer. In fact, the Cougars are just one game removed from limiting Central Florida to a ridiculous seven made field goals. Also note that Houston ranks 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Cougars will take what the opposition gives them on offense but in this case that's not likely to be much against a Wildcats squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following Wednesday's loss. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 59-49 with Kansas State coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-15 in the Cougars last 38 games following an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-26-24 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 213 | 106-107 | Push | 0 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams have played some old school basketball lately with the Magic having scored fewer than 90 points in four of their last eight games (they also held three opponents to less than 100) and the Grizzlies failing to eclipse the century mark in two of their last six contests (they gave up only 96 points last time out). Orlando has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 78 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last three games. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they connected on 40 or more field goals. The Grizzlies have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six contests. Like the Magic, they've also been playing at a slow pace, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Given just how many key contributors the Grizzlies are missing right now, slow-playing it has been their best strategy and they've limited eight of their last 12 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 17-8 in the Magic's last 25 games following a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' go 4-1 in their last five contests following consecutive upset victories, which is also the situation they're in on Friday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 234.5 | 127-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Raptors have seen each of their last five games stay 'under' the total and I'm banking on that trend continuing for at least one more contest as they host the red hot Clippers on Friday. The Clippers will take the floor for the first time since Tuesday's 127-116 win over the Lakers. Note that the 'under' is 22-7 in their last 29 games played on at least two days' rest. Los Angeles enters this game on a scoring tear having produced 125 points or more in three straight games. That's happened only once previously this season and on that occasion its next game cruised 'under' the total, reaching just 214 points in Minnesota. The 'under' is 8-5 in the Clips last 13 games after scoring 125+ points in three straight contests. For their part, the Raptors have seen the 'under' go 14-6 in their last 20 contests following three straight ATS losses. The 'under' is also 14-11 in their last 25 games after an upset loss at home, as is the case here. While the 'over' did cash in the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season (in January), we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since 2016-17. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-25-24 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 224 | Top | 143-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of relatively low-scoring contests. Boston enters riding a five-game 'under' streak while Miami has seen each of its last seven contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Heat continue to limit opposing offenses although part of that has been as a result of the opposition playing with a considerable lead and controlling the tempo. Boston has been fairly matchup-proof in that regard. The Celtics prefer to push the pace, having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 17 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, Boston's opponents have certainly gotten their fair share of scoring opportunities as the C's have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 15 games. Only twice over the last three seasons has Boston produced five straight 'under' results and on both previous occasions, the 'over' cashed in the next game. Also note that the 'over' is 39-34 in the Celtics last 73 games following a road win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-32 in the Heat's last 72 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Miami's last four games after four straight losses. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-25-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 152 | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mount St. Mary's and Quinnipiac at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday. Mount St. Mary's ran into a red hot Niagara squad on Sunday, falling by a score of 82-71. Note that the Mountaineers have seen the 'under' go 10-2 in their last 12 games following an upset loss. Mount St. Mary's has allowed just one of its 18 opponents to knock down more than 30 field goals this season. While that's a reasonably high number of field goals to use as a benchmark, it works in the context of this game with the total set in the low-150's at the time of writing. Quinnipiac has reeled off five straight victories going 4-0-1 ATS over that stretch. It actually doesn't run all that efficient of an offense but thrives on pushing the pace, something I'm not sure it will be able to do as much as it would like on Thursday (Mount St. Mary's has held opponents to just 57 field goal attempts per game on the road this season). Much of the Bobcats success has come as a result of a rather soft schedule, noting they've faced only the 358th most difficult schedule (out of 362 Division-I teams) in the country according to KenPom. The 'under' is 9-4 in Quinnipiac's last 13 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the Bobcats last eight contests when coming off a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-24-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 134.5 | 67-78 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Iowa State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Wednesday. Kansas State ranks 261st in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, while also checking in sporting the 21st best defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency). The Wildcats have held an incredible five of their last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. The Cyclones are a good but certainly not great offensive team. They did knock down 29-of-62 field goal attempts in an upset win at TCU last time out but that represented a high-water mark over their last five contests. They've connected on 27 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. On the flip side, Iowa State has been even better than Kansas State defensively, ranking an impressive third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. It has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the opposition has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down against the Cylones, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in six of the last eight games against them. Kansas State doesn't figure to push all that hard in that department, attempting 54 or fewer field goals in four straight and six of its last seven games heading in. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in the Wildcats last 12 games following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is an identical 8-4 in Iowa State's last 12 contests following consecutive 'over' results and 12-7 in its last 19 games following an upset victory. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 229.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Lebron James is expected to miss Tuesday's game for the Lakers as they try to secure a third straight win over the rival Clippers this season. While the Lakers have found recent success it hasn't been on the strength of their defensive play. They've allowed eight straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes connecting on at least 42 field goals. The Clippers figure to push them here, noting Los Angeles has knocked down 47 or more field goals in four of its last six contests. On the flip side, despite generally limiting the tempo of their opposition, the Clippers have allowed four of their last five opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. This will undoubtedly be a game the Clips have circled on their calendar not only due to the fact that they've dropped both previous meetings this season but also after they felt they let the Lakers off the hook in the most recent matchup on January 7th. In that contest, the Clips hoisted up 91 field goal attempts but connected on only 36 of them. Incredibly, that's one of only two times they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in their last 25 contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-22-24 | Bulls v. Suns OVER 229 | 113-115 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Suns have delivered three straight 'under' results following last night's 117-110 win over the Pacers. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however, as they host the Bulls. Chicago is playing as well offensively as it has all season, knocking down 46 or more field goals in four of its last five games. Also note that Chicago has been pushing the pace a little more than we're accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in five of its last seven contests. While it has also been playing well defensively it will face a tough test on Monday as Phoenix has connected on 46 or more field goals in five of its last seven contests and has made good on 49, 47 and 46 field goals in the last three meetings in this series here in the desert. Defensively, the Suns have been good but not great lately, yielding 40+ made field goals to the opposition in seven straight and 13 of their last 15 contests. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 49-24 in the Bulls last 73 games against Western Conference opponents. The 'over' is also 20-16 in their last 36 contests after giving up 100 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 11-7 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result this season and 37-26 in their last 63 contests at home with the total set between 220 and 229.5, which is the situation at the time of writing. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-21-24 | Heat v. Magic UNDER 215.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. If the Magic are going to shake out of their extended funk it's likely going to have to come on the strength of their defense. They've clearly lost their mojo offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time they connected on more than 44 field goals. The good news is, Orlando continues to play tough defense having held seven straight opponents to 43 or fewer field goals. Miami is in a similar situation as it has connected on 41 or fewer field goals in an incredible 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Also in a similar vein to the Magic, the Heat have held four of their last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 21-11 in Orlando's last 32 games following a double-digit home loss, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 in the Magic's last 15 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has seen the 'under' go 6-2 in its last eight games following an upset loss against a divisional opponent. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not buying the high posted total in this matchup as the Suns and Pelicans both come in rested in advance of Friday's matchup in New Orleans. Note that the Suns have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in each of their last 10 games. On the flip side, they've limited 14 of their last 15 opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. Of course, that's a reasonably high number of field goals to knock down in a game but not when we're dealing with a total approaching 240 points. The Pelicans have proven to be elite defensively this season. They enter Friday's contest having held an incredible 12 of their last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. That's no fluke. You would have to go back six games to find the last time a New Orleans opponent managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. That's the longest streak since 2019-20. That previous 'over' streak ended at five games as the next meeting totalled just 197 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday. Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers OVER 227.5 | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup features two of the league's better defensive teams to be sure but it hasn't necessarily looked like that lately. Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While the 76ers have had their issues offensively over the last couple of weeks, we have seen them start to push the pace a little, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in six of their last 10 games. Denver has had no such issues offensively, connecting on 48, 48, 47, 37, 50 and 46 field goals over its last six contests. The scoring opportunities should be there on Tuesday, noting that Philadelphia, while generally stout defensively, has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 88 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Nuggets last 63 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 53-39 in Philadelphia's last 92 contests as a favorite. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 113-125 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. Few are paying nearly enough attention but the Pelicans continue to dominate defensively having held an incredible nine straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 13 consecutive foes to 41 or less. Yes, the Pelicans have gone off offensively in their last two games, knocking down 50 and 54 field goals in wins over the Kings and Warriors but they'll face a more difficult challenge against the defending champion Nuggets in Denver on Friday. The Nuggets will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after getting blasted by the Jazz in Utah two nights ago. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that contest. Denver has still held 10 of its last 11 opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. At home, the Nuggets have limited the opposition to an average of 41-of-88 shooting. Note that the 'under' is 40-25 in the Pelicans last 65 games off a double-digit victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in the Nuggets last 22 contests following an upset loss by double-digits. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 139.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 237 | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers may have scored 132 points in Tuesday's controversial win over the Raptors but they actually got off just 81 field goal attempts in that contest, continuing a recent trend. Los Angeles has hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The 44 field goals they knocked down on Tuesday marked a high point over their last six contests. The Suns have had two full days to digest an ugly defensive showing in a 138-111 loss to the Clippers on Monday. They've still limited four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Given the pieces they have in place you would think that Phoenix would be lighting up the scoreboard this season but that simply hasn't been the case. They enter this game having connected on 44 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. On the road this season they're averaging only 40 made field goals per game while the Lakers are giving up an average of just 41 at home. Note that the 'under' is 31-26 in Phoenix's last 57 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 14-7 in its last 21 contests after losing its previous game by 15 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-24 in the Lakers last 69 home games with a total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 33-26 in their last 59 contests after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-132 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Canisius v. Rider OVER 147 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. While a track meet between two struggling MAAC squads is probably the last thing on the mind of most bettors on a busy Sunday of sports action, I think we have an excellent spot to play the 'over' in this matchup. The Golden Griffins opposition has been stuffing the boxscore lately, knocking down 33, 31, 28 and 30 field goals in their last four games and Rider figures to take full advantage. The Broncs have lost three games in a row and are desperate for their first victory in conference play following another loss - by an 88-84 score - on the road against Quinnipiac on Friday. Like Canisius, Rider has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 28, 29, 27, 30 and 30 made field goals in its last five contests. Both teams are capable offensively. Rider knocked down 33 field goals in Friday's defeat while Canisius had an off shooting night but still got off a whopping 68 field goal attempts. The last time these two teams met last February they combined to score 159 points. Note that the 'over' is 17-6 in Rider's last 23 home games following three straight losses. The 'over' is also a long-term 116-84 with Canisius playing in a road underdog role. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-05-24 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 229.5 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Heat are coming off a lopsided win in upset fashion over the Lakers two nights ago. In that contest, they scored 100 or more points for the 12th straight game, extending their season long streak. Note that their previous longest such streak lasted just nine games. Of course, in today's NBA perhaps that's not such an accomplishment but for a team like the Heat, which I consider to be rather limited offensively, not to mention one that doesn't play at an incredibly fast pace, it's worth noting. The Suns do figure to test the Heat offense here, noting that Phoenix has held five straight and 13 of its last 15 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Also of note, the Suns have limited five of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, most expected the Suns to be one of the league's most explosive offensive teams with the additions of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Both have dealt with injuries, however, and have been in and out of the lineup. As a result, the Suns have been lukewarm offensively. They've knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in back-to-back and 16 of their last 20 games overall. In fact, Phoenix has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making good on them, hoisting up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 7-3 in the Heat's last 10 games following a road win and 9-5 in their last 14 contests after an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Suns last 12 games after giving up 130 or more points in their previous contest, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 42-34 in Phoenix's last 76 games following a loss. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting already this season between these two teams and we're inexplicably working with the highest total of the bunch. It is worth noting the 'over' has cashed in all three previous matchups this season. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were already one of the slowest paced teams in the league this season but they've taken it to another level lately, hoisting up an unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 76 field goal attempts or fewer in each of their last four games. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Pelicans have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. On the flip side they've held the opposition to just 35, 39, 36, 39 and 35 made field goals over their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 45-28 with the Pelicans checking in as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 35-21 in the Timberwolves last 56 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Washington State v. Colorado OVER 144.5 | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado at 2 pm et on Sunday. As long as Washington State keeps playing at the pace it has, the points will come. The Cougars have hoisted up 64 or more field goals attempts in five of their last nine games and figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against Colorado on Sunday as well. The Buffaloes allowed Washington to get off 65 field goal attempts in Friday's narrow victory - the Huskies simply had an off shooting night. In that vein, the Buffaloes didn't shoot particularly well either but should rebound here. Washington State has gotten progressively worse defensively, most recently allowing Utah to connect on 29-of-61 field goal opportunities in Friday's 80-58 loss. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Hornets v. Suns UNDER 234.5 | 119-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. It sounds like Bradley Beal will take the floor for the Suns on Friday and that has given this total a bump. It generally takes two teams to topple a total this high, however, and this is a miserable spot for the road-weary Hornets. Charlotte got drummed again last night, allowing 130+ points in a game where the Lakers simply couldn't miss (they shot 52-of-97 from the field). Note that the Hornets have now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Meanwhile, Phoenix has allowed 44 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 of its last 17 contests. On the flip side, the Suns went off two nights ago in Houston, connecting on 47-of-82 field goal attempts. While I'm not saying that performance is necessarily a one-off, I also don't think it's sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 44-32 in the Suns last 76 home games with a total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 47-41 in Phoenix's last 88 home games as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Washington v. Colorado OVER 155 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back to January of 2021 to find the last time these two teams eclipsed the total we're working with on Friday night. I think that changes here. Washington doesn't figure to pose much of a defensive threat against the high-flying Buffaloes. The Huskies have allowed opponents to hoist up an average of 64 field goal attempts per game this season with that number rising to 67 on the road. There is reason to believe Washington can keep pace to a certain extent. The Huskies didn't turn in their best performance last time out against Eastern Washington but still scored 73 points on just 23 made field goals. They're averaging 30 made field goals per contest this season. Colorado plays at a faster tempo at home, where it has yielded an average of 61 field goal attempts per game to the opposition this season. Both teams rank inside the top-90 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat saw their most recent game on Christmas Night sneak 'over' the total as they outlasted the 76ers on their home floor. Note that Miami has still held nine of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Heat connected on more than 41 field goals. The 'under' is 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 home games when playing on two of more days' rest, as is the case here. They covered but lost 120-114 in Denver on Christmas. Golden State has held seven of its last eight opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals and its last two foes to just 38 and 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 129-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets were involved in a relatively high-scoring game last night but what else would you expect against the Pacers. Houston ended up hoisting up an uncharacteristic 97 field goal attempts in that game, largely due to the fact it was playing from behind much of the way. I expect a different game script to unfold against the struggling Suns on Wednesday. While Phoenix has had a tough time winning games it has continued to limit its opponents' opportunities, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last six and nine of its last 14 games. On the flip side, the Suns have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 14 of their last 15 contests. Houston limited Indiana to only 82 field goal attempts last night but the Pacers quite simply shot the lights out, as it often does. The Rockets have been incredibly stingy at home this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 36-of-86 shooting from the field. Houston has seen the 'under' cash in 17 of its last 23 games as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-26-23 | Hornets v. Clippers UNDER 228.5 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers are coming off back-to-back dreadful defensive efforts against the Thunder and Celtics but this looks like an ideal 'get right' matchup against the Hornets on Tuesday. Note that Charlotte has made good on fewer than 40 field goals in three of its last four games. The last time these two teams squared off was just over a year ago and on that night, the Clips held the Hornets to 37-of-92 from the field. Los Angeles will look to get going again offensively against a Charlotte squad that has at least been able to slow its opponents' pace. The Hornets have allowed 88 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 13 games. With the Clips averaging only 87 FG attempts per contest at home this season, I'm not convinced the pace will get this one to the posted total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-25-23 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat's four-game 'over' streak came to an end last time out against Atlanta while Philadelphia enters Monday's contest riding a two-game 'over' streak. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most in this Christmas Night matchup. Note that the 76ers remain an elite defensive team. They've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals - that's an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. Miami can also hold its own defensively having allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in four straight and eight of its last nine games. Add in the fact that the Heat have been scuffing their heels offensively, knocking down just 41, 40 and 40 field goals over their last three contests but check into this one in a near pk'em range and you can understand why I'm favoring the 'under' in Miami on Monday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-22-23 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 244.5 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Friday. On paper, this sets up as a track meet as both teams are brimming with offensive talent. However, a closer look leads me to believe we're in for a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Note that Phoenix generally plays at a fairly methodical pace (by today's NBA standards). Last time out, the Suns did hoist up 94 field goal attempts as they were trying to rally against the Blazers in an eventual defeat. Prior to that, Phoenix had gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in eight straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to play well defensively despite having little to show for it in the win column. Phoenix has held seven of its last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Kings obviously pose a stiff challenge but the Suns did hold them to 114 points on 42-of-92 shooting in their most recent meeting on December 8th. Sacramento clearly got caught looking past an undermanned Celtics team that was playing the second of back-to-backs two nights ago, allowing Boston to knock down a whopping 51 field goals in the blowout loss. Prior to that, the Kings had held six straight foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. The fact that Sacramento took the first matchup between these teams this season is notable as the 'under' is 26-14 in the Suns last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-19-23 | Spurs v. Bucks OVER 249.5 | 119-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs enter this game riding a three-game 'over' streak while the 'over' has cashed in each of the Bucks last four contests. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. San Antonio had an off shooting night at home against New Orleans on Sunday, connecting on just 40-of-94 field goal attempts. It still scored 110 points. While facing the Bucks may appear to be a difficult challenge, Milwaukee hasn't exactly been an elite defensive team - far from it, in fact. The Bucks check in having allowed nine straight and 13 of their last 14 opponents to knock down at least 43 field goals. Of course, that's mattered little as the Bucks offense is on a torrid pace having connected on 44 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games. The Spurs have risen up defensively on occasion this season but are giving up an average of 44 made field goals per game on the road, despite the opposition attempting an average of only 88. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 210-156 with the Spurs coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here. The Bucks have seen the 'over' go 10-1 in their last 11 December home games with those contests totalling an average of 250.3 points. Milwaukee will continue its homestand with a game against the Magic on Thursday so there's no reason to think it will keep anything in reserve here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-18-23 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230 | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive high-scoring games against the Heat in Miami but I look for a different story to unfold as they continue their road trip in Philadelphia on Monday. Note that Chicago still held Miami to just 83 field goal attempts last time out. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out. The Bulls have limited five straight opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The 76ers are in terrific defensive form right now having held four straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they are currently red hot offensively, it's worth noting that Chicago had their number last season, limiting them to 40 or fewer made field goals in all four matchups. The 'under' is 13-3 in the 76ers last 16 games when coming off four straight victories by 10 points or more, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-16-23 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 217 | Top | 116-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have incredibly held 24 of their 26 opponents to 90 field goal attempts or less this season. That's quite an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The first game of this two-game set in Miami was actually high-scoring, resulting in 240 total points. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday. The Bulls have been performing well offensively in Zach LaVine's absence. They knocked down 45 field goals in Thursday's win over the Heat. With that being said, they're just one game removed from connecting on only 36 field goals in Denver. The Heat have been held to exactly 37 made field goals in three of their last four contests. They're unlikely to push the pace against the Bulls, noting they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 19 of their last 20 games. Thursday's game snapped a streak of five straight contests in which Miami had held the opposition to 87 FG attempts or fewer. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 in the Bulls last 39 road games following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-15-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 212 | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of the Rockets 117-104 win at home two nights ago. Houston continues to get it done, riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak, despite a rather limited offense that has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in five straight contests. Defensively, Houston has been on point, limiting 10 of its last 12 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals with its last two foes knocking down only 31 and 35 field goals. Jaren Jackson picked up the offensive slack in Desmond Bane's absence in Houston, pouring in 44 points. It remains to be seen whether Bane will return on Friday but if he does, we can anticipate Johnson taking a bit of a backseat offensively so that essentially results in status-quo in terms of point production. The Grizzlies have gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. The only time they topped that mark they hoisted up 91 FG attempts in a 116-point performance against the lowly Pistons. Defensively, Memphis has held Houston to 40 and 39 made field goals in two previous meetings this season and has limited the opposition to just 82 FG attempts per game here at home. Note that the 'under' is 18-7 in Memphis' last 25 games following consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. I'll admit my first reaction was to grab the points with the Timberwolves in this game as they look to bounce back following Monday's lopsided defeat in New Orleans. After taking a deeper look, I think the better play is on the 'under' on Thursday night in Dallas. Minnesota has really clamped down defensively in recent games, holding six of its last seven opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In three meetings with the Mavericks last season, the T'Wolves held them to just 84, 75 and 76 field goal attempts. Dallas is no better-suited to take advantage of Minnesota here with a number of key contributors either sidelined or banged-up. I do like the fact that both teams come in rested with the T'Wolves idle since Monday and the Mavs having last played on Tuesday here at home against the Lakers. While Minnesota has been rolling, it hasn't necessarily been blowing the doors off the opposition, knocking down 44 or fewer field goals in 15 consecutive games. While the 'over' has gone 8-3 in its 11 road games this season, those contests have averaged just 226.6 total points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-05-23 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I just don't see the sort of track meet developing that most are expecting as the Suns and Lakers do battle in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Tuesday. The Lakers have already taken the first two meetings between these teams this season and if the Suns want to change the outcome here, they'll likely have to win ugly, noting they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of their last six games. The good news is, the Lakers don't figure to really push the pace. They've hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 18 straight games. They've managed to connect on more than 40 field goals just once in their last four contests and that came against the hapless Pistons. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 123-93 in Lakers home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-23 with the Suns seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-14-23 | Mavs v. Pelicans UNDER 240 | 110-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Any time we get what I consider to be a quality team playing at home on a long losing streak, I'm going to take a long look at the 'under'. That's the case on Tuesday as the Pelicans look to snap their five-game SU and ATS losing skid and earn some quick revenge after dropping a 136-124 decision at home against these same Mavericks on Sunday. The Pelicans got baited into a track meet in that game, ultimately hoisting up 92 field goal attempts in the double-digit loss. When New Orleans was enjoying success during a 4-1 start to the campaign, it was playing at a far more methodical pace, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in three of its first five contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times New Orleans has come off six or seven losses in its last eight games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 213.5 points in that situation. While the Mavs are coming off consecutive wins, they can't be pleased with their defensive play having allowed 127, 126 and 124 points over their last three contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 in their last 16 games following a road victory by 10 points or more. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-14-23 | Duke v. Michigan State OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Michigan State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While I do like Duke to bounce back from Friday's home loss against Arizona, I don't think the oddsmakers have its backers any favors by installing them as two-possession favorites against Michigan State at the United Center on Tuesday. Michigan State enters with perhaps just as big of a chip on its shoulder after it dropped a stunning home-opening loss to James Madison (before bouncing back with a blowout victory over Southern Indiana). Regardless, I expect both teams to go flat out in an effort to re-establish themselves in the national rankings (the Blue Devils fell from second to ninth while the Spartans tumbled from fourth all the way to 18th). Note that Michigan State has allowed each of its first two opponents to get out and run with both hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Duke won't shy away from pushing the pace here as it has attempted 59 and 65 field goals through two contests. You only have to go back to the 2022 NCAA Tournament to find the last time these storied programs met and the result was an 85-76 Duke victory. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-10-23 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The first matchup between these two teams this season was low-scoring as the Lakers defeated the Suns 100-95 in Los Angeles. I expect a different story to unfold in Friday's rematch in the desert. As usual, the Lakers have had no interest in slowing down opposing teams, allowing six of eight opponents to hoist up more than 90 field goal attempts this season. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball right now with Los Angeles having allowed 47, 46, 41 and 51 made field goals over its last four contests. It's been a similar story for the Suns. They've allowed five of six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts since facing the Lakers on October 26th. Each of their last five opponents have knocked down at least 42 field goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-10-23 | Arizona v. Duke OVER 153.5 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. While the betting majority will likely be on this play with us on Friday, that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I simply feel this game will resemble a pro-style contest with the Wildcats and Blue Devils vying to remain perfect on the young campaign. Duke probably doesn't want to get involved in a track meet with Arizona but I'm not sure it will have a choice in the matter, even at home. The Wildcats will run, run and run some more and it's just too early in the season for the Blue Devils to truly have their wits about them defensively. On the flip side, Duke is favored for a reason in this contest and it will undoubtedly hold its own offensively against what projects to be an average Arizona defense (its first opponent of the season Morgan State turned the basketball over 25 times and made good on only 22 field goals yet still put up 59 points). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-09-23 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 233 | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. The oddsmakers are projecting a track meet between these two teams in Mexico City on Thursday but I don't see it unfolding that way. The Magic have gotten off to a 4-3 start to the campaign thanks to a stout defense that has held all seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That has come at the expense of their offense at times as they've played a fairly methodical style (by today's NBA standards), making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of seven contests. Atlanta plays no such tough defense but I do think we see it shy away from an up-and-down affair here after falling short in precisely that type of contest last time out in Oklahoma City. Following a red hot five-game shooting stretch, Atlanta knocked down just 38-of-102 field goal attempts against the Thunder. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 in the Magic's last 10 road games following a home loss and 50-32 in their last 82 contests following an ATS defeat. These NBA games played in Mexico City have had a tendency to be lower-scoring with last year's matchup between the Heat and Spurs producing 212 total points. Prior to that the Spurs and Suns combined to score 218 points in 2019. The Magic played a pair of games here in 2018 with those contests reaching 188 and 185 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-07-23 | Northern Iowa v. North Texas UNDER 129.5 | 77-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Iowa and North Texas at 8 pm et on Tuesday. No team played slower than North Texas last season as it ranked 363rd out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo but that was by design as it also finished 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency, riding that hard-nosed defensive style to a NIT championship. While Ross Hodge is the new head coach, nothing is likely to change as Hodge has been running the Mean Green Eagles defense for a number of years. All indications are that his players have bought in during practices and I don't anticipate North Texas missing a beat defensively out of the gate this season. Northern Iowa returns its top five scorers from last season under long-time head coach Ben Jacobson. The Panthers have been a middling bunch in terms of pace under Jacobson but there's been a renewed focus on playing good defensive basketball entering the 23-24 campaign. “We were awful last year defensively,” Jacobson said in late October. “We’ve spent a lot of time working (on that). So we have got a defensive team we can count on.” I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Nuggets have reeled off five straight 'under' results to open the season but I think we have a catalyst for change in play as they come off their first defeat of the campaign in Minnesota two nights ago. Denver had an off night shooting the basketball against the T'Wolves, knocking down just 38-of-96 field goal attempts. Prior to that, the Nuggets had made good on more than 40 field goals in all four games, topping out at a whopping 53 made field goals in a win in Oklahoma City. On the flip side, Denver has been terrific defensively but does figure to get tested here. Dallas has knocked down 47, 44 and 42 field goals in its first three games before being held to just 37 in a slow-paced game against the Bulls. Keep in mind, the Mavericks still scored 114 points in that most recent contest and a slower-paced affair was to be expected against Chicago. Defensively, the Mavs warts have yet to be exposed thanks to their strong offensive production. They've actually allowed all four opponents to make good on 42 or more field goals this season and the Nuggets ripped them for a blistering 88-of-162 (54.3%) shooting in two meetings in Denver last season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | 111-130 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks are coming off a high-scoring game against the Heat on Monday. I expect a different story to unfold as they head to Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors have lost three games in a row but there issues have been at the offensive end of the floor. They've actually seen the 'under' go 3-1 in their four games this season and they've held the opposition to 94, 104, 114 and 99 points. The Bucks have gotten off 82, 86 and 87 field goal attempts through three games so they're not exactly playing at a frenetic pace. They shot the lights out against the Heat on Monday but will be hard-pressed to do so on the road against the Raptors here. Toronto has allowed just one of four opponents to knock down more than 38 field goals this season. Note that the 'under' is 18-8 in the Bucks last 26 road games when coming off an ATS victory. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-31-23 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 226.5 | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The betting market continues to have a tough time figuring out the Suns as they continue on without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Kevin Durant got plenty of help from his supporting cast in Phoenix's 126-104 rout of Utah on Saturday. The Suns draw another mouth-watering matchup on Tuesday as they host the Spurs, who just got dominated by a 123-83 score against the Clippers in Los Angeles on Sunday. There are going to be plenty of growing pains for this San Antonio squad. The Spurs have employed a matador-like defense through three games, allowing 47, 52 and 47 made field goals (to their credit the middle game was aided by overtime). I do think we see a bounce-back of sorts from the Spurs offense on Tuesday after they connected on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts on Sunday. Phoenix has held all three of its opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season yet has still given up 100 or more points in every contest. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 136-102 with the Spurs playing on the road after scoring 90 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 214.5 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' cashed in all five games in last April's playoff series between these two teams. The Knicks also enter this contest off an incredibly low-scoring game against New Orleans on Saturday. With that being said, the contrarian in me believes we're in for a higher-scoring game than expected on Tuesday. Cleveland has been playing at a fast pace, hoisting up 94, 92 and 99 field goal attempts through three games. While Darius Garland remains sidelined, there's a chance Donovan Mitchell could return on Tuesday after sitting out the second of back-to-backs on Saturday. The Knicks have also played at a reasonably quick tempo, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in all three games. Note that the 'over' is 30-18 in the Knicks last 48 games as a favorite including 1-0 this season. The 'over' also cashed in both regular season meetings between these two teams in 22-23. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams saw their respective season openers stay 'under' the total but I expect a different story to unfold as the Suns and Lakers match up in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Suns actually allowed Golden State to get off a whopping 101 field goal attempts on Tuesday but the Warriors couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 36 of those attempts in a four-point loss. Meanwhile, Phoenix played with pace (95 field goal attempts) and shot reasonably well (42 made field goals), even with key offseason acquisition Bradley Beal sidelined (he's questionable to play on Thursday as well). The Lakers limited Denver to just 91 FG attempts on Tuesday but the Nuggets had little trouble against L.A.'s sieve-like defense, connecting on 48 of those shot attempts. I did come away impressed with the Lakers ability to at least match the Nuggets tempo (91 FG attempts). They simply had an off night shooting - something I expect them to rectify in their home-opener on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Suns coming off a victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 233.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-24-23 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 232 | 108-104 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. With that being said, through the first four games of the preseason, Suns opponents have been 'filling it up'. In games against the Pistons, Nuggets and Trail Blazers (twice), Phoenix yielded 46, 43, 42 and 41 made field goals in regulation time. That was despite only one of those opponents reaching 90 or more field goal attempts. The Warriors do figure to push the pace on the Suns in their home opener on Tuesday. Save for a game against the Kings in which Steph Curry and Chris Paul sat out, they've looked sharp in the preseason, knocking down 45+ field goals in three of four contests. Phoenix has given its new-look, star-studded starting five enough run in the preseason to lead me to believe we won't see a great deal of rust on Tuesday. In last year's four meetings in this series, the Suns made good on 47, 44, 41 and 46 field goals. Of note, they still put up 125 points in the game where they 'only' knocked down 41 shots. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. This series has taken a low-scoring tone for the most part with three of the first four games staying 'under' the total. As I've noted in my analysis of the last two contests, Miami hasn't been able to break through the offensive ceiling against Denver this season, making good on 39, 39, 39, 38, 34 and 35 field goals in six matchups. On the flip side, the Heat have held an incredible 20 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. In this series, Miami has limited Denver to 40, 39, 41 and 39 made field goals. There are still plenty of bettors chasing the 'over' in this series and as a result the oddsmakers can only set this number so low. It's not low enough in my opinion, noting that the 'under' is 16-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season and 14-6 with the Nuggets following five consecutive games in which they shot 47% or better from the field, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We'll stick with the program on Friday and back the 'under' as the Nuggets carry their 2-1 series lead into Game 4 of The Finals in Miami. The Heat have yet to show they can break through their offensive ceiling against Denver this season, knocking down 39, 39, 39, 38 and 34 field goals in five meetings. On the flip side, however, Miami has limited an incredible 19 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nuggets made good on more than 41 field goals. Here, we'll note again that Denver has seen the 'under' go 21-9 after shooting 50% or better from the field in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 15-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. While the Heat did outlast the Nuggets 111-108 in Game 2 of this series, they still failed to break through the offensive ceiling, connecting on only 38 field goals in another relatively slow-paced affair. Note that Miami has now knocked down 39, 39, 39 and 38 field goals in four meetings with the Nuggets this season. On the flip side, the Heat have now held an incredible 18 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've limited six straight and 10 of their last 11 foes to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat exploded for 17 made three-pointers in Game 2 but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Nuggets have held opponents to an average of 12 made threes per contest on the road this season. The 'under' is 20-9 with Denver coming off consecutive games in which it shot 50% or better from the field, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a long-term 129-96 with the Heat playing at home on two or more days' rest, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' on Saturday and we'll come right back with the same play in Game 7 of this series on Monday. The pace has slowed considerably in this series over the last few games and there's little reason to expect anything different here. Note that Miami has now held 15 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Boston has been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight contests. The 'under' is now a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics facing elimination over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 199.1 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a major shift in this series, not only with the Celtics winning the last two games, but from a pace perspective. Game 4 saw the Celtics get off 84 field goal attempts while Miami managed to hoist up only 78. In Game 5, Miami got off only 79 field goal attempts with Boston attempting 79. Of course, the Celtics have shot a blistering 51.2% and 50.6% over the last two contests to get back in the series. I do expect a response from the Heat defensively here after Boston shot the lights out from beyond the arc in Game 5. On the flip side, we'll note that the 'under' is now a perfect 8-0 with the Celtics facing elimination in the playoffs over the last two seasons, allowing only 93.1 points per game in the process. That situation has produced an average total of just 198.1 points. Boston has now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games while Miami has held the opposition to 43 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 consecutive contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the Heat haven't been involved in three consecutive 'over' results since their first round series against the up-tempo Bucks. The pace wasn't necessarily there for an 'over' result in either of the first two games in this series. Game 1 saw the Heat and Celtics get off 85 and 81 field goal attempts, respectively. In Game 2, the Heat picked up the pace thanks to trailing by double-digits for stretches, hoisting up 92 field goal attempts. The Celtics were once again stymied, getting off only 79 FG attempts. The Heat have now held five straight opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Game 2 sticks out as an anomaly for the Celtics defensively as they've limited seven of their last nine foes to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The last time they allowed 90 or more FG attempts in a game they followed it up by allowing only 79 in their next contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 25-14 with the Celtics installed as a road favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The oddsmakers did a good job of setting totals in the Lakers previous series against the Warriors with five of the six games finishing within 4.5 points of the closing total. We saw the totals edge lower as that series went on and here in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals we're seeing a significantly lower total than we saw in Game 1 against the Warriors. With all of that being said, I don't believe the shift is warranted. Last round I talked on numerous occasions about how the Lakers had a solid floor in terms of scoring production against the Warriors but not all that high of a ceiling. I believe we're dealing with a different set of circumstances here against the Nuggets, noting that Los Angeles has knocked down 40 or more field goals in six straight meetings in this series but has also shown the ability to break out, making good on 46 or more field goals in three of those six contests. On the flip side, Denver has knocked down more than 40 field goals in six of the last seven matchups in this series, making good on 46 or more in four of those contests. The Nuggets are in excellent form off a series against Phoenix in which they connected on 42 or more field goals in five of six games. The Lakers continue to afford their opponents a ton of scoring opportunities having allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. While Los Angeles' offense did get bogged down a bit as the series went on against Golden State, that will happen when you're playing every other day over a 10-day stretch. Note that the Lakers have played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here, on four previous occasions this season (not including their season-opener) and have knocked down 43, 42, 49 and 43 field goals in those four contests, producing an average point total of 124.3 points in that situation. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday. We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've now seen each of the last three games in this series go 'over' the total which sends Game 6 into 'uncharted territory', at least in recent years. I say that because we haven't seen four straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2016-17. The pace certainly wasn't there to dictate such a high-scoring result in Game 5 on Tuesday. Boston got off 83 field goal attempts in that game while Philadelphia countered with only 79. The 76ers quite simply shot the lights out but I expect the Celtics to make the necessary defensive adjustments here as they face potential elimination on Thursday night. Since allowing the Sixers to knock down 45 field goals in Game 1 of this series, Boston has held Philadelphia to just 31, 31, 42 and 40 made field goals over the last four contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have now limited each of their last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. In fact, nine of Philadelphia's last 10 opponents have gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts. The lone outlier came back in Game 2 of this series last week - the only game that happened to stay 'under' the total in this series to date. Here, we'll note that the 'under' remains a long-term 231-187 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The last two games in this series both flew 'over' the total as the Suns answered back after digging an 0-2 hole in Denver with consecutive wins on their home floor. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair in Game 4 (it reached 153 total points) as the Nuggets hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while the Suns got off only 81. Both teams simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate a repeat performance from either team as the series shifts back to Denver on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 44-21 with the Nuggets playing at home after allowing their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field in their previous contest, as is the case here. Denver has been stingy defensively at the best of times at home this season, yielding just 108.5 points per game but that number drops to 107.0 ppg when coming off an 'over' result with that spot producing an average total of 225.2 points (Nuggets home games have averaged 227.2 points overall this season). The fact that the 'over' has cashed in consecutive matchups between these two teams is worth noting as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this series in the same season since the 2020-21 campaign (and in that case the third game totalled just 227 points). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday. It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The first two games of this series both went 'over' the total (using the closing total for Game 2, noting the final score fell right around the number) but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Saturday. Yes, the Warriors continue to give up a ton of scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 15 straight games. However, there's been a method to their madness as they've held 18 of their last 19 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Lakers don't figure to be the ones to break through, at least not right now as they've knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven games and that's despite hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. Speaking of defense, Los Angeles turned in a poor effort at that end of the floor in Thursday's predictable Warriors bounce-back game. Still, the Lakers have held eight of their last nine and 12 of their last 15 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Warriors can still get hot at times, as we saw in Game 2 of this series, they've actually made good on 43 or fewer field goals in six of nine games in these playoffs. Also note that while the 'over' has cashed in the first two games of this series, Golden State hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak way back in early February. The Lakers have had just one 'over' streak last more than two games going all the way back to December 28th, but it was a long one with eight straight contests finding their way 'over' the total from March 26th to April 9th. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Game 1 of this series managed to creep 'over' the total thanks to a tremendous offensive performance from the Nuggets. That contest marked only the second time all season that Denver hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts in a game. I certainly feel that the Suns expected the Nuggets to employ a different, slower-paced offensive gameplan than they did in the series-opener so now it's on Phoenix to make the necessary adjustments defensively. Note that the Suns have only had eight previous what I would term 'outlier' poor defensive efforts - games in which they allowed 48 or more made field goals (as they did in Game 1 of this series). Following those contests, they've allowed 95, 128, 111, 121, 112, 106, 94 and 115 points in their next game, so a bit all over the place, but generally-speaking, they've allowed just north of 110 points per game in that situation, which is right around two points per game below their season average. All that is to say, I do expect Phoenix to bounce back from a defensive standpoint in Game 2. On the flip side, however, I think the Suns are still going to be in tough. Note that Denver has now held 16 of its last 19 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Only four of their last 19 opponents have gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts and one of those was aided by overtime. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive games involving the Nuggets for the first time since March 10th to 14th. Note that they've incredibly had just three 'over' streaks last three games or more this season with none of those lasting longer than four contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5 | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three of the first six games go 'under' the total in this series including Game 6 on Friday, which reached just 217 points. A considerable adjustment has been made to the total for game 7 - this is the lowest total we've seen all series. I still feel the number is too high. Note that the Warriors have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 of those contests. With that being said, Golden State will need to make adjustments here after De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk went off on Friday night - similar to the situation they were in following the series-opener (note that Game 2 totalled just 220 points with the Kings knocking down only 42 field goals). The Kings are a better defensive team than most give them credit for and they certainly showed that in Game 6 on Friday. Save for an awful defensive effort in a 123-116 loss here at home in Game 5, they've held up reasonably well at that end of the floor in this series, noting that they've limited the Warriors to 90 or fewer field goal attempts in four of six games. Sacramento has held 11 of its last 14 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met on April 6th in Phoenix they combined to score 234 points. Not entirely due to that result but likely in part, we're working with a higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. Note that while both the Suns and Nuggets offenses were on point in the opening round, I've been impressed by the two teams' defensive play as well. Phoenix enters this game having held five straight and 13 of their last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's despite allowing eight of those opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. I don't anticipate the Nuggets looking to speed things up here. They've hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last eight games. Denver has held eight straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Nuggets really clamped down defensively against the Timberwolves in the opening round, limiting them to 81 or fewer FG attempts in four of five games (the only game where they didn't went to overtime). While both teams shot exceptionally well in the first meeting of the season back on Christmas Day, since then we've seen Denver hold Phoenix to just 39, 37 and 41 made field goals in three matchups. I realize the Suns are a different team with Kevin Durant joining the fold but were they really all that different in the opening round against the Clippers? In that series they knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Noting that the 'under' is 14-6 with the Nuggets seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points in that situation, we'll look precisely that way in Game 1 on Saturday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 219 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Games 1 and 4 in this series but were fortunate to cash the latter thanks only to overtime. The other three games all stayed 'under' the total and I expect a similar outcome on Friday as well. The Lakers are thriving in this series largely due to their defensive play. They've held the Grizzlies to 44 or fewer made field goals in all five games despite Memphis hoisting up at least 89 field goal attempts in every contest. In fact, Los Angeles has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Since allowing the Lakers to knock down a whopping 49 field goals in Games 1, the Grizzlies have settled in defensively as well, holding Los Angeles to 41 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four contests. Only two of their last nine opponents have knocked down more than 44 field goals. While the Grizzlies average 113.7 points per game on the road this season, that number falls to 107.7 as a road underdog. The Lakers, meanwhile, have been a better defensive team at home this season, yielding 113.2 points per contest, while their offense has been only 0.1 point per game better than their season scoring average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Golden State at 8 pm et on Friday. Consecutive 'over' results have helped keep this total reasonably high as we enter Game 6 of the series on Friday in San Francisco. The Warriors continue to play effective defense having now held 14 of their last 15 opponents to 44 made field goals or less. On the flip side, they're coming off a game in which they knocked down 50 field goals - a number they're unlikely to approach again on Friday. Keep in mind, the Kings have limited 11 of their last 13 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. We're talking about two teams that are playing at a reasonably fast pace but still managing to hold their form defensively. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the last two games, the Kings haven't seen three straight contests go 'over' the total since a four-game streak from March 18th to 24th. To find the last time the Warriors delivered three straight 'over' results you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to 8th, when they also saw four consecutive games go 'over' the total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 109-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This play sets up similarly to when we (successfully) backed the 'over' in Game 2 of this series last week. Remember, the series-opener was exceptionally low-scoring with just 189 total points scored but as expected, Game 2 was much higher-scoring, reaching into the low-230's. Note that the 'under' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since back in May and October 2021. Since then, the two teams have matched up 11 times with the 'over' going 8-3. While we did win with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday, it wasn't easy as overtime nearly toppled the total. Of course that contest reached only 192 points in regulation time. As I've noted previously in this series, the Timberwolves have been one of the most productive 'fast break' teams in the league this season - top-eight in the league in fast break points during the regular season, in fact. While injuries have played a factor, they've played far too slow in this series. However, with some life following Sunday's overtime win, I do expect Minnesota to play with 'house money' on Tuesday and push the pace more than we've seen. Karl-Anthony Towns' two highest-scoring games of this series have come in the last two contests. The sudden absence of Kyle Anderson means more scoring opportunities for the likes of Towns and Anthony Edwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. On the flip side, the Nuggets are heavily-favored for a reason here. Note that while they average 115.7 points per game overall this season, that number bumps up to 118.5 when coming off a road loss (22-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 229.4 points in that situation. While it was aided by overtime on Sunday, Denver has now knocked down more than 40 field goals in all four games in this series. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with the Nuggets playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. In fact the 'over' is 58-36 with Denver coming off a loss over the same stretch and a long-term 176-139 when the Nuggets check in off an outright defeat as a favorite, which is the situation here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series last Sunday but have stayed idle from a totals perspective since with the 'under' cashing in the last two games. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair than we saw on Saturday, when the Lakers prevailed by a 111-101 score. The Grizzlies have shot poorly in consecutive games, knocking down just 38 and 35 field goals. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday as Memphis hoisted up 93 field goal attempts and Los Angeles got off 90. Note that the last time the Grizzlies were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games was way back on February 5th and 7th. In their next game they went off for 49-of-84 shooting in a 128-point outburst against Minnesota. Prior to that they were held to 39 and 36 made field goals on December 25th and 27th, respectively, before knocking down 48 in a 119-point effort against Toronto. The week previous to that they were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive affairs before connecting on 45 in a 125-point performance against Phoenix. You get the picture. The Lakers responded following a poor offensive showing in Game 2 by making good on 41-of-90 field goal attempts for 111 points on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have now allowed seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Neither team has been able to slow down its opposition with any sort of consistency with Memphis allowing 90 or more FG attempts in nine of its last 12 games and Los Angeles yielding 89 or more FG attempts in eight of its last 10 contests. We've now seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total and that's notable as you would have to go back to late 2020-early 2021 to find the last time three straight meetings stayed 'under'. The last time we saw consecutive 'under' results in this series was on December 9th and 29th of 2021 and the next matchup resulted in a whopping 246 total points right here in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies average 116.5 points per game this season but that number rises to 117.1 when coming off a game in which they scored 105 points or less (17-game sample size), as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 228.6 points. Similarly, the Lakers average 116.8 points per game this season but that scoring average increases to 117.3 when coming off an 'under' result (39-game sample size), leading to an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. Finally, we'll note that you would have to go back to February 15th to March 3rd - when the Grizzlies posted an 0-5-1 o/u mark - to find the last time Memphis was involved in more than two 'under' results in a row. Meanwhile, the Lakers last posted a three-game 'under' streak from March 15th to 19th with the 'over' going 10-4 in their 14 games since. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. If the Timberwolves are going to extend this series back to Denver for Game 5 they're going to need to play a certain way on Sunday night in Minnesota and I think that involves effectively shortening proceedings by grinding it out and turning this into a slugfest. I say that because they can't expect to get much more from a banged-up Anthony Edwards than they did in Friday's loss as he poured in 36 points on 10-of-22 shooting from the field and 13-of-15 from the free throw line. Karl-Anthony Towns produced 27 points in that game as well, but again the T'Wolves still lost by nine points. Without the likes of Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels, not to mention Jaylen Nowell playing hurt, the T'Wolves just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Denver. With that being said, it's rarely easy to close an opponent out and the Nuggets are likely to find that out here. Denver has of course dealt with its own injury issues with Nikola Jokic in particular still probably playing at less than 100%. It's worth noting that this will be the third game in five nights in this series. Denver has made a concerted effort to slow things down in this series, limiting the T'Wolves to 81, 79 and 79 field goal attempts while topping out at 90 FG attempts itself - that coming in the series-opener, which happened to be the lowest-scoring game of the series to date. We know that Minnesota is capable of stepping up defensively as it has limited the opposition to 41-of-88 shooting on average here at home this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-4 with the T'Wolves playing at home off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 222.5 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a major adjustment to the total over the course of this series, and rightfully so as the first three games have stayed comfortably 'under' the total. With that being said, I expect a different story to unfold in this matinee affair on Sunday in Manhattan. It's not that the two teams played at a snail's pace in Game 3 on Friday - in fact it was played at a fairly frenetic tempo in the early going but both teams were simply ice cold from the field and three-point range in particular. Even the free throw line proved to be a difficult spot with the two teams combining to shoot 21-of-35 from the charity stripe (they've combined to knock down 36-of-47 free throw attempts on average this season). From beyond the arc, we did see the scoring pick up a bit in the second half in Game 3 with the two sides combining to make good on 17 threes, but that was on 66 attempts. They average 24-of-68 combined shooting from three point range this season. There's too much offensive talent on the floor to see another ugly shooting performance on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 108-79 with the Cavaliers seeking revenge for a 20-point loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks seem to have gained a boost following home wins this season, averaging 5.3 points more than their season scorning average, but also giving up 1.3 additional points per game, when coming off a win at Madison Square Garden, with the 'over' going 16-7 in those contests. We've now seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total, which is notable. The last time three consecutive matchups between these two teams stayed 'under' the total in the same season was back in the 2015-16 campaign. There was another three-game 'under' streak that spanned across two seasons in 2017 and only one of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with today. The next game following that streak totalled 232 points. I expect the Cavs in particular to make the necessary adjustments to punch back here but the Knicks are favored for a reason at home and their multi-dimensional offense is always a handful to defend here at MSG. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 220.5 | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen two exceptionally high-scoring games to open this series, totalling 247 and 260 points. Now we're heading into uncharted territory in this series, however, noting that the 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings, matching the longest 'over' streak since way back in 2007-08. That four-game 'over' streak ended with an extremely low-scoring 78-73 Heat victory, staying 'under' the total by 40+ points. While we're not going to see that type of defensive struggle here, I do think the total will prove too high. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains questionable to play for the Bucks. Regardless whether he's able to go, the incentive is there for the Heat to slow things down at home, where they've averaged 40 made field goals per game while giving up an identical 40. We've seen a shift from the Bucks defensively as they've made an effort to limit their opponents' possessions, unlike what we saw for much of the regular season. They've limited four of their last seven foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat have knocked down 50 and 45 field goals in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they've made good on 45 or more field goals in just six of their last 15 contests. In other words, I don't think their hot shooting is sustainable. The Bucks, meanwhile, made good on a whopping 53 field goals in Game 2. The previous three times they knocked down 50 or more field goals, they connected on just 39, 38 and 39 field goals in their next contest with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 127-96 with the Heat playing the role of home underdog, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 211 | 79-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in these two teams' final regular season meeting back on March 31st - a game that totalled a whopping 246 total points. Since then, we've seen Games 1 and 2 of this playoff series stay comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however, as the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden for Game 3. Both defenses are terrific, that much we know. The offenses aren't too bad either though, even if the Knicks did turn in a brutal performance in Game 2. Keep in mind, Game 1 reached 198 total points despite both teams shooting poorly, knocking down a combined 73 field goals (they've combined to average 83 made field goals per game this season). Game 2's low-scoring result had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the contest, with the Cavaliers racing ahead by 20 points before halftime and then effectively taking the air out of the basketball in the fourth quarter (they ran the shot clock down on nearly every possession in the final 7-8 minutes). Cleveland keyed on stopping Jalen Brunson on Tuesday after he scored 27 points in just 29 minutes in the series-opener. The Knicks supporting cast certainly didn't perform up to standards in Game 2 but I'm confident we'll see a solid bounce-back effort across the board here, including from Brunson as New York makes the necessary adjustments to find him more open looks. Note that Josh Hart was a virtual non-factor offensively in his 26 minutes as he played hurt with an ankle injury (he scored five points but averages double-figures this season). The extra day off between Games 2 and 3 should serve him well. On the flip side, Donovan Mitchell scored just 17 points in Game 2 - only the second time in the last nine games he contributed 30 points or less. Again, that had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the game. Even if Darius Garland stays aggressive in Game 3, I still expect Mitchell to get his. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has not cashed in three straight meetings in this series since 2017. That stretch came across two seasons. To find the last time three consecutive matchups have stayed 'under' the total in the same season, you would have to go back to the 2015-16 campaign. Also note that in that most recent three-game series 'under' streak in 2017, only two of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight. Finally, we'll note that while the Knicks average 117.3 points per game at home this season, that number bumps up to 120.3 ppg when listed as a home favorite, as is the case here. Better still, the 'over' is 13-5 with New York playing at home following an 'under' result, with the Knicks averaging 121.4 points per contest and those games totalling an average of 235.1 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday. The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Memphis at 3 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers were involved in an incredibly low-scoring game against the Timberwolves in the Play-In Tournament - a contest that reached only 210 total points despite being aided by overtime. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as they open the first round against the Grizzlies on Sunday afternoon. Memphis was a shell of its former self defensively down the stretch and I'm not convinced we see it simply 'flip the switch' here. The Grizzlies check in having allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Of those 11 opponents, six made good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Memphis found its rhythm offensively, knocking down at least 40 field goals in 14 of its last 15 contests. Since March 15th, we've seen the Grizzlies post consecutive 'under' results only once (I point that out as their most recent game did stay 'under' the total) and only one of those two contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with on Sunday. The Lakers had an off shooting night against the T'Wolves last time out but were in line for some regression after making good on 45 or more field goals in each of their previous seven games. Defensively, the Lakers had yielded 40 or more made field goals in an incredible 16 straight games before holding the T'Wolves to only 36 on Tuesday (note that Minnesota was severely limited offensively in that game with Anthony Edwards banged-up and rendered ineffective and Rudy Gobert sidelined due to suspension). Los Angeles has allowed an average of 45-of-94 shooting on the road this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-07-23 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a very low-scoring game by today's NBA standards between these two teams on this same floor two nights ago as the Celtics scrapped their way to a 97-93 victory in a tough back-to-back situation. Here, I expect a lot more offense as the two teams get ready for the postseason but perhaps lack defensive intensity with little to play for at this point. The Raptors will certainly want to get back on track offensively after a dismal showing on Wednesday. They shot 6-of-33 from three-point range in that contest, noting that they average 11 made threes per game this season. The pace was still there as they hoisted up 90 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that they've gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven games overall. The Celtics are coming off consecutive poor offensive performances, including a 38-of-91 showing from the field in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Like the Raptors, the Celtics have continued to push the pace here late in the season, hoisting up 89 or more FG attempts in each of their last eight contests. While Boston is thought of as an elite defensive team, that hasn't necessarily been the case lately as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts and allows an average of 42 made field goals per game at home this season. The C's could be without two of their top defenders on Friday with Derrick White and Marcus Smart questionable to play as they employ some 'load management' in the late going. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 230 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have struggled at the best of times defensively and neither has much incentive to ratchet up the defensive intensity for Thursday's 'meaningless' matchup in San Antonio. With that being said, both teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and I feel that's affording us a very reasonable total to work with on Thursday. The Blazers have actually found some rhythm offensively despite missing so many key contributors. They've knocked down 40, 43 and 42 field goals over their last three games and have been comfortable pushing the pace more than they had been previously, hoisting up 85, 93 and 97 field goal attempts in those most recent three contests. They'll have a prime opportunity to build on those encouraging performances in San Antonio on Thursday as the Spurs have been sieve-like defensively, allowing 43 or more made field goals in an incredible 12 straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall. The only reason they gave up 'only' 43 made field goals last time out was due to the lopsided nature of their game against the Suns (Phoenix attempted only 89 field goals). In what projects as a much closer affair here, we can anticipate the Blazers getting well into the 90's in terms of FG attempts. The Spurs had their streak of three straight games knocking down at least 42 field goals snapped last time out. They'll take a major step down in class after facing the Suns in that matchup, however. Portland has allowed six of its last seven opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals despite four of those foes getting off 87 or fewer FG attempts. Note that the Spurs have hoisted up 90 or more FG attempts in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 243.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board (at the time of writing) but I don't believe it is warranted. Oklahoma City checks in off a high-scoring 'over' result against the Suns on Sunday. Keep in mind, the Thunder haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since March 16th and 19th. They were actually held to just 36-of-88 from the field in that double-digit loss on Sunday and have knocked down 42 or less field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, they've limited three of their last five opponents to 82 made field goals or fewer. The Warriors dropped a 112-110 decision in Denver on Sunday. They've allowed each of their last seven opponents to knock down 44 or fewer made field goals despite four of those foes hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. The 'over' has cashed in just four of their last 12 games overall. I understand the logic behind the lofty total here, noting that each of the previous three meetings between these two teams this season totalled at least 248 points. I simply feel we'll see a reversal of that trend here, noting that the Warriors have posted a 12-24 o/u record when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 221.8 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-02-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding three-game 'under' streaks but I look for a reversal of that trend here. Houston has had a tougher time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five games after eclipsing that mark five of its previous six contests. The outlier was a game in Brooklyn where the Rockets shot 46-of-98 from the field but still scored 'only' 114 points. Defensively, I like the fact that Houston has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities somewhat lately, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. Los Angeles has displayed a different offensive dynamic since Lebron James returned to the lineup. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed offensively but its been Lebron that has absorbed the majority of the opportunities. Note that Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in three straight games, knocking down exactly 45 field goals in back-to-back contests heading into this one. It's not as if the Lakers have been playing at a break-neck pace - they've gotten off 90 or more FG attempts just three times in their last 11 games, topping out at 91 over that stretch (in a game where they scored 'only' 116 points leading to a total of 227 against Oklahoma City). Discipline has been key defensively as Los Angeles hasn't allowed more than 118 points in any of its last 11 games despite all 11 of those opponents knocking down 40 or more field goals. The Lakers allowed 114 points the last time they faced the Rockets on March 15th but that was on a blistering 47-of-89 shooting and that contest still stayed 'under' the total with only 224 points scored. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-02-23 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 222.5 | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Knicks stunning rout of the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as New York returns home to host an undermanned Wizards squad on Sunday. Washington is coming off consecutive 'over' results but both of those contests were played at home, where the Wiz have played at a much faster tempo lately. Note that Washington has gotten off just 81, 84, 76, 83 and 86 field goal attempts in its last five road games. In those last two contests played at home the Wiz hoisted up 99 and 105 FG attempts. I mentioned Washington has posted consecutive 'over' results and that's notable as it hasn't recorded three straight 'overs' since February 28th to March 4th and that streak was aided by an overtime game against Toronto. To find the last time the Wiz were involved in three straight 'over' results not aided by overtime you would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to 9th. Their longest 'over' streak of the season lasted only four games and that came way back in November. The Knicks exploded offensively on Friday but keep in mind they're just one game removed from knocking down only 38 field goals, albeit on just 76 FG attempts, against Miami. In fact, New York has been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 12 games overall. Defensively, the Knicks have held seven straight opponents to 47 or fewer FG attempts. While New York is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series, it hasn't eclipsed 117 points in any of those six contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 231 | 138-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings scored 120 points without barely breaking a sweat in their 120-80 win here in Portland two nights ago. If this game is even remotely more competitive (as I expect it to be), there's a good chance we see Sacramento absolutely go off offensively. The Blazers truly can't be any worse than they were in Wednesday's game. On a positive note, they did get off 93 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities were there and should continue to be there on Friday, noting that the Kings have allowed 91, 88, 92, 89, 91, 86 and 93 field goal attempts over their last seven games, still yielding 119 points in the lone outlier in which they held the T'Wolves to 86. Prior to Wednesday's contest, Sacramento had allowed six consecutive opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Blazers coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season, resulting in an average total of 234.7 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and in the case of the Cavs, back-to-back 'unders'. Cleveland could be missing Jarrett Allen for a second straight game which is critical to their defensive play and rebounding in particular. I suspect if he misses the Knicks will afford themselves a great deal more scoring opportunities after being limited to only 76 field goal attempts against Miami on Wednesday. Of course, New York has its own injury issues with Julius Randle now sidelined. The Knicks undoubtedly have the scoring depth to pick up the slack, however. They'll need to 'keep up' with the Cavs here, noting that Cleveland has made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games with the only exception coming in a blowout win over the Rockets where it eased off the gas in the fourth quarter (we won with the 'under' in that game). While the Knicks did limit the Heat to just 35-of-79 shooting on Wednesday, they had previously allowed five straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals. This has been a low-scoring series recently with the last two meetings staying 'under' the total. It's worth noting though that we haven't seen three or more consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2017-18. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks check in off consecutive high-scoring affairs in road wins over the Pistons and Pacers but should face a great deal more resistance in this back-to-back spot against a rested Celtics squad. Boston is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it inexplicably allowed 130 points in a rout at the hands of the short-handed Wizards in Washington two nights ago. Perhaps that result was to be expected after the Celtics were lulled into a sense of complacency following three straight blowout wins. Here, I look for Boston to tighten things up, noting that it has still held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While you wouldn't know it by their last few games, the Bucks can play some defense, especially here at home where they've limited the opposition to 42-of-93 shooting on average this season. In games that project as ultra-competitive (with the line between +3 and -3 as is the case here at the time of writing), the Bucks have posted a 17-29 o/u record over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 223.4 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-29-23 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 235 | 120-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take advantage of the reasonable total being offered here thanks to the Kings coming off consecutive 'under' results and the Blazers riding a three-game 'under' streak into Wednesday's contest. The Kings are healthy again and figure to go off offensively against a Blazers squad that has been matador-like since losing the bulk of its starters to injuries, allowing 48, 41 and 49 made field goals over their last three games. The outlier over that stretch came in a contest where they still allowed 118 points against the Thunder. While Portland has unsurprisingly struggled to generate consistent offense without the likes of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons, there is reason for optimism entering this matchup. The Kings have been vulnerable defensively in recent games, lit up for 46, 49, 48, 47 and 44 made field goals over their last five contests. There's a fairly high probability they'll struggle to ramp up the defensive intensity in this uninspiring matchup when you consider Portland could only muster 90 points against New Orleans last time out. I simply feel this total will prove too low noting the Blazers have seen more than three consecutive games stay 'under' the total only once previously this season with that four-game 'under' streak coming back in late-December. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-29-23 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 225.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 220 | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are as locked-in defensively as any team in the NBA right now having held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They figure to continue their strong play at that end of the floor here as they take on the Paul George-less Clippers on Monday. Since losing George to injury last week, the Clips have played twice, splitting those two games and getting off just 84 and 75 field goal attempts. They actually shot considerably well in both contests but I don't expect a similar story to unfold here. Los Angeles is favored for a reason in this spot, though, with Chicago unlikely to shoot the lights out the way it has in the first two games of its current road trip. Despite scoring 124 and 118 points over their last two games, the Bulls have still gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight contests. I can't help but think Los Angeles will be set on keeping the pace to a minimum here after allowing the Pelicans to shoot 51-of-96 from the field in Saturday's blowout loss. Note that the only previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points as the Clips won (and covered) in Chicago, limiting the Bulls to only 77 FG attempts in that victory. We're working with a lower posted total this time around, but I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-26-23 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 225 | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rockets shot a blistering 51.6% and 54% from the field in consecutive losses in Memphis earlier this week but I expect nothing of the sort as they continue their road trip (and likely their losing streak) in Cleveland on Sunday. There's really been nothing special about the Rockets offense lately, they simply had a couple of strong performances against an opponent that didn't necessarily take them all that seriously (in the first game of the two-game set in particular). Note that Houston has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last seven contests. The Cavs rallied for a win in Brooklyn last time out - their third win in a row. Note that Cleveland has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight straight games. Even in their most recent game, where they trailed much of the way and needed to stage a late-game comeback, they still weren't all that interested in really pushing the pace. Defensively, the Cavs are locked-in right now having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and nine of their last 11 foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. The only previous time they faced the Rockets this season they yielded just 76 FG attempts in a 113-95 road victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Rockets coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 221.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-29 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 213.9 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga OVER 153.5 | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 222.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Nets 'over' in the front half of their two-game set with the Cavs earlier this week (the second matchup went 'over' the total as well). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Brooklyn heads to Miami to face the surging Heat on Saturday, however. Note that the Nets squeezed about as much as they could out of their offense last time out but still produced 'only' 114 points in a narrow loss to Cleveland. Brooklyn has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of its last five games. On a positive note, the Nets have topped out at 42 made field goals allowed over their last four contests, limiting all four of those opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Heat have settled back into their preferred style and that involves a methodical pace as they've hoisted up 82 or fewer FG attempts in five straight games. Only twice over that stretch did they manage to knock down more than 38 field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off more than 82 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |