Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-03-22 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 240 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings loss in New Orleans last night. We also won with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a loss in Memphis on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the two teams meet up in San Antonio. Neither of these teams are playing a lick of defense right now. The Kings have allowed four of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, giving up 40 or more field goals in 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Spurs have been even worse. Their last three opponents have knocked down 59, 47 and 48 field goals, all shooting better than 53% from the field. Offensively, the Spurs continue to roll, having put up 105 points or more in seven straight games, eclipsing the 120-point mark in four of those contests. While the Kings have hit a bit of a lull and were held under 100 points last night, I don't think they'll need to be coerced into getting involved in a track meet here. Prior to last night's game, Sacramento had scored 110+ points in four consecutive games. While we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the two previous matchups between these two teams this season, I believe the adjustment is warranted. Note that the last time these two squared off in San Antonio, they combined to score 253 points back in November. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons enter Thursday's game in Toronto riding a 4-0-1 'over' run. Going back a little further, the 'over' is 6-1-1 in their last eight contests. I'm not convinced the pace has been there to warrant such a run, however, and I expect the tide to turn on Thursday night. Note that none of Detroit's last six opponents have gotten off more than 89 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pistons have managed to shoot considerably better than their season average over their last three contests. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors defense step up and keep the Detroit offense in check here, noting that Toronto has limited eight of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raps themselves have been playing at a fairly fast pace but I suspect they'll look to 'manage' proceedings a bit here, noting that this is the front half of a back-to-back, not to mention the middle of a stretch that will see them play seven games in 10 nights. Toronto has done a terrific job of limiting the oppositions scoring opportunities here at home this season, holding them to an average of 38-of-83 shooting, while giving up less than 106 points per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with Detroit coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average of only 212.6 total points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 29-9 with Toronto coming off two or more consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While this game is being priced as a potential track meet in the betting marketplace, I believe the total will prove too high. The Kings have been shooting the lights out lately but I'm not convinced it continues here. The pace hasn't necessarily been there but the Kings have seen three of their last four games go 'over' the total, despite the fact that they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all four of those games while also limiting their opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last three contests. The new-look Pelicans should pose a considerable challenge here. New Orleans has come out of the break holding the Suns and Lakers to 36-of-82 and 35-of-84 shooting, respectively, in posting consecutive wins. We'll see if their offensive surge will continue at home, where they average 109 points per game on 40 made field goals including only 11 made three-pointers per game here in the Big Easy this season. The Kings have limited the Pelicans to 109 and 99 points in two previous meetings this season. While the addition of C.J. McCollum has certainly provided a boost, I can see this as a big of a letdown spot for the home side, helping keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on Sunday in New York in a game that totalled 234 points. We're dealing with a higher posted total as a result for this one, but I don't believe the adjustment is warranted. Keep in mind, Sunday's game saw a whopping 79 free throw attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see a similar story unfold here, noting that the first two meetings between these two teams this season totalled only 211 and 199 points with no more than 32 free throw attempts in either contest. The 76ers average just 107.1 points per game when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here (19-game sample size). When playing at home following an 'over' result, that number drops to 104.3 points with an average total of just 207.3 points (12-game sample size). Finally, I'll point to the fact that the 'under' is 31-18 in the last 49 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw this same matchup two nights ago with the Magic cruising to a 119-103 victory over the Pacers, easily staying 'under' the total. That was a tough back-to-back spot for the Pacers. Here, I expect them to put up more of a fight and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Indiana has now scored more than 100 points in eight straight games. The problem is it has also allowed 100+ points in all eight of those games, with those eight opponents all scoring 107 or more points. Interestingly, the Pacers have allowed a whopping 123.9 points per game in games where the total has been posted at 230 points or higher over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Magic have topped out at 119 points this season, reaching that number on three different occasions. They enter tonight's game having posted exactly 119 points in consecutive games - in other words, they're playing their best offensive basketball of the season. Like the Pacers, they've had trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket, however, allowing 103 points or more in six straight games. They've actually been worse defensively at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 112.0 points per game here in Orlando. We've certainly seen the Magic make a concerted effort to push the pace a little more than usual lately, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 40+ field goals in all four contests. The Pacers will certainly afford them plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that they've yielded 91, 101 (overtime), 91 and 96 FG attempts in their last four games. The 'over' checks in 13-3 over their last 16 contests. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a wild 133-129 loss in Miami on Saturday. It was obviously from the jump that Miami took a win for granted in that game with the Spurs missing a number of key contributors including Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Here, I don't think the Spurs will be so fortunate. Go up and down the San Antonio lineup and you'll see that virtually the entire roster shot the lights out in that game on Saturday. It will face a different challenge here though, with the Grizzlies coming out of the break playing solid defense, limiting Minnesota and Chicago to a combined 82-for-186 (44%) shooting. Note that the Grizz have held the Spurs to 105 and 110 points in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, Memphis has scored fewer than 120 points in three straight games after eclipsing that mark in six consecutive games previously. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-5 with the Spurs playing on the road following an ATS win this season, leading to an average total of 218.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 22-9 with San Antonio coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 216.4 points. The Spurs are coming off three straight 'over' results, matching their longest such streak of the season. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat have now seen their last two games go 'over' the total and you would have to go back six games to find the last time they've held an opponent to under 100 points. Keep in mind, they've had only two stretches longer than five games without holding an opponent under the century mark on only two previous occasions this season. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for high-scoring affairs, but in Miami's most recent game, it shot better than 56% from the field while its opponent, San Antonio shot 55.6%. I don't expect that type of track meet to unfold here as the Heat will be looking to 'manage' proceedings before a back-to-back road set beginning on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Bulls are coming off one of their weaker offensive performances in weeks as they scored 110 points on 41.9% shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. This certainly isn't an ideal bounce-back spot noting they average right around 3.0 points less than their season average in terms of points per game on the road this season. Note that they've scored just 104 and 92 points in two previous meetings with Miami this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers blowout loss to the Warriors on Thursday night but we were somewhat fortunate to do so as Portland had a difficult time just getting shots off, let alone scoring, as it attempted just 78 field goals and shot below 40%. Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, not to mention the fact the Blazers are dealing with a number of key injuries, including one to Jusuf Nurkic, it's likely going to be a grind for them down the stretch. The Nuggets will be an unforgiving opponent on Sunday night. With that being said, Denver is playing its third game in four nights, in three different cities, and likely won't have much interest in a track meet here. The Nuggets didn't look to have the freshest legs last night as they knocked down just 38-of-82 (46.3%) of their field goal attempts against an awful Kings defense. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately, neither have been involved in what you would consider ultra fast-paced games lately. Nuggets opponents have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five games while the Blazers have limited the opposition to 90 or less FG attempts in six straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Bakersfield and Hawaii at midnight et on Saturday. We saw CSUB's seven-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out as it was involved in a slugfest that totalled only 121 points against Cal-Poly. I expect more of the same as it heads to Hawaii on Saturday. Both of these teams have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. CSUB checks in allowing just 22 made field goals per game on the road this season. While opponents have gotten to the free throw line with consistency against them, Hawaii doesn't figure to be a team to take full advantage, noting that it averages only 17 trips to the charity stripe per game and got there only 12 times in the first meeting between these two this season (that game totalled only 122 points). Hawaii has really stepped it up defensively of late, limiting three of its last four opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals. It does send opponents to the free throw line 20 times per game here at home but again, CSUB doesn't figure to take advantage, noting that it gets to the line just 15 times per contest and shoots sub-70% from the stripe on the road this season. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 236 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Nets and Bucks on Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Nets are coming off yet another loss, this time in blowout fashion at home against the Celtics on Thursday. Boston barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that contest so I shudder at the thought of what the Bucks, who haven't played since the All-Star break, will be able to do on Saturday night. Incredible, seven of the Nets last nine opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. The good news is, they're back on the road, where they of course have the much-needed services of Kyrie Irving to at least attempt to keep pace. Note that Brooklyn is averaging 113.2 points per game on the road this season, nearly three points north of its season scoring average. While the Bucks should be able to score at will in this game, I question whether they'll be able to stop Brooklyn. Note that Milwaukee's opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, scoring 131, 122, 119 and 123 points over its last four games. In fact, the Bucks have given up 108+ points in seven straight games. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met back in January, the Nets were at home and didn't have Kyrie Irving. They still scored 109 points despite shooting a woeful 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. They average double that - 12 made threes per game - on the road this season. For their part, the Bucks have allowed 14 made three-pointers per contest here at home this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in San Antonio's wild 157-153 double-overtime win in Washington last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Spurs continue their road trip in Miami on Saturday. The Heat played last night as well, securing a 115-100 win over the Knicks in New York. This is a game where Miami will be looking to 'manage' proceedings in my opinion as they have another game at home against Chicago on Monday before a back-to-back on the road in Milwaukee and Brooklyn on Wednesday and Thursday. In other words, I don't think the Heat have any interest in a track meet here. Note that Miami has done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding three of their last six opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Spurs coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of 212.2 points. The Heat took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 112-95 score on February 3rd and that's notable as the 'under' is 16-6 with the Spurs on the road seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 216.1 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Despite a pre-trade deadline fire sale of sorts, the Spurs went into the All-Star break having scored 109+ points in four straight games. The problem is, they also allowed 104 points or more in 14 consecutive games prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Wizards come out of the break after scoring 100+ points in six straight games. Like the Spurs, they haven't done a great job of defending their own basket, giving up 113+ points in four of their last six contests, only avoiding that fate against the likes of the Pistons and Nets (without all of their stars). Note that the Spurs check in averaging 112.0 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. Washington on the other hand has averaged 118.8 points per contest when coming off a double-digit win over the same time frame (20-game sample size). I expect to see both teams race up and down the floor with considerable success on Friday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday. Cleveland State is on an incredible 'over' run right now, with seven of its last eight games finding their way 'over' the total with one 'push' mixed in. The Vikings have scored 85, 84, 75, 83, 98, 78 and 79 points over that stretch and I don't see the Detroit Titans doing much to slow them down here. I do think the Titans can stick around, however, and I'm certainly not alone with this pointspread sitting near a pk'em. The Titans play reasonably fast at home, and get off an average of 30 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 12 of them. If they play their cards right, they should also be afforded plenty of opportunities at the free throw line, with Cleveland State sending opponents to the charity stripe an average of 22 times per game on the road this season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 142 points but that contest was played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating tonight, not to mention the fact that Detroit knocked down only 4-of-21 three-point attempts, a performance I'm certain it can and will improve on here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Cleveland State coming off a double-digit victory over a conference opponent this season, leading to an average total of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and UCF at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Cincinnati has seen the 'over' cash in six straight games entering Wednesday's matchup with the Golden Knights in Orlando. The Bearcats have scored 70+ points in five straight games but clearly what they're doing right now isn't working as they've lost five of their last eight contests, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. I do think that UCF will be able to slow the Bearcats down, noting that the Knights allow an average of only 23 made field goals and 14 free throw attempts per game here at home this season. The 'under' has cashed in UCF's last two games and it checks in having given up fewer than 70 points in five of its last seven contests. Only one of the two games where the Knights did allow 70 or more points over that stretch found its way 'over' the total. Interestingly, Cincinnati has been at its absolute best defensively on the road this season, giving up only 23 made field goals including just three made threes per game away from home. With that being said, it has had an issue with sending opponents to the charity stripe, yielding 23 free throw attempts per game on the road. Can the Knights exploit that? I'm not so sure. UCF averages only 17 free throw attempts per contest overall and just 14 per game at home. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season and it's worth noting that we're working with a higher posted total than we saw in either of last season's two meetings. Those two games went 'over' the total but only one eclipsed the number we're working with here. That being said, seven of the last eight meetings between these two quads here in Orlando have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-23-22 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Texas' most recent game - a 61-55 loss at home against Texas Tech on Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Longhorns look to bounce back against another in-state rival in TCU. As I noted in Saturday's analysis, Texas has done an incredible job playing defense at home this season, allowing only 19 made field goals including only five made threes per game, also sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per contest. TCU doesn't figure to be a team that will easily break down the Longhorns defense. When these two teams met back on January 25th at TCU, the Horned Frogs scored only 50 points, knocking down just 18 field goals including only two shots from beyond the arc. Were it not for 21 trips to the free throw line, that could have been a truly embarrassing offensive performance (it was already bad enough considering TCU lost by a score of 73-50). Texas actually got off an uncharacteristically-high 65 field goal attempts in that contest, helping boost their scoring output. Consider the Longhorns average just 55 FG attempts per game, 54 per contest here at home. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-2 with Texas coming off an ATS loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 116.2 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-21-22 | Eastern Illinois v. SIU-Edwardsville UNDER 128 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville at 8 pm et on Monday. Eastern Illinois has been one of the best 'under' bets in the country this season, with 19 of its 26 lined games staying 'under' the total. Few teams play at a slower pace, as the Panthers rank 296th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). To compound matters, they rank a dreadful 357th in adjusted offensive efficiency. SIU-Edwardsville plays at a faster pace but doesn't fare much better offensively, ranking 327th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both teams have had a penchant for turning the basketball over. In fact, Edwardsville turned it over 19 times in the first meeting between these two teams this season yet Eastern Illinois still only managed to score 53 points despite all of those extra possessions. On the road, we've seen the Panthers average just 19 made field goals including an average of only six from beyond the arc. That's not to mention only eight made free throws per road game. In a game where SIU-Edwardsville figures to control proceedings and perhaps take the air out of the basketball with a sizable lead in the second half, I'm comfortable playing the 'under', even at a lower number than we saw in the first meeting this season (that game totalled only 119 points). Take the under (7*). | |||||||
02-21-22 | Liberty v. Central Arkansas OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Liberty and Central Arkansas at 8 pm et on Monday. Central Arkansas checks into this game off three consecutive 'under' results but remains one of the fastest-paced teams in the entire country, ranking 13th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. A look at its home conference games shows totals of 181, 177, 167, 188, 154, 148 and 159 points. Liberty is coming off a tougher-than-expected 88-82 win over Stetson on Saturday. The Flames don't play at nearly the same break-neck pace as Central Arkansas but as we saw on Saturday, they're certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. That's thanks in large part to the fact that they knock down 11 three-pointers per game with not much of a drop-off in production at all on the road this season. Central Arkansas will certainly afford Liberty plenty of opportunities in this contest, noting that it yields 24 three-point attempts and 20 trips to the free throw line at home this season. It's worth noting that it has held three straight opponents to fewer than 80 points as it marks the first time that has happened all season. Don't count on the Bears accomplishing that feat for a fourth consecutive game on Monday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Team Durant v. Team LeBron OVER 320.5 | 160-163 | Win | 100 | 58 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team Lebron and Team Durant at 8 pm et on Sunday. I would recommend jumping on this play early as the total is only going to rise leading up to tipoff on Sunday. Last year's All-Star Game actually totalled only 320 points. In fact, since the format changed to Team Lebron vs. Team 'insert name here', we've only seen one of four games go 'over' the total we're working with this year. I believe we're going to see a throwback to the games of 2016 and 2017, when we saw point totals up around 370 points. The talent on these two rosters is incredible (I don't need to tell you that). I also think we have two squads more than willing to push the pace at every opportunity. Team Lebron is favored for a reason. The mix of scorers and distributors should make for some very appealing offensive basketball. With that being said, you can be sure guys like Ja Morant, Trae Young and Devin Booker will ball out on the other side and should be able to keep within arm's reach all night long. I have this one soaring 'over' the total - always nice to make a little money if we're going to sit down and watch a glorified exhibition game in the middle of February. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 141 points back on February 1st. I don't think the Longhorns want any part of a similar type of contest here, noting that they allowed 77 points in that lopsided loss. Keep in mind, this is a Texas team that gives up just a shade over 50 points per game at home this season, on a ridiculously-low 49 field goal attempts. Texas Tech can play some defense too, as we saw in its impressive home win over Baylor earlier this week. The Red Raiders have held the opposition to 38% shooting on the road this season. This is without a doubt a low total, but it's actually higher than the closing number we saw in the first meeting between these two this season. With injury doubts for the Red Raiders (Kevin McCullar could miss again), I believe they'll be comfortable getting involved in a slugfest here. Expect an NCAA Tournament-like atmosphere for this one. Take the under (9*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |