Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-01-24 | Pirates v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as the Pirates and A's wrap up their Interleague series in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. The Pirates check in last in the majors in OPS over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Oakland, while enjoying a bit of an offensive surge of late, ranks 28th in baseball in OPS vs. right-handed pitching this season. Quinn Priester will get the start for Pittsburgh. His ground-ball numbers have been off the charts this season. Oddly enough home runs have been an issue but that should be negated by pitching at cavernous Oakland Coliseum (with no current A's hitter having seen him before). Ross Stripling checks in with a respectable 3.54 FIP on the season. Noting that the Pirates rank 29th in baseball in OPS vs. righties there's a path for continued success from Stripling here. Current Pirates hitters are 12-for-39 against him but only Andrew McCutchen has enjoyed considerable success (6-for-11). Keep in mind McCutchen is hitting .190 this season. The A's bullpen has quietly been among the best in baseball this season with a collective 2.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Pittsburgh's staff hasn't been quite as reliable in the later innings but again the matchup helps in this case. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-26-24 | Guardians v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Braves are coming off a string of low-scoring games but I look for a different story to unfold as we see a battle of southpaw starting pitchers in Logan Allen and Chris Sale. The Guardians aren't known for their offense but they've been on a tear against left-handed pitching this season, ranking third in the majors with an .826 OPS. The Braves are just two spots behind them with a .793 OPS against lefties. Of course, it hasn't really mattered who Atlanta has faced at home - the Braves rank second in baseball with an .804 home OPS. Logan Allen continues to labor through his second big league season with a 5.50 FIP and 1.39 WHIP in five starts. Chris Sale has fared much better for the Braves, sporting a 3.39 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. With his durability always in question, I do think some regression is in order for the veteran left-hander. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Mariners cruised to a 4-0 victory behind another strong pitching performance from Logan Gilbert. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Seattle sends Bryce Miller to the hill against veteran Jon Gray of Texas. Miller hasn't fared well in limited work against the Rangers, allowing their current hitters to collect 10 hits in 25 at-bats with five of those knocks going for extra bases and three for home runs. Not only that but Miller has recorded only a 3:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. The Mariners bullpen has been terrific but Miller is generally good for five or six innings and I expect the Rangers to get their opportunities against him. Jon Gray has held up reasonably well in the early going this season but I do think regression is on the way. Note that current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-88 against him but Mitch Haniger is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs and Ty France and Julio Rodriguez have both gone deep against him as well. In fact, of the 10 Mariners hitters that have faced him all but two have collected at least a hit. Note that Gray has worked five innings or less in seven of his last nine starts so there's a good chance we'll see plenty of the Rangers bullpen. Texas relievers entered this series sporting a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-23-24 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Luis Severino entered the season with rather low expectations as he made the move from the Bronx to Queens to join the Mets. However, the veteran right-hander had a terrific Spring and has picked up where he left off in the regular season, recording a serviceable 3.70 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. The Giants don't have a lot to go on against Severino as their current hitters are a combined 2-for-28 against him with a pair of singles. Behind Severino is a Mets bullpen that entered this series among the best in baseball, sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Giants ace Logan Webb has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Webb is capable of giving the Giants seven-plus quality innings on any given night and he draws a favorable matchup here as current Mets hitters are 13-for-73 against him with only four extra-base hits. Pete Alonso has homered off of Webb but is just 1-for-11 against him. The Giants bullpen hasn't been great this season but again that's not as much of a concern with Webb starting as they may only be asked to piece together an inning or two. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-22-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up as a well-pitched affair between the Blue Jays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Monday. Yusei Kikuchi had an awful Spring for the Blue Jays but has had no such trouble in his first four regular season starts, recording a 2.24 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work. Current Royals hitters have combined to go 7-for-35 against him with just three extra-base hits. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-4 against Kikuchi with a pair of strikeouts and one walk. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. Like Kikuchi, he struggled in the Spring but has pitched reasonably well in his first four regular season outings, logging a 4.06 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone a miserable 8-for-41 against Singer including just on extra-base hit (a home run by Daulton Varsho). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 0-for-7 in his career against Singer. Neither bullpen has been lights out this season but I do think both starters are capable of working relatively deep into this ball game. Of note, the two bullpens entered yesterday's action having combined to record 12 saves while blowing only three. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies bats exploded in the series opener between these two teams last night. I expect the Blue Jays to return the favor against Colorado starter Dakota Hudson on Saturday but question whether Toronto's pitching staff can stem the tide with Yariel Rodriguez getting the call to make his big league debut. Rodriguez is a bit of a Wild Card having mostly excelled as a reliever in Japan. The Blue Jays are certainly believers in him after handing him a $32 million contract but it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the big league level. For now, I'm not anticipating him to work deep into this ball game, nor do I expect him to completely shut down the Rockies bats. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been good and there's no help coming at the moment. Given how I expect the Jays bats to perform in this game I don't think we'll need much from the Rockies to get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll pick on the two starters in this divisional matchup as neither arm has the track record to shine in this particular spot. Dane Dunning can succeed at times for the Rangers but it's more a matter of holding the opposing bats at bay just enough for his team's offense to take care of the rest. Dunning isn't shutting many opponents down. It's a similar story for J.P. France. He has actually recorded a terrific 2.43 FIP through two outings this season but regression figures to be on his way, noting he has posted a lofty 1.50 WHIP. Off a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday the Rangers bats figure to wake up and it's worth mentioning that they just faced France last week, plating three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. The damage could have been even worse as France yielded eight hits and two walks while striking out only four. Dunning fared slightly better against the Astros and has solid career numbers against them. Note the he's faced them just once in Houston and lasted only four innings after giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Giants are coming off an exceptionally high-scoring series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Dodgers saw plenty of runs in their home series against the Cardinals. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as these N.L. West rivals match up for the first time in 2024. Keaton Winn will take the ball for the visiting Giants. He's probably better than a back-of-the-rotation starter after an up-and-down 2023 campaign. Winn saw limited action in the Spring but did record a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's a ground ball pitcher with an effective splitter that should keep the Dodgers mighty bats guessing on Monday. Veteran James Paxton joins the Dodgers after spending last season with the Red Sox. He should benefit from moving over to the National League (and making most of his starts at Dodger Stadium) at this stage of his career. Paxton worked seven innings in the Spring, logging a 5.14 ERA but a solid 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 3 of this series on Tuesday afternoon in Minnesota. Astros starter Cristian Javier had a tough regular season as a whole. Big things were expected of the young right-hander after a phenomenal 2022 campaign but he struggled for the most part. The good news is, he did close out the campaign in solid form, posting a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts. Also note that Javier, while young, has been here before, logging a 4-1 record to go along with a 2.20 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 14 career playoff appearances. Twins starter Sonny Gray has recorded a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the underrated right-hander. Gray tossed five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. For his career, Gray owns a 2.39 ERA with 24 strikeouts in five postseason appearances. Both bullpens are in solid form and of course the off day on Monday helps their cause. Also note that Bill Miller will be the umpire on Tuesday and he has seen the 'under' cash at a 440-363 clip over the course of his career, including a 17-12 mark this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've now seen three straight meetings between these two N.L. West rivals stay 'under' the total including the first two contests in this series. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday, noting you would have to go back to the end of the 2021 season and the beginning of 2022 to find the last time we saw an 'under' streak lasting more than two games in this matchup. Of note, Giants starter Sean Manaea has seen two of his last six trips to the hill result in BOTH teams scoring double-digit runs. The 'under' cashed in his most recent outing against the Dodgers but you would have to go back to last September to find the last time he recorded 'under' results in consecutive starts. The Padres have been a better offensive club on the road this season where they average 5.0 runs per game but they've also allowed 0.4 runs per game above their season average away from home, good for an average total of 9.5 runs. Finally, the possibility of late offensive production is certainly in play with the Padres bullpen having recorded a 5.02 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games and the Giants 'pen severely overworked on the campaign, approaching 700 total innings and having posted a 6.18 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While I do like the Mets to avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale in Philadelphia, I think they're going to have a hard time holding down the Phillies offense. New York starter Jose Butto has only faced the Phillies once previously but made quite an impression, and not in a good way. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 7-for-13 off of him. Alec Bohm is a perfect 3-for-3 with a pair of home runs. Behind Butto is a worn out Mets bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 7th. It's a similar story for Philadelphia's relief corps as the Phils haven't been idle since September 7th either. Christopher Sanchez will get the start for Philadelphia. Mets hitters have gone 8-for-23 off of him with three extra-base hits. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 1/3 innings. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-20-23 | Tigers v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers took the second game of this series by a 3-2 score. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring contest on Wednesday as Detroit sends Reese Olson to the hill against Bobby Miller in a matchup of rookie starting pitchers. Olson has admittedly pitched well over his last several starts. Keep in mind, three of his last four outings have come at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit. He owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season with the 'over' cashing in four of his six starts. Olson did shut out the White Sox over seven innings in his most recent road start but there were certainly some smoke and mirrors involved as he struck out just one batter in that contest. Bobby Miller has surpassed the 100-inning mark on the season and has shown signs of running out of steam, allowing eight earned runs in 12 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) here after laboring through his last start in Seattle (three earned runs on six hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings). The Tigers have proven to be a scrappy bunch this season, entering Wednesday's action just 11 games under .500 (11-7 over their last 18 games). I do think they have a realistic shot at avoiding the series sweep here but the Dodgers are as consistent as it gets offensively, particularly at home and they'll undoubtedly inflict some damage against a rookie starting pitcher, not to mention a Tigers bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 11th. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-19-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While Nathan Eovaldi would like nothing more than to gain an ounce of 'revenge' against his former club after dropping a 10-6 decision in Boston the last time he faced them in July, he brings awful form into this outing. Eovaldi has made three starts since returning from a lengthy stint on the injured list and they haven't gone well (or lasted long). In those three trips to the hill he has posted a lofty 7.73 ERA and 2.43 WHIP. He has faced 37 batters over that stretch, allowing 17 of them to reach base. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. He's coming off a masterful six-inning shutout performance against the Yankees last time out. With that said, he's just one start removed from giving up nine earned runs over his previous 10 1/3 innings of work. He's been at his worst at night this season, recording a 5.44 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in nine starts with the 'over' cashing in six of those games. Keep in mind, the Rangers entered this series with their home games having produced an average total of 10.7 runs this season. With neither bullpen in solid form, the potential is there for late inning runs as well. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-15-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams got a much needed day off yesterday and I think we're set for an entertaining series in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The Dodgers will look to bounce back after dropping two of three games at home against the Padres, scoring just one run in their most recent setback on Wednesday. I'm confident we'll see them bust out once again at the plate here as they go up against Mariners starter George Kirby. He's had a fine sophomore campaign by all accounts but has struggled down the stretch, perhaps showing signs of wearing down having logged a career-high 165 2/3 innings. Kirby has allowed at least three earned runs and worked beyond the sixth inning only once over his last five outings. Since striking out nine in a start against the White Sox on August 23rd, he's compiled just nine strikeouts in total over his last three outings covering a span of 13 innings. You would have to go back to August 12th to find the last time he didn't allow a home run in a start. Only three current Dodgers hitters have faced Kirby. Of note, J.D. Martinez is 3-for-6 with a home run off of the right-hander. Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller gave up five earned runs over seven frames against the light-hitting Nationals in his most recent outing. That makes it three out of his last four outings that he's allowed at least four earned runs. He did strike out a season high eight batters in that start but also allowed nine of the 30 batters he faced to reach base. The two bullpens are in fine shape after being idle yesterday but I'm willing to bet on the two offenses bouncing back and we're working with a reasonably low total given the fact that Dodgers road games have averaged a whopping 10.9 total runs this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-08-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I think we see a strong bounce-back performance from both offenses in this matchup on Friday after the Mariners secured a 1-0 victory last night. Seattle starter George Kirby has had a fine sophomore season but he appears to be hitting the wall late in the campaign. Note that he's worked a career-high 159 1/3 innings and things won't get any easier as he faces a tough opponent in the Rays on Friday and does so on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. Kirby checks in having allowed 13 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of just 18 1/3 innings. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has been involved in a ton of nail-biters lately and entered last night's action with a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven games. Tampa Bay will send Taj Bradley to the hill. The rookie owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in just shy of 80 innings of work this season. His command issues have been glaring over his last two starts as he's issued nine walks in just 8 1/3 innings. Averaging less than five innings per start this season, expect plenty of pressure to be on the Rays bullpen once again here, noting it is approaching 600 relief innings on the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-05-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams produced a whopping 26 runs in Monday's series-opener with the Twins doing much of the heavy-lifting in a 20-run outburst. Here, I expect nothing of the sort as Minnesota hands the ball to Sonny Gray against Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. We saw this same starting pitching matchup just last week with Cleveland prevailing by a 5-2 score. Noting that Gray has allowed one earned run or less in three of his last four starts and has worked at least six innings in an incredible 11 of his last 12 outings, I like his chances of keeping the Guardians bats at bay on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Cleveland entered this series averaging just 3.6 runs per game at Progressive Field this season. Bibee has impressed in his rookie campaign. He's been particularly tough at home where he has logged a 2.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 58 innings of work. While the Twins bats have been hot over the last few games, they entered last night's action averaging just 4.2 runs per game on the road this season. While things didn't go particularly well for either bullpen last night, both relief corps did enter this series in solid form with Twins relievers combining to post a 2.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games while the Guardians 'pen checked in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the same stretch. It's worth noting that you would have to go back 18 meetings - to September of last year - to find the last time these two teams posted consecutive 'over' results in this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-03-23 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have taken the first three games of this series and while I do think the Dodgers can rise up and avoid the sweep on Sunday, I think they're in for a battle. Charlie Morton will get the call for the visiting Braves. The Dodgers are certainly familiar with the right-hander. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and David Peralta in particular have worn Morton out over the course of his career, combining to go 29-for-70 with 11 extra-base hits off of him. Morton has pitched exceptionally well over his last four starts but those came against the Mets (twice), Yankees and Rockies. He'll be taking a step up in class here. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 24th and entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. That sets this up as a 'revenge game' of sorts for the Braves after Miller held them to one earned run over five innings in an 8-1 victory in his first career big league start back in May. Miller has hit the rookie wall a little bit lately, allowing eight earned runs over his last two starts and topping out at five strikeouts in his last five outings. While the Los Angeles bullpen had held up well prior to last night's extra innings defeat, it hasn't had a day off since August 21st and is well north of the 525-inning mark on the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-30-23 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While I do expect the Royals slumping bats to wake up in Wednesday's series finale against the Pirates, I'm not convinced they can keep Pittsburgh at bay with a fading pitching staff. Last night, Kansas City got another outstanding start from Cole Ragans - one of the few bright spots in its starting rotation - but it wasn't enough as the Pirates plated six runs across the eighth and ninth innings in an eventual 6-3 victory. Angel Zerpa will be tasked with silencing the Buccos on Wednesday. He sports a 6.04 FIP and 1.56 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings pitched this season. The alarming thing is, he isn't even the biggest issue the Royals are facing. Their bullpen has been overworked and has posted an ugly 7.01 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. On the season, Royals relievers have combined to convert only five saves while blowing 13 here at home. Andre Jackson will get another turn in the starting rotation for the Pirates. He's been better since coming over to Pittsburgh from the Dodgers but that's not saying much as he has still allowed five earned runs on nine hits while striking out 11 and walking five in eight innings of work across two starts. My bigger concern here is the Pirates bullpen. Note that Pittsburgh hasn't had a day off since August 17th and its 'pen has worked 34 innings over the last seven games alone, recording a 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-29-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Merrill Kelly will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. He turned in one of his best outings of the season last week as he tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball, striking out 12 against the Reds. Note that Kelly has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. On the season, he's lowered his FIP to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.13. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. His last start was cut short by rain in Cleveland. You would have to go back 10 starts to find the last time he allowed more than two earned runs. The veteran left-hander owns a terrific 3.76 FIP and 1.02 WHIP on the campaign. While the D'Backs bullpen has struggled, I do think Kelly can eat enough innings that they're not a major factor in this one. Meanwhile, the Dodgers 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-27-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs took the third game of this series by a 10-6 score last night. I look for a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. Javier Assad will take the ball for Chicago. He has been anything but dominant this season, logging a 4.67 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, which is about on par for his career numbers, yet the Cubs have managed to win each of his last four starts. Note that while only four current Pirates hitters have faced Assad before, they've gone a combined 3-for-6 with both Connor Joe and Jack Suwinski homering off of the right-hander. Bailey Falter will counter for Pittsburgh. He's been quietly effective since returning to the starting rotation earlier this month with the Pirates winning two of his three starts. With that being said, he still owns a 5.03 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season and will be up against a Cubs team that averages 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Current Cubs hitters are a combined 9-for-21 against Falter with four extra base hits and only four strikeouts. Neither bullpen has been all that effective lately with the Pirates in particular being overworked, logging a collective 38 2/3 innings over the last seven games. Also note that neither team has had a day off since August 17th, putting even more pressure on the bullpens at this late stage of the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw this same pitching matchup last Saturday in Arizona as Zac Gallen stymied the Padres bats over six innings in a 3-0 Diamondbacks victory. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. Gallen has now held the Padres scoreless over his last two starts against them, covering a span of 13 innings. Both of those starts came in Arizona, however. The last time he faced them at Petco Park, back in early April, he was tagged for five runs (four of them earned) over six innings of work. A number of current Padres hitters have had success against Gallen. Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all homered off of him in the past (among others). The trio of Bogaerts, Machado and Tatis Jr. have gone a combined 14-of-43 (.326) with eight extra-base hits off of Gallen. It's a similar story with Padres veteran left-hander Rich Hill against the D'Backs. Current Arizona hitters have gone a combined 17-of-56 (.304) with eight extra-base hits off of Hill. In two starts since joining San Diego, Hill has logged an awful 8.79 FIP and 2.05 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. That's obviously a very small sample size but on the season, Hill owns a less than impressive 4.66 FIP and 1.51 WHIP as well. Entering yesterday's action, the two bullpens had been struggling with the D'Backs relief corps logging a collective 5.16 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games and the Padres 'pen posting a 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. In division games this season, the San Diego bullpen has recorded a 5.26 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with only 10 saves converted and nine blown. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-23 | Yankees v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday, both in losing efforts. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Yankees send Clarke Schmidt to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Schmidt got hit hard in April but has since turned things around, allowing three earned runs or less in an incredible 14 straight starts. He has lowered his FIP to 4.28 and his WHIP to 1.29 over that stretch. Remember, Schmidt worked 57 2/3 innings for the Yanks last season, posting a 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP so we know what he's capable of. Max Fried was terrific in his first outing back from the I.L. but proceeded to struggle last time out. His overall numbers this season are incredible as he has logged a 2.60 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, albeit in just 36 innings of work. Fried finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.70 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen will be looking to bounce back after imploding in yesterday's wild 8-7 defeat. Entering that contest, New York's relief corps had posted a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only five blown on the road this season. Atlanta's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 37 saves converted and 18 blown this season. While Atlanta's series finale against the Mets did find its way 'over' the total last night, we didn't see consecutive 'over' results in that four-game series (on the heels of a six-game 'over' streak). Meanwhile, the Yankees have recorded consecutive 'over' results just once since July 31st. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-11-23 | Brewers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent contests. In the White Sox case, they're coming off a nine-run outburst against the Yankees. To put things in perspective, they had plated just 11 runs combined over their previous three contests. Here, they'll face Brewers starter Corbin Burnes. He's made seven starts since the beginning of July, working at least six innings in all seven of those contests while allowing 2, 2, 0, 0, 2, 2 and 2 earned runs. His counterpart on Friday will be Michael Kopech. He hasn't been nearly as steady as Burnes but will have the benefit of facing a Brewers lineup that I feel ranks among the weakest in baseball and averages just 4.1 runs per game on the road this season. Behind Kopech is a White Sox bullpen that has actually turned things around lately, logging a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games. On that note, the Brewers 'pen has posted a 3.33 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the same stretch and has converted 21 saves while blowing only nine on the road this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-07-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Rangers are coming off a shutout victory against the Marlins yesterday as they wrapped up a series sweep in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Rangers coming off a shutout win this season with those contests totalling an average of 15.3 runs. Dane Dunning will take the ball for Texas on Monday. He's coming off a masterful performance against the White Sox, allowing just one earned run while striking out 11 over 7 2/3 innings. The issue I see here is that Dunning will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). His strikeouts have actually been down this year as he's averaging just 6.2 per nine innings and has logged a rather pedestrian 4.13 FIP. In his three previous starts here in Oakland, the A's have plated 6, 3 and 6 runs. Ken Waldichuk will get another turn in the starting rotation for Oakland. He's quite simply been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, posting a 5.64 FIP and 1.74 WHIP in 88 1/3 innings of work. The Rangers have seen him twice since the start of last season, plating eight earned runs in 10 innings. While Texas' bullpen has been sharp lately, it still checks in having converted only seven saves while blowing nine on the road this season, recording a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP along the way. Meanwhile, the A's relief corps has posted an inflated 6.12 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games and have converted only eight saves while blowing 10 at home this season (entering yesterday's contest). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-29-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night, despite a high-scoring start as the Mariners jumped ahead 4-0 in the first frame and cruised to a 5-2 victory. I think we'll see the Diamondbacks bounce back and help the total along on Saturday as they send Brandon Pfaadt to the hill against Bryan Woo. Pfaadt is a highly-touted prospect and has enjoyed some success at the minor league level. That hasn't translated to success in the majors, however, as he checks in sporting a 7.64 FIP and 1.64 WHIP in seven starts spanning 31 2/3 innings. He hasn't been able to keep the ball in the yard, allowing a whopping 3.4 home runs per nine innings. It's been a similar story for Mariners starter Bryan Woo lately. He's been tagged for four home runs in his last two outings. It seems the book may be out on Woo following a solid stretch as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 12 hits and four walks over his last two starts covering a span of 9 1/3 innings. Neither bullpen has been all that impressive. In the case of the D'Backs, their 'pen has logged an 8.37 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-27-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Wednesday, albeit with much different outcomes as the Guardians defeated the Royals 8-3 while the White Sox blew a big lead in a 10-7 loss to the Cubs. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Cleveland sends impressive rookie Tanner Bibee to the hill against Chicago's ace Dylan Cease. Bibee checks in sporting a 3.52 FIP and 1.19 WHIP on the season, allowing just 103-of-334 batters he has faced to reach base. After a bit of a rocky start to his big league career he has been baffling opposing hitters lately, giving up just 17 hits and one home run over his last five starts spanning 29 2/3 innings of work. Dylan Cease has been similarly effectively lately. He has held his last two opponents to just two earned runs on six hits over 11 innings. Over his last nine outings he has allowed only 43 hits and four home runs in 51 innings of work. Going back to 2021, Cease has been incredibly consistent recording FIP's of 3.41, 3.10 and 3.63 so far in 2023. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately, or this season for that matter. With that being said, both of tonight's starters have shown the ability to work effectively deep into ball games (Bibee has lasted at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts and Cease has done so in eight of his last nine outings), somewhat mitigating that concern. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While the Giants have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total following an 11-10 slugfest in Cincinnati on Tuesday, the Nationals check in riding a six-game 'over' streak. I expect the latter to continue as San Francisco sends Alex Wood to the hill against Jake Irvin of the Nationals on Friday. Take a look up and down the Nats' lineup right now and you'll see a pretty dangerous group of hitters. I was of the opinion that Washington had a lineup built for Nationals Park entering this season but it hasn't worked out that way as the Nats' have actually produced far more offense on the road. With that being said, they do average 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching and they'll have the opportunity to face soft-tossing southpaw Alex Wood on Friday. Wood checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP on the season, allowing a whopping 88-of-243 batters he has faced to reach base. He's had a tough time settling in due to injuries and here will be starting on just four days' rest after making his first start since June last Sunday. Wood isn't fooling many opposing hitters this season and has topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts. Jake Irvin remains in the Nats' starting rotation out of necessity only as he has logged a 5.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Like Wood, Irvin has put far too many men on base, allowing 98-of-276 batters he has faced aboard. Perhaps a bigger issue for Washington right now is its sagging bullpen. Nationals relievers have combined to record an 11.92 ERA and 2.18 WHIP over the last seven games and are down a key arm in closer Hunter Harvey. While the Giants 'pen has held up well lately, it hasn't had a day off since the All-Star break and certainly falls in the 'overworked' category having logged well north of 400 innings collectively this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-18-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Mariners took the series-opener by a 7-6 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as Minnesota hands the ball to Bailey Ober against impressive rookie Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Ober has given up just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts with those two contests totalling just one and four runs. He owns a terrific 3.39 FIP and 0.97 WHIP at the big league level this season, picking up right where he left off following an early stint in the minors where he baffled opposing hitters. Ober has allowed just 83 of the 321 batters he has faced to reach base. Bryan Woo has been similarly difficult to reach base against, albeit with a smaller sample size to consider. He has allowed only 37-of-141 batters to reach base, logging a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work. I like the way both bullpens are set up, noting that Twins relievers have worked a very reasonable 310 innings combined this season, posting a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while the Mariners 'pen has logged only 303 2/3 innings while recording a 3.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (all numbers entering last night's action). Of course, the All-Star break isn't far in the rear-view mirror, helping both relief corps check in reasonably fresh this week. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-15-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as Boston rolled to an 8-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as the Red Sox send James Paxton to the hill against Marcus Stroman of the Cubs. Paxton is having a renaissance year of sorts, logging a 3.66 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 56 innings of work (he had pitched just 1 1/3 innings over the last two seasons combined). Behind Paxton is a Red Sox bullpen that certainly needed the break as it had worked north of 40 innings collectively over the previous seven games. Still, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. Marcus Stroman struggled in his last few starts prior to the break but has still posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.09 WHIP on the campaign. I look for him to bounce back here noting that he has recorded a terrific 2.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. The Cubs bullpen had logged a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these division rivals last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Connor Seabold will inexplicably get another turn in the Rockies starting rotation. He enters this start sporting a 5.98 FIP and 1.47 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work this season. Seabold remains in the Rockies rotation out of necessity only and he's not likely to get a lot of support from the Colorado bullpen, noting that it has been as overworked as any relief corps in baseball this season, logging a collective 359 2/3 innings while posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Over the last seven games those numbers rise to 6.67 and 1.59, respectively. Ryan Walker will get the start in an 'opener' role for the Giants. He's fared well in that role this season. But again, we're only talking about a cameo appearance. Like the Rockies relief corps, the Giants 'pen has also been overworked this season, logging north of 370 collective innings. San Francisco's relievers have held up reasonably well, but not so much lately as they've recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants offense in particular has struggled lately but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for both lineups on what should be a pleasant afternoon for hitters on Saturday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 5-2 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Pirates send Luis Ortiz against impressive Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan. Ortiz had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season and pitched relatively well. In extended work this year, that hasn't been the case as he has logged a 5.68 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 50 1/3 innings. While Ortiz is just one start removed from allowing only one earned run against the Marlins, performances like that have been few and far between. In his most recent outing, Ortiz labored through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres, allowing four earned runs on six hits, including two home runs, and three walks. He's giving up a whopping 10.4 hits and 4.5 walks per nine innings this season and that's a recipe for disaster against a loaded Dodgers lineup. To illustrate just how badly Ortiz has struggled, 84 of the 227 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Behind Ortiz is a Pirates bullpen that has been effective lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Emmet Sheehan will get his fourth career big league start for the Dodgers. Of note, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for the first time on Tuesday. Sheehan has pitched well but has also had some good fortune, allowing just 5.3 hits per nine innings in a small sample size of just 17 innings. He wasn't particularly sharp in his most recent start in Colorado but his saving grace was the fact that he didn't issue a single walk (he allowed seven hits and three earned runs while striking out only five over five innings). Keep in mind, even at the Double-A level earlier this season, Sheehan issued an average of 3.9 walks per nine innings and he had handed out four free passes in his first 12 innings of work with the Dodgers this year. Los Angeles' bullpen has been overworked this season, logging a collective 318 2/3 innings (entering last night's contest). Dodgers relievers entered this series having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only nine saves converted and six blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open an Interleague series in Cleveland on Monday. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He went through a bit of a rough stretch in early June but has since figured it out again, allowing just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three outings. The 'under' has incredibly cashed in 10 of his last 11 trips to the hill. Elder enters this start sporting a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP on the season which is right in line with his career big league numbers. Rookie Gavin Williams will counter for Cleveland. He apparently shook off the nerves we saw in his first big league outing as he bounced back to hold the Royals to just one hit over seven shutout innings last time out. While we are talking about a small sample size, he has allowed just 10-of-46 batters he has faced to reach base. Keep in mind, Williams got the call to the bigs after logging a 2.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings spread across Double and Triple-A earlier this season. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape at this stage of the season with neither having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. The Braves 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 1.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Guardians relief corps had a bit of a shaky weekend in Chicago, it does own a stellar 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-27-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in Queens on Tuesday as the Brewers and Mets continue their four-game series. Milwaukee will give the start to veteran Julio Teheran. He's burst back on the scene recording a 1.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings of work this season. I simply wonder how long he can keep it up. Note that the last time we saw Teheran pitch a full big league season was in 2019 when he logged a 4.66 FIP and 1.32 WHIP with the Braves. In limited work in 2020 and 2021, Teheran recorded an 8.62 and 6.37 FIP, respectively. At the minor league level this year, Teheran had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings with the Padres Triple-A affiliate. Behind Teheran is a Brewers bullpen that has pitched well lately but still checks in sporting a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Peterson makes his return to the Mets starting rotation, starting a MLB game for the first time in over a month. Keep in mind, he has struggled to the tune of a 4.78 FIP and 1.74 WHIP at the big league level this season. He hasn't fared much better in the minors, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings at Triple-A. The Brewers don't figure to be a favorable opponent for Peterson to return against, noting they've lit him up to the tune of nine earned runs in eight innings in two games against him going back to last year. The Mets bullpen entered this series having recorded a collective 4.24 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels scored a whopping 25 runs in Saturday's win over the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field but it was right back to the doldrums on Sunday as they plated only three runs, losing for the fifth time in their last six games, including a pair of shutout losses. It's been a similar struggle for the White Sox offense as they've scored four runs or less in eight of their last 10 games overall. Dylan Cease will get the start for Chicago on Monday. After a shaky start to the season, he's settled down, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings. Cease owns a 3.99 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season - rather pedestrian numbers to be sure - however, those numbers have been trending doward. Cease faced the Angels once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He'll have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time in his career and comes in hot, having allowed just two earned runs in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts. What I like about Detmers is the fact that he's yet to be asked to pitch on short rest (four days) this season. He checks in sporting a career-best 3.27 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. As far as the bullpens go, the White Sox relief corps has pitched much better lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Angels 'pen has struggled lately, it still went into Sunday's action with a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, not to mention 27 converted saves and only 13 blown. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-24-23 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Ronel Blanco will take the ball for the visiting Astros. While he's posted terrific minor league numbers for stretches over the course of his career, that hasn't translated to success at the big league level. Last season, Blanco recorded a 5.32 FIP and 1.90 WHIP in very limited work with the Astros, pitching just 6 1/3 innings. So far this season, he's logged 29 innings with the big club, posting a 5.58 FIP and 1.69 WHIP. Of the 132 batters he has faced, 50 have reached base. All told, Blanco has allowed 10.4 hits and 5.0 walks per nine innings at the major league level. Behind Blanco is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a collective 6.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for Los Angeles. After a red hot start to the campaign, he was brought back to Earth against the Giants last time out, yielding seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. I can't help but think more regression is coming for Miller, noting that he has held opponents to only 6.0 hits and 0.3 home runs per nine innings this season. At the Triple-A level earlier this season, Miller posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings, allowing twice as many home runs (2) in around half the number of innings that he has at the major league level. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's game with a collective 6.07 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven contests with only six converted saves and six blown. The Astros offense has been hit-or-miss lately but has shown a fairly strong bounce-back pattern lately, scoring 3, 7, 1, 4, 10 and 2 runs over their last six games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-16-23 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Two unheralded starters will match up as the Reds and Astros do battle in the opener of their three-game series on Friday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Andrew Abbott has battled command issues but has still yet to allow an earned run in his first two big league starts, logging 11 2/3 innings of six-hit ball. Abbott has posted a 3.36 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in those two outings, seemingly picking up where he left off after recording a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 54 innings of work at the minor league level. It's worth mentioning that the Astros have walked only 212 times as a team this season, among the lowest totals in the majors. Behind Abbott is a Reds bullpen that enjoyed an off day on Thursday and has been better than expected this season, recording a collective 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. On the road, Cincinnati has converted 14 saves while blowing only five. J.P. France will take the ball for Houston. He's had an up-and-down start to his big league career and is coming off an outing in which he issued an uncharacteristic six walks against the Guardians. With that said, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. The Reds just got finished beating up on one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball in Kansas City but should find the going a little tougher in Houston. Note that the Astros bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 3.25 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only seven blown. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen plenty of offense in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday as the Angels send Reid Detmers to the mound against Andrew Heaney of the Rangers. Detmers has been reasonably effective for the Halos so far this season, logging a 3.40 FIP, however he hasn't shown the ability to work deep into games thanks in large part to a lofty 1.51 WHIP. On three previous occasions he has come off a team victory in his most recent start and in those three outings he allowed 11 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Detmers faced the Rangers once previously this season, allowing three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings in a 10-1 home defeat. While much has been made of the overworked and undermanned nature of the Rangers bullpen, the Angels 'pen has perhaps labored even more lately, logging a collective 30.0 innings over the last seven games and no having been afforded a day off since June 5th. Andrew Heaney has posted fairly typical numbers so far this season but has struggled to settle in here at Globe Life Field, posting a 5.67 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven home outings. His 4.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP certainly leave something to be desired and I suspect he'll have his hands full with a red hot Angels offense that has produced just shy of 6.0 runs per game over the last week. The Rangers bullpen allowed the Halos to pull away in the ninth inning last night. Their relief corps got off to a terrific start this season but have now seen their collective ERA rise to 4.57 and their FIP to 1.26. On the season, Texas has only converted 12 saves while blowing 10. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-13-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair to open this series last night as the Angels rallied for a 9-6 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Jaime Barria will get the start for the visiting Angels. He's made 14 appearances but only three starts for the Halos this season and has pitched well, logging a 3.04 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in 39 innings of work. Barria should be happy to see the Rangers in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 previous starts against them. The Angels bullpen continues to impress. Last night, after digging an early 5-1 hole, Los Angeles' pitching staff hung tough and ultimately limited the Rangers to only one run over the final nine innings. The Halos relief corps entered last night's contest sporting a collective 0.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. It sounds like the Rangers are leaning toward giving Cody Bradford his third big league start on Tuesday (with Jon Gray sidelined due to a blister). The results have been mixed in Bradford's first two starts but he did shake off the nerves to hold the Orioles to only two earned runs over five innings last time out. He had made 10 starts previously at the Triple-A level, recording a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Rangers bullpen has been good but not great this season but did enter Monday's action sporting a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings pitched at home and has been 'underworked' in the big picture at least, logging a combined 197 innings this season (it did eclipse the 200-inning mark in last night's marathon). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's saw their five-game 'over' streak come to an end in last night's series-opener in Milwaukee but Oakland did manage to stun the Brewers for its third straight victory. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Saturday as the A's hand the ball to Paul Blackburn against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Blackburn has posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.67 WHIP through two starts, spanning nine innings of work. Of the 42 batters he has faced, 15 have reached base. More concerning is the fact that Blackburn had struggled mightily at the Triple-A level, logging a 7.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in six outings covering a span of 18 innings. Of the 90 batters he faced in the minors, 39 managed to reach base. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that has posted a collective 6.40 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road this season, blowing five saves while converting only four (entering last night's action). Veteran Julio Teheran has made two big league starts this season and has pitched surprisingly well, recording a 3.97 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. That's in stark contrast to his performance at the Triple-A level where he had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in the Padres organization. The A's have been consistently applying pressure on opposing pitching staffs over the last week, plating 5, 4, 11, 9 and 5 runs over their last five contests. As bad as they've been overall this season, they are still averaging just north of 4.0 runs per game away from home. They may be catching the Brewers bullpen at the right time as Milwaukee relievers have combined to post a 5.56 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's action). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams met for a three-game series in Arizona back in early May and two of those contests flew 'over' the total, reaching 15 and 17 runs. I'm anticipating a similarly high-scoring start to this series in Washington on Tuesday. Tommy Henry will take the ball for the visiting Diamondbacks. He had his best outing of the young season last time out as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies. That was at home though. Henry has logged a 5.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts. For the season, Henry sports a 5.21 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 52-of-167 batters he has faced to reach base. That coming after he posted a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 big league innings last year. Jake Irvin will counter for Washington on Tuesday. He owns a 5.80 FIP and 1.63 WHIP on the season and has worked beyond the fifth inning only once in six starts so far. That doesn't bode well as the Nationals bullpen has recorded a collective 6.65 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Washington has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight here at home. Going back to Irvin, he has faced 124 batters with 47 of them managing to reach base. Arizona is capable of applying plenty of pressure on opposing pitchers when reaching base, having already racked up 55 stolen bases this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night and the Guardians posted their fourth straight 'under' result in a 4-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the hill for his 11th start of the season. He checks in sporting a 4.88 FIP and 1.59 WHIP, having allowed a whopping 85-of-223 batters he has faced to reach base. I don't need to tell you that spells trouble as he prepares to face a Guardians lineup that, while struggling to hit for the most part, does generally apply a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cards bullpen behind Flaherty is as overworked as it gets having not had a day off since May 11th, entering last night's action with a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Tanner Bibee will get the start for Cleveland. His overall numbers this season are solid but he has proven vulnerable at times. He's just two starts removed from allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers for example. He was fortunate to give up only two earned runs over six innings against the Mets last time out as he was tagged for seven hits and issued four walks (while striking out only three). The Cards bats were relatively quiet last night but we know they're capable of breaking out, noting that they've scored eight runs or more four times since May 15th. The Guardians bullpen has posted terrific numbers overall but used a number of key arms last night and has blown 11 saves to date (and nearly blew another last night). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-25-23 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The wind was blowing in at Wrigley Field last night and as a result we saw an exceptionally low total, not to mention another 'under' result, the second straight to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale, however. New York will give the start to Carlos Carrasco. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Carrasco checks in sporting a 6.97 FIP and 1.55 WHIP through only four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings due to a stint on the I.L. He did pitch reasonably well in two rehab appearances at the minor league level but that was at Double-A Binghamton. Here in the bigs he has allowed 32-of-86 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs. Carrasco did pitch six shutout innings in his lone start against the Cubs last year but I think we can agree that he was a much different pitcher a year ago than he is now. Kyle Hendricks will get his first start of the season for the Cubs. He's had extended work at the minor league (Triple-A) level and hasn't looked particularly good, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 28-of-85 batters he has faced to reach base including a pair of home runs in 20 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, Hendricks has struggled at the big league level over the last two seasons, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 2021 and a 4.82 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 2022. The Mets entered last night's action averaging north of 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. I don't expect either of tonight's starters to work deep into this game and that should open the door for some late runs, noting that the two bullpens have really struggled lately. New York's relief corps checks in sporting a collective 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action) while the Cubs 'pen has posted a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to last night's contest). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-23-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of the same starting pitching matchup we saw last Thursday - a game the Guardians won by a score of 3-1. Both starters worked their way into and out of trouble on a number of occasions early in that contest and it ultimately turned out to be a low-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold here as both Dylan Cease and Logan Allen start on short rest (four days). In the case of Cease, he'll be starting on four days' rest for a fourth consecutive turn in the rotation. He hasn't come close to reaching the heights he saw in the 2022 campaign (he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.20 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Of the 237 batters he has faced, 79 have reached base. Since striking out 18 in his first two outings this season, Cease has topped out at just six K's over his last eight trips to the hill. Allen will be making his first career big league start on short rest. He struck out eight in each of his first two starts this season but has K'd only 13 in his last three outings combined, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. Not helping matters is the fact that White Sox hitters just saw him (and had some success with seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings) less than a week ago - the first time he'll face an opponent for a second time in his big league career. Last week, I noted that the two bullpens have been a mixed-bag this season, combining to blow 17 saves at the time. Well, they've gone on to blow two more saves since then, so that's 19 blown saves on the campaign between the two 'pens. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Orioles and Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Orioles offense kept rolling along last night, putting up six runs in a lopsided victory thanks to tacking on a couple of late runs against a banged-up Blue Jays bullpen. In fact, both bullpens are probably a little weary right now with neither team having had a day off since May 11th. The O's 'pen in particular has been overworked this season, logging 167 2/3 innings collectively. It has admittedly held up well but figures to be pressed into action early on Saturday noting that starter Grayson Rodriguez has yet to last six innings in a start in his big league career. Speaking of Rodriguez, he checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.73 WHIP and will start on short rest (four days) for the fourth time already this season. He hasn't fared well in his three previous outings on short rest, allowing 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Of the 170 batters Rodriguez has faced this season, 64 have reached base including nine home runs in 37 innings. Alek Manoah has been an abject disaster for the Blue Jays so far this season. To make matters worse, like Rodriguez, he'll be starting on short rest here. Manoah owns a 6.45 FIP and 1.80 WHIP and has allowed a whopping 85-of-214 batters to reach base. The Orioles are capable of applying significant pressure on the right-hander, noting they're among the league leaders in stolen bases with 42. In fact, they've averaging 5.7 runs per game away from home. With the Jays bullpen still sorely missing Zach Pop and Adam Cimber and having logged 4 1/3 innings, using five different relievers, last night, I look for plenty of offense from start to finish in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-16-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring series-opener between these former N.L. Central rivals last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. While Cubs starter Justin Steele saw his last start fly 'over' the total in a 10-4 Cubs rout of the Cardinals. We'll continue to smash the 'under' button with Steele on the hill, however, noting that he has logged a 3.22 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 53-of-192 batters he has faced to reach base this season. That coming on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which Steele impressively posted a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts spanning 119 innings of work. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.95 WHIP last year yet was snubbed in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. So far this season, Javier has posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He has struck out 35 batters over his last four outings. It's also worth noting that both of tonight's starters will be taking the ball on full rest (five days). While the Cubs bullpen has wobbled a bit lately, it still owns a collective 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has posted a terrific 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 2.53 and 0.84 respectively over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. This matchup will feature two underrated starting pitchers in Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs and Joe Ryan of the Twins. While last night's series-opener snuck 'over' the total, I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Wesneski will start on full (five days) rest for the first time in his last five outings. He's pitched well nonetheless, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings of work over his last three starts. After getting off to a shaky start that included six walks and three home runs allowed in his first two outings this season (covering a span of just six innings), Wesneski has really settled down and checks in having allowed 44-of-145 batters he has faced to reach base. The Twins have had to scratch and claw for seemingly every run lately, scoring 2, 3, 0, 1, 4, 5 and 2 runs over their last seven contests. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been lights out in the early going this season and doesn't get enough credit for how well he has pitched over the course of his three-year big league career. Ryan owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.84 WHIP in seven starts spanning 44 innings this season. Only 38-of-169 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Both bullpens have held up reasonably well so far this season with the Cubs relief corps' in particular shining lately to the tune of a collective 1.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games. They did use two key relievers in Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. in last night's game but both have proven capable of working back-to-back games this season. The Twins 'pen has logged a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season and they kept two key relief arms in Jhoan Duran and closer Jorge Lopez idle last night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-08-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday and I expect more of the same as they open a three-game series in San Francisco on Monday. Jake Irvin will get the start for the visiting Nationals. He's in the Washington starting rotation due to necessity only at this point. In his first big league start he gave up just one earned run on two hits over 4 1/3 innings but did walk four batters while hitting another with a pitch (and only struck out three). Note that in five starts at the Triple-A level this season, Irvin allowed 36-of-98 batters he faced to reach base and was tagged for three home runs in 22 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday will be Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander probably hasn't been quite as good as his sparkling 2.18 ERA would indicate, logging a 3.38 FIP. He does own an impressive 0.82 WHIP as he has issued just three walks in 38 innings of work. Some regression is almost a certainty at this point and here he'll face a Nationals club that has been at its best on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Washington just finished a series in Arizona in which it scored 17 runs across three games. Also note that the Nats scored 28 runs on 45 hits in a three-game series here in San Francisco last year. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. Nationals relievers have combined to post a 4.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen has been among the worst in baseball, recording a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with nine saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This matchup screams 'pitcher's duel' on paper with the Dodgers handing the ball to their ace Julio Urias against Joe Musgrove on Sunday. We'll go the other way, however, as neither starter has been able to find their form - at least not consistently - in the early going this season. Of course, in Joe Musgrove's defense, he's only made two starts since returning from injury. Neither outing went well, however, as he has logged an 8.16 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings of work, allowing 15-of-39 batters to reach base including four home runs allowed. Concerning is the fact that he also struggled in a pair of minor league starts, allowing 15-of-43 batters to reach base. The Dodgers saw Musgrove four times last season, scoring nine earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. Dodgers starter Julio Urias didn't have a good Spring, or World Baseball Classic for that matter, and has struggled to find any sort of consistency so far this season. Urias checks in sporting a 4.40 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing 45-of-160 batters he has faced to reach base. While he is coming off one of his best outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings against the slumping Phillies, he'll now be starting on short rest (four days) for the second straight outing - the first time he's done that since last season (June 29th and July 4th). Neither bullpen has been overly impressive in the early going this season. The Dodgers relief corps entered Saturday's action sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while the Padres 'pen had logged a 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Needless to say, both lineups have the ability to put a lot of pressure on opposing pitching staffs and after a couple of low-scoring games to open this series, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter Friday's series-opener riding 'over' streaks with the Red Sox having seen each of their last four games (all against the Blue Jays) sail 'over' the total and the Phillies coming off a three-game set against the Dodgers in which all three contests went 'over' the total as well. I expect a similar story to unfold on Friday. One week ago tonight the Red Sox put plenty of pressure on Guardians ace Shane Bieber but couldn't break through in a 5-2 defeat. Since then, they've exploded for 8, 7, 6, 7, 8 and 11 runs over their last six games. Of course, they've also allowed five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 contests but we'll get to that in a moment. While the Sox draw a tough matchup in Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on Friday, I'm confident they'll be able to find continued success. After a shaky start to the season, Wheeler has turned it around over his last several starts, lowering his FIP to 2.54 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those numbers are relatively on par with what we've seen from the underrated right-hander going back to the start of 2021. With that being said, I do think he's in for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed (he's given up just one in 32 2/3 innings of work this season) and what better opponent to contribute to that than the Red Sox, who have already mashed 46 home runs this season. I'll also point out that Wheeler has yet to work beyond the sixth inning this season and just twice in his last 18 outings going back to last year, leaving the door open for a struggling Phillies bullpen to step in and make things interesting, noting it has logged a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. Chris Sale will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. He was terrific in his most recent outing against the slumping Guardians. That start came at home, where he's pitched reasonably well this season. The road has been another story as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three outings spanning 14 innings of work. Overall, Sale checks in sporting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP with 47 of the 134 batters he has faced reaching base. He'll be up against a rejuvenated Phillies lineup that just welcomed back Bryce Harper earlier this week. Harper proceeded to go 3-for-3 in his second game back. Table-setter Trea Turner enters this series on a five-game hitting streak. There's danger up and down the Philadelphia lineup and this is obviously a team built for its home ballpark, averaging 4.6 runs per game in 13 home games so far this season (compared to its season scoring average of 4.3 rpg). The Red Sox bullpen has held up well, much better than I expected at the outset of the season, logging a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, it does enter this contest having not had a day off since April 27th and we're talking about a relief corps that has been overworked, having already been called into action for 128 1/3 innings this season. I can't help but think some regression will be coming for the Boston 'pen and the Phillies lineup poses a significant challenge. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-29-23 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. With last night's 5-2 victory here at Fenway Park, the Guardians have now seen four straight and nine of their last 10 games overall stay 'under' the total. Last night's contest certainly appeared headed in the other direction before the scoring fizzled late. Keep in mind, Boston has posted an 8-3 o/u mark over its last 11 games. I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon in Beantown. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He's probably been better than his 6.50 ERA this season but that's not saying much as he still owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.83 WHIP. We can certainly expect some regression to the mean in terms of his hits allowed as he's currently giving up a ridiculous 14.5 hits per nine innings. However, that doesn't mean that a matchup with the Red Sox at Fenway Park is an ideal spot to turn things around. Note that Boston has seen Plesac once in each of the last two seasons, plating six earned runs on 11 hits in 10 innings. Brayan Bello will counter for the Red Sox. While he's had plenty of success at the minor league level going back to the start of last season, that hasn't translated over to the bigs. He owns a 6.35 FIP and 2.18 WHIP in two outings so far this season, allowing nearly half (17) of the batters he's faced (39) to reach base. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, if you're going to put runners on base against the Guardians, you're likely going to pay for it as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths, stealing 31 bases already this season. Cleveland used two of its key bullpen arms to close out last night's game in Trevor Stephan and closer Emmanuel Clase. That duo has worked in each of the last two games but did have a day off on Thursday. With setup man James Karinchak struggling lately, they could be used again on Saturday and I simply question whether they can be as effective as usual. The Red Sox bullpen has exceeded expectations this season, logging a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP entering this series. I do expect to see some regression from their relief corps moving forward, noting that we already saw some of that heading into this series with Sox relievers having posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. They're in a favorable spot as far as bullpen rest goes after Kutter Crawford finished the game with four solid innings in relief of starter Nick Pivetta last night. But again, I like the matchup for the Guardians bats regardless who the Red Sox trot out to the mound. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-24-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams met for a two-game series at Chase Field last season and the result was a pair of slugfests with each contest totalling exactly 14 runs. While I'm not sure we see that many runs on Monday, I do think the total will prove too low once again. The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller for his fifth start of the season. While he has posted a solid 3.00 ERA that doesn't tell the whole story as he owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. The hits haven't necessarily been falling in against him but that's likely to change as he has given up considerably more hits than innings pitched in each of his last two seasons. Note that of the 87 batters Keller has faced, 29 have reached base. The Diamondbacks are a team I would classify as being a handful to deal with when getting on base, racking up 20 stolen bases so far this season. Behind Keller is a Royals bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.69 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with only three saves converted and three blown. Tommy Henry gets the call-up and will make his first start of the season for the D'Backs. He found some success early last season but it seemed the book was out on him late as he allowed 18 earned runs in just 19 1/3 innings of work over his last four starts. Henry ended up logging a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in his rookie campaign. Things haven't gone swimmingly for him in the early going at the Triple-A level this season as he has recorded a 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Of the 91 batters he has faced at that level, 32 have reached base. Arizona's bullpen could be in tough in this series noting that the D'Backs haven't had a day off since April 23rd and their relief corps has struggled at the best of times, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with six saves converted and three blown. The Royals scored more runs in yesterday's game (11) than they had in their previous five contests (9), perhaps providing a spark as this three-game series begins. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. You have to figure the Padres offense is going to explode sooner rather than later after being held to a grand total of two runs over their last four games and four runs or less in nine of their last 10 contests (they scored 10 runs in the lone outlier over that stretch). I actually like the way this spot sets up for the San Diego bats. Note that the Padres will be seeing Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson for the fourth time going back to last season. That's notable when you consider Nelson will only be making his seventh career big league start. Since getting shut down by Nelson in their first look at him last September, they've plated six earned runs on nine hits over just 10 1/3 innings against him, including a 5-4 loss at home back on April 3rd. San Diego has struggled mightily at the plate at home this season but has been much more productive on the road, where it averages 4.4 runs per game (compared to its season scoring average of 3.6 rpg). Here, we'll note that Nelson will be making his first career start on short (four days') rest. Note that while he has recorded a respectable 3.71 ERA so far this season, his 4.56 FIP tells a different story. After striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings in limited work last season, Nelson has seen that number drop to 5.3 this year. Michael Wacha will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's had an up-and-down start to the campaign, most recently getting shelled by the red hot Brewers last time out. Wacha hasn't been quite as bad as his 6.06 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either, recording a 4.79 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 24 of the 70 batters he's faced to reach base. I expect him to labor against a D'Backs lineup that can wear you out. Similar to the Guardians (who we won with yesterday), Arizona has speed to burn and is aggressive on the basepaths, with 19 stolen bases so far this season. While Wacha enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts with the Red Sox in 2022, his numbers have generally been on the decline and while he's capable of giving the Padres some quality innings, there are going to be some rough outings in the mix as well, as we saw in his most recent start. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that hasn't enjoyed a day off since April 5th. San Diego relievers have logged a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and have just 19 strikeouts compared to 14 walks over their last 25 innings of work. The D'Backs bullpen has been among the worst in baseball, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with those numbers ballooning to a 6.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. It's been a week since Arizona had a day off and with a number of recent high-scoring games, its bullpen has been taxed. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I think we're dealing with a bit of 'small sample size-itis' when it comes to the two starting pitchers in Thursday's series-finale between the Red Sox and Rays. Corey Kluber probably isn't as bad as his early returns indicate while Jeffrey Springs probably isn't quite as good (although I still have him pegged as an elite starter this season). With that said, I believe this total will prove too high after we saw the last two contests in this series sail 'over' the number. Kluber had an awful season debut on Opening Day against the Orioles but did rebound to work five effective innings against the upstart Pirates last time out. Here, he'll pitch on seven days' rest and I do think that helps his cause as he faces a familiar foe in the Rays (who he pitched for last season). Springs has been lights out through his first two starts, recording a 1.40 FIP and 0.54 WHIP in 13 shutout innings. Of course, he's faced the Tigers and A's - two of the American League's weakest offensive clubs. With that being said, I do think he can keep his hot start going against a Red Sox lineup that has proven to be top-heavy to say the least. Both bullpens got touched up in last night's wild 9-7 Rays victory but had previously been solid in the early going this season. Boston entered last night's play with a collective 3.09 bullpen ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The Rays relief corps went into Wednesday's action sporting an impressive 1.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-23 | Rangers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. We saw a much higher-scoring game than expected in this matchup yesterday as the Cubs tacked on seven runs over their final three turns at bat in a 10-3 rout. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair as the Rangers send Jon Gray to the hill against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. Gray had a terrific first season with the Rangers last year, posting a 3.80 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. To say he excelled in the Spring this year would be an understatement as he logged a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. While he wasn't overly sharp in his first regular season outing, he did minimize the damage, allowing just two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. It's a similar story for Cubs offseason acquisition Taillon. He had a strong Spring, posting a 0.76 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. Last season he recorded a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP with the Yankees. In his Cubs regular season debut last week, Taillon got worked over a bit over four innings, yielding three earned runs on seven hits. I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here as he makes his second start of the campaign at Wrigley Field. While things fell apart for the Rangers bullpen yesterday, it had been one of the strongest relief corps' in baseball in the early stages of the season and I'm not sure too much will be asked of it here given Gray's ability to work deep into the game. The Cubs 'pen has logged a less than impressive collective ERA but entered yesterday's game sporting a 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-08-23 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. There's going to be a wide range of outcomes to deal with every time A's starter Shintaro Fujinami takes the ball in the early going this season. His first big league outing didn't go so well as he couldn't make it through three innings against the Angels, allowing eight earned runs on five hits and three walks. I do think he can bounce back here, however, noting that he has tremendous stuff, but needs to find some consistency. The Rays offense exploded in a blowout victory last night, paced by a Isaac Paredes grand slam. Here, they'll turn to Jeffrey Springs to start Game 2 of this series. Springs is one of the most underrated starters in baseball in my opinion. He had an incredible 2022 campaign, posting a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 135 1/3 innings. His first start this season was a gem as he allowed just one walk over six otherwise perfect innings, striking out 12 along the way. That comes on the heels of a phenomenal Spring that saw him toss 14 shutout frames. Both bullpens have been sharp in the early going this season with the A's relief corps posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and the Rays 'pen logging a 2.16 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-23 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Milwaukee at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive 'over' results to open this series and it's had everything to do with the Brewers hot bats as they've plated 19 runs while shutting out the Mets in consecutive games. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as New York sends left-hander David Peterson to the mound against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. Peterson had a fine Spring, not allowing a single earned run in in 12 innings of work. Walks were an issue as he handed out eight free passes but he put those concerns to rest in his regular season debut as he walked just one in five innings (while allowing one earned run on a solo home run) in an encouraging performance against the Marlins. Note that the Brewers have seen just one left-handed starter this season and struggled at the dish in that game against Justin Steele of the Cubs, ultimately prevailing by a 3-1 score. Burnes struggled in his first start of the campaign in Chicago but that's not all that unique as the exact same thing happened in his season debut at Wrigley Field last year. He proceeded to strike out eight batters over seven shutout innings in his next outing last April. We're talking about an elite starter that has finished at least top-seven in N.L. Cy Young voting in each of the last three seasons. I'm confident we'll see Burnes pitch well against the slumping Mets bats on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams have alternated high and low-scoring games out of the gates this season and last night we saw a slugfest as the Dodgers won by a 13-4 score. I expect a reversal of course once again here as Colorado sends veteran German Marquez to the hill against Julio Urias of the Dodgers. Marquez was sharp in his season debut, allowing just two earned runs on five hits (and no walks) in six innings against the Padres. He saw plenty of these Dodgers last season and actually fared alright, allowing exactly one earned run while lasting at least six innings in two of those five outings. I like the form Marquez has shown going back to the Spring, when he recorded a sparkling 0.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 17 innings of work. Urias was once one of the more underrated starters in baseball but perhaps not so anymore as he's finished seventh and third in National League Cy Young voting over the last two seasons and even received MVP votes in 2022. Like Marquez, Urias tossed six solid innings in his first outing this season and also had a fine Spring that included work in the World Baseball Classic. Urias worked at least six innings in four of five starts against the Rockies last season, allowing two earned runs or less in three of those outings. While the Dodgers are absolutely loaded again offensively, I think it's too early in the campaign to expect them to hang a crooked number on the board every night. Meanwhile, Colorado has plated just 36 runs in its last 14 games played here at Chavez Ravine. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-03-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We saw a low-scoring game here at Great American Ballpark on Sunday but that should be the exception rather than the rule this season. I like the way the Reds are built offensively - a perfect fit for the bandbox they play their home games in. They'll get the opportunity to tee off on Cubs journeyman starter Drew Smyly on Monday, noting that the veteran left-hander posted an ERA north of six and a 1.84 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings in the Spring, tagged for six home runs along the way. Speaking of Spring struggles, Reds starter Connor Overton was lit up to the tune of a 15.43 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings. He allowed six home runs. Again, that doesn't bode well as he prepares to make his first start of the season at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. While it's important not to put too much stock in Spring Training results, sometimes the numbers are alarming enough to cause concern and I feel that's the case here. Both lineups have shown some pop in the early going this season with the Cubs scoring 10 runs through three games against a tough Brewers pitching staff and the Reds plating 13 runs in their three-game set against the Pirates. Of note, the Cubs bullpen has already given up nine earned runs on 10 hits in just 11 innings logged. The Reds 'pen has been better, but also owns a less-than-impressive 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-02-23 | Tigers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Rays bats exploded for 12 runs in yesterday's rout of the Tigers but I think performances are likely to be few and far between for this lineup this season. While Sunday's series-finale features a pitching matchup lacking in star power, it's one with no shortage of quality nonetheless. Joey Wentz will take the ball for Detroit. He struggled to keep the ball in the yard in the Spring, leading to some inflated numbers but that was in just 14 2/3 innings of work. In his first big league season a year ago, Wentz logged 32 2/3 innings and posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.10 WHIP. Home runs weren't an issue as he allowed just 0.6 long balls per nine innings. Jeffrey Springs will counter for Tampa Bay. He improved on a stellar 2021 showing by recording a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in a career-high 135 1/3 innings of work last season. That included a start against these same Tigers in August as he didn't allow a single earned run over six frames of four-hit ball. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with Springs on the mound and the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 6.6 runs scored. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-14-22 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. PLEASE NOTE: This is the same play that we originally had when the game was scheduled for Thursday night. We missed with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Friday, however, as we work with an even lower posted total. Nestor Cortes has enjoyed a tremendous campaign. He hasn't pitched since October 1st though - nearly two weeks ago - and I can't help but feel there's nowhere to go but down after he allowed just one hit in each of his last two outings, and having not allowed a single home run over his last five starts. Note that the Guardians will be seeing Cortes for the third time this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-12 with Cleveland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent where it scored one run or less this season, with that situation producing an average total of 9.3 runs. The Guardians will hand the ball to their ace Shane Bieber after he was lights out in his lone Wild Card round start against the Rays last week. While Bieber's numbers are tremendous, I feel like every time I watch him pitch, he's laboring. I just don't find anything seems to come all that easy for the admittedly 'elite' right-hander. The Yankees will obviously make opposing pitchers work for everything. They average 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching and 5.2 rpg at home this season. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 with Bieber starting in an underdog role priced between +125 and +175 this season, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 4-1 in Yankees home games where the total is set at 6.0 or 6.5 this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-05-22 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams have been scoring down the stretch, looking generally disinterested in doing anything other than 'playing out the string'. I expect nothing different in Wednesday's season-finale in Cincinnati. Adrian Sampson has actually been one of the Cubs most reliable starting pitchers this season, checking in with a 3.81 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for his opponent on Wednesday, Graham Ashcraft. He's had a trying rookie campaign in Cincinnati and will be facing the Cubs for the fourth time. On a positive note, he has limited the walks (2.3 per nine innings) and home runs (0.9 per nine innings). With the Reds having dropped each of his last three outings against the Cubs he'll be out for revenge here. While it's had a lot to do with facing disinterested opponents, the two bullpens have been terrific down the stretch with the Cubs relief corps posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last seven games and the Reds 'pen recording a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Josh Winder will get the start for the visiting Twins. The White Sox will be getting their second look at him in less than a week after plating three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against him on September 28th. He didn't give up a home run in that outing but that was an unlikely occurrence as he has been tagged for at least one long ball in four of his last five starts, giving up two in three of those outings. For the season, Winder owns a 4.90 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while yielding 1.5 home runs per nine innings. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 4.07 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while giving up 1.4 home runs per nine innings (not to mention just shy of 10.0 hits per nine frames). The Twins will be getting their third look at the right-hander since September 4th, having scored four earned runs off of him in 10 innings in those two previous contests. Between the two bullpens this season, we've seen a whopping 47 combined blown saves so the potential for late runs is there as well. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-28-22 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen two high-scoring games to open this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday. Dean Kremer will take the ball for the playoff-hungry Orioles. Kremer is coming off a complete game shutout against the Astros - an incredible feat to be sure. However, here he's in a tough spot as he makes his third consecutive start on just four days' rest. Note that prior to tossing that complete game shutout he had allowed seven earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 2/3 innings. The Red Sox will be seeing Kremer for the third time this season and over the course of his career, the right-hander has posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in four starts against Boston. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will counter for Boston. He pitched five shutout innings against the Orioles just a couple of weeks ago. I'm confident we'll see the O's make the necessary adjustments here. Note that when Baltimore previously saw Hill on May 30th, it plated six earned runs in just four innings. Both bullpens are a mess right now. Baltimore's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a 7.25 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. The Red Sox relief corps recorded a 6.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-26-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The 'under' cashed in all three games between these two teams last week but since then the Braves have reeled off three consecutive 'over' results in a series in Philadelphia. You would have to go back to September 16th to find the last time the Nationals posted an 'over', but I look for that to change tonight. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He's been a different pitcher in his last three starts compared to four rocky outings back in April. With that being said, he still owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.33 WHIP at the big league level this season and here the Nationals will be seeing him for the second time in less than a week after scoring one run on four hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings against him last week. Note that Elder allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings at the AAA level this season but has gone three consecutive big league starts without giving up a single long ball. I'm not convinced that will continue. Cory Abbott will counter for Washington. He's been awful this season, posting a 6.09 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 2.1 home runs and 4.85 runs per nine innings. The Braves will be getting their second look at Abbott after plating four runs on six hits including a home run over four innings last week. Abbott didn't strike out a single batter while walking two in that contest. The Nationals bullpen is a concern as well as it has logged just shy of 33 innings over its last eight games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-23-22 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night as the Cubs delivered their third straight victory while handing the Pirates their seventh consecutive defeat. Here, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest as dictated by the poor starting pitching matchup. The book is already out on Cubs rookie Javier Assad and it's not a good one. Assad has been touched up for nine earned runs on 12 hits and eight walks, not to mention three home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of just 13 1/3 innings. While the Pirates bats have been quiet, we know they're capable of outlier performances as they just hung eight runs on the Yankees three nights ago. Bryse Wilson gets another turn in the Buccos rotation out of necessity only. He's been awful this year, posting a 6.72 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Over his last three outings, those numbers rise to 7.67 and 1.67, respectively. To make matters worse, the Cubs will be seeing Wilson for the third time this season having already plated six earned runs in nine innings against him. They also faced him twice last season, scoring six earned runs in eight innings. You get the picture. Even if the starters do manage to pull rabbits out of their hat in this one, we have the potential for late runs with a Pirates bullpen that has recorded a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.09 WHIP over the last seven games and a Cubs 'pen that has posted a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 13 blown saves on the road this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-20-22 | Astros v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as two underrated starters went head-to-head in Luis Garcia and Drew Rasmussen. Here, I think the pendulum swings the other way as we have perhaps two overrated (I use that term in a relative sense) starters in Cristian Javier and Shane McClanahan taking the hill. Note that we haven't seen consecutive meetings between these two teams stay 'under' seven total runs since back in the 2020 postseason. Javier enters this start after tossing six shutout innings last time out but that performance came against the light-hitting Tigers. Prior to that he had given up a home run in three straight starts, walking six in 16 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Rays saw Javier once previously, that coming last season as they chased him after scoring three earned runs in five innings in a 5-4 victory. McClanahan hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts - the first time he's accomplished that feat all season. I'm not convinced he's had his best stuff lately, noting that he hasn't recorded double-digit strikeouts in a start since way back on July 2nd after doing so four times in a 12-start stretch at that time. Note that six of McClanahan's last seven starts have gone 'over' 6.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-16-22 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Royals 3-2 loss in Minnesota last night. The Kansas City bats were quiet once again but I think a change of scenery will serve them well as they head to Fenway Park on Friday. Jon Heasley will take the ball for the visiting Royals. He's had a miserable rookie campaign and things certainly haven't gotten any better down the stretch as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs in 16 innings over his last three outings, yielding four home runs along the way. His last four road starts have resulted in games totalling 23, 13, 10 and 14 runs. Michael Wacha has actually been terrific for the Red Sox this season but I can't help but after stringing together three consecutive quality starts on the road, I think he gets a dose of reality back at home. The 'under' cashed in each of Wacha's first five starts this season but high-scoring games have been the norm since then as the 'over' has gone 8-5-1 over his last 14 starts. The last time he pitched here at Fenway Park back on August 26th we saw 17 total runs in a game against the Rays. The Royals bats have been quiet but they still average 3.8 runs per game away from home this season and I think that will be enough to help this one 'over' the total on Friday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-15-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Royals bats stayed quiet for a second consecutive night. Interestingly, Kansas City has now gone eight games without scoring at least six runs - its second-longest such streak of the season. I feel the Royals are well-positioned to bust out at the plate against Twins starter Dylan Bundy on Thursday. Bundy got rocked for seven earned runs on 12 hits including three home runs against the Guardians last time out. You would have to go all the way back to June 24th to find the last time he lasted at least six innings in a start, illustrating his lack of effectiveness. He checks in allowing a lofty 9.6 hits and 4.83 runs per nine innings this season. Daniel Lynch hasn't been much better for the Royals - in fact, he's been worse. Lynch gives up a whopping 10.5 hits and 5.38 runs per nine innings this season. He's clearly wearing down as we hit the stretch run, having allowed 17 earned runs in just 18 1/3 innings over his last four outings. Neither bullpen instills much confidence as the two relief corps have combined for 39 blown saves this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-05-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Padres just had their lunch handed to them by the Dodgers over the weekend and limp home for a favorable matchup against rookie Ryne Nelson, making his first big league start, and the D'Backs. Nelson hasn't fared well at the AAA level this season, posting a 5.43 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. Behind him is an unreliable D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the Padres relief corps recorded a 7.29 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the same stretch. That unit will be working behind starter Blake Snell on Monday. Snell has turned his season around but still owns a less than impressive 1.32 WHIP and allows north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. The Snakes haven't fared well against Snell in his five career starts against them but they've yet to face him this season. Note that Arizona checks in averaging 4.8 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, compared to its 4.4 rpg season scoring average (entering yesterday's action). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-04-22 | A's v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on the first five innings ‘over’ between Oakland and Baltimore at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
09-02-22 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night in Cincinnati. Kyle Freeland will take the ball for Colorado. He checks in with a 4.50 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season, allowing 5.26 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds will be out for revenge against the left-hander after being held to just one earned run over seven innings against him back in May. Despite the Reds poor showing at the plate in that game, we still saw 11 total runs. Luis Cessa gets the start for Cincinnati. This will be his first home start of the season. I don't expect it to go well, noting that he's been tagged for 1.9 home runs per nine innings and now has to pitch at a hitter-friendly park. Note that Cessa sports a 5.50 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while yielding 5.77 runs per nine innings this season. Neither bullpen has been reliable this season. The Rockies relief corps entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.24 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Reds 'pen owns a 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-30-22 | Mariners v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this non-division matchup sets up as a low-scoring affair on Tuesday as the Mariners hand the ball to impressive rookie George Kirby against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.19 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he allowed just one earned run while striking out nine over seven innings in an eventual 3-1 loss to the Nationals. Note that Kirby owns a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in eight previous road outings this season. Detroit will give Matt Manning another turn in the starting rotation. He's certainly deserving of the spot as he owns a 3.23 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 38 innings of work this season. Manning has allowed only 2.37 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been reasonably effective lately with the Mariners relief corps sporting a collective 3.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games and the Tigers 'pen posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-26-22 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I expect plenty of offense in this Pennsylvania showdown on Friday as the Pirates send Bryse Wilson to the mound against Bailey Falter of the Phillies. Wilson hasn’t been good this season. That may be oversimplifying things but facts are facts. Wilson checks in with a 5.24 FIP And 1.44 WHIP while allowing a whopping 6.55 runs per nine innings. He’s actually coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing three earned runs over seven innings against the Reds. I’m not counting on a repeat performance against a tougher opponent here. Falter has endured a rough rookie campaign, posting a 5.50 FIP and 1.29 WHIP, yielding 5.0 runs per nine innings. Like Wilson, Falter is also coming off one of his best outings of the season, holding the Mets to one earned run over six innings. He still owns a 4.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in four home starts. The bullpens might be an even bigger issue in this matchup. Pittsburgh’s relief corps has recorded a collective 7.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games. The Phillies ‘pen entered last night’s action sporting a collective 5.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-24-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I’m expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the hill against Spenser Watkins of the Orioles on Wednesday. Giolito is having a tough campaign all around, posting a 4.13 FIP and 1.53 WHIP while allowing 5.65 runs per nine innings. Save for his strikeout average of 10.2 per nine innings, Giolito has been awful across the board, allowing 10.4 hits, 1.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. I expect the O’s to take advantage on Wednesday. Watkins has only been marginally better than Giolito this season, recording a 4.34 FIP and 1.33 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine frames. The White Sox couldn’t muster an earned run against him over five innings in their lone previous look at him this season back on June 25th but I’m confident they can get to him here. Entering last night’s action, the White Sox bullpen had posted a collective 7.30 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last seven games while the O’s relief corps checked in with a 4.56 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Save for Tuesday's extra innings affair (even that game totalled only nine runs), this has been a low-scoring series. I anticipate more of the same in Thursday's series-finale. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Dodgers, apparently no worse for wear after taking a line drive off his pitching arm in an outing that was cut short against the Royals last weekend. The left-hander has been terrific for the Dodgers this season, posting a 2.18 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.61 runs per nine innings. Not a lot has been asked of Heaney as he generally works only 4-5 innings per start but that's fine for our purposes as the Dodgers bullpen behind him is terrific, having logged a 2.70 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games, entering last night's action. Also keep in mind, the Brewers have struggled against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging only 3.6 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg). Corbin Burnes will counter for Milwaukee. He's having another fine campagn, recording a 3.05 FIP and 0.92 WHIP while yielding just 2.64 runs per nine innings. While Corbin has struggled in two previous outings against the Dodgers over the course of his career, both of those came in Los Angeles (with one of them coming all the way back in 2019) and he's yet to face them this season. Note that Burnes owns a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home this season and a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in daytime starts. The Brewers bullpen has actually been virtually on par with that of the Dodgers lately, sporting a collective 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven contests, also entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-17-22 | Red Sox v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair between the Red Sox and Pirates at PNC Park. Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will take the ball for the Red Sox. He continues to labor through the 2022 campaign, sporting a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Hill is a disappointing Red Sox bullpen that entered last night’s series-opener having posted a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games. On the road it has converted only 13 saves while blowing 12, again prior to last night’s action. The Pirates will turn to Roansy Contreras on Wednesday. He’s had an up-and-down season, with more downs than ups. Contreras has posted a 4.89 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP, yielding 4.32 runs per nine innings. He’ll be making his first big league start since July 7th and hasn’t necessarily dominated at the minor league level, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at AAA and still struggling with his command, allowing 1.0 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings (he’s given up 1.6 home runs and 4.0 walks per nine innings in 12 MLB appearances this season). Like the Red Sox ‘pen, the Pirates relief corps has struggled, particularly of late as it has recorded a collective 6.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering last night’s action. For the season, the Buccos ‘pen owns a 4.41 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-15-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided defeats on Sunday. I look for both offenses to respond with favorable results on Monday, leading to a high-scoring affair in Toronto. While the Orioles stable of young arms has performed well this season, tonight's starter, Kyle Bradish, has struggled. He checks in sporting a 5.16 FIP and 1.62 WHIP while allowing just shy of 6.6 runs per nine innings. We're not talking about a small sample size either as he has logged more than 60 big league innings this season. To make matters worse, the Blue Jays will be seeing him for the third time this season and the second time in less than a week. They've fared well against him, scoring eight earned runs on 14 hits over 10 1/3 innings previously. While the O's bullpen has been solid for much of the season, it took a hit due to pre-trade deadline dealing and entered yesterday's action with a 4.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yusei Kikuchi experiment hasn't worked out in Toronto this season. He's struggled since joining the club from Seattle, recording a 5.87 FIP and 1.49 WHIP here in 2022. Opponents have reached the left-hander for north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. Note that the O's have been slightly better offensively against left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg. They've tagged Kikuchi for nine earned runs in nine innings in two previous looks at him this season. Meanwhile, the Jays 'pen has been overworked, entering yesterday's contest having logged 28 innings over the last seven games, sporting a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-22 | Dodgers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the Dodgers on the run-line in each of the last two nights but I won't hesitate to go a different direction and back the first five innings 'under' as this interleague series wraps up on Sunday. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for the visiting Dodgers. He probably doesn't get the attention he deserves in a loaded Dodgers starting rotation. Anderson checks in with a 3.33 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing only 2.87 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart on Sunday will be Brady Singer. While he pitches for a bad team, he's held up well, recording a 3.66 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season. Singer is giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we want no part of a Royals bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a 7.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season. Take the first five innings under (10*). | |||||||
08-13-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. With both bullpens entering this series in solid current form, we'll look to play 'over' the first five innings only in this one as the starting pitching matchup should favor the hitters. Marco Gonzales will get the start for the visiting Mariners. He checks in with a 5.12 FIP and 1.39 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The division-rival Rangers have already seen him four times this season and have had considerable success at the dish against him, plating 12 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings. Like the Rangers against Gonzales, the Mariners have seen plenty of Dunning this season. This will be their fourth game against the right-hander, having previously scored seven earned runs off of him in 16 innings. As I mentioned, both bullpens entering this series pitching well (SEA - 2.19 ERA/0.61 WHIP L7 games, TEX - 1.71 ERA/0.95 WHIP L7 games) so we'll only call for a high-scoring start to Saturday's contest. Take the first five innings over (10*). | |||||||
08-11-22 | Guardians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I look for a different story to unfold in Thursday afternoon's series finale in Detroit. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He owns a 4.31 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 5.15 runs per nine innings. The Tigers will be seeing Plesac for the third time this season after knocking him around for four earned runs on 12 hits over just 9 2/3 innings in their first two looks. Rookie Garrett Hill will counter for Detroit. He checks in with a 5.51 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 5.12 runs per nine frames. The Guardians have already seen Hill once and while they didn't fare all that well in that contest (just one earned run on two hits over six innings), I look for improvement here. The Guardians bullpen has been fine lately but the Tigers relief corps has been awful, posting a collective 7.66 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven games. It's not as if Cleveland's 'pen has been untouchable on the road as it has recorded a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-07-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While these two teams are obviously loaded with offensive talent, I’m anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Sunday night’s series-finale in Los Angeles. Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Padres. He’s looking to bounce back from a shaky outing against a Rockies team that has seemingly had his number in recent years. Note that Darvish still owns a terrific 3.27 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday will be left-hander Tyler Anderson of the Dodgers. Anderson should be pleased to be facing a Padres club that has had a tougher time producing runs against southpaw starters this season, averaging just 4.2 runs per game compared to their season scoring average of 4.4 rpg (entering last night’s action). Anderson checks in sporting a 3.36 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while limiting opponents to just 3.04 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have been outstanding lately with the Padres relief corps entering last night’s action with a 1.09 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over its last seven games and the Dodgers logging an even better 0.98 ERA and 0.54 WHIP over that same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-06-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Milwaukee at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We’ll take advantage of a subpar starting pitching matchup not to mention two fading bullpens as we back the ‘over’ in Saturday’s showdown between the Reds and Brewers in Milwaukee. Nick Lodolo will take the ball for Cincinnati. He owns a respectable 3.79 FIP but a disappointing 1.57 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings of work in his rookie season. Opponents have reached the left-hander for 4.7 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Aaron Ashby has posted a 3.75 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while giving up north of 5.1 runs per nine innings. As I mentioned, both bullpens have been anything but airtight lately with the Reds relief corps entering last night’s action sporting a collective 4.42 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last seven games and a 5.22 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season. Milwaukee’s ‘pen entered the series with a 5.09 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-05-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I’m expecting plenty of offense in this game on Friday as the Nationals send Josiah Gray to the mound against Kyle Gibson of the Phillies. Gray enters with an ugly 5.30 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing 4.68 runs per nine innings. As he doesn’t have a tendency to last deep into ball games, we should see plenty of the Nationals bullpen, which checks in with a 5.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Interestingly, Gibson allows an identical 4.68 runs per nine innings to that of Gray. He has posted a 4.43 FIP and 1.23 WHIP on the campaign. Behind Gibson is fading Phillies bullpen that entered last night’s action having recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-04-22 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 102 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Red Sox are coming off a low-scoring series against the Astros and have now seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. Nick Pivetta will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. After a strong stretch earlier this season, the wheels came off and he's never really been able to regain his footing. Pivetta has seen his FIP rise to 4.16 and his WHIP to 1.32 while allowing just under 4.5 runs per nine innings on the campaign. While the Red Sox bullpen has been serviceable, it has by no means been 'lights out', posting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Kris Bubic has seen his season unfold differently than Pivetta's as he got off to a difficult start but has settled down somewhat since. With that being said, his overall numbers are not good as he owns a 5.19 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding north of 6.0 runs per nine frames. The Royals bullpen didn't give up a run yesterday in Chicago but prior to that had recorded a collective 5.14 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over the last seven contests. It has posted a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-31-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Atlanta at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point and I expect more of the same on Sunday. Merrill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs. He has quietly put together a solid 2022 campaign, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing only 3.19 runs per nine innings. Behind Kelly is a suddenly hot D'Backs bullpen that owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games. Braves ace Max Fried has put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, posting a 2.48 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while yielding only 2.8 runs per nine frames. The Braves bullpen has recorded a 1.12 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.40 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-30-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating plenty of offense as the Rangers and Angels continue their series in Anaheim on Saturday. Glenn Otto gets the start for the visiting Rangers. He owns a 5.19 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season, yielding 5.64 runs per nine innings. Command has been a major issue has he has handed out 4.7 walks per nine innings. Chase Silseth hasn't been much better for the Angels. He has recorded a 5.84 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, knocked around for a whopping 10.2 hits per nine innings. Opponents have reached Silseth for 5.84 runs per nine frames. Both bullpens are hittable. The Rangers relief corps has posted a colelctive 4.69 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games while the Halos 'pen owns a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home. The two teams have combined to blow 15 saves away and home, respectively. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-29-22 | A's v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I’m expecting plenty of offense between the A’s and White Sox on Friday as they open a three-game series in Chicago. James Kaprielian has been the weak link in the A’s rotation this season, posting a 5.62 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Behind Kaprielian is an A’s bullpen that I expect to suffer some regression on this road trip following an extended stretch at home. The A’s ‘pen has just 14 saves converted compared to nine blown on the road this season. Veteran Lance Lynn has had an up-and-down return from injury to the White Sox starting rotation. He did pitch well over six innings against the Guardians last time out but I question whether he can follow it up with another quality outing here. Note that Lynn has posted a 4.34 FIP and 1.41 WHIP this season, allowing an ugly average of 7.07 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has been a mess lately, most recently coughing up Wednesday’s game in the ninth inning in Colorado. The Sox relief corps has posted a collective 6.35 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last seven games and hasn’t been much better as a whole at home this season, logging a 5.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-26-22 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the best starting pitching matchups on Tuesday’s board as the Braves hand the ball to standout rookie Spencer Strider against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. We’ll use the ‘first five innings’ to play the ‘under’ in this one. Strider has burst onto the scene with a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.05 FIP and 1.05 WHIP, holding opponents to just under 3.3 runs per nine innings. Here, he’ll have the advantage of facing the Phillies for the first time in his career. Nola is often found in Zack Wheeler’s shadow in the Phillies rotation but he’s been every bit as good as the Philadelphia ace this season. Nola owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.91 WHIP while yielding just 3.2 runs per nine innings. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid a struggling Phillies bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take the first five innings under (10*). | |||||||
07-25-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
07-24-22 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. Our play on the first five innings 'over' in this matchup last night didn't go our way but I won't hesitate to come back with a similar play on Sunday - this time backing the 'over' for the full game as Washington sends Erick Fedde to the hill against Corbin Martin of the D'Backs. Fedde is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a 4.98 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Perhaps Nationals starters are trying to be a little too perfect on the road, noting that their bullpen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP away from home this season. The D'Backs have certainly feasted in Washington pitching in this series, plating 17 runs in two games. Corbin Martin will get another spot start for Arizona. In 14 1/3 innings of work this season, Martin has recorded a 2.42 FIP and 1.47 WHIP but has yielded a whopping 5.65 runs per nine innings. That low FIP has everything to do with the fact that he hasn't allowed a home run at the big league level this season. However, a quick look at his minor league stats shows he posted an ERA north of 5.00 and a 1.33 WHIP while allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings at the AAA level this season. I'm confident the Nats' slumbering bats will wake up against Martin on Sunday. The D'Backs bullpen has managed to convert only seven saves while blowing six at home this season where it has recorded a pedestrian 3.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP (entering last night's action). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Angels offense has been lifeless lately with last night's loss extending its streak of scoring two runs or less to five games. They will face arguably the weakest link in the Braves starting rotation on Sunday though and I believe they can do their part to help this one 'over' the total. The Braves will get the opportunity to tee off on another left-hander, noting that they entered last night's action having gone 23-9 while averaging 5.7 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. Reid Detmers will take the ball for the Angels on Saturday. He hasn't come close to regaining the form that saw him post a no-hitter earlier in the season. Overall, he owns a 4.82 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while yielding 4.11 runs per nine innings. Atlanta will start Ian Anderson. He's labored through the campaign, recording a 4.31 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while giving up a disappointing 4.89 runs per nine innings. After getting handcuffed by Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright over the last two nights, I think the Angels will be happy to see Anderson on the mound on Sunday. He owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home this season. Neither bullpen brings overwhelming form to the table on Sunday. The Angels have just eight converted saves while blowing six on the road this season while it may surprise you to find out that Atlanta has blown 10 saves (while converting 17) at home. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-16-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday night in San Diego. The D'Backs will hand the ball to Tyler Gilbert. While he's pitched well in his last couple of outings, his overall numbers this season still aren't good as he's recorded a 6.43 FIP and 1.26 WHIP while yielding just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Sean Manaea. Oddly enough, the D'Backs will be seeing him for the fourth time already this season. Manaea checks in sporting a 3.99 FIP and 1.22 WHIP while giving up 4.28 runs per nine innings. A bigger concern than Manaea is the Padres bullpen, which entered last night's game with a 7.33 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over its last seven contests. For its part, the D'Backs 'pen has posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-13-22 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a couple of relatively low-scoring games between these two division rivals in yesterday's day-night double-header. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Chicago. He's had a tough season so far, posting a 4.45 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.4 runs per nine innings. Last time out he yielded five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers. Note that he'll be making his second consecutive start on short (four days) rest on Wednesday. It's a similar story for Guardians starter Aaron Civale. He actually pitched well against the lowly Royals in his most recent outing but his overall numbers remain poor this season. Civale checks in sporting a 4.28 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while giving up almost 7.0 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen has held up well lately but is getting into 'overworked' territory, noting that Chicago hasn't had a day off since June 30th and comes off the double-header yesterday. The Guardians 'pen coughed up three runs in last night's game and entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.35 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-11-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
A.L. F5 Innings Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair as two back-of-the-rotation starters take the ball in rookie Adrian Martinez of the A's and Spencer Howard of the Rangers. With that being said, we'll play the 'first five innings' only in this one as I do respect both bullpens, especially given their current form (A's 2.10 ERA and 1.01 WHIP L7 games and Rangers 2.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP L7 games - both entering yesterday's action). Adrian Martinez has made three starts for the A's this season. He's been getting progressively worse it seems as his FIP has risen to 5.90 and his WHIP to 1.40. Perhaps most concerning is the fact that he's been tagged for 2.4 home runs per nine innings, despite not allowing a single long ball in his first big league start. The Mariners and Blue Jays have knocked him around for four home runs over his last two outings and I look for the Rangers to add to that total here. All told, Martinez checks in yielding 6.0 runs per nine innings. Although I do realize we're dealing with a small sample size of just 15 innings, Martinez previously recorded a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP at AAA Las Vegas this season, logging 64 innings. Spencer Howard has worked only 10 2/3 innings for the Rangers this year. With that being said, the numbers aren't good. He checks in with an 8.92 FIP and 1.88 WHIP. While we are likely to see some positive regression to the mean, keep in mind he logged a 4.72 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings split between Philadelphia and Texas last season. For his career he's allowed just shy of 8.0 runs per nine innings in 101 innings of work. While the A's certainly aren't tearing the cover off the ball, they have proven to be a better offensive team on the road than at home this season, averaging 3.8 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 3.2 runs per contest). Take the first five innings over (10*). | |||||||
07-10-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a trio of high-scoring games to open this series but I look for a different story to unfold in Sunday night's series finale. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Yankees. He checks in sporting a 3.40 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing only 3.63 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Sunday night, Nick Pivetta, is coming off a rocky outing last time out but still sports a 3.64 FIP and 1.16 WHIP this season while yielding less than 3.7 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens have performed well lately with the Yankees relief corps having posted a collective 2.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games and the Red Sox 'pen checking in with a 2.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-09-22 | Rays v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The opener of this series featured a terrific pitching matchup but Saturday’s contest will feature two back of the rotation starters in Drew Rasmussen of the Rays and rookie Hunter Greene of the Reds. Rasmussen checks in with a 3.84 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, yielding right around 3.9 runs per nine innings. In other words, he’s likely to give up some runs, even against the lowly Reds (to their credit they do average 5.0 runs per game at home this season). We’ve been picking on the rookie Greene for much of the season and for good reason as he’s generally been awful, recording a 5.67 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while giving up 6.13 runs per nine innings. Behind Greene is a Reds bullpen that owns a 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while blowing six saves and converting only four at home this season (entering last night’s action). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I think the quiet nature of the Rockies bats over the course of a three-game series in Los Angeles may have lulled 'under' bettors into a false sense of security entering the opener of this four-game set in Arizona. We just saw this same starting pitching matchup between Austin Gomber and Dallas Keuchel last week and the rest was an 11-7 Rockies victory. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair here. While the Rockies bats have been slumbering, this should be an ideal breakout spot noting they're actually a .500 team against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game (that's 0.9 rpg higher than their season average). Keuchel has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 5.75 FIP and 2.11 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work split between Chicago (White Sox) and Arizona. Opponents have torched the veteran left-hander to the tune of 9.58 runs per nine innings. Austin Gomber hasn't been much better for the Rockies, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens offer little support in this case as the Colorado 'pen has posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs relief corps owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-07-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Philadelphia at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nationals will inexplicably give Joan Adon another turn in the starting rotation on Thursday, his first outing since coincidentally facing the same Phillies back on June 17th. That start didn’t go all that well for Adon as he was tagged for four earned runs on seven hits over five innings. The right-hander enters Thursday’s start sporting an ugly 5.26 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.27 runs per nine innings this season. Phillies starter Bailey Falter hasn’t been much better, albeit with a smaller sample size. He has recorded a 5.99 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while yielding 6.0 runs per game in 24 innings of work this season. Like Adon, Falter will be making his second start this season against Thursday’s opponent having allowed three earned runs on five hits including two home runs back in June. The presence of the Phillies red hot bullpen is the only thing that would give us some pause with this play, but I think that unit’s recent effectiveness is somewhat negated by the Nats’ awful relief corps which has posted a 6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-05-22 | Cubs v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two N.L. Central rivals yesterday as the Brewers walked it off in a 5-2 extra innings victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the hitters should have plenty of success in this one. Cubs veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks has had an up-and-down season, perhaps with more downs than ups. He owns a 4.75 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.8 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Jason Alexander. He's arguably been slightly worse than Hendricks, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while giving up 4.7 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens have been serviceable lately but are showing some signs of wear with neither team enjoying an off day since June 27th. The two 'pens have worked 32 and 28 2/3 innings, respectively, over the last seven games with the Cubs relief corps having posted a 3.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over that stretch and the Brewers checking in with a 3.45 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take the over (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |